20 Second Timeout

Notes About the 2025 Christmas Day Quintupleheader

This is the 18th consecutive year that the NBA had a Christmas Day quintupleheader, and the 78th year that the NBA played games on Christmas Day, a tradition that began during the league's second season. Christmas Day may be the unofficial start of the NBA season for casual fans, but the reality is that we are more than a third of the way through the NBA season; we have seen enough to separate the contenders from the pretenders, which is why my Christmas Day game recaps examine the big picture along with the small picture of the individual game outcomes.

The 2025 Christmas Day quintupleheader featured the reigning NBA champion Oklahoma City Thunder, the 2023 NBA champion Denver Nuggets, the 2022 NBA champion Golden State Warriors, and the 2020 NBA champion L.A. Lakers; the Thunder are intact and dominant, while the latter three teams have had significant roster overhauls since winning their championships, and of those three only the Nuggets look like legitimate contenders this season.   

Game One: New York Knicks 126, Cleveland Cavaliers 124

1) The New York Knicks extended their NBA record by playing on Christmas Day for the 58th time, a nod to the league's East Coast roots. The Knicks reached the NBA Finals three straight times (1951-53) in the league's early years before suffering a playoff drought from 1960-66. The franchise's golden years extended from 1969-74 when the team reached the Eastern Division Finals or Eastern Conference Finals six straight times, capturing two NBA titles (1970, 1973) with Willis Reed and Walt Frazier leading the way. The Knicks did not reach the Eastern Conference Finals again until 1993. They lost in the NBA Finals in 1994 and 1999, and then did not advance to the Eastern Conference Finals from 2001 until last season's appearance. 

This season is championship or bust for the Knicks, who replaced coach Tom Thibodeau with Mike Brown. The Knicks beat the San Antonio Spurs 124-113 to capture the 2025 NBA Cup, and they entered Christmas Day with the Eastern Conference's second best record. 

The Cleveland Cavaliers won their only NBA title in 2016 while making four straight NBA Finals appearances from 2015-18. They missed the playoffs for four straight years after LeBron James fled to L.A. before reaching the playoffs for each of the past three seasons. The Cavaliers posted the Eastern Conference's best record last season (64-18) before losing in the second round of the playoffs for the second consecutive year.

On paper, the Cavaliers have all of the necessary elements to make a championship run: an MVP-caliber player (Donovan Mitchell) paired with a multiple-time All-Star (Darius Garland) in a dynamic backcourt, a young and talented big man who has already made the All-NBA Second Team while winning the Defensive Player of the Year award (Evan Mobley), an athletic big man who has made the All-Star team as a rebounder and high percentage paint scorer (Jarrett Allen), and a deep, versatile supporting cast. However, the whole has consistently added up to less than the sum of the parts, and that should not be attributed just to injuries; the eye test indicates that the Cavaliers lack mental and physical toughness, demonstrated by the fact that they fold when they are challenged by good teams in the playoffs. The only way to refute that contention is to make a long playoff run, and if the Cavaliers could not do that after a 64-18 season then it will be a tall task for them to do it after a slow start that has them languishing in seventh place in the Eastern Conference.

2) The Cavaliers jumped out to an 18-3 lead by the 6:42 mark of the first quarter. Karl-Anthony Towns was on the bench after picking up two quick fouls--undisciplined fouling is a recurring problem for him--and the Knicks looked shell-shocked. The Knicks cut the margin to nine (20-11) on a rare six point possession: Lonzo Ball was assessed a flagrant foul for a reckless closeout as Jalen Brunson drained a three pointer, resulting in a Brunson free throw followed by a Mohamed Diawara bucket after the Knicks inbounded the ball. The Cavaliers seemed to regain control, though, and they led 38-23 at the end of the first quarter as Mitchell (12 points on 5-6 field goal shooting) and Garland (nine points on 3-4 field goal shooting) set the pace offensively while the Cavaliers held the Knicks to 9-24 (.375) field goal shooting. ESPN's Doris Burke mentioned a pearl of wisdom from Doug Collins that I often cite: some people focus on so-called "clutch" stats or fourth quarter numbers, but the NBA is often a first quarter league, because what happens in the first quarter sets the tone for the rest of the game (although that did not prove to be the case in this game due to New York's comeback/Cleveland's collapse).

Jordan Clarkson drilled two three pointers at the start of the second quarter to slash Cleveland's lead to 38-29, and that foreshadowed the Knicks outscoring the Cavaliers 37-20 in the second quarter to take a 60-58 halftime lead. Towns had six points and five rebounds in the second quarter after going scoreless with one rebound in the first quarter. Clarkson paced both teams with 11 second quarter points, while Mitchell did not score in the second quarter.

The Cavaliers reasserted control by outscoring the Knicks 38-24 in the third quarter to go up 96-84 heading into the final stanza. Jaylon Tyson led the way with 11 third quarter points on 5-6 field goal shooting off of the bench.

The Cavaliers led 103-86 early in the fourth quarter, and they were up 107-91 at the 8:11 mark of the fourth quarter after Garland dished to a cutting Tyson for a layup. They seemed to be in control--and then they collapsed. The fourth quarter boxscore is beautiful from the Knicks' point of view but brutal from the Cavaliers' perspective: the Knicks outscored the Cavaliers 42-28, outrebounded them 16-12, and shot .556 (15-27) from the field while holding the Cavaliers to .346 (9-26) field goal shooting. Brunson (13 points on 4-8 field goal shooting) and Tyler Kolek (11 points on 4-5 field goal shooting) did most of the scoring damage for the Knicks, while Mitchell Robinson had eight rebounds. Mitchell scored 15 points but shot just 4-11 from the field. No other Cavalier had more than four fourth quarter points.

Brunson has a track record of producing in the clutch, and his teammates follow his example. The Cavaliers rely on their talent, but when the going gets tough and they need defensive stops they fall apart, and hope that Mitchell's shot making will bail them out. That is not how championship caliber teams operate. 

3) Brunson finished with a game-high tying 34 points on 10-25 field goal shooting. Clarkson provided a huge boost with 25 points in 29 minutes off of the bench, and Kolek added 16 points in 25 minutes. Towns finished with 11 points and a game-high 14 rebounds, and Robinson had 13 rebounds in 17 scoreless minutes.

Mitchell had a game-high tying 34 points on 12-25 field goal shooting. Media driven narratives often link Cleveland's success to how frequently Mitchell shoots--suggesting that the Cavaliers are better off when he shoots less often--but he is not the problem: he plays hard and makes clutch shots; the problem is that the Cavaliers lack the necessary toughness to get stops and to complete defensive possessions with rebounds.

Garland added 20 points and a game-high 10 assists.  

Game Two: San Antonio Spurs 117, Oklahoma City Thunder 102

1) This is becoming one of the NBA's most intriguing rivalries, pitting the young reigning NBA champion Oklahoma City Thunder versus the even younger up and coming San Antonio Spurs; this will not be a full-fledged rivalry until the Spurs (1) make the playoffs and (2) face the Thunder in the playoffs, but the Spurs made their presence felt even before this game by beating the Thunder twice in 10 days after the Thunder started the season 24-1. The Thunder overwhelm most teams with their depth, defensive pressure, and quickness, but the Spurs effectively counter with their own depth, their ability to handle defensive pressure, and a horde of perimeter players who are able to contend with the Thunder's quickness. 

The Spurs are led by Victor Wembanyama, who has become more productive, efficient, and focused, slashing his three point field goal attempts per game from 8.8 last season to 4.1 this season; he is a force in the paint at both ends of the court, and the only question about him is if he will be durable enough to be a dominant player throughout the long regular season and then in a deep playoff run. Wembanyama is remarkably versatile, but it is worth noting--as ESPN's Jay Bilas did during the game telecast and as I did during Wembanyama's rookie season--that more than 40 years ago Ralph Sampson had similar talent in an era when big men were deployed in a much more restricted fashion than they are now.

The Thunder's early season success is remarkable not only considering that championship teams have to fight complacency, but also because 2025 All-Star Jalen Williams missed the season's first 19 games due to injury. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is the most statistically efficient 30-plus ppg scorer in NBA history, averaging 32.5 ppg with shooting splits of .557/.435/.884 while committing just 2.0 turnovers per game--and he also rebounds (4.8 rpg), passes (team-high 6.6 apg), and defends (1.5 spg). The Thunder rank first in points allowed, first in defensive field goal percentage, first in turnovers forced, second in steals, second in points scored, and third in field goal percentage. They rank 12th in rebounding after ranking 11th last season; they are not a physically overpowering team, but they are so dominant in most other categories that their relative lack of physical presence in the paint does not seem to matter.

2) The Spurs led 41-36 at the end of the first quarter. The Thunder usually win the possession game by forcing a high number of turnovers while committing few turnovers, but in the first quarter the Spurs had just two turnovers while shooting 15-21 (.714) from the field. The pace slowed a bit in the second quarter, but the Spurs again came out on top, 28-24, to lead 69-60 at halftime. De'Aaron Fox scored 21 first half points on 9-11 field goal shooting, Stephon Castle added 13 points on 5-8 field goal shooting, and Wembanyama came off of the bench (because he is still on a minutes restriction) to contribute nine points, six rebounds, and one blocked shot in 12 minutes. Gilgeous-Alexander led the Thunder with 16 points on 5-9 field goal shooting.

When the Thunder don't force turnovers they are not able to get easy scoring opportunities, which compels them to rely on their halfcourt offense--and their halfcourt offense can be balky, particularly when confronted with Wembanyama lurking as a mobile and long-armed rim protector. The Thunder had just five fast break points in the first half, and they shot 23-48 (.479) from the field. Conversely, the Spurs turned their stops into easy scoring opportunities, producing 15 fast break points in the first half.

The Spurs won the third quarter, 26-19, and led 95-80 heading into the fourth quarter. They committed just two turnovers while holding the Thunder to 7-26 (.269) field goal shooting with just two fast break points. No Spur scored more than five points, but seven Spurs scored during the third quarter.

The fourth quarter was more of the same: the Thunder had no fast break points and they shot just 7-21 (.333) from the field. The Thunder won the quarter, 23-22, but the Spurs led by double digits for most of the quarter--and never by less than nine points--while cruising to victory. Often, the Thunder's starters sit out the last part of the fourth quarter because the Thunder are winning comfortably, but in this game they sat out the final two minutes because the game was out of reach.

It cannot necessarily be said that the Spurs have created a blueprint to beat the Thunder, because a blueprint is a plan that can be used by anyone to build something; the Spurs' "blueprint" works because of the way that they integrate Wembanyama's talents with a corps of athletic perimeter players, so a team would have to have similar personnel to effectively utilize the "blueprint." Nevertheless, the Spurs have shown that the Thunder are not unbeatable, and that alone provides hope to other contending teams. Basketball, like many sports, is about matchups, and this matchup is clearly difficult for the Thunder.  

3) Fox scored a game-high 29 points on 12-19 field goal shooting. Castle contributed 19 points, a game-high seven assists, and four rebounds. Wembanyama finished with 19 points, a team-high 11 rebounds, and a +13 plus/minus number in 26 minutes. 

Gilgeous-Alexander led the Thunder with 22 points and he did not commit a turnover, but he shot just 7-19 from the field. Isaiah Hartenstein chipped in 13 points and a game-high tying 12 rebounds. Jalen Williams (12 points on 5-13 field goal shooting plus a team-high six assists), Alex Caruso (12 points on 3-13 field goal shooting), and Chet Holmgren (10 points, game-high tying 12 rebounds) all had quiet games by their standards.

Game Three: Golden State Warriors 126, Dallas Mavericks 116 

1) The Golden State Warriors began this season with high hopes after closing last season with a 21-7 sprint before losing to the Minnesota Timberwolves in the second round; the Warriors believed that they could have won that series if Stephen Curry had not suffered a series-ending injury in game one. This season, the Warriors entered Christmas Day with a 15-15 record that stamps them as a Play-In Tournament team, not a championship contender. Jimmy Butler's arrival late last season provided a boost, but the consistent pattern in his career is that there is a short shelf life before either he becomes disenchanted with his team or his team becomes disenchanted with him. Butler's numbers this season are solid but they are not translating into wins.

The Dallas Mavericks have been in turmoil since they traded franchise cornerstone Luka Doncic to the L.A. Lakers for Anthony Davis; the negative repercussions--on and off the court--from that baffling move led to the firing earlier this season of general manager Nico Harrison. The Mavericks lucked out in the 2025 Draft Lottery, receiving the number one overall pick. They cashed in that prize for Cooper Flagg, who needed just a few games to adjust to the NBA before emerging as a high level performer; he averaged 24.1 ppg, 6.2 rpg, and 4.5 apg in his first 10 games in December with shooting splits of .527/.308/.809, and Flagg broke LeBron James' record for being the youngest player to score 40 points in an NBA game.

The injury-riddled Mavericks started the season 3-10 before going 9-9 in their next 18 games. If Kyrie Irving--who has not yet played this season because he is rehabbing from the torn left ACL he suffered last season--and Anthony Davis are healthy and productive down the stretch then the Mavericks could reach the playoffs via the Play-In Tournament. 

2) Other than trailing 6-4 at the 10:05 mark of the first quarter and four ties later in that quarter, the Warriors led for the entire game, and they led by double digits for most of the second half. Davis scored three points in 11 minutes before being shut down with a groin injury; the Mavericks were +6 during those minutes, and -16 the rest of the way, which is the story of the post-Doncic Mavericks in microcosm: Davis has played well in brief spurts, but he is injured and out of action more often than he plays.

The Warriors shot just .444 (44-99) from the field, but they had 13 offensive rebounds while the Mavericks had just three, and the Warriors made 14 three pointers while holding the Mavericks (who do not shoot a lot of three pointers) to four three pointers. Those extra possessions and extra three pointers proved to be the difference.

3) Curry, who has generally not played well on Christmas Day, scored a team-high 23 points on 6-18 field goal shooting (including 2-10 from three point range). De'Anthony Melton scored 16 points off of the bench and had a game-best +19 plus/minus number in 24 minutes. Butler added 14 points, nine rebounds, and a game-high nine assists. Al Horford provided a boost with 14 points off of the bench in just 11 minutes. He shot 4-6 from three point range. Draymond Green contributed his usual triple single (seven points on 2-7 field goal shooting, five rebounds, three assists), he had more fouls (five) than field goals made, and he had a team-worst -9 plus/minus number. 

Flagg scored a game-high 27 points on 13-21 field goal shooting, and he had six rebounds plus a team-high five assists while committing just one turnover in 36 minutes. Flagg is 19 years old, but he plays with a mature poise that belies his youth. ESPN's Charles Barkley said that the Mavericks should trade Davis and Irving, and rebuild with Flagg as the franchise cornerstone; of course, the Mavericks would like to see how good their team is when that trio plays together before they dismantle their squad. Brandon Williams scored 26 points in 30 minutes off of the bench. 

Game Four: Houston Rockets 119, L.A. Lakers 96

1) The Houston Rockets lost four of their last five games prior to Christmas Day, including three overtime losses--two of which were against poor teams (New Orleans Pelicans and Sacramento Kings). The Rockets gave up at least 125 points in each of those four losses, and that skid dropped the Rockets to sixth in the Western Conference. Adding Kevin Durant has sparked the offense--the Rockets rank third in the league in scoring and fifth in field goal percentage after ranking 13th and 21st respectively in those categories last season--so if the Rockets can reestablish their typically strong defense then they will climb back toward the top of the Western Conference standings.

The L.A. Lakers entered Christmas Day in fourth place in the Western Conference, but back to back blowout losses to the L.A. Clippers (103-88) and Phoenix Suns (132-108) exposed the Lakers' poor defense, lack of overall team speed, and lack of hustle. The Lakers feasted on an easy early season schedule, but they rank 19th in points allowed and 26th in defensive field goal percentage, two indicators that they will struggle when they play good teams.

Luka Doncic has clearly surpassed LeBron James as the Lakers' best player, putting James in a position that he has never faced during his unprecedentedly long NBA career. Will he accept being the second option, or even sometimes the third option when Austin Reaves is cooking? James' success--both individually and from a team perspective--has been founded on his superior talent, not on his leadership and certainly not on being willing to accommodate any role short of being the man in charge and the focus of attention. James has a checkered history at best as a leader, including quitting in the playoffs at least twice as the best player on a championship contending team (versus Boston in the 2010 playoffs and versus Dallas in the 2011 NBA Finals). Even after James won two titles with the Miami Heat, his contentious departure from Miami inspired Pat Riley to refer to "No more smiling faces with hidden agendas," a clear reference to James' divisive impact on the team. 

James is a major part of the problem defensively, and because Doncic and Reaves are also subpar defenders it will be difficult to put all three players on the court at the same time, particularly against good teams. Will coach J.J. Redick bench James at key moments for a superior defender if Doncic and Reaves are carrying the load offensively? Considering that James and Redick were podcast buddies before the Lakers hired Redick, this will be a fascinating dynamic to watch--and, despite what Redick and his media friends insist, Redick is not a savvy or even above average NBA coach, which places the Lakers at a disadvantage.

According to Redick, there is no way that the Lakers' defensive shortcomings are his fault; he recently told media members that the Lakers practice all of the right rotations, so it is up to the players to do better. In short, he is a defensive genius, and his players are fools. The players must love how their coach stands up for them, and they'll love it even more during the inevitable losing streak that will happen once the Lakers start playing good teams. 

2) The Rockets exploited the Lakers' poor defense to race out to an 18-8 lead by the 6:48 mark of the first quarter, and they never looked back. By the end of the first quarter, the Rockets led 37-25, and James had a -19 plus/minus number, the worst by far of any player from either team. The Lakers won the second quarter, 28-26, to trail 63-53 at halftime, but the Rockets opened the third quarter with a 20-7 blitz to remove any doubt about the game's inevitable outcome. The Rockets' lead never dipped below 15 points the rest of the way. 

3) Amen Thompson scored a game-high 26 points on 12-19 field goal shooting, and he had a game-high tying +26 plus/minus number. Kevin Durant had 25 points on 8-14 field goal shooting while dishing a game-high nine assists, and amassing a game-high tying +26 plus/minus number. Jabari Smith Jr. scored 16 points and grabbed seven rebounds. Alperen Sengun added 14 points, a game-high 12 rebounds, and four assists as the Rockets outrebounded the Lakers 48-25. 

Doncic led the Lakers with 25 points, seven assists, and a team-high tying five rebounds; when your point guard is your leading rebounder with five rebounds, that is not good. James finished with 18 points, five assists, two rebounds, and a game-worst -33 plus/minus number. James and starting center Deandre Ayton had four rebounds in a combined 69 minutes, less than reserve Jarred Vanderbilt had (five) in 26 minutes. Reaves scored 12 points in 15 minutes before being sidelined by a calf injury.

Game Five: Denver Nuggets 142, Minnesota Timberwolves 138, OT

1) Nikola Jokic continues to move up in the all-time rankings. He recently broke Kareem Abdul-Jabbar's record for career assists by a center (5660), and after this game he is two triple doubles away from tying Oscar Robertson (181) for second on the career list behind Russell Westbrook (207). Jokic has 15 triple doubles in 30 games this season, and in nine of those games he had a triple double before the end of the third quarter.

2) Prior to this game, the Denver Nuggets beat the Minnesota Timberwolves by double digits in each of their first two games this season, which is noteworthy because the Timberwolves have been the better team for the past two seasons.

In the 2024 playoffs, the Timberwolves dethroned the reigning NBA champion Nuggets by using a large lineup featuring Karl-Anthony Towns, Rudy Gobert, and Naz Reid; the Timberwolves overcame a 20 point third quarter deficit to win game seven in Denver. After losing to the Dallas Mavericks in the 2024 Western Conference Finals, the Timberwolves traded Towns to New York for Julius Randle. The Timberwolves lost to the Oklahoma City Thunder in the 2025 Western Conference Finals. The Timberwolves entered Christmas Day in fifth place in the Western Conference, a disappointing position for a team with championship aspirations.

The Nuggets lost in the second round of the playoffs in each of the two seasons after winning the 2023 NBA title. They entered Christmas Day in third place in the Western Conference behind the Oklahoma City Thunder and the surging San Antonio Spurs. 

3) This game featured a sensational performance by Jokic, and big runs by both teams. Jokic erupted for 18 points, five rebounds, four assists, and two blocked shots in the first quarter, but the Nuggets only led 32-29 because Anthony Edwards countered with 14 points and three steals.

The Timberwolves used a 17-0 run in a little over five minutes to take a 46-38 second quarter lead, but the Nuggets closed the second quarter with a 19-9 run to end the half with a 57-55 lead.

The Nuggets opened the third quarter with a 22-8 burst extend their lead to 79-63. The Timberwolves countered with a 7-0 run in a little over a minute, but the Nuggets pulled away again, and led 92-78 entering the fourth quarter. Jokic had 32 points, 14 rebounds, 13 assists, and two blocked shots in 31 minutes through the first three quarters while shooting 10-13 from the field and 10-10 from the free throw line.

Non-Jokic minutes have been troublesome for the Nuggets in recent years--and were disastrous in the second quarter of this game--but the Nuggets held firm in the fourth quarter without Jokic and led 101-89 when Jokic rejoined the fray at the 6:53 mark. 

In an unexpected twist, the Timberwolves erased the Nuggets' lead with Jokic on the court. Jokic missed three straight shots, and the Timberwolves converted those empty possessions into points to pull within 106-102 before Jokic answered with a step back jumper. The Timberwolves called a timeout, and then Edwards drained a three pointer to cut Denver's lead to 108-105. After a Jamal Murray miss, Edwards' strong drive pulled the Timberwolves to within one point, but Murray hit a three pointer to give the Nuggets a 111-107 lead. Spencer Jones' putback put the Nuggets ahead 113-107 before Murray fouled a triple-teamed Edwards while Edwards was attempting a three pointer. Edwards made all three free throws. The Timberwolves converted a Murray turnover into a Jaden McDaniels fast break layup to cut the margin to 113-112 with 4.8 seconds remaining. Jokic hit two free throws with 3.6 seconds left, and the Timberwolves took their last timeout to set up their final shot--an Edwards turnaround three pointer from the left baseline to tie the score at 115 with 1.1 seconds left! Jokic's full court heave missed the mark, sending the game to what turned out to be a frenetic overtime.

Edwards opened the overtime with four straight points--a bank shot followed by two free throws--and then Donte DiVincenzo made two free throws to put the Timberwolves up, 121-115. Edwards delivered what seemed to be a dagger three pointer to give the Timberwolves their biggest lead of the game, 124-115. Jokic and Tim Hardaway Jr. each hit a three pointer to pull the Nuggets to within 124-121, followed by Julius Randle making two free throws. Jokic's three pointer from the right wing trimmed the Timberwolves' lead to 126-124, and then he tied the game with a one-handed runner in the paint. Jokic was called for a loose ball fall on Rudy Gobert, but the Nuggets won a coach's challenge, resulting in Gobert being called for his sixth foul and Jokic shooting two free throws. Jokic made both to give the Nuggets a 128-126 lead before Edwards' drive tied the score again. Before you could blink, Murray's three pointer handed the Nuggets their biggest lead yet in the overtime, 131-128. A loose ball foul sent Jokic to the free throw line, but he only made one out of two. Edwards answered with a two-handed dunk, but Edwards was called for a delay of game technical foul. Jokic made the free throw to put the Nuggets up 133-130. After a loose ball foul, Edwards got a second technical foul (and automatic ejection), resulting in Murray splitting a pair of free throws to put the Nuggets ahead 134-130. Jokic made both loose ball foul free throws, and McDaniels immediately answered with a three pointer to trim the margin to 136-133. Peyton Watson made two free throws, which DiVincenzo neutralized with a layup. Jokic reestablished a five point lead, 140-135, by making two free throws. Reckless fouling almost cost the Nuggets, as Spencer Jones fouled Bones Hyland behind the three point line. Hyland only made one free throw, inexplicably missing the third intentionally but failing to hit the rim on the attempt, thus giving possession to Denver. Jokic made two free throws, and then Hyland closed out the scoring with a layup. 

The Nuggets won despite being without the services of three injured starters: Aaron Gordon, Cam Johnson, and Christian Braun.

4) Jokic finished with game-high totals in points (56), rebounds (16) and assists (15) while shooting 15-21 from the field and 22-23 from the free throw line. His 18 overtime points broke Stephen Curry’s record (17, set in 2016). Murray had 35 points on 12-32 field goal shooting, and he dished for 10 assists.

Edwards led the Timberwolves with 44 points on 14-25 field goal shooting. Randle added 32 points, seven rebounds, and six assists. Gobert contributed nine points, a team-high 12 rebounds, and a game-high six blocked shots while amassing a game-best +18 plus/minus number.  

Analysis of Previous Christmas Day Quintupleheaders:

Notes About the 2024 Christmas Day Quintupleheader (2024)

Notes About the 2023 Christmas Day Quintupleheader (2023)

Notes About the 2022 Christmas Day Quintupleheader (2022)

Notes About the 2021 Christmas Day Quintupleheader (2021)

Notes About the 2020 Christmas Day Quintupleheader (2020)

Notes About the 2019 Christmas Day Quintupleheader (2019)

Several Stars Shine During Christmas Day Quintupleheader (2018)

Christmas Day Quintupleheader Recap (2012)

Comments and Notes About the Christmas Day Quintupleheader (2011)

Thoughts and Observations About the Christmas Day Quintupleheader (2010)

Labels: Cleveland Cavaliers, Dallas Mavericks, Denver Nuggets, Golden State, Houston Rockets, L.A. Lakers, Minnesota Timberwolves, New York Knicks, Oklahoma City Thunder, San Antonio Spurs

posted by David Friedman @ 1:52 AM

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Early Season Notes About Some High Profile Teams

It is way too early to make any definitive--or even preliminary--conclusions about the just-started NBA season, but here are a few observations about what we have seen so far, starting with last season's "Final Four" teams and then looking at several other teams that receive a lot of attention.

Oklahoma City Thunder: The Thunder started the season 4-0 without the injured Jalen Williams, who made the All-NBA Third Team and the All-Star team last season. Their margin for error and their victory margins are much smaller than last season; the Thunder currently have a point differential of 7.7 ppg, which is very good by normal standards but just pedestrian compared to the all-time single season record that they set last season (12.9 ppg). The Thunder are scoring 121.0 ppg, just above the 120.5 ppg that they averaged last season, but four games is a small sample size and two of the Thunder's four games went to double overtime. In their two regulation length wins, they scored 117 points and 101 points.

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is carrying an even bigger load than he did last season when he won the scoring title, the regular season MVP, the Magic Johnson Western Conference Finals MVP, and the NBA Finals MVP; he joined Michael Jordan as the only players in the last 50 years to total at least 120 points in the first three games of a season, and he is the only player to accomplish this feat while shooting at least .500 from the field. Gilgeous-Alexander is also just the third player to score at least 20 points in at least 75 straight games, with his streak only trailing one streak by Oscar Robertson (79) and two streaks by Wilt Chamberlain (96 and 126).

Indiana Pacers: This will be a challenging season for the Pacers, who are without both injured All-Star point guard Tyrese Haliburton and long-time starting center Myles Turner, who signed with the Milwaukee Bucks last summer. The Pacers started 0-3, competing hard in a double overtime loss to the Thunder in the season opener before being blown out by Memphis (128-103) and losing a close game to Minnesota (114-110). It should be noted that Minnesota's best player, Anthony Edwards, played only three minutes in that game.

Last season, Haliburton led a high octane offense that ranked seventh in the league in scoring; through three games, the Pacers rank 20th in scoring, and an alarming 28th in points allowed.  

The Pacers are well-coached by Rick Carlisle, and their identity is to play hard, but they have lost too much talent to be a playoff team this season. They are relying heavily on Pascal Siakam, who is doing all that he can to keep the team afloat (26.0 ppg, 10.3 rpg, 6.0 apg). Bennedict Mathurin averaged 31.0 ppg in two games, but he suffered a toe injury in the second game and sat out the Pacers' third game. It is uncertain when he will return to action.

New York Knicks: The Knicks opened the season by beating the Cleveland Cavaliers 119-111, and then they defeated the depleted Boston Celtics before losing to the Miami Heat, who are missing injured All-Star guard Tyler Herro. The Knicks are averaging 110.3 ppg and rank second in the league with 46.3 three point field goal attempts per game; last season, the Knicks scored 115.8 ppg and averaged 34.1 three point field goal attempts per game (27th in the league). 

The Knicks replaced coach Tom Thibodeau with Mike Brown. Although the Knicks are scoring a bit less so far this season, their offense appears to be running at a faster pace and definitely involves more three point shooting. Last season, the Knicks reached the Eastern Conference Finals for the first time since 2000, so this season is NBA Finals or bust for the Knicks.

Minnesota Timberwolves: Minnesota started 2-1, but two-time All-NBA Second Team selection Anthony Edwards played just three minutes in the third game (a 114-110 win versus Indiana) before suffering a hamstring injury that will keep him out of action for at least a week. Last night, the Timberwolves sans Edwards fell to the Denver Nuggets, 127-114. The Timberwolves started 6-6 last season and recovered to earn the sixth seed before advancing to the Western Conference Finals for the second consecutive year. Julius Randle is averaging 25.0 ppg, 6.8 rpg, and 5.3 apg. The Timberwolves cannot reasonably expect to reach the Western Conference Finals again from the sixth seed, so it is important for them to win some games while Edwards is out, and then pick up the pace after he returns.

Cleveland Cavaliers: After losing 119-111 to the New York Knicks in the season opener for both teams, the Cavaliers reeled off three straight wins, capped by a 116-95 dismantling of the Detroit Pistons last night. The Pistons, tapped by some commentators as a potential Eastern Conference contender, fell to 2-2 and trailed by as much as 35 points before the contest entered what Marv Albert would call "extensive garbage time."

Donovan Mitchell has been fantastic through four games, averaging 31.3 ppg while shooting .564 from the field. Four other Cavaliers are each averaging at least 13.5 ppg, picking up the slack for injured All-Star guard Darius Garland and injured three point specialist Max Strus. 

The Cavaliers have proven that they are an excellent regular season team--finishing first in the Eastern Conference last season with a 64-18 record after starting 15-0--but, like the Knicks, their season will be deemed successful based solely on making a deep playoff run. The Cavaliers have not advanced past the second round since LeBron James led them to the 2018 NBA Finals. 

Boston Celtics: Like the Indiana Pacers, the Boston Celtics face an uphill climb this season due to an injured star player and a depleted roster. Jayson Tatum is expected to miss the entire season, and key players Jrue Holiday, Kristaps Porzingis, Al Horford, and Luke Kornet are now playing for other teams. Tatum is one of the NBA's five best players, and one of the underrated aspects of his greatness is defense, particularly defensive rebounding. During their 1-3 start, the Celtics rank 17th in rebounding and 19th in defensive rebounding. Last season, the Celtics ranked eighth in rebounding and seventh in defensive rebounding, with Tatum leading the team in both categories by wide margins. 

The Celtics also miss Tatum's scoring and his shot creation; so far this season, the Celtics rank 23rd in field goal percentage, 25th in three point field goal percentage, and 10th in three point field goals made; last season, the Celtics ranked 19th, 10th, and first respectively in those categories, with Tatum being the primary scorer and primary facilitator.

Golden State Warriors: It feels like the Warriors are living on borrowed time with an aging, injury-prone roster, but so far they are 3-1, including an overtime victory versus a Denver team that looks like a championship contender. Casual fans and uninformed commentators tend to focus on Golden State's offense and specifically Stephen Curry's three point shooting, but the Warriors' championship teams were excellent defensively; their most recent title-winning team in 2022 ranked second in defensive field goal percentage and third in points allowed. The Warriors currently rank 24th in points allowed and 28th in defensive field goal percentage, and if they continue at that pace on defense then they are unlikely to be a contending team regardless of how many three pointers Curry makes. 

Curry is leading the league in free throw percentage (he is perfect in 22 attempts), three point field goals made (20) and three point field goals attempted (44) while averaging 29.0 ppg. He has not averaged 29.0 ppg since the 2022-23 season, so it will be interesting to see if he can score at that level for a full season as a soon to be 38 year old. Jimmy Butler is averaging 21.5 ppg--which would be his highest scoring average since 2022-23--and he said that he plans to have a higher free throw percentage than Curry this season. Butler's free throw percentage so far (.881) is a career-high but would be the second worst free throw percentage of Curry's career! 

Denver Nuggets: Nikola Jokic has led the Denver Nuggets to a championship and two Western Conference Finals appearances even though he has yet to play with a current All-Star; that streak of non-All-Star teammates may end this season if Jamal Murray (30.3 ppg) and Aaron Gordon (25.3 ppg) remain healthy and productive. Jokic just joined Oscar Robertson (1960-61) and Russell Westbrook (2020-21) on the list of players who had a triple double in each of the first three games of a season; last night, Jokic had 25 points, 19 rebounds, and 10 assists in what Peacock's Grant Hill called a "quiet" performance as the Nuggets beat the Minnesota Timberwolves, 127-114. "Quiet" for Jokic would be a career-best loud thunderstorm for most NBA players.  

Denver went 0-4 versus Minnesota last season after losing 4-3 to the Timberwolves in the second round of the 2024 playoffs, but a major caveat about yesterday's game is that--as noted above--Anthony Edwards did not play due to a hamstring injury that is expected to sideline him for two weeks. 

An overtime loss to the Warriors followed by wins against the Phoenix Suns and the Timberwolves sans Edwards is a small sample size, but the Nuggets should be encouraged not only by the health/productivity of Murray and Gordon but also by the solid contributions made by newly acquired players Tim Hardaway Jr., Cameron Johnson, Jonas Valanciunas, and Bruce Brown. Throughout Jokic's career, the Nuggets have tended to get destroyed when he is out of the game, so if the rebuilt bench can even just tread water while Jokic rests then Jokic, Murray, and Gordon will be fresher and deadlier than ever. 

L.A. Lakers: The Lakers started the season without LeBron James, who will miss at least a few more weeks due to sciatica, and now they will be without Luka Doncic for at least a week due to a finger injury and a lower leg contusion. Doncic scored 43 points and then 49 points in the Lakers' first two games, setting a franchise record for most points by a player in the first two games of a season--but the Lakers went 1-1 in those games. Doncic is the only Laker other than Kobe Bryant to have at least 45 points, at least 10 rebounds, at least five assists, and at least five three point field goals made in the same regular season game. 

The Lakers are now 1-1 without Doncic. They beat the Sacramento Kings 127-120 as Austin Reaves erupted for a career-high 51 points along with 11 rebounds and nine assists, and last night they lost 122-108 to Portland with Reaves scoring a game-high 41 points and committing a game-high eight turnovers. 

Other than the health of their top two players, the key question for the Lakers is if they can consistently play good defense. They rank 14th in both points allowed and defensive field goal percentage. It is far from certain that having James and Doncic for all four games would have helped in either of those categories, as James is no longer a consistently good defensive player and Doncic is consistently a subpar defensive player. 

The Lakers cannot go very far just based on offense alone; in their 128-110 victory over Minnesota, the Lakers shot .592 (45-76) from the field, powered by Doncic shooting 14-23 (.609). That kind of shooting is great, but unsustainable. 

Deandre Ayton is averaging 15.8 ppg and 9.3 rpg while shooting .600 from the field, and the Lakers will need for him to continue to be productive.

The funny thing about any team featuring LeBron James is that James' media buddies will always promote the narrative that James does not have enough help. If James played with prime Kobe Bryant, prime Kareem Abdul-Jabbar, prime Magic Johnson, prime Elgin Baylor, and prime Jerry West, there is no doubt that Chris Haynes would report, "Sources tell me that Bryant shoots too much, Kareem only shoots skyhooks and his presence in the paint prevents LeBron from driving to the hoop, Magic's ball dominance prevents LeBron from doing what he does best, the Lakers would be better if Baylor stood in the corner to shoot three pointers, and West hurts the team because he can only dribble with his right hand." Dave McMenamin would add, "Anonymous players told me that Kareem is a 'vampire' who sucks the life out of the locker room, no one wants to play with Kobe, Magic smiles too much, Baylor is a ball hog, and West should let LeBron be the primary ballhandler." Brian Windhorst would conclude, "Ever since I followed LeBron around when he was in high school, LeBron has been a pass-first player who is a great leader. On this Lakers team, he is not able to pass or lead because Magic and West have taken those roles, and sources tell me that LeBron is not happy about this."

The current Lakers have two perimeter players beside James who can score 50 points or get 10 assists in a game, they have a center who rebounds, rolls to the hoop, and takes high percentage shots, and they have several solid role players, but after they once again fail to advance past the first round we will hear about how it is everyone's fault except LeBron's. The LeBron James era in L.A. has featured one "bubble" championship, one other Western Conference Finals appearance, three first round losses, and two seasons of missing the playoffs. James had an MVP-caliber/first ballot Hall of Fame player (Anthony Davis or Luka Doncic) in his prime next to him for all but one of those seasons. For the record, Kobe Bryant led the Lakers to back to back titles in 2009 and 2010 without a single teammate who made the NBA's 75th Anniversary Team. 

San Antonio Spurs: The Spurs and Thunder are the NBA's only 4-0 teams. Victor Wembanyama has posted MVP-level numbers: 31.0 ppg (seventh in the league), 13.8 rpg (fourth), 4.8 bpg (first), and .603 field goal percentage. The most encouraging number may be the number that decreased the most: he is attempting 2.8 three point field goals per game after attempting 8.8 three point field goals per game last season. Wembanyama looks bigger, stronger, and much more focused on attacking the paint. Accurate three point shooting is an important weapon for players and for teams, but championships are won on defense and in the paint, and Wembanyama is making strong contributions in those important areas.

The Spurs are unlikely to be a championship contender this season, but Wembanyama is showing signs of being the kind of player who can be the best player on a legit contender. He is receiving solid support from the team's other young players, including Stephon Castle (18.3 ppg, 6.0 rpg, 4.8 apg), Devin Vassell (16.8 ppg), rookie Dylan Harper (14.8 ppg, 4.8 apg), and Keldon Johnson (12.0 ppg on .643 field goal shooting).  

The Spurs rank first in points allowed and second in defensive field goal percentage. They could win at least 50 games if they can maintain those rankings for the entire season.

Labels: Boston Celtics, Cleveland Cavaliers, Denver Nuggets, Golden State Warriors, Indiana Pacers, L.A. Lakers, Minnesota Timberwolves, New York Knicks, Oklahoma City Thunder, San Antonio Spurs

posted by David Friedman @ 3:49 PM

6 comments

2025-26 Western Conference Preview

The Oklahoma City Thunder had a historic 68-14 regular season during which they broke the NBA's record for point differential previously held by the legendary 1972 L.A. Lakers. The Thunder also became the first team to lead the league in fewest turnovers committed and most turnovers forced. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander won his first scoring title (career-high 32.7 ppg), first regular season MVP, first championship, first Magic Johnson Western Conference Finals MVP, and first Bill Russell NBA Finals MVP while earning his third straight All-NBA First Team selection. Gilgeous-Alexander is the first player to win the scoring title, regular season MVP, and NBA Finals MVP in the same season since Shaquille O'Neal (2000), and he is just the fourth player in NBA history to win the scoring title, regular season MVP, and the championship in the same season, joining Kareem Abdul-Jabbar (1971), Michael Jordan (1991-92, 1996, 1998), and Shaquille O'Neal (2000); Julius Erving accomplished that triple crown feat twice in the ABA (1974, 1976).

The Thunder enter the 2025-26 season with their entire rotation intact from last season. They have no obvious weaknesses, and it would appear that the only things potentially standing in the way of a Thunder repeat are injuries or complacency. 

Last season, the Denver Nuggets tied for the third-fifth best record in the Western Conference, and were slotted into the fourth seed based on tiebreakers. They defeated the L.A. Clippers in seven games in the first round before falling to the powerful Thunder in seven games in the second round. Coach David Adelman, who replaced the fired Michael Malone late in the season, did an excellent job both tactically and in terms of connecting with his players. After losing to the Thunder, the Nuggets traded oft-injured Michael Porter Jr. to the Brooklyn Nets for Cam Johnson, and they also bolstered their depth by acquiring Bruce Brown (who was a member of their 2023 championship team), Tim Hardaway Jr., and Jonas Valanciunas.

Under the coaching of Ime Udoka, the Houston Rockets soared from 22-60 in 2022-23 to 41-41 in Udoka's first season and 52-30 last year. The Rockets led the NBA in rebounding while ranking sixth in both points allowed and defensive field goal percentage; their only weakness was a lack of shooting, which caused the offense to break down, particularly in half court sets. Enter Kevin Durant, who the Rockets acquired from Phoenix in the offseason as part of a seven team deal.  

This preview has the same format as my Eastern Conference Preview; the following eight teams are ranked based on their likelihood of making it to the NBA Finals:

1) Oklahoma City Thunder: It is easy and commonplace to overreact after a team wins a championship, and to buy the notion that more championships are sure to follow, even though the NBA has not had a repeat champion since Golden State's Kevin Durant-led super team won in 2017 and 2018. However, there are legitimate reasons to believe that the Thunder have a great chance to not only repeat but to win multiple titles in the next few years: (1) Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is a young superstar who plays hard at both ends of the court and he is just entering his prime; (2) the Thunder are elite at both ends of the court; (3) the Thunder are well positioned under the current salary cap rules to keep their core group intact.

Injuries can derail any contender. The Thunder enjoyed excellent health last season, but if that changes then they could fall back. Complacency is another problem that championship teams must battle. The Thunder seem to be focused and hungry, but we won't know for sure until they navigate an entire season as the reigning champion. 

Gilgeous-Alexander has averaged at least 30 ppg for three straight seasons, joining a small group of players that includes Giannis Antetokounmpo (2023-25), James Harden (2018-20), Michael Jordan (1987-93), Bob McAdoo (1974-76), Kareem Abdul-Jabbar (1971-73), Oscar Robertson (1964-67), and Wilt Chamberlain (1960-66). Gilgeous-Alexander has also posted back to back 25-5-5 seasons, which is one benchmark of all-around greatness.

In general, tanking does not work, and I would push back a bit against anyone who suggests that the Thunder tanked to the top. It is true that the Thunder tanked for two seasons, but before tanking they had already acquired Gilgeous-Alexander in a trade, which means they had their cornerstone player; that approach should be distinguished from the tanking practiced by the Philadelphia 76ers and other teams that stripped down their rosters while hoping to win the NBA Draft Lottery and obtain a franchise player with the number one overall pick. I am not a fan of the tanking that the Thunder did, but there is no denying that it worked, even though it should be emphasized that any team that tanks without already having a player like Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is likely to end up in the same sorry state inhabited by the 76ers and other tanking teams. 

Jalen Williams--whose draft rights were acquired in the same trade that brought Gilgeous-Alexander to Oklahoma City--set career highs in scoring (21.6 ppg), rebounding (5.3 rpg), assists (5.1 apg), steals (1.6 spg), and blocked shots (.7 bpg) while earning his first All-Star selection, first All-NBA selection (Third Team), and first All-Defensive Team selection (Second Team). He posted similar numbers (21.4 ppg, 5.5 rpg, 4.8 apg, 1.4 spg, .4 bpg) during the Thunder's playoff run, capped off by a 40 point outburst in the Thunder's 120-109 NBA Finals game five win versus the Indiana Pacers. It should be emphasized that the Thunder acquired their two best players via trade, not by tanking.

Two offseason acquisitions paid huge dividends for the Thunder: Isaiah Hartenstein (team-high 10.7 rpg) ensured that the Thunder would no longer be pushed around in the paint, and Alex Caruso provided veteran leadership plus ball-hawking defense.

2) Denver Nuggets: The Nuggets pushed the eventual champion Oklahoma City Thunder to seven games in the second round, and then they improved their roster by acquiring Cam Johnson, Bruce Bowen, Tim Hardaway Jr., and Jonas Valanciunas while only losing Michael Porter Jr. and Russell Westbrook from their core rotation. The Nuggets' added depth should not only help in terms of regular season seeding but also in terms of not losing ground on the scoreboard during the playoffs when Nikola Jokic is on the bench.

Jokic is a generational player who has performed at an MVP-caliber level for the past five seasons, with no end in sight. He won the regular season MVP in 2021, 2022, and 2024, and he finished second in MVP voting in 2023 and 2025. Last season, Jokic averaged a triple double with a career-high 29.6 ppg (third in the league), 12.7 rpg (third in the league), and a career-high 10.2 apg (second in the league). The only other players who have averaged a triple double for a season are Oscar Robertson (1961-62; he also averaged an aggregate triple double for his first five NBA seasons), and Russell Westbrook (2017-19, 21; he averaged an aggregate triple double for the five seasons spanning 2017-21). 

Denver's success will depend on Jokic's continued greatness plus the health/availability of Jamal Murray (career-high 21.4 ppg in 67 games last season) and Aaron Gordon (14.7 ppg in 51 games last season), and the effective integration of the newcomers into Denver's offensive and defensive systems--but an injury-depleted Denver team without much bench strength pushed the Thunder to seven games in the playoffs, so a healthy and deeper Denver team should be a legitimate championship contender.

3) Houston Rockets: The Rockets made one of the offseason's biggest moves, acquiring Kevin Durant from the Phoenix Suns as part of a seven team deal in which the Rockets gave up Jalen Green, Dillon Brooks, and multiple draft picks (including the 10th overall selection in the 2025 NBA Draft). Durant is 37 years old and six years removed from the right Achilles tendon rupture that knocked him out of the 2019 NBA Finals and cost him the entire 2019-20 season, but he is still a very productive player. Last season, he averaged 26.6 ppg (just a shade under his 27.2 ppg career average) with shooting splits of .527/.430/.839--but he missed 20 games, and his Phoenix Suns did not qualify for the playoffs. Durant's efficient offensive game is just what the offensively challenged Rockets need after finishing 21st in field goal percentage and 21st in three point field goal percentage.

The Rockets' best player last season was versatile young center Alperen Sengun, who earned his first All-Star selection by averaging 19.1 ppg, a career-high 10.3 rpg (ninth in the league), and 4.9 apg. Amen Thompson averaged 14.1 ppg, made the All-Defensive First Team, and finished fifth in Defensive Player of the Year voting.

Starting point guard Fred VanVleet tore his right ACL during a September 2025 workout, and will likely miss the entire 2025-26 season, putting the onus on Thompson and Reed Sheppard to pick up the slack in an already thin backcourt rotation. Thompson worked on his playmaking this summer in anticipation of making greater contributions in that area even before VanVleet got hurt, and now that work will be put to the test. Sheppard only averaged 4.5 ppg and 1.3 apg in 12.5 mpg last season as a rookie, but the Rockets will need more minutes and production from him unless/until they acquire another point guard.

4) Minnesota Timberwolves: Anthony Edwards unleashed his inner Stephen Curry last season, setting career highs in three point field goals made (320, first in the league), three point field goals attempted (811, first in the league), and three point field goal percentage (.395). His evolution into a long range bomber is a missed blessing; there is some value in him being able to stretch the floor, but it would be preferable for the Timberwolves if someone else stretched the floor to enable Edwards to attack the hoop with impunity, because many players can learn to shoot but precious few can finish at the rim the way that Edwards can.

The Timberwolves lost in the Western Conference Finals for the second consecutive season, and for the second consecutive season they fell in just five games. Reaching the Western Conference Finals is no longer enough for this team, and getting routed again is unacceptable, but the sad reality for the Timberwolves and their fans is that the Thunder are still a better team, the Nuggets and Rockets made clear offseason improvements, and the Timberwolves stood pat.

Running it back with a good team is commendable, particularly in an era during which teams often have little patience for development and growth, but the Timberwolves will need a lot of development and growth to surpass the Thunder, Nuggets, and Rockets--and they will have to work hard to stay ahead of several other Western Conference teams as well.

5) Golden State Warriors: The Warriors were 25-26 and going nowhere fast last season before they traded for Jimmy Butler, who became the fastest player in franchise history to amass at least 350 points, at least 100 rebounds, and at least 100 assists, doing so in 21 games. The Warriors finished 48-34, earned the seventh seed by beating the Memphis Grizzlies in the Play-In Tournament, and then upset the Houston Rockets in the first round before losing 4-1 to the Minnesota Timberwolves. 

Stephen Curry sustained a series-ending hamstring injury in game one of the Minnesota series. His 24.5 ppg scoring average last season was his lowest full-season scoring average since he scored 23.8 ppg in 2014-15. He has not made the All-NBA First Team since 2021. Curry will be 38 years old by the time the 2026 playoffs begin, and it is fair to wonder how healthy and how productive he can be at this advanced stage of his career; basketball aging is different for agile 6-3 players than it is for big, strong players who can use their height, length, and strength to compensate for diminishing athleticism and quickness.

Butler is an impact player who has a demonstrably limited shelf life; he lifts his teams in the short run, but is rarely happy in the long run. The Warriors have a short timeline with the aging Curry and Draymond Green, so perhaps these "golden guys" can make a deep playoff run, but none of them have reached the NBA Finals since 2023, and two years is a long time for players who are well into their 30s.

The extended Jonathan Kuminga saga highlights the internal instability that has characterized this team for many years; the Warriors finally signed Kuminga, but he is clearly as dissatisfied with the organization as Coach Steve Kerr is with him, so it would not be surprising if the Warriors deal him in a midseason trade. The Warriors' improbable but impressive 2022 championship is a bright spot that makes it easy to overlook the fact that since Kevin Durant left in 2019 the Warriors have missed the playoffs three times and lost in the second round twice.

Championship or bust may be this team's mindset, but second round and sayonara is likely the best case scenario. 

6) L.A. Lakers: It will be interesting to see if the LeBron James public relations machine known as ESPN hypes up the Lakers as championship contenders, or if they give James the opportunity for a soft landing by lowering expectations. It is not clear what the Lakers expected when they plucked James from Cleveland in 2018, but it is reasonable to suggest that they expected more than one championship and it is certain that they did not expect to fail to advance past the first round five times in seven years. 

After James engineered Anthony Davis' arrival in L.A. in 2019, James and the Lakers thought that they had built a super team that could both win now and be positioned for a promising long-term future with Davis as the centerpiece after James retired. In the wake of the Lakers trading Davis to Dallas for Luka Doncic, we can close the book on the James-Davis era in L.A.: they won the 2020 "bubble title," and after that they had one Western Conference Finals appearance, two first round losses, and one season during which they did not even qualify for the Play-In Tournament. 

James claims that he had no idea that the Lakers planned to swap Davis for Doncic, but that is difficult to believe considering that James seems to have a heavy hand in every personnel (and coaching) move that the Lakers have made since he joined the team. Doncic, who earned five straight All-NBA First Team selections before missing the cut in his first season in L.A., led the Mavericks to the 2024 NBA Finals and is a more dynamic offensive weapon than Davis ever was. The Lakers went 18-10 during the regular season with Doncic in the lineup as Doncic became the fastest player in Lakers history to amass at least 700 points, at least 200 rebounds, and at least 200 assists; he averaged 28.2 ppg, 8.1 rpg, and 7.5 apg as a Laker in the regular season, and he averaged 30.2 ppg, 7.0 rpg, and 5.8 apg as the third seeded Lakers lost 4-1 to sixth seeded Minnesota in the first round.

The Mavericks traded Doncic because they were purportedly concerned about his conditioning, and it has been widely reported that during this past summer Doncic trained harder than he ever has to enter this season in the best shape of his life. James is still remarkably productive--averaging 24.4 ppg, 8.2 apg, and 7.8 rpg last season as a 40 year old to earn his 21st All-Star selection and his 21st selection to the All-NBA Team (extending his all-time records in both categories)--but the Lakers are Doncic's team now. This is the first time in James' career that he is clearly not the best player on his own team, and it will be interesting to see how Doncic and James navigate these uncharted waters.

During the Lakers' cameo playoff appearance, the Timberwolves bludgeoned them in the paint, so the Lakers addressed that weakness by signing Deandre Ayton, who was Phoenix' starting center when the Suns reached the 2021 NBA Finals but is viewed as a low motor player despite posting career averages of 16.4 ppg and 10.5 rpg. If Ayton rebounds, defends, and serves as a pick and roll lob threat for Doncic then the Lakers could be quite good, but Ayton has not played in at least 70 games in a season since his 2018-19 rookie campaign, and he played in just 40 games for Portland last season; if Ayton is unavailable or indifferent then the Lakers do not have enough size or defensive presence to match up with the elite teams.

Coach J.J. Redick acts and talks like he has all of the answers, but Redick was often outcoached last season, and before the Lakers acquired Doncic they had a mediocre offense and an atrocious defense. The Lakers improved at both ends of the court down the stretch, but Minnesota's Chris Finch coached circles around Redick in the first round. It is baffling that the Lakers recently extended Redick's contract--which had three years remaining--for an additional two years. James and Redick are friends who used to do a podcast together, so maybe securing a long-term payday for Redick is a gift from James who, presumably, will not be playing five years from now; there is no rational reason to extend Redick other than keeping James happy, and as a result of this decision the Lakers will be paying Redick long after James retires, even if Redick is not coaching the team by that time.

If Doncic and James stay healthy and Ayton stays focused, the Lakers could win 50 games again, but in the tough Western Conference that might not be good enough to claim the third seed again; the Lakers tied for third-fifth in the West with a 50-32 record but received the third seed on tiebreaks, so they could go 50-32 in 2025-26 and end up in the bottom half of the playoff bracket.

The Lakers may have a 10 game winning streak that puts ESPN's perpetual hype machine into overdrive, but when the going gets tough in the playoffs the Lakers will lose in the first round for the third straight year. 

7) San Antonio Spurs: There are no more excuses for missing the playoffs. The Spurs have a generational talent--the 2024 NBA Rookie of the Year Victor Wembanyama--plus they have veteran former All-Star guard De'Aaron Fox, and they also have 2025 NBA Rookie of the Year Stephon Castle. I am skeptical about the long term prospects of teams that tanked--and I am not convinced that the Spurs are on a championship track--but the Spurs have too much talent to not at least qualify for the playoffs.

The Spurs face the same challenges that young teams often have to overcome: poor shot selection (the Spurs ranked 17th in field goal percentage), lack of physicality (they ranked 19th in rebounding), and lack of defensive focus (they ranked 23rd in points allowed and 24th in defensive field goal percentage). They are not going to fix all of those problems in one season, but with Wembanyama anchoring the paint defensively and Fox running the show offensively, the Spurs should surpass the 40 win mark for the first time since 2018-19, the last season that they qualified for the playoffs. 

8) Dallas Mavericks: Kyrie Irving will miss most if not all of the season after tearing his left ACL late last season, but the cupboard is not bare; the Mavericks have Anthony Davis, the big man duo of Daniel Gafford/Dereck Lively II, and number one overall draft pick Cooper Flagg, who is expected to make an immediate contribution as a scorer, playmaker, and solid defensive player.

Davis had offseason surgery for a detached retina that he suffered last season, but he is not expected to miss any time this season as a result of the procedure. Davis averaged 24.7 ppg, 11.6 rpg, 3.5 apg, and 2.2 bpg last season, but he played in just 51 games; he averaged 20.0 ppg, 10.1 rpg, 4.4 apg, and 2.2 bpg in nine games with the Mavericks after being traded from the Lakers for Luka Doncic.

Daniel Gafford averaged 12.3 ppg, 6.8 rpg, and 1.8 bpg while shooting .702 from the field, but he only played in 57 games. Lively matched Gafford's .702 field goal percentage while producing 8.7 ppg, 7.5 rpg, and 1.6 bpg in 36 games.  

All of that big production from the big men in a small number of games added up to a 39-43 record, and a 1-1 showing in the Play-In Tournament, which was not sufficient to qualify for the playoffs. 

Klay Thompson will presumably shift from small forward back to his natural shooting guard position to make room in the starting lineup for Flagg. Thompson shot at least .400 from three point range in each of his first eight seasons, but he shot at least .400 from beyond the arc just once in the past four seasons after missing two full seasons due to injury. Last season, he scored 14.0 ppg--his lowest average since his rookie season--with shooting splits of .412/.391/.905. 

D'Angelo Russell will run the point until Irving returns. Russell earned his lone All-Star selection in 2019--his fourth NBA season--but Dallas is his fourth team since 2023. In the 2024 playoffs, he scored 23 points in the Lakers' game two loss to Denver, and then scored zero points in the Lakers' game three loss; such wild fluctuations explain both why teams give up on him and why teams give him another chance.

With decent health and a productive Flagg, this team could be good; add Irving to the mix, and this team could be very good--but the sad reality for Mavericks fans is that Davis and Lively will both likely miss extended time due to injuries, Russell is unreliable at best, and it is rare for a rookie to be a significant contributor on a contending team. The only Dallas players who participated in at least 70 games last season are Spencer Dinwiddie--who signed with Charlotte in the offseason--and Thompson.

The teams that finish seventh through 10th in the regular season standings will participate in the Play-In Tournament. The above eight teams are the teams that I predict will qualify for the playoffs, regardless of what the final regular season standings are.

In 2019, the L.A. Clippers traded Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and a treasure trove of draft picks (one of which became All-Star Jalen Williams) for Paul George; this deal was one of Kawhi Leonard's many preconditions for joining the Clippers. It is a huge understatement to say that the Clippers' plan backfired; while Gilgeous-Alexander is the centerpiece of a potential Thunder dynasty (with Williams as a valuable second option), the Clippers have reached the Western Conference Finals just once in the Leonard era, they have lost in the first round in each of the past three seasons, and the NBA is now investigating possible salary cap circumvention connected with the Leonard signing. Instead of having a young superstar who has not even reached his prime yet, the Clippers have not just the oldest team in the NBA now but the oldest team in NBA history (average age: 33.2 years).

Leonard has played in at least 60 regular season games just once in his six seasons with the Clippers. The Clippers' two big free agent signings are Bradley Beal and Chris Paul. Beal fits right in with Leonard and the Clippers: he has played in at least 60 regular season games once since 2019. Paul has not participated in the playoffs since he averaged 12.4 ppg on .418 field goal shooting while playing in seven of Phoenix' 11 postseason games in 2023, but if the Clippers make the playoffs he will have an opportunity to extend his all-time record of five blown 2-0 series leads. The Clippers will miss the reliable Norm Powell, who they shipped to Miami for John Collins as part of a three team deal.

The Memphis Grizzlies were in second place in the Western Conference before a second half of the season collapse that led to the late season firing of Coach Taylor Jenkins and then (after a first round playoff loss to the Oklahoma City Thunder) the trade of Desmond Bane to the Orlando Magic for Cole Anthony, Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, and four first round draft picks. The Grizzlies appear to be stuck in the middle as a team that is not contending but also not committed to full scale rebuilding.

The Sacramento Kings fired 2023 NBA Coach of the Year Mike Brown after starting the season 13-18, and they went 27-24 the rest of the way under Doug Christie. During the season, the Kings traded De'Aaron Fox in a three team deal that brought Zach LaVine to Sacramento, reuniting him with his former Chicago teammate DeMar DeRozan. LaVine and DeRozan did not advance past the first round with the Bulls, and this "Chicago West" duo is unlikely to lead the Kings to the 2026 playoffs. 

The Portland Trail Blazers traded leading scorer Anfenee Simons (19.3 ppg) to Boston for Jrue Holiday, who has been a great complementary player for championship teams in Milwaukee (2021) and Boston (2024) but is now 35 years old and showing signs of decline at both ends of the court. They also signed prodigal son Damian Lillard, who will likely miss the entire season after suffering a torn left Achilles during the 2025 playoffs while playing for the Milwaukee Bucks, who stretched and waived his contract to clear space to sign Myles Turner. The continued development of Deni Avidja and Toumani Camara are bright spots in an otherwise cloudy picture. 

The Phoenix Suns hit the reset button after their "Big Three" of Kevin Durant, Devin Booker, and Bradley Beal failed to deliver a single playoff series win in two seasons, and did not even qualify for postseason play last year. The Suns parted ways with Durant, Beal, Tyus Jones, Jusuf Nurkic, and most of the veterans on the roster except for Booker. Core acquisitions include Jalen Green, Dillon Brooks, and Mark Williams, who will be the starting center if he can stay healthy. The Suns also replaced coach Mike Budenholzer with Jordan Ott, who has no NBA head coaching experience. The Suns were wise to break up an expensive team that did not even come close to contending for a championship, but the current roster is unlikely to make the playoffs in the loaded Western Conference. 

As has been the case for several seasons, the New Orleans Pelicans' hopes depend on Zion Williamson's health. Williamson has played in 30 games or less four times in six years, including missing the entire 2021-22 season due to injury, so it is reasonable to expect that (1) he will miss a lot of games and (2) the Pelicans will miss the playoffs.

The Utah Jazz pulled an Ace (Ace Bailey) instead of capturing the (Cooper) Flagg in the NBA Draft Lottery, providing yet another example of why tanking generally does not pay off. 

**********

Note:

I correctly picked five of the eight 2025 Western Conference playoff teams. Here are my statistics for previous seasons:

2024: 5/8
2023: 6/8
2022: 5/8
2021: 6/8
2020: 6/8
2019: 7/8
2018: 6/8
2017: 7/8
2016: 6/8
2015: 7/8
2014: 6/8
2013: 6/8
2012: 7/8
2011: 5/8
2010: 7/8
2009: 7/8
2008: 7/8
2007: 6/8
2006: 6/8

2006-2024 Total: 123/160 (.769)

Labels: Dallas Mavericks, Denver Nuggets, Golden State Warriors, Houston Rockets, L.A. Lakers, Minnesota Timberwolves, Oklahoma City Thunder, San Antonio Spurs

posted by David Friedman @ 12:02 PM

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Thunder Muzzle Wolves to Advance to the NBA Finals for the First Time Since 2012

The Oklahoma City Thunder outscored the Minnesota Timberwolves 26-9 in the first quarter and built a 39 point second half lead en route to a 124-94 win to clinch the Western Conference Finals, 4-1. The Thunder received the Oscar Robertson Trophy for winning the Western Conference Championship after shooting 46-88 (.523) from the field while limiting the Timberwolves to 35-85 (.412) field goal shooting. The Thunder also outrebounded the Timberwolves 46-39. The official fast break numbers were 19-11 in favor of the Thunder, but it seemed like the Thunder had an even more substantial edge in that category. At times, it looked like the Thunder were playing six on five as they had 14 steals and converted 21 turnovers into 18 points; at halftime, the Timberwolves had 14 turnovers and 12 field goals made, a rare team "Harden" (more turnovers than field goals made). 

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander scored a game-high 34 points on 14-25 field goal shooting while passing for a game-high eight assists, grabbing seven rebounds, and committing just two turnovers. He was one of five Thunder players who had plus/minus numbers of at least +21. The Thunder's first quarter domination was largely a product of Gilgeous-Alexander's high level scoring and playmaking, as he scored or assisted on 24 first quarter points: he scored 12 points on 5-7 field goal shooting, and he had three assists to Chet Holmgren (one three pointer, two dunks), one assist to Isaiah Hartenstein (dunk), and one assist to Cason Wallace for a three pointer just before the buzzer. Gilgeous-Alexander averaged 31.4 ppg, 8.2 apg, and 5.2 rpg during the series with shooting splits of .457/.318/.863 to earn the Magic Johnson Western Conference Finals MVP, joining a club that includes Stephen Curry (2022), Nikola Jokic (2023), and Luka Doncic (2024). 

In addition to Gilgeous-Alexander's individual brilliance, the Thunder are distinguished by their unrelenting defensive pressure, the athleticism throughout their roster, and their overall depth. Holmgren had 22 points, seven rebounds, and a game-high tying three blocked shots. Jalen Williams played a solid all-around game (19 points, game-high eight rebounds, five assists). Lu Dort scored 12 points and had his usual tremendous impact defensively, Isaiah Joe led the bench brigade with 11 points, and Alex Caruso was a menace on defense with a game-high four steals plus numerous deflections and general disruptiveness. The offseason additions of Caruso and Isaiah Hartenstein (eight points, five rebounds, two blocked shots in 17 minutes) helped the Thunder improve from being a very good team to being a dominant team.

The Timberwolves looked overwhelmed and frustrated. Anthony Edwards insists that he does not want to be the face of the NBA, and perhaps he should not be considered for that subjective title after scoring just 19 points on 7-18 field goal shooting with a game-worst -29 plus/minus number. He averaged 23.0 ppg, 7.4 rpg, and 4.6 apg during the series with shooting splits of .471/.282/.688. Edwards had two 30 point games during this series, and the Timberwolves went 1-1 in those contests, but he also had three games with less than 20 points, all three of which the Timberwolves lost. 

In the postgame press conference after game five, Edwards scoffed at the notion that being eliminated from the Western Conference Finals in five games for the second year in a row should hurt: "I don't know why people would think it would hurt. It's exciting for me. I'm 23. I get to do it a whole bunch of times. I'm hurt more so for [teammate] Mike [Conley]. I came up short for Mike. We tried last year, we couldn't get it. We tried again this year. We'll try again next year. But hurt is a terrible word to use. I'm good." Edwards should be careful about asserting that he will reach the Western Conference Finals "a whole bunch of times"; nothing is promised, and a lot can change for players and teams in a short period of time. Perhaps a mental health professional would say that Edwards has a mature response to losing, but I would argue that Edwards' attitude is not what one would expect from a champion or a potential champion. Michael Jordan and Kobe Bryant agonized after every season when they failed to win a title; again, maybe that is not the healthiest approach or the approach that a "normal" person might have, but perhaps champions are not "normal." There is a difference between winners and champions. Just making it to the NBA means that you are a winner--but very few NBA players become champions, and even fewer become the best player on a championship team. To become a champion, you have to feel at least a little hurt when you fall short. Maybe Edwards feels hurt but is too prideful to admit that publicly. By no means am I suggesting that he is not capable of leading a team to a title; he is too talented to write off at this early stage of his career. However, there are reasons to wonder about him based on how he plays and some of the things that he says. Edwards has had some great playoff performances, but he has also been outplayed by the other team's star in back to back Western Conference Finals, and those stars are young--Luka Doncic and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander--so Edwards will have to figure out how to beat his peers to win a championship; he is not in position to just inherit the top spot from older stars such as LeBron James, Kevin Durant, and Stephen Curry.

Julius Randle had 24 points on 8-14 field goal shooting plus five rebounds and three assists. Naz Reid added 11 points on 5-6 field goal shooting and a game-high tying three blocked shots in 24 minutes off of the bench. Terrence Shannon Jr. scored 11 points in 16 minutes off of the bench, and after the game Coach Chris Finch conceded that next season he may lengthen the rotation to give his young bench players more opportunities to contribute. 

The Timberwolves are a very good team, but not quite good enough to win a championship. It is interesting to note that their roster was built by Tim Connelly to beat the Denver Nuggets, whose roster Connelly built before coming to Minnesota. The Timberwolves defeated the Nuggets in the 2024 NBA playoffs, but this year the Timberwolves faced a Thunder team that eliminated the Nuggets, so it appears that Connelly may have to tweak his roster to deal with the Thunder's speed and defensive pressure, in contrast to the size and physicality that he assembled to attack Denver's big frontcourt.

The Thunder have reached the NBA Finals for the first time since 2012, when their young Kevin Durant-Russell Westbrook-James Harden trio lost 4-1 to the Miami Heat's "Big Three" of LeBron James, Dwyane Wade, and Chris Bosh. The Thunder look like a team that could be a contender for several years, but the 2012 Thunder represent a cautionary tale (and a tale that should be heeded by Edwards as well): that group never reached the NBA Finals again, with Harden fleeing for Houston after the 2012 NBA Finals run and then Durant joining Golden State's powerhouse team in 2016.

Labels: Alex Caruso, Anthony Edwards, Jalen Williams, Julius Randle, Minnesota Timberwolves, Oklahoma City Thunder, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander

posted by David Friedman @ 11:49 AM

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Thunder's Stars Outshine Timberwolves' Stars in Tightly Contested Game Four

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander scored a playoff career-high 40 points and Jalen William added a playoff career-high 34 points as the Oklahoma City Thunder outlasted the Minnesota Timberwolves 128-126 to take a 3-1 lead in the Western Conference Finals. Sports in general are very strategic, and basketball in particular is a game in which the smart take from the strong, but sometimes the game is simple: a team whose stars dominate has a great chance to win. Chet Holmgren, the Thunder's third option, scored as many points (21) as Minnesota's Anthony Edwards (16) and Julius Randle (five) combined.

Gilgeous-Alexander also had a game-high 10 assists, and a game-high tying nine rebounds. He did not shoot very efficiently (13-30, .433) and he had a game-high tying five turnovers, but--as we saw with Michael Jordan and Kobe Bryant--a team's best player has the responsibility to take a lot of shots because he will not only score but he will also attract defensive attention (only called "gravity" when Stephen Curry does it) that opens up opportunities for his teammates. One of the most impressive obscure statistics in pro basketball history is that Michael Jordan scored at least 20 points in 35 consecutive NBA Finals games. Jordan regularly faced double teams and triple teams, and he learned to pass the ball when necessary--but he always understood his responsibility to put up big scoring totals in every game, particularly in playoff games and NBA Finals games. Julius Erving scored at least 20 points in 26 straight Finals games (his last seven in the ABA and his first 19 in the NBA), and he scored at least 20 points in 31 of his 33 Finals games overall (10/11 in the ABA, 21/22 in the NBA). Jerry West ranks third with 25 straight NBA Finals games with at least 20 points.

Nickeil Alexander-Walker led the Timberwolves with 23 points, Jaden McDaniels scored 22 points, Donte DiVincenzo added 21 points, and Rudy Gobert contributed 13 points plus a game-high tying nine rebounds, but the problem is not just that Edwards only had 16 points in a de facto elimination game; the problem is that Edwards shot 5-13 from the field--and the low number of field goal attempts is at least as concerning as the poor field goal percentage, for the reason mentioned above: a team's best player must force the action at times. It sounds great to talk about "making the right play," but often the right play is attacking the opposing defense until it breaks; passively accepting a double team and then making a pass that does not threaten the defense is not "the right play," nor is it a winning play. Edwards and Randle each committed five turnovers, and Randle shot just 1-7 from the field; those numbers do not point to making the right play: they point to being tentative, indecisive, and careless with the ball. 

After Minnesota won game three 143-101 a lot was said about a momentum shift in this series. How much momentum carried over into game four? None. Momentum is something that talking heads mention in lieu of analyzing basketball strategy and matchups. In game three, Minnesota was the more aggressive team at both ends of the court, while Oklahoma City looked like a team that had relaxed after taking a 2-0 series lead. In contrast, the Thunder led 37-30 at the end of the first quarter of game four, scoring almost as many points in the first 12 minutes as they scored in the first 24 minutes of game three (41)--and the stars led the way, with Gilgeous-Alexander and Williams scoring 13 first quarter points each. The Timberwolves briefly led in the first quarter, but never by more than two points, and they did not lead at all in the final three quarters; the game remained close throughout--the Thunder's largest lead was only 11 points--but the outcome was never in serious doubt, because a team whose stars play passively throughout the game is not often rewarded with a win by the basketball gods.

Opposing fans call Gilgeous-Alexander a "foul merchant," which is an odd phrase. Is he being accused of selling fouls or buying fouls? Gilgeous-Alexander is not James Harden flopping and flailing while looking for bailout calls. Gilgeous-Alexander is aggressive, which all great offensive players are--and aggressive players draw fouls, which not only leads to free throws but also puts the opposing team in foul trouble. Edwards and Randle would be well-advised to match that level of aggressiveness to have any chance of extending this series beyond game five in Oklahoma City.

Labels: Anthony Edwards, Jalen Williams, Julius Randle, Minnesota Timberwolves, Oklahoma City Thunder, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander

posted by David Friedman @ 1:02 AM

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Timberwolves Roll Over Thunder, 143-101

The Oklahoma City Thunder can cancel the coronation and the parade, at least for now--after convincingly taking a 2-0 Western Conference Finals lead versus the Minnesota Timberwolves, the Thunder suffered a historic loss in game three as the Timberwolves led by as much as 45 points before prevailing, 143-101. The Timberwolves led 72-41 at halftime, setting a franchise playoff record for most points in a half and tying the third largest halftime lead in a Conference Finals game since 1971. They also set the franchise record for most points in a playoff game, and broke the NBA record for largest victory margin in any game--regular season or playoffs--versus a team that won 65 or more games that season. This was the worst playoff loss in Thunder history, and the second biggest playoff win in Timberwolves history.

The Thunder opened the game with a 4-0 run before the Timberwolves hit them with an avalanche, storming to a 34-14 lead by the end of the first quarter. The 68-33 score late in the second quarter looked like a typographical error. The Thunder opened the third quarter with an 11-2 run, but the Timberwolves called a timeout and then answered with a 23-4 burst to put the game away. One of the ways that the Thunder dominate teams is by forcing more turnovers than they commit, and then transforming many of those turnovers into fast break points, but in this game the Timberwolves committed just 10 turnovers leading to 15 points while forcing 14 turnovers resulting in 16 points. 

Anthony Edwards scored a game-high 30 points in just under 30 minutes while also leading both teams in rebounding (nine) and assists (six). Julius Randle bounced back from an awful game two, scoring 24 points on 9-15 field goal shooting. Terrence Shannon Jr. scored 15 points off of the bench in just 13 minutes; it is safe to assume that he did not receive much attention in the Thunder's scouting report, but he had nine of his points in the second quarter to help the Timberwolves blow the game open.

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, the NBA's regular season MVP and scoring champion, led the Thunder with just 14 points and a game-high tying six assists. Ajay Mitchell scored all 14 of his points in fourth quarter garbage time minutes. Jalen Williams had 13 points.

ESPN's Mike Breen correctly noted that the team that eventually wins the NBA championship sometimes has a blowout loss during their title run, and he said that in the moment that the blowout loss happens it is "shocking." One example that I remember from my childhood is the dominant 1982 L.A. Lakers who went 12-2 in the playoffs, including a 9-0 start after winning their final three regular season games. The Lakers did not lose a game from April 13-May 30 before Julius Erving's Philadelphia 76ers beat them 110-94 in game two of the NBA Finals; after the Lakers defeated the 76ers by 21 and 10 in the next two games they got blasted 135-102 before capturing the title with a 114-104 game six win as Magic Johnson logged a 13-13-13 triple double to win his second NBA Finals MVP in the first three seasons of his career. Losing a blowout does not guarantee winning a championship, of course; the point is that a blowout loss is not necessarily a sign that a team cannot or will not win a championship.

This game is a great reminder of how difficult it is for even a dominant team to sweep a best of seven playoff series, and it brought to mind the question of how often some of the greatest players of all-time won in sweeps (and how often they were swept). I looked up the playoff records of four members of my basketball Pantheon, choosing a dominant player who started his career in the 1970s (Julius Erving), the 1980s (Michael Jordan), the 1990s (Kobe Bryant), and the 2000s (LeBron James).

Julius Erving posted a 24-13 career playoff series record while winning three championships. He logged six sweeps in best of seven series (including the 1983 NBA Finals, the first NBA Finals sweep since 1975), and his teams were never swept (he had four 2-0 sweeps and was never swept 2-0). Michael Jordan had a 30-7 career playoff series record while winning six championships. He had three sweeps in best of seven series and was never swept in a best of seven series (he had six 3-0 sweeps and lost 3-0 twice). Kobe Bryant had a 33-10 career playoff series record while winning five championships. Bryant had five sweeps in best of seven series and he was swept three times in best of seven series (he also had two 3-0 sweeps and was never swept 3-0). LeBron James has a 41-14 career playoff series record while winning four championships. James has 12 sweeps in best of seven series and he was swept three times in best of seven series, including twice in the NBA Finals.

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is just a babe in the NBA playoff woods. He has a 3-3 career playoff series record, including two sweeps in best of seven series; he has never been swept, and his teams have won at least two games in all seven of his playoff series (including the 2025 Western Conference Finals, with his Thunder currently leading 2-1). It will be interesting to watch those numbers over the next decade or so. Anthony Edwards has a 3-4 career playoff series record with one sweep and no times being swept. We will find out soon enough if Edwards' Timberwolves will make this a competitive series by winning game four, or if they will be content to avoid being swept.

Labels: Anthony Edwards, Jalen Williams, Julius Randle, Minnesota Timberwolves, Oklahoma City Thunder, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander

posted by David Friedman @ 1:02 AM

2 comments