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Monday, January 18, 2021

Nets Edge Bucks as Durant and Harden Lead the Way

In an exciting game that may prove to be an Eastern Conference Finals preview, the Brooklyn Nets beat the Milwaukee Bucks 125-123. James Harden scored a game-high 34 points, and he also had a game-high 12 assists plus six rebounds. Kevin Durant finished with 30 points, nine rebounds, and six assists. Giannis Antetokounmpo, who has traded verbal barbs with Harden before, led Milwaukee in scoring (34 points), rebounds (12), and assists (seven), but he was stationed beyond the midcourt line at the start of Milwaukee's game-ending out of bounds play, a strange deployment of the reigning two-time MVP with the Bucks only needing two points to tie. Khris Middleton, who missed a jumper as time expired, had 25 points, four rebounds, and four assists. The Nets won the rebounding battle 49-41, and they outshot the Bucks from the field .548 to .438. The Bucks kept the game close by forcing 17 turnovers while only committing five turnovers. 

Much attention is being paid to Harden's numbers in his first two games as a Net: 32 points, 14 assists, and 12 rebounds in his debut, followed by his strong game versus the Bucks. I have yet to see, read, or hear anyone mention the numbers that Julius Erving posted in 1973 in his first two games as a Net: 42 points, 18 rebounds, three assists and four blocked shots in his debut, followed by 38 points and 13 rebounds in the encore. Those games are not less valid or less relevant because they took place nearly 50 years ago in the ABA. The NFL fully recognizes AFL statistics, and the NBA must do likewise with ABA statistics.

It has also been asserted that Durant has set a Nets' franchise record by scoring at least 25 points in 10 consecutive games--but during Erving's first season with the Nets he scored at least 25 points in 13 consecutive games, and he had a 13 game streak of 25 point games during the 1975-76 season. Further, Rick Barry scored at least 25 points in the final 12 games of the 1970-71 season. Barry did not reach the 25 point mark in the first game of the 1971-72 season, but he had an 11 game streak of 25 point games later during that campaign.

During the 1975-76 season, Erving also had an 11 game streak of 25 point games, and a 10 game streak of 25 point games. The 13 game streak ended with a 23 point game that immediately preceded the 11 game streak, so Erving had a run of 25 games during which he scored at least 25 points 24 times. During that 11 game streak, Erving had a game during which he scored 44 points immediately followed by a game during which he scored 40 points, grabbed 20 rebounds, dished for nine assists, accumulated six steals, and blocked four shots. Erving scored at least 20 points in each of the first 27 games of the 1975-76 season.

The NBA and its media partners consistently pretend that ABA games never happened and that ABA records do not exist. This would be like the NFL and its media partners pretending that Joe Namath did not post the first 4000 yard passing season in pro football history.

More significant than how Erving started off the 1973-74 season or how well he played during the  season is how Erving finished that campaign: he won the regular season MVP, and then he won the Finals MVP after leading the Nets to the ABA title. Similarly, in 1975-76 Erving won the regular season MVP, and then he won the Finals MVP after leading the Nets to the ABA title. He also won the scoring title during both seasons, and he was selected for the All-Defensive Team in 1976.

Any student of basketball history or advocate for truthful reporting must cringe after reading or hearing about Durant setting a franchise record that is not really a franchise record.

Maybe Durant and Harden will win a title with the Nets, but even if they do that would not diminish the permanent place that Erving carved out for himself in Nets history, in ABA history, and in pro basketball history. Erving's playoff career in general is underrated--he won three championships and he led his team to the "Final Four" (the Division Finals or Conference Finals) 10 times, including nine times in his first 12 seasons--and his playoff career with the Nets was extraordinary and remains unappreciated.

The Nets are playing very well now with Durant and Harden running the show, but this is the honeymoon period for Harden with a new team. Harden is happy that he succeeded in forcing his way out of Houston to Brooklyn, and he is eager to prove that he can fit it in with the Nets, a process that has perhaps been simplified due to the ongoing unexplained absence of Kyrie Irving, who was originally slotted to be the team's second option behind Durant. It will be interesting to see what this team's chemistry looks like after Irving returns to action--and it will be even more interesting to see what this team looks like in the crucible of playoff competition, where Durant and Irving have earned their championship stripes but Harden has consistently performed poorly. In this small sample size of two games, Harden has often handled the ball down the stretch. Perhaps that will continue to work during the regular season, but I would not trust Harden handling the ball down the stretch in playoff games, particularly in playoff games versus elite teams.

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posted by David Friedman @ 11:36 PM

8 comments

8 Comments:

At Tuesday, January 19, 2021 5:55:00 AM, Blogger Matthias said...

Their recent success might be nice but I would be very frustrated, if I were Durant. I don't know. Did he have a say in the decision to trade for Harden? (By the way, how many free throws did Harden have generating those 30something points?) The moment nets made the trade, the chances for a successful title run in my opinion went down drastically.

I can't believe Durant will enjoy playing with Harden, but who knows. (He certainly should know and maybe he can lead him.)

Hmm, and the icing on the cake are the recent problems with Irving. I think its not that far fetched, that the decision to leave the warriors could cost Durant a couple precious years of his career. There was no guarantee with Curry et. al. but at least this franchise has a history of mostly good decision making and competitiveness. The Nets? Not really.

In his favor it could be sad, that he tried to be the man (aka the leader, ...). But essentially that's what he was in Golden State, even with Curry. Almost no team in history could win it all with only one superstar. There were always at least one or two other, which haven't reached the superstar status in that moment or which where behind their prime.

But maybe that is human, especially for highly competitive and successful people. They want to be the best, the number one, which is difficult if you are part of a winning team build by highly competitive "alphas" and a lot of "selfless" whisperers around all of them.
(By the way, that's why Tom Brady is so amazing. Extremely competitive but not the usual self centered superstar. Almost every time trying to find the best way to win instead of only playing to maximize his own stats. Although it could be sad he is maximizing his stats in a way nobody else could ;-) by winning more then anybody thought possible.)

Nevertheless I certainly wish Durant luck and success with the nets and especially his (new) teammates, because I think he is certainly one of the nicest MVP caliber players in the NBA.

Matthias

 
At Tuesday, January 19, 2021 11:45:00 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Sometimes it takes a true alpha to get the most out of a talented "head case". For example, Rodman was off the deep end as a Spur, but MJ corralled his mental side -- and Rodman was an integral part of the second 3-peat teams. Isn't it possible Durant will have the same effect on Harden, as Harden finally realizes that (per your writings) he can't win a ring as the alpha, so now he's willing to be the #2 guy, since Durant is such a legit alpha? (Of course Irving is an add'l variable, but that's beyond the scope of my comment)

 
At Tuesday, January 19, 2021 2:09:00 PM, Blogger David Friedman said...

Matthias:

My impression both in this instance and in general is that Durant and most if not all other top tier stars have a lot of influence regarding personnel moves.

I agree with your assessment of the Nets' chances, but Durant seems to have pushed for this move. Perhaps he is not confident that Irving will show up--literally and or figuratively--for the playoffs.

If Harden changes his mentality and the way that he plays then his talent could provide a boost for the Nets, I but would have to see that happen before I believe it.

 
At Tuesday, January 19, 2021 2:13:00 PM, Blogger David Friedman said...

Anonymous:

Rodman's issues were not regarding playing hard or not understanding his role, but rather his off court actions and his ability/willingness to control his on court behavior (in terms of technical fouls, flagrant fouls, etc.). Rodman had already been a role player for two championship teams before playing with Michael Jordan, though it would be correct to say that in Detroit he also had a true alpha (Isiah Thomas) to keep him in line.

Harden does not always play hard--particularly on defense--and he consistently chokes during the playoffs.

Perhaps Durant will have the effect on Harden that you describe, but I will believe it when I see it.

 
At Tuesday, January 19, 2021 4:15:00 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Anonymous, Harden definitely could've won as an alpha. But, he was quite unlucky to have to go up against the GS super teams in the middle of his prime. The only times GS lost from 2015-2019 was in 2016 when they squandered a 3-1 lead in the Finals, but that was without Durant, and CLE needed a 1-game suspension from Green as well; and then in the 2019 Finals when GS suffered several injuries to key players or else it would've been very unlikely that TOR would've won. HOU was up 3-2 in the 2018 WCF which ended up being the de facto NBA Finals as GS steamrolled CLE in the actual Finals. Harden still led his team to halftime leads(without Paul) in those final 2 games, too.

I'm not really sure who'd be a true alpha either. Durant had Westbrook and excellent casts for several in OKC and only made the Finals once, and that was with another future MVP. GS likely wins at least once without him in 2017 or 2018, too. Pretty easy situation for Durant to go into. Curry only won once as the best player, but that was with him playing as the 3rd best player in the Finals in 2015 with an amazing AS cast around him. Giannis has been quite underwhelming these past 2 postseasons. Davis is very erratic and did almost nothing before LAL. James maybe, but he's had title-worthy casts and then some almost his entire career. What he's done with what's he had to work with seems greatly underachieving to me, at least for how's he viewed overall by the public amongst the all-time greats.

BRK is looking good to win the East, but after Harden/Durant, their roster isn't very good(Irving is a big question mark in more ways than one). But, beating LAL is another matter. Even if Harden/Durant outplay James/Davis by a slight margin, LAL's cast should more than makeup for that for a series win.

 
At Tuesday, January 19, 2021 5:58:00 PM, Blogger David Friedman said...

Anonymous:

Zaza Pachulia should have been the MVP for Golden State in 2017, because if he had not taken out Kawhi Leonard with a dirty (and now illegal) play when the Spurs were leading by 21 in the third quarter then GS might not have even made it to the Finals that year.

There are many circumstances that determine who wins and who does not win. You selectively listed a few, and I laughed out loud when I read the part about Harden leading Houston to "halftime leads." Let me know when the NBA (or any league) starts handing out trophies for "halftime leads." I recall that the Lakers had halftime leads during the 1983 Finals, before being swept by the Philadelphia 76ers. There are many other examples. It is more pertinent that Harden repeatedly chokes and disappears in the biggest games. I could not care less about how many "halftime leads" he has obtained during his career. He has lost the final game of the season every year of his career, usually after he has performed horribly.

It seems like by your reckoning the NBA does not have a "true alpha." I would suggest that at any given time there are probably five or fewer such players in the league, but I don't think that there has ever been a time when there were none. "True alpha" may be a somewhat subjective determination but right now I would list (in no particular order) LeBron, Kawhi, and Durant without hesitation. If any of those guys is the best player on a team then that team has a chance to win a title. I would rank Giannis alongside those guys, but he does still have to prove it in the playoffs. Curry can win as the best player only if he has a whole lot of help. I would not rank him ahead of the four listed players. I have questions/doubts about any other active player in terms of being ranked in that "alpha" group. I would have put a younger, healthier Westbrook in that category, regardless of how many people disagree with that notion. Now, Westbrook is older, banged up, and not quite the same player, though--when healthy--he can still play at an MVP level, as we saw last season for a few months before COVID-19 shut the league down.

Harden is an upgraded version of Stephon Marbury or Gilbert Arenas. He piles up gaudy individual numbers, but loses in the playoffs. If Harden is willing to accept a lesser role, he could be the second or third option on a championship team. If he is going to monopolize the ball down the stretch then the ceiling for the Nets is the Conference Finals.

 
At Thursday, January 21, 2021 9:41:00 AM, Blogger Awet M said...

Caught some of the Nets-Cavs game last night.

While we should give them a month or two to figure it out, it is obvious that Kyrie Irving should be the one to sacrifice compared to Harden and Durant for the following reason: they are easily the superior scorers who can play different styles.

Moreover, Harden is one of the best at the pick and roll play in league history. That is why he and Durant clicked right away, going 2-0, despite not playing together for over 9 years.

 
At Thursday, January 21, 2021 11:49:00 AM, Blogger David Friedman said...

Awet:

The Nets will need time to figure things out, as was true for James-Wade-Bosh and most other "Big Three" combinations.

It should be obvious that Durant should sacrifice the least in terms of shot attempts, because he is the most versatile, efficient, and consistent scorer on the team.

Even though Harden and Irving are both dynamic scorers, I don't believe that having both of them on the court with Durant is necessarily the best approach, because all three like to isolate (but particularly Harden and Irving). James and Wade had to figure out how to mesh their overlapping skill sets, and the Heat became successful when James understood and accepted the number one role. For the Nets, the problem is different and more complicated. The best solution would be for Harden to be the sixth man, running a second unit comprised of three point shooters and possibly one rim-runner. However, I am not sure that either Harden or Irving will accept a bench role. Thus, the next best alternative would be to turn Harden into a de facto bench player: he would still start, but his minutes would be staggered such to minimize the on court time he shares with Durant and Irving. Another alternative would be to do that with Irving instead of Harden. The problem is that both of those guys are going to want to be on the court at the end, particularly if the score is close. Another factor is that Harden is a much more durable player than Irving, and that is one factor that weighs in favor of giving Harden a bigger role than Irving; if Irving gets hurt or goes AWOL, it is easier to fill the sixth man role than to fill a starter's role.

Last night, ESPN's Tim Legler noted that he was surprised by how much Harden monopolized the ball, because Legler feels that the team would benefit by having the ball in Durant's hands more often. That situation--and the Nets' mediocre defense--are the two biggest challenges that Nash faces. Unless Nash figures out the solution, and unless the players support his decisions, the Nets will not advance as far as many people expect/hope.

 

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