Mavericks Come Back From 17 Point Deficit to Silence Thunder, Advance to Western Conference Finals
The Oklahoma City Thunder jumped out to a 13-4 lead and were up 77-60 at the 8:25 mark of the third quarter, but the Dallas Mavericks won the fourth quarter 34-26 to take the series, 4-2, and eliminate the Western Conference's top seeded team. Luka Doncic scored a team-high 29 points, dished for a game-high 10 assists, and grabbed 10 rebounds in a game-high 45 minutes; the only blemish on his stat line was a game-high seven turnovers, but in the second half he had 14 points, seven assists, and just two turnovers. He led the Mavericks in scoring (24.7 ppg), rebounding (10.5 rpg), and assists (8.7 apg) during this series.
Kyrie Irving and Derrick Jones Jr. each scored 22 points. Irving did not shoot well (9-23 from the field), and he was just the team's third leading scorer during this series (15.7 ppg), but he led the Mavericks with 18 second half points (albeit on inefficient 7-18 field goal shooting). P.J. Washington was Dallas' second leading scorer in this series (17.7 ppg), but he was silent for most of this game before scoring a very loud nine fourth quarter points, including the game-winning/series-clinching free throws with 2.5 seconds left in the fourth quarter. Dereck Lively II added 12 points and a game-high 15 rebounds off of the bench as the Mavericks won the bench scoring battle, 25-15.
The Mavericks outrebounded the Thunder 47-31 but squandered many of those extra possessions, committing 17 turnovers compared to just eight by the Thunder.
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander scored a game-high 36 points on 14-25 field goal shooting. He is not flashy, but he is consistent, and he plays hard at both ends of the court. Jalen Williams had an excellent all-around game with 21 points, nine rebounds, and eight assists. Chet Holmgren added 21 points, but did not have much of an impact in any other phase of the game (three rebounds, one assist, no blocked shots).
The Thunder led for most of the game, but there are no prizes for leading at halftime or for leading the most minutes overall; in my recap of Dallas' 105-101 game three win, I noted, "[T]o win a championship a team must be able to withstand physical play, rebound and defend the paint; those three areas are weaknesses that will be difficult for the Thunder to overcome versus the Mavericks." The Thunder did a solid job defending the paint in this game, but the Mavericks took over the game in the second half primarily because of physical play and rebounding. Size still matters, defense still matters, and rebounding still matters, no matter how much "stat gurus" keep bleating about "pace and space." In the second half, Dallas outrebounded Oklahoma City 26-14 while the Thunder shot 5-17 (.294) from three point range. The Thunder led the NBA in three point field goal percentage this season while ranking eighth in three pointers made, but three point shooting alone does not win NBA titles--and relying too much on three point shooting is a high variance strategy that often leads to early playoff exits. The Mavericks attempted more three pointers than the Thunder during this series, but they got away with that not just because they shot a higher percentage from beyond the arc but because they did not rely on three point shooting: they played with a level of physicality that put pressure on the Thunder and that provided extra possessions because of their rebounding advantage.
The Mavericks are making their second Western Conference Finals appearance in the past three years. They will face the winner of Sunday's game seven between Denver and Minnesota. The Mavericks will not enjoy a size or physicality advantage against either of those teams, nor will the Mavericks have homecourt advantage against either of those teams; they won two games at Oklahoma City, but it is not likely that they will win two road games in the Western Conference Finals.
As for the Thunder, there has been much talk that they are the youngest team to win a playoff series--but, as usual, such statistics do not take into account the ABA: the 1974 New York Nets, led by Julius Erving, won a championship with a starting lineup just as young as the Thunder's starting lineup. It is true that the Thunder became good faster than anyone expected, but they will not start next season with homecourt advantage in the second round as the number one seed; they will start from scratch and have to navigate the 82 game regular season as the hunted, not the hunter. Joel Embiid led the Philadelphia 76ers to the second round of the playoffs as a 24 year old, but six years later he still has not advanced past the second round.
Nothing is given, and nothing is promised.
Perhaps the Thunder will build on this season's success, but there is no guarantee that they will reach
the second round next year, let alone advance to the Western Conference
Finals or the NBA Finals. Injuries, complacency, and roster moves--both by the Thunder and by other teams--could impact the Thunder in unexpected ways.
Labels: Dallas Mavericks, Kyrie Irving, Luka Doncic, Oklahoma City Thunder, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander
posted by David Friedman @ 12:32 AM
2 Comments:
Hi David, thanks for your recaps. I have been following your analysis of the playoffs (as I have been doing for the past 15 years or so!) I have rewatched the last 3-4 minutes of the game, and I have to say that I did not like Dallas execution down the stretch to close the game. I found it quite chaotic, "my turn your turn" between Doncic and Irving. Were it not for their size advantage (a couple offensive rebounds very costly for OKC) and for not so clever foul by SGA, they would have lost the game. Now, they did win, and that's all that matters, but I don't see the Mavs faring well against either Minnesota or Denver.
Al:
You're welcome!
Both teams made mistakes down the stretch, but Dallas' size/physicality advantage proved decisive not just in game six but in the series overall.
I agree that the winner of the Denver-Minnesota series should be the favorite in the WCF.
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