New York Versus Philadelphia Preview
Eastern Conference Second Round
#3 New York (53-29) vs. #7 Philadelphia (45-37)
Season series: Tied, 2-2
Philadelphia can win if…Joel Embiid stays relatively healthy and is a dominant force in the paint at both ends of the court to supplement the perimeter productivity of Tyrese Maxey, Paul George, and V.J. Edgecombe.
The 76ers came back from a 3-1 deficit to defeat the Boston Celtics 4-3 in the first round, marking the first time in franchise history that the 76ers won a series after trailing 3-1, and the first time that the 76ers defeated the Celtics in a playoff series since Julius Erving (29 points, five assists, four rebounds, three steals, and three blocked shots) and Andrew Toney (34 points, six assists) came up big in a 120-106 game seven win in the 1982 Eastern Conference Finals.
Embiid missed the first three games of the first round while he recovered from an emergency appendectomy; the 76ers went 1-2 in the games that he missed, and then went 3-1 the rest of the way. Embiid led the 76ers in scoring (28.0 ppg), rebounding (9.0 rpg) and assists (7.0 apg), and the 76ers would not have won the series without his significant contributions. The Celtics could not defend him in the paint, and he drew double teams that created easy scoring opportunities for his teammates. Embiid had a game-high 34 points and a game-high tying 12 rebounds in the 76ers' 109-100 game seven win. He also had six assists and just one turnover. Embiid producing in the clutch is a bit of a surprise, because he has a 6-7 career playoff series record, including 0-5 in second round series. His career playoff field goal percentage is .458, significantly worse than his career regular season field goal percentage (.500), and his scoring declines similarly from the regular season (27.6 ppg) to the playoffs (25.1 ppg)
Embiid is the 76ers' most dominant player, while Maxey is the team's most consistent and reliable player. During the regular season, Maxey set career highs in scoring (28.3 ppg), assists (6.6 apg), rebounds (4.1 rpg), and steals (1.9 spg) while leading the NBA in minutes (38.0 mpg). He is averaging 40.9 mpg in the playoffs, and he led the league in playoff mpg (44.5) during the 2024 playoffs. Maxey scored 30 points on 11-18 field goal shooting while playing 45 minutes in game seven, and he looked as fresh at the end of the game as he did at the beginning. He led the 76ers with seven assists while also contributing 11 rebounds and committing just one turnover.
V.J. Edgecombe added 23 points, six rebounds, and four assists in game seven, and he averaged 15.1 ppg during the series. Paul George chipped in 13 points in game seven, and he ranked third on the team in scoring (17.4 ppg) during the series while also playing strong defense.
New York will win because...the Knicks have enough size to reasonably contain Embiid without double teaming so often that the 76ers' perimeter players consistently get open shots. The Knicks also have good perimeter defensive players, and they have a new offense with Karl-Anthony Towns operating as the hub while Jalen Brunson works off of the ball more often than he has since joining the Knicks, similar to the way that he played alongside Luka Doncic with the Dallas Mavericks.
The Knicks trailed the Atlanta Hawks 2-1 in the first round before winning the next three games in dominant fashion, culminating in a complete dismantling of the Hawks in game six: the Knicks raced to the biggest halftime lead in NBA playoff history-- 83-36--en route to a 140-89 win. The Knicks led by as much as 61 points, and set franchise records for most points in a playoff game and largest victory margin in a playoff game.
Brunson led the Knicks in scoring (26.3 ppg) and assists (6.2 apg) versus the Hawks, and OG Anunoby ranked second in scoring (21.5 ppg) and third in rebounding (8.7 rpg) while shooting .611 from the field, but an argument could be made that Towns was the most valuable player: he led the Knicks in rebounding (11.3 rpg) and blocked shots (1.7 bpg), ranked second in assists (6.0 apg), and finished third in scoring (18.7 ppg) with shooting splits of .569/.444/.927. Towns, who never had a playoff triple double prior to 2026, had triple doubles in games five (20 points, 10 rebounds, 10 assists) and seven (12 points, 11 rebounds, 10 assists). Towns' previous playoff career-high for assists had been six.
The Knicks are averaging 117.8 ppg in the playoffs, and if they can keep up that pace versus the 76ers then they will wear down and wear out Embiid.
Other things to consider: Prior to this season, the Knicks fired coach Tom Thibodeau after he led the team to the Eastern Conference Finals for the first time since 2000. Owner James Dolan has made it clear that anything less than a championship will not be considered successful or acceptable. There is obviously a lot of pressure on coach Mike Brown and his players to fulfill Dolan's lofty expectations, but the Knicks are certainly capable of at least reaching the NBA Finals; beating the Oklahoma City Thunder--or a team good enough to eliminate the Thunder--will be a daunting task, though.
The Knicks have an excellent defense, and a good offense that improved dramatically in the latter portion of the series versus the Hawks. Their roster is deeper and more well-balanced than the 76ers' roster.
The 76ers received a major break when Jayson Tatum, who led the Celtics in rebounding (10.7 rpg) and assists (6.8 apg) while ranking second in scoring (23.3 ppg) during the series, was a late scratch for game seven because of left knee stiffness. Without Tatum's presence in the paint at both ends of the court, the 76ers outrebounded the Celtics 42-34 after the Celtics outrebounded the 76ers in the first six games of the series. The Knicks lead the playoffs in rebounding differential (+9.0), while the 76ers rank 14th out of 16 playoff teams (-6.6); the 76ers' number is a little deceptive because it includes three games without Embiid, but even with Embiid in the lineup the Knicks should--and must--win the rebounding battle.
In game seven, the Celtics shot 13-49 (.265) from three point range, and repeatedly failed to attack Embiid defensively. Embiid has never been in peak physical condition, and despite his strong performance in the latter part of this series it was evident that he was fatigued. He also was often hobbling on unsteady legs, and the Celtics should have used his vulnerability to their advantage by isolating him in screen/roll actions and then forcing him to slide his feet; this would have further fatigued him, and possibly put him in foul trouble.The Knicks should attack Embiid and make him work on defense--and they have the personnel to do that both in the direct center to center matchup with Towns or backup center Mitchell Robinson, and on switches if they can force Embiid to guard Brunson.
New York will defeat Philadelphia in six games.
Labels: Jalen Brunson, Joel Embiid, Karl-Anthony Towns, New York Knicks, OG Anunoby, Paul George, Philadelphia 76ers, Tyrese Maxey
posted by David Friedman @ 2:16 PM
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