20 Second Timeout

Team USA's FIBA World Cup Loss to Lithuania is Deja Vu All Over Again

Team USA's 110-104 loss to Lithuania yesterday in the final game of pool play in the 2023 FIBA World Cup very much resembled other upset losses that Team USA has suffered in previous FIBA events. Lithuania shot 14-25 (.560) from three point range and 24-47 (.511) from inside the arc while dominating Team USA 43-27 on the boards. It did not matter that Team USA shot a solid .379 (11-29) from three point range or a blistering .636 (28-44) from inside the arc, because Lithuania's lethal combination of deadly three point shooting and paint domination were too much to overcome. Lithuania led by as many as 21 points (33-12, 52-31, and 54-33) in the first half before Team USA finally played some second half defense to mount a comeback. 

NBA fans are probably only familiar with one name from Lithuania's roster: Jonas Valanciunas has averaged a double double in each of the past four seasons--two with Memphis followed by two with New Orleans--but he has never been selected as an All-Star or an All-NBA Team member. Valanciunas had a solid performance versus Team USA (12 points, seven rebounds), but he was just one of seven double figure scorers for a balanced Lithuanian attack that both fired away from the perimeter and attacked the hoop aggressively. Anthony Edwards led Team USA with a game-high 35 points on 14-26 field goal shooting and he had a +4 plus/minus number, but only three of his teammates scored at least 10 points. Eight of the 12 Team USA players had negative plus/minus numbers, so the squad lost ground almost no matter what combination Coach Steve Kerr put on the court.

In general, FIBA basketball is lightly covered and poorly understood in America. The FIBA World Cup (known as the FIBA World Championship until 2010) has been held since 1950 at intervals of between three to five years. Team USA won the event in 1954, 1986, 1994, 2010, and 2014. Team USA did not use NBA players in this event until 1994, which explains why Team USA won only twice in the first 11 FIBA World Championships held between 1950 and 1990; other countries regularly sent their professional players, who were generally bigger/stronger and always more experienced than American college players. Team USA did not use NBA players in 1998 because of the NBA lockout, resulting in a bronze medal finish. In 2002, Team USA's NBA players suffered a humiliating sixth place finish, and in 2006 Team USA's NBA players settled for the bronze medal after losing to Greece in the semifinals. In 2010, Kevin Durant led Team USA to the gold medal, while Kyrie Irving won the FIBA World Cup MVP as Team USA took the gold medal again in 2014. Team USA's NBA players finished seventh in 2019, the worst result ever for an American team in any major FIBA event.

Reporters covering Team USA regurgitate the same flawed commentary either out of laziness or because they just don't understand what they are watching. We are told that Team USA needs bigger players to battle on the boards, and that Team USA needs more shooters. In a September 4, 2007 article titled "The Real Story Behind Team USA's Losses in Previous FIBA Events," I provided analysis about the FIBA game that is still relevant and timely today: 

In my game recaps from the FIBA Americas tournament, I frequently mentioned that, contrary to popular belief, the biggest problem that Team USA has had in recent FIBA events has come at the defensive end of the court. That is why I did a post before the tournament titled "Team USA Needs Bruce Bowen More than it Needs Michael Redd." The way things turned out this time around, Team USA did not need either player, going 10-0 without Bowen and with Redd getting the vast majority of his minutes and points after Team USA had built commanding leads. The fact that Team USA won without Redd making a meaningful contribution when the games were close essentially proves my point but, looking forward, it is important to understand the challenge that Team USA is likely to face in the 2008 Olympics. The FIBA Americas tournament did not feature the top FIBA teams; Argentina, the strongest squad that participated other than Team USA, essentially sent its "B" team and did not have the services of Manu Ginobili, Andres Nocioni, Fabricio Oberto and Walter Herrmann. When Team USA faces a fully loaded Argentina team plus the top teams from Europe it will be necessary to play defense with intensity and intelligence in order to win the gold medal. Fortunately, Team USA made great strides in that department in the FIBA Americas tournament, spearheaded by the backcourt defensive wizardry of Kobe Bryant and Jason Kidd. Shutting down opponents' three point shooting while also denying dribble penetration leads to rebounds and steals that get converted into open court scoring opportunities. As Carmelo Anthony, LeBron James and Kobe Bryant just proved with their exceptional shooting and their tremendous per minute scoring rates in the FIBA Americas tournament, when Team USA plays this way the addition of designated outside shooters to the roster is a luxury, not a necessity...

It is mystifying that anyone could believe that Team USA could have turned any of these recent FIBA losses into wins simply by adding three point shooting specialists to the roster; those kind of players would have done nothing to improve the team's shoddy defense and the lack of transition scoring opportunities would have meant that they would not have gotten many great open looks at the hoop. Three point specialists do not generally create their own shots and the half court offense that Team USA was running would hardly have provided them the time and space that they need to shoot accurately.

It is true that in general size matters in the NBA, but the reality is that the best American NBA players at the moment are not big players, and a properly constructed/well-coached Team USA can win FIBA events despite being undersized; further, Team USA's three point shooting defense is much more important that Team USA's own three point shooting. Team USA's current roster has four players listed as 6-10 or taller: Jaren Jackson Jr., Paolo Banchero, Bobby Portis Jr.,and Walker Kessler. Jackson leads that quartet in mpg (17.2) but ranks just sixth on the team in minutes, and he is averaging only 2.8 rpg. Banchero is averaging 3.4 rpg in 15.9 mpg, while Portis is the best rebounder of the bunch at 4.0 rpg (third on the team) in 11.6 mpg. Kessler is not part of the rotation, averaging 6.1 mpg.

What matters most for Team USA in FIBA play is creating tremendous defensive pressure against opposing guards; this limits both open three point shots and the ability to easily feed post players in prime scoring position, while also creating turnovers and rebounding opportunities that can be turned into transition offense.

Team USA lost to France in the first game of the 2020 Olympics (played in 2021) because of defensive breakdowns, not because of lack of size or lack of three point shooting. Team USA corrected those defensive breakdowns, and defeated France in the gold medal game. Team USA shot just 9-32 (.281) from three point range in the gold medal game, but Team USA held France to 10-31 (.323) three point shooting without conceding ground in the paint, and that has consistently been the recipe for success in FIBA play: shut down the three point shooters without compromising the interior defense. If Team USA makes three pointers that is a nice bonus, but it is not necessary for victory; in contrast to Team USA--which can use athleticism to create transition scoring opportunities--most FIBA teams rely on their three point shooting, and if that weapon is neutralized then Team USA has a big advantage.

Despite the loss to Lithuania, Team USA will advance out of pool play to the quarterfinals, and has already qualified for the 2024 Olympics. However, Team USA must improve defensively to win the 2023 FIBA World Cup and to win Olympic gold in 2024.

Labels: Anthony Edwards, FIBA World Cup, Jonas Valanciunas, Lithuania, Steve Kerr, Team USA

posted by David Friedman @ 10:20 PM

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