20 Second Timeout

NBA Wags a Stern Finger at Draymond Green for Confronting a Fan During a Game

The NBA has reportedly issued a "warning" to Draymond Green after Green went chest to chest with a courtside fan in New Orleans on Sunday as Green's Golden State Warriors defeated the New Orleans Pelicans, 124-106. The fan had been chanting "Angel Reese" at Green after Green missed several shots. Reese is a WNBA player who is notorious for seemingly padding her rebound totals by collecting her own missed shots. Green finished with eight points on 3-13 field goal shooting, 10 rebounds (including four offensive rebounds), six assists, and five turnovers; in the first quarter, Green scored 0 points on 0-7 field goal shooting, and he had four offensive rebounds (all of which were from his own missed layups or attempted tip in shots). The fan's chanting may have been annoying to Green, but it was not vulgar, and it pertained to the action on the court, as opposed to being a random or offensive insult. Fans have a right to cheer or boo, and to heckle as long as the heckling is not vulgar/offensive and not interfering with other fans being able to watch the game.

It is not clear what Green thought that he could accomplish by approaching the fan, who did not back away and did not seem intimidated by Green; it is also not clear what the NBA thinks that it can accomplish by issuing an unofficial warning to Green, who has a long history of violent misconduct despite being fined and suspended multiple times; if forcing Green to miss games and lose money did not straighten him out, a verbal warning is unlikely to have much impact.

Green has quite a rap sheet demonstrating his immaturity and his lack of emotional control. In the 2016 playoffs, Green kicked Steven Adams in the groin, and Green was suspended for game five of the NBA Finals after striking LeBron James in the groin in game four. Green consistently gets away with running roughshod over referees with incessant (and often vulgar) complaining/whining, he viciously punched then-teammate Jordan Poole in 2022, he stomped on Domantas Sabonis twice while Sabonis was down on the floor during a 2023 playoff game, he choked Rudy Gobert during a 2023 regular season game, and he slugged Jusuf Nurkic in the face during a 2023 regular season game. 

Green specializes in attacking players who are (1) not standing up or are in an otherwise compromised position and (2) are either smaller than he is or are clearly not going to fight back. Green had a chance to confront Ron Artest/Metta World Peace several years ago and somehow managed to not attempt a chokehold, groin kick, or punch--because Green is a bully who knows better than to pick a fight with someone who is crazier or tougher than he is. There may not be that many players left in the NBA who are willing to fight at the cost of being fined/suspended, but Green knows very well who they are and he gives them a wide berth. However, people like Green who think that they know who to mess with only have to make one mistake to end up in a precarious situation in which either they get injured or they injure someone else--and Green is fortunate that the players he has struck, kicked, and choked did not end up with serious injuries. What if Poole had suffered brain damage or Gobert had suffered a broken neck? There are many people in prison because the people who they hit in the face or who they choked suffered serious or even fatal injuries.

Green also has an outsized belief not only regarding his worth/power, but the worth/power of athletes in general vis a vis the owners who employ them (and the fans who ultimately pay their salaries by purchasing tickets and merchandise). After the NBA suspended Green for choking Gobert, I lamented Green's anger control issues and inflated sense of entitlement: 

Green is the poster child for athletes who are paid far more than they could ever earn doing anything else, and who have developed a sense of entitlement without a corresponding sense of responsibility regarding their conduct. If Green did not have the NBA to protect him, there is a strong possibility that he would be in jail--or dead--as a consequence of his inability to control his anger. Sadly, neither of those possibilities can be ruled out if he does not seek help. Gobert referred to Green as a "clown" and I can understand why he feels that way, but this is no laughing matter: Green needs help both to protect others and to protect himself, because his behavior goes well beyond just being a physical player. In the sense that Green is overrated, Gobert is correct: without the injured Stephen Curry and Klay Thompson around to carry the load, the Warriors went 15-50 in 2019-20 as Green averaged 8.0 ppg on .389 field goal shooting while looking very much like a role player and very little like the Hall of Famer he is purported to be. Green seems to get very angry when his limitations as a player are pointed out, but that does not change the reality that he is a limited player whose specific talents can be helpful for a team already stacked with talent but don't make much impact on winning otherwise. 

In December 2023, I warned that the NBA is taking a risk by not sufficiently disciplining Green for his out of control violent behavior:

If the NBA keeps protecting Green from the natural consequences of his actions, Green is going to eventually do something so egregious that the NBA will no longer be able to protect him because the judicial system will be compelled to intervene. Draymond Green is a 6-6, 230 walking time bomb that is going to explode in the league's face if Commissioner Silver does not take strong action--and if time bomb Green explodes, the league is not going to be able to successfully argue in court that the explosion was not foreseeable given Green's track record of violent behavior. 

Green has some basketball skills, but he is not as good as he thinks he is. Green should not be compared to Hall of Famers Dennis Rodman or Ben Wallace. Rodman won seven straight rebounding titles, and would have been a dominant rebounder regardless of who his teammates were. Wallace won two rebounding titles and one shot blocking title, and he ranked in the top 10 in the league in those categories seven times each overall. Neither Rodman nor Wallace could have been the best player on a championship team, but both were statistically dominant players. In contrast, Green has only led the NBA in a statistical category once (steals per game in 2016-17), he has never ranked in the top ten in rebounds per game or blocked shots per game, and he is heavily dependent on being surrounded by great players who do most of the work, as I noted last year when I assessed Green's legacy:

Green is going to ride his triple single career averages (8.7 ppg, 7.0 rpg, 5.6 apg) all the way to the Naismith Memorial Basketball Hall of Fame because he was lucky enough to play alongside Kevin Durant, Stephen Curry, Klay Thompson, and Andre Iguodala. Is "lucky" a fair adjective? What would Green's career have looked like without those guys? Glad you asked: in the 2019-20 season, Iguodala and Durant were gone (Green played a role in chasing Durant away, but that is another story), Thompson missed the whole season due to injury, and Curry played in just five games due to injury. Green showed the world who he really is as a player, averaging 8.0 ppg on .389 field goal shooting along with 6.2 rpg and 6.2 apg for a 15-50 team. So, yes, "lucky" seems about right.  

Green will be 36 years old soon, and his pedestrian numbers so far this season (7.9 ppg on .391 field goal shooting, 5.8 rpg) indicate that his playing days will be over soon. Green's retirement will be a mixed blessing: the good news is that we will no longer have to watch him deliver cheap shots to opposing players and we will no longer have to listen to his self-serving excuses for his lack of emotional self-control; the bad news is that he likely will be paid millions of dollars per year to be a commentator for one of the NBA's media partners, turning that media partner's pregame show into a mess almost as unwatchable as any pregame show featuring "Screamin' A" Smith. Green is supposed to have a high basketball IQ, but that has not been evident thus far when he has been a TV commentator; to cite just one example, when he participated in TNT's coverage of the 2024 Western Conference Finals he was more interested in bashing Gobert than in providing intelligent analysis, as I pointed out in my game two recap:

An intelligent, unbiased commentator would talk about the final possession of the game when Dallas gave up an open three pointer to Naz Reid even though Reid was the hottest three point shooter in the game. Reid's shot barely missed, but just as it could be argued that Minnesota should not have given up a three pointer to Doncic with a two point lead it could also be argued that Dallas should not have given up an open shot to Reid, one of the few Minnesota players who shot well in this game.

Instead, Green focused his attention on Gobert, sounding like a little kid on the playground teasing another kid as opposed to sounding like an intelligent, unbiased commentator analyzing what happened. It is valid to question why Minnesota left Gobert in the game for the last defensive possession instead of going small, switching everything, and forcing Dallas to shoot a two point shot--but it is silly to act as if Gobert is personally responsible for Doncic hitting the kind of shot that he has hit many times before against many other players.  

Gobert has one of the best plus/minus numbers overall during the 2024 playoffs, and the Timberwolves have outscored the Mavericks during his minutes this series while being outscored when Gobert is out of the game. I would not be surprised if "Screamin' A" Smith acted as if an entire 48 minute NBA game can be boiled down to one shot, but intelligent commentators understand that the last play is not necessarily what decided the outcome. Here, the Timberwolves enjoyed a 16 point third quarter lead before their offense fell apart; are we supposed to pretend like all of those empty offensive possessions had nothing to do with the final result?

Green is either an idiot or a buffoon: he either does not know what he is talking about, or he does not care how foolish he sounds. It is interesting that Kenny Smith was the only person on the TNT set who was willing to even tentatively challenge Green's nonsense both before and after the game. Smith noted that the Timberwolves have outscored the Mavericks during Gobert's minutes, and Smith emphasized that Doncic could have made that last shot over anyone, not just Gobert. Charles Barkley and Shaquille O'Neal did not contradict Green, but they correctly focused on Towns' shortcomings and they made the valid point that if the Timberwolves are going to play big then their big men must play with force in the paint. The Timberwolves' problem is that they are not attacking the paint offensively--and that problem must be fixed by Edwards and Towns. The problem is not drop coverage or Rudy Gobert or any other nonsense spewed by Green. If Green keeps lying about Gobert it would be great if someone had the guts to tell the truth about Green, and his triple single exploits on .389 field goal shooting for the 15-50 Warriors during the 2019-20 season when Green did not have Kevin Durant, Stephen Curry, Klay Thompson, or Andre Iguodala to do the heavy lifting. I'll double down on what I said before: Green will be inducted in the Basketball Hall of Fame primarily because he was lucky enough to play alongside those four players. 

It is also worth mentioning that Green went 0-3 versus Minnesota this season, and 1-2 last season (Golden State beat Minnesota once in 2022-23 when Green did not play, an example of addition by subtraction). If Green is so smart, maybe he should use that big brain to figure out how to do better than 1-5 versus the player and team that he keeps mocking.

The NBA and TNT should have been embarrassed to put Green on the air in the first place after his numerous violent incidents, and they should be even more embarrassed by how he is doing his part-time job. When David Stern was the NBA's Commissioner, he took the consistent position that it was important to promote the game and uplift the players. How does it promote the game to uplift a violent and petty person like Green to a position of prominence so that Green can mock the league's Defensive Player of the Year? If Gobert is as bad as Green suggests, then either the league is trash, or the media members who do the voting are idiots; neither scenario is a good look for the league. 

The NBA under Commissioner Adam Silver has coddled Green for too long, and no one should be surprised when Green does something so egregious that the NBA will not be able to protect Green from legal consequences. What if Green had hit the New Orleans fan like he hit Poole? Green would be in jail, and he, the Warriors, and the NBA would likely be facing a multi-million dollar lawsuit. It is easy to retort that Green did not hit the fan because Green knows what boundaries he cannot cross, but Green has crossed multiple boundaries already, so relying on him to exercise good judgment is quite a gamble, even for a league that does not mind being in bed with legalized gambling operations.

Labels: Adam Silver, Domantas Sabonis, Draymond Green, Golden State Warriors, Jordan Poole, Jusuf Nurkic, NBA, New Orleans Pelicans, Rudy Gobert

posted by David Friedman @ 12:05 PM

2 comments

NBA Opening Night 2022 Featured Powerful Bill Russell Tribute and Wins by Last Season's NBA Finalists

NBA Opening Night 2022 began with a two and a half hour TNT pregame show. The highlight of that show was a tribute about Bill Russell titled "Answer the Call." The tribute's first segment featured interviews with several NBA legends--including Kareem Abdul-Jabbar, Julius Erving, Spencer Haywood, Magic Johnson, Alonzo Mourning, Dikembe Mutombo, Shaquille O'Neal, Paul Pierce, Isiah Thomas, and Jerry West--talking about how Russell loved to call them and dispense wisdom about basketball and life. 

Erving noted that sometimes he can be "funny" about talking on the phone, but that he answered every time that Russell called. Thomas remembered that Russell called him after his fateful turnover at the end of game five of the 1987 Eastern Conference Finals, and Russell told him that he has to keep pushing forward, not letting that moment define him. It is remarkable to think about a Boston Celtics legend calling a Detroit Pistons star to uplift him in the middle of a closely contested playoff series versus the Celtics, but when you consider that Russell also formed a close relationship with L.A. Lakers great Kobe Bryant it is clear that Russell felt that his role as NBA elder statesman was larger than team loyalties and involved raising the game as a whole. 

Johnson said that after he made his 1991 announcement that he was HIV positive, Russell sought him out not for a phone conversation but for an in person meeting during which Russell embraced him, told him that he had been a winner his whole life, and that he would beat HIV. Johnson said that was exactly what he needed at that moment--to literally be embraced at a time when there was so much fear about HIV and HIV positive people.

West treasures a note that Russell sent to him stating how much the players around the league respect him. West said that he will carry Russell with him in his heart until the day he dies.

Haywood said that in 1980, Bill Russell saw him not looking or sounding right during an interview, called him, spoke to him frankly, and put him on the road to recovery from being a cocaine addict.

The tribute's second segment focused on Russell's pivotal role in the Civil Rights Movement. After Medgar Evers was assassinated, Russell called Evers' brother Charles and asked what he could do to help. Charles Evers asked Russell to go to Mississippi and run a basketball camp to help desegregate the state--and Russell did that, at the height of segregation and strife in the Deep South. Russell's participation in the famous 1967 Muhammad Ali Summit in Cleveland with (among others) Jim Brown and a very young Kareem Abdul-Jabbar (then known as Lew Alcindor) was shown as well.

After the tribute aired, TNT's newly re-signed studio crew of Charles Barkley, Shaquille O'Neal, Kenny Smith, and Ernie Johnson shared their personal reflections about Russell. Barkley noted that Russell was an outspoken advocate for social justice at a time when Russell did not have the security of generational wealth, in contrast to many of today's athletes. O'Neal mentioned how much it meant to him to earn Russell's respect, and O'Neal briefly lamented that he never developed that kind of relationship with Wilt Chamberlain or Kareem Abdul-Jabbar. Smith described how honored he feels to be Bill Russell's first draft choice as Sacramento's coach, and Smith talked about how he and all of his children were able to visit with Russell near the end of Russell's life. Johnson talked about how much he enjoys hosting the NBA's Legends Brunch during All-Star Weekend, recalling that Russell would typically be sitting front and center.

Unfortunately, that great start to the telecast was soon followed by what was essentially a 20 minute infomercial for Draymond Green as father/great team player/upstanding member of the community who enjoys interacting with fans. Draymond Green assaulting and battering teammate Jordan Poole was little more than a postscript to the glowing tribute that could have passed for a paid advertisement produced by Green's public relations team. It could not be more obvious that TNT is hoping that Green will have a major role with the network after his playing career ends.

I give Barkley credit for declaring that Green was "100% wrong" and for pointing out that there is something very jarring about Green saying that he did not give much thought to what he did until the video of his punch was released; Barkley stated what should be obvious: punching a co-worker is unacceptable regardless of whether or not video footage of the punch is seen by the public. Barkley said that he spent the first four seasons of his NBA career playing on edge because he was angry about various things that happened before he made it to the NBA, and he added that when you regularly play on edge then you will also end up going over the edge. Barkley admitted that he had gone over the edge many times before he changed his attitude, and he urged Green to undergo a similar attitude change. Smith suggested that, in light of the NBA's multiple offseason scandals involving various kinds of poor conduct, the NBA should institute counseling programs to help players adjust to having so much money and being under so much scrutiny. 

It says a lot about the current state of the NBA that the entirety of Commissioner Adam Silver's appearance on the pregame show consisted of talking about Green's punch (and Green's use of a racial slur directed at Kendrick Perkins during the summer), Phoenix owner Robert Sarver being suspended for a full season, and Boston Celtics coach Ime Udoka being suspended for a full season. Ernie Johnson asked Silver a pointed question about whether--in light of so many incidents and scandals involving different teams--the public should have confidence in the way that the NBA's 30 franchises are being run. Silver conceded that this is a legitimate question, but then said that even though it is legitimate question to ask he has full confidence in how the NBA's franchises are being run. 

Regarding Green not being suspended by the team or by the league, Silver said that the Warriors have earned the league's trust to do the right thing, and that typically the league will only step in when a situation involves two teams as opposed to an internal matter. To understand how absurd that is, just imagine any other workplace in which one employee punches another in the face--or imagine a star player being punched in the face by a non-star player. Do you suppose that the response might be different? 

The NBA's hypocrisy is stunning, yet not surprising: some people can punch other people in the face but face no real consequences, and some people can utter racial slurs while facing no consequences, but other people would face significant consequences for similar (or even lesser) offenses. As always, the NBA cares about profits above all else, and every action that Silver and the league take--or do not take--should be viewed through that lens.

In response to a question from Barkley about Sarver, Silver stated that as Commissioner his power is limited to fining Sarver up to $10,000,000 (which Silver did) and suspending him. Silver added that he does not have the power to force an owner to sell his team. This is technically correct, though it should be recalled that Silver's public statements in 2014 about banning Donald Sterling for life go well beyond what Silver actually is empowered to do.

In the first game of TNT's doubleheader, the Boston Celtics defeated the Philadelphia 76ers, 126-117.  Boston jumped out to a 9-2 lead, and the Celtics were ahead 9-3 when Al Horford had to go to the bench with his second foul; that call was a flagrant foul after Horford put his foot in James Harden's landing space on a three point shot attempt. Harden hit all three free throws, igniting a run that resulted in Philadelphia leading 29-24 at the end of the first quarter as Harden scored 16 points on 3-4 field goal shooting and 8-8 free throw shooting. Harden scored 22 first half points on 5-9 field goal shooting, but Boston rallied to tie the score at 63 by intermission. Joel Embiid scored 11 first half points on 3-7 field goal shooting, and the TNT crew rightly criticized Embiid for being too passive. Jaylen Brown (18 points) and Jayson Tatum (16 points) paced Boston's first half scoring.

The Celtics broke the game open in the third quarter, surging to a 95-82 lead before settling for a 98-88 advantage heading into the final stanza. The 76ers cut the margin to six early in the fourth quarter, but trailed by double digits for most of the final eight minutes before Tobias Harris slammed home a meaningless dunk with just under 30 seconds remaining.

Tatum finished with 35 points on 13-20 field goal shooting plus 12 rebounds, four assists, and a game-high +10 plus/minus number. Brown scored 35 points on 14-24 field goal shooting. The Celtics are not at full strength--they are missing injured center Robert Williams III, an excellent defensive player and powerful finisher in the paint--but they look like they are poised to make a deep playoff run.

The Celtics shot .561 from the field as the 76ers provided little defensive resistance throughout the game; there were several live ball turnovers after which Embiid and/or Harden did not even reach halfcourt before Boston scored or at least attempted a high percentage shot. As Jeff Van Gundy often says, horses trot but players run. You can rest assured that when a team's two highest profile players do not consistently put forth effort on defense that infects the whole team. The 76ers have a lot of talent, and that will enable them to win a decent amount of regular season games, particularly in a league where several teams are tanking--but there is still no reason to believe that this group has the right mentality or will develop the necessary habits to win a playoff series against an elite team. Harden scored 35 points--his single-game high as a 76er--on 9-14 field goal shooting; he looks to be in good shape physically, and he also looks to be primarily focused on what he can do offensively from an individual standpoint, as opposed to what he can do to maximize his team's chances to win a championship. Embiid finished with 26 points, 15 rebounds, five assists, and six turnovers; people who only look at individual numbers will say that Embiid and Harden are on their way to All-NBA caliber seasons, while people who understand the game will recognize that the 76ers still look like a team that will not advance past the second round of the playoffs.  

I would agree with anyone who says that broad conclusions should not be made based on one game, but I would also say (with a nod to Aristotle) that you are what you repeatedly do; the habits formed early in the season provide an indicator of the identity that a team has (or is forming). The Celtics have championship-level habits, which is why they have reached the Eastern Conference Finals four times and the NBA Finals once in the past six years; the 76ers do not have championship-level habits, and that is why--rather than "tanking to the top," as one writer erroneously asserted--they annually fail to advance past the second round of the playoffs.

In the nightcap, the Golden State Warriors received their 2022 NBA championship rings, and then they reminded everyone the difference between being a contender and being a pretender as they routed the L.A. Lakers, 123-109. I don't have a problem with LeBron James chasing Kareem Abdul-Jabbar's regular season career scoring record, but James should just admit that the main reason he is playing now is to surpass that mark: his Lakers are not built to win a championship, and James is not playing like a player whose main goal is to win a championship. In the first quarter, James scored three points on 1-5 field goal shooting while posting a -8 plus/minus number as the Warriors led 25-22.

The Warriors led 59-52 at halftime despite shooting just .420 from the field. Stephen Curry (16 points on 5-13 field goal shooting) and Jordan Poole (10 points on 3-7 field goal shooting) were the only Warriors who scored in double figures. Anthony Davis led the Lakers with 15 points while shooting 6-13 from the field, while James added 14 points on 5-15 field goal shooting. Russell Westbrook contributed 11 points on 5-8 field goal shooting and he had the best plus/minus number among the Lakers' starters (-1). At halftime, Barkley succinctly summarized the Lakers with three points: (1) They stink, (2) Davis and James are just out there having fun and getting meaningless numbers, and (3) the Lakers have scapegoated Westbrook to the point that they have stolen from him the joy of playing basketball. Barkley emphasized how much he respects Westbrook, and how upset he is about how Westbrook has been mistreated since joining the Lakers last season.

The Warriors are well known for obliterating their opponents in the third quarter, and this game was no exception as they built a 27 point lead (91-64) before settling for a 91-71 advantage heading into the fourth quarter. The Lakers never threatened in the fourth quarter, and their much-ballyhooed new defense is still a work in progress, to put it charitably. Curry scored a game-high 33 points on 10-22 field goal shooting, while Andrew Wiggins chipped in 20 points, six rebounds, and four assists. Klay Thompson added 18 points in 20 minutes, and Poole finished with 12 points. Green tallied a "triple single" (four points, five rebounds, and five assists), and his plus/minus number (+12) ranked fourth among the Warriors' five starters.

James continued to pad his scoring numbers in the fourth quarter while the Lakers never pulled to within closer than 12 points. James finished with a team-high 31 points, a game-high 14 rebounds, and a game-high eight assists. Those numbers are remarkable for anyone, let alone a nearly 38 year old veteran of 20 seasons--but those numbers also look and feel like "empty calories" in the context of the flow of the game and from the perspective of the Lakers trying to win a title. James is not playing much defense (he had no steals and no blocked shots in 35 minutes), and he attempted three more field goals than any other player on either team; he was never a pass-first player, and he sure is not a pass-first player now. James shot 12-25 from the field and 3-10 from three point range. Is his shot selection based on controlling the pace of the game, slowing down the Warriors and maximizing the Lakers' offensive efficiency, or is his shot selection based on making sure that he averages 28-30 ppg to catch Abdul-Jabbar as soon as possible? 

Davis managed to avoid injury, but he also managed to avoid having any discernible, meaningful impact on the game. He had 27 points on 10-22 field goal shooting, six rebounds, zero assists, and a game-worst -21 plus/minus number. 

Westbrook scored 19 points on 7-12 field goal shooting, he grabbed 11 rebounds, and he dished for three assists, but as I type these words someone is splicing together a clip of his four turnovers and his airball three pointer to "prove" that Westbrook is the Lakers' biggest problem. James had five turnovers and seven missed three pointers, but those 12 squandered possessions will be ignored by the mainstream media and on social media.

There is no denying James' talent and his durability, but it is interesting to look at his championship impact during his era compared to the championship impact of other great players: George Mikan dominated the late 1940s/early 1950s while winning five titles, Bill Russell dominated in the 1950s and 1960s while winning 11 titles in 13 seasons, Julius Erving won three titles in a 10 year span (more than any other star player from 1974-83), Kareem Abdul-Jabbar won six titles during his 20 year career, Magic Johnson won five titles in a nine year span, Michael Jordan won six titles in an eight year span, Shaquille O'Neal won four titles in a seven year span, Kobe Bryant won five titles in an 11 year span, and Tim Duncan won five titles in a 15 year span. Entering his 20th season, James won four titles in a nine year span, but he has never been the league's dominant winner during his career: O'Neal, Bryant and Duncan dominated the 2000s, while Stephen Curry has dominated the late 2010s/early 2020s with four titles in an eight year span. I will never understand the notion that the greatest player of all-time conversation is limited to just Jordan versus James--because it is far from clear that James surpassed Bryant, O'Neal, or even Duncan in the post- Jordan era.

Curry's place in history is interesting to evaluate. He was clearly the second best player behind Kevin Durant on two of his four championship teams, but he has also been an All-NBA caliber player for all four of his championship teams. One comparison that comes to mind is John Havlicek. Havlicek won eight championships, but Bill Russell was the best player on six of those teams, and Havlicek earned just one Finals MVP (the award did not exist during Havlicek's first six championship seasons, but he would not have won the award during any of those NBA Finals had the Finals MVP been given out in the 1960s). I would argue that Havlicek was a better all-around player than Curry--Havlicek was bigger and stronger, and Havlicek was elite at both ends of the court while Curry is only elite offensively. As great as Havlicek was, no one has seriously suggested that he was the greatest player of all-time or even the greatest player of his time, but he did make the 11 player 35th Anniversary Team selected in 1980. Since 1980, Larry Bird, Magic Johnson, Michael Jordan, Shaquille O'Neal, Kobe Bryant, Tim Duncan, LeBron James, Kevin Durant, and Giannis Antetokounmpo have all surpassed Havlicek, so if one buys the premise that Havlicek was better than Curry then it is difficult to accept the notion that Curry should be ranked in the all-time top 10. One of the problems is that many people who do such rankings (1) lack historical knowledge/context and (2) are not consistent with the standards that they apply. 

I have followed James' career from the start--and attended many of his games in person during his first stint in Cleveland--and I have always found him both amazing and baffling. As great as he has been and still is, I would argue that he is missing something when being compared to the dominant winners such as Russell, Abdul-Jabbar, Magic, Jordan, and Bryant. Russell went 11-1 in the NBA Finals, Abdul-Jabbar went 6-4, Magic went 5-4, Jordan went 6-0, and Bryant went 5-2. James' Finals record is 4-6. That is not terrible, and I know that some people would argue that James should not be "punished" for supposedly carrying inferior teams to the NBA Finals (though I don't give much credence to that, because one player cannot carry a team to the NBA Finals, and James has consistently had more help than many media members are willing to admit)--but is a 4-6 NBA Finals mark indicative of being so great that no player other than Jordan is even in the conversation with James? I don't buy the argument that James' longevity is being held against him; if we pretend that he retired after winning the 2016 title, then he has a 3-4 NBA Finals record and he is not close to being the leading scorer of all-time. How does pretending that the past six years did not happen help James' case for being ranked as the greatest player of all-time? 

It is foolish to try to diminish James' status to the extent of pretending that he does not belong in the greatest player of all-time conversation, but it is odd to suggest that James has clearly surpassed every player in pro basketball history with the possible exception of Jordan, because the eye test, the numbers, and historical context do not support that sweeping assertion and that casual dismissal of the accomplishments of other all-time great players.

Labels: Adam Silver, Bill Russell, Boston Celtics, Draymond Green, Golden State Warriors, Ime Udoka, Jordan Poole, L.A. Lakers, LeBron James, Philadelphia 76ers, Robert Sarver, Stephen Curry

posted by David Friedman @ 2:59 AM

39 comments

Draymond Green is Who We Thought He Was

Eventually, people reveal who they are such that there can be no doubt about who they are. Some people are skillful at carefully crafting an image, but the truth inevitably comes out. If you are a bully who has anger control/emotional control issues, then the spin control narrative that you "need to play with an edge to be successful" will eventually be shattered by the reality that you don't have an edge--you have anger control/emotional control issues.

Draymond Green has been a polarizing figure for a long time. Some people claim that he is a smart and great player who has been indispensable to Golden State's success. I have consistently asserted that Green "is a very good player who can have a positive impact, but at the core he is an undersized power forward who is not a scoring threat and who can be overpowered by any big player who has a modicum of skill. There is no way that Green could be the best player on a playoff team, and no one would have ever heard of him if he had not been blessed to play with multiple All-Star caliber players throughout his career." I have also observed that Green "is permitted to repeatedly throw opposing players to the ground, hit opposing players with forearms and/or elbows aimed above the neck, and instigate confrontations while only being punished with one technical foul. As ABC's Jeff Van Gundy has repeatedly noted, there is a bizarre double standard that works in Green's favor: Green is expected to behave poorly, so he is therefore given a benefit of the doubt that is not given to players who are more mild-mannered."

In short, Green is a very good player, but he is also overrated, and he has anger control/emotional control issues that have yet to be addressed because his conduct is not regulated by the league or by his team.

The video of Green walking up to his teammate Jordan Poole in a practice and then, after Poole lightly shoved him, hitting Poole in the face with a vicious closed-fist punch that visibly wobbled Poole confirms much of what I have said about Green. The only point to add is that bullies who have anger control/emotional control issues tend to pick on smaller people, as was the case with this battery (legally, assault is threatening to hit someone, while battery is actually hitting someone--Green may have committed assault, but there is no question that he committed battery). Green may be willing to commit a dirty foul against anyone, but I am not sure that he would walk up to someone his own size and punch him in the face.

Now that the video has been leaked to the public, it will be interesting to see what the Warriors and the NBA do. There is a big difference between a practice skirmish or even a practice fight, and a player delivering a punch with tremendous force to his teammate's face. 

Green should be suspended without pay for a large number of games. The NBA excels at detecting which way public opinion winds are blowing, so how media members (and social media commenters) react to Green's battery of Poole will probably play a significant role in determining the extent of the discipline that Green receives--but, whatever, the outcome, the truth about who Green is and what he is about is very clear. Some of us have understood the truth for a while, but perhaps others needed the video evidence.

Labels: Draymond Green, Golden State Warriors, Jordan Poole

posted by David Friedman @ 4:27 PM

12 comments

Boston Versus Golden State Preview

NBA Finals

Boston (51-31) vs. Golden State (53-29) 

Season series: Tied, 1-1

Golden State can win if…the "Splash Brothers" trio--Stephen Curry, Klay Thompson, and Jordan Poole--not only maintain their long distance sharpshooting but they continue to attack closeouts with aggressive drives to the hoop. The Warriors also must move actively off of the ball, and they must defend Boston's big wings Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown without committing so much help defense that the paint becomes open for drives, post ups and offensive rebounds.

Curry is leading Golden State in 2022 playoff scoring (25.9 ppg) and playoff assists (6.2 apg). His shooting splits (.449/.380/.822) are below his career norms across the board, but not by much (other than free throw shooting). Curry averaged 23.8 ppg, 7.4 apg, and 6.8 apg with shooting splits of .444/.439/.840 in the Warriors' Western Conference Finals win against the Dallas Mavericks en route to receiving the inaugural Magic Johnson Western Conference Finals MVP.

Thompson's 2022 playoff averages (19.8 ppg, 4.3 rpg, 2.4 apg, shooting splits of .457/.399/.800) almost mirror his career playoff averages of 19.3 ppg, 4.0 rpg, 2.2 apg with shooting splits of .444/.412/.838. The eye test says that he is not quite at the level he reached before suffering devastating knee and Achilles injuries, but the numbers say that he is still a very effective player. To the extent that he has lost a step, this is more evident on defense, which is why Andrew Wiggins now draws the toughest defensive assignment on the wings.

During the 2022 playoffs, Poole has been the most efficient of Golden State's three main sharpshooters, with shooting splits of .531/.393/.917. He is averaging 18.4 ppg and 4.5 apg.

In 2022, Andrew Wiggins made the All-Star team for the first time in his career. He is averaging 15.8 ppg in the playoffs, but his primary value (at least in the postseason) has been on defense.

Draymond Green is the quintessential example of a player who is very important for a good team but would be much less important for a weak team. As Charles Barkley jokingly notes, Green is averaging a "triple single" (8.7 ppg, 6.9 rpg, 6.3 apg) in the 2022 playoffs. The valuable things that Green does best are not easily measured: setting screens, making good reads (assist only partially track this), orchestrating the defense, guarding the opposing team's best big man, and being a willing and skilled help defender. If he did all of those things for a bad team, that team would still lose, but when he does all of those things for a stacked team that stacked team becomes very dangerous.

Kevon Looney's playoff numbers are not sensational (6.1 ppg, 7.7 rpg), but he is the only player in the Warriors' rotation who is big for his position. Size bothers the Warriors, but they get by with Looney taking care of one big man and Green's active defense filling in the gaps while Wiggins and Thompson do most of the perimeter work.

Boston will win because…size bothers the Warriors, and the Celtics have effective size at each position: big men Al Horford and Robert Williams will punish the Warriors in the paint, Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown are big wing players, and Defensive Player of the Year Marcus Smart plays bigger than his height/weight might suggest. 

The Celtics have been a legit contender for several years--reaching the Eastern Conference Finals in 2017, 2018, and 2020--but because they had not reached the NBA Finals since 2010 they have flown under the radar to some extent. After their slow start this season, they were not only under the radar but they were sinking beneath the sonar as well. 

Tatum is averaging 27.0 ppg, 6.7 rpg, 5.9 apg, and 1.2 spg with shooting splits of .446/.375/.833 in 18 playoff games. He won the inaugural Larry Bird Eastern Conference Finals MVP after averaging 25.0 ppg, 8.3 rpg, 5.6 apg, and 1.1 spg with shooting splits of .462./.353/.860 in a seven game series win versus the number one seeded Miami Heat. 

Brown averaged 24.1 ppg and 7.1 rpg versus the Heat, and during the playoffs overall he is averaging 22.9 ppg and 6.8 rpg. He is not as spectacular as Tatum, but he is perhaps the more consistent player.

Horford led the Celtics in rebounding versus the Heat (10.0 rpg), and he just missed averaging a double double during that series, scoring 9.8 ppg. He is averaging 11.9 ppg and a team-high 9.6 rpg during the playoffs.

Smart struggled with his shot versus the Heat (.360 FG%), but he contributed 16.6 ppg, 6.2 rpg, and a team-high 6.2 apg. Overall, his playoff averages are 15.5 ppg, 4.5 rpg, and a team-high 6.2 apg. Smart can defend point guards, shooting guards, and small forwards.

Other things to consider: Media members have their narratives ready: the Golden State Warriors are a great dynasty, Stephen Curry is a top 10 all-time player, and Kevin Durant was not the best player on the Warriors' back to back 2017-18 championship teams. 

The Warriors have reached the NBA Finals six times in the past eight seasons, which by historical standards is unquestionably a dynasty: only Bill Russell's Boston Celtics, the Jerry West-Elgin Baylor L.A. Lakers, the Magic Johnson-Kareem Abdul-Jabbar L.A. Lakers, and the Michael Jordan-Scottie Pippen Chicago Bulls made it to the NBA Finals at least six times in an eight year span. It should be emphasized that Russell's Celtics are in a category by themselves, winning 11 titles in 13 seasons. One difference between the Warriors and most of those other dynasties is that the other dynasties had the same top two players throughout their runs, with the exception of the West-Baylor Lakers adding Wilt Chamberlain after already losing five times in the NBA Finals. The Warriors won one title with Curry and Thompson leading the way, then they won two titles with Durant as clearly the best player, and now they have reached the NBA Finals for the first time since Durant departed.

Four Warriors are averaging double figures in scoring in the playoffs, but that number increased to six versus Dallas in the Western Conference Finals as Green and Looney joined Curry, Thompson, Poole, and Wiggins. The Warriors have a tremendous ensemble cast, superior to other teams that won the NBA Finals with ensemble casts (most notably Seattle in 1979 and Detroit in 2004). Curry is better than Dennis Johnson and Chauncey Billups (the Finals MVPs in 1979 and 2004 respectively), but he is not at the same level as Russell, West, Baylor, Johnson, Abdul-Jabbar, Jordan, Pippen, or Durant. Curry is the best player on a team that relies on strength in numbers, and on a very underrated defense that is--to put it mildly--not built around Curry.

However, I would be surprised if six Warriors averaged double figures against Boston's defense. The Celtics are not going to shut down the Warriors, but they are going to hold the Warriors to somewhere between 105-110 ppg instead of the 114.5 ppg that the Warriors have averaged so far in the 2022 playoffs.

Nothing that happens in the 2022 Finals changes or invalidates what Durant accomplished in the 2017 and 2018 NBA Finals. If Curry has an epic performance in the 2022 NBA Finals--30-plus ppg with efficient shooting numbers--that adds to his already impressive resume but it does not retroactively make him the Warriors' best player in 2017 and 2018, nor does it make him a better player than Durant.

The reality is that Curry's previous track record and Boston's current defense make it very unlikely that Curry will average 30 ppg in the Finals, let alone post efficient shooting numbers. If the Warriors win, they will win because their collective firepower overwhelms Boston's collective firepower.

The Warriors, by virtue of being completely healthy, are the best team that the Celtics have faced in the 2022 playoffs, but the Celtics are also by far the best team that the Warriors have faced in the 2022 playoffs. In their first three playoff series, the Warriors have yet to battle a team that can not only match up with them on the perimeter, but can also attack them in the paint.

I predict that the Celtics will win in six games.

Labels: Al Horford, Andrew Wiggins, Boston Celtics, Draymond Green, Golden State Warriors, Jaylen Brown, Jayson Tatum, Jordan Poole, Klay Thompson, Marcus Smart, Stephen Curry

posted by David Friedman @ 10:41 AM

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Warriors Take 2-0 Lead as Mavericks Squander Golden Opportunity

The Golden State Warriors overcame a 19 point deficit to post a 126-117 win over the Dallas Mavericks and take a 2-0 lead in the Western Conference Finals. Casual fans may associate the Warriors with three point shooting, but the Warriors' offensive attack has always had more balance than many people realize; the Warriors dominated the Mavericks in the paint in game one, and the Warriors won the paint battle even more convincingly in game two, outscoring the Mavericks 62-30 in the paint on blistering 31-48 (.646) shooting. TNT's Kenny Smith often talks about the importance of getting "two feet in the paint," and he points out that this can be done not only by posting up but also by driving. The Warriors attack the paint first (unless they have a wide open perimeter shot), and then they seek out the best shot after forcing the defense to deal with that paint attack. The Warriors have a lineup full of guards and forwards who can both initiate a play and finish a play, and this is vividly illustrated by the fact that in this game there were five different Warriors who tied for the team lead with five assists: Stephen Curry, Klay Thompson, Jordan Poole, Draymond Green, and Andrew Wiggins.

Curry scored a game-high 32 points on 11-21 field goal shooting, including 6-10 from three point range. He also had eight rebounds. Poole added 23 points on 7-10 field goal shooting, including 2-4 from three point range. Thompson had an efficient 15 points on 6-10 field goal shooting, though he made just 1-4 from beyond the arc. The story of the game, though, was Kevon Looney, who bludgeoned the Mavericks with 21 points and a game-high 12 rebounds. Looney shot 10-14 from the field, and he was a major reason that the Warriors again outshot the Mavericks from the field (.561 to .474) and dominated them on the boards (42-30).

Luka Doncic had another exceptional game: 42 points, eight assists, five rebounds, two turnovers, 12-23 field goal shooting in 38 minutes. He needs more help at both ends of the court. Jalen Brunson had a great game overall (31 points, seven rebounds, five assists, 11-19 field goal shooting), but he only had 11 points on 4-9 shooting in the second half as the Warriors took over. Reggie Bullock added 21 points on 6-11 field goal shooting, but he only had eight second half points. Six of the other seven Mavericks who played scored six points or less.

The Mavericks led 20-8 less than six minutes after the game began. When Doncic is rolling and the three point shots are falling the Mavericks look tremendous. However, teams that rely too heavily on three point shooting are subject to the reality that this is a high variance way to play. The Mavericks shot 15-27 (.556) from three point range in the first half, and they led 72-58 at halftime--and then they shot 6-18 (.333) from three point range in the second half as the Warriors outscored them 68-45. Excessive reliance on three point shooting is similar to excessive reliance on the "Run and Shoot" offense in football; in either sport, you will lose--no matter how big of an early lead you build--if you cannot control tempo, if you cannot make high percentage plays when the big plays are not there, and if you cannot provide enough defensive resistance.

As Dallas Coach Jason Kidd put it after the game, "When you go 2-13 (on third quarter three pointers) and you rely on the three, you can die by the three. And we died in the third quarter by shooting that many threes and coming up with only two." He added, "We play defense when we play offense, and we play no defense when we can't score. That's something that we have to get better at this time of year."

Even after losing the third quarter 25-13, the Mavericks did not trail until 18 seconds after the fourth quarter began, when Otto Porter Jr. hit a three pointer to put the Warriors up, 86-85. After never leading for most of the game, the Warriors never trailed again. On the one hand, it is evident that the Mavericks blew a golden opportunity (pardon the pun) to take homecourt advantage; on the other hand, a team that lives by the three pointer with no backup plan is, as Coach Kidd noted, going to die if those three pointers stop falling (and they almost always stop falling eventually). The Warriors are not a team that is going to sit by idly if their opponent hits a rough patch offensively.

The Mavericks trailed 1-0 in the first round before beating the Utah Jazz in six games, and then they trailed 2-0 in the second round before knocking out the number one seeded Phoenix Suns in seven games, so they have proven that they can come from behind to win a playoff series. That being said, prior to the 2022 playoffs the teams that won the first two games of a playoff series won the series 92.4% of the time, and that number rises slightly to 92.8% for teams that won the first two games at home. The cliche that teams that win the first two games "just took care of business" is not correct; teams that win the first two games are highly likely to advance to the next round. The onus is on the road team to get a split. Of course, the Mavericks will not and should not give up, but they must clean up their performance in the paint at both ends of the court: they need to get "two feet in the paint" more often on offense, and they need to provide much more resistance to the Warriors' paint touches. Game three is their last, best opportunity to make a stand: teams that fall behind 3-0 in the NBA playoffs have lost the series 100% of the time.

Labels: Dallas Mavericks, Golden State Warriors, Jalen Brunson, Jordan Poole, Kevon Looney, Klay Thompson, Luka Doncic, Stephen Curry

posted by David Friedman @ 8:45 AM

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Dallas Versus Golden State Preview

Western Conference Finals

#4 Dallas (52-30) vs. #3 Golden State (53-29) 

Season series: Dallas, 3-1

Golden State can win if…the Mavericks forget how to play defense and let the Warriors get comfortable behind the three point arc. The Warriors rank first in the 2022 playoffs in assists per game, third in three pointers made per game, and fourth in three point field goal percentage. Move the ball around and then shoot open three pointers is their main offensive strategy, supplemented by backcuts to the hoop if the opposing team overcommits to denying three point shots. 

Stephen Curry is leading the Warriors in playoff scoring (26.9 ppg) but he has posted a playoff career-low .359 three point field goal percentage. Klay Thompson's 2022 playoff numbers are right around his career norms, but he seems to have lost a step defensively after coming back from two serious leg injuries. First-time All-Star Andrew Wiggins is averaging 14.5 ppg in the playoffs after scoring 17.2 ppg during the regular season, so the Warriors' third option in the playoffs has been Jordan Poole (18.5 ppg). During the 2022 playoffs, Poole has had two 30 point games, and two games during which he scored eight points or less. He shot .600 or better from the field in five playoff games, and he shot .333 or worse in five playoff games. Feast or famine is an understatement regarding his play; he could be the first option one game, and the eighth option the next game.

Draymond Green is a fascinating player. He is praised for his basketball IQ, yet he exercises such little control over his emotions that he has a history of being ejected or suspended from games, including crucial playoff games. The Warriors rely on his defense and passing, but they are sometimes hindered by his reluctance to shoot. It is indisputable that some of the intangibles that he provides are valuable for a winning team, yet he would probably be close to worthless on a bad team: a team that has no defensive identity and that has players who are unwilling or unable to cut to the hoop at the right time would not benefit from Green's defense, screening, and passing; if he were a team's best player, that team would most likely be in the Draft Lottery--and yet, even though he is a limited player in some respects, the Warriors are clearly not as good when he is out of the lineup due to injury, foul trouble, or suspension. 

As Green heads down the backstretch of his career, he has become more vocal in both traditional media and social media; he knows that his playing career will probably last 15 years at the most, but that if he plays his cards right he can collect checks as a media member for 30 years or more. The things he says are often not particularly smart, but he is smart in terms of knowing how to position himself for the next phase in his life. Other players might be criticized for dabbling in so many different things while playing for a team with championship aspirations, but most media members already treat Green as if he were one of their own.

Dallas will win because…the Mavericks are a vastly improved defensive team that can pose matchup challenges for the Warriors, because the Mavericks have more depth than the Warriors--and because Luka Doncic has arguably been the best player in the 2022 playoffs.

First year Dallas Coach Jason Kidd--who was the point guard for Dallas' 2011 championship team--has done a very impressive job transforming the Mavericks from an indifferent defensive team to a strong defensive team. An important part of that process was getting Doncic to buy into the notion that he must at least give effort on defense. Opposing teams used to "hunt" Doncic by trying to get him switched onto the primary ballhandler, but that is happening less frequently now. Kidd demonstrated a genius level basketball IQ as a player, and he has done well in his previous coaching jobs, though media members seem to be reluctant to give him credit. 

There is a simple way to gauge Kidd's immediate impact: after the Mavericks won the 2011 title, they did not advance past the first round of the playoffs until this year. Rick Carlisle is widely praised as a great coach, but under his reign the Mavericks got bounced in the first round (or failed to make the playoffs at all) for over a decade.

Four Warriors are scoring in double figures in the playoffs, but six Mavericks are scoring in double figures in the playoffs. Doncic leads the way, of course, but Jalen Brunson (22.9 ppg), Spencer Dinwiddie (13.2 ppg), Dorian Finney-Smith (11.6 ppg), Reggie Bullock (10.2 ppg), and Max Kleber (10.1 ppg) are playing well enough that opposing teams cannot just focus on Doncic.

Of course, improved defense and greater depth would be of limited value without a superstar who creates matchup problems every game. Doncic ranks second in playoff scoring this season (31.5 ppg, just .2 ppg behind Giannis Antetokounmpo). Doncic also ranks sixth in playoff assists (6.6 apg), and eighth in playoff rebounding (10.1 rpg). Doncic's combination of elite level scoring and clutch shotmaking with high level rebounding and playmaking is reminiscent of a young LeBron James. Essentially, Doncic is LeBron James circa 2007, but with less jumping ability and fewer national TV ads. A great player's presence provides a sense of security for his teammates, and sows doubts in opponents. The Mavericks know that they have a chance in every game because Doncic is going to play at a high level--and their opponents know that Doncic can erupt for 30, 40, or even 50 points while also keeping his teammates involved.

The Mavericks do not have a second All-Star, but they have a roster full of very good players who can do multiple things well. That is another similarity between Luka Doncic's Mavericks and young LeBron James' Cavaliers; people who don't understand basketball often said that James lacked a good supporting cast, failing to recognize that there are players who are very good even if they are not "name brand" players, and also failing to realize that sometimes how a particular group meshes at both ends of the court matters more than the raw talent that a roster has. I understood the Cavaliers' potential early on, and I correctly picked them to go to the 2007 NBA Finals at a time when many "experts" did not think that the Cavaliers could beat the Detroit Pistons in a playoff series, but I must confess that when the 2022 playoffs began I was a bit skeptical of Doncic's supporting cast. I am not skeptical now.

Other things to consider: Some commentators act like the Golden State Warriors are the defending champions while the Dallas Mavericks are scruffy outsiders who crashed the playoff party. The back to back champion Warriors were led by Kevin Durant, and featured a fully healthy Klay Thompson. What the Warriors accomplished in 2017-18 has nothing to do with this series, because--until proven otherwise on the court--the best player in this series is Luka Doncic, who just destroyed the 64-18 Phoenix Suns in game seven in Phoenix.

One win separated Golden State and Dallas over an 82 game regular season, and the Mavericks won the head to head series, 3-1. Head to head regular season numbers can be skewed by injuries, load management, one team playing a back to back set, and so forth, but the larger point is that there is no objective reason to believe that the Warriors are in a different class right now than the Mavericks. 

The Warriors are perceived to be this unstoppable offensive juggernaut, but in the 2022 playoffs the Mavericks rank first in three pointers made per game and third in three point field goal percentage. The Mavericks will not be afraid to get into a three point shooting contest with the Warriors--and the Mavericks also have a superstar who can score in the paint off of drives or postups.

In the 2022 playoffs, the Warriors have beaten the Denver Nuggets sans Jamal Murray and Michael Porter Jr., and the Memphis Grizzlies, who did not have Ja Morant for the final three games of that six game series. The Warriors have not been seriously challenged yet, and they have not looked consistently great even against limited opposition--but now the Warriors will be facing a very good team at full strength.

In contrast, the Mavericks eliminated a good Utah team that was at full strength, and then the Mavericks knocked out the number one seeded Phoenix Suns, the reigning Western Conference champions. The current Mavericks are playoff tested. The Durant-led Warriors were playoff tested, but the 2022 Warriors are not that team.

Dallas will win in six games.

Labels: Dallas Mavericks, Draymond Green, Golden State Warriors, Jalen Brunson, Jordan Poole, Klay Thompson, Luka Doncic, Stephen Curry

posted by David Friedman @ 10:56 PM

6 comments

Warriors Overcome 13 Point Deficit to Beat Grizzlies as Morant Misses Layup at the Buzzer

In round one of a bout between former champions and young upstarts, score one for the former champions: the Golden State Warriors overcame a 13 point first half deficit to beat the Memphis Grizzlies 117-116 to gain home court advantage, but don't be surprised if this heavyweight fight goes the full distance. Jordan Poole led the Warriors with 31 points on 12-20 field goal shooting, including 5-10 from three point range. Stephen Curry shot poorly from the field (8-20) and he had a team-worst -9 plus/minus number, but he accumulated 24 points and the Warriors needed every single point. Andrew Wiggins had a solid game (17 points, eight rebounds). Klay Thompson had a wretched shooting night (15 points on 6-19 field goal shooting, 0-2 free throw shooting), but he hit what turned out to be the game-winning three pointer, and he also played a major role in the game-saving defensive play. 

Ja Morant scored a game-high 34 points on 14-31 field goal shooting, but his final miss is the one that will be remembered most because that shot was the difference between Memphis being up 1-0 or being down 0-1. In fairness to Morant, it must be noted that he scored 11 fourth quarter points to keep the Grizzlies alive, and he finished with a game-high 10 assists plus nine rebounds. Jaren Jackson Jr. had a playoff career-high 33 points, nailing hook shots in the paint while also connecting on 6-9 from three point range. De'Anthony Melton provided a spark with 14 points off of the bench and Brandon Clarke contributed 12 points plus nine rebounds, but the Grizzlies need more scoring/better shooting from Dillon Brooks (eight points, 3-13 field goal shooting) and Desmond Bane (nine points, 3-10 field goal shooting).

Many game stories focus on the fourth quarter--and this game had some key fourth quarter moments that deserve analysis--but the reality is that NBA games are often won or lost in the first half. Here, Memphis built a 42-29 lead early in the second quarter before a series of bad possessions at both ends of the court fueled a 10-0 Golden State run. The value of each possession in a playoff game should not be understated. The Grizzlies never enjoyed a double digit cushion the rest of the way, which set the stage for the Warriors being able to make just enough late game plays to win. 

Instead of mentioning that the Grizzlies frittered away their 13 point lead, most game stories that discuss the first half at all will focus on what happened at the 1:18 mark of the second quarter: Clarke drove to the hoop, Draymond Green smacked him in the face, pulled him down by his jersey, and then reached out at the last second to brace Clarke's fall after fouling him twice on the same play. The game officials reviewed the play, and assessed a flagrant foul penalty 2 against Green, which meant that Green was automatically ejected. Green then ran around the court like a fool before eventually going to the locker room. I have never understood why players celebrate being ejected. A flagrant foul penalty 2 is distinguished by contact that is deemed "unnecessary and excessive," while a flagrant foul penalty 1 is assessed for contact that is determined to be unnecessary but not excessive. These are subjective determinations to some extent, but the officials look at the windup, impact, and follow through of a foul to determine if the foul is a common foul, a flagrant foul penalty 1, or a flagrant foul penalty 2. Contact above the neck area is deemed to be more serious--and more likely to be classified as a flagrant foul-- than contact below the neck (except for contact to the groin, of course). Green hit Clarke hard in the face, so there was clearly windup, impact, and follow through above the neck area. Green then yanked Clarke out of the air. The notion that Green should not get a flagrant foul penalty 2 because he did not just let Clarke hit the court with full force after fouling him twice makes no sense. Green had already done enough to earn an ejection before Clarke landed; if Green had not braced Clarke's fall, Green may have been looking at a suspension in addition to an ejection. If Green thinks that he is being unfairly targeted by the officials, then there is a simple solution for him: don't hit opponents in the face or groin. I guarantee that if he stops doing those two things he will stop being assessed flagrant fouls and ejections.

The Grizzlies led 54-53 before Green was ejected. They pushed that margin to six, 61-55, by halftime, but the Warriors actually did better in the second half with a big lineup than they did in the first half with a smaller lineup featuring Green at center. The Grizzlies usually win the rebounding battle, but the Warriors outrebounded them, 51-47. Six Warriors had more rebounds than Green, who finished with just four. An even more significant issue for the Grizzlies than not winning the rebounding battle is that the Grizzlies gave up several easy scoring opportunities to cutters. The Warriors deserve credit for being a team that moves well without the ball, but it was also apparent that the Grizzlies simply blew many defensive assignments. The rebounding and defensive issues also contributed to the Grizzlies playing at a slower than desirable pace; the Grizzlies are at their best when they get stops, control the boards, and then attack in transition before the opposing defense is set. Rebounding, defensive assignment discipline, and playing at a faster pace are three areas that the Grizzlies should be able to improve for game two and the rest of the series.

After the Grizzlies blew their double digit lead and after the Warriors went with a bigger second half lineup sans Green, the game was close the rest of the way. Thompson's three pointer with just under 37 seconds remaining put the Warriors up, 117-116. The Grizzlies should have pushed the ball up the court not only to try to score in transition but also to go for a two for one shot opportunity. Instead, the Grizzlies burned almost all 24 seconds off of the shot clock before Curry got a piece of Morant's layup attempt. The Grizzlies wasted an additional eight seconds before committing a foul, and then they lost nearly five more seconds before fouling Thompson, who is an excellent free throw shooter. Thompson missed both free throws, but after the second miss went out of bounds the officials were not able to determine who touched the ball last. Memphis controlled the ensuing jump ball, and called a timeout. The Grizzlies executed a wonderful inbounds play that resulted in Morant catching the ball on the move to the hoop. Morant made it all the way to the rim, but Thompson's contested hand influenced Morant to loft the shot too high, and it missed the mark as time expired. Morant stood in shocked disbelief by the basket stanchion as the Warriors celebrated.

The significance of not only winning game one but also stealing home court advantage should not be understated; the Grizzlies face an uphill battle now. However, the Grizzlies demonstrated during game one that there are matchup advantages that they can exploit throughout this series, and they also made some unforced errors that they are capable of correcting. Based on those matchup advantages, I predicted that Memphis would win this series in seven games. I expect Memphis to win game two, split the games at Golden State to reclaim home court advantage, and then take games five and seven at home in what may turn out to be the best and most competitive playoff series in 2022.

Labels: Draymond Green, Golden State Warriors, Ja Morant, Jaren Jackson Jr., Jordan Poole, Klay Thompson, Memphis Grizzlies, Stephen Curry

posted by David Friedman @ 2:08 AM

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