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Thursday, November 11, 2021

Five Early Season NBA Notes and Observations

New York Yankees' legend Yogi Berra once said, "It gets late early out there," referring to the sunlight while playing left field in Yankee Stadium. It may be getting late early for some NBA players and teams. New York Knicks' Coach Tom Thibodeau was recently asked how many games it takes for an NBA team to develop cohesion, and he replied, "You know what they say. When it's 10 games, you say we need 20. When it's 20, you say 30. When it's 30, you say it's 40. Before you know it, the season's over." He added a final comment that I won't repeat, expressing his opinion that the notion that a team needs a lot of games to find cohesion is, shall we say, bull manure.

With that in mind--and realizing that, with all due respect to Thibodeau--it is still early in the season--here are five notes and observations about an NBA season that is already more than 10% complete.

  1. One thought came to mind while watching Russell Westbrook score 25 points, pass for 14 assists, grab 12 rebounds, and compile a +10 plus/minus rating in the L.A. Lakers' 120-117 overtime win versus the Miami Heat yesterday: every All-Star who has played alongside LeBron James has submerged his talents and his statistics so that James can shine. That list of All-Stars includes Dwyane Wade, Chris Bosh, Kyrie Irving, Kevin Love, Anthony Davis, and Russell Westbrook. A James supporter could argue that this is the way the pecking order should be because of James' greatness and because this is a path leading to championships, but one could reply that other Pantheon-level players brought out the best in their All-Star teammates while winning championships. It is debatable that suppressing others' greatness is the best path to winning championships; after all, James' teams are just 4-6 in the NBA Finals. Westbrook has posted three triple doubles in his first 12 games as a Laker. LeBron James sat out all of Westbrook's triple double games, and the Lakers won two of those games.
  2. Forced to play under "new" basketball rules (also known as the rules under which basketball was played for several decades until the past few years), James Harden--the greatest scorer in NBA history, according to Daryl Morey--is averaging 18.2 ppg while shooting .409 from the field. Harden's teammate Kevin Durant, who never relied on the gimmicks that Harden used to post counterfeit numbers, is leading the NBA in scoring with a 29.5 ppg average while shooting .585 from the field. It is fascinating to see which players are most negatively impacted when basketball is officiated correctly, including two players--Harden and Damian Lillard--who were recently selected to the NBA's 75th Anniversary Team over several players who were both better pure scorers and better all-around players (including Adrian Dantley, Alex English, and Tracy McGrady).
  3. "Start none and there will be none" are good words to live by, and words that Markieff Morris should take to heart. Morris delivered a cheap shot to Nikola Jokic while Jokic was running at midcourt, and then Morris walked away as if Jokic is too soft or too scared to do anything about it. Rest assured that Morris was testing Jokic and delivering a message; anyone who has played competitive basketball at any level understands that, and anyone who has played competitive basketball at any level understands and respects Jokic's visceral reaction: Jokic went right back at Morris, delivering a forearm that knocked Morris to the ground. The NBA was right to suspend Jokic for a game--vigilante justice can be respected, but it is not tolerated under the letter of the law--but the NBA should tweak the rules so that the instigator receives a more severe punishment than the retaliator. Morris' cheap shot was correctly deemed a Flagrant Two Foul warranting automatic ejection, yet the NBA only fined him $50,000. Morris should have been suspended for at least one game, if not two. If the NBA punished instigators more severely then perhaps fewer players would be inclined to be instigators. Also, I respect Jimmy Butler as a player, but all of his antics after the incident happened and well after many people stood between him and Jokic earned Butler a nomination for the "Hold Me Back" team. The picture of Jokic sitting calmly on the bench while Butler did a whole bunch of yelling and gesturing speaks 1000 words. I have observed that the best response to "Meet me in (the back, the parking lot, etc.)" is "I am here right now. We don't have to go anywhere." I have yet to see any "Hold Me Back" team members do anything but walk away from such a response. Kobe Bryant's response to Ron Artest's jabbering-- "Oh, you're a standup comedian now"--is also classic. For those of you too young to remember, look up Calvin Murphy, Maurice Lucas, Alvin Robertson, and Charles Oakley to learn about four NBA players who were most assuredly not on the "Hold Me Back" team. Anyone on the "Hold Me Back" team would run--or get stomped--if confronted by the likes of Murphy, Lucas, Robertson, or Oakley in their primes.
  4. Six of the eight teams that I picked to make the Eastern Conference playoffs are currently in the top eight in the Eastern Conference standings. Washington and Cleveland are the two early surprise teams, while Atlanta and Boston have performed below my expectations. I began my season preview analysis of the Hawks by stating, "I am not convinced that the Hawks are for real"--which was not a majority viewpoint about the Hawks prior to the season--but I picked them to finish fourth and exit in the second round of the playoffs. Their run to the 2021 Eastern Conference Finals was a bit fluky, but it would be surprising if they missed the 2022 playoffs. I rejected the notion that the Celtics are a championship contender, ranking them fifth in the East. It has become apparent that this squad has serious chemistry issues, so the Celtics may have a tougher time righting the ship than the Hawks. Five of the Washington Wizards' eight wins are against the Celtics, Hawks, and Pacers, so it is not quite time to party like it is 1978 for Wizards' fans who dream of reviving the glory days of Elvin Hayes, Wes Unseld, and Bobby Dandridge. The Wizards appear to be better than I expected, but I will be shocked if they finish the season maintaining their current 60 win pace. The Cavaliers are my "home town" (or, to be more precise, home state) team, and I have fond memories of seeing them in person dating all the way back to the glory days of Mark Price, Brad Daugherty, Larry Nance, and Ron Harper. The Cavaliers have played eight of their first 12 games on the road, winning five of those eight games, but the loss of Collin Sexton due to a torn meniscus in his left knee is a huge blow. It will be interesting to see if Cleveland can sustain this good start without Sexton, who leads the team in scoring (16.0 ppg). The Cavaliers feature a balanced scoring attack this season with six double figure scorers (including Sexton) averaging between 12.9 ppg and 16.0 ppg.
  5. Seven of the eight teams that I picked to make the Western Conference playoffs are currently in the top eight in the Western Conference standings. The only mild surprise for me is that Memphis is in eighth place at 6-5, barely ahead of the 5-7 Portland Trail Blazers (who I picked to make the playoffs) and the 5-7 Sacramento Kings (who I did not pick to make the playoffs). In my season preview analysis, I suggested that the Grizzlies may sneak into the playoffs via the NBA Money Grab Play-In Tournament. The 10-1 Golden State Warriors are better than I expected sans Klay Thompson--who is expected to return to action later in the season--and the L.A. Lakers have had a well-documented uneven 7-5 start, but for the most part the Western Conference is shaping up according to my expectations.

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posted by David Friedman @ 9:35 PM

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