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Thursday, April 27, 2023

Led by Jimmy Butler, Miami Heat Stun Top Seeded Milwaukee Bucks

The Milwaukee Bucks started the playoffs on the wrong foot after Giannis Antetokounmpo injured his back in the first quarter of game one of their playoff series versus the Miami Heat, and they never regained their balance. The Heat defeated the Bucks 128-126 in overtime last night to win the series, 4-1.

In game four, Butler destroyed the Bucks with a Heat playoff single game record 56 points as Miami won, 119-114, and he followed that up with a sensational game five performance: game-high 42 points, eight rebounds, and four assists;  Gabe Vincent added 22 points, and Bam Adebayo had a triple double (20 points, 10 rebounds, 10 assists). Antetokounmpo put up monster numbers (38 points, game-high 20 rebounds), but he committed a game-high seven turnovers and he shot just 10-23 from the free throw line. Khris Middleton added 33 points, six rebounds, and six assists. Jrue Holiday had a quiet game (16 points on 4-11 field goal shooting, nine rebounds, six assists), and he missed a free throw that could have put Milwaukee up by three points with 2.1 seconds remaining in regulation. Coach Mike Budenholzer heads into the offseason with his pockets stuffed with the timeouts that he failed to use at the end of regulation and the end of overtime.

The Bucks squandered several opportunities to win game five. They led 102-86 at the start of the fourth quarter, but with their season on the line they shot just 3-19 from the field (.158) in the final 12 minutes of regulation. Antetokounmpo shot 1-9 from the field and 2-5 from the free throw line in the fourth quarter. The Bucks committed five fourth quarter turnovers, including two by Antetokounmpo. The numbers outline the general scope of the Bucks' collapse, but the Bucks also made several questionable plays down the stretch. Leading 111-103 with 3:18 remaining in regulation, the Bucks missed long three pointers on two of their next four possessions. Antetokounmpo scored on a drive but failed to complete the three point play by missing the free throw. The Bucks' normally stout defense proved powerless to stop Butler.

The first round was a nightmare for the top seeded Bucks. The Heat finished seventh in the Eastern Conference during the regular season, but slipped to the eighth seed after losing a Play-In Tournament game to the Atlanta Hawks. So, after battling all season to finish first the Bucks were "rewarded" with playing a Heat team that not only finished three games ahead of the Hawks but that also has recent NBA Finals experience. It is more than a bit odd that the Heat outperformed the Hawks for 82 games but, in essence, lost a "tiebreaker" game for playoff positioning. In theory, the Play-In Tournament is supposed to make teams care more about the regular season; in practice, teams are still tanking, and playoff positioning is jumbled for no rational reason.

Question: If load management is necessary to preserve player health, why did the NBA add a Play-In Tournament to the schedule, and why is the league working on creating a midseason tournament?

Answer: The NBA cares about profits. More games means more profits, so the league does not care about star players sitting out during the regular season, teams tanking, and playoff positioning being scrambled.

The Heat are the first team to win a series after reaching the playoffs via the Play-In Tournament. They deserve full credit for peaking at the right time, and that goes double for Butler, who proved to be an acquired taste for his previous teams before fitting in perfectly in Miami. Butler is a rare player whose career playoff averages (20.9 ppg, 6.1 rpg, 4.4 apg) exceed his career regular season averages (18.2 ppg, 5.3 rpg, 4.2 apg); that could be interpreted to mean that he elevates his game in the postseason, or that he sometimes coasts during the regular season. The regular season matters not only in terms of playoff seeding, but also in terms of building the individual and collective habits that are necessary for postseason success. 

"Playoff Jimmy" may be a real thing individually, but it should be noted that collectively Butler's teams have a 9-10 record in playoff series. Here are the playoff series records of the best players on recent championship teams, plus selected retired players from my basketball Pantheon (listed in order of total playoff series wins):

LeBron James: 39-11

Magic Johnson: 33-8

Kobe Bryant: 33-10

Michael Jordan: 30-7

Julius Erving: 24-13

Larry Bird: 23-9

Kevin Durant: 22-9

Stephen Curry: 22-4

Kawhi Leonard: 19-7

Giannis Antetokounmpo: 8-7 

A losing playoff record with no championships and just one NBA Finals appearance is far from legendary level performance, but Butler is a better all-around player than many of the players who the NBA office and its media partners hype up, including but not limited to James Harden, Damian Lillard, and Trae Young. Butler deserves credit for spearheading a historic upset of a number one seeded team by an eighth seeded team that qualified for the playoffs via the Play-In Tournament, but it would be premature to reevaluate the entire arc of Butler's career based on one playoff series. For example, Hakeem Olajuwon elevated his historical status not based on one playoff series but based on leading the Houston Rockets to back to back championships.

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posted by David Friedman @ 9:26 PM

1 comments

1 Comments:

At Friday, April 28, 2023 4:27:00 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Giannis and the Bucks will largely get absolved from a lot of criticism since they won the title in 2021(which they had a rather easy path, and would've been likely been ousted in the 2nd round that year if Brooklyn didn't have key injuries to their 2nd/3rd best players), though I don't buy that. Over the past 5 years, they've underachieved each season except 2021. They've been #1 seeds 3x in that span, only winning 3 series total, and failing to reach the Finals each time, including just 1 ECF. Giannis is undoubtedly a great player and his cast has been ridiculously good for awhile now, but something is obviously missing overall. He also gets injured too much. I don't care what Butler did in this series, this a major disappointment and a major failure for the Bucks. They not only lost, but only won one game. The Heat barely even made the playoffs as an 8th seed, and lost key players during this series. Yes, Giannis got hurt too, but even when he played, it didn't much help.

Butler's had some great playoff performances, but overall his team success has been subpar. Not sure what to make him. The Knicks are about as easy of a 2nd round opp as you'll get. But, the Heat are, too.

Yes, not a great playoff team record for Giannis. Only 4-7 outside of this title year.

 

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