Reverbations From Doncic-Davis Trade Will be Felt for the Next 10 Years
"Blockbuster," "Shocker," and "Stunner" are three overused adjectives to describe NBA trades, but they all are apt regarding the three team deal headlined by Dallas' Luka Doncic going to the L.A. Lakers in exchange for Anthony Davis. Dallas also sent Maxi Kleber and Markieff Morris to the Lakers, and the Lakers sent Max Christie and a 2029 first round draft pick to the Mavericks. The Utah Jazz received Jalen Hood-Schifino from the Lakers plus two second round draft picks (one that originally belonged to the L.A. Clippers, and one that belonged to the Mavericks). Per Elias Sports Bureau, this is the first trade featuring two players who both made the All-NBA Team in the previous season.
LeBron James' public relations team (i.e., ESPN's Dave McMenamin and Brian Windhorst) claim that James did not push for this trade and had no prior knowledge that it would take place. It is difficult to believe that James--the Lakers' de facto general manager--had no input regarding a franchise-defining trade, and it is worth noting that James' public relations team pointed out that James highly respects Doncic and has long expressed a desire to play alongside Doncic; in other words, his public relations team is making sure that if this works out then James will get credit for wanting to team up with Doncic, but if this does not work out then James has plausible deniability. It seems more likely that the Lakers did this either because James explicitly asked for this or because the Lakers knew that James wanted to swap Davis for Doncic than that the Lakers did this with no input from James; however, considering that James is 40 years old and has led the Lakers past the first round just twice in his six seasons in L.A., it is possible that the Lakers have turned the page on the James era and are focusing on building around Doncic for the next 10 years or so.
It is interesting that regardless of James' input, this deal was initiated by the Mavericks, not the Lakers. The Mavericks decided that they preferred to trade Doncic than to pay him the "supermax" $345 million contract for which he would soon be eligible. Mavericks General Manager Nico Harrison said, "I believe that defense wins championships. I believe that getting an All-Defensive center
and an All-NBA player with a defensive mindset gives us a better chance.
We're built to win now and in the future." Alluding to the other big men already on Dallas’ roster, Harrison added, "I think if you look at the Cleveland Cavaliers, that's what you're going to see. Anthony's probably going to finish games at the 5, but you're going to
see those guys play together. And when the Lakers won, he played the
4." The Cavaliers have stunned the league this season not only with their league-best 40-9 record, but with their lineup featuring big men Evan Mobley and Jarrett Allen in an era during which many teams are going small and jacking up three pointers. It is interesting that despite the Cavaliers' frontcourt size they rank just 15th in rebounding and 26th in blocked shots while ranking first in three point field goal percentage and second in three point field goals made; they seem to have produced an effective blend of old school basketball and new school basketball.
The Mavericks have a 26-24 record, but they rank eighth in field goal percentage and eighth in defensive field goal percentage. They already have a good big man rotation featuring Dereck Lively II and Daniel Gafford, so it would seem that they were poised to make another deep playoff run once Doncic--who has been out of action for over a month with a calf injury--returned to the lineup, but there's the rub: it appears that the Mavericks became disenchanted with Doncic's conditioning, which they believe has caused him to be injury-prone. Is that a sufficient reason to give up on one of the NBA's five best players just as he enters his prime years?
Doncic won the 2019 Rookie of the Year award, and then he made the All-NBA First Team in each of the next five seasons. He is averaging 28.1 ppg, 8.3 rpg, and 7.8 apg this season, but is not eligible for 2024-25 postseason awards because he has already missed 28 regular season games and thus will not play in at least 65 regular season games this season. In his six seasons with Dallas, Doncic has twice led the Mavericks to the Western Conference Finals (2022, 2024), and he led the Mavericks to the 2024 NBA Finals.
Davis is a member of the NBA's 75th Anniversary Team who has made the All-NBA First Team four times (2015, 2017-18, 2020) and the All-NBA Second Team once (2024) in addition to earning five All-Defensive Team selections. He led the league in blocked shots three times (2014-15, 2018). Davis played an essential role for the Lakers' 2020 "bubble" championship team, but the Lakers have advanced past the first round just twice in his five full seasons with the team. Prior to joining the Lakers, Davis' New Orleans Pelicans advanced past the first round once in seven seasons. This season, Davis is averaging 25.7 ppg (15th in the league), 11.9 rpg (sixth), and 2.1 bpg (fourth) in 42 games.
The tried and true template for evaluating an NBA trade is to look at which team received the best player, while understanding that size matters in the NBA and that age also matters. There is little doubt that Doncic is a better player now than Davis, and Doncic is just shy of his 26th birthday, while Davis will soon turn 32. Davis is much taller than Doncic, and Davis has a major impact at both ends of the court while Doncic is an elite offensive player who struggles defensively, though he is Dallas' leader in defensive rebounds per game so far this season.
Thus, the Lakers are receiving the best player in the deal, and the best player is also six years younger than the second best player. It is not surprising that some commentators are giving the Lakers an "A" and giving the Mavericks an "F," but the injury history of both players and the roster composition of both teams should be considered as well. Doncic played at least 70 games in a season just twice in his first six seasons, and he will not get close to that number this season, while Davis played at least 70 games in a season just three times in his first 12 seasons. Davis may be in better shape than Doncic, but that has not translated into Davis being consistently available to play. Without Davis, the Lakers--who rank 19th in defensive field goal percentage and 27th in rebounding--have no rim protection and no paint presence. Even if Doncic and James both average 30 ppg the rest of the way, the Lakers may not be able to score enough points, get enough rebounds, and get enough stops to win consistently; they desperately need to add at least one competent defensive big man before the trade deadline to have any hope of getting past the first round of the playoffs. Meanwhile, the Mavericks now have great size and paint presence, but they are dependent on Kyrie Irving--who played at least 70 games in a season just three times in his first 13 seasons and is unlikely to play at least 70 games this season--not only for scoring but also for shot creation.
The positives for Davis--his size and his two-way impact--do not outweigh the reality that he has not been an All-NBA First Team player since 2020 and is not likely to be one again. Without Doncic and with Davis, the Mavericks' offense is likely to decline more than their defense is likely to improve, and they could be awful at both ends of the court if Davis and Irving both get injured at the same time.
More than any other NBA franchise, the Lakers are defined by consistently having one of the league's top five players on their roster, and the list of such players includes George Mikan, Elgin Baylor, Jerry West, Wilt Chamberlain, Kareem Abdul-Jabbar, Magic Johnson, Shaquille O'Neal, Kobe Bryant, and LeBron James. Doncic is poised to fill that slot for the next 5-10 years.
My short term assessment of this trade is that both the Lakers and the Mavericks are worse than they were before and both teams need to make at least one more move to balance out their rosters. The Lakers' long term prospects depend on their ability to build around Doncic after James retires or finishes his career with a different team. The Mavericks' long term prospects are murky, because within five years or less they will have to rebuild their team after Davis and Irving decline or retire. It is stunning that the Mavericks decided to trade potentially 10 years of All-NBA First Team Doncic for possibly five years of All-NBA Second Team (or worse) Anthony Davis.
Labels: Anthony Davis, Dallas Mavericks, Jalen Hood-Schifino, L.A. Lakers, LeBron James, Luka Doncic, Markieff Morris, Maxi Kleber, Utah Jazz
posted by David Friedman @ 12:31 AM
Evaluating the Kyrie Irving Trade
The Dallas Mavericks acquired Kyrie Irving and Markieff Morris from the Brooklyn Nets in exchange for Spencer Dinwiddie, Dorian Finney-Smith, a 2029 first round draft pick, and multiple second round draft picks.
Conventional NBA wisdom is that if any team can be considered the winner of a trade it would be the team that received the best player, even if the other team received several very good players. In basketball, a team fields just five players at a time--compared to nine in baseball and 11 in football--so a star can affect the outcome of a basketball game much more than a star can affect the outcome of a baseball game or a football game.
Kyrie Irving is an eight time All-Star who has made the All-NBA Team three times, won the 2012 Rookie of the Year Award, and made significant contributions as the Cleveland Cavaliers won the 2016 NBA title. He is averaging 27.1 ppg this season, and he has averaged at least 26.9 ppg each season since joining the Brooklyn Nets prior to the 2019-20 campaign. There is no question that he is the best player involved in the Brooklyn-Dallas trade.
Irving is also the first player traded in the middle of a season during which he is averaging at least 27 ppg, at least 5 apg, and at least 5 rpg. That tells you that he is perhaps the greatest player involved in a midseason trade--or that there is more to Irving's story than what the above numbers and honors suggest.
Consider these numbers: 60, 67, 20, 54, 29. Those are Irving's total number of games played for the previous five seasons (he has played in 40 of 53 possible games so far this season). Irving played less than 70 games in eight of his first 11 NBA seasons. He has a track record for being unavailable, unpredictable, and unreliable.
Irving missed eight games this season after the Nets suspended him for his unrepentant antisemitism. Irving is portrayed as an intelligent, thoughtful person, but promoting antisemitism and entertaining the notion that the Earth is flat are signs of--at best--misguided thinking, not intelligence and thoughtfulness.
Nets players are unlikely to admit it publicly, but Irving's departure is likely a relief for them, because they no longer have to wonder and worry about if he will show up for games, nor will they have to explain/excuse his absences and his bizarre viewpoints.
Mavericks players may be excited about Irving's talent, but Irving has worn out his welcome with each of his three teams--Cleveland, Boston, Brooklyn--and it would be surprising if he does not wear out his welcome in Dallas.
Could Irving team with MVP candidate Luka Doncic to lead Dallas to the NBA Finals and maybe even an NBA championship? From a talent standpoint that may seem superficially plausible--Doncic and Irving could be a fearsome duo on offense--but from an overall standpoint that seems unlikely, in no small part because of the depth and defense that Dallas gave up to acquire Irving; Finney-Smith is an elite defender, and Dinwiddie is at least a solid defender who is also capable of being a big-time scorer. It is more likely that the Mavericks fail to repeat last year's run to the Western Conference Finals than that they vault from the fifth seed (their current spot in the standings) to the NBA Finals.
From a skill set standpoint, Irving is an elite three level scorer who is an above average playmaker and a good rebounder for a guard. His ballhandling is very good, though somewhat overrated by those who value flash over substance. Irving's defense is subpar in general, though in short spurts he has demonstrated the ability to be solid (which raises the question of why he is not more consistent at that end of the court). Irving is a small player who is frequently injured.
It is true that Irving's presence will make it difficult for opponents to trap Doncic without getting burned, but the Doncic-Irving backcourt will light up the scoreboard at both ends of the court as opponents will now have a tasty choice of which guard to "hunt" when chasing matchups during playoff series that are all about matchups.
The players who the Nets received are far from being chumps. Dinwiddie is a former Net who averaged 20.6 ppg for Brooklyn in 2019-20. For the past two seasons, he has been a solid second or third option for Dallas. He can replace most of the scoring that Irving provided for the Nets, if not the playmaking and shot creation (both for himself and for his teammates). Finney-Smith is a prototypical "3 and D" wing who was Dallas' best perimeter defender.
"Stat gurus" discount the importance of chemistry, but something can be real and significant even it is not easily quantified. In this trade, the Nets gave up talent to obtain dependability, depth, and players who are coachable. Dinwiddie and Finney-Smith will not be in the headlines for the wrong reasons, and they will not do or say things that their teammates will then be asked to explain. Until Kevin Durant returns to action, the Nets are going nowhere fast--but if Durant can regain (and keep) his health then this deal improves their chances by stabilizing the roster. The Nets still lack size--and that will be fatal during the playoffs--but Irving's departure will prove to be addition by subtraction (unless Durant whines his way out of town, in which case the Nets instantly become irrelevant).
Speaking of Durant, he fled Oklahoma City in 2016 after the Thunder pushed the Golden State Warriors to seven games in the Western Conference Finals. Instead of embracing the challenge of trying to beat the Warriors, he won two Finals MVPs while leading the Warriors to back to back titles, but then he decided to team up with Irving in Brooklyn--a decision that, by any objective analysis, turned out disastrously, as Durant and the Nets failed to advance past the second round of the playoffs with that duo on the roster. No one should feel sorry for Durant, because he could have contended for titles alongside Russell Westbrook in Oklahoma City, and then he could have kept contending for titles in Golden State, but he chose to take a different path alongside a player who has fomented turmoil throughout his career. It would not be surprising if Durant now asks to be traded--something he did in the previous offseason before withdrawing the request--nor would it be surprising if Durant is as discontented with his new team as he became with each of his other teams.
By demanding a trade just before the trade deadline and making it clear that otherwise he would leave as a free agent, Irving did not give the Nets much leverage, so the Nets did quite well to obtain two starters, a first round draft pick, and multiple second round draft picks for a disgruntled and often unavailable star whose only sustained playoff success happened while playing alongside LeBron James. The Mavericks already reached the Western Conference Finals without Irving, so from their standpoint this trade is "NBA Finals or bust"--Irving may not stay with the team long term, and he almost certainly will become a distraction sooner rather than later, so we will find out in the 2023 playoffs if this was a good deal for them. On the other hand, the Nets still have enough pieces to do some damage in the playoffs while also acquiring enough assets to have some flexibility to make moves if Durant jumps ship. Each team received what it wanted, but I would be more nervous if I were a Mavericks fan than if I were a Nets fan; the Nets had a short championship window already given Durant's age and injury history, but the Mavericks are playing roulette with the roster surrounding a superstar entering his prime. The only time the Mavericks won a championship, they had one superstar surrounded by very good complementary players who defended well, as opposed to relying on two offensive juggernauts who are below average defensively. Dallas Coach Jason Kidd knows that very well, because he was the point guard for those 2011 championship Mavericks. It will be interesting to see if Irving respects Kidd enough to curb the behaviors that created such havoc in each of his previous stops.
Labels: Brooklyn Nets, Dallas Mavericks, Dorian Finney-Smith, Kevin Durant, Kyrie Irving, Luka Doncic, Markieff Morris, Spencer Dinwiddie
posted by David Friedman @ 8:39 AM
Five Early Season NBA Notes and Observations
New York Yankees' legend Yogi Berra once said, "It gets late early out there," referring to the sunlight while playing left field in Yankee Stadium. It may be getting late early for some NBA players and teams. New York Knicks' Coach Tom Thibodeau was recently asked how many games it takes for an NBA team to develop cohesion, and he replied, "You know what they say. When it's 10 games, you say we need 20. When it's 20, you say 30. When it's 30, you say it's 40. Before you know it, the season's over." He added a final comment that I won't repeat, expressing his opinion that the notion that a team needs a lot of games to find cohesion is, shall we say, bull manure.
With that in mind--and realizing that, with all due respect to Thibodeau--it is still early in the season--here are five notes and observations about an NBA season that is already more than 10% complete.
- One thought came to mind while watching Russell Westbrook score 25 points, pass for 14 assists, grab 12 rebounds, and compile a +10 plus/minus rating in the L.A. Lakers' 120-117 overtime win versus the Miami Heat yesterday: every All-Star who has played alongside LeBron James has submerged his talents and his statistics so that James can shine. That list of All-Stars includes Dwyane Wade, Chris Bosh, Kyrie Irving, Kevin Love, Anthony Davis, and Russell Westbrook. A James supporter could argue that this is the way the pecking order should be because of James' greatness and because this is a path leading to championships, but one could reply that other Pantheon-level players brought out the best in their All-Star teammates while winning championships. It is debatable that suppressing others' greatness is the best path to winning championships; after all, James' teams are just 4-6 in the NBA Finals. Westbrook has posted three triple doubles in his first 12 games as a Laker. LeBron James sat out all of Westbrook's triple double games, and the Lakers won two of those games.
- Forced to play under "new" basketball rules (also known as the rules under which basketball was played for several decades until the past few years), James Harden--the greatest scorer in NBA history, according to Daryl Morey--is averaging 18.2 ppg while shooting .409 from the field. Harden's teammate Kevin Durant, who never relied on the gimmicks that Harden used to post counterfeit numbers, is leading the NBA in scoring with a 29.5 ppg average while shooting .585 from the field. It is fascinating to see which players are most negatively impacted when basketball is officiated correctly, including two players--Harden and Damian Lillard--who were recently selected to the NBA's 75th Anniversary Team over several players who were both better pure scorers and better all-around players (including Adrian Dantley, Alex English, and Tracy McGrady).
- "Start none and there will be none" are good words to live by, and words that Markieff Morris should take to heart. Morris delivered a cheap shot to Nikola Jokic while Jokic was running at midcourt, and then Morris walked away as if Jokic is too soft or too scared to do anything about it. Rest assured that Morris was testing Jokic and delivering a message; anyone who has played competitive basketball at any level understands that, and anyone who has played competitive basketball at any level understands and respects Jokic's visceral reaction: Jokic went right back at Morris, delivering a forearm that knocked Morris to the ground. The NBA was right to suspend Jokic for a game--vigilante justice can be respected, but it is not tolerated under the letter of the law--but the NBA should tweak the rules so that the instigator receives a more severe punishment than the retaliator. Morris' cheap shot was correctly deemed a Flagrant Two Foul warranting automatic ejection, yet the NBA only fined him $50,000. Morris should have been suspended for at least one game, if not two. If the NBA punished instigators more severely then perhaps fewer players would be inclined to be instigators. Also, I respect Jimmy Butler as a player, but all of his antics after the incident happened and well after many people stood between him and Jokic earned Butler a nomination for the "Hold Me Back" team. The picture of Jokic sitting calmly on the bench while Butler did a whole bunch of yelling and gesturing speaks 1000 words. I have observed that the best response to "Meet me in (the back, the parking lot, etc.)" is "I am here right now. We don't have to go anywhere." I have yet to see any "Hold Me Back" team members do anything but walk away from such a response. Kobe Bryant's response to Ron Artest's jabbering-- "Oh, you're a standup comedian now"--is also classic. For those of you too young to remember, look up Calvin Murphy, Maurice Lucas, Alvin Robertson, and Charles Oakley to learn about four NBA players who were most assuredly not on the "Hold Me Back" team. Anyone on the "Hold Me Back" team would run--or get stomped--if confronted by the likes of Murphy, Lucas, Robertson, or Oakley in their primes.
- Six of the eight teams that I picked to make the Eastern Conference playoffs are currently in the top eight in the Eastern Conference standings. Washington and Cleveland are the two early surprise teams, while Atlanta and Boston have performed below my expectations. I began my season preview analysis of the Hawks by stating, "I am not convinced that the Hawks are for real"--which was not a majority viewpoint about the Hawks prior to the season--but I picked them to finish fourth and exit in the second round of the playoffs. Their run to the 2021 Eastern Conference Finals was a bit fluky, but it would be surprising if they missed the 2022 playoffs. I rejected the notion that the Celtics are a championship contender, ranking them fifth in the East. It has become apparent that this squad has serious chemistry issues, so the Celtics may have a tougher time righting the ship than the Hawks. Five of the Washington Wizards' eight wins are against the Celtics, Hawks, and Pacers, so it is not quite time to party like it is 1978 for Wizards' fans who dream of reviving the glory days of Elvin Hayes, Wes Unseld, and Bobby Dandridge. The Wizards appear to be better than I expected, but I will be shocked if they finish the season maintaining their current 60 win pace. The Cavaliers are my "home town" (or, to be more precise, home state) team, and I have fond memories of seeing them in person dating all the way back to the glory days of Mark Price, Brad Daugherty, Larry Nance, and Ron Harper. The Cavaliers have played eight of their first 12 games on the road, winning five of those eight games, but the loss of Collin Sexton due to a torn meniscus in his left knee is a huge blow. It will be interesting to see if Cleveland can sustain this good start without Sexton, who leads the team in scoring (16.0 ppg). The Cavaliers feature a balanced scoring attack this season with six double figure scorers (including Sexton) averaging between 12.9 ppg and 16.0 ppg.
- Seven of the eight teams that I picked to make the Western Conference playoffs are currently in the top eight in the Western Conference standings. The only mild surprise for me is that Memphis is in eighth place at 6-5, barely ahead of the 5-7 Portland Trail Blazers (who I picked to make the playoffs) and the 5-7 Sacramento Kings (who I did not pick to make the playoffs). In my season preview analysis, I suggested that the Grizzlies may sneak into the playoffs via the NBA
Money Grab Play-In Tournament. The 10-1 Golden State Warriors are better than I expected sans Klay Thompson--who is expected to return to action later in the season--and the L.A. Lakers have had a well-documented uneven 7-5 start, but for the most part the Western Conference is shaping up according to my expectations.
Labels: Cleveland Cavaliers, Damian Lillard, Denver Nuggets, James Harden, L.A. Lakers, LeBron James, Markieff Morris, Miami Heat, Nikola Jokic, Russell Westbrook, Washington Wizards
posted by David Friedman @ 9:35 PM
The L.A. Lakers' "Small Ball" Lineup
Much has been made of the L.A. Lakers supposedly playing a "small ball" lineup in the final three games of the second round as the Lakers beat the Houston Rockets 4-1. The Lakers moved Markieff Morris to the starting lineup in place of JaVale McGee. The new lineup was no doubt smaller (McGee is 7-0; Morris is 6-8), but was it really a "small ball" lineup? Anthony Davis is 6-10, LeBron James is 6-9, Morris is 6-8, Danny Green is 6-6, and Kentavious Caldwell-Pope is 6-5; the "small ball" lineup averages 6-9 in the frontcourt, and averages nearly 6-8 overall, while the original starting lineup averages 6-9.5 in the frontcourt and a little over 6-8 overall. By comparison, the 1986 Boston Celtics--who went 67-15 and won the NBA title with the legendary Larry Bird-Kevin McHale-Robert Parish frontcourt--averaged 6-10.5 in the frontcourt and 6-8 overall. No one would argue that those Celtics were a "small ball" team, yet the supposedly "small ball" Lakers are just as big as the 1986 Celtics.
The Rockets' starting lineup after going to "small ball" was Robert Covington (6-7), P.J. Tucker (6-5), Eric Gordon (6-3), James Harden (6-5), and Russell Westbrook (6-3). That lineup averages 6-5 in the frontcourt and 6-4.5 overall. The Rockets' tallest starter is one inch taller than the tallest Lakers' starting guard, and one inch shorter than the smallest frontcourt player in the Lakers' "small ball" lineup.
When media members assert that the Lakers went to "small ball" to beat the Rockets, that falsely suggests that the Lakers had to fundamentally change in order to prevail against the Rockets' gimmicky approach. The reality is that the Lakers can play very big, big, or small, and the Lakers chose to play big versus the Rockets. The Lakers dominated the Rockets in the paint while also shutting down the Rockets' three point shooting. Despite all of the hype and rhetoric about the value of "small ball," it remains true that size--specifically height--matters in the NBA.
Through the first three games of the Western Conference Finals versus the Denver Nuggets, the Lakers reinserted JaVale McGee into the starting lineup in place of Markieff Morris, though Morris has logged five more minutes than McGee. Despite the large number of three pointers launched by most NBA teams in recent years, to win an NBA championship it is still essential to have a paint presence at both ends of the court.
Labels: Anthony Davis, Danny Green, JaVale McGee, Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, Kyle Kuzma, L.A. Lakers, LeBron James, Markieff Morris
posted by David Friedman @ 10:07 PM
