20 Second Timeout

Boston Versus Miami Preview

Eastern Conference Finals

#2 Boston (51-31) vs. #1 Miami (53-29)

Season series: Boston, 2-1

Miami can win if…the Heat can contain Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown without unleashing the Celtics' three point shooters. When the Celtics faced the Milwaukee Bucks in the second round, the Bucks elected to protect the paint and dare the Celtics to beat them from beyond the arc, which resulted in the Celtics setting a game seven record with 22 three pointers, including seven by Grant Williams. In contrast, despite having to contend with Joel Embiid in the paint for four games in a six game series, the Heat held the Philadelphia 76ers to .337 three point field goal shooting in the second round. 

Jimmy Butler has been one of the top performers in the 2022 playoffs. He is leading the Heat in playoff scoring (28.7 ppg), assists (5.4 apg), and steals (2.1 spg). He ranks second on the team in playoff rebounding (7.6 rpg), trailing Bam Adebayo by just .1 rpg. Adebayo is second on the team in playoff scoring (14.6 ppg) and steals (1.2 spg) while ranking first among the team's main rotation players in field goal percentage (.594). Tyler Herro has struggled at times during the postseason, but he is contributing 13.8 ppg (down from 20.7 ppg in the regular season). Injuries have forced All-Star point guard Kyle Lowry to miss six of the Heat's 11 playoff games. It seems unlikely that he will be healthy enough to have a major positive impact during this series.

Boston will win because…as much as this may sound like a cliche, the Celtics are peaking at the right time. They started the season slowly, but in the second half of the season they emerged as a championship contender. Other teams feared facing the Brooklyn Nets, but the Celtics not only embraced the possibility of that matchup but they swept the Nets. The Celtics then won a grueling seven game series against the defending champion Milwaukee Bucks.

Jayson Tatum has all the necessary tools to be an MVP: size, scoring ability from all areas of the court, rebounding, defense, ballhandling, passing. He has not won an MVP because (1) his statistics are good but not overwhelming, and (2) he does not have a signature playoff moment, let alone a championship. Defeating Kevin Durant and Giannis Antetokounmpo in back to back series greatly enhances Tatum's playoff resume. An NBA title would complete that resume.

Other things to consider: The Heat are an outstanding defensive team, but they are mediocre offensively and they can be bothered by size. The Heat beat the Celtics 4-2 in the 2020 Eastern Conference Finals held in the Orlando bubble, but the 2022 Celtics have more size (most notably Al Horford) and depth than the 2020 Celtics. 

The Celtics have now reached the Eastern Conference Finals four times in the past six years, but that accomplishment has flown under the radar because this version of the Celtics has yet to make it to the NBA Finals, let alone win a championship. The NBA has a level of built-in parity such that it is possible for a team to make a fluky one to the Conference Finals without being an elite team that sustains that level of success; recent examples include James Harden's Houston Rockets, and Trae Young's Atlanta Hawks (the Hawks may prove me wrong, but I doubt it). 

A star player or star duo leading a team to at least four Conference Finals will likely be remembered decades later, particularly if that team wins at least one championship during that run. In my time following the NBA, such teams include Julius Erving's Philadelphia 76ers (seven Conference Finals appearances, one NBA championship--including two CF appearances and one NBA championship playing alongside Moses Malone), Larry Bird's Boston Celtics (eight CF appearances, three NBA championships), the Magic-Kareem L.A. Lakers (10 CF appearances, five NBA championships--including one CF appearance after Kareem retired), Isiah Thomas' Detroit Pistons (five CF appearances, two NBA championships), the Jordan-Pippen Chicago Bulls (eight CF appearances, six NBA championships), the Shaq-Kobe Lakers (five CF appearances, three NBA championships; Kobe then made three CF appearances and won two NBA championships without Shaq), the ensemble Pistons (six CF appearances, one NBA championship), the James-Wade Heat (four CF appearances, two NBA championships), the James Cavaliers (four CF appearances, one NBA championship; James also made two CF appearances in his first tour of duty with the Cavaliers), and the ensemble Warriors (six CF appearances, three NBA championships--including three CF appearances and two NBA championships with Kevin Durant leading the team).

If the Celtics or Heat win an NBA championship (either this year, or in the next few years with the same stars), that will change their place in history; it is the difference between being teams like the 1980s Bucks or 1990s Cavaliers that were very good but never got over the hump, and being a team that is always remembered not only for winning a title but for having a stretch of sustained excellence. Erving's 76ers had the NBA's best regular season record from 1976-83, but if they had not won the 1983 NBA championship they would not be remembered the way that they are remembered now. Whether or not that is the way things should be, that is the way things are, so there is a lot of legacy at stake for both teams. If nothing changes, the 2020s Celtics and 2020s Heat will be lightly remembered as really good teams that did not quite have "it." One championship shifts the narrative.

Before the playoffs began, I picked Milwaukee to win the NBA championship, and I still think that the Bucks would have won the title if not for the Khris Middleton injury, so it is logical for me to now pick the team that beat the Bucks. That being said, I expect this series to be closely contested, and played at a high level. Erik Spoelstra has already established himself as a Hall of Fame caliber coach, while Boston's Ime Udoka has been very impressive in his first season as an NBA head coach.

Boston will win in six games. 

Labels: Bam Adebayo, Boston Celtics, Jaylen Brown, Jayson Tatum, Jimmy Butler, Miami Heat, Tyler Herro

posted by David Friedman @ 7:46 PM

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