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Miami Versus Philadelphia Preview

Eastern Conference Second Round

#1 Miami (53-29) vs. #4 Philadelphia (51-31)

Season series: Tied, 2-2

Philadelphia can win if…Joel Embiid dominates the paint at both ends of the court. Embiid averaged 26.2 ppg on .520 field goal shooting during Philadelphia's 4-2 first round series win versus Toronto, but those numbers are deceptive. Embiid is often injured and/or not in peak condition during the postseason, and 2022 is no exception: Embiid suffered torn ligaments in his right thumb during game three, and he has not been the same player in his last three games, averaging 24.7 ppg while shooting .467 or worse from the field in two of those three games. The 76ers just announced that Embiid suffered a right orbital fracture and mild concussion after receiving an elbow from Pascal Siakam late in game six. Embiid's current status is "out indefinitely," and without him the 76ers have no chance to win this series.

This season, Embiid won his first scoring title (30.6 ppg). If Embiid had stayed healthy and if he could have averaged at least 30 ppg with .550+ field goal shooting while also protecting the paint defensively, then this could have been a competitive series, but a right orbital fracture is a series-ending injury, which means that it will also be a season-ending injury.

During the first round, Tyrese Maxey emerged as the 76ers' second scoring option, averaging 21.3 ppg with excellent shooting splits (.511/.405/.950). He was the difference in the series, most notably during times when Embiid was not dominant. Maxey benefits from the defensive attention that Embiid attracts, but he is also capable of creating his own shot, particularly in transition. If Maxey had played at his normal level then the series would have at least gone the distance, and quite possibly the final outcome would have been different.

Tobias Harris has struggled a bit since the 76ers acquired James Harden, but he had a very good series versus Toronto (17.8 ppg, 9.5 rpg, shooting splits of .519/.433/.875).

Whether by accident, design, or necessity, the 76ers figured out the truth of what I have said about James Harden for the past decade: he cannot be the best player on a championship contender, and it is not clear if he can be the second best player on a championship contender. Harden ranked third on the 76ers in scoring (19.0 ppg) and minutes (40.5 mpg) in the first round. He led the team in assists (10.2 apg).

The notion that Embiid and Harden form a duo that should be compared with the 76ers' legendary Moses Malone-Julius Erving duo or with the more recent legendary Shaquille O'Neal-Kobe Bryant duo is laughable. Bryant, Erving, and O'Neal are each Pantheon level players, while Malone is not far below Pantheon level (and he played at a Pantheon level in the first year that he partnered with Erving, winning the 1983 season MVP and the 1983 Finals MVP). Embiid is a talented player who has yet to advance past the second round of the playoffs. Harden has been overrated for most of his career, and he has choked in most of his biggest playoff moments. The 2022 76ers lost more games in the first round to an injury-depleted Toronto team than the Malone-Erving 76ers lost during their entire 1983 championship run.

The narrative that is gathering currency now is that Harden is over the hill. Harden is 32 years old and he averaged 37.2 mpg this season. He is not old, and there is no indication that he is injured. The reality is that his game depended to a significant extent on "flop and flail," so the NBA's belated crackdown on that nonsense has rendered much of Harden's game ineffective: he can no longer rely on being bailed out on either his drives or his three pointers, which means (1) he is forced to make shots and (2) defenders can guard him closely without fear of being whistled for phantom fouls. No, Harden has not lost a step--he is who we (or at least I) thought he was! Unless the NBA reinstates "flop and flail," Harden's "concert tour" field goal percentages are not going to improve. What about game six versus Toronto? Harden shot 7-12 (.583) from the field. Does that presage a return of "Houston MVP" Harden? I doubt it. That is just the third time in his past nine playoff games that he shot at least .500 from the field. In 143 career playoff games, his field goal percentage is .427. He shot .405 from the field versus Toronto, and it will be surprising if he shoots much better than that versus a Miami team that is more talented and deeper than Toronto.

It will be revealing to see how Harden performs versus Miami without Embiid. Harden will have every opportunity to prove that he is as great as so many people have proclaimed him to be.

Miami will win because…the Heat's elite defense will stifle Philadelphia's offense. The Heat lack size, but during the regular season they ranked fourth in points allowed and fourth in defensive field goal percentage. The Heat held the Atlanta Hawks to 97.4 ppg on .440 field goal shooting during a 4-1 first round series win, and the Heat limited Trae Young to 15.4 ppg on .319 field goal shooting. During the regular season, Young averaged 28.4 ppg on career-high .460 field goal shooting. Embiid is a much better player than Young, but even in the unlikely event that he comes back from the orbital fracture the Heat will make him work for his points, and the Heat will not concede nearly as many wide open shots to his teammates as short-handed Toronto did.

Miami does not have a great offense, but the Heat will get enough scoring from Jimmy Butler, Tyler Herro, and Bam Adebayo to more than keep pace with the 76ers. Victor Oladipo averaged 14.5 ppg in two games versus Atlanta, and he could provide a big boost if he is healthy enough to become a full-fledged member of the rotation. Kyle Lowry suffered a hamstring injury during game three that caused him to miss the rest of that game plus games four and five. His healthy return to action would help the Heat at both ends of the court, but the Heat have enough talent and depth to beat the 76ers even without him.

The caveat is that this preview is written with the assumption that Butler will return to action when the series begins. Butler sat out game five versus Atlanta due to knee soreness, but there is no indication that he is seriously injured. If he is limited by injury then it will be more difficult for the Heat to win this series, particularly if Lowry is also limited or out of the lineup.

Other things to consider: The Heat may be flying under the radar more than any other number one seeded team in recent memory. The early season championship talk focused on the Brooklyn Nets and L.A. Lakers, and more recent championship conversation has centered on the Phoenix Suns, Golden State Warriors, and Boston Celtics, but the Heat not only finished first in the Eastern Conference but they dismantled an Atlanta team that reached the Eastern Conference Finals last year. 

Butler's leadership style may rub some people the wrong way, but all of the evidence indicates that (1) he is focused on team success and (2) he makes a significant contribution to team success at both ends of the court. His numbers are sometimes not quite as gaudy as the numbers posted by MVP candidates, but he is capable of having a similar impact, as he demonstrated during Miami's 2020 run to the NBA Finals and during the Atlanta series (30.5 ppg, 7.8 rpg, 5.3 apg, 2.8 spg, shooting splits of .543/.438/.794). 

Butler averaged 19.4 ppg for the 76ers in the 2019 playoffs but the 76ers traded him to Miami after he spent just one season with Philadelphia. Butler then led the Heat to the 2020 NBA Finals, while the 76ers have yet to get past the second round during the "Process" era that has most assuredly not resulted in "tanking to the top." Miami and Philadelphia have vastly different roster construction philosophies. The Heat focus on being the best team that they can be each season, while the 76ers spent several years tanking even though the evidence shows that tanking does not work. 

I would have predicted a six game Miami win if Embiid were available for the entire series, and I am tempted to predict a Miami sweep if Embiid misses the entire series, but Miami winning in five games is my pick.

Labels: Bam Adebayo, James Harden, Jimmy Butler, Joel Embiid, Miami Heat, Philadelphia 76ers, Tyler Herro, Tyrese Maxey

posted by David Friedman @ 9:00 PM

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