20 Second Timeout

Implications of the Miami Heat's Reported Acquisition of Giannis Antetokounmpo

NBA trades for the upcoming season do not become official until July 6, but assuming that the reports are correct and that nothing happens to scuttle the deal, the Milwaukee Bucks will send franchise cornerstone Giannis Antetokounmpo to the Miami Heat along with Bobby Portis in exchange for Tyler Herro, Kel'el Ware, Jaime Jaquez Jr., Kasparas Jakucionis, three first round draft picks, a second round draft pick, and a pick swap. No other teams are reported to be involved at this time, but last year the Kevin Durant trade that initially included just the Houston Rockets and the Phoenix Suns morphed into a massive seven team deal.

In general, the winner of an NBA trade is the team that acquires the best player involved in that deal; in basketball, several good players rarely are as valuable as one great player, and hoarding draft picks is akin to trading in risky futures and commodities: for draft picks to pay off, the person making the selections must be a skilled talent evaluator, the players who are drafted must be blessed with good health, and the coaching staff must do well at talent development. I would rather have a great player now than the potential of drafting a great player later, but that viewpoint is not universally held. 

Pat Riley has been the Miami Heat's president since 1995, and his consistent team building modus operandi relies not on hoarding draft picks but on trading for players who have earned multiple All-Star selections: the list of All-Stars who Riley acquired by trade includes Tim Hardaway, Alonzo Mourning, Shaquille O'Neal, LeBron James (via sign and trade after the infamous "Decision"), Chris Bosh, and Jimmy Butler. 

Antetokounmpo performed better last season (27.6 ppg, 9.8 rpg, 5.4 apg, .624 FG%) than any of the above players did in their season prior to joining the Heat with the exception of James, who won the 2010 regular season MVP before fleeing Cleveland to form the first "super team" of the modern era. The only downside regarding Antetokounmpo is that injuries limited him to a career-low 36 games last season--Antetokounmpo played in at least 61 games in each of his other 12 NBA seasons, and he finished fourth or better in regular season MVP voting for seven straight seasons (2019-25) while winning back to back MVPs in 2019-20. It will be interesting to see how fit and healthy Antetokounmpo is with the Heat, a team that is notorious for demanding that its players maintain high conditioning levels with low body fat percentages. Antetokounmpo is just 31 years old, and we have seen in recent years that well-conditioned NBA stars can play at an elite level past age 35--and, in LeBron James' case, past 40.

In 2021, Antetokounmpo led the Bucks to their second NBA title 50 years after the 1971 Bucks featuring Hall of Famers Kareem Abdul-Jabbar, Oscar Robertson, and Bob Dandridge swept the Baltimore Bullets in the NBA Finals. Antetokounmpo scored 50 points in Milwaukee's series-clinching game six win versus the Phoenix Suns, tying Bob Pettit's record for the most points scored in a Finals-clinching victory while also becoming just the sixth player to have at least three 40 point games in one NBA Finals. Antetokpoumpo joined Michael Jordan and Hakeem Olajuwon as the only three players who have won a regular season MVP, a Finals MVP and a Defensive Player of the Year award (the Finals MVP was first awarded in 1969, and the Defensive Player of the Year award was first bestowed in 1983). Antetokounmpo averaged 35.2 ppg, 13.2 rpg, and 5.0 apg in the Finals while shooting .618 from the field, the first player in Finals history to post all of those numbers in the same series. 

However, since that championship run the Bucks have not been a potent playoff team: they lost in the second round in 2022, and then suffered three straight first round exits before not even qualifying for the Play-In Tournament in 2026. After the Heat eliminated the Bucks in five games in the first round of the 2023 playoffs, Antetokounmpo responded to a question about the Bucks' season being a failure:

You asked me the same question last year, Eric. Do you get a promotion every year? No, right? So, every year you work is a failure? Yes or no? No. Every year you work, you work toward something--toward a goal--which is to get a promotion, to be able to take care of your family, to be able to provide a house for them or take care of your parents. You work toward a goal. It's not a failure. It's steps to success. If you've never--I don't want to make it personal.

Michael Jordan played 15 years. Won six championships. The other nine years was a failure? That's what you're telling me? I'm asking you a question...Exactly, so why you ask me that question? It's the wrong question. There's no failure in sports. There's good days, bad days, some days you are able to be successful, some days you are not, some days it is your turn, some days it's not. That's what sports is about. You don't always win. Some other group is gonna win, and this year somebody else is gonna win. Simple as that. We’re gonna come back next year and try to be better, try to build good habits, try to play better--not have a 10 day stretch of playing bad basketball. Hopefully we can win a championship.

So, 50 years from 1971 to 2021 that we didn't win a championship, it was 50 years of failure? No, it was not. There were steps to it. And we were able to win one and hopefully we can win another one.

Sorry, I didn't want to make it personal, because you asked me the same question last year, and last year I wasn't in the right mind space to answer the question back--but I remember it.

Antetokounmpo understands that it is not possible to win a championship every year and that a season without winning a championship is not automatically a failure--but he also wants to have more chances to win another title before he retires. After it became apparent that the Bucks' championship window had closed, Antetokounmpo wanted out while the Bucks wanted to rebuild. 

The Heat now have an excellent and versatile frontcourt anchored by Antetokounmpo, three-time All-Star/six-time All-Defensive Team member Bam Adebayo, 2022 All-Star/2022 NBA champion Andrew Wiggins, and 2021 NBA champion Bobby Portis. The Heat are very thin in the backcourt, and they are likely to lose 2026 All-Star shooting guard Norman Powell in free agency. Davion Mitchell is serviceable at best as a starting point guard, and even if the Heat run their halfcourt offense through Antetokounmpo they still need point guards who can run the fastbreak and defend opposing point guards. The Heat also need to replace the three point shooting provided by Herro and Powell (assuming that Powell does not return). 

Until the Heat upgrade their backcourt, their realistic best case scenario is a 50 win regular season followed by a second round exit--but if they improve their backcourt then they can be a championship contender. In the 12 seasons since James left the Heat to return to Cleveland in 2014, the Heat missed the playoffs four times (including last season), lost in the first round four times, lost in the second round once, reached the Eastern Conference Finals three times, and lost in the NBA Finals twice; even if the Heat lose in the second round next season, that will be a better finish than they had in eight of the previous 12 seasons. Clearly, Riley did not acquire Antetokounmpo with the goal of losing in the second round; the point is that there is a limit to how far a team can go without an MVP-caliber player, and now the Heat have such a player for the first time in a dozen years.

The Heat's future may be uncertain, but includes the potential upside of winning an NBA championship. The Bucks' future is much grimmer. Consider what happened the last time the Bucks traded their cornerstone player; in six seasons, Kareem Abdul-Jabbar led the Bucks to two NBA Finals and one NBA title while winning three regular season MVPs, and the Bucks won at least 60 games in three of those seasons--but the Bucks won 38 games or less in three of the first four seasons after trading Abdul-Jabbar to the L.A. Lakers with Walt Wesley for Junior Bridgeman, Brian Winters, Dave Meyers, and Elmore Smith. The Bucks eventually became a contender again, making the playoffs for 12 straight seasons from 1980-91, but they never advanced beyond the Eastern Conference Finals, losing three times in that round. After losing in the 1986 Eastern Conference Finals, the Bucks reached the Eastern Conference Finals once (2001) between 1987 and 2019 (Antetokounmpo's sixth season). 

Rebuilding may sound good on paper or in soundbites, but NBA championships are won by teams led by players like Kareem Abdul-Jabbar and Giannis Antetokounmpo, not by the very good players who their teams received after trading them. Abdul-Jabbar won three regular season MVPs, five NBA championships, and one NBA Finals MVP with the Lakers. He had the good fortune of being paired with Magic Johnson and James Worthy, but they also had the good fortune of being paired with him. 

The Heat may not win a title with Antetokounmpo, but they have a better chance of winning a title in the next five years than they have had since James left; the Bucks traded a generational player for some good players and several draft picks, and if the aftermath of the Abdul-Jabbar trade is an indicator it may be 50 years before they have another generational player who leads them to the NBA Finals. 

Labels: Bobby Portis, Giannis Antetokounmpo, Jaime Jaquez Jr., Kasparas Jakucionis, Kel'el Ware, Miami Heat, Milwaukee Bucks, Tyler Herro

posted by David Friedman @ 12:40 AM

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Hornets Douse Heat in Overtime Thriller, Trail Blazers Eclipse Suns With Big Fourth Quarter Comeback

The NBA Play-In Tournament has produced more than its share of boring blowouts, but Tuesday night featured two competitive and exciting games. The action opened with the Charlotte Hornets' 127-126 overtime win versus the Miami Heat--an instant classic featuring 16 lead changes, 17 ties, and many clutch plays by both teams. LaMelo Ball not only scored a game-high 30 points, but he delivered the game-winning shot on a powerful drive to the hoop with 4.7 seconds left in overtime. The Heat had no timeouts, so Davion Mitchell raced to the hoop to try to score, but Miles Bridges swatted away his layup attempt as time expired. 

Ball shot just 12-31 from the field--including 2-16 from three point range--but in addition to the game-winning shot he had a game-high 10 assists plus the game's second best plus/minus number (+15). Bridges had 28 points and nine rebounds while shooting 5-10 from three point range. Brandon Miller contributed 23 points, five rebounds, and five assists while also shooting 5-10 from three point range. Coby White scored 19 points, shot 5-8 from three point range, and notched the game's best plus/minus number (+21). The Hornets had 17 offensive rebounds, and they outrebounded the Heat 54-48 overall.

Mitchell paced the Heat with 28 points, Andrew Wiggins scored 27 points, and Tyler Herro added 23 points despite shooting just 7-18 from the field. Kal'el Ware had 12 points, a game-high 19 rebounds, and a game-high five blocked shots. Norman Powell--the Heat's only All-Star this season--scored 11 points in just 19 minutes and was the only Heat player who had a double digit plus/minus number (+11). 

The Hornets took a 26-18 lead at the 3:33 mark of the first quarter on the strength of offensive rebounding and three point shooting, but the Heat trimmed the deficit to 26-24 by the end of the first quarter, foreshadowing how this game would be a back and forth struggle. 

The Hornets led 30-26 at the 10:58 mark of the second quarter when Ball grabbed the ankle of an off balance Bam Adebayo, who went crashing to the floor and left the game with a lower back injury--but no foul was called on the play, and the referees did not review the sequence, much to the chagrin of Miami coach Erik Spoelstra, who said after the game that Ball should have been ejected. Lead referee Zach Zarba explained to Amazon Prime's Cassidy Hubbarth that a change of possession occurred before the referees had a chance to stop play, so by rule they were not able to review what happened; this seems to be a major loophole in the rules: why should a player get away with a flagrant foul because the referees were looking the wrong way for a split second? If a player is injured badly enough that he cannot return to the game, there should be some mechanism for the referees to review how that injury happened. Adebayo had six points, three rebounds, and a +1 plus/minus number in 11 minutes up to that point.

The Heat battled back to go up 39-37 midway through the second quarter, and they enjoyed a 54-52 halftime lead. Mitchell and Wiggins led the Heat with 10 first half points each, while Ball scored 17 first half points for the Hornets, who shot just 7-21 (.333) from beyond the arc.

The Hornets made a 10-0 run to take an 84-79 lead at the 1:28 mark of the third quarter. During the ensuing timeout, Hubbarth reported that Adebayo would not return to the game. The Hornets pushed the margin to eight (93-85) early in the fourth quarter before the Heat countered with a 12-0 run to take a 97-93 lead with 7:25 remaining in regulation. Herro's three pointer at the 2:16 mark put the Heat up 111-105, but Bridges' three pointer cut the lead in half and then Miller drained a three pointer after Jaime Jaquez Jr. split a pair of free throws. Herro made two free throws to put Miami up 114-111. The Hornets called timeout, and then White hit a tough three pointer from the corner to tie the score; an interesting aspect of that play is that Kon Knueppel--who led the NBA this season with 273 three point field goals made, setting the NBA rookie record and the Charlotte franchise record--was relegated to the bench and not even used as a decoy. Knueppel did not play at all in the overtime, and he finished with just six points on 2-12 field goal shooting, including 0-6 from beyond the arc. Herro's three pointer at the buzzer was off the mark, sending the game to overtime.

The Hornets led 123-118 at the 1:33 mark of overtime, but Herro went on a 6-0 run to give the Heat a 126-125 lead with 8.7 seconds remaining. Herro's burst included three clutch free throws after being fouled by Ball on a three point field goal attempt. Ball made up for his foul gaffe by scoring the game-winning layup.  

The Hornets can grab the Eastern Conference's eighth seed with a win on Friday, but the Heat are eliminated from playoff contention. 

In the second game of Amazon Prime's doubleheader, Deni Avdija poured in a game-high 41 points on 15-22 field goal shooting while also dishing for a game-high 12 assists and grabbing seven rebounds to power the Portland Trail Blazers to a 114-110 road win versus the Phoenix Suns. This clinched Portland's first playoff berth since 2021. The Suns can still make the playoffs with a victory on Friday night versus the winner of Wednesday night's L.A. Clippers-Golden State Warriors game. Avdija looked like an in-shape, healthy Luka Doncic as he repeatedly broke down the Suns' defense with dribble drives culminating in shots in the paint, drawn fouls, or passes deftly sprayed to open perimeter shooters. Two-time NBA champion Jrue Holiday added 21 points, while Jerami Grant exploded for 16 points off of the bench in 19 minutes.

Jalen Green paced the Suns with 35 points. Devin Booker scored an inefficient 22 points, shooting just 7-17 from the field and 8-13 from the free throw line. Dillon Brooks had 20 points on 6-10 field goal shooting before fouling out with 16.1 seconds left in the fourth quarter. 

The Suns jumped out to a 14-7 lead by the 8:40 mark of the first quarter, and it looked like the moment might be a little too big for the young Trail Blazers, but Avdija settled his team down with 12 points and five assists in the second quarter as the Trail Blazers forged a 55-41 lead at the 5:23 mark of the second quarter after Grant made a three pointer. The Suns did not let the game get out of reach, and they pulled to within 65-62 by halftime. Green scored 22 first half points, while Avdija had 16 points and seven assists.

The Trail Blazers pushed their lead to 11 points twice during the third quarter, but they clung to an 83-82 lead heading into the final stanza. Green's jumper at the 11:44 mark of the fourth quarter gave the Suns their first lead of the second half, 84-83. The Suns extended their margin to 11 points twice during the fourth quarter, but an 8-0 Portland run slashed the lead to 100-97 with 4:14 remaining in the fourth quarter. At that point, Donovan Clingan committed a flagrant foul against Brooks, who sank two free throws to extend the Suns' lead to 102-97. Green's three pointer with 3:31 to go put the Suns up 105-97, but a 7-0 Portland run in the next 1:02 made the score 105-104. Booker split a pair of free throws and Grant answered with a three pointer to put the Trail Blazers up 107-106. The lead changed hands four times in the final 1:34, with Avdija putting the Trail Blazers up for good with driving layup with 16.1 seconds remaining. Green missed a long three pointer on the Suns' final possession, and then Grant ended the scoring with a fast break dunk.

In my NBA Play-Tournament preview, I picked Charlotte to beat Miami and Phoenix to beat Portland, so I am 1-1 so far.

Labels: Charlotte Hornets, Deni Avdija, Jrue Holiday, LaMelo Ball, Miami Heat, Miles Bridges, NBA Play-In Tournament, Phoenix Suns, Portland Trail Blazers

posted by David Friedman @ 2:58 AM

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The 2026 NBA Play-In Tournament, Featuring the Worst of the Non-Tankers

The 2025-26 season will long be remembered for the NBA de facto becoming two leagues: a 20 team league in which teams competed to qualify for the playoffs or at least for the Play-In Tournament, and a 10 team league in which teams competed to lose as many games as possible. The standings reflect this sharp divide; instead of wins and losses being distributed relatively evenly, the 10th seeded team in the Eastern Conference finished 11 games ahead of the 11th seeded team, and the 10th seeded team in the Western Conference also finished 11 games ahead of the 11th seeded team. The 10th seeded team in each conference qualifies for the NBA Play-In Tournament, while the teams finishing below 10th head straight to the NBA Draft Lottery. Last season, the Eastern Conference's 10th seeded team finished seven games ahead of the 11th seeded team, and the Western Conference's 10th seeded team finished just three games ahead of the 11th seeded team. During the 2023-24 season, the margins were four games and five games respectively, and in 2022-23 the margins were five games and two games respectively. In 1995-96, when the Chicago Bulls won a then-record 72 regular season games and eight teams from each conference qualified for the playoffs without an NBA Play-In Tournament, the margins between eighth place and ninth place in each conference were one game and three games respectively. 

In short, to the extent that tanking existed historically it was much more limited in scope than it was this season: fewer teams tanked, and they did so for a smaller portion of the season. NBA fans can thank "stat gurus"--who act like they have figured out the mathematical solution to every problem--and NBA Commissioner Adam Silver for the "tank-tacular" NBA, a league that charges full ticket prices and hefty streaming fees for the "privilege" of watching a third of the teams race to the bottom. Have any of the "stat gurus" noticed that many of the same teams are tanking each year, which would suggest to a sensible person that tanking is not the optimal way to build a winning team?

Most of the 2026 Play-In Tournament teams are not as good or as intriguing as the NBA's media partners assert, but four of these teams--two from the Eastern Conference and two from the Western Conference--will survive to participate in the NBA playoffs, which begin on April 18. 

Last season, five of the eight Play-In Tournament teams had losing records. Not surprisingly, when movable forces face resistible objects the result is not scintillating basketball; the 2025 NBA Play-In Tournament began with the 41-41 Orlando Magic eviscerating the 40-42 Atlanta Hawks, 120-95. This season, rampant tanking in the bottom third of the standings enabled seven of the eight Play-In Tournament teams to avoid having losing records.

The 2026 NBA Play-In Tournament starts tomorrow night with the 44-38 Charlotte Hornets hosting the 43-39 Miami Heat. ESPN's Charles Barkley has been calling the Hornets "The Dream Team" for months, and he was only half-joking: after starting the season 6-16, the Hornets went 38-22 the rest of the way, including a nine game winning streak featuring wins over San Antonio and Houston. The Hornets ranked first in three point field goals made as Kon Knueppel set the single season rookie record and the Charlotte franchise record for three point field goals made, and his league-leading 273 were just one more than his teammate LaMelo Ball's 272. The Hornets ranked third in three point field goal percentage (.378) but they are not as adept at making other shots, ranking 25th in overall field goal percentage (.460) and 13th in scoring (116.0 ppg). They finished fifth in rebounding, seventh in points allowed, and 11th in defensive field goal percentage. Brandon Miller (20.2 ppg), Ball (20.1 ppg), and Knueppel (18.5 ppg) lead a balanced scoring attack. The Hornets have not made the playoffs since 2016, and their top nine players have combined to participate in zero career playoff games.

The Heat boast about their "culture" and their championship aspirations, but they have not advanced past the first round of the playoffs since 2023. They used to be known for being a slow tempo team that played tough defense, but this season they ranked second in scoring and 22nd in points allowed. The Heat scored at least 135 points in 15 games, and they won 14 of those contests. First-time All-Star Norm Powell led the team in scoring (21.7 ppg) but he played in just 58 games. Tyler Herro averaged 20.5 ppg in 33 games. Bam Adebayo averaged 20.1 ppg, the second highest mark in his career--boosted by his 83 point outburst versus the defenseless, tanking Washington "Wheeze-hards." The Heat have been the unofficial kings of the Play-In Tournament: in 2025, they became the first 10th seeded team to qualify for the playoffs, and in 2023 they emerged from the Play-Tournament to make an improbable run to the NBA Finals before losing to the Denver Nuggets. 

The Heat won the first two matchups with the Hornets before getting smoked 136-106 on March 17. Adebayo missed that game due to right calf tightness. I expect the Hornets' defense and three point shooting to cause problems for the Heat, so I am picking the Hornets to beat the Heat. The loser of that game will be eliminated from playoff contention, while the winner will face the loser of Wednesday night's Philadelphia-Orlando game to earn the Eastern Conference's eighth seed.

In Tuesday's nightcap, the 45-37 Phoenix Suns host the 42-20 Portland Trail Blazers. The Suns seemed to be rebuilding after trading Kevin Durant to Houston in a seven team deal last summer, but instead they won nine more games sans Durant this season than they won with him in 2024-25. The Suns' top players missed a lot of games in both seasons, so health does not explain the improvement. Not surprisingly, the Suns are worse offensively without Durant, ranking 26th in scoring and 28th in field goal percentage this season after ranking 18th and 11th respectively in those categories last season. The difference is on defense, where the Suns improved from 22nd in points allowed to sixth while also inching up from 21st to 15th in defensive field goal percentage. Devin Booker led the Suns in scoring (26.1 ppg) and assists (6.0 apg), while two of the players acquired in the Durant deal have been major contributors: Dillon Brooks averaged a career-high 20.2 ppg and Jalen Green chipped in 17.8 ppg.

The Portland Trail Blazers have not made the playoffs since 2021 and have not advanced past the first round since their fluky 2019 run to the Western Conference Finals, but Deni Avdija's emergence as a first-time All-Star helped this young team improve just enough to at least contend for postseason play. Avdija led the team in scoring (career-high 24.2 ppg) and assists (career-high 6.7 apg) while also averaging 6.9 rpg. Shaedon Sharpe contributed a career-high 20.8 ppg, while Jerami Grant bounced back from an awful 2024-25 season (14.4 ppg on .373 field goal shooting) to score 18.6 ppg on solid .453 field goal shooting. First year head coach Tiago Splitter did an admirable job replacing Chauncey Billups at the last minute after Billups was placed on leave by the NBA because of his alleged role in a two-pronged illegal gambling scandal. As is often the case with teams that finish around .500, the Trail Blazers have mediocre rankings in many statistical categories, but they finished sixth in rebounding and seventh in blocked shots, numbers that hint at their youth and athleticism.

The Suns won the first two head to head matchups in high scoring games at Portland, and then the Trail Blazers won 92-77 at Phoenix. Booker and Brooks did not play in that game, and Avdija played less than a minute, so that contest does not say much about these teams at full strength. I expect Avdija to have a great all-around game, but Booker and Brooks will each score 25-plus points in a Phoenix win. The winner of that game will earn the Western Conference's seventh seed, while the loser will face the winner of Wednesday night's L.A. Clippers-Golden State game to claim the Western Conference's eighth seed.

On Wednesday night, the 45-37 Philadelphia 76ers will host the 45-37 Orlando Magic. The tanking teams should stop hiring "stat gurus" and instead take a graduate course on "The Process": after the 76ers reached the second round of the playoffs in 2012, and then missed the playoffs by four games in 2013, the 76ers hired Sam Hinkie as their general manager and embarked on a four year tanking program. As a result, the 76ers chose Joel Embiid with the third overall pick in the 2014 NBA Draft. Embiid missed his first two seasons due to injury, but in the next nine seasons he failed to advance past the second round--and he is currently sidelined after appendicitis surgery. Since "stat gurus" claim to love numbers, let the record show that the 76ers lost on purpose for four years--and a decade later all of that intentional losing has yet to produce a better playoff team than their 2012 squad. I realize that some "stat gurus" are as slow as they are stubborn, but objectively the numbers prove that tanking does not work.

First-time All-Star Tyrese Maxey had a breakout season, leading the 76ers with a career-high 28.3 ppg. He does not shrink in the playoffs like Embiid does, but he also has not proven that he can carry a team very far. Rookie VJ Edgecombe averaged 16.0 ppg, and he is the only one of the 76ers' top five scorers who played in at least 75 games. Injuries and a 25 game suspension for using performance-enhancing drugs limited Paul George to just 37 games, during which he averaged 17.3 ppg. Insert joke about the drugs not actually enhancing George's play very much--and his playoff resume is nothing to write home about. 

The Magic were considered to be a team on the rise after going 47-35 in 2023-24, but something has just not clicked since then. Injuries have not helped, but even when this team is at or near full strength it does not strike fear into the hearts of legit contenders. All they had to do to host Philadelphia in the Play-In Tournament was beat a Boston team that rested its key players in the last regular season game, but instead the Magic fell flat on their faces. Paolo Banchero made the All-Star team in his second season (2024) and has not been back since. He led the Magic in scoring (22.2 ppg) and rebounding (8.4 ppg), but the initial thought/hope that he could develop into a franchise player now seems to be unrealistic. Offseason acquisition Desmond Bane did his part, averaging 20.1 ppg while being one of just 18 NBA players who participated in all 82 games. 

With the 76ers at home and the Magic floundering around, it is tempting to pick Philadelphia, but the 76ers are 24-14 with Embiid this season, and 21-23 without him; in other words, new year but same old story: with Embiid, the 76ers are a 50 win regular season team that is just good enough to lose early in the playoffs, and without Embiid the 76ers are not good at all. If the 76ers were completely healthy, I would not pick them to advance past the second round this season, and in their current state I expect even the enigmatic Orlando Magic to beat them. 

Wednesday's action will conclude with the 42-40 L.A. Clippers hosting the 37-45 Golden State Warriors. The Clippers started the season 6-16 before cutting ties with Chris Paul. They soon went on a six game winning streak, and their 11-4 January record lifted them above the tanking teams and into fringe playoff contention. The Clippers did some more addition by subtraction in early February by jettisoning 36 year old James Harden in exchange for 26 year old Darius Garland. This is just the second season since 2017 that Kawhi Leonard played in at least 65 games; he conveniently landed exactly on the number that keeps him eligible for postseason award consideration, and he will likely make one of the All-NBA Teams after averaging a career-high 27.9 ppg with shooting splits of .505/.387/.892. Garland has been a dependable second scoring option, averaging 19.9 ppg in 19 games with the Clippers.

After Jimmy Butler played just 38 games before suffering a season-ending knee injury, and injuries limited Stephen Curry to 43 games, future Hall of Famer Draymond Green picked up the slack--and led Golden State to the last Play-In Tournament slot after Dallas, New Orleans, Memphis, Utah, and Sacramento decided to abandon even the pretense of trying to win. We have seen this Draymond Green experience before: in 2019-20 with Curry and Klay Thompson sidelined by injuries, Green led the Warriors to a 15-50 record. Green's fans describe him as essential member of four Golden State championship teams, but a credible argument could be made that his flagrant fouls, suspensions, and negative impact on team chemistry cost the Warriors almost as many championships as he helped them win--and the word "helped" is used advisedly: as the third and sometimes fourth best player on championship teams, Green was not as dominant as Dennis Rodman--a lock down defender and seven-time rebounding champion--nor was he as clutch as Robert Horry. 

This season, the Warriors were 24-19 with Curry, and 13-26 without him, with Green along for the ride in either scenario. The Warriors ranked 14th in points allowed, 22nd in scoring, 23rd in defensive field goal percentage, 24th in field goal percentage, and 25th in rebounding; some of those numbers are skewed a bit by Curry's extended absences, but the reality is that the Warriors are what their record says they are: not very good. The Clippers are not the second coming of the 1996 Chicago Bulls, but with Leonard scoring an efficient 30 points and Garland adding 25 points the Clippers will put the Warriors out of their misery.

In Friday's Play-In Tournament games, I expect Charlotte to beat Philadelphia and L.A. to defeat Portland. As noted above, Charlotte is inexperienced but the Hornets are stout defensively, while the 76ers are the predictable product of years of tanking. The Clippers sans Harden and Paul will complete their rise from the basement to the penthouse (or at least the eighth seed in the Western Conference playoffs).

Thus, if my predictions are correct, the Orlando Magic and Phoenix Suns will claim the seventh seeds in their respective conferences, and the eighth seeded teams will be the Charlotte Hornets and the L.A. Clippers. 

Watching a third of the NBA tank into oblivion this season was not enjoyable, and even finding the games may be challenging for the casual fan, so it should be noted that all of the 2026 NBA Play-In Tournament games are being shown exclusively on Amazon Prime. 

Previous Play-In Tournament Articles:

2025

Heat Bludgeon Bulls and Mavericks Topple Kings to Stay Alive in the NBA Play-In Tournament (April 17, 2025)

Magic Rout Hawks and Warriors Edge Grizzlies to Clinch Playoff Berths (April 16, 2025) 

Thoughts and Predictions About the 2025 NBA Play-In Tournament (April 14, 2025) 

2024

76ers Cool off Heat to Clinch East's Seventh Seed, Heat Will Host Bulls to Determine East's Eighth Seed (April 18, 2024)

Lakers Clinch West's Seventh Seed, Pelicans Will Host Kings to Determine West's Eighth Seed (April 17, 2024)

The NBA Play-In Tournament Gives Mediocre Teams an Opportunity to Salvage Their Disappointing Seasons  (April 15, 2024)

2023

Zion Williamson's Refusal to Play Despite Being Healthy Embodies What is Wrong With Today's NBA (April 13, 2023)

L.A. Lakers Need Overtime to Dispatch Shorthanded Minnesota Timberwolves in Play-In Tournament (April 12, 2023)

The 2023 NBA Play-In Tournament: Grab Your Popcorn and Savor the Mediocrity! (April 10, 2023)

2022

Notes on the 2022 NBA Play-In Tournament (April 14, 2022)

Nets Clinch Seventh Seed After Outlasting Cavaliers, 115-108 (April 12, 2022)

The NBA is (Usually) Fantastic (Except When Teams Bench Their Starters for the Season's Last Game) (April 11, 2022)

2021

Nine Versus Ten Does Not Add Up to Fantastic Basketball (May 20, 2021)

Thoughts on the NBA's Play-In Tournament (May 17, 2021)

Labels: Charlotte Hornets, Golden State Warriors, L.A. Clippers, Miami Heat, Orlando Magic, Philadelphia 76ers, Phoenix Suns, Play-In Tournament, Portland Trail Blazers

posted by David Friedman @ 11:26 PM

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Bam Adebayo's Scoring Outburst Highlights Why Tanking is Terrible

On April 9, 2023, I declared, "The toxic combination of tanking and load management cheats the fans who buy tickets to see their favorite players, compromises the integrity of playoff seeding, devalues individual and team statistics, and creates a host of issues regarding legalized wagering" (emphasis added). 

There are many examples of inflated/devalued statistics, but the tragicomical farce perpetrated by the Miami Heat--and their partners in crime, the perpetually tanking Washington "Wheeze-hards"--tonight is Exhibit A: Bam Adebayo scored 83 points on 20-43 field goal shooting and 36-43 free throw shooting as Adebayo's Heat won, 150-129. Adebayo made just seven of the 22 three pointers that he jacked up, and he scored six points--all on free throws--in the final two minutes with the Heat leading by 25 or more points. Officially, Adebayo now owns the second highest single game scoring output in NBA history, surpassing Kobe Bryant (81 points) and trailing only Wilt Chamberain's legendary 100 point game. Unofficially, this travesty--this "traveshammockery" (travesty, sham, and mockery)--should have a giant asterisk next to it, and that asterisk should include a picture of Adam Silver's face wearing clown makeup.

The "Wheeze-hards" gave up 40 first quarter points on .542 field goal shooting, with Adebayo scoring 31 points on 10-16 field goal shooting; their only goal is to lose, and they achieved that goal in a spectacularly disgraceful manner. Perhaps the Wizards assumed that the Heat would call off the dogs once the outcome was no longer in doubt, but by that point Adebayo was so close to surpassing Bryant that the Heat began force-feeding him the ball. Even tanking teams apparently have some standards, so the "Wheeze-hards" began focusing all of their meager efforts on not letting Adebayo score, and then the Heat began fouling to get the ball back and missing non-Adebayo free throws on purpose to generate more shot attempts for Adebayo. 

The "Wheeze-hards" have been tanking for several years and have made the playoffs just once since 2018 (2021, when Russell Westbrook averaged a triple double for the fourth time in his extraordinary and often underrated career. Adam Silver should relegate the "Wheeze-hards" and other tanking teams to the G League and should forbid the tankers from receiving the national TV revenue that teams share. I know that he will not do that--for a variety of reasons--but drastic measures must be taken to prevent the NBA from degenerating into a complete farce.

How absurd is it that Adebayo scored 83 points in an NBA regular season game? Adebayo's previous career high was 41 points in a 128-124 Heat loss versus the Brooklyn Nets on January 23, 2021; that was one of just four times that he scored at least 35 points in a game in the first 624 regular season games of his NBA career. 

Luka Doncic is a great player, but after he poured in 73 points in a game on the same day that Devin Booker scored 62 points, I called out the NBA for destroying the sport and the record book: 

Regular season NBA games are starting to resemble the NBA All-Star Game in terms of lack of defense/lack of competitive effort, and last year's NBA All-Star Game may have been the worst basketball game ever. Prior to Monday, there had been one day in ABA/NBA history during which two players had 60 point games--and now that has happened twice in five days. Pointing out such facts is not "hating." The NBA powers that be have drastically altered the game, and not for the better: instead of featuring the best athletes in the world competing at the highest level, the NBA has degenerated into a glorified skills exhibition. I have attended dozens if not hundreds of NBA games in person as a credentialed media member or as a fan, and I have seen firsthand that even "non shooters" in the NBA can shoot an absurd percentage on uncontested warmup shots; this helped me to understand how great NBA defense is (or was). With all due respect to Doncic, in his 73 point game he shot .850 from the field on shots that were not much more difficult than warmup shots.

The modern NBA has lowered the bar competitively, which devalues each game and cheapens the record book.

Less than two months ago, I wrote about how much the NBA has changed for the worse in the 20 years since Kobe Bryant's 81 point game: 

The rules changes and style of play changes from the past 20 years suggest that the NBA decided that fans have such short attention spans and so little appreciation for the nuances of the game that the only way to keep them interested is to transmogrify the sport from a game of ball movement and player movement featuring diverse offensive strategies into a one dimensional game during which teams jack up as many three pointers as possible; three point field goal percentages have not improved in the past 20 years, but the volume of three point shooting has more than doubled. "Stat gurus" may believe that high volume three point shooting is inherently efficient, but shooting twice as many treys at less than a .360 clip while eschewing midrange shots and shots in the paint does not add up to efficient basketball, nor does it create aesthetically pleasing basketball. 

At its best, basketball is an all-around game featuring skillful offense balanced by shrewd, physical defense. The step back move as utilized by Adrian Dantley, Larry Bird, and Dell Curry was a thing a of beauty. I used to practice it in my driveway while being careful to not take an extra step. In contrast to that technical artistry, what is called a step back move today is a travel and/or an offensive foul if basketball's rules were enforced as written. Commentators and fans scoff that old school players "had no bag" (did not have a bag of fancy ball handling moves), but the reality is that what is called a "bag" today includes traveling, carrying, palming, and flopping and flailing to bait referees into calling fouls against defensive players. No player epitomizes the NBA's emphasis on elevating offense over defense more than James Harden, who literally "traveled" through the NBA's record book thanks to the generous whistle that he received during his prime years. 

Bryant scored 81 points in a game and averaged 35.4 ppg at a time when most NBA teams struggled to score 100 points per game; it is easy to picture prime Bryant averaging at least 40 ppg in today's NBA, and the same should be said of Michael Jordan. Julius Erving's hands are so big that when he played he could catch a basketball with one hand and go up for a shot without touching the ball with his other hand; it is tantalizing to dream about the wonders that Erving would perform in today's game when defensive physicality on the perimeter has been eliminated while offensive players are permitted to do just about anything with the ball short of running from one end of the court to the other with no dribbles. Erving shot .343 from three point range in his final three ABA seasons, so it is easy to picture Erving becoming a successful, high volume three point shooter if that had been a point of emphasis during his career--and that would have made him impossible to guard in today's NBA, leaving defenders with the unenviable choice of watching him bury three pointers or watching him fly to the hoop to dunk without facing rim protectors.

I often think about Erving, and I lament how much the game has deteriorated since the era when he ruled the court (and the airspace above the court). Erving shares the ABA playoff single game scoring record (53 points) with Roger Brown, and Erving scored a career-high 63 points in a four overtime loss in 1975, but his NBA single game career high was a relatively modest 45 points. He could have scored a lot more points, but Erving did not chase personal glory or individual statistical achievements. I asked Erving about that, and he replied, "Putting your second team in when you're up a lot of points is really what you should do. I mean, those guys want to play, too. To just run it up to 125 so the crowd can get hamburgers or whatever, that’s not good," and then he added, "Yeah, putting a guy back in the game so he can get an assist for a triple double or whatever, that’s crass. It's just crass."

"Crass" is the perfect description for Bam Adebayo jacking up 22 three pointers and scoring 83 points in a 21 point blowout win versus the tanking "Wheeze-hards."

Labels: Bam Adebayo, Julius Erving, Kobe Bryant, Miami Heat, Washington Wizards

posted by David Friedman @ 11:58 PM

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New York and Orlando Advance to the NBA Cup Semifinals

The Orlando Magic defeated the Miami Heat 117-108 in the first of the 2025 NBA Cup quarterfinals games. Last year, the Magic lost to the Milwaukee Bucks in the NBA Cup quarterfinals, but this year their offseason addition of Desmond Bane paid big dividends as he erupted for a game-high 37 points on 14-24 field goal shooting, including 6-9 from three point range for a team that ranked 30th (last) in the league in three point field goal percentage last season. Jalen Suggs contributed 20 points, four assists, and two steals, Paolo Banchero added 18 points, seven rebounds, and four assists, and Wendell Carter Jr. had 14 points plus a game-high 10 rebounds. The Magic won the rebounding battle 47-39 and they outscored the Heat in the paint 60-52. Norman Powell led a balanced Heat offense with 21 points on 8-19 field goal shooting, followed closely by Tyler Herro (20 points), Bam Adebeyo (19 points, team-high eight rebounds), and Andrew Wiggins (19 points).

In my December 3 NBA Cup article, I picked Orlando to beat Miami, but that was before the Magic's Franz Wagner suffered a left high ankle sprain that is expected to sideline him for several weeks. Wagner is averaging 22.7 ppg, 6.1 rpg, and 3.7 apg in 24 games this season, and initially the Magic struggled without him as the Heat jumped to a 15-0 lead by the 9:16 mark of the first quarter. The Magic outscored the Heat 17-15 the rest of the way in the first quarter, and then won the second quarter 39-27 to pull to within 57-56 by halftime. The Magic took the lead early in the third quarter before Bane fouled Adebayo on a three point attempt at the 8:53 mark. Adebayo made the first two free throws before missing the third, but Adebayo scooped up the rebound and Powell drained a three pointer a few seconds later to complete the rare five point possession, putting the Heat up, 69-66. Suggs answered with a three pointer to tie the score, and the Magic never trailed again. The Magic waste too many possessions and make too many careless plays to be a championship team, but Bane's 25 second half points proved to be too much for the Heat to overcome. 

Even with this loss, the Heat are still one of the NBA's pleasant surprises. They are playing at the fastest pace in franchise history, ranking third in the league in scoring (122.3 ppg) prior to this game. Jimmy Butler forced his way out of Miami last season and he landed with the Golden State Warriors, but so far this season the Heat have a better record than the Warriors. Butler's video message to Warriors' fans after he joined the team--"Championship coming soon"--is not aging well. Miami coach Erik Spoelstra proved that he can successfully handle the egos on a super team while leading the Heat to NBA titles in 2012 and 2013 with LeBron James, Dwyane Wade, and Chris Bosh forming a "Big Three," and he has also shown that he can maximize the output of a team that does not have even one superstar. 

In the second game of Amazon Prime's NBA Cup quarterfinals doubleheader, the New York Knicks beat the Toronto Raptors 117-101. Jalen Brunson poured in a game-high 35 points on 13-19 field goal shooting, including 6-9 from beyond the arc. He had 20 first quarter points on 7-9 field goal shooting to help the Knicks overcome an otherwise slow start. An alleged problem for the Knicks last season was that coach Tom Thiboedeau relied too heavily on his starters, but the formula that carried them to the Eastern Conference Finals for the first time since 2000 also worked in this game for coach Mike Brown: the Knicks' starters scored 98 of the team's 117 points while four of New York's starters played at least 36 minutes each. Josh Hart contributed 21 points, six rebounds, and four assists. Mikal Bridges had 15 points, five rebounds, and four assists, Karl-Anthony Towns added 14 points, a game-high 16 rebounds, and two blocked shots, and OG Anunoby chipped in 13 points plus six rebounds. The Knicks outrebounded the Raptors 48-37, and they shot .525 (42-80) from the field while holding the Raptors to .433 (39-90) field goal shooting. Brandon Ingram led the Raptors with 31 points on 11-18 field goal shooting while also grabbing six rebounds and dishing six assists. Jamal Shead made his first start of the season in place of the injured Immanuel Quickley, and he scored 18 points while passing for a game-high eight assists. Scottie Barnes scored just 13 points on 6-18 field goal shooting, tying his second lowest point total of the season.

This game played out the way that I expected; in my aforementioned December 3 NBA cup article, I picked New York to beat Toronto by double digits, noting that Toronto "feasted on a weak schedule loaded with sub-.500 teams, and they lost to the Knicks 116-94 on November 30." The Raptors gave their fans some early (and false) hope by taking a 17-11 first quarter lead and they were still up 39-35 at the end of the first quarter--but the Knicks blitzed the Raptors 34-13 in the second quarter, shooting .583 (14-24) from the field while holding the Raptors to .238 (5-21) field goal shooting. The Raptors outscored the Knicks 49-48 in the second half, but that was not nearly enough to overcome their second quarter collapse.

The Knicks and Magic will play on Saturday December 13 in Las Vegas to earn the right to represent the Eastern Conference in the NBA Cup Championship Game. 

Labels: Desmond Bane, Jalen Brunson, Miami Heat, NBA Cup, New York Knicks, Orlando Magic, Toronto Raptors

posted by David Friedman @ 12:51 AM

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Thunder Dominate NBA Cup Play--and Everything Else

The Oklahoma City Thunder lost to the Milwaukee Bucks in the 2024 NBA Cup Championship Game, but the Thunder have rolled since then, setting the NBA's single season point differential record (12.9 ppg) while going 68-14 before defeating the Indiana Pacers in the 2025 NBA Finals. The Thunder currently have a league-leading 21-1 record with an incredible 15.3 ppg point differential. Jalen Williams, the Thunder's second best player behind Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, has appeared in just three of the Thunder's 22 games, and other key Thunder players--including Lu Dort, Alex Caruso, and Aaron Wiggins--have missed significant time as well.

The Thunder seem to be well on their way to not only winning 70-plus regular season games but also becoming the first repeat champion since the 2018 Golden State Warriors--but before the NBA playoffs, the basketball gods (also known as NBA Commissioner Adam Silver) have placed the NBA Cup. The Thunder are dominating the NBA Cup even more decisively than they are dominating the regular season overall; they went 4-0 in NBA Cup group play with an 18.8 ppg point differential, finishing first in West Group A to set up a quarterfinal game versus the Phoenix Suns on December 10. The winner of that game will face the winner of the December 10 game featuring the L.A. Lakers and the San Antonio Spurs. The Lakers have the second best overall record in the Western Conference (15-5), followed by the Houston Rockets (13-5), San Antonio Spurs (14-6), and Denver Nuggets (14-6). The Suns are seventh with a 13-9 record. 

The Thunder beat the Suns 123-119 on November 28 as Williams made his season debut with 11 points on 3-12 field goal shooting. The Suns have played surprisingly well this season, but Williams has looked better in each game that he has played so far and the Thunder's victory margin has increased in each of those games, so the Thunder should beat the Suns to advance to the semifinals. 

Only four of the Lakers' 15 wins are against teams that currently have winning records, so it will be interesting to see how the Lakers fare against tougher competition. The Lakers beat the Spurs 118-116 on November 5, but the Lakers have given up at least 118 points in four of their past five games and I expect the Spurs to win a close, high scoring game to earn a matchup with the Thunder.

The Thunder have yet to play the Spurs this season, but if they play in the semifinals I predict that the Thunder will win by at least 10 points.

In the Eastern Conference, the Orlando Magic and Toronto Raptors each went 4-0 in NBA Cup group play but the Magic earned the top seed because they had a better NBA Cup point differential (+64 compared to +55)--and they achieved that primarily by drilling the Philadelphia 76ers 144-103 on November 25. The Detroit Pistons have the best record (17-4) in the Eastern Conference and the second best record in the league behind the Thunder, but they went 2-2 in NBA Cup group play and failed to advance to the quarterfinals. The Cleveland Cavaliers had the Eastern Conference's best record last season (64-18) but they are just 13-9 this season, including 2-2 in NBA Cup group play.

The Magic are currently fifth overall in the Eastern Conference with a 13-8 record, and they will face the Miami Heat (14-7 overall, 3-1 in NBA Cup group play) in the NBA Cup quarterfinals on December 9. Orlando beat Miami 125-121 on October 22 in the season opener for both teams. The Magic lost their next four games, but they have won their last three games and six of their last seven; the Heat have also played very well recently, winning seven of their last eight games. I expect Orlando to beat Miami in a close game to advance to the NBA Cup semifinals. The other Eastern Conference quarterfinals matchup features Toronto versus the New York Knicks (13-7 overall, 3-1 in NBA Cup group play). The 15-7 Raptors are one of the league's early season surprises, but they have feasted on a weak schedule loaded with sub-.500 teams, and they lost to the Knicks 116-94 on November 30. I predict that the Knicks will beat the Raptors by double digits.

The Magic have already beaten the Knicks twice this season (124-107 on November 12, and 133-121 on November 22), and if they face each other in the semifinals I expect the Magic to win again.

The Thunder have not played the Magic this season, but if they meet in the NBA Cup Championship Game then I expect the Thunder to win.

The NBA Cup seems to be here to stay, so anyone covering the NBA is obligated to discuss it, but I still consider it to be a flawed concept, and in 2023 I pointed out the NBA Cup's two major drawbacks:

There are at least two drawbacks with the current NBA Cup format: (1) the use of point differential as the first tiebreaker in Group Play resulted in farcical situations during which teams ran up the score, and (2) there will be quirky scheduling this week for the teams that did not qualify for knockout round play. Regarding the first drawback, I am all for players and teams playing hard from opening tip to final buzzer, but intentionally running up the score in the waning moments of a blowout looks silly and renders those individual and team statistics meaningless: how many more points would the great teams and players of the past have scored if teams ran up the score instead of putting in the reserves? Regarding the second drawback, if a fan wants to see a particular visiting player or team how is he supposed to plan in advance for a week in which the schedule is dotted with "TBD"?  

The NBA has done nothing to fix either drawback, so we continue to see inflated statistics from blowout games along with a schedule that is frustrating and confounding for fans who are trying to make plans to see specific players or teams. 

The long term historical significance of the NBA Cup is unclear, but thus far NBA Cup success has not yet consistently translated to NBA playoff success. The L.A. Lakers defeated the Indiana Pacers in the 2023 NBA Cup Championship Game, but the Lakers finished the season as the eighth seeded team in the Western Conference before losing 4-1 to the Denver Nuggets in the first round. The Pacers had the same record as the Lakers (47-35) but finished sixth in the weaker Eastern Conference and then advanced to the Eastern Conference Finals before being swept by the Boston Celtics, who went on to capture the NBA title. The Milwaukee Bucks finished fifth in the Eastern Conference and lost in the first round of the 2025 playoffs after winning the 2024 NBA Cup. So far, the 2024-25 Thunder are the only NBA Cup Championship Game participant that has reached the NBA Finals.

Labels: L.A. Lakers, Miami Heat, New York Knicks, Oklahoma City Thunder, Orlando Magic, Phoenix Suns, San Antonio Spurs, Toronto Raptors

posted by David Friedman @ 5:03 PM

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2025-26 Eastern Conference Preview

Injuries and salary cap considerations will turn the Eastern Conference standings upside down. The Indiana Pacers made it to the Eastern Conference Finals in 2024 and 2025, and they pushed the dominant Oklahoma City Thunder to game seven of the 2025 NBA Finals before Tyrese Haliburton ruptured his right Achilles tendon. The Thunder outlasted the Pacers in game seven, and the Pacers will have to survive the 2025-26 season without Haliburton. The Pacers also lost starting center Myles Turner, who signed with the Milwaukee Bucks.

The Boston Celtics won the 2024 NBA championship, advanced to the 2022 NBA Finals before losing to the Golden State Warriors, and reached the Eastern Conference Finals six times in an eight year span (2017-18, 2020, 2022-24), but they are now facing a "gap year" after losing Jayson Tatum to a right Achilles tendon rupture in the second round of the 2025 NBA playoffs. With Tatum out of action, the Celtics decided to cut costs, trading Jrue Holiday to Portland for Anfernee Simons, and shipping Kristaps Porzingis to Atlanta in a three team deal that brought Georges Niang and a 2025 second round pick to Boston. The Celtics also did not re-sign backup center Luke Cornet, and did not retain the services of free agent Al Horford, who was their starting center for the better part of the past four seasons before signing with Golden State just prior to the start of the 2025-26 season.

With Indiana and Boston out of the championship contention picture, the path is wide open for the New York Knicks and Cleveland Cavaliers to battle for Eastern Conference supremacy, while the young Detroit Pistons and Orlando Magic look to build on the potential that they demonstrated last season, and the retooled Milwaukee Bucks seek to vault back to contender status after falling short since winning the 2021 NBA title. 

Despite reaching the Eastern Conference Finals for the first time since 2000, the New York Knicks fired Coach Tom Thibodeau and replaced him with two-time NBA Coach of the Year (2009 with Cleveland, 2023 with Sacramento) Mike Brown. Brown's .599 regular season career winning percentage ranks 10th all-time among coaches with at least 400 regular season wins, and his .556 playoff career winning percentage ranks 15th all-time among coaches with at least 40 playoff wins. Thibodeau's career winning percentages are .579 and .466 respectively. Neither Brown nor Thibodeau has won a championship as a head coach, and both have won at least one championship as an assistant coach (four for Brown, one for Thibodeau). Last season, the Knicks ranked ninth in points allowed but just 25th in defensive field goal percentage; in 2023-24, the Knicks ranked second in points allowed and 15th in defensive field goal percentage. A major challenge for Brown will be to build a strong defense despite having two poor defenders--Jalen Brunson and Karl-Anthony Towns--playing major minutes as the focal points of an offense that ranked fifth in field goal percentage and ninth in scoring last season.

Cleveland finished with the best record in the Eastern Conference (64-18, the second best mark in franchise history) before losing in the second round for the second year in a row. The Cavaliers have established that they can win a lot of regular season games, but they have not proven that they can sustain a lengthy playoff run. 

Listed below are the eight teams that I expect to qualify for the Eastern Conference playoffs, ranked based on their likelihood of advancing to the NBA Finals:

1) New York Knicks: The Knicks fired Coach Tom Thibodeau even though he led the team to the Eastern Conference Finals for the first time since 2000 while taking the Knicks to three straight playoff appearances for the first time since 2011-13. On the surface, it looks odd to get rid of a coach who has been so successful, but there are historical precedents for teams doing well after replacing winning coaches: Paul Westhead led the L.A. Lakers to the 1980 NBA title, but the Lakers replaced him with Pat Riley in 1981, and Riley coached the Lakers to four NBA titles (1982, 1985, 1987-88); Doug Collins led the Chicago Bulls to three straight playoff berths--culminating in reaching the Eastern Conference Finals in 1989--but the Bulls replaced him with Phil Jackson prior to the 1989-90 season, and Jackson coached the Bulls to six NBA titles (1991-93, 1996-98). 

There are some obvious differences between the 1980s Lakers/1990s Bulls and the current New York Knicks, with the foremost difference being that the Lakers had two Pantheon members (Kareem Abdul-Jabbar and Magic Johnson) and the Bulls had one Pantheon member (Michael Jordan) plus a player who should be ranked no lower than 25th all-time (Scottie Pippen), while the Knicks do not have any players who are even close to Pantheon level. 

The Knicks' best player, Jalen Brunson, is a 6-2 point guard with a shoot-first mentality; although he averaged a career-high 7.3 apg (eighth in the league) last season, his primary skill is scoring, and he has averaged at least 24.0 ppg in each of the last three seasons, peaking at 28.7 ppg in 2023-24 and scoring 26.0 ppg (eighth in the league) last season. The Knicks' second best player, Karl-Anthony Towns, has averaged at least 20 ppg in each of the last nine seasons, including 24.4 ppg (12th in the league) last season. Towns ranked second in the NBA with a career-high 12.8 rpg last season, but his poor defense and propensity to commit silly fouls are significant liabilities, particularly in the playoffs.

The Indiana Pacers eliminated the Knicks from the playoffs in each of the last two seasons, but the depleted Pacers do not figure to be a playoff threat--or even a playoff team--this season. The Boston Celtics have been an Eastern Conference Finals staple since 2017, but they will take a step (or several steps) back this season. I don't favor the Cleveland Cavaliers in a best of seven playoff series versus an elite team. Therefore, by process of elimination, the Knicks look like the team to beat in the Eastern Conference. 

It was not fair to fire Thibodeau, who did a great job with the Knicks, but Brown is also an excellent coach, and the Knicks seem to be in perfect position to benefit from the general weakening of the Eastern Conference.

2) Cleveland Cavaliers: In his first season as Cleveland's coach, Kenny Atkinson won the Coach of the Year award after leading the Cavaliers to a 64-18 record--but some of the shine from that success was dulled by losing in the second round for the second consecutive season. The Cavaliers have the necessary pieces to make a championship run, including an All-NBA First Team guard (Donovan Mitchell), the 2025 Defensive Player of the Year (Evan Mobley), an All-Star point guard (Darius Garland), and a center who scores efficiently in the paint while also rebounding well (Jarrett Allen). 

However, the playoff whole has not yet equaled the sum of the parts. The Knicks bullied the Cavaliers in the 2023 playoffs, the Celtics cruised past the Cavaliers 4-1 in the 2024 playoffs, and the Pacers shredded the Cavaliers' vaunted defense en route to a 4-1 win in the 2025 playoffs. The Cavaliers' playoff failures have been caused by lack of physicality and lack of game plan discipline, particularly on defense. Injuries have played a role, too, particularly last year, but most championship teams overcome some injury-related adversity.

The Cavaliers lost bench sparkplug Ty Jerome to the Memphis Grizzlies, and their only other significant roster move was trading Isaac Okoro to the Chicago Bulls for the oft-injured but very talented Lonzo Ball. Ball has never played more than 63 games in a season, and he has played in just 33 games since the 2021-22 season, but if he can stay healthy he can provide playmaking and tenacious defense.

The Eastern Conference should be wide open, but--as noted above--I don't trust the Cavaliers versus the Knicks in a best of seven series.

3) Orlando Magic: Injuries sidetracked the Magic's ascent last season, but with their key players healthy and some new players--most notably Desmond Bane and Tyus Jones--in the fold, the Magic expect to be one of the Eastern Conference's top teams. 

The Magic have a star or potential star in the paint, on the wing, and at guard. Power forward Paolo Banchero set career highs in scoring (25.9 ppg) and rebounding (7.5 rpg) but injuries limited him to 46 games. He is on a trajectory to be an All-NBA player, and he has already shown--albeit in a small sample size of just 12 playoff games--the ability to elevate his game in the postseason, with career playoff averages of 28.0 ppg and 8.5 rpg. Small forward Franz Wagner also set career highs in scoring (24.2 ppg) and rebounding (5.7 rpg), but he played in just 60 games after playing at least 72 games in each of his first three seasons. Guard Jalen Suggs ranked third on the team in scoring (16.2 ppg) before a knee injury ended his season after 35 games.  

The slow-paced Magic ranked 28th in points scored, 27th in field goal percentage, first in points allowed, and 17th in defensive field goal percentage. Improved health should help at both ends of the court, but three point shooting remains a major concern until proven otherwise; the Magic ranked 30th (last) in the NBA in both three point field goals made and three point field goal percentage. Bane should boost the Magic's rankings in both categories, as his career three point field goal percentage (.410) ranks 24th in ABA/NBA history, barely behind renowned "Splash Brother" Klay Thompson, and ahead of many noted long-range marksmen, including Dale Ellis, Mark Price, Ray Allen, and Glen Rice.

4) Milwaukee Bucks: Giannis Antetokounmpo is one of the NBA's elite players. Last season, the two-time regular season MVP (2019, 2020) and 2021 NBA Finals MVP finished third in regular season MVP voting after ranking second in the league in scoring (30.4 ppg), sixth in rebounding (11.9 rpg), and 13th in assists (6.5 apg, just a fraction short of the career high he set in 2023-24). He made the All-NBA First Team for the seventh straight year, and he finished in the top nine (eighth) in Defensive Player of the Year voting for the seventh straight year. The two-time Defensive Player of the Year has not made the All-Defensive Team since 2022, but he is still impactful at that end of the court. His only skill set weaknesses are free throw shooting (.617 last season, .693 for his career) and three point shooting (.222 last season, .284 for his career).

The Bucks added Myles Turner--fresh off of Indiana's run to the NBA Finals and back to back appearances in the Eastern Conference Finals--plus Cole Anthony and Gary Harris. To sign Turner, the Bucks stretched and waived Damian Lillard, who likely will not play this season after suffering a left Achilles tear. The Bucks also parted ways with Brook Lopez and Pat Connaughton. Lopez was a key member of Milwaukee's 2021 championship team, but he is 37 years old, so the 29 year old Turner is an upgrade in terms of both productivity and age. Anthony set career highs in scoring (16.3 ppg) and assists (5.7 apg) with Orlando in 2021-22, so he is capable of being the starting point guard; he averaged 9.4 ppg and 2.9 apg last season with Orlando, starting 22 of 67 games. Overall, the Bucks gained a lot more than they lost with these roster moves.

In his first full season as Milwaukee's coach, Doc Rivers posted a 48-34 record, the 14th time he led a team to at least 48 wins. His coaching resume includes one NBA title (Boston, 2008) and two Eastern Conference championships (Boston, 2008 and 2010), but also three blown 3-1 playoff series leads (Orlando Magic versus Detroit Pistons in 2003, L.A. Clippers versus Houston Rockets in 2015, and L.A. Clippers versus Denver Nuggets in 2020). To be fair, Rivers' teams were underdogs in two of those series (2003, 2015); also, Rivers coached Chris Paul in one of those series (2015), and Paul is one of the NBA's all-time playoff chokers, having "led" his teams to defeat a record five times after taking 2-0 series leads while also posting a 3-5 record in game sevens. More often than not, Rivers has maximized the potential of the teams that he coached.

Kyle Kuzma, who the Bucks acquired in a four team midseason trade that involved sending Khris Middleton to the Washington Wizards, averaged 14.5 ppg in 29 games with Milwaukee, ranking third on the team behind Antetlkounmpo and Lillard. Kuzma was a member of the L.A. Lakers' 2020 championship team, and the Bucks need for him to be a consistent scoring threat while also providing solid rebounding. 

Bobby Portis missed 25 games last season due to an NBA suspension for using a banned substance. He is a physically imposing player who provides defense, rebounding, three point shooting, and timely scoring. Portis finished third in Sixth Man of the Year voting in 2023 and 2024. 

Getting rid of Lillard--who would not have been able to play this season anyway--is addition by subtraction, particularly defensively. Turner provides athleticism and defense. I think that the Bucks will be better than most analysts are predicting.

5) Detroit Pistons: The Pistons hired J.B. Bickerstaff after their division rival Cavaliers fired him, and Bickerstaff finished second in Coach of the Year balloting as the Pistons improved from 14-68 to 44-38. Most of the team's sudden growth happened on defense, as the Pistons vaulted from 24th in defensive field goal percentage and 26th in points allowed to ninth and 14th respectively.

Cade Cunningham is an emerging star after averaging a career-high 26.1 ppg (seventh in the league) last season while also setting career highs in assists (9.1 apg, fourth in the league), field goal percentage (.469), and three point field goal percentage (.356). He earned his first All-Star selection and his first All-NBA Team selection (Third Team) while finishing seventh in MVP voting. Cunningham averaged 25.0 ppg, 8.7 apg, and 8.3 rpg in the Pistons' 4-2 first round loss to the New York Knicks.

Despite their successful season, the Pistons made several changes to their rotation, acquiring Caris LeVert, Duncan Robinson, and Javonte Green while losing Tim Hardaway Jr., Dennis Schroder, and Malik Beasley. As a result of those moves, the Pistons have less talent and depth.

Beasley played in all 82 games, finished third on the team in scoring (16.3 ppg), led the team in three point field goal percentage (.416), led the team in three point field goals made (319, second in the league), and finished second in Sixth Man of the Year voting. Schroder ranked second on the team in assists (5.3 apg), but he shot just .378 from the field. Hardaway averaged 11.0 ppg and ranked second on the team in three point field goals made (168). 

LeVert averaged a career-high 20.2 ppg in 2020-21, but he has averaged 14.0 ppg or less in each of the past three seasons. Robinson is a career .397 three point shooter, but he provides little else beyond perimeter shooting and he is a defensive liability. Green has now been with five teams in seven seasons, and his career scoring average is 5.3 ppg.

Despite the personnel losses, there are two reasons that the Pistons should be better this season than they were last season: (1) their young players will continue to improve, and (2) the Eastern Conference is much weaker than it was last season.

6) Atlanta Hawks: I do not rank the Hawks as highly as some commentators, because I am skeptical that any team that relies heavily on Trae Young can consistently win a lot of regular season games or go far in the playoffs; the Hawks have reached the playoffs three times in Young's seven season career, and they have advanced past the first round once. The Hawks will be depending heavily on offseason acquisitions Kristaps Porzingis and Nickeil Alexander-Walker to fortify a leaky defense that ranked 27th in points allowed and 28th in defensive field goal percentage--but Porzingis has played in at least 65 games in a season just once since 2017, and even though Alexander-Walker is a good defensive player he is not good enough to transform a team's entire defensive identity.

That being said, the Hawks have not only upgraded their overall talent but they have improved their defense, so it is conceivable that in a weakened Eastern Conference this team could finish in the top four--but even if that happens, I would be surprised if the Hawks advance past the second round.

7) Philadelphia 76ers: The 76ers are a difficult team to rank; if their "Big Three" players each play at least 70 games then the 76ers should finish in the top four in the Eastern Conference's regular season standings--but Joel Embiid's career-high is 68 games (he played in 19 games last season and 39 games two seasons ago), Paul George has played in at least 70 games just once in the past six seasons, and Tyrese Maxey played in just 52 games last season and has played in at least 70 games just twice in his five season career. The 76ers have never advanced past the second round since they began "tanking to the top," and it is unlikely that they will advance past the second round this season, regardless of how they perform during the regular season--but in a decimated Eastern Conference they will probably scrape together enough regular season wins to reach the Play-In Tournament and then slip into the playoffs.

8) Miami Heat: The Heat have reached the playoffs for six straight seasons, and during that time they advanced to the NBA Finals twice (2020, 2023). A good case could be made that Erik Spoelstra is the NBA's best coach, and he is a major reason that the Heat consistently play well regardless of injuries, roster turnover, and other challenges.

The Heat suffered a 10 game losing streak soon after trading the disgruntled Jimmy Butler to the Golden State Warriors last season, but then they rallied to win six games in a row en route to winning eight of their last 12 games to qualify for the Play-In Tournament. They then won two Play-In Tournament games to earn a first round matchup with the number one seeded Cleveland Cavaliers, who promptly obliterated the overmatched Heat, 4-0. That series demonstrated that there are limits to how far a team can advance just with great coaching. 

The Heat have a solid core group of players who have made the All-Star team at least once--Tyler Herro, Bam Adebayo, and Andrew Wiggins--but they lack a bona fide MVP-level superstar, and the reality in the NBA is that few teams win a championship without that kind of player. Herro had offseason foot surgery, and is expected to miss the first few weeks of the season, which means that the Heat may start slowly and have to rally to qualify for the Play-In Tournament, but they have enough talent and toughness to do that.

The Heat will play tenacious defense and they will try to cobble together a decent offense, but they are unlikely to advance past the first round. 

The teams that finish seventh through 10th in the regular season standings will participate in the Play-In Tournament. The above eight teams are the teams that I predict will qualify for the playoffs, regardless of what the final regular season standings are. 

During the Boston Celtics' 2024 championship run, Jaylen Brown won the Larry Bird Eastern Conference Finals MVP and the Bill Russell NBA Finals MVP. It will be interesting to watch Brown try to carry the Celtics sans Jayson Tatum, Jrue Holiday, Kristaps Porzingis, and Al Horford; my prediction is that Boston's defense is going to take a major step backwards after ranking second in points allowed and second in defensive field goal percentage, and I expect that Boston's three point-centric offense is going to struggle without Tatum drawing extra attention from opposing defenses. Anfernee Simons may set career-highs in scoring and three point field goals made, but he will give up at least as much on defense as he provides on offense.

Josh Giddey averaged 21.2 ppg, 10.7 rpg, and 9.3 apg in 19 games after the All-Star break, but for the Chicago Bulls to advance past the Play-In Tournament and earn a playoff berth--which the Bulls have done just once since 2018--they will not only need sustained high level performance from Giddey but a much stronger collective performance defensively.

Losing Tyrese Haliburton to injury and Myles Turner to free agency are crippling blows for the Indiana Pacers; if they can fight their way to the 10th seed and get Haliburton back in time for the Play-In Tournament then maybe they can grab the eighth seed, but the most likely scenario is that this team will win less than 35 games. 

A healthy season from Brandon Ingram--which is far from certain, considering that he has not played more than 65 games in a season since his rookie campaign (2016-17)--could lift the Raptors into the Play-In Tournament, but the most likely outcome is another trip to the Draft Lottery.

The Brooklyn Nets added Michael Porter Jr., who was an injury prone scorer for the Denver Nuggets and who played an important role for Denver's 2023 championship team. The Nets appear to be trying to tank without overtly tanking. Porter Jr. will likely average over 20 ppg and provide some entertainment/excitement, but a team with him as the number one option is unlikely to make the playoffs, even in the relatively weak Eastern Conference.

Brandon Miller is a promising young player who has displayed All-Star potential, and the Charlotte Hornets improved defensively last season, but the roster still lacks enough overall talent and depth to contend for a playoff berth. 

I will say the same thing about the Washington Wizards that I said in my 2024-25 Eastern Conference Preview: the Wizards "have not been relevant since Russell Westbrook carried the team that should be known as the "Wheeze-hards" to the 2021 playoffs."

**********
Note:

I correctly picked seven of the eight 2025 Eastern Conference playoff teams. Here are my statistics for previous seasons:

2024: 7/8
2023: 7/8
2022: 6/8
2021: 6/8
2020: 7/8
2019: 6/8
2018: 6/8
2017: 5/8
2016: 5/8
2015: 5/8
2014: 6/8
2013: 7/8
2012: 8/8
2011: 5/8
2010: 6/8
2009: 6/8
2008: 5/8
2007: 7/8
2006: 6/8

2006-2025 Total: 124/160 (.775)

Labels: Atlanta Hawks, Cleveland Cavaliers, Detroit Pistons, Miami Heat, Milwaukee Bucks, New York Knicks, Orlando Magic, Philadelphia 76ers

posted by David Friedman @ 11:41 AM

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Notes and Thoughts About the Second Quadrupleheader of the 2025 NBA Playoffs

Sunday featured the second quadrupleheader of the the 2025 NBA playoffs. My notes about the first quadrupleheader can be found here. 

Here are my thoughts about Sunday's games:

Game One: Oklahoma City Thunder 131, Memphis Grizzlies 80

Wait, the Thunder just had another fast break dunk...and another three pointer in transition. This game was the NBA version of "That escalated quickly." Memphis took a 4-0 lead, but the Thunder deluge soon hit: Oklahoma City led 33-20 at the end of the first quarter, and then knocked out the Grizzlies with a 20-0 run in a little over four minutes during the second quarter to push the lead to 55-22. By that point, the only questions were how big the final margin would be and how few points the Grizzlies would score.

The Grizzlies' lowest point total during the regular season was 99, and they would have needed a full extra quarter to reach that number versus the Thunder in game one. The 51 point gap is the fifth largest victory margin in NBA playoff history, and the largest game one win in NBA playoff history. An interesting footnote is that none of the four teams with larger single game playoff victory margins--the 2009 Nuggets (58), the 1956 Lakers (58), the 1973 Lakers (56), and the 2015 Bulls (54)--won an NBA title that season.

Most of the numbers from this game are ridiculously lopsided, but particularly noteworthy are the Thunder's 27-5 advantage in fast break points and the Thunder's 17-6 lead in three point field goals made. Every Thunder starter scored in double figures, and reserve Aaron Wiggins had a team-high 21 points. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, the 2025 NBA scoring champion, only played 23 minutes, scoring 15 points on 4-13 field goal shooting. Ja Morant and Marvin Bagley III were the only Grizzlies who scored in double figures (17 points each).

While it is true that the Grizzlies have a good record for an eighth seed (48-34), the Thunder defeated the Grizzlies 4-0 in the regular season, with victory margins of 24, 13, 17, and 21. Therefore, a Thunder blowout win in game one is not surprising. 

This is a good time to remember a classic quote from Danny Ainge during his playing career; after a blowout, Ainge correctly noted that the NBA is not the Tour de France: in the NBA, the next game starts 0-0, not with one team leading by the victory margin from the previous game. The Thunder are the much superior team, but one blowout does not mean that the next game will be a blowout or even that the series will be a sweep, although I picked the Thunder to sweep the Grizzlies.

Game Two: Boston Celtics 103, Orlando Magic 86

The Magic led 49-48 at halftime. Their bump and run perimeter defense frustrated and limited Boston's potent offense, but the Magic did not sustain the energy necessary to play that level of defense for a full 48 minutes. A bigger issue for the Magic is that their anemic offense could not generate enough points to remain competitive even though their defense held the Celtics to 13 points below their regular season scoring average. The gritty Magic will fight hard during this series and may even grind out one win, but their team is too limited to beat the Celtics four times in seven games

The Celtics won despite getting pedestrian scoring from their two best players. Jayson Tatum finished with just 17 points on 8-22 field goal shooting, but he also had a game-high 14 rebounds plus four assists. Jaylen Brown added 16 points on 6-14 field goal shooting. Derrick White more than picked up the slack with a team-high 30 points on 10-18 field goal shooting, including 7-12 from beyond the arc. Payton Pritchard contributed 19 points on 6-8 field goal shooting in 25 minutes off of the bench.

Paolo Banchero scored a game-high 36 points on 14-27 field goal shooting while grabbing 11 rebounds and passing for four assists, but Franz Wagner (23 points on 10-24 field goal shooting) was the only other Orlando player who scored more than seven points. The Magic committed 15 turnovers and shot just 34-81 (.420) from the field. To have any chance, the Magic need to protect the ball better, and they need to push the pace in transition after defensive stops to take some pressure off of their limited half court offense.

Game Three: Cleveland Cavaliers 121, Miami Heat 100

The Cavaliers led 31-24 after the first 12 minutes, and--much like Orlando versus Boston--the Heat don't have enough offensive firepower to be competitive in this matchup. The Cavaliers were ahead 62-54 at halftime, and after the Heat played the Cavaliers even in the third quarter (25-25) the Cavaliers pulled away by winning the fourth quarter, 34-21. Sixth Man of the Year candidate Ty Jerome was Cleveland's fourth quarter star, pouring in 16 points on 6-7 field goal shooting. He finished the game with 28 points, just two short of Donovan Mitchell's game-high 30 points on 11-19 field goal shooting. Mitchell tied Michael Jordan's NBA record by scoring at least 30 points in game one for the seventh consecutive series (Jordan had two separate such streaks of seven series). Mitchell's fellow All-Star backcourt partner Darius Garland added 27 points on 10-17 field goal shooting while also dishing for a team-high five assists. Bam Adebayo led the Heat with 24 points on 10-22 field goal shooting, and he also had a team-high nine rebounds. Tyler Herro scored 21 points on 7-18 field goal shooting.

The Cavaliers outrebounded the Heat 42-38, with Jarrett Allen (11 rebounds) leading the way. The Cavaliers were much more efficient offensively, shooting 45-88 (.511) from the field and committing just seven turnovers while the Heat shot 39-80 (.488) from the field and committed 14 turnovers. The Cavaliers narrowly won points in the paint (48-44) but shot 18-43 (.419) from three point range while holding the Heat to 13-31 (.419) shooting from beyond the arc. The Heat did not shoot terribly, but the Cavaliers took advantage of their "extra" possessions.

The Heat have more playoff experience--including several players who have played in the NBA Finals and one player who has won a championship (Andrew Wiggins)--but the Cavaliers have too much depth, size, and talent.

Game Four: Golden State Warriors 95, Houston Rockets 85

This game was the nightmare scenario for the Rockets in this matchup: despite holding the Warriors to 95 points (nearly 19 points below their season average) on .474 field goal shooting, they just could not generate enough offense to win. The death knell for the Rockets was when they scored 13 second quarter points on 6-18 (.333) field goal shooting; the Rockets outscored the Warriors by six points in the other three quarters but just could not overcome falling behind by as many as 23 points. The Rockets got to within three points in the fourth quarter but, as is often the case, the team that spends most of the game coming back does not have enough juice to close out the game.

Stephen Curry scored a game-high 31 points on 12-19 field goal shooting, including 10 points on 4-4 field goal shooting in the decisive second quarter. Jimmy Butler had an excellent all-around game with 25 points, seven rebounds, and a team-high six assists. Brandin Podziemski chipped in 14 points and five assists. Draymond Green had his customary triple single (four points, six rebounds, three assists) as the best player on the injury-riddled 2019-20 Warriors team that went 15-50 continues to ride the coattails of his star teammates; yes, Green plays good defense and sets good screens, but let's not get twisted the difference between being two-time NBA Finals MVP Kevin Durant or 2022 NBA Finals MVP Stephen Curry or two-time best player on an NBA Finals team Jimmy Butler with being a valuable supporting cast member. Green is not a dominant rebounder and one on one defender like Dennis Rodman, nor is he a defensive stopper like Michael Cooper: he is a very good complementary player around star players, but if he played for a team other than the Warriors no one would know anything about him other than he has a bad temper and a big mouth.

Alperun Sengun led the Rockets with 26 points on 11-18 field goal shooting while grabbing nine rebounds, but he needs a lot more help from Houston's version of the "Gang That Couldn't Shoot Straight": Dillon Brooks (11 points on 3-9 field goal shooting), Fred VanVleet (10 points on 4-15 field goal shooting), and Jalen Green (seven points on 3-15 field goal shooting) had "He with us" shooting performances, to borrow a Jalen Rose line (meaning that every time they shot and missed, the Warriors probably felt like saying, "He with us" because their poor shooting made them honorary Warriors).

The main bright spot for the Rockets is that they bludgeoned the Warriors on the glass, 52-36. Steven Adams had a game-high 12 rebounds in just 19 minutes, and he was the only Rocket with a positive plus/minus number (+4). The rebounding advantage is sustainable, so if the Rockets cut down on their turnovers (they had 16, compared to just 11 by the Warriors) and figure out how to make enough shots to score more than 100 points then they can still win this series.

Another factor to keep in mind is that Golden State's two best players are 37 years old (Curry) and 35 years old (Butler). Curry had a tendency to wear down during physical playoff series even when he was younger, and Butler is injury-prone, so if the Rockets keep up their physical play then that could pay dividends in a long series.

Labels: Boston Celtics, Cleveland Cavaliers, Golden State Warriors, Houston Rockets, Memphis Grizzlies, Miami Heat, Oklahoma City Thunder, Orlando Magic

posted by David Friedman @ 1:37 PM

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Heat Bludgeon Bulls and Mavericks Topple Kings to Stay Alive in the NBA Play-In Tournament

Perhaps the NBA's media partners feel obligated to rave about how great the NBA Play-In Tournament is, but I said it in 2021 during the first NBA Play-In Tournament and I will say it again now: Nine Versus Ten Does Not Add Up to Fantastic Basketball. In the pre-Adam Silver NBA, after the regular season ended we were spared from watching sub-.500 teams battle to claim the eighth seed; a team could only earn a playoff spot by playing as hard as possible during the season to finish in the top eight, without the safety net of having a second chance to "play in" to the playoffs.

The problem with having the ninth and tenth best teams face off in high profile games is that teams with losing records did not stack up losses by accident; they are flawed squads, and when you shine a national spotlight on those squads their flaws are glaringly obvious. Instead of creating gimmicks like the NBA Cup and the Play-In Tournament to try to discourage tanking and convince teams to play hard throughout the season, the NBA should have adopted the relegation system while also not allowing the worst teams to get the top draft picks; if the worst teams each season were dropped to a lower, less prestigious, and less lucrative league instead of being rewarded with the opportunity to draft the best young players, teams would not only stop losing on purpose but they would do their best to at least win enough to avoid relegation.

In the first game of Wednesday's ESPN doubleheader of uninspired basketball, the 37-45 Miami Heat tamed the 39-43 Chicago Bulls, 109-90. I erred by picking the Bulls--who went 15-5 in their last 20 games--to not only win this game but to win on Friday night to earn the eighth seed. The Bulls clearly preferred getting an early start on their summer vacation versus fighting to get into the playoffs; the Bulls never led, trailed by as many as 17 points in the first quarter, and allowed the anemic Heat offense to shoot 41-83 (.494) from the field as boos echoed throughout the United Center. Tyler Herro scored a game-high 38 points on 13-19 field goal shooting, while Josh Giddey paced the Bulls with 25 points on 9-21 field goal shooting. The Heat led 71-47 at halftime, and they led by at least 13 points the rest of the way. I thought that the Bulls would prove to be the better team, but the reality is that neither of these teams is very good, so in a one game winner take all showdown anything can happen--anything other than competitive and entertaining basketball.

The second game of the doubleheader was no better, with the home team again looking lethargic and offering little defensive resistance as the 39-43 Dallas Mavericks--who went 7-13 in their last 20 games--blasted the 40-42 Sacramento Kings, 120-106. It is fair to say that firing Coach Mike Brown and then trading De'Aaron Fox did not make the Kings better; the Kings went 6-9 down the stretch before rolling over and playing dead at home in the NBA Play-In Tournament. Even without the services of injured All-Star Kyrie Irving, the Mavericks made light work of the Kings, leading 71-48 at halftime (nearly matching the halftime margin of the Miami-Chicago fiasco) and maintaining at least a 16 point cushion throughout the second half until Terence Davis hit a meaningless three pointer with 19.9 seconds remaining to close out the scoring.

Anthony Davis led the Mavericks in scoring and rebounding (27 points, nine rebounds), Klay Thompson had a flashback shooting performance (23 points on 8-11 field goal shooting), Brandon Williams contributed 17 points and five assists in 18 minutes off of the bench, and P.J. Washington scored 17 points while tying Davis for team-high honors with nine rebounds. For the deposed Kings, DeMar DeRozan scored a game-high 33 points, Zach LaVine added 20 points on 8-19 field goal shooting along with nine assists and a game-high tying five turnovers, and Domantas Sabonis had 11 points, a game-high 13 rebounds, five assists, and five turnovers.

Since the NBA began the Play-In Tournament in 2021, no 10th seeded team has claimed the eighth seed in either conference; that will change on Friday night if Miami beats Atlanta or if Dallas beats Memphis.

Labels: Anthony Davis, Chicago Bulls, Dallas Mavericks, DeMar DeRozan, Josh Giddey, Klay Thompson, Miami Heat, Sacramento Kings, Tyler Herro

posted by David Friedman @ 1:53 AM

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