Second Round is Upset City!
Three of the four second round series have begun, and the underdog won game one in all three series. Casual fans may not make much of this, but prior to the start of this year's playoffs game one winners went on to win the series 77.1% of the time since 1983-84. In the first round of this year's playoffs, the game one winner went on to win all eight series.
The second round upsets began on Sunday with the Indiana Pacers defeating the Cleveland Cavaliers, 121-112. Cleveland's All-Star point guard Darius Garland missed his third straight game due to injury, and two other Cavaliers suffered injuries during game one that rendered them doubtful for game two: 2025 Defensive Player of the Year/2025 All-Star Evan Mobley sprained his ankle, and key reserve De'Andre Hunter dislocated his right thumb. The Cavaliers shot just 9-38 (.237) from three point range in game one while allowing Indiana to shoot 19-36 (.528) from beyond the arc. Donovan Mitchell scored a game-high 33 points but he shot just 13-30 from the field; high volume, low efficiency shooting by Mitchell has not been Cleveland's formula for success this season, as the Cavaliers have thrived with a balanced offensive attack complemented by an excellent defense anchored by Mobley. Andrew Nembhard (23 points) and Tyrese Haliburton (22 points, game-high 13 assists) led the way for Indiana's high octane offense.
Falling into an 0-2 hole before heading to Indiana for games three and four would be a nightmare scenario for a Cleveland team that led the Eastern Conference standings from wire to wire this season. Mobley scored 20 points on 9-13 field goal shooting while grabbing a team-high 10 rebounds, so if he is limited or unable to play that will be a major blow for Cleveland. Hunter added 11 points on 4-7 field goal shooting in 30 minutes off of the bench.
Last night's games featured two more upsets. Like the Cleveland-Indiana series, health could be a factor in the Boston-New York series, as the Celtics are battered and bruised: Jrue Holiday just returned after missing time with a hamstring injury, Jaylen Brown is battling a knee injury, and the oft-injured Kristaps Porzingis played 13 scoreless first half minutes versus New York before missing the second half due to illness/injury. In game one versus Boston, New York--who went 0-4 versus the Boston Celtics this season--stormed back from a 75-55 deficit with 5:47 remaining in the third quarter to take a 97-91 lead on a Jalen Brunson three pointer at the 3:28 mark of the fourth quarter. Derrick White's three pointer put Boston on top 98-97 with 2:18 remaining in regulation before OG Anunoby's three pointer gave New York a 100-98 lead. Jrue Holiday's layup tied the score, and Brunson's game-winning layup attempt rolled in and out before Jayson Tatum missed a turnaround shot at the buzzer. The Knicks never trailed in overtime as it took the Celtics nearly three minutes to score.
The biggest story from New York's 108-105 win is not that Brunson and Anunoby (29 points each) outscored Tatum and Jaylen Brown (23 points each) but rather that the Celtics set a playoff record by missing 45 three point shots. The Celtics shot just 15-60 (.250) from three point range, and in the third quarter they fired 19 of their 20 field goal attempts from beyond the arc while getting outscored 30-23. High volume three point shooting is a high variance strategy that can result in dire outcomes, perhaps most notoriously when the Houston Rockets missed 27 straight three pointers in a game seven loss to the Golden State Warriors in 2018. The Celtics won the NBA title last season because they supported their high volume three point shooting with great defense and with an offense that was capable of scoring from all areas of the court when necessary--but in game one versus the Knicks, the Celtics abandoned any semblance of offensive balance in favor of jacking up three pointers without regard to time, score, or matchups. The absence of Porzingis' size hurt the Celtics at both ends of the court, but there is no reason for versatile players like Tatum and Brown to combine to launch 25 three point field goal attempts while only shooting 18 times from inside the arc. This game is a microcosm of the problem with elevating "advanced basketball statistics" above all other considerations; yes, a three point shot is worth more than a two point shot, but that extra point does not mean that it makes sense to keep firing three pointers when other quality shots are available, let alone when doing so results in not drawing fouls, not getting the opposing team into the bonus/foul trouble, and losing control of the tempo of the game. The Celtics can still win this series, but only if they get their minds right along with getting their bodies as healthy as possible.
The 68-14 Oklahoma City Thunder broke the all-time regular season record for point differential, and could be viewed as one of the greatest single season teams ever if they cap off this campaign by winning a title--but if they do not go all the way then they will be relegated into the group of great regular season teams that fell short in the playoffs, including the 2015-16 Golden State Warriors (73-9, lost to Cleveland in the NBA Finals), the 1972-73 Boston Celtics (68-14, lost to New York in the Eastern Conference Finals), the 2006-07 Dallas Mavericks (67-15, lost to Golden State in the first round), the 2015-16 San Antonio Spurs (67-15, lost to the Oklahoma City Thunder in the second round), and the 2008-09 Cleveland Cavaliers (66-16, lost to the Orlando Magic in the Eastern Conference Finals).
The Thunder led the Denver Nuggets 82-68 with 4:36 remaining in the third quarter, but the Nuggets outscored the Thunder 53-37 the rest of the way to seize homecourt advantage. Nikola Jokic led both teams in scoring (42 points) and rebounding (22 rebounds) while dishing for six assists; the only blemish on his stat line were the game-high seven turnovers. Aaron Gordon had 22 points, 14 rebounds, and the game-winning three point shot with 3.6 seconds remaining. Jamal Murray added 21 points, six rebounds, and six assists. Russell Westbrook scored 18 points off of the bench, and he made the assist pass to Gordon for the final shot. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander played very well (33 points, 10 rebounds, eight assists), and he battled Jokic almost shot for shot in the fourth quarter, with Jokic logging 18 points in the final stanza while Gilgeous-Alexander answered with 13 points.
The Thunder won the turnover battle by forcing 18 while coughing up just 11, but the Nuggets destroyed them 63-43 on the boards. The Nuggets' advantages in second chance points (27-21) and points in the paint (54-46) loomed large in this tightly contested game. The Thunder used 10 players--nine of whom played at least 13 minutes--while the Nuggets used just eight players (seven of whom played at least 13 minutes), so the impact of fatigue and depth may not be felt until later in this series.
It seems improbable that all three underdogs will win these series but--based on how well game one winners have done historically--the possibility of one or even two underdogs advancing should not be dismissed.
Labels: Boston Celtics, Cleveland Cavaliers, Denver Nuggets, Indiana Pacers, New York Knicks, Oklahoma City Thunder
posted by David Friedman @ 3:21 PM
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