2025-26 NBA Playoff Predictions
For the sixth consecutive season, the NBA used a Play-In Tournament to determine the seventh and eighth seeds in each conference (the NBA also had a Western Conference Play-In Game during the 2020 "bubble" in Orlando). The Philadelphia 76ers and the Orlando Magic claimed the final two Eastern Conference playoff spots, while the Portland Trail Blazers and the Phoenix Suns earned the final two Western Conference playoff spots. Prior to the 2026 Play-In Tournament, I picked Orlando, Charlotte, Phoenix, and the L.A. Clippers to emerge as qualifiers, so my record for correctly picking the Play-In Tournament qualifiers is 3-1 in 2021, 3-1 in 2022, 2-2 in 2023, 3-1 in 2024, 3-1 in 2025, and 2-2 in 2026.
Before explaining my playoff predictions, here is a recap of some of the most significant stories from the 2025-2026 NBA season.
After a dominating 2024-25 regular season that culminated in winning the NBA championship, the Oklahoma City Thunder started their title defense in commanding fashion, bursting out of the gates 8-0 before tying the all-time NBA record for best 25 game start (24-1, first accomplished by the 2015-16 Golden State Warriors). The Thunder had four losses in a six game stretch in December--including back to back defeats by the San Antonio Spurs--but closed the season strongly with 19 wins in a 20 game span before resting their key players in the final two games after wrapping up the number one overall seed in the playoffs. It would have been very difficult to match their historic 2025 standards--including a 68-14 regular season record (tied for sixth-seventh best all-time) with the best point differential in NBA history (12.87 ppg)--but the Thunder's 2025-26 season is very impressive: 64-18 record with a 11.15 ppg point differential (eighth best all-time).
The Thunder's season is even more impressive considering that each of their top four players in minutes played per game participated in 69 games or less, with 2025 All-Star Jalen Williams appearing in just 33 games. Only two Thunder players played in at least 70 games: Cason Wallace (77 games, 58 starts) and Isaiah Joe (71 games, nine starts).
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander--who won the 2025 regular season MVP, the 2025 Magic Johnson Western Conference Finals MVP, and the 2025 Bill Russell NBA Finals MVP--had another sensational all-around season, leading the team in scoring (31.1 ppg, second in the league) and assists (career-high 6.6 apg) while leading the league in free throws made per game (7.9) for the third straight season. His shooting splits (.553/.386/.879) include a career-high field goal percentage, and he continues to be an excellent defensive player.
The Thunder's strengths are Gilgeous-Alexander's all-around brilliance supported by tremendous depth, collective commitment to playing strong team defense, and a collective unselfish attitude at both ends of the court. The Thunder are not quite as dominant in the possession game as they were in 2025 when they led the league in steals, turnovers forced, fewest steals allowed, and fewest turnovers committed, but they still ranked second, second, fourth, and second respectively in those categories. The Thunder are not a huge team, so they can be bothered by size and they are not an elite rebounding squad (ranking 12th in the league), but if they are even somewhat healthy it is difficult to picture them losing a seven game series.
Victor Wembanyama has been the centerpiece of a talented and deep San Antonio Spurs squad that went 4-1 versus the Thunder during the regular season. I did not foresee the Spurs being this good this fast, but in my 2025-26 Western Conference Preview I made it clear that the Spurs should be expected to make the playoffs (which was not a universally held belief prior to this season):
There are no more excuses for missing the playoffs. The Spurs have a generational talent--the 2024 NBA Rookie of the Year Victor Wembanyama--plus they have veteran former All-Star guard De'Aaron Fox, and they also have 2025 NBA Rookie of the Year Stephon Castle. I am skeptical about the long term prospects of teams that tanked--and I am not convinced that the Spurs are on a championship track--but the Spurs have too much talent to not at least qualify for the playoffs.
The Spurs ranked second in the league in rebounding, third in scoring, fourth in defensive field goal percentage, sixth in field goal percentage, and eighth in points allowed. Wembanyama's strong imprint is felt in all of those categories, as he led the team in scoring (career-high 25.0 ppg), rebounding (career-high 11.5 rpg, fourth in the league), and blocked shots (3.1 bpg, earning his third shot blocking title in three NBA seasons) while shooting a career-high .512 from the field. De'Aaron Fox earned his second career All-Star selection (his first as a Spur) while averaging 18.6 ppg and 6.2 apg. Stephon Castle improved his numbers across the board to 16.7 ppg, a team-high 7.4 apg (sixth in the league), 5.3 rpg, 1.1 spg, and .471 FG%.
The Spurs have all of the necessary ingredients for a championship team except for playoff experience. Harrison Barnes (9.9 ppg, 52 starts in 77 games) started for the 2015 NBA champion Golden State Warriors, but he is the Spurs' only rotation player who has significant postseason experience.
Switching to the Eastern Conference, the Detroit Pistons continued their remarkable resurgence under Coach J.B. Bickerstaff, climbing from 14 wins (under Monty Williams) in 2023-24 to 44 wins in Bickerstaff's first Detroit season to pacing the Eastern Conference with 60 wins this season. Cade Cunningham--who led the team in scoring (23.9 ppg) and assists (9.9 apg)--has emerged as an All-NBA Team caliber player during the past two seasons, and fourth year player Jalen Durden earned his first All-Star selection while averaging 19.5 ppg and 10.5 rpg (sixth in the league). Bickerstaff has transformed the Pistons into a physical team that is elite at both ends of the court, ranking third in the league in defensive field goal percentage, third in points allowed, third in field goal percentage, eighth in rebounding, and eighth in scoring.
This season was expected to be a so-called "gap year" for the Boston Celtics in the wake of Jayson Tatum's torn right Achilles suffered during the 2025 playoffs followed by the exodus of key contributors Kristaps Porzingis (19.5 ppg, 6.8 rpg, 1.5 bpg in the 2024-25 regular season), Jrue Holiday (11.1 ppg, 4.3 rpg, 3.9 apg in 2024-25), Al Horford (9.0 ppg, 6.2 rpg in 2024-25), and Luke Kornet (6.0 ppg, 5.3 rpg in 2024-25). The Celtics ranked eighth in the NBA in rebounding during the 2024-25 season; that standard seemed difficult to match sans Tatum, Porzingis, Horford, and Kornet, who ranked first, second, third, and fifth respectively on the team in rebounding--but the Celtics ranked third in rebounding this season. Tatum averaging 10.0 rpg during his 16 game return helped, but six other Celtics each averaged at least 4 rpg, with starting center Neemias Queta averaging 8.4 rpg and leading the squad in total rebounds (636). Jaylen Brown had a high volume season, leading the league in field goals made (736), field goals attempted (1543), and turnovers (259) while setting career highs in scoring (28.7 ppg), rebounding (6.9 rpg), and assists (5.1 apg) to earn his fourth straight All-Star selection (and fifth selection overall).
Brown's increased production provides a nice segue to the MVP conversation. Brown deserves to receive some top five MVP votes and should be a lock for the All-NBA Team, but he should not receive any first place MVP votes. The MVP race is rarely as wide open as media members suggest it to be; in most seasons, the five All-NBA First Team caliber players are a cut above everyone else, and often there are two or three of those players who separate themselves even further. This season, there are three players who should combine to receive all of the first place votes in MVP balloting: Nikola Jokic (the MVP winner in 2021, 2022, and 2024), Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (the 2025 MVP), and Victor Wembanyama.
It is unfortunate that media-driven narratives appear to play a large role in the voting process, but that is the best explanation for how Allen Iverson, Steve Nash, Derrick Rose, and James Harden each won a regular season MVP (Nash won two!) while Pantheon members Shaquille O'Neal and Kobe Bryant only won one regular season MVP each (but O'Neal earned three NBA Finals MVPs and Bryant earned two NBA Finals MVPs). I have consistently insisted that the MVP should be selected based on skill set evaluations and not narratives or "advanced basketball statistics." The only exception is when there is a dominant player who does not have an all-around skill set but is nevertheless clearly the league's best player. Shaquille O'Neal is the quintessential example of such a player; he was a poor free throw shooter who was only intermittently interested in playing defense, but he was such a dominant scorer and rebounder that he was the NBA's best player during his prime.There has been a lot of groaning and grumbling about the NBA rule that stipulates that a player must participate in at least 65 regular season games to be eligible for most awards; to no small extent, this complaining is emblematic of much of what is going wrong with our society: there is an expectation--a sense of unwarranted entitlement, to be precise--that one should be paid handsomely and receive award recognition despite putting forth minimal effort. The NBA traditionally did not give awards to players who missed a substantial number of games, and there is nothing wrong with formalizing such rules in an era when so many people have lost respect for tradition and are looking for loopholes/excuses.
The NBA and NBPA jointly agreed to provide "extraordinary circumstances" exceptions for Luka Doncic and Cade Cunningham so that both players will be eligible for awards. Prior to that announcement, when people talked about Doncic and Cunningham regarding the 65 game rule, emphasis was placed on their late season injuries without pointing out that if both players had not missed so many games throughout the season then their late season injuries would not have rendered them ineligible for postseason awards. I'll say this slowly so everyone can follow: the w-h-o-l-e season counts--games in November, games in December, and games in every other month all matter, and players are being paid huge guaranteed salaries to actively participate in as many games as possible. Such participation used to be the norm, but now must be enforced--and the 65 game rule is part of the current Collective Bargaining Agreement, meaning that the players accepted this requirement.
Jokic played in 65 games this season, which is his lowest number since he played in 55 games and 59 games in his first two seasons. Last season, Jokic became the only player other than Wilt Chamberlain to rank in the top three in the NBA in scoring, rebounding, and assists in the same season while also becoming the first center and third player to average a triple double in a season--and this season Jokic was even better, leading the league in rebounding (12.9 rpg) and assists (career-high 10.7 apg) while ranking eighth in scoring (27.7 ppg) with shooting splits of .569/.380/.830. He is not a lockdown individual defender, but he led the league in defensive rebounding (9.9 defensive rebounds per game) while also averaging 1.4 spg and .8 bpg. Jokic has finished first or second in the MVP voting in each of the past five seasons, but a case could be made that he is underrated. Jokic has averaged at least 24.5 ppg, at least 10.8 rpg and at least 7.9 apg for six straight seasons while never shooting worse than .566 from the field; no player in pro basketball history has matched each of those thresholds for a six season span. Moreover, the team numbers show that during that period the Nuggets performed at an elite level when Jokic is on the court and resembled a Draft Lottery team when he is off of the court; in other words, he is not just stuffing the stat sheet individually but he is productive in ways that help his team win.
This is the fourth straight season that Shai Gilgeous-Alexander has performed at an MVP level, and in the previous three seasons he finished fifth, second, and first in the balloting. He averaged at least 30.1 ppg and at least 5.5 apg while shooting at least .510 from the field in each of those four seasons. Gilgeous-Alexander combines the elite midrange shooting touch of George Gervin with the ability to slash to the hoop, draw fouls, and dish to open teammates. He is also an excellent defensive player. There is nothing negative to say about him, and no reason that he should not be selected as MVP--except for the inconvenient fact that Jokic is even more productive and efficient.
Third year pro Victor Wembanyama has progressed rapidly in many areas: he is stronger, his shot selection is vastly improved, and he has learned how to impose his will on opposing teams (which is a subtler and more valuable skill than just accumulating gaudy individual numbers). This season, he set career highs in scoring (25.0 ppg), rebounding (11.5 rpg, fourth in the league), and field goal percentage (.512) while leading the league in blocked shots for the third straight season, a feat last accomplished by Marcus Camby (2006-08) and Dikembe Mutombo (1994-96). His Spurs limped to 22 wins in his rookie season, jogged to 34 wins in year two, and sprinted to 62 wins this season. Wembanyama would benefit from adding some more lower body strength, but he has no skill set weaknesses. He is an MVP caliber player--but Jokic is a better player who had an even better season. I rank Wembanyama behind Gilgeous-Alexander because Gilgeous-Alexander has already proven (1) he can sustain MVP caliber play for multiple seasons and (2) he can sustain MVP caliber play during a deep playoff run. One might argue that those two broad contextual factors are not relevant for selecting the MVP for this particular season but I disagree: in a close race, all factors have heightened importance and unless/until Wembanyama either laps the field of MVP candidates or leads his team on a deep playoff run I would select proven players Jokic and Gilgeous-Alexander ahead of him. Put another way, you have to beat the champ to be the champ. We know that what Jokic and Gilgeous-Alexander are doing is sustainable both year to year and in the playoffs, but we just assume that what Wembanyama is doing is sustainable.
I will share a few brief thoughts about three other players who have been mentioned as MVP candidates.
Doncic should not come close to the top three in the balloting. Doncic is a wunderkind on offense but too often he is missing in action on defense. His incessant whining to officials resulted in him accumulating 16 technical fouls, leading to an automatic one game suspension.
Jaylen Brown had a career year in terms of individual statistics, but the surprising Boston Celtics often performed just as well or even better when he did not play. He is an All-NBA First Team caliber player, but he is not as great as the top three MVP candidates.
Cade Cunningham is an elite scorer/playmaker who also plays good defense, but he is not more skillful or impactful than Jokic, Gilgeous-Alexander, or Wembanyama.
A review of the 2025-26 season would not be complete without mentioning tanking, which has become so widespread that up to 10 of the league's 30 teams are actively losing on purpose. This has major implications for ticket-buying fans, media sponsors, gamblers, and the league's statistical records, which have been permanently skewed, most notably when Bam Adebayo scored 83 points versus the Washington "Wheez-hards." This trampling of the sport's record book matters in terms of historical rankings: Jokic, Gilgeous-Alexander, Wembanyama and other players have set various records, but how seriously should we take those numbers when a third of the league's teams are actively trying to lose?
Here are my first round predictions:
Eastern Conference
#1 Detroit (60-22) versus #8 Orlando (45-37)
The Pistons have led the Eastern Conference standings since November 7, 2025. They are stout offensively and defensively, and the only skill set question about the team is three point shooting; the Pistons ranked 17th in the NBA in three point field goal percentage and 28th in three point field goals made.
The primary concerns for the Pistons relate to the health of Cade Cunningham (23.9 ppg, 9.9 apg, 5.5 rpg)--who is recovering from a collapsed lung--and their lack of significant collective playoff experience. Cunningham missed 11 games before returning for the final three games. The Pistons won all three games after Cunningham returned--including a 118-100 win versus Charlotte--even though Cunningham scored 14 points or less in each game.
The Pistons do not need a full healthy Cunningham or a plethora of playoff experience to beat the Magic. In addition to Cunningham, the Pistons have first-time All-Star Jalen Durden (19.5 ppg, 10.5 rpg), reliable veteran small forward Tobias Harris (13.3 ppg), three point sniper Duncan Robinson (12.2 ppg, 220 3FGM), enforcer Isaiah Stewart (10.0 ppg, 5.0 rpg, 1.6 bpg), and defensive stopper Ausur Thompson (9.9 ppg, league-leading 2.0 spg).
It must be emphasized that Orlando's 121-90 evisceration of the Charlotte Hornets in the Play-In Tournament highlighted much of what is wrong with the modern NBA; the lower seeded teams in the playoff picture are lower seeded for good reasons: they are flawed and they are inconsistent. The Hornets looked great in their Play-In Tournament game win versus the Miami Heat and then, as Amazon Prime's Stan Van Gundy bluntly noted during Friday night's broadcast, the Hornets played like they did not even want to be on the court versus Orlando. Orlando looked lethargic against Philadelphia and then played very hard versus Charlotte.
Don't make the mistake of believing that Orlando routing Charlotte will have anything to do with the Detroit-Orlando series. Detroit is not going to be pushed around by Orlando, and Detroit is certainly not going to quit the way that Charlotte did.
We often hear that some of these lower seeded teams are "teams no one wants to face in the first round," but what I wrote about this notion in 2023 is still true today: "I say it every season, and I will say it again this season: if I were a coach or player, I would want to face most so-called teams no one wants to face. I cannot recall such a team ever doing much damage in the playoffs." The NBA should not need a Play-In Tournament, but the NBA created it to generate more TV revenue and more box office revenue while also trying to disincentivize tanking (which did not work). The top eight teams in each conference should make the playoffs, all 30 teams should have equal odds in the Draft Lottery, no team should be permitted to pick first overall in back to back years, and the bottom three teams in the standings should be banned from receiving the number one overall pick; that is how the NBA can make the regular season more competitive while also not only eliminating any incentive to tank but actually incentivizing the bottom three teams to fight to get out of the basement.
The Pistons split the season series with Orlando, 2-2--but Orlando's most recent win came against a Detroit team sans Cunningham and Harris. The Magic fumbled and stumbled their way through the regular season, and the focused Pistons will make short work of them.
Detroit will win in five games
#2 Boston (56-26) versus #7 Philadelphia (45-37)
In retrospect, it is clear that most commentators vastly underrated Boston's overall talent. I cannot speak to what other commentators missed, but I could not picture the Celtics effectively replacing Jayson Tatum--who was certain to miss most if not all of the season--nor could I see how they could replace Jrue Holiday, Kristaps Porzingis, Al Horford, and Luke Kornet. That quintet provided a lot of size, rebounding, and veteran presence. I expected Jaylen Brown to have a career year (as discussed above) but did not think that this would be nearly enough for the Celtics to be a contending team.
The reality is that fifth year center Neemias Queta proved to be a very effective starter, anchoring the paint with 10.2 ppg, a team-high 8.4 rpg, a team high .653 FG%, and a team-high 1.3 bpg. Payton Pritchard started 50 of his 79 games, setting career highs in scoring (17.0 ppg), assists (5.2 apg), and rebounding (3.9 rpg). Derrick White inexplicably lost his shooting stroke--the career .438 field goal shooter shot just .394 from the field--but he still averaged 16.5 ppg in addition to contributing his usual excellent all-around floor game (5.4 apg, 4.4 rpg, 1.3 bpg, 1.1 spg). Midseason acquisition Nikola Vucevic (acquired from the Chicago Bulls for Anfernee Simons) added 9.7 ppg and 6.6 rpg in 16 games with the Celtics.
Tatum averaged 21.8 ppg, 10.0 rpg, and 5.3 apg in 16 games after returning to action late in the season. He shot just .411 from the field--down from his career average of .458--but he scored at least 23 points in seven straight games before sitting out the last two games of the season. His size, rebounding, defense, and playmaking are invaluable, and if he finds his shooting touch during the playoffs then the Celtics will be very difficult for any team to beat in a seven game series.
The 76ers have not "tanked to the top," and picking against the 76ers to advance past the second round has been a safe bet since 2001. Even if Joel Embiid (who is recovering from a recent appendectomy) were at full strength the 76ers would not be much of a threat to the Celtics. Without Embiid, the 76ers will be fortunate to win a game. Tyrese Maxey averaged a career-high 28.3 ppg and led the league in minutes played (38.0 mpg), but even if he averages more than 30 ppg in this series that will not be enough to beat the Celtics four times.
Boston will win in five games.
#3 New York (53-29) versus #6 Atlanta (46-36)
The Knicks under coach Mike Brown won two more games than they did last season under coach Tom Thiboedeau and they had their best regular season record since they went 54-28 in 2012-13, but their season will be judged as a failure unless they reach the NBA Finals after losing to Indiana in the 2025 Eastern Conference Finals.
Statistically, the Knicks improved more than their record suggests: they ranked fifth in defensive field goal percentage (compared to 25th last season), fifth in points allowed (ninth last season), 11th in field goal percentage (fifth last season), 10th in points scored (ninth last season), and seventh in rebounds (24th last season). In short, their defense and rebounding are significantly better, and their offense is still good. One of the problems with basketball statistics now is that so many teams are tanking that the numbers can be a bit skewed. Can the Knicks score and defend at a high enough level to win three playoff series and advance to the NBA Finals? It can simultaneously be true that the Knicks improved and that they are still not good enough to reach the NBA Finals because other teams (most notably Detroit and Boston) improved even more.
Jalen Brunson's numbers this season (26.0 ppg, 6.8 apg) are nearly identical with his numbers from last season (26.0 ppg, 7.3 apg), but his field goal percentage dipped from .488 to .467 and his three point field goal percentage dropped from .383 to .369, continuing a pattern of declining long range shooting since he shot a career-high .416 from beyond the arc in 2022-23. Brunson has averaged at least 27.8 ppg in each of his three playoff appearances as a Knick, and the Knicks won at least one playoff series each year. The last time the Knicks won at least one playoff series in three consecutive years was 1998-2000, the end portion of a nine year streak of reaching at least the second round of the playoffs.
Karl-Anthony Towns is an easy target for criticism: he commits silly fouls, is often out of position on defense, and seems to be chronically allergic to posting up smaller players. However, he is also an efficient and productive player. He was not quite as efficient or productive as he was last season, but most teams would be elated to have a center averaging 20.1 ppg, 11.9 rpg (second in the NBA), and 3.0 apg with shooting splits of .501/.368/.858.
OG Anunoby is a defensive force who provides timely scoring (16.7 ppg) and shotmaking (.386 3FG%). Mikal Bridges plays in the shadow of the boatload of draft capital that the Knicks gave up to acquire him, but he is a productive and dependable player who once again played in all 82 games. Josh Hart (12.0 ppg, 7.4 rpg, 4.8 apg) is a Swiss Army knife, and Mitchell Robinson provides strong paint presence at both ends of the court.
The Atlanta Hawks accomplished addition by subtraction when they shipped Trae Young to the Washington Wizards during the season. With Young as the team's centerpiece, the Hawks had missed the playoffs two years in a row and had not advanced past the first round of the playoffs since the COVID-19 shortened 2020-21 season. In the past three seasons, the Hawks went 60-80 (.429 winning percentage) with Young and 33-29 (.532 winning percentage) without him. With Young, the Hawks were a fast-paced team that played no defense. Without Young, the Hawks still play fast but they also defend. This season, the Hawks ranked 18th in defensive field goal percentage (compared to 28th last season), 18th in points allowed (27th last season), 13th in field goal percentage (14th last season), sixth in points scored (fifth last season), and 18th in rebounds (14th last season).
First-time All-Star Jalen Johnson blossomed without Young monopolizing the ball, setting career highs in scoring (22.5 ppg), rebounding (10.3 rpg), and assists (7.9 apg) while leading the team in all three categories. Nickeil Alexander-Walker (20.8 ppg) impacts the game at both ends of the court, and CJ McCollum (acquired in the Young deal) provides veteran leadership plus timely scoring (18.7 ppg in 41 games with the Hawks). Dyson Daniels (11.9 ppg, 6.8 rpg, 5.9 apg) is the Hawks' version of Josh Hart. Other than McCollum, the Hawks have a young nucleus, so their future looks bright. They are athletic enough to pose some challenges for the Knicks, but not seasoned enough to beat the Knicks in a seven game series.
New York will win in six games.
#4 Cleveland (52-30) versus #5 Toronto (46-36)
In February 2026, the Cavaliers traded Darius Garland--a 26 year old point guard who has made the All-Star team twice--for 36 year old James Harden, whose elimination game resume looked awful in 2022 and got even worse in 2023, 2024, and 2025. What could go wrong with relying on Harden to help your team win a championship? Just ask fans in Houston, Brooklyn, Philadelphia, or L.A., and they will tell you in painstaking detail about the bricked three pointers, the lackadaisical turnovers, the not getting back on defense, and the blowout losses in elimination games. After the Cavaliers acquired Harden, I explained that they had sealed their postseason fate:
It is not logical for the Cavaliers to assume, believe, or hope that acquiring Harden improves their chances of advancing past the second round of the playoffs for the first time since 2018. I can write the template for the Cavaliers' 2026 elimination game loss now, and after the game I can fill in the blanks around the words "James Harden disappeared" and "James Harden scored just xxx second half points."
The Cavaliers raced to an Eastern Conference-best 64-18 record two years ago, but something was off from the start this season, and they were just 15-14 on December 19 after back to back losses to the Chicago Bulls. Donovan Mitchell (27.9 ppg, 5.7 apg, 4.5 rpg) had another All-NBA First Team caliber season, but Evan Mobley (18.0 ppg, 9.2 rpg) took a step back, Garland could not stay healthy before he was traded, and as a collective unit the Cavaliers seemed less focused and less tough both mentally and physically. The team's statistics in key areas reflect slippage across the board: the Cavaliers ranked eighth in defensive field goal percentage (compared to third last season), 15th in points allowed (12th last season), eighth in field goal percentage (second last season), fourth in points scored (first last season), and 11th in rebounds (sixth last season). The Cavaliers are still a very good team, but at no time this season did they look like a championship contender, and that does not figure to change in the playoffs.
The Raptors improved from 30 wins to 46 wins as Brandon Ingram excelled in his first season in Toronto, leading the team in scoring (21.5 ppg) while playing in 77 games (his most since he played in 79 games as a rookie in 2016-17) and earning his first All-Star selection since 2020. Ingram's career playoff FG% is .434 and this is just his third postseason appearance in his 10 year career, so his statistical profile does not indicate that he is good enough to be the best player on a team that advances past the first round. Scottie Barnes (18.1 ppg, 7.5 rpg, 5.9 apg) earned his second All-Star appearance in the past three years while playing in a career-high 80 games. With their two best players playing almost every game, the Raptors feasted on the league's tanking teams but did not have much success against the better teams--except for the Cavaliers, who they beat three times without suffering a loss. However, all three wins happened prior to November 25; the Cavaliers may not be ready for prime time, but they are playing better now than they were in November, which is not true of the Raptors, who lost their last three games versus 2026 playoff teams by double digit margins.
I don't trust any team with James Harden as the first or second option to beat a contending team in the playoffs, but the Raptors are not a contending team.
Cleveland will win in six games.
Western Conference
#1 Oklahoma City (64-18) versus #8 Phoenix (45-37)
The Thunder earned the Western Conference's number one seed for the third straight year, becoming just the sixth team since 1984 (when the NBA playoffs expanded to the current 16 team format) to finish first in either conference for at least three straight seasons. The previous five such teams--Boston Celtics (1984-88), L.A. Lakers (1984-90), Chicago Bulls (1996-98), L.A. Lakers (2008-10), and Golden State Warriors (2015-17)--each won multiple NBA titles. If the Thunder win the 2026 NBA title then they will be the first squad to win back to back titles while posting the NBA's best record in both seasons since the Chicago Bulls won the 1996 and 1997 NBA titles. The 1987 and 1988 L.A. Lakers are the only other team to pull off that feat since the 1976 ABA-NBA merger.
As discussed earlier in this article, the Thunder were not quite as dominant this season as they were last season, but they also suffered more injuries this season; most notably, 2025 All-Star Jalen Williams averaged 17.1 ppg in just 33 games after scoring 21.6 ppg in 69 games last season. Despite the shifting lineups and missing pieces, the Thunder excelled because the core elements of how they play are sustainable and travel well: they protect the ball, they unselfishly hunt the best shot for the team, and they play relentless pressure defense--and if the game is close at the end then they lean on one of the best, most efficient closers in today's NBA: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, who swept the 2025 MVP awards (regular season, Western Conference Finals, NBA Finals).
The Phoenix Suns were one of the pleasantly surprising teams in the NBA this season, but they do not have enough offensive firepower or defensive tenacity to threaten the Thunder in a seven game series; they ranked 28th in the NBA in field goal percentage and 15th in defensive field goal percentage, and that is just not going to cut it against a Thunder team that not only ranks fifth and first respectively in those categories but that also generates extra possessions by protecting the ball on offense and stealing the ball on defense.
Oklahoma City will win in four games.
#2 San Antonio (62-20) versus #7 Portland (42-40)
As mentioned earlier in this article, MVP candidate Victor Wembanyama has elevated his game and transformed the Spurs into a powerful team at both ends of the court. San Antonio jumped from being a 34 win Draft Lottery team to a 62 win title contender in one year. The Spurs have a deep roster of talented young players (plus veteran Harrison Barnes), but Wembanyama's all-around brilliance is what lifts the Spurs from good to great. The Spurs' next challenge is to continue to be great under the playoff spotlight.
The Trail Blazers overcame the loss of coach Chauncey Billups--who was placed on leave by the NBA after being implicated in a federal investigation of illegal gambling--to earn their first playoff berth since 2021. Rookie coach Tiago Splitter pushed the right buttons and set the right tone, and sixth year pro Deni Avdija earned his first All-Star selection while averaging a career-high 24.2 ppg, 6.9 rpg, and a career-high 6.7 apg. Avdija's statistical profile and playing style are reminiscent of Luka Doncic: Avdija's first preference is to attack the paint to score, draw fouls, or make kick out passes to open shooters, but Avdija is a good enough shooter to keep defenses honest.
It will be interesting to see the Spurs face a legit contender in a seven game series, but Portland is not that team.
San Antonio will win in six games.
#3 Denver (54-28) versus #6 Minnesota (49-33)
As noted earlier in this article, Nikola Jokic is the NBA's best player and he should win the 2026 regular season MVP. With Jokic running the offense, the Nuggets led the league in scoring while ranking second in field goal percentage. This season is the first time that Jokic played alongside a current All-Star: Jamal Murray set career highs in scoring (25.4 ppg) and assists (7.1 apg) while playing in 75 games, his most games played since he played in 75 in the 2018-19 season. The next four players in the rotation (based on mpg)--Christian Braun, Cameron Johnson, Peyton Watson, and Aaron Gordon--each played in 54 games or less this season. The Nuggets went 18-5 (a 64 win pace for an 82 game season) with their preferred starting lineup of Jokic, Murray, Gordon, Braun, and Johnson. The numbers suggest that a healthy Denver team is as good as any team in the NBA--even the Thunder.
This playoff matchup has some interesting recent history. The Nuggets beat the Timberwolves 4-1 in the first round of the 2023 playoffs en route to capturing the franchise's first NBA title. The Timberwolves avenged that defeat by taking out the Nuggets 4-3 in the second round of the 2024 playoffs to make their first trip to the Western Conference Finals since 2004. The Timberwolves returned to the Western Conference Finals in 2025, while the Nuggets lost 4-3 in the first round to the eventual NBA champion Oklahoma City Thunder.
Two key players from the 2023 Timberwolves are no longer on the roster: Karl-Anthony Towns and Nickeil Alexander-Walker have been replaced by Julius Randle and Donte DiVincenzo. The Nuggets have undergone more significant roster changes since 2023, with Michael Porter Jr, Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, and Reggie Jackson being replaced by Cameron Johnson, Peyton Watson, and Tim Hardaway Jr.
The Nuggets' win totals since 2023 are 53, 57, 50, and 54, while the Timberwolves' win totals during that period are 42, 56, 49, and 49. The main difference for the Timberwolves since 2024 is that their defense has gotten worse: the 2024 Timberwolves led the NBA in defensive field goal percentage and points allowed but they have ranked seventh in defensive field goal percentage each of the past two seasons, and they slipped to fifth and then 12th in points allowed. The Timberwolves rank higher in points scored now (ninth this season compared to 18th in 2024), but their field goal percentage rank is about the same (10th in 2024, ninth this season).
The Timberwolves beat the Nuggets in 2023 because their size, physicality, and defense posed problems that the Nuggets did not solve. Since that time, the Nuggets have retooled and are now deeper and more talented, while the Timberwolves have become smaller, less physical, and less imposing defensively.
In recent years, the Timberwolves have raised their level of play during the playoffs, so I don't expect this series to be easy, but if the Nuggets are healthy then I expect them to prevail.
Denver will win in six games.
#4 L.A. Lakers (53-29) versus #5 Houston Rockets (52-30)
All season, I have been preparing to write an in depth Lakers' playoff preview explaining why this team is not as good as their record suggests and why the Lakers will not advance past the second round--but the injuries to Luka Doncic (grade two left hamstring strain) and Austin Reaves (grade two left oblique strain) made that analysis irrelevant: the Lakers' first and second offensive options are unlikely to play in this first round series, which means the Lakers have little realistic chance to advance. Doncic won his second scoring title (33.5 ppg) while also averaging 7.7 rpg and leading the team in assists (8.3 apg). Reaves set career highs in scoring (23.3 ppg) and rebounding (4.7 rpg) while averaging 5.5 apg. Neither player contributes much defensively, but their scoring and playmaking helped the Lakers lead the league in field goal percentage. There is no way to make up for that much missing offensive firepower.
LeBron James had an excellent season by regular human standards and a historic season by 41 year old human standards, averaging 20.9 ppg, 7.2 apg, 6.1 rpg, and 1.2 spg while shooting .515 from the field. This was his worst season since he averaged 20.9 ppg on .417 field goal shooting as a rookie in 2003-04 (!), but those numbers would be a career year for most NBA players. James is no longer a consistently good defensive player, and he does not appear to be able to carry a team for extended periods like he could during his prime years, but he is still a very good NBA player, and it could be argued that he is the best third option player in the NBA.
The Rockets acquired Kevin Durant to boost their balky offense and shaky late game offensive execution, but the results have been mixed at best. The Rockets posted a 52-30 record in 2024-25 before signing Durant, and they posted a 52-30 record this season with Durant. The Rockets ranked 21st in the league in field goal percentage, 13th in points scored, and 22nd in three point field goals made in 2024-25, and they ranked 10th, 18th, and 25th respectively in those categories in 2025-26. Losing starting point guard Fred VanVleet to a season-ending knee injury before the season began hurt the Rockets in terms of playmaking, offensive organization, and scoring, but it still would have been reasonable to expect a Kevin Durant-centric offense to be better than mediocre. The good news for the Rockets is that they are still one of the league's top defensive teams, and they are very well coached, which would have been a reason to favor the Rockets in this matchup even if the Lakers were at full strength: Ime Udoka versus J.J. Redick is a clear advantage for Houston.
The Lakers won two out of three games versus the Rockets this season, but the Lakers had Doncic, Reaves, and James in all three of those games. It is tempting to pick a Houston sweep versus the shorthanded Lakers, but the Rockets' track record of late game implosions this season gives one pause, and if the Lakers can keep at least one of the games close then James can probably pull out one victory to avoid the sweep.Houston will win in five games.
-----
Thus, I expect
the second round matchups to be Detroit-Cleveland, Boston-New York, Oklahoma City-Houston, and San Antonio-Denver.
The Cavaliers fired J.B. Bickerstaff two years ago and replaced him with Kenny Atkinson, who won the 2025 NBA Coach of the Year award. Bickerstaff had a case to win the award last year, he may win it this year, and he surely would take special joy in knocking his old team out of the playoffs in the second round. Cade Cunningham is the best player in this series if he is healthy, and the team with the best player usually wins--even more so when that team also has homecourt advantage. James Harden has made a career out of shamelessly flopping for bogus foul calls, but he flops in a different way in the playoffs; pencil in James Harden for one of his "classic" elimination game meltdowns, most likely after providing false hope with a decent performance in game four or game five. The Pistons are mentally and physically tougher than the Cavaliers, so I am picking the Pistons to win in six games.
The Knicks beat the Celtics in six games in the second round last year, taking advantage of the Celtics' injuries and their errant three point shooting; the Celtics never recovered from blowing a 75-55 second half lead in game one. The Knicks are slightly better this season than they were last season, but the Celtics earned the second seed despite being without Jayson Tatum for most of the season, and now they seem primed to make a deep playoff run. The Celtics will win a classic seven game series.
The Thunder are a consistent team at both ends of the court, and they have the best player in this series--if not the entire league--in Shai Gilgeous-Alexander. Even if the Rockets keep the games close, they can't be trusted down the stretch. The Thunder will win in five games.
The Spurs have had a very impressive season, but Nikola Jokic surrounded by a healthy supporting cast is tough to deal with in a seven game series. I expect the Nuggets to win a hard fought six game series.
In my projected Eastern Conference Finals matchup of Detroit versus Boston, I favor Boston's championship experience over Detroit's youth and physicality. I expect Boston to split the first two games in Detroit and then win the series in six games.
In my projected Western Conference Finals showdown between Oklahoma City and Denver, we will be treated to a series featuring Nikola Jokic versus Shai Gilgeous-Alexander for the second consecutive year, even though they will only be matched up one on one on switches. The Nuggets pushed the Thunder to seven games in the second round last year, and I expect this series to go seven games as well, with the same result: a Thunder win.
The NBA Finals will feature Oklahoma City going for a repeat and Boston trying to win a second championship in a three year span. It is always difficult to repeat, as Boston found out last season, but the Thunder are young, hungry, and seem to be healthy heading into the playoffs. Tatum winning Finals MVP a year after rupturing his Achilles would be a fairy tale come true, but I think that the Celtics will fall just short.
Oklahoma City will win in seven games.
********************
Here is a summary of the results of my previous predictions both for playoff qualifiers and for the outcomes of playoff series:
In my 2025-2026 Eastern Conference Preview I correctly picked six of this season's eight playoff teams and I went six for eight in my 2025-2026 Western Conference Preview. Here are my statistics for previous seasons:
2025: East 7/8, West 5/8
2024: East 7/8, West 5/8
2023: East 7/8, West 6/8
2022: East 7/8, West 5/8
2021: East 6/8, West 6/8
2020: East 7/8, West 6/8
2019: East 6/8, West 7/8
2018: East 6/8, West 6/8
2017: East 5/8, West 7/8
2016: East 5/8, West 6/8
2015: East 5/8, West 7/8
2014: East 6/8, West 6/8
2013: East 7/8, West 6/8
2012: East 8/8, West 7/8
2011: East 5/8, West 5/8
2010: East 6/8, West 7/8
2009: East 6/8, West 7/8
2008: East 5/8, West 7/8
2007: East 7/8, West 6/8
2006: East 6/8, West 6/8
That adds up to 130/168 in the East and 129/168 in the West for an overall accuracy rate of .771.
Here is my record in terms of picking the results of playoff series:
2024: 12/15
2023: 9/15
2022: 8/15
2021: 9/15
2020: 10/15
2019: 10/15
2018: 11/15
2017: 14/15
2016: 12/15
2015: 10/15
2014: 13/15
2013: 14/15
2012: 11/15
2011: 10/15
2010: 10/15
2009: 10/15
2008: 12/15
2007: 12/15
2006: 10/15
2005: 9/15
Total: 226/315 (.717)
At the end of each of my playoff previews I predict which teams will make it to the NBA Finals; in the past 21 years I have correctly picked 21 of the 42 NBA Finals participants. In five of those 21 years (including 2016 and 2017) I got both teams right and twice I got both teams right and predicted the correct result (2007, 2017). I correctly picked the NBA Champion before the playoffs began six times: 2007, 2013, 2017, 2018, 2021, 2025.
I track these results separately from the series by series predictions because a lot can change from the start of the playoffs to the NBA Finals, so my prediction right before the NBA Finals may differ from what I predicted when the playoffs began.
Labels: Boston Celtics, Cade Cunningham, Denver Nuggets, Detroit Pistons, Jalen Brunson, Jaylen Brown, New York Knicks, Nikola Jokic, Oklahoma City Thunder, San Antonio Spurs, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Victor Wembanyama
posted by David Friedman @ 1:52 AM
0 Comments:
Post a Comment
<< Home