Reflections on How Much the NBA Has Changed Since Kobe Bryant's 81 Point Game
Yesterday was the 20th anniversary of Kobe Bryant's 81 point game, which is still the highest single game scoring total in ABA/NBA history by anyone not named Wilt Chamberlain. Bryant led his L.A. Lakers to a 122-104 win over the Toronto Raptors, capping a 10 game run during which Bryant averaged 45.5 ppg; he finished the season averaging a career-high 35.4 ppg--the NBA's highest single season scoring average since Michael Jordan scored 37.1 ppg in 1986-87--to capture the first of his two scoring titles.
Prior to Bryant's outburst versus the Raptors, there had been nine 70 point games in the NBA's 60 season history--six by Chamberlain (who still holds the single game record with 100 points), one by Elgin Baylor (71 in 1960, which was the NBA single game record before Chamberlain rewrote the record book), one by David Thompson (73 in 1978, the "non-Wilt" record for 28 years until Bryant scored 81), and one by David Robinson (71 in 1994). In the past nine years, five players have joined the 70 Point Club: Devin Booker, Donovan Mitchell, Damian Lillard, Joel Embiid, and Luka Doncic. After Embiid's 70 point game, I wrote about the NBA's recent explosion of 60 point games and 70 point games:
The recent proliferation of 60 point games raises a question: Are we blessed to be living in an era filled with more elite scorers than pro basketball has ever seen, or do other factors explain why so many players are having 60 point games? I would argue that rules changes and style of play changes have increased scoring across the board, which leads to more 60 point games: the game is placed at a faster pace now, with less physicality, and with a vastly increased usage of the three point shot. The (over)emphasis on three point shooting has not only resulted in more scoring by three point bombers--including Curry, Harden, and Lillard--but the near-abandonment of the paint defensively has made it easier for players to drive to the hoop and score in the paint. Old school players like Julius Erving and Michael Jordan who rarely shot three pointers would put up huge scoring numbers in today's game because (1) perimeter defenders would not be allowed to touch them and (2) most teams do not focus on rim protection, which means that after Erving or Jordan beat the first defender they would have an uncontested runway for their aerial acrobatics.
Without taking anything away from the talent level of today's top players, I would argue that the league's overall talent level is watered down by expansion and by the influx of players who played little to no college basketball. This means that the best players are able to feast on weak teams: Embiid dropped 70 on a terrible San Antonio team that emerged from tanking with a young roster that has no idea how to play winning NBA basketball. This also means that the best players are able to exploit matchup advantages even against good teams because many of the good teams lack depth: a star player who logs heavy minutes in today's NBA is going to spend some of those minutes sharing the court with vastly inferior bench players, but if you look back to the 1980s the best teams often had Hall of Famers coming off of the bench (Kevin McHale early in his career, Bobby Jones, Bob McAdoo, Bill Walton, etc.).
Scoring 60 or 70 points is a big accomplishment in any league, but there is good reason to believe that it is easier than ever to score 60 or 70 points in the NBA.
How much has scoring and three point shooting increased in the 20 years since Bryant's 81 point game? In the 2005-06 season, NBA teams averaged 97.0 ppg. Only five teams averaged at least 100 ppg, with the "Seven Seconds or Less" Phoenix Suns leading the league with 108.4 ppg, nearly 6 ppg more than the second place Seattle SuperSonics. NBA teams averaged 16.0 three point field goal attempts per game while shooting .358 from beyond the arc. Just over 20% of the league's field goal attempts were three pointers.
Bryant scored 81 points in a game at a time when teams often failed to score 81 points in a game; in the 2005-06 season, the Lakers scored 81 points or less in six games, the Raptors scored 81 points or less in two games, and the league's lowest scoring team (Portland) averaged just 88.8 ppg while scoring 81 points or less in 22 games.
So far this season, NBA teams are averaging 116.0 ppg, with the lowest scoring team (Brooklyn Nets) averaging 107.9 ppg. NBA teams are averaging 37.0 three point field goal attempts per game while shooting .359 from beyond the arc. More than 41% of the league's field goal attempts are three pointers.
The rules changes and style of play changes from the past 20 years suggest that the NBA decided that fans have such short attention spans and so little appreciation for the nuances of the game that the only way to keep them interested is to transmogrify the sport from a game of ball movement and player movement featuring diverse offensive strategies into a one dimensional game during which teams jack up as many three pointers as possible; three point field goal percentages have not improved in the past 20 years, but the volume of three point shooting has more than doubled. "Stat gurus" may believe that high volume three point shooting is inherently efficient, but shooting twice as many treys at less than a .360 clip while eschewing midrange shots and shots in the paint does not add up to efficient basketball, nor does it create aesthetically pleasing basketball.
At its best, basketball is an all-around game featuring skillful offense balanced by shrewd, physical defense. The step back move as utilized by Adrian Dantley, Larry Bird, and Dell Curry was a thing a of beauty. I used to practice it in my driveway while being careful to not take an extra step. In contrast to that technical artistry, what is called a step back move today is a travel and/or an offensive foul if basketball's rules were enforced as written. Commentators and fans scoff that old school players "had no bag" (did not have a bag of fancy ball handling moves), but the reality is that what is called a "bag" today includes traveling, carrying, palming, and flopping and flailing to bait referees into calling fouls against defensive players. No player epitomizes the NBA's emphasis on elevating offense over defense more than James Harden, who literally "traveled" through the NBA's record book thanks to the generous whistle that he received during his prime years.
Bryant scored 81 points in a game and averaged 35.4 ppg at a time when most NBA teams struggled to score 100 points per game; it is easy to picture prime Bryant averaging at least 40 ppg in today's NBA, and the same should be said of Michael Jordan. Julius Erving's hands are so big that when he played he could catch a basketball with one hand and go up for a shot without touching the ball with his other hand; it is tantalizing to dream about the wonders that Erving would perform in today's game when defensive physicality on the perimeter has been eliminated while offensive players are permitted to do just about anything with the ball short of running from one end of the court to the other with no dribbles. Erving shot .343 from three point range in his final three ABA seasons, so it is easy to picture Erving becoming a successful, high volume three point shooter if that had been a point of emphasis during his career--and that would have made him impossible to guard in today's NBA, leaving defenders with the unenviable choice of watching him bury three pointers or watching him fly to the hoop to dunk without facing rim protectors.
Labels: David Robinson, David Thompson, Elgin Baylor, Kobe Bryant, L.A. Lakers, Toronto Raptors, Wilt Chamberlain
posted by David Friedman @ 9:37 AM
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