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Monday, September 04, 2023

Team USA's FIBA World Cup Loss to Lithuania is Deja Vu All Over Again

Team USA's 110-104 loss to Lithuania yesterday in the final game of pool play in the 2023 FIBA World Cup very much resembled other upset losses that Team USA has suffered in previous FIBA events. Lithuania shot 14-25 (.560) from three point range and 24-47 (.511) from inside the arc while dominating Team USA 43-27 on the boards. It did not matter that Team USA shot a solid .379 (11-29) from three point range or a blistering .636 (28-44) from inside the arc, because Lithuania's lethal combination of deadly three point shooting and paint domination were too much to overcome. Lithuania led by as many as 21 points (33-12, 52-31, and 54-33) in the first half before Team USA finally played some second half defense to mount a comeback. 

NBA fans are probably only familiar with one name from Lithuania's roster: Jonas Valanciunas has averaged a double double in each of the past four seasons--two with Memphis followed by two with New Orleans--but he has never been selected as an All-Star or an All-NBA Team member. Valanciunas had a solid performance versus Team USA (12 points, seven rebounds), but he was just one of seven double figure scorers for a balanced Lithuanian attack that both fired away from the perimeter and attacked the hoop aggressively. Anthony Edwards led Team USA with a game-high 35 points on 14-26 field goal shooting and he had a +4 plus/minus number, but only three of his teammates scored at least 10 points. Eight of the 12 Team USA players had negative plus/minus numbers, so the squad lost ground almost no matter what combination Coach Steve Kerr put on the court.

In general, FIBA basketball is lightly covered and poorly understood in America. The FIBA World Cup (known as the FIBA World Championship until 2010) has been held since 1950 at intervals of between three to five years. Team USA won the event in 1954, 1986, 1994, 2010, and 2014. Team USA did not use NBA players in this event until 1994, which explains why Team USA won only twice in the first 11 FIBA World Championships held between 1950 and 1990; other countries regularly sent their professional players, who were generally bigger/stronger and always more experienced than American college players. Team USA did not use NBA players in 1998 because of the NBA lockout, resulting in a bronze medal finish. In 2002, Team USA's NBA players suffered a humiliating sixth place finish, and in 2006 Team USA's NBA players settled for the bronze medal after losing to Greece in the semifinals. In 2010, Kevin Durant led Team USA to the gold medal, while Kyrie Irving won the FIBA World Cup MVP as Team USA took the gold medal again in 2014. Team USA's NBA players finished seventh in 2019, the worst result ever for an American team in any major FIBA event.

Reporters covering Team USA regurgitate the same flawed commentary either out of laziness or because they just don't understand what they are watching. We are told that Team USA needs bigger players to battle on the boards, and that Team USA needs more shooters. In a September 4, 2007 article titled "The Real Story Behind Team USA's Losses in Previous FIBA Events," I provided analysis about the FIBA game that is still relevant and timely today: 

In my game recaps from the FIBA Americas tournament, I frequently mentioned that, contrary to popular belief, the biggest problem that Team USA has had in recent FIBA events has come at the defensive end of the court. That is why I did a post before the tournament titled "Team USA Needs Bruce Bowen More than it Needs Michael Redd." The way things turned out this time around, Team USA did not need either player, going 10-0 without Bowen and with Redd getting the vast majority of his minutes and points after Team USA had built commanding leads. The fact that Team USA won without Redd making a meaningful contribution when the games were close essentially proves my point but, looking forward, it is important to understand the challenge that Team USA is likely to face in the 2008 Olympics. The FIBA Americas tournament did not feature the top FIBA teams; Argentina, the strongest squad that participated other than Team USA, essentially sent its "B" team and did not have the services of Manu Ginobili, Andres Nocioni, Fabricio Oberto and Walter Herrmann. When Team USA faces a fully loaded Argentina team plus the top teams from Europe it will be necessary to play defense with intensity and intelligence in order to win the gold medal. Fortunately, Team USA made great strides in that department in the FIBA Americas tournament, spearheaded by the backcourt defensive wizardry of Kobe Bryant and Jason Kidd. Shutting down opponents' three point shooting while also denying dribble penetration leads to rebounds and steals that get converted into open court scoring opportunities. As Carmelo Anthony, LeBron James and Kobe Bryant just proved with their exceptional shooting and their tremendous per minute scoring rates in the FIBA Americas tournament, when Team USA plays this way the addition of designated outside shooters to the roster is a luxury, not a necessity...

It is mystifying that anyone could believe that Team USA could have turned any of these recent FIBA losses into wins simply by adding three point shooting specialists to the roster; those kind of players would have done nothing to improve the team's shoddy defense and the lack of transition scoring opportunities would have meant that they would not have gotten many great open looks at the hoop. Three point specialists do not generally create their own shots and the half court offense that Team USA was running would hardly have provided them the time and space that they need to shoot accurately.

It is true that in general size matters in the NBA, but the reality is that the best American NBA players at the moment are not big players, and a properly constructed/well-coached Team USA can win FIBA events despite being undersized; further, Team USA's three point shooting defense is much more important that Team USA's own three point shooting. Team USA's current roster has four players listed as 6-10 or taller: Jaren Jackson Jr., Paolo Banchero, Bobby Portis Jr.,and Walker Kessler. Jackson leads that quartet in mpg (17.2) but ranks just sixth on the team in minutes, and he is averaging only 2.8 rpg. Banchero is averaging 3.4 rpg in 15.9 mpg, while Portis is the best rebounder of the bunch at 4.0 rpg (third on the team) in 11.6 mpg. Kessler is not part of the rotation, averaging 6.1 mpg.

What matters most for Team USA in FIBA play is creating tremendous defensive pressure against opposing guards; this limits both open three point shots and the ability to easily feed post players in prime scoring position, while also creating turnovers and rebounding opportunities that can be turned into transition offense.

Team USA lost to France in the first game of the 2020 Olympics (played in 2021) because of defensive breakdowns, not because of lack of size or lack of three point shooting. Team USA corrected those defensive breakdowns, and defeated France in the gold medal game. Team USA shot just 9-32 (.281) from three point range in the gold medal game, but Team USA held France to 10-31 (.323) three point shooting without conceding ground in the paint, and that has consistently been the recipe for success in FIBA play: shut down the three point shooters without compromising the interior defense. If Team USA makes three pointers that is a nice bonus, but it is not necessary for victory; in contrast to Team USA--which can use athleticism to create transition scoring opportunities--most FIBA teams rely on their three point shooting, and if that weapon is neutralized then Team USA has a big advantage.

Despite the loss to Lithuania, Team USA will advance out of pool play to the quarterfinals, and has already qualified for the 2024 Olympics. However, Team USA must improve defensively to win the 2023 FIBA World Cup and to win Olympic gold in 2024.

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posted by David Friedman @ 10:20 PM

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Sunday, August 05, 2012

LeBron James Takes Over in the Clutch as Team USA Survives Major Scare Versus Lithuania

Lithuania outscored Team USA during the final three quarters and led 84-82 with 5:50 remaining in the game but LeBron James, Chris Paul and Deron Williams keyed a furious rally that enabled Team USA to pull out a 99-94 victory. Team USA improved to 4-0 in Group A competition, clinching the top seed in the quarterfinal round with one game remaining versus Argentina on Monday. James scored nine of his 20 points in the final 3:58. James shot 9-14 from the field overall and grabbed five rebounds in a team-high 35 minutes. He also had three steals and a blocked shot but did not register an assist. Carmelo Anthony tied James with 20 points but he did not play in the final 4:29; as I have repeatedly predicted, when Team USA faced the realistic possibility of losing a game Coach Mike Krzyzewski benched starting center Tyson Chandler (who had just one point and one rebound in eight minutes) and he benched Anthony--who can be instant offense for both teams--in favor of a small lineup featuring LeBron James, Kevin Durant, Kobe Bryant and two point guards. Chris Paul came up with several big plays down the stretch--including a few deflections and an offensive rebound that led to a Deron Williams trey that put Team USA up 95-88 with 2:49 remaining--and he had a greater impact on the outcome than his boxscore statistics (seven points, team-high six assists, team-high four steals) suggest. Deron Williams finished with 12 points but shot just 4-12 from the field. Durant had 16 points on 5-12 field goal shooting, while Bryant struggled at both ends of the court, finishing with six points on 1-7 field goal shooting. Bryant made some good defensive plays but he also gave up some open shots with risky gambles and he forced a couple shots on offense when Team USA was struggling. Linas Kleiza led Lithuania with a game-high 25 points on 10-20 field goal shooting, former Duke point guard Martynas Pocius scored 14 points and dished off six assists and Darius Songaila contributed 11 points. Veteran Team USA killer Sarunas Jasikevicius added eight points and six assists; he and Pocius dissected Team USA on screen/roll plays throughout the game, hitting three pointers, making deft drives and passing to open cutters for layups.

The two main stories emerging from this game are (1) this is clearly and emphatically LeBron James' team and (2) Team USA is still potentially vulnerable against teams that pack the paint on defense and can efficiently execute screen/roll plays on offense. This game looked like a nightmare rerun of Team USA's 101-95 loss to Greece in the 2006 FIBA World Championship. In the 2008 Olympics, Team USA turned to Bryant to save the day when things got tough against Spain the gold medal game--and that made sense because Bryant was the best player in the league at the time. Bryant is still an All-NBA First Team caliber performer but James is the best player in the league and a champion and Team USA relied on James to take over at the end of the game.

Before the game, NBC's Doug Collins said that Team USA's coaching staff wanted the players to "ramp it up" and "force their will defensively." Neither of those things happened; Lithuania had an excellent game plan at both ends of the court and constantly had Team USA on their heels. The saving grace for Team USA--besides the aforementioned clutch individual plays made by James, Paul and Williams--is that Team USA forced 23 turnovers and generated a substantial part of their offense in transition. Team USA shot just 35-79 (.443) from the field and that number would have been much lower without those fast break points. Lithuania played a classic FIBA game against Team USA, shooting 38-65 (.585) from the field overall and 7-16 (.438) from three point range: their middle screen/roll play consistently produced layups and open three pointers.

Team USA opened the game with a 9-4 run but Bryant committed two quick fouls and had to sit out at the 8:16 mark of the first quarter. Team USA only outscored Lithuania 24-21 the rest of the quarter to lead 33-25 after the first 10 minutes. Team USA stretched that margin to 39-27 but Collins commented, "The Americans are not sharp here in this game." Lithuania deserves credit for how well they played but Team USA also made a lot of mental errors at both ends of the court; as NBC's Doc Rivers put it at halftime, Team USA played hard but they did not play smart.

Team USA led 55-51 at halftime but Lithuania quickly scored a Jonas Valanciunas layup and a Jasikevicius three pointer to go up 56-55. Team USA retaliated with a 7-0 run but Lithuania never folded mentally or physically, tying the score twice more during the quarter and only trailing 78-72 as the fourth quarter began.

Anyone who expected Team USA to use quickness and depth to outrun and wear down Lithuania was very disappointed; after Anthony opened the fourth quarter with a jumper to make the score 80-72, Lithuania went on a 10-0 run, causing Coach Krzyzewski to call just his second timeout of the Olympics. Soon after that he went with the lineup he trusts the most: Bryant, Durant, James, Paul and Williams. Team USA does not need more size or more three point shooters; the way to win in FIBA play is to fully utilize speed and quickness to shut down the screen/roll attack and to generate offense with crisp cutting and passing and that is what Team USA's prime quintet did in the final 4:29, led by James, Paul and Williams.

Lithuania is older and slower than they were when they were a top medal contender in FIBA events--they dropped to just 1-3 in Group A--but they have played Team USA tough for the past decade and they once again showed the blueprint to use against Team USA; it will be interesting to see if more talented teams like Argentina, Spain or Russia will be able to use that blueprint to upset Team USA.

What does Team USA need to do differently? Defensively, they need to stop switching so much; the perimeter players must fight through the screens and the weak side defenders must be active against cutters in the lane while also keeping an eye on anyone who is a three point threat. Offensively, Team USA must rely less on one on one play and three pointers taken early in the shot clock; Team USA should attack the hoop to score layups or create open three pointers on drive/kick plays. Collins said that Bryant is Team USA's best postup scorer with James and Anthony close behind but I think that at this stage of their respective careers James is now Team USA's best low post scorer provided that he is playing with the correct aggressive mindset. Anthony can score from just about anywhere but his defense is so bad that I would not trust him in a close game--and, judging from his late game lineup, Coach Krzyzewski shares those concerns.

Team USA is not as dominant as they looked against Nigeria nor are they quite as vulnerable as they looked against Lithuania; they are the clear gold medal favorite but they can be beaten if they are sloppy and if their opponent executes a Lithuania-style game plan for the entire 40 minutes.

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posted by David Friedman @ 12:40 AM

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Friday, August 01, 2008

Team USA Applies Defensive Pressure, Beats Lithuania 120-84

Team USA concluded the Macau portion of the USA Basketball International Challenge with a 120-84 victory over Lithuania, improving to 2-0 in this event and 3-0 overall on their pre-Olympic exhibition tour. Team USA will play their final two exhibition games in Shanghai before beginning Olympic preliminary round action against host China on August 10. The story of this game was Team USA's pressure defense, led by Kobe Bryant, who set the tone right from the start by completely taking sharpshooter Sarunas Jasikevicius out of the game. Jasikevicius did not make a field goal in the first quarter as Team USA opened the contest with a 24-5 outburst. Jasikevicius finished with nine points on 2-8 field goal shooting, a far cry from his usual numbers against Team USA in FIBA competition (see Historical Note below). That history was very much on Bryant's mind: "He had a great game against us a few years ago, and he was real brash about it, trash talking and things of that nature. So it's my responsibility to bring it to him. He reminded me of it, so we sicced the Doberman on him." Although Bryant referred to "us," he was not a member of the previous teams that Jasikevicius burned and that is the biggest difference between the 2002-2004-2006 editions of Team USA and the current squad: Bryant has made it his personal mission to shut down the perimeter players who have caused Team USA so much trouble and heartbreak in recent FIBA competitions, a job that no one on those teams was willing and/or able to fill. In addition to his superb defense, Bryant scored 13 points on 6-9 field goal shooting, had three assists and did not commit a turnover.

Dwyane Wade scored a game-high 19 points on 7-9 shooting in 18 minutes off of the bench. Dwight Howard powered his way to 17 points and five rebounds and LeBron James had another great all-around performance: 15 points, six assists, five rebounds. Michael Redd added 16 points, including 10 in the fourth period garbage time session. Jason Kidd had two points, two assists and three steals in just 11 minutes. He played a key role in Team USA's opening run but it seems like Coach Mike Krzyzewski is limiting Kidd's playing time to save him for the Olympics. Carmelo Anthony scored 11 points on 4-9 shooting but his poor defense is the untold story so far for Team USA; he is the only starting player of whom it could be said that Team USA plays better when he is on the bench. I know that this contradicts a lot of what has been said and written about Anthony and I will elaborate on this point momentarily.

Rick Kamla and Fran Fraschilla did the play by play and color commentary respectively for ESPN2. Kamla's high strung and excessive cheerleading are tiresome and it sometimes seems like he is trying so hard to come up with a good quip or to use certain material that he prepared that he is not actually paying attention to the action. Case in point: Deron Williams drove to the hoop and tried to throw down a one handed dunk instead of going up with two hands. Williams was fouled and Fraschilla noted that if Williams had used two hands then this could have potentially been a three point play. Kamla then went off on a whole tangent about how well coached Williams is and how important it is to go up with two hands when you are being contested by a Lithuanian player who has experience as a boxer; when Kamla finished, Fraschilla gently reminded Kamla that Williams had in fact NOT gone up with two hands. I half expected Kamla to offer up an Emily Litella-esque "Never mind."

Fraschilla did his usual excellent job of explaining the differences between FIBA play and NBA play, describing the strengths and weaknesses of FIBA players who may be unfamiliar to the viewing audience and talking about the strategies for both sides but he should place greater emphasis on how bad Anthony's defense is and make note of the impact that this has on the game. Fraschilla has mentioned this at times but he neglected to point out that Anthony was benched for the final 7:25 of the second quarter in Team USA's 114-82 win over Turkey and he did not mention the quick hook that Anthony got in the second quarter of this game or the fact that Team USA again played better in the second quarter with Anthony on the bench. Fraschilla's three keys for Team USA were a solid defensive start, find shooters and half court execution. Team USA did an excellent job with the first and third points and a pretty good job with the second point, though there was some slippage in the early moments of the third quarter.

Team USA won the opening tip and ran an excellent half court play: Howard set a screen for Bryant, who popped up to the top of the key, received a dribble hand off from James and buried a long jumper. After Jasikevicius missed a three pointer, Howard and Anthony executed a screen/roll play that culminated in a Howard dunk. Then Bryant poked the ball away from Jasikevicius, which led to a Howard layup. Team USA nearly forced another turnover but in the scramble Robertas Javtokas recovered the ball and drove down the lane for a thunderous dunk. The teams traded misses and then Kidd penetrated, drew the defense and fed Howard for a layup. James played excellent screen/roll defense, Kidd jumped in the air to get the steal and then while still off the ground he threw the ball ahead to James for a fast break dunk and a 10-2 lead. Lithuania called timeout right after that play. On the next possession, Howard poked the ball free and James had another fast break dunk. After a few misses by both teams, Bryant snared a defensive rebound and threw a great outlet pass to Kidd for a fast break layup. Lithuania had enormous difficulties running their offense because of the relentless pressure that Bryant applied to Jasikevicius.

Lithuania switched to a zone defense to try to contain Howard and force Team USA to shoot jumpers but Bryant foiled that plan by driving to the hoop and nailing a short bank shot. Howard also scored on a drive and made a free throw to put Team USA up 19-5 while tagging Javtokas with his third foul. Kidd and Anthony both sat down at that point. Bryant made a turnaround jumper and drilled a three pointer over the zone to push the lead to 24-5. "Team USA has imposed its defensive will on this team," Fraschilla said. Bryant and James both went to the bench with Team USA leading 25-7. Anthony came back into the game. Lithuania outscored Team USA 8-6 in the last 2:48 of the quarter. Howard (10) and Bryant (nine) scored 19 of Team USA's 31 first quarter points.

Kidd sat out the entire second quarter and James and Bryant began the second quarter on the bench. Anthony was in the game but at the 8:41 mark James came in for him; Team USA had yet to score, though Lithuania had just two points. James assisted on a Redd three pointer but Team USA let Lithuania get loose for a couple three pointers and the score was 38-23 Team USA when Bryant returned to action. Team USA extended the margin slightly to 45-27 by the time that Anthony checked back in to the game. Ramunas Siskauskas promptly launched Anthony out of his shoes with a pump fake and waltzed down the lane for a score. Bryant drove and then dished to Deron Williams who swung the ball to a wide open Anthony for a three pointer but at the next loose ball Krzyzewski removed Anthony from the game; Anthony had only been in for 1:18, during which time Team USA was outscored 5-3. Yes, that is a small sample size but this is the second game in a row that Anthony exited play shortly after making a bad defensive play. More to the point, in the second quarter Team USA outscored Lithuania 22-17 when Anthony was on the bench but were outscored by Lithuania 7-3 when he was in the game. The overall plus/minus numbers are even more revealing: Team USA led 56-39 at halftime but only outscored Lithuania 28-20 when Anthony was in the game--and that includes a 19-5 start to which he did not contribute much (Bryant, James and Howard were the dominant players on the court). In contrast, Team USA outscored Lithuania 37-18 when Bryant was in the game during the first half and 50-29 during James' first half playing time.

Team USA got off to a very shaky start in the third quarter, giving up back to back three pointers, answering with a James three pointer and then giving up another three pointer. The three point shot is the lifeblood of most FIBA teams and it is vitally important to contest these shots or, even better, apply so much defensive pressure that the other team does not even get to shoot from three point range. Team USA did an exceptional job in this regard in the first quarter--spearheaded by Bryant--but the first few minutes of the third quarter looked like a nightmare replay of Team USA's losses in recent FIBA competitions. Lithuania cut the lead to 59-48 after their fourth three pointer in the first 1:45 of the third quarter but Team USA did not panic and made the appropriate adjustments. Bryant had lengthy discussions with Coach Krzyzewski, Howard and several of his other teammates and it sure would be interesting to know what was said during those conversations, as opposed to the banal and irrelevant questions that are typically asked in postgame press conferences. The best that I could figure out based on Bryant's gestures and what Team USA did before and after the three point barrage is that Bryant was trying to get everyone on the same page regarding when to switch on screen/roll plays, when not to switch and who should be rotating to cover the big man rolling to the hoop. This is the stuff that Team USA never could figure out in previous defeats but whatever was said the bottom line is that Team USA promptly went on a 16-8 run to push the lead back to 20, 75-55, after which Lithuania never seriously threatened again. Obviously, that required a total team effort by Team USA but Bryant's fingerprints were all over this game deciding burst: he was credited with two assists during the run, fed Anthony for a three point play with a pass that was not scored as an assist and he provided the punctuation mark with a fast break dunk. Bryant sat down at that point and James went to the bench shortly after that with Team USA still up by 20, 80-60. Wade scored seven points in the final 1:30 of the third quarter to extend the lead to 91-66, enabling Bryant, James, Kidd and Anthony to sit out the entire fourth quarter.

Team USA outscored Lithuania 56-34 when Bryant was in the game, including the 25-4 run to open the game and the 16-8 third quarter run that decided the game. Team USA outscored Lithuania 74-50 when James was in the game and he also played a key role in both of those important runs. Kidd contributed to the 19-5 start and saw some third quarter action; Team USA outscored Lithuania 36-21 during his time on the court. I don't understand how Anthony can be considered Team USA's best FIBA player. While there is no question that he is a tremendous scorer, his defense is poor, so he is not nearly the all-around threats that Bryant and James are. Team USA only outscored Lithuania 45-36 when Anthony was in the game and it is important to remember that he shares some of his minutes with Bryant and James, who are clearly carrying most of the load for this team. Anthony has value as a versatile scorer who must be guarded but it will be interesting to monitor his production--and his minutes--against the elite FIBA teams: although I have yet to read or hear anyone talking about it, Anthony has twice been benched shortly after committing defensive lapses. Maybe that is just a coincidence as Coach Krzyzewski tinkers with his rotation but Anthony sat out the last 7:25 of the second quarter versus Turkey and went to the bench in the second quarter of this game twice after being on the court for less than two minutes and that kind of substitution pattern is an unusual way to handle someone who many people consider to be the best FIBA player on team.

Historical Note:
----------------

Jasikevicius missed a three pointer at the buzzer in the 2000 Olympics semifinals that could have handed Team USA its first loss since NBA players began participating in FIBA play in 1992. Jasikevicius had a game-high 27 points and shot 5-11 from three point range in that contest. Team USA escaped with an 85-83 victory, foreshadowing the end of Team USA's run at the top of FIBA competitions even though Team USA claimed the gold medal that year; Team USA did not win another FIBA gold medal until last summer's FIBA Americas tournament, the first time that Bryant suited up for Team USA.

Lithuania defeated Team USA 94-90 in the preliminary round of the 2004 Olympics. Jasikevicius trashed Team USA's shoddy defense, pouring in a game-high 28 points while shooting 7-12 from three point range as Lithuania shot 13-27 from behind the arc overall. Team USA forced 20 turnovers but did not take advantage of those extra possessions as starting guards Allen Iverson (4-12) and Stephon Marbury (2-14) shot horribly from the field. The teams each grabbed 31 rebounds. Four current Team USA players were on the 2004 squad: Dwyane Wade scored six points in 16 minutes, Carmelo Anthony had five points in 10 minutes and LeBron James did not score in six minutes. Carlos Boozer contributed 10 points in 13 minutes.

Team USA avenged that loss with a 104-96 victory in the bronze medal game. Shawn Marion led the way with 22 points as Team USA overcame Lithuania's 22-37 three point shooting barrage, including 7-12 by Arvydas Macijauskas (who had a game-high 24 points) and 5-9 by Sarunas Jasikevicius, who finished with 17 points. Team USA won by forcing 20 Lithuania turnovers and dominating the paint (40-26 rebounding advantage). Boozer had seven points and tied Tim Duncan with a game-high eight rebounds in 23 minutes, Wade scored nine points in 16 minutes, James had six points in seven minutes and Anthony scored three points in seven minutes.

Summary: In his three previous games against Team USA, Jasikevicius averaged 24.0 ppg and shot 17-32 (.531) from three point range.

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posted by David Friedman @ 3:54 PM

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