Late Dallas Run Spoils Victor Wembanyama's San Antonio Debut
Victor Wembanyama's debut may have been the pregame headline, but Dallas' late 8-0 run was the story as the Dallas Mavericks defeated the San Antonio Spurs, 126-119. Luka Doncic posted game-high totals in points (33), rebounds (13), and assists (10) to lead the way for Dallas. Doncic joined Oscar Robertson and Giannis Antetokounmpo as the only players to post a 30 point triple double in a season opener (Robertson did it twice). Kyrie Irving added 22 points on 10-24 field goal shooting while also passing for six assists. Grant Williams and Tim Hardaway Jr. each scored 17 points.
Devin Vassell scored a team-high 23 points as seven Spurs scored in double figures. Wembanyama was fourth on that list behind Vassell, Keldon Johnson (17), and Tre Jones (16). Wembanyama had 15 points on 6-9 field goal shooting, plus five rebounds, two assists, two steals, and one blocked shot--but he also posted game-high totals in fouls (five) and turnovers (five). Wembanyama's size, athleticism, and basketball talent are obvious--but he is also a skinny 19 year old whose body is still developing and who still is learning the NBA game. It is easy to push him out of the post, and he is far from being a dominant player at this early stage of his career. It is important to remember that few 19 year old NBA players--even the ones who developed into all-time greats--played at even an All-Star level (let alone an all-time great level). Wembanyama will have some big games this season, and his season averages will likely exceed his first game totals in every category, but it is way too early to crown him as a once in a generation player or whatever other hype has been attached to his name.
The Spurs are likely way too young and inexperienced to be a playoff team this season; that is the price of tanking. Perhaps the Spurs will prove to be the rare (or only) team that can tank without creating a losing atmosphere, but in general once a franchise takes the stance that winning does not matter it is not so easy to change the mindset to the "every possession matters" attitude that playoff contenders have.
On the other hand, the Dallas Mavericks have an MVP candidate in Doncic, an NBA champion in Irving, and several solid veteran players. The Mavericks figure to be an explosive offensive team, but their fate will be determined by their commitment to consistently playing good defense--and even though the Mavericks won this game, this was not even close to a championship-caliber defensive performance. The Spurs tied for the worst record in the Western Conference last season while ranking 23rd out of 30 teams in scoring and 25th in field goal percentage, but against Dallas they poured in 119 points while shooting 46-89 (.517) from the field. It is reasonable to believe that the Spurs are better now than they were last season, but it is doubtful that they will be a playoff team with an elite offense, so any Dallas fan should be alarmed that the Mavericks struggled to keep the Spurs under 120 points. The Mavericks did not lead at all during the first half, and in the final 1:51 they needed an Irving three pointer, an Irving drive, and a Doncic three pointer to escape with a win.
If the Mavericks' defense does not improve significantly, they will have many games during which they give up at least 125 points, which happened 17 times last season; the Mavericks posted a 4-13 record in those games.
Labels: Dallas Mavericks, Kyrie Irving, Luka Doncic, San Antonio Spurs, Victor Wembanyama
posted by David Friedman @ 1:25 AM
8 Comments:
Yeah, you're right about Wembanyama. He didn't play heavy minutes in his debut due to foul trouble. And he will have better averages than yesterday, as long he avoids fouls.
Some pundits had the audacity to claim that Wilt Chamberlain's legendary rookie debut with 43 points and 27 boards ere in danger.
But the reality is that Wemby is only 19 while Wilt was a seasoned 23 years old by the time he started his NBA career. Having already played with the Harlem Globetrotters for a year, and they were considered the best ballers in the world at that time.
Awet M:
If Wembanyama can match those single game totals during his career that will be impressive, even if he does not reach both marks in the same game. It was ridiculous to suggest that he might do so in his first professional game.
If you watched the game, it seemed like Wembanyama barely got the ball anyway. While it is true that he does need to work on establishing post position, the Spurs' guards also need to learn how to deliver key entry passes when he's got a clear mismatch with his hand up high. Kyrie Irving tried fronting him, but the Spurs failed to get him the ball.
Many Spurs players think they are better than they really are. Wemby is being treated like an average guy on the offense. In reality, most of those players will be gone from the team in two to three years. Excepting maybe Vessel and Schochan.
Coach Pops is allowing it to happen. Which is odd, because he did not have any problems giving the reigns to Duncan when he already had David Robinson as the primary option on offense.
Today, who's the Spurs' first option?
Awet:
I watched the game, and I watched Wembanyama before the regular season started as well. He struggles to establish/maintain post position, and even when he maintains post position and gets the ball he does not have much of a postup game. His offensive game right now consists of jump shots mixed in with some dunks off of lobs and some drives.
Wembanyama does not get the ball much because he does not move much without the ball and, as noted above, he does not have much of a back to the basket game.
The Spurs seem to be taking the approach of not asking him to do too much too soon. Presumably, Popovich has noticed the same limitations that I have and thus decided not to make Wembanyama the focal point of the offense.
The comparison to Duncan makes no sense. Duncan entered the NBA as a four year college player who was a full grown man with a fully developed postup game. In contrast, Wembanyama is a 19 year old kid whose body and game are far from fully developed.
While leaving out the fact that Duncan was only 21 years old when he made his NBA debut. The average age for a fully developed body is about 24, the age David Robinson was when he finally started playing in the league. Moreover, I'd argue 25 to 28 is the average age of a player's athletic prime.
But I agree that Duncan's low post game was more advanced than Wemby's by that point. It is interesting to note that their debut stats are similar:
Duncan in 1997: 15 points on 6-9 FGs
Wemby in 2023: 15 points on 6-9 FGs
Care to make a prediction about tonight's game?
@awet,
I agree with your assessment in terms of athletic primes and body development, but want to add that while 2 years might not seem like much, it's huge at that age. Look at Giannis as a rookie compared to him in year 3. For what it's worth, Duncan has a sturdier base and frame.
Awet:
I didn't "leave out" anything. I am not going to provide a complete Duncan bio in the comments section. Duncan entered the NBA as a full grown man who had already played four years of college basketball, while Wembanyama is a 19 year old kid with no college basketball experience who has been playing in lower level pro leagues that do not have an 82 game season. If you look at a picture of rookie Duncan and rookie Wembanyama the difference between full grown man and 19 year old kid is obvious. I never said that Duncan was in his prime as a rookie.
I will be very surprised if Wembanyama's full year rookie stats approach Duncan's, regardless of their first game numbers.
I don't typically do one game predictions because I focus on larger sample sizes and overall trends, but in a matchup of two teams that tanked last season (Spurs versus Rockets) I will take the Spurs at home.
Jordan:
You are correct that two years in the 19-21 age range makes a huge difference. I would also emphasize the difference between playing four years of Division I college basketball compared to playing exclusively in European leagues that have different rules and styles of play than college or the NBA.
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