Reexamining Cleveland's Offseason Moves
After winning an NBA-best 66 games last season but falling short in the Eastern Conference Finals versus the Orlando Magic, the Cleveland Cavaliers fortified their already deep roster by adding Shaquille O'Neal, Anthony Parker and Jamario Moon to replace Ben Wallace, Sasha Pavlovic and Wally Szczerbiak. Cleveland fans fretted a bit when the Cavs started slowly this season and critics have carped about O'Neal's career-low per game averages but the Cavs are once again on pace to post 60-plus wins and they are right behind the Boston Celtics in the race for the top spot in the Eastern Conference.My newest CavsNews article compares the production of Cleveland's three offseason acquisitions with the production of the players that the Cavs discarded (6/19/15 edit: the link to CavsNews.com no longer works, so I have posted the original article below):
In my previous Cavs News article
I suggested that Cleveland’s
two game losing streak was not a cause for major concern and that it would be
much more significant to see how the Cavs performed during the next nine games,
six of which would be played on the road. The Cavs have now won five games in a
row; these victories may not have been artistic and the Cavs surely face a
tough test with four road games in six days—culminating with a Christmas Day
visit to L.A. to play the defending Champion L.A. Lakers—but despite a slow
start, some inconsistent performances and the ongoing Delonte West saga the
20-7 Cavs now own the fourth best record in the NBA and they only trail the
Boston Celtics by one game for the top spot in the Eastern Conference.
There is no
denying the fact that the Cavs are still figuring out how to best utilize
offseason acquisitions Shaquille O’Neal, Anthony Parker and Jamario Moon but it
is clear that the Cavs upgraded their overall talent level and improved their
chances of beating teams like the Celtics and Orlando Magic in a seven game
playoff series. Although the agate type listing NBA transactions tells a
slightly more complicated tale, essentially the Cavs swapped Ben Wallace, Sasha
Pavlovic and Wally Szczerbiak for O’Neal, Parker and Moon. More than a fourth
of the way into the 2009-10 season it is interesting to compare how those
players are performing.
Wallace is
averaging 4.1 ppg and 9.8 rpg in 26 games for Detroit. He has started every game for the
Pistons. Wallace’s per minute productivity this season is very similar to how
he performed last year for Cleveland,
with two main differences: he is maintaining that effectiveness despite logging
nearly seven more mpg and he has been much more active on the offensive boards.
Wallace played very solidly for Cleveland
when he was healthy but he had trouble staying healthy during his brief tenure
as a Cav; this season, so far, he has been healthy.
Pavlovic is
averaging 4.7 ppg in 15.5 mpg for Minnesota.
He is shooting a career-low .355 from the field, including .286 from three
point range. Szczerbiak has yet to play in the NBA this season as he recovers
from injuries and mulls a possible retirement. If he decides to play he could
possibly end up in Cleveland
late in the season.
O’Neal leads
the Cavs in blocked shots (1.4 bpg), is second in field goal percentage (.516),
is tied for second in rebounding (7.0 rpg) and ranks third on the Cavs in
scoring (10.9 ppg). His per game averages are career-lows across the board but
he is also averaging a career-low 23.4 mpg. On a per minute basis his
rebounding and shotblocking numbers are better than they were last year when he
made the All-Star team, was co-All-Star MVP and earned selection to the All-NBA
Third Team. The Cavs do not need or expect for O’Neal to play at a superstar
level; they need for him to be the “Big Bill Cartwright”
and so far he has filled that role very well. The only mildly disappointing
number is the field goal percentage but after a slow four game start in October
O’Neal shot .531 in November and he has shot .524 so far in December.
Parker is
averaging 7.3 ppg and currently leads the NBA in three point field goal
percentage (.500). Moon is averaging a career-low 5.5 ppg but he is shooting a
career-high tying .485 from the field; his per game averages are down because
his minutes have been slashed to 18.6 mpg after he averaged at least 25.9 mpg
in each of his first two seasons.
The bottom
line so far is that the Cavs gave up an effective but limited and undersized
center, a shooting guard who is shooting very poorly and a shooting guard/small
forward who is not currently in the league for an All-Star center who is aging
but still effective in limited minutes, a shooting guard who spaces the court
extremely well because of his three point shooting range and an athletic small
forward whose minutes have been limited because he plays behind the league’s
best player at that position. Furthermore, the impact of Cleveland’s roster
adjustments goes beyond simply adding up and comparing the individual numbers
of these players; O’Neal’s presence means that the Cavs have a legitimate low
post option on offense and that on defense they do not have to double-team the
opposing team’s primary low post option, a factor that proved decisive in the first matchup of the season versus Orlando, the team that derailed Cleveland’s championship plans last
season.
It is not
surprising that the per game numbers for the Cavs’ three new players are lower
than they were when those players had bigger roles on lesser teams; in order to
win a championship, players have to be willing to fill defined, appropriate
roles and to sacrifice minutes/shot attempts for the greater good of the team. I
am puzzled by commentators who suggest that the Cavs lack talent and are too
dependent on LeBron James. As noted above, the Cavs own one of the top records
in the NBA—and they have accomplished this by relegating two starters from last
year’s NBA-best 66-16 team to the bench (Zydrunas Ilgauskas, Anderson Varejao)
and with only sporadic contributions from Delonte West, who not only started
for the Cavs last season but led them in playoff minutes played. The 2010 Cavs
are obviously much more talented than the 2009 Cavs, let alone the 2007 squad
that made it to the NBA Finals; Shannon Brown was the 12th man for
the 2007 Cavs and would not likely be receiving much playing time for the Cavs
this season yet he is a key member of the eight man rotation for the defending
Champion Lakers.
The Cavs are
on pace to win 60-plus games and contend for the number one seed in the Eastern
Conference. There is every reason to believe that they will play better as the
season progresses and their new players become fully integrated into Coach Mike
Brown’s system. The biggest wild card for this team—and the factor most likely
to potentially be their downfall—is Delonte West’s uncertain status. West is an
extremely versatile player who is not exceptional in any one category but who
has no skill set weaknesses. If by playoff time the Cavs are able to rely on
him to either be a regular starter or at least a consistent force as a 25-plus
mpg sixth man then the Cavs will be very formidable.
Labels: Anthony Parker, Cleveland Cavaliers, Jamario Moon, LeBron James, Shaquille O'Neal
posted by David Friedman @ 7:06 PM
1 Comments:
Saw this and thought you would find it interesting, if you have not seen it already:
http://www.blazersedge.com/2009/12/22/1212758/hoopdata-com-takes-quantum-leap-in
http://www.hoopdata.com/boxscore.aspx?id=291220014
Apparently, HoopData have created a much more detailed box score, including raw numbers, locational breakdown of shots, usage and other rates, true shooting percentages, and-1s, etc.
Not perfectly, but certainly a very interesting additional data point.
Happy holidays, David.
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