20 Second Timeout

Reflecting on Gregg Popovich's Remarkable NBA Coaching Career

Gregg Popovich suffered a stroke at the San Antonio Spurs' arena on November 2, 2024, and he did not return to coach the team last season, but he also did not formally step down; today, Popovich and the Spurs announced that he is retiring from coaching to become the team's President of Basketball Operations. Interim Coach Mitch Johnson will replace Popovich on a full-time basis; officially, Johnson's 32-45 record last season counts toward Popovich's career statistics, so Popovich finished with a 1422-869 regular season record* in addition to a 170-114 playoff record, which included five NBA titles (1999, 2003, 2005, 2007, 2014). Popovich earned the NBA Coach of the Year award in 2003, 2012, and 2014; the only other three-time winners are Pat Riley and Don Nelson, while Larry Brown received the award three times in the ABA plus one time in the NBA. Popovich ranks first in career regular season wins, third in career playoff wins, and tied for third (with John Kundla and Pat Riley) in championships won, trailing only Phil Jackson (11) and Red Auerbach (nine). Popovich was inducted in the Naismith Memorial Basketball Hall of Fame in 2023 alongside (among others) his former players Tony Parker and Pau Gasol. Popovich's first two championship teams featured Hall of Fame big men David Robinson and Tim Duncan, while his next three championship teams included Hall of Famers Tim Duncan, Manu Ginobili, and Tony Parker. The NBA Finals MVP for Popovich's last championship, Kawhi Leonard, will be inducted in the Hall of Fame as soon as he is eligible.

Popovich played basketball for the Air Force Academy and later became Air Force's coach before coaching Pomona-Pitzer from 1979-88, taking one season off to be an assistant coach under Larry Brown at Kansas. The connection with Brown proved to be critical, because Brown later hired Popovich as his lead assistant with the San Antonio Spurs from 1988-92. After the Spurs fired the entire coaching staff, Popovich landed in Golden State as an assistant coach under Don Nelson. The Spurs changed ownership and then brought back Popovich as their general manager. Popovich replaced coach Bob Hill with himself after the Spurs started 3-15 without David Robinson in 1996. Popovich took over the day that Robinson returned to the lineup. The timing did not look great, but Popovich had so much subsequent success that the circumstances of him hiring himself are forgotten by most. Robinson suffered a season-ending injury just six games into Popovich's tenure as coach, and the Spurs finished with a 20-62 record; they used the number one overall selection in the NBA Draft to pick Tim Duncan, who became the franchise's cornerstone player, leading the team to five championships while winning three NBA Finals MVPs and two regular season MVPs.

During his prime, championship-winning years, Popovich deflected any praise directed toward him by declaring that he was just fortunate that Duncan let him coach him. That sounded like a funny, self-deprecating line, but like many jokes it contained more than a bit of truth: Duncan retired in 2016, and since that time the Spurs advanced past the first round just once; in the first post-Duncan season, Kawhi Leonard led the Spurs to a 61-21 record and a Western Conference Finals appearance. Two first round losses followed, and then the Spurs missed the playoffs each season from 2020-25. The last era of Popovich's coaching career was forgettable; the Spurs tanked to try to get the draft rights to Victor Wembanyama, finishing 22-60 only to then go 22-60 the next season with Wembanyama in the fold. The Spurs have not won more than 34 games in a season since 2019.

Gregg Popovich's FIBA coaching career was up and down--he was an assistant coach on Team USA's disastrous 2002 and 2004 squads, and Team USA failed to medal under his direction in the 2019 FIBA World Cup--and at one point Team USA lost five games in an eight game stretch while he was at the helm, but he led Team USA to an Olympic gold medal in 2021 before his protege Steve Kerr took over the reins for Team USA.

Popovich's demeanor during press conferences and in-game interviews became a much-discussed topic. I sympathized with his impatience for ridiculous questions, but I would say that in recent years he behaved boorishly in response to legitimate questions about the poor performance of his team; he was past his prime, and probably sensitive about that. 

I interviewed Popovich when the Spurs were in the midst of their most dominant years, and I did not find him as intimidating as some reporters did for the simple reason that I prepared for all of my interviews (not just my ones with Popovich); a prepared reporter is ready for any situation, and is also generally going to be treated with more respect than a reporter who spouts cliches while betraying a lack of even the most basic understanding of the topic at hand (this does not just apply to basketball); during one interview, I asked Popovich which statistic he values the most, and he told me that he focuses on defensive field goal percentage. Popovich also admitted that he coaches more by feel than by statistics: "I would depend more on what I see and feel than on overdosing on stats." In more recent years, Popovich's demeanor became more arrogant and condescending, and this was not just in response to stupid questions; like many NBA stars (and he became as big of a star as any player), he developed an unseemly sense of entitlement reflected not only in rude answers to legitimate questions but also by providing social and political commentary that has not been sought and is not grounded in deep research.

Overall, Popovich's legacy is tremendous and enduring; he won at an elite level for a long time, and he is highly respected by both his players and by his opponents. Hopefully, he will make a complete recovery from his stroke and be able to work in the front office as long as he would like to do so. 

* 8/7/25 Note: The NBA subsequently determined that only the five games that Popovich actually coached in 2024-25 should stay on his record, and that the remaining games coached by Johnson should be attached to Johnson's record. Thus, Popovich's official career regular season record is 1390-824, and he still ranks first all-time.

Labels: David Robinson, Gregg Popovich, Manu Ginobili, San Antonio Spurs, Tim Duncan, Tony Parker, Victor Wembanyama

posted by David Friedman @ 11:55 PM

1 comments

Naismith Memorial Basketball Hall of Fame's 2023 Class Includes Dirk Nowitzki, Dwyane Wade, and Gregg Popovich

The Naismith Memorial Basketball Hall of Fame's 2023 class includes 12 inductees: NBA players Pau Gasol, Dirk Nowitzki, Tony Parker, and Dwyane Wade; NBA coach Gregg Popovich; college coaches Gene Bess, Gary Blair, David Hixon, and Gene Keady; WNBA player Becky Hammon; contributor Jim Valvano; the 1976 U.S. Women's Olympic Team (selected by the Women's Veterans Committee). 

The four NBA players and one NBA coach honored in tonight's ceremony all achieved the bulk of their accomplishments from the early 2000s through the mid-2010s. This article will focus on their careers, and the speeches that they gave tonight.

Tony Parker was the event's first speaker. His presenters were Tim Duncan and Manu Ginobili. Parker said of Duncan, "To me, he is the best power forward ever." He also said that Duncan "has a special power with his eyes," noting that Duncan never asked for the ball but just looked at him, and Parker knew that it was time to deliver the ball. "Manu is the most unique player I have ever played with," Parker declared, adding that Ginobili made two kinds of passes: the legendary ones, and the ones that went to the fans in the stands. Parker joked about how much Coach Popovich loved the second kind of pass.

Parker said that if you tell people your dreams and they don't laugh then your dreams aren't big enough. That is important enough to put in bold print: If you tell people your dreams and they don't laugh then your dreams aren't big enough. Who cares about the thoughts and opinions of small people who have small dreams? Such people never accomplish anything worth noting, nor do they have the power to stop anyone from accomplishing things that are worth noting.

Parker became emotional when he talked about how much his father and mother helped him, and he also mentioned his brothers, his two young sons, and his wife. Parker called Gregg Popovich his "second dad." Parker said that he always felt that his career would not be complete without leading France to the EuroBasket title, a goal that he accomplished in 2013 after previously winning two bronze medals and one silver medal in that event.

Parker joins his teammates David Robinson, Tim Duncan and Manu Ginobili in the Hall of Fame. Robinson, Duncan, Ginobili, and Parker played together on the San Antonio Spurs' 2003 championship team, and the Duncan-Ginobili-Parker trio went on to win three more NBA titles (2005, 2007, 2014). Parker received the 2007 Finals MVP after the Spurs swept the Cleveland Cavaliers in LeBron James' first NBA Finals appearance. Parker spent his first 17 NBA seasons with the Spurs before closing out his career with one year in Charlotte. He finished fifth in the 2012 regular season MVP voting while making the All-NBA Team four times and making the All-Star team six times.

Parker was not a great outside shooter, rebounder, or defensive player, but his speed in the open court and his ability to finish in the paint helped him to become a very good scorer and a solid playmaker with career regular season averages of 15.5 ppg and 5.6 apg. It could be argued that Parker did not post Hall of Fame caliber individual numbers, but the counterargument is that he sacrificed individual glory to play a key role in team success; it is useful to think of both Parker and Ginobili as the opposite of flashy scorers like Gilbert Arenas, Carmelo Anthony, and James Harden who lacked both the ability to lead a team to a title and the humility to accept being the second or third option on a championship contender.

Pau Gasol's presenter was Toni Kukoc. Gasol said that Kukoc inspired him, and that when he was a child he would have never imagined that not only would he be inducted in the Basketball Hall of Fame but that Kukoc would be his presenter. Gasol thanked his "friend and mentor" Kareem Abdul-Jabbar, who was also scheduled to be his presenter but was unable to attend the ceremony. Gasol thanked both of his parents for inspiring and motivating him, and he called his younger brother Marc "a special kid." Gasol said that his jump ball versus Marc at the 2015 NBA All-Star game was a special moment. Gasol noted that the 1992 Olympics in Barcelona "changed my life," because watching the Dream Team inspired him so much. 

Gasol mentioned that people who doubted and questioned him provided powerful motivation, including a coach during his youth days who told Gasol there was nothing he could do against the player he was guarding because "He will make the pros and you won't." 

Gasol is proud of his time with the Memphis Grizzlies, noting that he and his teammates built the foundation for what the Grizzlies have become.

Gasol praised "the person who elevated my game like no other, who taught me what it took to win at the highest level, who showed me how hard you had to work and the mentality you needed to have in order to be the best--the commitment you had to make, what it meant and what it took to be a leader: Kobe." Gasol said that the first night he joined the Lakers, Kobe Bryant made a point of introducing himself at 1 a.m. in Gasol's hotel room, delivering a simple message: "He made sure that right away, firsthand, I got the message. He said, 'Welcome to the team. I'm happy you're here. Now let's go win a championship together.' I said, 'Alright I'm in, man. I'm in. Have a good night.' That was it. No crap. Straight to the chase." Gasol added, "I wouldn't be here without you, brother. I wish more than anything that you and Gigi were here today with us. I miss you and love you." Gasol thanked Bryant's widow Vanessa for attending the ceremony, and he thanked her for letting him be an uncle to Bryant's surviving children. Bryant's untimely death alongside his daughter Gianna and seven other passengers in a helicopter crash is a tragedy not only for his family, but also a loss that creates a void that ripples out and touches people across the world. 

Gasol offered a "special thank you to Phil Jackson, a truly incredible man." He said that Jackson taught him and his Laker teammates about mindfulness.

Gasol was not only an NBA star but also a highly decorated FIBA player who led Spain to much success. He declared, "Representing my country was a big deal, and such a privilege."

Gasol thanked the media for providing a platform for the game to reach millions of people. Gasol said that transitioning to his post-playing career was "a big shock," and he praised his wife for helping him through that time. Gasol closed his speech by urging everyone to do whatever they can to help others, emphasizing that by working together we can maximize our impact on society. 

Gasol's eloquence and heartfelt messages are not surprising to anyone who has heard him speak before.

As Gasol readily acknowledged in his speech, his ascent to Hall of Fame status is directly connected to the nearly seven seasons that he spent playing alongside Kobe Bryant with the L.A. Lakers. Prior to teaming up with Bryant, Gasol won the 2002 Rookie of the Year award, earned one All-Star selection and did not make the All-NBA Team in his first eight NBA seasons, and his Memphis teams went 0-3 in playoff series--swept each time--during that period. The arc of Gasol's career changed completely after Memphis traded him to the L.A. Lakers late in the 2007-08 season. 

In the final 27 games of the 2007-08 season, Gasol shot .589 from the field for the Lakers, far exceeding his previous career-high field goal percentage of .538, as well as his .501 field goal percentage during the first 39 games of the 2007-08 season when he played for Memphis. Gasol averaged more than 3.2 offensive rebounds per game in three different seasons with the Lakers, but he averaged less than 3 offensive rebounds per game in every other season of his career. It is reasonable to suggest that the improvements in Gasol's field goal percentage and offensive rebounding as a Laker resulted from the extra defensive attention drawn by Bryant. Also--as Gasol mentioned in his speech--Bryant and Coach Jackson helped him to develop a champion's mindset. The Lakers made three straight NBA Finals appearances from 2008-2010 with Bryant leading the way and Gasol serving as an excellent second option, and they won back to back NBA titles in 2009 and 2010.

Many Lakers other than Bryant seemed satisfied after winning two championships, and the team lost in the second round of the playoffs in 2011 and 2012. Bryant's long tenure as an elite player ended after he ruptured his Achilles late in the 2013 season. Without Bryant leading the way, Gasol averaged 14.0 ppg on .481 field goal shooting as the San Antonio Spurs swept the Lakers in the first round of the 2013 playoffs. Gasol played one more season with the Lakers, but the team went just 27-55 as injuries limited Bryant to six games. Gasol signed with the Chicago Bulls in 2014, and he made the All-Star team in both of his two seasons in Chicago in addition to making the All-NBA Second Team in 2015, but his statistics never again matched the numbers he posted alongside Bryant. Gasol spent a little over two seasons with the San Antonio Spurs, and then played three games for Milwaukee before retiring after suffering a foot injury. 

Gasol's career regular season numbers are solid (17.0 ppg, 9.2 rpg, .507 FG%) but not spectacular. His career playoff series record is 13-4 with the Lakers, and 3-6 with all other teams. Gasol is a Hall of Famer primarily because of his two championship seasons with the Lakers, plus his decorated FIBA career that included three Olympic medals with Spain (two silvers, one bronze), a gold medal in the 2006 World Cup, and seven EuroBasket medals (including gold medals in 2009, 2011, and 2015). 

Gasol was a good low post scorer who could also face the basket, pass to open cutters, rebound, and block shots. He went from being a bit underrated during his Memphis seasons to being a bit overrated as a Laker due to the reluctance of some media members to give Bryant full credit for his significant role in mentoring players so that the team would be successful, and the insistence of those same media members on providing nonsensical critiques of Bryant's shot selection. 

Gregg Popovich's presenters were David Robinson, Tim Duncan, Manu Ginobili, and Tony Parker. Popovich said that he tried to think of a word to describe this moment, and the one that fits best is "unimaginable." Popovich insisted that he was not displaying false humility and that he genuinely wondered, "What the hell am I doing here? How did this happen?" Popovich became choked up, and said that he is a "Division III guy." Popovich said that he thought about his journey to the Basketball Hall of Fame, and he concluded that there are two reasons: one is a long list of people who he thanked, and the second reason was very brief.

Popovich thanked Hank Egan, who he called a "very underrated coach." Egan coached Popovich at the Air Force Academy.

Popovich praised Dean Smith and Larry Brown as basketball "purists" who would stop practice if a player was just slightly off while doing a rocker step. Popovich said that Don Nelson was a mentor who was the opposite of Smith and Brown because he specialized in doing unorthodox things. Popovich also noted Nelson's knack for figuring out how to exploit matchups.

Popovich made some "special thank yous," starting with Jerry Colangelo for "fulfilling a lifetime dream" by hiring him to coach Team USA, and including Sean Ford, Tim Dooley, and Mike Krzyzewski for their help when Popovich coached Team USA.

Next, Popovich thanked all of his players and assistant coaches. He thanked three people who have been with him during his entire San Antonio journey: R.C. Buford, who Popovich said "should be standing right here," Will Sevening, who Popovich called "trainer of the century," and Tom James, the Spurs' p.r. director. He concluded by thanking his wife of 42 years (Erin, who passed away in 2018), his son Micky, his daughter Jill, and "the stars of the show": his grandchildren. 

The second reason involved one word: "Duh!" Popovich then shook the hands of each of his Hall of Fame presenters. The crowd reacted as if that were the end of his speech, but Popovich insisted that he was not quite done yet. Popovich described the special qualities of each of his four Hall of Fame presenters. David Robinson reluctantly accepted Popovich's cursing as long as Popovich promised to never use the lord's name in vain. Parker accepted Popovich's harsh coaching methods that, Popovich joked, would land him in jail if he used them today. Popovich appreciated that Duncan would nod his head and acknowledge what Popovich said, which made Popovich feel important. Popovich said that Ginobili's wild, uninhibited playing style taught him that sometimes the best thing that a coach can do is shut up and let his players be themselves.

Popovich minimized the importance of Xs and Os, repeatedly stating that personal relationships are what matter most: "What exists is seeing those guys and their kids." Popovich concluded, "Those relationships stay with you forever."

Popovich has coached the San Antonio Spurs to five championships (1999, 2003, 2005, 2007, 2014) while winning the Coach of the Year award three times (2003, 2012, 2014) and compiling the most regular season coaching wins (1366) in NBA history. He ranks third in NBA playoff coaching wins (170), trailing only Phil Jackson (229) and Pat Riley (171). Only Jackson (11) and Red Auerbach (9) have won more NBA titles as a coach than Popovich, who is tied with Riley and John Kundla. Under Popovich's direction, the Spurs won at least 50 games in 18 straight seasons. Popovich is respected for both his tactical acumen and his ability to connect with players ranging from Hall of Famers to reserves who see little playing time. He can say that strategy does not matter and wins don't matter, but the reality is that he devoted his life to becoming a great basketball strategist who won a lot of basketball games.

Dirk Nowitzki's presenters were Jason Kidd and Steve Nash. Nowitzki said that his career was made possible by several qualities and values. He listed each important quality/value, and mentioned people who represented those qualities/values. The first quality he cited is "creativity," and Nowitzki thanked his first NBA coach Don Nelson for being "an incredible basketball mind." Another quality is "leadership." Nowitzki thanked Nash for being a "great role model," "the best teammate I ever had," and "a friend for life." Nowitzki thanked Kidd for instilling the value of "competitiveness" in him and his teammates, calling Kidd a "wonderful, wonderful all-around player" with whom he forged a "bond for life." Nowitzki said that another important quality is "respect," and he mentioned that he did not always like his Hall of Fame classmates but he always respected them. He stated that he has the "utmost respect" for Popovich, who sent a handwritten note to him after Dallas won the 2011 NBA title.

Nowitzki declared that "loyalty" is the quality "more important to me than any other," and he said that Mark Cuban embodies that quality. Nowitzki thanked Donnie Nelson for "taking risks" by recommending that the Mavericks draft him when he was a teenager. He thanked Coach Rick Carlisle for teaching him how to be detail-oriented. Nowitzki thanked Coach Avery Johnson for helping him to become more than a jump shooter. Johnson represents the value of "intensity." 

Nowitzki's teammate Michael Finley represents "professionalism." Nowitzki said, "No one can whistle a symphony" and he praised the "team spirit" in the Dallas organization. "Innovation" is represented by Holger Geschwinder, Nowitzki's personal coach and mentor who "always thought outside the box." The next quality Nowitzki mentioned is "protection," represented by his sister. Nowitzki learned "humbleness" from his parents, and he spoke a special message to them in German. "Passion" is a quality that he learned from his wife, Jess. 

Nowitzki learned "curiosity" from his three children Malaika, Max, and Morris, who he encouraged to find role models who will help them the way his role models helped him. He said that it is important to approach life as a learner and not as a person who thinks that he knows everything. Nowitzki concluded, "When you're green you grow, when you're ripe you rot."

Dwyane Wade was the final inductee. His presenter was Allen Iverson. Wade expressed his appreciation to all of the other inductees, and joked that it was "therapy" for him and Nowitzki, alluding to their battles in the 2006 and 2011 NBA Finals. Wade's first basketball memory is from when he was five years old, and he said that every time he held a basketball something came alive in him. He thanked his father for taking him to various parks to play against grown men. Wade said "the best thing about that time is what the game taught me" about how basketball connects people and also fuels your love of competition. Wade called basketball a "vessel" that changed his life and the life of his family.

Wade described in detail how he practiced Michael Jordan's famous move from the 1991 NBA Finals--immortalized by Marv Albert's famous call, "A spectacular move by Michael Jordan"--over and over while attempting to add some of Jordan's style to his game. 

Wade declared, "My beliefs have always been stronger than anyone's doubts," echoing sentiments expressed by Parker and Gasol. Wade described Iverson as a hero who is not perfect but "relatable and real." Wade said that Iverson demonstrated that "coming from nothing is not a limitation but a motivation." Wade added that he wore number three and an arm sleeve throughout his career as tributes to Iverson.

Wade thanked his coaching mentors for teaching him the value of "we versus me," stating that those lessons enabled him to win NBA championships while playing alongside Shaquille O'Neal and LeBron James. Wade called his family his "lifeline," and he ended his speech by asking his father to join him on stage so that they could enter "basketball heaven" together. There was not a dry eye in the house after that moment.

The careers of Nowitzki and Wade intersected in two NBA Finals, as Wade noted in his speech. In 2006, Wade won the Finals MVP versus Nowitzki's Dallas Mavericks as the Miami Heat overcame a 2-0 deficit to win the series, 4-2. Wade averaged 34.7 ppg while shooting .468 from the field in the 2006 Finals and Nowitzki led the Mavericks with 22.8 ppg despite shooting just .390 from the field. This was the first of Wade's three NBA titles, and the last of O'Neal's four NBA titles as O'Neal won his first (and only) championship after being dealt to Miami by the L.A. Lakers. In 2011, Nowitzki won the Finals MVP while leading the Mavericks to a 4-1 triumph over the Heat in the first season after LeBron James and Chris Bosh joined Wade to form a "super team."

Wade had a good rookie season in 2003-04 (16.2 ppg, 4.5 apg, 4.0 rpg), but he emerged as an All-Star in his second season and he made the All-Star team for the next 11 years. Wade made the All-NBA Team eight times, including a pair of First Team selections (2009, 2010), and he also made the All-Defensive Second Team three times. He finished in the top five in MVP voting twice, peaking at third in 2009 when he averaged a career-high 30.2 ppg to win his only scoring title. 

Wade had already established himself as a future Hall of Famer before James and Bosh joined the Heat. After the Heat's disastrous performance in the 2011 NBA Finals, Wade convinced LeBron James that in order to win a championship James had to accept the responsibility of being the best player on the team. Wade played a secondary but vital role for Miami's 2012 and 2013 championship teams. The Heat reached the Finals all four seasons that James, Wade, and Bosh played together. 

Wade never developed a reliable outside shot, and at a listed height of 6-4 he was a bit undersized for a shooting guard in a sport where height and size matter a lot, so he relied heavily on his tremendous speed, agility, and leaping ability; consequently, Wade's game declined as his athletic skills eroded, and after averaging at least 21.2 ppg in each season from 2005-2013 he averaged more than 20 ppg just once in his final six seasons. Wade's teams went 3-2 in the NBA Finals and 22-10 overall in playoff series, including 14-2 while playing alongside James. Wade averaged 22.0 ppg, 5.4 apg, and 4.7 rpg during his regular season career. Michael Jordan and Kobe Bryant are clearly the two greatest shooting guards in NBA history, followed by Jerry West (unless one classifies West as a point guard), but an argument could be made that Wade is the top shooting guard in the next, non-Pantheon tier.

Nowitzki established himself beyond any doubt as a legend by leading the Mavericks to a championship versus a Heat team that went on to win the next two NBA titles. Nowitzki was not the first big man who could shoot from the outside--let's not forget about Bob McAdoo and Larry Bird, to name just two MVPs who stood at least 6-9 and had a great shooting touch--but as the league transitioned from inside-out play to outside-in play Nowitzki embodied the concept of the "stretch four," a player with power forward size and skills who could stretch opposing defenses by making three pointers.

Even though Nowitzki was a great shooter, it would be a mistake to ignore the other aspects of his game, most notably his rebounding prowess. He averaged at least 8.4 rpg for nine straight regular seasons, and he averaged 10.0 rpg in 145 playoff games. Spanning the 2001 and 2002 playoffs, Nowitzki had four straight postseason games with at least 30 points and at least 15 rebounds, something that had only been accomplished two other times since 1970 (both by Kareem Abdul-Jabbar). In 2003, Nowitzki had at least 30 points and 10 rebounds in back to back game sevens, joining Hakeem Olajuwon, Kevin McHale, Larry Bird, Elvin Hayes, Wilt Chamberlain and Bob Pettit as the only players to accomplish that feat.

Nowitzki won the 2007 regular season MVP, and he finished in the top five in MVP balloting in 2005 and 2006 while making the All-NBA Team 12 times, including four First Team selections (2005-07, 2009). The 14-time All-Star became just the seventh player to join the elite 30,000 point club, an exclusive group that still has just eight members.

Although Mark Cuban often brags about how smart and data driven he and his Mavericks are, the reality is that for most of Nowitzki's career the franchise did not do a great job of providing him with a superior supporting cast--and when he finally had one in 2011, the Mavericks promptly dismantled it, foreshadowing how the Mavericks dismantled the 2022 team that Luka Doncic led to the Western Conference Finals. As a result, Nowitzki's career playoff series record is just 13-14. Of course, the most notable of those 14 defeats happened after the 2007 regular season during which the Mavericks posted a league-best 67-15 record: the Golden State Warriors defeated the Mavericks 4-2 in the greatest playoff upset in NBA history, a series during which Nowitzki did not shine (to put it mildly) while his former coach Don Nelson coached circles around Avery Johnson, a good coach who made the foolish decision to slow the tempo down versus the Warriors instead of playing to the strengths that enabled his team to dominate during the regular season. Nowitzki erased any memories of the 2006 Finals collapse and the 2007 first round loss with his epic performance in the 2011 NBA Finals.

Wade and Nowitzki met twice at the summit in the NBA Finals, and they both retired after the 2019 season; NBA Commissioner Adam Silver honored both of them as special selections to that season's All-Star Game.  

After 2023 Basketball Hall of Fame inductee Jim Valvano was diagnosed with terminal cancer in 1992, he gave his famous ESPYs  speech during which he said that every day a person should laugh, think, and be moved to tears. If you do those three things, he declared, then you have had a full day. Every time I watch the Basketball Hall of Fame ceremony, I have a full day.

Articles About Recent Hall of Fame Induction Ceremonies:

Naismith Memorial Basketball Hall of Fame's 2022 Class Includes NBA Players Lou Hudson, Tim Hardaway, and Manu Ginobili (Class of 2022)  

The Naismith Memorial Basketball Hall of Fame Welcomes 15 New Members and Honors Bill Russell a Second Time (Class of 2021)

Kobe Bryant Headlines the Naismith Memorial Basketball Hall of Fame Induction Ceremony (Class of 2020) 

The Basketball Hall of Fame Welcomes A Diverse Class of 12 Inductees (Class of 2019)

Thoughts and Observations About the 2018 Naismith Memorial Basketball Hall of Fame Enshrinement Ceremony (Class of 2018)

Labels: Basketball Hall of Fame, Dirk Nowitzki, Dwyane Wade, Gregg Popovich, Pau Gasol, Tony Parker

posted by David Friedman @ 11:44 PM

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Harden Disappears as the Spurs Embarrass and Eliminate the Rockets

The James Harden for MVP hype crashed into a serious reality check as the San Antonio Spurs routed the Houston Rockets 114-75 to win the series 4-2 and advance to a Western Conference Finals showdown versus the Golden State Warriors. High turnovers and low field goal percentage have consistently been Harden's trademarks in key postseason games, going all the way back to the 2012 NBA Finals, and this game was no exception: Harden finished with 10 points on 2-11 field goal shooting with six turnovers.

LaMarcus Aldridge led the Spurs with 34 points and 12 rebounds. Jonathon Simmons contributed 18 points, Patty Mills had 14 points and seven assists and Pau Gasol added 10 points, 11 rebounds and five assists. Mills started in place of Tony Parker, who suffered a season-ending injury earlier in this series. Kawhi Leonard missed game six with an ankle injury that also forced him out of the overtime and most of the fourth quarter of San Antonio's game five win. The Spurs were without the services of their two best players this postseason--Leonard and Parker are two former Finals MVPs--and yet Harden still could not conjure up a home win to at least push the series to a seventh game.

We have heard all season about how Houston general manager Daryl Morey, Coach Mike D'Antoni and Harden are all on the same page. We just saw what is written on that page: jack up a bunch of three pointers, play small and defense is optional. That has never been a championship formula in the NBA. If Morey, D'Antoni and Harden are going to share the credit for a good regular season then it must also be recognized that they deserve the "credit" for this game and this series. No one can say that the Rockets did not have enough to win this series, because this is exactly the team that Morey, D'Antoni and Harden wanted. We heard how innovative and smart it is to shoot three pointers and free throws while eschewing post ups and most other two point shots. The Rockets followed that strategy to perfection in game six, making just nine two pointers while firing up 40 three point attempts--and they got blown out.
 
This will be portrayed as a shocking result but I predicted that the Spurs would hold the Rockets to 100-105 ppg and win in five games while Harden averaged 25 ppg and 7 apg but shot between .400 and .420 from the field with between 5-7 turnovers per game. Here are the final numbers: San Antonio won in six games and held the Rockets to 103.5 ppg (the Rockets averaged 115.3 ppg in the regular season) as Harden averaged 24.5 ppg (on .414 field goal shooting) and 9.7 apg with 5.2 turnovers per game.

I added that "the Rockets are a high variance team (they might have a home game during which they sink 15 or 20 three pointers)" and that proved true as well: Houston won game one in San Antonio 126-99 on the strength of 22-50 three point field goal shooting; that result inspired a lot of silly articles about how the Spurs could not beat the Rockets because they played an outdated style featuring players who are too big and/or too old. In contrast, I never wavered and I correctly called that first game "an aberration."

I knew that over the course of a series the Spurs would follow the correct game plan: defend Harden with high hands, avoid fouling him and use their big men to dominate the paint. At the start of the game six telecast, ESPN's Mike Breen quoted San Antonio Coach Gregg Popovich's defensive philosophy regarding Harden: "Keep your hands out of the strike zone." In other words, play with high hands and do not foul. Jeff Van Gundy said that Aldridge and Gasol must be more aggressive and punish Houston's smaller defenders. He also suggested that Gasol use an inside pivot to set up his dribble to power to the hoop. After an early first quarter shot when Gasol settled for a turnaround fadeaway over Harden, Van Gundy said that this was "awful offense." The funny thing about watching Harden guard Gasol is this is a matchup of two players who are not suited to be the best player on a championship team--and Morey actively tried to build around both of them, though he only was able to acquire Harden. Gasol won two championships with the Lakers as Kobe Bryant led the way and he might win a title as a complementary player with the Spurs but he never had the right mindset to be the best player on a championship team.

Gasol did not carry the load on this night, either, but he filled his role quite well. Aldridge took Leonard's spot as the offensive focal point. He scored 10 points on 5-7 field goal shooting as the Spurs jumped out to a 25-16 lead and never looked back. The Rockets shot 4-11 from the field with five turnovers during that stretch. The Spurs led 31-24 at the end of the first quarter and Harden had two points on 0-0 field goal shooting with three turnovers. Mark Jackson said, ''This is as bad as I've seen him play." 

Breen commented that there was a "late arriving crowd." The crowd arrived so late that the game was basically over and they could have left by halftime. San Antonio led 50-29 midway through the second quarter before Harden made his first field goal and the halftime score was 61-42. Harden had five points and five turnovers. He attempted the fewest shots of the eight Rockets who played in the first half.

During the halftime show, Jalen Rose bluntly declared "Is James Harden freezing up? I'm not surprised he's a turnstyle on defense but where's the passion? What I am seeing from James Harden and the Houston Rockets is unacceptable. Did we see a C-H-O-K-E?"

Chauncey Billups added that Harden's 1-2 field goal shooting is "inexcusable. If he were 1-10, at least that would mean he is trying. Are you serious? You've got to give me more than that."

Before the second half began, Van Gundy declared that Harden needs "a hype man" to pump him up. Really? An MVP candidate needs someone to pump him up in an elimination game at home? Actually, Harden has "hype men" throughout the media: the folks who have been hyping him as an MVP candidate. What Harden needs--if his goal is to win a championship--is to be the second or third best player on his team, as I have been saying since he rejected Oklahoma City's contract offer.

Van Gundy added that great players have the capacity to bounce back and "I'd be shocked if Harden does not have a great second half." The first half of his statement is true. As for the second half--well, at some point Van Gundy and others may have to concede that Harden is not really as great as they have touted him to be. Harden is an All-Star caliber player but he is miscast as the best player on any team with championship aspirations. Harden missed his first three field goal attempts in the third quarter as the Spurs jumped out to their largest lead of the game (up to that point), 69-43. Harden shot 1-9 from the field in the second half, which may have "shocked" Van Gundy but should not be surprising to anyone who watched Harden lay bricks in key games versus the Heat, Clippers and Warriors in previous postseasons. This is who Harden is and this is why he is not an MVP-caliber player; Harden is an All-Star player who cannot handle the burden of carrying a team to a title. How many times does he have to not just fail but fail abysmally in such situations before media members will figure this out? This is not a one game aberration; this is a predictable result--and, as noted above, I predicted not only the final result of the series but also the numbers that both Harden and the Rockets would post overall.

The Harden narrative dies hard, though. Any time the Rockets scored in the second half--which was not that often--Breen, Van Gundy and Jackson kept saying things like the Rockets are showing signs of coming back or the three point shot can be a powerful weapon. The reality is that Harden and the Rockets never made a serious run, which is unusual for an NBA team and inexcusable in an elimination game.

Again, if this outcome were an aberration or unpredictable then I would agree that an MVP caliber player should not be judged by one game--but this was not an aberration, it was predictable and it is yet more evidence that what I have written about Harden for the past five years is true.

Harden's apologists will say that Harden needs more help but the issue is not getting more help for Harden. His game and temperament are not suited for being the best player on a championship team, so in order to win a title what he needs is not a better supporting cast--he needs to play alongside a better player and to become part of the supporting cast (a leader of the supporting cast, to be sure, but not the team's top star).

Morey can keep tinkering with the roster and the coaching staff and he actually makes some good moves from time to time--but as long as the Rockets are Harden's show, they will lose in the first round most of the time, as they have done in three of Harden's five Houston seasons.

Harden was the Shaqtin' A Fool MVP in 2015-16! That whole thing is a bit silly and hardly a scientific measurement of a player--but has any championship team ever been led by a player who would have even remotely been in consideration for that "honor"? There is a saying that if you mess with the game the game will mess with you and I think of that saying every time I see Harden go through his bricklaying/turnover extravaganza during key postseason moments. Will Harden have an epic game seven someday and lead his team to a playoff series victory? Sure, it could happen--he has the talent to do it--but if I were a betting man I would bet that if Houston makes it to a game seven Harden is going to fumble the ball all over the place and shoot blanks; if Houston advances in that situation, it will be with Harden on the bench and someone else making the plays, just like what happened versus the Clippers in 2015.

Labels: Houston Rockets, James Harden, Jonathon Simmons, Kawhi Leonard, LaMarcus Aldridge, Patty Mills, Pau Gasol, San Antonio Spurs, Tony Parker

posted by David Friedman @ 11:05 PM

16 comments

Spurs' Teamwork Overwhelms Heat's Star-Centered Approach

The San Antonio Spurs swept LeBron James' Cleveland Cavaliers in James' first NBA Finals appearance, they nearly dethroned James' defending champion Miami Heat in the 2013 NBA Finals and then in the 2014 NBA Finals they completely dismantled a star-studded Heat team that was trying to win a third straight championship. The 2013-14 San Antonio Spurs are a remarkable team. They set an NBA single-season playoff record with 12 victories by at least 15 points and they won the championship despite the fact that none of their key players is in the prime of his career, which is unusual if not unprecedented. The Spurs have the greatest power forward of all-time (Tim Duncan), a perennial All-Star point guard (Tony Parker), one of the league's top sixth men/third options (Manu Ginobili) and a young, versatile star in the making who has enormous untapped potential (Kawhi Leonard)--but Duncan, Parker and Ginobili are all past their primes, while Leonard may still be two or three years away from his prime.

Parker is generally referred to as the Spurs' best player and Leonard won the 2014 NBA Finals MVP but I think that Duncan is not only the Spurs' best player but that a good case could be made that he should have won the 2014 NBA Finals MVP (I felt the same way after the 2007 NBA Finals); Duncan provides a significant low post presence for the Spurs at both ends of the court, making the game much easier for his teammates. Duncan no longer posts gaudy individual statistics, so "stat gurus" and conventional-thinking media members alike fail to appreciate his contributions, but he is the one common denominator for all five of San Antonio's championships (along with Coach Gregg Popovich) and that is not a coincidence.

Much is made in some quarters about how "stat gurus" have reshaped the NBA landscape by supposedly unearthing the value of three point shooting but it does not take "advanced basketball statistics" to realize that a .333 three point shooter produces as many points as a .500 two point shooter if they both attempt the same number of shots. Jacking up three pointers from all angles because three pointers are "efficient" does not win championships; if that strategy worked, then Mike D'Antoni's Phoenix Suns would have been a dynasty and the Houston Rockets would have already won at least one title in the Daryl Morey era. The reality is that three point shooting can be a good ingredient in a championship recipe if that recipe also includes paint attacks (by posting up and/or driving) on offense, good floor balance and tenacious defense. If one or more of your key players shoots a lot of three pointers while also acting like playing defense leads to a terminal illness then your team will not win a championship, no matter how "efficient" your team looks on paper. 

The Spurs routed the Heat with pinpoint passing, excellent defense and tremendous discipline; borrowing a phrase used by chess champion Susan Polgar, the Spurs accepted their devastating 2013 NBA Finals loss with grace and they won the 2014 NBA Finals with dignity. The Spurs are a joy to watch for any basketball purist.

In contrast to the Spurs' balance, the Heat have four future Hall of Famers (LeBron James, Dwyane Wade, Chris Bosh and Ray Allen), two of whom are in their primes (James and Bosh) and two of whom are filling reduced roles that they should be more than capable of handling at the current stages of their respective careers. The numbers say that James was very productive during the 2014 NBA Finals and that he did all he could reasonably be expected to do--but the eye test says that he rarely dominated and that he often was not the best player on the court. James' talent is unquestionable and his mental game has grown by leaps and bounds but there is something missing when he faces the highest level of competition. His teams are now 2-3 in the NBA Finals, a record that does not compare favorably with the ABA/NBA Finals records of most Pantheon-level players:

Bill Russell: 11-1
Michael Jordan: 6-0
Kareem Abdul-Jabbar: 6-4
Magic Johnson: 5-4
Julius Erving: 3-3
Larry Bird: 3-2
Wilt Chamberlain: 2-4
Jerry West: 1-8
Oscar Robertson: 1-1
Elgin Baylor: 0-7

Erving and Bird each suffered two Finals losses to teams that featured Abdul-Jabbar and Johnson. Jordan went 1-0 against Johnson sans Abdul-Jabbar in Johnson's final full season. Russell defeated the West-Baylor duo four times and once he defeated a Chamberlain-West-Baylor trio. Also worth mentioning are the career NBA Finals records of Kobe Bryant (5-2), Tim Duncan (5-1) and Shaquille O'Neal (4-2), the three most dominant players of the post Michael Jordan era other than James. This additional context shows that Russell's Boston Celtics repeatedly frustrated Chamberlain, West, Robertson and Baylor--but most players who can make a reasonable case for being the greatest player of their era (if not of all-time) won at least three championships and did not have a losing record in the Finals.

James is a great player; he is the best player in the NBA, the 2014 regular season MVP vote notwithstanding. He may set the record for most regular season MVPs and he still has an opportunity to win more championships. However, as things stand right now he is not a more dominant champion than several of his great predecessors--and the argument that those great predecessors had more help can be countered by pointing out that they also faced teams that had multiple future Hall of Famers in their primes. James leading the Heat to four straight NBA Finals appearances and two championships is a laudable accomplishment--but a slightly past his prime Kobe Bryant led the Lakers to three straight NBA Finals appearances and back to back championships with a supporting cast that was not as deep or as talented as James' Heat. James is not as terrible as his harshest critics suggest--but if he were as great as his biggest fans believe then he would have done more in his prime with two Hall of Fame sidekicks than an aging Bryant did while playing alongside Pau Gasol (who was 0-12 in the playoffs before teaming up with Bryant), Lamar Odom (who never made the All-Star team, never mind being a future Hall of Famer), Andrew Bynum (who put up Luc Longleyesque numbers during the Lakers' three straight trips to the Finals) and the ghost of Ron Artest.

Wade's career has followed an interesting arc; his productivity has steadily declined since 2009, when he averaged a career-high 30.2 ppg and won his only scoring title. Wade has not made the All-NBA First Team since 2010, when he was 28. Wade used to be a good defender but this season he made James Harden look like a defensive stopper; not only did players routinely blow by Wade but Wade often did not make the slightest effort to recover and in open court situations he trotted back on defense as if he were lugging two pianos on his back. The Heat rested Wade liberally during the regular season to keep his body fresh for the playoffs and there is no indication that something is wrong with Wade physically; it just seems like he no longer plays as hard as one would expect an elite player to play.

Size matters in the NBA and having a complete skill set matters, particularly for an undersized players as he ages. Wade has always only had one plan of attack: bull toward the hoop, overpower any defenders in his path and either finish at the hoop or hope to be bailed out by a foul call in his favor. He never developed a reliable jump shot and he has shot better than .800 from the free throw line just once in his 11 year career. Wade has not aged well because his game is not nearly as well-rounded or adaptable as Jordan's or Bryant's; Jordan and Bryant both had the necessary height and skill set to compensate for declining athleticism.

Yet, even a declining and/or disinterested Wade would still be the number one offensive option if he played for the Spurs; the Spurs did not beat the Heat because of superior talent (though superior depth was a factor to some extent) but rather the Spurs beat the Heat because they maximized the abilities of their stars while making the Heat's stars feel uncomfortable. Duncan has diversified his offensive game, Parker has added a jump shot to his arsenal and former All-Star Ginobili has learned how to make the most of limited minutes/field goal attempts--but Wade is still trying to do the same things that he did in his prime, with much less success.

Bosh may be the most misunderstood future Hall of Famer in the NBA. He is a versatile and intelligent player who receives senseless criticism because of his willingness to take a back seat to James and Wade. Bosh averaged 24.0 ppg and 10.8 rpg in his final season with the Toronto Raptors before joining the Heat, so he clearly possesses elite level talent and the ability to be a number one option for a playoff team--but he understands that for Miami to be successful he must accept being the third option offensively and he must be willing to function as an undersized center defensively so that the Heat can run most teams off of the court with their athleticism and defensive pressure.

The Spurs' championship window supposedly slammed shut many years ago but if they had just been able to close out game six or game seven of the 2013 NBA Finals they would now be the reigning two-time defending champions. It will be interesting to see if the Spurs are able to keep their aging nucleus together but even if some of their older players retire they may still be a viable contender if Leonard emerges as an All-Star/All-NBA caliber performer. Meanwhile, the much younger Heat nucleus may be broken up or may decide to break itself up; if all of the rhetoric that the "Big Three" spouted three years ago about sacrificing money to win championships is true then those players would no doubt accept pay cuts so that the team can bolster its depth--but Wade has publicly stated his unwillingness to do this, so James may therefore decide that the time has come to team up with a sidekick who is younger and/or has a more diversified game than Wade.

Labels: Chris Bosh, Dwyane Wade, LeBron James, Manu Ginobili, Miami Heat, San Antonio Spurs, Tim Duncan, Tony Parker

posted by David Friedman @ 2:43 AM

92 comments

Conference Finals Recap/NBA Finals Preview

The Conference Finals round featured two much anticipated matchups but neither series went the distance. The Indiana Pacers took a 1-0 lead over the two-time defending champion Miami Heat but then the Heat won four of the next five games, exposing the Pacers as a good team that does not have quite enough talent or mental toughness to take the next step. Lance Stephenson had a solid series statistically (14.0 ppg, 5.8 rpg, 5.0 apg) but he embarrassed himself and his team with his foolish and at times reckless behavior. The Pacers did not look, act or play like a championship team. LeBron James had a subdued series by his lofty standards (22.8 ppg, 6.3 rpg, 5.5 apg, .559 FG%) but he controlled the action and asserted himself as the best player when it mattered most. Dwyane Wade has settled very comfortably into a secondary role, conserving his energy during the regular season and providing just enough postseason production to supplement James' all-around greatness. Chris Bosh's contributions will always be underrated by people who do not understand basketball; he is overmatched physically as a center but his agility and outside shooting touch make him the perfect center at both ends of the court for a speed-based team like the Heat. The Heat have two future Hall of Famers who are in or near their physical primes (James and Bosh), plus a declining future Hall of Famer who is still a potent threat (Wade) and a future Hall of Famer who is a key asset as a sharpshooting role player (Ray Allen).

Bill Russell (1957-66 Boston Celtics), Magic Johnson (1982-85 L.A. Lakers) and Larry Bird (1984-87 Boston Celtics) are the only players prior to LeBron James to lead their teams to at least four straight NBA Finals appearances; Russell's Celtics won nine titles in those 10 years (and 11 out of 13 years overall during his career), Johnson's Lakers captured two titles in those four years en route to becoming the team of the 1980s with five championships and Bird's Celtics won two titles in those four years (and three overall during his career). Some critics belittle the Heat's accomplishments by noting the relative lack of strength of the Eastern Conference in recent years but the fact that only four teams in NBA history have made it to four straight Finals proves that the Heat are, at the very least, a special team in the context of their own era--and a third title, which would represent two straight Finals' wins over a franchise that has claimed four championships during the Tim Duncan era, would solidify Miami's place as one of the NBA's top dynasties.
 
The Oklahoma City Thunder won all four regular season games versus the San Antonio Spurs and defeated the Spurs four straight times in the 2012 Western Conference Finals after dropping the first two games of that series but in the 2014 Western Conference Finals the Thunder never quite recovered after falling into a 2-0 hole. Serge Ibaka missed the first two games due to injury and his return in game three provided a big spark for the Thunder but the Spurs ultimately rode home court advantage into the NBA Finals, winning all three of their home games before closing out the series with a 112-107 overtime victory at Oklahoma City. If Ibaka had been healthy in the first two games--or if Russell Westbrook's regular season injuries had not cost the Thunder home court advantage--then the series may have had a different outcome. As Hall of Fame Coach Tex Winter says, "Everything turns on a trifle."

The much-criticized Westbrook shined during the Western Conference Finals, leading both teams in scoring (26.8 ppg), assists (7.3 apg) and steals (3.2 spg), and 2014 regular season MVP Kevin Durant averaged 25.8 ppg but the Thunder lost the series defensively; without Ibaka for the first two games, they could not contain the Spurs and it was not realistic to expect to come back from a 2-0 deficit two times in three years against a great team. San Antonio's Tim Duncan no longer posts gaudy individual numbers but he has gone from being recognized as perhaps the greatest power forward of all-time to being one of the most underrated players in the league; he controls the paint defensively and his post presence anchors the Spurs' half court offense. That said, Tony Parker's ankle injury could prove to be the biggest story of the NBA Finals; in order to beat the Heat, it is essential to attack the paint both in the post (which Duncan can do) and with dribble penetration (which is Parker's forte). The Spurs must both score in the paint and also utilize their paint attacks to collapse Miami's defense and create open three point shots.

Manu Ginobili is a perfect third option for the Spurs; he can score, he can create scoring opportunities for his teammates and he is a crafty defender but because the Spurs have Duncan and Parker plus a solid bench they do not need Ginobili to play at an All-Star level in every game. The role he has filled for the Spurs is the role that James Harden should have accepted for the Thunder, as opposed to making contract demands that resulted in him being traded to Houston.

The Spurs showed during last year's NBA Finals that they have the necessary personnel, playing style and toughness to defeat the Heat; they can pose matchup problems for Miami at both ends of the court--attacking the paint offensively and containing the Heat's speed game defensively--and in game six they came about as close as any team in NBA history has come to winning a championship without sealing the deal. Ginobili is healthy this time, unlike last year, though that may be mitigated by Parker's injury. The Heat have been very good this season but they seem to lack that extra gear that they found during their previous two playoff runs; maybe that is because no team has pushed them to the limit (something that both Indiana and San Antonio did during the 2013 playoffs) but I wonder if after four grueling campaigns the Heat still have that gear if/when they need to use it. At the start of the playoffs, I picked the Thunder to dethrone the Heat, so there is a certain logic to predicting that the team that ousted the Thunder will beat Miami. I think that Tim Duncan will win the 2014 Finals MVP and ride off into the sunset, finishing his career with five championships overall plus a 2-1 Finals record against James.

Labels: Chris Bosh, Dwyane Wade, LeBron James, Manu Ginobili, Miami Heat, San Antonio Spurs, Tim Duncan, Tony Parker

posted by David Friedman @ 5:39 AM

30 comments

The Real Team Nobody Wants to Face

It has been amusing during the past few weeks to hear various commentators suggest that "nobody wants to face" the Memphis Grizzlies in the first round of the playoffs. Early last season, the Grizzlies were a team on the rise with Lionel Hollins at the helm and Rudy Gay providing scoring punch from the small forward position to spread the floor for Zach Randolph and Marc Gasol but after trading Gay and ditching Hollins the Grizzlies are a much weaker squad; the Grizzlies suffered some injuries this season that some people used as a convenient excuse for Memphis' declining winning percentage and the Grizzlies received a temporary bump when Gasol returned to the lineup but as the regular season concludes they have hardly been setting the world on fire--posting a 6-4 record in their last 10 games--and they are in a three way tie with Dallas and Phoenix for seventh-ninth place in the Western Conference.

In recent seasons, teams that "nobody wanted to face" did not make much noise in the playoffs:

1. In 2006 nobody wanted to face the Sacramento Kings, who lost 4-2 to the San Antonio Spurs in the first round; the Spurs had a 34 point win and a 22 point win during that series and only lost game three by one point.
2.  In 2011 nobody wanted to face the Portland Trailblazers, who lost 4-2 to the Dallas Mavericks in the first round.
3.  In 2012 nobody wanted to face the New York Knicks, who lost 4-1 to the Miami Heat in the first round. Miami blasted New York 100-67 in the first game and took a 3-0 lead before dropping game four 89-87.

The Grizzlies have a solid inside offensive attack anchored by Randolph and Gasol and they are a very good defensive team but they just cannot score enough points--particularly from the perimeter--to beat an elite team in a playoff series. Russell Westbrook's injury last season enabled the Grizzlies to sneak into the Western Conference Finals--where they were promptly obliterated by the Spurs--but this year the Grizzlies will most likely exit in the first round, assuming that they even qualify for the postseason.

In contrast, the real team that nobody wants to face--or at least that nobody with any sense would want to face--is the Spurs, who have an NBA-best 58-16 record, a .784 winning percentage that is the best in franchise history. Their leaders have championship pedigrees--Coach Gregg Popovich, two-time regular season MVP Tim Duncan, 2007 Finals MVP Tony Parker and 2008 Sixth Man of the Year Manu Ginobili--they made it to the NBA Finals last season and they are currently in the midst of a 18 game winning streak; only 12 other NBA squads have won at least 18 games in a row, including some of the greatest teams in pro basketball history (1967 76ers, 1972 Lakers, 1996 Bulls, 2000 Lakers).

The Grizzlies are flawed, mediocre and vulnerable; the Spurs are well-balanced, they have a tradition of excellence and they are accustomed to making long playoff runs. It should be obvious which team "nobody wants to face" and which team would not evoke much fear.

Labels: Gregg Popovich, Lionel Hollins, Manu Ginobili, Memphis Grizzlies, Rudy Gay, San Antonio Spurs, Tim Duncan, Tony Parker, Zach Randolph

posted by David Friedman @ 4:33 PM

22 comments

LeBron James Dominates as Miami Heat Win Second Straight Championship

LeBron James authored one of the greatest seventh game performances in NBA Finals history, winning his second consecutive NBA Finals MVP and his second consecutive championship after carrying the Miami Heat to a 95-88 victory over the San Antonio Spurs. James scored an NBA Finals career-high 37 points on 12-23 field goal shooting (including 5-10 from three point range), grabbed a team-high 12 rebounds and passed for a team-high four assists. James tied Tommy Heinsohn's 1957 record for the most points scored in an NBA Finals game seven by a member of the winning team. James played a game-high 45 minutes and he guarded multiple positions, including spending a lot of time smothering San Antonio's All-Star point guard Tony Parker. James hit the jump shot that put the Heat up 92-88 with :27.9 remaining and then he stole the ball before making two free throws to clinch the win. He averaged 25.3 ppg, 10.9 rpg and 7.0 apg in the NBA Finals, leading his team in all three categories by wide margins; James averaged 25-10-7 in the NBA Finals for the second consecutive year--an NBA Finals stat line that no other player has equaled even once--and he joined Bill Russell and Michael Jordan as the only players who won both a championship and the regular season MVP in consecutive seasons. James averaged 25.9 ppg, 8.4 rpg and 6.6 apg during the 2013 playoffs while shooting .491 from the field, .375 from three point range and .777 from the free throw line.

James' production can best be described by two words: "great" and "necessary." There are many perks, awards and honors that come with being the best basketball player in the world but that status also carries with it a tremendous responsibility, something that James understands much better now than he did earlier in his career. Great players do not put up ordinary statistics in the NBA Finals; great players dominate the NBA Finals and impose their will on the opposing team. In the first three games of the 2013 NBA Finals, James scored 18, 17 and 15 points as the Heat fell behind two games to one; in the final four games of the series, James scored 33, 25, 32 and 37 points as the Heat won three times to capture the title. There are many statistics and strategies from this series that can be discussed and analyzed but the bottom line is that when James was a 16.7 ppg scorer in the first three games the Heat were headed for a very disappointing loss but when James averaged 31.8 ppg in the final four games he carried the Heat to the championship. James is an all-around player who can rebound, pass and defend at a very high level but his greatest attribute--no matter what anyone says--is that he is one of the best scorers in pro basketball history.

James' primary job is not to pass the ball or defer to others; his primary job is to score at least 25 ppg. The same thing is true of Kobe Bryant--and every time Bryant led the Lakers to the NBA Finals after the creation of this web site I wrote that he needed to average at least 25 ppg while shooting at least .450 from the field: that is the standard and that standard has nothing to do with "loving" one player or "hating" another player. James averaged 25.3 ppg on .447 field goal shooting versus the Spurs and the Heat did not clinch the championship until the final seconds of the seventh game at home--and they easily could have lost the championship in the final seconds of game six. James had a great series by the standards of most NBA players but he also barely met the 25 ppg/.450 threshold and that is why his team barely won; if he had performed better in the first three games then this series would not have lasted seven games but if he had not stepped up to the challenge in the final four games then the Heat would have lost. That is part of the confusing legacy of James: he is a great player who has already won two championships and may very well win several more championships but he has a strange propensity to not play his game when the stakes are highest. Maybe the glimpses he provides of his talent raise expectations to unreasonable levels--but I don't fault James for missing shots in the first three games as much as I fault him for not being aggressive enough. In the fourth quarter of game six and during most of game seven, James played decisively: he shot open jump shots without hesitation and he relentlessly drove to the hoop whenever he had the opportunity to do so. Any objective observer has to admit that James played very tentatively during the first three games, hesitating to shoot open jumpers and shying away from attacking the hoop.

Despite all of the talk about James not receiving enough help during his Cleveland years, consider these numbers: his 2007 team that reached the NBA Finals had three players who averaged between 11.3 and 12.6 ppg during the postseason, his 2008 team had three players who averaged between 10.8 and 13.1 ppg during the postseason, his 2009 team had three players who averaged between 10.5 and 16.3 ppg during the postseason and his 2010 team had three players who averaged between 11.5 and 15.3 ppg during the postseason. What about this year's Miami Heat featuring two perennial All-Stars other than James plus future Hall of Famer Ray Allen? Three Heat players averaged between 10.2 ppg and 15.9 ppg during the playoffs. Only four Heat players other than James scored in game seven and one of them, Chris Andersen, contributed just three points; both Chris Bosh and Ray Allen did not score, though Bosh made some key defensive plays and Allen matched James with four assists. No matter how you slice the numbers or analyze the skill sets of the Cleveland players and the Miami players, the reality is that for a team to win a championship the best player must not only post great numbers but he also must dominate the action down the stretch of close games. James has won two championships in Miami after failing to win a championship in Cleveland because James has improved his skill set, strengthened his mindset and committed himself to consistently dominating playoff games versus elite competition. If he had posted a 20-10-10 triple double in game seven that might have looked great on paper to some people but the Heat would have lost; James has an obligation to be a big-time scorer and he fulfilled that obligation in the 2012 NBA Finals and the 2013 NBA Finals after failing to do so in the 2011 NBA Finals and the 2010 Eastern Conference semifinals. Revisionist historians are eager to say that James has now refuted his critics but the truth is that James heeded some very valid critiques, worked hard to improve himself as a player and as a person and now he is reaping the rewards of that self-improvement.

Dwyane Wade was ineffective--and at times looked indifferent--during most of the 2013 playoffs but he played with tremendous energy and aggressiveness in game seven. He not only scored 23 points on 11-21 field goal shooting while grabbing 10 rebounds but he also made several hustle plays. For someone who says that he does not talk about injuries, Wade talks about his injuries a lot but I do not doubt that he really is injured and he deserves credit for saving his best for last, even if it seems like maybe he could have done a little more earlier in the playoffs; some people act like it is a crime against humanity to criticize Wade but, even after he boosted his statistics with his performances in games six and seven, he averaged a career-low 15.9 ppg during the 2013 playoffs and he only surpassed the 20 point plateau four times in his 22 playoff games.

Chris Bosh shot 0-5 from the field but he grabbed seven rebounds and he played excellent defense; the Heat left him on an island one on one versus Duncan, which enabled the Heat's perimeter players to smother the Spurs' perimeter players and hold them to 6-19 (.316) three point shooting. Bosh rarely touched the ball on offense, so it is not fair to judge his performance based on his scoring; on one play he approached Wade to set a screen but Wade turned the ball over and then glared at Bosh for daring to venture over to the strong side of the court when Wade wanted to go one on one. The Heat do not utilize Bosh like the eight-time All-Star that he is but they instead treat him like a glorified Horace Grant, someone who is expected to do the dirty work and occasionally hit a spot up jumper.

Championship teams often have a role player who makes a major, unexpected contribution during their playoff run; Shane Battier put his name alongside John Paxson, Steve Kerr and Derek Fisher by scoring 18 points while shooting 6-8 from three point range, tying the record for most three pointers made in a seventh game of the NBA Finals. Battier received the dreaded DNP-CD (Did Not Play--Coach's Decision) during Miami's 99-76 game seven win against Indiana in the Eastern Conference Finals but when Coach Erik Spoelstra called Battier's number in this game seven Battier responded with a clutch performance.

Tim Duncan had a very good overall game--24 points on 8-18 field goal shooting, 12 rebounds, four steals--but he admitted that he will forever be haunted by his critical late game mistakes, including two missed shots from point blank range that could have tied the score. Tony Parker looked completely drained, which is what happens when a small player is hounded by a much bigger and more athletic defender--especially if that defender is LeBron James. Parker had 10 points on 3-12 field goal shooting, plus four assists and three steals; he is an excellent player and he has been a key member of the ensemble cast for three San Antonio championship teams but--as Bill Russell mentioned before game six--Duncan is San Antonio's most valuable player. Anyone who doubts that size matters in pro basketball or who thinks that a small point guard can be the best player on a championship team should look very carefully at what happened in the final two games of this series: James dominated at both ends of the court and played a major role in shutting down Parker, while Parker had very little impact offensively or defensively. Size is significant not just because it affects what a player can and cannot do in a game but also because a smaller player is more likely to become worn down by the end of a long series than a bigger player is.

Manu Ginobili's overall FIBA/NBA resume will likely earn him induction to the Basketball Hall of Fame but the 2013 NBA Finals will not provide many clips for his career highlight video. He finished game seven with 18 points, five assists, four turnovers and a +6 plus/minus rating, providing an excelllent example of how misleading statistics can be; with the result up for grabs in the final 7:14, Ginobili committed three turnovers--including fumbling an easily catchable pass out of bounds plus firing two horribly off target passes that were easily stolen--and shot an air ball from three point range. Ginobili's butter fingers had a lot to do with San Antonio fumbling away the championship, regardless of what the numbers might suggest.

The good news for every future Hall of Famer in this series not named LeBron James is that so much attention is focused on James' legacy that few people care that much about the performances of any other player; Parker's late-series fade, Duncan's miscues at the end of game seven and Ginobili's atrocious ballhandling throughout the series will all be ignored by the vast majority of people who are trying to determine where James ranks among the greatest players in pro basketball history. I focus a lot of my coverage on James, too, but the performances of Wade, Duncan, Parker and Ginobili should at least be mentioned. Wade's excellent showings in games six and seven elevated his series scoring average to 19.6 ppg and he shot a very solid .476 from the field; he was not dominant but overall he was an effective second option. Duncan averaged 18.9 ppg and a series-high 12.1 rpg while shooting .490 from the field, which is about as much as can be reasonably expected from a 37 year old post player--and if the Spurs had closed out game six then he would have deserved serious NBA Finals MVP consideration. Parker averaged 15.7 ppg and 6.4 apg while shooting .412 from the field, numbers that are not good enough considering his role. Ginobili is only asked to be the third scoring option and second playmaking option but he averaged just 11.6 ppg (fifth on the team) and 4.3 apg (second on the team) while shooting .433 from the field and leading the NBA Finals with 3.1 turnovers per game despite only ranking ninth in the series in minutes played.

Two other Spurs should be mentioned. Kawhi Leonard tied James with 45 minutes played, finishing with 19 points and a game-high 16 rebounds; Leonard is an excellent rebounder/defender whose offensive game is still developing. Danny Green set three point shooting records during the first five games of this series but the Heat made a concerted effort to deny him open looks in games six and seven. Green scored five points on 1-12 field goal shooting in game seven; the Heat forced him to dribble instead of allowing him to catch and shoot and he looked extremely uncomfortable trying to make plays with a live dribble.

This series was notable not only for its great drama and high level of competitiveness but also because it thoroughly refuted the idea that it is necessary to hate and/or disrespect an opponent; after game seven, both teams demonstrated commendable sportsmanship as the players and coaching staffs exchanged hugs, handshakes and congratulations/consoling words. During the series there were no flagrant fouls, no technical fouls and no trash talk; rivalries are formed by great players making great plays, not by players doing a lot of extracurricular nonsense.

Labels: Chris Bosh, Danny Green, Dwyane Wade, Kawhi Leonard, LeBron James, Manu Ginobili, Mario Chalmers, Miami Heat, San Antonio Spurs, Shane Battier, Tim Duncan, Tony Parker

posted by David Friedman @ 6:20 AM

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Heat Force Seventh Game After Spurs Squander Late Fourth Quarter Lead

"Our world's out of order. All I see is missed opportunity."--Hall & Oates, "Missed Opportunity"

The San Antonio Spurs are renowned for their crisp execution and praised for their championship pedigree but in game six of the NBA Finals they squandered a golden opportunity to win the fifth championship of the Tim Duncan era--and now the Miami Heat are one victory away from claiming the second championship of the Big Three era. The Spurs led 94-89 with :28 left in regulation after Manu Ginobili split a pair of free throws, a time/score situation that simply requires making free throws, not giving the opposing team extra possessions via turnovers/offensive rebounds and not giving up open three pointers; if the Spurs had executed those basic fundamentals for less than 30 seconds then they would have won the 2013 NBA championship. Instead, the Spurs gave up an offensive rebound that led to a LeBron James three pointer, Kawhi Leonard split a pair of free throws, the Spurs gave up an offensive rebound that led to a Ray Allen three pointer and the game went to overtime after Tony Parker missed a tough, low percentage fadeaway jumper as time expired in regulation. The Spurs scored first in overtime and eventually took a three point lead but then they missed three straight shots and suffered a shot clock violation; the Heat finished the game with a 6-0 run and emerged with a 103-100 win. Game to game momentum has been non-existent in this series as the teams have alternated victories but this is a devastating loss for the Spurs and the last time a road team won game seven of the NBA Finals Jimmy Carter was President (Washington 105, Seattle 98 in 1978), so on Thursday the Spurs will face a daunting task.

LeBron James authored yet another Finals performance that will baffle both his critics and his admirers; he scored 14 points on 3-12 field goal shooting in the first three quarters and he seemed to be on pace for one of the worst performances by a reigning MVP in a possible elimination game--but then he took over the game in the fourth quarter, scoring 16 points on 7-11 field goal shooting as the Heat rallied from a 75-65 deficit. James finished with 32 points, 11 assists, 10 rebounds and three steals while shooting 11-26 from the field. He is just the fourth player in NBA Finals history to post a 30-10-10 triple double, joining Jerry West, James Worthy and Charles Barkley. Without James' poor shooting and tentative play in the first three quarters the Heat probably would not have trailed by as many as 13 points but without his forceful, determined and skillful play in the fourth quarter the Heat would not have been able to come back. So what should we make of James? He is a tremendously talented player who has had many great playoff performances, who sometimes becomes passive in the biggest games and who learned last year how to snap out of that passivity to reassert the aggressiveness that makes him unstoppable; no player and no defensive scheme can stop James when he attacks the hoop with force--period. Anyone who thinks that James did not quit versus Dallas during the 2011 NBA Finals and versus Boston in the 2010 NBA playoffs should watch the fourth quarter of game six of the 2013 NBA Finals: that is what LeBron James looks like when he is playing hard, when he is fully engaged mentally, physically and emotionally--and that kind of effort (not necessarily those numbers but that energy level, that kind of relentless determination to attack the defense) should be expected of James all the time, because that is what Michael Jordan and Kobe Bryant--the two wing players who led teams to multiple championships in the past 20 years--delivered. If LeBron James wants to be mentioned in the same breath with those players then that is the standard--not statistics, not awards but rather a consistently high effort level that uplifts his teammates and deflates the opposing team. Prior to the game, NBA TV's Greg Anthony said, "Everyone says how well they are defending LeBron. LeBron is defending LeBron." Does anyone really believe that Boris Diaw can stay in front of LeBron James? Does anyone really believe that any of the Spurs' wing players can guard LeBron James in the post? The Spurs' defensive scheme is to concede two point jump shots to James and hope that James either misses those shots or refuses to even take those shots; there is no plan to stop James when he drives to the basket with a full head of steam and looks to score instead of looking to pass: James did that for the whole fourth quarter and there was nothing that the Spurs could do to slow him down. If James does that in game seven then the Heat will win--and if he had done that more often in the first five games then this series would already have been over.

For a half, it looked like Tim Duncan was the player who was going to deliver a legendary performance; in the first 24 minutes he produced 25 points (a personal high for a half in a Finals game) on 11-13 field goal shooting and he grabbed eight rebounds as the Spurs took a 50-44 lead. Could the 37 year old Duncan really produce a 40-20 game to clinch his fifth title? The predictable answer to that question was, "No"; he finished with 30 points and 17 rebounds and did not score after the third quarter--but Anthony correctly noted that a 30-17 stat line is more than the Spurs could have reasonably expected from Duncan and the Spurs needed to receive more production from Tony Parker and Manu Ginobili. Parker scored 19 points and passed for eight assists but he shot just 6-23 from the field. Ginobili had nine points, four rebounds, three assists, a career-high eight turnovers and a mind-boggling -21 plus/minus rating, by far the worst of any player in this game.

Miami Coach Erik Spoelstra took a page out of Phil Jackson's book; when Jackson coached the Lakers against the Spurs he preferred to single cover Duncan and blanket San Antonio's perimeter players, figuring that Duncan would not score 40 or 50 points and that the Spurs could not win without getting huge production from their three point shooters. Duncan put up great numbers in game six against single coverage but the Spurs shot just 5-18 from three point range (.278). Danny Green--whose record-setting three point shooting in the first five games generated some Finals MVP consideration--scored three points on 1-7 field goal shooting, including 1-5 from three point range.

Meanwhile, the Heat shot 11-19 from behind the arc (.579), with Mario Chalmers leading the way (20 points, 4-5 three point shooting). Dwyane Wade had a quiet game (14 points on 6-15 field goal shooting, four rebounds, four assists) and he was on the bench when the Heat made their fourth quarter run. Chris Bosh had solid numbers (10 points, 11 rebounds, three steals, two blocked shots) but he had an impact far greater than those statistics suggest; his defensive versatility played a huge role as Miami outscored San Antonio 30-20 in the fourth quarter, he collected the offensive rebound that led to Allen's game-tying three pointer and he blocked Green's three point attempt as time expired in overtime. Allen finished with nine points on 3-8 field goal shooting but he scored seven crucial points late in the game: in addition to the huge three pointer at the end of regulation, he converted a drive to cut San Antonio's lead to 100-99 and he made two clutch free throws to put Miami up 103-100 with 1.9 seconds left in overtime.

The Spurs have to be very careful to make sure that game seven does not get out of hand, because it is easy to picture a scenario in which James runs wild (literally and figuratively), Chalmers hits some three pointers and the Heat cruise to victory; the Heat have played two game sevens in the Big Three era and they won both by double digits (99-76 versus Indiana in 2013, 101-88 versus Boston in 2012). On the other hand, if James plays like he did in the first three quarters of game six and the Spurs execute at their normal efficiency level then the Spurs could put themselves in position to transform their game six collapse from a huge missed opportunity into a historical footnote.

Labels: Chris Bosh, Danny Green, Dwyane Wade, LeBron James, Manu Ginobili, Miami Heat, Ray Allen, San Antonio Spurs, Tim Duncan, Tony Parker

posted by David Friedman @ 6:28 AM

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Manu the Magnificent: Revived Ginobili Spurs San Antonio to 3-2 Finals Lead

Manu Ginobili made his first start of the 2012-13 season very memorable, scoring 24 points and passing for 10 assists as the San Antonio Spurs defeated the Miami Heat 114-104 to move within one victory of seizing their fifth championship in the Tim Duncan era. The Spurs never trailed and they led by as many as 20 points before a late Heat rally made the final score more respectable. Tony Parker scored a game-high 26 points on 10-14 field goal shooting and he had five assists. Danny Green scored 24 points, grabbed six rebounds, blocked three shots and set the all-time NBA Finals record for most three pointers made in a single series (25, three more than Ray Allen made in the 2008 NBA Finals). Tim Duncan authored a very efficient performance, scoring 17 points on 7-10 field goal shooting, snaring a game-high 12 rebounds and blocking three shots; he controlled the paint at both ends of the court, drawing double-teams to make it easier for the Spurs' perimeter shooters to get open and challenging Heat players who drove to the basket. Kawhi Leonard added 16 points and eight rebounds; he is the modern-day Jamaal Wilkes--not exceptional in any skill set area but also not possessing any skill set weaknesses and very content to make winning plays at both ends of the court without drawing attention to himself.

LeBron James had a solid stat line--25 points, eight assists, six rebounds, four steals--but he shot just 8-22 from the field and never definitively asserted himself as the best player on the court. James continued the pattern he established in game four, attacking the hoop more than he did in the first three games of the series, but he missed several shots in the paint and he was much less effective in the second half when Boris Diaw proved to be a surprisingly effective primary defender against him. After sleepwalking through most of the postseason, Dwyane Wade played well for the second game in a row, scoring 25 points while also tying Ginobili for game-high honors with 10 assists. James and Wade shot just 10-26 in the paint, their worst combined field goal percentage in the paint during their three playoff runs together. Wade has struggled to finish at the rim throughout the postseason but James' misses are harder to explain; Green has demonstrated an uncanny ability to anticipate James' moves and either block James' shot or else force James to awkwardly alter his delivery but it was shocking to see James come up short on so many point blank shots: it is hard to believe that anyone can stop James if he consistently posts up and makes quick moves to the hoop (as opposed to holding the ball, waiting for a double-team and looking to pass).

Ray Allen contributed 21 points, including 15 points in the fourth quarter. Chris Bosh scored 16 points, tied James for the team lead with six rebounds and led the Heat with a +7 plus/minus rating; the plus/minus rating can be very "noisy" in small sample sizes but in this particular case I believe that the rating accurately reflects that Bosh had a positive impact even though his box score numbers do not jump off of the page: the Heat's offense revolves around James and Wade so much that the eight-time All-Star Bosh has been transformed into a glorified Horace Grant shooting spot up jumpers but Bosh is an efficient scorer who also is a mobile and versatile defender. It is interesting that the commentators who criticize Kobe Bryant for supposedly not passing the ball frequently enough to Pau Gasol do not have anything to say about the way that the Heat utilize Bosh on offense; Bosh was a more prolific scorer as the number one option in Toronto than Gasol was as the number one option in Memphis, so anyone who believes that the Lakers' offense should revolve around Gasol is being hypocritical if he does not say the same thing about Bosh and the Heat's offense (I do not think that the Lakers' offense should revolve around Gasol nor do I think that the Heat's offense should revolve around Bosh but I also think it is evident that playing with Bryant enhanced Gasol's individual numbers while leading to team success; the jury is still out about how playing with James and Wade has impacted Bosh).

Ginobili's 24 points not only set a season-high but also nearly matched his total for the first four games of the series (30). Ginobili made an immediate impact, hitting the first shot of the game--a long jumper just inside the three point line--before assisting on each of San Antonio's next two hoops and then making two free throws. Ginobili's performance--and the inevitable media reaction to it--reinforces a point that I made during the San Antonio-Golden State series: "As an injury prone third option, Ginobili is not expected to put up big scoring totals on a nightly basis; he can be the hero--like when he hit the game-winning shot in the series opener--but, no matter how poorly he plays, he will not be the goat unless he makes a serious mental error during a crucial possession down the stretch: in contrast, Tony Parker and Tim Duncan are expected to be highly productive every game and a team's first option (Parker and Duncan are options 1A and 1B for the Spurs) cannot have an off half, much less an off game. The first option is the focal point of his team's offense and the main concern for the opposing team's defense." Even in his prime, Ginobili was never a player who could average 40 mpg and consistently put up big numbers--and that is what "stat gurus" failed to understand when they looked at his per minute numbers/"advanced basketball statistics" and compared Ginobili to Kobe Bryant. Ginobili has always been a second or third option, a spark plug, a great resource to have but not a franchise player. The same is true of James Harden, which is why Houston's record barely improved despite all of the hype about Harden's impact this season. Ginobili's team can win a championship with him having one or two good games out of six or seven in the NBA Finals; Kobe Bryant's team could never win a championship under those conditions, nor can LeBron James' team win a championship under those conditions.

Miami Coach Erik Spoelstra changed his starting lineup for game four by replacing Udonis Haslem with Mike Miller and even though Miller did not make much of a statistical contribution his presence as a three point shooting threat spread out San Antonio's defense, creating driving lanes that James and Wade exploited. San Antonio Coach Gregg Popovich initially stayed with his regular starting lineup but after less than a minute elapsed he also went small, putting Gary Neal in for Tiago Splitter. Since late last season, the Heat have generally done well with their small lineups whether or not the opposing team also went small and this again proved to be the case in game four--but in game five the Spurs used their small lineup more effectively at both ends of the court: on defense, the slow-footed but crafty Diaw kept James out of the paint for the most part in the second half, while on offense the Spurs relentlessly attacked Miller by either isolating him or else setting screens that forced switches so that Miller had to guard a quick ballhandler who had a live dribble. By attacking Miller and exploiting the Heat's lack of size in the paint, the Spurs shredded the Heat's usually stout defense, shooting 42-70 (.600) from the field; that high field goal percentage mitigated the effect of the Spurs' 18 turnovers. The Heat gave up 114 points or more only three times during the 82 game regular season--and two of those three games went to overtime. This was just the third time in 21 playoff games that the Heat gave up more than 100 points--but it has happened twice in the past three games, as the Spurs scored 113 points in their game three win.

The Spurs are one of the few teams that can be equally effective with a big lineup or a small lineup; the Indiana Pacers' big lineup gave the Heat fits in the Eastern Conference Finals but the Heat closed out that series by relying heavily on James and Wade to relentlessly attack the hoop on offense while also creating havoc all over the court on defense: the Pacers were unable to impose their will with their big lineup nor were they able to put an effective small lineup on the court to match up with the Heat. The Spurs can play a methodical, half court game with Duncan and Splitter but they can also go small and play at a fast tempo; throughout game five, Popovich exhorted his team to push the ball up the court regardless of whether the Heat scored or not--and it is very rare that a Miami opponent is comfortable playing as fast or even faster than Miami.

In my series preview I picked the Heat but I also outlined the Spurs' correct anti-Heat game plan: "... take care of the basketball, utilize their advantage in the post with Tim Duncan and break down the Heat's perimeter defense with the driving of Tony Parker/Manu Ginobili; Duncan's post ups and the Parker/Ginobili drives will create open three point shots if the Heat are forced to collapse their defense into the paint. Defensively, the Spurs must force LeBron James and Dwyane Wade to shoot contested two point jump shots." The Spurs have executed this plan well enough to win three games. Before the series began I predicted that the Spurs would have to win twice in Miami to dethrone the 2012 NBA Champions and that is indeed the case; I am still skeptical that the Heat will lose two games at home in one series but I am a bit less skeptical now than I was before the series started.

Green is the Spurs' leading scorer in the Finals (18.0 ppg) and he has set three point shooting records but he is not a one-dimensional player: he also ranks third on the team in rebounding (4.0 rpg) and second in blocked shots (1.6 bpg); barring a significant performance by another Spur in game six and/or game seven, if San Antonio wins the championship then Green has to receive serious consideration for Finals MVP (I think that Duncan's impact is almost as underrated this time as it was in the 2007 Finals but I realize that unless he puts up at least 30 points and 15 rebounds in the clinching game he will not receive any Finals MVP votes). One could make a joke about Green having to leave Cleveland and get away from LeBron James to reach his full potential--but, in all seriousness, think about what a stunning turn of events we may be on the verge of witnessing (to borrow a word formerly used to describe James' performances in Cleveland): this would be like Mike McGee leaving the Lakers in the mid-1980s, landing with another team and then winning Finals MVP honors in a head to head duel with Magic Johnson or like Rick Carlisle doing the same thing versus Larry Bird or like Craig Hodges taking a Finals MVP away from Michael Jordan. If this happens it would not nullify all of James' great accomplishments--but, to put it mildly, it would not enhance James' legacy.

Labels: Chris Bosh, Danny Green, Dwyane Wade, LeBron James, Manu Ginobili, Miami Heat, San Antonio Spurs, Tim Duncan, Tony Parker

posted by David Friedman @ 4:19 AM

11 comments