Russell Westbrook's Legacy is Defined by His Work Ethic and His Elite Productivity
Russell Westbrook's catchphrase is "Why not?" and his career is defined not just by that boundless optimism but by the fierce work ethic that justified his faith in himself. Westbrook retired on Wednesday after a tremendous 18 season career, announcing the decision in a social media post that began, "Sometimes you don't even know when you've already watched the end. You had to be there. And now it's over." The post included a video of Westbrook's highlights narrated by Michael B. Jordan. Westbrook silently walked through an unfinished Museum of Unspoken Answers while wearing a shirt that reads "Don't Rock With What They Say" on the front and "Why Not?" on the back. Westbrook reportedly had offers to play this season from the Sacramento Kings--the team he played for last season--and the Washington Wizards (one of his former teams), but he decided to leave the game on his terms.
Make no mistake, Westbrook can still play--and he is not playing at a veteran minimum salary level, either. Last season,Westbrook averaged 15.2 ppg, 6.7 apg, and 5.4 rpg for the Sacramento
Kings in 64 games. Those numbers ranked 59th, 13th, and 67th in the league. He averaged more assists than regular season MVP Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, more rebounds than Tobias Harris (the starting power forward for the number one seed in the Eastern Conference), and more points than Nikola Vucevic, Jaden McDaniels, and Mikal Bridges. Westbrook ranked first on the Kings in assists, fourth in
scoring, and fourth in rebounding (minimum 300 total rebounds).
Early in the season, he passed Jason Kidd for most career rebounds by a guard. Westbrook and LeBron James are the only players in pro basketball
history who have scored at least 25,000 points and dished for at least
10,000 assists. Westbrook ranks fifth in ABA/NBA history with 10,351
assists, and 16th in ABA/NBA history with 27,176 points. He is the all-time leader in triple doubles in a career (209) and a season (42 in 2016-17). Westbrook led the league in triple doubles in six seasons (2015-19, 2021), he led the league in assists three times (2018-19, 2021), and he won two scoring titles (2015, 2017). He won the 2017 regular season MVP plus two All-Star Game MVPs (2015, 2016); unlike many of his peers, he played hard in All-Star Games. Westbrook and Oscar Robertson are the only players who averaged a triple double for an entire season, a feat that Robertson accomplished once (1961-62; he averaged an aggregate triple double for his first five seasons), and that Westbrook did four times (2017-19, 2021). Westbrook earned selection to the NBA's 75th Anniversary Team.
Westbrook reached the top of the game but--unlike many NBA superstars--he was not highly recruited out of high school. He eventually landed at UCLA, and after two years as a Bruin he worked his way up to being the fourth pick in the 2008 NBA Draft by the Seattle Supersonics, who moved to Oklahoma City before the start of the 2008-09 season. Westbrook averaged 15.3 ppg, 5.3 apg, and 4.9 rpg as a rookie to finish fourth in Rookie of the Year voting behind Derrick Rose, O.J. Mayo, and Brook Lopez.
In his third season, Westbrook earned the first of nine All-Star selections and the first of nine All-NBA Team selections after averaging 21.9 ppg, 8.2 apg (ninth in the league), and 4.6 rpg. The Thunder improved from 23-59 in Westbrook's rookie season to 50-32 in his second season to 55-27 in his third season while making the first of four Western Conference Finals appearances in a six year span. By that time, Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook had formed one of the best duos in the league. In 2011-12, Durant made All-NBA First Team, Westbrook made All-NBA Second Team, and James Harden won Sixth Man of the Year as the Thunder advanced to the NBA Finals before losing 4-1 to the Miami Heat.
The Thunder seemed poised to become the NBA's next dynasty, but that iteration of the squad did not reach the NBA Finals again. Harden refused to accept sixth man status, so the Thunder shipped him to Houston before the 2012-13 season. The Thunder did not miss a beat without Harden, finishing first in the Western Conference with a 60-22 record with Durant (All-NBA First Team) and Westbrook (All-NBA Second Team) leading the way. However, disaster struck in the second game of the first round as Houston's Patrick Beverley crashed into Westbrook, tearing Westbrook's right meniscus. The Thunder still beat the Rockets 4-2, but without Westbrook they lost to the Memphis Grizzlies 4-1 in the second round.
Westbrook did not miss a game in his first five seasons but his right knee did not completely heal prior to the 2013-14 season, and he played just 46 games in that campaign. Westbrook hit his stride down the stretch, averaging 26.2 ppg, 7.0 apg, and 6.0 rpg in six April games. Westbrook maintained that high level of play in the postseason, averaging a then playoff career high 26.7 ppg, 8.1 apg, and 7.3 rpg as the Thunder advanced to the Western Conference Finals before losing 4-2 to the eventual NBA champion San Antonio Spurs.
Many media members make no secret about playing favorites, and it was evident early in Westbrook's career that he was not on the favorites list. In 2014, I prophetically asserted that he was poised to inherit Kobe Bryant's dual status as best guard in the NBA and underrated superstar:
Kobe Bryant has been the best guard in the NBA for the better part of the past decade or so but an Achilles injury
knocked him out of the 2013 playoffs and caused him to miss most of the
2013-14 regular season before a broken leg sidelined him for the
remainder of the current campaign; he made the 2013 All-NBA First Team
but his reign as the league's top backcourt performer is likely over,
even if he returns to action next season. Bryant has been underrated for
most of his career, with critics sniping at his alleged selfishness and foolishly suggesting that the L.A. Lakers were better off when Bryant shot fewer times even when Bryant was at the height of his powers, leading the Lakers to championships while also setting various individual scoring records. There are many reasons that the Lakers have sunk to historic lows this season but the biggest single factor is that Bryant played in just six games.
One player seems poised to fill both of Bryant's roles--best guard in
the NBA and vastly underrated superstar: Russell Westbrook. Westbrook
helped lead the Oklahoma City Thunder to the best record in the Western
Conference last season (60-22) after playing a major role in the
Thunder's run to the 2012 NBA Finals but the Thunder's 2013 championship
hopes were dashed when Houston's Patrick Beverly wiped out Westbrook's
knee during the first round of the playoffs; sans Westbrook, the Thunder
struggled to eliminate the mediocre Rockets before getting blasted 4-1
in the second round by a flawed Memphis team that was promptly swept by
the San Antonio Spurs.
By 2015, Westbrook had firmly established himself as an elite player while foreshadowing the triple double dominance that would define his career:
Westbrook has already earned four All-Star selections and three All-NBA
Second Team nods but in the second half of this season he has taken his
game to a new, almost unprecedented level. Westbrook averaged 31.2 ppg,
10.3 apg and 9.1 rpg in February,
joining Oscar Robertson as the only players in NBA history to average 30
points, 10 assists and eight rebounds in a calendar month (minimum 10
games). During a five game span starting February 24, Westbrook ranked
in the
top five in the league in scoring (38.2 ppg, first), assists (9.8 apg,
third) and rebounding (12.4 rpg, ninth).
He also became just the fourth player in NBA history to have at least
three straight 40 point--five rebound--five assist games. Elgin Baylor
did this for four straight games in 1960-61, while Michael Jordan
(1988-89) and Wilt Chamberlain (1963-64) did it for three straight games
each. Baylor also did it for three straight games during the 1962-63
season.
Westbrook has performed at a high level throughout the season and he is
the only player in the league who ranks in the top five in scoring (27.3
ppg, first), assists (8.3 apg, fourth) and steals (2.1 spg, third).
Westbrook's critics say that he shoots too much, that he is selfish and
that he does not play a winning style of basketball but the Thunder's
record states otherwise. The Thunder are 30-19 with Westbrook this
season (.612 winning percentage), including 12-5 since February 1 as the
team began making a late playoff push despite being without the
services of 2014 NBA MVP Kevin Durant for much of that time (the Thunder
are 6-4 in the most recent 10 game stretch that Durant has missed). The
Thunder are just 5-10 (.333 winning percentage) without Westbrook (that
record includes some early season games that both Durant and Westbrook
missed).
In 2014-15, Durant suffered a foot fracture and played in just 27 games as the Thunder posted a respectable 45-37 record but lost a tiebreaker for the eighth and final playoff berth. With Durant sidelined most of the season, Westbrook won his first scoring title (28.1 ppg) and finished fourth in MVP voting.
The last hurrah for the Durant-Westbrook duo happened in the 2016 Western Conference Finals. The Thunder raced to a 3-1 lead versus the defending NBA champion Golden State Warriors before the record-setting 73-9 Warriors won three straight games to return to the NBA Finals. Westbrook finished fourth in MVP voting that season, while Durant was a distant fifth, and Westbrook made the All-NBA First Team while Durant made the All-NBA Second Team.
After shooting 1-7 from the field in the fourth quarter of a game six Western Conference Finals loss at home before losing game seven 96-88 on the road, Durant decided that he preferred to flee Oklahoma City to join the Warriors instead of accepting the challenge of trying to beat them.
Westbrook reacted not by complaining or demanding a trade but by signing a two year contract extension at a time when the franchise was in a vulnerable state. Over the next three seasons, Westbrook solidified his elite status while keeping the Thunder relevant, starting off with a record-setting 2016-17 season during which Westbrook became the only player other than Oscar Robertson to average a triple double for an entire season. The MVP voters have often been wrong in the past several decades, but I noted that they got it right when they selected Westbrook in 2017:
Westbrook won his second scoring title (career-high 31.6 ppg), he ranked
third in assists (10.4 apg) and he finished 10th in rebounding (10.7
rpg, an unprecedented average for a 6-3 point guard). Westbrook tallied
three 50 point triple doubles, setting both the single season and career
records in that category.
Westbrook's amazing individual numbers directly correlated with his
team's success. He broke Oscar Robertson's single season record by
notching 42 triple doubles and the Oklahoma City Thunder went 33-9 in
those games, compared to 14-26 in the remaining games; a 33-9 record
projects to 64-18 over a full 82 game season, while 14-26 projects to
29-53. Essentially, when Westbrook played at a historically great level
he elevated the Thunder to elite status but when he was "merely" good
the Thunder were the equivalent of a Draft Lottery team. The Thunder's
relative performance when Westbrook was on the court compared to when he
was off the court told the same story: with Westbrook on the court,
this flawed roster could compete with just about anyone but take
Westbrook out of the game and the Thunder morphed into the league's
worst team by far.
His critics note that Westbrook did not win an NBA title, but the
reality is that Westbrook's teams often outperformed reasonable
expectations, and his MVP season epitomizes that: the Thunder with
Westbrook leading the way sans Durant were much better than anyone could have reasonably expected.
The way that Westbrook's historically great individual performance impacted team success is the most underrated aspect of his career. As David Aldridge recently noted, Westbrook's teams posted a 153-56 record in his 209 regular season triple double games. That .732 winning percentage is equivalent to a 60-22 record for an 82 game season, and such high level team success refutes the notion that Westbrook was chasing individual glory at the cost of his teams; his teams would have not won nearly as many games if Westbrook had not played with such heart and if he had not been so productive.
In 2019 after Westbrook logged just the second 20-20-20 game in pro basketball history, I placed not just this accomplishment but Westbrook's overall dominance into historical perspective:
Russell Westbrook is on the verge of clinching his third straight season
of averaging a triple double--an unprecedented feat that is,
inexplicably, largely being ignored--and he is doing so with style:
during Oklahoma City's 119-103 win over the L.A. Lakers on Tuesday
night, Westbrook posted 20 points, 20 rebounds and 21 assists, just the
second 20-20-20 game in pro basketball history. As you probably would
guess if you did not know, Wilt Chamberlain was the first player to
accomplish this, with 22 points, 25 rebounds and 21 assists in
Philadelphia's 131-121 win over Detroit on February 2, 1968.
After Westbrook's jaw-dropping performance, Hall of Famer Isiah
Thomas--serving as a TNT commentator during the "Players Only"
telecast--said that in an era of great point guards Westbrook is not
mentioned enough. Thomas also declared that Westbrook is the "most
dominant" point guard of this era. That is true. No other point guard is
equally dominant as a scorer, rebounder and passer the way that
Westbrook is. Westbrook can match anyone in the league bucket for bucket
as a scorer, he rebounds better than most centers and he has become the
league's best playmaker, defying the critics who used to say that
Westbrook was a shooting guard masquerading as a point guard.
The best thing about Westbrook, though, is the thing that we should be
able to take for granted about pro athletes but is in fact an
increasingly rare quality: Westbrook plays hard, all the time. He would
agree with Jeff Van Gundy's oft-repeated statement that the idea of
"load management" is a load of something else...
I understand--but don't accept--that media coverage of basketball is
largely driven now by hype and memes and highlights and tweets, but how
many NBA players are actually better at playing basketball--at scoring,
rebounding and passing--than Russell Westbrook?
After the Thunder lost in the first round for the third straight year,
they traded Westbrook to Houston, reuniting him with his former teammate
James Harden. The Rockets lost in the first round in the 2020 "bubble" playoffs, and then they sent Westbrook to the Washington Wizards for John Wall.
Oscar Robertson's career triple double record stood for nearly 50 years--longer than Kareem Abdul-Jabbar's career scoring record that LeBron James broke. After Westbrook surpassed Robertson during the 2020-21 season, I placed this feat in historical context:
It is important to understand Robertson's rightful place in basketball
history in order to appreciate what Russell Westbrook has accomplished
and how great Westbrook is. Westbrook's 28 points, 21 assists, and 13
rebounds in Washington's 125-124 loss to Atlanta on Monday night broke his tie with Robertson on the career triple double list,
and established Westbrook as the all-time triple double king.
Robertson's record stood for the vast majority of NBA history up to this
point, and even with the increasing number of triple doubles we see
today it may very well be 50 years before anyone surpasses Westbrook's
final total; the second highest ranking current player, LeBron James,
has 99 triple doubles. A player could play 72 games a year for 10
seasons, have a triple double every four games, and still not match
Westbrook's current total; the high level of durability and productivity
necessary to perform like Westbrook does is vastly underrated.
The fact that the transcendently great Nikola Jokic is likely to pass Westbrook on the career triple double list next season speaks to Jokic's elite status more than it diminishes the value of Westbrook's accomplishment. Jokic currently has 198 career triple doubles, and the next active player on the list is LeBron James (125), followed by Luka Doncic (90). James is not going to approach Westbrook's total, and Doncic's triple double pace has slowed significantly in the past two years, making it unlikely that he will catch Westbrook.
Westbrook averaged a triple double (22.2 ppg, league-leading/career-high 11.7 apg, career-high 11.5 rpg) in his lone season with the Wizards. I am only being slightly hyperbolic when I say that leading the Wizards to the playoffs while averaging a triple double is sufficient to earn Hall of Fame induction for Westbrook, but it should be emphasized that the Wizards did not make the playoffs in the two years prior to Westbrook's arrival and have not made the playoffs in the five years since they traded him to the L.A. Lakers.
Perhaps the nadir for Westbrook's career was when LeBron James and his media sycophants attempted to make Westbrook the scapegoat for all of the Lakers' problems. It is worth noting that after James led the Lakers to the 2020 "bubble" title, he led the Lakers to just one Western Conference Finals, one second round loss, three first round losses, and one non-playoff season. During Westbrook's lone full season with the Lakers, he played in a team-high 78 games while James was eighth on the team with 56 games and Anthony "Don't Call me 'Street Clothes'" Davis was 11th on the team with 40 games played. I cannot recall another situation during which the team's two best players missed so many games but somehow the team's failure to perform well is supposedly the fault of the team's third option.
Hubie Brown--who is perhaps the greatest NBA game analyst of all-time--praised Westbrook's play with the Lakers even in a loss: "I'm happy for him. He never quit on himself. He keeps playing hard...He
knows that he is going to get hit (driving to the hoop) but he punishes
himself because he wants to win the game...He took over this game in
the third quarter, and you love to see it because that is who he is. You
can knock him, you can say you don't like him, but he plays hard and he
earns his money every night."
In marked contrast to Brown's objective take on Westbrook, Amin Elhassan and Zach Harper propagated the unfounded notion that Westbrook is a selfish player who allegedly stole rebounds from his teammates. In 2019, I critiqued this stubbornly held assertion in Are Rebounds Fungible?:
Last season, Westrbook led the Oklahoma City Thunder in rebounding (11.1
rpg, 10th in the league) and the team ranked second with 48.1 rpg. The
Thunder ranked sixth in rebounding differential (+2.4), which means that
their high rebounding totals are not just related to pace; they
outrebounded their opponents on a consistent basis.
This season, Westbrook plays for the Houston Rockets. If Westbrook were
"stealing" rebounds from his teammates, then one could reasonably expect
that his former team's rebounding prowess would not decline much in his
absence, and that the next best rebounder on his former team (Steven
Adams) would increase his rebounding average. Instead, through 24 games
(30% of the season) the Thunder rank 25th in rebounding (43.0 rpg) and
23rd in rebounding differential (-2.4). Adams is averaging 9.4 rpg,
essentially the same as his 9.5 rpg average last season.
Meanwhile, last season the Rockets without Westbrook ranked 28th in
rebounding (42.1 rpg) and 27th in rebounding differential (-3.4). This
season, the Rockets with Westbrook rank third in rebounding (48.0 rpg)
and ninth in rebounding differential (+1.8).
The numbers show that after losing Westbrook the Thunder went from being
an elite rebounding team to being a poor rebounding team, while after
adding Westbrook the Rockets went from being a poor rebounding team to
being an elite rebounding team. Yes, there have been other personnel
changes for both teams--particularly the Thunder, who also lost Paul
George--but if rebounds were fungible and if Westbrook were really just
"stealing" rebounds it is unlikely that his old team and his new team
would have swapped places in terms of their rebounding rankings.
Westbrook concluded his career by playing a little over one year with the L.A. Clippers followed by single season stints with the Denver Nuggets and the Sacramento Kings. During his brief time in Denver, Westbrook and Jokic set a record by becoming the first teammates to each have a triple double in the same game twice in the same season.
Westbrook's career provides a valuable prism through which to view how narratives are constructed and propagated. A major reason that the quality of media coverage is so poor is that there are low barriers to entry to become a member of the media:
Westbrook is an all-time great being covered by hacks who accuse him of padding his stats by "stealing" rebounds, a false notion that is unsupported by the numbers. Justin Termine admits that he is "an entertainer, not a journalist,"
and after listening to him I agree that he is not a journalist but I
question how entertaining he is. Termine recently asserted that
Westbrook has spent his career accumulating individual statistics that
do not correlate with team success. Termine calls himself a basketball
historian, but he apparently does not realize how rare it is for a team to reach the Western Conference Finals four times,
as the Oklahoma City Thunder did (2011, 2012, 2014, 2016) with Kevin
Durant and Westbrook leading the way. Westbrook was an All-NBA Team
member in three of those four seasons, and would have made it in all
four had he not been limited to 46 games in the 2014 season (he averaged
26.7 ppg, 8.1 apg, and 7.3 rpg during that playoff run to reaffirm his
All-NBA status).
It is notable that Hubie Brown--who Doug Collins correctly called the "gold standard" for NBA commentators--consistently praised Westbrook even when other media members like Amin Elhassan and Zach Harper took unwarranted shots at Westbrook.
A major cause of the low quality of media coverage is the low barrier to entry for the profession, a topic that I have mentioned before but
is worth discussing in greater depth. I speak from personal experience
because I spent seven years as a credentialed reporter in NBA media
rooms, so I
saw firsthand how news is gathered, how narratives are manufactured, and
how often incompetent media members ask ridiculous questions.
Before I became a credentialed reporter, I devoted myself to learning
the NBA game, learning pro basketball history, and honing my writing
skills, but I found out--to my horror--that obtaining credentials and
getting writing assignments has much less to do with what you know than
who you know. This is in marked contrasted to other professions and
endeavors. For example, in the 1990s, I was an ACE-certified personal
trainer, in 1995 I earned the U.S. Chess Federation's Expert title, and in 2016 I became an actively licensed attorney.
To become a certified personal trainer, you must pass a certification exam.
To
become a chess Expert (top 3% of all chess players in the United
States), it is necessary to earn 2000 rating points in officially
sanctioned tournaments.
To become an actively licensed attorney,
you must score high enough on the LSAT to be admitted to law school, you
must graduate law school, and you must pass the bar exam. To maintain
actively licensed status, you must earn continuing education credits.
You cannot become a certified personal trainer, a chess Expert, or an
attorney based on your connections; to achieve each of those status
levels, you must meet objective standards.
In contrast, anyone
who knows the right person can show up at a sports event as a
credentialed reporter. There is no education requirement and no
competency requirement.
The false perceptions and narratives about Westbrook's time with the Lakers may have damaged his value toward the end of Westbrook's career, but Westbrook also faced the same reality that many NBA veterans are dealing with now: the league's salary structure is focused on highly compensating the elite players combined with cost control for young players and low salaries for aging veterans. Westbrook proved long ago that he can perform at an MVP/All-NBA Team level for teams that make deep playoff runs, and he also showed that he could raise the floor of a moribund team like the Wizards. The notion that Westbrook somehow damaged his legacy by playing for several teams in his last few seasons makes as little sense as the assertion that he "stole" rebounds from teammates. Vince Carter glided into the Basketball Hall of Fame as a first ballot selection with a resume that is not half as good as Westbrook's: Carter did not win an MVP, a scoring title, or an assists title, he never made the All-NBA First Team and in his final seven seasons he played for four teams while averaging more than 10 ppg just once. Those facts are not cited to belittle Carter but rather to point out the absurdity of the comments that are made about Westbrook.
In an era during which the NBA developed a lot of collective bad habits--including overreliance on three point shooting, the rise of load management, and as many as a third of the league's teams tanking--Westbrook stands out as a player who attacked the hoop to score, rebound, and pass, who loathed missing games, and who would not dream of doing anything other than trying 100% to win every game.
The NBA is worse off without Westbrook and the example he set.
Labels: Denver Nuggets, Houston Rockets, James Harden, Kevin Durant, L.A. Lakers, Oklahoma City Thunder, Russell Westbrook, Sacramento Kings, Seattle Supersonics, Washington Wizards
posted by David Friedman @ 12:50 AM
Spurs Silence Thunder in Game Seven to Advance to NBA Finals
In game seven of the Western Conference Finals, the San Antonio Spurs started fast, finished strong, and wore down the defending NBA champion Oklahoma City Thunder, winning 111-103 on the Thunder's home court. Victor Wembanyama is without question the Spurs' best player, and he came through with a team-high 22 points plus a team-high tying seven rebounds, but this was very much a team effort: all five starters plus two reserves scored in double figures, including Julian Champagnie (20 points while shooting 6-10 from three point range), Stephon Castle (16 points, six rebounds, team-high six assists), De'Aaron Fox (15 points, five assists), Dylan Harper (12 points, team-high tying seven rebounds), Devin Vassell (11 points, six rebounds), and Keldon Johnson (11 points). The Spurs enjoyed narrow edges in rebounding (40-38) and turnovers (committing 12 while forcing 14), but won this game with their energy and force in transition, outscoring the Thunder 19-7 in fast break points.
The Spurs received the Oscar Robertson Trophy for winning the Western
Conference Championship, and Wembanyama earned the Magic Johnson
Western Conference Finals MVP, joining a club that
includes Stephen Curry (2022), Nikola Jokic (2023), Luka Doncic (2024), and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (2025). Wembanyama's Western Conference Finals numbers display his all-around dominance: 27.3 ppg, 10.9 rpg, 3.1 apg, 2.7 bpg, and 1.4 spg with shooting splits of .481/.400/.895. Wembanyama is the first player to make at least 15 three pointers and
block at least 15 shots in the same playoff series, and he is the
youngest player to lead his team in scoring and rebounding entering the
NBA Finals.
The Thunder, who took a 3-2 series lead despite dropping game one at home, played from behind for most of game seven and could not muster enough offense, shooting 37-83 (.446) from the field--including just 12-35 (.343) from beyond the arc--after ranking fifth in the league in scoring (119.0 ppg), fifth in field goal percentage (.484) and ninth in three point field goal percentage (.365) during the regular season. Throughout this series, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander played below his usual standard, but he performed at an MVP level in game seven, finishing with a game-high 35 points on 12-21 field goal shooting while also dishing for a game-high nine assists; however, he looked drained by the fourth quarter, and he had only four points on 2-4 field goal shooting in the final stanza. Cason Wallace played well (17 points, seven rebounds, four assists) while starting in place of injured 2025 All-Star Jalen Williams, but the other three starters combined for 14 points on 5-13 field goal shooting. Chet Holmgren, who earned his first selections to the All-Star team, All-NBA Third Team, and All-Defensive First Team this season, had four points, four rebounds, and two blocked shots in 34 minutes. There is no doubt that the Thunder expected and needed more from Holmgren than he provided in this game, but it is worth recalling that Dennis Johnson shot 0-14 from the field in game seven of the 1978 NBA Finals, and then earned the 1979 Finals MVP after capturing the first of three NBA titles that he won during his Hall of Fame career; one bad performance by a young player early in his career is not necessarily a reason to completely give up on him (which is not meant to suggest that I expect Holmgren to become as great a player as Johnson).
It takes nothing away from how well the Spurs played in this series--and particularly how they met the challenge after losing game five--to acknowledge that being without Jalen Williams and his replacement Ajay Mitchell (who averaged 15.1 ppg in 11 playoff games this year) proved to be too much for the Thunder to overcome. The Thunder were 2-1 with Mitchell in the Western Conference Finals and 1-3 without him; this is not just about Mitchell's numbers but about the domino effect that his absence had on the Thunder's rotation plus the extra ballhandling responsibilities that Gilgeous-Alexander had to assume with both Williams and Mitchell not available.
Injuries are part of the game, though, and attrition is a major reason why it is so difficult to win back to back titles.
The Spurs led 10-4 by the 9:11 mark of the first quarter, and were ahead 27-13 with 5:07 remaining in first quarter. We have seen some teams just quit--even on their home court--after getting hit in the mouth, but the Thunder will never be mistaken for the Cleveland Cavaliers. The Thunder cut the margin to 32-25 by the end of the first quarter. The Spurs led by as much as 11 in the second quarter, but the Thunder fought back to tie the score at 49 on a Lu Dort three pointer with 2:17 remaining. Holmgren drained a pair of free throws to give the Thunder their biggest lead of the game, 53-49, before the Spurs closed the half on a 7-0 run in the final 54 seconds.
Oklahoma City coach Mark Daigneault tried to boost his team's sagging offense by changing his second half starting lineup, inserting Jaylin Williams and Alex Caruso in place of Isaiah Hartenstein and Lu Dort. Caruso had a very good series overall and he was the Thunder's second leading scorer (14.9 ppg) versus the Spurs, but in this game he had 12 points on 3-14 field goal shooting. The Thunder briefly led by three in the third quarter, but the Spurs were on top for the final 19:33 of the game.
Johnson's layup with 8:00 left in the fourth quarter put the Spurs up 97-86, and that play might have been the breaking point for many teams, but the Thunder answered with a Hartenstein three point play plus a Gilgeous-Alexander turnaround jumper to slash the lead to 97-91 at the 6:49 mark. Wembanyama committed his fifth foul on the Hartenstein score, and the Spurs replaced him with Luke Kornet during a timeout with 6:48 remaining. This seemed to be an opportunity for the Thunder to do some damage with Wembanyama on the bench. Hartenstein stole a pass on the Spurs' next possession and was poised to deliver a fast break dunk to put the Thunder within four points--but Kornet made perhaps the biggest play of the game, a spectacular chasedown blocked shot that the Spurs soon turned into a Castle jump shot to make the score 99-91. The Spurs led by at least six points the rest of the way.
Wembanyama, who proudly wears his emotions on his sleeve, cried after the final buzzer sounded. Good for him for showing how much winning means to him. He appears to have the right mix of confidence, team-oriented mindset, and passion for the game to be an all-time great--but that is something that must be proven with sustained excellence.
You may recall Cleveland coach Kenny Atkinson claiming that "analytically" his team won two of the first three games of a series in which his squad was swept, losing by double digit margins in each game; after the fourth loss, Atkinson's main man James Harden insisted that the Cavaliers are a better team than the New York Knicks. In the wake of those delusional and self-serving remarks, it was refreshing to hear Gilgeous-Alexander's take on his team's game seven loss: "They were just the better team tonight from start to finish." A big part of being a champion is understanding how to lose, and how to learn from losses--and delusion is not part of that equation.
This was an entertaining and well played series overall, even though the last five games were each decided by double digit margins. Rivalries make sports special--some of my favorite basketball memories involve the annual showdowns between the Philadelphia 76ers and Boston Celtics in the early 1980s as Julius Erving and Larry Bird battled for individual and team supremacy--so let's hope that we are fortunate enough to see a few more Spurs-Thunder playoff matchups featuring Wembanyama and Gilgeous-Alexander as the headliners. This was the first time that two top top three MVP finishers faced off in the Conference Finals since Erving and Bird squared off in 1981 and 1982.
Labels: Chet Holmgren, Oklahoma City Thunder, San Antonio Spurs, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Stephon Castle, Victor Wembanyama
posted by David Friedman @ 2:20 AM
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander Becomes the Fifth Guard to Win Consecutive NBA Regular Season MVPs
In 2025, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander won the regular season MVP, Magic Johnson Western Conference Finals MVP, and Bill Russell NBA Finals MVP; now, he is one step closer to repeating that individual "three-peat" this season after capturing the 2026 NBA regular season MVP. Gilgeous-Alexander received 83 out of 100 first place votes and 939 total points from an international media panel, with three-time regular season MVP Nikola Jokic (2021, 2022, and 2024) finishing a distant second with 10 first place votes and 634 total points, and 2026 Defensive Player of the Year Victor Wembanyama rounding out the top three (five first place votes, 539 total points).
Gilgeous-Alexander joins Magic Johnson (1989-90), Michael Jordan (1991-92), Steve Nash (2005-06), and Stephen Curry (2015-16) as the only guards to win back to back NBA regular season MVPs. He is the 15th player in pro basketball history to win consecutive regular season MVPs, joining a list that includes (in addition to the guards listed above) Bill Russell (1961-63 NBA), Wilt Chamberlain (1966-68 NBA), Kareem
Abdul-Jabbar (1971-72, 1976-77 NBA), Julius Erving (1974-76 ABA), Moses Malone (1982-83 NBA), Larry Bird (1984-86 NBA), Tim Duncan (2002-03 NBA), LeBron James (2009-10, 2012-13 NBA), Giannis Antetokounmpo (2019-20 NBA), and Nikola Jokic (2021-22).
I analyzed the 2026 regular season MVP race in my 2025-26 NBA Playoff Predictions article, concluding, "This is the fourth straight season that Shai Gilgeous-Alexander has
performed at an MVP level, and in the previous three seasons he finished
fifth, second, and first in the balloting. He averaged at least 30.1
ppg and at least 5.5 apg while shooting at least .510 from the field in
each of those four seasons. Gilgeous-Alexander combines the elite
midrange shooting touch of George Gervin
with the ability to slash to the hoop, draw fouls, and dish to open
teammates. He is also an excellent defensive player. There is nothing
negative to say about him, and no reason that he should not be selected
as MVP--except for the inconvenient fact that Jokic is even more
productive and efficient."
Two seasons ago, Jokic joined Wilt Chamberlain as the only players to rank in the top three in the league in scoring, rebounding, and assists in the same season while becoming the first center and third player overall to average a triple double for an entire season; this season, Jokic averaged 27.7 ppg (eighth in the league), 12.9 rpg (first in the league), and 10.7 apg (first in the league) with shooting splits of .569/.380/.831. Jokic has averaged at least 24.5 ppg, at least 10.8 rpg and at least 7.9
apg for six straight seasons while never shooting worse than .566 from
the field; no player in pro basketball history has matched each of those
thresholds for a six season span. It is difficult to rationally argue that any player in the league is more versatile and productive than Jokic, and it could be argued that he is as versatile and productive as any player in pro basketball history; the counterarguments would focus on defense (which--other than defensive rebounding--is not captured by the above statistics) and on the reality that the NBA currently (1) has diluted its talent by expanding to 30 teams and (2) is plagued by up to a third of the teams tanking, which results in distorted statistics for the teams that are not tanking (and, consequently, for the players on those teams).
Wembanyama averaged 25.0 ppg and 11.5 rpg (fourth in the league) while capturing his third straight shotblocking title (3.1 bpg). If he can stay healthy, he could rewrite the record book while transforming the view of a how a big man can or should play.
Gilgeous-Alexander's statistical profile is also remarkable. This season, he became the first guard to average at least 30 ppg while shooting at least .550 from the field; the closest Michael Jordan came to accomplishing this was when he posted five 30 ppg seasons during which he shot between .519 and .539 from the field, while George Gervin deserves an honorable mention for scoring 33.1 ppg on .528 field goal shooting en route to winning the 1980 scoring title. Gilgeous-Alexander, Chamberlain, and Jordan are the only players who averaged at least 30 ppg while shooting at least .500 from the field in four consecutive seasons. Gilgeous-Alexander broke Chamberlain's record for consecutive regular season games with at least 20 points (126), pushing the mark to 140 (and counting).
Gilgeous-Alexander, Jokic, and Wembanyama share at least one quality: they each genuinely seem to care more about team success than about individual numbers and accolades. Other players in the league would do well to aspire not so much to match the trio's gaudy statistics but rather the selfless way that they play.
Labels: Denver Nuggets, Nikola Jokic, Oklahoma City Thunder, San Antonio Spurs, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Victor Wembanyama
posted by David Friedman @ 3:22 PM
Oklahoma City Versus San Antonio Preview
Western Conference Finals
#1 Oklahoma City (64-18) vs. #2 San Antonio (62-20)
Season series: San Antonio, 4-1
San Antonio can win if…Victor Wembanyama dominates the paint at both ends of the court while the Spurs' backcourt troika of Stephon Castle, De'Aaron Fox, and Dylan Harper keeps pace with Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and the Thunder's deep rotation of perimeter players. The Spurs won the regular season series 4-1 by controlling the paint and by not letting the Thunder dominate the possession game; the Thunder typically thrive when they force a lot of turnovers while minimizing their own turnovers.
Wembanyama's debut playoff run has been very productive so far; he has averaged a team-high 20.3 ppg, a team-high 10.7 rpg, and a league-leading 4.1 bpg in 10 games. He missed game three in the first round versus Portland while he was in concussion protocol, and he ranks just fourth on the team in playoff mpg (28.8) as the Spurs do everything possible to keep him healthy and fresh.
Wembanyama averaged 19.8 ppg while leading the Spurs in rebounding (12.0 rpg) and blocked shots (4.2 bpg) as the Spurs eliminated the Minnesota Timberwolves 4-2 in the second round, ending the Timberwolves' bid to make a third straight appearance in the Western Conference Finals. Wembanyama had a slow offensive start to the series in San Antonio's 104-102 game one loss (11 points on 5-17 field goal shooting) but he also snared a game-high 15 rebounds and set an NBA single game playoff record with 12 blocked shots, surpassing the previous mark (10) held by three players (Mark Eaton, Hakeem Olajuwon, and Andrew Bynum) for a statistic that the NBA has tracked since the 1973-74 season (which means that the numbers for Bill Russell, Wilt Chamberlain, and a young Kareem Abdul-Jabbar are not known). The Spurs then won two straight games with Wembanyama leading the way, notching 19 points, a game-high 15 rebounds, and two blocked shots in San Antonio's 133-95 game two rout before exploding for 39 points, 15 rebounds, and five blocked shots in San Antonio's 115-108 game three victory. Wembanyama was ejected for elbowing Naz Reid in the head after playing less than 13 minutes in game four, and the Spurs lost 114-109. Wembanyama bounced back with 19 points, a game-high 17 rebounds, and a game-high three blocked shots in the Spurs' 126-97 game five win at home, and then he had 19 points, six rebounds, and a game-high three blocked shots as the Spurs closed out the series with a 139-109 rout on the road.
Castle ranks second on the team in playoff scoring (19.9 ppg), first in playoff assists (6.1 apg), and second in three point field goals made (22). Fox is third on the team in playoff scoring (18.8 ppg) and second in assists (5.8 apg). Harper is fourth on the team in playoff scoring (13.7 ppg) and third in rebounds (5.1 rpg). Their numbers are not overwhelming individually, but collectively they put a lot of pressure on opponents in multiple ways, and they make it difficult for opponents to load up on Wembanyama.
Oklahoma City will win because…the Thunder are more consistent and more efficient. The Spurs' regular season dominance of the Thunder should not be dismissed, and it could be argued that the Spurs are a better team now than they were even just a few months ago, but the Thunder have proven over the past two seasons that they are capable of rising to the occasion when it matters most.
The Thunder are the only team to sweep the first two rounds of the 2026 playoffs, and they are the first reigning NBA champion to sweep the first two rounds since the 2001 Lakers accomplished this during the second championship run of their 2000-02 "three-peat."
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander did not perform up to his high standards during the Thunder's 4-0 second round sweep of the L.A. Lakers, but he still led both teams in scoring (24.5 ppg) while pacing the Thunder in assists (6.0 apg). Overall, Gilgeous-Alexander is leading the Thunder in playoff scoring (29.1 ppg) and assists (7.1 apg) with shooting splits of .514/.323/.855. He is the 2026 playoff leader in two point field goals made per game and free throws made per game.
The Thunder have rolled even though their second best player, 2025 All-Star Jalen Williams, has only played in two of their eight playoff games, averaging 20.5 ppg on .615 field goal shooting. Williams has been out of action with a grade 1 left hamstring strain since suffering the injury on April 22 in the Thunder's 120-107 game two win versus Phoenix in the first round.
Willaims' absence has given Ajay Mitchell a chance to shine. Mitchell is averaging 18.8 ppg in eight playoff games with six starts after averaging 13.6 ppg in 57 regular season games with 16 starts.
Chet Holmgren (18.6 ppg, team-high 9.1 rpg, team-high 1.8 bpg) and Isaish Hartenstein (9.9 ppg, 8.8 rpg, team-high .756 FG%) control the paint at both ends of the court. There is no love lost between Wembanyama and Holmgren, so that will be a fun--and critical--matchup to watch.
Alex Caruso (7.6 ppg, 1.5 spg), Cason Wallace (7.3 ppg, team-high 1.8 spg), Philadelphia cast-off Jared McCain (7.3 ppg), and Isaiah Joe (6.6 ppg) anchor a deep, versatile bench.
Other things to consider: In The Glitch in "The Process" is a Feature, not a Bug, I discussed how the Thunder assembled their championship-winning roster:
Here is how the Thunder acquired their top nine players in regular season mpg from their 2025 championship season:
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander--the NBA's reigning regular season MVP, Magic Johnson Western Conference Finals MVP, and Bill Russell NBA Finals MVP--is
the Thunder's franchise player. The Thunder obtained Gilgeous-Alexander
and the draft pick that became All-Star Jalen Williams (their second
best player) by trading Paul George to the L.A. Clippers. Morey's 76ers
later signed Paul George after the Clippers wisely decided to not give
George a maximum contract extension.
The Thunder used a first round draft pick obtained by tanking to select Chet Holmgren.
Lu
Dort was not drafted, Isaiah Hartenstein was a free agent, Cason
Wallace was acquired in a trade, Aaron Wiggins was a second round draft
pick, Isaiah Joe was a free agent who had been waived by the 76ers, and
Alex Caruso was acquired in a trade that sent Josh Giddey from the
Thunder to the Chicago Bulls. The Thunder had selected Giddey with a
first round pick obtained by tanking, but after they determined that
Giddey was not the best fit with the rest of their roster they shrewdly
shipped him out to obtain a proven championship-winning veteran who is a
great leader and great defensive player.
Thunder general manager
Sam Presti cut his NBA teeth with the San Antonio Spurs before the
Thunder hired him. Knicks coach Mike Brown is also a product of the
Spurs' system. I interviewed
Brown during his first stint with the Cleveland Cavaliers, and he told
me that he takes after his mentor Gregg Popovich in terms of not being a
big numbers guy. When I asked Brown what statistics he values, he
mentioned defensive field goal percentage and points allowed but not any
of the "advanced basketball statistics" that are so in vogue in some
quarters and that are so heavily valued by people like Hinkie and Morey.
During their 2025 championship season, the Thunder ranked first in
defensive field goal percentage and third in points allowed; they ranked
first and second respectively in those categories this season.
As I noted in my 2025 Western Conference Finals Preview, tanking is not why the Thunder are winning, and the Thunder's success should not be considered a justification of tanking "because tanking cheats paying fans while demeaning and
diminishing the value of competition. The NBA was much better when load management and tanking did not exist."
The Spurs' roster construction seems less pure. From the outside looking in, it appears that the Spurs tanked to get Wembanyama and then were either very poorly coached during Wembanyama's first season or else tanked again to obtain Castle's draft rights. It is interesting that, in contrast to several teams that admit to tanking (the 76ers being the most obvious example), then-Spurs' coach Gregg Popovich explicitly denied that the Spurs were losing on purpose or would ever lose on purpose. Regardless of what the Spurs did or did not do to obtain Wembanyama, they are so fortunate that Wembanyama is 100% committed to playing selfless, winning basketball as opposed to focusing on individual glory. Wembanyama looks like a player who is capable of leading a team to a championship--but the Thunder have already won a championship with Gilgeous-Alexander leading a talented, deep, and selfless roster. The Spurs more than had the measure of the Thunder during the regular season, but playoff basketball is contested at a different intensity level than regular season basketball. It would not be shocking if the Spurs win this series, but I think that they are still at least a year away from winning the Western Conference Finals.
Oklahoma City will defeat San Antonio in six games.
Labels: Ajay Mitchell, Chet Holmgren, De'Aaron Fox, Dylan Harper, Jalen Williams, Oklahoma City Thunder, San Antonio Spurs, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Stephon Castle, Victor Wembanyama
posted by David Friedman @ 8:21 AM
The Glitch in "The Process" is a Feature, not a Bug
The New York Knicks swept the Philadelphia 76ers 4-0 to reach the Eastern Conference Finals for the second consecutive season. The last time the Knicks made it to the Eastern Conference Finals two years in a row was 1999-2000, and in my Eastern Conference Finals Preview I will analyze the Knicks in depth, but this article will focus on the 76ers. Before the playoffs began, some commentators dubbed the 76ers as a "team nobody wants to face," a designation often attached to teams that subsequently lose ignominiously in the playoffs.
The 76ers have been "next year's champion" for many years. How did they become a highly touted team that annually falls well short of championship expectations? The 76ers tanked from 2013 to 2016, winning less than 20 games in each of those three seasons. Sam Hinkie, the 76ers' general manager during those awful seasons, arrogantly called the intentional losing "The Process." Author Yaron Weitzman wrote a book about "The Process" called "Tanking to the Top," but
the 76ers did nothing of the sort: two years before Hinkie began "The
Process," the 76ers lost in the second round of the 2012 playoffs--and
the 76ers have not advanced beyond the second round of the playoffs
since that time. The 76ers are the most prominent example of a proven
fact: tanking does not work.
The 76ers never reached the playoffs under Hinkie, who was finally replaced by Bryan Colangelo in 2016. Colangelo ended the tanking, and the 76ers went 28-54 in his first season before jumping to 52-30 in his second season. Colangelo resigned after that season, and he was replaced by Elton Brand. The 76ers went 51-31 and 43-30 in two years under Brand before the 76ers replaced him with Daryl Morey, who previously enjoyed an extended run in Houston despite not producing exceptional results. Like Hinkie, Morey relies heavily on "advanced basketball statistics," which results in Morey believing bizarre things such as publicly declaring that James Harden is a better scorer than Michael Jordan.
Morey doubled down on Hinkie's faith in Joel Embiid--who dubbed himself "The Process" in honor of Hinkie--by signing the oft-injured Embiid to a three year maximum contract extension in October 2024. There are 14 NBA players being paid at least $50 million this season. Only four of them have not won an NBA title, and two of those four play for the 76ers. Joel Embiid is the NBA's third highest paid player ($55.2 million), and Paul George is the NBA's 13th highest paid player ($51.67 million). Morey's decisions have resulted in the 76ers paying over $100 million this season to two players who have failed to lead the team past the second round. One of the few positive things that can be said about Morey's reign of error in Philadelphia is that he drafted Tyrese Maxey in 2020. Maxey has become the 76ers' best and most consistent player, but it is not clear if Maxey can be the number one option on a team that makes an extended playoff run.
It is fascinating to contrast the dysfunctional 76ers with the Oklahoma City Thunder, the reigning NBA champions and the league's model franchise. I previously discussed in brief how the Thunder built their roster through wise personnel moves and not by tanking (even though it is true that they tanked for a couple seasons), but with the Thunder rolling while the 76ers are reeling it is worth examining in detail how the Thunder put together their deep roster.
Here is how the Thunder acquired their top nine players in regular season mpg from their 2025 championship season:
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander--the NBA's reigning regular season MVP, Magic Johnson Western Conference Finals MVP, and Bill Russell NBA Finals MVP--is the Thunder's franchise player. The Thunder obtained Gilgeous-Alexander and the draft pick that became All-Star Jalen Williams (their second best player) by trading Paul George to the L.A. Clippers. Morey's 76ers later signed Paul George after the Clippers wisely decided to not give George a maximum contract extension.
The Thunder used a first round draft pick obtained by tanking to select Chet Holmgren.
Lu Dort was not drafted, Isaiah Hartenstein was a free agent, Cason Wallace was acquired in a trade, Aaron Wiggins was a second round draft pick, Isaiah Joe was a free agent who had been waived by the 76ers, and Alex Caruso was acquired in a trade that sent Josh Giddey from the Thunder to the Chicago Bulls. The Thunder had selected Giddey with a first round pick obtained by tanking, but after they determined that Giddey was not the best fit with the rest of their roster they shrewdly shipped him out to obtain a proven championship-winning veteran who is a great leader and great defensive player.
Thunder general manager Sam Presti cut his NBA teeth with the San Antonio Spurs before the Thunder hired him. Knicks coach Mike Brown is also a product of the Spurs' system. I interviewed Brown during his first stint with the Cleveland Cavaliers, and he told me that he takes after his mentor Gregg Popovich in terms of not being a big numbers guy. When I asked Brown what statistics he values, he mentioned defensive field goal percentage and points allowed but not any of the "advanced basketball statistics" that are so in vogue in some quarters and that are so heavily valued by people like Hinkie and Morey. During their 2025 championship season, the Thunder ranked first in defensive field goal percentage and third in points allowed; they ranked first and second respectively in those categories this season.
Numbers matter, but anyone who thinks that the numbers point to tanking as an effective strategy does not understand numbers, basketball, strategy, or team building. It is not an accident that the Thunder are winning while the 76ers are sputtering; those disparate outcomes result from one team consistently making sound strategic decisions and the other team consistently making unsound strategic decisions. It is quite telling that the Thunder began their current rise by getting rid of Paul George, a player who Morey's 76ers acquired (and then overpaid) because they believe that he can be a cornerstone player on a championship team.
Labels: Chet Holmgren, Daryl Morey, Jalen Williams, Joel Embiid, New York Knicks, Oklahoma City Thunder, Paul George, Philadelphia 76ers, Sam Hinkie, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Tyrese Maxey
posted by David Friedman @ 10:59 PM
Thoughts About the Second Round: "Playoff Harden," Red Hot Knicks, Redick's Rhetoric, and San Antonio's Youth Versus Minnesota's Experience
The James Harden playoff era with the Cleveland Cavaliers began 2-0 but has taken a predictably downhill trajectory after that auspicious start: Harden amassed 38 turnovers and 35 field goals made in his next seven
playoff
game while shooting .385 from the field, and the Cavaliers are 2-5 in those games. In his last four playoff games, Harden has shot 17-51 (.333) from the field while committing 17 turnovers, and the
Cavaliers are 1-3 in those games, with the one win happening mainly
because Jarrett Allen had a double double in the third quarter versus a
shorthanded Toronto team.
The Detroit Pistons lead the Cavaliers 2-0 in their second round series after opening game two with a 14-5 run before winning, 107-97. The second game looked much like the first game, a 111-101 Pistons victory. Harden had 22 points on 6-15 field goal shooting with seven assists and seven turnovers in the first game before fully activating "Playoff Harden" mode in game two: 10 points on 3-13 field goal shooting, three assists, and four turnovers--a "concert tour" field goal percentage combined with his trademark "Harden" (a game in which a player--usually Harden, hence the name--has more turnovers than field goals made).
It is baffling that the Cavaliers' front office believed that Harden would be the missing piece for a championship run, and it is bizarre to hear his coach and teammates publicly praise his basketball IQ, his playoff experience, and his leadership. High basketball IQ players do not consistently have more turnovers than field goals made in the most important games, experience means nothing if the experience consists of choking while losing, and leadership is supposed to mean helping a group or a team complete a mission, not being a major reason that a group or a team fails to complete a mission.
I am trying to picture how Harden exercises leadership by sharing his high basketball IQ playoff experiences in the Cavaliers' locker room: does he wax poetic about when he had seven points on 2-8 field goal shooting in last year's 120-101 elimination game loss to the Denver Nuggets, or does he speak in general about shooting .399 from the field while averaging 5.9 tpg as his teams went 2-9 in his first 11 elimination games after he fled Oklahoma City?
When it matters most, you can count on Harden to consistently do four things: 1) shoot less often than usual (which throws off the rhythm of his team), 2) shoot a lousy percentage from the field, 3) turn the ball over at a high rate, and 4) be slow to get back on defense after turning the ball over.
Harden's awful play should not completely distract from how the Pistons are manhandling 2025 NBA Defensive Player of the Year Evan Mobley, who had one more rebound than a dead man in game two. The Cavaliers are a low energy team, and it is safe to say that Harden's careless, desultory play is not energizing any of his teammates. A great player cannot control how his teammates play, but a great player typically has an impact that makes his team better, particularly in the games that matter most. Harden is labeled as a great player, but his impact on team success does not match that label.
The series shifts to Cleveland for the next two games. It took the Pistons seven games to eliminate the Orlando Magic in the first round, so it would not be surprising if the Cavaliers win a game or even two at home, but it will be very surprising if the Cavaliers win four of the next five games to advance to the Eastern Conference Finals. After the Cavaliers acquired Harden in exchange for Darius Garland, I declared, "I
can write the template for the Cavaliers' 2026 elimination game loss
now, and after the game I can fill in the blanks around the words 'James
Harden disappeared' and 'James Harden scored just xxx second half
points.'" That article is in draft mode now, and I expect to post it sooner rather than later.
In the Eastern Conference's other second round series, the New York Knicks are on an impressive run since falling behind 2-1 to the Atlanta Hawks in the first round. The Knicks lead the Philadelphia 76ers 2-0 after humiliating the 76ers 137-98 in the series opener before surviving game two, 108-102. After seeing the Knicks drive by Joel Embiid as if he were a traffic cone in game one, the Boston Celtics should be sick to their stomachs about jacking up 49 three pointers in their 109-100 game seven loss to the 76ers; if they had attacked Embiid to wear him out and get him in foul trouble then it is likely that they would have earned the right to battle the Knicks in the second round. Embiid missed game two versus the Knicks due to ankle and hip injuries, and he is listed as questionable for game three. He is still a force in the paint offensively when he wants to be, but sliding his feet on defense--or even staying upright--has been challenging for him. Embiid exploited the Celtics' inexperienced centers, but the Knicks have the size and strength to battle with him, so in some ways that 76ers look better without him--at least in this particular matchup.
Turning our attention to the Western Conference, J.J. Redick's postgame press conferences after losses are fascinating. According to Redick, his team's losses can primarily be attributed to not following the game plan. Put another way, if only his players were smart enough and disciplined enough to execute his brilliant game plans then the L.A. Lakers would never lose. When asked about specific things he could tell his players, Redick consistently says "I have already conveyed that message to them" or words to that effect. In other words, "I told them everything that they need to know to be successful, so if they fail then that is their fault, not mine."
As a player, Redick never won a championship in college or in the NBA. It is interesting to listen to press conferences of championship coaches on the rare occasions when their teams lose; they tend to give credit to the opposing team, and they tend to accept blame for things that they could have done better. Bill Belichick has won more Super Bowls than any coach--and his Super Bowl-winning defensive game plan from Super Bowl XXV when he was the New York Giants' defensive coordinator is in the Pro Football Hall of Fame--but when his teams lost he would often say that he has to coach better and the players have to play better. When was the last time that Redick admitted that he needs to coach better?
Last year, Redick's Lakers lost 4-1 in the first round to the Minnesota Timberwolves, after which I discussed the biggest mismatch in the series:
The Lakers' late collapses versus the Timberwolves can be explained
at least partially by coaching. It is important that a coach understand
matchups, time and score, the rhythm of the game, and the fatigue level
of his players. The Lakers had the two best individual players in this
series--four-time NBA champion LeBron James, and Luka Doncic, who led the Dallas Mavericks to the NBA Finals last year--but
the Timberwolves exploited their matchup advantages in the paint while
keeping James and Doncic reasonably under control without creating
openings for the Lakers' supporting cast to make an impact.
The
Timberwolves enjoyed a significant coaching advantage: Chris Finch
versus J.J. Redick may have been the biggest mismatch in this series.
Redick established multiple records in his playoff coaching debut: no
coach had ever played the same five players for every minute of the
second half of a playoff game until Redick did that in the game four
loss, and no Lakers team had ever lost in the first round of the
playoffs while seeded at least third. Redick set an unofficial record
for the fewest times that a coach ever took responsibility for his
team's loss.
Finch led the Timberwolves to the Western Conference
Finals last year, and he is now the first coach in franchise history to
advance past the first round in back to back seasons. In contrast,
Redick is a first year NBA coach with no prior coaching experience
beyond the youth level, and his NBA playoff coaching resume now shows a
1-4 record while coaching the third seeded team versus the sixth seeded
team. When a reporter asked Redick a reasonable question about his
substitution patterns, Redick arrogantly scoffed, "Weird assumption"
before storming out of the press conference. Redick's combination of
arrogance with lack of knowledge is not likely to lead to sustained
success.
This year, the shorthanded Lakers beat the shorthanded, dysfunctional Houston Rockets 4-2 in the first round to give Redick his first playoff series win as a coach, but now they are halfway toward being swept in the second round. The Thunder are without the services of their second best player, Jalen Williams (grade 1 left hamstring strain), but they posted the NBA's best regular season despite him missing most of the season, and it is evident that they don't need him to beat the Lakers, who are missing their best player as Luka Doncic recovers from a left hamstring injury. The Thunder keep rolling along because they minimize distractions/drama while collectively playing hard and smart at both ends of the court.
After the Thunder dispatch the Lakers, they will face the winner of the San Antonio-Minnesota series. The Minnesota Timberwolves may be the NBA's version of Rasputin--any time you count them out, they rise to the occasion. Maybe we should not be surprised that a team that has reached the Western Conference Finals each of the past two years is resilient and tough. The Thunder lost Donte DiVincenzo to a season-ending torn right Achilles, Ayo Dosunmu is out with calf and heel injuries, and Anthony Edwards is hobbling around with a left knee hyperextension and bone bruise, but the Timberwolves took out the Denver Nuggets in six games in the first round before beating the Spurs 104-102 in game one to steal homecourt advantage. The Spurs bounced back to win game two 133-95 but now must play the next two games in Minnesota. The Timberwolves are a veteran team with a lot of positive recent playoff experience, while the Spurs' key rotation players have very little playoff experience. The Spurs need to get a split on the road to regain homecourt advantage, and two wins would put them in the driver's seat heading back home for game five. Game three will tell us a lot about how long this series will last, because this is the Spurs' first real postseason challenge after winning 4-1 in the first round versus the outmatched Portland Trail Blazers. I picked the Spurs to beat the Timberwolves in six games, and if the teams split the next two games then we are probably on track for that result, because I expect the shorthanded Timberwolves to wear down as this series progresses.
Labels: Cleveland Cavaliers, Detroit Pistons, J.J. Redick, James Harden, L.A. Lakers, Minnesota Timberwolves, New York Knicks, Oklahoma City Thunder, Philadelphia 76ers, San Antonio Spurs
posted by David Friedman @ 9:31 AM
Oklahoma City Versus L.A. Lakers Preview
Western Conference Second Round
#1 Oklahoma City (64-18) vs. #4 L.A. Lakers (53-29)
Season series: Oklahoma City, 4-0
L.A. can win if…the Lakers win the possession game by cutting down on turnovers and by outrebounding the Thunder. The Lakers rank 15th out of the 16 playoff teams in turnovers committed, while the Thunder rank first, and the Thunder also rank first in turnover differential; the Thunder excel at both taking the ball away on defense (ranking third in the playoffs in steals per game) and protecting the ball on offense, while the Lakers do not protect the ball well and are mediocre at best at taking the ball away (ranking ninth in steals per game). The Thunder rank fifth in the playoffs in rebounding differential (3.8), while the Lakers rank eighth (0.0). If the Lakers do not significantly improve in the possession game then they will have to shoot an extraordinarily high percentage from the field or make a lot of free throws just to keep the games close.
The Lakers were correctly considered underdogs in the first round versus the fifth seeded Houston Rockets because injuries kept Luka Doncic out for the entire series (grade 2 left hamstring strain) and sidelined Austin Reaves until game five (grade 2 oblique strain)--but that was before Kevin Durant was a late scratch for game one with a right knee contusion. Durant, who averaged 26.0 ppg on .520 field goal shooting in 78 regular season games, played in just one game as the Lakers eliminated the Rockets in six games; he scored 23 points on 7-12 field goal shooting in game two, which the Lakers won, 101-94, as the other Rockets scored 71 points on 29-77 (.377) field goal shooting. Durant sprained his ankle during game two and did not play again in the series, so it is not surprising that the Rockets rank 15th in playoff scoring (98.7 ppg), ahead of only the Orlando Magic--who should be called the -rland- Magic (i.e., they have no "O") after averaging 98.3 ppg, including scoring just 19 points in the second half of their 93-79 game six loss to the Detroit Pistons while missing 27 of their final 28 field goal attempts. Only Orlando's record-setting offensive futility kept the Rockets from having the least productive offense in the 2026 NBA playoffs.
While it is fair to say to some extent that the bricklaying Rockets were the architects of their own demise, the Lakers deserve some credit, too, starting with LeBron James. It is not hyperbole to say that James is the greatest 41 year old NBA player ever. He averaged 20.9 ppg, 7.2 apg, and 6.1 rpg during the regular season, and his only concession to age is that he missed 22 games. James improved those numbers to 23.2 ppg, 8.3 apg, and 7.2 rpg versus the Rockets, leading the Lakers in scoring and assists while ranking second in rebounding.
Reaves averaged 18.5 ppg and 4.0 apg in two games, but he shot just .367 from the field. Rui Hachimura increased his scoring from 11.5 ppg in the regular season to 15.8 ppg versus the Rockets, and he led the Lakers with 17 three point field goals while shooting .586 from beyond the arc. Deandre Ayton grumbled about his role during the season, averaging 12.5 ppg and a team-high 8.0 rpg, and he posted similar numbers versus the Rockets (11.8 ppg, team-high 10.8 rpg). Marcus Smart (14.7 ppg, 13 three point field goals made, .486 3FG%) was a key contributor at both ends of the court versus the Rockets after scoring just 9.3 ppg with a .331 3FG% during the regular season.
Oklahoma City will win because...Shai Gilgeous-Alexander will be the best player in the series and because the Thunder's depth and defensive tenacity will overwhelm the Lakers.
Gilgeous-Alexander averaged 33.8 ppg, 8.0 apg, and 3.8 rpg with shooting splits of .551/.313/.898 during the first round as the Thunder swept the Phoenix Suns. Chet Holmgren averaged 17.3 ppg, a team-high 8.5 rpg, and a team-high 2.0 bpg versus the Suns. Isaiah Hartenstein provided power in the paint with 11.0 ppg, 8.3 rpg, 1.0 bpg, and a team-high .714 FG%. Jalen Williams averaged 20.5 ppg, 5.0 apg, and 4.0 rpg in two games versus the Suns but will miss at least the start of this series due to a grade 1 left hamstring strain. Ajay Mitchell picked up some of the scoring slack by averaging 15.0 ppg, but he shot just .364 from the field.
The Thunder are the highest scoring team in the playoffs (122.8 ppg), and their 17.3 ppg scoring differential is second behind the Knicks (17.5 ppg), whose numbers are a bit distorted by their historic 140-89 game six rout of the Atlanta Hawks. The Thunder also rank second in the playoffs behind the Knicks in field goal percentage (.487).
Neither the offense that the Lakers ran against the Rockets nor the defense that they played against the Rockets will be nearly good enough to contend with the Thunder.
Other things to consider: The Thunder have been the class of the NBA for the past two years, posting the best regular season record in back to back seasons and capturing the NBA title last season. Although the Thunder were pushed to seven games in two of their four playoff series last year, they did not falter under pressure and became the second youngest team to win an NBA title.
Gilgeous-Alexander swept the MVP awards last season (regular season, Western Conference Finals, NBA Finals), and he could very well match that feat this season.
In contrast, this is just the second time that the Lakers advanced past the first round since 2020, when they won the "bubble title." The Lakers spent most of this season relying on their high octane offense fueled by the scoring/playmaking prowess of Doncic, Reaves, and James--who for the first time in his career willingly accepted not just a secondary role but a tertiary role. Without Doncic and with Reaves limited, the Lakers relied on James to run the offense; the Lakers fell from 116.3 ppg on a league-leading .502 field goal percentage in the regular season to 101.2 ppg on .474 field goal shooting versus the Durant-less and offensively challenged Rockets, but the Thunder both score and defend much better than the Rockets. If Doncic were available and at full strength, maybe the Lakers could steal a game or two, but this version of the Lakers cannot keep pace with the Thunder, even if Jalen Williams does not play.
Oklahoma City will defeat L.A. in four games.
Labels: Austin Reaves, Chet Holmgren, Jalen Williams, L.A. Lakers, LeBron James, Luka Doncic, Oklahoma City Thunder, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander
posted by David Friedman @ 12:39 AM
Observations About the Opening Weekend of the 2026 NBA Playoffs
The eight series opening games from the first round of the 2026 NBA playoffs are in the books. Six games went as I expected, with the exceptions being Houston falling apart versus the L.A. Lakers after Kevin Durant did not play because of a bruised knee and Detroit losing meekly versus Orlando. It should be noted that even though it is often said that the first game of a playoff series is "a feel out game," the reality is that game one winners won the series 77.1% of the time since the NBA went to the current 16 team playoff format in the 1983-84 season. Last year, game one winners won 12 out of 15 playoff series, including all eight first round series.
Here are my observations about each game, and my thoughts about each series.
The 2026 NBA playoffs kicked off on Saturday with the Cleveland Cavaliers taming the Toronto Raptors, 126-113. The Cavaliers did not trail in the second half, and led 100-76 with 11:47 remaining in the fourth quarter. Both teams shot well from the field--Cleveland shot .543, Toronto shot .521--but the Cavaliers had 10 more field goal attempts because they won the rebounding battle 33-27 and because they had fewer turnovers. Donovan Mitchell scored a game-high 32 points on 11-20 field goal shooting; he has scored at least 30 points in an NBA-record nine consecutive series openers.
Max Strus added 24 points off of the bench on 8-10 field goal shooting, and James Harden contributed 22 points plus a game-high 10 assists. RJ Barrett paced the Raptors with 24 points on 7-13 field goal shooting. Mitchell scored 11 third quarter points as the Cavaliers outscored the Raptors 36-22 to blow open a game that had been close (61-54 Cleveland lead) at halftime. The final numbers are skewed a bit by fourth quarter garbage time--the Cavaliers were outrebounded 7-4 in the final stanza and they committed six of their 15 turnovers in the final 12 minutes--but the big picture view is that the Cavaliers are clearly the superior team, so we will not see Harden's annual playoff disappearing act until the second round.
In Saturday's second game, Denver's Nikola Jokic-Jamal Murray duo overwhelmed the Minnesota Timberwolves in a 116-105 win. Murray made all 16 of his free throws and scored a game-high 30 points despite shooting just 7-22 from the field. He also had seven assists and five rebounds. Jokic authored his 22nd career playoff triple double (25 points, game-high 13 rebounds, game-high 11 assists). He ranks third in career playoff triple doubles behind Magic Johnson (30) and LeBron James (28). Russell Westbrook (12) and Jason Kidd (11) round out the top five. At times, the Timberwolves seemed more focused on acting tough--by committing hard fouls and engaging in extra physical contact after the play--than playing tough, but the Nuggets stayed above the fray for the most part. Anthony Edwards led the Timberwolves with 22 points while also contributing nine rebounds and a team-high seven assists, but he shot just 7-19 from the field. These teams have been evenly matched in recent years, but the Timberwolves took command early with a 27-15 lead late in the first quarter. The Nuggets fought back to a 62-62 halftime tie before outscoring the Timberwolves 29-17 in the decisive third quarter. Jokic (12 points) and Murray (10 points) outscored the Timberwolves in the third quarter. Both teams showed that they are capable of making big runs, so this figures to be a long series.
Next, the New York Knicks grounded the young Atlanta Hawks, 113-102. Jalen Brunson scored a game-high 28 points on 9-22 field goal shooting, and he also had a team-high seven assists. Karl-Anthony Towns scored 25 points, grabbed eight rebounds, passed for four assists, blocked three shots, and committed a game-high tying five turnovers. C.J. McCollum led the Hawks with 26 points but he had just one assist while matching Towns for game-high "honors" with five turnovers. Jalen Johnson had 23 points and seven rebounds in his first playoff game as a starter after being a lightly used reserve in his first six playoff games. In the first half, Brunson (22 points) and McCollum (17 points) had a backcourt scoring duel, with the Knicks leading 57-55 at intermission. Towns dominated in the second half with 19 points as the Knicks outscored the Hawks 56-47 in the final 24 minutes. The Hawks vastly improved by getting rid of Trae Young, but they are not quite ready for prime time.
Saturday's final game provided the first surprise of the weekend: Kevin Durant was a late scratch because of a bruised knee that he suffered during practice. The Houston Rockets seemed baffled, lethargic, and offensively inept without Durant, shooting just 35-93 (.376) from the field in a 107-98 loss to the L.A. Lakers. The Lakers entered the series sans Luka Doncic and Austin Reaves, but they had some time before the playoffs began to adjust their rotation and roles accordingly.
The Rockets--who lost starting point guard Fred VanVleet to a knee injury before the season and then lost rebounding machine Steven Adams to an ankle injury after he played just 32 games this season--did not have much time to prepare for Durant's absence, but they still should have been able to perform better than they did, particularly on defense. The Lakers torched the Rockets with 40-66 (.606) field goal shooting, led by Luke Kennard's playoff career-high 27 points on 9-13 field goal shooting. The seemingly ageless LeBron James had 19 points, a game-high 13 assists (including a playoff career-high eight first quarter assists), and eight rebounds. Deandre Ayton added 19 points and a team-high 11 rebounds as all five Laker starters scored in double figures.
Alperun Segun led the Rockets with 19 points, but he shot just 6-19 from the field and was outplayed by Ayton. Houston's starters shot 26-75 (.347) from the field, including 9-28 (.321) from beyond the arc. The Rockets won the rebounding battle 44-35, including 21-3 on the offensive glass as they hustled to chase down their misses only to often miss again. Durant's status for game two is questionable, but with or without him the Rockets are capable of playing much better than they did in game one. Keep in mind that the Lakers have homecourt advantage in this series, which means that if the Rockets win game two then the Rockets are in control of the series even though the score would be tied 1-1; the Rockets would have an opportunity to take a 3-1 lead with home wins in games three and four.
In the first game on Sunday, the Boston Celtics destroyed the Philadelphia 76ers, 123-91. The Celtics led 33-18 after the first quarter and never looked back. Jaylen Brown scored a game-high 26 points on 11-21 field goal shooting, and Jayson Tatum had a brilliant all-around game: 25 points on 9-17 field goal shooting, game-high 11 rebounds, team-high seven assists. Tyrese Maxey led the 76ers with 21 points on 8-20 field goal shooting, and he passed for a game-high eight assists. Those numbers are solid--and better than the numbers posted by any of his teammates--but they are not quite enough for the number one option on a playoff team. Paul George was quiet (17 points, four rebounds, one assist) and VJ Edgecomb had just 13 points on 6-16 field goal shooting. The Celtics shot 45-90 (.500) from the field while holding the 76ers to 35-90 (.389) field goal shooting. I may have been generous in suggesting that the 76ers could avoid being swept.
The next game was even less competitive, as the defending NBA champion Oklahoma City Thunder eclipsed the defenseless Phoenix Suns, 119-84. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander shot just 5-18 from the field but he went 15-17 from the free throw line to accumulate a game-high 25 points in just 29 minutes. He also had a game-high seven assists plus four rebounds and two blocked shots. Jalen Williams added 22 points, seven rebounds, and six assists. Devin Booker led the Suns with 23 points on 8-17 field goal shooting, but Dillon Brooks shot just 6-22 from the field for 18 points, and Jalen Green scored 17 points on 6-16 field goal shooting. The Thunder led by 39 at one point, and this game was a "name your score" contest: the Thunder could have won by 50 or 60 if they wanted to do that, but a 35 point margin of victory with each starter playing less than 30 minutes was more than sufficient.
Sunday's third game was a stunner, as the inconsistent and offensively challenged Orlando Magic--who shot just 33-81 (.407) from the field in a 109-97 Play-In Tournament game loss to the Philadelphia 76ers last week--never trailed versus the Detroit Pistons en route to a 112-101 win. The 45-37 Magic shot a respectable 44-90 (.489) from the field while holding the East-leading 60-22 Pistons to 31-77 (.403) field goal shooting. Paolo Banchero scored a team-high 23 points, grabbed a game-high nine rebounds, and dished for four assists, including some very slick passes out of double teams/traps. The other four Magic starters each scored between 16 and 19 points. Cade Cunningham poured in a game-high 39 points on 13-27 field goal shooting, but his inefficient start--14 first half points on 5-12 field goal shooting--helped the Magic to build a 55-51 halftime lead.
This was Detroit's 11th straight playoff game loss at home; the Pistons have not won a home playoff game since 2008. Is this the curse of Rodney Stuckey? I say that with tongue planted firmly in cheek, but the reality is that the Pistons have not been the same since Joe Dumars handed the keys to Stuckey. This is a new, young Pistons team that is years removed from the Stuckey fiasco, but the Pistons better hope that game one was simply a matter of rust and not a symptom of a deeper issue. The Pistons pride themselves on defense and physicality, but the Magic strolled into Detroit and took the Pistons' lunch money like a schoolyard bully.
The Sunday quadrupleheader concluded with Victor Wembanyama's much anticipated playoff debut, and he did not disappoint a San Antonio sellout crowd of 19,372 that included Hall of Famers David Robinson and Tim Duncan. The San Antonio Spurs defeated the Portland Trail Blazers 111-98 as Wembanyama scored a game-high 35 points on 13-21 field goal shooting to break Duncan's team record for most points scored in a playoff game debut (32). Wembanyama had five rebounds as the Spurs used a collective effort on the boards to outrebound the Trail Blazers, 45-38. No Spur had more than seven rebounds, but six Spurs had at least five rebounds. De'Aaron Fox and Stephon Castle contributed 17 points each, while Devin Vassell added 15 points. Deni Avdija had a team-high 30 points, a game-high 10 rebounds, and five assists in his playoff debut, but his Portland teammates did provide nearly enough help, scoring just 68 points on 27-70 (.386) field goal shooting. The Spurs looked like a championship contender, while the Trail Blazers looked outmatched.
Labels: Atlanta Hawks, Boston Celtics, Denver Nuggets, Detroit Pistons, Houston Rockets, L.A. Lakers, Minnesota Timberwolves, New York Knicks, Oklahoma City Thunder, Orlando Magic, Philadelphia 76ers, Phoenix Suns, San Antonio Spurs
posted by David Friedman @ 3:34 PM
2025-26 NBA Playoff Predictions
For the sixth consecutive season, the NBA used a Play-In Tournament
to determine the seventh and eighth seeds in each conference (the NBA
also had a Western Conference Play-In Game during the 2020 "bubble" in
Orlando). The Philadelphia 76ers and the Orlando Magic claimed the final
two Eastern Conference playoff spots, while the Portland Trail Blazers and the Phoenix Suns earned the final two Western Conference
playoff spots.
Prior to the 2026 Play-In Tournament, I picked Orlando, Charlotte, Phoenix, and the L.A. Clippers to emerge as qualifiers,
so my record for correctly picking the Play-In Tournament
qualifiers is 3-1 in 2021, 3-1 in 2022, 2-2 in 2023, 3-1 in 2024, 3-1 in 2025, and 2-2 in 2026.
Before
explaining my playoff predictions, here is a recap of some of the most
significant stories from the 2025-2026 NBA season.
After a dominating 2024-25 regular season that culminated in winning the NBA championship, the Oklahoma City Thunder started their title defense in commanding fashion, bursting out of the gates 8-0 before tying the all-time NBA record for best 25 game start (24-1, first accomplished by the 2015-16 Golden State Warriors). The Thunder had four losses in a six game stretch in December--including back to back defeats by the San Antonio Spurs--but closed the season strongly with 19 wins in a 20 game span before resting their key players in the final two games after wrapping up the number one overall seed in the playoffs. It would have been very difficult to match their historic 2025 standards--including a 68-14 regular season record (tied for sixth-seventh best all-time) with the best point differential in NBA history (12.87 ppg)--but the Thunder's 2025-26 season is very impressive: 64-18 record with a 11.15 ppg point differential (eighth best all-time).
The Thunder's season is even more impressive considering that each of their top four players in minutes played per game participated in 69 games or less, with 2025 All-Star Jalen Williams appearing in just 33 games. Only two Thunder players played in at least 70 games: Cason Wallace (77 games, 58 starts) and Isaiah Joe (71 games, nine starts).
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander--who won the 2025 regular season MVP, the 2025 Magic Johnson Western Conference Finals MVP, and the 2025 Bill Russell NBA Finals MVP--had another sensational all-around season, leading the team in scoring (31.1 ppg, second in the league) and assists (career-high 6.6 apg) while leading the league in free throws made per game (7.9) for the third straight season. His shooting splits (.553/.386/.879) include a career-high field goal percentage, and he continues to be an excellent defensive player.
The Thunder's strengths are Gilgeous-Alexander's all-around brilliance supported by tremendous depth, a collective commitment to playing strong team defense, and a collective unselfish attitude at both ends of the court. The Thunder are not quite as dominant in the possession game as they were in 2025 when they led the league in steals, turnovers forced, fewest steals allowed, and fewest turnovers committed, but they still ranked second, second, fourth, and second respectively in those categories. The Thunder are not a huge team, so they can be bothered by size and they are not an elite rebounding squad (ranking 12th in the league), but if they are even somewhat healthy it is difficult to picture them losing a seven game series.
Victor Wembanyama has been the centerpiece of a talented and deep San Antonio Spurs squad that went 4-1 versus the Thunder during the regular season. I did not foresee the Spurs being this good this fast, but in my 2025-26 Western Conference Preview I made it clear that the Spurs should be expected to make the playoffs (which was not a universally held belief prior to this season):
There are no more excuses for missing the playoffs. The Spurs have a
generational talent--the 2024 NBA Rookie of the Year Victor
Wembanyama--plus they have veteran former All-Star guard De'Aaron Fox,
and they also have 2025 NBA Rookie of the Year Stephon Castle. I am
skeptical about the long term prospects of teams that tanked--and I am
not convinced that the Spurs are on a championship track--but the Spurs
have too much talent to not at least qualify for the playoffs.
The Spurs ranked second in the league in rebounding, third in scoring, fourth in defensive field goal percentage, sixth in field goal percentage, and eighth in points allowed. Wembanyama's strong imprint is felt in all of those categories, as he led the team in scoring (career-high 25.0 ppg), rebounding (career-high 11.5 rpg, fourth in the league), and blocked shots (3.1 bpg, earning his third shot blocking title in three NBA seasons) while shooting a career-high .512 from the field. De'Aaron Fox earned his second career All-Star selection (his first as a Spur) while averaging 18.6 ppg and 6.2 apg. Stephon Castle improved his numbers across the board to 16.7 ppg, a team-high 7.4 apg (sixth in the league), 5.3 rpg, 1.1 spg, and .471 FG%.
The Spurs have all of the necessary ingredients for a championship team except for playoff experience. Harrison Barnes (9.9 ppg, 52 starts in 77 games) started for the 2015 NBA champion Golden State Warriors, but he is the Spurs' only rotation player who has significant postseason experience.
Switching to the Eastern Conference, the Detroit Pistons continued their remarkable resurgence under Coach J.B. Bickerstaff, climbing from 14 wins (under Monty Williams) in 2023-24 to 44 wins in Bickerstaff's first Detroit season to pacing the Eastern Conference with 60 wins this season. Cade Cunningham--who led the team in scoring (23.9 ppg) and assists (9.9 apg)--has emerged as an All-NBA Team caliber player during the past two seasons, and fourth year player Jalen Duren earned his first All-Star selection while averaging 19.5 ppg and 10.5 rpg (sixth in the league). Bickerstaff has transformed the Pistons into a physical team that is elite at both ends of the court, ranking third in the league in defensive field goal percentage, third in points allowed, third in field goal percentage, eighth in rebounding, and eighth in scoring.
This season was expected to be a so-called "gap year" for the Boston Celtics in the wake of Jayson Tatum's torn right Achilles suffered during the 2025 playoffs followed by the exodus of key contributors Kristaps Porzingis (19.5 ppg, 6.8 rpg, 1.5 bpg in the 2024-25 regular season), Jrue Holiday (11.1 ppg, 4.3 rpg, 3.9 apg in 2024-25), Al Horford (9.0 ppg, 6.2 rpg in 2024-25), and Luke Kornet (6.0 ppg, 5.3 rpg in 2024-25). The Celtics ranked eighth in the NBA in rebounding during the 2024-25 season; that standard seemed difficult to match sans Tatum, Porzingis, Horford, and Kornet, who ranked first, second, third, and fifth respectively on the team in rebounding--but the Celtics ranked third in rebounding this season. Tatum averaging 10.0 rpg during his 16 game return helped, but six other Celtics each averaged at least 4 rpg, with starting center Neemias Queta averaging 8.4 rpg and leading the squad in total rebounds (636). Jaylen Brown had a high volume season, leading the league in field goals made (736), field goals attempted (1543), and turnovers (259) while setting career highs in scoring (28.7 ppg), rebounding (6.9 rpg), and assists (5.1 apg) to earn his fourth straight All-Star selection (and fifth selection overall).
Brown's increased production provides a nice segue to the MVP conversation. Brown deserves to receive some top five MVP votes and should be a lock for the All-NBA Team, but he should not receive any first place MVP votes. The MVP race is rarely as wide open as media members suggest it to be; in most seasons, the five All-NBA First Team caliber players are a cut above everyone else, and often there are two or three of those players who separate themselves even further. This season, there are three players who should combine to receive all of the first place votes in MVP balloting: Nikola Jokic (the MVP winner in 2021, 2022, and 2024), Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (the 2025 MVP), and Victor Wembanyama.
It is unfortunate that
media-driven narratives appear to play a large role in the voting process, but that is the best explanation for how Allen Iverson, Steve Nash, Derrick Rose, and James Harden each won a regular season MVP (Nash won two!) while
Pantheon members Shaquille O'Neal and Kobe Bryant only won one regular season MVP each (but O'Neal earned three NBA Finals MVPs and Bryant earned two NBA Finals MVPs). I have
consistently insisted that the MVP should be selected based on skill set evaluations and not narratives or "advanced basketball statistics." The only exception is when there is a dominant player who does not have an all-around skill set but is nevertheless clearly the league's best player. Shaquille O'Neal is the quintessential example of such a player; he was a poor free throw shooter who was only intermittently interested in playing defense, but he was such a dominant scorer and rebounder that he was the NBA's best player during his prime.
There has been a
lot of groaning and grumbling about the NBA rule that stipulates that a
player must participate in at least 65 regular season games to be
eligible for most awards; to no small extent, this complaining is
emblematic of much of what is going wrong with our society: there is an
expectation--a sense of unwarranted entitlement, to be precise--that one
should be paid handsomely and receive award recognition despite putting
forth minimal effort. The NBA traditionally did not give awards to players who missed a substantial number of games, and there is nothing wrong with formalizing such rules in an era when so many people have lost respect for tradition and are looking for loopholes/excuses.
The NBA and NBPA jointly agreed to provide "extraordinary circumstances" exceptions for Luka Doncic and Cade Cunningham so that both players will be eligible for awards. Prior to that announcement, when people talked about Doncic and Cunningham regarding the 65 game rule, emphasis was placed on their late season injuries without pointing out that if both players had not missed so many games throughout the season then their late season injuries would not have rendered them ineligible for postseason awards. I'll say this slowly so everyone can follow: the w-h-o-l-e season counts--games in November, games in December, and games in every other month all matter, and players are being paid huge guaranteed salaries to actively participate in as many games as possible. Such participation used to be the norm, but now must be enforced--and the 65 game rule is part of the current Collective Bargaining Agreement, meaning that the players accepted this requirement.
Jokic played in 65 games this season, which is his lowest number since he played in 55 games and 59 games in his first two seasons. Last season, Jokic became the only player other than Wilt Chamberlain to rank in the top three in the NBA in scoring, rebounding, and assists in the same season while also becoming the first center and third player to average a triple double in a season--and this season Jokic was even better, leading the league in rebounding (12.9 rpg) and assists (career-high 10.7 apg) while ranking eighth in scoring (27.7 ppg) with shooting splits of .569/.380/.830. He is not a lockdown individual defender, but he led the league in defensive rebounding (9.9 defensive rebounds per game) while also averaging 1.4 spg and .8 bpg. Jokic has finished first or second in the MVP voting in each of the past five seasons, but a case could be made that he is underrated. Jokic has averaged at least 24.5 ppg, at least 10.8 rpg and at least 7.9 apg for six straight seasons while never shooting worse than .566 from the field; no player in pro basketball history has matched each of those thresholds for a six season span. Moreover, the team numbers show that during that period the Nuggets performed at an elite level when Jokic is on the court and resembled a Draft Lottery team when he is off of the court (and their 11-6 record this season without him is loaded with wins against lower echelon teams); in other words, he is not just stuffing the stat sheet individually but he is productive in ways that help his team win.
This is the fourth straight season that Shai Gilgeous-Alexander has performed at an MVP level, and in the previous three seasons he finished fifth, second, and first in the balloting. He averaged at least 30.1 ppg and at least 5.5 apg while shooting at least .510 from the field in each of those four seasons. Gilgeous-Alexander combines the elite midrange shooting touch of George Gervin with the ability to slash to the hoop, draw fouls, and dish to open teammates. He is also an excellent defensive player. There is nothing negative to say about him, and no reason that he should not be selected as MVP--except for the inconvenient fact that Jokic is even more productive and efficient.
Third year pro Victor Wembanyama has progressed rapidly in many areas: he is stronger, his shot selection is vastly improved, and he has learned how to impose his will on opposing teams (which is a subtler and more valuable skill than just accumulating gaudy individual numbers). This season, he set career highs in scoring (25.0 ppg), rebounding (11.5 rpg, fourth in the league), and field goal percentage (.512) while leading the league in blocked shots for the third straight season, a feat last accomplished by Marcus Camby (2006-08) and Dikembe Mutombo (1994-96). His Spurs limped to 22 wins in his rookie season, jogged to 34 wins in year two, and sprinted to 62 wins this season. Wembanyama would benefit from adding some more lower body strength, but he has no skill set weaknesses. He is an MVP caliber player--but Jokic is a better player who had an even better season. I rank Wembanyama behind Gilgeous-Alexander because Gilgeous-Alexander has already proven (1) he can sustain MVP caliber play for multiple seasons and (2) he can sustain MVP caliber play during a deep playoff run. One might argue that those two broad contextual factors are not relevant for selecting the MVP for this particular season but I disagree: in a close race, all factors have heightened importance and unless/until Wembanyama either laps the field of MVP candidates or leads his team on a deep playoff run I would select proven players Jokic and Gilgeous-Alexander ahead of him. Put another way, you have to beat the champ to be the champ. We know that what Jokic and Gilgeous-Alexander are doing is sustainable both year to year and in the playoffs, but we just assume that what Wembanyama is doing is sustainable.
I will share a few brief thoughts about three other players who have been mentioned as MVP candidates.
Doncic should not come close to the top three in the balloting. Doncic is a wunderkind on offense but too often he is missing in action on defense. His incessant whining to officials resulted in him accumulating 16 technical fouls, leading to an automatic one game suspension.
Jaylen Brown had a career year in terms of individual statistics, but the surprising Boston Celtics often performed just as well or even better when he did not play. He is an All-NBA First Team caliber player, but he is not as great as the top three MVP candidates.
Cade Cunningham is an elite scorer/playmaker who also plays good defense, but he is not more skillful or impactful than Jokic, Gilgeous-Alexander, or Wembanyama.
A review of the 2025-26 season would not be complete without mentioning tanking, which has become so widespread that up to 10 of the league's 30 teams are actively losing on purpose. This has major implications for ticket-buying fans, media sponsors, gamblers, and the league's statistical records, which have been permanently skewed, most notably when Bam Adebayo scored 83 points versus the Washington "Wheez-hards." This trampling of the sport's record book matters in terms of historical rankings: Jokic, Gilgeous-Alexander, Wembanyama and other players have set various records, but how seriously should we take those numbers when a third of the league's teams are actively trying to lose?
Here are my first round predictions:
Read more »Labels: Boston Celtics, Cade Cunningham, Denver Nuggets, Detroit Pistons, Jalen Brunson, Jaylen Brown, New York Knicks, Nikola Jokic, Oklahoma City Thunder, San Antonio Spurs, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Victor Wembanyama
posted by David Friedman @ 1:52 AM
