Minnesota Versus Dallas Preview
Western Conference Finals
#3 Minnesota (56-26) vs. #5 Dallas (50-32)
Season series: Minnesota, 3-1
Dallas can win if…Luka Doncic averages a 30 point triple double, Kyrie Irving averages at least 23 ppg and at least 7 apg, and Dallas' big men hold their own against Minnesota's big and versatile frontcourt. Doncic averaged 24.7 ppg, 10.5 rpg, and 8.7 apg as Dallas upset the number one seeded Oklahoma City Thunder 4-2 in the second round, and during the 2024 playoffs Doncic is averaging 27.3 ppg, 9.7 rpg, and 9.1 apg (first in the league). Doncic, who won his first regular season scoring title this year (33.9 ppg), is consistently great, but his 2024 playoff scoring is lower than his playoff scoring in 2021 and 2022 when he led the league in that category (35.7 ppg in 2021, 31.7 ppg in 2022); the decrease in Doncic's scoring is partly because he has more help around him, and partly because he has been slowed at times by a host of nagging injuries. It is unlikely that Doncic will ever be a defensive stopper, but he has improved at that end of the court to the extent that opposing teams target him less often and have less success when they target him.
Kyrie Irving had some good moments versus Oklahoma City, but overall he barely played at an All-Star level, let alone at the level of the all-time great that he is supposed to be; he averaged 15.7 ppg, 6.2 apg, and 2.3 rpg, numbers that are below his overall 2024 playoff statistics (21.1 ppg, 5.4 apg, 4.0 apg). Many TV commentators gush over Irving's ballhandling skills, but of greater importance to Dallas' winning chances are (1) his improved defensive effort this season and especially during the playoffs, and (2) his proven ability to be the second option on a championship team (2016 Cleveland Cavaliers).
The difference for the Mavericks between missing the playoffs last season and reaching the Western Conference Finals this season is the play of their midseason acquisitions P.J. Washington and Daniel Gafford, two players who provide size, rebounding, and toughness. Washington was Dallas' second best player in the Oklahoma City series, averaging 17.7 ppg and 8.3 rpg while leading the team in three point field goals made (23) and three point field goal percentage (.469). Gafford led the team in blocked shots (2.0 bpg) versus Oklahoma City while also averaging 11.0 ppg and 7.5 rpg.
Gafford, Washington, and rookie Dereck Lively II give the Mavericks a much-needed paint presence at both ends of the court, but they face a significant challenge matching up with Minnesota's Karl-Anthony Towns, Rudy Gobert, and Naz Reid.
Minnesota will win because…their size will enable them to control the paint at both ends of the court, and because Anthony Edwards will play Luka Doncic to at least a draw. The Timberwolves can throw a host of long-armed, rangy defenders at Irving--and Edwards has already publicly relished the opportunity to guard Irving. Oklahoma City's younger and bigger perimeter players gave Irving problems at both ends of the court, and Minnesota is a better defensive team than Oklahoma City. The Timberwolves will not shut down Doncic, but they have enough wing defenders and enough paint presence to prevent a steady diet of 40 point explosions.
Minnesota's big man trio earned a host of awards this season, and they overpowered the big, physical Denver Nuggets in the second round. Towns made the All-Star team for the fourth time, Gobert won his record-tying fourth Defensive Player of the Year award, and Reid won the Sixth Man of the Year award. Towns is a three level scorer, Gobert is an elite rim protector who scores efficiently in the paint, and Reid provides an athletic and energetic presence at both ends of the court.
Edwards is being prematurely crowned as the next Michael Jordan--Jordan won six Finals MVPs and six championships, while Edwards has won two playoff series so far--but if you ignore the hype and just watch his game then you will like what you see. Edwards is a three level scorer who is a deft and willing passer, and he is also an enthusiastic and effective defensive player. It is fair to say that he looks like a player who could be a perennial MVP contender, but it is ridiculous to compare a young player who is just starting his NBA journey with Jordan, who had no skill set weaknesses and who utilized his superlative skills to transform the Chicago Bulls into a dominant team.
Other things to consider: While other franchises try to "tank to the top" or assemble "super teams," the Timberwolves built their roster organically. Tim Connelly, who laid the foundation of the Denver Nuggets' championship success before becoming Minnesota's President of Basketball Operations, assembled the Timberwolves' roster with the understanding that size matters in the NBA at both ends of the court. "Stat gurus" mocked Connelly's trade for Rudy Gobert, but Connelly did not panic after the Timberwolves lost 4-1 to the Denver Nuggets in the 2023 playoffs. Connelly ignored the noise about Gobert being unplayable in today's "pace and space" NBA--noise that could still be heard during the second round of this year's playoffs before the Timberwolves won games six and seven to send the Nuggets home for the summer. The Timberwolves have Mike Conley's veteran, stabilizing influence at point guard, Anthony Edwards' superstar potential on the wing, and the big man trio discussed above. Their bench is excellent, and the biggest difference this season is that the team's maturity level has risen dramatically; there is no internal strife, and they have vastly reduced their bonehead plays that once inspired Charles Barkley to declare that they are "dumb as rocks."
In contrast, Mark Cuban has publicly embraced tanking--a disgraceful stance for which the NBA has fined him twice--and it is interesting to observe the favorable media coverage that he continues to receive despite (1) the Mavericks not being particularly successful on the court for most of his tenure and (2) the Mavericks' well-documented dysfunctional workplace culture that Cuban implausibly claimed that he knew nothing about. Cuban prematurely cast aside much of Dirk Nowitzki's supporting cast after the Mavericks won the 2011 NBA title, and as a result of that blunder--and other personnel miscues while Cuban ran the team's basketball operations--the Mavericks did not win a playoff series again until 2022. Then, Cuban responded to that success by letting Jalen Brunson walk away in free agency, and the Mavericks missed the playoffs in 2023. Therefore, it is perhaps not surprising that the Mavericks' success this season coincides with Cuban selling his majority interest in the team and taking a step back from controlling basketball operations. Cuban placed himself in the enviable position of remaining the public face of the franchise while enabling smarter people to make basketball decisions for which many media members will still give him credit.
Minnesota will defeat Dallas in six games.
Labels: Anthony Edwards, Dallas Mavericks, Karl-Anthony Towns, Kyrie Irving, Luka Doncic, Mike Conley, Minnesota Timberwolves, Naz Reid, P.J. Washington, Rudy Gobert
posted by David Friedman @ 10:26 PM
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