San Antonio Versus Minnesota Preview
Western Conference Second Round
#2 San Antonio (62-20) vs. #6 Minnesota (49-33)
Season series: Minnesota, 2-1
Minnesota can win if…the Timberwolves bully the Spurs in the paint and slow down the Spurs' transition game. The Timberwolves defeated the Denver Nuggets 4-2 in the first round, and they have eliminated the Nuggets twice in the past three seasons (2024, 2026) after losing to the Nuggets during the Nuggets' 2023 championship season. The Timberwolves are seeking their third straight trip to the Western Conference Finals, a feat that has not been accomplished since the Golden State Warriors reached the Western Conference Finals five consecutive times (2015-19).
Denver beat Minnesota in game one when Minnesota seemed more focus on acting tough than playing smart, physical basketball,
but Minnesota won four of the next five games. Rudy Gobert was the key player in this series, and his impact went far beyond his individual numbers (7.7 ppg, team-high 10.7 rpg, 1.2 bpg) because he anchored Minnesota's defense while holding Nikola Jokic to .446 field goal shooting, his worst field goal percentage in 17 career playoff series and significantly worse than his .520 career playoff field goal percentage. Jokic still led both teams in scoring (25.8 ppg), rebounding (13.2 rpg), and assists (9.5 apg), but he also had a series-high 23 turnovers (seven more than any other player). Gobert's elite defense is the main reason that Jokic shot so poorly and turned the ball over so frequently. Gobert also had a series-high 22 offensive rebounds as the Timberwolves gathered 72 offensive rebounds while holding the Nuggets to 42 offensive rebounds.
Gobert has received a lot of unwarranted criticism from uninformed media
members, jealous/uninformed players, and uninformed social media content creators but the documented reality is that for quite some time
Minnesota's defense has been significantly better with him on the court
than it is with him off of the court.
Julius Randle ranked second on the team in scoring (19.2 ppg), second in rebounding (7.3 rpg), and first in assists (4.2 apg). Jaden McDaniels averaged 17.8 ppg--including a game-high 32 points in game six--and he hounded Jamal Murray into .357 field goal shooting. McDaniels snared 17 offensive rebounds, trailing only Gobert and leading every Nugget by at least eight.
The Timberwolves eliminated the Nuggets despite losing Donte DiVincenzo and Anthony Edwards to
injuries. Ayo Dosunmu filled the gap, leading Minnesota with 21.8 ppg on .609 field
goal shooting--including a playoff career-high 43
points in Minnesota's 112-96 game four win--but he scored
just 18 points in Minnesota's game five loss before missing game six due
to recurring right calf soreness.
Edwards has a bone bruise in his left knee and even if he is able to
return to action during this series he will likely be limited,
particularly considering that he was already battling right knee
soreness before he injured his left knee. DiVincenzo ruptured his right
Achilles tendon during game four versus Denver and will miss the rest of
the playoffs plus most if not all of the 2026-27 regular season.
San Antonio will win because...the Spurs are dominant defensively, and will pose problems that Minnesota's offense cannot solve sans Edwards and DiVincenzo. Through the games played on April 30, the Spurs rank first in the playoffs in points allowed (100.0 ppg), first in defensive field goal percentage (.403), and second in blocked shots (7.2 bpg) after dominating the Portland Trail Blazers 4-1 in the first round. Victor Wembanyama leads the playoffs in blocked shots (4.0 bpg) as the anchor and paint protector for the Spurs' suffocating defense.
During the regular season, the Spurs played at an elite level at both ends of the court, ranking second in the league in rebounding, third in scoring,
fourth in defensive field goal percentage, sixth in field goal
percentage, and eighth in points allowed. They maintained those high standards in the first round; in addition to the numbers mentioned above, they rank fifth in playoff rebounding (44.4
rpg), third in scoring (112.8 ppg), second in blocked shots (7.2 bpg), and fourth in field goal percentage
(.484).
In addition to his shot blocking prowess, Wembanyama averaged 21.0 ppg, 8.8 rpg, 2.0 apg, and 1.0 spg in the first round. His shooting splits were tremendous: .583/.538/.913. Wembanyama played in four games, missing San Antonio's 120-108 game three win because he was in the concussion protocol after banging his head on the floor in game two. His averages are deflated because he only played 11 minutes in game two, finishing with five points and four rebounds in San Antonio's only loss, a 106-103 setback.
De'Aaron Fox ranked second on the team in scoring versus Portland (20.2 ppg) while leading the Spurs in assists (6.8 apg). Stephon Castle averaged 19.8 ppg, 6.0 apg, and 4.0 rpg. Wembanyama, Fox, and Castle are a three-headed monster with each player averaging around 20 ppg in the playoffs while being capable of erupting for at least 30 points in any given game.
Other things to consider: The Spurs' only weakness is that--other than Fox and Luke Kornet--the
top eight players in their playoff rotation lack significant postseason
experience, so it will be interesting to see if the battle-tested
Timberwolves are able to exploit this. The Timberwolves showed admirable physicality, resilience, and toughness versus the Nuggets. McDaniels publicly called out the Nuggets for being weak defensively, and he and his teammates backed up his big words with bold actions on the court. It is a bit surprising that the Nuggets could not take advantage of Minnesota's depleted roster to at least force a game seven in Denver, but the young and energetic Spurs can threaten the Timberwolves in ways that the Nuggets did not: the Spurs will push the ball, they will not be as bothered by the Timberwolves' long and rangy perimeter defensive players, and their depth will prove daunting for the shorthanded Timberwolves.
San Antonio will defeat Minnesota in six games.
Labels: Ayo Dosunmu, De'Aaron Fox, Jaden McDaniels, Minnesota Timberwolves, Rudy Gobert, San Antonio Spurs, Stephon Castle, Victor Wembanyama
posted by David Friedman @ 8:12 PM
NBA Wags a Stern Finger at Draymond Green for Confronting a Fan During a Game
The NBA has reportedly issued a "warning" to Draymond Green after Green went chest to chest with a courtside fan in New Orleans on Sunday as Green's Golden State Warriors defeated the New Orleans Pelicans, 124-106. The fan had been chanting "Angel Reese" at Green after Green missed several shots. Reese is a WNBA player who is notorious for seemingly padding her rebound totals by collecting her own missed shots. Green finished with eight points on 3-13 field goal shooting, 10 rebounds (including four offensive rebounds), six assists, and five turnovers; in the first quarter, Green scored 0 points on 0-7 field goal shooting, and he had four offensive rebounds (all of which were from his own missed layups or attempted tip in shots). The fan's chanting may have been annoying to Green, but it was not vulgar, and it pertained to the action on the court, as opposed to being a random or offensive insult. Fans have a right to cheer or boo, and to heckle as long as the heckling is not vulgar/offensive and not interfering with other fans being able to watch the game.
It is not clear what Green thought that he could accomplish by approaching the fan, who did not back away and did not seem intimidated by Green; it is also not clear what the NBA thinks that it can accomplish by issuing an unofficial warning to Green, who has a long history of violent misconduct despite being fined and suspended multiple times; if forcing Green to miss games and lose money did not straighten him out, a verbal warning is unlikely to have much impact.
Green has quite a rap sheet demonstrating his immaturity and his lack of emotional control. In the 2016 playoffs, Green
kicked Steven Adams in the groin, and Green was suspended for game five of the
NBA Finals after striking LeBron James in the groin in game four. Green consistently gets away with running roughshod over referees with incessant (and often vulgar) complaining/whining, he viciously punched then-teammate Jordan Poole in 2022, he stomped on Domantas Sabonis twice while Sabonis was down on the floor during a 2023 playoff game, he choked Rudy Gobert during a 2023 regular season game, and he slugged Jusuf Nurkic in the face during a 2023 regular season game.
Green specializes in attacking players who are (1) not standing up or are in an otherwise compromised position and (2) are either smaller than he is or are clearly not going to fight back. Green had a chance to confront Ron Artest/Metta World Peace several years ago and somehow managed to not attempt a chokehold, groin kick, or punch--because Green is a bully who knows better than to pick a fight with someone who is crazier or tougher than he is. There may not be that many players left in the NBA who are willing to fight at the cost of being fined/suspended, but Green knows very well who they are and he gives them a wide berth. However, people like Green who think that they know who to mess with only have to make one mistake to end up in a precarious situation in which either they get injured or they injure someone else--and Green is fortunate that the players he has struck, kicked, and choked did not end up with serious injuries. What if Poole had suffered brain damage or Gobert had suffered a broken neck? There are many people in prison because the people who they hit in the face or who they choked suffered serious or even fatal injuries.
Green also has an outsized belief not only regarding his worth/power, but the worth/power of athletes in general vis a vis the owners who employ them (and the fans who ultimately pay their salaries by purchasing tickets and merchandise). After the NBA suspended Green for choking Gobert, I lamented Green's anger control issues and inflated sense of entitlement:
Green is the poster child for athletes who are paid far more than they
could ever earn doing anything else, and who have developed a sense of
entitlement without a corresponding sense of responsibility regarding
their conduct. If Green did not have the NBA to protect him, there is a
strong possibility that he would be in jail--or dead--as a consequence
of his inability to control his anger. Sadly, neither of those
possibilities can be ruled out if he does not seek help. Gobert referred
to Green as a "clown" and I can understand why he feels that way, but
this is no laughing matter: Green needs help both to protect others and
to protect himself, because his behavior goes well beyond just being a
physical player. In the sense that Green is overrated, Gobert is
correct: without the injured Stephen Curry and Klay Thompson around to
carry the load, the Warriors went 15-50 in 2019-20 as Green averaged 8.0
ppg on .389 field goal shooting while looking very much like a role
player and very little like the Hall of Famer he is purported to be.
Green seems to get very angry when his limitations as a player are
pointed out, but that does not change the reality that he is a limited
player whose specific talents can be helpful for a team already stacked
with talent but don't make much impact on winning otherwise.
In December 2023, I warned that the NBA is taking a risk by not sufficiently disciplining Green for his out of control violent behavior:
If the NBA keeps protecting Green from the natural consequences of his
actions, Green is going to eventually do something so egregious that the
NBA will no longer be able to protect him because the judicial system
will be compelled to intervene. Draymond Green is a 6-6, 230 walking
time bomb that is going to explode in the league's face if Commissioner
Silver does not take strong action--and if time bomb Green explodes, the
league is not going to be able to successfully argue in court that the
explosion was not foreseeable given Green's track record of violent
behavior.
Green has some basketball skills, but he is not as good as he thinks he is. Green should not be compared to Hall of Famers Dennis Rodman or Ben Wallace. Rodman won seven straight rebounding titles, and would have been a dominant rebounder regardless of who his teammates were. Wallace won two rebounding titles and one shot blocking title, and he ranked in the top 10 in the league in those categories seven times each overall. Neither Rodman nor Wallace could have been the best player on a championship team, but both were statistically dominant players. In contrast, Green has only led the NBA in a statistical category once (steals per game in 2016-17), he has never ranked in the top ten in rebounds per game or blocked shots per game, and he is heavily dependent on being surrounded by great players who do most of the work, as I noted last year when I assessed Green's legacy:
Green is going to ride his triple single career averages (8.7 ppg, 7.0
rpg, 5.6 apg) all the way to the Naismith Memorial Basketball Hall of
Fame because he was lucky enough to play alongside Kevin Durant, Stephen
Curry, Klay Thompson, and Andre Iguodala. Is "lucky" a fair adjective?
What would Green's career have looked like without those guys? Glad you
asked: in the 2019-20 season, Iguodala and Durant were gone (Green
played a role in chasing Durant away, but that is another story),
Thompson missed the whole season due to injury, and Curry played in just
five games due to injury. Green showed the world who he really is as a
player, averaging 8.0 ppg on .389 field goal shooting along with 6.2 rpg
and 6.2 apg for a 15-50 team. So, yes, "lucky" seems about right.
Green will be 36 years old soon, and his pedestrian numbers so far this season (7.9 ppg on .391 field goal shooting, 5.8 rpg) indicate that his playing days will be over soon. Green's retirement will be a mixed blessing: the good news is that we will no longer have to watch him deliver cheap shots to opposing players and we will no longer have to listen to his self-serving excuses for his lack of emotional self-control; the bad news is that he likely will be paid millions of dollars per year to be a commentator for one of the NBA's media partners, turning that media partner's pregame show into a mess almost as unwatchable as any pregame show featuring "Screamin' A" Smith. Green is supposed to have a high basketball IQ, but that has not been evident thus far when he has been a TV commentator; to cite just one example, when he participated in TNT's coverage of the 2024 Western Conference Finals he was more interested in bashing Gobert than in providing intelligent analysis, as I pointed out in my game two recap:
An intelligent, unbiased commentator would talk about the final
possession of the game when Dallas gave up an open three pointer to Naz
Reid even though Reid was the hottest three point shooter in the game.
Reid's shot barely missed, but just as it could be argued that Minnesota
should not have given up a three pointer to Doncic with a two point
lead it could also be argued that Dallas should not have given up an
open shot to Reid, one of the few Minnesota players who shot well in
this game.
Instead, Green focused his attention on Gobert,
sounding like a little kid on the playground teasing another kid as
opposed to sounding like an intelligent, unbiased commentator analyzing
what happened. It is valid to question why Minnesota left Gobert in the
game for the last defensive possession instead of going small, switching
everything, and forcing Dallas to shoot a two point shot--but it is
silly to act as if Gobert is personally responsible for Doncic hitting
the kind of shot that he has hit many times before against many other
players.
Gobert has one of the best plus/minus numbers overall
during the 2024 playoffs, and the Timberwolves have outscored the
Mavericks during his minutes this series while being outscored when
Gobert is out of the game. I would not be surprised if "Screamin' A" Smith
acted as if an entire 48 minute NBA game can be boiled down to one
shot, but intelligent commentators understand that the last play is not
necessarily what decided the outcome. Here, the Timberwolves enjoyed a
16 point third quarter lead before their offense fell apart; are we
supposed to pretend like all of those empty offensive possessions had
nothing to do with the final result?
Green is either
an idiot or a buffoon: he either does not know what he is talking about,
or he does not care how foolish he sounds. It is interesting that Kenny
Smith was the only person on the TNT set who was willing to even
tentatively challenge Green's nonsense both before and after the game.
Smith noted that the Timberwolves have outscored the Mavericks during
Gobert's minutes, and Smith emphasized that Doncic could have made that
last shot over anyone, not just Gobert. Charles Barkley and Shaquille
O'Neal did not contradict Green, but they correctly focused on Towns'
shortcomings and they made the valid point that if the Timberwolves are
going to play big then their big men must play with force in the paint.
The Timberwolves' problem is that they are not attacking the paint
offensively--and that problem must be fixed by Edwards and Towns. The
problem is not drop coverage or Rudy Gobert or any other nonsense spewed
by Green. If Green keeps lying about Gobert it would be great if
someone had the guts to tell the truth about Green, and his triple
single exploits on .389 field goal shooting for the 15-50 Warriors
during the 2019-20 season when Green did not have Kevin Durant, Stephen
Curry, Klay Thompson, or Andre Iguodala to do the heavy lifting. I'll
double down on what I said before: Green will be inducted in the
Basketball Hall of Fame primarily because he was lucky enough to play alongside those four players.
It
is also worth mentioning that Green went 0-3 versus Minnesota this
season, and 1-2 last season (Golden State beat Minnesota once in 2022-23
when Green did not play, an example of addition by subtraction). If
Green is so smart, maybe he should use that big brain to figure out how
to do better than 1-5 versus the player and team that he keeps mocking.
The NBA and TNT should have been embarrassed to put Green on the air in the first place after his numerous violent incidents,
and they should be even more embarrassed by how he is doing his
part-time job. When David Stern was the NBA's Commissioner, he took the
consistent position that it was important to promote the game and uplift
the players. How does it promote the game to uplift a violent and petty
person like Green to a position of prominence so that Green can mock
the league's Defensive Player of the Year? If Gobert is as bad as Green
suggests, then either the league is trash, or the media members who do
the voting are idiots; neither scenario is a good look for the league.
The NBA under Commissioner Adam Silver has coddled Green for too long, and no one should be surprised when Green does something so egregious that the NBA will not be able to protect Green from legal consequences. What if Green had hit the New Orleans fan like he hit Poole? Green would be in jail, and he, the Warriors, and the NBA would likely be facing a multi-million dollar lawsuit. It is easy to retort that Green did not hit the fan because Green knows what boundaries he cannot cross, but Green has crossed multiple boundaries already, so relying on him to exercise good judgment is quite a gamble, even for a league that does not mind being in bed with legalized gambling operations.
Labels: Adam Silver, Domantas Sabonis, Draymond Green, Golden State Warriors, Jordan Poole, Jusuf Nurkic, NBA, New Orleans Pelicans, Rudy Gobert
posted by David Friedman @ 12:05 PM
Oklahoma City Versus Minnesota Preview
Western Conference Finals
#1 Oklahoma City (68-14) vs. #6 Minnesota (49-33)
Season series: Tied, 2-2
Minnesota can win if… Anthony Edwards is the best player in the series, if the Timberwolves control the paint, and if the Timberwolves are not careless with the ball.
Edwards averaged a team-high 26.2 ppg, 7.6 rpg (second on the team), and 5.6 apg (second on the team) in Minnesota's 4-1 second round series win versus the Golden State Warriors. Julius Randle also had an outstanding series versus the Warriors, leading the team in assists (7.4 apg) while ranking second in scoring (25.2 ppg) and third in rebounding (6.6 rpg). A lot of nonsense is spouted about why the Timberwolves should reduce Rudy Gobert's role, but Gobert dominated the paint against the Warriors, averaging 9.6 ppg on .643 field goal shooting while leading Minnesota in rebounding (9.4 rpg) and blocked shots (1.8 bpg).
The Timberwolves are a big, physical team, so it is not surprising that
they rank second in the playoffs in points allowed (101.1 ppg) and
fourth in defensive field goal percentage (.433). Gobert anchors the defense in the paint, while Jaden McDaniels is a stopper on the wing. Donte DiVincenzo (team-high 1.7 spg in the playoffs) and Edwards are good defenders, and veteran point guard Mike Conley is a savvy player at both ends of the court.
The Timberwolves reached the Western Conference Finals last year by knocking off the defending NBA champion Denver Nuggets,
so it should not be surprising that they are in the Western Conference
Finals again--but they had a .500 record (17-17) on January 4, and that
sluggish start may have made a lasting impression on commentators even
though the Timberwolves went 8-1 to end the season. I count myself among those who underestimated them before the playoffs began.
They have committed the fifth most turnovers per game (14.8) among this year's 16 playoff teams; the four teams that committed more turnovers per game--Memphis, Detroit, Miami, and Denver--have been eliminated, with all but Denver losing in the first round. Poor decision making in general and careless ballhandling in particular are two major areas of concern for Minnesota. The Timberwolves rank fourth in playoff field goal percentage (.465) and sixth in scoring (108.2 ppg), so when they take care of the ball they score very efficiently.
Oklahoma City will win because…the Thunder are more talented, deeper, more athletic, and more efficient.
The skepticism about the Thunder is increasingly difficult to understand: they have a great player who is unselfish and plays at a high level on offense and on defense, they have a talented and well-balanced starting lineup, and they may have the league's deepest bench. They posted one of the best regular season records in NBA history (68-14) and set the all-time record for point differential (12.9 ppg), breaking a mark (12.3 ppg) held by the legendary 1971-72 L.A. Lakers team that featured Hall of Famers Wilt Chamberlain, Jerry West, and Gail Goodrich.
The Denver Nuggets fought valiantly to push the Thunder to seven games in the second round, but the
Thunder overwhelmed the Nuggets 125-93 in game seven. During that series, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander led the Thunder in minutes (37.6 mpg), scoring (29.7 ppg), and assists (6.6 apg) while also averaging 6.4 rpg (third on the team), 1.6 spg (tied for second on the team), and .6 bpg (tied for fourth on the team). His shooting splits were .529/.333/.825. Last season, he finished second in regular season MVP voting to three-time MVP Nikola Jokic, and it is reasonable to believe that he will finish first ahead of Jokic this season. Gilgeous-Alexander is not flashy--his game does not feature an abundance of dunks, three pointers, or fancy moves--but his game is brutally efficient and fundamentally sound at both ends of the court. The Thunder appear to have exquisite team chemistry, and as the team's best player and unquestioned leader Gilgeous-Alexander deserves a lot of credit for that.
In 2025, Jalen Williams made the All-Star team for the first time, and he set career-highs in scoring (21.6 ppg), rebounding (5.3 rpg), and assists (5.1 apg). He has been inconsistent during the playoffs, with scoring totals ranging from 6 to 32, but overall he has been productive, ranking second on the team in scoring (19.6 ppg) and assists (5.7 apg) while ranking fourth in rebounding (5.4 rpg). The Thunder will need for him to score 20-plus ppg versus the Timberwolves.
The rail-thin Chet Holmgren is the Thunder's third leading playoff scorer (15.7 ppg), and he leads the team in rebounding (9.7 rpg) and blocked shots (2.2 bpg). The big and rugged Isaiah Hartenstein leads the team in playoff field goal percentage (.605) while also ranking second in rebounding (8.7 rpg) and fourth in assists (2.8 apg); he is not only a lob threat at the rim but he can also run the offense at times from the high post, passing to cutters.
Alex Caruso is the Thunder's oldest player (31 years old) and the only player on the team with championship experience. He is a feisty and smart defensive player who leads the team in playoff steals (1.8 spg) while also shooting .417 from three point range. His scrappy post defense versus Jokic in game seven contributed to the Thunder run that broke the game open.
Other things to consider: In my 2024 Western Conference Finals Preview, I praised the way that the Timberwolves constructed their team:
While other franchises try to "tank to the top" or assemble "super teams," the Timberwolves built their roster organically. Tim
Connelly, who laid the foundation of the Denver Nuggets' championship
success before becoming Minnesota's President of Basketball Operations, assembled the Timberwolves' roster with the understanding that size matters in the NBA at both ends of the court. "Stat gurus" mocked Connelly's trade for
Rudy Gobert, but Connelly did not panic after the Timberwolves lost 4-1
to the Denver Nuggets in the 2023 playoffs. Connelly ignored the noise
about Gobert being unplayable in today's "pace and space" NBA--noise
that could still be heard during the second round of this year's
playoffs before the Timberwolves won games six and seven to send the
Nuggets home for the summer.
In contrast, the Thunder tanked for two seasons (2020-22). Historically, it has been proven that tanking does not work, so if the Thunder cap their tremendous season with a championship then they will be the first NBA team to "tank to the top" (the premature and inaccurate description applied to Philadelphia's disastrous tanking)--but what the Thunder did differs from what most other tanking teams did because the Thunder did not embrace tanking and denied (and still deny) that they ever tanked; it could be argued that this is a distinction without a difference, but one of the problems with tanking is that it infects a franchise with a losing culture by accepting the notion that trying to win every game does not matter. The 76ers embraced what they called "The Process," and their franchise still displays a losing mentality on and off of the court, as demonstrated by--among other things--load management, and key players not being in peak condition. In contrast, the Thunder made personnel moves that strongly suggested that they were tanking but those moves could also be interpreted as their attempt to build the best roster around budding young star Gilgeous-Alexander. There is no doubt that Coach Mark Daigneault has cultivated a winning culture, and it appears that he started doing so from day one, even when he was saddled with a roster that was not capable of winning very much.
Hopefully, if the Thunder win an NBA title this will not be considered a justification of tanking, because tanking cheats paying fans while demeaning and diminishing the value of competition. The NBA was much better when load management and tanking did not exist.
Regardless of how one feels about how the Thunder assembled their team, there is no denying how strong this team is, nor is there any denying that the Thunder have the edge in this matchup in the most relevant categories: the Thunder have the best player in the series (if not the entire league), they have a better offense, they led the NBA in defensive field goal percentage during the regular season and during the playoffs, and they have enough size to match up with any team.
Oklahoma City will defeat Minnesota in six games.
Labels: Alex Caruso, Anthony Edwards, Chet Holmgren, Jalen Williams, Julius Randle, Minnesota Timberwolves, Oklahama City Thunder, Rudy Gobert, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander
posted by David Friedman @ 8:46 PM
Minnesota Versus Golden State Preview
Western Conference Second Round
#6 Minnesota (49-33) vs. #7 Golden State (48-34)
Season series: Golden State, 3-1
Golden State can win if…Stephen Curry does not wear down, if Jimmy Butler dominates by scoring in the paint/drawing fouls, and if the Warriors' defense contains Anthony Edwards without conceding too many open shots to other Minnesota players. Minnesota reached the Western Conference Finals last year and has homecourt advantage, so Golden State faces an uphill battle in this series.
The Warriors floundered to a 25-26 start this season before acquiring Jimmy Butler from the Miami Heat. After finishing the season with a 48-34 record, the Warriors defeated the Memphis Grizzlies 121-116 in the NBA Play-In Tournament to earn the seventh seed in the Western Conference. Golden State took a 3-1 lead in the first round versus the second seeded Houston Rockets before losing games five and six to set up a game seven showdown in Houston; it appeared as if the younger and more physical Rockets had worn down the Warriors, holding Curry to 13-35 (.371) field goal shooting in games five and six while forcing him to commit eight turnovers--but Golden State won game seven 103-89 as Buddy Hield scored a game-high 33 points while shooting 12-15 from the field, including 9-11 from three point range. Curry bounced back to produce 22 points on 8-16 field goal shooting while grabbing a team-high 10 rebounds (just his second double figure rebounding game in the playoffs since 2022) and passing for a game-high seven assists. Butler added 20 points, eight rebounds, and seven assists.
Curry is perhaps the most unusual of the players who can legitimately be ranked among the 15-20 greatest all-time; he and Jerry West are the shortest players in that group, but West was stronger, could jump higher, and played much better defense. During his playoff career, Curry has been targeted on defense, he has been worn down as series progress, and he has won the NBA Finals MVP just once during four championship campaigns--but he has also produced in the clutch on many occasions, including yesterday's game seven win in Houston and his 50 point masterpiece in a game seven win at Sacramento in 2023.
The addition of Butler has helped Golden State because Butler is not only an efficient scorer but he draws fouls, he is an excellent passer, he rebounds well, he is a very good defender, and he rises to the occasion in big moments. The Warriors would not even be in the playoffs this season without him. Against Houston, Butler ranked second on the team in scoring (18.3 ppg) and assists (4.8 apg), and first in rebounds (6.0 rpg). Butler played for Minnesota in the 2017-18 season before his contentious departure during the 2018-19 season, and this is the first time that he has faced the Timberwolves in the playoffs.
Draymond Green defends well, sets good screens, and is a deft passer. He is also an emotional time bomb that has exploded on many occasions, both to his detriment and to the detriment of his team. His media buddies will say that Golden State cannot win without him, but Green's typical triple single statistics versus Houston speak loudly: 8.0 ppg (sixth on the team), 5.6 rpg (third), and 3.3 apg (third) with .393/.258/.571 shooting splits. Even if one buys the premise that Green does a lot of good things that don't show up in the boxscore, what shows up in the boxscore for Green is often less than impressive, and we have already seen that Green has minimal impact on team success when he is not surrounded by multiple future Hall of Famers, with his triple singles adding up to a 15-50 record in the 2019-20 season.
Hield's game seven performance was an aberration not only in the series--he scored five points or less in four of the seven games--but those 33 points are more than a third of his career playoff scoring total (98 points). The likelihood that he will ever score 33 points again in a playoff game is exceedingly low.
Minnesota will win because...the Timberwolves will use their size to frustrate Golden State at both ends of the court. The Rockets did not consistently exploit their size advantage versus the Warriors and the Rockets lack a defined, elite number one scoring option; the Timberwolves bludgeoned the Lakers in the paint in the first round, and Anthony Edwards is an elite scorer whose young career already includes playoff series wins versus Luka Doncic, Kevin Durant, LeBron James, and Nikola Jokic. Edwards averaged 26.8 ppg, 8.4 rpg, and 6.2 apg versus the Lakers.
Former Laker Julius Randle, who the Timberwolves acquired from the New York Knicks in exchange for Karl-Anthony Towns prior to this series, averaged 22.6 ppg, 5.2 rpg, and 4.4 apg versus the Lakers. Randle can drive to the hoop with power, and he can nail three pointers as well, shooting 11-28 (.393) from long distance versus the Lakers to rank second on the team in three pointers made and second in three point field goal percentage.
Jaden McDaniels played excellent defense versus Doncic while also scoring 17.4 ppg (third on the team behind Edwards and Randle).
Draymond Green loves to mock and belittle Rudy Gobert, but now Green will have to deal with Gobert on the court. Gobert's first playoff matchup versus the Warriors ended in a 4-0 Golden State sweep of the Utah Jazz in 2017, but those Warriors featured prime Kevin Durant, prime Stephen Curry, and prime Klay Thompson, plus three big men (David West, Zaza Pachulia, JaVale McGhee) who each averaged between 10-15 mpg during that series. Gobert averaged 15.5 ppg on .658 field goal shooting in that series, and he led both teams with 13.0 rpg, so the notion that he does not match up well with the Warriors is demonstrably false--and if Gobert can be effective versus the Lakers' trio of Luka Doncic, LeBron James, and Austin Reaves, then he can be effective versus Stephen Curry, Jimmy Butler, and the undersized Warriors. Gobert did not score much during the first four games versus the Lakers, but in game five he had 27 points on 12-15 field goal shooting while grabbing 24 rebounds; the Lakers defiantly stuck with a small lineup, and Gobert destroyed the Lakers in the paint.
Other things to consider: I did not pick either of these teams to reach the second round, so I have to candidly assess what specifically I either underrated about these teams or that I overrated about their first round opponents.
I expected the L.A. Lakers to exploit the scoring/playmaking of Luka Doncic, LeBron James, and Austin Reaves to overcome Minnesota's size advantage--but the Timberwolves pounded the Lakers into submission at both ends of the court while sufficiently containing Doncic, James, and Reaves. The Timberwolves did not fall into the trap of going small to match up with the Lakers but instead punished the Lakers for being too small.
I expected the Houston Rockets to use their size advantage and physicality to wear down the smaller, older Golden State Warriors; the Rockets followed that blueprint successfully for substantial portions of this series--most notably during games five and six--but they could not overcome their anemic offense, scoring 93 points or less in three of the seven games.
The Timberwolves are a bigger, better version of the Rockets team that wore down the Warriors but could not knock out the Warriors; the Timberwolves will finish what the Rockets began.
Minnesota will defeat Golden State in six games.
Labels: Anthony Edwards, Draymond Green, Golden State Warriors, Jimmy Butler, Julius Randle, Minnesota Timberwolves, Rudy Gobert, Stephen Curry
posted by David Friedman @ 4:14 PM
Gobert Dominates Paint as Timberwolves Eliminate Lakers
Facing elimination at home, the favored L.A. Lakers fell behind 6-0 to the more physical and more focused Minnesota Timberwolves, and the Timberwolves led most of the way en route to a 103-96 game five win in L.A. that left Lakers' fans with more questions than answers about their highly touted team. The Timberwolves built their biggest lead of the game, 29-15, late in the first quarter, but led by single digits for most of the game; in the fourth quarter, the Timberwolves never led by more than eight points or trailed by more than one point, but despite keeping the margin within a three possession band the Lakers could not save their season.
The Timberwolves outscored the Lakers 56-40 in the paint while outrebounding the Lakers 54-37. Rudy Gobert scored a team-high 27 points on 12-15 field goal shooting while grabbing a game-high 24 rebounds and blocking two shots. Former Laker Julius Randle contributed 23 points, five rebounds, and four assists. Anthony Edwards scored 15 points on 4-19 field goal shooting (including 0-10 from three point range), but he had 11 rebounds, a team-high eight assists, and a team-high three steals.
Luka Doncic scored a game-high 28 points and dished for a game-high nine assists, but he shot just 7-18 from the field, and with the game up for grabs he scored just three points in the fourth quarter. Rui Hachimura added 23 points on 9-16 field goal shooting. LeBron James finished with 22 points on 9-21 field goal shooting, seven rebounds, six assists, and a game-worst -14 plus/minus number. James scored five points on 2-7 field goal shooting in the fourth quarter.
During this series, the Timberwolves outscored the Lakers in the paint in four of the five games; not surprisingly, the Lakers' only win (in game two) was the only game when the Lakers held their own in the paint, tying the Timberwolves 46-46 in a 94-85 victory. Another key statistic for this series is fourth quarter scoring; although the Lakers outscored the Timberwolves by small margins in the first quarter and the third quarter, in the fourth quarter they averaged 17.0 ppg, shot just .293 from the field, and got outscored by 8.4 ppg.
I will say more about the the Timberwolves in my preview of their second round series, but this is a good time to take a closer look at the state of the Lakers.
The Lakers' late collapses versus the Timberwolves can be explained at least partially by coaching. It is important that a coach understand matchups, time and score, the rhythm of the game, and the fatigue level of his players. The Lakers had the two best individual players in this series--four-time NBA champion LeBron James, and Luka Doncic, who led the Dallas Mavericks to the NBA Finals last year--but the Timberwolves exploited their matchup advantages in the paint while keeping James and Doncic reasonably under control without creating openings for the Lakers' supporting cast to make an impact.
The Timberwolves enjoyed a significant coaching advantage: Chris Finch versus J.J. Redick may have been the biggest mismatch in this series. Redick established multiple records in his playoff coaching debut: no coach had ever played the same five players for every minute of the second half of a playoff game until Redick did that in the game four loss, and no Lakers team had ever lost in the first round of the playoffs while seeded at least third. Redick set an unofficial record for the fewest times that a coach ever took responsibility for his team's loss.
Finch led the Timberwolves to the Western Conference Finals last year, and he is now the first coach in franchise history to advance past the first round in back to back seasons. In contrast, Redick is a first year NBA coach with no prior coaching experience beyond the youth level, and his NBA playoff coaching resume now shows a 1-4 record while coaching the third seeded team versus the sixth seeded team. When a reporter asked Redick a reasonable question about his substitution patterns, Redick arrogantly scoffed, "Weird assumption" before storming out of the press conference. Redick's combination of arrogance with lack of knowledge is not likely to lead to sustained success.
After the Lakers made the stunning trade with Dallas to acquire Doncic in exchange for Anthony Davis, I wrote, "Even if Doncic and James both average 30 ppg the rest of the way, the
Lakers may not be able to score enough points, get enough rebounds, and
get enough stops to win consistently; they desperately need to add at
least one competent defensive big man before the trade deadline to have
any hope of getting past the first round of the playoffs." I should have heeded my own words when I made my 2025 Playoff Predictions, but I somehow convinced myself that the Lakers would squeak by the Timberwolves before losing in the second round. The overarching point of my initial analysis was correct: the Lakers will not be a legit championship contender until they beef up their frontcourt, much like the Mavericks did last season by adding Daniel Gafford. The Lakers have a multi-year timeframe to build around the 26 year old Doncic, who is already one of the NBA's five best players and should be just entering his prime years.
It is not clear how the Lakers can reconcile Luka Doncic's long term timeframe with the year to year timeframe of 40 year old LeBron James. In The Paradox of LeBron James, I wrote, "LeBron James baffles and mystifies me more than any other great player
who I have observed and/or studied, so it is only fitting that as he
enters the final stage of his career he continues to be baffling and
mystifying." James is without question one of the greatest players of all-time; anyone who suggests otherwise is biased, foolish, or both. James is also without question the most productive 40 year old player in NBA history. This season, he averaged 24.4 ppg, 8.2 apg, and 7.8 rpg while shooting .513 from the field; those would be career-best numbers for many Hall of Famers, but overall this was a below average season for James. It is not reasonable to blame a 40 year old for not being able to lead a team on a deep playoff run when no other 40 year old has been able to do that--but James is not being paid like a 40 year old player who cannot carry a team: he is the 14th highest paid player in the NBA.
How can the Lakers methodically build around Doncic with the idea of having sustained long term success while at the same time dealing with James on a year to year basis as one of the league's highest paid players? This is not just about salary cap space, either. With the exception of his four years in Miami--the most successful four years of his career from the standpoint of team success--James runs the show when he joins a team, meaning that he picks the coach and he picks the roster; that is why his former podcast partner Redick is the coach, and that is why the Lakers drafted his son Bronny instead of filling that roster spot with a veteran player who could contribute now. One would expect that a team with a highly paid 40 year old would be in win now mode, hiring an experienced championship-level coach and stacking the roster with proven veterans, but this particular 40 year old has different ideas.
The reality is that even though James is more productive than any player his age has ever been and even though he is more productive right now than all but a handful of current players, the Lakers are not going to win another title as long as he is not only on the team but running the show. In James' seven years with the Lakers, they won one "bubble title" in 2020 (James' second year in L.A.), made one fluky run to the 2023 Western Conference Finals, lost in the first round three times, and twice did not even make the playoffs. The Lakers knew that their most recent trip to the Western Conference Finals was fluky, and that is why in short order they fired the coach and remade the roster, which are not steps that management takes if that team is built for sustained success. The Lakers won the "bubble title" with a 35 year old James and a huge frontcourt that dominated the paint; now, James is five years older, his team lacks size, and his one L.A. title looks more fluky each year that he keeps getting bounced in the first round despite playing alongside first Anthony Davis and now Luka Doncic.
It will be fascinating to see the moves that the Lakers make--and don't make--prior to next season. If they are truly thinking about how to build a perennial contender around Doncic then they will hire an experienced NBA coach, they will get rid of James, his son, and other players who are unlikely to be rotation players on a championship team for the next several years, and they will use the open salary cap space and roster spots to acquire players whose skills mesh with Doncic's. Mind you, it is almost inconceivable that the Lakers will do any of those things, which means that they have not yet shifted their thinking from "LeBron runs the show" to "This is Luka's team."
Labels: Anthony Edwards, Chris Finch, J.J. Redick, L.A. Lakers, LeBron James, Luka Doncic, Minnesota Timberwolves, Rudy Gobert
posted by David Friedman @ 1:31 PM
Edwards and Towns Outduel Doncic and Irving as Timberwolves Avoid Being Swept
I enjoy analyzing complex basketball strategies, but--as Charles Barkley succinctly put it during TNT's Western Conference Finals game four telecast--sometimes basketball is a simple sport: if your team's stars outplay the other team's stars then your team has a great chance to win. That simple story explained what happened in the Minnesota Timberwolves' 105-100 win versus the Dallas Mavericks: Anthony Edwards and Karl-Anthony Towns outplayed Luka Doncic and Kyrie Irving. Edwards scored a game-high 29 points on 11-25 field goal shooting, and he led the Timberwolves in both rebounds (10) and assists (nine). Towns scored a series-high 25 points on 9-13 field goal shooting, including 4-5 from three point range. Towns was far from perfect--he fouled out in just 30 minutes of playing time as he still has not cured his habit of committing stupid fouls, and he grabbed just five rebounds--but the good outweighed the bad: he shot efficiently from the field, he attacked the paint more often than he had in recent games, he was both more accurate and more judicious on this three point attempts, and he posted his highest scoring total in his last nine playoff games. Mike Conley was steady as always (14 points on 5-9 field goal shooting along with seven assists and no turnovers in 34 minutes), and Rudy Gobert scored 13 points while tying Edwards for team-high honors with 10 rebounds.
Doncic posted his league-leading sixth triple double in the 2024 playoffs (28 points, game-high 15 rebounds, game-high 10 assists), but he shot just 7-21 from the field, had a game-worst -13 plus/minus number, and shot 1-5 from the field in the fourth quarter with the outcome up for grabs. Irving scored 16 points on 6-18 field goal shooting while dishing for four assists but amassing a team-high four turnovers. Dallas keenly felt the absence of Dereck Lively II, an active and energetic center who suffered a neck injury in game three of this series. Minnesota outrebounded Dallas 40-38 and outscored Dallas in the paint 46-36.
Facing not just elimination but the humiliation of being swept, Minnesota stormed out to a 24-12 first quarter lead, but Dallas trimmed that margin to 27-20 by the end of the first quarter and then went ahead by three points in the second quarter before settling for a 49-49 halftime tie.
Minnesota won the third quarter 29-24 as Towns scored 10 points on 4-4 field goal shooting after scoring just five first half points. Minnesota enjoyed a fourth quarter lead in each of the first three games of this series only to fall apart down the stretch, but in this game Towns (10 points), Gobert (eight points), and Edwards (six points) dominated the final stanza. Dallas countered with balanced but inefficient fourth quarter scoring, matching Minnesota with 27 points but shooting just .435 from the field while Minnesota shot .526 from the field.
Game five will be very interesting, because the Timberwolves will show if they are satisfied just to avoid being swept, or if they are excited about the opportunity to win at home and put the pressure on the Mavericks to win game six in Dallas to avoid game seven in Minnesota. The Timberwolves are bigger and deeper than the Mavericks, but that did not matter in the first three games because of how much Doncic and Irving outplayed Edwards and Towns. The Timberwolves are capable of replicating in game five at home the effort level and efficiency that they displayed in game four on the road.
What struck me most about this game, though, is the pregame commentary about Kyrie Irving. Many media members are pushing the Kyrie Irving redemption narrative, but Barkley is one of the few media members who has the courage to speak the truth about Irving. Barkley declared that many of Irving's problems were "self inflicted," noting specifically, "You can't say antisemitic stuff." Barkley concluded that Irving deserved both the criticism he received and the suspension handed down by the Brooklyn Nets in 2022 in response to Irving's unrepentant antisemitism. It is very disappointing that Ernie Johnson, Shaquille O'Neal, and Kenny Smith--who rightly do not hesitate to speak out about a host of social issues--remained silent about Irving's antisemitism, particularly at a time when both antisemitic vitriol and antisemitic violence are at unprecedented levels. In their initial response to Irving's unrepentant antisemitism, Johnson and the TNT studio crew did better, with the exception of Smith, who has consistently been off target about this issue.
Some points that I made in my November 4, 2022 article about Irving being suspended are worth repeating and emphasizing:
I know better than to try to persuade people who are willfully blind
to the truth, but when thinking about who has power, what are the limits
of free speech, and what is the nature of objective historical truth,
it is interesting to keep in mind a few facts that I have mentioned in
my previous articles about Irving:
1) Irving has more social media
followers than the Jewish population of the world. Irving has over 20
million followers, while there are fewer than 15 million Jews in a world
that has a population of nearly 8 billion people. When Irving boasts
that he has an "army" supporting him, that is not an exaggeration. He is
far from powerless both in terms of his personal, generational wealth,
and in terms of the influence that he wields. If each of his followers
spreads his messages to just five more people, Irving potentially
reaches 100 million people every time he makes a social media post.
The
Jewish people are so powerful that less than 80 years ago a third of
their population was massacred in Europe while the Jewish people were
unable to get immigration quotas lifted in any major Western country,
including America.
2) No one has challenged Irving's free speech right to post whatever he wants to post. The First Amendment protects against government restriction
of a citizen's free speech rights--but just like Irving has a right to
say what he wants to say, other people have a right to respond to him,
to question him, and to decide to not employ him or do business with
him.
3) I have seen some people assert that the film that
Irving promoted speaks the truth, and I have seen other people say some
version of "everyone has a right to speak his truth."
Regarding
the first sentiment, the movie that Irving promoted asserts that the
Holocaust never happened, that Jews controlled the trans-Atlantic slave
trade, and that Jews worship Satan. Those statements are all
demonstrably false. This would be equivalent to a white supremacist
stating that slavery never happened, that Black people are responsible
for harming white people on a massive scale, and that Black people
worship Satan. If you support Irving's promotion of antisemitic
falsehoods, then you have no standing to challenge white supremacists
who state that they are not attacking Black people but rather defending
white people, and you definitely need to stop talking about so-called
"micro-aggressions." To be clear, I find both white supremacy and
Holocaust denial to be offensive; I condemn both. I just don't want to
hear about "micro-aggressions" from people who endorse
"macro-aggressions" that contradict historical truth and contribute to a
climate in which antisemitic violence is soaring to unprecedented
levels.
Regarding the second sentiment, this notion that
there is not an objective truth but that each person has his or her own
"truth" is precisely what George Orwell warned about in his classic
dystopian novel 1984. If words lose their objective meaning and
if history can be whatever each person believes it to be then we have no
shared past and no shared future because there are no longer standards
for what is right, what is wrong, what is true, and what is false. There
are far too many people in our society who would love to take our
educational system in that direction. The Soviet Union tried it, China
is doing it now, Cuba is doing it now, and we have seen--without
fail--that every nation that goes down this path ends up persecuting its
own people and terrorizing its neighbors.
To anyone who suggests that the above commentary does not belong in a game recap, my response is that Irving's on court revival and his off court issues are two separate matters, but too many people are acting as if Irving's willingness to be a better teammate has some connection with the abhorrent views that he promoted and refused to disavow--and as long as that confusion is being propagated and as long as even otherwise standup people like Ernie Johnson are silent I will speak loudly to confront the confusion and the silence.
It is demonstrably true that Irving had a negative impact on team chemistry with multiple teams prior to being acquired by Dallas last season. He has not been in Dallas very long, but up to this point it appears like he has become a better teammate and--for the first time in his career--is demonstrating leadership qualities. Good for him as a basketball player--but what Irving says, does, and stands for away from the basketball court is far more important, and I will conclude by repeating the key point that I made two years ago when Irving promoted antisemitic tropes, and that I repeated in this article, because the truth about this simply cannot be stated too many times:
If you support Irving's promotion of antisemitic
falsehoods, then you have no standing to challenge white supremacists
who state that they are not attacking Black people but rather defending
white people, and you definitely need to stop talking about so-called
"micro-aggressions."
During yesterday's pregame show, Kenny Smith made the bizarre statement that he urged Stephen A. Smith to stop criticizing Irving because they are all from the same neighborhood. Would Smith apply that same reasoning to preclude white people from criticizing racists who come from their neighborhoods? The normalization of antisemitism is frightening, and portends doom for our society, because any society that targets the weakest groups has lost its moral bearings.
Labels: Anthony Edwards, Charles Barkley, Dallas Mavericks, Ernie Johnson, Karl-Anthony Towns, Kenny Smith, Luka Doncic, Minnesota Timberwolves, Rudy Gobert, Shaquille O'Neal
posted by David Friedman @ 12:40 PM
Doncic, Irving Each Score 33 Points as Dallas Beats Minnesota 116-107 to Take a 3-0 Lead
Luka Doncic scored 33 points on 10-20 field goal shooting and Kyrie Irving scored 33 points on 12-20 field goal shooting as the Dallas Mavericks beat the Minnesota Timberwolves, 116-107. The Mavericks lead the Western Conference Finals 3-0, and can complete a sweep with a home win on Tuesday night. P.J. Washington added 16 points and a team-high eight rebounds. Derrick Jones Jr. scored 11 points and a had a game-best +15 plus/minus number. Dereck Lively II scored six points on 3-3 field goal shooting in just nine minutes before exiting the game for good after taking an inadvertent blow to the head from Karl-Anthony Towns.
Anthony Edwards had his best game of the series with 26 points, nine rebounds, and a game-high nine assists but the player prematurely touted as the next Michael Jordan was the game's sixth leading scorer in the fourth quarter (four points) and that just is not good enough--nor is it good enough for him to be the third best player (behind Doncic and Irving) in this series. When was Jordan ever the third best player in any playoff series? Mike Conley (16 points, four assists, just one turnover) and Naz Reid (14 points ) once again did their jobs, but Karl-Anthony Towns scored 14 points on 5-18 field goal shooting, including 0-8 from three point range. Rudy Gobert had nine points on 4-4 field goal shooting and six rebounds in 28 minutes. The people blaming Gobert for Minnesota's losses have yet to explain how it is his fault that Towns is misfiring from three point range and refusing to use his size effectively in the paint.
In the fourth quarter with the game and the series on the line, Dallas outscored Minnesota 29-20. In those decisive 12 minutes, Dallas shot .733 from the field and held Minnesota to .450 field goal shooting, but what should be even more disturbing to Minnesota than those numbers is that Minnesota jacked up eight three pointers in the final stanza and made just one. Minnesota made the move that Draymond Green has been screaming about--playing Gobert just 2:47 in the final 12 minutes--and the Timberwolves had not just their worst quarter of the game but their worst quarter of the series.
I picked Minnesota to win this series because I expected their big men to dominate the paint while Edwards played Doncic to a draw. I also thought that Minnesota's rangy wing defenders could do a reasonable job containing Irving. Minnesota has failed to meet all three of those expectations, and that is why they trail 3-0. I don't think that it is premature for me to admit that I was wrong about this series. Although the three games have been decided by a total of 13 points, the same patterns have happened in each game, and at this point there is no reason to think that those patterns will change: Minnesota is not playing efficient or intelligent offense, Doncic is outplaying Edwards by a large margin, and Irving is having his way with anyone who tries to guard him.
In my previous game recaps from this series, I explained why the anti-Gobert narrative being trumpeted by Draymond Green is nonsense so I will not repeat that analysis here other than to emphasize again that throughout the playoffs and in this series the number show that the Timberwolves are better when Gobert is on the court than when he is on the bench. All other things being equal or close to equal, NBA playoff series are often decided by the star matchups--even if the stars are not going head to head on every possession--and this series is being decided by that fact that Doncic and Irving are outplaying Edwards and Towns by a large margin.
Labels: Anthony Edwards, Dallas Mavericks, Karl-Anthony Towns, Kyrie Irving, Luka Doncic, Minnesota Timberwolves, P.J. Washington, Rudy Gobert
posted by David Friedman @ 3:24 AM
Doncic Drains Game-Winning Three Pointer as Mavericks Take 2-0 Lead Over Timberwolves
Luka Doncic led both teams in points, rebounds, and assists (32/10/13 respectively) and hit the game-winning three pointer as the Dallas Mavericks beat the Minnesota Timberwolves 109-108 to take a 2-0 Western Conference Finals lead. Doncic joined Nikola Jokic (2023), Magic Johnson (1982) and Wilt Chamberlain (1967) in the select group of players who posted four triple doubles in a five game span during the playoffs. Jokic, Johnson, and Chamberlain each won championships during their special triple double playoff campaigns. Kyrie Irving added 20 points and six assists. Daniel Gafford (16 points on 8-10 field goal shooting) and Dereck Lively II (14 points on 6-6 field goal shooting) led the way inside as Dallas outscored Minnesota 54-42 in the paint. Doncic (16 points), Irving (15 points), and Gafford (10 points) nearly
matched Minnesota's second half scoring total (48 points) as Dallas
outscored Minnesota 61-48 overall in the second half while holding the Timberwolves to .389
field goal shooting.
The series shifts to Dallas for games three and four with Minnesota crashing down from the high of eliminating the 2023 NBA champion Denver Nuggets and now trying to avoid being swept.
The Timberwolves had a horrific offensive performance, shooting just .414 (35-85) from the field. Naz Reid scored a team-high 23 points on 8-13 field goal shooting, including 7-9 from three point range. Mike Conley was his usual steady, dependable self with 18 points on 7-14 field goal shooting, five assists, and five rebounds. Rudy Gobert--everyone's favorite scapegoat lately--had 16 points on 6-10 field goal shooting plus a game-high 10 rebounds (tied with Doncic). He had a plus/minus number of +1. Those three players each did their jobs. In contrast, Minnesota's two All-Stars fell well short of reasonable expectations. Anthony Edwards had 21 points and a team-high seven assists, but he shot just 5-17 from the field and had a game-worst -9 plus/minus number. Edwards shot 6-24 from the field as Minnesota beat Denver in game seven, and he shot 6-16 from the field in game one versus Dallas. He looks worn down, and he is playing like he is worn down, which is puzzling for a young player who seems to be in great shape and who is being promoted as the next big thing. Karl-Anthony Towns was even worse than Edwards, scoring 15 points on 4-16 field goal shooting; he was not in his usual foul trouble, but he played only 26 minutes.
The relevant storylines from this game are (1) Luka Doncic is great, (2) Anthony Edwards and Karl-Anthony Towns are playing well below All-Star level, and (3) the Timberwolves are not playing efficiently or intelligently on offense.
The media driven narrative from this game is that everything is Rudy Gobert's fault; leading the charge of the intellectually-light brigade is Draymond Green, who is available to provide TV commentary because his Golden State Warriors lost in the Play-In Tournament. Watching Green's Moby Dick-like obsession with bringing down Gobert, one is forced to conclude that Green either does not understand basketball, or that he cannot speak rationally about this series because he is so jealous that Gobert has won four Defensive Player of the Year awards.
An intelligent, unbiased commentator would talk about Anthony Edwards--crowned by some as the next Michael Jordan after winning two playoff series--playing passively and shooting poorly throughout the game before throwing the ball away with 12.8 seconds remaining in the fourth quarter; that miscue set up Doncic's game-winning shot when the Timberwolves had an opportunity to take a two possession lead.
An intelligent, unbiased commentator would talk about Towns playing so poorly that his coach benched him for most of the second half.
An intelligent, unbiased commentator would talk about the final possession of the game when Dallas gave up an open three pointer to Naz Reid even though Reid was the hottest three point shooter in the game. Reid's shot barely missed, but just as it could be argued that Minnesota should not have given up a three pointer to Doncic with a two point lead it could also be argued that Dallas should not have given up an open shot to Reid, one of the few Minnesota players who shot well in this game.
Instead, Green focused his attention on Gobert, sounding like a little kid on the playground teasing another kid as opposed to sounding like an intelligent, unbiased commentator analyzing what happened. It is valid to question why Minnesota left Gobert in the game for the last defensive possession instead of going small, switching everything, and forcing Dallas to shoot a two point shot--but it is silly to act as if Gobert is personally responsible for Doncic hitting the kind of shot that he has hit many times before against many other players.
Gobert has one of the best plus/minus numbers overall during the 2024 playoffs, and the Timberwolves have outscored the Mavericks during his minutes this series while being outscored when Gobert is out of the game. I would not be surprised if "Screamin' A" Smith acted as if an entire 48 minute NBA game can be boiled down to one shot, but intelligent commentators understand that the last play is not necessarily what decided the outcome. Here, the Timberwolves enjoyed a 16 point third quarter lead before their offense fell apart; are we supposed to pretend like all of those empty offensive possessions had nothing to do with the final result?
Green is either an idiot or a buffoon: he either does not know what he is talking about, or he does not care how foolish he sounds. It is interesting that Kenny Smith was the only person on the TNT set who was willing to even tentatively challenge Green's nonsense both before and after the game. Smith noted that the Timberwolves have outscored the Mavericks during Gobert's minutes, and Smith emphasized that Doncic could have made that last shot over anyone, not just Gobert. Charles Barkley and Shaquille O'Neal did not contradict Green, but they correctly focused on Towns' shortcomings and they made the valid point that if the Timberwolves are going to play big then their big men must play with force in the paint. The Timberwolves' problem is that they are not attacking the paint offensively--and that problem must be fixed by Edwards and Towns. The problem is not drop coverage or Rudy Gobert or any other nonsense spewed by Green. If Green keeps lying about Gobert it would be great if someone had the guts to tell the truth about Green, and his triple single exploits on .389 field goal shooting for the 15-50 Warriors during the 2019-20 season when Green did not have Kevin Durant, Stephen Curry, Klay Thompson, or Andre Iguodala to do the heavy lifting. I'll double down on what I said before: Green will be inducted in the Basketball Hall of Fame primarily because he was lucky enough to play alongside those four players.
It is also worth mentioning that Green went 0-3 versus Minnesota this season, and 1-2 last season (Golden State beat Minnesota once in 2022-23 when Green did not play, an example of addition by subtraction). If Green is so smart, maybe he should use that big brain to figure out how to do better than 1-5 versus the player and team that he keeps mocking.
The NBA and TNT should have been embarrassed to put Green on the air in the first place after his numerous violent incidents, and they should be even more embarrassed by how he is doing his part-time job. When David Stern was the NBA's Commissioner, he took the consistent position that it was important to promote the game and uplift the players. How does it promote the game to uplift a violent and petty person like Green to a position of prominence so that Green can mock the league's Defensive Player of the Year? If Gobert is as bad as Green suggests, then either the league is trash, or the media members who do the voting are idiots; neither scenario is a good look for the league.
Green's laser focus on Gobert not only demeans Gobert specifically and the NBA product in general, but it diminishes Doncic's greatness. Unlike Green's buddy LeBron James, Doncic does not complain about his teammates or whine about his injuries. Doncic gets the job done without making excuses. Doncic's greatness is the story, and that should be the focus, not Green's weird vendetta against Gobert.
Labels: Anthony Edwards, Dallas Mavericks, Karl-Anthony Towns, Kyrie Irving, Luka Doncic, Minnesota Timberwolves, Rudy Gobert
posted by David Friedman @ 1:45 AM
Tag Team: Kyrie Scores Early, Luka Dominates Late as Dallas Downs Timberwolves to Take Homecourt Advantage
Kyrie Irving scored 24 first quarter points and Luka Doncic scored 19 second half points--including 15 in the fourth quarter--as the Dallas Mavericks defeated the Minnesota Timberwolves 108-105 to seize homecourt advantage in the Western Conference Finals. Doncic (33 points, eight assists, six rebounds) and Irving (30 points, five rebounds, four assists) were the game's top two scorers and most dominant players, but some of the overall team numbers are eye-opening: the Mavericks won the rebounding battle 48-40, and they outscored the Timberwolves in the paint 62-38. During the regular season, the Timberwolves ranked 23rd in the league in three point field goals attempted (32.7 per game), but in this game they jacked up 49 treys and that is just not the optimal way for them to play even though they shot a respectable .367 from beyond the arc; when a team takes more than half of its shots from three point range it is not attacking the paint, it is not getting the opposing team in foul trouble, it is less able to set up its halfcourt defense, and overall it is engaging in a high variance approach that has repeatedly been proven to not lead to championship success. The Mavericks shot terribly from three point range (6-25, .240) but they won the game in no small part because they shot half as many three pointers as the Timberwolves; the Mavericks relentlessly attacked the paint and were so successful in that regard that they survived their poor three point shooting.
Jaden McDaniels led the Timberwolves with 24 points, but the Timberwolves need more from Anthony Edwards than 19 points on 6-16 field goal shooting. Edwards led the Timberwolves in rebounding (11) and assists (eight), but after the game he explained away the loss by asserting that his team was tired. That may be true, but he is a young player who has been favorably compared to Michael Jordan; being tired is not an option and not a valid excuse in the Conference Finals: the Timberwolves follow Edwards' lead, and the correct approach is (1) for Edwards to be more aggressive attacking the hoop and (2) for Edwards to take responsibility after the game instead of providing any excuses.
Karl-Anthony Towns had just 16 points on 6-20 field goal shooting, including 2-9 from three point range. He must challenge Dallas in the paint and stop settling for long jumpers. Edwards and Towns combined to attempt 21 three pointers, which was nearly a fourth of Minnesota's field goal attempts. Edwards is the team's best driver and Towns is (or should be) the team's best post up threat, so when both players are settling for three pointers they are letting the defense off the hook. After the game, Towns acknowledged that Minnesota's "three big lineup is our biggest advantage" and he said that the Timberwolves must be tougher in the paint than they were in game one.
Rudy Gobert will almost always be the scapegoat after Minnesota loses, particularly when biased or uninformed people are given microphones on national broadcasts. Gobert had 12 points on 4-8 field goal shooting, plus seven rebounds and two blocked shots. He is supposedly "unplayable," yet he had a team-best +10 plus/minus number: the Timberwolves won his 38 minutes by 10 points and were outscored by 13 points in the 10 minutes when he was off of the court. At that pace, if the Timberwolves had cut his minutes then they would have lost by double digits. The more one listens to Draymond Green insult Gobert during TNT's telecasts the more one realizes that (1) Green is very biased and petty, (2) his basketball IQ is not nearly as high as advertised, and (3) he is blessed that he rode alongside Kevin Durant, Stephen Curry, Klay Thompson, Andre Iguodala, and others to four championships instead of spending his career racking up triple singles for a losing team, as he did during the 2019-20 season when Durant, Curry, Thompson, and Iguodala were not available to rescue him. It is true that Green's defense and passing contributed to Golden State's success, but the reality is that Green is a hotheaded and violent role player who complemented the great players around him, and not the great player that he is purported to be.
During his postgame media availability, Minnesota Coach Chris Finch made two very pertinent observations: he criticized his team's "terrible offense down the stretch," and he noted that Dallas attacked the paint with impunity when Gobert was not in the game. The boxscore numbers cited above support both points. Finch claimed to be OK with the quality of the three pointers that his team took, but I doubt that in game two Minnesota will jack up 49 three pointers while being dominated in the paint.
In my series preview, I picked Minnesota to win this series in six games because "their size will enable them to control the paint at both ends of the
court, and because Anthony Edwards will play Luka Doncic to at least a
draw." In game one, Dallas dominated the paint, and Doncic outplayed Edwards. The natural overreaction would be to assume that game two will be just like game one, but the reality is that momentum does not exist in a playoff series. Doncic and Irving may very well combine for 60-plus points again, but that should not be enough for Dallas to win if the Timberwolves use their size advantage effectively at both ends of the court.
Labels: Anthony Edwards, Dallas Mavericks, Karl-Anthony Towns, Kyrie Irving, Luka Doncic, Minnesota Timberwolves, Rudy Gobert
posted by David Friedman @ 2:00 AM
Minnesota Versus Dallas Preview
Western Conference Finals
#3 Minnesota (56-26) vs. #5 Dallas (50-32)
Season series: Minnesota, 3-1
Dallas can win if…Luka Doncic averages a 30 point triple double, Kyrie Irving averages at least 23 ppg and at least 7 apg, and Dallas' big men hold their own against Minnesota's big and versatile frontcourt. Doncic averaged 24.7 ppg, 10.5 rpg, and 8.7 apg as Dallas upset the number one seeded Oklahoma City Thunder 4-2 in the second round, and during the 2024 playoffs Doncic is averaging 27.3 ppg, 9.7 rpg, and 9.1 apg (first in the league). Doncic, who won his first regular season scoring title this year (33.9
ppg), is consistently great, but his 2024 playoff scoring is lower than
his playoff scoring in 2021 and 2022 when he led the league in that
category (35.7 ppg in 2021, 31.7 ppg in 2022); the decrease in Doncic's scoring is partly because he has more help around him, and partly because he has been slowed at times by a host of nagging injuries. It is unlikely that Doncic will ever be a defensive stopper, but he has improved at that end of the court to the extent that opposing teams target him less often and have less success when they target him.
Kyrie Irving had some good moments versus Oklahoma City, but overall he barely played at an All-Star level, let alone at the level of the all-time great that he is supposed to be; he averaged 15.7 ppg, 6.2 apg, and 2.3 rpg, numbers that are below his overall 2024 playoff statistics (21.1 ppg, 5.4 apg, 4.0 apg). Many TV commentators gush over Irving's ballhandling skills, but of greater importance to Dallas' winning chances are (1) his improved defensive effort this season and especially during the playoffs, and (2) his proven ability to be the second option on a championship team (2016 Cleveland Cavaliers).
The difference for the Mavericks between missing the playoffs last season and reaching the Western Conference Finals this season is the play of their midseason acquisitions P.J. Washington and Daniel Gafford, two players who provide size, rebounding, and toughness. Washington was Dallas' second best player in the Oklahoma City series, averaging 17.7 ppg and 8.3 rpg while leading the team in three point field goals made (23) and three point field goal percentage (.469). Gafford led the team in blocked shots (2.0 bpg) versus Oklahoma City while also averaging 11.0 ppg and 7.5 rpg.
Gafford, Washington, and rookie Dereck Lively II give the Mavericks a much-needed paint presence at both ends of the court, but they face a significant challenge matching up with Minnesota's Karl-Anthony Towns, Rudy Gobert, and Naz Reid.
Minnesota will win because…their size will enable them to control the paint at both ends of the court, and because Anthony Edwards will play Luka Doncic to at least a draw. The Timberwolves can throw a host of long-armed, rangy defenders at Irving--and Edwards has already publicly relished the opportunity to guard Irving. Oklahoma City's younger and bigger perimeter players gave Irving problems at both ends of the court, and Minnesota is a better defensive team than Oklahoma City. The Timberwolves will not shut down Doncic, but they have enough wing defenders and enough paint presence to prevent a steady diet of 40 point explosions.
Minnesota's big man trio earned a host of awards this season, and they overpowered the big, physical Denver Nuggets in the second round. Towns made the All-Star team for the fourth time, Gobert won his
record-tying fourth Defensive Player of the Year award, and Reid won the
Sixth Man of the Year award. Towns is a three level scorer, Gobert is
an elite rim protector who scores efficiently in the paint, and Reid
provides an athletic and energetic presence at both ends of the court.
Edwards is being prematurely crowned as the next Michael Jordan--Jordan won six Finals MVPs and six championships, while Edwards has won two playoff series so far--but if you ignore the hype and just watch his game then you will like what you see. Edwards is a three level scorer who is a deft and willing passer, and he is also an enthusiastic and effective defensive player. It is fair to say that he looks like a player who could be a perennial MVP contender, but it is ridiculous to compare a young player who is just starting his NBA journey with Jordan, who had no skill set weaknesses and who utilized his superlative skills to transform the Chicago Bulls into a dominant team.
Other things to consider: While other franchises try to "tank to the top" or assemble "super teams," the Timberwolves built their roster organically. Tim Connelly, who laid the foundation of the Denver Nuggets' championship success before becoming Minnesota's President of Basketball Operations, assembled the Timberwolves' roster with the understanding that size matters in the NBA at both ends of the court. "Stat gurus" mocked Connelly's trade for Rudy Gobert, but Connelly did not panic after the Timberwolves lost 4-1 to the Denver Nuggets in the 2023 playoffs. Connelly ignored the noise about Gobert being unplayable in today's "pace and space" NBA--noise that could still be heard during the second round of this year's playoffs before the Timberwolves won games six and seven to send the Nuggets home for the summer. The Timberwolves have Mike Conley's veteran, stabilizing influence at point guard, Anthony Edwards' superstar potential on the wing, and the big man trio discussed above. Their bench is excellent, and the biggest difference this season is that the team's maturity level has risen dramatically; there is no internal strife, and they have vastly reduced their bonehead plays that once inspired Charles Barkley to declare that they are "dumb as rocks."
In contrast, Mark Cuban has publicly embraced tanking--a disgraceful stance for which the NBA has fined him twice--and it is interesting to observe the favorable media coverage that he continues to receive despite (1) the Mavericks not being particularly successful on the court for most of his tenure and (2) the Mavericks' well-documented dysfunctional workplace culture that Cuban implausibly claimed that he knew nothing about. Cuban prematurely cast aside much of Dirk Nowitzki's supporting cast after the Mavericks won the 2011 NBA title, and as a result of that blunder--and other personnel miscues while Cuban ran the team's basketball operations--the Mavericks did not win a playoff series again until 2022. Then, Cuban responded to that success by letting Jalen Brunson walk away in free agency, and the Mavericks missed the playoffs in 2023. Therefore, it is perhaps not surprising that the Mavericks' success this season coincides with Cuban selling his majority interest in the team and taking a step back from controlling basketball operations. Cuban placed himself in the enviable position of remaining the public face of the franchise while enabling smarter people to make basketball decisions for which many media members will still give him credit.
Minnesota will defeat Dallas in six games.
Labels: Anthony Edwards, Dallas Mavericks, Karl-Anthony Towns, Kyrie Irving, Luka Doncic, Mike Conley, Minnesota Timberwolves, Naz Reid, P.J. Washington, Rudy Gobert
posted by David Friedman @ 10:26 PM
Timberwolves Stun Nuggets in Denver With Biggest Second Half Comeback in NBA Game Seven History
The Denver Nuggets led the Minnesota Timberwolves 53-38 at halftime and 58-38 early in the third quarter in game seven at Denver, but the Timberwolves closed the game with a 60-32 run to eliminate the defending champions, 98-90. The Timberwolves thus pulled off the biggest second half comeback since the NBA began tracking play by play data 25 years ago. The Timberwolves prevailed in a roller coaster series during which they won the first two games in Denver, then lost three games in a row--including games three and four at home--before winning game six at home and game seven on the road. One might think that it would be uncommon for the defending champion to lose game seven at home, but the Nuggets are the ninth NBA defending champion to be eliminated at home in game seven. Some defending champions, such as the L.A. Lakers in 2021, were eliminated by a home loss even earlier than game seven in the second round; those Lakers lost game six at home in the first round.
Karl-Anthony Towns led Minnesota in scoring (23 points) and rebounding (12), while Jaden McDaniels matched Towns with 23 points. Anthony Edwards had 16 points, eight rebounds, and a game-high seven assists, but he shot just 6-24 from the field--including four points on 1-7 field goal shooting in the first half. The much-maligned Rudy Gobert made his presence felt with 13 points, nine rebounds, and two blocked shots, while Mike Conley was a steadying influence with 10 points, eight rebounds, four assists, and a game-best +14 plus/minus number. Naz Reid added 11 points off of the bench, and his defense and energy provided a big boost.
Jamal Murray scored a game-high 35 points on 13-27 field goal shooting, but the Timberwolves pressured him in the second half and held him to 11 points on 5-12 field goal shooting in the final 24 minutes. Nikola Jokic had 34 points on 13-28 field goal shooting, plus a game-high 19 rebounds, and a game-high seven assists. He shot poorly from three point range (2-10), but other than that it is difficult to find much to criticize about his performance. Road wins in game seven used to be rare in the NBA--the
home team won 21 straight game sevens from 1982-1995--but this is the
second time that Jokic's Nuggets have blown a double digit lead
at home in game seven: they squandered a 17 point lead to Portland in
2019.
Murray dominated the first quarter, scoring 13 points on 5-10 field goal shooting as Denver led 24-19 after the first stanza. Murray added 11 second quarter points as the Nuggets seemed to be pulling away for good, but the Timberwolves used a balanced attack to outscore the Nuggets 28-14 in the third quarter while also winning the rebounding battle 15-8. Jokic scored 14 fourth quarter points, but only two other Nuggets scored at all while six Timberwolves combined to score 32 points. The Timberwolves took the lead for good when Conley's three pointer at the 9:26 mark made the score 75-72. The Timberwolves enjoyed at least a two possession advantage for the final 4:10.
TNT's Kenny Smith made an excellent point in the postgame show when he noted that the narratives about star players are often shaped by
team results: Edwards' poor shooting will be forgotten, Smith asserted, and
the narrative will be that Edwards was poised down the stretch and that he
trusted his teammates. I don't base my analysis and commentary on narratives promoted by others, but it is legitimate to ask how to distinguish Edwards' play from how James Harden typically performs in an elimination game.
There are several differences between Edwards' inefficient game seven performance and James Harden's pathetic elimination game resume: Edwards led his teammates instead of separating himself from them, Edwards played hard on defense, Edwards played aggressively on offense in a way that tilted the defense toward him to open up opportunities for his teammates, and even with his errant shooting Edwards still easily avoided the dreaded "Harden," which refers to accumulating more turnovers than field goals made (Edwards had just one turnover).
Speaking of narratives, three-time regular season MVP Jokic will likely be criticized for "failing" to lead his team to a repeat championship, as if this is a significant shortcoming. It is easy to forget that only a few players led their teams to repeat titles:
- George Mikan--voted the best basketball player of the first half of the 20th century--led the Minneapolis Lakers to five championships in six years (1949-50, 1952-54).
- Bill Russell--the greatest winner in the history of North American team sports--led the Boston Celtics to 11 championships in 13 seasons (1957, 1959-66, 1968-69).
- Magic Johnson, Kareem Abdul-Jabbar, and James Worthy led the L.A. Lakers to back to back championships (1987-88).
- Isiah Thomas led the Detroit Pistons to back to back championships (1989-90).
- Michael Jordan and Scottie Pippen led the Chicago Bulls to a pair of threepeats (1991-93, 1996-98).
- Hakeem Olajuwon led the Houston Rockets to back to back championships (1994-95).
- Shaquille O'Neal and Kobe Bryant led the L.A. Lakers to a threepeat (2000-02).
- Kobe Bryant led the Lakers to back to back championships (2009-10).
- LeBron James and Dwyane Wade led the Miami Heat to back to back championships (2012-13).
- Kevin Durant and Stephen Curry led the Golden State Warriors to back to back championships (2017-18).
The players mentioned above played for all of their listed repeat or threepeat squads and were selected to the NBA's 50 Greatest Players List, the NBA's 75th Anniversary Team, or both all-time teams. Note that Isiah Thomas is the only player from prior to 2009 who led his team to back to back championships without playing alongside another player on the NBA's 50 Greatest Players List. Dennis Rodman, who played for both the 1989-90 Pistons and the 1996-98 Bulls, was selected to the NBA's 75th Anniversary Team. Hakeem Olajuwon's 1995 championship team had Clyde Drexler, who was selected to both the NBA's 50 Greatest Players List and the NBA's 75th Anniversary Team. Kobe Bryant is the only player to lead his team to back to back championships without playing alongside a player on either the NBA's 50 Greatest Players List or the NBA's 75th Anniversary Team.
Jokic has yet to play with a single All-Star player, let alone a member of one of the NBA's all-time teams. If Jokic had led Denver to repeat titles he would have placed himself in a unique category in terms of winning multiple championships without another superstar or even another star.
After Durant fled Golden State in 2019 to go to Brooklyn (and then Phoenix), no NBA champion has even made it back to the NBA Finals the next season (but the Warriors eventually made it back in 2022 and won a title without Durant). Half of the 14 members of my pro basketball Pantheon--Elgin Baylor, Oscar Robertson, Jerry West, Wilt Chamberlain, Julius Erving, Larry Bird, and Tim Duncan--never won repeat titles. Jokic may win repeat titles late in his career like Abdul-Jabbar, he may win several titles without ever repeating, or he may finish his career with one championship. That uncertainty surrounding any active player is a major reason that the first iteration of my Pantheon included 10 retired players, supplemented by just four (then) active players, three of whom had already won multiple titles when I first put together my Pantheon.
The Nuggets won the 2023 NBA championship
because of Jokic's all-around brilliance combined with Murray's clutch
shooting and the team's ability to overwhelm opponents with their size.
Although I picked Denver to win this series, I
noted that Denver and Minnesota are mirror images of each other because
their rosters were built by the same man--Tim Connelly--with the same
underlying basketball philosophy that values size and physicality. In this series, the Timberwolves
"out-Nuggeted" the Nuggets, using their size to dominate the paint and
wear down Jokic and Murray. It will be very interesting to see how far Edwards and the Timberwolves advance not only this year but for the next several years. Will this prove to be a fluky Conference Finals run like the recent runs authored by the Atlanta Hawks and Portland Trail Blazers, or is this just the start of a sustained run of excellence? The Hawks and Trail Blazers were each led by a small guard who is averse to defense, while the Timberwolves are a defensive powerhouse stacked with excellent big man and led by a tremendously talented "midsize" player, so those distinctions should give a good hint regarding how sustainable Minnesota's success will prove to be.
Labels: Anthony Edwards, Denver Nuggets, Jamal Murray, Karl-Anthony Towns, Minnesota Timberwolves, Nikola Jokic, Rudy Gobert
posted by David Friedman @ 12:57 AM
Timberwolves Devour Nuggets, Force Game Seven
The Minnesota Timberwolves routed the Denver Nuggets 115-70 to force a game seven on Sunday in Denver. Anthony Edwards scored a game-high 27 points and posted a game-best plus/minus number that looks like a typographical error: +43. Jaden McDaniels scored 21 points, just the third 20 point game of his playoff career. Mike Conley returned to action after missing one game with a calf strain, and his calming influence was evident at both ends of the court to a far greater extent than his boxscore numbers (13 points, five assists) suggest. Karl-Anthony Towns scored just 10 points on 4-10 field goal shooting, but he made his presence felt with 13 rebounds and five assists. The allegedly "unplayable" Rudy Gobert had eight points, a game-high 14 rebounds, and the game's second best plus/minus number (+30). He did not block a shot, but his paint presence and activity helped the Timberwolves outscore the Nuggets in the paint 46-36 while holding the Nuggets to the worst field goal percentage (.302) and lowest scoring total in the franchise's playoff history. Naz Reid added 10 points and 11 rebounds in 22 minutes off of the bench as Minnesota won the rebounding battle, 62-43.
Nikola Jokic had a solid game while leading the Nuggets with 22 points and nine rebounds, but the Timberwolves can live with those numbers; their size and their timely double teams held Jokic below his usual production, but the Nuggets did not exploit their opportunities to play four on three: Nuggets not named Jokic shot 17-67 (.254) from the field, with Aaron Gordon scoring 12 points on 4-7 field goal shooting while the other Nuggets faded into oblivion. Jamal Murray had just 10 points on 4-18 field goal shooting.
This game is a resounding demonstration that momentum does not exist in an NBA playoff series. After Denver's convincing game five win--the Nuggets' third straight victory after losing the first two games at home--it seemed like the Timberwolves had no chance to extend the series; that is what I thought as well--not based on momentum, but based on my unwavering belief that the Nuggets are the better team. The Nuggets finished one game ahead of the Timberwolves during the regular season, and that slender margin determined that Denver will host game seven. History suggests that homecourt advantage in general--and homecourt advantage in game seven in particular--matters a lot. The Timberwolves are unlikely to get 36 points off of their bench in game seven, and the Nuggets are highly unlikely to shoot so horribly in the friendly confines of their home arena.
The Nuggets shot 7-36 (.194) from three point range, including 2-9 in the first quarter as the Timberwolves sprinted to a 31-14 lead. During the halftime show, ESPN's Bob Myers made two excellent points: 1) Denver missed wide open three pointers, and 2) when you are missing three pointers--even if they are open--you should stop shooting them, put your head down, and drive to the hoop. During the season, the Nuggets ranked 30th (last) in three point field goals attempted (31.2 per game) and 10th in three point field goal percentage, so it is out of character both for them to shoot that poorly from beyond the arc and for them to shoot so many treys. High volume three point shooting leads to high variance results; in Denver's game five win, the Nuggets shot 9-19 (.474) from three point range, and those kind of numbers are what one should expect to see in game seven, regardless of whether or not the Timberwolves keep double teaming Jokic: there is not a requirement that after a star player is trapped his teammates must keep jacking up three pointers.
The prevailing narrative after game five is that Minnesota's loss was Rudy Gobert's fault, that the four-time Defensive Player of the Year is "unplayable," and that Jokic humiliated Gobert. Inconvenient facts were conveniently ignored (this is a media specialty that extends well beyond NBA coverage): in game five, Gobert contributed 18 points on 7-7 field goal shooting plus a
game-high 11 rebounds with a -2 plus/minus number while every other Minnesota
starter was -12 or worse, but let's not talk about that. Instead, let's give a microphone to the guy who punched Jusuf Nurkic in the face and put Gobert in a headlock. What does Draymond Green think about Gobert's performance?
Green provided unintentional comedy during his Wednesday night guest appearance on TNT when he said that he guards Jokic better than anyone who is guarding Jokic during this series. Green also declared that it is unacceptable to let Jokic be both a big-time scorer and a big-time playmaker; you have to take something away, Green solemnly declared--as if he is the man to do that job. Perhaps Green does not know that boxscores from all of his games are available online; the last time the Green faced Jokic, Jokic had 32 points, 16 rebounds, and 16 assists as Denver beat Green's Golden State Warriors, 119-103. Jokic shot 13-24 from the field and had a +20 plus/minus number, while Green logged his customary triple single (seven points, five rebounds, four assists) along with a game-high six turnovers and a game-worst -23 plus/minus number. Yes, Jokic had as many rebounds as Green had points, rebounds, and assists combined! Some players say that journalists who have never played the game are not qualified to analyze the game--but, with all due respect to Green, his personal experience does not seem to qualify him to speak about how to effectively guard Jokic, and the obvious personal grudges that Green has against Gobert, Nurkic, and other players disqualify him as an objective commentator.
Green is going to ride his triple single career averages (8.7 ppg, 7.0 rpg, 5.6 apg) all the way to the Naismith Memorial Basketball Hall of Fame because he was lucky enough to play alongside Kevin Durant, Stephen Curry, Klay Thompson, and Andre Iguodala. Is "lucky" a fair adjective? What would Green's career have looked like without those guys? Glad you asked: in the 2019-20 season, Iguodala and Durant were gone (Green played a role in chasing Durant away, but that is another story), Thompson missed the whole season due to injury, and Curry played in just five games due to injury. Green showed the world who he really is as a player, averaging 8.0 ppg on .389 field goal shooting along with 6.2 rpg and 6.2 apg for a 15-50 team. So, yes, "lucky" seems about right.
The real story of this series has nothing to do with the incessant narratives about momentum or Gobert being "unplayable" or Edwards being the next Michael Jordan. The real story of this series is that these two teams are mirror images of each other because their rosters were built by the same executive, Tim Connelly: both teams are big and physical, both teams defend well, and neither team relies on "pace and space." The Nuggets have Jokic and homecourt advantage, and those two factors are likely to be the difference in game seven.
Labels: Anthony Edwards, Denver Nuggets, Draymond Green, Jamal Murray, Karl-Anthony Towns, Minnesota Timberwolves, Nikola Jokic, Rudy Gobert
posted by David Friedman @ 12:39 AM
