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Monday, April 24, 2023

Warriors Survive Late Blunders to Beat Kings, Tie Series at 2-2

The Golden State Warriors beat the Sacramento Kings 126-125 to tie their first round playoff series at 2-2 and set up a climactic game five at Sacramento. Game five winners in a 2-2 NBA playoff series win the series 81.9% of the time. 

Stephen Curry led the Warriors with 32 points, Klay Thompson added 26 points, and Jordan Poole--starting in place of Draymond Green--scored 22 points. The Warriors won game three without the suspended Green, and Green voluntarily ceded his starting role--at least for one game--to Poole, who performed well as a starter during Green's absence. Green scored 12 points on abysmal 3-14 field goal shooting, but he contributed to the win with his strong defense plus 10 rebounds and a team-high seven assists. 

It was interesting to see Curry and Green celebrate this win on the court as if they had just won an NBA title. Curry and Green have each won four NBA championships, so a first round home win should not be a big deal to them.

De'Aaron Fox scored a game-high 38 points, led the Kings with nine rebounds, and dished for five assists. Keegan Murray added 23 points and seven rebounds, Malik Monk scored 16 points but shot just 5-14 from the field, and Domantas Sabonis contributed 14 points, seven rebounds, and a game-high eight assists.

In the past week, the Kings have received formal recognition for their excellent season. Fox won the Jerry West NBA Clutch Player of the Year Award. Fox is an explosive scorer who also rebounds and passes well, and he shows all of the signs of being a superstar in the making. After averaging 25.0 ppg, 6.1 apg, and 4.2 rpg during the regular season, he is averaging 31.5 ppg, 7.0 apg, and 6.0 rpg in the playoffs.

Also, Mike Brown won his second Red Auerbach Coach of the Year Award. Brown, who previously won the award in 2009 while coaching the Cleveland Cavaliers, received all 100 media votes this time, becoming the first unanimous winner. Brown is an outstanding coach who has previously been unfairly criticized by media members who do not understand much about NBA coaching. It is surprising but refreshing that all of the media voters selected Brown for this much-deserved honor.

This series is often portrayed as a contrast between an inexperienced squad (the Kings) and an experienced squad (the Warriors)--but in game four the Warriors were fortunate to survive late game blunders that one might not expect to see from the reigning NBA champions. In a back and forth game featuring 19 lead changes during which the Kings led by as many as nine points and the Warriors led by as many as 10 points, the outcome hung in the balance when Curry called a timeout with 42.4 seconds remaining in regulation and the Warriors leading, 126-121. The Warriors had just expended their last timeout on a failed coach's challenge, so Curry's mistake resulted in the Kings receiving a free throw attempt and possession of the ball. Monk drained the free throw, and then Fox hit a three pointer after the Kings rebounded Harrison Barnes' missed three pointer. Then, with a chance to run down the clock and force the Kings to foul, Curry missed a runner in the lane. The Kings rebounded the miss, called timeout with 10.5 seconds left, and now had a great opportunity to win the game. During the ensuing possession, the Warriors trapped Fox, content to let any of his teammates take the clutch shot. Barnes missed a three pointer as time expired.

It is understandable that the outcome of each game shapes the short-term narrative, but anyone watching this series without knowing the relative experience levels of both teams would have trouble discerning which team is comprised of supposedly poised veterans and which team is comprised of supposedly frazzled young players. Both teams play at a fast pace and, consequently, make some mistakes, but if Barnes had made the last shot in game four then the narrative would focus on how Curry and the Warriors blew a five point lead in the final minute; the fact that the Warriors narrowly survived does not magically transform them into a very poised team compared to the Kings, who in fact showed much poise to stay in contention until the final buzzer sounded.

Over the course of the entire season, the Kings were the more composed, more poised, and more consistent team. That is why the Kings enjoy homecourt advantage in this series. The Kings won the first two games of this series at home, and they do not have to win a road game to advance; the Warriors, who went 11-30 on the road during the regular season, must win at least one road game to reach the second round.

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posted by David Friedman @ 1:22 PM

2 comments

2 Comments:

At Monday, April 24, 2023 6:52:00 PM, Anonymous Eric said...

David,

I agree 100% with your observation on how these defending champs celebrated that escape victory, acting as if they had won the series or the like.

What a wild last minute in that 4th quarter. It's been reported that Curry was not aware of the lost timeout due to the failed coach's challenge. Regardless, that is simply unacceptable of a player especially of Curry's stature to make such a dubious mistake. The narratives and talking points would have definitely focused on how Steph choked if Fox or Barnes made a game-winning, series-altering play in that final possession.

Now it's been reported that Fox has a fracture in his finger of his shooting hand that was sustained in Game 4. Hopefully, his effectiveness won't be too bothered by it but it stinks for us fans to see yet another player succumb to another injury. This series should not have been tied 2-2. It's also really telling that Green has double-downed when posed with questions regarding his suspension. Him saying he is a winner and that he is who he is is just deplorable as a professional athlete, who has a large enough platform for younger audiences to be swayed from his actions.

While Green made solid plays on the defensive end (Sabonis' overall play has been subpar so far this series), Green's role on offense in my opinion is overrated. Supposed experts and casual fans are already saying it's over for the Kings, claiming the Warriors have a "series momentum", which is just nonsense.

Despite the gaffe, Curry's shot-making this game was instrumental to why the Dubs barely managed to squeeze by in this win.

 
At Monday, April 24, 2023 7:42:00 PM, Blogger David Friedman said...

Eric:

Thank you!

Green is a player who is dependent on having a great team around him. He is a valuable contributor to a great team, but he is not the type of player who can carry a team. He has a very arrogant demeanor for someone who would have zero championships and very few accolades had he not been blessed with the opportunity to play with Curry, Durant, and Thompson.

Both teams played well enough to win, but only one team can win. I am not surprised that the series is tied 2-2, and if Fox is able to play reasonably effectively in game five then I expect the Kings to win that game.

 

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