Memphis Versus Golden State Preview
Western Conference Second Round
#2 Memphis (56-26) vs. #3 Golden State (53-29)
Season series: Memphis, 3-1
Golden State can win if…the Warriors' three high-scoring guards--Stephen Curry, Klay Thompson, and Jordan Poole--continue to be both prolific and efficient, and if the Warriors can slow down Memphis' powerful offense. In Golden State's five game first round win against the injury-depleted Denver Nuggets, Curry (28.0 ppg, .500 FG%, .404 3FG%), Thompson (22.6 ppg, .506 FG%, .458 3FG%), and Poole (21.0 ppg, .548 FG%, .484 3FG%) each averaged at least 20 ppg while shooting at least .500 from the field and at least .400 from three point range. The Warriors not only hunted and exploited favorable matchups, but their guards did not have to expend much energy on defense.
However, neither of those advantages will exist versus Memphis. The Memphis guards are much better defensively than Denver's guards, plus Memphis' big men are better able to switch or trap. The Memphis guards are also much better offensively than Denver's guards, which will force Curry, Thompson, and Poole to exert more energy at that end of the court than they did in the first round.
If both teams play their best games, the Grizzlies will win more often than the Warriors will win. The games will probably be close and the series will probably go the distance, but this matchup is nothing like facing an undermanned Denver team whose best player--reigning regular season MVP Nikola Jokic--could be exploited on defense.
Memphis will win because…the Grizzlies have more collective offensive firepower than the Warriors, they are a better rebounding team, and they are a strong defensive team that can make things difficult for the Warriors' sharpshooters.
The Warriors have "name brand" offense led by Curry and Thompson, but collectively the Grizzlies play faster, score more, shoot almost as well, and benefit from extra possessions due to superior rebounding/committing fewer turnovers. The rise of Ja Morant has been impressive to watch. Morant won the 2022 Most Improved Player award, becoming the first player to receive that honor after winning Rookie of the Year. Morant scored 21.5 ppg during Memphis' six game first round series win over the Minnesota Timberwolves, but he struggled with his shooting (shooting splits of just .386/.200/.712). He led the Grizzlies with 10.5 apg, and he ranked second on the team with 8.7 rpg. Morant had 10 offensive rebounds in the first round, just one fewer than Minnesota's 6-11 All-Star Karl-Anthony Towns. Morant's regular season shooting splits were .493/.344/.761, and for Memphis to win this series it is important that he shoot better than he did versus Minnesota. Morant has hinted that he is not 100% physically, but the old school rule is if you are injured then you cannot play and if you can play then you are not injured, because by this point of the year every NBA player is hurt to some extent.
Desmond Bane was Memphis' leading scorer versus Minnesota (23.5 ppg, shooting splits of .495/.482/.900). Brandon Clarke and Dillon Brooks tied for third on the team in scoring (16.5 ppg), with Clarke shooting .679 from the field and leading the Grizzlies in rebounding (9.0 rpg). Jaren Jackson (11.8 ppg, 7.2 rpg, team-high 2.7 bpg) is a promising young big man who must learn how to stay out of foul trouble.
Golden State's best chance is if the moment and the stage turn out to be too much for the Grizzlies, resulting in the Grizzlies not playing at the level that they maintained throughout this season and during the first round versus the Timberwolves. I don't think that Morant will let that happen, and we have also seen that this team can maintain its poise and win even without Morant (the Grizzlies went 20-5 this season when Morant did not play).
Other things to consider: There is so much talk about Golden State's championship pedigree and "Death Lineup" that it is forgotten or ignored that Golden State sans Kevin Durant won one championship against a Cleveland team coached by David Blatt and missing injured stars Kyrie Irving and Kevin Love; in 2016, a healthier Cleveland team coached by Tyronn Lue overcame a 3-1 deficit to beat the Warriors in the NBA Finals, sending Draymond Green scurrying to his phone to beg Durant to come to the Bay Area because the Warriors needed him so desperately. Durant led the Warriors to back to back championships, and he may have carried the Warriors to a third title if he had not been slowed by injuries before rupturing his Achilles in game five of the 2019 NBA Finals. So, even when Curry, Thompson, and Green were fully healthy and in their primes they won exactly one title at the expense of a Cleveland team decimated by injuries. Let's not pretend that this version of the Warriors sans Durant is a dynasty like Bill Russell's Celtics (11 titles in 13 seasons), the Magic-Kareem Showtime Lakers (five titles in nine seasons), the Jordan-Pippen Bulls (six titles in eight seasons) or even the Shaq-Kobe Lakers (three straight titles). The Warriors are a very good team that is older, slower, and not as deep as the squad that won the 2015 championship; the Warriors are not nearly as good as the Durant-led powerhouse that won back to back titles in 2017-18.
The Grizzlies beat the Warriors in last year's NBA Play-In Tournament, and the Grizzlies improved even more this season than the Warriors did. The Grizzlies' biggest weaknesses are youth and inexperience--most evident when they make questionable decisions, including poor shot selection--but they make up for those weaknesses with toughness, physicality, and a commitment to playing hard at both ends of the court that is atypical for a young team that lacks playoff experience. This series is also an opportunity for Morant to make his case for being the league's best point guard by outplaying Curry individually while leading his team to victory.
Memphis will win in seven games.
Labels: Brandon Clarke, Desmond Bane, Draymond Green, Golden State Warriors, Ja Morant, Klay Thompson, Memphis Grizzlies, Stephen Curry
posted by David Friedman @ 12:12 PM
6 Comments:
Anyone who started watching basketball in 2021 and watched these two teams would come to the same conclusion. Kudos for making this prediction. Warriors would have done well to acquire another big man at the trade deadline. I also predict Grizzlies in 7
Marcel
Warriors in 6 or 7
Memphis don't have experience to win in this environment
Warriors a veteran playoff team will beat them
Plus no answer for polle
Bolu:
All 20 of ESPN's "experts" picked the Warriors, so my prediction is far from the consensus choice, but I think that my prediction is well-reasoned and nothing that I saw in game one changes my opinion that the Grizzlies will win in seven.
Marcel:
As game one demonstrated, this will be a close and hard-fought series. The Grizzlies match up well with the Warriors, and the Grizzlies have not shown any signs that they are intimidated by "this environment." Over the course of seven games, I trust the Grizzlies' defense and physicality more than I trust the Warriors' shooting; the Warriors rely too much on the the three point shot now, and they miss the offensive versatility (and defense and rebounding) provided by Kevin Durant during their last two championship runs.
You're likely right about offensive versatility but are we certain they miss KD on defense or the glass really? Surely he was a helper for both but they've since gone out and added some dakka to make up the loss. Just by the numbers it seems they've gotten better at both without him.
Rank on Opponent PPG: '17 (11th), '18 (18th), '19 (16th), '22 (3rd)
Rank on Opponent FG%: '17 (1st), '18 (3rd), '19 (3rd), '22 (2nd)
Rank on Rebounding: '17 (7th), '18 (17th), '19 (11th), '22 (7th)
Mind that's with this season's numbers a bit deflated from Green being out half the year with a hinkie back. Playoffs and regular season are different beasts to be sure but with Draymond right it seems as though there they were probably the best defense in the league this regular season.
They might well miss Durant's scoring but it seems they've more than made up for the lack of his defense or rebounding with the additions of blokes like Wiggins and Payton. Curry has also improved some as a defender.
Jazz Man:
I would never go "just by the numbers" without considering contextual factors and matchups. As you noted, the playoffs and the regular season are different. The Warriors went 73-9 in 2016 without Durant, but they did not win the title. They did not match that regular season record during Durant's tenure, but they did win two titles with Durant clearly the best player on the team.
Even if I bought your premise that the Warriors are as good defensively and on the boards now as they were in 2017, replacing Durant with Wiggins and Payton comes at a cost at the other end of the court. Also, Durant's size poses matchup problems at both ends of the court.
I disagree with the notion that Curry has improved as a defender since 2017. He has improved since he came into the league, but I would not say that he is a better defensive player now than he was during Golden State's Finals runs.
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