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Tuesday, April 30, 2013

Sleepwalking Lakers End "Nightmare" Season by Being Swept

Dwight Howard called the Lakers' 2012-13 season a "nightmare"--and that nightmare came to its inevitable, inexorable conclusion on Sunday as the San Antonio Spurs clinically dispatched the listless Lakers 103-82, completing the sweep. The Spurs' point differential versus the Lakers was 18.8 ppg, tied for the fourth largest margin of victory in playoff history and the worst such performance in Lakers' history. The Lakers are only the second team in playoff history to lose back to back home games by at least 20 points each (the Spurs won game three 120-89).

The Spurs dismantled the Lakers in clinical fashion. Tony Parker led the Spurs in scoring (22.3 ppg). He shot .493 from the field while also topping the Spurs in assists (6.5 apg). Manu Ginobili was very productive in limited minutes, averaging 11.3 ppg in just 19.5 mpg. Tim Duncan averaged 17.5 ppg and 7.5 rpg while shooting .517 from the field. Though the numbers do not make this obvious, Duncan consistently outplayed both Lakers' big men; this is a great example of how statistics often do not tell the complete story: it is important to use an "educated eye" to place statistics in proper context. In this particular case, it is vital to understand that the Spurs feature a disciplined and balanced offensive attack; that philosophy--and the fact that the games were not very competitive--did not enable any Spur to author flashy individual statistics. Duncan is the Spurs' hub offensively and defensively. He provides scoring from both the low post and with his faceup game, he sets solid screens and then rolls effectively to the hoop and he is an excellent passer; on defense he can guard any post player without needing much assistance and he is an outstanding help defender who protects the paint against drives and cuts.

Anyone who thought that the Spurs were a good playoff matchup for the Lakers should be drug tested; no playoff team was a good matchup for the Lakers and the only team that they would have had a realistic chance to beat--even with a fully healthy Kobe Bryant--is the Houston Rockets. The Lakers were a lethargic, mentally weak and inefficient team at the start of the season and they were a lethargic, mentally weak and inefficient team versus the Spurs; the Lakers made some progress after the All-Star break but that may have been a mirage created at the cost of breaking down Kobe Bryant's body.

Before the season, I predicted that a Kobe Bryant-Dwight Howard-Pau Gasol-Steve Nash nucleus surrounded even by a mediocre bench would be good enough to contend for a title--a thesis that remains untested one year after the Lakers put that group together: according to the Elias Sports Bureau, the Lakers' projected starting five (the aforementioned quartet plus Metta World Peace) only played 189 minutes and 11 seconds together. The initial returns are not encouraging, though; the Lakers went just 8-14 in the 22 games in which all five of those players played (though that statistic is a bit skewed because in several of those games at least one of those players either got injured and/or was coming back from being injured).

After watching the Lakers struggle just to make the playoffs, I crafted a new thesis; in my 2013 Playoff Preview I wrote:

I am going to channel Yoda here: "For a long time these Lakers I have watched. Always their minds are on their contracts or their past or their future--never on where they are now, on who they are playing. A true champion does not think of such things. A champion must have the most serious mind and the highest level of dedication. They are careless. They lack focus."

I don't trust the Lakers. I don't trust Coach D'Antoni's no-defense philosophy, I don't trust the bench players, I don't trust Pau Gasol's ability to be the number one offensive option with Kobe Bryant out of the lineup and I don't completely trust Dwight Howard's health, though Howard has looked much better since the All-Star break. I absolutely do not trust the Lakers to play intelligently in the waning moments of a close game.


Injuries to key players are the main reason that the Lakers did not reach their potential but the Lakers were also poorly coached and their players did not consistently display high basketball IQ or the desire to compete hard; in an ideal world, players--and employees in any line of work--would be self-motivated but the reality is that coaching matters: great coaches inspire confidence and encourage effort not by making rah rah speeches but by devising game plans that players respect. Mike Brown is a young, defensive-minded coach with a track record of playoff success but the Lakers foolishly and impulsively fired him after just five games. The Lakers replaced Brown with Mike D'Antoni, who is now 1-14 in his last 15 playoff games (including his tenures with Phoenix and New York). D'Antoni's celebrated "Seven Seconds or Less" tactics did not bring a championship to Phoenix even though the Suns had a team stacked with All-Stars--including Steve Nash, Shawn Marion, Amare Stoudemire and future perennial All-Star Joe Johnson--and those tactics failed miserably this season; seven seconds or less is how long it took for opponents to score off of sloppy Lakers' turnovers as the Lakers consistently failed to execute on offense or hustle back on defense.

During the Lakers' game three debacle, Hubie Brown declared, "You can use all the excuses you want but the defensive game plan was zero here tonight--the execution of it, whatever it was." In one sentence, Brown cut straight to the point: it is not clear what the Lakers' defensive game plan was and--whatever it was--the players rarely played with much energy. Look at the league's best-coached teams, squads like San Antonio, Chicago, Oklahoma City and Boston; they have different philosophies and their players have various skill sets but those teams consistently play hard and they play smart. The New York Knicks under the direction of Mike Woodson play harder and smarter than they ever did when D'Antoni coached them.

A basketball purist had to cringe while watching the Lakers play this season. The Lakers had more turnovers than field goals made in the first half of game four. As Kenny Smith drily noted, "That's not impressive." The Lakers faced adversity because of the injuries, the coaching change and the lack of depth but, as Hubie Brown said, regardless of the reasons/excuses that one can cite, the Lakers lacked structure/organization. D'Antoni has some innovative offensive ideas and I am not saying that he is a bad coach but he is the wrong coach for this team and the Lakers would be wise to replace him with a stronger leader who is defensive-minded.

The players are not blameless, of course; Jeff Van Gundy rightly called out Howard and Gasol for their "deplorable" lack of effort, especially in the first half of the season when the Lakers dug themselves into the 17-25 hole that they only escaped at the cost of Bryant's health. Howard has played at an elite level for most of his career but he regressed this season. He deserves credit for coming back early after his offseason back surgery and he should therefore get a pass for some of his temporary physical shortcomings--most notably his relative lack of athleticism, particularly prior to the All-Star break--but his problems this season mainly stemmed from his mindset: he is immature and it is not at all clear if it is more important to him to be "The Man" (i.e., the focal point of the offense) or to have fun by being silly or to win his first NBA championship. Howard averaged 17.0 ppg, 10.8 rpg and 2.0 bpg versus the Spurs. He shot .619 from the field and .444 from the free throw line. By his standards those are solid but not great numbers; he was not dominant and he did not have a significant impact. Nevertheless, it is silly to suggest that the Lakers should not re-sign him; if Howard stays healthy--and he has been a very durable player throughout his career--then he will be the best center in the NBA for at least the next five years and he likely will perform at a high level for as many as 10 more years. A player who can dominate in two areas--defense and rebounding--while also scoring at least 18-20 ppg is very, very difficult to replace. With the right coach and the right supporting cast, Howard is capable of leading a team to a championship--and if Bryant makes a fully healthy return from his Achilles injury then Bryant and Howard could form a potent duo in the short term before the Lakers become Howard's team after Bryant's retirement.

Pau Gasol is not an elite player and this series just reaffirmed that conclusion. Gasol averaged 14.0 ppg while shooting .481 from the field and .545 from the free throw line. He averaged 11.5 rpg but just 1.8 offensive rebounds per game (he averaged at least 3.0 offensive rebounds per game in four of his five previous playoff campaigns with the Lakers, benefiting from all of the defensive attention attracted by Bryant). Gasol attempted just 11 free throws. With Bryant out of the lineup, Gasol had an opportunity to dominate--to score over 20 ppg and take control of the series--but he did not even come close to doing that. Gasol is a very skillful player but he is declining physically and he never had the aggressive mindset of an elite player; he was a very good second option for the Lakers during their 2009 and 2010 championship seasons and he could perhaps be a solid third option on a championship team now but D'Antoni never figured out how to properly deploy Gasol and/or how to keep Gasol energized (something that Phil Jackson mastered when he coached the Lakers, alternately needling and then praising Gasol).

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posted by David Friedman @ 1:46 AM

10 comments

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10 Comments:

At Tuesday, April 30, 2013 2:52:00 AM, Anonymous aw said...

On Mike Brown, I always thought he was a good coach. Even though he got fired from the Cavs and Lakers. I believe there is a rumor thwt the Cavs are interested in rehiring him.
You have some people that believe mike Brown is not that good of a head coach. Looking at his playoff success with Cleveland, they probably wouldn't give him credit for that success. They believe he just sat back and rode LeBron all those years.

You're right the Lakers should resign Howard. Then again it's up to him if he wants to resign as a Laker. As of now the last thing the Lakers need is for Howard to walk away. By the time next season starts Bryant will more than likely still be out. Gasol as you stated is in decline. We don't know what type of player he will be when he fully recovers neither.

If the Lakers do resign Howard then they should start making changes to the roster. Start by trying to trade Gasol. As of now he is way overpaid. There may be a team out there foolish enough to trade for him with his big contract; thinking he's a missing piece to make a run at a title or try to foolishly build a contender around him.

I had Dwight as at least a top 8 player in the NBA. Now I rank higher probably at least top 6. He's clearly the best big man when healthy.(power forward or center)
I understand a guy like Duncan is still very productive. But he's no longer a centerpiece type player for a title team. At this stage of his career he benefits from the deep team he's on.

 
At Tuesday, April 30, 2013 7:43:00 AM, Blogger jackson888 said...

david,

how about d12 for aldridge, plus some throw ins to make the trade work...
both teams benefit... aldridge gets a chance to be a great second option(pau 2.0). he is skilled in the low post and can hit 15 to 18 open jump shots consistently. a good fit to play alongside pau. tall and long limbed. dwight gets to be the featured star in portland (great basketball fans/single sport town) and play with a heady point guard (lillard) like he did in orlando (nelson).
i really hope lakers do this deal. it's not like portland will walk away from this deal. hell, i think portland might even agree to dwight for aldridge and lillard... just putting this out there.

 
At Tuesday, April 30, 2013 10:17:00 AM, Anonymous DanielSong39 said...

Not sure what the Lakers can do for next season. Kobe won't be 100% and any major move they might consider will just land the team further in salary cap jail and lose them even more draft picks.

In retrospect, the Steve Nash signing was a killer because they basically got a poor man's Ramon Sessions for twice the salary. If he was used as bait to trade for Howard, I understand the reasoning but it was a horrendous basketball move, even at the time of the signing.

Unfortunately no coach could have saved this season; when $50 million of your payroll plays like absolute garbage this is what happens. The Lakers weren't playing any defense for Mike Brown either, and were even more dreadful on offense. At some point the players have to take responsibility and when you see them check out on Phil Jackson, Mike Brown, and Mike D'Antoni in short order, the pattern becomes clear.

Unfortunately I think the best option for the Lakers is to muddle through another 50-win season, get eliminated in the first round, clear dead salary (Kobe, Gasol, Nash) and make a run at Lebron James. If you have a better idea please feel free to suggest.

 
At Tuesday, April 30, 2013 3:18:00 PM, Blogger David Friedman said...

Aw:

The Cavs have rehired Brown and Dan Gilbert admitted that he made a mistake firing him in the first place.

The Lakers should definitely trade Gasol--for an athletic wing and a starting point guard--if they can find a suitor and if they are able to re-sign Howard.

A healthy Howard is one of the top five players in the NBA and he is by far the best big man; even this season, when he was not close to being healthy, he still played at an All-Star level.

 
At Tuesday, April 30, 2013 3:21:00 PM, Blogger David Friedman said...

Jackson 888:

Portland has no motivation to do the deal you suggested. Why trade a big man in his prime for an older, declining, overpaid big man? That makes no sense.

Trading Lillard, the likely Rookie of the Year, makes even less sense for Portland.

 
At Tuesday, April 30, 2013 3:27:00 PM, Blogger David Friedman said...

Daniel Song 39:

The best case scenario for the Lakers is that they re-sign Howard, Bryant returns for most of the season at 85-90% of his previous form and they trade Gasol for an athletic wing plus a legit starting point guard.

Worst case scenarios include some combination of losing Howard for nothing, Bryant not returning to close to his previous form and being stuck paying almost $20 million to a declining Gasol.

The Lakers did better--with less talent--in 2012 under Brown than they did in 2011 under Jackson but management did not give Brown a fair chance this season. Offense was not a problem under Brown and if they had kept him around he would have improved the defense. When the Lakers fired Brown, Howard was not close to 100% and Nash was not playing at all.

If Nash had been healthy and able to play at his 2011-12 level then the price the Lakers paid would have been reasonable. However, Nash got injured, never recovered and never played at a high level.

 
At Tuesday, April 30, 2013 3:28:00 PM, Anonymous aw said...

Jackson 888 was talking about getting Dwight in return, not Gasol.

 
At Tuesday, April 30, 2013 3:32:00 PM, Blogger David Friedman said...

Aw:

The Lakers can only trade Howard if he agrees to a sign and trade and I don't see any way that Howard agrees to go to Portland. If the Lakers are to going to trade a big man then they will be trading Gasol. I should have made that clear in my response; Jackson may have been talking about trading Howard but that is unlikely to happen unless Howard signs somewhere else first and then the Lakers agree to a sign and trade for draft picks/assets (like the Cavs did with LeBron James after James bolted for the Heat).

 
At Tuesday, April 30, 2013 5:37:00 PM, Blogger jackson888 said...

david,
isn't dwight a free agent? can he actually sign with some other team and turn around and sign with the lakers for the lakers to do a sign and trade?
i hate players who show no heart and no accountability. magic is right in his tweets after howard was ejected. i would like the lakers to take a stand. sign and trade howard to show that the laker tradition means something as far as franchise player responsibilities is concerned.
you really think portland will walk away from a dwight for aldridge deal??? i know you appreciate dwight's value but the guy has no heart. demands too much and but is too immature to be a laker franchise player.

 
At Wednesday, May 01, 2013 5:29:00 AM, Blogger David Friedman said...

Jackson 888:

Yes, Howard can reach terms with another team and then that other team can do a sign and trade with the Lakers; in that scenario, Howard can still get max dollars, while the Lakers receive something in return for Howard as opposed to losing him for nothing. That is why the Cavs did a sign and trade with the Heat after LeBron James made the infamous "Decision."

Magic got ejected from games and allegedly got Coach Paul Westhead fired but it would have been stupid to get rid of Magic. I don't agree with everything that Howard has said or done but if he stays healthy then he will be the best big man in the league for many years to come and the Lakers would be foolish to trade him unless he has absolutely no interest in staying in L.A.

I did not say that Portland would turn down your proposed Howard trade. As I explained above, I should have more carefully phrased my answer to your original comment to say that since Howard is a free agent who can go where he pleases it is not likely that he will choose to go to Portland, so the only realistic trade option for the Lakers is to trade Gasol and it would not be logical for the Blazers to give up Aldridge for Gasol.

 

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