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Sunday, September 10, 2023

Oh, Canada! Team USA Loses FIBA World Cup Bronze Medal Game to Canada in Overtime, 127-118

"We can't get no stops, so I don't know what we could have done"--Anthony Edwards, explaining Team USA's loss to Canada in the FIBA World Cup 

Anthony Edwards' grammar is as fractured as Team USA's perimeter defense, but he provided a perfect one sentence summary of why Team USA failed to win a medal in the 2023 FIBA World Cup. Team USA lost for the third time in their last four FIBA World Cup games, dropping a 127-118 overtime decision to Canada in the bronze medal game. Canada shot 43-84 (.512) from the field, including 17-37 (.459) from three point range. Team USA also shot well--42-81 (.519) from the field, including 10-27 (.370) from three point range--and even outrebounded Canada 43-40, but the key for Team USA to be successful in FIBA events is defense in general and perimeter defense in particular. Team USA failed spectacularly on defense.

Dillon Brooks shredded Team USA with a game-high 39 points on 12-18 field goal shooting, including 7-8 from three point range. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander added 31 points. Anthony Edwards led Team USA with 24 points, but it is telling that he had a plus/minus number of -20. Austin Reaves added 23 points, but he had a plus/minus number of -12. Team USA's best scorers gave up points even faster than they could score them.

Canada blitzed Team USA 35-24 in the first quarter, and led 94-84 with 8:26 remaining in the fourth quarter. Team USA went on a 12-0 run to take a 96-94 lead at the 6:23 mark, but Team USA never led by more than two points the rest of the way, and needed a series of unlikely events just to force overtime: Canada led 111-107 with four seconds remaining when Mikal Bridges made a free throw, intentionally missed the second free throw, rebounded his miss, and then made a three pointer. Team USA's excitement was short-lived, as Canada outscored Team USA 16-7 in the five minute overtime. 

It is puzzling that so many people make excuses for Team USA's failures by mentioning that this was Team USA's "B Team" and by noting that Team USA lacked size. Team USA featured the 2023 Defensive Player of the Year (Jaren Jackson Jr.), the 2023 Rookie of the Year (Paolo Banchero), three 2023 NBA All-Stars (Anthony Edwards, Tyrese Halliburton, and Jaren Jackson Jr.) plus 2020 All-Star Brandon Ingram and rising star Jalen Brunson. Team USA's "B Team" has more individual talent than any other FIBA World Cup team.

The three teams that beat Team USA in the 2023 FIBA World Cup--Lithuania, Germany, and Canada--each had rosters filled with players who would not even be considered for Team USA's roster if they were American citizens. Germany, which has just four NBA players on its roster (Dennis Schroder, Franz Wagner, Mo Wagner, and Daniel Theis), beat Serbia 83-77 to win the FIBA World Cup.

In the Team USA-Canada game, Banchero, Ingram, and Jackson Jr. each received DNP--CDs (Did Not Play--Coach's Decision). Throughout the tournament, Team USA Coach Steve Kerr stubbornly insisted on playing small lineups, so even if more big men had been included on Team USA's roster it is unlikely that Kerr would have used them or used them effectively. Small-ball is not a great strategy in general because size matters in basketball, and small-ball can only work if the team is committed to playing excellent pressure defense resulting in turnovers and contested shots. Small-ball with bad perimeter defense leads to a 5-3 2023 FIBA World Cup record versus teams that have markedly inferior individual talent but more than compensate for that with superior execution of basketball fundamentals.

It must be emphasized that during the 2023 FIBA World Cup other teams also did not have their "A Team." Reigning NBA Finals MVP/two-time NBA regular season MVP Nikola Jokic did not play for Serbia--which reached the gold medal game without him--and 2021 NBA Finals MVP/two-time NBA regular season Giannis Antetokounmpo did not play for Greece. Each of the past five regular season MVPs were born outside of the United States, so it is fair to say that the United States has neither the world's best individual player nor the world's best team. 

The NBA has legislated defense out of the game, and the results of that were on display during the FIBA World Cup when Team USA played horrific defense. The NBA game has been damaged by rules changes, style of play changes, and the ascent of "advanced basketball statistics" with its promotion of three pointers and dunks over all other shots plus its embrace of tanking and load management. Style is valued over substance, which leads to people spouting nonsense such as the assertion that James Harden is a better offensive player than Michael Jordan, and that one-dimensional scorers such as Carmelo Anthony, James Harden, and Damian Lillard deserve to be on the NBA's 75th Anniversary Team over players such as Chris Bosh, Adrian Dantley, Alex English, Artis Gilmore, Dwight Howard, Bernard King, and Tracy McGrady. No, Kyrie Irving is not the most skilled basketball player in the NBA now, let alone the most skilled basketball player of all-time--but the fact that so many people praise Irving so much betrays a lack of understanding of the difference between style and substance. Basketball is a team game, and basketball skill is properly measured by how effectively a player does things that maximize his team's chance to win. A limited definition of athleticism as it relates to basketball greatness and a lack of understanding of how to evaluate basketball skill contaminates basketball commentary. 

Kobe Bryant was the most valuable player for the 2008 Redeem Team not only because of his individual athletic ability and basketball skills but because of the way that he utilized his athletic ability and basketball skills to help his team win. The main problem with Team USA now--and with the modern NBA game in general--is that players focus more on individual offensive skills than on the team game.

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posted by David Friedman @ 1:38 PM

6 comments

6 Comments:

At Sunday, September 10, 2023 8:04:00 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

>Team USA featured the 2023 Defensive Player of the Year (Jaren Jackson Jr.), the 2023 Rookie of the Year (Paolo Banchero), three 2023 NBA All-Stars (Anthony Edwards, Tyrese Halliburton, and Jaren Jackson Jr.) plus 2020 All-Star Brandon Ingram and rising star Jalen Brunson. Team USA's "B Team" has more individual talent than any other FIBA World Cup team.

That is true, but if you look around the league, the trend is clearly downwards.

None of these players have transcendent combinations of size, athleticism, skills and mentality that will elevate them to all-time great status. Some may prove that current assessment wrong in the future, but right now that is the reality.

More generally, how many of the US players not on the wrong side of 30, including those who couldn't be bothered to play in the WC, project to be true all-time greats, and how many don't have at least one huge flaw -- lack of size (Donovan Mitchell, Trae Young, Ja Morant, De'Aaron Fox, Darius Garland, Antony Edwards is undersized too, etc.), poor defense (pretty much all of the undersized guards), lack of dedication (Zion), being a knucklehead (Ja Morant), etc.?

Maybe Tatum, and that's it.

The top players under 30 are all from outside the US -- Jokic, Giannis, Luka Doncic, Embiid, SGA (who was the best guard at the FIBA WC too -- because he is 6-6, not 6-3 and under, and does seem to have the right mentality). And the latest draft did nothing to change the trend.

Hindsight often distorts perceptions, but as far as I recall in 2006 the prospects for the future sure looked a lot better.

As you said, the NBA has destroyed the game by outlawing defense, to that we can add AAU selecting for flashy guards who can't play system ball while hurting the development of bigs (which it is now customary to complain about), but also just the sheer amount of money in the game now -- once you get that guaranteed $300M contract, what is the incentive to work on your game or compete hard any further? And how likely is it to get the best players to dedicate half of their summers to FIBA tournaments in the future in such conditions? They can't be bothered to play hard (or play at all) in the NBA itself...

 
At Monday, September 11, 2023 1:47:00 AM, Blogger David Friedman said...

Anonymous:

I agree with you that there is no evidence that any member of Team USA will become a transcendent all-time great player. Would you suggest that Germany, Canada, or Lithuania have any players on their current rosters who will become transcendent all-time great players? Team USA's 2023 FIBA World Cup team is not the most talented team we are capable of sending now and it is certainly not more talented than the best Team USA squads of all-time but it is more talented than any other team in the 2023 FIBA World Cup. There is no excuse for that roster to return home without even winning a bronze medal. I am fully aware of--and have written at length about--the differences between the FIBA game and the NBA game, and I am also aware of the challenges that Team USA always faces in terms of lack of continuity compared to most of the other contenders. Even after taking all of those factors into account, there is still no excuse for Team USA finishing fourth. Team USA did not lose to a legendary FIBA squad like Ginobili's best Argentina teams, or Gasol's great Spanish teams.

That being said, I agree with you about the general downward trend of American basketball, and that is one of the main points of my article. Many of the aspects of the modern NBA game that I have repeatedly criticized--lack of defense, overemphasis on offense/shooting vis a vis defense, the twin scourges of tanking and load management (which have both dimmed competitive spirit), overvaluing "advance basketball statistics" while neglecting old-fashioned (but valuable) skill set based scouting--reared their ugly heads for Team USA during the FIBA World Cup. I would argue that in the current climate even a Team USA squad stacked with the absolute top American players could still fail to win gold unless the players fully commit to playing hard defensively.

 
At Monday, September 11, 2023 4:24:00 PM, Blogger Jordan said...

Appreciate your insight as always David.

Want to add to your comment about Kobe. In 2008 with the Redeem Team, Kobe made it a point to emphasize that he was focused on defense. Coach K actually had to encourage Bryant to shoot the ball more. Bryant led the way with his physical play and gritty defensive effort -- not just in the games (memorable moment when he basically hockey-checked Pau Gasol in game 1 against Spain), but more importantly in practice. His tenacity and fire really stoked the rest of the team. As you've noted in past articles, Lebron, Wade, Bosh, Melo -- that whole 2008 team went on to have career years after their Olympic run.

In contrast, the 2023 reigning defensive player of the year, JJJ, in all of his 23 years and 250 games of wisdom, had the audacity to belittle Kerr's tips on improving his defense.

This team had plenty of offensive talent -- and could have won with their firepower (though, a lack of timely scoring and getting behind early ultimately sunk them). But outside of JJJ and Hart, the team had zero elite defenders. Furthermore, Hart is solid, but not elite. And JJJ proved that he can only play one style of defense. On the Grizzlies, he doesn't have to rebound, box out, or check the post (Adams does all of that for him). He plays free safety, and did so extremely well, but he's not a defensive anchor and honestly should not have won the award, regardless of what advanced stats say.

 
At Monday, September 11, 2023 9:56:00 PM, Blogger David Friedman said...

Jordan:

Thank you!

Many years ago, I spoke with Steve Kerr, who relayed to me a story that Mike D'Antoni had told him about Kobe's defensive focus with the Redeem Team: http://20secondtimeout.blogspot.com/2007/12/thats-amare-stoudemire-scores-42-suns.html

I think that Jackson Jr. "could" be an effective FIBA big man, but the larger problem (no pun intended) with this version of Team USA was the awful perimeter defense. Team USA broke down so completely on the perimeter that I am not sure that prime Bill Russell could have saved them (though perhaps he would not have tolerated such breakdowns by his teammates).

Offense has rarely been a problem for Team USA in FIBA events and it certainly was not a problem in the 2023 FIBA World Cup. The problem is that Team USA made Dillon Brooks, Dennis Schroder, and some players that NBA fans have never heard of (and probably will never hear of again) look like NBA All-Stars.

 
At Wednesday, September 13, 2023 8:19:00 AM, Anonymous TR said...

The role of officiating is critical, too. American players are coddled by superstar calls from referees who are focused on helping "marketable" players ascend to the top. When there's no superstar calls and the games are officiated according to the rulebook, rather than the betting book, the U.S. looks more on-par with the rest of the world than it does otherwise.

 
At Wednesday, September 13, 2023 8:20:00 PM, Blogger David Friedman said...

TR:

That is a good point, and one that I have made before in other contexts, namely that many of the NBA players who are now marketed as all-time greats have inflated numbers because of how many favorable calls that they receive--not just fouls, but also the leniency regarding traveling, carrying the ball, and more.

 

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