20 Second Timeout

Jalen Brunson Erupts for 45 Points as Knicks Beat Spurs 94-90 to Capture First NBA Title Since 1973

The 2026 NBA Finals pattern is familiar by now: the San Antonio Spurs take a double digit first quarter lead before the New York Knicks storm back to win a close game, and that happened again in game five. The Knicks' 94-90 victory enabled them to win their first NBA title since 1973. The Spurs raced out to an 18-8 first quarter lead and were ahead 31-15 at the 8:29 mark of the second quarter before the Knicks slashed the margin to just 42-37 at halftime. The Spurs were on top 70-55 with just 2:25 to go in the third quarter and still had a 10 point lead (83-73) as late as the 7:43 mark of the fourth quarter, but the Knicks outscored the Spurs 21-7 the rest of the way. The Knicks are the first NBA champions with four comeback wins of at least 10 points each in the NBA Finals in the past 50 years. 

As is often the case in closeout games, neither team shot well: the Knicks shot 31-87 (.356) from the field, and the Spurs shot 33-86 (.384) from the field. The biggest difference in a hard fought game was Jalen Brunson's efficient and clutch scoring: Brunson scored 45 points on 14-27 field goal shooting to earn the 2026 Bill Russell NBA Finals MVP after averaging 32.6 ppg, 4.6 apg, 4.2 rpg and 2.0 spg in the NBA Finals with shooting splits of .421/.389/.860. Brunson is the first Knick to score at least 40 points in an NBA Finals game, and the first player to score at least 15 points in the fourth quarter of an NBA Finals-clinching win since Michael Jordan in 1998. He also tied the record for most points scored in a Finals-clinching win on the road, and he tied Jordan for the third most points in any Finals-clinching win, trailing only Giannis Antetokounmpo's 50 in 2021 and Bob Pettit's 50 in 1958. 

Brunson was the only Knick to make more than half of his field goal attempts as his teammates combined to shoot just 17-60 (.283) from the field. Mikal Bridges was the Knicks' second leading scorer with 14 points on 5-10 field goal shooting, and he had a team-high four assists. Josh Hart added 13 points on 4-11 field goal shooting and a team-high 11 rebounds while accumulating a team-high +15 plus/minus number. OG Anunoby had 11 points on 3-11 field goal shooting, eight rebounds, and a game-high tying three steals. For the series, Anunoby ranked second on the team in scoring (21.2 ppg) and led the Knicks in blocked shots (1.4 bpg) while averaging 4.8 rpg and posting shooting splits of .525/.500/.867. 

Brunson and Anunoby were the only Knicks who scored a point until the 9:04 mark of the second quarter, when Karl-Anthony Towns made his only field goal of the game to cut the Spurs' lead to 28-15. Towns finished with just two points on 1-7 field goal shooting while committing a game-high five turnovers, but he also had 10 rebounds and a game-high tying three steals before fouling out after playing just 23 minutes. Towns averaged 13.0 ppg (third on the team), 10.6 rpg (first on the team), 2.4 apg, and 1.0 bpg in the NBA Finals with shooting splits of .490/.333/1.000.

The Knicks did not get much production from their bench with the notable exception of Mitchell Robinson, who had 10 rebounds in 20 minutes, including an important offensive rebound with 22.2 seconds remaining in the fourth quarter and the Knicks clinging to a 91-88 lead.

Dylan Harper led the Spurs with 25 points on 10-19 field goal shooting in 31 minutes off of the bench. He also had five rebounds, four assists, and no turnovers, so his -12 plus/minus number is paradoxical and an example of why plus/minus is not always meaningful in small sample sizes. 

Victor Wembanyama had 19 points, a game-high 14 rebounds, and a game-high five blocked shots, but he shot just 7-19 from the field--including 1-6 from three point range--and he was almost invisible in the fourth quarter: three points on 1-5 field goal shooting, two rebounds, no blocked shots. He looked like he ran out of gas, and that will be an interesting trend to monitor throughout his career: will Wembanyama stay healthy enough and become fit enough to not just survive a long regular season and a deep playoff run but to be dominant late in games when his team needs him the most? Wembanyama averaged 26.0 ppg, 11.2 rpg, 2.6 apg, and 3.6 bpg in his first NBA Finals with shooting splits of .423/.273/.786. He ranked second on the Spurs with 33 three point field goal attempts, and that number is too high for a player who can be so dominant in the paint, particularly considering that he shot very poorly from beyond the arc in this series.

Julian Champagnie (14 points, seven rebounds) and Devin Vassell (12 points, seven rebounds) had solid performances, but the Spurs' starting backcourt struggled: De'Aaron Fox had seven points on 3-15 field goal shooting plus a game-high five assists, and Stephon Castle contributed just six points on 1-10 field goal shooting along with five rebounds and four assists. Castle ranked third on the team in scoring in the Finals (14.6 ppg) but shot just .377 from the field, and Fox tied Vassell for fourth in scoring (12.8 ppg) while shooting .343 from the field. Vassell was the Spurs' only rotation player who shot better than .500 from the field (.537) in the Finals.

The teams combined to miss their first six field goal attempts of the game, foreshadowing how this contest would be more about grit than about high octane offense. Wembanyama opened the scoring with a fast break dunk at the 9:48 mark of the first quarter (the official play by play sheet says that Wembanyama made the shot at 9:44). Brunson answered with a three pointer, but the Knicks started the game shooting 2-13 from the field and they trailed 23-13 by the end of the first quarter. The Knicks' 13 first quarter points tied for the second fewest first quarter points in an NBA Finals game in the shot clock era, which dates back to the 1954-55 season. Harper led the Spurs with seven first quarter points, while Wembanyama stuffed the box score with six points, four rebounds, and three blocked shots. Brunson paced the Knicks with eight points on 3-6 field goal shooting, but his teammates scored just five points on 1-16 field goal shooting; the notion that the Knicks were just 36 minutes of game time away from becoming NBA champions seemed farfetched if not preposterous--until one recalled that the Knicks erased a 29 point second half deficit in game four. 

Neither team shot well in the second quarter, but the Knicks scored 24 points on 9-22 (.409) field goal shooting to chip away at the Spurs' lead. With their season on the line, the Spurs managed just 19 second quarter points on 6-23 (.231) field goal shooting, and they needed Vassell's fadeaway jumper at the buzzer to have a 42-37 halftime lead. Brunson led both teams with 16 first half points, but he was just warming up for a fantastic finish. Harper (11 points) was the only Spur who scored in double figures in the first half.

The Spurs scored 30 third quarter points on 11-20 (.550) field goal shooting, but Brunson kept the Knicks in contact by scoring 14 of his team's 28 third quarter points. A play that could have been a turning point happened at the 5:29 mark of the third quarter. After Brunson drilled a top of the key three pointer to slash the Spurs' lead to 59-53, his left foot landed on top of Wembanyama's right foot and Brunson slumped to the floor holding his left ankle. By rule, that should have been deemed a flagrant foul on Wembanyama for interfering with Brunson's landing area--and that rule is in place because of the dirty play by Zaza Pachulia that put Kawhi Leonard out of action in game one of the 2017 Western Conference Finals when Leonard's Spurs enjoyed a 23 point lead versus the Golden State Warriors. The Warriors rallied to win that game, and then swept the next three games with Leonard unable to play due to the ankle injury he suffered from the Pachulia foul. Imagine if Brunson had not been able to play for the rest of game five or beyond; that could have altered not just the game but the entire series. Also, if Wembanyama had been called for a flagrant foul then based on his total flagrant foul points in the 2026 playoffs he would have been automatically suspended for game six of the NBA Finals if game six had been necessary (or for his next regular season game since the Knicks won game five). Brunson admitted after the game that he was hurting but that he blocked out the pain to focus on finishing the job. The NBA must do a better job of consistently enforcing its rules, particularly rules that relate to player safety. 

The fourth quarter was the Brunson show: 15 points on 4-6 field goal shooting to nearly match the Spurs' scoring output in the final 12 minutes (18 points) by himself. Brunson hit three free throws with 3:40 remaining to give the Knicks their first lead (86-85) since the 7:49 mark of the first quarter. The Spurs later tied the score once, but they never led again. Late game free throw shooting was a problem for both teams, but more so for the Spurs because they trailed and needed to score quickly. In the final 26.1 seconds, Hart, Anunoby, and Bridges each split a pair of free throws before Harper missed two free throws. Anunoby finally sealed the win by making one out of two free throws with 7.7 seconds left, after which Wembanyama missed a long three pointer. 

In my NBA Finals Preview, I picked the Spurs to win in six games but said that the Knicks could beat the Spurs if the Knicks won the possession game by outrebounding the Spurs and by committing fewer turnovers than the Spurs. The Knicks outscored the Spurs 522-510 in the series, and they won the possession battle both on the boards (226-222) and by committing fewer turnovers (60 for the Spurs, 56 for the Knicks). It is interesting to note that although Wembanyama was the top shot blocker in the series by a wide margin (18-7 over Anunoby), overall the Spurs led the Knicks in blocked shots by just 29-24. Even though the Knicks won the series 4-1, this was a closely contested series decided by the Knicks' ability to be more efficient in the clutch moments and by the Knicks' slight edge in the possession game.

Wembanyama is portrayed as the player of the future and the Spurs are talked about as the team of the future, but all of that is just speculation; the reality is that the Knicks are the team of right now, and a team that will be remembered in New York for at least as long as the 53 year NBA title drought that they ended.

Mike Brown has been doubted and unfairly criticized by media members, but now he has an NBA championship ring as a head coach to add to the four championships he earned as an assistant coach with San Antonio (2003) and Golden State (2017, 2018, 2022). 

Jalen Brunson has been doubted throughout his NBA career, but he silenced his critics with his clutch shooting and his focused leadership; in 2024, I pointed out that most 6-4 and under guards are not able to lead a team to an NBA title while suggesting that Brunson may prove to be the exception to that general rule. Hall of Famer Becky Hammon was perhaps the most vocal of many commentators who questioned whether Brunson could be the best player on an NBA championship team. Asked what he would say to his critics after winning an NBA Finals MVP and an NBA title, Brunson did not ask for or demand respect but instead he replied, "I didn't respond to them then, and I'm damn sure not going to respond to them now." 

Karl-Anthony Towns has not only been doubted; he has been mocked for his playing style and for his tendency to accumulate fouls in bunches, but during this season and this playoff run he displayed his versatile basketball talents and his willingness to do whatever his team needs him to do to win, even at the cost of his personal statistics. In moments of triumph, some people express bitterness or defiance, but Towns took a different route, thanking his former teammates with the Minnesota Timberwolves for helping him grow as a player. 

The Knicks overcame the doubters to beat a talented team and win a championship that will forever have a special place in the annals of New York sports lore. 

Labels: Dylan Harper, Jalen Brunson, Karl-Anthony Towns, New York Knicks, OG Anunoby, San Antonio Spurs, Stephon Castle, Victor Wembanyama

posted by David Friedman @ 4:01 AM

6 comments

Anunoby Game-Winning Tip-In Caps Largest Comeback in NBA Finals History as Knicks Take 3-1 Lead Over Spurs

Depending on your perspective, game four of the NBA Finals either featured the greatest comeback or the greatest collapse in NBA Finals history; the San Antonio Spurs led the New York Knicks 81-52 with 9:40 remaining in the third quarter, but OG Anunoby's tip-in of Jalen Brunson's missed three pointer with 1.2 seconds left in the fourth quarter proved to be the game-winning shot as the Knicks prevailed 107-106 to take a 3-1 series lead. The Knicks accomplished the largest comeback in NBA Finals history, and the largest halftime comeback in NBA playoff history. This series has repeatedly featured wild momentum swings--with double digit leads repeatedly being built and squandered by both teams--but at the end the games have consistently been close, and this is just the second NBA Finals with multiple games decided by just one point, with the first being the 1975 Finals when Rick Barry's Golden State Warriors swept the Washington Bullets. 

Brunson scored a game-high 36 points on 12-25 field goal shooting while dishing for a game-high tying seven assists, grabbing five rebounds, and swiping a team-high three steals in a game-high 44 minutes. Anunoby had 33 points on 10-15 field goal shooting, including 7-9 from three point range. His blocked shot on De'Aaron Fox' layup attempt with 11.1 seconds remaining in the fourth quarter gave the Knicks the opportunity to take the lead and win the game. Karl-Anthony Towns was the Knicks' only other double figure scorer with 13 points plus a team-high 10 rebounds and a game-high +17 plus/minus numbe. Special mention must be made of reserve guard Jose Alvarado, the Knicks' fourth leading scorer with eight points on 3-4 field goal shooting in 16 minutes. Alvarado tied Brunson and Josh Hart (six points, eight rebounds, six assists, two steals) for the team's second best plus/minus number (+11). Alvarado scored all of his points in the fourth quarter when he took the place of the ineffective Mikal Bridges, shooting 3-3 from the field while leading the team with three assists. In the fourth quarter, Brunson (nine points), Anunoby (eight points), and Alvarado (eight points) combined to outscore the Spurs by themselves.

Victor Wembanyama scored a team-high 24 points and corralled a game-high 13 rebounds, but he shot just 9-25 from the field, including 2-8 from three point range. As the Spurs collapsed in the second half, Wembanyama had just eight points on 3-14 field goal shooting. Dylan Harper contributed 21 points off of the bench with a team-high +12 plus/minus number. Fox added 18 points on 6-16 field goal shooting while passing for a game-high tying seven assists. Stephon Castle had 13 points, five rebounds, and five assists, but he shot just 2-7 from the field. 

Saying that a game was a "tale of two halves" is an old cliche, but that is a precise description of this game. 

The first half tale saw the Spurs leading 76-49 after shooting 28-47 (.595) from the field and committing just two turnovers while holding the Knicks to 15-37 (.405) field goal shooting with seven turnovers. The Spurs shot 14-26 (.538) from beyond the arc while setting NBA Finals records for most three pointers in a half and biggest halftime lead by a visiting team (which was also the third biggest halftime lead by any NBA Finals team). Four Spurs scored at least 13 first half points: Victor Wembanyama (16), Dylan Harper (15), Devin Vassell (15), and De'Aaron Fox (13). Brunson led the Knicks with 19 points and Anunoby added 14 points, but the other three New York starters had just 14 points while seven New York reserves combined to score two points.

The second half tale was even more improbable than the Spurs' first half dominance, as the Knicks outscored the Spurs 58-30 while shooting 21-41 (.512) from the field and limiting the Spurs to 8-39 (.205 field goal shooting). The Spurs shot 3-17 (.176) from beyond the arc in perhaps the ultimate example of why high volume three point shooting is a high variance style of play; although "stat gurus" praise high volume three point shooting as the paragon of supposedly efficient offensive play, the reality is that teams that rely too heavily on three point shooting make themselves susceptible to long scoring droughts, particularly in the playoffs against tough-minded defensive teams. Charles Barkley of ABC/ESPN called the Spurs' second half three point barrage some of the dumbest basketball that he has seen in the 40-plus years that he has been involved with the NBA. Barkley is prone to hyperbole, but considering what was at stake and the fact that the Spurs have a 7-4 player who is supposed to be the future of the league, it is not extreme to suggest that the Spurs should have at least considered the option of slowing down, feeding the ball to Wembanyama in the paint (or at least inside the three point arc), and forcing the Knicks to guard him possession after possession. It cannot be emphasized enough that when the Spurs built their huge first half lead they outscored the Knicks in the paint 24-18, which indicates that the Spurs attacked the paint and then created rhythm three point shots by collapsing the defense. This is in marked contrast to the second half, when the Knicks outscored the Spurs in the paint 16-4.

This game provides a great example of why teams should not get frustrated by officiating or stop playing hard even when everything seems to be falling apart. Towns, who is often prone to collect fouls at an alarming rate, had two fouls in the first 1:02 of the game, resulting in him missing most of the first quarter. His second foul was initially whistled against Wembanyama, but then after a coach's challenge it was determined that Towns had committed an offensive foul on his drive to the hoop by hooking Wembanyama. The Spurs were already up 5-2 when Towns was replaced by Mitchell Robinson, and then the Spurs went on a 7-0 run to take a 12-2 lead. The Spurs were up by as much as 21 points in the first quarter, and were on top 41-22 entering the second quarter. 

New York coach Mike Brown shuffled 12 players into the game in the first half as the Knicks dealt with foul trouble and struggled to find a five man unit that could be effective at either end of the court, but the Spurs still won the second quarter, 35-27.

It was not immediately apparent in the third quarter how drastically this game would shift. Nearly four minutes into the quarter, the Spurs were still up 81-59. The Spurs' lead fluctuated between 16 and 20 points for most of the third quarter before Brunson's feed to Robinson for a dunk cut the margin to 87-72 at the 2:43 mark. Vassell answered with a three pointer to nudge the lead back up to 18, but Anunoby closed the third quarter scoring with a trey to trim the deficit to 90-75 entering the final stanza. Coming back from 29 points down in the NBA Finals sounds impossible, but erasing a 15 point lead in the fourth quarter is quite doable, particularly considering that the Knicks beat the Cleveland Cavaliers in the first game of the second round after trailing by 22 points with 7:52 left in the fourth quarter. 

In the fourth quarter, the Spurs nearly pulled off a collective "Harden" (referring to when a player--usually Harden--has more turnovers than field goals made), shooting 4-19 (.211) from the field while committing four turnovers. The Spurs still led 104-97 with 3:31 to go after Wembanyama made a jump shot, but the Knicks went on an 8-0 run in the next 2:09 to take their first lead of the game on a Brunson floater. Castle's two free throws put the Spurs up 106-105 with 30.3 seconds remaining, and it still seemed possible that the Knicks' huge comeback would be for naught. Brunson missed a floater in the lane with 16.1 seconds remaining, and Fox pushed the ball up the court after snaring the rebound. Fox could have held on to the ball to run the clock down and force the Knicks to foul him, but instead he attempted a layup with 11.1 seconds remaining. He later explained that his idea was to put the Spurs up by three points so that the Knicks would need a three pointer just to tie the game. Anunoby's chase down block gave the Knicks one last chance. Alvarado advanced the ball past midcourt before the Knicks called timeout. After the timeout, Anunoby inbounded the ball to Brunson and cut hard to the hoop. Brunson's three point shot looked good but was just off, and then Anunoby made the tip-in that will be replayed for decades (particularly if the Knicks win the championship). The Spurs called time out to advance the ball but were not even able to get off a shot in the final 1.2 seconds. 

After steamrolling the Knicks 41-22 in the first quarter, the Spurs got trampled 32-16 in the fourth quarter. The NBA is often a first quarter league--a point that I have repeatedly made, and that ABC/ESPN play by play announcer Mike Breen mentioned early in the third quarter--but in this game the fourth quarter proved to be decisive.

Casual fans may not understand how long an NBA game is, or how long a playoff series is. This comeback was unprecedented, but in general a 48 minute game provides plenty of time for a comeback, and an NBA best out of seven series is far different from a 40 minute NCAA tournament game in which the better team can go cold for five or 10 minutes and be eliminated by an inferior team. In the 2026 NBA Finals, the Spurs have had big runs, often seemed to have the much-talked about "momentum," and enjoyed a lead in the final two minutes of all four games, but now they trail 3-1 and face a daunting task to defeat a resilient Knicks team that never loses faith and never quits. The Spurs have the most talented player in the series, but they have not figured out how to consistently exploit Wembanyama's height, reach, agility, and shooting touch; meanwhile, in game four the Knicks did a masterful job of utilizing matchups and switches to drag Wembanyama out of the paint on defense to clear driving lanes for scores in the paint and for kick out passes for open three pointers.

Labels: Dylan Harper, Jalen Brunson, Jose Alvarado, Karl-Anthony Towns, New York Knicks, OG Anunoby, San Antonio Spurs, Stephon Castle, Victor Wembanyama

posted by David Friedman @ 3:22 AM

3 comments

Put Away the Brooms, New York: Spurs Win Game Three, End the Knicks' Sweep Dreams

For the third straight game, the San Antonio Spurs took a double digit first quarter lead versus the New York Knicks, but this time the Spurs did not collapse in the fourth quarter's final moments and they posted a 115-111 win to cut the Knicks' NBA Finals lead to 2-1. The Knicks--whose 13 game playoff winning streak ended--dreamed of sweeping their way to their first NBA title since 1973, but now the Spurs are one win away from reclaiming homecourt advantage. 

The Knicks outrebounded the Spurs 46-37, but the Spurs countered by committing just eight turnovers while the Knicks had 13 turnovers. The Knicks only had two more fouls than the Spurs (23-21) but the timing of fouls is important: the Spurs got into the bonus early enough to earn 32 free throw attempts compared to 22 free throw attempts for the Knicks, and the Spurs made 25 free throws while the Knicks made 18 free throws. 

In his postgame remarks, New York coach Mike Brown emphasized that the Spurs "played great" and that he does not often complain about officiating, but he pointed out that in the second half the Spurs attempted 24 free throws while the Knicks attempted eight free throws. Calling out officiating and free throw disparities is a time-honored NBA coaching tradition, particularly during the playoffs, but suffice it to say that the Knicks would be better served figuring out how to not fall behind early in each game, before foul trouble or free throws are relevant. However, I don't blame Brown for complaining; every coach does it not only because they think that it works but because it also generates an "us against them" mentality in the locker room by taking the focus off of what the players could have done better. 

My main issue with the game three officiating echoes an observation made by ABC/ESPN commentators Richard Jefferson and Tim Legler: the officials let a lot of contact go early in the game only to then call things more closely later in the game, leaving players to rightly wonder why the same stuff that they got away with in the first quarter was whistled later in the game. I have played a lot of basketball, and I believe that it is a player's obligation to adapt to how the officials decide to call the game--but once the officials set the tone then the officials should be consistent throughout the game. I don't want to make this whole recap about officiating, so I will conclude this portion of my analysis by doing something I rarely do: agree with Draymond Green, who said during ESPN's postgame show that the officials generally favor the more aggressive team, and in game three the Spurs were the aggressor from the start of the game.

Victor Wembanyama scored a game-high tying 32 points on 11-18 field goal shooting while also grabbing eight rebounds, dishing for six assists, blocking three shots, snaring two steals, and committing just one turnover. He was selective and efficient (2-4) from beyond the arc. Wembanyama is the second youngest player to have at least 30 points, at least five rebounds, and at least five assists in an NBA Finals game, trailing only Magic Johnson, who accomplished the feat in the 1980 NBA Finals as a 20 year old rookie en route to leading the L.A. Lakers to the NBA title while winning the NBA Finals MVP. Stephon Castle added 23 points on 8-14 field goal shooting along with five rebounds, five assists, and two steals. Dylan Harper shot just 5-18 from the field, but he made a significant impact off of the bench with 13 points, a game-high tying nine rebounds, four assists, and no turnovers in 32 minutes. De'Aaron Fox had 12 points on 4-14 field goal shooting, but he made his impact felt with a game-high eight assists and two blocked shots. Julian Champagnie (12 points, three assists) and Devin Vassell (11 points, four rebounds) made solid contributions.

Jalen Brunson had a game-high tying 32 points on 11-25 field goal shooting with five rebounds, five assists, and a game-high five turnovers. OG Anunoby scored 28 points while shooting 9-13 from the field, and he had five rebounds and two blocked shots. Josh Hart had another excellent all-around game: 16 points, game-high tying nine rebounds, five assists. Karl-Anthony Towns--the best player in the series through the first two games--had 11 points, eight rebounds, and just one assist. During much of the Knicks' winning streak, they ran their offense through Towns as a distributor who also contributed timely baskets. In this game he only had 10 field goal attempts, so he was not involved enough in the offense as either a scorer or a playmaker. Jordan Clarkson provided a spark with 10 points in 13 minutes off of the bench, but that type of contribution is only noticed during a win and tends to be overlooked in a loss.

Although both teams made runs throughout the game, the Spurs set the overall tone early, reinforcing an important point: the NBA is often called a fourth quarter league, but it is really a first quarter league because in the first quarter the winning team can identify and exploit matchup advantages that will work throughout the game. Wembanyama had nine points on 4-4 field goal shooting in the first five minutes of the game, and he did all of that work in close proximity to the hoop. Yes, he can make three pointers, but he is most effective when he attacks the hoop as his first option. Defensively, the Spurs positioned Wembanyama so that he spent most of his time protecting the paint, with a secondary responsibility of closing out to shooters on the baseline, instead of assigning him to chase Towns around the perimeter. The Spurs led by as much as 12 in the first quarter, and they were ahead 33-22 heading into the second quarter.

The Knicks set a franchise NBA Finals record by pouring in 42 points in the second quarter, with Anunoby (11 points) and Brunson (10 points) doing much of the damage. Brunson's three pointer at the 4:18 mark gave the Knicks their first lead of the game, 50-49. Castle had 11 of the Spurs' 24 second quarter points. The Knicks led 64-57 at halftime, and noted prognosticator Charles Barkley declared during the halftime show that the game was over, joking with Shaquille O'Neal that he would bet his house that the Knicks would win. 

The Knicks started the third quarter sloppily with turnovers on their first two possessions leading to six straight San Antonio points on a Champagnie drive, a Champagnie three pointer, and a Champagnie free throw after Brunson was called for a flagrant foul for a reckless close out on Champagnie's trey. The Spurs took their first lead of the second half, 72-71, on a Vassell three pointer with 7:26 left in the third quarter. The rest of the third quarter was closely contested, with the Spurs on top 92-91 heading into the final stanza.

Considering how the previous two games ended, the Knicks must have felt ecstatic about the prospect of yet another game going down to the wire. The Spurs did not lead by more than eight points during the fourth quarter, but they never let the Knicks tie the score; the Knicks had a chance to all but clinch the championship by winning the fourth quarter to win game three, but instead they scored 20 fourth quarter points on 7-27 (.259) field goal shooting. The Spurs shot almost as poorly (6-21, .286) from the field, but they shot 10-10 from the free throw line. Every play that seemed to give the Knicks momentum only served to keep the game close without pushing the Knicks over the top. For example, Wembanyama hit a three pointer to give the Spurs a 103-93 lead and the officials called a foul on Mitchell Robinson to create a four point play opportunity--but the Knicks challenged the call, and the officials correctly ruled that Keldon Johnson had pushed Robinson into Wembanyama, thus wiping out not only Wembanyama's potential free throw attempt but also his three point shot. After Brunson's driving layup cut the Spurs' advantage to 100-95, it looked like the Knicks were in position for another late game rally. The Knicks got as close as 113-111 on Anunoby's three pointer with 9.4 seconds remaining, but Castle calmly answered with two free throws to keep the game out of reach. Brunson led both teams with 12 fourth quarter points on 4-7 field goal shooting, but the Spurs had built just enough of a cushion that his late game heroics did not save the Knicks.

The game to game overreactions by pundits are amusing; perhaps the overheated rhetoric generates clicks or views or ratings, but the reality is that each game in a playoff series has a distinct character and in the long run the team that best exploits matchup advantages will prevail four times. Even though the Knicks won the first two games on the road, it is not like they dominated the Spurs from start to finish; the Knicks overcame a 14 point deficit to win game one, and they won game two after squandering a 14 point lead. 

It should be obvious that these teams are closely matched and that each team has the ability to win on the road. The Spurs have the most talented player (Wembanyama) plus a fleet of young and athletic perimeter players who are harassing Brunson into a low field goal percentage much like they harassed two-time regular season MVP Shai Gilgeous-Alexander into a low field goal percentage in the Western Conference Finals. The Knicks have more playoff experience, a versatile big man (Towns) who is capable of challenging Wembanyama at both ends of the court, and a crafty lead guard (Brunson) who rises to the occasion in close games.

Instead of reasoned analysis of matchup advantages, offensive sets, and defensive schemes, we will now spend the next two days hearing about how the Knicks are in trouble, are lucky that they are not down 3-0, and are being outcoached, outhustled, and/or outdone in terms of the vaunted "in game adjustments"--and the people making those bold pronouncements will be the same ones who declared before game three that the Knicks are on the verge of sweeping the series. It is a lot easier to ride emotional waves than to analyze what is happening while it is happening.

Labels: De'Aaron Fox, Jalen Brunson, Josh Hart, Karl-Anthony Towns, New York Knicks, OG Anunoby, San Antonio Spurs, Stephon Castle, Victor Wembanyama

posted by David Friedman @ 2:56 AM

4 comments

Knicks Stun Spurs to Take 2-0 NBA Finals Lead

In a contentious and physical game during which each team enjoyed a double digit lead, the New York Knicks beat the San Antonio Spurs 105-104 thanks to a Jalen Brunson free throw followed by Victor Wembanyama's missed jump shot. The Knicks shot worse than .420 from the field for the second consecutive game (37-89, .416) but they outrebounded the Spurs 44-42, they beat the Spurs in second chance points 14-9, and they narrowly won the turnover battle (16-15) in a game during which every possession mattered. The Knicks have won 13 consecutive playoff games, the second longest postseason winning streak in NBA history, trailing only the 15 game winning streak authored by the 2017 Golden State Warriors. 

Karl-Anthony Towns led the Knicks with 21 points on 8-12 field goal shooting plus a game-high 13 rebounds. He also had four assists, and a game-high tying +11 plus/minus number. He found an excellent balance of attacking the hoop, stretching the defense (he shot 3-5 from beyond the arc), and picking apart the Spurs' defense with pinpoint passing. His combination of size, strength, and agility flustered Wembanyama.

Game one hero Jalen Brunson contributed 20 points, a game-high tying six assists, five rebounds, and a game-high five steals. He shot just 7-25 from the field and had a game-high tying four turnovers, but he had a team-high seven fourth quarter points as the Knicks scored just enough to hold off the surging Spurs, who won the fourth quarter 29-21. Brunson had a -10 plus/minus number.

The oft-criticized Mikal Bridges made his impact felt all over the court with 20 points on 8-13 field goal shooting, six rebounds, and a game-high tying six assists. The Knicks' other double figure scorers were OG Anunoby (17 points, four rebounds, three assists, two blocked shots) and Landry Shamet (13 points, +9 plus/minus number). Jose Alvorado shot 0-4 from the field but he contributed three rebounds and two assists in 10 minutes while matching Towns' game-high +11 plus/minus number.

Wembanyama overcame a sluggish first half (seven points on 2-4 field goal shooting) to finish with a game-high 29 points on 11-21 field goal shooting plus a team-high tying nine rebounds, and a game-high four blocked shots; however, his late game lapses--including a careless turnover followed by fouling Brunson for what turned out to be the game-winning free throw--will be the most indelible images of his performance, along with his missed jump shot in the waning seconds. He had a game-high tying four turnovers.

De'Aaron Fox had 20 points on 8-12 field goal shooting, five assists and a game-high tying four turnovers. This was his first game with at least 20 points since he scored 21 points in San Antonio's 139-109 game six series-clinching win over Minnesota on May 15. Dylan Harper had a very good game off of the bench: 15 points on 6-12 field goal shooting, six rebounds, and a game-high +12 plus/minus number in 32 minutes. The Spurs need more from Stephon Castle, who scored 14 points on 5-14 field goal shooting with four assists, a game-high tying four turnovers, and a -6 plus/minus number. Devin Vassell filled up the boxscore with 14 points on 4-9 field goal shooting, a team-high tying nine rebounds, five assists, and no turnovers.

In the first quarter, the Spurs aggressively drove to the hoop to score, and to pass to open shooters when the defense collapsed. This attacking mentality put a lot of pressure on the Knicks to defend against the drive, recover to perimeter shooters, and still be mindful of Wembanyama's looming presence as a potential driver, cutter, lob threat, and offensive rebounder. Near the end of the first quarter, Wembanyama faked a three pointer, and then drove to the hoop for a layup, but overall--as ABC/ESPN game analysts Richard Jefferson and Tim Legler both noted--he "drifted" to the perimeter too much in the first half. The Spurs led 34-25 after the first 12 minutes. Fox scored nine first quarter points, which is more than he scored in all of game one (seven points on 3-13 field goal shooting). Julian Champagnie, who did not score in the final three quarters, had eight first quarter points.

In addition to their efficient first quarter shooting (13-20, .650), the Spurs applied relentless pressure against New York's ballhandlers to slow down the game, drain the shot clock, and disrupt New York's offensive rhythm. The Knicks shot 8-21 (.381) from the field in the first quarter, and seemed to be hanging on for dear life--but the Knicks turned things around in the second quarter, outscoring the Spurs 31-18, utilizing a stifling defense that held the Spurs to 4-21 (.190) field goal shooting. The Knicks ended the first half with a flurry: Bridges nailed a corner three pointer after excellent ball movement to trim San Antonio's lead to 48-47, and then Shamet drove to the hoop to give the Knicks their first lead of the game, 49-48, at the 3:39 mark. Vassell answered with a four point play, but then the Knicks scored the final seven points of the half on a Brunson layup, a Bridges floater off of a deft feed from Towns, and a Towns three pointer from the left corner. The Knicks were up 56-52 at halftime after trailing by as much as 12 points in the second quarter. 

During the halftime show, ABC/ESPN commentators Charles Barkley and Shaquille O'Neal debated if Wembanyama was "in shock" (Barkley) or just not playing with enough energy (O'Neal). Wembanyama had a big third quarter (12 points on 5-8 field goal shooting), but the Knicks used a balanced attack to outscore the Spurs 28-23 to carry an 84-75 advantage into the final stanza.

It looked like the Knicks had knocked out the Spurs after Anunoby's driving dunk over Wembanyama put the Knicks up 97-83 at the 6:04 mark of the fourth quarter--the Knicks' biggest lead of the game--but the Spurs answered with a 14-0 run in the next 3:05. During that stretch, the Knicks' offense looked disjointed, and their usually stout defense crumbled. The Knicks had overcome a 14 point third quarter deficit to win game one, and it seemed as if the Spurs were about to return the favor--but the Knicks are a very resilient team. After the Spurs tied the score, the Knicks' ensuing possession ended with an out of bounds call in favor of the Spurs, but after a coach's challenge the call was reversed to a proximate foul on Champagnie as Anunoby attempted a three point shot. Anunoby made all three free throws to end the Spurs' run and put the Knicks up, 100-97. Those were the Knicks' first free throws in the second half. Some players and teams waste energy focusing on which fouls are called or not called, but the Knicks stay focused on playing. 

After the teams traded baskets, the Knicks had a strange possession in which Brunson never touched the ball while Bridges dribbled the clock down before turning the ball over. The Spurs then took a 104-102 lead on Wembanyama's three point play with 57.3 seconds remaining. Brunson's patented fadeaway jumper tied the score at 104 at the 39.3 second mark. Wembanyama and Brunson each missed jumpers on the next two possessions, with Wembanyama rebounding Brunson's shot with 11.8 seconds remaining and the score still tied at 104. Wembanyama started to dribble up the court and then made an outlet pass that hit Castle in the back. Brunson snatched the loose ball, and Wembanyama compounded his mistake by fouling Brunson at midcourt. Brunson split the free throws, and the Spurs called their final timeout with 7.5 seconds left. The Spurs' last play involved Fox catching the ball in the middle of the court, hesitating before driving, and then dishing to Wembanyama for a jump shot. Wembanyama missed, and time ran out before the Spurs could retrieve the ball or commit a foul to stop the clock. ABC/ESPN commentator Kenny Smith correctly pointed out that the Spurs would have been better served to attack more quickly on their final possession so that even if they missed a shot they would have time to go for an offensive rebound or at least commit a foul to stop the clock and have one more possession trailing by one, two, or three (depending on how many free throws the Knicks made after the foul).

The Spurs' 14-0 fourth quarter run proved to be too little, too late; during the first two games they have played very well at times, but too often they have hurt themselves with a combination of passivity and mental errors. Of course, the Knicks deserve a tremendous amount of credit for pressuring the Spurs enough to make the Spurs uncomfortable and error-prone. In game one, Brunson (13 fourth quarter points) and Anunoby (12 fourth quarter points) took over late to lead the Knicks to victory; this game two win gives the Knicks a commanding advantage because no team that lost the first two NBA Finals games at home has come back to win the championship.

Labels: De'Aaron Fox, Jalen Brunson, Karl-Anthony Towns, Mikal Bridges, New York Knicks, OG Anunoby, San Antonio Spurs, Stephon Castle, Victor Wembanyama

posted by David Friedman @ 1:46 AM

6 comments

Brunson Burner Singes Spurs as Knicks Steal Game One of the NBA Finals

The New York Knicks built a 14-7 first quarter lead but had to come back from a 14 point third quarter deficit to earn a 105-95 win versus the San Antonio Spurs in game one of the NBA Finals. The Knicks shot 39-94 (.415) from the field and were outrebounded 54-49, but they held the Spurs to 32-89 (.360) field goal shooting while forcing 13 turnovers and committing just nine turnovers (including just one in the decisive second half). The Knicks outscored the Spurs in the paint 50-42, won the second chance scoring battle 23-14, and only narrowly trailed in fast break points (15-12) even though the Spurs are a younger and more athletic team. The Knicks are the seventh team in NBA history to win at least 12 consecutive playoff games, and just the third to do so in a single postseason, joining the 1999 Spurs (who also won 12 games in a row) and the 2017 Golden State Warriors (who won 15 games in a row); both of those teams won the NBA title.

Jalen Brunson overcame a poor first quarter (three points on 1-7 field goal shooting) to finish with a game-high 30 points on 12-31 field goal shooting. Along the way, he battled early injuries to his right knee and left ankle that caused him to miss some time during the first half. Brunson had just two assists and a team-high four turnovers, but he dominated the fourth quarter with 13 points on 5-9 field goal shooting as the Knicks outscored the Spurs 29-19 in the final stanza; basketball has a lot of strategy, but sometimes--particularly in close games--it comes down to something as simple as which team's star player makes clutch shots.

Karl-Anthony Towns had 18 points, 12 rebounds, four assists, and the game's second best plus/minus number (+14). His individual defense versus Victor Wembanyama was excellent, and he also did a superb job of attacking Wembanyama's defense by driving aggressively to the hoop when he had the ball and crashing the offensive boards (game-high tying four offensive rebounds) when he did not have the ball. I picked the Spurs to beat the Knicks, but I noted, "Towns' effectiveness at both ends of the court--and whether he avoids committing silly fouls--will be a key factor in this series." Winning basketball is about a lot more than just crunching numbers--this is a recurring theme in my NBA coverage--and Towns' impact in game one goes well beyond what his boxscore numbers suggest and even what his plus/minus number indicates. ESPN's Charles Barkley said that Towns was the Knicks' most valuable player in this game, and that Towns will be the key player for the whole series.

Josh Hart had a game-high +22 plus/minus number despite scoring just three points on 1-5 field goal shooting; he made his impact felt all over the court with a game-high 15 rebounds, a game-high six assists, and a game-high four steals (matching all of the Spurs combined). 

OG Anunoby's boxscore numbers do not jump off of the page (17 points, three rebounds, -6 plus/minus number), but he had 12 points and a +5 plus/minus number in the fourth quarter with the game up for grabs.

Landry Shamet continued his hot shooting and timely scoring with 13 points in 33 minutes off of the bench. He was the only New York reserve who played more than 20 minutes or scored more than 10 points.

Mitchell Robinson survived perhaps the world's most famous broken pinkie to compile six rebounds in 13 minutes off of the bench. 

Victor Wembanyama led the Spurs in scoring (26 points), rebounds (12), and blocked shots (three) but he also had a game-high six turnovers. He scored 11 of the Spurs' 19 fourth quarter points, but he shot just 3-8 from the field; overall, Wembanyama shot 6-21 from the field, including 2-9 from beyond the arc, and those numbers are not good enough for a player of his caliber: Wembanyama must have a higher field goal percentage, and he must shoot fewer three pointers--and it should be obvious that the solution to both equations involves attacking the paint instead of being satisfied to float around the perimeter. 

Stephon Castle contributed 17 points and eight rebounds, Julian Champagnie added 16 points and 10 rebounds, and Dylan Harper had 16 points and eight rebounds off of the bench. Champagnie provided a major first half spark (15 points, 5-6 three point field goal shooting, six rebounds), but he disappeared in the second half after the Knicks stopped leaving him wide open. 

As is the case with many NBA games, this was a game of runs. The Knicks could not sustain their early lead, and by the end of the first quarter the Spurs were up, 27-19. The Knicks briefly went ahead in the second quarter, but never by more than one point, and by halftime the Spurs enjoyed a 55-48 advantage. Both teams struggled to shoot .400 from the field in the first half, but the Spurs had three fewer turnovers and 10 more free throws made. The Spurs opened the third quarter with a 10-3 run in the first 5:29 with Wembanyama sinking four free throws, Castle scoring on a drive, and Castle scoring on a putback as well as Harper converting a floater. The tide shifted shortly after Luke Kornet subbed in for Wembanyama; in the next five minutes, the Knicks used a 20-10 burst to tie the game at 71, and the score was 76-76 heading into the fourth quarter. 

Neither team led by more than five points in the fourth quarter until Brunson scored a fast break layup at the 6:34 mark to put the Knicks up, 92-86. After play was halted briefly because an idiot ran onto the court from the stands, the Spurs won the ensuing jump ball but the Knicks turned Champagnie's missed three pointer into a Brunson fast break layup. Wembanyama answered with a three pointer, followed by Champagnie splitting a pair of free throws and Wembanyama completing a three point play after Towns fouled him on a drive. Wembanyama made two more free throws to put the Spurs up 95-94 at the 2:16 mark, but after Anunoby missed a three pointer Brunson tipped the long rebound to Mikal Bridges, who passed back to Brunson in the right corner for a dagger three pointer with 1:50 remaining to give the Knicks a lead that they would not relinquish. The Knicks outscored the Spurs 11-0 in the final 1:50.

Each game in a seven game series has its own rhythm, but matchup advantages remain constant unless impacted by foul trouble or injuries. For the Spurs to win game two and eventually win the series, they need Wembanyama to impose his presence in the paint at both ends of the court; in game one, he let Towns push him to the perimeter on offense far too often, and when the Spurs were on defense the Knicks cleverly used ball movement and player movement to open up driving lanes to attack the paint at angles that made it difficult for Wembanyama to guard his man and protect the rim. The Spurs seem to have an armada of rangy, athletic wings who can make life difficult for Brunson, but after Brunson's slow first quarter start he shot 11-24 the rest of the way and he dominated the fourth quarter. The Spurs controlled significant portions of game one and only trailed 97-95 with less than 90 seconds left in the game, so it is not like they need to make wholesale changes--or the much talked about "adjustments"--to win game two; if they play the way that they played for most of the regular season and most of the playoffs then they will put themselves in position to be successful.

All that being said, winning game one is important. Since the NBA went to the 16 team playoff format in 1984, the game one winner in the NBA Finals eventually won the series 28 times in 42 attempts (.667 winning percentage), and that trend has held true recently: the game one winner has won the NBA finals seven times in the past 10 years. Also, the overall series winning percentage of game one winners since 1984 is .771, a number that is inflated a bit by the large number of first round mismatches in which the higher seeded team wins the first game and then cruises to a series victory. The oft-repeated notion that game one is a "feel out game" is not supported by the numbers; historically, game one is a reliable indicator of who will win the series, and it is amusing that people who claim to rely on "analytics" seem to struggle to understand this.

Labels: Dylan Harper, Jalen Brunson, Josh Hart, Julian Champagnie, Karl-Anthony Towns, New York Knicks, OG Anunoby, San Antonio Spurs, Stephon Castle, Victor Wembanyama

posted by David Friedman @ 2:45 AM

5 comments

San Antonio Versus New York Preview

NBA Finals

San Antonio (62-20) vs. New York (53-29)

Season series: Tied, 1-1 (The Knicks also won the 2025 NBA Cup Championship Game versus Spurs, but that game does not count in the regular season standings)

New York can win if…the Knicks win the possession game by outrebounding the Spurs while also limiting the Spurs' opportunities to score in transition off of turnovers. 

The Knicks lead the 2026 NBA playoffs in rebounding differential (9.5 rpg), and the Spurs rank third (4.9 rpg). The Knicks rank fourth in the 2026 playoffs with a 2.5 turnover differential, while the Spurs rank 11th with a -1.39 turnover differential. Obviously, playoff rankings are affected by strength of opposition, but for the Knicks to win this series it is very important for them to have the advantage in both categories because the Spurs rank first in the playoffs in defensive field goal percentage (.413); the Knicks need to have as many possessions as possible because of how difficult it is to score versus the Spurs. 

The Knicks own an 11 game winning streak since trailing the Atlanta Hawks 2-1 in the first round, and their +262 point differential in those games is the best in NBA history for any 11 game stretch, regular season or playoffs. Overall, the Knicks' +271 point differential in the 2026 playoffs is the best in NBA playoff history for any team prior to the NBA Finals. The Knicks lead the playoffs in scoring (119.9 ppg), points allowed (100.6 ppg), point differential (19.3 ppg), and field goal percentage (.512; no other team is shooting better than .480), while ranking third in defensive field goal percentage (.437).  

Jalen Brunson earned the Larry Bird Eastern Conference Finals MVP after averaging 25.5 ppg and 7.8 apg while shooting .487 from the field as the Knicks swept the Cleveland Cavaliers, 4-0. Brunson leads the Knicks in playoff scoring (26.9 ppg) and assists (6.6 apg). Brunson has been one of the NBA's top guards ever since the Dallas Mavericks let him walk in free agency in 2022. I'm not sure what kind of "advanced basketball statistics" the Mavericks are using, but breaking up their 2011 championship team, paying Harrison Barnes franchise player money, refusing to pay Brunson $20 million/year (which looks like a bargain now), and trading Luka Doncic for Anthony Davis are just a few of the unwise decisions made by the team's front office in the past 15 years. 

Karl-Anthony Towns dazzled with his playmaking (team-high 7.5 apg) as the Knicks swept the Philadelphia 76ers in the second round, but in the Eastern Conference Finals the Knicks' offense often focused on isolating Brunson to exploit James Harden's horrific defense. Towns still averaged 15.8 ppg, a team-high 12.0 rpg, and 4.0 apg in the series, and his overall playoff averages this year are 16.9 ppg, a team-high 10.6 rpg, and 5.9 apg. 

OG Anunoby ranks second on the team in playoff scoring (19.7 ppg), second in steals (1.6 spg), and third in rebounding (6.9 rpg) while shooting .577 from the field. He is very valuable because of his size and versatility, and at times he has been the Knicks' best player even though he does not receive the accolades or attention that Brunson and Towns deservedly get for their high level performances.

Josh Hart ranks just fifth on the team in playoff scoring (11.4 ppg), but he is first in steals (1.8 spg), second in rebounding (8.6 rpg), and third in assists (4.6 apg). Hart is not as big as Anunoby, but he can guard multiple positions well while also serving as a secondary playmaker and double figure scorer.

The Knicks' bench was productive in key moments versus the Cavaliers in the Eastern Conference Finals. Landry Shamet averaged 9.8 ppg with shooting splits that look like typographical errors: .750/.917/.800. Mitchell Robinson snagged 11 offensive rebounds in four games. Robinson suffered a mysterious broken right pinkie while the Knicks waited for the Western Conference Finals to end; the Knicks provided no details about how the injury happened other than it did not occur during a game or during a practice. Robinson had surgery and is expected to be available for game one of the NBA Finals. His physicality and rebounding are important.

In my 2025-26 Eastern Conference Preview, I picked the Knicks to win the Eastern Conference, but by the end of the regular season I had lost faith in the Knicks while being very impressed by how well the Boston Celtics played even before Jayson Tatum returned, so I picked the Celtics to win the Eastern Conference. The Knicks have performed much better in the 2026 playoffs than even I expected when I initially picked them to reach the NBA Finals. 

San Antonio will win because…the Spurs have an incredibly deep and talented roster anchored by Victor Wembanyama, who won the Defensive Player of the Year award and finished third in MVP voting in just his third NBA season. 

Wembanyama's first playoff run has been exceptional: he leads the Spurs in scoring (23.2 ppg), rebounding (10.8 rpg), and blocked shots (league-leading 3.5 bpg) despite ranking just fourth on the squad in minutes (32.5 mpg). He can score from anywhere on the court, as his playoff shooting splits (.510/.370/.870) indicate, but his biggest impact is on defense; he leads the league in a category that has not even been officially named yet but could be called "Man, I don't think so" because--much like L.L. Cool J felt ambivalent about going to California--ballhandlers take one look at Wembanyama lurking in the paint and decide "Man, I don't think so" in terms of challenging him at the rim. Decades ago, it was said of Bill Russell that what mattered even more than how many shots he blocked and altered were how many shots were not even taken due to his presence. It is fair to say that Wembanyama has that type of looming presence of doom in the paint, and even though conventional wisdom is that the best way to attack a shotblocker is to go straight into his body we do not see too many players opting to directly challenge Wembanyama. 

Wembanyama has said that his NBA role model is Russell Westbrook, and it is evident that he takes after Westbrook in terms of being a beloved teammate who is fiercely competitive and not trying to make friends with opposing players. The pace at which Wembanyama's NBA body and mind have developed is breathtaking; last season he played in just 46 regular season games as the Spurs limped to a 34-48 record, but this season he played in 64 games while leading the Spurs to the league's second best record. Sometimes, young teams led by a young superstar fail to live up to expectations during the playoffs, but the Spurs dethroned the 2025 NBA champion Oklahoma City Thunder by beating the Thunder 111-103 at Oklahoma City in game seven of the Western Conference Finals. Wembanyama averaged 27.3 ppg, 10.9 rpg, 3.1 apg, 2.7 bpg, and 1.4 spg with shooting splits of .481/.400/.895 to win the Magic Johnson Western Conference Finals MVP.

Wembanyama is not a one man team, though; his supporting cast is young but athletic and tough. During the Western Conference Finals, Stephon Castle led the Spurs in assists (7.6 apg) while ranking second in scoring (18.0 ppg), and fifth in rebounding (5.0 rpg). The only negative is that he led the team in turnovers (4.6 tpg) by a wide margin.

Devin Vassell ranked third on the team in scoring in the Western Conference Finals (13.9 ppg), led the team in three point field goals made (21) and steals (1.7 spg), and ranked second in three point field goal percentage (.396).

Rookie guard Dylan Harper contributed 12.0 ppg (fourth on the team) and 5.7 rpg (third on the team) in the Western Conference Finals, while Julian Champagnie added 11.9 ppg, ranked second on the team with 18 three point field goals made, and ranked second in rebounding (6.1 rpg).

De'Aaron Fox missed the first two games of the Western Conference Finals due to a sprained right ankle, but in the five games he played he chipped in 11.2 ppg, 6.2 apg (second on the team), and 5.2 rpg (fourth on the team). The 28 year old is the oldest player in the Spurs' seven man rotation.

Keldon Johnson, the NBA's 2026 Sixth Man of the Year, averaged 9.9 ppg in the Western Conference Finals, and he had 11 points on 4-8 field goal shooting in 16 minutes in game seven, including a team-high eight points on 3-3 field goal shooting in a tightly contested fourth quarter.

The Spurs' rangy and speedy perimeter players are very aggressive defensively because they know that Wembanyama will deter or erase any field goal attempts in the paint. 

Other things to consider: Towns is a fascinating player because he has enough talent to do anything on a basketball court; he is limited only by his imagination and his focus level. In his 2016 book Success is the Only Option: The Art of Coaching Extreme Talent, John Calipari (Towns' college coach at Kentucky) discussed at length the methods he used to get the most out of Towns in college while preparing him for a long, high level NBA career (pp. 46-49):

Karl's talent was obvious but he liked to roam around the perimeter, near the three point line, rather than going down low and mixing it up with the big guys. In high school, he attempted a ton of three-point shots and hit for a decent percentage. When he got to Kentucky, that was still his inclination. The finesse game. It was pretty to watch and it would have helped us plenty; after all, players who can shoot the ball form distance are always welcome.

But I wouldn't accept it. We said, "You're going to get in the post [and] you're going to learn to battle." There have been big players in the NBA, six foot ten and up, who are good outside shooters but shy away from physicality down low. They never amount to as much as they could. And then there are guys like Kevin Garnett and Karl Malone, excellent jump shooters who were also skilled and relentless around the hoop. Even Dirk Nowitzki, a seven-footer and one of the best three-point shooters in NBA history, has terrific post moves...

Malone is in the Hall of Fame and Garnett and Nowitkzi will join him the moment they're eligible [Garnett was inducted in the Basketball Hall of Fame in 2021 as a member of the 2020 class, and Nowitzki was inducted in the Basketball Hall of Fame in 2023]. That's the future I envisioned for Karl, but I knew I had him at a formative moment. A window can close on young players. The danger is that they will achieve what may feel like a high level of success without ever having to reach down and develop all aspects of their games...

Karl was invested in being a nice guy. Great, I'd tell him. I love being around you. Everybody does, and hold on to that. But it can't be your persona on the court. I'm never going to accept anything less from you and just shrug it off and say, "Oh, that's just Karl being Karl." 

Towns has made the All-Star team six times in his 11 year NBA career, including each of his three seasons with the Knicks, and he has been selected to the All-NBA Third Team three times, most recently in 2024-25. He has finished second in the league in rebounding each of the past two seasons, and he also has the 19th best career three point field goal percentage (.397) among active players. Towns is capable of using his three point shooting to draw Wembanyama away from the paint, but he is also capable of battling him for rebounds and posting him up. The Knicks will likely use several different players to guard Wembanyama, but Towns' effectiveness at both ends of the court--and whether he avoids committing silly fouls--will be a key factor in this series.   

Regular season head to head matchups between teams often do not mean much by the playoffs because so much can change in even just a few months. The Knicks beat the Spurs 124-113 in the NBA Cup Championship Game on December 16, 2025 at a neutral site (Las Vegas), but at that time Wembanyama was on a minutes restriction in just his second game back after missing 12 games due to injury. The NBA does not count the NBA Cup Championship Game in the regular season standings, and that game likely did not provide much evidence regarding what will happen in the NBA Finals--but it is worth noting that the Knicks won by dominating the rebounding battle 59-42 with four players each grabbing more rebounds than any Spur: Robinson (15 rebounds), Towns (11), Anunoby (nine), and Hart (eight). The Spurs edged the Knicks 134-132 at San Antonio on December 31, 2025; this time, the Spurs outrebounded the Knicks 48-40. In the third and final meeting between the teams on March 1, 2026, the Knicks routed the Spurs 114-89 at Madison Square Garden, outrebounding the Spurs 54-41. 

The Knicks' 2026 playoff run so far is unprecedented, but the Spurs' showed the best version of themselves at both ends of the court while eliminating a powerful (albeit shorthanded) Thunder team. I predict that San Antonio will win in six games.

Labels: Devin Vassell, Jalen Brunson, Karl-Anthony Towns, New York Knicks, OG Anunoby, San Antonio Spurs, Stephon Castle, Victor Wembanyama

posted by David Friedman @ 9:13 AM

8 comments

Spurs Silence Thunder in Game Seven to Advance to NBA Finals

In game seven of the Western Conference Finals, the San Antonio Spurs started fast, finished strong, and wore down the defending NBA champion Oklahoma City Thunder, winning 111-103 on the Thunder's home court. Victor Wembanyama is without question the Spurs' best player, and he came through with a team-high 22 points plus a team-high tying seven rebounds, but this was very much a team effort: all five starters plus two reserves scored in double figures, including Julian Champagnie (20 points while shooting 6-10 from three point range), Stephon Castle (16 points, six rebounds, team-high six assists), De'Aaron Fox (15 points, five assists), Dylan Harper (12 points, team-high tying seven rebounds), Devin Vassell (11 points, six rebounds), and Keldon Johnson (11 points). The Spurs enjoyed narrow edges in rebounding (40-38) and turnovers (committing 12 while forcing 14), but won this game with their energy and force in transition, outscoring the Thunder 19-7 in fast break points.

The Spurs received the Oscar Robertson Trophy for winning the Western Conference Championship, and Wembanyama earned the Magic Johnson Western Conference Finals MVP, joining a club that includes Stephen Curry (2022), Nikola Jokic (2023), Luka Doncic (2024), and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (2025). Wembanyama's Western Conference Finals numbers display his all-around dominance: 27.3 ppg, 10.9 rpg, 3.1 apg, 2.7 bpg, and 1.4 spg with shooting splits of .481/.400/.895. Wembanyama is the first player to make at least 15 three pointers and block at least 15 shots in the same playoff series, and he is the youngest player to lead his team in scoring and rebounding entering the NBA Finals.

The Thunder, who took a 3-2 series lead despite dropping game one at home, played from behind for most of game seven and could not muster enough offense, shooting 37-83 (.446) from the field--including just 12-35 (.343) from beyond the arc--after ranking fifth in the league in scoring (119.0 ppg), fifth in field goal percentage (.484) and ninth in three point field goal percentage (.365) during the regular season. Throughout this series, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander played below his usual standard, but he performed at an MVP level in game seven, finishing with a game-high 35 points on 12-21 field goal shooting while also dishing for a game-high nine assists; however, he looked drained by the fourth quarter, and he had only four points on 2-4 field goal shooting in the final stanza. Cason Wallace played well (17 points, seven rebounds, four assists) while starting in place of injured 2025 All-Star Jalen Williams, but the other three starters combined for 14 points on 5-13 field goal shooting. Chet Holmgren, who earned his first selections to the All-Star team, All-NBA Third Team, and All-Defensive First Team this season, had four points, four rebounds, and two blocked shots in 34 minutes. There is no doubt that the Thunder expected and needed more from Holmgren than he provided in this game, but it is worth recalling that Dennis Johnson shot 0-14 from the field in game seven of the 1978 NBA Finals, and then earned the 1979 Finals MVP after capturing the first of three NBA titles that he won during his Hall of Fame career; one bad performance by a young player early in his career is not necessarily a reason to completely give up on him (which is not meant to suggest that I expect Holmgren to become as great a player as Johnson).

It takes nothing away from how well the Spurs played in this series--and particularly how they met the challenge after losing game five--to acknowledge that being without Jalen Williams and his replacement Ajay Mitchell (who averaged 15.1 ppg in 11 playoff games this year) proved to be too much for the Thunder to overcome. The Thunder were 2-1 with Mitchell in the Western Conference Finals and 1-3 without him; this is not just about Mitchell's numbers but about the domino effect that his absence had on the Thunder's rotation plus the extra ballhandling responsibilities that Gilgeous-Alexander had to assume with both Williams and Mitchell not available. 

Injuries are part of the game, though, and attrition is a major reason why it is so difficult to win back to back titles.

The Spurs led 10-4 by the 9:11 mark of the first quarter, and were ahead 27-13 with 5:07 remaining in first quarter. We have seen some teams just quit--even on their home court--after getting hit in the mouth, but the Thunder will never be mistaken for the Cleveland Cavaliers. The Thunder cut the margin to 32-25 by the end of the first quarter. The Spurs led by as much as 11 in the second quarter, but the Thunder fought back to tie the score at 49 on a Lu Dort three pointer with 2:17 remaining. Holmgren drained a pair of free throws to give the Thunder their biggest lead of the game, 53-49, before the Spurs closed the half on a 7-0 run in the final 54 seconds. 

Oklahoma City coach Mark Daigneault tried to boost his team's sagging offense by changing his second half starting lineup, inserting Jaylin Williams and Alex Caruso in place of Isaiah Hartenstein and Lu Dort. Caruso had a very good series overall and he was the Thunder's second leading scorer (14.9 ppg) versus the Spurs, but in this game he had 12 points on 3-14 field goal shooting. The Thunder briefly led by three in the third quarter, but the Spurs were on top for the final 19:33 of the game.

Johnson's layup with 8:00 left in the fourth quarter put the Spurs up 97-86, and that play might have been the breaking point for many teams, but the Thunder answered with a Hartenstein three point play plus a Gilgeous-Alexander turnaround jumper to slash the lead to 97-91 at the 6:49 mark. Wembanyama committed his fifth foul on the Hartenstein score, and the Spurs replaced him with Luke Kornet during a timeout with 6:48 remaining. This seemed to be an opportunity for the Thunder to do some damage with Wembanyama on the bench. Hartenstein stole a pass on the Spurs' next possession and was poised to deliver a fast break dunk to put the Thunder within four points--but Kornet made perhaps the biggest play of the game, a spectacular chasedown blocked shot that the Spurs soon turned into a Castle jump shot to make the score 99-91. The Spurs led by at least six points the rest of the way. 

Wembanyama, who proudly wears his emotions on his sleeve, cried after the final buzzer sounded. Good for him for showing how much winning means to him. He appears to have the right mix of confidence, team-oriented mindset, and passion for the game to be an all-time great--but that is something that must be proven with sustained excellence.

You may recall Cleveland coach Kenny Atkinson claiming that "analytically" his team won two of the first three games of a series in which his squad was swept, losing by double digit margins in each game; after the fourth loss, Atkinson's main man James Harden insisted that the Cavaliers are a better team than the New York Knicks. In the wake of those delusional and self-serving remarks, it was refreshing to hear Gilgeous-Alexander's take on his team's game seven loss: "They were just the better team tonight from start to finish." A big part of being a champion is understanding how to lose, and how to learn from losses--and delusion is not part of that equation.

This was an entertaining and well played series overall, even though the last five games were each decided by double digit margins. Rivalries make sports special--some of my favorite basketball memories involve the annual showdowns between the Philadelphia 76ers and Boston Celtics in the early 1980s as Julius Erving and Larry Bird battled for individual and team supremacy--so let's hope that we are fortunate enough to see a few more Spurs-Thunder playoff matchups featuring Wembanyama and Gilgeous-Alexander as the headliners. This was the first time that two top top three MVP finishers faced off in the Conference Finals since Erving and Bird squared off in 1981 and 1982.

Labels: Chet Holmgren, Oklahoma City Thunder, San Antonio Spurs, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Stephon Castle, Victor Wembanyama

posted by David Friedman @ 2:20 AM

6 comments

Thunder Go Big, Beat Spurs to Tie Western Conference Finals at 1-1

After Victor Wembanyama and his San Antonio Spurs dominated the paint in a 122-115 overtime victory over the Oklahoma City Thunder in game one of the Western Conference Finals, the Thunder faced a must-win situation in game two. In game one, Wembanyama led both teams in points (41), rebounds (24), and blocked shots (three) as the Spurs outscored the Thunder 52-38 in the paint and outrebounded the Thunder 61-40; the Thunder went small in game one, with starting center Isaiah Hartenstein playing just 12 minutes after averaging 24.2 mpg during the regular season as he led the squad in rebounding (9.4 rpg) for the second consecutive year.

Hartenstein played 27 minutes in game two and led the Thunder with 13 rebounds as the Thunder won 122-113. Hartenstein's bump and run defense on Wembanyama resulted in the young phenom having 21 points, a game-high 17 rebounds, six assists, and a game-high four blocked shots; those are excellent numbers for most players, but those are also numbers that the Thunder can live with from Wembanyama. The Spurs won the rebounding battle again, but only by four (45-41), and the Spurs also only led by four in points in the paint (46-42); the Thunder won the overall possession battle by forcing 21 turnovers while committing just nine turnovers, with the net result being that the Thunder launched 94 field goal attempts while limiting the Spurs to 84. The team field goal percentages were close (.488 for the Spurs, .479 for the Thunder), so the Thunder's extra possessions made a huge difference.

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, who had 24 points on 7-23 field goal shooting in game one, led both teams with 30 points and nine assists in game two while shooting 12-24 from the field. Alex Caruso, who erupted for a playoff career-high 31 points in game one, had 17 points in game two. Chet Holmgren added 13 points, while Jared McCain and Cason Wallace had 12 points each to help the Thunder overcome the loss of 2025 All-Star Jalen Williams, who played just seven minutes before leaving the game after reinjuring the left hamstring that caused him to miss six of the Thunder's 10 playoff games this year.

Stephon Castle led the Spurs in scoring (25 points) and assists (eight) but he had a game-high nine turnovers after committing 11 turnovers in game one. He set the record for most turnovers in consecutive playoff games since the NBA began officially tracking turnovers during the 1977-78 season. Castle has been forced into the primary ballhandling role because De'Aaron Fox missed both games due to a right ankle sprain. The Spurs' elite backcourt had another setback in the third quarter when Dylan Harper suffered a right leg injury that forced him to miss the rest of the game.

The injuries to key players on both teams could affect the outcome of the series, but the Thunder are probably better positioned than the Spurs to withstand injuries not only because the Thunder have more depth and more playoff experience but also because they posted the best regular season record despite Williams playing in just 33 out of 82 games: the Thunder have been forced to learn how to win without their second best player.

Commentators who declared the series to be over after game one apparently could not comprehend the simple fact that the Spurs needed overtime to beat the Thunder with the Thunder playing beneath their normal level and with Wembanyama putting up boxscore numbers not seen in the playoffs since Hakeem Olajuwon and Shaquille O'Neal were in their prime years; unless one assumed that Wembanyama would average 40-20 while the Thunder shot less than .410 from the field it should have been obvious that the Thunder would bounce back strongly in game two, particularly if the Thunder had enough sense to stop trotting out small lineups. 

It is worth noting that during last year's championship run the Thunder lost game one in two of their four playoff series. In the 2025 NBA Finals, the Indiana Pacers won game one and took a 2-1 lead over the Thunder after Thunder coach Mark Daigneault made the mistake of going small in the first three games, benching center Isaiah Hartenstein in favor of Cason Wallace. Daigneault started Hartenstein over Wallace in the Thunder's 111-104 game four win, and kept Hartenstein in the starting lineup the rest of the way en route to the Thunder winning the series, 4-3; the Thunder went 3-1 with their traditional double big man lineup, and they went 1-2 with their small lineup.

Going small is a move that many media members often advocate, but the reality is that in most instances a team should go with what they do best as opposed to going small; the two obvious exceptions are (1) when the small lineup is the team's best lineup and (2) when the team is clearly inferior to the extent that any change or disruption is worth a shot. Here, it is odd that Daigneault not only went small for no reason during the 2025 NBA Finals but then made the same mistake in game one versus the Spurs. The Thunder were better than the 2025 Pacers and are better than the 2026 Spurs, and a big reason (pun intended) that the Thunder are better is the effectiveness of their double big lineup featuring Hartenstein and Holmgren. Those two big men protect the paint and provide timely inside presence offensively, enabling the three perimeter players to wreak havoc at both ends of the court. Downsizing hurts the Thunder defensively and on the boards. 

By virtue of seizing homecourt advantage with the game one win, the Spurs have the edge on paper in the Western Conference Finals as the series shifts to San Antonio for the next two games, but the Thunder have the edge on the court if they manage the matchups correctly. Often, the best "adjustment" is to make no adjustment at all--and in this series the Thunder would be best served by not outsmarting themselves with small lineups or any other gimmicks.

Labels: Isaiah Hartenstein, Oklahama City Thunder, San Antonio Spurs, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Stephon Castle, Victor Wembanyama

posted by David Friedman @ 9:42 AM

0 comments

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander Becomes the Fifth Guard to Win Consecutive NBA Regular Season MVPs

In 2025, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander won the regular season MVP, Magic Johnson Western Conference Finals MVP, and Bill Russell NBA Finals MVP; now, he is one step closer to repeating that individual "three-peat" this season after capturing the 2026 NBA regular season MVP. Gilgeous-Alexander received 83 out of 100 first place votes and 939 total points from an international media panel, with three-time regular season MVP Nikola Jokic (2021, 2022, and 2024) finishing a distant second with 10 first place votes and 634 total points, and 2026 Defensive Player of the Year Victor Wembanyama rounding out the top three (five first place votes, 539 total points).

Gilgeous-Alexander joins Magic Johnson (1989-90), Michael Jordan (1991-92), Steve Nash (2005-06), and Stephen Curry (2015-16) as the only guards to win back to back NBA regular season MVPs. He is the 15th player in pro basketball history to win consecutive regular season MVPs, joining a list that includes (in addition to the guards listed above) Bill Russell (1961-63 NBA), Wilt Chamberlain (1966-68 NBA), Kareem Abdul-Jabbar (1971-72, 1976-77 NBA), Julius Erving (1974-76 ABA), Moses Malone (1982-83 NBA), Larry Bird (1984-86 NBA), Tim Duncan (2002-03 NBA), LeBron James (2009-10, 2012-13 NBA), Giannis Antetokounmpo (2019-20 NBA), and Nikola Jokic (2021-22).

I analyzed the 2026 regular season MVP race in my 2025-26 NBA Playoff Predictions article, concluding, "This is the fourth straight season that Shai Gilgeous-Alexander has performed at an MVP level, and in the previous three seasons he finished fifth, second, and first in the balloting. He averaged at least 30.1 ppg and at least 5.5 apg while shooting at least .510 from the field in each of those four seasons. Gilgeous-Alexander combines the elite midrange shooting touch of George Gervin with the ability to slash to the hoop, draw fouls, and dish to open teammates. He is also an excellent defensive player. There is nothing negative to say about him, and no reason that he should not be selected as MVP--except for the inconvenient fact that Jokic is even more productive and efficient."

Two seasons ago, Jokic joined Wilt Chamberlain as the only players to rank in the top three in the league in scoring, rebounding, and assists in the same season while becoming the first center and third player overall to average a triple double for an entire season; this season, Jokic averaged 27.7 ppg (eighth in the league), 12.9 rpg (first in the league), and 10.7 apg (first in the league) with shooting splits of .569/.380/.831. Jokic has averaged at least 24.5 ppg, at least 10.8 rpg and at least 7.9 apg for six straight seasons while never shooting worse than .566 from the field; no player in pro basketball history has matched each of those thresholds for a six season span. It is difficult to rationally argue that any player in the league is more versatile and productive than Jokic, and it could be argued that he is as versatile and productive as any player in pro basketball history; the counterarguments would focus on defense (which--other than defensive rebounding--is not captured by the above statistics) and on the reality that the NBA currently (1) has diluted its talent by expanding to 30 teams and (2) is plagued by up to a third of the teams tanking, which results in distorted statistics for the teams that are not tanking (and, consequently, for the players on those teams).

Wembanyama averaged 25.0 ppg and 11.5 rpg (fourth in the league) while capturing his third straight shotblocking title (3.1 bpg). If he can stay healthy, he could rewrite the record book while transforming the view of a how a big man can or should play.

Gilgeous-Alexander's statistical profile is also remarkable. This season, he became the first guard to average at least 30 ppg while shooting at least .550 from the field; the closest Michael Jordan came to accomplishing this was when he posted five 30 ppg seasons during which he shot between .519 and .539 from the field, while George Gervin deserves an honorable mention for scoring 33.1 ppg on .528 field goal shooting en route to winning the 1980 scoring title. Gilgeous-Alexander, Chamberlain, and Jordan are the only players who averaged at least 30 ppg while shooting at least .500 from the field in four consecutive seasons. Gilgeous-Alexander broke Chamberlain's record for consecutive regular season games with at least 20 points (126), pushing the mark to 140 (and counting).

Gilgeous-Alexander, Jokic, and Wembanyama share at least one quality: they each genuinely seem to care more about team success than about individual numbers and accolades. Other players in the league would do well to aspire not so much to match the trio's gaudy statistics but rather the selfless way that they play.

Labels: Denver Nuggets, Nikola Jokic, Oklahoma City Thunder, San Antonio Spurs, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Victor Wembanyama

posted by David Friedman @ 3:22 PM

8 comments

Oklahoma City Versus San Antonio Preview

Western Conference Finals

#1 Oklahoma City (64-18) vs. #2 San Antonio (62-20) 

Season series: San Antonio, 4-1 

San Antonio can win if…Victor Wembanyama dominates the paint at both ends of the court while the Spurs' backcourt troika of Stephon Castle, De'Aaron Fox, and Dylan Harper keeps pace with Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and the Thunder's deep rotation of perimeter players. The Spurs won the regular season series 4-1 by controlling the paint and by not letting the Thunder dominate the possession game; the Thunder typically thrive when they force a lot of turnovers while minimizing their own turnovers.

Wembanyama's debut playoff run has been very productive so far; he has averaged a team-high 20.3 ppg, a team-high 10.7 rpg, and a league-leading 4.1 bpg in 10 games. He missed game three in the first round versus Portland while he was in concussion protocol, and he ranks just fourth on the team in playoff mpg (28.8) as the Spurs do everything possible to keep him healthy and fresh. 

Wembanyama averaged 19.8 ppg while leading the Spurs in rebounding (12.0 rpg) and blocked shots (4.2 bpg) as the Spurs eliminated the Minnesota Timberwolves 4-2 in the second round, ending the Timberwolves' bid to make a third straight appearance in the Western Conference Finals. Wembanyama had a slow offensive start to the series in San Antonio's 104-102 game one loss (11 points on 5-17 field goal shooting) but he also snared a game-high 15 rebounds and set an NBA single game playoff record with 12 blocked shots, surpassing the previous mark (10) held by three players (Mark Eaton, Hakeem Olajuwon, and Andrew Bynum) for a statistic that the NBA has tracked since the 1973-74 season (which means that the numbers for Bill Russell, Wilt Chamberlain, and a young Kareem Abdul-Jabbar are not known). The Spurs then won two straight games with Wembanyama leading the way, notching 19 points, a game-high 15 rebounds, and two blocked shots in San Antonio's 133-95 game two rout before exploding for 39 points, 15 rebounds, and five blocked shots in San Antonio's 115-108 game three victory. Wembanyama was ejected for elbowing Naz Reid in the head after playing less than 13 minutes in game four, and the Spurs lost 114-109. Wembanyama bounced back with 19 points, a game-high 17 rebounds, and a game-high three blocked shots in the Spurs' 126-97 game five win at home, and then he had 19 points, six rebounds, and a game-high three blocked shots as the Spurs closed out the series with a 139-109 rout on the road.

Castle ranks second on the team in playoff scoring (19.9 ppg), first in playoff assists (6.1 apg), and second in three point field goals made (22). Fox is third on the team in playoff scoring (18.8 ppg) and second in assists (5.8 apg). Harper is fourth on the team in playoff scoring (13.7 ppg) and third in rebounds (5.1 rpg). Their numbers are not overwhelming individually, but collectively they put a lot of pressure on opponents in multiple ways, and they make it difficult for opponents to load up on Wembanyama.

Oklahoma City will win because…the Thunder are more consistent and more efficient. The Spurs' regular season dominance of the Thunder should not be dismissed, and it could be argued that the Spurs are a better team now than they were even just a few months ago, but the Thunder have proven over the past two seasons that they are capable of rising to the occasion when it matters most.

The Thunder are the only team to sweep the first two rounds of the 2026 playoffs, and they are the first reigning NBA champion to sweep the first two rounds since the 2001 Lakers accomplished this during the second championship run of their 2000-02 "three-peat."

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander did not perform up to his high standards during the Thunder's 4-0 second round sweep of the L.A. Lakers, but he still led both teams in scoring (24.5 ppg) while pacing the Thunder in assists (6.0 apg). Overall, Gilgeous-Alexander is leading the Thunder in playoff scoring (29.1 ppg) and assists (7.1 apg) with shooting splits of .514/.323/.855. He is the 2026 playoff leader in two point field goals made per game and free throws made per game.

The Thunder have rolled even though their second best player, 2025 All-Star Jalen Williams, has only played in two of their eight playoff games, averaging 20.5 ppg on .615 field goal shooting. Williams has been out of action with a grade 1 left hamstring strain since suffering the injury on April 22 in the Thunder's 120-107 game two win versus Phoenix in the first round.

Willaims' absence has given Ajay Mitchell a chance to shine. Mitchell is averaging 18.8 ppg in eight playoff games with six starts after averaging 13.6 ppg in 57 regular season games with 16 starts. 

Chet Holmgren (18.6 ppg, team-high 9.1 rpg, team-high 1.8 bpg) and Isaish Hartenstein (9.9 ppg, 8.8 rpg, team-high .756 FG%) control the paint at both ends of the court. There is no love lost between Wembanyama and Holmgren, so that will be a fun--and critical--matchup to watch.

Alex Caruso (7.6 ppg, 1.5 spg), Cason Wallace (7.3 ppg, team-high 1.8 spg), Philadelphia cast-off Jared McCain (7.3 ppg), and Isaiah Joe (6.6 ppg) anchor a deep, versatile bench.

Other things to consider: In The Glitch in "The Process" is a Feature, not a Bug, I discussed how the Thunder assembled their championship-winning roster:

Here is how the Thunder acquired their top nine players in regular season mpg from their 2025 championship season: 

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander--the NBA's reigning regular season MVP, Magic Johnson Western Conference Finals MVP, and Bill Russell NBA Finals MVP--is the Thunder's franchise player. The Thunder obtained Gilgeous-Alexander and the draft pick that became All-Star Jalen Williams (their second best player) by trading Paul George to the L.A. Clippers. Morey's 76ers later signed Paul George after the Clippers wisely decided to not give George a maximum contract extension. 

The Thunder used a first round draft pick obtained by tanking to select Chet Holmgren. 

Lu Dort was not drafted, Isaiah Hartenstein was a free agent, Cason Wallace was acquired in a trade, Aaron Wiggins was a second round draft pick, Isaiah Joe was a free agent who had been waived by the 76ers, and Alex Caruso was acquired in a trade that sent Josh Giddey from the Thunder to the Chicago Bulls. The Thunder had selected Giddey with a first round pick obtained by tanking, but after they determined that Giddey was not the best fit with the rest of their roster they shrewdly shipped him out to obtain a proven championship-winning veteran who is a great leader and great defensive player.

Thunder general manager Sam Presti cut his NBA teeth with the San Antonio Spurs before the Thunder hired him. Knicks coach Mike Brown is also a product of the Spurs' system. I interviewed Brown during his first stint with the Cleveland Cavaliers, and he told me that he takes after his mentor Gregg Popovich in terms of not being a big numbers guy. When I asked Brown what statistics he values, he mentioned defensive field goal percentage and points allowed but not any of the "advanced basketball statistics" that are so in vogue in some quarters and that are so heavily valued by people like Hinkie and Morey. During their 2025 championship season, the Thunder ranked first in defensive field goal percentage and third in points allowed; they ranked first and second respectively in those categories this season. 

As I noted in my 2025 Western Conference Finals Preview, tanking is not why the Thunder are winning, and the Thunder's success should not be considered a justification of tanking "because tanking cheats paying fans while demeaning and diminishing the value of competition. The NBA was much better when load management and tanking did not exist."

The Spurs' roster construction seems less pure. From the outside looking in, it appears that the Spurs tanked to get Wembanyama and then were either very poorly coached during Wembanyama's first season or else tanked again to obtain Castle's draft rights. It is interesting that, in contrast to several teams that admit to tanking (the 76ers being the most obvious example), then-Spurs' coach Gregg Popovich explicitly denied that the Spurs were losing on purpose or would ever lose on purpose. Regardless of what the Spurs did or did not do to obtain Wembanyama, they are so fortunate that Wembanyama is 100% committed to playing selfless, winning basketball as opposed to focusing on individual glory. Wembanyama looks like a player who is capable of leading a team to a championship--but the Thunder have already won a championship with Gilgeous-Alexander leading a talented, deep, and selfless roster. The Spurs more than had the measure of the Thunder during the regular season, but playoff basketball is contested at a different intensity level than regular season basketball. It would not be shocking if the Spurs win this series, but I think that they are still at least a year away from winning the Western Conference Finals.

Oklahoma City will defeat San Antonio in six games.

Labels: Ajay Mitchell, Chet Holmgren, De'Aaron Fox, Dylan Harper, Jalen Williams, Oklahoma City Thunder, San Antonio Spurs, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Stephon Castle, Victor Wembanyama

posted by David Friedman @ 8:21 AM

2 comments

Thoughts About the Second Round: "Playoff Harden," Red Hot Knicks, Redick's Rhetoric, and San Antonio's Youth Versus Minnesota's Experience

The James Harden playoff era with the Cleveland Cavaliers began 2-0 but has taken a predictably downhill trajectory after that auspicious start: Harden amassed 38 turnovers and 35 field goals made in his next seven playoff game while shooting .385 from the field, and the Cavaliers are 2-5 in those games. In his last four playoff games, Harden has shot 17-51 (.333) from the field while committing 17 turnovers, and the Cavaliers are 1-3 in those games, with the one win happening mainly because Jarrett Allen had a double double in the third quarter versus a shorthanded Toronto team. 

The Detroit Pistons lead the Cavaliers 2-0 in their second round series after opening game two with a 14-5 run before winning, 107-97. The second game looked much like the first game, a 111-101 Pistons victory. Harden had 22 points on 6-15 field goal shooting with seven assists and seven turnovers in the first game before fully activating "Playoff Harden" mode in game two: 10 points on 3-13 field goal shooting, three assists, and four turnovers--a "concert tour" field goal percentage combined with his trademark "Harden" (a game in which a player--usually Harden, hence the name--has more turnovers than field goals made).

It is baffling that the Cavaliers' front office believed that Harden would be the missing piece for a championship run, and it is bizarre to hear his coach and teammates publicly praise his basketball IQ, his playoff experience, and his leadership. High basketball IQ players do not consistently have more turnovers than field goals made in the most important games, experience means nothing if the experience consists of choking while losing, and leadership is supposed to mean helping a group or a team complete a mission, not being a major reason that a group or a team fails to complete a mission.

I am trying to picture how Harden exercises leadership by sharing his high basketball IQ playoff experiences in the Cavaliers' locker room: does he wax poetic about when he had seven points on 2-8 field goal shooting in last year's 120-101 elimination game loss to the Denver Nuggets, or does he speak in general about shooting .399 from the field while averaging 5.9 tpg as his teams went 2-9 in his first 11 elimination games after he fled Oklahoma City? 

When it matters most, you can count on Harden to consistently do four things: 1) shoot less often than usual (which throws off the rhythm of his team), 2) shoot a lousy percentage from the field, 3) turn the ball over at a high rate, and 4) be slow to get back on defense after turning the ball over.  

Harden's awful play should not completely distract from how the Pistons are manhandling 2025 NBA Defensive Player of the Year Evan Mobley, who had one more rebound than a dead man in game two. The Cavaliers are a low energy team, and it is safe to say that Harden's careless, desultory play is not energizing any of his teammates. A great player cannot control how his teammates play, but a great player typically has an impact that makes his team better, particularly in the games that matter most. Harden is labeled as a great player, but his impact on team success does not match that label.

The series shifts to Cleveland for the next two games. It took the Pistons seven games to eliminate the Orlando Magic in the first round, so it would not be surprising if the Cavaliers win a game or even two at home, but it will be very surprising if the Cavaliers win four of the next five games to advance to the Eastern Conference Finals. After the Cavaliers acquired Harden in exchange for Darius Garland, I declared, "I can write the template for the Cavaliers' 2026 elimination game loss now, and after the game I can fill in the blanks around the words 'James Harden disappeared' and 'James Harden scored just xxx second half points.'" That article is in draft mode now, and I expect to post it sooner rather than later.

In the Eastern Conference's other second round series, the New York Knicks are on an impressive run since falling behind 2-1 to the Atlanta Hawks in the first round. The Knicks lead the Philadelphia 76ers 2-0 after humiliating the 76ers 137-98 in the series opener before surviving game two, 108-102. After seeing the Knicks drive by Joel Embiid as if he were a traffic cone in game one, the Boston Celtics should be sick to their stomachs about jacking up 49 three pointers in their 109-100 game seven loss to the 76ers; if they had attacked Embiid to wear him out and get him in foul trouble then it is likely that they would have earned the right to battle the Knicks in the second round. Embiid missed game two versus the Knicks due to ankle and hip injuries, and he is listed as questionable for game three. He is still a force in the paint offensively when he wants to be, but sliding his feet on defense--or even staying upright--has been challenging for him. Embiid exploited the Celtics' inexperienced centers, but the Knicks have the size and strength to battle with him, so in some ways that 76ers look better without him--at least in this particular matchup.

Turning our attention to the Western Conference, J.J. Redick's postgame press conferences after losses are fascinating. According to Redick, his team's losses can primarily be attributed to not following the game plan. Put another way, if only his players were smart enough and disciplined enough to execute his brilliant game plans then the L.A. Lakers would never lose. When asked about specific things he could tell his players, Redick consistently says "I have already conveyed that message to them" or words to that effect. In other words, "I told them everything that they need to know to be successful, so if they fail then that is their fault, not mine."

As a player, Redick never won a championship in college or in the NBA. It is interesting to listen to press conferences of championship coaches on the rare occasions when their teams lose; they tend to give credit to the opposing team, and they tend to accept blame for things that they could have done better. Bill Belichick has won more Super Bowls than any coach--and his Super Bowl-winning defensive game plan from Super Bowl XXV when he was the New York Giants' defensive coordinator is in the Pro Football Hall of Fame--but when his teams lost he would often say that he has to coach better and the players have to play better. When was the last time that Redick admitted that he needs to coach better? 

Last year, Redick's Lakers lost 4-1 in the first round to the Minnesota Timberwolves, after which I discussed the biggest mismatch in the series: 

The Lakers' late collapses versus the Timberwolves can be explained at least partially by coaching. It is important that a coach understand matchups, time and score, the rhythm of the game, and the fatigue level of his players. The Lakers had the two best individual players in this series--four-time NBA champion LeBron James, and Luka Doncic, who led the Dallas Mavericks to the NBA Finals last year--but the Timberwolves exploited their matchup advantages in the paint while keeping James and Doncic reasonably under control without creating openings for the Lakers' supporting cast to make an impact.

The Timberwolves enjoyed a significant coaching advantage: Chris Finch versus J.J. Redick may have been the biggest mismatch in this series. Redick established multiple records in his playoff coaching debut: no coach had ever played the same five players for every minute of the second half of a playoff game until Redick did that in the game four loss, and no Lakers team had ever lost in the first round of the playoffs while seeded at least third. Redick set an unofficial record for the fewest times that a coach ever took responsibility for his team's loss.

Finch led the Timberwolves to the Western Conference Finals last year, and he is now the first coach in franchise history to advance past the first round in back to back seasons. In contrast, Redick is a first year NBA coach with no prior coaching experience beyond the youth level, and his NBA playoff coaching resume now shows a 1-4 record while coaching the third seeded team versus the sixth seeded team. When a reporter asked Redick a reasonable question about his substitution patterns, Redick arrogantly scoffed, "Weird assumption" before storming out of the press conference. Redick's combination of arrogance with lack of knowledge is not likely to lead to sustained success.

This year, the shorthanded Lakers beat the shorthanded, dysfunctional Houston Rockets 4-2 in the first round to give Redick his first playoff series win as a coach, but now they are halfway toward being swept in the second round. The Thunder are without the services of their second best player, Jalen Williams (grade 1 left hamstring strain), but they posted the NBA's best regular season despite him missing most of the season, and it is evident that they don't need him to beat the Lakers, who are missing their best player as Luka Doncic recovers from a left hamstring injury. The Thunder keep rolling along because they minimize distractions/drama while collectively playing hard and smart at both ends of the court. 

After the Thunder dispatch the Lakers, they will face the winner of the San Antonio-Minnesota series. The Minnesota Timberwolves may be the NBA's version of Rasputin--any time you count them out, they rise to the occasion. Maybe we should not be surprised that a team that has reached the Western Conference Finals each of the past two years is resilient and tough. The Thunder lost Donte DiVincenzo to a season-ending torn right Achilles, Ayo Dosunmu is out with calf and heel injuries, and Anthony Edwards is hobbling around with a left knee hyperextension and bone bruise, but the Timberwolves took out the Denver Nuggets in six games in the first round before beating the Spurs 104-102 in game one to steal homecourt advantage. The Spurs bounced back to win game two 133-95 but now must play the next two games in Minnesota. The Timberwolves are a veteran team with a lot of positive recent playoff experience, while the Spurs' key rotation players have very little playoff experience. The Spurs need to get a split on the road to regain homecourt advantage, and two wins would put them in the driver's seat heading back home for game five. Game three will tell us a lot about how long this series will last, because this is the Spurs' first real postseason challenge after winning 4-1 in the first round versus the outmatched Portland Trail Blazers. I picked the Spurs to beat the Timberwolves in six games, and if the teams split the next two games then we are probably on track for that result, because I expect the shorthanded Timberwolves to wear down as this series progresses.

Labels: Cleveland Cavaliers, Detroit Pistons, J.J. Redick, James Harden, L.A. Lakers, Minnesota Timberwolves, New York Knicks, Oklahoma City Thunder, Philadelphia 76ers, San Antonio Spurs

posted by David Friedman @ 9:31 AM

1 comments