20 Second Timeout

Thunder Outlast Pacers to Win Game Seven, 103-91

The Oklahoma City Thunder outscored the Indiana Pacers 56-43 in the second half, transforming a one point halftime deficit into a 103-91 game seven win to capture the NBA championship. The Pacers outrebounded the Thunder 45-40 and shot slightly more efficiently from the field, but the Thunder attacked Pacers' ballhandlers on the perimeter and took advantage of extra possessions by scoring in the paint; the Thunder forced 23 turnovers that they converted into 32 points while committing just eight turnovers that the Pacers converted into 10 points, and the Thunder outscored the Pacers in the paint, 40-26.

As is often the case in game seven showdowns, two high octane offenses struggled to score efficiently. The Thunder averaged 120.5 ppg in the regular season while posting a 68-14 record with the best point differential in NBA history (12.9 ppg), but in game seven they barely cracked the 100 point barrier while shooting 35-87 (.402) from the field, including 11-40 (.275) from three point range; the Pacers averaged 117.4 ppg in the regular season while ranking third in field goal percentage (.488), but in game seven they fell well short of 100 points while shooting 29-70 (.414) from the field, including 11-28 (.393) from beyond the arc. 

Three point shooting is supposed to be of paramount importance in today's NBA, but the Thunder took the title despite shooting 71-206 (.345) from three point range in the NBA Finals. Defense, rebounding, and paint presence are often the most important factors in game seven, which is why the 1998 Chicago Bulls beat the Indiana Pacers in game seven of the Eastern Conference Finals despite Michael Jordan shooting 9-25 from the field and why the 2010 L.A. Lakers beat the Boston Celtics in game seven of the NBA Finals despite Kobe Bryant shooting 6-24 from the field. A team that defends well and plays hard can survive a poor individual shooting performance by a star.

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander scored a game-high 29 points, dished for a game-high/playoff career-high 12 assists, grabbed five rebounds, blocked two shots, and had just one turnover. He shot 8-27 from the field, but his scoring and playmaking accounted for more than half of the Thunder's points. By continuing to shoot even though his field goal percentage was not great, Gilgeous-Alexander put pressure on the Pacers' defense; the worst thing for a team in a big game is not when the team's star shoots 8-27, but rather when he shoots 4-14, because a passive star player is much easier to guard than an active star player: when a star player aggressively attacks the defense that forces the defense to react by sending help, which opens up scoring opportunities and offensive rebounding opportunities for the star's teammates, secondary but important effects that are not tracked well or even understood by many "stat gurus" who focus on what they define as "efficiency" without giving sufficient consideration to other factors. 

During the NBA Finals, Gilgeous-Alexander averaged 30.3 ppg, 4.6 rpg, 5.6 apg, 1.9 spg, and 1.6 bpg with shooting splits of .443/.242/.914, earning the Bill Russell NBA Finals MVP and becoming the first player to win the scoring title, regular season MVP, and NBA Finals MVP in the same season since Shaquille O'Neal (2000). He is just the fourth player in NBA history to win the scoring title, regular season MVP, and the championship in the same season, joining Kareem Abdul-Jabbar (1971), Michael Jordan (1991-92, 1996, 1998), and Shaquille O'Neal (2000).

Jalen Williams shot poorly from the field (7-20), but he made critical contributions with 20 points, four rebounds, four assists, two steals, and just one turnover. He had a game-best +13 plus/minus number. Chet Holmgren anchored the defense in the paint, setting an NBA Finals game seven record with five blocked shots while also scoring 18 points on 6-8 field goal shooting and grabbing eight rebounds. The Thunder improved to 3-1 in this series with Isaiah Hartenstein in the starting lineup; he had seven points, a team-high nine rebounds, and four assists. Gilgeous-Alexander, Williams, and Hartenstein were the only three Thunder players who had an assist. Alex Caruso and Cason Wallace each scored 10 points off of the bench.

The biggest story for the Pacers was that Tyrese Haliburton, the team's primary playmaker and clutch shot maker, fell to the court with a non-contact lower right leg injury at the 4:55 mark of the first quarter and was unable to play the rest of the way. He had already scored nine points on 3-5 field goal shooting, and even though the Thunder led 18-16 when Haliburton left the game it is fair to wonder how the game might have proceeded if Haliburton had stayed healthy. Haliburton's injury not only impacted game seven and this series but it could have implications for the balance of power in the Eastern Conference if he misses most or all of next season.

Bennedict Mathurin stepped up in Haliburton's absence, scoring a team-high 24 points and grabbing a game-high 13 rebounds in 33 minutes off of the bench. Pascal Siakam added 16 points but shot just 5-13 from the field. T.J. McConnell contributed 16 points on 8-13 field goal shooting in 28 minutes off of the bench, but he also had a game-high seven turnovers; he scored 12 points on 6-7 field goal shooting in eight minutes in the third quarter, but had just four points on 2-6 field goal shooting in his other 20 minutes of action, which highlights a point that I made in my game five recap: just because a bench player has a brief productive stretch that does not mean that if his playing time is extended he will continue to score at that same per minute rate; there are reasons that bench players are bench players and starters are starters, including conditioning, and ability to match up with various players/defensive schemes.

The Pacers took an 11-6 lead to start the game in a closely contested first quarter featuring three lead changes and four ties with neither team leading by more than five points. After Haliburton's injury, the Pacers seemed to be inspired while the Thunder seemed to be complacent and tentative. The Pacers outscored the Thunder 26-22 in the second quarter to build a slim 48-47 halftime edge as the Thunder shot 4-18 (.222) from three point range in the first half.

In the third quarter, the Thunder ramped up the defensive pressure--forcing eight turnovers that they converted into 18 points--while not committing a single turnover, and shooting a respectable 5-13 (.385) from beyond the arc. The Pacers were still behind by just four points, 70-66, at the 3:54 mark of the third quarter, but the Thunder closed that stanza with an 11-2 run to enter the fourth quarter with an 81-68 lead. McConnell scored the Pacers' final 12 third quarter points, but down the stretch in the third quarter it became evident that the Pacers could not deal with the Thunder's defensive pressure.  

The Thunder led by as many as 22 points in the fourth quarter before the Pacers made one final push to slash the margin to 96-86 with 2:16 remaining, but the Thunder went on a 6-1 burst to remove any doubt; the Pacers may be the comeback kings, but the Thunder are a historically dominant team, particularly at home: the Thunder set a single season playoff record with a +259 point differential at home, and their only two home playoff losses--game one of the NBA Finals versus Indiana, and game one in the second round versus Denver--were on buzzer beaters. With this win, the Thunder improved to 19-2 after a loss (regular season and playoffs combined), the best such single season mark in NBA history.

The Thunder went 84-21 overall during the regular season and playoffs combined, tied with the 1996-97 Chicago Bulls (84-17) for the third most wins all-time, trailing only the 2015-16 Golden State Warriors (88-18, but lost in the NBA Finals), and the 1995-96 Chicago Bulls (87-13). It should be noted that the NBA expanded the playoff format in 1983-84 (adding a best of five first round series to the three existing best of seven series) and in 2002-03 (extending the first round from best of five to best of seven), so before those years teams did not have the same opportunities to win 84-plus games. The Thunder are the second youngest team to win an NBA title, trailing only the 1977 Portland Trail Blazers--a squad that provides a cautionary tale, as they never returned to the NBA Finals after injuries ended Bill Walton's brief tenure as the sport's best player. On paper, it looks like the Thunder are well positioned to contend for championships for the next several years, but in practice it is very difficult for a team to win multiple titles; there have been just four repeat champions since the Michael Jordan-Scottie Pippen Chicago Bulls notched a pair of three-peats in the 1990s: the 2000-02 L.A. Lakers, the 2009-10 L.A. Lakers, the 2012-13 Miami Heat, and the 2017-18 Golden State Warriors.

Labels: Bennedict Mathurin, Chet Holmgren, Indiana Pacers, Jalen Williams, Oklahoma City Thunder, Pascal Siakam, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, T.J. McConnell, Tyrese Haliburton

posted by David Friedman @ 10:07 AM

9 comments

Pacers Rout Thunder 108-91 to Force a Seventh Game in Oklahoma City

The Indiana Pacers fell behind 10-2 to the Oklahoma City Thunder at home in game six before outscoring the Thunder 62-32 the rest of the first half en route to a dominant 108-91 victory to tie the series at 3-3. The game was not as close as the final score may suggest; the Pacers led by as many as 31 points in the second half, were ahead by 25-plus points for substantial portions of the second half, and their fourth quarter lead did not drop below 20 points until the final 1:18. The Pacers outrebounded the Thunder 46-41, and forced 21 turnovers that they converted into 19 points while only committing 11 turnovers that the Thunder converted into 13 points. Those extra possessions were a major factor in a game during which both teams shot worse than .420 from the field. Another significant factor was that the Pacers shot 15-42 (.357) from three point range while holding the Thunder to 8-30 (.267) three point shooting; the Pacers did not shoot great, but the Thunder's terrible long range shooting was too much to overcome when the Thunder also lost the possession game by a wide margin. 

The Pacers shot 0-8 from the field to start the game, and they shot just 8-25 (.320) from the field in the first quarter, but they already led 28-25 after the first 12 minutes because they launched four more field goal attempts than the Thunder while making five first quarter three pointers and holding the Thunder to just one first quarter three pointer. As is often the case in the NBA, the first quarter set the tone for the game: the Pacers were the aggressors, the Pacers attempted more field goals, and the Pacers made timely three pointers while the Thunder misfired from beyond the arc. 

In today's NBA featuring volume three point shooting and fast-paced play, a 22 point halftime lead is not insurmountable, but what killed the Thunder is that they did not score from the 1:46 mark of the second quarter until 6:57 remained in the third quarter, a nearly seven minute drought during which the Pacers expanded their advantage from 58-42 to 70-42; the Pacers were not burning up the nets by scoring 12 points in seven minutes, but failing to score at all while already trailing by double digits signaled that this was just not the Thunder's night. 

The Pacers are a better and tougher team than I realized. It would have been easy to fold after losing game five in convincing fashion versus a team that is justifiably considered the favorite, but the Pacers showed resolve not seen from some teams that are more highly touted. The balanced Pacers attack featured six double figure scorers who each had between 10 and 20 points. Obi Toppin, the pride of the University of Dayton, led the Pacers with 20 points in 23 minutes off of the bench. He also had six rebounds, a game-high four treys, and two steals. Andrew Nembhard added 17 points, four assists, and three steals. Pascal Siakam had 16 points, a game-high 13 rebounds, and three assists. Tyrese Haliburton did not seem to be unduly hampered by his much-discussed calf injury, finishing with 14 points, five assists, two steals, and just one turnover; he had a game-high +25 plus/minus number, and he made those who suggested that he should be benched look quite foolish. T.J. McConnell provided an important spark off of the bench with 12 points, nine rebounds, a game-high six assists, and a game-high four steals that matched the entire Thunder team's output in a category that they are used to dominating.

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander led the Thunder with 21 points on 7-15 field goal shooting. He had four rebounds, two assists, and no steals or blocked shots, a marked contrast with his 31 points, 10 assists, four blocked shots, and two steals in the Thunder's game five win. In game six, Gilgeous-Alexander logged a "Harden" with more turnovers (game-high eight) than field goals made (seven). Jalen Williams followed up his 40 point game five masterpiece with just 16 points in game six. Chet Holmgren had four points on 2-9 field goal shooting, plus six rebounds, no assists, no steals, and no blocked shots. 

If the Thunder lose this series, they will rue falling behind 2-1 after inexplicably putting Cason Wallace in the starting lineup in place of Isaiah Hartenstein during the first three games. The Thunder went 45-8 during the regular season when Hartenstein started, and they went 12-4 in the playoffs with Hartenstein as a starter prior to the NBA Finals; the Thunder are now 2-1 in the NBA Finals with Hartenstein as a starter, and 1-2 when he did not start. The lineup change did not have a discernible impact on game six, but the larger point is that if the Thunder had deployed their regular starting lineup in each of the first five games they may have won the series at home in game five instead of being pushed to a seventh game.

The Thunder's effort level and efficiency from opening tip until final buzzer indicated that their players had the attitude that this was not a must win game because they will have game seven at home. The Thunder are 18-2 after a loss during the regular season and playoffs, so they have good reason to be confident, but Tex Winter often said, "Everything turns on a trifle": in game seven, a turned ankle, a bad call, or a funny bounce of the ball could change the game, the series, and the way that both teams are remembered. Game to game momentum in a series does not exist, because the next game is played in a different arena under different circumstances beginning with a 0-0 score, not a double digit lead for the winner of the previous game--but momentum within a game can exist, and can decide a series in game seven.

However, even though the underdog has a puncher's chance once a series reaches a seventh game, the reality is that the home team wins NBA game sevens over 74% of the time. The Thunder are in control of this series until proven otherwise, and the Thunder have demonstrated that blowout losses do not impact their confidence or their level of play. In the second round, the Thunder lost to the Denver Nuggets 119-107 in game six, and then the Thunder won game seven, 125-93. After taking a 2-0 lead in the Western Conference Finals, the Thunder lost to the Minnesota Timberwolves 143-101, and then the Thunder won the next two games to close out the series. 

The Pacers' dominant win will almost certainly inspire a lot of overreaction, which is a staple of NBA coverage (and sports coverage in general). Regardless of any hype to the contrary, a blowout Thunder win is the most likely game seven outcome, followed by a close Thunder win; a blowout Thunder win may seem unimaginable now in the immediate wake of the Pacers' dominant game six performance, but game six will be a distant memory when the comfortable and confident Thunder race out to an early game seven lead. A close Pacers win is possible but unlikely, and a blowout Pacers win at Oklahoma City is very unlikely barring unusual circumstance (injuries, foul trouble, or early ejections). 

Labels: Indiana Pacers, Jalen Williams, Oklahoma City Thunder, Pascal Siakam, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, T.J. McConnell, Tyrese Haliburton

posted by David Friedman @ 2:05 AM

15 comments

Thunder's One-Two Punch Knocks Out Pacers in Game Five

Jalen Williams scored a playoff career-high 40 points, and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander added 31 points to lead the Oklahoma City Thunder to a 120-109 win versus the Indiana Pacers in game five of the NBA Finals. The Thunder seized a 3-2 advantage, and put the Pacers behind in a series for the first time in the 2025 playoffs. Williams is the third youngest player with three straight 25 point games in the NBA Finals since the 1976 ABA-NBA merger; the only two younger players to accomplish that feat in that time period are Shaquille O'Neal and Kevin Durant. The 24 year old Williams is also the fifth youngest player to score at least 40 points in an NBA Finals game, trailing only Magic Johnson (20 years old in the 1980 NBA Finals), Rick Barry (three times in 1967 as a 23 year old), Russell Westbrook (23 years old in 2012), and Jerry West (23 years old in 1962).

The Thunder's one-two punch is usually Gilgeous-Alexander followed by Williams, but in this game reversing the order proved to be very effective. Williams shot 14-25 from the field while also contributing six rebounds, four assists, and one steal in 35 minutes. He had just one turnover. Gilgeous-Alexander shot 9-21 from the field, dished for a game-high 10 assists, logged a game-high four blocked shots, and swiped two steals in 38 minutes. Gilgeous-Alexander has produced 12 games this postseason with at least 30 points and at least 10 assists, breaking the record of 11 formerly held by Michael Jordan and LeBron James. Gilgeous-Alexander had three turnovers, which is an acceptable number given his high usage as a scorer/playmaker. Williams and Gilgeous-Alexander attacked the paint, and that enabled them to repeatedly draw fouls: Williams shot 9-12 from the free throw line, while Gilgeous-Alexander connected on 13 of his 14 free throw attempts. 

Aaron Wiggins (14 points, five rebounds in 22 minutes off of the bench) and Cason Wallace (11 points, four steals in 17 minutes off of the bench) were the only other Thunder players who scored in double figures, but when the top two players combine for 71 points not much other offensive support is needed. Chet Holmgren scored nine points, grabbed a game-high 11 rebounds, and blocked three shots, so he made a positive impact despite shooting just 4-15 from the field. Lu Dort added nine points, eight rebounds, three assists, and two steals, while Alex Caruso scored just two points on 1-8 field goal shooting but was a defensive menace with four steals and one blocked shot.

Pascal Siakam led the Pacers with 28 points on 9-15 field goal shooting while also snaring six rebounds, dishing for five assists, poaching three steals, and blocking two shots, but he had six of the Pacers' 23 turnovers. T.J. McConnell scored 18 points on 8-14 field goal shooting in 22 minutes off of the bench while also accumulating four rebounds, four assists, and two steals. He had the Pacers' second best plus/minus number (+4), and he had 13 third quarter points as the Pacers outscored the Thunder 34-28 in that stanza to trim the Thunder's 59-45 halftime lead to 87-79. Bennedict Mathurin scored seven points and had a team-high eight rebounds, and he posted the team's best plus/minus number (+6) despite shooting  just 2-11 from the field. Tyrese Haliburton, who has repeatedly saved the Pacers with big shots in clutch moments, had a scoreless first half on 0-5 field goal shooting before finishing with four points on 0-6 field goal shooting, seven rebounds, and a team-high six assists in 34 minutes. He was limited by a right calf injury but--as Pacers' Coach Rick Carlisle correctly noted during his postgame remarks--many players are limited by injuries at this stage of the season. 

The Thunder scored 32 points off of Indiana's turnovers while conceding just nine points from their 11 turnovers, and those extra possessions enabled the Thunder to prevail despite shooting just 40-94 (.426) from the field while also losing the rebounding battle, 50-45. The Pacers led the Thunder in points in the paint (48-42) and second chance points (21-17), but the combination of the Thunder's relentless defensive pressure with the dynamic scoring/playmaking of Williams and Gilgeous-Alexander decided the outcome.

The Thunder led for the final 44:52 of the game, and built the margin to 18 (56-38) at the 2:29 mark of the second quarter. McConnell's fantastic third quarter helped the Pacers to chip away, and the Pacers pulled to within two points (95-93) after Siakam hit a three pointer at the 8:30 mark of the fourth quarter. The Thunder then went on an 18-4 run to seal the game and, most likely, the series; during that crucial stretch, Williams scored eight points and Gilgeous-Alexander scored five points. 

Oklahoma City probably would have already won the series if Thunder Coach Mark Daigenault had not blundered by changing his starting lineup prior to game one, inserting Cason Wallace in place of Isaiah Hartenstein; the Thunder lost that game and trailed 2-1 before Daigneault went back to the starting lineup that posted a 45-8 regular season record and a 12-4 record in the playoffs. The Thunder won game four after putting Hartenstein back in the starting lineup and are now 2-0 in this series with the starting lineup that carried them to most of their wins in the regular season and the playoffs. Hartenstein's game five numbers--four points, eight rebounds, four assists--are not gaudy, but the goal is to win games, not to be "analytically correct." With Hartenstein in the starting lineup, all of the Thunder's players are in their natural and accustomed roles, which enabled the Thunder to not only build a 29-17 first quarter lead but to also withstand the inevitable Indiana comeback. 

Just at it would be wrong to evaluate the Thunder's starting lineup change based solely on the numbers posted by Hartenstein or Wallace outside of the larger context of the team's overall play, it would also be wrong to assert that Carlisle erred by not giving McConnell more minutes at Haliburton's expense in game five. McConnell is a bench player who performs best against bench players while his minutes are maintained within a certain range. Call it the "Trevor Ariza effect." Carlisle explained after game five that he managed McConnell's late game minutes based on McConnell being fatigued and making some errors that seemed to be a result of that fatigue. A "stat guru" might argue that because McConnell scored 18 points in 22 minutes he would have scored 36 points in 44 minutes, but that is not how NBA basketball works; if McConnell had played 22 more minutes it is much more likely that his turnovers and missed field goals would have increased than that his point total would have doubled. 

"Stat gurus" focus too much on per minute and per possession statistics without understanding or acknowledging other factors, and that faulty, limited way of conceptualizing the game leads "stat gurus" to make flawed assertions, such as declaring that Manu Ginobili was just as good as Kobe Bryant, which is demonstrably false for a variety of reasons, including the difference between being a player who logs heavy minutes as the number one option versus being a player who logs limited minutes while often playing against bench players. Understanding that difference is one reason that I correctly predicted that James Harden would not lead a team to the NBA Finals as a number one option even though he was efficient as the third option for the Kevin Durant-Russell Westbrook Thunder team that reached the 2012 NBA Finals. 

Talking about "adjustments" and substitution patterns is one way that commentators attempt to sound well-informed even when they lack foundational knowledge about the NBA game. The reality is that the best "adjustment" is playing harder. Coaches usually have good reasons for their substitution patterns, based on their observations of their players in practices and in games. The Hartenstein-Wallace change is an unusual example of a coach outsmarting himself--probably based on some "stat guru" feeding him nonsense about the supposed advantages of using a small lineup against Indiana--and it is fortunate for the Thunder that Daigenault was not too stubborn to reverse course before the Thunder fell into a 3-1 hole.

Labels: Indiana Pacers, Isaiah Hartenstein, Jalen Williams, Oklahoma City Thunder, Pascal Siakam, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Tyrese Haliburton

posted by David Friedman @ 2:02 PM

9 comments

Grit and Poise: Thunder Outlast Pacers to Reclaim Homecourt Advantage

The Indiana Pacers led the Oklahoma City Thunder 86-76 with less than a minute remaining in the third quarter of game four of the NBA Finals, but the Thunder outscored the Pacers 35-18 the rest of the way--including 12-1 in the final 3:20--to win 111-104 and reclaim homecourt advantage. The series shifts back to Oklahoma City on Monday night tied 2-2 after the Pacers led 1-0 and 2-1. This was the Thunder's second lowest scoring total in a win in the 2025 playoffs; they lost five of their previous six playoff games when they scored less than 112 points, but they are 12-1 in the 2025 playoffs when they score at least 112 points. The Thunder improved to 5-0 following a loss in 2025 playoffs.

The Thunder cruised through most of the 2024-25 regular season and went 12-4 in their first 16 playoff games, but beating the Indiana Pacers in the NBA Finals has been a tough challenge for the Thunder, who displayed a lot of grit and poise to come from behind to win on the road versus a team that has thrived in games that are close late in the fourth quarter.

The Thunder prevailed by outscoring the Pacers 50-36 in the paint after being outscored 50-48 in the paint in their game three loss. The Thunder also outrebounded the Pacers 43-33 while holding the Pacers to 34-80 (.425) field goal shooting. We are often told that range shooting and spreading the floor are essential for teams to be successful in today's NBA, but the Thunder won despite shooting just 3-17 (.176) from three point range because size matters in the NBA, and because controlling the paint is a major factor for a championship contender. 

The biggest change that Thunder Coach Mark Daigneault made--literally and figuratively--was reinserting Isaiah Hartenstein in the starting lineup after replacing him with Cason Wallace in the first three games of this series. The move back to Hartenstein may not have seemed to help the Thunder when the Pacers jumped out to a 24-15 first quarter lead, but going back to the lineup and player rotation that enabled the Thunder to be a dominant team during the regular season and first three rounds of the playoffs paid dividends as the Thunder wore down the Pacers the rest of the way. Wallace's minutes have decreased from 33 in game one to 23 in game two, 24 in game three, and 19 in game four. Hartenstein's minutes have been fairly consistent--17, 22, 18, 21--but the Thunder won the two games when he played at least 20 minutes and lost the two games when he played less than 20 minutes. Daigneault tried to be clever by changing his starting lineup for the first three games and that move backfired, but he deserves credit for recognizing his mistake before it was too late to salvage this series.

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander scored a game-high 35 points on 12-24 field goal shooting and 10-10 free throw shooting, including 15 fourth quarter points. He had no assists, but sometimes the most effective way for a team's best player to impact winning is to accept the burden of scoring even when the defense is tilted against him. Instead of insisting on making the "right" play, Gilgeous-Alexander made winning plays by putting the ball in the basket when the game was up for grabs. He has scored 131 points in this series so far, the third most points scored by a player in the first four NBA Finals games of his career, trailing only Rick Barry (165) and Allen Iverson (141). Jalen Williams often initiated the offense while Gilgeous-Alexander played off of the ball, and Williams finished with 27 points, seven rebounds, and three assists. Alex Caruso contributed 20 points and a game-high tying five steals in 30 minutes off of the bench. Chet Holmgren powered his thin frame to 14 points and a game-high 15 rebounds. 

Pascal Siakam led the Pacers with 20 points and a game-high tying five steals while also grabbing eight rebounds, but he shot just 6-15 from the field. Nine Pacers played in this game, and Siakam was one of just three with a positive plus/minus number (+7, best on the Pacers). Tyrese Haliburton scored 18 points and had a game-high seven assists but he also had a game-high five turnovers. Obi Toppin scored 17 points and snared seven rebounds in 29 minutes off of the bench, but he had a game-worst -15 plus/minus number. 

The Thunder became accustomed to easy, pretty wins during their dream regular season and for two of the first three rounds of the playoffs, but the NBA Finals have been a series of battles that are testing--and forging--the championship mettle of both teams. If the Thunder keep Hartenstein in the starting lineup, don't make any silly rotation changes, and use their size to dominate the paint then they have a great chance to prevail in game five to move to within one win of an NBA title.

Labels: Alex Caruso, Cason Wallace, Chet Holmgren, Indiana Pacers, Isaiah Hartenstein, Jalen Williams, Obi Toppin, Oklahoma City Thunder, Pascal Siakam, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Tyrese Haliburton

posted by David Friedman @ 2:09 AM

0 comments

Pacers Ride Big Fourth Quarter to Beat Thunder, Take 2-1 Series Lead

The Oklahoma City Thunder jumped out to a nine point first quarter lead, but the Indiana Pacers erased that deficit with a huge second quarter, and then used a big fourth quarter to outlast the Thunder, 116-107, to take a 2-1 series lead. The Thunder are renowned for forcing more turnovers than they commit and then pouncing on those extra possessions to score easy baskets, but in this game the Pacers scored 21 points off of 19 turnovers while giving up 14 points off of 14 turnovers. The Pacers also outscored the Thunder in the paint 50-48, and the Pacers had 17 fast break points compared to just 10 for the Thunder. The Pacers' bench outscored the Thunder's bench, 49-18. It is worth emphasizing that the Thunder changed their starting lineup before this series began--going small by inserting Cason Wallace in place of Isaiah Hartenstein--while the Pacers quite logically stuck with what has worked for them throughout the playoffs. 

Role players tend to play better at home than on the road, and this game provided further evidence supporting that notion. Bennedict Mathurin scored a game-high and playoff career-high 27 points in 22 minutes off of the bench. His +16 plus/minus number was the second best in this game behind his teammate Obi Toppin (+18), who had eight points, six rebounds, and two blocked shots in 28 minutes off of the bench. T.J. McConnell became the first player in NBA Finals history with 10 points, five assists, and five steals off of the bench, posting a +12 plus/minus number in 15 minutes.

The Pacers' two big name starters made major contributions. Tyrese Haliburton scored 22 points, collected a game-high 11 assists, and grabbed a team-high nine rebounds. Pascal Siakam authored a strong all-around game with 21 points, six rebounds, four assists, and no turnovers in 32 minutes. 

Jalen Williams led the Thunder with 26 points on 9-18 field goal shooting. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander had a rough game by his lofty standards, finishing with 24 points on 9-20 field goal shooting along with eight rebounds, four assists, and a game-high six turnovers; he had just set the record for most points scored in a player's first two NBA Finals games (72), breaking Allen Iverson's mark by one point. Chet Holmgren added 20 points and a game-high 10 rebounds, but he shot just 6-15 from the field.

The Thunder lost in the second round of the playoffs last year because they had a small team that could be pushed around in the paint, and that is why they acquired Hartenstein, who started 53 of the 57 regular season games that he played this season before starting each of the Thunder's first 16 playoff games. The Thunder went 45-8 in the 53 regular season games that Hartenstein started, and they went 12-4 in the 16 playoff games that he started. Hartenstein has now come off of the bench in each of the first three games of the NBA Finals, and the Thunder are 1-2 in those games. I don't know or care what the "advanced stats" say, but the statistic that matters most--wins and losses--speaks loudly, screaming, "If it ain't broke, don't fix it."    

Prior to this game, Hartenstein led the Thunder in playoff field goal percentage (.619) and he ranked second in playoff rebounding (7.9 rpg). Rather than matching down to the Pacers by playing small, the Thunder would be better served by using their size to their advantage. 

The problem is not just that the Thunder went small, but that they went small in a demonstrably ineffective manner. Wallace had a -15 plus/minus number in the second quarter when the Pacers outscored the Thunder, 40-28. Instead of enjoying a double digit halftime lead, the Thunder trailed by four, 60-56. The Thunder won the third quarter 29-20 with Hartenstein playing five minutes and Wallace playing less than one minute. The Thunder lost the fourth quarter 32-18 with Wallace playing five minutes (-9 plus/minus number) and Hartenstein playing three minutes (-6 plus/minus number).

This is not meant to suggest that Hartenstein and Wallace are the two most important players in this series. The point is that players are creatures of habit and repetition, as are teams; changing the starting lineup for no good reason prior to the start of the series sends a message--to both teams--that the Thunder don't think that they can win the series by doing the same things in the same way that they did to reach the NBA Finals. The impact of who is playing with whom has a ripple effect throughout the roster, and sows unnecessary uncertainty, as players wonder if they will be the next ones whose roles are changed/reduced.

The Pacers deserve full credit for playing well, and for outplaying one of the most dominant regular season teams in NBA history, but there is no getting around the fact that the Thunder's starting lineup change is a major story in this series. It is not too late for the Thunder to salvage their season and win this series, but time is running short: in NBA playoff history, teams that take a 2-1 series lead go on to win the series nearly 80% of the time, but the Thunder overcame a 2-1 deficit versus the Denver Nuggets to win the series, 4-3. Hartenstein started all seven games in that series, averaging 11.0 ppg and 8.7 rpg while shooting .590 from the field. His size and productivity made a difference in that series, and they could make a difference in the NBA Finals as well.

The good news for Thunder fans is that game to game momentum is a myth; each game in a playoff series is a separate event that starts with a 0-0 score. However, matchups and matchup advantages matter, and the team that wins the series is the team that best exploits its advantages while hiding/minimizing its disadvantages; the Thunder's size advantage will not matter if Coach Mark Daigneault refuses to exploit it.

Labels: Bennedict Mathurin, Cason Wallace, Indiana Pacers, Isaiah Hartenstein, Oklahoma City Thunder, Pascal Siakam, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, T.J. McConnell, Tyrese Haliburton

posted by David Friedman @ 1:56 AM

8 comments

Rolling Thunder: Oklahoma City Slows Down Indiana, Ties Series at 1-1

After losing game one of the NBA Finals to the Indiana Pacers in stunning fashion, the Oklahoma City Thunder led game two 26-20 at the end of the first quarter and never trailed the rest of the way en route to a 123-107 victory. The Thunder outrebounded the Pacers 43-35 after being outrebounded 56-39 in game one, but the biggest difference is that the Thunder shot 40-82 (.488) from the field after shooting just 39-98 (.398) from the field in game one. The Thunder outscored the Pacers in each of the first three quarters before losing the fourth quarter 33-30 because of a cosmetic 11-6 run by the Pacers during which the outcome was never in doubt.

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander scored a game-high 34 points on 11-21 field goal shooting, he dished for a game-high eight assists, and he had a game-high four steals. Gilgeous-Alexander scored at least 30 points in a home playoff game for the ninth straight time, tying an NBA record set by Wilt Chamberlain from 1961-64. Gilgeous-Alexander is not only an efficient and prolific scorer, but he attracts so much defensive attention that he creates easy scoring opportunities for his teammates. The term "gravity" seemingly has been trademarked only for use in reference to Stephen Curry even though the reality is that great players have tilted the floor/commanded double teams/exerted "gravity" throughout basketball history. Gilgeous-Alexander has scored 72 points in the first two games of his first NBA Finals appearance; in contrast, Curry scored just 45 points in his first two NBA Final games, producing 26 points on 10-20 field goal shooting in a 108-100 overtime win versus Cleveland in the 2015 NBA Finals and then scoring 19 points on 5-23 field goal shooting in a 95-93 overtime loss to Cleveland in that series. Curry's Warriors trailed 2-1 in that series before winning the title in six games as Andre Iguodala earned the Finals MVP. Gilgeous-Alexander is already a more impactful player at both ends of the court than Curry was during his prime, and Gilgeous-Alexander is still improving.

Alex Caruso, known primarily as a defensive stopper, poured in 20 points on 6-11 field goal shooting in 27 minutes off of the bench. Jalen Williams shot poorly from the field (5-14) for the second game in a row, but still finished with 19 points, five rebounds, and five assists. Aaron Wiggins made a big impact with 18 points off of the bench in 21 minutes, logging by far the best/plus minus number (+24) of any player in this game. Chet Holmgren bounced back from a subpar game one performance to finish with 15 points, six rebounds, and one blocked shot.

Replacing Isaiah Hartenstein with Cason Wallace in the starting lineup proved disastrous in game one, but in game two the Thunder played so much better overall that the change had less of an obvious impact; after posting a game-worst -13 plus/minus number in game one, Wallace had a +12 plus/minus number in game two while scoring four points in 23 minutes. Wallace did not light up the scoreboard, but at least he did not torch the Thunder's chances to win. Hartenstein led the Thunder in rebounding (eight) for the second game in a row, he ranked second on the team in assists (four), and he had the Thunder's second best plus/minus number (+17) despite scoring just three points in 22 minutes. Coach Mark Daigneault did not overtly admit that his lineup switch was a mistake by switching back, but in game one Wallace played 33 minutes and Hartenstein played just 17 minutes, compared to 23 and 22 respectively in game two. Look for Hartenstein's minutes to increase and Wallace's minutes to decrease even if Daigneault stubbornly sticks with his changed starting lineup.

Game one hero Tyrese Haliburton scored a team-high 17 points and had a team-high tying six assists, but he also had a game-high five turnovers. Haliburton's scoring total is inflated by his 12 fourth quarter points when the Pacers trailed by at least 15 points during the entire final stanza; he did not have much of an impact during the first three quarters. Six other Pacers scored between 11 points and 16 points. Pascal Siakam shot just 3-11 from the field, finishing with 15 points, a team-high seven rebounds, and four assists. T.J. McConnell had 11 points plus a game-high tying six assists. The Pacers tried to get the job done by committee, but the Thunder not only have a better committee but they also clearly have the best individual player in Gilgeous-Alexander. 

The Pacers own homecourt advantage in this series thanks to their game one win, but the Thunder have beaten the Pacers three of the last four games that they played, and the Thunder have looked like the superior team for the vast majority of time during those four games. As the series shifts venues, there will be different officiating crews and other game to game changes, and the Pacers' bench players will likely perform better than they did in Oklahoma City, but the better team generally prevails in a seven game series and the Thunder have demonstrated that they are the better team.

Some 1-1 series are more "equal" than others; in the 1991 NBA Finals, the Chicago Bulls lost game one to the L.A. Lakers on a last second shot, won game two 107-86, and won the next three games to clinch the first of their six NBA titles. It would not be surprising to see this series follow a similar course.

Labels: Alex Caruso, Indiana Pacers, Jalen Williams, Oklahoma City Thunder, Pascal Siakam, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Tyrese Haliburton

posted by David Friedman @ 11:10 AM

0 comments

Never Too Late: Haliburton's Last Second Game Winner Stuns Thunder, Lifts Pacers to 1-0 NBA Finals Lead

The Indiana Pacers did not enjoy the lead once in the first 47:59.7 of game one of the NBA Finals versus the Oklahoma City Thunder--but they very much enjoyed having the lead for the final :00.3 after Tyrese Haliburton drained the game-winning jump shot in a stunning 111-110 victory. This is the fifth time in the 2025 playoffs that the Pacers won after trailing by at least 15 points, and they have accomplished that feat at least once in each of their four playoff series versus Milwaukee, Cleveland (twice), New York, and now Oklahoma City. The Pacers trailed 94-79 at the 9:42 mark of the fourth quarter versus the Thunder, and were still behind 108-99 with 2:52 left in the fourth quarter, but they kept chipping away until Haliburton delivered the dagger after Shai Gilgeous-Alexander missed a shot with 11 seconds remaining that could have given the Thunder a three point cushion.

Six Pacers scored in double figures, including all five starters. The 2025 Larry Bird Eastern Conference Finals MVP Pascal Siakam had a team-high 19 points on 7-15 field goal shooting while grabbing 10 rebounds. Obi Toppin added 17 points off of the bench, and Myles Turner contributed 15 points, nine rebounds, and three blocked shots. Haliburton had 14 points, 10 rebounds, and a game-high tying six assists. Andrew Nembhard scored 14 points while dishing for a game-high tying six assists. Aaron Nesmith made his presence felt with 10 points plus a game-high 12 rebounds. 

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander poured in a game-high 38 points on 14-30 field goal shooting in his first career NBA Finals game. The moment seemed a little big for Jalen Williams, who finished with 17 points on 6-19 field goal shooting. The Thunder forced 25 turnovers and had 14 steals, but they scored just 11 points off of those extra possessions; the Pacers deserve credit for not just giving up after they turned the ball over, but the Thunder also missed a lot of high quality shots from all over the court. 

Even though the Thunder led most of the way, they failed to deliver the killer third quarter blow that is their trademark. Why was this game different? The answer, as is often the case in an NBA game, is found not in the third quarter or even in the fourth quarter, but rather in the first quarter. The Thunder went 12-4 during the 2025 playoffs with a starting lineup of Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Lu Dort, Jalen Williams, Chet Holmgren, and Isaiah Hartenstein, and they went 2-0 versus the Pacers in the regular season with that starting lineup--but Coach Mark Daigneault replaced Hartenstein with Cason Wallace in the starting lineup for game one. Wallace finished with six points on 3-9 field goal shooting in 33 minutes, posting a game-worst -13 plus/minus number, while Hartenstein had nine points and a team-high nine rebounds in 17 minutes while notching a +2 plus/minus number. Sometimes the best "adjustment" is to not overthink things but to just stay the course and show confidence that your team's league-leading record is not a fluke; it will be interesting to see if Daigneault concedes his error and reinstates Hartenstein in the starting lineup for game two, or if he doubles down by keeping Wallace in the starting lineup.

The Pacers outrebounded the Thunder 56-39, and the Thunder shot just 39-98 (.398) from the field, so it is evident that going small and changing the rotation backfired in multiple ways: Wallace was not productive as a starter, limiting Hartenstein's minutes hurt the Thunder on the glass, and the Thunder were much less efficient than usual offensively. Players are creatures of habit, so changing the starting lineup can have a downstream effect on the entire roster--not to mention that the favorite team should not show any sign of weakness, including suggesting that their starting lineup is not good enough to beat the opposing team's starting lineup. Daigneault's questionable move is reminiscent of how Avery Johnson outcoached himself 18 years ago in the first round of the 2007 playoffs; the 42-40 Golden State Warriors upset Johnson's 67-15 Dallas Mavericks after the Mavericks changed their starting lineup prior to game one, going small to match up with Golden State's small lineup. The Warriors won game one, and later won the series 4-2. 

This game's ending provided an example of Rick Carlisle's evolution as a coach; he has always been a smart and strategic coach, but in his early years he could be inflexible and he tended to micromanage game situations; young Carlisle would probably have called a timeout after Nembhard's defensive rebound with 6.9 seconds remaining, but veteran Carlisle trusted his team to play out the final seconds, and they rewarded his trust by getting the ball to Haliburton, who coolly delivered the dagger. 

The series is not over, and momentum does not carry over to the next game, but game one winners go on to take the series more than 77% of the time so the Pacers are in command of this series unless the Thunder not only tie the series but also win a game in Indiana.

Labels: Cason Wallace, Indiana Pacers, Isaiah Hartenstein, Jalen Williams, Oklahoma City Thunder, Pascal Siakam, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Tyrese Haliburton

posted by David Friedman @ 4:03 AM

5 comments

Oklahoma City Versus Indiana Preview

NBA Finals

Oklahoma City (68-14) vs. Indiana (50-32)

Season series: Oklahoma City, 2-0

Indiana can win if…Tyrese Haliburton orchestrates an efficient fast-paced attack with high percentage shooting and minimal turnovers. Haliburton has been very consistent in the first two playoff runs of his young career: last year he averaged 18.7 ppg, 8.2 apg, and 4.8 rpg with shooting splits of .488/.379/.850 while leading the Pacers to the Eastern Conference Finals, and so far this year he has averaged 18.8 ppg, a league-leading 9.8 apg, and 5.7 rpg with shooting splits of .466/.333/.804 while leading the Pacers to their first NBA Finals appearance since 2000. He did not make the All-Star team in 2025 after earning two straight selections from 2023-24, but he is the engine that makes the Pacers go. Haliburton conducted the show as the Pacers ran past the New York Knicks in the Eastern Conference Finals after upsetting the East-leading Cleveland Cavaliers in the second round.

Pascal Siakam led the Pacers in scoring (20.1 ppg) during the regular season, and this was the sixth straight season he averaged at least 20 ppg. The three-time All-Star was the Pacers' only All-Star this season, and he is leading the Pacers in playoff scoring (21.1 ppg). Siakam won the 2025 Larry Bird Eastern Conference Finals MVP, and he played a key role for Toronto's 2019 championship team. The Pacers have few set plays for him, but he runs the floor well and he is an efficient three level scorer when the game slows down.

Myles Turner twice led the NBA in blocked shots (2019, 2021), and he ranked in the top 10 in blocked shots in eight of the past nine seasons, including 2024-25 (2.0 bpg, third). He is not a great rebounder (6.5 rpg this season, 6.8 rpg for his career, 4.9 rpg in the 2025 playoffs) but he is an efficient double figure scorer (15.6 ppg on .481 field goal shooting during the regular season, 15.2 ppg on .525 field goal shooting during the playoffs).

Aaron Nesmith leads the Pacers in three point field goals made (43) in the 2025 playoffs, and he ranks first in three point field goal percentage (.500) among the eight Pacers who have each made at least 10 three pointers during the playoffs. He is also a physical, crafty defensive player who ranks third on the Pacers in playoff rebounding (5.6 rpg), second in blocked shots (.8 bpg), and fourth in steals (.9 spg).

Andrew Nembhard leads the Pacers in playoff steals (1.6 spg) while ranking second in assists (5.1 apg), third in three point field goals made (29), and second in three point filed goal percentage (.483) among the Pacers who have each made at least 10 three pointers during the playoffs.

The Pacers have a talented and deep roster, and they have exceeded all reasonable expectations for how far they could advance in the 2025 playoffs.

Oklahoma City will win because…the Thunder do many of the things that the Pacers do on offense, but the Thunder are better at most of those things: the Pacers ranked seventh in the NBA in regular season scoring (117.4 ppg) and third in field goal percentage (.488)--but the Thunder ranked fourth in regular season scoring (120.5 ppg) with just a slightly lower field goal percentage (.482). The Pacers ranked ninth in regular season three point field goal percentage (.368); the Thunder ranked sixth (.374).

The Thunder not only can match the Pacers shot for shot offensively, but the Thunder have a superior defense. The Thunder set the all-time regular season record for point differential (12.9 ppg), and they have a double digit point differential in the playoffs (10.9 ppg) even though competition is tougher in the postseason. They led the NBA in turnovers forced (17.0 tpg) during the regular season, and they are leading the playoffs with 18.0 tpg forced. The Thunder rank second in the playoffs for fewest turnovers committed (11.8 tpg, just behind the much slower paced Orlando Magic, who averaged 11.6 tpg in a five game first round loss). During the regular season, the Thunder led the league in defensive field goal percentage (.436), two point field goal percentage defense (.513), three point field goal percentage defense (.342), and steals (10.3 spg) while ranking third in points allowed (107.6 ppg); during the playoffs, the Thunder rank first in defensive field goal percentage (.426), second in two point field goal percentage defense (.501), fourth in three point field goal percentage defense (.331), first in steals (10.8 spg), and fourth in points allowed (106.3 ppg). 

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander won the 2025 regular season MVP after leading the league in scoring with a career-high 32.7 ppg, and he was even more effective in his two games versus the Pacers this season: 39.0 ppg with shooting splits of .556/.636/.913. He also averaged 8.0 apg and 7.0 rpg in those games while committing just one turnover in 69 minutes. The Pacers defended Jalen Brunson well in the Eastern Conference Finals, and Brunson still averaged 30.7 ppg on .504 field goal shooting. Gilgeous-Alexander is bigger and more athletic than Brunson, so to say that the Pacers have their hands full is a massive understatement.

Most championship teams have an All-Star one-two punch. Jalen Williams, who turned 24 two months ago, earned his first All-Star selection in 2025, averaging 21.6 ppg, 5.3 rpg, and 5.1 apg to set new career highs in all three categories. He has maintained similar production in the playoffs (20.4 ppg, 5.8 rpg, 5.3 apg). Williams is not as consistent or as dominant as Gilgeous-Alexander, but when Williams is scoring efficiently the Thunder are almost impossible to beat.

Lu Dort looks like a linebacker masquerading as an NBA defensive stopper. Despite averaging a modest 10.1 ppg during the regular season (seventh on the team) he ranked third in minutes played per game because he is the quintessential "3 and D" wing. Dort shot a career-high .412 from three point range this season, but he has slumped to .304 during the playoffs.

The Thunder could be bullied in the paint in the 2023-24 season, but that ended after the summer 2024 acquisition of 7-0, 255 pound center Isaiah Hartenstein, who averaged 11.2 ppg and a team-high 10.7 rpg during the regular season and 9.2 ppg plus 7.9 rpg during the playoffs.

Chet Holmgren is slender but he is not afraid to play in the paint, as demonstrated by his 15.0 ppg, 8.0 rpg, and team-high 2.2 bpg during the regular season. In the playoffs, he is averaging 16.4 ppg, 8.6 rpg, and 2.0 bpg. 

Alex Caruso's modest boxscore numbers do not indicate his huge impact on team success. He can provide full court pressure defense against point guards, and he can guard Nikola Jokic in the post (at least for brief stretches). Caruso, Gilgeous-Alexander, Dort, Williams, and Cason Wallace are each averaging at least 1 spg during the playoffs after also accomplishing that feat during the regular season; any dribble or pass in their vicinity is apt to be transformed into a Thunder fast break dunk or three pointer.

Other things to consider: The Pacers are a very good team that is peaking at the right time--but the Thunder are a historically great team led by a player who has a chance to be considered historically great. 

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is 26 years old and already has won a regular season MVP while earning three All-NBA First Team selections. Tracy McGrady, Gary Payton, Dwyane Wade, and Russell Westbrook each received two All-NBA First Team selections in their entire careers, and McGrady, Payton, and Wade never won a regular season MVP. Allen Iverson, Steve Nash, and Isiah Thomas each made the All-NBA First Team three times, with Iverson winning one regular season MVP, Nash winning two regular season MVPs, and Thomas winning one Finals MVP. One more All-NBA First Team selection moves Gilgeous-Alexander into a tie with Stephen Curry, Walt Frazier, and Chris Paul. If Gilgeous-Alexander wins the Finals MVP then he and Curry would be the only players in that cohort of guards who have a regular season MVP, a Finals MVP, and at least three All-NBA First Team selections. The list of guards who made the All-NBA First Team at least five times includes Kobe Bryant (11), Bob Cousy (10), Jerry West (10), Michael Jordan (10), Oscar Robertson (9), Magic Johnson (8), James Harden (6), George Gervin (5), Jason Kidd (5), and Luka Doncic (5).

Young superstars often have to learn how to share the ball and how to empower their less talented teammates, but Gilgeous-Alexander appears to be an excellent leader who enjoys a great rapport with his teammates. Whenever he is interviewed after a nationally televised game, he includes all of his teammates; with some other stars, that might come across as fake, but when Gilgeous-Alexander does it the love and respect seem to be genuine--and that connectivity is reflected in the way that the Thunder play at both ends of the court. 

The Pacers have enjoyed a remarkable playoff run, but the Thunder are clearly the better team. I predict that Oklahoma City will win in five games.

Labels: Indiana Pacers, Jalen Williams, Oklahoma City Thunder, Pascal Siakam, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Tyrese Haliburton

posted by David Friedman @ 12:01 PM

0 comments

Pacers Run Past Knicks to Advance to the NBA Finals

In a series during which the Indiana Pacers tried to play fast while the New York Knicks tried to slow the game down, Indiana ran past New York 125-108 to claim a 4-2 victory and earn a trip to the NBA Finals to face the Oklahoma City Thunder. After New York's rousing game five win, it may have been tempting to assume that the momentum in the series had shifted--but even though in game momentum exists, game to game momentum is difficult to generate: the next game starts 0-0 with different referees in front of a different crowd under different conditions in terms of injuries, foul trouble, and other factors. Thus, in my recap of New York's game five win, I concluded, "The Knicks won game five because they played harder than the Pacers. The team that plays harder will win game six, and it will likely be evident by the end of the first quarter which team will win." The Pacers won game six by playing harder, but the first half was tightly contested, with neither team leading by more than six points; the Pacers led just 58-54 at halftime before using relentless defensive pressure and blistering 7-13 (.538) three point shooting to break the game open in the third quarter: the Pacers went on a 9-0 run in the first 1:58 of the third quarter and led by double digits for most of the second half. Pascal Siakam (10 points) and Thomas Bryant (eight points) led Indiana's third quarter charge.

Siakam scored a game-high 31 points on 10-18 field goal shooting. Tyrese Haliburton bounced back from a subpar game five with 21 points on 9-17 field goal shooting along with a game-high 13 assists, six rebounds, and three steals; he had four turnovers after not committing a turnover in games four and five, but a four turnover game punctuated by aggressiveness and decisiveness is better than a passive zero turnover game such as his desultory game five: productivity and activity often matter more than so-called "efficiency." Obi Toppin contributed 18 points and six rebounds in 25 minutes off of the bench. Andrew Nembhard had 14 points, eight rebounds, and a game-high six steals as he spearheaded a great team defensive effort that produced 34 points off of turnovers. Bryant finished with 11 points in just 13 minutes.

OG Anunoby led the Knicks with 24 points. Karl-Anthony Towns added 22 points and a game-high 14 rebounds, but he shot just 8-19 from the field. Mikal Bridges scored 15 points but had a game-high tying five turnovers. Jalen Brunson was the leading scorer in the series (30.7 ppg), but in game six he had a series-low 19 points on 8-18 field goal shooting while committing a game-high tying five turnovers; the Pacers' pressure defense wore him down in this game specifically, and in the series in general after he scored 43 points on 15-25 field goal shooting in New York's deflating game one loss; even though the Knicks won two games in this series, it is fair to say that they never recovered from blowing a 14 point lead in the final 2:45 of the fourth quarter of game one before losing in overtime; these teams proved to be evenly matched--separated by just 11 points over six games--and thus giving away game one was a fatal blow. 

Tyrese Haliburton is the engine for the Pacers' attack, but--to mix metaphors--Pascal Siakam is the barometer: the Pacers won each of the three games in this series when Siakam scored at least 30 points--including his playoff career-high 39 point outburst in game two--and they went 1-2 in the three games when he scored 17 points or less. In the Eastern Conference Finals, Siakam averaged a team-high 24.8 ppg with shooting splits of .524/.500/.674 while ranking second on the team in rebounding (5.0 rpg), tied for second in assists (3.5 apg), third in steals (1.3 spg), and third in three point field goals made (10) as the Pacers made more three pointers than the Knicks (73-62) with a better three point shooting percentage (.390-.332). Siakam received the Larry Bird Eastern Conference Finals MVP; previous award winners include Jayson Tatum (2022), Jimmy Butler (2023), and Jaylen Brown (2024).

When the Pacers started the season 10-15, it is doubtful that anyone outside of their locker room envisioned not only a return trip to the Eastern Conference Finals but reaching the NBA Finals for the first time in 25 years and just the second time in franchise history (the Pacers won three ABA titles--1970, 1972-73--and played in the ABA Finals five times). Coach Rick Carlisle, who led the underdog Dallas Mavericks to the 2011 NBA title, did a masterful job of not only getting the Pacers back on track in the regular season but also navigating through upsets of two favored teams (the number one seeded Cleveland Cavaliers and the New York Knicks) in the playoffs. Carlisle will be making his second NBA Finals appearance as a coach after guiding teams to the Eastern Conference Finals four times (Detroit in 2003; Indiana in 2004, 2024-25) and to the Western Conference Finals one time (Dallas in 2011). The Pacers face a daunting challenge against the Oklahoma City Thunder, but that will be the subject of another article.

This game marked the end of an era in not just sports history but television history: the final episode of TNT's "Inside the NBA" aired. Although the famous studio crew of Ernie Johnson, Kenny Smith, Charles Barkley, and Shaquille O'Neal will still be together in some format next season on ABC/ESPN, there is a strong sense that things will not be quite the same as they were when TNT did pregame shows, game telecasts, and postgame shows. ABC/ESPN has not done a great job with its NBA coverage--to put it mildly--and there are justifiable fears that they will figure out some way to mess up a quartet that they tried unsuccessfully to match for a long time. The TNT foursome found the right mixture of humor combined with insightful analysis, and they made it look a lot easier than it is (as ABC/ESPN has proven, in a negative way). In "Going Inside," the behind the scenes show about TNT's last season covering the NBA, Johnson noted that in this life filled with uncertainties there are only three things that we can control: 

1) Our attitude

2) How hard we work

3) How we treat people

Those words of wisdom provide a glimpse into how special Johnson is as a person, not just as a broadcaster.

The NBA on TNT will be missed, and it will never be forgotten by NBA fans.

Labels: Andrew Nembhard, Indiana Pacers, Jalen Brunson, Karl-Anthony Towns, New York Knicks, Pascal Siakam, Tyrese Haliburton

posted by David Friedman @ 11:50 AM

1 comments

Knicks Slow Down Pacers, 111-94

The New York Knicks jumped out to a 10-3 lead, never trailed, and held the Indiana Pacers to their lowest point total of the 2025 playoffs in a 111-94 game five win. The Knicks saved their season just two days after the Pacers scored 130 points at home in their game four victory, the Pacers' second highest scoring total in the 2025 playoffs, trailing only their 138 points in their game one overtime win versus the Knicks. The series shifts back to Indianapolis on Saturday night with the Pacers having a second opportunity to eliminate the Knicks and advance to the NBA Finals for the first time since 2000--but if the Knicks win again then game seven will be played in New York on Monday night. In game five, the Knicks limited the Pacers to 16 fast break points after allowing 22 in game five, they outrebounded the Pacers 45-40, they outscored the Pacers 60-34 in the paint, and they committed 15 turnovers while forcing 19 turnovers.

Jalen Brunson scored a game-high 32 points on 12-18 field goal shooting while also dishing for a team-high tying five assists and grabbing five rebounds. Karl-Anthony Towns had 24 points plus a game-high 13 rebounds. Towns shot 10-20 from the field, and he aggressively attacked in the paint instead of settling for three pointers. Brunson and Towns are the first teammates to each score at least 20 points in the first five games of a Conference Finals series since Shaquille O'Neal and Kobe Bryant accomplished that feat in the 2002 Western Conference Finals. Brunson and Towns are defensive liabilities at times, but that was not the case in this game, as indicated by their plus/minus numbers (+18 and +26 respectively). Mikal Bridges scored 12 points and had a team-high tying five assists. Josh Hart came off of the bench but still played 34 productive minutes (12 points, 10 rebounds, four assists). 

Bennedict Mathurin led the Pacers with 23 points and nine rebounds in 25 minutes off of the bench, but the Pacers' starters scored just 37 points on 13-39 (.333) field goal shooting. Pascal Siakam, who had 15 points on 5-13 field goal shooting, was the only starter who scored more than eight points. Tyrese Haliburton, who had a historic triple double in game four, notched a game-high six assists and had no turnovers for the second consecutive game, but he scored just eight points on 2-7 field goal shooting; he is the engine that drives the Pacers' high octane offensive attack, but that engine was stuck in neutral for most of game five as the Knicks pressured Haliburton all over the court.

The Knicks led 86-64 with 2:12 left in the third quarter, but the Pacers cut the margin to 96-84 on a Jarace Walker three pointer at the 8:15 mark of the fourth quarter. The Pacers won game one in overtime despite trailing by 14 points with 2:45 remaining in the fourth quarter, but this time the Knicks responded with a 6-0 run and led by at least 14 points the rest of the way.

Many playoff games inspire dramatic overreactions punctuated by phrases such as "Team X made a big adjustment," or "Team X really found something that changed the momentum of the series." During the 2013 NBA Finals, 11-time NBA champion Bill Russell sagely noted, "You have to make adjustments that your team can make." An adjustment will only work if it is something that a team has previously practiced and is thus mentally/physically prepared to execute; contrary to widely disseminated narratives, teams are not coming up with entirely new game plans on the fly. When Jeff Van Gundy was an analyst for ABC/ESPN, he consistently refuted the notion that in-game adjustments decide the outcomes of playoff series and he emphasized that "play harder" is the best "adjustment" that a team can make. 

After game five, Indiana Coach Rick Carlisle repeatedly mentioned that his team did not play with enough energy and force, and New York Coach Tom Thibodeau dismissed the notion that he had made any significant offensive or defensive adjustments.

The Knicks won game five because they played harder than the Pacers. The team that plays harder will win game six, and it will likely be evident by the end of the first quarter which team will win.

Labels: Indiana Pacers, Jalen Brunson, Karl-Anthony Towns, New York Knicks, Pascal Siakam, Tyrese Haliburton

posted by David Friedman @ 12:17 PM

0 comments

Pacers Outrun Knicks, Take 3-1 Lead in Eastern Conference Finals

The Indiana Pacers hit the New York Knicks with a 43 point first quarter, and may have delivered a knockout blow with a 130-121 game four win to take a 3-1 lead in the Eastern Conference Finals; teams that lead a best of seven NBA playoff series 3-1 win the series more than 95% of the time. The Knicks outrebounded the Pacers 44-33, but the Pacers forced 17 turnovers while only committing 11 turnovers, and the Pacers scored 20 points off of turnovers while giving up just nine points off of turnovers. The Pacers outscored the Knicks 50-44 in the paint, and 22-9 on fast breaks. The Pacers shot 45-88 (.511) from the field, including 13-32 (.406) from three point range, and they held the Knicks to 38-82 (.463) field goal shooting, including 12-28 (.429) from three point range. 

Tyrese Haliburton authored a virtuoso, MVP level performance, posting game-high totals in scoring (32 points), rebounding (12 rebounds), and assists (15) while not committing a turnover in 38 minutes of high usage playing time. The NBA officially began tracking individual turnovers during the 1977-78 season; since that time, no player had accumulated at least 30 points, at least 15 assists, and at least 10 assists without a turnover in a playoff game until Haliburton accomplished that feat last night; the only other players who posted 30-15-10 lines in playoff games are Oscar Robertson and Nikola Jokic. In my Eastern Conference Finals series preview, I compared Haliburton's scoring and assist numbers to those posted by a young Magic Johnson--and then I still picked New York to win the series; perhaps I should have trusted my instincts/analysis about how special Haliburton is. Young Magic was a better rebounder than Haliburton but not as good of a three point shooter. In each of his first four playoff campaigns, Magic averaged between 17.0 ppg and 18.2 ppg and between 7.0 apg and 13.5 apg; this is just Haliburton's second playoff campaign, but he is averaging 19.4 ppg and a league-high 9.8 apg in the 2025 playoffs after averaging 18.7 ppg and 8.2 apg in the 2024 playoffs. During Magic's rookie season, he teamed up with Kareem Abdul-Jabbar--who is on the short list of candidates for the title of greatest basketball player of all-time--to lead the L.A. Lakers to the NBA title. Haliburton does not have the good fortune of playing with a dominant player like Abdul-Jabbar, but Haliburton is getting the most out of his current roster.

Pascal Siakam is the Pacers' security blanket. He is not flashy and he does not get as many touches as his talent seems to warrant, but when he has the ball he goes to work. His 30 points on 11-21 field goal shooting nicely complemented Haliburton's triple double. Aaron Nesmith was listed as questionable before the game because of the sprained ankle he suffered in game three, but he scored 16 points, played tough defense, and posted a game-high +20 plus/minus number. Bennedict Mathurin poured in 20 points in just 12 minutes off of the bench. Myles Turner added 13 points, three rebounds, and three blocked shots before fouling out. Obi Toppin scored just five points, but he probably took special delight in draining a three pointer with 46.3 seconds remaining in the fourth quarter to put the Pacers up 126-116, which not only sealed the game but most likely sealed his former team's fate in the series.  

Jalen Brunson led the Knicks with 31 points and five assists, but his -16 plus/minus number reflects how badly the Knicks hemorrhaged points when he was in the game; that is not entirely his fault, but part of the problem is that he can be successfully targeted defensively. Karl-Anthony Towns had 24 points and a game-high tying 12 rebounds; he and Coach Tom Thibodeau seem to be doomed to always be the whipping boys for the Knicks' real and perceived failures, but Towns was the only New York starter with a positive plus/minus number (+3). Yes, Towns committed some dumb fouls and he jacked up too many three pointers, but the Knicks did not lose this game during his minutes. OG Anubody scored 22 points and had a -1 plus/minus number. 

This game provided another example of how often the NBA is a first quarter league: Haliburton had 15 points and six assists in the first quarter as the Pacers scored 43 points on 15-22 (.682) field goal shooting, and even though those numbers were not sustainable for the rest of the game they provided a look at the matchup advantages that the Pacers would continue to exploit: the Pacers are at their best when they play an uptempo game, and they are able to play an uptempo game when they minimize their turnovers and when they push the ball quickly up the court after a make or a miss. The Knicks scored 35 points in the first quarter but just could not keep up with the frenetic Pacers, and that continued to be the case throughout the game. The Knicks led 2-0 and 5-3 but trailed for most of the game, including the entire second half. The Pacers deserve full credit for the many things that they did well, but it must be said that the Knicks suffered self-inflicted wounds as a result of sloppy ballhandling, bad fouls, missed defensive rotations, and questionable shot selection. 

This game marked the first time in this series that the home team won a game. With a win in New York on Thursday, the Pacers can close out the series and advance to the NBA Finals for the first time since 2000.

Labels: Aaron Nesmith, Indiana Pacers, Jalen Brunson, Karl-Anthony Towns, New York Knicks, Pascal Siakam, Tyrese Haliburton

posted by David Friedman @ 7:14 PM

2 comments

Tale of Two Halves: Knicks Rally From 20 Point First Half Deficit to Edge Pacers

The New York Knicks rallied from a 20 point deficit for the third time in the 2025 playoffs, saving their season with a 106-100 win over the Indiana Pacers in game three of the Eastern Conference Finals. The Knicks can reclaim homecourt advantage by winning game four, but if they lose then they fall into a 3-1 deficit that is almost always a death sentence. The Knicks outscored the Pacers 61-42 in the second half and they held the Pacers to their lowest full game scoring total in the 2025 playoffs; the Pacers had scored at least 114 points in 10 of their first 12 playoff games this year and they won all 10 of those games, but they are now 0-3 when they score 104 points or less.

New York Coach Tom Thibodeau, who changes his lineups about as often as Halley's Comet appears, started Mitchell Robinson in place of Josh Hart to add size and paint defense. Robinson's numbers don't jump out of the boxscore (six points, six rebounds) but he had a +1 plus/minus number in 29 minutes. Karl-Anthony Towns was missing in action (or inaction to be precise) during the first three quarters when he had as many fouls (four) as points, but he poured in 20 fourth quarter points as the Knicks won the final stanza, 36-20. Towns finished with game-high totals in points (24), rebounds (15), turnovers (six), and fouls (five, a total matched by three other players). Foul trouble limited Jalen Brunson to 31 minutes and he struggled with his field goal shooting (6-18), but he made all 10 of his free throws to finish with 23 points, including the floater that gave the Knicks the lead for good with 1:17 left in the fourth quarter. OG Anunoby (16 points) and Mikal Bridges (15 points) made solid contributions, and Hart played his usual all-out hustle game with eight points, 10 rebounds, and four assists.

Tyrese Haliburton led the Pacers in scoring (20 points) and assists (game-high seven). Myles Turner added 19 points, four rebounds, three assists, and two blocked shots. Pascal Siakam did not come close to matching his playoff career-high 39 point outburst in game two, finishing with 17 points and a game-worst -21 plus/minus number. Game one hero Aaron Nesmith had eight points and seven rebounds; he had 20 points combined in games two and three after scoring a playoff career-high 30 points in game one.

Thibodeau's lineup change did not pay immediate dividends; the Pacers led 30-26 at the end of the first quarter, and then pushed that margin to 20 (55-35) with 3:20 remaining in the second quarter. However, the Knicks closed the first half with a 10-3 run to cut the deficit to a manageable 13 points, and then the Knicks won the third quarter 25-22 to set up Towns' fourth quarter onslaught.

The Pacers squandered a golden opportunity to knock out the Knicks, and after enjoying a 2-0 series lead plus a 20 point second quarter lead in game three they now face the reality that overall they have outscored the Knicks by just two points in three games; if the Knicks had not thrown away game one then they would enjoy a 2-1 series advantage.

"Momentum" is one of the biggest myths about the NBA playoffs; if any team had momentum in this series it was the Pacers before the Knicks took over in the second half of game three, but game four starts 0-0 and it will be interesting to see if the Knicks continue to play with high energy and great physicality or if the Pacers get their running game into high gear while rediscovering the three point shooting that abandoned them in game three (5-25, .200). I picked the Knicks to win in seven games, and the Knicks are one road win away from putting the series on that track; paradoxically, the Knicks are just 3-5 at home in the 2025 playoffs while posting a 6-1 road record.

Labels: Indiana Pacers, Jalen Brunson, Karl-Anthony Towns, Mitchell Robinson, New York Knicks, Pascal Siakam, Tyrese Haliburton

posted by David Friedman @ 2:47 AM

0 comments

Siakam If You Got 'Em: Siakam Slams Knicks as Pacers Take 2-0 Series Lead

Pascal Siakam scored a playoff career-high 39 points on 15-23 field goal shooting to lead the Indiana Pacers to a 114-109 win over the New York Knicks in game two of the Eastern Conference Finals. Siakam is an NBA champion, a two-time All-NBA Team member, and a three-time All-Star, and his value may be overlooked by casual fans, but he has played a major role in the Pacers' tremendous 2025 playoff run. Myles Turner added 16 points, while Tyrese Haliburton ran the show with 14 points, a game-high tying 11 assists, and a team-high eight rebounds. Game one hero Aaron Nesmith contributed 12 points and seven rebounds. T.J. McConnell scored 10 points and passed for four assists in just 14 minutes off of the bench. The Pacers ranked 17th in points allowed and 23rd in defensive field goal percentage during the regular season, and they rank 13th and seventh respectively in those categories during the 16 team playoffs, but that might turn out to be good enough to win the Eastern Conference when paired with the Pacers' high octane offense.

Jalen Brunson scored a team-high 36 points and passed for a game-high tying 11 assists, but he could not quite bring the Knicks back from a 10 point fourth quarter deficit. Mikal Bridges had 20 points and seven rebounds in a game-high 45 minutes. Karl-Anthony Towns also had 20 points and seven rebounds, but he posted a team-worst -20 plus/minus number, and he scored just two fourth quarter points while sitting out more than half of the final stanza. A major problem for the Knicks is that their two best offensive players--Brunson and Towns--are defensive liabilities who are regularly targeted by opposing teams. Mitchell Robinson had a strong game off of the bench, muscling his way to a game-high nine rebounds in 29 minutes. He also had an impact defensively with a game-high three blocked shots and a forceful presence in the paint, but he scored just six points; if the Knicks could combine Robinson's defense/rebounding with Towns' offense into one player then they would have something special--and they likely would not be trailing 2-0 in this series.

The Knicks led 52-49 at halftime, but their defense collapsed in the second half as the Pacers scored 65 points on 23-41 (.561) field goal shooting. Brunson (19 points) and Bridges (17 points) were the two leading individual scorers in the second half, but Indiana's balanced and efficient attack carried the day as Siakam (16 points), Turner (14 points), and Haliburton (12 points) each scored in double figures in the second half.

The Pacers have won six straight road playoff games, including three versus the Eastern Conference's top seeded Cleveland Cavaliers; in contrast, the Knicks are just 3-5 at home in the 2025 playoffs, and they need to win at least one game in Indiana just to get a chance to add to that home win total.

Labels: Indiana Pacers, Jalen Brunson, Karl-Anthony Towns, New York Knicks, Pascal Siakam, Tyrese Haliburton

posted by David Friedman @ 12:55 AM

2 comments

Nesmith Nails Eight Three Pointers as Pacers Stun Knicks in Overtime

In game one of the Eastern Conference Finals, the All-Stars from both teams shined under the bright lights of Madison Square Garden, but Aaron Nesmith stole the show by scoring 20 of his playoff career-high 30 points in the fourth quarter as the Indiana Pacers rallied from a 14 point deficit to force overtime before prevailing over the New York Knicks, 138-135. Teams leading by at least 14 points in the final 2:45 of the fourth quarter had been 994-0 since detailed play-by-play information began being tracked in 1997-98, so it is not an exaggeration to call this the greatest and most improbable playoff comeback in at least the past 27 years. This win is a reversal of Eastern Conference Finals fortune for the Pacers, who squandered a golden opportunity to win game one on the road last year versus the Boston Celtics; the Celtics swept the Pacers en route to winning their first NBA championship since 2008.

Nesmith ranked 10th in the NBA in three point field goal percentage (career-high .431) during the regular season, and he led the Pacers in three point field goals made (27) in the 2025 playoffs prior to game one, but those numbers did not suggest that he would tie an NBA playoff record by nailing six three pointers in the fourth quarter or that he would break Indiana's playoff record by hitting eight three pointers in a game. Nesmith did not score in the overtime, but he did his part to carry the Pacers that far, and then Andrew Nembhard (seven overtime points) and Obi Toppin (four overtime points) finished the job after the Knicks took a 129-125 overtime lead.

Tyrese Haliburton scored a team-high 31 points, dished for a team-high 11 assists, and had some late game heroics of his own, drilling a shot with his foot on the three point line as time expired in regulation, tying the score at 125. Hitting clutch shots is nothing new for Haliburton, who has made five shots to tie or take the lead in the fourth quarter or overtime in this year's playoffs alone, the most such shots in a single postseason since 1997. After beating the buzzer to send the game to overtime, Haliburton thought that he had made a game-winning three pointer, so he did the "choke" sign as an homage to Reggie Miller doing the "choke" sign at Madison Square Garden during the Pacers' win in game five of the 1994 Eastern Conference Finals. Haliburton's premature celebration turned out to be prophetic, but it is worth remembering that the Pacers have a history of premature celebrations gone wrong. Miller scored 25 fourth quarter points in game five in 1994, but the Pacers lost the next two games to choke away a 3-2 series lead, and they lost in the Eastern Conference Finals three times in the next five years--sandwiched around a first round loss in 1996 and missing the playoffs in 1997--before finally reaching the NBA Finals in 2000. Miller should have learned his lesson earlier in the 1994 season: he bowed to the Chicago crowd after hitting a go ahead shot with less than one second remaining only to watch Toni Kukoc nail the game-winning three pointer on the next possession, after which the Bulls' Steve Kerr bowed toward Miller. The Pacers may want to ease up on the celebrations at least until they win a championship, something that the franchise has not accomplished since capturing the 1973 ABA title.

Pascal Siakam, a key member of Toronto's 2019 championship team, had 17 points, six assists, and five rebounds. Andrew Nembhard (15 points, four rebounds, four assists) and Myles Turner (14 points, five rebounds) made solid contributions at both ends of the court.

Jalen Brunson poured in a game-high 43 points on 15-25 field goal shooting and he passed for five assists, but he also had a game-high seven turnovers. He scored 10 points in the fourth quarter and six points in the overtime. Karl-Anthony Towns scored 35 points on 11-17 field goal shooting, and he grabbed 12 rebounds. Towns scored 13 fourth quarter points and he scored two points in the overtime. Josh Hart had a game-high 13 rebounds and a team-high seven assists along with eight points. Mikal Bridges and OG Anunoby scored 16 points each.

The Knicks led for most of the game, they outrebounded the Pacers 46-39, and they outscored the Pacers in the paint 62-50--but the Knicks committed 15 turnovers that the Pacers converted into 27 points while the Pacers had just seven turnovers and gave up just four points off of turnovers. If the Knicks had taken better care of the basketball and not given up 38 fourth quarter points then they would have won this game by double digits.

If this were the NCAA Tournament then the Pacers would survive and advance while the Knicks' season would be over--but an NBA playoff series is a race to four wins, so we will find out soon enough if this was a fluke win by an inferior team or if the Pacers are the better and tougher team. 

Labels: Aaron Nesmith, Indiana Pacers, Jalen Brunson, Karl-Anthony Towns, New York Knicks, Pascal Siakam, Tyrese Haliburton

posted by David Friedman @ 12:00 PM

2 comments

New York Versus Indiana Preview

Eastern Conference Finals

#3 New York (51-31) vs. #4 Indiana (50-32)

Season series: New York, 2-1

Indiana can win if…the Pacers' up-tempo offense breaks down New York's defense and wears down New York's players. The Pacers ranked seventh in the league in scoring (117.4 ppg) and third in field goal percentage (.488) during the regular season, and so far in the playoffs they rank second in scoring (117.7 ppg) and first in field goal percentage (.501). Their fast pace and excellent shooting stretches defenses and puts pressure on opposing players to keep up mentally and physically. 

The Pacers started the season a sluggish 6-9, but ended it a sizzling 12-3. They destroyed the East-leading 64-18 Cleveland Cavaliers in five games in the second round, winning game five 114-105 and holding the Cavaliers to 114.2 ppg on .426 field goal shooting during the series. The Cavaliers led the NBA in regular season scoring (121.9 ppg) while ranking second in field goal percentage (.491), so the Pacers appear to be improving defensively at the most important time. The Pacers are not known as a bruising team, but they pushed around the Cavaliers' vaunted double big lineup featuring 2025 Defensive Player of the Year Evan Mobley and Jarrett Allen. 

Tyrese Haliburton led the NBA in assists in the 2023-24 season with a career-high 10.9 apg, he ranked third in the league in assists this season (9.2 apg), and he is currently leading the league in assists during the playoffs (9.3 apg). His scoring and assist numbers are like those posted by a young Magic Johnson, but Johnson was a big-time rebounder while the third way that Haliburton impacts the game is three point shooting, leading the team in three point field goals made in the regular season (218) and tying for second in that category (22) so far during the playoffs. 

Pascal Siakam is not flashy, but he is effective and he has championship experience with the 2019 Toronto Raptors. He led the Pacers in scoring during the regular season (20.2 ppg), and he is leading the Pacers in scoring during the playoffs (18.8 ppg). He leads the Pacers in playoff field goal percentage (.547) after shooting .519 during the regular season, and he is second in rebounding (6.2 rpg, just behind Aaron Nesmith's 6.5 rpg). 

Myles Turner ranks third on the team in playoff scoring (16.5 ppg) and rebounding (6.0 rpg) while leading the league in blocked shots (2.5 bpg).

Five Pacers are averaging at least 29 mpg during the playoffs, and four of them (Andrew Nembhard, Pascal Siakam, Aaron Nesmith, and Myles Turner) are shooting at least .505 from the field, while the fifth (Haliburton) is shooting .474.

New York will win because…the Knicks will slow the pace, keep the games close, and rely on the clutch time heroics of Jalen Brunson, who ranks fifth in the NBA in playoff scoring (28.8 ppg) and seems to make every crucial shot in the last five minutes of close games.

Brunson is built like an NFL safety, and his game is a mixture of physicality, finesse, shooting touch, slick passing, and overall savvy. He does not seem to move fast or jump high, but he has mastered perhaps the key skill for any great offensive player: change of pace. Brunson knows how to get defenders off balance to create openings and also to draw fouls. There is so much talk about Dallas' midseason trade of All-NBA player Luka Doncic for All-NBA player Anthony Davis, but little is said about Dallas lowballing Brunson and losing him for nothing in free agency in 2022. That may turn out to be the worst player personnel move in Mavericks history, which is saying a lot considering that the Mavericks have lost or given up on Steve Nash and Luka Doncic while also breaking up their 2011 NBA championship team, which led to not advancing past the first round of the playoffs from 2012-2021.

Both of the Knicks' major offseason moves have paid dividends. It can be debated if Mikal Bridges is worth five first round draft picks, but there is no doubt that he has been productive during the regular season (17.6 ppg) and the playoffs (14.8 ppg) while playing heavy minutes and not missing any games. After being acquired from Minnesota in exchange for Julius Randle and Donte DiVincenzo, Karl-Anthony Towns ranked second on the Knicks in scoring (24.4 ppg) during the regular season while finishing second in the league in rebounding (career-high 12.8 rpg), and he is second on the team in playoff scoring (19.6 ppg) while placing fifth in the league in playoff rebounding (11.3 rpg).

OG Anunoby is averaging 15.1 ppg during the playoffs as a solid third scoring option, while Josh Hart chips in with scoring (13.5 ppg), rebounding (8.3 rpg), and assists (4.6 apg). Hart is the Knick most likely to get a triple double and most likely to get a floor burn.

During the regular season, the fact-based narrative about the Knicks was that they could not beat the teams ahead of them in the standings. That narrative has been forgotten after the Knicks took a 2-0 lead versus the 2024 NBA champion Boston Celtics, and then finished off the Celtics with a 119-81 game five rout after the Celtics lost Jayson Tatum to a ruptured right Achilles near the end of game four. 

Coach Tom Thibodeau is often criticized for shortening his rotation and playing his starters for too many minutes, but the two pillars of his coaching style--trust your best players, and try to win every game--are preferable to the load management, tanking, and other shenanigans that have infested the league.

Other things to consider: New York took a 3-2 lead versus Indiana in the second round last year after Jalen Brunson scored 44 points in a 121-91 game five win. Indiana won game six at home, and then demolished the injury-depleted Knicks 130-109 in game seven; by the end of game seven, five of New York's top eight rotation players were unavailable due to injury. It is fair to argue that a healthy New York team would have beaten Indiana last season, and that a healthy New York team should be expected to beat Indiana this season.

Towns provides the Knicks with size in the paint and elite rebounding, but he also stretches defenses with his three point shooting. He seems to drift at times and just float through games, but if he is focused he can have a big impact during this series. His former team returned to the Western Conference Finals without him, so if the Knicks take care of business there is a chance that Towns and the Knicks will face Minnesota in the NBA Finals.

New York will defeat Indiana in seven games.

Labels: Indiana Pacers, Jalen Brunson, Karl-Anthony Towns, New York Knicks, Pascal Siakam, Tyrese Haliburton

posted by David Friedman @ 11:30 PM

0 comments