Cleveland Versus Indiana Preview
Eastern Conference Second Round
#1 Cleveland (68-14) vs. #4 Indiana (50-32)
Season series: Indiana, 3-1
Indiana can win if…the Pacers' high octane offense overwhelms the Cavaliers, and if the Pacers get enough timely defensive stops. During the regular season, the Pacers ranked third in the NBA in field goal percentage (.488) and seventh in scoring (117.4 ppg) but just 17th in points allowed (115.1 ppg) and 23rd in defensive field goal percentage (.474); in their 4-1 first round victory over the Milwaukee Bucks, the Pacers maintained their typical offensive production (117.8 ppg, .499 FG%) while holding the Bucks to 110.2 ppg on .453 field goal shooting.
Pascal Siakam led the Pacers in regular season scoring (20.2 ppg on .519 field goal shooting), and he led the Pacers in scoring versus the Bucks as well (19.8 ppg on .556 field goal shooting). Tyrese Haliburton is the engine that makes the Pacers' offense go, averaging 17.6 ppg and a league-leading 11.6 apg in the first round. Myles Turner averaged just 4.8 rpg in the first round, but he scored 16.8 ppg on .509 field goal shooting while leading the Pacers in blocked shots (2.2 bpg). Andrew Nembhard is a pesky defender (team-high 1.4 spg during the first round) and solid scorer (15.0 ppg on .492 field goal shooting).
The Pacers are not consistently great defensively, but they have some good individual defensive players, so they are capable of getting key defensive stops.
Cleveland will win because...the Cavaliers are more talented, deeper, and have better offensive/defensive balance. Collectively, the Cavaliers have no weaknesses: they led the NBA in scoring (121.9 ppg) while ranking second in field goal percentage (.491), third in defensive field goal percentage (.454), sixth in rebounding (45.4 rpg), and 12th in points allowed.
Donovan Mitchell led the Cavaliers in scoring (24.0 ppg) during the regular season and during Cleveland's first round sweep of the Miami Heat (23.8 ppg; Darius Garland averaged 24.0 ppg but only played in two games)--but the best thing that he did this season went beyond the boxscore: he enthusiastically embraced the notion that for the Cavaliers to reach their potential it is important for Evan Mobley and other players to have larger roles. Mobley scored a career-high 18.5 ppg and he became the first Cavalier to win the Defensive Player of the Year award. Darius Garland averaged 20.6 ppg and earned his second All-Star selection, joining Mitchell and Mobley. Jarrett Allen led the NBA in field goal percentage (.706) and he topped the Cavaliers in rebounding (9.7 rpg).
The Cavaliers' point differential (9.5 ppg) not only ranked second in the league this season, but it is on par with the point differentials of all-time great championship teams such as the 1986 Boston Celtics, the 1991 Chicago Bulls, and the 1997 Chicago Bulls. There are three reasons that the Cavaliers are not compared to such teams:
1) The Oklahoma City Thunder performed at an even more dominant level this season.
2) The Cavaliers have not validated their regular season productivity by winning a title.
3) All-time great teams almost always have at least one player 6-6 or taller who is a dominant individual performer. The 1986 Celtics had Larry Bird leading a roster stacked with Hall of Famers. The 1991 and 1997 Bulls had Michael Jordan and Scottie Pippen. The Cavaliers' best player is Donovan Mitchell, who is listed at 6-3 but is probably closer to 6-1. Mitchell has never made the All-NBA First Team or finished higher than sixth in MVP voting (though it is possible that he may check off both of those boxes this season).
The Cavaliers may prove to be an ensemble championship team like Seattle in 1979 and Detroit in 2004--but until the Cavaliers win a title they will not be discussed alongside championship teams even though they have the statistical profile of a dominant championship team.
One important step toward gaining such recognition is beating an Indiana team that is very good, but not great.
Other things to consider: Indiana won the season series between these teams 3-1, but the Pacers at full strength barely beat the Cavaliers 114-112 on April 10 when the Cavaliers rested all of their starters except Jarrett Allen; the Pacers' 126-118 double overtime win on April 13 happened on the last day of the season when both teams rested their starters. With both teams at full strength, the Pacers' offensive firepower may be enough to win a couple games, but over the course of a seven game series the Pacers cannot match the Cavaliers.
Cleveland will defeat Indiana in six games.
Labels: Cleveland Cavaliers, Darius Garland, Donovan Mitchell, Evan Mobley, Indiana Pacers, Jarrett Allen, Pascal Siakam, Tyrese Haliburton
posted by David Friedman @ 3:56 PM
1 Comments:
The Cavs are a great team without a great player. They don't really have even a top 20 player on their team. It's amazing what they've done. They're better than 1979 Seattle or 2004 Detroit, but they won't likely have the luxury of having as easy of roads through the Finals as those teams.
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