Boston Versus Dallas Preview
NBA Finals
Boston (64-18) vs. Dallas (50-30)
Season series: Boston, 2-0
Dallas can win if…Luka Doncic produces efficient 25-plus point triple doubles, Kyrie Irving continues to be an effective second option, and the Mavericks' young big men control the paint. Doncic is having a playoff run for the ages, with a league-best six triple doubles in 17 playoff games as the Mavericks upset three higher seeded teams (the L.A. Clippers, the number one seeded Oklahoma City Thunder, and the Minnesota Timberwolves) to reach the NBA Finals for the first time since Dirk Nowitzki carried Dallas to the 2011 NBA title. During the 2024 playoffs, Doncic is averaging 28.8 ppg (seventh in the league), 9.6 rpg (ninth in the league), and 8.8 apg (first in the league); he earned the Magic Johnson Western Conference Finals MVP after averaging 32.4 ppg, 9.6 rpg, and 8.2 apg versus the Minnesota Timberwolves in the Western Conference Finals. Lloyd Daniels and Toni Kukoc were both dubbed "Magic Johnson with a jump shot," but--at least from a statistical standpoint--that is who Doncic has resembled during this playoff run: he is the most productive passer, he rebounds like a center from the guard position, and he is a prolific scorer who has made more three pointers (57) that any other player during the playoffs. What distinguished Johnson, though, was not numbers or hype, but the ability to lift his team to five NBA championships, and that is the next step for Doncic.
Irving is enjoying his most successful postseason since he was the second option on Cleveland's 2016 championship team; this is not just about numbers--although his 2024 playoff statistics are excellent (22.8 ppg, 5.2 apg, 3.9 rpg, .485/.421/.828 shooting splits)--but about his seamless acceptance of the second option role. Irving averaged 27.0 ppg, 4.6 apg, and 3.6 rpg versus Minnesota in the Western Conference Finals. When Irving is on the court with Doncic, the opposing defense is stretched to the breaking point: Doncic and Irving both need to be tightly guarded anywhere within 25 feet from the hoop, five other Mavericks are each shooting at least .350 from three point range during the playoffs, and Daniel Gafford and rookie Dereck Lively II are each shooting better than .600 from the field primarily by feasting on rim runs that are opened up by the attention paid to Doncic, Irving, and the three point shooters.
Midseason acquisitions Gafford and P.J. Washington have both started every playoff game and made major contributions. Gafford is averaging 9.2 ppg, 5.9 rpg, and a team-high 1.8 bpg during the playoffs, while Washington ranks third on the team in playoff scoring (13.6 ppg), and third in rebounding (6.7 rpg). Lively II ranks first on the team in playoff field goal percentage (.667), and second in rebounding (7.2 rpg).
Coach Jason Kidd deserves a lot of credit not only for mentoring Irving to blend in with Doncic and the rest of the team, but also for maximizing the talents of Gafford, Washington, and Lively II.
Boston will win because…Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown are an even better two-way duo than Doncic and Irving, and Boston has the NBA's best, most versatile starting lineup. Tatum is averaging 26.0 ppg, 10.4 rpg (seventh in the league), and 5.9 apg (10th in the league) during the 2024 playoffs. He averaged 30.3 ppg, 10.3 rpg, and 6.3 apg as the Celtics swept the Indiana Pacers in the Eastern Conference Finals, and he was a legitimate contender for the Larry Bird Eastern Conference Finals MVP award that he had already won in 2022. Brown is averaging 25.0 ppg, 6.1 rpg, and 2.6 apg during the 2024 playoffs, and he earned
the Larry Bird Eastern Conference Finals MVP after averaging 29.8 ppg, 5.0 rpg, and 3.0 apg versus the Pacers. Tatum and Brown are bigger than Doncic and Irving, and are much better defensively while being, at worst, comparable offensively.
Boston's other starters are two-time All-Star/six-time All-Defensive Team member Jrue Holiday, two-time All-Defensive Team member Derrick White, and five-time All-Star Al Horford. When 2018 All-Star Kristaps Porzingis returns from his right calf injury, either he or Horford will be a potent sixth man. Porzingis was the starting center before he got hurt, but it is possible that the Celtics will bring him off of the bench now to preserve the continuity that they developed during the 10 playoff games that Porzingis missed.
Holiday scores, rebounds, passes, and defends. He has championship experience, and he fills whatever role he is asked to fill without complaints or drama. White is a bigger, younger version of Holiday (but without the championship experience). Horford does not have the mobility or endurance that he had in his younger days, but he can still be a potent weapon at both ends of the court, as he showed in game three versus Indiana (23 points, five rebounds, three blocked shots) and the game five series clinching win versus Cleveland (22 points, 15 rebounds, five assists, three blocked shots).
During the regular season, the Celtics ranked first in blocked shots (6.6 bpg), first in fewest turnovers (11.9 tpg), second in scoring (120.6 ppg), second in defensive field goal percentage (.453), second in rebounding (46.3 rpg), fifth in points allowed (109.2 ppg), and eighth in field goal percentage (.487). Their 11.3 ppg scoring differential is historically great, trailing only four legendary championship teams: the Chamberlain-West 1972 L.A. Lakers (12.3 ppg), the Abdul-Jabbar-Robertson 1971 Milwaukee Bucks (12.3 ppg), the Jordan-Pippen 1996 Chicago Bulls (12.2 ppg), and the Durant-Curry 2017 Golden State Warriors (11.6 ppg).
Other things to consider: The Celtics have been the NBA's most dominant team this season. The only chinks in their armor are (1) their stubborn insistence on jacking up more than 40 three point field goal attempts per game even when they enjoy higher percentage matchup opportunities inside the arc, and (2) their tendency to relax, as illustrated by their two double digit home playoff losses this year to markedly inferior opponents (Miami and Cleveland).
It is great to shoot open three pointers created off of drive and kick action or from offensive rebounds when the defense is in scramble mode, but it is not optimal to just hoist three pointers without regard to time, score, and matchups. Tatum and Brown in particular most focus first on attacking the hoop to score; after the defense loads up to stop their drives, the three point shot will open up for them and for their teammates.
The Celtics' tendency to relax has not harmed them during the 2024 playoffs, but they cannot afford to give away anything to the Mavericks.
Both teams are strong defensively, which means that the star players may be held below their typical field goal percentages. The term "efficiency" is thrown around a lot, but is poorly understood. For examples, Lively II has a 2024 playoff field goal percentage of .667 but that does not mean that he is Dallas' most efficient offensive player nor does it mean that he should be attempting 20 shots a game. He is attempting less than five shots per game, mainly dunks and put backs, and his high field goal percentage is a direct product of the defensive attention drawn by Doncic and Irving. Players like Doncic, Irving, Tatum, and Brown should be judged not just on their individual field goal percentages but rather on how efficiently they run their offenses.
Dirk Nowitzki shot .416 from the field in the 2011 NBA Finals, but he attracted so much defensive attention that his Mavericks shot .454 from the field overall while upsetting the heavily favored Miami Heat. There is a big difference between shooting low percentage shots that do not challenge the defense, and shooting high percentage shots that force the defense to react. During the 2011 NBA Finals, Nowitzki attempted 46 free throws and 19 three pointers; he attacked the hoop, he forced the Heat to pay extra attention to him, and he drew fouls that put the Mavericks into the bonus. Even though Nowitzki had a low field goal percentage, he broke Miami's defense--and, on top of that, he consistently dominated in the fourth quarter with the outcome of the game in the balance. Kobe Bryant had a similarly great performance in the 2010 NBA Finals versus an even better defense than the one Nowitzki faced in 2011.
Ideally, Tatum, Brown, Doncic, and Irving will each shoot at least .450 from the field during the 2024 NBA Finals, but that number alone--or the "advanced" shooting numbers that are often spouted by "stat gurus"--is not how their Finals performances should be defined. The star players must distort the opposing defense to consistently create high percentage shots for their teams.
In short, there is a difference between shooting in the low .400s while
jacking up "logo" three pointers early in the shot clock, and shooting
in the low .400s while driving to the hoop, attracting double teams, and
drawing fouls. LeBron James did not become a champion until he learned
this; James Harden and Damian Lillard are two highly-hyped players who are unlikely to ever become champions because they have never learned this.
This series will be legacy-defining for several players, but more so for Doncic and Tatum than anyone else; one of those players will win his first NBA title. It is easy to assume that both are young enough and talented enough to return to this stage several more times, but nothing is promised or guaranteed in this life.
It is possible that the Mavericks will keep all of these games close, and manage to win four of them thanks to Doncic and Irving rising to the occasion down the stretch, but I predict that Boston will win in six games.
Labels: Boston Celtics, Dallas Mavericks, Jaylen Brown, Jayson Tatum, Kyrie Irving, Luka Doncic
posted by David Friedman @ 2:34 PM
6 Comments:
With the eighth-seeded Heat reaching the Finals last season and the fifth-seeded Mavericks reaching the Finals this season, I was curious to know if there had previously been consecutive seasons where a team in the back half of the draw reached the Finals. Determining who was or wasn’t in the back half of the draw in recent decades is simple but it becomes much more difficult starting around the early 1970s and before when the playoff format was unrecognizable to the current format.
I decided to define the “back half of the draw” as a team that did not have home court advantage in their first playoff series. Going by that definition, and I’m well aware that this might not be correct, it appears that the 1951 and 1952 Finals were the previous consecutive seasons to have teams in the back half of the draw reach the Finals. The Knicks were the third seed in each Finals when there were only four teams in the Eastern Conference.
Thanks as always. A note that Brown and not Tatum won the 2024 Larry Bird award
The Brown I want to hear during the finals is Hubie. He is still the best NBA analyst on TV by far. And 90 years young.
Wonderful preview and I have to agree with the prediction even if I would prefer to see Luka win over Boston. I was hoping for a Denver vs Boston Finals but this series should be just as exciting.
Correction: surprisingly, it was Jaylen Brown who won the ECF MVP award.
Great write-up, David. This should be a fascinating series. Boston looks determined and poised to pull this off. Minor correction to your post: Jaylen Brown actually won this year’s ECF MVP, not Tatum. I think this series goes the distance and won’t be surprised if Luka leads his Mavs to a series clincher on the Boston floor like the ‘85 Lakers and ‘22 Warriors did.
The original article should have stated that Tatum won the inaugural Larry Bird Eastern Conference Finals MVP in 2022, and that Brown won the award this year (as mentioned in my recap of game four of the Boston-Indiana series), so I have corrected the article accordingly.
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