20 Second Timeout

Observations About the Opening Weekend of the 2026 NBA Playoffs

The eight series opening games from the first round of the 2026 NBA playoffs are in the books. Six games went as I expected, with the exceptions being Houston falling apart versus the L.A. Lakers after Kevin Durant did not play because of a bruised knee and Detroit losing meekly versus Orlando. It should be noted that even though it is often said that the first game of a playoff series is "a feel out game," the reality is that game one winners won the series 77.1% of the time since the NBA went to the current 16 team playoff format in the 1983-84 season. Last year, game one winners won 12 out of 15 playoff series, including all eight first round series. 

Here are my observations about each game, and my thoughts about each series. 

The 2026 NBA playoffs kicked off on Saturday with the Cleveland Cavaliers taming the Toronto Raptors, 126-113. The Cavaliers did not trail in the second half, and led 100-76 with 11:47 remaining in the fourth quarter. Both teams shot well from the field--Cleveland shot .543, Toronto shot .521--but the Cavaliers had 10 more field goal attempts because they won the rebounding battle 33-27 and because they had fewer turnovers. Donovan Mitchell scored a game-high 32 points on 11-20 field goal shooting; he has scored at least 30 points in an NBA-record nine consecutive series openers.

Max Strus added 24 points off of the bench on 8-10 field goal shooting, and James Harden contributed 22 points plus a game-high 10 assists. RJ Barrett paced the Raptors with 24 points on 7-13 field goal shooting. Mitchell scored 11 third quarter points as the Cavaliers outscored the Raptors 36-22 to blow open a game that had been close (61-54 Cleveland lead) at halftime. The final numbers are skewed a bit by fourth quarter garbage time--the Cavaliers were outrebounded 7-4 in the final stanza and they committed six of their 15 turnovers in the final 12 minutes--but the big picture view is that the Cavaliers are clearly the superior team, so we will not see Harden's annual playoff disappearing act until the second round.

In Saturday's second game, Denver's Nikola Jokic-Jamal Murray duo overwhelmed the Minnesota Timberwolves in a 116-105 win. Murray made all 16 of his free throws and scored a game-high 30 points despite shooting just 7-22 from the field. He also had seven assists and five rebounds. Jokic authored his 22nd career playoff triple double (25 points, game-high 13 rebounds, game-high 11 assists). He ranks third in career playoff triple doubles behind Magic Johnson (30) and LeBron James (28). Russell Westbrook (12) and Jason Kidd (11) round out the top five. At times, the Timberwolves seemed more focused on acting tough--by committing hard fouls and engaging in extra physical contact after the play--than playing tough, but the Nuggets stayed above the fray for the most part. Anthony Edwards led the Timberwolves with 22 points while also contributing nine rebounds and a team-high seven assists, but he shot just 7-19 from the field. These teams have been evenly matched in recent years, but the Timberwolves took command early with a 27-15 lead late in the first quarter. The Nuggets fought back to a 62-62 halftime tie before outscoring the Timberwolves 29-17 in the decisive third quarter. Jokic (12 points) and Murray (10 points) outscored the Timberwolves in the third quarter. Both teams showed that they are capable of making big runs, so this figures to be a long series.

Next, the New York Knicks grounded the young Atlanta Hawks, 113-102. Jalen Brunson scored a game-high 28 points on 9-22 field goal shooting, and he also had a team-high seven assists. Karl-Anthony Towns scored 25 points, grabbed eight rebounds, passed for four assists, blocked three shots, and committed a game-high tying five turnovers. C.J. McCollum led the Hawks with 26 points but he had just one assist while matching Towns for game-high "honors" with five turnovers. Jalen Johnson had 23 points and seven rebounds in his first playoff game as a starter after being a lightly used reserve in his first six playoff games. In the first half, Brunson (22 points) and McCollum (17 points) had a backcourt scoring duel, with the Knicks leading 57-55 at intermission. Towns dominated in the second half with 19 points as the Knicks outscored the Hawks 56-47 in the final 24 minutes. The Hawks vastly improved by getting rid of Trae Young, but they are not quite ready for prime time.

Saturday's final game provided the first surprise of the weekend: Kevin Durant was a late scratch because of a bruised knee that he suffered during practice. The Houston Rockets seemed baffled, lethargic, and offensively inept without Durant, shooting just 35-93 (.376) from the field in a 107-98 loss to the L.A. Lakers. The Lakers entered the series sans Luka Doncic and Austin Reaves, but they had some time before the playoffs began to adjust their rotation and roles accordingly. 

The Rockets--who lost starting point guard Fred VanVleet to a knee injury before the season and then lost rebounding machine Steven Adams to an ankle injury after he played just 32 games this season--did not have much time to prepare for Durant's absence, but they still should have been able to perform better than they did, particularly on defense. The Lakers torched the Rockets with 40-66 (.606) field goal shooting, led by Luke Kennard's playoff career-high 27 points on 9-13 field goal shooting. The seemingly ageless LeBron James had 19 points, a game-high 13 assists (including a playoff career-high eight first quarter assists), and eight rebounds. Deandre Ayton added 19 points and a team-high 11 rebounds as all five Laker starters scored in double figures. 

Alperun Segun led the Rockets with 19 points, but he shot just 6-19 from the field and was outplayed by Ayton. Houston's starters shot 26-75 (.347) from the field, including 9-28 (.321) from beyond the arc. The Rockets won the rebounding battle 44-35, including 21-3 on the offensive glass as they hustled to chase down their misses only to often miss again. Durant's status for game two is questionable, but with or without him the Rockets are capable of playing much better than they did in game one. Keep in mind that the Lakers have homecourt advantage in this series, which means that if the Rockets win game two then the Rockets are in control of the series even though the score would be tied 1-1; the Rockets would have an opportunity to take a 3-1 lead with home wins in games three and four.

In the first game on Sunday, the Boston Celtics destroyed the Philadelphia 76ers, 123-91. The Celtics led 33-18 after the first quarter and never looked back. Jaylen Brown scored a game-high 26 points on 11-21 field goal shooting, and Jayson Tatum had a brilliant all-around game: 25 points on 9-17 field goal shooting, game-high 11 rebounds, team-high seven assists. Tyrese Maxey led the 76ers with 21 points on 8-20 field goal shooting, and he passed for a game-high eight assists. Those numbers are solid--and better than the numbers posted by any of his teammates--but they are not quite enough for the number one option on a playoff team. Paul George was quiet (17 points, four rebounds, one assist) and VJ Edgecomb had just 13 points on 6-16 field goal shooting. The Celtics shot 45-90 (.500) from the field while holding the 76ers to 35-90 (.389) field goal shooting. I may have been generous in suggesting that the 76ers could avoid being swept.

The next game was even less competitive, as the defending NBA champion Oklahoma City Thunder eclipsed the defenseless Phoenix Suns, 119-84. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander shot just 5-18 from the field but he went 15-17 from the free throw line to accumulate a game-high 25 points in just 29 minutes. He also had a game-high seven assists plus four rebounds and two blocked shots. Jalen Williams added 22 points, seven rebounds, and six assists. Devin Booker led the Suns with 23 points on 8-17 field goal shooting, but Dillon Brooks shot just 6-22 from the field for 18 points, and Jalen Green scored 17 points on 6-16 field goal shooting. The Thunder led by 39 at one point, and this game was a "name your score" contest: the Thunder could have won by 50 or 60 if they wanted to do that, but a 35 point margin of victory with each starter playing less than 30 minutes was more than sufficient.

Sunday's third game was a stunner, as the inconsistent and offensively challenged Orlando Magic--who shot just 33-81 (.407) from the field in a 109-97 Play-In Tournament game loss to the Philadelphia 76ers last week--never trailed versus the Detroit Pistons en route to a 112-101 win. The 45-37 Magic shot a respectable 44-90 (.489) from the field while holding the East-leading 60-22 Pistons to 31-77 (.403) field goal shooting. Paolo Banchero scored a team-high 23 points, grabbed a game-high nine rebounds, and dished for four assists, including some very slick passes out of double teams/traps. The other four Magic starters each scored between 16 and 19 points. Cade Cunningham poured in a game-high 39 points on 13-27 field goal shooting, but his inefficient start--14 first half points on 5-12 field goal shooting--helped the Magic to build a 55-51 halftime lead. 

This was Detroit's 11th straight playoff game loss at home; the Pistons have not won a home playoff game since 2008. Is this the curse of Rodney Stuckey? I say that with tongue planted firmly in cheek, but the reality is that the Pistons have not been the same since Joe Dumars handed the keys to Stuckey. This is a new, young Pistons team that is years removed from the Stuckey fiasco, but the Pistons better hope that game one was simply a matter of rust and not a symptom of a deeper issue. The Pistons pride themselves on defense and physicality, but the Magic strolled into Detroit and took the Pistons' lunch money like a schoolyard bully.

The Sunday quadrupleheader concluded with Victor Wembanyama's much anticipated playoff debut, and he did not disappoint a San Antonio sellout crowd of 19,372 that included Hall of Famers David Robinson and Tim Duncan. The San Antonio Spurs defeated the Portland Trail Blazers 111-98 as Wembanyama scored a game-high 35 points on 13-21 field goal shooting to break Duncan's team record for most points scored in a playoff game debut (32). Wembanyama had five rebounds as the Spurs used a collective effort on the boards to outrebound the Trail Blazers, 45-38. No Spur had more than seven rebounds, but six Spurs had at least five rebounds. De'Aaron Fox and Stephon Castle contributed 17 points each, while Devin Vassell added 15 points. Deni Avdija had a team-high 30 points, a game-high 10 rebounds, and five assists in his playoff debut, but his Portland teammates did provide nearly enough help, scoring just 68 points on 27-70 (.386) field goal shooting. The Spurs looked like a championship contender, while the Trail Blazers looked outmatched.

Labels: Atlanta Hawks, Boston Celtics, Denver Nuggets, Detroit Pistons, Houston Rockets, L.A. Lakers, Minnesota Timberwolves, New York Knicks, Oklahoma City Thunder, Orlando Magic, Philadelphia 76ers, Phoenix Suns, San Antonio Spurs

posted by David Friedman @ 3:34 PM

2 comments

Hornets Douse Heat in Overtime Thriller, Trail Blazers Eclipse Suns With Big Fourth Quarter Comeback

The NBA Play-In Tournament has produced more than its share of boring blowouts, but Tuesday night featured two competitive and exciting games. The action opened with the Charlotte Hornets' 127-126 overtime win versus the Miami Heat--an instant classic featuring 16 lead changes, 17 ties, and many clutch plays by both teams. LaMelo Ball not only scored a game-high 30 points, but he delivered the game-winning shot on a powerful drive to the hoop with 4.7 seconds left in overtime. The Heat had no timeouts, so Davion Mitchell raced to the hoop to try to score, but Miles Bridges swatted away his layup attempt as time expired. 

Ball shot just 12-31 from the field--including 2-16 from three point range--but in addition to the game-winning shot he had a game-high 10 assists plus the game's second best plus/minus number (+15). Bridges had 28 points and nine rebounds while shooting 5-10 from three point range. Brandon Miller contributed 23 points, five rebounds, and five assists while also shooting 5-10 from three point range. Coby White scored 19 points, shot 5-8 from three point range, and notched the game's best plus/minus number (+21). The Hornets had 17 offensive rebounds, and they outrebounded the Heat 54-48 overall.

Mitchell paced the Heat with 28 points, Andrew Wiggins scored 27 points, and Tyler Herro added 23 points despite shooting just 7-18 from the field. Kal'el Ware had 12 points, a game-high 19 rebounds, and a game-high five blocked shots. Norman Powell--the Heat's only All-Star this season--scored 11 points in just 19 minutes and was the only Heat player who had a double digit plus/minus number (+11). 

The Hornets took a 26-18 lead at the 3:33 mark of the first quarter on the strength of offensive rebounding and three point shooting, but the Heat trimmed the deficit to 26-24 by the end of the first quarter, foreshadowing how this game would be a back and forth struggle. 

The Hornets led 30-26 at the 10:58 mark of the second quarter when Ball grabbed the ankle of an off balance Bam Adebayo, who went crashing to the floor and left the game with a lower back injury--but no foul was called on the play, and the referees did not review the sequence, much to the chagrin of Miami coach Erik Spoelstra, who said after the game that Ball should have been ejected. Lead referee Zach Zarba explained to Amazon Prime's Cassidy Hubbarth that a change of possession occurred before the referees had a chance to stop play, so by rule they were not able to review what happened; this seems to be a major loophole in the rules: why should a player get away with a flagrant foul because the referees were looking the wrong way for a split second? If a player is injured badly enough that he cannot return to the game, there should be some mechanism for the referees to review how that injury happened. Adebayo had six points, three rebounds, and a +1 plus/minus number in 11 minutes up to that point.

The Heat battled back to go up 39-37 midway through the second quarter, and they enjoyed a 54-52 halftime lead. Mitchell and Wiggins led the Heat with 10 first half points each, while Ball scored 17 first half points for the Hornets, who shot just 7-21 (.333) from beyond the arc.

The Hornets made a 10-0 run to take an 84-79 lead at the 1:28 mark of the third quarter. During the ensuing timeout, Hubbarth reported that Adebayo would not return to the game. The Hornets pushed the margin to eight (93-85) early in the fourth quarter before the Heat countered with a 12-0 run to take a 97-93 lead with 7:25 remaining in regulation. Herro's three pointer at the 2:16 mark put the Heat up 111-105, but Bridges' three pointer cut the lead in half and then Miller drained a three pointer after Jaime Jaquez Jr. split a pair of free throws. Herro made two free throws to put Miami up 114-111. The Hornets called timeout, and then White hit a tough three pointer from the corner to tie the score; an interesting aspect of that play is that Kon Knueppel--who led the NBA this season with 273 three point field goals made, setting the NBA rookie record and the Charlotte franchise record--was relegated to the bench and not even used as a decoy. Knueppel did not play at all in the overtime, and he finished with just six points on 2-12 field goal shooting, including 0-6 from beyond the arc. Herro's three pointer at the buzzer was off the mark, sending the game to overtime.

The Hornets led 123-118 at the 1:33 mark of overtime, but Herro went on a 6-0 run to give the Heat a 126-125 lead with 8.7 seconds remaining. Herro's burst included three clutch free throws after being fouled by Ball on a three point field goal attempt. Ball made up for his foul gaffe by scoring the game-winning layup.  

The Hornets can grab the Eastern Conference's eighth seed with a win on Friday, but the Heat are eliminated from playoff contention. 

In the second game of Amazon Prime's doubleheader, Deni Avdija poured in a game-high 41 points on 15-22 field goal shooting while also dishing for a game-high 12 assists and grabbing seven rebounds to power the Portland Trail Blazers to a 114-110 road win versus the Phoenix Suns. This clinched Portland's first playoff berth since 2021. The Suns can still make the playoffs with a victory on Friday night versus the winner of Wednesday night's L.A. Clippers-Golden State Warriors game. Avdija looked like an in-shape, healthy Luka Doncic as he repeatedly broke down the Suns' defense with dribble drives culminating in shots in the paint, drawn fouls, or passes deftly sprayed to open perimeter shooters. Two-time NBA champion Jrue Holiday added 21 points, while Jerami Grant exploded for 16 points off of the bench in 19 minutes.

Jalen Green paced the Suns with 35 points. Devin Booker scored an inefficient 22 points, shooting just 7-17 from the field and 8-13 from the free throw line. Dillon Brooks had 20 points on 6-10 field goal shooting before fouling out with 16.1 seconds left in the fourth quarter. 

The Suns jumped out to a 14-7 lead by the 8:40 mark of the first quarter, and it looked like the moment might be a little too big for the young Trail Blazers, but Avdija settled his team down with 12 points and five assists in the second quarter as the Trail Blazers forged a 55-41 lead at the 5:23 mark of the second quarter after Grant made a three pointer. The Suns did not let the game get out of reach, and they pulled to within 65-62 by halftime. Green scored 22 first half points, while Avdija had 16 points and seven assists.

The Trail Blazers pushed their lead to 11 points twice during the third quarter, but they clung to an 83-82 lead heading into the final stanza. Green's jumper at the 11:44 mark of the fourth quarter gave the Suns their first lead of the second half, 84-83. The Suns extended their margin to 11 points twice during the fourth quarter, but an 8-0 Portland run slashed the lead to 100-97 with 4:14 remaining in the fourth quarter. At that point, Donovan Clingan committed a flagrant foul against Brooks, who sank two free throws to extend the Suns' lead to 102-97. Green's three pointer with 3:31 to go put the Suns up 105-97, but a 7-0 Portland run in the next 1:02 made the score 105-104. Booker split a pair of free throws and Grant answered with a three pointer to put the Trail Blazers up 107-106. The lead changed hands four times in the final 1:34, with Avdija putting the Trail Blazers up for good with driving layup with 16.1 seconds remaining. Green missed a long three pointer on the Suns' final possession, and then Grant ended the scoring with a fast break dunk.

In my NBA Play-Tournament preview, I picked Charlotte to beat Miami and Phoenix to beat Portland, so I am 1-1 so far.

Labels: Charlotte Hornets, Deni Avdija, Jrue Holiday, LaMelo Ball, Miami Heat, Miles Bridges, NBA Play-In Tournament, Phoenix Suns, Portland Trail Blazers

posted by David Friedman @ 2:58 AM

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The 2026 NBA Play-In Tournament, Featuring the Worst of the Non-Tankers

The 2025-26 season will long be remembered for the NBA de facto becoming two leagues: a 20 team league in which teams competed to qualify for the playoffs or at least for the Play-In Tournament, and a 10 team league in which teams competed to lose as many games as possible. The standings reflect this sharp divide; instead of wins and losses being distributed relatively evenly, the 10th seeded team in the Eastern Conference finished 11 games ahead of the 11th seeded team, and the 10th seeded team in the Western Conference also finished 11 games ahead of the 11th seeded team. The 10th seeded team in each conference qualifies for the NBA Play-In Tournament, while the teams finishing below 10th head straight to the NBA Draft Lottery. Last season, the Eastern Conference's 10th seeded team finished seven games ahead of the 11th seeded team, and the Western Conference's 10th seeded team finished just three games ahead of the 11th seeded team. During the 2023-24 season, the margins were four games and five games respectively, and in 2022-23 the margins were five games and two games respectively. In 1995-96, when the Chicago Bulls won a then-record 72 regular season games and eight teams from each conference qualified for the playoffs without an NBA Play-In Tournament, the margins between eighth place and ninth place in each conference were one game and three games respectively. 

In short, to the extent that tanking existed historically it was much more limited in scope than it was this season: fewer teams tanked, and they did so for a smaller portion of the season. NBA fans can thank "stat gurus"--who act like they have figured out the mathematical solution to every problem--and NBA Commissioner Adam Silver for the "tank-tacular" NBA, a league that charges full ticket prices and hefty streaming fees for the "privilege" of watching a third of the teams race to the bottom. Have any of the "stat gurus" noticed that many of the same teams are tanking each year, which would suggest to a sensible person that tanking is not the optimal way to build a winning team?

Most of the 2026 Play-In Tournament teams are not as good or as intriguing as the NBA's media partners assert, but four of these teams--two from the Eastern Conference and two from the Western Conference--will survive to participate in the NBA playoffs, which begin on April 18. 

Last season, five of the eight Play-In Tournament teams had losing records. Not surprisingly, when movable forces face resistible objects the result is not scintillating basketball; the 2025 NBA Play-In Tournament began with the 41-41 Orlando Magic eviscerating the 40-42 Atlanta Hawks, 120-95. This season, rampant tanking in the bottom third of the standings enabled seven of the eight Play-In Tournament teams to avoid having losing records.

The 2026 NBA Play-In Tournament starts tomorrow night with the 44-38 Charlotte Hornets hosting the 43-39 Miami Heat. ESPN's Charles Barkley has been calling the Hornets "The Dream Team" for months, and he was only half-joking: after starting the season 6-16, the Hornets went 38-22 the rest of the way, including a nine game winning streak featuring wins over San Antonio and Houston. The Hornets ranked first in three point field goals made as Kon Knueppel set the single season rookie record and the Charlotte franchise record for three point field goals made, and his league-leading 273 were just one more than his teammate LaMelo Ball's 272. The Hornets ranked third in three point field goal percentage (.378) but they are not as adept at making other shots, ranking 25th in overall field goal percentage (.460) and 13th in scoring (116.0 ppg). They finished fifth in rebounding, seventh in points allowed, and 11th in defensive field goal percentage. Brandon Miller (20.2 ppg), Ball (20.1 ppg), and Knueppel (18.5 ppg) lead a balanced scoring attack. The Hornets have not made the playoffs since 2016, and their top nine players have combined to participate in zero career playoff games.

The Heat boast about their "culture" and their championship aspirations, but they have not advanced past the first round of the playoffs since 2023. They used to be known for being a slow tempo team that played tough defense, but this season they ranked second in scoring and 22nd in points allowed. The Heat scored at least 135 points in 15 games, and they won 14 of those contests. First-time All-Star Norm Powell led the team in scoring (21.7 ppg) but he played in just 58 games. Tyler Herro averaged 20.5 ppg in 33 games. Bam Adebayo averaged 20.1 ppg, the second highest mark in his career--boosted by his 83 point outburst versus the defenseless, tanking Washington "Wheeze-hards." The Heat have been the unofficial kings of the Play-In Tournament: in 2025, they became the first 10th seeded team to qualify for the playoffs, and in 2023 they emerged from the Play-Tournament to make an improbable run to the NBA Finals before losing to the Denver Nuggets. 

The Heat won the first two matchups with the Hornets before getting smoked 136-106 on March 17. Adebayo missed that game due to right calf tightness. I expect the Hornets' defense and three point shooting to cause problems for the Heat, so I am picking the Hornets to beat the Heat. The loser of that game will be eliminated from playoff contention, while the winner will face the loser of Wednesday night's Philadelphia-Orlando game to earn the Eastern Conference's eighth seed.

In Tuesday's nightcap, the 45-37 Phoenix Suns host the 42-20 Portland Trail Blazers. The Suns seemed to be rebuilding after trading Kevin Durant to Houston in a seven team deal last summer, but instead they won nine more games sans Durant this season than they won with him in 2024-25. The Suns' top players missed a lot of games in both seasons, so health does not explain the improvement. Not surprisingly, the Suns are worse offensively without Durant, ranking 26th in scoring and 28th in field goal percentage this season after ranking 18th and 11th respectively in those categories last season. The difference is on defense, where the Suns improved from 22nd in points allowed to sixth while also inching up from 21st to 15th in defensive field goal percentage. Devin Booker led the Suns in scoring (26.1 ppg) and assists (6.0 apg), while two of the players acquired in the Durant deal have been major contributors: Dillon Brooks averaged a career-high 20.2 ppg and Jalen Green chipped in 17.8 ppg.

The Portland Trail Blazers have not made the playoffs since 2021 and have not advanced past the first round since their fluky 2019 run to the Western Conference Finals, but Deni Avdija's emergence as a first-time All-Star helped this young team improve just enough to at least contend for postseason play. Avdija led the team in scoring (career-high 24.2 ppg) and assists (career-high 6.7 apg) while also averaging 6.9 rpg. Shaedon Sharpe contributed a career-high 20.8 ppg, while Jerami Grant bounced back from an awful 2024-25 season (14.4 ppg on .373 field goal shooting) to score 18.6 ppg on solid .453 field goal shooting. First year head coach Tiago Splitter did an admirable job replacing Chauncey Billups at the last minute after Billups was placed on leave by the NBA because of his alleged role in a two-pronged illegal gambling scandal. As is often the case with teams that finish around .500, the Trail Blazers have mediocre rankings in many statistical categories, but they finished sixth in rebounding and seventh in blocked shots, numbers that hint at their youth and athleticism.

The Suns won the first two head to head matchups in high scoring games at Portland, and then the Trail Blazers won 92-77 at Phoenix. Booker and Brooks did not play in that game, and Avdija played less than a minute, so that contest does not say much about these teams at full strength. I expect Avdija to have a great all-around game, but Booker and Brooks will each score 25-plus points in a Phoenix win. The winner of that game will earn the Western Conference's seventh seed, while the loser will face the winner of Wednesday night's L.A. Clippers-Golden State game to claim the Western Conference's eighth seed.

On Wednesday night, the 45-37 Philadelphia 76ers will host the 45-37 Orlando Magic. The tanking teams should stop hiring "stat gurus" and instead take a graduate course on "The Process": after the 76ers reached the second round of the playoffs in 2012, and then missed the playoffs by four games in 2013, the 76ers hired Sam Hinkie as their general manager and embarked on a four year tanking program. As a result, the 76ers chose Joel Embiid with the third overall pick in the 2014 NBA Draft. Embiid missed his first two seasons due to injury, but in the next nine seasons he failed to advance past the second round--and he is currently sidelined after appendicitis surgery. Since "stat gurus" claim to love numbers, let the record show that the 76ers lost on purpose for four years--and a decade later all of that intentional losing has yet to produce a better playoff team than their 2012 squad. I realize that some "stat gurus" are as slow as they are stubborn, but objectively the numbers prove that tanking does not work.

First-time All-Star Tyrese Maxey had a breakout season, leading the 76ers with a career-high 28.3 ppg. He does not shrink in the playoffs like Embiid does, but he also has not proven that he can carry a team very far. Rookie VJ Edgecombe averaged 16.0 ppg, and he is the only one of the 76ers' top five scorers who played in at least 75 games. Injuries and a 25 game suspension for using performance-enhancing drugs limited Paul George to just 37 games, during which he averaged 17.3 ppg. Insert joke about the drugs not actually enhancing George's play very much--and his playoff resume is nothing to write home about. 

The Magic were considered to be a team on the rise after going 47-35 in 2023-24, but something has just not clicked since then. Injuries have not helped, but even when this team is at or near full strength it does not strike fear into the hearts of legit contenders. All they had to do to host Philadelphia in the Play-In Tournament was beat a Boston team that rested its key players in the last regular season game, but instead the Magic fell flat on their faces. Paolo Banchero made the All-Star team in his second season (2024) and has not been back since. He led the Magic in scoring (22.2 ppg) and rebounding (8.4 ppg), but the initial thought/hope that he could develop into a franchise player now seems to be unrealistic. Offseason acquisition Desmond Bane did his part, averaging 20.1 ppg while being one of just 18 NBA players who participated in all 82 games. 

With the 76ers at home and the Magic floundering around, it is tempting to pick Philadelphia, but the 76ers are 24-14 with Embiid this season, and 21-23 without him; in other words, new year but same old story: with Embiid, the 76ers are a 50 win regular season team that is just good enough to lose early in the playoffs, and without Embiid the 76ers are not good at all. If the 76ers were completely healthy, I would not pick them to advance past the second round this season, and in their current state I expect even the enigmatic Orlando Magic to beat them. 

Wednesday's action will conclude with the 42-40 L.A. Clippers hosting the 37-45 Golden State Warriors. The Clippers started the season 6-16 before cutting ties with Chris Paul. They soon went on a six game winning streak, and their 11-4 January record lifted them above the tanking teams and into fringe playoff contention. The Clippers did some more addition by subtraction in early February by jettisoning 36 year old James Harden in exchange for 26 year old Darius Garland. This is just the second season since 2017 that Kawhi Leonard played in at least 65 games; he conveniently landed exactly on the number that keeps him eligible for postseason award consideration, and he will likely make one of the All-NBA Teams after averaging a career-high 27.9 ppg with shooting splits of .505/.387/.892. Garland has been a dependable second scoring option, averaging 19.9 ppg in 19 games with the Clippers.

After Jimmy Butler played just 38 games before suffering a season-ending knee injury, and injuries limited Stephen Curry to 43 games, future Hall of Famer Draymond Green picked up the slack--and led Golden State to the last Play-In Tournament slot after Dallas, New Orleans, Memphis, Utah, and Sacramento decided to abandon even the pretense of trying to win. We have seen this Draymond Green experience before: in 2019-20 with Curry and Klay Thompson sidelined by injuries, Green led the Warriors to a 15-50 record. Green's fans describe him as essential member of four Golden State championship teams, but a credible argument could be made that his flagrant fouls, suspensions, and negative impact on team chemistry cost the Warriors almost as many championships as he helped them win--and the word "helped" is used advisedly: as the third and sometimes fourth best player on championship teams, Green was not as dominant as Dennis Rodman--a lock down defender and seven-time rebounding champion--nor was he as clutch as Robert Horry. 

This season, the Warriors were 24-19 with Curry, and 13-26 without him, with Green along for the ride in either scenario. The Warriors ranked 14th in points allowed, 22nd in scoring, 23rd in defensive field goal percentage, 24th in field goal percentage, and 25th in rebounding; some of those numbers are skewed a bit by Curry's extended absences, but the reality is that the Warriors are what their record says they are: not very good. The Clippers are not the second coming of the 1996 Chicago Bulls, but with Leonard scoring an efficient 30 points and Garland adding 25 points the Clippers will put the Warriors out of their misery.

In Friday's Play-In Tournament games, I expect Charlotte to beat Philadelphia and L.A. to defeat Portland. As noted above, Charlotte is inexperienced but the Hornets are stout defensively, while the 76ers are the predictable product of years of tanking. The Clippers sans Harden and Paul will complete their rise from the basement to the penthouse (or at least the eighth seed in the Western Conference playoffs).

Thus, if my predictions are correct, the Orlando Magic and Phoenix Suns will claim the seventh seeds in their respective conferences, and the eighth seeded teams will be the Charlotte Hornets and the L.A. Clippers. 

Watching a third of the NBA tank into oblivion this season was not enjoyable, and even finding the games may be challenging for the casual fan, so it should be noted that all of the 2026 NBA Play-In Tournament games are being shown exclusively on Amazon Prime. 

Previous Play-In Tournament Articles:

2025

Heat Bludgeon Bulls and Mavericks Topple Kings to Stay Alive in the NBA Play-In Tournament (April 17, 2025)

Magic Rout Hawks and Warriors Edge Grizzlies to Clinch Playoff Berths (April 16, 2025) 

Thoughts and Predictions About the 2025 NBA Play-In Tournament (April 14, 2025) 

2024

76ers Cool off Heat to Clinch East's Seventh Seed, Heat Will Host Bulls to Determine East's Eighth Seed (April 18, 2024)

Lakers Clinch West's Seventh Seed, Pelicans Will Host Kings to Determine West's Eighth Seed (April 17, 2024)

The NBA Play-In Tournament Gives Mediocre Teams an Opportunity to Salvage Their Disappointing Seasons  (April 15, 2024)

2023

Zion Williamson's Refusal to Play Despite Being Healthy Embodies What is Wrong With Today's NBA (April 13, 2023)

L.A. Lakers Need Overtime to Dispatch Shorthanded Minnesota Timberwolves in Play-In Tournament (April 12, 2023)

The 2023 NBA Play-In Tournament: Grab Your Popcorn and Savor the Mediocrity! (April 10, 2023)

2022

Notes on the 2022 NBA Play-In Tournament (April 14, 2022)

Nets Clinch Seventh Seed After Outlasting Cavaliers, 115-108 (April 12, 2022)

The NBA is (Usually) Fantastic (Except When Teams Bench Their Starters for the Season's Last Game) (April 11, 2022)

2021

Nine Versus Ten Does Not Add Up to Fantastic Basketball (May 20, 2021)

Thoughts on the NBA's Play-In Tournament (May 17, 2021)

Labels: Charlotte Hornets, Golden State Warriors, L.A. Clippers, Miami Heat, Orlando Magic, Philadelphia 76ers, Phoenix Suns, Play-In Tournament, Portland Trail Blazers

posted by David Friedman @ 11:26 PM

2 comments

The 2026 Naismith Memorial Basketball Hall of Fame Class Includes Mike D'Antoni, Doc Rivers, and Amare Stoudemire

The 2026 Naismith Memorial Basketball Hall of Fame class includes eight individual inductees, four of whom have NBA ties: Joey Crawford, Mike D'Antoni, Doc Rivers, and Amar'e Stoudemire. The other four individual inductees are men's college basketball coach Mark Few, and women's players Elena Delle Donne, Chamique Holdsclaw, and Candace Parker. The 1996 United States Women's National Team that won the Olympic gold medal is also being inducted; six members of that team--Teresa Edwards, Lisa Leslie, Rebecca Lobo, Katrina McClain, Dawn Staley, and Sheryl Swoopes--have already been inducted individually. 

This website focuses primarily on the NBA, so this article will focus on the Hall of Fame inductees who have NBA connections. 

Joey Crawford served as an NBA referee from 1977-2016, officiating in 2561 regular-season games, a record 374 playoff games, and 50 NBA Finals games. In 2005, he became the sixth referee to officiate in at least 2000 games, joining Mendy Rudolph, Jake O'Donnell, Dick Bavetta, Earl Strom, and Tommy Nunez. O'Donnell's career ended in disgrace after he openly had a vendetta against Clyde Drexler--culminating in ejecting Drexler from a 1995 playoff game for no good reason--and Crawford nearly met a similar fate, being suspended by Commissioner David Stern in 2007 after ejecting Tim Duncan without just cause. After the suspension, Crawford showed contrition, sought help, and was reinstated by Stern without missing any regular season games--but 2007 was the only year between 1986 and 2015 that Crawford did not officiate a game in the NBA Finals. The NBA was better off when it had a Commissioner who made decisions based on the best interest of the game, and not based on trying to be popular with media commentators (many of whom criticized Stern for suspending Crawford, and for other actions that they deemed to be too harsh). Crawford had a quick "hook" in terms of technical fouls/ejections, but in general he was respected as an excellent referee who was not swayed by the crowd; referees who are impacted by crowds are one reason that home court advantage exists, so players and coaches prefer referees like Crawford who do not pay attention to crowd reactions.

Mike D'Antoni won the NBA Coach of the Year award in 2005 with Phoenix and in 2017 with Houston. He ranks 22nd all-time in NBA regular season coaching wins (672), 32nd in regular season winning percentage (.560, minimum 400 regular season games), and 24th in NBA playoff coaching wins (54). He did not reach the NBA Finals in 16 seasons as a head coach, and he only reached the Conference Finals three times (2005 and 2006 with Phoenix, 2018 with Houston). D'Antoni's teams posted a .491 playoff winning percentage. 

I enjoyed interviewing D'Antoni in 2007 and having a conversation about that year's MVP race featuring Steve Nash, Dirk Nowitzki, and Kobe Bryant. D'Antoni unsurprisingly advocated for his player, Nash, but he acknowledged that the Suns would win at a high level if they had Bryant instead of Nash; that seems obvious in retrospect, but many media "experts" at that time questioned if then three-time NBA champion Bryant could lead a team as well as Nash, who won two regular season MVPs without reaching the NBA Finals during his career. Bryant finally won the regular season MVP in 2008, and he led the Lakers to two more NBA titles (2009, 2010).

D'Antoni received praise for his "Seven Seconds or Less" offense in Phoenix, as his Suns pushed the ball up the floor and shot as quickly as possible. He was lauded for his innovative offenses, but those offenses tended to sputter when it mattered most in the playoffs, and seemed better suited to pumping up individual players' statistics as opposed to generating championship level team success, as I noted in 2020 after D'Antoni's Rockets fizzled against the Lakers in the second round:

One might argue that D'Antoni is a master at developing players, but if that were the main story here then the players he "developed" would presumably retain what they had learned even after they no longer played for D'Antoni. No, the pattern above suggests that D'Antoni installs an offensive system that generates impressive individual statistics for his guards. It must be noted that D'Antoni has yet to reach the NBA Finals. In contrast, Phil Jackson's Triangle Offense did not elevate Michael Jordan's statistics but rather improved the team's offensive efficiency, resulting in six championships. Jackson's Triangle Offense had the same effect for the L.A. Lakers--the team improved (after failing to reach the Finals under previous coaches), as opposed to the individual players running amok outside of the context of playing championship level basketball... 

Under D'Antoni, average point guards put up All-Star numbers, and All-Star point guards get vaulted into the MVP conversation. Steve Nash is a more durable Mark Price--and that is no slight: Price was a great player, but no one gave him serious MVP consideration during his career, and no one gave Nash serious MVP consideration before or after the time he played for D'Antoni.

Dave Berri and other "stat gurus" expected D'Antoni to turn around the flailing New York Knicks, but I correctly noted that the Knicks were unlikely to improve under D'Antoni unless D'Antoni emphasized defense for the first time in his career. The Knicks posted a 121-167 regular season record under D'Antoni, making the playoffs once in four years--and they got swept 4-0 in that lone postseason appearance. D'Antoni coached the L.A. Lakers for two seasons, and then spent four seasons coaching the Houston Rockets, resulting in James Harden posting gaudy regular season statistics before flaming out each year in the playoffs, which has been Harden's pattern throughout his career.

Doc Rivers is a favorite target for casual fans on social media and for media members who don't understand basketball, but his coaching resume is impressive: 1192 regular season wins (sixth most all-time), 114 playoff coaching wins (fourth most all-time), and two Eastern Conference titles with the Boston Celtics (2008, 2010). He led the Celtics to the 2008 NBA title. Rivers' teams have reached the playoffs 22 times in his 27 coaching seasons. In 2022, Rivers was selected as one of the 15 greatest coaches in NBA history. Rivers' critics point out that he is the only coach in NBA history whose teams have blown multiple 3-1 playoff series leads, but they leave out the fact that Rivers' teams were the underdogs in two of those three series. Those who assert that Rivers can only be successful with stacked team forget or ignore that Rivers won the 2000 NBA Coach of the Year award after leading the "heart and hustle" Orlando Magic to a 41-41 record with Darrell Armstrong, a young Ben Wallace, Bo Outlaw, John Amaechi, and Tariq Abdul-Wahad as the five primary starters.

Amar'e Stoudemire was the high-flying, rim-running center for D'Antoni's Phoenix Suns. Stoudemire won the 2003 NBA Rookie of the Year award, and averaged 21.4 ppg and 8.9 rpg while shooting .544 from the field in 516 regular season games with the Suns. As a Sun, Stoudemire earned four All-NBA Team selections (including First Team honors in 2007) and made the All-Star team five times. Stoudemire earned his fifth All-NBA Team selection and made his sixth All-Star team in 2011 while playing for D'Antoni in New York. Injuries limited his availability and productivity--he did not play in more than 65 games in a season or average more than 18 ppg after the age of 29--but during his prime years he was a force in the paint on offense.

Labels: Amar'e Stoudemire, Basketball Hall of Fame, Doc Rivers, Joey Crawford, Mike D'Antoni, Phoenix Suns

posted by David Friedman @ 3:37 PM

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NBC's NBA "Throwback Tuesday" Hit All the Right Notes

NBC's "Throwback Tuesday"  doubleheader telecast took viewers on a sentimental journey complete with the old NBA on NBC graphics and music. I grew up with the NBA on CBS in the 1970s and 1980s, but the NBA's run on NBC from 1990-2002 was very memorable both for the quality of play and the quality of the broadcasts. During those dozen seasons, the Michael Jordan-Scottie Pippen Chicago Bulls bagged a pair of three-peats (1991-93, 1996-98) bracketed around the Houston Rockets' back to back championships. Then, the San Antonio Spurs ushered in the Tim Duncan era by winning the 1999 NBA title in the wake of Michael Jordan's (second) retirement and a lockout that shortened the regular season to 50 games. Phil Jackson came out of a short-lived retirement from the Chicago Bulls to coach the Shaquille O'Neal-Kobe Bryant L.A. Lakers to three straight titles (2000-02). During that era, NBC also covered the exploits of the 1992 Dream Team in the Barcelona Olympics, an epic event that inspired many of the international players who have dominated the NBA in recent seasons.

Thus, the NBA on NBC covered one of the most consequential eras in NBA history, a period that featured three three-peats, Houston's repeat, the first of Tim Duncan's five NBA titles, and the debut of NBA players performing for Team USA in the Olympics, which planted the seeds for the emergence of European stars such as Dirk Nowitzki, Giannis Antetokounmpo, Nikola Jokic, and Luka Doncic. 

Hannah Storm, Isiah Thomas, and P.J. Carlesimo hosted the "Throwback Tuesday" pregame show, fittingly called "NBA Showtime" in a nod to the NBA on NBC's original pregame show. Throughout the night, Storm, Bob Costas, and others made a point of acknowledging key members of the NBA on NBC family who have passed away or were not able to join "Throwback Tuesday" for other reasons, including Bill Walton (passed away in 2024), Steve "Snapper" Jones (passed away in 2017), Dick Enberg (passed away in 2017), Marv Albert, Ahmad Rashad, Julius Erving, and Matt Guokas. I did not hear Peter Vecsey's name mentioned; he has always been a divisive figure so perhaps his omission is not surprising--but the "Viper" was a memorable participant in the old NBA on NBC broadcasts.

The first game of the doubleheader was a dud on the scoreboard as the San Antonio Spurs routed the Philadelphia 76ers 131-91, but the telecast provided a great opportunity for Bob Costas, Doug Collins, Mike "Czar of the Telestrator" Fratello, and sideline reporter Jim Gray to reminisce not just about their shared time at NBC but their careers in general.

Costas mentioned the numerous great 76ers who started their careers in the ABA--including George McGinnis, Julius Erving, Bobby Jones, and Moses Malone--and he gave a plug to the recently released ABA-themed documentary "Soul Power." Costas began his broadcasting career as the play by play announcer for the ABA's Spirits of St. Louis, and he proudly calls himself an "ABA guy." His historical knowledge and his reverence for sports history add much value to every broadcast that he does.

Collins recalled scheming with his teammate Julius Erving to miss a free throw on purpose in a late game situation so that Erving could slam home the game-winning putback. It was very meaningful to Collins to return to Philadelphia, where his NBA playing career began and where he served as the team's coach from 2010-13.

Fratello talked about broadcasting games with play by play partner Marv Albert, who for decades was the witty, wry, and knowledgeable voice of the NBA. When Albert called a national game, his presence made it seem like a big event.

Gray recalled being a young reporter working in Philadelphia in the early 1980s when Erving was the NBA's biggest star, and Gray remembered covering a young Kobe Bryant for the NBA on NBC. It is poignant to see footage of Bryant at the start of his great career now that we know his life would end at just 41 years old in a helicopter crash that also took the lives of his 13 year old daughter Gianna and seven other people.  

As the Spurs put the game out of reach, Costas referenced Marv Albert's line about "extended garbage time," but Doug Collins gently countered by noting that Hubie Brown would get upset if NBA Draft coverage returned to air late after a commercial and missed announcing a draft pick; that moment was special for one of the 60 best players in the world, Brown would lament. Collins' point was that "garbage time" may seem insignificant, but it is important to the players who get on the court after not getting much action for most of the season. Collins also said that Hubie Brown is the "gold standard" for NBA color commentators, and Collins mentioned that he learned a lot from Brown. Brown is the best, but Collins is one of a select few who rank right behind Brown. 

While the 76ers absorbed a blowout loss--something that 76ers' fans have often suffered through during the seemingly endless "Process"--Collins noted that he was not coaching the 76ers when they started tanking 13 years ago. Fratello wisely pointed out that some teams tank and never get out of the tank--a sentiment that applies to the 76ers, who advanced to the second round in 2012 with Collins as their coach, and have not advanced past the second round since going into the tank in 2013. The 76ers have not "tanked to the top," nor has any other team; the 2025 NBA champion Oklahoma City Thunder obtained franchise player Shai Gilgeous-Alexander not by tanking but by shrewdly acquiring him via a trade with the L.A. Clippers--and in that same trade, the Thunder also acquired the draft pick that became Jalen Williams, their second best player. The Thunder then tanked to obtain more draft picks, but they acquired the two centerpieces of their championship team from one trade, not from tanking.

Near the end of the game, NBC ran a graphic comparing the NBA in 1990 with the NBA in 2026: in the 1990-91 season, NBA teams averaged 106.3 ppg and 7.1 three point field goal attempts per game, while in the 2025-26 season so far NBA teams are averaging 115.3 ppg and 37.0 three point field goal attempts per game. In 1990-91, the Denver Nuggets led the league with 12.9 three point field goal attempts per game, while in 2025-26 the Sacramento Kings rank last in the league with 30.1 three point field goal attempts per game. "Stat gurus" insist that NBA teams are optimizing possessions by jacking up so many three pointers, but there is no way to prove that to be true when every single team is jacking up three pointers; when every team jacks up dozens of three pointers per game then of course the championship team will be a team that jacks up dozens of three pointers per game--but high volume three point shooting is a high variance approach to the game, so it would be fascinating to see a team like the 1986-87 Showtime Lakers face any of the recent NBA championship teams. The 1987 Lakers averaged 117.8 ppg on .516 field goal shooting while attempting just 5.5 three point field goals per game. Would the Lakers' ability to relentlessly attack the paint wear down a modern team, or would a modern team's three point bombing shoot the Lakers out of the gym? I would pick the Lakers in such a matchup, and it would be fascinating if a modern NBA team had the courage to buck the trend of high volume three point shooting in favor of efficient shooting from all areas of the court.

Prior to the second game of the doubleheader, Isiah Thomas talked about the Spurs' sound organization (a marked contrast with how the 76ers have been run in recent years, though he did not say that), and he mentioned that when he visited Gregg Popovich he noticed that there was just one picture in the office: John Havlicek. Carlesimo said that he had not known in advance that Thomas would mention this, but that it brings to mind a story from when Carlesimo worked as an assistant coach for Popovich. Carlesimo recalled that Popovich was thrilled when Havlicek presented a trophy to the Spurs, and that is when Carlesimo learned that Havlicek was Popovich's favorite player. Carlesimo knew Havlicek, and he was able to arrange for Popovich to meet Havlicek.  

In the second game of the doubleheader, the Phoenix Suns defeated the Sacramento Kings, 114-103. The game telecast did not feature throwback broadcasters, but Grant Hill and Noah Eagle ably called the game while Storm, Carlesimo, and Thomas did the halftime show and the postgame show. During the game, NBC showed some highlights of Grant Hill playing for the Detroit Pistons in the 1990s when NBC broadcast his games--and then NBC showed a picture of Eagle as a child during the 1990s, reminding us how quickly time passes!

At the end of the telecast, Storm, Carlesimo, and Thomas talked frankly--and lovingly--about how much it meant to them to be back together on air again. As Thomas said, you never know when they will all be in the same place at the same time again, so this was a moment to cherish. 

I have seen wry social media comments prior to last night's telecast making fun of the people who suggest that NBA basketball was better back in the day; such comments argue that it would be odd that basketball is the only sport where basic evolution has not happened. I won't comment about other sports in this article, but I strongly feel that the NBA game was better in the 1980s, 1990s and early 2000s than it is now, and after watching a retro telecast it is evident that NBA telecasts--from the studio shows to the game broadcasters to the graphics (which were clearer and more readable on the retro telecast than on modern telecasts)--were better back in the day, too. It was refreshing to watch an NBA doubleheader devoid of screaming, hot takes, and general foolishness--and it was wonderful to listen to broadcasters who know and respect the history of the game, in marked contrast to uninformed and ungrateful commentators who disrespect the players who laid the foundation for the modern NBA: J.J. Redick is making millions of dollars per year now not because he is so intrinsically special, but because Bob Cousy and the other great NBA players from the league's early years laid the foundation for what has become a multi-billion dollar business in which even average players and average coaches become millionaires. Billy Martin once said that George Steinbrenner was born on third base but thought he hit a triple, a sentiment that applies to Redick and many others who now benefit from the hard work (and superior talent) of those who came before them.

Labels: ABA, Bob Costas, Doug Collins, Hannah Storm, Isiah Thomas, Jim Gray, Julius Erving, Kobe Bryant, Marv Albert, Mike Fratello, NBC, P.J. Carlesimo, Philadelphia 76ers, Phoenix Suns, Sacramento Kings, San Antonio Spurs

posted by David Friedman @ 11:18 AM

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Oklahoma City and San Antonio Roll to the NBA Cup Semifinals

The Oklahoma City Thunder jumped out to a 36-16 first quarter lead versus the Phoenix Suns before cruising to a 138-89 win in their NBA Cup quarterfinals game. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander led the way with game-high totals in points (28 on 11-15 field goal shooting) and assists (eight) but he had plenty of help: Chet Holmgren had 24 points on 9-13 field goal shooting plus a game-high eight rebounds, Jalen Williams contributed 15 points, five rebounds, and five assists, and the Thunder's bench players combined to outscore the Suns' starters, 50-41. The Thunder led 74-48 at halftime and 110-72 after the third quarter, so--as has often been the case this season--Gilgeous-Alexander did not play in the fourth quarter; he is averaging almost a point per minute this season while barely playing 33 mpg, so it is fair to wonder how much he could score if he played 40 mpg and his team needed him to score a lot in the fourth quarter. Dillon Brooks led the Suns with 16 points, but he shot just 4-16 from the field.

The Thunder shot .591 (52-88) from the field while holding the Suns to .393 field goal shooting (33-84) with 20 turnovers. The Suns were missing the injured Devin Booker, but he could have scored 30 points and the Thunder still would have won going away; more than a fourth of the NBA season is over and the Suns seem to be at least a solid team, but the way that the Thunder dismantled them looked like the Dream Team (and there is only one Dream Team) dominating outclassed squads in the 1992 Olympics.

The game's only mild drama or suspense happened at the 5:18 mark of the third quarter when Phoenix guard Grayson Allen elbowed Holmgren in the chest and shoved Holmgren to the ground. Holmgren and other Thunder players stood their ground but did not do anything crazy. The referees assessed a Flagrant Foul 2 to Allen, meaning that Allen was automatically ejected. No Thunder players received fouls or technical fouls on the play; that is a level of individual and collective self-discipline that is not seen often enough in the NBA and is foreign to Draymond Green, whose lack of self-discipline and inability to control his anger is embarrassing for him, his team, and the league. The Thunder are focused on playing unselfish, winning basketball without individual agendas, drama, or nonsense, and that is very refreshing to see in a league that has too many individual agendas and too much drama/nonsense.

The Thunder matched the best 25 game start--24-1--in NBA history. Much like the only two teams in NBA history that won at least 70 regular season games--the 1995-96 Chicago Bulls (72-10) and the 2015-16 Golden State Warriors (73-9)--the Thunder bring a competitive attitude to every game. The Thunder do not make excuses regarding injuries or playing back to back games or anything else. It is too soon to rank them among the greatest teams of all-time, but it is not too soon to wonder how high they may eventually rank and what kinds of records they may set if they are blessed with reasonable health.

In the second NBA Cup Western Conference quarterfinals matchup, the L.A. Lakers enjoyed homecourt advantage versus the San Antonio Spurs and quickly took a 13-7 first quarter lead, but by the end of the first quarter the Spurs were up 39-30. The Spurs never trailed the rest of the way, and they enjoyed a double digit advantage for the entire second half, feasting on the Lakers' slow-footed, disinterested defense; the Lakers look like the kind of all-offense, no-defense team that loses in the first round of the playoffs, which is the fate that I predicted for them in my Western Conference Preview. Stephon Castle led the Spurs in scoring (30 points), rebounding (10), and assists (six). De'Aaron Fox added 20 points. Luka Doncic poured in a game-high 35 points for the Lakers while dishing for a game-high tying eight assists. Marcus Smart provided a spark off of the bench with 26 points on 9-16 field goal shooting, including 8-14 from beyond the arc. Austin Reaves had a quiet game (15 points, eight rebounds, seven assists) by the lofty standards that he has set for himself so far this season.

LeBron James added 19 points, a game-high 15 rebounds, and a game-high tying eight assists, but his -16 plus/minus number--second worst on the team behind only Jake LaRavia's -25 in just nine minutes of (in)action--indicates how much the Lakers hemorrhaged points on defense when he was in the game. It is remarkable how statistically productive James is at 40 (soon to be 41) years old, but from the standpoint of winning a championship it is fair to ask if he is helping or hurting the Lakers; the Lakers are paying him nearly $50 million per year, and they feel compelled to use a roster spot on his son Bronny, who is averaging 2.0 ppg on .323 field goal shooting this season after averaging 2.3 ppg on .313 field goal shooting as a rookie. 

Doncic is the Lakers' best player, and the roster should be built around him, which means adding bigs who can defend, rebound, and roll to the hoop, and adding wing players who can defend. Even if James accepts being the second option behind Doncic--or possibly even the third option behind Reaves, who entered the game averaging 28.4 ppg on .509 field goal shooting--the Lakers' ability to reshape the roster will be greatly limited as long as they are paying James a max contract while also filling a roster spot with his son, who shows no signs of developing into a rotation-level player. 

In contrast, the Spurs look like a team on the rise; they have a nice mixture of veterans and young players, and they have markedly improved at both ends of the court, displaying better shot selection and more defensive focus than they did last season.

Yes, I realize that the Lakers entered this game with the second best record in the Western Conference, but the eye test reveals that they are a poor defensive team that has stacked up wins against a soft schedule; as the schedule gets tougher, they will drop in the standings. 

In my December 3 NBA Cup article, I picked the Thunder to beat the Suns and I picked the Spurs to beat the Lakers "in a close, high scoring game." I was right about both outcomes, but I did not expect the Spurs to rout the Lakers, particularly without the services of Victor Wembanyama, who is the team's leading scorer (26.2 ppg), rebounder (12.9 rpg), and shot blocker (3.6 bpg); the Spurs' ability to win on the road without Wembanyama speaks volumes about their growth, particularly considering that they had a 14-27 road record last season.

Oklahoma City and San Antonio will play on Saturday December 13 in Las Vegas to earn the right to represent the Western Conference in the NBA Cup Championship Game and face the winner of Saturday's other semifinals matchup featuring New York versus Orlando, the teams that won the NBA Cup Eastern Conference quarterfinals games on Tuesday.  

Labels: Chet Holmgren, De'Aaron Fox, L.A. Lakers, Oklahoma City Thunder, Phoenix Suns, San Antonio Spurs, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Stephon Castle

posted by David Friedman @ 2:33 AM

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Assessing Chris Paul's Legacy and Leadership

The L.A. Clippers parted ways with 40 year old Chris Paul in an unusual but in retrospect not surprising middle of the night move, informing Paul that his services are no longer desired. The Clippers can waive Paul and eat his $3.6 million salary, agree to a buyout, or wait until December 15 to trade him (due to the NBA's arcane salary cap rules), but until those details are decided the team has sent him home in a move that strongly suggests that he was not merely unproductive (2.9 ppg on .321 field goal shooting in 16 games this season) but also a toxic locker room presence; there is no other reason to deal so harshly and abruptly with an established, veteran player, let alone one who will deservedly be a first ballot Hall of Famer. Paul recently announced that he planned to retire after this season, so this sudden end--or at least interruption--of his farewell tour brings to mind the scene in "Forget Paris" when Kareem Abdul-Jabbar told Billy Crystal (who played an NBA referee in the movie) that he can't eject him because he is on his farewell tour, and Crystal snarled, "Let me be the first to say, 'Farewell!'"

In his prime, Chris Paul was an elite playmaker, a deadly midrange shooter, and a feisty, crafty defensive player. He earned his selection to the NBA's 75th Anniversary Team with an impressive resume that includes four All-NBA First Team selections (2008, 2012-14), and five All-Defensive First Team selections (2012-16). He led the NBA in steals six times (2008-09, 2011-14), and he ranks second all-time in total regular season steals (2728). Paul led the NBA in assists five times (2008-09, 2014-15, 2022), and he ranks second all-time in total regular season assists (12,552).

However, no history of NBA stat padding is complete without an extensive chapter on Chris Paul's inflated assist totals, and it is shameful that the NBA selectively corrects some statistical errors (including taking away bogus triple doubles from LeBron James in 2006, 2009 and 2014) while letting other statistical errors remain in the record books (including Paul's inflated assist totals). These inflated numbers matter and they affect the legacies of multiple players because Paul is credited with breaking many assist records in the regular season and the playoffs.

Proving that Paul's assist totals are inflated does not mean that he was not a great passer; two things can be true at the same time: Paul was a great passer, and Paul's assist numbers are inflated.

Paul is often lavishly praised as a great leader. The way that the Clippers jettisoned Paul is just the latest piece of evidence that Paul's leadership has been vastly overrated by media members who are either gullible or who push preferred narratives regardless of what the facts show. 

In Notes About the 2020 Christmas Day Quintupleheader, I compared the leadership styles of Chris Paul, LeBron James, and Giannis Antetokounmpo: 

Perceptions and descriptions of leadership are interesting. Giannis Antetokounmpo is a great leader, regardless of whether or not media members have figured that out yet.

Charles Barkley so often says that Chris Paul is the best leader in the NBA that this has become a running joke during TNT's telecasts. LeBron James is also often lauded as a great leader. These characterizations are puzzling. Paul has hopped from team to team, and he is often at odds with his teammates and/or coaches. Paul's vaunted leadership has not resulted in a single NBA Finals appearance, let alone a championship. When someone is called a great leader but his teams have not accomplished much it is fair and logical to ask: "Where exactly is this great leader leading his followers?" Paul is a great but undersized point guard. He demands a lot from those around him, which can be a good thing at times, but his leadership has not had the same impact or generated the same results as many other better leaders have achieved during his tenure in the NBA. 

James is on the short list of candidates for the title of greatest basketball player of all-time--but neither his greatness as a player nor his charitable endeavors off of the court prove that he is a great basketball leader. LeBron James' failures as a leader are well-documented, although many media members prefer to downplay these facts.

Giannis Antetokounmpo is a better leader than LeBron James or Chris Paul. Antetokounmpo works hard, he encourages his teammates, and he is not looking for shortcuts. Consider his response to questions about why he re-signed with Milwaukee now as oppose to waiting and testing free agency. Antetokounmpo said that if he had delayed his decision then this would have put tremendous pressure and scrutiny on his teammates, who would have had to constantly worry about and talk about whether or not he would stay. Antetokounmpo said that if he had waited then he would have harmed his teammates and squandered a season during the prime of his career when he and his teammates have a chance to reach their ultimate goal: winning an NBA title.

It is impossible to imagine LeBron James or Chris Paul answering that question that way, or conducting themselves in that way. James has won four championships and four Finals MVPs; no one can question his greatness as a player, not can anyone question his ability to raise a team's level--but James has also presided over the implosion of multiple teams, and he wasted prime years during his first stint in Cleveland: just imagine what might have happened if he had fully committed to the Cavaliers franchise and helped to build the program as opposed to always having one foot out the door before eventually fleeing to Miami. 

In contrast, Antetokounmpo has a finely honed sense of urgency and sense of the moment; every game is precious, every season is precious, and you cannot afford to waste games or seasons because you think that you are heading toward greener pastures. Antetokounmpo gets it. James has been successful despite lacking those qualities at times, not because he consistently displays those qualities. In other words, James is so talented that he and his teams are sometimes able to overcome his flawed leadership style.

Isiah Thomas joined an awful team and helped to build a two-time champion. Michael Jordan joined an awful team and helped to build a dynasty. Antetokounmpo is a throwback to that kind of wonderful old school mentality.

A few months after I wrote those words, Antetokounmpo led the Bucks to their first NBA title since 1971, beating Paul's Phoenix Suns in the NBA Finals. Antetokounmpo won a championship without whining about his teammates or coach, and without forming (or jumping to) a super team. Antetokounmpo has been a great leader throughout his 13 seasons in Milwaukee, and even if he finishes his career with another team that will not diminish what he did in and for Milwaukee. After Paul scored a playoff career-high tying 41 points to lift the Suns into the 2021 NBA Finals, I explained why that one great performance does not change his overall resume:

Paul is a great player, but for some reason he gets more credit for his (limited) playoff success and less blame for his (extensive) playoff failure than other great players do. It is obvious and indisputable that Paul authored a tremendous performance in game six, but that is part of a larger legacy, and does not define his career--particularly if this playoff run does not result in a title. Many media members have a strange way of quantifying leadership. If our mission is to go to point Z, and our leader only takes us to point M, then it is difficult to rationally argue that our leader is a better leader than someone who led his team to point Z five times--or, to put it more bluntly, when I think about the best leaders in the NBA in the post-Jordan era, I think about Kobe Bryant, Tim Duncan, and LeBron James. Each of those guys has/had a different leadership style, but each played a major role in multiple championship runs; love them or hate them, they led their teams to point Z. Chris Paul is in his 16th season, and this will be his first NBA Finals appearance. You may retort that Paul has not always had the best supporting cast around him, but the reality is that he has had a lot of talent around him in multiple organizations while spending most of his career losing in the second round or earlier; either his leadership has been overrated, or leadership itself does not matter as much as raw talent. I am not saying that Paul is not a good leader, but the popular notion that he is the best leader in the NBA is not supported by the most important evidence: sustained team performance at an elite level.

It may seem like I contradicted myself about James' leadership abilities in those two passages, so I should clarify that I don't think that James is as great a leader as many people say that he is, but I think that he is a better leader than Paul and I think that--despite his documented leadership failures at times--his leadership played a role in championship runs, which contrasts with Paul's leadership style that often led to internal problems on his teams. 

Bob Cousy 16-8 (won six NBA championships)

Oscar Robertson 8-9 (won one NBA championship)

Jerry West 16-12 (won one NBA championship)

Walt Frazier 11-6 (won two NBA championships)

Magic Johnson 32-8 (won five NBA championships)

Isiah Thomas 16-7 (won two NBA championships)

John Stockton 17-19 

Jason Kidd 16-16 (won one NBA championship) 

Steve Nash 11-12

Allen Iverson 6-8 

Tony Parker 30-12 (won four NBA championships) 

Russell Westbrook 12-13

Derrick Rose 4-7 

Stephen Curry 24-6 (won four NBA championships)

Kyrie Irving 15-6 (won one NBA championship)    

Contextual factors beyond any one player's control affect team results, but there is little evidence that Paul is a great leader and a lot of evidence that teams he led imploded with him at the helm. For example, in the 2022 playoffs, Paul's Phoenix Suns lost game seven in the second round to the Dallas Mavericks, 123-90. Here is how I described the massacre: 

Stunning. Unprecedented. Humiliating.

I am disinclined to use hyberbole, but I am at a loss to describe what the Dallas Mavericks did to the 64-18 Phoenix Suns in Phoenix in a 123-90 game seven rout. By the time Chris Paul--supposedly the best leader in the NBA--made his first field goal his Suns trailed by 40; the Suns were so far behind they couldn't see the Mavericks with a telescope, a time machine, or a fortune teller. 

 I added the following: 

Am I belaboring the point? Am I making too much of one game? If you think so, then consider how much grief Kobe Bryant was given about his supposedly bad performance in the 2004 NBA Finals, when his injury-riddled Lakers lost 4-1 to the Detroit Pistons. Now, imagine that Bryant--whether as a 17 year old, a 27 year old, or a 37 year old--went into the playoffs leading a 64 win team and then lost by 33 points at home while the other team's star outscored his entire team for more than a half, and while Bryant put up a second quarter boxscore consisting of one point, no rebounds, no assists, no steals, and no blocked shots.

What do you suppose might have been said about Bryant after such a game? 

I say that players should be evaluated by the same standards. A player's legacy is not defined by one game, but by his overall resume. When I look at Bryant, I see a 5-2 Finals record, I see his team generally winning as the favorite and generally being competitive as the underdog. I see him putting up tremendous individual numbers on a consistent basis. For those reasons (and more), I put him in my pro basketball Pantheon.

When I look at Chris Paul, I see no championships despite playing for several excellent teams. I see his team losing more than once as the favorite. I see that no player in NBA history has blown more 2-0 playoff leads than Chris Paul, whose teams have squandered such an advantage five times: 2008 versus the Spurs, 2013 versus the Grizzlies, 2016 versus the Trail Blazers, 2021 versus the Bucks, and now 2022 versus the Mavericks. Paul's Clippers also blew a 3-1 lead versus the Houston Rockets in 2015; the Clippers split the first two games when Paul was out with an injury, but then after his return in game three they eventually lost three straight games. Paul is now 3-5 in game seven showdowns. 

In light of that evidence, I try to understand why "stat gurus" and media members pump up Paul to be more than he is. 

The harsh reality is that there is nowhere to hide in the playoffs. Players can inflate and manipulate their numbers to some extent in the regular season, and "stat gurus" team up with media members to craft agenda-based narratives advocating that those players receive various awards--but then the playoffs arrive, and every year we see Harden go on his "concert tour" and Paul cough up so many playoff leads his voice should sound like General Grievous in "Star Wars."

I've been saying this for well over a decade, but maybe people will pay attention now (I doubt it, but I'll keep trying anyway): Paul is an undersized player who consistently wears down and/or gets injured in the playoffs. He is a great player who has a lot of heart, but undersized players simply cannot be as valuable as players who are 6-6 and bigger who have comparable skills (let alone bigger players who also have superior skills). There is one player 6-3 or under in my pro basketball Pantheon: Jerry West, who would give the business to any other similarly-sized player in pro basketball history. Isiah Thomas did not quite reach Pantheon-level, but he led Detroit to back to back titles without having a teammate who made the NBA's 50th Anniversary Team, and he had a winning career record head to head against Bird, Magic, and Jordan. People who compare Paul favorably with Thomas have absolutely no idea how great Thomas was, and how durable he was until the very end of his career...

Luka Doncic right now has still not reached his peak, but as a versatile 6-6, 240 pound multi-position threat he is already better than Chris Paul ever was or ever could be. That is not a knock on Paul so much as it is a statement of basketball reality: the great 6-6 player is better than the great 6-0 player every time, and even more so in game seven.  

That game seven was not an isolated debacle. As mentioned above, Paul's teams have a history of playoff self-destruction:  

Paul's teams have blown five 2-0 series leads, his Clippers squandered a 3-1 lead versus the Rockets in 2015, his game seven record is 3-5, and--as noted above--his Suns disappeared in game seven at home versus Dallas last year. Every time Paul loses, excuses proliferate like weeds in an unmaintained yard.  

Paul's poor leadership is revealed in other ways. Without any evidence supporting his assertions, Paul has repeatedly trashed the public reputation of Scott Foster, who consistently grades as one of the NBA's top referees, a topic that I discussed in Blaming A Referee for Losing After Posting a "Triple Single" is Not Great Leadership:

Paul is often called the best leader in the NBA, and he is the current President of the NBA Players Association. Paul is attacking the credibility of an employer who pays him millions of dollars per year as part of a multi-billion dollar business that is based in no small part on the credibility of the competition between teams; without that credibility, the NBA is not in the sports business but rather in show business (maybe that business model would still work--it has worked for pro wrestling for decades--but that has never been the NBA's business model, and fans of pure basketball would be repulsed if the outcomes of games were proved to be predetermined)...

Great leaders do not attack the credibility of the business that feeds their families. Great leaders do not insist on playing if their level of play is harming the team.

The media narratives about players such as Chris Paul, Russell Westbrook, Stephen Curry, and others are fascinating to observe. Chris Paul is supposedly a great leader even after he posts a "triple single" with an awful plus/minus number while "leading" his favored team to a blowout loss. 

Russell Westbrook is supposedly a terrible leader even though he helped turn around the season of a not particularly talented team that was devastated by COVID-19 and various injuries. Yesterday, after Westbrook--who was a game-time decision due to an ankle injury--posted 26 points, 12 rebounds, and 10 assists (team-high numbers in all three categories) in Washington's 132-103 game three loss to Philadelphia at least one commentator called this an "empty" triple double. You can be sure that if Westbrook put up Chris Paul-like numbers of seven points, six assists, and five rebounds then that same commentator would have attacked Westbrook for quitting. Westbrook had as many rebounds in that game as Paul has in three games versus the Lakers! Westbrook's plus/minus number (-15) was better than the plus/minus number of every Washington starter except for Alex Len, whose plus/minus number was -14 in just 11 minutes. The Wizards are the eighth seeded team playing the number one seeded team, but Westbrook had a great game while playing hurt against a superior team. Paul is on course to lead his second seeded team to defeat while playing terribly. Who is the better player and better leader? This is not just about one season or three playoff games; the numbers and the true narrative (not the media's fictional narrative) are consistent throughout both players' careers. Westbrook was an All-NBA Team level performer for four teams that reached the Western Conference Finals, including one team that made it to the NBA Finals. He is currently tied for third on the all-time playoff list with 11 triple doubles (matching Jason Kidd, and trailing only Magic Johnson's 30 and LeBron James' 28). It would be fascinating to look up the media coverage of other playoff triple doubles to see how many have been described as "empty." Granted, the same commentator who called Westbrook's triple double "empty" also called Jimmy Butler's triple double "empty"--but Butler posted 12 points on 4-15 field goal shooting with 10 rebounds, 10 assists, and a -18 plus/minus number in a 17 point loss as his sixth seeded Heat were swept by the third seeded Bucks to become one of the few Conference champions ever swept in the next year's playoffs. There is no comparison between how Butler played and how Westbrook played; lumping those two performances together is intellectually lazy, at best.

Stephen Curry is lauded as a top three MVP candidate for leading his team to "play out" (instead of "play in") to the playoffs despite having two opportunities to win one game to qualify for the playoffs. Damian Lillard has recently pointed out that last season his own MVP candidacy was dismissed because of his team's low playoff seeding, and Lillard said that to be consistent the media should not tout Curry as this season's MVP. My consistent take is that Lillard was not a legit MVP candidate last season, nor is Curry a legit MVP candidate this season. I agree with Lillard that the media's MVP narratives are not consistent or fair.

Paul's obsession with bashing Foster betrays a sense of entitlement that the NBA never put in check:

Paul acts like he feels entitled to say whatever he wants to say and act however he wants to act without facing any consequences. He refuses to take responsibility for his actions, and instead casts aspersions on Foster.

Foster is the easy target here. As the saying goes, the fans don't buy tickets to see the referees but to see star players. However, based on what we saw and heard there was nothing unusual about the ejection. If Paul truly believes that Foster is biased against him, then why did Paul keep talking after getting a technical foul? It must be emphasized that Foster walked away after issuing the first technical foul; this is not Jake O'Donnell versus Clyde Drexler or Hue Hollins versus Scottie Pippen/the Chicago Bulls, instances when officiating bias was an obvious pattern. O'Donnell's grudges against multiple players led to him losing his job despite grading out highly, while Hollins' bias was so obvious that his name was the first one that came to many people's minds when the story first broke about an unnamed referee (who later turned out to be Tim Donaghy) intentionally making wrong calls.

Paul has publicly created a narrative that Foster has a grudge against him without providing any proof, knowing full well that he is immune from consequences because Foster will not be permitted by the NBA to publicly respond. Why should media members or fans believe Paul? Paul has proven to be both a cheap shot artist and a whiner throughout his career, and there are many players around the league who have feuded with him, including both teammates and opponents. I am not aware of a single other player accusing Foster of bias, and Foster consistently grades out as a top referee. I watch a lot of NBA games, and while my focus is much more on the players and the coaches than the referees I have never felt that Foster is incompetent or biased. 

It has become popular to suggest that the NBA should never assign Foster to officiate a game involving Paul's team. That is nonsense. If Foster grades out well enough to officiate the NBA Finals and Paul is fortunate enough to be carried to the NBA Finals by Stephen Curry then how can the league take that assignment away from Foster? No, the answer here is simple: if there is objective evidence that Foster is nursing a grudge that prevents him from officiating Paul in an unbiased manner then the NBA should fire Foster--and if there is no evidence of that, then the NBA should fine Paul for his comments, and make it clear that if he makes additional comments questioning the integrity of the officiating then he will be suspended. That is how former Commissioner David Stern would have quashed this nonsense that current Commissioner Adam Silver has allowed to fester for several years. If Paul is correct that the NBA organized a meeting with Paul, Foster, and others then the outcome of that meeting should have been an understanding that Paul's job is to play, Foster's job is to officiate objectively, and that if this ever becomes a public issue again then the person at fault is going to be disciplined by the league. Instead, Silver is letting one of these guys--and my strong suspicion is that the culprit is Paul--make a mockery of the league.

It is fascinating and revealing to observe so many media members covering the release of a 40 year old player averaging 2.9 ppg as if the move is an inexplicable decision and a disrespectful action. Chris Paul is an old, poor performing player on a losing team, and he reportedly is not on speaking terms with coach Ty Lue. Lue is a championship-winning coach, and he does not need advice or so-called "leadership" from a washed up 40 year old player who has never won a championship.

Leadership is about results, which means uplifting those around you individually and collectively. Leadership is about setting an example of personal accountability. Leadership is not about empty slogans or about narratives unsupported by facts. In his prime, Chris Paul was a talented and hard-working player, and he accomplished a lot for an undersized player--but the objective evidence demonstrates that he was not the leader that so many people hyped him to be. The value that he provided during his peak seasons was that he was a great passer, an excellent midrange shooter, and a gritty defensive player; he no longer provides great passing, shooting, or defense, and thus the Clippers parted ways with Paul precisely because Paul provides no value to a team beyond on court contributions. If Paul were a great leader, then the Clippers would keep him around to lead, much like the Miami Heat kept Udonis Haslem around long after he was no longer a productive player.

Labels: Chris Paul, Giannis Antetokounmpo, Kobe Bryant, L.A. Clippers, LeBron James, Phoenix Suns, Ty Lue

posted by David Friedman @ 12:12 PM

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Thunder Dominate NBA Cup Play--and Everything Else

The Oklahoma City Thunder lost to the Milwaukee Bucks in the 2024 NBA Cup Championship Game, but the Thunder have rolled since then, setting the NBA's single season point differential record (12.9 ppg) while going 68-14 before defeating the Indiana Pacers in the 2025 NBA Finals. The Thunder currently have a league-leading 21-1 record with an incredible 15.3 ppg point differential. Jalen Williams, the Thunder's second best player behind Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, has appeared in just three of the Thunder's 22 games, and other key Thunder players--including Lu Dort, Alex Caruso, and Aaron Wiggins--have missed significant time as well.

The Thunder seem to be well on their way to not only winning 70-plus regular season games but also becoming the first repeat champion since the 2018 Golden State Warriors--but before the NBA playoffs, the basketball gods (also known as NBA Commissioner Adam Silver) have placed the NBA Cup. The Thunder are dominating the NBA Cup even more decisively than they are dominating the regular season overall; they went 4-0 in NBA Cup group play with an 18.8 ppg point differential, finishing first in West Group A to set up a quarterfinal game versus the Phoenix Suns on December 10. The winner of that game will face the winner of the December 10 game featuring the L.A. Lakers and the San Antonio Spurs. The Lakers have the second best overall record in the Western Conference (15-5), followed by the Houston Rockets (13-5), San Antonio Spurs (14-6), and Denver Nuggets (14-6). The Suns are seventh with a 13-9 record. 

The Thunder beat the Suns 123-119 on November 28 as Williams made his season debut with 11 points on 3-12 field goal shooting. The Suns have played surprisingly well this season, but Williams has looked better in each game that he has played so far and the Thunder's victory margin has increased in each of those games, so the Thunder should beat the Suns to advance to the semifinals. 

Only four of the Lakers' 15 wins are against teams that currently have winning records, so it will be interesting to see how the Lakers fare against tougher competition. The Lakers beat the Spurs 118-116 on November 5, but the Lakers have given up at least 118 points in four of their past five games and I expect the Spurs to win a close, high scoring game to earn a matchup with the Thunder.

The Thunder have yet to play the Spurs this season, but if they play in the semifinals I predict that the Thunder will win by at least 10 points.

In the Eastern Conference, the Orlando Magic and Toronto Raptors each went 4-0 in NBA Cup group play but the Magic earned the top seed because they had a better NBA Cup point differential (+64 compared to +55)--and they achieved that primarily by drilling the Philadelphia 76ers 144-103 on November 25. The Detroit Pistons have the best record (17-4) in the Eastern Conference and the second best record in the league behind the Thunder, but they went 2-2 in NBA Cup group play and failed to advance to the quarterfinals. The Cleveland Cavaliers had the Eastern Conference's best record last season (64-18) but they are just 13-9 this season, including 2-2 in NBA Cup group play.

The Magic are currently fifth overall in the Eastern Conference with a 13-8 record, and they will face the Miami Heat (14-7 overall, 3-1 in NBA Cup group play) in the NBA Cup quarterfinals on December 9. Orlando beat Miami 125-121 on October 22 in the season opener for both teams. The Magic lost their next four games, but they have won their last three games and six of their last seven; the Heat have also played very well recently, winning seven of their last eight games. I expect Orlando to beat Miami in a close game to advance to the NBA Cup semifinals. The other Eastern Conference quarterfinals matchup features Toronto versus the New York Knicks (13-7 overall, 3-1 in NBA Cup group play). The 15-7 Raptors are one of the league's early season surprises, but they have feasted on a weak schedule loaded with sub-.500 teams, and they lost to the Knicks 116-94 on November 30. I predict that the Knicks will beat the Raptors by double digits.

The Magic have already beaten the Knicks twice this season (124-107 on November 12, and 133-121 on November 22), and if they face each other in the semifinals I expect the Magic to win again.

The Thunder have not played the Magic this season, but if they meet in the NBA Cup Championship Game then I expect the Thunder to win.

The NBA Cup seems to be here to stay, so anyone covering the NBA is obligated to discuss it, but I still consider it to be a flawed concept, and in 2023 I pointed out the NBA Cup's two major drawbacks:

There are at least two drawbacks with the current NBA Cup format: (1) the use of point differential as the first tiebreaker in Group Play resulted in farcical situations during which teams ran up the score, and (2) there will be quirky scheduling this week for the teams that did not qualify for knockout round play. Regarding the first drawback, I am all for players and teams playing hard from opening tip to final buzzer, but intentionally running up the score in the waning moments of a blowout looks silly and renders those individual and team statistics meaningless: how many more points would the great teams and players of the past have scored if teams ran up the score instead of putting in the reserves? Regarding the second drawback, if a fan wants to see a particular visiting player or team how is he supposed to plan in advance for a week in which the schedule is dotted with "TBD"?  

The NBA has done nothing to fix either drawback, so we continue to see inflated statistics from blowout games along with a schedule that is frustrating and confounding for fans who are trying to make plans to see specific players or teams. 

The long term historical significance of the NBA Cup is unclear, but thus far NBA Cup success has not yet consistently translated to NBA playoff success. The L.A. Lakers defeated the Indiana Pacers in the 2023 NBA Cup Championship Game, but the Lakers finished the season as the eighth seeded team in the Western Conference before losing 4-1 to the Denver Nuggets in the first round. The Pacers had the same record as the Lakers (47-35) but finished sixth in the weaker Eastern Conference and then advanced to the Eastern Conference Finals before being swept by the Boston Celtics, who went on to capture the NBA title. The Milwaukee Bucks finished fifth in the Eastern Conference and lost in the first round of the 2025 playoffs after winning the 2024 NBA Cup. So far, the 2024-25 Thunder are the only NBA Cup Championship Game participant that has reached the NBA Finals.

Labels: L.A. Lakers, Miami Heat, New York Knicks, Oklahoma City Thunder, Orlando Magic, Phoenix Suns, San Antonio Spurs, Toronto Raptors

posted by David Friedman @ 5:03 PM

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