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Monday, May 02, 2022

Warriors Overcome 13 Point Deficit to Beat Grizzlies as Morant Misses Layup at the Buzzer

In round one of a bout between former champions and young upstarts, score one for the former champions: the Golden State Warriors overcame a 13 point first half deficit to beat the Memphis Grizzlies 117-116 to gain home court advantage, but don't be surprised if this heavyweight fight goes the full distance. Jordan Poole led the Warriors with 31 points on 12-20 field goal shooting, including 5-10 from three point range. Stephen Curry shot poorly from the field (8-20) and he had a team-worst -9 plus/minus number, but he accumulated 24 points and the Warriors needed every single point. Andrew Wiggins had a solid game (17 points, eight rebounds). Klay Thompson had a wretched shooting night (15 points on 6-19 field goal shooting, 0-2 free throw shooting), but he hit what turned out to be the game-winning three pointer, and he also played a major role in the game-saving defensive play. 

Ja Morant scored a game-high 34 points on 14-31 field goal shooting, but his final miss is the one that will be remembered most because that shot was the difference between Memphis being up 1-0 or being down 0-1. In fairness to Morant, it must be noted that he scored 11 fourth quarter points to keep the Grizzlies alive, and he finished with a game-high 10 assists plus nine rebounds. Jaren Jackson Jr. had a playoff career-high 33 points, nailing hook shots in the paint while also connecting on 6-9 from three point range. De'Anthony Melton provided a spark with 14 points off of the bench and Brandon Clarke contributed 12 points plus nine rebounds, but the Grizzlies need more scoring/better shooting from Dillon Brooks (eight points, 3-13 field goal shooting) and Desmond Bane (nine points, 3-10 field goal shooting).

Many game stories focus on the fourth quarter--and this game had some key fourth quarter moments that deserve analysis--but the reality is that NBA games are often won or lost in the first half. Here, Memphis built a 42-29 lead early in the second quarter before a series of bad possessions at both ends of the court fueled a 10-0 Golden State run. The value of each possession in a playoff game should not be understated. The Grizzlies never enjoyed a double digit cushion the rest of the way, which set the stage for the Warriors being able to make just enough late game plays to win. 

Instead of mentioning that the Grizzlies frittered away their 13 point lead, most game stories that discuss the first half at all will focus on what happened at the 1:18 mark of the second quarter: Clarke drove to the hoop, Draymond Green smacked him in the face, pulled him down by his jersey, and then reached out at the last second to brace Clarke's fall after fouling him twice on the same play. The game officials reviewed the play, and assessed a flagrant foul penalty 2 against Green, which meant that Green was automatically ejected. Green then ran around the court like a fool before eventually going to the locker room. I have never understood why players celebrate being ejected. A flagrant foul penalty 2 is distinguished by contact that is deemed "unnecessary and excessive," while a flagrant foul penalty 1 is assessed for contact that is determined to be unnecessary but not excessive. These are subjective determinations to some extent, but the officials look at the windup, impact, and follow through of a foul to determine if the foul is a common foul, a flagrant foul penalty 1, or a flagrant foul penalty 2. Contact above the neck area is deemed to be more serious--and more likely to be classified as a flagrant foul-- than contact below the neck (except for contact to the groin, of course). Green hit Clarke hard in the face, so there was clearly windup, impact, and follow through above the neck area. Green then yanked Clarke out of the air. The notion that Green should not get a flagrant foul penalty 2 because he did not just let Clarke hit the court with full force after fouling him twice makes no sense. Green had already done enough to earn an ejection before Clarke landed; if Green had not braced Clarke's fall, Green may have been looking at a suspension in addition to an ejection. If Green thinks that he is being unfairly targeted by the officials, then there is a simple solution for him: don't hit opponents in the face or groin. I guarantee that if he stops doing those two things he will stop being assessed flagrant fouls and ejections.

The Grizzlies led 54-53 before Green was ejected. They pushed that margin to six, 61-55, by halftime, but the Warriors actually did better in the second half with a big lineup than they did in the first half with a smaller lineup featuring Green at center. The Grizzlies usually win the rebounding battle, but the Warriors outrebounded them, 51-47. Six Warriors had more rebounds than Green, who finished with just four. An even more significant issue for the Grizzlies than not winning the rebounding battle is that the Grizzlies gave up several easy scoring opportunities to cutters. The Warriors deserve credit for being a team that moves well without the ball, but it was also apparent that the Grizzlies simply blew many defensive assignments. The rebounding and defensive issues also contributed to the Grizzlies playing at a slower than desirable pace; the Grizzlies are at their best when they get stops, control the boards, and then attack in transition before the opposing defense is set. Rebounding, defensive assignment discipline, and playing at a faster pace are three areas that the Grizzlies should be able to improve for game two and the rest of the series.

After the Grizzlies blew their double digit lead and after the Warriors went with a bigger second half lineup sans Green, the game was close the rest of the way. Thompson's three pointer with just under 37 seconds remaining put the Warriors up, 117-116. The Grizzlies should have pushed the ball up the court not only to try to score in transition but also to go for a two for one shot opportunity. Instead, the Grizzlies burned almost all 24 seconds off of the shot clock before Curry got a piece of Morant's layup attempt. The Grizzlies wasted an additional eight seconds before committing a foul, and then they lost nearly five more seconds before fouling Thompson, who is an excellent free throw shooter. Thompson missed both free throws, but after the second miss went out of bounds the officials were not able to determine who touched the ball last. Memphis controlled the ensuing jump ball, and called a timeout. The Grizzlies executed a wonderful inbounds play that resulted in Morant catching the ball on the move to the hoop. Morant made it all the way to the rim, but Thompson's contested hand influenced Morant to loft the shot too high, and it missed the mark as time expired. Morant stood in shocked disbelief by the basket stanchion as the Warriors celebrated.

The significance of not only winning game one but also stealing home court advantage should not be understated; the Grizzlies face an uphill battle now. However, the Grizzlies demonstrated during game one that there are matchup advantages that they can exploit throughout this series, and they also made some unforced errors that they are capable of correcting. Based on those matchup advantages, I predicted that Memphis would win this series in seven games. I expect Memphis to win game two, split the games at Golden State to reclaim home court advantage, and then take games five and seven at home in what may turn out to be the best and most competitive playoff series in 2022.

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posted by David Friedman @ 2:08 AM

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