76ers Make Magic Disappear, Chef Curry Cooks Clippers
The opener on the second night of NBA Play-In Tournament action featured two Eastern Conference teams that both did not meet expectations this season battling to secure the seventh seed. The shorthanded Philadelphia 76ers outlasted the offensively challenged Orlando Magic, 109-97. Tyrese Maxey led the 76ers with 31 points and six assists. Kelly Oubre Jr. added 19 points while shooting 5-10 from three point range, significant perimeter production considering that the Magic shot just 7-27 (.259) from beyond the arc. VJ Edgecombe contributed 19 points plus a game-high tying 11 rebounds as the 76ers held their own on the glass (only losing the rebound battle 41-40) despite being without the services of Joel Embiid, who is recovering from an appendectomy. Andre Drummond filled part of the void in the middle with 14 points, 10 rebounds, and a team-high tying three blocked shots off of the bench. Paul George had 16 points on 6-16 field goal shooting along with five rebounds and five assists.
Desmond Bane scored a game-high 34 points on 10-16 field goal shooting, but he did not have much help. Paolo Banchero, who is supposed to be Orlando's franchise player, scored 18 points on 7-22 field goal shooting while committing a game-high six turnovers. Anthony Black had a solid game off of the bench (13 points on 4-8 field goal shooting), but Franz Wagner did not do nearly enough (12 points on 5-11 field goal shooting), and Jalen Suggs (four points on 1-9 field goal shooting) misfired from all angles. It felt like anyone sitting courtside should wear a safety helmet to protect against Orlando's barrage of wildly missed shots, as the Magic shot 33-81 (.407) from the field. The first quarter set the tone for the entire game, with the 76ers
leading 28-24 after the first 12 minutes despite shooting just 10-25
(.400) from the field; the Magic shot 9-24 (.375) from the field. If you watched the game, you know that the quality of play did not improve--and if you did not watch the game you are probably not yearning for a detailed account of all of the missed shots. In TV parlance, if this were part of a highlight package it would be "score only."
Who would be silly enough to pick this lethargic, flawed Magic team to win a road game versus the 76ers? Oh, that would be me. In my defense, it's not like the 76ers are particularly impressive; they did not build a double digit lead against the Orlando Magical Bricklayers until the third quarter, so it will be interesting to see how the 76ers fare in a first round matchup versus the surprisingly good Boston Celtics. Meanwhile, the Magic have one last chance to make the playoffs if they beat Charlotte on Friday, but the Magic are not likely to find much success when confronted by Charlotte's size, stingy defense, and three point shooting. I still feel good about picking Charlotte to capture the eighth seed.
In the nightcap, Stephen Curry turned into the superhero known as Chef Curry and he cooked the L.A. Clippers with a game-high 35 points as his Golden State Warriors rallied from a 13 point fourth quarter deficit to post a 126-121 win. The Clippers, who started the season 6-21 before rallying to qualify for the Play-In Tournament, are now eliminated from playoff contention, while the Warriors must beat the Phoenix Suns on Friday night to claim the Western Conference's eighth seed. Kristaps Porzingis and Gui Santos scored 20 points each for the Warriors. Bennedict Mathurin led the Clippers with 23 points.
The Clippers jumped out to a 12-2 lead versus the Warriors, the only Play-In Tournament team with a losing record this season. The Warriors had lost nine games in a row to the Clippers in L.A. and seemed to be well on their way to a 10th setback--but then they authored their own 12-2 run to tie the score at 14 and that set the tone for the rest of the game: the Clippers repeatedly built double digit leads to seemingly take command before collapsing and letting the Warriors back in the game. The collapses largely correlated with Kawhi Leonard not being in the game: Leonard, who finished with 21 points on 8-17 field goal shooting, was the only Clippers' starter with a positive plus/minus number (+6); every other Clippers' starter had a plus/minus number of -7 or worse. The first half ended with Leonard driving coast to coast through Golden
State's entire team as if they were a bunch of elementary school kids,
culminating in a two-handed dunk, after which Leonard shook his head as
if to say, "You've to be kidding me if you think that is enough to even
slow me down." The Clippers led 61-53 at halftime.
Curry put on a vintage show in the third quarter, erupting for 16 points on 6-8 field goal shooting to single-handedly keep the Warriors in the game, but after Mathurin's two free throws pushed the Clippers' lead to 98-85 at the 9:53 mark of the fourth quarter the Warriors seemed to be running out of time and energy until Curry saved the day, along with timely 4-4 three point shooting from Al Horford and suffocating defense on Leonard by Draymond Green. Curry scored 11 fourth quarter points on 4-6 field goal shooting while posting a +15 plus/minus number in the final stanza, and the 39 year old Horford scored 12 of his 14 points in the fourth quarter. Green authored his typical "triple single" (seven points, team-high nine assists, six rebounds), had a 0 plus/minus number, and did not score in the fourth quarter, but he stole the ball from Leonard twice in the closing moments, and played a major role in holding Leonard scoreless in the fourth quarter until Leonard had a meaningless dunk with 16.9 seconds remaining.
L.A. coach Ty Lue was disgusted after the game (though he used a different phrase when asked to describe his feelings), lamenting "We had the game in our hands" but gave it away by making numerous "silly plays." Not surprisingly, Golden State coach Steve Kerr was thrilled with the result, and he thanked NBA Commissioner Adam Silver for creating the Play-In Tournament, noting that otherwise the Warriors' season would already be over--and that raises an interesting point, albeit not the point that Kerr wanted to make: over the course of the 82 game regular season, the Clippers won five more games than the Warriors, but because Curry and Horford got hot in the fourth quarter of one game the Clippers are eliminated while the Warriors have a chance to make the playoffs. Phoenix finished eight games ahead of Golden State during the regular season, but the Warriors can wipe out months of work by beating the Suns just once.
This format may work out great for Kerr, his team, and his team's fans this season, but the message that this sends is that the regular season does not matter--and this message, conveyed by the league office, team executives, and the players themselves in many ways during recent years, is how we have ended up with tanking, load management, and a league whose regular season is becoming increasingly unwatchable. Instead of the NBA having a great regular season, the NBA produces a mediocre regular season and hopes that some excitement in the Play-In Tournament and the playoffs will be enough to satisfy the fans who pay high ticket prices and streaming fees.
Labels: Desmond Bane, Draymond Green, Golden State Warriors, Kawhi Leonard, L.A. Clippers, Orlando Magic, Paolo Banchero, Philadelphia 76ers, Stephen Curry, Tyrese Maxey
posted by David Friedman @ 10:44 AM
New York and Orlando Advance to the NBA Cup Semifinals
The Orlando Magic defeated the Miami Heat 117-108 in the first of the 2025 NBA Cup quarterfinals games. Last year, the Magic lost to the Milwaukee Bucks in the NBA Cup quarterfinals, but this year their offseason addition of Desmond Bane paid big dividends as he erupted for a game-high 37 points on 14-24 field goal shooting, including 6-9 from three point range for a team that ranked 30th (last) in the league in three point field goal percentage last season. Jalen Suggs contributed 20 points, four assists, and two steals, Paolo Banchero added 18 points, seven rebounds, and four assists, and Wendell Carter Jr. had 14 points plus a game-high 10 rebounds. The Magic won the rebounding battle 47-39 and they outscored the Heat in the paint 60-52. Norman Powell led a balanced Heat offense with 21 points on 8-19 field goal shooting, followed closely by Tyler Herro (20 points), Bam Adebeyo (19 points, team-high eight rebounds), and Andrew Wiggins (19 points).
In my December 3 NBA Cup article, I picked Orlando to beat Miami, but that was before the Magic's Franz Wagner suffered a left high ankle sprain that is expected to sideline him for several weeks. Wagner is averaging 22.7 ppg, 6.1 rpg, and 3.7 apg in 24 games this season, and initially the Magic struggled without him as the Heat jumped to a 15-0 lead by the 9:16 mark of the first quarter. The Magic outscored the Heat 17-15 the rest of the way in the first quarter, and then won the second quarter 39-27 to pull to within 57-56 by halftime. The Magic took the lead early in the third quarter before Bane fouled Adebayo on a three point attempt at the 8:53 mark. Adebayo made the first two free throws before missing the third, but Adebayo scooped up the rebound and Powell drained a three pointer a few seconds later to complete the rare five point possession, putting the Heat up, 69-66. Suggs answered with a three pointer to tie the score, and the Magic never trailed again. The Magic waste too many possessions and make too many careless plays to be a championship team, but Bane's 25 second half points proved to be too much for the Heat to overcome.
Even with this loss, the Heat are still one of the NBA's pleasant surprises. They are playing at the fastest pace in franchise history, ranking
third in the league in scoring (122.3 ppg) prior to this game. Jimmy Butler forced his way out of Miami last season and he landed with the Golden State Warriors, but so far this season the Heat have a better record than the Warriors. Butler's video message to Warriors' fans after he joined the team--"Championship coming soon"--is not aging well. Miami coach Erik Spoelstra proved that he can successfully handle the egos on a super team while leading the Heat to NBA titles in 2012 and 2013 with LeBron James, Dwyane Wade, and Chris Bosh forming a "Big Three," and he has also shown that he can maximize the output of a team that does not have even one superstar.
In the second game of Amazon Prime's NBA Cup quarterfinals doubleheader, the New York Knicks beat the Toronto Raptors 117-101. Jalen Brunson poured in a game-high 35 points on 13-19 field goal shooting, including 6-9 from beyond the arc. He had 20 first quarter points on 7-9 field goal shooting to help the Knicks overcome an otherwise slow start. An alleged problem for the Knicks last season was that coach Tom Thiboedeau relied too heavily on his starters, but the formula that carried them to the Eastern Conference Finals for the first time since 2000 also worked in this game for coach Mike Brown: the Knicks' starters scored 98 of the team's 117 points while four of New York's starters played at least 36 minutes each. Josh Hart contributed 21 points, six rebounds, and four assists. Mikal Bridges had 15 points, five rebounds, and four assists, Karl-Anthony Towns added 14 points, a game-high 16 rebounds, and two blocked shots, and OG Anunoby chipped in 13 points plus six rebounds. The Knicks outrebounded the Raptors 48-37, and they shot .525 (42-80) from the field while holding the Raptors to .433 (39-90) field goal shooting. Brandon Ingram led the Raptors with 31 points on 11-18 field goal shooting while also grabbing six rebounds and dishing six assists. Jamal Shead made his first start of the season in place of the injured Immanuel Quickley, and he scored 18 points while passing for a game-high eight assists. Scottie Barnes scored just 13 points on 6-18 field goal shooting, tying his second lowest point total of the season.
This game played out the way that I expected; in my aforementioned December 3 NBA cup article, I picked New York to beat Toronto by double digits, noting that Toronto "feasted on a weak schedule loaded with sub-.500 teams, and they lost to the Knicks 116-94 on November 30." The Raptors gave their fans some early (and false) hope by taking a 17-11 first quarter lead and they were still up 39-35 at the end of the first quarter--but the Knicks blitzed the Raptors 34-13 in the second quarter, shooting .583 (14-24) from the field while holding the Raptors to .238 (5-21) field goal shooting. The Raptors outscored the Knicks 49-48 in the second half, but that was not nearly enough to overcome their second quarter collapse.
The Knicks and Magic will play on Saturday December 13 in Las Vegas to earn the right to represent the Eastern Conference in the NBA Cup Championship Game.
Labels: Desmond Bane, Jalen Brunson, Miami Heat, NBA Cup, New York Knicks, Orlando Magic, Toronto Raptors
posted by David Friedman @ 12:51 AM
Magic Rout Hawks and Warriors Edge Grizzlies to Clinch Playoff Berths
The NBA Play-In Tournament lived up (or down) to my expectations in the opener, as the physical, defensive-minded Orlando Magic stomped an Atlanta Hawks team that struggled to score and then compounded that problem by playing very little defense. The Magic won 120-95 and the game was not as close as the final margin suggested: the Magic outrebounded the Hawks 54-42, outscored the Hawks in the paint 58-52, and held the Hawks to 32-82 field goal shooting (.381), including 4-21 (.190) from three point range. The Magic's bench outscored the Hawks' bench 57-30.
Cole Anthony scored a team-high 26 points off of the bench for Orlando, and he passed for six assists without committing a turnover in 20 minutes of action. Wendell Carter Jr. added 19 points, and Paolo Banchero had a strong all-around game (17 points, nine rebounds, team-high seven assists) even though he shot just 4-13 from the field. Anthony Black contributed 16 points, four rebounds, and four assists as a reserve while posting a game-best +34 plus/minus number.
Trae Young scored a game-high 28 points, but he shot just 8-21 from the field and had the second worst plus/minus number (-22) in the game. Young capped off his performance by getting ejected for disrespecting a
referee with 4:47 remaining in the game; in his post-game press
conference, Young complained about his team not getting a fair whistle,
even though the Magic committed more fouls (25-18) and the Hawks shot
more free throws (34-27). I have never understood or agreed with the "Ice Trae" hype; yes, he has hit some exciting shots and he posts gaudy statistics for points and assists, but he is an undersized, inefficient offensive player who puts up empty calorie numbers while not playing a lick of defense for a mediocre team. Young has a 2-3 career playoff series record in seven seasons, and his Hawks have not won a playoff series since 2021. The notion that he is a great clutch player is refuted by his woeful playoff career shooting (.402 from the field, including .297 from three point range). He has never shot better than .441 from the field in a playoff series, and he shot worse than .400 from the field in two of his five playoff series.
The Magic outscored the Hawks 17-2 in the final 4:58 of the first quarter and led 32-17 after the first 12 minutes. There is so much talk about "clutch time" statistics, but the reality is that the NBA is often a first quarter league, and that was true in this game: the Magic outscored the Hawks by 15 in the first quarter, and then outscored the Hawks by 10 the rest of the way. The Magic built a 22 point first half lead before settling for a 61-47 halftime edge. The Hawks cut the margin to 71-68 on a Caris LeVert layup with 3:00 left in the third quarter, but the Magic outscored the Hawks 21-13 in the next seven minutes to reestablish a double digit lead that they never relinquished the rest of the way.
The Magic earned the seventh seed in the Eastern Conference, and will face the Boston Celtics in the first round of the playoffs, while the Hawks will host the winner of the Chicago-Miami game for the eighth seed in the Eastern Conference.
The second game of Tuesday night's NBA Play-In Tournament doubleheader looked like it was heading toward a blowout win for Golden State after the Warriors sprinted to a 55-35 second quarter lead versus Memphis, but the Grizzlies roared back to cut the margin to single digits at the 8:43 mark of the third quarter. The Grizzlies led 96-94 early in the fourth quarter, and did not trail by more than six points the rest of the way. I predicted that the Warriors would win "a close, hard fought game," and the Warriors eventually prevailed, 121-116.
Jimmy Butler added another chapter to the legend of "Playoff Jimmy" (or "Play-In Jimmy," in this instance), pouring in a game-high 38 points on 12-20 field goal shooting while also contributing seven rebounds, six assists, and three steals. The way that he forced his way out of Miami in the middle of this season instead of honoring his contract stinks, but there is no denying his talent. Stephen Curry shot a Trae Young-like 9-22 from the field, but he made all 13 of his free throws to finish with 37 points while also grabbing a team-high eight rebounds, passing for four assists, and committing just one turnover in 39 minutes.
Desmond Bane scored a team-high 30 points on 11-21 field goal shooting. Ja Morant added 22 points, but he had just three assists while committing a game-high five turnovers. Even more worrisome for the Grizzlies is that he scored just four points after suffering a nasty sprained ankle while hitting a 10 foot jumper with 4:25 left in the third quarter and the Warriors clinging to an 82-80 lead. Morant was fouled on the play and made the free throw to bring the Grizzlies to within one point. Jaren Jackson Jr. (18 points, six rebounds, four assists) and rookie Zach Edey (14 points, game-high 17 rebounds) played solidly in the paint but the Grizzlies needed them to shoot better from the field than 6-15 and 4-11 respectively.
The Grizzlies outrebounded the Warriors 50-39, but they squandered those extra possessions by losing the turnover battle, 19-10. If the undersized Warriors get outrebounded by a team that does not handle the ball with the dexterity of Edward Scissorhands they will likely lose, so they are facing quite the challenge as the seventh seed in the Western Conference with a first round matchup versus a Houston team that led the NBA in rebounding while ranking 11th in fewest turnovers. The Rockets are bigger, stronger, and younger than the Warriors while also having homecourt advantage.
The Grizzlies will host the winner of the Dallas-Sacramento game for the eighth seed in the Western Conference. Morant's swift recovery from his ankle injury is important, but the Grizzlies should have enough firepower to beat Dallas or Sacramento--and they don't have enough firepower to pose much of a threat to the top-seeded Oklahoma City Thunder.
The best news is that the Play-In Tournament will soon be over, and the playoffs will begin on Saturday April 19.
Labels: Atlanta Hawks, Cole Anthony, Desmond Bane, Golden State Warriors, Ja Morant, Jimmy Butler, Memphis Grizzlies, Orlando Magic, Paolo Banchero, Play-In Tournament, Stephen Curry, Trae Young, Wendell Carter Jr.
posted by David Friedman @ 2:32 AM
Grizzlies Rout Lakers, Send Series Back to L.A. for Game Six
The L.A. Lakers barely survived at home in game four versus the Memphis Grizzlies, and they provided little resistance on the road in game five, losing 116-99. If the Lakers and their fans assume that winning game six at home is a lock then they may be in for a very unpleasant surprise, because--despite the hype and the weird narratives that ignore evidence and common sense--the Lakers are the same team that they have been throughout the season: they do not consistently play hard or smart, which is why they needed to survive the Play-In Tournament to qualify for the playoffs.
The undersized Grizzlies--who are without the services of injured big men Steven Adams and Brandon Clarke--outscored the Lakers in the paint 56-48 while keeping the rebound battle nearly level (the Lakers won, 54-52). The 2023 NBA Defensive Player of the Year Jaren Jackson Jr. scored 18 points and tied for the team lead with 10 rebounds. Desmond Bane (33 points, 10 rebounds, five assists) and Ja Morant (31 points, 10 rebounds, seven assists) outplayed the Lakers' two 75th Anniversary Team players: Anthony Davis did his part (31 points, game-high 19 rebounds), but LeBron James finished with just 15 points on 5-17 field goal shooting, along with 10 rebounds, five assists, and a game-high five turnovers. Instead of attacking the paint, James settled for three pointers and he shot just 1-9 from beyond the arc. James is 38 years old and cannot reasonably be expected to dominate every game, but when James is having an off game his highly-touted supporting cast must pick up the slack.
The Lakers have received a lot of praise regarding the three players who they acquired in exchange for Russell Westbrook. Here is how the "tremendous trio" did versus Memphis in game five:
D'Angelo Russell had 11 points on 4-11 field goal shooting, but he did dish out a game-high 10 assists. He is averaging 13.8 ppg on .367 field goal shooting (25-68) during this series.
Jarred Vanderbilt had seven points on 3-4 field goal shooting. He is averaging 6.8 ppg on .609 field goal shooting (14-23) during this series.
Malik Beasley had six points on 2-6 field
goal shooting. He is averaging 3.2 ppg on .278 field goal shooting (5-18) in during this series.
Russell is an erratic, inconsistent offensive player who is a subpar defensive player. Vanderbilt is a scrappy defender whose offensive game mainly consists of picking up loose change in the paint. Beasley is barely in the rotation; in this game, he posted a plus/minus number of -23 in just 11 minutes.
The Lakers offered little defensive resistance in the first quarter, and they trailed 38-24 at the end of the first 12 minutes. As is often the case, the tone set in the first quarter presaged how the rest of the game would unfold.
Game six will be fascinating. The Lakers are consistently inconsistent, while the Grizzlies are young, impetuous and volatile. Will LeBron James have the necessary energy--and mindset--to attack the paint? Will Anthony Davis be a force in the paint? Will any of the highly touted role players acquired in exchange for Russell Westbrook have a meaningful impact? Will the undermanned and undersized Grizzlies scrap their way to a win and reclaim homecourt advantage?
Labels: Anthony Davis, Desmond Bane, Ja Morant, Jaren Jackson Jr., L.A. Lakers, LeBron James, Memphis Grizzlies
posted by David Friedman @ 1:23 AM
Warriors Outrebound, Outshoot, and Outlast Grizzlies to Advance to the Western Conference Finals
Small ball and three point shooting may grab the headlines, but when push comes to shove--literally--size matters in the NBA. After being pushed around, outrebounded, and embarrassed by the Memphis Grizzlies in game five the Golden State Warriors responded by going big and outrebounding the Grizzlies 70-44 en route to a 110-96 victory. Acting head coach Mike Brown--who is taking Steve Kerr's place while Kerr is in COVID-19 health and safety protocols--inserted Kevon Looney in the starting lineup. Looney grabbed a game-high 22 rebounds--including 11 in the first quarter, matching Memphis' total--to nullify Memphis' advantage in size/physicality. Draymond Green had 15 rebounds, and Andrew Wiggins added 11 rebounds. Steven Adams led Memphis with 10 rebounds and he had the best plus/minus number among the team's starters (-6) but he was outnumbered in the paint.
The Warriors were sloppy with the ball (17 turnovers) and they shot just .394 from the field, but their huge rebounding advantage coupled with the Grizzlies' poor shooting (.354) proved to be a winning formula. Klay Thompson led the Warriors with 30 points on 11-22 field goal shooting, but Stephen Curry shot just 10-27 from the field to accumulate 29 points. Jordan Poole, the newest "Splash Brother," drizzled his way to 12 points on 4-15 field goal shooting. Dillon Brooks posted Curry-like numbers (30 points, 11-28 field goal shooting), while Desmond Bane nearly matched Thompson's output (25 points, 9-16 field goal shooting), but the Warriors' extra possessions proved to be too much to overcome.
The big "What if?" for this series is the knee injury that Ja Morant suffered in game three. Morant scored 47 points in Memphis' game two win and he averaged 38.3 ppg during the series. The Grizzlies ranked second in the NBA in scoring this season (115.6 ppg), but in the final three games of this series without Morant the Grizzlies failed to break the 100 point barrier twice. Memphis' game five blowout win was an aberration--not from an effort standpoint, but from a shooting and scoring standpoint--and the harsh reality is that without Morant the Grizzlies just could not generate enough offense to win game six even after holding the Warriors to sub-.400 field goal shooting.
Despite being shorthanded and despite losing the battle on the boards, the Grizzlies kept the game close until the fourth quarter, when Curry finally got hot (4-7 field goal shooting, 11 points) and the Warriors outscored the Grizzlies 32-19.
The Warriors are back in the Western Conference Finals for the first time since 2019, when they lost to the Toronto Raptors in the NBA Finals after Kevin Durant and Klay Thompson both suffered serious injuries. They will get a few days off before facing the game seven winner of the Phoenix-Dallas series.
Labels: Desmond Bane, Dillon Brooks, Golden State Warriors, Kevon Looney, Klay Thompson, Memphis Grizzlies, Stephen Curry
posted by David Friedman @ 1:37 AM
Grizzlies Rout Warriors, Send Series Back to Golden State for Game Six
The Golden State Warriors went to Memphis on Wednesday night expecting a coronation, but instead of being crowned they got clowned. The Grizzlies scored the first five points of the game in less than a minute, never trailed, led by as many as 55 points, and defeated the Warriors 134-95 in a game that was not as close as the final score may suggest; this was a "name the number" game: the Grizzlies could have won by 40, 50, or 60 points if they had so desired. Ja Morant missed his second straight game due to a bone bruise in his knee that will reportedly keep him out of action for the rest of the playoffs, and the Grizzlies again demonstrated--as they did throughout the regular season--that they are much more than a one man team. No Memphis player played more than 25 minutes, but seven scored in double figures, led by three players who had 21 points each (Desmond Bane, Jaren Jackson Jr., and Tyus Jones). Steven Adams had a game-high 13 rebounds as the Grizzlies annihilated the Warriors 55-37 on the boards. Adams missed four straight playoff games due to a combination of COVID-19 and also the coaching staff deciding to play small, but he had 15 rebounds in 27 minutes as the Grizzlies led for most of game four before blowing it at the end, and he was similarly dominant in the paint in game five.
Shooting may not travel, but defense and rebounding do travel. The Grizzlies are big, they are physical, and they play excellent
defense. They have matchup advantages against Golden State, and they
have a chance to win this series even without Morant.
Perhaps that last sentence sounds bizarre or even crazy because of Golden State's "Death Lineup" and "championship DNA," so keep in mind that the nucleus of this team--with all of their vaunted "championship DNA"--blew a 3-1 lead in the 2016 NBA Finals. The popular perceptions of this series do not match up with reality. The "Death" in the Warriors' "Death Lineup" was mostly provided by two-time Finals MVP Kevin Durant, who also provided two thirds of the Warriors' three championships; the only other title came at the expense of a Cleveland team missing two of their three All-Stars, the same Cleveland team that--when healthy--beat the Warriors in the 2016 Finals.
Isn't a big part of "championship DNA" winning a series as quickly as possible to conserve energy and avoid injuries? Either the Warriors' "championship DNA" is missing a few strands, or these teams are more evenly matched than the "experts" suspect.
Klay Thompson led the Warriors with 19 points on 7-12 field goal shooting, but he also had a staggering -45 plus/minus number. Jonathan Kuminga added 17 points. Two-time regular season MVP Stephen Curry scored 14 points, shot 4-10 from the field, did not score in the second half, and posted a tidy -37 plus/minus number. Draymond Green produced a "triple single" (five points, seven rebounds, five assists), and a -32 plus/minus number. Jordan Poole scored three points on 1-6 field goal shooting. The "Splash Brothers" trio of Curry, Thompson and Poole barely created a ripple.
The Warriors will play better in game six at home--they could hardly play worse--but any notion that this will be easy is false. The Grizzlies came within a missed layup at the buzzer of winning game one, and they outplayed the Warriors for the vast majority of game four; the 3-2 margin in Golden State's favor could easily be 3-2 in Memphis' favor, and the Grizzlies are unlikely to show up for game six just happy to be there: the Grizzlies will play hard, and if just a little bit of their shooting travels with them they have a legitimate opportunity to bring this series back to Memphis for game seven, which could provide a great test of what exactly is in Golden State's "championship DNA" when Durant is not around to save the day.
Labels: Desmond Bane, Draymond Green, Golden State Warriors, Jaren Jackson Jr., Klay Thompson, Memphis Grizzlies, Stephen Curry, Steven Adams, Tyus Jones
posted by David Friedman @ 1:34 AM
Memphis Versus Golden State Preview
Western Conference Second Round
#2 Memphis (56-26) vs. #3 Golden State (53-29)
Season series: Memphis, 3-1
Golden State can win if…the Warriors' three high-scoring guards--Stephen Curry, Klay Thompson, and Jordan Poole--continue to be both prolific and efficient, and if the Warriors can slow down Memphis' powerful offense. In Golden State's five game first round win against the injury-depleted Denver Nuggets, Curry (28.0 ppg, .500 FG%, .404 3FG%), Thompson (22.6 ppg, .506 FG%, .458 3FG%), and Poole (21.0 ppg, .548 FG%, .484 3FG%) each averaged at least 20 ppg while shooting at least .500 from the field and at least .400 from three point range. The Warriors not only hunted and exploited favorable matchups, but their guards did not have to expend much energy on defense.
However, neither of those advantages will exist versus Memphis. The Memphis guards are much better defensively than Denver's guards, plus Memphis' big men are better able to switch or trap. The Memphis guards are also much better offensively than Denver's guards, which will force Curry, Thompson, and Poole to exert more energy at that end of the court than they did in the first round.
If both teams play their best games, the Grizzlies will win more often than the Warriors will win. The games will probably be close and the series will probably go the distance, but this matchup is nothing like facing an undermanned Denver team whose best player--reigning regular season MVP Nikola Jokic--could be exploited on defense.
Memphis will win because…the Grizzlies have more collective offensive firepower than the Warriors, they are a better rebounding team, and they are a strong defensive team that can make things difficult for the Warriors' sharpshooters.
The Warriors have "name brand" offense led by Curry and Thompson, but collectively the Grizzlies play faster, score more, shoot almost as well, and benefit from extra possessions due to superior rebounding/committing fewer turnovers. The rise of Ja Morant has been impressive to watch. Morant won the 2022 Most Improved Player award, becoming the first player to receive that honor after winning Rookie of the Year. Morant scored 21.5 ppg during Memphis' six game first round series win over the Minnesota Timberwolves, but he struggled with his shooting (shooting splits of just .386/.200/.712). He led the Grizzlies with 10.5 apg, and he ranked second on the team with 8.7 rpg. Morant had 10 offensive rebounds in the first round, just one fewer than Minnesota's 6-11 All-Star Karl-Anthony Towns. Morant's regular season shooting splits were .493/.344/.761, and for Memphis to win this series it is important that he shoot better than he did versus Minnesota. Morant has hinted that he is not 100% physically, but the old school rule is if you are injured then you cannot play and if you can play then you are not injured, because by this point of the year every NBA player is hurt to some extent.
Desmond Bane was Memphis' leading scorer versus Minnesota (23.5 ppg, shooting splits of .495/.482/.900). Brandon Clarke and Dillon Brooks tied for third on the team in scoring (16.5 ppg), with Clarke shooting .679 from the field and leading the Grizzlies in rebounding (9.0 rpg). Jaren Jackson (11.8 ppg, 7.2 rpg, team-high 2.7 bpg) is a promising young big man who must learn how to stay out of foul trouble.
Golden State's best chance is if the moment and the stage turn out to be too much for the Grizzlies, resulting in the Grizzlies not playing at the level that they maintained throughout this season and during the first round versus the Timberwolves. I don't think that Morant will let that happen, and we have also seen that this team can maintain its poise and win even without Morant (the Grizzlies went 20-5 this season when Morant did not play).
Other things to consider: There is so much talk about Golden State's championship pedigree and "Death Lineup" that it is forgotten or ignored that Golden State sans Kevin Durant won one championship against a Cleveland team coached by David Blatt and missing injured stars Kyrie Irving and Kevin Love; in 2016, a healthier Cleveland team coached by Tyronn Lue overcame a 3-1 deficit to beat the Warriors in the NBA Finals, sending Draymond Green scurrying to his phone to beg Durant to come to the Bay Area because the Warriors needed him so desperately. Durant led the Warriors to back to back championships, and he may have carried the Warriors to a third title if he had not been slowed by injuries before rupturing his Achilles in game five of the 2019 NBA Finals. So, even when Curry, Thompson, and Green were fully healthy and in their primes they won exactly one title at the expense of a Cleveland team decimated by injuries. Let's not pretend that this version of the Warriors sans Durant is a dynasty like Bill Russell's Celtics (11 titles in 13 seasons), the Magic-Kareem Showtime Lakers (five titles in nine seasons), the Jordan-Pippen Bulls (six titles in eight seasons) or even the Shaq-Kobe Lakers (three straight titles). The Warriors are a very good team that is older, slower, and not as deep as the squad that won the 2015 championship; the Warriors are not nearly as good as the Durant-led powerhouse that won back to back titles in 2017-18.
The Grizzlies beat the Warriors in last year's NBA Play-In Tournament, and the Grizzlies improved even more this season than the Warriors did. The Grizzlies' biggest weaknesses are youth and inexperience--most evident when they make questionable decisions, including poor shot selection--but they make up for those weaknesses with toughness, physicality, and a commitment to playing hard at both ends of the court that is atypical for a young team that lacks playoff experience. This series is also an opportunity for Morant to make his case for being the league's best point guard by outplaying Curry individually while leading his team to victory.
Memphis will win in seven games.
Labels: Brandon Clarke, Desmond Bane, Draymond Green, Golden State Warriors, Ja Morant, Klay Thompson, Memphis Grizzlies, Stephen Curry
posted by David Friedman @ 12:12 PM
