Magic Rout Hawks and Warriors Edge Grizzlies to Clinch Playoff Berths
The NBA Play-In Tournament lived up (or down) to my expectations in the opener, as the physical, defensive-minded Orlando Magic stomped an Atlanta Hawks team that struggled to score and then compounded that problem by playing very little defense. The Magic won 120-95 and the game was not as close as the final margin suggested: the Magic outrebounded the Hawks 54-42, outscored the Hawks in the paint 58-52, and held the Hawks to 32-82 field goal shooting (.381), including 4-21 (.190) from three point range. The Magic's bench outscored the Hawks' bench 57-30.
Cole Anthony scored a team-high 26 points off of the bench for Orlando, and he passed for six assists without committing a turnover in 20 minutes of action. Wendell Carter Jr. added 19 points, and Paolo Banchero had a strong all-around game (17 points, nine rebounds, team-high seven assists) even though he shot just 4-13 from the field. Anthony Black contributed 16 points, four rebounds, and four assists as a reserve while posting a game-best +34 plus/minus number.
Trae Young scored a game-high 28 points, but he shot just 8-21 from the field and had the second worst plus/minus number (-22) in the game. Young capped off his performance by getting ejected for disrespecting a
referee with 4:47 remaining in the game; in his post-game press
conference, Young complained about his team not getting a fair whistle,
even though the Magic committed more fouls (25-18) and the Hawks shot
more free throws (34-27). I have never understood or agreed with the "Ice Trae" hype; yes, he has hit some exciting shots and he posts gaudy statistics for points and assists, but he is an undersized, inefficient offensive player who puts up empty calorie numbers while not playing a lick of defense for a mediocre team. Young has a 2-3 career playoff series record in seven seasons, and his Hawks have not won a playoff series since 2021. The notion that he is a great clutch player is refuted by his woeful playoff career shooting (.402 from the field, including .297 from three point range). He has never shot better than .441 from the field in a playoff series, and he shot worse than .400 from the field in two of his five playoff series.
The Magic outscored the Hawks 17-2 in the final 4:58 of the first quarter and led 32-17 after the first 12 minutes. There is so much talk about "clutch time" statistics, but the reality is that the NBA is often a first quarter league, and that was true in this game: the Magic outscored the Hawks by 15 in the first quarter, and then outscored the Hawks by 10 the rest of the way. The Magic built a 22 point first half lead before settling for a 61-47 halftime edge. The Hawks cut the margin to 71-68 on a Caris LeVert layup with 3:00 left in the third quarter, but the Magic outscored the Hawks 21-13 in the next seven minutes to reestablish a double digit lead that they never relinquished the rest of the way.
The Magic earned the seventh seed in the Eastern Conference, and will face the Boston Celtics in the first round of the playoffs, while the Hawks will host the winner of the Chicago-Miami game for the eighth seed in the Eastern Conference.
The second game of Tuesday night's NBA Play-In Tournament doubleheader looked like it was heading toward a blowout win for Golden State after the Warriors sprinted to a 55-35 second quarter lead versus Memphis, but the Grizzlies roared back to cut the margin to single digits at the 8:43 mark of the third quarter. The Grizzlies led 96-94 early in the fourth quarter, and did not trail by more than six points the rest of the way. I predicted that the Warriors would win "a close, hard fought game," and the Warriors eventually prevailed, 121-116.
Jimmy Butler added another chapter to the legend of "Playoff Jimmy" (or "Play-In Jimmy," in this instance), pouring in a game-high 38 points on 12-20 field goal shooting while also contributing seven rebounds, six assists, and three steals. The way that he forced his way out of Miami in the middle of this season instead of honoring his contract stinks, but there is no denying his talent. Stephen Curry shot a Trae Young-like 9-22 from the field, but he made all 13 of his free throws to finish with 37 points while also grabbing a team-high eight rebounds, passing for four assists, and committing just one turnover in 39 minutes.
Desmond Bane scored a team-high 30 points on 11-21 field goal shooting. Ja Morant added 22 points, but he had just three assists while committing a game-high five turnovers. Even more worrisome for the Grizzlies is that he scored just four points after suffering a nasty sprained ankle while hitting a 10 foot jumper with 4:25 left in the third quarter and the Warriors clinging to an 82-80 lead. Morant was fouled on the play and made the free throw to bring the Grizzlies to within one point. Jaren Jackson Jr. (18 points, six rebounds, four assists) and rookie Zach Edey (14 points, game-high 17 rebounds) played solidly in the paint but the Grizzlies needed them to shoot better from the field than 6-15 and 4-11 respectively.
The Grizzlies outrebounded the Warriors 50-39, but they squandered those extra possessions by losing the turnover battle, 19-10. If the undersized Warriors get outrebounded by a team that does not handle the ball with the dexterity of Edward Scissorhands they will likely lose, so they are facing quite the challenge as the seventh seed in the Western Conference with a first round matchup versus a Houston team that led the NBA in rebounding while ranking 11th in fewest turnovers. The Rockets are bigger, stronger, and younger than the Warriors while also having homecourt advantage.
The Grizzlies will host the winner of the Dallas-Sacramento game for the eighth seed in the Western Conference. Morant's swift recovery from his ankle injury is important, but the Grizzlies should have enough firepower to beat Dallas or Sacramento--and they don't have enough firepower to pose much of a threat to the top-seeded Oklahoma City Thunder.
The best news is that the Play-In Tournament will soon be over, and the playoffs will begin on Saturday April 19.
Labels: Atlanta Hawks, Cole Anthony, Desmond Bane, Golden State Warriors, Ja Morant, Jimmy Butler, Memphis Grizzlies, Orlando Magic, Paolo Banchero, Play-In Tournament, Stephen Curry, Trae Young, Wendell Carter Jr.
posted by David Friedman @ 2:32 AM
NBA Gives Ja Morant A Path Away From Oblivion
NBA Commissioner Adam Silver suspended Memphis Grizzlies All-Star Ja Morant 25 games without pay for "conduct detrimental to the league." The NBA issued an official statement about why Commissioner Silver suspended Morant; here is the pertinent portion of that official statement:
Morant posed with a firearm in a car during a live-streamed video on
May 13, less than two months after he was suspended eight games without
pay for the live streaming of a video on March 4 in which he displayed a
firearm while in an intoxicated state at a Denver area nightclub.
The league office found that, on May 13, Morant intentionally and
prominently displayed a gun while in a car with several other
individuals as they were leaving a social gathering in Memphis. Morant
wielded the firearm while knowing that he was being recorded and that
the recording was being live streamed on Instagram Live, despite having
made commitments to the NBA and public statements that he would not
repeat the conduct for which he was previously disciplined.
Regardless of whether or not Morant's conduct broke any laws, it is incorrect to suggest that Morant's Constitutional or legal rights are violated by this suspension. Morant's suspension is not a Second Amendment issue because the NBA is not challenging Morant's right to legally own a firearm; the NBA, like most corporate organizations, has its own internal rules and codes of conduct, and it has the legal right to enforce those rules and codes. The NBA has every right to make it clear to Morant that he must choose between two paths: he can be a highly paid NBA superstar who abides by the NBA's employment rules and guidelines, or he can be a guy who rides around in a car wielding a handgun in live social media videos.
Far from punishing Morant, Commissioner Silver is providing Morant a path away from oblivion: if Morant proceeds down his current path, he will be out of the league and he will have thrown away hundreds of millions of dollars--but Morant now has an opportunity to seek counseling, make smarter and more mature decisions, and return to a path filled with riches, praise, and likely basketball immortality.
Morant's suspension is far from the longest or most severe suspension in NBA history. Not including several players who received lifetime bans after repeatedly violating the league's anti-drug policies, here is a list of just a few of the players who have received longer suspensions from the NBA:
1) O.J. Mayo was suspended 164 games (two full seasons) in 2016 for violating the league's performance enhancing drug protocol.
2) Ron Artest was suspended 86 games in 2004 for his role in the infamous "Malice at the Palace."
3) Latrell Sprewell was suspended 68 games in 1997 for choking his then-coach, P.J. Carlesimo.
4) Gilbert Arenas was suspended 50 games in 2010 for bringing guns into the locker room during a dispute with teammate Javaris Crittenton (who was suspended 38 games for the same incident).
5) Stephen Jackson was suspended 30 games in 2004 for his role in the "Malice at the Palace."
The Arenas/Crittenton incident is perhaps most relevant to Morant's situation. By age 30, Gilbert Arenas--a three-time All-Star and three-time member of the All-NBA Team--was playing for the Shanghai Sharks. Arenas, who never seemed to understand the gravity of what he did, should consider himself lucky to be alive; he thought everything was a joke, but Crittenton was recently released from prison after serving 10 years for homicide, so if Arenas had pushed his luck a little further with Crittenton then Arenas may no longer be with us to offer weird NBA takes on his podcast.
Hopefully, Morant will use his time off without pay to change his thought process and improve his behavior. It would be a shame if he threw away his promising career the same way that Arenas squandered his talent, and it would be a tragedy if Morant ended up like Crittenton.
NBA coaches Steve Kerr and Gregg Popovich have been silent about Morant's public embrace of gun culture, and Morant's alleged involvement in multiple incidents during which he engaged in violence or threatened to engage in violence. I mention Kerr and Popovich by name because both men have not hesitated to loudly and repeatedly state their opinions about national gun laws and about politicians who they accuse of not taking gun violence seriously enough. Do Kerr and Popovich approve of Morant's conduct? Do they think that the suspension is long enough, too long, or not long enough? Once you open your mouth and assert that you have an opinion worth hearing on national policy issues, you accept the responsibility of speaking out about those issues moving forward. I am not naive enough to think that Kerr and Popovich will say anything about Morant other than "This is a league issue and I trust Adam Silver" or "I will not comment about discipline involving a player from another team," but those are cowardly responses. If you feel strongly about gun violence, gun laws, and the behavior of certain citizens, then let us know how you feel when a member of your corporate organization steps out of line.
One would think that anyone who protests about systemic racism and lack
of economic opportunities for various ethnic groups would be at the
forefront of encouraging Morant to not squander the chance to obtain
generational wealth that could be used not only to benefit himself and
his family but also underserved communities, many of which are filled
with young people who idolize Morant. In that regard, the critical response of the NBA Players Association to the 25 game suspension is as unsurprising as it is disappointing. The NBA Players Association presents itself as an organization that promotes social justice, but in fact it is an organization that primarily conducts public relations campaigns on behalf of players while remaining silent, at best, when players conduct themselves inappropriately; we saw this when Kyrie Irving exposed himself as an unrepentant antisemite.
Like the Commissioner, several coaches, and other members of the NBA community (including media members who work for companies with huge NBA contracts), the Players Association (and individual players) often makes statements about social justice and public safety. Does Morant's behavior fulfill their expectations? If a fan showed up at an NBA game or event behaving around NBA players as Morant behaved in public, would the Players Association defend the fan's Second Amendment rights and emphasize that the fan did nothing illegal? Or would the Players Association demand that the league and the police protect the players? Again, once you open your mouth about public policy issues, you accept the responsibility of speaking out about those issues moving forward.
It could be argued that the NBAPA is a union whose main task is to
support its members no matter what, but if the NBAPA does not have a
higher calling then it should be honest about that instead of purporting
to be an organization filled with social justice warriors: an
organization that is silent about antisemitism and complicit with
Morant's reckless behavior is hardly an organization that is taking the
lead to improve society.
One last point to consider is that some people suggest that Morant is being led astray by his friends and associates--but the reality is that Morant has been front and center leading the way in each incident involving him, so at some point we have to consider the possibility that Morant is the one leading the way as opposed to someone who is being led astray. Regardless of whether Morant is the leader or the follower, this may be his last chance to correct his course; hopefully, Morant will follow the path away from oblivion that Commissioner Silver has provided.
Labels: Adam Silver, Gregg Popovich, Ja Morant, Memphis Grizzlies, NBA, Steve Kerr
posted by David Friedman @ 10:36 AM
Grizzlies Rout Lakers, Send Series Back to L.A. for Game Six
The L.A. Lakers barely survived at home in game four versus the Memphis Grizzlies, and they provided little resistance on the road in game five, losing 116-99. If the Lakers and their fans assume that winning game six at home is a lock then they may be in for a very unpleasant surprise, because--despite the hype and the weird narratives that ignore evidence and common sense--the Lakers are the same team that they have been throughout the season: they do not consistently play hard or smart, which is why they needed to survive the Play-In Tournament to qualify for the playoffs.
The undersized Grizzlies--who are without the services of injured big men Steven Adams and Brandon Clarke--outscored the Lakers in the paint 56-48 while keeping the rebound battle nearly level (the Lakers won, 54-52). The 2023 NBA Defensive Player of the Year Jaren Jackson Jr. scored 18 points and tied for the team lead with 10 rebounds. Desmond Bane (33 points, 10 rebounds, five assists) and Ja Morant (31 points, 10 rebounds, seven assists) outplayed the Lakers' two 75th Anniversary Team players: Anthony Davis did his part (31 points, game-high 19 rebounds), but LeBron James finished with just 15 points on 5-17 field goal shooting, along with 10 rebounds, five assists, and a game-high five turnovers. Instead of attacking the paint, James settled for three pointers and he shot just 1-9 from beyond the arc. James is 38 years old and cannot reasonably be expected to dominate every game, but when James is having an off game his highly-touted supporting cast must pick up the slack.
The Lakers have received a lot of praise regarding the three players who they acquired in exchange for Russell Westbrook. Here is how the "tremendous trio" did versus Memphis in game five:
D'Angelo Russell had 11 points on 4-11 field goal shooting, but he did dish out a game-high 10 assists. He is averaging 13.8 ppg on .367 field goal shooting (25-68) during this series.
Jarred Vanderbilt had seven points on 3-4 field goal shooting. He is averaging 6.8 ppg on .609 field goal shooting (14-23) during this series.
Malik Beasley had six points on 2-6 field
goal shooting. He is averaging 3.2 ppg on .278 field goal shooting (5-18) in during this series.
Russell is an erratic, inconsistent offensive player who is a subpar defensive player. Vanderbilt is a scrappy defender whose offensive game mainly consists of picking up loose change in the paint. Beasley is barely in the rotation; in this game, he posted a plus/minus number of -23 in just 11 minutes.
The Lakers offered little defensive resistance in the first quarter, and they trailed 38-24 at the end of the first 12 minutes. As is often the case, the tone set in the first quarter presaged how the rest of the game would unfold.
Game six will be fascinating. The Lakers are consistently inconsistent, while the Grizzlies are young, impetuous and volatile. Will LeBron James have the necessary energy--and mindset--to attack the paint? Will Anthony Davis be a force in the paint? Will any of the highly touted role players acquired in exchange for Russell Westbrook have a meaningful impact? Will the undermanned and undersized Grizzlies scrap their way to a win and reclaim homecourt advantage?
Labels: Anthony Davis, Desmond Bane, Ja Morant, Jaren Jackson Jr., L.A. Lakers, LeBron James, Memphis Grizzlies
posted by David Friedman @ 1:23 AM
LeBron's 20-20 Vision Lifts Lakers to Overtime Win, 3-1 Series Lead Versus Grizzlies
LeBron James scored 22 points, grabbed a playoff career-high 20 rebounds, and passed for seven assists to lead the L.A. Lakers to a 117-111 overtime win versus the Memphis Grizzlies to take a 3-1 series lead. Austin Reaves paced the Lakers with 23 points, picking up the slack for Anthony Davis, who scored 12 points on 4-13 field goal shooting. Davis had as many turnovers as field goals, but he made his presence felt in the paint with 11 rebounds and four blocked shots.
Desmond Bane scored a game-high 36 points but he shot 13-29 from the field, including 3-12 from three point range as the teams combined to miss 59 three point shots. Ja Morant scored 19 points and tied James for game-high honors with seven assists, but he shot 8-24 from the field.
The Grizzlies squandered a golden opportunity to win this game; they led 83-81 at the end of the third quarter, and they pushed that margin to 97-90 with 5:13 remaining in regulation, but their erratic shooting proved fatal. The Grizzlies shot 7-18 from the field (.389) in the fourth quarter, including 2-11 from players not named Bane. Bane scored 14 fourth quarter points on 5-7 field goal shooting, including a fast break layup with 6.7 seconds remaining to put the Grizzlies up, 104-102. The Grizzlies needed one defensive stop to win the game, but instead of settling for a long jump shot James drove to the hoop and made a high arcing layup with less than a second left to tie the score.
In overtime, the Lakers stopped jacking up three pointers and scored eight points on 4-5 field goal shooting in the paint while the Grizzlies shot just 3-9 from the field overall in the extra session, including 1-5 from beyond the arc. Other game recaps will no doubt wax poetic about D'Angelo Russell's three fourth quarter three pointers without mentioning that he had a -16 plus/minus number before fouling out; the absence of Russell's questionable shot selection and subpar defense helped the Lakers in overtime, and it would be intellectually dishonest to mention three shots that he made without noting that his other "contributions" were major reasons why the Lakers were trailing in the first place.
Four of the nine Lakers who played in this game had negative plus/minus numbers: Davis plus the three players acquired in exchange for Russell Westbrook. The Lakers won this game and are leading this series despite the Westbrook trade, not because of it. Coach Darvin Ham understands this, regardless of what some commentators may say and what some delusional fans believe: D'Angelo Russell, Jarred Vanderbilt, and Malik Beasley did not play at all in the overtime. Granted, Russell probably would have played if he had not fouled out--and the Lakers would have been worse off with Russell in the game.
Here is how the "triumphant troika" did versus Memphis in game four:
Russell had 17 points on 7-15 field goal shooting. He is averaging 14.5 ppg on .368 field goal
shooting during this series.
Vanderbilt had 15 points on 6-9 field goal shooting while accumulating a game-worst -18 plus/minus number. He is averaging 6.8 ppg on .579 field goal shooting during this series.
Beasley had three points on 1-4 field
goal shooting. He is averaging 2.5 ppg on .250 field goal shooting in during this series.
Playoff games are won in the paint. James dominated the boards, and during crunch time he drove to the hoop instead of settling for three pointers; he looked less like a stat padder and more like a great player who was doing what needed to be done for his team to win. Davis was a non-factor offensively, but the importance of his presence in the paint defensively and on the boards should not be minimized.
I picked the Grizzlies to win this series, and I may have been wrong about that--but I have been 100% right about what the Lakers need to do to win: they need James and Davis to dominate in the paint. All of the talk about "lasers" and the role players that the Lakers acquired in exchange for a future Hall of Famer are just distractions from the real story.
Labels: Anthony Davis, Ja Morant, L.A. Lakers, LeBron James, Memphis Grizzlies
posted by David Friedman @ 2:42 AM
Lakers Dominate the Paint, Cruise to 111-101 Victory Over Grizzlies
The L.A. Lakers bounced back from a listless game two loss against the shorthanded Memphis Grizzlies by playing with "discipline and focus"--as Jalen Rose aptly put it--that they have rarely demonstrated in recent seasons, tying an NBA playoff record by building a 26 point lead by the end of the first quarter before coasting to a 111-101 win. Anthony Davis led the Lakers in scoring and rebounding (31 points, 17 rebounds), while LeBron James added 25 points, nine rebounds, and five assists. Ja Morant returned to action in style for Memphis after missing game two with a hand injury, exploding for 45 points, 13 assists, and nine rebounds.
The Lakers outscored the Grizzlies 58-42 in the paint, including 22-4 in that 35-9 first quarter explosion. People who don't understand basketball--or are pushing a narrative at variance with reality--insist that the Lakers need a lot of outside shooting in order to contend for a championship. Note that the Lakers shot 2-7 (.286) from three point range during their dominant first quarter, and just 7-28 (.250) from beyond the arc in the game. James attempted four shots from beyond the arc in 36 minutes. The last time that James attempted four or fewer three pointers in a playoff game is game one of the 2020 NBA Finals. Since that time, James' Lakers have posted a 7-7 playoff record as James far too often settled for long range shots instead of attacking the paint.
The 2020 Lakers won the NBA title while ranking 23rd in the league in three pointers attempted and 21st in the league in three point field goal percentage.
There is no other way to put this: the notion that the Lakers' success is dependent on three point shooting is idiotic.
The two significant stories from this game are (1) the Lakers won because they dominated the paint for the first 12 minutes, and (2) in the final 36 minutes the Grizzlies outscored the Lakers in the paint 38-36. The NBA is often a first quarter league, not a fourth quarter league, and this game was a perfect example: the Grizzlies outplayed the Lakers for 36 minutes, but the Lakers' huge first quarter advantage was too much to overcome.
In short, the Lakers can be very good when their two members of the NBA's 75th Anniversary Team attack the paint--but those two players have repeatedly demonstrated that they are only willing and able to attack the paint selectively. That is why the Lakers have been mediocre or worse since winning the 2020 "Bubble" title.
Of course, the two significant stories are unlikely to receive much mainstream media coverage. The mainstream media coverage will focus on Memphis forward Dillon Brooks. After game two, Brooks boasted--in reference to the trash talk he directed at LeBron James--"I poke bears." I checked Brooks' resume, and this is what I found: no All-NBA selections, no All-Star selections, no All-Defensive Team selections, no 20 ppg seasons, career .416 field goal percentage, never advanced past the second round of the playoffs.
Brooks does not poke bears; he has spent his brief career being stomped by bears. It is legitimate to debate where James ranks in pro basketball's Pantheon of the greatest players of all-time, but there is no question that Brooks is a basketball nobody compared to James.
Brooks scored seven points on 3-13 field goal shooting in this game before earning an ejection for poking James below the belt. Brooks joined the growing list of players who have delivered cheap shots to opponents during the 2023 playoffs: Draymond Green was ejected and then suspended for a game after stomping on Domantas Sabonis, Joel Embiid received a flagrant foul but was spared ejection after kicking Nic Claxton below the belt, and then Embiid's teammate James Harden received an ejection but no suspension after hitting Royce O'Neale in the groin. Harden displayed his usual level of self-awareness when he said with a straight face that he did not think that he had committed an infraction at all, let alone one worthy of ejection; apparently, Harden is so used to illegally pushing off to get open that he just takes for granted that he has the right hit opponents anywhere at any time.
Brooks should be suspended one game for his cheap shot on James. Considering the way that sports leagues merge analytics with various camera angles, I have a proposal for dealing with the cheap shot artists: figure out the speed and power of the blows that they delivered to their opponents, and then stipulate that a properly calibrated robot will deliver an identical blow to them in the same body part before they are permitted to return to action.
I have played basketball my whole life, and I have never struck another player in the groin, intentionally or accidentally. I have accidentally hit players on the arms, chest, and even top of the head while trying to block shots; those are normal basketball plays that can happen, because those are the body parts that are usually in closest proximity to a basketball that is being shot, passed, rebounded, or caught. I do not have a fraction of the athletic ability of any NBA player, but somehow I manage to control my limbs better than they do, which is interesting (I also do not fall down with the frequency that Anthony Davis and Joel Embiid do, but that is another story).
Switching from groin shots to missed shots, let's check in on the "triumphant trio": media members heap praise on the three players who the Lakers acquired for the much-maligned Westbrook, so let's look how
those players did versus Memphis in game three.
D'Angelo
Russell had 17 points on 5-14 field goal shooting, plus seven assists. He is averaging 13.7 ppg on .333 field goal
shooting in the first three games of this series. Russell's 42 points in three games barely exceeds the 37 points (on 17-29 field goal shooting) that Westbrook scored for his shorthanded L.A. Clippers in game four versus the Phoenix Suns.
Jarred
Vanderbilt had zero points on 0-1 field goal shooting. He is averaging 4.0 ppg on .500 field goal shooting in the first three games of this
series.
Malik Beasley had zero points on 0-2 field
goal shooting. He is averaging 2.3 ppg on .286 field goal shooting in
the first two games of this series.
I am not sure what is worse: the collective productivity and efficiency of these three players, or the fact that there are commentators who are paid a lot of money to insist that these three role players can make a better contribution to a winning program than Westbrook.
LeBron James' p.r. team in the mainstream media will work overtime declaring that he made a "statement" in this game. James explicitly told Dave "Vampire" McMenamin that with his resume he does not have to make statements, which I predict will be spun as James demonstrating his great modesty and ability to rise above the fray. The reality is that James and the Lakers rightly took umbrage at Brooks' absurd remarks, and the Lakers were so inspired that they played hard for 12 minutes out of 48, which is about par for the course for these Lakers. During the telecast, ESPN noted the high number of uncontested shots that the Grizzlies missed during the first quarter; it has become a cliche for players to insist "It was not great defense; we just missed shots" but to a large extent that was true in the first quarter; the Grizzlies missed a lot of open shots, and the Lakers played with great purpose on offense in the first quarter, taking advantage of all of Memphis' misses.
After all is said and done--and a lot is sure to be said about the Lakers' magnificent 12 minutes and how those minutes validate James' greatness--sober-minded people will remember that the next game starts with a 0-0 score, and the Grizzlies can reclaim homecourt advantage with a win.
Labels: Anthony Davis, Dillon Brooks, Ja Morant, L.A. Lakers, LeBron James, Memphis Grizzlies
posted by David Friedman @ 2:38 AM
Memphis Grizzlies Announce That Ja Morant Will Miss at Least the Next Two Games
Let's hope that Ja Morant does not end up like Gilbert Arenas or--even worse--Tupac Shakur. Athletes and entertainers who wave around guns or otherwise portray themselves as being "about that life" have a long, sad history, a history that those who are close to Morant and care about him should make sure that Morant familiarizes himself with during his upcoming time off of work.
Today, the Memphis Grizzlies issued a brief statement: "Ja Morant will be away from the team for at least the next two games." The Grizzlies did not call this action a suspension, did not indicate if Morant will be paid during his absence, and did not explain why Morant will miss at least two games. Of course, anyone who follows the news even casually knows exactly what happened. Last night, Morant posted a video of himself on Instagram holding a gun, apparently in a nightclub. Recently, Morant was sued as a result of an incident during which he allegedly beat up a 17 year old and brandished a gun during that attack; Morant denied that accusation, and the authorities declined to press charges. Earlier this season, associates of Morant's were banned by the Indiana Pacers after the Pacers' traveling party alleged that a red laser dot--like one used to aim a gun--had been pointed at them. The NBA investigated that incident but found no evidence that a gun had been pointed. Last summer, Morant and associates allegedly had a confrontation with a head of mall security; no charges were filed as a result of that incident.
I am a firm believer in the bedrock legal principle of innocent until proven guilty. Morant has not been charged with a crime, let alone convicted of one.
That being said, a person who keeps putting himself in the wrong place at the wrong time runs the risk of having wrong outcomes. During tonight's ESPN "NBA Countdown," Jalen Rose--who candidly admitted that he used to be Ja Morant, a young basketball star figuring out how to adjust to fame and fortune while resisting the lure of the streets and the temptation to act like a tough guy--said that he has learned that people enter your life for one of four reasons: addition, subtraction, multiplication, or division. Rose declared that Morant is a leader now whether he wants to be or not, and that he is responsible for who he associates with and for his actions. Rose is encouraged by the statement that Morant issued, and Rose is optimistic that Morant will grow as a person as a result of this situation.
Here is Morant's statement: "I'm sorry to my
family, teammates, coaches, fans, partners, the city of Memphis and the
entire Grizzlies organization for letting you down. I'm going to take
some time away to get help and work on learning better methods of
dealing with stress and my overall well-being."
That statement is the right message, but talk is cheap. Morant's subsequent actions will demonstrate the sincerity of his statement.
Part of Morant's self-cultivated image while emerging as an NBA star is that he "wants all the smoke," meaning that he does not back down from anyone or anything. There is nothing wrong with swagger. Some of my favorite athletes of all-time--from Muhammad Ali to Reggie Jackson to Deion Sanders--bragged about how great they were. There are two key things to remember about Ali, Jackson, and Sanders: (1) They backed up their braggadocio with championship-winning performances, and (2) they understood the difference between competitive swagger and reckless personal behavior. Morant has fallen short in both regards, and the latter failing could have fatal consequences for himself and others.
I am not accusing Morant of anything--other than foolishly posting the gun video on Instagram, which Morant has not denied doing--but I hope that Rose is right that Morant will make better decisions moving forward.
It will be interesting to see how the NBA handles this. Commissioner Adam Silver often appears to fancy himself as a friend to the players, in contrast to his predecessor David Stern, who understood that his job was not to befriend the players but to act in the league's best interests (which is also benefits the players). I recall an interview in which Carmelo Anthony described a one on one meeting that he had with Commissioner Stern, who told Anthony that he knows where Anthony goes, what Anthony does, and with whom Anthony associates. Stern told Anthony point blank that he can embrace street life or he can participate in the NBA's multi-billion dollar business, but he cannot do both. That is the kind of tough love that saves lives. I hope that Commissioner Silver delivers a similar message to Morant. It would be great if Morant's father--who seems to love the limelight--delivers that message to Morant as well.
Labels: Gilbert Arenas, Ja Morant, Memphis Grizzlies, Tupac Shakur
posted by David Friedman @ 10:14 PM
Ja Morant is Great, but the Memphis Grizzlies are not a One Man Team
I love Ja Morant's game: he is explosive, he is versatile, and he is an unselfish player who revels in his teammates' success. Morant deserves the headlines and the highlights--he is not only a spectacular player, but he is a very effective player who is posting career-high numbers in scoring (27.4 ppg, matching last season's average), assists (7.9 apg), and rebounding (5.8 rpg). The 6-3 point guard who is a fan favorite because of his amazing dunks is leading the Grizzlies in scoring and assists while ranking third in rebounding.
However, it should be noted that the Grizzlies' success is based upon the often underrated factors that generally are the foundation for team success in basketball: they rank first in defensive field goal percentage, first in rebounding, and second in point differential.
In my 2022-23 Western Conference Preview, I ranked the Grizzlies as the second best team in the West, declaring, "Some teams rise up for one fluky season only to fall back into the
pack--Portland, Atlanta, and New York are three recent examples of
this--but the Grizzlies look like a team built for sustained high level
success."
As I noted last season, the Grizzlies "are an old-school type of team that rejects the notion that you have to take and make a lot of three pointers to be successful." In 2021-22, the Grizzlies finished with the second best record in the Western Conference (56-26) while ranking 17th in three point field goal percentage, 23rd in three point field goals made, and 23rd in three point field goals attempted, and this season they currently have the second best record in the Western Conference--29-13, just half a game behind the 30-13 Denver Nuggets--while ranking 18th in three point field goal percentage, 19th in three point field goals made, and 18th in three point field goals made.
You could say that the "analytics revolution" emphasizing--among other things--high volume three point shooting has not found its way to Memphis, but the reality is that the Grizzlies took a stab at using "advanced basketball statistics," and rapidly descended from the 2013 Western Conference Finals to missing the playoffs in 2018 as "stat guru" John Hollinger feuded with Coach Lionel Hollins (who the Grizzlies then fired right after the team's 2013 Western Conference Finals appearance) before distinguishing himself from the pack by destroying Memphis' roster.
Despite the media hype touting the value of "advanced basketball statistics," there are limitations to a narrow, mathematical approach to a complex subject that defies simple mathematical modeling/projections. Or, put another way, Economics is Not a Science, Nor is Basketball Statistical Analysis. I must emphasize that I do not "hate" statistical analysis; I oppose poorly done statistical analysis in general, and I specifically reject the notion that statistical analysis is as applicable to basketball--a free flowing game of near constant motion--as it is to baseball, a game of "discrete, one on one actions: the pitcher throws the ball, the batter
swings and, if he makes contact, a fielder attempts to catch the ball."
Is there value in looking at the performance of various five player lineups, at a player's shooting percentages from various spots on the court, and at other statistics not found in a traditional box score? Of course there is--but those data points are only meaningful when considered in a larger context of other data points, combined with the "eye test" observations of competent coaches and scouts. The notion that you can understand basketball without even watching the game--or the even more radical notion that the "eye test" is so biased that you are better off not watching the game and relying entirely on "objective" numbers, as some "stat gurus" insist--is foolish.
After their detour into "stat guru" purgatory, the Grizzlies have emerged as a team that is intelligently run, with a well-balanced roster that plays smart, hard-nosed basketball. There is nothing wrong with enjoying Morant's dunks and sensational moves--he is one of my favorite players to watch--but basketball purists can also enjoy Memphis' emphasis on defense and rebounding, which have been the cornerstones for team success throughout basketball history.
Labels: "advanced basketball statistics", "stat gurus", Ja Morant, John Hollinger, Memphis Grizzlies
posted by David Friedman @ 11:44 AM
Morant Ties Playoff Career High With 47 Points as Grizzlies Defeat Warriors, 106-101
The Memphis Grizzlies could not afford to lose game two at home to the Golden State Warriors after missing an opportunity to win game one at the buzzer--and Ja Morant made sure that the Grizzlies prevailed, tying his playoff career high with 47 points, including 18 in the fourth quarter when neither team led by more than four points until the final seconds. Memphis' 106-101 victory tied the series at 1-1, and showed that the Grizzlies are not suffering any lingering aftereffects from squandering a 13 point lead in the first game. Morant was masterful from start to finish, shooting 15-31 from the field (including 5-12 from three point range) and 12-13 from the free throw line while tying for the team lead in rebounds (eight) and leading the team in assists (eight). He had three steals and just two turnovers.
Morant joins a select group of players who notched at least two 45 point playoff games before the age of 25, including Wilt Chamberlain, Rick Barry, Michael Jordan, Kobe Bryant and LeBron James. Morant is also the youngest player to post 47-8-8 in a playoff game, breaking a mark held by James. James and Russell Westbrook are the only players to have two such playoff games.
Memphis' next leading scorer was Ziaire Williams (14 points). Jaren Jackson Jr. scored 12 points before fouling out, but he shot just 3-14 from the field. Stephen Curry led the Warriors with 27 points, but he shot 11-25 from the field, and he had three of his five turnovers in the fourth quarter. Jordan Poole added 20 points on 8-16 field goal shooting. Andrew Wiggins scored 16 points and had nine rebounds, but he shot 6-16 from the field. Klay Thompson scored 12 points on 5-19 field goal shooting, including 2-12 from three point range.
The game got off to a very rough start. With 9:08 remaining in first quarter, Dillon Brooks received a flagrant foul penalty 2 (and automatic ejection) for the windup, impact and follow through as he hit Gary Payton II in the head and knocked Payton out of the air as Payton drove to the hoop for a fast break layup. Payton II suffered a broken elbow after taking a very hard landing on the play. Golden State Coach Steve Kerr called the play "dirty" and said that Brooks had broken the players' code to not hit a vulnerable player in midair in a way that could injure that player. I would say that a dirty play consists of an unsportsmanlike act intended to seriously injure another player; for example, the repeated times that Warrior Draymond Green has struck opposing players below the belt are dirty plays. In contrast, Brooks' play was reckless: he is not a shot blocker and he barely even jumped before hitting Payton, so Brooks would have been well-advised to simply wrap Payton up to prevent Payton from attempting a shot. Swinging wildly to block the shot was (1) not likely to result in a blocked shot and (2) running the risk of injuring Payton. Coaches cannot insist that the "no layup" rule applies in the playoffs and then say that it is a dirty play to try to prevent an opposing player from making a layup--but there is no doubt that Brooks made a reckless play that warranted receiving a flagrant foul penalty 2, and the play was reckless enough (and caused a serious enough injury) that the league has to at least consider suspending Brooks. The point of the flagrant foul rule and of suspending players is to encourage players to not only avoid dirty plays but also to avoid reckless plays.
The Grizzlies led 8-0 when Brooks was ejected, but the Warriors settled down, and pulled to within 56-51 at halftime. Morant already had 23 points on 7-12 field goal shooting at intermission. The Warriors tied the score at 77 heading into the fourth quarter, and after the Warriors took the lead early in the final stanza you could picture the "experts" writing game stories about how the veteran Warriors outplayed the young Grizzlies--but the team that is supposed to have "championship DNA" and more experience in "this environment" lost the game after shooting 2-7 from the field in the final 3:11 as Memphis outscored Golden State 13-4 down the stretch. Morant scored Memphis' final 15 points of the game. How rare is that? The last player who scored his team's final 15 points or more in a playoff victory was LeBron James, who scored Cleveland's final 25 points in an instant classic game five Eastern Conference Finals win versus Detroit.
The Warriors are 13-13 this season in games decided by five points or less. The "stat gurus" will insist that the Warriors do not miss Kevin Durant because Stephen Curry is a better player than Durant, but the rest of us know better.
There are a lot of different ways of looking at this series, but the outcome will probably not be decided until the final moments of game seven. Golden State has the advantage on paper heading home for two games after getting the split on the road, but the Grizzlies are more than capable of winning at least one of the next two road games. Any Golden State happiness about being in the driver's seat for the moment should be tempered by the reality that the Grizzlies are one Morant layup away from being up 2-0.
Labels: Golden State Warriors, Ja Morant, Memphis Grizzlies, Stephen Curry
posted by David Friedman @ 2:10 AM
Warriors Overcome 13 Point Deficit to Beat Grizzlies as Morant Misses Layup at the Buzzer
In round one of a bout between former champions and young upstarts, score one for the former champions: the Golden State Warriors overcame a 13 point first half deficit to beat the Memphis Grizzlies 117-116 to gain home court advantage, but don't be surprised if this heavyweight fight goes the full distance. Jordan Poole led the Warriors with 31 points on 12-20 field goal shooting, including 5-10 from three point range. Stephen Curry shot poorly from the field (8-20) and he had a team-worst -9 plus/minus number, but he accumulated 24 points and the Warriors needed every single point. Andrew Wiggins had a solid game (17 points, eight rebounds). Klay Thompson had a wretched shooting night (15 points on 6-19 field goal shooting, 0-2 free throw shooting), but he hit what turned out to be the game-winning three pointer, and he also played a major role in the game-saving defensive play.
Ja Morant scored a game-high 34 points on 14-31 field goal shooting, but his final miss is the one that will be remembered most because that shot was the difference between Memphis being up 1-0 or being down 0-1. In fairness to Morant, it must be noted that he scored 11 fourth quarter points to keep the Grizzlies alive, and he finished with a game-high 10 assists plus nine rebounds. Jaren Jackson Jr. had a playoff career-high 33 points, nailing hook shots in the paint while also connecting on 6-9 from three point range. De'Anthony Melton provided a spark with 14 points off of the bench and Brandon Clarke contributed 12 points plus nine rebounds, but the Grizzlies need more scoring/better shooting from Dillon Brooks (eight points, 3-13 field goal shooting) and Desmond Bane (nine points, 3-10 field goal shooting).
Many game stories focus on the fourth quarter--and this game had some key fourth quarter moments that deserve analysis--but the reality is that NBA games are often won or lost in the first half. Here, Memphis built a 42-29 lead early in the second quarter before a series of bad possessions at both ends of the court fueled a 10-0 Golden State run. The value of each possession in a playoff game should not be understated. The Grizzlies never enjoyed a double digit cushion the rest of the way, which set the stage for the Warriors being able to make just enough late game plays to win.
Instead of mentioning that the Grizzlies frittered away their 13 point lead, most game stories that discuss the first half at all will focus on what happened at the 1:18 mark of the second quarter: Clarke drove to the hoop, Draymond Green smacked him in the face, pulled him down by his jersey, and then reached out at the last second to brace Clarke's fall after fouling him twice on the same play. The game officials reviewed the play, and assessed a flagrant foul penalty 2 against Green, which meant that Green was automatically ejected. Green then ran around the court like a fool before eventually going to the locker room. I have never understood why players celebrate being ejected. A flagrant foul penalty 2 is distinguished by contact that is deemed "unnecessary and excessive," while a flagrant foul penalty 1 is assessed for contact that is determined to be unnecessary but not excessive. These are subjective determinations to some extent, but the officials look at the windup, impact, and follow through of a foul to determine if the foul is a common foul, a flagrant foul penalty 1, or a flagrant foul penalty 2. Contact above the neck area is deemed to be more serious--and more likely to be classified as a flagrant foul-- than contact below the neck (except for contact to the groin, of course). Green hit Clarke hard in the face, so there was clearly windup, impact, and follow through above the neck area. Green then yanked Clarke out of the air. The notion that Green should not get a flagrant foul penalty 2 because he did not just let Clarke hit the court with full force after fouling him twice makes no sense. Green had already done enough to earn an ejection before Clarke landed; if Green had not braced Clarke's fall, Green may have been looking at a suspension in addition to an ejection. If Green thinks that he is being unfairly targeted by the officials, then there is a simple solution for him: don't hit opponents in the face or groin. I guarantee that if he stops doing those two things he will stop being assessed flagrant fouls and ejections.
The Grizzlies led 54-53 before Green was ejected. They pushed that margin to six, 61-55, by halftime, but the Warriors actually did better in the second half with a big lineup than they did in the first half with a smaller lineup featuring Green at center. The Grizzlies usually win the rebounding battle, but the Warriors outrebounded them, 51-47. Six Warriors had more rebounds than Green, who finished with just four. An even more significant issue for the Grizzlies than not winning the rebounding battle is that the Grizzlies gave up several easy scoring opportunities to cutters. The Warriors deserve credit for being a team that moves well without the ball, but it was also apparent that the Grizzlies simply blew many defensive assignments. The rebounding and defensive issues also contributed to the Grizzlies playing at a slower than desirable pace; the Grizzlies are at their best when they get stops, control the boards, and then attack in transition before the opposing defense is set. Rebounding, defensive assignment discipline, and playing at a faster pace are three areas that the Grizzlies should be able to improve for game two and the rest of the series.
After the Grizzlies blew their double digit lead and after the Warriors went with a bigger second half lineup sans Green, the game was close the rest of the way. Thompson's three pointer with just under 37 seconds remaining put the Warriors up, 117-116. The Grizzlies should have pushed the ball up the court not only to try to score in transition but also to go for a two for one shot opportunity. Instead, the Grizzlies burned almost all 24 seconds off of the shot clock before Curry got a piece of Morant's layup attempt. The Grizzlies wasted an additional eight seconds before committing a foul, and then they lost nearly five more seconds before fouling Thompson, who is an excellent free throw shooter. Thompson missed both free throws, but after the second miss went out of bounds the officials were not able to determine who touched the ball last. Memphis controlled the ensuing jump ball, and called a timeout. The Grizzlies executed a wonderful inbounds play that resulted in Morant catching the ball on the move to the hoop. Morant made it all the way to the rim, but Thompson's contested hand influenced Morant to loft the shot too high, and it missed the mark as time expired. Morant stood in shocked disbelief by the basket stanchion as the Warriors celebrated.
The significance of not only winning game one but also stealing home court advantage should not be understated; the Grizzlies face an uphill battle now. However, the Grizzlies demonstrated during game one that there are matchup advantages that they can exploit throughout this series, and they also made some unforced errors that they are capable of correcting. Based on those matchup advantages, I predicted that Memphis would win this series in seven games. I expect Memphis to win game two, split the games at Golden State to reclaim home court advantage, and then take games five and seven at home in what may turn out to be the best and most competitive playoff series in 2022.
Labels: Draymond Green, Golden State Warriors, Ja Morant, Jaren Jackson Jr., Jordan Poole, Klay Thompson, Memphis Grizzlies, Stephen Curry
posted by David Friedman @ 2:08 AM
Memphis Versus Golden State Preview
Western Conference Second Round
#2 Memphis (56-26) vs. #3 Golden State (53-29)
Season series: Memphis, 3-1
Golden State can win if…the Warriors' three high-scoring guards--Stephen Curry, Klay Thompson, and Jordan Poole--continue to be both prolific and efficient, and if the Warriors can slow down Memphis' powerful offense. In Golden State's five game first round win against the injury-depleted Denver Nuggets, Curry (28.0 ppg, .500 FG%, .404 3FG%), Thompson (22.6 ppg, .506 FG%, .458 3FG%), and Poole (21.0 ppg, .548 FG%, .484 3FG%) each averaged at least 20 ppg while shooting at least .500 from the field and at least .400 from three point range. The Warriors not only hunted and exploited favorable matchups, but their guards did not have to expend much energy on defense.
However, neither of those advantages will exist versus Memphis. The Memphis guards are much better defensively than Denver's guards, plus Memphis' big men are better able to switch or trap. The Memphis guards are also much better offensively than Denver's guards, which will force Curry, Thompson, and Poole to exert more energy at that end of the court than they did in the first round.
If both teams play their best games, the Grizzlies will win more often than the Warriors will win. The games will probably be close and the series will probably go the distance, but this matchup is nothing like facing an undermanned Denver team whose best player--reigning regular season MVP Nikola Jokic--could be exploited on defense.
Memphis will win because…the Grizzlies have more collective offensive firepower than the Warriors, they are a better rebounding team, and they are a strong defensive team that can make things difficult for the Warriors' sharpshooters.
The Warriors have "name brand" offense led by Curry and Thompson, but collectively the Grizzlies play faster, score more, shoot almost as well, and benefit from extra possessions due to superior rebounding/committing fewer turnovers. The rise of Ja Morant has been impressive to watch. Morant won the 2022 Most Improved Player award, becoming the first player to receive that honor after winning Rookie of the Year. Morant scored 21.5 ppg during Memphis' six game first round series win over the Minnesota Timberwolves, but he struggled with his shooting (shooting splits of just .386/.200/.712). He led the Grizzlies with 10.5 apg, and he ranked second on the team with 8.7 rpg. Morant had 10 offensive rebounds in the first round, just one fewer than Minnesota's 6-11 All-Star Karl-Anthony Towns. Morant's regular season shooting splits were .493/.344/.761, and for Memphis to win this series it is important that he shoot better than he did versus Minnesota. Morant has hinted that he is not 100% physically, but the old school rule is if you are injured then you cannot play and if you can play then you are not injured, because by this point of the year every NBA player is hurt to some extent.
Desmond Bane was Memphis' leading scorer versus Minnesota (23.5 ppg, shooting splits of .495/.482/.900). Brandon Clarke and Dillon Brooks tied for third on the team in scoring (16.5 ppg), with Clarke shooting .679 from the field and leading the Grizzlies in rebounding (9.0 rpg). Jaren Jackson (11.8 ppg, 7.2 rpg, team-high 2.7 bpg) is a promising young big man who must learn how to stay out of foul trouble.
Golden State's best chance is if the moment and the stage turn out to be too much for the Grizzlies, resulting in the Grizzlies not playing at the level that they maintained throughout this season and during the first round versus the Timberwolves. I don't think that Morant will let that happen, and we have also seen that this team can maintain its poise and win even without Morant (the Grizzlies went 20-5 this season when Morant did not play).
Other things to consider: There is so much talk about Golden State's championship pedigree and "Death Lineup" that it is forgotten or ignored that Golden State sans Kevin Durant won one championship against a Cleveland team coached by David Blatt and missing injured stars Kyrie Irving and Kevin Love; in 2016, a healthier Cleveland team coached by Tyronn Lue overcame a 3-1 deficit to beat the Warriors in the NBA Finals, sending Draymond Green scurrying to his phone to beg Durant to come to the Bay Area because the Warriors needed him so desperately. Durant led the Warriors to back to back championships, and he may have carried the Warriors to a third title if he had not been slowed by injuries before rupturing his Achilles in game five of the 2019 NBA Finals. So, even when Curry, Thompson, and Green were fully healthy and in their primes they won exactly one title at the expense of a Cleveland team decimated by injuries. Let's not pretend that this version of the Warriors sans Durant is a dynasty like Bill Russell's Celtics (11 titles in 13 seasons), the Magic-Kareem Showtime Lakers (five titles in nine seasons), the Jordan-Pippen Bulls (six titles in eight seasons) or even the Shaq-Kobe Lakers (three straight titles). The Warriors are a very good team that is older, slower, and not as deep as the squad that won the 2015 championship; the Warriors are not nearly as good as the Durant-led powerhouse that won back to back titles in 2017-18.
The Grizzlies beat the Warriors in last year's NBA Play-In Tournament, and the Grizzlies improved even more this season than the Warriors did. The Grizzlies' biggest weaknesses are youth and inexperience--most evident when they make questionable decisions, including poor shot selection--but they make up for those weaknesses with toughness, physicality, and a commitment to playing hard at both ends of the court that is atypical for a young team that lacks playoff experience. This series is also an opportunity for Morant to make his case for being the league's best point guard by outplaying Curry individually while leading his team to victory.
Memphis will win in seven games.
Labels: Brandon Clarke, Desmond Bane, Draymond Green, Golden State Warriors, Ja Morant, Klay Thompson, Memphis Grizzlies, Stephen Curry
posted by David Friedman @ 12:12 PM
The Rise of Ja Morant and the Memphis Grizzlies
Ja Morant is rising--literally and figuratively. His incredible dunks and spectacular blocked shots have made him a staple feature of NBA highlights via mainstream media and social media. More significantly, his all-around play has elevated the Memphis Grizzlies from being the ninth place team in the West that reached the 2021 playoffs via the Play-In Tournament to the third place team in the West that is fighting with Golden State for second place. I thought that the ceiling for the 2021-22 Grizzlies would be sneaking into the playoffs again via the Play-In Tournament, but the Grizzlies are much better than I expected.
Before examining how Morant has become an All-NBA First Team caliber player, it is important to note that he is not the only reason for Memphis' success. The Grizzlies are 43-20 overall, but that includes a 12-2 record during games that Morant missed; Morant is a great player, but Memphis is demonstrably not just a one man show. The Grizzlies are a physical team that ranks first in the NBA in rebounding, blocked shots, and free throws attempted, but they present more challenges to opponents than just physicality; the Grizzlies also rank first in steals, and they rank second in scoring. Last season, the Grizzlies were an excellent rebounding team (ranking fourth in the league), but they ranked 12th in blocked shots, 15th in scoring, and 17th in free throws attempted. The paint presence provided by Steven Adams and Jaren Jackson Jr. is critically important for Memphis.
In short, the Grizzlies are an old-school type of team that rejects the notion that you have to take and make a lot of three pointers to be successful. The Grizzlies rank near the bottom of the league in three point field goal percentage (24th), three point field goals made (28th), and three point field goals attempted (24th).
The main downside for the Grizzlies is that, other than rebounding, their defensive numbers are mediocre, ranking 14th in points allowed and 18th in three point field goal percentage allowed--but they are close to a top 10 ranking in overall defensive field goal percentage (11th). In order to advance past the second round of the playoffs, the Grizzlies will have to improve defensively.
That being said, Morant is the Grizzlies' best player and the main engine for the team's success. There are many NBA players who are overrated and who are pumped up by their fans in the media, but Morant is without question one of the NBA's top five players this season. He should be a lock for the All-NBA First Team, and he should receive some MVP votes (not first place votes, but top five for sure). In just his third season, the 22 year old first-time All-Star has improved in many skill set areas, but the most notable difference is that he has increased his offensive efficiency while also increasing his offensive production, a combination that is very difficult to achieve. As a rookie, Morant averaged 17.8 ppg while shooting .477 from the field. Last season, Morant slightly increased his scoring to 19.1 ppg, but his field goal percentage dropped to .449--but this season Morant is averaging 27.6 ppg while shooting .498 from the field. Morant is scoring points in the paint at a rate matched or exceeded only by some of the best and most dominant big men of the past two decades.
It will be interesting to see if the 6-3, 174 pound Morant can maintain this kind of production without getting worn down and/or injured, but a guard who attacks the paint, forces the opposing defense to collapse, and then either finishes at the rim or else dishes to a teammate for a high percentage shot in the paint is an MVP-level/championship-level guard. This season, Morant is playing better than James Harden has ever played, and a good argument could be made that Morant is playing at least as well as Stephen Curry at his peak; what many commentators and fans fail to appreciate and understand is that a skill set based evaluation does not rely on "advanced" or "basic box score" numbers. The critical point is that Morant's skills and playing style translate well to playoff basketball. If Morant stays healthy and does not wear down, his playing style will be effective in the playoffs. He has only played in one playoff series/five career playoff games, but his small sample size averages are impressive: 30.2 ppg, 8.2 apg, 4.8 apg, shooting splits of .487/.323/.775. Morant's eighth seeded Grizzlies were outmatched against the Utah Jazz in the first round of the 2021 playoffs, but Morant did everything possible to put Memphis in the best possible position to win, and it is evident that with the right supporting cast Morant can be the best player on a team that makes a deep postseason run.
Championship teams attack the paint offensively and defend the paint defensively, as Milwaukee proved last season
while silencing critics who mocked Giannis Antetokounmpo's three point
shooting and denounced Coach Mike Budenholzer's defensive coverages that
emphasized protecting the paint. The Grizzlies have a championship-style attack the paint offense, but they still must develop a championship level defense, and they must demonstrate that they can perform at a high level at both ends of the court during a long playoff run.
Only time will tell if Morant and Memphis can meet those challenges. Meanwhile, from a skill set standpoint it is interesting to contrast Morant's playing style with Harden's. Harden relies on shooting a large number of three pointers, "flop and flail" antics that the NBA has belatedly begun to remove from the game, and driving not to score but to dish to three point shooters. When everything is clicking, when the pressure is not on, and when the opposition is weak, that style can result in gaudy numbers. In the playoffs, high variance strategies--such as shooting tons of three pointers--do not lead to championship success. Harden is the all-time king of empty calorie regular season statistics that do not translate to playoff success.
Curry is a much better player than Harden, but the myth that the Golden State Warriors won three NBA titles primarily because of Curry's three point shooting must be debunked; the Warriors would not have won those titles without playing elite defense, and Curry's three point shooting would not have been enough if the Warriors had not also been able to attack the paint. Further, the Warriors won two of those three titles after adding Kevin Durant, whose midrange game and ability to score in the paint were essential during those championship runs. It is not a coincidence that Durant won two Finals MVPs while Curry has yet to win a Finals MVP; it is also not a coincidence that Curry has only managed to lead the Warriors to "play out" of the Play-In Tournament since Durant left Golden State, though of course the Warriors will return to the playoffs this season now that Curry is again surrounded by multiple All-Star caliber players. Curry is not and never has been a Pantheon-level player who could carry a subpar team to the playoffs: contrast Curry's failure to reach the playoffs last season with the level that Kobe Bryant reached while leading the talent-depleted Lakers to the playoffs in 2006 and 2007. Curry has never been the dominant force for a championship team the
way that recent Pantheon players Shaquille O'Neal, Tim Duncan, Kobe
Bryant, and LeBron James were for their championship teams.
Does this mean that Morant has surpassed Curry on the all-time greatest players list? Of course not. Curry has played at a high level throughout his career, and he has been a key member of three championship teams. Curry's body of work is more significant than Morant's. Morant's career accomplishments have not passed Harden's yet, either, though it must always be remembered that Harden has received some awards and accolades that are not justified by his performances.
All we know now is that Morant has shown the ability to play at an MVP/championship level; Morant still has to prove that the can sustain that level of play during a deep postseason run and during a long career. If he does those things, he will easily surpass Harden, and he has a chance to be as impactful as Curry.
Labels: Golden State Warriors, Ja Morant, James Harden, Kevin Durant, Memphis Grizzlies, Stephen Curry
posted by David Friedman @ 8:24 PM
Grizzlies Eliminate Warriors in Final Game of Play-In Tournament
Form held in the NBA's Play-In Tournament until the final overtime moments of the final game, when the young ninth place Memphis Grizzlies took out the eighth place Golden State Warriors on Golden State's home court to earn the Western Conference's eighth playoff seed. Ja Morant led Memphis with 35 points, including two big baskets to clinch the 117-112 overtime victory, and he also had six assists, six rebounds, and four steals. Stephen Curry scored a game-high 39 points on 13-28 field goal shooting, but he also had a game-high seven turnovers as the Warriors coughed up the ball 21 times.
The Warriors' sloppy ballhandling hurt them at the start of the game. Golden State committed three turnovers in the first four minutes, and Memphis took an 18-6 lead while shooting 7-7 from the field. There is a natural tendency to focus on what happens at the end of a game, but that careless beginning meant that Golden State spent most of the game fighting an uphill battle.
The Warriors rallied to take a 27-26 lead before the end of the first quarter, but the Grizzlies were up 30-29 heading into the second quarter. When Golden State called a timeout at the 3:17 mark of the second quarter, the Grizzlies had extended their advantage to 57-42. Each of the 10 Grizzlies who had entered the game had scored as Memphis led 62-49 at halftime. Morant had 12 points, three rebounds, and three assists to pace the balanced attack. Stephen Curry scored 17 first half points, but he shot just 5-14 from the field. Memphis pushed the lead to 67-53 in the third quarter, but only clung to a 78-73 advantage heading into the fourth quarter.
Memphis seemed to be on the verge of securing victory before Golden State scored nine straight points to tie the score at 97 on two Curry free throws with 1:12 remaining in the fourth quarter. Kyle Anderson hit two free throws to put Memphis up 99-97 with 55 seconds left, but then Andrew Wiggins' layup tied the score at 99 at the 33 second mark. The Grizzlies committed a 24 second violation after a disjointed possession to give the Warriors a chance to win, but Draymond Green missed a layup as time expired in regulation.
The teams traded baskets in an exciting overtime period, but Memphis landed the final blows: a three pointer by Xavier Tillman, followed by a pair of Morant jumpers to make the score 114-109 with 4.5 seconds remaining. Jordan Poole hit a three pointer with 2.2 seconds left to trim the margin to two, but then Desmond Bane closed out the scoring with a three point play.
Curry has already been announced as an MVP finalist, meaning that he finished no lower than third in the voting. Imagine for a moment if, say, Kobe Bryant or Russell Westbrook had failed to win an elimination game at home against a lower seeded team, and thus missed the playoffs. What would the headline be? What would the narrative be? During the 2006 and 2007 seasons, Kobe Bryant was more productive and more dominant offensively than Curry was this season, and Bryant made the All-Defensive First Team during both of those campaigns. In 2006, Bryant's Lakers--with no other All-Stars--pushed the Phoenix Suns (led by MVP Steve Nash plus a host of All-Star caliber players) to seven games in the first round of the playoffs. Nevertheless, the media narrative was that Bryant could not win the MVP because his team did not win enough games. So, how can Curry have a top three finish in the MVP voting while playing for a team that finished eighth only to then "play out" of the playoffs? Nikola Jokic deserves to win the MVP, but part of me wants to see Curry win as lasting testament in the record book to the stupidity and hypocrisy of the MVP voters.
It was hard to miss the snide remarks about "playoff Westbrook" after his Wizards lost the first Play-In game versus Boston (a team that has appeared in the Eastern Conference Finals three of the past four years)--but Westbrook led his team to a blowout win against Indiana to clinch a playoff berth. "Playoff Westbrook" is a reality this season, while "Playoff Curry" is just wishful thinking this season. Where are the basketball geniuses who declared that the Warriors' offense functions better without Kevin Durant?
Curry put up impressive numbers versus the Grizzlies after his slow start, but the bottom line is that he is the "people's choice" for MVP and he could not deliver a win at home in an elimination game against a young team with no playoff experience. If Bryant or Westbrook had produced a similar result then they would be criticized for failing, even if Bryant scored 50 points or if Westbrook put up 20-20-20. It is fascinating how winning matters so much except for when the narrative is that winning does not matter.
Just to be crystal clear, I think that Curry is a great player--all I am saying is that the MVP voters repeatedly display stupidity and hypocrisy when they twist logic into knots to explain their inconsistent criteria. None of this is Curry's fault; he plays hard, and he is very productive--he was just not more valuable this season than Nikola Jokic or Giannis Antetokounmpo, who should have finished 1-2 in the balloting. If winning matters, if elevating a depleted roster to the playoffs matters, then Curry was demonstrably not as valuable this season as Westbrook. COVID-19 and injuries decimated the Wizards, but thanks to Westbrook averaging a triple double for the season--for a record fourth time in the past five seasons--the Wizards recovered to earn a playoff berth. Westbrook's 2020-21 campaign may be the most underrated great season in NBA history. Curry's 2020-21 campaign was productive and worthy of All-NBA Team recognition, but if he wins the MVP it may be the most overrated great season in NBA history.
Labels: Golden State Warriors, Ja Morant, Memphis Grizzlies, Stephen Curry
posted by David Friedman @ 12:50 AM
