20 Second Timeout

2023-24 Western Conference Preview

Fully healthy for the first time in several seasons, the Denver Nuggets stormed through the 2023 playoffs with a 16-4 record, culminating in a five game rout of the Miami Heat in the NBA Finals. Nikola Jokic's bid to win a third straight regular season MVP--a feat not accomplished since Larry Bird's 1984-86 trifecta--fell short, but he captured his first NBA Finals MVP. The Nuggets are well-positioned to be the first team to win back to back NBA titles since Kevin Durant led the Warriors to the top in 2017-18.

The Phoenix Suns shipped out Chris Paul and acquired Bradley Beal, so instead of having an injury-prone pass-first guard they now have an injury-prone shoot-first guard. Beal has played in 60 games or less in each of the past four seasons. As part of the three-team deal headlined by Damian Lillard going from Portland to Milwaukee, the Suns dealt Deandre Ayton for Jusuf Nurkic, Nassir Little, Keon Johnson, and Grayson Allen. The Suns' core four players look impressive on paper, but Kevin Durant, Devin Booker, Bradley Beal, and Jusuf Nurkic have all missed a ton of games in recent seasons--and their collective lack of durability is even more concerning because of the Suns' lack of depth. 

The Sacramento Kings did not make any big offseason moves, and they do not have a big name superstar, but they have at least as much upside potential as any other Western Conference team.

The much-hyped "new look" L.A. Lakers turned over nearly half of their roster, and they broke up the "tremendous trio" that they obtained in exchange for Russell Westbrook: the Lakers declined their option to sign "laser" Malik Beasley, who then joined the Milwaukee Bucks. It is fascinating that the Lakers made significant changes to a roster that so many media members praised just a few months ago.

The Golden State Warriors abandoned the "two timelines" approach and went all-in with their championship core group of Stephen Curry, Klay Thompson, Draymond Green, Andrew Wiggins, and Kevon Looney supplemented by the acquisition of Chris Paul.

The 2024 Western Conference Finals will most likely include two of the five teams listed above; the Nuggets are the class of the West until proven otherwise, while the Suns will be formidable if they stay healthy, and the Kings could surpass everyone but the Nuggets if they tighten up their defense while remaining explosive on offense. The Lakers are Warriors are lurking in the wings if injuries, chemistry issues or other challenges derail one or more of the top three teams.

This preview has the same format as my Eastern Conference Preview; the following eight teams are ranked based on their likelihood of making it to the NBA Finals:

1) Denver Nuggets: Until proven otherwise, the Nuggets are the team to beat not just in the Western Conference but in the NBA. In last year's playoffs, the Nuggets faced two teams that "nobody wants to face"--the star-studded Phoenix Suns and the supposedly rising L.A. Lakers--and they took care of the Suns in six games before sweeping the Lakers. 

The Nuggets will miss Bruce Brown and Jeff Green, who signed free agent deals with Indiana and Houston respectively, but it would be odd to suggest that the loss of just those two role players would cause Denver to tumble from the summit. The Nuggets have an excellent starting lineup anchored by Nikola Jokic, who is seeking his third regular season MVP in four seasons after averaging 24.5 ppg, 11.8 rpg, and a career-high 9.8 apg with shooting splits of .632/.383/.822 during the 2022-23 regular season. He ranked second in the league in rebounding, second in assists, eighth in field goal percentage, and first in triple doubles (29). Jokic is now sixth on the all-time list with 105 regular season triple doubles. He finished second to Joel Embiid in regular season MVP voting after earning the honor in 2021 and 2022. Jokic averaged 30.0 ppg, 13.5 rpg, and 9.5 apg in the playoffs with shooting splits of .548/.461/.799, and he was even better in the NBA Finals, averaging 30.2 ppg, 14.0 rpg, and 7.2 apg with shooting splits of .583./.421/.838. 

Jamal Murray missed the whole 2021-22 season while recovering from a torn ACL, but he came back with a vengeance in 2022-23, averaging 20.0 ppg and a career-high 6.2 apg in the regular season before pushing those numbers to 26.1 ppg and 7.1 apg during Denver's dominant playoff run.

Aaron Gordon, Michael Porter Jr., and Kentavious Caldwell-Pope round out Denver's potent starting quintet. The bench does not look super strong right now, but rotations shrink during the playoffs, which means that if Denver makes it through the regular season with a healthy starting five then they will be tough to beat in the playoffs. One difference between Denver's relative lack of depth and Phoenix' lack of depth is that Denver's starters are younger and healthier overall than Phoenix' starters; the other difference is that--at least at this stage of their careers--Jokic is better than Kevin Durant, and thus better equipped to make things easier for his teammates.

2) Phoenix Suns: When Kevin Durant left Golden State for what he presumed to be greener pastures, this is probably not what he expected to find: a top-heavy, injury-prone roster that lacks depth. Durant's attempt to form a Brooklyn super-team with Kyrie Irving and James Harden failed, and his attempt to form a Phoenix super-team with Devin Booker and Bradley Beal will likely have a similar outcome. The Suns are capable of being a high-scoring team, but are they capable of staying healthy for 82 regular season games plus a playoff run of at least 20 games? That seems very unlikely. The Suns gave up a lot of depth, defense, and versatility to acquire Durant, and so far that has resulted in one playoff series win versus an injury-riddled Clippers team followed by a 4-2 second round loss to Denver. 

Jusuf Nurkic is, at best, equal to Ayton, but Nurkic is older than Ayton and has been injury-prone throughout his career. Grayson Allen and Nassir Little are solid rotation players, but if one of the stars gets hurt neither Allen nor Little can come close to filling that void.

I foresee Phoenix being healthy enough to win 50-plus games and capture the number two seed before gradually wearing down in the playoffs, losing in either the second round or the Western Conference Finals depending on matchups and injuries.

3) Sacramento Kings: Mike Brown earned his second NBA Coach of the Year award--and became the first winner by unanimous vote--after leading the Kings to a 48-34 record, third best in the Western Conference and the team's best winning percentage (.585) since 2004-05. Last season, the Kings reached the playoffs for the first time since the 2005-06 season, losing to the defending NBA champion Golden State Warriors in a hard-fought first round series.

Brown has been an excellent coach for a long time, but media members who belittled and criticized him for years do not acknowledge that they were wrong about him; instead, they speak about Brown's so-called "evolution" from being a subpar coach to being an excellent coach. Brown won his first Coach of the Year award in 2009 after leading the Cleveland Cavaliers to a league-best 66-16 record (which is still the franchise mark, better than any of the seasons during which LeBron James led the Cavaliers to the NBA Finals). He has also served as an assistant coach for championship winning teams in San Antonio (2003) and Golden State (2017, 2018, 2022). Brown is best known as a defensive-minded coach, but his 2023 Kings ranked first in the NBA in scoring and second in field goal percentage.

The Kings' best players are three-time All-Star Domantas Sabonis and 2023 All-Star De'Aaron Fox. Sabonis led the NBA in rebounding last season (12.3 rpg) while also averaging 19.1 ppg and a team-high 7.3 apg. He has averaged at least 18.5 ppg and at least 12.0 rpg in each of the past four seasons. Fox has averaged at least 21.1 ppg in each of the past four seasons, and last season he earned his first All-Star selection as he averaged 25.0 ppg (just .2 ppg off of his career-high) while posting career-high numbers in field goal percentage (.512) and free throw percentage (.780).

The Kings must improve defensively to win a championship, but they are a young and talented team with a great coach so there is good reason to believe that they will make progress at that end of the court.

4) L.A. Lakers: If you believed the media hype, when the Lakers traded Russell Westbrook for the "tremendous trio" of D'Angelo Russell, Jarred Vanderbilt, and Malik Beasley they pulled off the biggest NBA heist since Red Auerbach acquired Kevin McHale and Robert Parish. Reality set in for even the most delusional observers after Coach Darvin Ham was so impressed by those three players that in game four of the Western Conference Finals he removed Russell from the starting lineup (and played him just 15 minutes) while sitting both Vanderbilt and Beasley on the bench for the entire game.

After the Nuggets swept the Lakers, it became evident that Ham was not the only person in the organization who was not satisfied with the Lakers' roster, notwithstanding the editorializing by Dave "Vampire" McMenamin and other members of LeBron James' p.r. team who understood the assignment to scapegoat Russell Westbrook even at the cost of ignoring the obvious.

The Lakers' front office let Malik Beasley walk, and signed five free agents (Jaxson Hayes, Taurean Prince, Cam Reddish, Gabe Vincent, and Christian Wood) while parting ways with Mo Bamba, Troy Brown Jr., Wenyen Gabriel, Shaquille Harrison, Dennis Schroder, and Lonnie Walker IV. 

To the extent that Wood and Hayes can play effective minutes at center this will enable Anthony Davis to play his preferred power forward position. The Lakers are at their best when Davis plays center, but Davis does not like playing center, and the Lakers have proven that they will do everything possible to accommodate the wishes of LeBron James and the players he picks, with Davis being by far the most notable player acquired by General Manager/Coach/Player President James. Davis was supposed to be Robin to James' Batman until James retired and Davis assumed the Batman role, but Davis has only sporadically lived up to his potential: he was very effective--and dominant at times--during the Lakers' 2020 "bubble" championship, but after playing in 62 of 71 games during that season he played in 56 games or less in each of the next three seasons. Davis played in all 16 of the Lakers' 2023 playoff games, leading the league in postseason rebounding (14.1 rpg) and shot blocking (3.1 bpg) while scoring 22.6 ppg on .520 field goal shooting. Davis' paint dominance had much more to do with the Lakers' 2023 playoff run than the much-praised "tremendous trio" did.

James has not played in more than 67 regular season games since the 2017-18 season, but when he is focused and plays hard he is still one of the NBA's top five players, and that is remarkable for a 20 year veteran who will turn 39 early this season. James averaged 28.9 ppg, 8.3 rpg, and 6.8 apg in 55 regular season games, and he averaged 24.5 ppg, 9.9 rpg, and 6.5 apg in 16 playoff games.

If James and Davis are both healthy and motivated, then the Lakers could be very good, but the reality is that they will probably only be healthy and motivated for part of the season, and that is why I cannot rank the Lakers higher than fourth even though their current roster is better than the roster that they had at the end of last season. The Lakers will need favorable matchups plus James and Davis playing in every playoff game in order to have any hope of matching last season's run to the Western Conference Finals.

5) Golden State Warriors: The Warriors have abandoned the "two timelines" approach of surrounding their veteran championship winning players with a young group that was supposed to help a little now and form the team's foundation later. In the past year, the Warriors jettisoned 24 year old Jordan Poole and 22 year old James Wiseman before bringing in 38 year old Chris Paul.

Paul is often called the "Point God" and "the best leader in the NBA," but the reality is that his teams have blown 2-0 playoff series leads a record five times. No other player has participated in even four such collapses. How bad is Paul's record of 2-0 series lead collapses? NBA teams that enjoy a 2-0 series lead win the series more than 92% of the time. Considering that Paul's teams are 3-6 in seventh games, and that his teams reached the NBA Finals just once in 18 seasons, a strong case could be made that he is one of the worst playoff chokers among great players in NBA history. 

It is not surprising that Paul's career took this path, because undersized, injury-prone guards are unlikely to be the best player on a championship team, as I noted after Paul's Suns suffered a humiliating blowout loss in game seven to the Dallas Mavericks in the 2022 playoffs:

I've been saying this for well over a decade, but maybe people will pay attention now (I doubt it, but I'll keep trying anyway): Paul is an undersized player who consistently wears down and/or gets injured in the playoffs. He is a great player who has a lot of heart, but undersized players simply cannot be as valuable as players who are 6-6 and bigger who have comparable skills (let alone bigger players who also have superior skills). There is one player 6-3 or under in my pro basketball Pantheon: Jerry West, who would give the business to any other similarly-sized player in pro basketball history. Isiah Thomas did not quite reach Pantheon-level, but he led Detroit to back to back titles without having a teammate who made the NBA's 50th Anniversary Team, and he had a winning career record head to head against Bird, Magic, and Jordan. People who compare Paul favorably with Thomas have absolutely no idea how great Thomas was, and how durable he was until the very end of his career...

As for Paul, his teams gagged up leads in playoff series when he was young, they did it when he was in his prime, and they have done it the past two years. This pattern has nothing to do with age; this pattern has to do with size, and how size impacts both durability and matchups. Paul can be worn down physically because he is small, he can be abused by bigger players when he plays defense, and bigger players can smother him when he plays offense. 

Relying heavily on Paul is an act of desperation, not brilliant calculation or deft roster construction.

Stephen Curry remains the team's heart and soul. In 2022-23, he had another MVP caliber season, averaging 29.4 ppg, 6.3 apg, and 6.1 rpg with shooting splits of .493/.427/.915. The main downsides for Curry are age (he will be 36 when the 2024 playoffs begin) and durability (he played in just 56 regular season games last season, and he has not played at least 70 games in a season since 2017-18). Curry was magnificent during the 2022 NBA Finals as the Warriors won their fourth championship in an eight year span; it remains to be seen if that was a rekindling of the dynasty or the dynasty's last hurrah--but the latter seems to be more likely.

6) L.A. Clippers: The Clippers are a suspect team until proven otherwise, despite the annual hype about how great they will be. Kawhi Leonard and Paul George arrived as a package deal for the 2019-20 season, and since that time the Clippers have posted a 3-3 playoff series record, including one Western Conference Finals appearance (2021) and one season when they did not even qualify for the playoffs (2022).

Perhaps it would be unfair to call the NBA's amended Player Participation Policy "The Kawhi Leonard Rule," but there is no doubt that Leonard is the first player many people thought about when the NBA announced the harsher penalties for load management of star players. Leonard's season by season games played totals with the Clippers are 57, 52, 0, and 52. He missed the entire 2022 campaign with a torn ACL, but he has also been a healthy scratch for a large number of games. All of that regular season rest has not translated into consistent playoff availability, as Leonard has appeared in only 26 out of 37 playoff games as a Clipper, which is equivalent to playing 58 out of 82 regular season games.

Leonard is a fantastic player when he plays--he averaged 28.2 ppg, 9.3 rpg and 5.5 apg in 13 playoff games in 2020, 30.4/7.7/4.4 in 11 playoff games in 2021, and 34.5/6.5/6.0 in two playoff games in 2023--but he is just not available often enough to lead the Clippers to a championship.

Paul George is the self-proclaimed "Playoff P," but it is rarely a good sign when you give yourself a nickname, particularly when you have never won anything of consequence during a long career. His career playoff field goal percentage is just .437, and his teams have posted an 8-10 playoff series record with no NBA Finals appearances and an 0-3 mark in the Conference Finals.

Having Russell Westbrook for an entire season will help the Clippers, because Westbrook plays hard and rarely misses games; in the past three seasons he has played in 65 out of 72 games (during the shortened 2021 season), 78 out of 82 games, and 73 out of 82 games. He played in all 82 games in four different seasons, he played in at least 80 games in three other seasons, and he played in all 66 games in the lockout-shortened 2012 season, meaning that Westbrook has missed two games or less in eight of his 15 NBA seasons. 

Westbrook averaged 15.8 ppg, 7.6 apg, and 4.9 rpg in 21 regular season games with the Clippers after being unceremoniously dumped by the Lakers late last season, and he had shooting splits of .489/.356/.658 in those games. Westbrook averaged 23.6 ppg, 7.6 rpg, and 7.4 apg as the Clippers--without George for the entire series and without Leonard for three of the five games--lost 4-1 to Phoenix in the first round of the playoffs.

7) Memphis Grizzlies: Not long ago, the Memphis Grizzlies seemed to be a team on the rise, but Ja Morant's off court misconduct resulted in a suspension that will cost him at least the first 25 games of the 2023-24 season. An earlier eight game suspension was not sufficient to help guide Morant onto a more positive path, so it is not an exaggeration to suggest that Morant's NBA future is in jeopardy--and don't be fooled by the Grizzlies' positive record in a small sample size of games without Morant: he is the team's best player, he is a potential superstar, and the team is much worse off without him in the long run (assuming that he straightens out his life off of the court).

Last season, the Grizzlies finished second in the Western Conference with a 51-31 record before being upset in the first round by the L.A. Lakers. The Grizzlies were without the services of big men Steven Adams and Brandon Clarke during that series, so Anthony Davis (13.7 rpg) and LeBron James (11.2 rpg) had a field day in the paint. Dillon Brooks spent most of the series running his mouth and missing shots (his playoff shooting splits were .312/.238/.714), and the Grizzlies traded him to Houston last summer.

Perhaps the Grizzlies can tread water without Morant for 25 games and then make a run for a top four seed during the final 57 games, but during the latter part of last season and the first round playoff series it seemed as if this team has some serious maturity issues overall, so it is difficult to project the Grizzlies as a top four team in the Western Conference until Morant successfully returns to action and the team becomes more stable overall.

8) Dallas Mavericks: The Dallas Mavericks will rely heavily on Kyrie Irving, a plan which did not work out well for Boston or Brooklyn in previous seasons--or for Dallas down the stretch last season. Irving is undeniably talented, but--contrary to popular belief--he is not the best ballhandler of all-time, nor should he have been selected to the NBA's 75th Anniversary Team. He is an efficient scorer and a solid passer, but his lack of size hurts him not only defensively but also in terms of durability: in his 12 season NBA career, he has played more than 70 games in a season just three times, and in the past four seasons his games played totals have been 20, 54, 29, and 60. Irving began last season in Brooklyn, was suspended by the team for his unrepentant antisemitism, and was soon thereafter traded to Dallas, for whom he averaged 27.0 ppg and 6.0 apg in 20 regular season games--during which the Mavericks went 8-12, falling not only out of the playoff race but also out of contention for the Play-In Tournament.

All of the drama surrounding Irving should not obscure the fact that Luka Doncic is Dallas' best player. In 2022-23, Doncic authored yet another MVP caliber season, averaging a career-high 32.4 ppg (second in the league), 8.0 apg (sixth in the league), and 8.6 rpg. Doncic made the All-NBA First Team for the fourth consecutive season in his five year career--keep in mind that Stephen Curry has earned four All-NBA First Team selections in his 14 year career--and Doncic finished eighth in regular season MVP voting after ranking fifth, sixth, and fourth in the previous seasons; the Mavericks' late season collapse no doubt cost Doncic a few MVP votes.

During the summer, the Mavericks acquired Seth Curry, Dante Exum, Richaun Holmes, and Grant Williams to bolster the team's depth, defense, and three point shooting, but it is difficult to picture the Mavericks as currently constructed advancing past the first round of the playoffs.

The teams that finish seventh through 10th in the regular season standings will participate in the Play-In Tournament. The above eight teams are the teams that I predict will qualify for the playoffs, regardless of what the final regular season standings are.

The remaining Western Conference teams lack sufficient talent, experience, or focus to make the playoffs (some are lacking in two or even all three areas).

The Oklahoma City Thunder are a popular sleeper pick to make noise in the Western Conference, but all of that young talent that the Thunder assembled by tanking has yet to produce a single winning season, let alone a playoff appearance. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is an elite player, but the Thunder need good health, improved defense, and quick maturation (mental and physical) by their young players to make the leap that so many are expecting. This looks like a team on the rise, and perhaps they will make the playoffs via the Play-In Tournament, but I don't expect the Thunder to finish in the top six, and I think that their inexperience will be a negative factor if they qualify for the Play-In Tournament.

The Minnesota Timberwolves are mediocre offensively (ranking 13th in the NBA in scoring last season) and defensively (ranking 18th in the NBA in points allowed last season), and they are a below average rebounding team (ranking 23rd in the NBA last season) despite having good size and several good athletes. Also, as TNT's Charles Barkley often points out, this team makes far too many bonehead plays. Anthony Edwards looks like a rising star, but this does not look like a rising team.

The New Orleans Pelicans have to prove that they can stay healthy enough to be relevant in the playoff race. Zion Williamson and Brandon Ingram could headline the NBA's "All-Street Clothes Team" if the league ever decides to create that award. For four seasons, we have heard about how good the Pelicans could be if Williamson were healthy--and during that time he has played in just 114 of a possible 308 regular season games. As the great football sage Don Meredith once said, "If ifs and buts were candy and nuts, we'd all have a Merry Christmas." It would be great if Williamson and Ingram stayed healthy, but don't bet on that happening.

The Utah Jazz went 37-45 last season, and they missed the playoffs for the first time since 2016. Lauri Markkanen had a breakout season, averaging a career-high 25.6 ppg en route to earning his first All-Star selection plus the Most Improved Player award, but there is not enough talent around Markkanen to lift the Jazz into the playoffs. They figure to hover around or maybe even slightly above .500, and they will be one of several teams in the mix for the Play-In Tournament.

Victor Wembanyama is the big story for the San Antonio Spurs, and one of the NBA's biggest stories this season. It is understandable why he is expected to become a great player, but few number one overall draft picks lead their teams to much playoff success in year one, and even some of the greatest players of all-time needed some seasoning before they became dominant. It would be surprising if the Spurs jump from 22-60--tied with Houston for the worst record in the Western Conference--to 40-plus wins and a playoff berth.

The Portland Trail Blazers have missed the playoffs each of the past two seasons, and have not advanced past the first round since their fluky 2019 run to the Western Conference Finals. They shipped out the disgruntled Damian Lillard in exchange for Deandre Ayton, Jrue Holiday, Toumani Camara, and several draft picks, and then they flipped Holiday to the Boston Celtics for Malcolm Brogdon, Robert Williams III, and two first round draft picks. The overall haul from those two transactions is about as much as they could reasonably be expected to get for an aging, undersized, and highly paid guard; it is not a stretch to say that the 2023-24 Portland roster is better overall than the 2022-23 roster led by Lillard, but that is not quite enough to put Portland back in the playoff picture. The Trail Blazers do not have enough size, depth, or defense to make the playoffs, but it would not be surprising if the new look Trail Blazers win more games than the Lillard-led Trail Blazers won (33) last season.

New Houston Coach Ime Udoka proved during his brief tenure in Boston that he can build a championship-caliber defense, but even after adding Fred VanVleet and Dillon Brooks this offseason the Rockets are not close to having championship caliber personnel. A well-known basketball adage is that you cannot make chicken salad out of chicken (you know what). The Rockets will be better this season, but they still will not be good enough to qualify for the playoffs.

**********

Note:

I correctly picked six of the eight 2023 Western Conference playoff teams. Here are my statistics for previous seasons:

2022: 5/8
2021: 6/8
2020: 6/8
2019: 7/8
2018: 6/8
2017: 7/8
2016: 6/8
2015: 7/8
2014: 6/8
2013: 6/8
2012: 7/8
2011: 5/8
2010: 7/8
2009: 7/8
2008: 7/8
2007: 6/8
2006: 6/8

2006-2023 Total: 113/144 (.785)

Labels: Dallas Mavericks, Denver Nuggets, Golden State Warriors, L.A. Clippers, L.A. Lakers, Memphis Grizzlies, Phoenix Suns, Sacramento Kings

posted by David Friedman @ 10:53 PM

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