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Sunday, March 09, 2025

Tatum Outshines Doncic and James as Celtics Beat Lakers, 111-101

Less than a week ago, I cautioned that before the L.A. Lakers are deemed to be legitimate championship contenders we need to see a larger sample size of games from them--and some games pitting the Lakers versus legitimate championship contending teams. ESPN termed Saturday night's clash featuring the Lakers versus the Boston Celtics to be the game of the year. At least ESPN did not call it the game of the century, though perhaps that would have happened after the game if the Lakers had prevailed to sustain the narrative of the past few weeks that the Lakers are the best team in the league. As it turns out, the Celtics built a 22 point lead, let the Lakers back in (thank you, high variance three point shooting), and then settled for a 111-101 victory.

ESPN devoted most of its pre-game hype to the Lakers' LeBron James and Luka Doncic, but greatness is determined by what happens on the court, not what is said in ESPN's studio--and, on the court, Boston's Jayson Tatum authored a masterful performance with a game-high 40 points, a team-high 12 rebounds, and a team-high eight assists. It will be interesting to see if the best player on the reigning NBA champions--a team that currently has the third best record in the league--cracks the top five in regular season MVP voting, an honor that is selected by people who often seem to be more swayed by hype and narratives than by objective evidence. Tatum does not hype himself, and he does not have a team of sycophants hyping him up; he just shows up and produces. Jaylen Brown added 31 points and six rebounds, while Al Horford made his presence felt with 14 points, nine rebounds, and four assists. 

Doncic scored a team-high 34 points, but he also had a game-high five turnovers and a game-worst -19 plus/minus number. James had 22 points, a game-high 14 rebounds, and a game-high nine assists, but he had a -11 plus/minus number before sitting out the final 6:44 with a groin injury. The Celtics led 94-85 when James left the game, and the Lakers pulled to within four (99-95) on a Doncic three pointer with 4:36 remaining, but in a little over two minutes the Celtics built the margin back up to 10 and they led by double digits the rest of the way.

The Lakers were without the services of injured starting center Jaxson Hayes, but the Celtics were without the services of injured starting center Kristaps Porzingis. Porzingis is a former All-Star with career averages of 19.6 ppg, 7.8 rpg, and 1.8 bpg; Hayes has career averages of 6.7 ppg, 3.9 rpg, and .7 bpg while starting just 71 of his 351 career games. If both teams had been at full strength, the Celtics would have enjoyed even more matchup advantages than they did in this game, particularly in the paint. The Lakers went 20-4 in their 24 previous games, and during that run they ranked first in the NBA in paint points (44.3 per game), but the Celtics outscored the Lakers 48-38 in the paint. 

TNT's Charles Barkley famously said earlier this season "The Lakers stink," and he only backed down partially in the wake of the Lakers' recent surge, noting that the season started last October, not in January--the point being that to win a championship a team must maintain greatness for a sustained period. There are valid reasons to question whether the Lakers can win the four playoff series necessary to claim the NBA title, including their lack of size, James' age (he is the most remarkable 40-plus year old NBA player ever, but the clock is going to strike midnight sooner rather than later), and Doncic's health (he has been dogged by nagging injuries throughout this season). The Lakers' lack of size puts extra pressure on James and Doncic to rebound and defend, which in turn makes it more likely that they will get worn down and/or injured. 

James is an all-time great, but is he better than Nikola Jokic, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, or Jayson Tatum right now? To win the 2025 NBA title, James might have to outduel all three of those players--and the strong teams that they lead in Denver, Oklahoma City, and Boston respectively. The Cleveland Cavaliers do not have a player of the caliber of Jokic, Gilgeous-Alexander, or Tatum but Donovan Mitchell and Evan Mobley are having All-NBA caliber seasons, and the Cavaliers have other excellent players, including Darius Garland and Jarrett Allen.

The Lakers did not look like a well-coached team when they started the season 13-9, but now the prevailing narrative is that J.J. Redick is a great coach, and any evidence to the contrary is just ignored. During the first half--before the Celtics took over the game--ESPN's Richard Jefferson listed his buddy Redick among potential Coach of the Year candidates, but omitted Cleveland's Kenny Atkinson; all Atkinson has done is lead the Cavaliers to an NBA-best 53-10 record after the Cavaliers went 48-34 last season. Unlike the Lakers, the Cavaliers have been consistently great this season.

The amazing thing about Redick's Lakers is that they never have the wrong defensive scheme or overall game plan; if the Lakers fail, it is 100% the players' fault--and if you are not sure about that, just ask Redick or his media buddies like Jefferson, and they will set you straight. On a more serious and less sarcastic note, ESPN's Bob Myers--frequently the lone voice of a reason on a studio show including "Screamin' A" Smith and Kendrick Perkins--pointed out the incredibly low percentage that the Lakers' opponents have shot on wide open attempts, which Myers called "L-U-C-K." Another word for a defense that has been successful despite giving up a slew of uncontested shots is "Unsustainable." The Celtics shot worse than they usually do from three point range and the free throw line, and they still beat the Lakers by double digits.

There is no doubt that the Lakers are better now than they were at the start of the season. The 26 year old Doncic made the All-NBA First Team each of the past five seasons with Dallas before the Lakers acquired him last month, and he is an upgrade over the 31 year old Anthony Davis (even before Davis suffered yet another injury). However, the Lakers have a lot to prove before they jump the line ahead of teams that have been great all season, including Cleveland, Oklahoma City, and Boston.

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posted by David Friedman @ 12:43 AM

7 comments

7 Comments:

At Sunday, March 09, 2025 6:59:00 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

It's one regular season game, and on the road, and right after the Lakers beat the Knicks. The Lakers also shot worse than usually they do from 3 and the FT line, while scoring 12 points worse/game, while being down only 4 with 4 1/2 minutes left. It goes both ways. This game could've gone either way. It's not a game that would give the Celtics much confidence moving forward.

You think the Lakers lack size? That seems odd. They seem like one of the bigger teams in the league. Even without Hayes in the starting lineup, their average starter height was 6-7. They do need Hayes, as he's about their only true big other than James, but they're still a very big team even without Hayes. James/Doncic rebound well regardless, and they need to play some defense regardless, too.

Tatum has finished 6th, 4th, and 6th in MVP voting the past 3 seasons, which has seemed very accurate. Maybe he should've been shifted 1 spot higher or 1 spot lower in a few of the past 3 seasons, but he never seriously contended for the actual MVP. He should finish 3rd or 4th this season. Hard to argue he's higher than 3rd over Jokic or SGA. While MVP voting hasn't always been the best, Tatum isn't a good example for MVP voting failing.

 
At Sunday, March 09, 2025 9:30:00 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...




Marcel


The Lakers is 19-5 in last 24 and we been the best defensive team even before the Luka trade


It was even game in the first half the Celtics dominated the 3rd, the Lakers were better in the 4th for most of it .


The Celtics are better than us and so is Cleveland and okc right now.


I do think we can possibly beat them down the road if we can get healthy but I admit it will be tough.

I think JJ a very good coach who is much better than ham and most NBA coaches currently.


U cannot win a nba title without a top 75 player only team ever did was 03 pistons


However u can when u have two all stars the year of the title. That happened 7 times the last 25 years. 29 percent





 
At Sunday, March 09, 2025 10:09:00 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Marcel


One more thing I'm a Lakers fan


But Jayson Tatum a great great player

He better than Pierce and Anthony but not on the level of kd or Bron


He a first team all nba player but not quite a MVP level player


He the fourth best player in the NBA and got face of league qualities

He might be my favorite player in the league he so smooth and accomplished so much

6 all stars
3 all nba 1st team
NBA title
2 gold medals in 8 years

Special player

 
At Monday, March 10, 2025 1:37:00 AM, Blogger David Friedman said...

Anonymous:

I agree that it is just one game, but this was the first game that the "new look" Lakers faced a legit championship contender. The Celtics don't need confidence from beating the Lakers; the Lakers are the team with something to prove, and the team that needs confidence.

Do you think that the Lakers shooting worse than usual is just a random coincidence, or is it possible that the Celtics' defense had something to do with that? Before you answer, you may want to watch/rewatch the 2024 NBA Finals, and focus on how the Celtics guarded Doncic during that series.

The Lakers started 6-8, 214 Jarred Vanderbilt at center, so yes I think that the Lakers lack size. More to the point, they lack quality size. Their centers--even when the team is at full strength--are undersized or journeymen or both.

I was not criticizing Tatum's previous MVP finishes--though I think that he could have finished higher--but I was focusing on the notion that I have heard in some quarters that he is barely top five worthy this season. Tatum should finish third this season, barring something dramatic in the final 20 games or so.

Over the past 30 years, MVP voters honored Steve Nash twice, James Harden once, and Karl Malone twice but Pantheon players Shaquille O'Neal and Kobe Bryant only won one MVP each. Nash and Harden won because of weird narratives, and Malone beat out Jordan due to "voter fatigue" (which makes no sense, because if one player is the best player six years in a row then that player should win six MVPs). The Allen Iverson and Derrick Rose MVP selections are also questionable (O'Neal and LeBron James respectively should have won those awards). Not only have the voters selected the wrong winner several times, but there have been several years that the top five looked very odd.

 
At Monday, March 10, 2025 1:46:00 AM, Blogger David Friedman said...

Marcel:

The season started in October, not in the past 24 games.

Adding Doncic made the Lakers better, but it is not clear if this is enough to vault them past the Celtics, Thunder, and Cavaliers (in whatever order one prefers, but those are clearly the three best teams).

It is not clear yet how good of a coach that Redick is. He has not coached a full season yet, and he has not coached a single playoff game.

The 1979 Sonics did not have a Top 75 player, nor did several of the NBA's earliest championship teams, though I would agree that pre-shot clock era teams should not be compared to shot clock era teams.

From a career standpoint, Tatum is not on the level of LeBron or KD, but right now--which is all that matters for the 2025 playoffs--Tatum is better than LeBron and he is better than KD (whose team is not a contender anyway).

 
At Monday, March 10, 2025 6:59:00 PM, Blogger anon said...

the lakers beat the nuggets, who are a legit contender - quite handily if I remember. Rui was also out, which is significant given how the lakers play defense. hayes looks a lot better because of doncic, but it was hayes who played a big role in beating the celtics last year in boston. forgetting atkinson is a serious error for coach of the year (I believe it was by accident, but kind of crazy that no one corrected him) but if you're taking what the play by play announcers say seriously more than 5 percent of the time, you need your head examined. So much of the televised part is to entertain, not inform. The local play by play guys are usually a little more interested in the game than the national folks.

 
At Monday, March 10, 2025 8:28:00 PM, Blogger David Friedman said...

Anon:

Even if we count the Nuggets as a contender--and, at this point, it is fair to say that the contenders are Cleveland, OKC, and Boston (in whatever order you prefer), with the Nuggets not quite at that level--the best that we can say about the Lakers is that they beat one contender in one regular season game. I'm not definitively saying that the Lakers are not a contender (although I am pretty sure that they are not), but I am saying that it is premature to definitively say that they are a contender.

Announcers are a mixed bag. Tim Legler is excellent. Bob Myers is excellent on a game call and in the studio. Grant Hill and Greg Anthony are very good. Doris Burke is solid. You are correct that many of them are not good. The point is not that I am taking all of them seriously, but that I call them out when they say something foolish.

 

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