20 Second Timeout

2026-27 Western Conference Preview

The Oklahoma City Thunder followed up their historic 68-14 regular season and 2025 championship run by starting the 2025-26 season with a 24-1 record to match the 2015-16 Golden State Warriors for the best 25 game start in NBA history. Even though injuries limited Jalen Williams to just 33 regular season games, the Thunder still posted the league's best record (64-18) and looked poised to become the first team to win a second consecutive NBA title since the 2018 Warriors. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (31.1 ppg, 6.6 apg, 4.3 rpg) won his second consecutive regular season MVP and made the All-NBA First Team for the fourth straight year. The Thunder swept the Phoenix Suns and L.A. Lakers in the first two rounds before falling to the San Antonio Spurs in seven games in the Western Conference Finals. By game seven, the Thunder were without the services of not only Williams but also Ajay Mitchell, Williams' backup who averaged 22.3 ppg versus the Lakers in the second round.

It takes nothing away from the Spurs' accomplishment to note that the Thunder were not at full strength in the Western Conference Finals--and it should also be mentioned that the Spurs went 4-1 versus the Thunder during the regular season. The Spurs finished with the NBA's second best regular season record (62-20), reached the playoffs for the first time since 2019, and advanced to the NBA Finals for the first time since they won the 2014 NBA title. Victor Wembanyama led the way for the Spurs, posting team-highs in scoring (career-high 25.0 ppg), rebounding (11.5 rpg) and blocked shots (league-best 3.1 bpg). He had similarly outstanding numbers during the playoffs: 23.8 ppg, 10.9 rpg, league-best 3.5 bpg. Wembanyama won the Defensive Player of the Year Award for the first time while also making the All-NBA First Team for the first time and finishing third in regular season MVP voting. He has a young, talented supporting cast that includes Stephon Castle (16.7 ppg, team-high 7.4 apg), De'Aaron Fox (18.6 ppg, 6.2 apg), 2026 Sixth Man of the Year Keldon Johnson (13.2 ppg), and Dylan Harper (11.8 ppg). 

The Denver Nuggets have not advanced past the second round since winning the 2023 NBA title. That championship team led the league in field goal percentage, ranked eighth in points allowed, and finished 12th in scoring; last season's Nuggets ranked first in scoring and second in field goal percentage but just 21st in points allowed. With Nikola Jokic running the show from the high post or the low post, the Nuggets consistently have an elite offense, but their poor defense and their lack of depth have prevented them from making deep playoff runs the past three seasons. This offseason, the Nuggets added DeMar DeRozan (18.4 ppg in 77 games with the Sacramento Kings last season) and Marvin Bagley III (10.5 ppg, 6.1 rpg in 60 games for Dallas and Washington last season), but lost Peyton Watson (14.6 ppg, 4.9 rpg, .411 3FG%), Tim Hardaway Jr. (13.5 ppg, .407 3FG%), Jonas Valanciunas (8.7 ppg, 5.1 rpg), and Bruce Brown (7.9 ppg, .385 3FG%).

Fred VanVleet missed the entire 2025-26 season with a torn right ACL, but his healthy return this season should provide a significant boost for a Houston team that missed his playmaking and leadership; last season, the Rockets ranked just 21st in the league in assists and 24th in turnovers. Kevin Durant is 38 years old but does not seem to have lost a step, at least on offense: last season, he averaged 26.0 ppg with .520/.413/.874 shooting splits, numbers that are in line with his career averages (27.1 ppg, .503/.392/.882). It is easy to forget that the Rockets went most of the regular season and the entire playoffs without Steven Adams, who is a force in the paint and on the boards; he averaged 5.8 ppg on .504 field goal shooting and 8.6 rpg in 32 games before suffering a season-ending ankle injury. 

The Minnesota Timberwolves made significant changes to their rotation, parting ways with Julius Randle and Naz Reid while obtaining LaMelo Ball and Jonathan Kuminga. The Timberwolves have been trending downward since reaching the 2024 Western Conference Finals. The 2023-24 Timberwolves had a huge frontcourt with Rudy Gobert and Karl-Anthony Towns starting and Naz Reid winning the Sixth Man of the Year award as the first big man off of the bench. That squad posted the second best regular season record (56-26) in franchise history before eliminating the defending champion Denver Nuggets 4-3 in the second round. After trading Towns for Julius Randle, the Timberwolves slipped to 49-33 in 2024-25 but made it back to the Western Conference Finals after routing the L.A. Lakers and Golden State Warriors. Last season, the Timberwolves went 49-33 again but lost in the second round. Adding Ball is supposed to provide playmaking and take pressure off of Anthony Edwards, but the Timberwolves were better off when they had a bigger, more physical team; the 2023-24 Timberwolves led the league in defensive field goal percentage and points allowed, and there is no chance that this team as currently constructed will come close to the top ranking in either of those important categories. 

This preview has the same format as my Eastern Conference Preview; the following eight teams are ranked based on their likelihood of making it to the NBA Finals:

1) San Antonio Spurs: The Spurs massively exceeded expectations, vaulting from missing the playoffs with a 34-48 record to reaching the NBA Finals after posting a 62-20 record. The Spurs had not won 60 games since 2016-17 and had not made the playoffs since 2019. The Spurs are just the fourth team to reach the NBA Finals after missing the playoffs for at least the six previous seasons, joining the 1977 Portland Trail Blazers (missed the playoffs for six straight seasons), the 2020 L.A. Lakers (six), and the 2021 Phoenix Suns (10).

The Spurs improved from 17th in the league in field goal percentage to sixth while jumping from 19th in rebounding to second, leaping from 23rd in points allowed to eighth, and soaring from 24th in defensive field goal percentage to fourth. Victor Wembanyama played a major role in those across the board improvements because he had a significant impact in the paint at both ends of the court: he played in 64 games after playing in just 46 games in 2024-25, he shot a career-high .512 from the field after shooting .476 in 2024-25, he slashed his 3FGA/game from 8.8 to 5.5, and he led the league in blocked shots for the third time in his three year career. 

Wembanyama is the lead singer, but he is not a one man band: De'Aaron Fox earned his second All-Star selection, while Stephon Castle, Devin Vassell, Keldon Johnson, Dylan Harper, and Julian Champagnie each scored in double figures. During the playoffs, Harper assumed a larger role, while Fox regressed after suffering a right high ankle sprain. It will be interesting to see how coach Mitch Johnson manages the minutes and the starting slots for his backcourt rotation.

Free agent signee Tobias Harris averaged 13.3 ppg and 5.1 rpg for the Pistons in the regular season last year before boosting those numbers to 18.1 ppg and 7.2 rpg during the playoffs. He injured his left calf during the preseason and is not expected to be available for the start of the regular season, but assuming that he makes a fully healthy return to action he will strengthen the Spurs' frontcourt rotation 

The Spurs have the necessary personnel to win an NBA title, but reaching the NBA Finals in 2026 does not guarantee reaching the NBA Finals--let alone winning a championship--in 2027 or beyond. It remains to be seen if 2026 was the start of a dynastic run, or merely a young team peaking early. 

2) Oklahoma City Thunder: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander has averaged at least 30 ppg for four straight seasons, a feat matched only by Pantheon members Michael Jordan (1987-93), Oscar Robertson (1964-67), and Wilt Chamberlain (1960-66). He is also a good defensive player, though perhaps not quite as active and aggressive at that end of the court now as he was when he ranked in the top five in the league in steals for three straight seasons (2023-25).

The Thunder might have won a repeat NBA title if they had been blessed with better health. Jalen Williams--who earned his first All-NBA, All-Star, and All-Defensive selections during the Thunder's 2025 championship campaign--played in just 33 games last season and only played in five of the Thunder's 15 playoff games. Ajay Mitchell filled in admirably before getting injured in the Western Conference Finals. 

Depth was a strength for the Thunder during the 2024-25 campaign, but no team is going to win a championship replacing an All-NBA caliber player with a third stringer. This season, the Thunder's depth will be tested because the team lost several players due to the dreaded second apron, trading away Lu Dort, Isaiah Joe, and Aaron Wiggins to slash payroll. The Thunder still have a strong eight to nine player rotation, but they are not quite as deep as they were and thus they will be less able to withstand an injury to a key player like Jalen Williams.

It is easy to forget how dominant the Thunder were for large stretches of last season even with Williams out of the lineup or playing at less than 100%. It would not be surprising at all if the Thunder win the 2027 NBA title. 

3) Denver Nuggets: The Nuggets have won at least 50 games in each of the past four seasons, and that trend figures to continue as long as Nikola Jokic remains in peak form. Jokic won the regular season MVP in 2021, 2022, and 2024, and he finished second in MVP voting in 2023, 2025, and 2026. As I noted in my 2025-26 NBA Playoff Predictions, Jokic is a statistical marvel:

Jokic played in 65 games this season, which is his lowest number since he played in 55 games and 59 games in his first two seasons. Last season, Jokic became the only player other than Wilt Chamberlain to rank in the top three in the NBA in scoring, rebounding, and assists in the same season while also becoming the first center and third player to average a triple double in a season--and this season Jokic was even better, leading the league in rebounding (12.9 rpg) and assists (career-high 10.7 apg) while ranking eighth in scoring (27.7 ppg) with shooting splits of .569/.380/.830. He is not a lockdown individual defender, but he led the league in defensive rebounding (9.9 defensive rebounds per game) while also averaging 1.4 spg and .8 bpg...Jokic has averaged at least 24.5 ppg, at least 10.8 rpg and at least 7.9 apg for six straight seasons while never shooting worse than .566 from the field; no player in pro basketball history has matched each of those thresholds for a six season span. Moreover, the team numbers show that during that period the Nuggets performed at an elite level when Jokic is on the court and resembled a Draft Lottery team when he is off of the court (and their 11-6 record this season without him is loaded with wins against lower echelon teams); in other words, he is not just stuffing the stat sheet individually but he is productive in ways that help his team win. 

Last season, Jokic became the first player in pro basketball history to lead the league in rpg and apg in the same season; the only other player who led the league in both categories in the same season is Wilt Chamberlain, who led the NBA in rebounds and assists in 1967-68 when league leaders were determined by totals, not averages. Jokic ranks second in pro basketball history with 198 career triple doubles, trailing only Russell Westbrook (209). Oscar Robertson was the first player who averaged a triple double for an entire season (1961-62), and he also averaged an aggregate triple double during his first five NBA seasons. Russell Westbrook averaged a triple double in four seasons (2017-19, 2021) while averaging an aggregate triple double for the five seasons spanning 2017-21. Jokic has averaged a triple double in each of the past two seasons.

Jamal Murray has been an excellent second option for the Nuggets during most of Jokic's career, with the only problem being Murray's injury issues. Murray missed the entire 2021-22 season with a torn left ACL, and he has played 67 games or less in five of his eight other seasons. Last season, Murray played in 75 games--his highest total since he played in 75 games in 2018-19--and he posted career-high numbers in scoring (25.4 ppg), assists (7.1 apg), and rebounding (4.4 rpg) while earning his first All-NBA selection (Third Team) and his first All-Star selection. 

Third option Aaron Gordon has also battled injuries, playing in just 36 games last season and 51 games in 2024-25. When healthy, Gordon is a double figure scorer who gets most of his points near the hoop but can step out to make three pointers. He is a solid rebounder and defensive player whose physicality eases the burden on Jokic.

The ceiling for Denver is to win a championship, but the Nuggets do not seem deep enough or stout enough defensively to do that unless everything breaks right. The most realistic outcome is a top three regular season finish and a hard-fought second round loss to San Antonio or Oklahoma City.

4) Houston Rockets: Kevin Durant continues to perform at an All-NBA level, and under coach Ime Udoka the Rockets emerged as the NBA's best rebounding team while also ranking fourth in points allowed and sixth in defensive field goal percentage. After the L.A. Lakers defeated the Rockets in the first round, much was made of the Lakers overcoming injuries, but during that series the Rockets were not only without the services of Durant for five of the six games but they were also missing starting point guard Fred VanVleet and key big man Steven Adams.

The healthy return of VanVleet should help the Rockets take care of the ball better, particularly in the late game situations that proved troublesome last season. The Rockets will also benefit from getting a full season out of Adams, who is said to be fully recovered from the serious ankle injury he suffered in January 2026.

Last season, Alperun Sengun averaged 20.4 ppg, a team-high 8.9 rpg, and a team-high 6.2 apg as he earned his second consecutive All-Star selection. Amen Thompson led the Rockets in minutes (37.4 mpg) while ranking second in rebounding (7.8 rpg), second in assists (5.3 apg), and third in scoring (18.3 ppg). He is an elite, multi-position defender.

The Rockets are not quite as deep as the Spurs or Thunder, nor do they have an otherworldly player in his prime like the Nuggets, but if they are fully healthy they will be a tough out in a seven game series. 

5) Minnesota Timberwolves: After setting a career-high with 10.3 3FGA/game in 2024-25, Anthony Edwards dialed back his long range bombing to 8.4 3FGA/game in 2025-26 and he scored a career-high 28.8 ppg (third in the league) with .489/.399/.796 shooting splits. He set career highs in FG% and 3FG%, and even though his FT% dropped from his career-high .837 in 2024-25 it was just a tick below his career average. Edwards is already a six year veteran, but he is just 25 years old and he is still improving. The Timberwolves hope that newly acquired point guard LaMelo Ball will create easier shot opportunities for everyone, including his backcourt mate Edwards.

The addition of Ball is the latest move signaling that the Timberwolves have shifted from relying on size, physicality, and defense to depending on being able to outrun and outgun their opponents. Ball and Edwards will push the ball and look for easy scoring opportunities in transition, but--as Pat Riley noted decades ago when he coached the "Showtime" Lakers--"No rebounds, no rings": if the Timberwolves do not get enough defensive stops and defensive rebounds then their running game will never get going.

Championship teams that are remembered by casual fans as flashy, high scoring ensembles also had a stern defensive backbone and enough size and tenacity to battle in the paint; the 1980's Lakers and the four-time champion Golden State Warriors of recent vintage are two prime examples of this, and unless/until the Timberwolves find the right balance they will not overtake the Western Conference's top teams.

6) L.A. Lakers: LeBron James' longest continuous run with one team--eight seasons--ended when he left the L.A. Lakers to sign with the Philadelphia 76ers this summer. The James era in L.A. produced one championship (the 2020 "bubble title"), a Western Conference Finals appearances in 2023, one second round loss, three first round losses, and two seasons without playoff appearances; in short, James' Lakers failed to advance past the second round in six out of eight seasons.

James has not made the All-NBA First Team since 2020, when he was 35 years old. After the Lakers acquired Luka Doncic in the middle of the 2024-25 season, James shifted to a secondary role for the first time in his career. Doncic made the All-NBA First Team last season after winning his second scoring title (33.5 ppg), and he finished in the top five in MVP voting (fourth) for the fourth time in his eight season career. Doncic missed the 2026 playoffs because of a severe left hamstring strain, and James led the Lakers to a 4-2 first round win over Houston before Oklahoma City swept the Lakers in the second round, with three of the four games being decided by at least 18 points.

During the offseason, the Lakers acquired Walker Kessler to bolster their paint presence while parting ways with Deandre Ayton, Rui Hachimura, Marcus Smart, Luke Kennard, and Jaxson Hayes. The Lakers are the first team in NBA history to get rid of all five of the players who ranked in the top five on the team in total playoff minutes played in the previous campaign (Hachimura, James, Smart, Kennard, Ayton).

James' former podcast partner J.J. Redick has all of the answers during postgame press conferences, so it will be interesting to see how successful he is coaching this team without James around to cover up for his coaching gaffes. Any team with Doncic and a decent supporting cast should at least make the playoffs. The question is how far can the Lakers advance with Redick calling the shots and without James around--and the likely answer is a first round exit.

7) Portland Trail Blazers: Deni Avdija steadily improved during his first three seasons in Washington, became a double figure scorer in his fourth season, and then blossomed in the past two years in Portland. After averaging a career-high 16.9 ppg in 2024-25, Avdija poured in a team-high 24.2 ppg last season while also averaging 6.9 rpg and 6.7 apg to narrowly miss joining the 25-5-5 Club. He earned his first All-Star selection, and drew praise for his aggressive forays to the hoop that enabled him to rank second in the league with 9.2 FTA/game.

Toumani Camara led the team in total minutes (2731) and games played (82). He is an outstanding defensive player who also chipped in 13.4 ppg and 5.1 rpg. Jrue Holiday averaged 16.3 ppg--his highest scoring season since 2022-23--but he only played in 53 games. Donovan Clingan averaged 12.1 ppg, a team-high 11.6 rpg, and a league-leading 4.5 offensive rebounds per game. 

It will be interesting to see how the players who led the Trail Blazers to their first playoff appearance since 2021 will be impacted by the addition of two small, ball-dominant guards to the mix: Damian Lillard and Ja Morant are both high-usage players who are minus defenders.

The Trail Blazers will welcome back Lillard, the franchise's all-time leading scorer, after a three year absence. Portland signed Lillard last summer after he spent two seasons in Milwaukee, but he missed all of last season with a ruptured left Achilles that he suffered while playing for the Bucks during the first round of the 2025 playoffs. Portland traded Jeremi Grant and Kris Murray for Morant, a two-time All-Star who recently has not been able to stay healthy or keep out of trouble.  

The Trail Blazers are at their best when the ball is in Avdija's hands; every possession that begins or ends with Lillard or Morant takes the ball away from the team's most dangerous player. How good the Trail Blazers will be depends on the extent to which Lillard and Morant avoid hogging the ball to go one on one.

8) Dallas Mavericks: Cooper Flagg struggled early in his rookie season while coach Jason Kidd played him at point guard, but after Kidd switched him back to his natural small forward position Flagg set several records, including most points by a teenager in a single game (51), first teenager to score at least 40 points in an NBA game, and first teenager to score at least 30 points in consecutive games. Flagg was also the first rookie to score at least 45 points in consecutive games since 1962. He averaged 21.0 ppg, 6.7 rpg, and 4.5 apg in 70 games, leading the team in scoring while ranking second in assists. In his final six games, Flagg scored 29.2 ppg in just 30.0 mpg with shooting splits of .474/.429/.949. Unlike many high octane offensive players, Flagg is also a good defensive player. Great players often make a leap in their second year, and if Flagg does that then the Mavericks should be good enough to at least qualify for the playoffs via the Play-In Tournament.

The Mavericks had a busy offseason. They hired Masai Ujiri--the architect of Toronto's 2019 championship team--as team president, and then Ujiri hired Dusty May to replace Kidd as the coach. May led Michigan to the 2026 NCAA title, but the jump from coaching the collegiate game to coaching in the professional ranks is a huge one. Ujiri made several personnel moves, including adding veteran big man Santi Aldama, versatile forward Zaccharie Risacher (the number one overall pick in the 2024 NBA Draft), and Michigan rookie Morez Johnson Jr. while subtracting Klay Thompson, Ryan Nembhard, and Marvin Bagley III.

Perhaps the most significant "addition" is Kyrie Irving, who missed the entire season with a left ACL tear. If the 34 year old Irving still has some bounce in his step then that will take pressure off of Flagg and create matchup problems for opposing defenses. Irving averaged 24.7 ppg, 4.8 rpg, and 4.6 apg in 50 games with the Mavericks in 2024-25 before injuring his knee.

The Mavericks are not a championship contender, but with Irving and Flagg running the offense and Daniel Gafford anchoring the defense they can pose problems even to the elite teams.

The teams that finish seventh through 10th in the regular season standings will participate in the Play-In Tournament. The above eight teams are the teams that I predict will qualify for the playoffs, regardless of what the final regular season standings are. 

The Phoenix Suns went 45-37 last season and qualified for the playoffs despite sending Kevin Durant to the Houston Rockets in a seven team deal. The Suns will make the Play-In Tournament to have a shot at earning a playoff berth, but I expect Dallas and Portland to be just a little better than the Suns by the end of the season.

The Golden State Warriors stood pat with an aging roster that posted a 37-45 record last season. They have not advanced past the second round of the playoffs since overcoming a 2-1 deficit to beat the Boston Celtics in the 2022 NBA Finals. Stephen Curry averaged 26.6 ppg last season--his highest scoring average since he scored 29.4 ppg in the 2022-23 season--but he played in just 43 games and he has played in at least 70 games twice in the past nine seasons. Jimmy Butler (20.0 ppg) played 38 games before suffering a season-ending right ACL tear, and he is unlikely to return to action until at least January 2027.

Last season, the Utah Jazz went 4-23 down the stretch--including 1-11 in their final 12 games--to tank their way to the bottom of the Western Conference standings. Now that the NBA has changed rules to remove incentives for tanking, such a collapse is less likely. The Jazz will not be a playoff team, but with second overall pick Darryn Peterson joining Lauri Markkanen (26.7 ppg in 42 games last season), Keyonte George (23.6 ppg in 54 games), and second year player Ace Bailey (13.8 ppg in 72 games) the Jazz have a solid young group that should win 35-40 games next season.

The L.A. Clippers' prospects for the next several years are limited due to the five first round draft picks that the NBA took away as part of the penalty for the salary cap circumvention pertaining to the signing of Kawhi Leonard. The Clippers sent Leonard to the Toronto Raptors in exchange for Brandon Ingram and Gradey Dick, which represented a talent downgrade for the Clippers even before it was determined that Ingram has a partially torn right Achilles that will force him to miss the start of the season. Ty Lue is an excellent coach, but even he will not be able to drag this team to the playoffs. The Clippers lack size--they ranked 29th in the league in rebounding last season--and it will be very difficult to replace Leonard's scoring, playmaking, and defensive versatility.

After posting the third worst record (25-57) in the Western Conference, the Memphis Grizzlies traded Ja Morant to the Portland Trail Blazers in exchange for Jerami Grant and Kris Murray. They also acquired Isaiah Stewart and Quentin Post to bolster their frontcourt, and they shipped Santi Aldama to the Dallas Mavericks in a multi-team deal that yielded A.J. Johnson plus three draft picks. The Grizzlies selected Cameron Boozer with the third overall pick, and they hope that he will be the cornerstone of their rebuilding project. The net result of those moves is that the Grizzlies have a bigger, tougher, and more defensive-minded team. They will not make the playoffs, but they are on the right track after advancing past the first round once since 2015 and missing the playoffs in two of the past three seasons. 

Since the New Orleans Pelicans drafted Zion Williamson seven years ago, he has played at least 70 games in a season once and he has yet to play in a playoff game (the Pelicans lost in the first round without him in 2022 and 2024). It is not going out on a limb to predict that Williamson will play less than 70 games this season and the Pelicans will miss the playoffs for the third season in a row.

The Sacramento Kings should be renamed the Paupers. Since the Kings fired 2023 NBA Coach of the Year Mike Brown on December 27, 2024, they have posted a 49-84 record; meanwhile, Brown landed in New York, where he led the Knicks to their first NBA title since 1973. The Kings waived DeMar DeRozan, who averaged 18.4 ppg (second on the team) last season, and they did not re-sign Russell Westbrook, who led the team with 6.7 apg. Perhaps the Kings missed the memo that tanking no longer results in receiving a top draft pick (not that the Kings would know what to do with a top draft pick if they got one). 

**********

Note:

I correctly picked six of the eight 2026 Western Conference playoff teams. Here are my statistics for previous seasons:

2025: 5/8
2024: 5/8
2023: 6/8
2022: 5/8
2021: 6/8
2020: 6/8
2019: 7/8
2018: 6/8
2017: 7/8
2016: 6/8
2015: 7/8
2014: 6/8
2013: 6/8
2012: 7/8
2011: 5/8
2010: 7/8
2009: 7/8
2008: 7/8
2007: 6/8
2006: 6/8

2006-2026 Total: 129/168 (.768)

Labels: Dallas Mavericks, Denver Nuggets, Houston Rockets, L.A. Lakers, Minnesota Timberwolves, Oklahoma City Thunder, Portland Trail Blazers, San Antonio Spurs

posted by David Friedman @ 11:19 PM

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Lindy's Pro Basketball 2026-27 is on Sale Now

For several decades, the appearance of Lindy's Pro Basketball on store shelves has meant that the NBA season is almost here. The 2026-27 edition of Lindy's Pro Basketball has 30 team previews, plus nine feature stories: "Scopin' the NBA" (Roland Lazenby recaps major off-season stories*), "The New Big Men" (Michael Bradley discusses the evolution of how big men play in the NBA), "How to Win in the NBA" (Henry Abbott explains "basketball analytics"), "The Greatest Knick Ever?" (Lazenby makes the case for Earl "The Pearl" Monroe), "Keeping the Faith" (Graham Dunn profiles Tyler Tanner), "NBA Report Card" (Lazenby grades each team's off-season moves), "A Look Ahead" (Carl Berman previews the 2027 NBA Draft), "NBA Fantasy Guide (Mike Ashley gives tips to fantasy basketball participants), and "A Look Back" (Lazenby examines Red Auerbach's legacy).

I wrote five team previews and sidebar articles this year: Dallas Mavericks, Golden State Warriors, New Orleans Pelicans, Oklahoma City Thunder, and San Antonio Spurs. My sidebar articles discuss, respectively, Dusty May's big jump from college to the pros, Draymond Green's legacy, Joe Dumars' return to his Louisiana roots, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander's free throw drawing prowess, and Dylan Harper's championship pedigree.

This is the 18th year that I have contributed to Lindy's Pro Basketball dating back to 2005 (with interruptions for the 2011 lockout, my law school attendance in 2014-15, and 2020 because Lindy's Pro Basketball was not published in the wake of COVID-19). As always, I thank Roland Lazenby for the opportunity to contribute to Lindy's Pro Basketball, and I am proud to be associated with the finished product.

If you do not see the magazine in any stores in your area, you can order a copy online. 

*--I am listed on the Contents page as a co-author of Scopin' the NBA, but I did not participate in writing the article this season, so Lazenby deserves full credit. 

Selected Previous Articles About Lindy's Pro Basketball:

Lindy's Pro Basketball 2025-26 is on Sale Now

Lindy's Pro Basketball 2024-25 is on Sale Now  

Lindy's Pro Basketball 2023-24 is on Sale Now  

Lindy's Pro Basketball 2022-23 is on Sale Now 

Lindy's Pro Basketball 2021-2022 is in Stores Now 

"Forever Mamba" Pays Tribute to Kobe Bryant 

Look for Lindy's Pro Basketball 2019-20 in Stores Now 

Lindy's Pro Basketball 2018-19 Is Available Now 

Lindy's Pro Basketball 2017-18 is on Sale Now

Labels: Dallas Mavericks, Golden State Warriors, Lindy's Pro Basketball, New Orleans Pelicans, Oklahoma City Thunder, Roland Lazenby, San Antonio Spurs

posted by David Friedman @ 10:21 PM

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Don Nelson Lived a Full Basketball Life

Last Sunday, Don Nelson--who won five NBA titles as a player for the Boston Celtics before becoming one of the greatest coaches in NBA history--passed away at the age of 86. Nelson was a basketball innovator. He may not have originated the "point forward" concept, but during his tenure in Milwaukee he popularized it with players such as Marques Johnson and Paul Pressey. Pressey averaged 7.8 apg in 1985-86, setting a record for small forwards that stood until LeBron James averaged 8.6 apg in 2009-10. Nelson's teams often played "small ball," albeit out of necessity as much as by choice. Nelson tinkered with having his center shoot three pointers decades before teams widely adopted the practice of having big men operate behind the three point arc on offense. Nelson held the NBA record for regular season coaching wins from 2010-2022, surpassing Lenny Wilkens before being overtaken by Gregg Popovich, who served under him as an assistant coach during Nelson's first tenure in Golden State. Nelson earned the NBA Coach of the Year award in 1983, 1985, and 1992. Popovich and Pat Riley are the only other three-time winners of that award, though it should be noted that Larry Brown won the ABA Coach of the Year award three times before also winning the NBA Coach of the Year award once. In addition to his significant NBA coaching success, Nelson coached "Dream Team II" to the gold medal in the 1994 FIBA World Championship two years after the original Dream Team won the Olympic gold medal.

Nelson averaged 10.3 ppg and 4.9 rpg in his 14 season NBA playing career before leaving an indelible mark as a creative and shrewd coach. He spent his final 12 seasons for the Celtics after playing for the Chicago Zephyrs (which became the team now known as the Washington Wizards) as a rookie before doing a two year stint with the L.A. Lakers. Nelson never averaged 20 ppg or 10 rpg in a season, but he had some notable moments and achievements as a player, including hitting a shot just before the shot clock buzzer to give the Celtics a 105-102 lead over the Lakers with a little over a minute to go in game seven of the 1969 NBA Finals. Nelson's shot hit the back of the rim and bounced high in the air before nestling into the net, providing a cushion before the Celtics won 108-106 at L.A. to claim the 11th and final championship of the Bill Russell era. Nelson also ranked fourth in playoff scoring (11.4 ppg) for the 1974 NBA champion Celtics, and he led the NBA in field goal percentage (.539) in his second to last season (1974-75).

After Nelson retired in 1976, he started the next season with the Milwaukee Bucks as an assistant to Larry Costello before Costello resigned with a 3-15 record. Nelson became the head coach, and the Bucks went 27-37 the rest of the way. The Bucks missed the playoffs that season, advanced to the second round the next season, and then missed the playoffs again in 1979 before reaching the playoffs for eight straight years with Nelson at the helm. That run included seven straight Central Division titles (1980-86) and three Eastern Conference Finals appearances (1983-84, 1986). Nelson's Bucks never made it to the NBA Finals because either Larry Bird's Boston Celtics or Julius Erving's Philadelphia 76ers blocked their path each time they went on a deep playoff run. Nelson resigned after the 1986-87 season.

Nelson did some national color commentary work during the 1987-88 season before the Golden State Warriors hired him prior to the 1988-89 season. Nelson's seven years with the Warriors are most remembered for the spectacular play of the "Run TMC" trio, even though Tim Hardaway, Mitch Richmond, and Chris Mullin were only teammates for a little over two years. After Nelson's passing, Hardaway reflected on his impact: "Nellie was ahead of his time and there was nobody else like him. He had an incredible impact on my career and on the game of basketball. I'm going to miss him, and my thoughts and prayers are with Joy, Donnie and the entire Nelson family."

The Warriors led the NBA in scoring (116.3 ppg) in 1989-90, the Hall of Fame trio's first season together, but the Warriors ranked second to last in the league in points allowed (119.8 ppg) and finished with a 37-45 record. The Warriors went 44-38 in 1990-91, the team's best record since 1981-82. Prior to the 1991-92 season, the Warriors traded Richmond for the rights to Billy Owens. Owens finished third in Rookie of the Year voting as the Warriors went 55-27, their best record since the defending NBA champion Warriors went 59-23 in 1975-76. Injuries took a major toll in 1992-93 as the Warriors plummeted to 34-48, but they bounced back to 50-32 in 1993-94. Nelson clashed with Chris Webber, the team's second leading scorer and the NBA's 1994 Rookie of the Year, so Nelson resigned midway through the 1994-95 season. The Warriors did not make the playoffs again until 2007, the first season of Nelson's second stint as Golden State's coach.

Nelson coached the New York Knicks for less than a full season, guiding the team to a 34-25 record before being fired during the 1995-96 season. After one season away from coaching, Nelson served as the general manager and coach of the Dallas Mavericks starting in 1997. Nelson orchestrated the trades that resulted in the Mavericks acquiring future Hall of Famers Dirk Nowitzki and Steve Nash. Nowitzki posted a heartfelt tribute to his former coach and mentor:

Nellie… You didn't just draft me. You believed in me. You saw things in my game before I ever realized I could do them. I've said it a million times and I will always say it: I don't think my career could have turned out how it did without you being my first coach and giving me the freedom to play my game. I can only say THANK YOU. For everything. RIP legend.

The Mavericks had not made the playoffs since 1990 before Nelson guided them to four straight playoff appearances (2001-04), including a 60-22 season capped by a Western Conference Finals run in 2003. 

Nelson resigned as Dallas' coach late in the 2004-05 season and appointed Avery Johnson as his successor. After the season ended, Nelson resigned as general manager, tapping his son Donnie as his replacement. Nelson took a year off from coaching before going back to Golden State. The Warriors improved from 34-48 to 42-40 to earn the eighth playoff seed. Nelson outcoached his protege Avery Johnson as Nelson's Warriors authored one of the most memorable upsets in NBA playoff history by beating the top seeded 67-15 Mavericks 4-2 in the first round of the 2007 playoffs. The "We Believe" Warriors lost 4-1 in the second round. 

The Warriors improved to 48-34 next season, but missed the playoffs in a stacked Western Conference. That season, Nelson and Webber had a rapprochement, and Webber rejoined the Warriors, though he only played nine games before injuries forced him to retire. During the next two seasons, free agency and trades depleted the roster, but before departing the Warriors prior to the 2010-11 season Nelson laid the foundation for the team's future championship success by pushing the front office to select Stephen Curry with the seventh overall selection in the 2009 NBA Draft. It may be hard to imagine now, but at that time it was far from clear that Curry would be an All-Star, let alone an all-time great. The Warriors went 26-56 in Nelson's last season as Curry averaged 17.5 ppg and 5.9 apg to finish second to Tyreke Evans in Rookie of the Year voting.

Curry reacted to Nelson's passing with this statement:

One of the big reasons I was drafted by the Warriors was because of Don Nelson. The story is he never liked rookies, but from Day 1 he challenged me and gave me an opportunity to be my best self on the court. He taught me a lot during our one season together and I'll never forget the night he became the winningest coach in NBA history in Minnesota. We were so happy for him.

He had an immeasurable impact on the sport and will go down as one of the greatest minds in the history of the game. He's a true icon and will be missed by the countless number of people he touched, including myself, during a legendary career.

Nelson displayed keen insights in player evaluation not only in terms of the players he drafted and molded but also in some of his public comments about various players. For example, unlike many so-called experts who ignorantly bashed Kobe Bryant as selfish, Nelson fully appreciated Bryant's greatness, as indicated by this 2008 quote: "He allows these guys to do their thing and be successful and encourages them. He makes them even better than they are by playing alongside of him. He truly makes everybody better when he's on the floor with them. And you couldn't say that five years ago. But now you can say it. That's why he's such a complete player. When coaches look at players, we look at them a little bit differently. Do they make their surrounding teammates better? The answer with him is yes, yes, yes."

In another comment during Bryant's MVP-winning 2007-08 season, Nelson declared, "Kobe now has a grasp on the game like no other player and he controls it when he wants to. He makes the players alongside him succeed and he is a real leader out there. He has the whole package going for him; he is not just the best player in the league but probably the best leader. He could get 50 any time, I'm sure."

As part of the NBA's 50th anniversary celebration in 1996-97, Nelson was named one of the top 10 NBA coaches of all-time, and when the NBA celebrated its 75th anniversary in 2021-22 Nelson was honored as one of the top 15 NBA coaches of all-time. Despite not winning an NBA title, Nelson will long be remembered as one of the greatest and most innovative NBA coaches.

Labels: Boston Celtics, Chris Mullin, Dallas Mavericks, Dirk Nowitzki, Don Nelson, Golden State Warriors, Marques Johnson, Milwaukee Bucks, Mitch Richmond, New York Knicks, Paul Pressey, Steve Nash, Tim Hardaway

posted by David Friedman @ 12:32 PM

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Notes About the 2025 Christmas Day Quintupleheader

This is the 18th consecutive year that the NBA had a Christmas Day quintupleheader, and the 78th year that the NBA played games on Christmas Day, a tradition that began during the league's second season. Christmas Day may be the unofficial start of the NBA season for casual fans, but the reality is that we are more than a third of the way through the NBA season; we have seen enough to separate the contenders from the pretenders, which is why my Christmas Day game recaps examine the big picture along with the small picture of the individual game outcomes.

The 2025 Christmas Day quintupleheader featured the reigning NBA champion Oklahoma City Thunder, the 2023 NBA champion Denver Nuggets, the 2022 NBA champion Golden State Warriors, and the 2020 NBA champion L.A. Lakers; the Thunder are intact and dominant, while the latter three teams have had significant roster overhauls since winning their championships, and of those three only the Nuggets look like legitimate contenders this season.   

Game One: New York Knicks 126, Cleveland Cavaliers 124

1) The New York Knicks extended their NBA record by playing on Christmas Day for the 58th time, a nod to the league's East Coast roots. The Knicks reached the NBA Finals three straight times (1951-53) in the league's early years before suffering a playoff drought from 1960-66. The franchise's golden years extended from 1969-74 when the team reached the Eastern Division Finals or Eastern Conference Finals six straight times, capturing two NBA titles (1970, 1973) with Willis Reed and Walt Frazier leading the way. The Knicks did not reach the Eastern Conference Finals again until 1993. They lost in the NBA Finals in 1994 and 1999, and then did not advance to the Eastern Conference Finals from 2001 until last season's appearance. 

This season is championship or bust for the Knicks, who replaced coach Tom Thibodeau with Mike Brown. The Knicks beat the San Antonio Spurs 124-113 to capture the 2025 NBA Cup, and they entered Christmas Day with the Eastern Conference's second best record. 

The Cleveland Cavaliers won their only NBA title in 2016 while making four straight NBA Finals appearances from 2015-18. They missed the playoffs for four straight years after LeBron James fled to L.A. before reaching the playoffs for each of the past three seasons. The Cavaliers posted the Eastern Conference's best record last season (64-18) before losing in the second round of the playoffs for the second consecutive year.

On paper, the Cavaliers have all of the necessary elements to make a championship run: an MVP-caliber player (Donovan Mitchell) paired with a multiple-time All-Star (Darius Garland) in a dynamic backcourt, a young and talented big man who has already made the All-NBA Second Team while winning the Defensive Player of the Year award (Evan Mobley), an athletic big man who has made the All-Star team as a rebounder and high percentage paint scorer (Jarrett Allen), and a deep, versatile supporting cast. However, the whole has consistently added up to less than the sum of the parts, and that should not be attributed just to injuries; the eye test indicates that the Cavaliers lack mental and physical toughness, demonstrated by the fact that they fold when they are challenged by good teams in the playoffs. The only way to refute that contention is to make a long playoff run, and if the Cavaliers could not do that after a 64-18 season then it will be a tall task for them to do it after a slow start that has them languishing in seventh place in the Eastern Conference.

2) The Cavaliers jumped out to an 18-3 lead by the 6:42 mark of the first quarter. Karl-Anthony Towns was on the bench after picking up two quick fouls--undisciplined fouling is a recurring problem for him--and the Knicks looked shell-shocked. The Knicks cut the margin to nine (20-11) on a rare six point possession: Lonzo Ball was assessed a flagrant foul for a reckless closeout as Jalen Brunson drained a three pointer, resulting in a Brunson free throw followed by a Mohamed Diawara bucket after the Knicks inbounded the ball. The Cavaliers seemed to regain control, though, and they led 38-23 at the end of the first quarter as Mitchell (12 points on 5-6 field goal shooting) and Garland (nine points on 3-4 field goal shooting) set the pace offensively while the Cavaliers held the Knicks to 9-24 (.375) field goal shooting. ESPN's Doris Burke mentioned a pearl of wisdom from Doug Collins that I often cite: some people focus on so-called "clutch" stats or fourth quarter numbers, but the NBA is often a first quarter league, because what happens in the first quarter sets the tone for the rest of the game (although that did not prove to be the case in this game due to New York's comeback/Cleveland's collapse).

Jordan Clarkson drilled two three pointers at the start of the second quarter to slash Cleveland's lead to 38-29, and that foreshadowed the Knicks outscoring the Cavaliers 37-20 in the second quarter to take a 60-58 halftime lead. Towns had six points and five rebounds in the second quarter after going scoreless with one rebound in the first quarter. Clarkson paced both teams with 11 second quarter points, while Mitchell did not score in the second quarter.

The Cavaliers reasserted control by outscoring the Knicks 38-24 in the third quarter to go up 96-84 heading into the final stanza. Jaylon Tyson led the way with 11 third quarter points on 5-6 field goal shooting off of the bench.

The Cavaliers led 103-86 early in the fourth quarter, and they were up 107-91 at the 8:11 mark of the fourth quarter after Garland dished to a cutting Tyson for a layup. They seemed to be in control--and then they collapsed. The fourth quarter boxscore is beautiful from the Knicks' point of view but brutal from the Cavaliers' perspective: the Knicks outscored the Cavaliers 42-28, outrebounded them 16-12, and shot .556 (15-27) from the field while holding the Cavaliers to .346 (9-26) field goal shooting. Brunson (13 points on 4-8 field goal shooting) and Tyler Kolek (11 points on 4-5 field goal shooting) did most of the scoring damage for the Knicks, while Mitchell Robinson had eight rebounds. Mitchell scored 15 points but shot just 4-11 from the field. No other Cavalier had more than four fourth quarter points.

Brunson has a track record of producing in the clutch, and his teammates follow his example. The Cavaliers rely on their talent, but when the going gets tough and they need defensive stops they fall apart, and hope that Mitchell's shot making will bail them out. That is not how championship caliber teams operate. 

3) Brunson finished with a game-high tying 34 points on 10-25 field goal shooting. Clarkson provided a huge boost with 25 points in 29 minutes off of the bench, and Kolek added 16 points in 25 minutes. Towns finished with 11 points and a game-high 14 rebounds, and Robinson had 13 rebounds in 17 scoreless minutes.

Mitchell had a game-high tying 34 points on 12-25 field goal shooting. Media driven narratives often link Cleveland's success to how frequently Mitchell shoots--suggesting that the Cavaliers are better off when he shoots less often--but he is not the problem: he plays hard and makes clutch shots; the problem is that the Cavaliers lack the necessary toughness to get stops and to complete defensive possessions with rebounds.

Garland added 20 points and a game-high 10 assists.  

Game Two: San Antonio Spurs 117, Oklahoma City Thunder 102

1) This is becoming one of the NBA's most intriguing rivalries, pitting the young reigning NBA champion Oklahoma City Thunder versus the even younger up and coming San Antonio Spurs; this will not be a full-fledged rivalry until the Spurs (1) make the playoffs and (2) face the Thunder in the playoffs, but the Spurs made their presence felt even before this game by beating the Thunder twice in 10 days after the Thunder started the season 24-1. The Thunder overwhelm most teams with their depth, defensive pressure, and quickness, but the Spurs effectively counter with their own depth, their ability to handle defensive pressure, and a horde of perimeter players who are able to contend with the Thunder's quickness. 

The Spurs are led by Victor Wembanyama, who has become more productive, efficient, and focused, slashing his three point field goal attempts per game from 8.8 last season to 4.1 this season; he is a force in the paint at both ends of the court, and the only question about him is if he will be durable enough to be a dominant player throughout the long regular season and then in a deep playoff run. Wembanyama is remarkably versatile, but it is worth noting--as ESPN's Jay Bilas did during the game telecast and as I did during Wembanyama's rookie season--that more than 40 years ago Ralph Sampson had similar talent in an era when big men were deployed in a much more restricted fashion than they are now.

The Thunder's early season success is remarkable not only considering that championship teams have to fight complacency, but also because 2025 All-Star Jalen Williams missed the season's first 19 games due to injury. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is the most statistically efficient 30-plus ppg scorer in NBA history, averaging 32.5 ppg with shooting splits of .557/.435/.884 while committing just 2.0 turnovers per game--and he also rebounds (4.8 rpg), passes (team-high 6.6 apg), and defends (1.5 spg). The Thunder rank first in points allowed, first in defensive field goal percentage, first in turnovers forced, second in steals, second in points scored, and third in field goal percentage. They rank 12th in rebounding after ranking 11th last season; they are not a physically overpowering team, but they are so dominant in most other categories that their relative lack of physical presence in the paint does not seem to matter.

2) The Spurs led 41-36 at the end of the first quarter. The Thunder usually win the possession game by forcing a high number of turnovers while committing few turnovers, but in the first quarter the Spurs had just two turnovers while shooting 15-21 (.714) from the field. The pace slowed a bit in the second quarter, but the Spurs again came out on top, 28-24, to lead 69-60 at halftime. De'Aaron Fox scored 21 first half points on 9-11 field goal shooting, Stephon Castle added 13 points on 5-8 field goal shooting, and Wembanyama came off of the bench (because he is still on a minutes restriction) to contribute nine points, six rebounds, and one blocked shot in 12 minutes. Gilgeous-Alexander led the Thunder with 16 points on 5-9 field goal shooting.

When the Thunder don't force turnovers they are not able to get easy scoring opportunities, which compels them to rely on their halfcourt offense--and their halfcourt offense can be balky, particularly when confronted with Wembanyama lurking as a mobile and long-armed rim protector. The Thunder had just five fast break points in the first half, and they shot 23-48 (.479) from the field. Conversely, the Spurs turned their stops into easy scoring opportunities, producing 15 fast break points in the first half.

The Spurs won the third quarter, 26-19, and led 95-80 heading into the fourth quarter. They committed just two turnovers while holding the Thunder to 7-26 (.269) field goal shooting with just two fast break points. No Spur scored more than five points, but seven Spurs scored during the third quarter.

The fourth quarter was more of the same: the Thunder had no fast break points and they shot just 7-21 (.333) from the field. The Thunder won the quarter, 23-22, but the Spurs led by double digits for most of the quarter--and never by less than nine points--while cruising to victory. Often, the Thunder's starters sit out the last part of the fourth quarter because the Thunder are winning comfortably, but in this game they sat out the final two minutes because the game was out of reach.

It cannot necessarily be said that the Spurs have created a blueprint to beat the Thunder, because a blueprint is a plan that can be used by anyone to build something; the Spurs' "blueprint" works because of the way that they integrate Wembanyama's talents with a corps of athletic perimeter players, so a team would have to have similar personnel to effectively utilize the "blueprint." Nevertheless, the Spurs have shown that the Thunder are not unbeatable, and that alone provides hope to other contending teams. Basketball, like many sports, is about matchups, and this matchup is clearly difficult for the Thunder.  

3) Fox scored a game-high 29 points on 12-19 field goal shooting. Castle contributed 19 points, a game-high seven assists, and four rebounds. Wembanyama finished with 19 points, a team-high 11 rebounds, and a +13 plus/minus number in 26 minutes. 

Gilgeous-Alexander led the Thunder with 22 points and he did not commit a turnover, but he shot just 7-19 from the field. Isaiah Hartenstein chipped in 13 points and a game-high tying 12 rebounds. Jalen Williams (12 points on 5-13 field goal shooting plus a team-high six assists), Alex Caruso (12 points on 3-13 field goal shooting), and Chet Holmgren (10 points, game-high tying 12 rebounds) all had quiet games by their standards.

Game Three: Golden State Warriors 126, Dallas Mavericks 116 

1) The Golden State Warriors began this season with high hopes after closing last season with a 21-7 sprint before losing to the Minnesota Timberwolves in the second round; the Warriors believed that they could have won that series if Stephen Curry had not suffered a series-ending injury in game one. This season, the Warriors entered Christmas Day with a 15-15 record that stamps them as a Play-In Tournament team, not a championship contender. Jimmy Butler's arrival late last season provided a boost, but the consistent pattern in his career is that there is a short shelf life before either he becomes disenchanted with his team or his team becomes disenchanted with him. Butler's numbers this season are solid but they are not translating into wins.

The Dallas Mavericks have been in turmoil since they traded franchise cornerstone Luka Doncic to the L.A. Lakers for Anthony Davis; the negative repercussions--on and off the court--from that baffling move led to the firing earlier this season of general manager Nico Harrison. The Mavericks lucked out in the 2025 Draft Lottery, receiving the number one overall pick. They cashed in that prize for Cooper Flagg, who needed just a few games to adjust to the NBA before emerging as a high level performer; he averaged 24.1 ppg, 6.2 rpg, and 4.5 apg in his first 10 games in December with shooting splits of .527/.308/.809, and Flagg broke LeBron James' record for being the youngest player to score 40 points in an NBA game.

The injury-riddled Mavericks started the season 3-10 before going 9-9 in their next 18 games. If Kyrie Irving--who has not yet played this season because he is rehabbing from the torn left ACL he suffered last season--and Anthony Davis are healthy and productive down the stretch then the Mavericks could reach the playoffs via the Play-In Tournament. 

2) Other than trailing 6-4 at the 10:05 mark of the first quarter and four ties later in that quarter, the Warriors led for the entire game, and they led by double digits for most of the second half. Davis scored three points in 11 minutes before being shut down with a groin injury; the Mavericks were +6 during those minutes, and -16 the rest of the way, which is the story of the post-Doncic Mavericks in microcosm: Davis has played well in brief spurts, but he is injured and out of action more often than he plays.

The Warriors shot just .444 (44-99) from the field, but they had 13 offensive rebounds while the Mavericks had just three, and the Warriors made 14 three pointers while holding the Mavericks (who do not shoot a lot of three pointers) to four three pointers. Those extra possessions and extra three pointers proved to be the difference.

3) Curry, who has generally not played well on Christmas Day, scored a team-high 23 points on 6-18 field goal shooting (including 2-10 from three point range). De'Anthony Melton scored 16 points off of the bench and had a game-best +19 plus/minus number in 24 minutes. Butler added 14 points, nine rebounds, and a game-high nine assists. Al Horford provided a boost with 14 points off of the bench in just 11 minutes. He shot 4-6 from three point range. Draymond Green contributed his usual triple single (seven points on 2-7 field goal shooting, five rebounds, three assists), he had more fouls (five) than field goals made, and he had a team-worst -9 plus/minus number. 

Flagg scored a game-high 27 points on 13-21 field goal shooting, and he had six rebounds plus a team-high five assists while committing just one turnover in 36 minutes. Flagg is 19 years old, but he plays with a mature poise that belies his youth. ESPN's Charles Barkley said that the Mavericks should trade Davis and Irving, and rebuild with Flagg as the franchise cornerstone; of course, the Mavericks would like to see how good their team is when that trio plays together before they dismantle their squad. Brandon Williams scored 26 points in 30 minutes off of the bench. 

Game Four: Houston Rockets 119, L.A. Lakers 96

1) The Houston Rockets lost four of their last five games prior to Christmas Day, including three overtime losses--two of which were against poor teams (New Orleans Pelicans and Sacramento Kings). The Rockets gave up at least 125 points in each of those four losses, and that skid dropped the Rockets to sixth in the Western Conference. Adding Kevin Durant has sparked the offense--the Rockets rank third in the league in scoring and fifth in field goal percentage after ranking 13th and 21st respectively in those categories last season--so if the Rockets can reestablish their typically strong defense then they will climb back toward the top of the Western Conference standings.

The L.A. Lakers entered Christmas Day in fourth place in the Western Conference, but back to back blowout losses to the L.A. Clippers (103-88) and Phoenix Suns (132-108) exposed the Lakers' poor defense, lack of overall team speed, and lack of hustle. The Lakers feasted on an easy early season schedule, but they rank 19th in points allowed and 26th in defensive field goal percentage, two indicators that they will struggle when they play good teams.

Luka Doncic has clearly surpassed LeBron James as the Lakers' best player, putting James in a position that he has never faced during his unprecedentedly long NBA career. Will he accept being the second option, or even sometimes the third option when Austin Reaves is cooking? James' success--both individually and from a team perspective--has been founded on his superior talent, not on his leadership and certainly not on being willing to accommodate any role short of being the man in charge and the focus of attention. James has a checkered history at best as a leader, including quitting in the playoffs at least twice as the best player on a championship contending team (versus Boston in the 2010 playoffs and versus Dallas in the 2011 NBA Finals). Even after James won two titles with the Miami Heat, his contentious departure from Miami inspired Pat Riley to refer to "No more smiling faces with hidden agendas," a clear reference to James' divisive impact on the team. 

James is a major part of the problem defensively, and because Doncic and Reaves are also subpar defenders it will be difficult to put all three players on the court at the same time, particularly against good teams. Will coach J.J. Redick bench James at key moments for a superior defender if Doncic and Reaves are carrying the load offensively? Considering that James and Redick were podcast buddies before the Lakers hired Redick, this will be a fascinating dynamic to watch--and, despite what Redick and his media friends insist, Redick is not a savvy or even above average NBA coach, which places the Lakers at a disadvantage.

According to Redick, there is no way that the Lakers' defensive shortcomings are his fault; he recently told media members that the Lakers practice all of the right rotations, so it is up to the players to do better. In short, he is a defensive genius, and his players are fools. The players must love how their coach stands up for them, and they'll love it even more during the inevitable losing streak that will happen once the Lakers start playing good teams. 

2) The Rockets exploited the Lakers' poor defense to race out to an 18-8 lead by the 6:48 mark of the first quarter, and they never looked back. By the end of the first quarter, the Rockets led 37-25, and James had a -19 plus/minus number, the worst by far of any player from either team. The Lakers won the second quarter, 28-26, to trail 63-53 at halftime, but the Rockets opened the third quarter with a 20-7 blitz to remove any doubt about the game's inevitable outcome. The Rockets' lead never dipped below 15 points the rest of the way. 

3) Amen Thompson scored a game-high 26 points on 12-19 field goal shooting, and he had a game-high tying +26 plus/minus number. Kevin Durant had 25 points on 8-14 field goal shooting while dishing a game-high nine assists, and amassing a game-high tying +26 plus/minus number. Jabari Smith Jr. scored 16 points and grabbed seven rebounds. Alperen Sengun added 14 points, a game-high 12 rebounds, and four assists as the Rockets outrebounded the Lakers 48-25. 

Doncic led the Lakers with 25 points, seven assists, and a team-high tying five rebounds; when your point guard is your leading rebounder with five rebounds, that is not good. James finished with 18 points, five assists, two rebounds, and a game-worst -33 plus/minus number. James and starting center Deandre Ayton had four rebounds in a combined 69 minutes, less than reserve Jarred Vanderbilt had (five) in 26 minutes. Reaves scored 12 points in 15 minutes before being sidelined by a calf injury.

Game Five: Denver Nuggets 142, Minnesota Timberwolves 138, OT

1) Nikola Jokic continues to move up in the all-time rankings. He recently broke Kareem Abdul-Jabbar's record for career assists by a center (5660), and after this game he is two triple doubles away from tying Oscar Robertson (181) for second on the career list behind Russell Westbrook (207). Jokic has 15 triple doubles in 30 games this season, and in nine of those games he had a triple double before the end of the third quarter.

2) Prior to this game, the Denver Nuggets beat the Minnesota Timberwolves by double digits in each of their first two games this season, which is noteworthy because the Timberwolves have been the better team for the past two seasons.

In the 2024 playoffs, the Timberwolves dethroned the reigning NBA champion Nuggets by using a large lineup featuring Karl-Anthony Towns, Rudy Gobert, and Naz Reid; the Timberwolves overcame a 20 point third quarter deficit to win game seven in Denver. After losing to the Dallas Mavericks in the 2024 Western Conference Finals, the Timberwolves traded Towns to New York for Julius Randle. The Timberwolves lost to the Oklahoma City Thunder in the 2025 Western Conference Finals. The Timberwolves entered Christmas Day in fifth place in the Western Conference, a disappointing position for a team with championship aspirations.

The Nuggets lost in the second round of the playoffs in each of the two seasons after winning the 2023 NBA title. They entered Christmas Day in third place in the Western Conference behind the Oklahoma City Thunder and the surging San Antonio Spurs. 

3) This game featured a sensational performance by Jokic, and big runs by both teams. Jokic erupted for 18 points, five rebounds, four assists, and two blocked shots in the first quarter, but the Nuggets only led 32-29 because Anthony Edwards countered with 14 points and three steals.

The Timberwolves used a 17-0 run in a little over five minutes to take a 46-38 second quarter lead, but the Nuggets closed the second quarter with a 19-9 run to end the half with a 57-55 lead.

The Nuggets opened the third quarter with a 22-8 burst extend their lead to 79-63. The Timberwolves countered with a 7-0 run in a little over a minute, but the Nuggets pulled away again, and led 92-78 entering the fourth quarter. Jokic had 32 points, 14 rebounds, 13 assists, and two blocked shots in 31 minutes through the first three quarters while shooting 10-13 from the field and 10-10 from the free throw line.

Non-Jokic minutes have been troublesome for the Nuggets in recent years--and were disastrous in the second quarter of this game--but the Nuggets held firm in the fourth quarter without Jokic and led 101-89 when Jokic rejoined the fray at the 6:53 mark. 

In an unexpected twist, the Timberwolves erased the Nuggets' lead with Jokic on the court. Jokic missed three straight shots, and the Timberwolves converted those empty possessions into points to pull within 106-102 before Jokic answered with a step back jumper. The Timberwolves called a timeout, and then Edwards drained a three pointer to cut Denver's lead to 108-105. After a Jamal Murray miss, Edwards' strong drive pulled the Timberwolves to within one point, but Murray hit a three pointer to give the Nuggets a 111-107 lead. Spencer Jones' putback put the Nuggets ahead 113-107 before Murray fouled a triple-teamed Edwards while Edwards was attempting a three pointer. Edwards made all three free throws. The Timberwolves converted a Murray turnover into a Jaden McDaniels fast break layup to cut the margin to 113-112 with 4.8 seconds remaining. Jokic hit two free throws with 3.6 seconds left, and the Timberwolves took their last timeout to set up their final shot--an Edwards turnaround three pointer from the left baseline to tie the score at 115 with 1.1 seconds left! Jokic's full court heave missed the mark, sending the game to what turned out to be a frenetic overtime.

Edwards opened the overtime with four straight points--a bank shot followed by two free throws--and then Donte DiVincenzo made two free throws to put the Timberwolves up, 121-115. Edwards delivered what seemed to be a dagger three pointer to give the Timberwolves their biggest lead of the game, 124-115. Jokic and Tim Hardaway Jr. each hit a three pointer to pull the Nuggets to within 124-121, followed by Julius Randle making two free throws. Jokic's three pointer from the right wing trimmed the Timberwolves' lead to 126-124, and then he tied the game with a one-handed runner in the paint. Jokic was called for a loose ball fall on Rudy Gobert, but the Nuggets won a coach's challenge, resulting in Gobert being called for his sixth foul and Jokic shooting two free throws. Jokic made both to give the Nuggets a 128-126 lead before Edwards' drive tied the score again. Before you could blink, Murray's three pointer handed the Nuggets their biggest lead yet in the overtime, 131-128. A loose ball foul sent Jokic to the free throw line, but he only made one out of two. Edwards answered with a two-handed dunk, but Edwards was called for a delay of game technical foul. Jokic made the free throw to put the Nuggets up 133-130. After a loose ball foul, Edwards got a second technical foul (and automatic ejection), resulting in Murray splitting a pair of free throws to put the Nuggets ahead 134-130. Jokic made both loose ball foul free throws, and McDaniels immediately answered with a three pointer to trim the margin to 136-133. Peyton Watson made two free throws, which DiVincenzo neutralized with a layup. Jokic reestablished a five point lead, 140-135, by making two free throws. Reckless fouling almost cost the Nuggets, as Spencer Jones fouled Bones Hyland behind the three point line. Hyland only made one free throw, inexplicably missing the third intentionally but failing to hit the rim on the attempt, thus giving possession to Denver. Jokic made two free throws, and then Hyland closed out the scoring with a layup. 

The Nuggets won despite being without the services of three injured starters: Aaron Gordon, Cam Johnson, and Christian Braun.

4) Jokic finished with game-high totals in points (56), rebounds (16) and assists (15) while shooting 15-21 from the field and 22-23 from the free throw line. His 18 overtime points broke Stephen Curry’s record (17, set in 2016). Murray had 35 points on 12-32 field goal shooting, and he dished for 10 assists.

Edwards led the Timberwolves with 44 points on 14-25 field goal shooting. Randle added 32 points, seven rebounds, and six assists. Gobert contributed nine points, a team-high 12 rebounds, and a game-high six blocked shots while amassing a game-best +18 plus/minus number.  

Analysis of Previous Christmas Day Quintupleheaders:

Notes About the 2024 Christmas Day Quintupleheader (2024)

Notes About the 2023 Christmas Day Quintupleheader (2023)

Notes About the 2022 Christmas Day Quintupleheader (2022)

Notes About the 2021 Christmas Day Quintupleheader (2021)

Notes About the 2020 Christmas Day Quintupleheader (2020)

Notes About the 2019 Christmas Day Quintupleheader (2019)

Several Stars Shine During Christmas Day Quintupleheader (2018)

Christmas Day Quintupleheader Recap (2012)

Comments and Notes About the Christmas Day Quintupleheader (2011)

Thoughts and Observations About the Christmas Day Quintupleheader (2010)

Labels: Cleveland Cavaliers, Dallas Mavericks, Denver Nuggets, Golden State, Houston Rockets, L.A. Lakers, Minnesota Timberwolves, New York Knicks, Oklahoma City Thunder, San Antonio Spurs

posted by David Friedman @ 1:52 AM

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Russell Westbrook is One of the Few Brights Spots in an Otherwise Dark Season for the Sacramento Kings

Russell Westbrook has been one of the few bright spots and high energy performers during a dark and dismal season for the Sacramento Kings. He had a team-high tying 21 points on 9-16 field goal shooting along with a game-high 11 assists, six rebounds, and just one turnover in Sacramento's 128-123 November 22 win versus the 12-4 Denver Nuggets. Westbrook scored 15 points in the fourth quarter, including a clutch fadeaway jumper with 36.1 seconds remaining to put the Kings up, 123-117. He also had three rebounds, two assists, no turnovers, and a +6 plus/minus number in the final stanza, and he was the only player on either team who played all 12 fourth quarter minutes.

Westbrook had a -13 plus/minus number overall for that game, and his plus/minus number for the season (through November 28, 2025) is -137, but the context for his season plus/minus is that the team's three big name starters--Domantas Sabonis (-159), DeMar DeRozan (-185), and Zach LaVine (-212)--have the team's three worst plus/minus numbers. It is fair to infer that their desultory performances are dragging down Westbrook's plus/minus number during the time that he shares the court with them, while Westbrook is providing a spark when he plays in other lineups.

The larger point regarding Westbrook is that it appears that Sacramento was the only team interested in signing him during the offseason, and he signed a signed a non-guaranteed veteran minimum one year deal for $3.6 million to join the Kings. Per HoopsHype, Westbrook's 2025 contract is tied for 299th in the NBA. Earlier this season, Westbrook extended his career triple double record while also breaking Jason Kidd's ABA/NBA career record for most rebounds by a guard. Through 19 games (he has started 13 of those games), Westbrook is averaging 14.0 ppg, 6.9 rpg, and 6.4 apg. His rebounding average is his highest since 2021-22, and his three point field goal percentage (.390) is a career-high. Among players who have participated in at least 12 games, Westbrook ranks third on the Kings in scoring, first in rebounding, and first in assists. Signing Westbrook is one of the few smart decisions made by an otherwise dysfunctional franchise that should not have fired coach Mike Brown and should not have attempted to build "Chicago Bulls West" with LaVine and DeRozan.

There are several teams lacking solid point guard play that are regretting--or should be regretting--not signing Westbrook, particularly considering that he was available at a bargain basement price. For example, the disappointing Dallas Mavericks rank 27th in field goal percentage, 28th in the NBA in assists, and 29th in scoring in no small part because they do not have a competent point guard on the roster; their point guard situation is so desperate that coach Jason Kidd--one of the NBA's all-time greatest point guards and thus someone who understands the requirements to play that position well--has resorted to playing rookie forward Cooper Flagg at point guard rather than rely too heavily on the nominal point guards on the roster, including the inconsistent D'Angelo Russell. It should be obvious to any qualified basketball talent evaluator that Westbrook is a better player and better point guard than Russell, but Dallas' recently fired chief talent evaluator Nico Harrison thought that trading prime Luka Doncic was a great idea, so it is not surprising that he chose D'Angelo Russell over Russell Westbrook.

Labels: D'Angelo Russell, Dallas Mavericks, Denver Nuggets, Luka Doncic, Russell Westbrook, Sacramento Kings

posted by David Friedman @ 9:12 AM

3 comments

Victor Wembanyama Dominates as Spurs Rout Mavericks in Cooper Flagg's First Regular Season Game

With all due respect to the other players on the Dallas Mavericks and San Antonio Spurs, we know the two reasons why these non-playoff teams from the 2024-25 season faced each other in ESPN's first telecast of the 2025-26 season: 2024 Rookie of the Year Victor Wembanyama and 2025 number one overall draft pick Cooper Flagg. Wembanyama led both teams in scoring (40 points), rebounding (15), and blocked shots (three) as his Spurs routed the Mavericks, 125-92, and he put himself in very distinguished company in two different ways. He set the franchise record for most points scored in a season opener--and that franchise history includes Hall of Famers George Gervin, David Robinson, and Tim Duncan; also, since the NBA began tracking individual turnovers during the 1977-78 season, four players have had a game with at least 40 points, at least 15 rebounds, and no turnovers: Moses Malone (twice), Shaquille O'Neal (three times), Anthony Davis (three times), and Victor Wembanyama. 

The most impressive and striking thing about how Wembanyama played is that he is noticeably bigger and stronger than he was last season, enabling him to attack the paint and eschew the long jumpers that he shot too frequently during his first two seasons. Being able to make outside shots and handle the ball on the perimeter are nice bonus features for the 7-4 Wembanyama, but the foundation of his greatness must be dominating the paint at both ends of the court--that will be his pathway to winning individual awards while lifting his team from the Draft Lottery to the playoffs. 

Stephon Castle, the 2025 Rookie of the Year, had a strong game (22 points, seven rebounds, game-high six assists), and could form a powerful duo with Wembanyama--and that could be a strong trio after former All-Star De'Aaron Fox returns from injury. Spurs' rookie Dylan Harper had a solid debut with 15 points on 7-14 field goal shooting.

The Spurs have enough talent, versatility, and experience to end their six year playoff drought, and this game was a good step in that direction. 

Flagg struggled to score, finishing with 10 points on 4-13 field goal shooting. As a versatile forward cast into an unfamiliar role as the starting point guard, he had no assists and three turnovers. The one positive is that he grabbed 10 rebounds. Charles Barkley--part of the award-winning TNT pre-game and post-game crew transferred to ESPN--said at halftime that the Mavericks are doing Flagg a disservice by playing him at point guard. Kenny Smith agreed, and noted that at point guard Flagg is being asked to pass to players who are not as good at scoring as he is. Barkley and Smith are correct that there is a big difference between being a skilled passer--which Flagg is--and playing the point guard position. I am not a fan of trying to convert versatile forwards into guards in their rookie seasons; it did not work well with Kevin Durant, and it is unlikely to work well with anyone else. Flagg must first learn how to play his natural forward position in the NBA before he learns how to play a new position. 

There is also a big difference between playing well in Summer League or preseason and playing well in the regular season. Despite his first game struggles, Flagg will be fine, but anyone who thinks that even the best college team would have a chance against the worst NBA team should note the huge gap between the college game--where Flagg was just the consensus Player of the Year--and the NBA game; the NBA game features much better players (and coaches) than the college game. 

Anthony Davis led the Mavericks in scoring (22 points) and rebounding (13), but he shot just 7-22 from the field and was outplayed by Wembanyama both overall and when they were matched up. P.J. Washington (17 points on 7-11 field goal shooting) was the only other Dallas player who scored more than 10 points. The Mavericks obviously missed the injured Kyrie Irving--who will not play until at least January 2026--and Daniel Gafford, who has a sprained ankle but is expected to return to action soon; however, even with those two players out, the Mavericks should not have lost by 33 points at home. Starting center Dereck Lively II was a non-factor with four points, two rebounds, and five fouls in just 10 minutes of action. Future Hall of Famer Klay Thompson was invisible (10 points on 4-13 field goal shooting), and the talented but inconsistent D'Angelo Russell (six points on 1-6 field goal shooting) reminded everyone why Dallas is his fourth team in the past four seasons.

Gafford's return, switching Flagg to his natural position, and playing with more energy collectively should help the Mavericks avoid more blowout losses.

Labels: Anthony Davis, Cooper Flagg, Dallas Mavericks, Dylan Harper, San Antonio Spurs, Stephon Castle, Victor Wembanyama

posted by David Friedman @ 9:46 AM

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2025-26 Western Conference Preview

The Oklahoma City Thunder had a historic 68-14 regular season during which they broke the NBA's record for point differential previously held by the legendary 1972 L.A. Lakers. The Thunder also became the first team to lead the league in fewest turnovers committed and most turnovers forced. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander won his first scoring title (career-high 32.7 ppg), first regular season MVP, first championship, first Magic Johnson Western Conference Finals MVP, and first Bill Russell NBA Finals MVP while earning his third straight All-NBA First Team selection. Gilgeous-Alexander is the first player to win the scoring title, regular season MVP, and NBA Finals MVP in the same season since Shaquille O'Neal (2000), and he is just the fourth player in NBA history to win the scoring title, regular season MVP, and the championship in the same season, joining Kareem Abdul-Jabbar (1971), Michael Jordan (1991-92, 1996, 1998), and Shaquille O'Neal (2000); Julius Erving accomplished that triple crown feat twice in the ABA (1974, 1976).

The Thunder enter the 2025-26 season with their entire rotation intact from last season. They have no obvious weaknesses, and it would appear that the only things potentially standing in the way of a Thunder repeat are injuries or complacency. 

Last season, the Denver Nuggets tied for the third-fifth best record in the Western Conference, and were slotted into the fourth seed based on tiebreakers. They defeated the L.A. Clippers in seven games in the first round before falling to the powerful Thunder in seven games in the second round. Coach David Adelman, who replaced the fired Michael Malone late in the season, did an excellent job both tactically and in terms of connecting with his players. After losing to the Thunder, the Nuggets traded oft-injured Michael Porter Jr. to the Brooklyn Nets for Cam Johnson, and they also bolstered their depth by acquiring Bruce Brown (who was a member of their 2023 championship team), Tim Hardaway Jr., and Jonas Valanciunas.

Under the coaching of Ime Udoka, the Houston Rockets soared from 22-60 in 2022-23 to 41-41 in Udoka's first season and 52-30 last year. The Rockets led the NBA in rebounding while ranking sixth in both points allowed and defensive field goal percentage; their only weakness was a lack of shooting, which caused the offense to break down, particularly in half court sets. Enter Kevin Durant, who the Rockets acquired from Phoenix in the offseason as part of a seven team deal.  

This preview has the same format as my Eastern Conference Preview; the following eight teams are ranked based on their likelihood of making it to the NBA Finals:

1) Oklahoma City Thunder: It is easy and commonplace to overreact after a team wins a championship, and to buy the notion that more championships are sure to follow, even though the NBA has not had a repeat champion since Golden State's Kevin Durant-led super team won in 2017 and 2018. However, there are legitimate reasons to believe that the Thunder have a great chance to not only repeat but to win multiple titles in the next few years: (1) Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is a young superstar who plays hard at both ends of the court and he is just entering his prime; (2) the Thunder are elite at both ends of the court; (3) the Thunder are well positioned under the current salary cap rules to keep their core group intact.

Injuries can derail any contender. The Thunder enjoyed excellent health last season, but if that changes then they could fall back. Complacency is another problem that championship teams must battle. The Thunder seem to be focused and hungry, but we won't know for sure until they navigate an entire season as the reigning champion. 

Gilgeous-Alexander has averaged at least 30 ppg for three straight seasons, joining a small group of players that includes Giannis Antetokounmpo (2023-25), James Harden (2018-20), Michael Jordan (1987-93), Bob McAdoo (1974-76), Kareem Abdul-Jabbar (1971-73), Oscar Robertson (1964-67), and Wilt Chamberlain (1960-66). Gilgeous-Alexander has also posted back to back 25-5-5 seasons, which is one benchmark of all-around greatness.

In general, tanking does not work, and I would push back a bit against anyone who suggests that the Thunder tanked to the top. It is true that the Thunder tanked for two seasons, but before tanking they had already acquired Gilgeous-Alexander in a trade, which means they had their cornerstone player; that approach should be distinguished from the tanking practiced by the Philadelphia 76ers and other teams that stripped down their rosters while hoping to win the NBA Draft Lottery and obtain a franchise player with the number one overall pick. I am not a fan of the tanking that the Thunder did, but there is no denying that it worked, even though it should be emphasized that any team that tanks without already having a player like Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is likely to end up in the same sorry state inhabited by the 76ers and other tanking teams. 

Jalen Williams--whose draft rights were acquired in the same trade that brought Gilgeous-Alexander to Oklahoma City--set career highs in scoring (21.6 ppg), rebounding (5.3 rpg), assists (5.1 apg), steals (1.6 spg), and blocked shots (.7 bpg) while earning his first All-Star selection, first All-NBA selection (Third Team), and first All-Defensive Team selection (Second Team). He posted similar numbers (21.4 ppg, 5.5 rpg, 4.8 apg, 1.4 spg, .4 bpg) during the Thunder's playoff run, capped off by a 40 point outburst in the Thunder's 120-109 NBA Finals game five win versus the Indiana Pacers. It should be emphasized that the Thunder acquired their two best players via trade, not by tanking.

Two offseason acquisitions paid huge dividends for the Thunder: Isaiah Hartenstein (team-high 10.7 rpg) ensured that the Thunder would no longer be pushed around in the paint, and Alex Caruso provided veteran leadership plus ball-hawking defense.

2) Denver Nuggets: The Nuggets pushed the eventual champion Oklahoma City Thunder to seven games in the second round, and then they improved their roster by acquiring Cam Johnson, Bruce Bowen, Tim Hardaway Jr., and Jonas Valanciunas while only losing Michael Porter Jr. and Russell Westbrook from their core rotation. The Nuggets' added depth should not only help in terms of regular season seeding but also in terms of not losing ground on the scoreboard during the playoffs when Nikola Jokic is on the bench.

Jokic is a generational player who has performed at an MVP-caliber level for the past five seasons, with no end in sight. He won the regular season MVP in 2021, 2022, and 2024, and he finished second in MVP voting in 2023 and 2025. Last season, Jokic averaged a triple double with a career-high 29.6 ppg (third in the league), 12.7 rpg (third in the league), and a career-high 10.2 apg (second in the league). The only other players who have averaged a triple double for a season are Oscar Robertson (1961-62; he also averaged an aggregate triple double for his first five NBA seasons), and Russell Westbrook (2017-19, 21; he averaged an aggregate triple double for the five seasons spanning 2017-21). 

Denver's success will depend on Jokic's continued greatness plus the health/availability of Jamal Murray (career-high 21.4 ppg in 67 games last season) and Aaron Gordon (14.7 ppg in 51 games last season), and the effective integration of the newcomers into Denver's offensive and defensive systems--but an injury-depleted Denver team without much bench strength pushed the Thunder to seven games in the playoffs, so a healthy and deeper Denver team should be a legitimate championship contender.

3) Houston Rockets: The Rockets made one of the offseason's biggest moves, acquiring Kevin Durant from the Phoenix Suns as part of a seven team deal in which the Rockets gave up Jalen Green, Dillon Brooks, and multiple draft picks (including the 10th overall selection in the 2025 NBA Draft). Durant is 37 years old and six years removed from the right Achilles tendon rupture that knocked him out of the 2019 NBA Finals and cost him the entire 2019-20 season, but he is still a very productive player. Last season, he averaged 26.6 ppg (just a shade under his 27.2 ppg career average) with shooting splits of .527/.430/.839--but he missed 20 games, and his Phoenix Suns did not qualify for the playoffs. Durant's efficient offensive game is just what the offensively challenged Rockets need after finishing 21st in field goal percentage and 21st in three point field goal percentage.

The Rockets' best player last season was versatile young center Alperen Sengun, who earned his first All-Star selection by averaging 19.1 ppg, a career-high 10.3 rpg (ninth in the league), and 4.9 apg. Amen Thompson averaged 14.1 ppg, made the All-Defensive First Team, and finished fifth in Defensive Player of the Year voting.

Starting point guard Fred VanVleet tore his right ACL during a September 2025 workout, and will likely miss the entire 2025-26 season, putting the onus on Thompson and Reed Sheppard to pick up the slack in an already thin backcourt rotation. Thompson worked on his playmaking this summer in anticipation of making greater contributions in that area even before VanVleet got hurt, and now that work will be put to the test. Sheppard only averaged 4.5 ppg and 1.3 apg in 12.5 mpg last season as a rookie, but the Rockets will need more minutes and production from him unless/until they acquire another point guard.

4) Minnesota Timberwolves: Anthony Edwards unleashed his inner Stephen Curry last season, setting career highs in three point field goals made (320, first in the league), three point field goals attempted (811, first in the league), and three point field goal percentage (.395). His evolution into a long range bomber is a missed blessing; there is some value in him being able to stretch the floor, but it would be preferable for the Timberwolves if someone else stretched the floor to enable Edwards to attack the hoop with impunity, because many players can learn to shoot but precious few can finish at the rim the way that Edwards can.

The Timberwolves lost in the Western Conference Finals for the second consecutive season, and for the second consecutive season they fell in just five games. Reaching the Western Conference Finals is no longer enough for this team, and getting routed again is unacceptable, but the sad reality for the Timberwolves and their fans is that the Thunder are still a better team, the Nuggets and Rockets made clear offseason improvements, and the Timberwolves stood pat.

Running it back with a good team is commendable, particularly in an era during which teams often have little patience for development and growth, but the Timberwolves will need a lot of development and growth to surpass the Thunder, Nuggets, and Rockets--and they will have to work hard to stay ahead of several other Western Conference teams as well.

5) Golden State Warriors: The Warriors were 25-26 and going nowhere fast last season before they traded for Jimmy Butler, who became the fastest player in franchise history to amass at least 350 points, at least 100 rebounds, and at least 100 assists, doing so in 21 games. The Warriors finished 48-34, earned the seventh seed by beating the Memphis Grizzlies in the Play-In Tournament, and then upset the Houston Rockets in the first round before losing 4-1 to the Minnesota Timberwolves. 

Stephen Curry sustained a series-ending hamstring injury in game one of the Minnesota series. His 24.5 ppg scoring average last season was his lowest full-season scoring average since he scored 23.8 ppg in 2014-15. He has not made the All-NBA First Team since 2021. Curry will be 38 years old by the time the 2026 playoffs begin, and it is fair to wonder how healthy and how productive he can be at this advanced stage of his career; basketball aging is different for agile 6-3 players than it is for big, strong players who can use their height, length, and strength to compensate for diminishing athleticism and quickness.

Butler is an impact player who has a demonstrably limited shelf life; he lifts his teams in the short run, but is rarely happy in the long run. The Warriors have a short timeline with the aging Curry and Draymond Green, so perhaps these "golden guys" can make a deep playoff run, but none of them have reached the NBA Finals since 2023, and two years is a long time for players who are well into their 30s.

The extended Jonathan Kuminga saga highlights the internal instability that has characterized this team for many years; the Warriors finally signed Kuminga, but he is clearly as dissatisfied with the organization as Coach Steve Kerr is with him, so it would not be surprising if the Warriors deal him in a midseason trade. The Warriors' improbable but impressive 2022 championship is a bright spot that makes it easy to overlook the fact that since Kevin Durant left in 2019 the Warriors have missed the playoffs three times and lost in the second round twice.

Championship or bust may be this team's mindset, but second round and sayonara is likely the best case scenario. 

6) L.A. Lakers: It will be interesting to see if the LeBron James public relations machine known as ESPN hypes up the Lakers as championship contenders, or if they give James the opportunity for a soft landing by lowering expectations. It is not clear what the Lakers expected when they plucked James from Cleveland in 2018, but it is reasonable to suggest that they expected more than one championship and it is certain that they did not expect to fail to advance past the first round five times in seven years. 

After James engineered Anthony Davis' arrival in L.A. in 2019, James and the Lakers thought that they had built a super team that could both win now and be positioned for a promising long-term future with Davis as the centerpiece after James retired. In the wake of the Lakers trading Davis to Dallas for Luka Doncic, we can close the book on the James-Davis era in L.A.: they won the 2020 "bubble title," and after that they had one Western Conference Finals appearance, two first round losses, and one season during which they did not even qualify for the Play-In Tournament. 

James claims that he had no idea that the Lakers planned to swap Davis for Doncic, but that is difficult to believe considering that James seems to have a heavy hand in every personnel (and coaching) move that the Lakers have made since he joined the team. Doncic, who earned five straight All-NBA First Team selections before missing the cut in his first season in L.A., led the Mavericks to the 2024 NBA Finals and is a more dynamic offensive weapon than Davis ever was. The Lakers went 18-10 during the regular season with Doncic in the lineup as Doncic became the fastest player in Lakers history to amass at least 700 points, at least 200 rebounds, and at least 200 assists; he averaged 28.2 ppg, 8.1 rpg, and 7.5 apg as a Laker in the regular season, and he averaged 30.2 ppg, 7.0 rpg, and 5.8 apg as the third seeded Lakers lost 4-1 to sixth seeded Minnesota in the first round.

The Mavericks traded Doncic because they were purportedly concerned about his conditioning, and it has been widely reported that during this past summer Doncic trained harder than he ever has to enter this season in the best shape of his life. James is still remarkably productive--averaging 24.4 ppg, 8.2 apg, and 7.8 rpg last season as a 40 year old to earn his 21st All-Star selection and his 21st selection to the All-NBA Team (extending his all-time records in both categories)--but the Lakers are Doncic's team now. This is the first time in James' career that he is clearly not the best player on his own team, and it will be interesting to see how Doncic and James navigate these uncharted waters.

During the Lakers' cameo playoff appearance, the Timberwolves bludgeoned them in the paint, so the Lakers addressed that weakness by signing Deandre Ayton, who was Phoenix' starting center when the Suns reached the 2021 NBA Finals but is viewed as a low motor player despite posting career averages of 16.4 ppg and 10.5 rpg. If Ayton rebounds, defends, and serves as a pick and roll lob threat for Doncic then the Lakers could be quite good, but Ayton has not played in at least 70 games in a season since his 2018-19 rookie campaign, and he played in just 40 games for Portland last season; if Ayton is unavailable or indifferent then the Lakers do not have enough size or defensive presence to match up with the elite teams.

Coach J.J. Redick acts and talks like he has all of the answers, but Redick was often outcoached last season, and before the Lakers acquired Doncic they had a mediocre offense and an atrocious defense. The Lakers improved at both ends of the court down the stretch, but Minnesota's Chris Finch coached circles around Redick in the first round. It is baffling that the Lakers recently extended Redick's contract--which had three years remaining--for an additional two years. James and Redick are friends who used to do a podcast together, so maybe securing a long-term payday for Redick is a gift from James who, presumably, will not be playing five years from now; there is no rational reason to extend Redick other than keeping James happy, and as a result of this decision the Lakers will be paying Redick long after James retires, even if Redick is not coaching the team by that time.

If Doncic and James stay healthy and Ayton stays focused, the Lakers could win 50 games again, but in the tough Western Conference that might not be good enough to claim the third seed again; the Lakers tied for third-fifth in the West with a 50-32 record but received the third seed on tiebreaks, so they could go 50-32 in 2025-26 and end up in the bottom half of the playoff bracket.

The Lakers may have a 10 game winning streak that puts ESPN's perpetual hype machine into overdrive, but when the going gets tough in the playoffs the Lakers will lose in the first round for the third straight year. 

7) San Antonio Spurs: There are no more excuses for missing the playoffs. The Spurs have a generational talent--the 2024 NBA Rookie of the Year Victor Wembanyama--plus they have veteran former All-Star guard De'Aaron Fox, and they also have 2025 NBA Rookie of the Year Stephon Castle. I am skeptical about the long term prospects of teams that tanked--and I am not convinced that the Spurs are on a championship track--but the Spurs have too much talent to not at least qualify for the playoffs.

The Spurs face the same challenges that young teams often have to overcome: poor shot selection (the Spurs ranked 17th in field goal percentage), lack of physicality (they ranked 19th in rebounding), and lack of defensive focus (they ranked 23rd in points allowed and 24th in defensive field goal percentage). They are not going to fix all of those problems in one season, but with Wembanyama anchoring the paint defensively and Fox running the show offensively, the Spurs should surpass the 40 win mark for the first time since 2018-19, the last season that they qualified for the playoffs. 

8) Dallas Mavericks: Kyrie Irving will miss most if not all of the season after tearing his left ACL late last season, but the cupboard is not bare; the Mavericks have Anthony Davis, the big man duo of Daniel Gafford/Dereck Lively II, and number one overall draft pick Cooper Flagg, who is expected to make an immediate contribution as a scorer, playmaker, and solid defensive player.

Davis had offseason surgery for a detached retina that he suffered last season, but he is not expected to miss any time this season as a result of the procedure. Davis averaged 24.7 ppg, 11.6 rpg, 3.5 apg, and 2.2 bpg last season, but he played in just 51 games; he averaged 20.0 ppg, 10.1 rpg, 4.4 apg, and 2.2 bpg in nine games with the Mavericks after being traded from the Lakers for Luka Doncic.

Daniel Gafford averaged 12.3 ppg, 6.8 rpg, and 1.8 bpg while shooting .702 from the field, but he only played in 57 games. Lively matched Gafford's .702 field goal percentage while producing 8.7 ppg, 7.5 rpg, and 1.6 bpg in 36 games.  

All of that big production from the big men in a small number of games added up to a 39-43 record, and a 1-1 showing in the Play-In Tournament, which was not sufficient to qualify for the playoffs. 

Klay Thompson will presumably shift from small forward back to his natural shooting guard position to make room in the starting lineup for Flagg. Thompson shot at least .400 from three point range in each of his first eight seasons, but he shot at least .400 from beyond the arc just once in the past four seasons after missing two full seasons due to injury. Last season, he scored 14.0 ppg--his lowest average since his rookie season--with shooting splits of .412/.391/.905. 

D'Angelo Russell will run the point until Irving returns. Russell earned his lone All-Star selection in 2019--his fourth NBA season--but Dallas is his fourth team since 2023. In the 2024 playoffs, he scored 23 points in the Lakers' game two loss to Denver, and then scored zero points in the Lakers' game three loss; such wild fluctuations explain both why teams give up on him and why teams give him another chance.

With decent health and a productive Flagg, this team could be good; add Irving to the mix, and this team could be very good--but the sad reality for Mavericks fans is that Davis and Lively will both likely miss extended time due to injuries, Russell is unreliable at best, and it is rare for a rookie to be a significant contributor on a contending team. The only Dallas players who participated in at least 70 games last season are Spencer Dinwiddie--who signed with Charlotte in the offseason--and Thompson.

The teams that finish seventh through 10th in the regular season standings will participate in the Play-In Tournament. The above eight teams are the teams that I predict will qualify for the playoffs, regardless of what the final regular season standings are.

In 2019, the L.A. Clippers traded Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and a treasure trove of draft picks (one of which became All-Star Jalen Williams) for Paul George; this deal was one of Kawhi Leonard's many preconditions for joining the Clippers. It is a huge understatement to say that the Clippers' plan backfired; while Gilgeous-Alexander is the centerpiece of a potential Thunder dynasty (with Williams as a valuable second option), the Clippers have reached the Western Conference Finals just once in the Leonard era, they have lost in the first round in each of the past three seasons, and the NBA is now investigating possible salary cap circumvention connected with the Leonard signing. Instead of having a young superstar who has not even reached his prime yet, the Clippers have not just the oldest team in the NBA now but the oldest team in NBA history (average age: 33.2 years).

Leonard has played in at least 60 regular season games just once in his six seasons with the Clippers. The Clippers' two big free agent signings are Bradley Beal and Chris Paul. Beal fits right in with Leonard and the Clippers: he has played in at least 60 regular season games once since 2019. Paul has not participated in the playoffs since he averaged 12.4 ppg on .418 field goal shooting while playing in seven of Phoenix' 11 postseason games in 2023, but if the Clippers make the playoffs he will have an opportunity to extend his all-time record of five blown 2-0 series leads. The Clippers will miss the reliable Norm Powell, who they shipped to Miami for John Collins as part of a three team deal.

The Memphis Grizzlies were in second place in the Western Conference before a second half of the season collapse that led to the late season firing of Coach Taylor Jenkins and then (after a first round playoff loss to the Oklahoma City Thunder) the trade of Desmond Bane to the Orlando Magic for Cole Anthony, Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, and four first round draft picks. The Grizzlies appear to be stuck in the middle as a team that is not contending but also not committed to full scale rebuilding.

The Sacramento Kings fired 2023 NBA Coach of the Year Mike Brown after starting the season 13-18, and they went 27-24 the rest of the way under Doug Christie. During the season, the Kings traded De'Aaron Fox in a three team deal that brought Zach LaVine to Sacramento, reuniting him with his former Chicago teammate DeMar DeRozan. LaVine and DeRozan did not advance past the first round with the Bulls, and this "Chicago West" duo is unlikely to lead the Kings to the 2026 playoffs. 

The Portland Trail Blazers traded leading scorer Anfenee Simons (19.3 ppg) to Boston for Jrue Holiday, who has been a great complementary player for championship teams in Milwaukee (2021) and Boston (2024) but is now 35 years old and showing signs of decline at both ends of the court. They also signed prodigal son Damian Lillard, who will likely miss the entire season after suffering a torn left Achilles during the 2025 playoffs while playing for the Milwaukee Bucks, who stretched and waived his contract to clear space to sign Myles Turner. The continued development of Deni Avdija and Toumani Camara are bright spots in an otherwise cloudy picture. 

The Phoenix Suns hit the reset button after their "Big Three" of Kevin Durant, Devin Booker, and Bradley Beal failed to deliver a single playoff series win in two seasons, and did not even qualify for postseason play last year. The Suns parted ways with Durant, Beal, Tyus Jones, Jusuf Nurkic, and most of the veterans on the roster except for Booker. Core acquisitions include Jalen Green, Dillon Brooks, and Mark Williams, who will be the starting center if he can stay healthy. The Suns also replaced coach Mike Budenholzer with Jordan Ott, who has no NBA head coaching experience. The Suns were wise to break up an expensive team that did not even come close to contending for a championship, but the current roster is unlikely to make the playoffs in the loaded Western Conference. 

As has been the case for several seasons, the New Orleans Pelicans' hopes depend on Zion Williamson's health. Williamson has played in 30 games or less four times in six years, including missing the entire 2021-22 season due to injury, so it is reasonable to expect that (1) he will miss a lot of games and (2) the Pelicans will miss the playoffs.

The Utah Jazz pulled an Ace (Ace Bailey) instead of capturing the (Cooper) Flagg in the NBA Draft Lottery, providing yet another example of why tanking generally does not pay off. 

**********

Note:

I correctly picked five of the eight 2025 Western Conference playoff teams. Here are my statistics for previous seasons:

2024: 5/8
2023: 6/8
2022: 5/8
2021: 6/8
2020: 6/8
2019: 7/8
2018: 6/8
2017: 7/8
2016: 6/8
2015: 7/8
2014: 6/8
2013: 6/8
2012: 7/8
2011: 5/8
2010: 7/8
2009: 7/8
2008: 7/8
2007: 6/8
2006: 6/8

2006-2025 Total: 123/160 (.769)

Labels: Dallas Mavericks, Denver Nuggets, Golden State Warriors, Houston Rockets, L.A. Lakers, Minnesota Timberwolves, Oklahoma City Thunder, San Antonio Spurs

posted by David Friedman @ 12:02 PM

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