2026-27 Eastern Conference Preview
Last season, the New York Knicks won their first NBA title since 1973. The Knicks enjoyed a dominant 16-3 playoff run that included a 13 game winning streak, which is the second longest playoff winning streak in NBA history--but to earn a repeat championship they will have to navigate an Eastern Conference landscape that has been reshaped by significant trades and free agent signings.
After posting a 56-26 record to finish second in the Eastern Conference in what was expected to be a gap year, the Boston Celtics traded 2024 NBA Finals MVP Jaylen Brown to the Philadelphia 76ers for Paul George, two first round draft picks, and two second round draft picks. This trade represented the culmination of the Celtics' efforts to manage their high payroll while still trying to remain a strong playoff team. It is surprising that these two historic rivals made a trade with each other, particularly right after the 76ers recovered from a 3-1 deficit to beat the Celtics in the first round of the 2026 playoffs. The Celtics should not be any worse in the regular season with a healthy Tatum plus George than they were last season with Brown but without Tatum for most of the season, but the unanswered question is if the Celtics can go farther in the playoffs than they did last season.
The Brown acquisition paved the way for the 76ers to sign free agent LeBron James to a two year veteran minimum deal. The 76ers have not won a championship since Moses Malone and Julius Erving led the 76ers to the 1983 NBA title, and the 76ers have not reached the NBA Finals since 2001. James has spent most of his career building or joining "super teams," and he has won at least one championship with each of his previous teams--Miami (2012, 2013), Cleveland (2016), L.A. Lakers (2020)--but Joel Embiid has spent more than a decade not staying healthy and not advancing past the second round.
The Cleveland Cavaliers reached the Eastern Conference Finals for the first time since LeBron James led the Cavaliers to four straight NBA Finals appearances from 2015-18. In the past four years, the Cavaliers lost in the first round, lost in the second round two years in a row, and then lost in the Eastern Conference Finals; on paper, the team seems to be on an upward trajectory, but relying heavily on James Harden will doom the Cavaliers to not advance past the Eastern Conference Finals--and to probably not even advancing that far again with him on the roster. Since he fled Oklahoma City in 2012, Harden's record in games when his team faced elimination is 5-14, and he played poorly in most of those games. When it matters most, Harden disappears, and that 14 year pattern is highly unlikely to change as his career winds down.
The Detroit Pistons posted the Eastern Conference's best record before losing 4-3 to the Cleveland Cavaliers in the second round. Coach J.B. Bickerstaff has lifted the Pistons from a 14-68 record under Monty Williams in 2023-24 to 44-38 in 2024-25 and 60-22 last season. This offseason, the Pistons parted ways with two of the top six players (based on mpg) in their rotation (Tobias Harris and Isaiah Stewart) along with Caris LeVert while adding John Collins, Isaiah Joe, and Taurean Prince. The Pistons are an elite defensive team, but they struggled to score during the playoffs, to the extent that they fell behind 3-1 in the first round before beating the Orlando Magic in seven games. The Pistons scored 105 points or less in each of the first four games of that series, and after surviving that scare they collapsed in game seven at home in the second round, losing 125-94 to the Cavaliers. It seems unlikely that the Pistons will win 60 games in the tough Eastern Conference, and it is not clear that their offseason moves made them a stronger postseason team.
With Pat Riley at the helm, the Miami Heat have chased and acquired big stars for decades, from Alonzo Mourning to Tim Hardaway to Shaquille O'Neal to LeBron James to Chris Bosh to Jimmy Butler, resulting in three NBA titles (2006, 2012, 2013) plus four other NBA Finals appearances (2011, 2014, 2020, 2023). This offseason, the Heat acquired Giannis Antetokounmpo, a two-time regular season MVP (2019-20) who led the Milwaukee Bucks to the 2021 NBA title. The Heat now have a formidable frontcourt rotation featuring Antetokounmpo, Bam Adebayo, Bobby Portis (acquired from Milwaukee along with Antetokounmpo), and Andrew Wiggins. The Heat are relying on offseason acquisitions Klay Thompson and Tim Hardaway Jr. to provide reliable volume three point shooting.
Listed below are the eight teams that I expect to qualify for the Eastern
Conference playoffs, ranked based on their likelihood of advancing to the NBA
Finals:
1) New York Knicks: The Knicks joined a short list of teams who won a championship after replacing a very successful coach. Mike Brown guided the Knicks to their first NBA title since 1973 in his first season at the helm after the Knicks fired Tom Thibodeau, who had just led the team to the Eastern Conference Finals for the first time since 2000 while taking the Knicks to three straight playoff appearances for the first time since 2011-13.
The Knicks only improved by two regular season wins under Brown--from 51-to 53--but they made a huge leap in defensive field goal percentage, jumping from 25th to fifth, and that carried over into the postseason; during the 2025 playoffs, the Knicks ranked eighth out of 16 teams in defensive field goal percentage, but in the 2026 playoffs the Knicks ranked third in defensive field goal percentage. The Knicks ranked first in field goal percentage in the 2026 playoffs after ranking fifth in field goal percentage in the 2025 playoffs. The Knicks' increased efficiency at both ends of the court translated into several blowout wins and several comebacks from significant deficits because the Knicks were able to both clamp down opposing offenses and go on hot shooting streaks.
Jalen Brunson has exceeded all reasonable expectations for what can be achieved by a 6-2 player who is not a high flyer and who is not exceptionally quick. What Brunson lacks in height, vertical leap, and explosiveness is more than compensated for with his savvy, footwork, clutch shotmaking, and toughness. During the regular season, he led the Knicks in scoring (26.0 ppg) and assists (6.8 apg) to earn his third straight selections as both an All-Star and as a member of the All-NBA Second Team. He did not receive a single regular season MVP vote after finishing 10th in 2024-25 and fifth in 2023-24. Brunson lifted his game in the playoffs, averaging 28.4 ppg and 6.1 apg overall, including 32.6 ppg and 4.6 apg in the NBA Finals to earn the Bill Russell NBA Finals MVP.
During the regular season, Karl Anthony-Towns averaged 20.1 ppg and 11.9 rpg (ranking second in the league for the second year in a row). His playoff numbers (15.9 ppg, 10.6 rpg, 4.9 apg, playoff career-high .551 FG%) only hint at his tremendous impact during the Knicks' championship run. After the Knicks fell behind 2-1 versus the Atlanta Hawks in the first round, Towns morphed into an elite playmaker, posting at least six assists in seven straight games as the Knicks won three in a row versus the Hawks before sweeping the Philadelphia 76ers, 4-0. Towns had triple doubles against the Hawks in game four (20 points, 10 rebounds, 10 assists) and in game six (12 points, 11 rebounds, 10 assists). Prior to that remarkable stretch, Towns' playoff career-high for assists had been five. Towns' playmaking put pressure on opposing defenses that were already stretched to the breaking point trying to contend with Brunson's herky jerky game and impeccable footwork in the paint.
Other than losing valuable backup center Mitchell Robinson to the Boston Celtics, the Knicks kept their championship rotation intact; the chemistry that those players built during the playoff run will serve them well during any rough spots in the regular season and playoffs.
2) Boston Celtics: Despite Jayson Tatum missing 66 games while recovering from a ruptured right Achilles and despite trading key rotation players Jrue Holiday and Kristaps Porzingis to save money to avoid the dreaded second apron, the Celtics posted the Eastern Conference's second best record (56-26). After Tatum returned late in the season, the Celtics looked poised to make a deep playoff run, but the Celtics' postseason ending abruptly when they lost three straight games after taking a 3-1 first round lead versus the Philadelphia 76ers. Tatum averaged 23.3 ppg, a team-high 10.7 rpg, and a team-high 6.8 apg in the first six games before missing game seven due to left knee stiffness.
Instead of running it back with the Tatum-Brown duo leading the way, the Celtics shipped Brown to the 76ers for Paul George, a 36 year old swingman who played in just 37 games last season, with 25 of his missed games stemming from a suspension for violating the NBA's drug policy. He did not exactly set the world on fire when he played, averaging 17.3 ppg, 5.3 rpg, and 3.7 apg, falling to reach his career norms in all three categories. George is a nine-time All-Star, but he made the All-Star team just three times in the past seven seasons, with his last selection coming in 2024. The Celtics also signed free agent center Mitchell Robinson, a move that bolstered their frontcourt while weakening the Knicks' frontcourt. Robinson provides physicality and rebounding, particularly on the offensive glass.
Losing Brown for George and Robinson is a net minus, but it is important to remember that the Celtics also "gained" Tatum. The Celtics are well-run and well-coached, so unless Tatum gets hurt again they should maintain their perch near the top of the Eastern Conference standings. The main concern for the Celtics is that they rely too heavily on high volume three point shooting, a high variance strategy that does not tend to correlate with championship success; the Celtics shot 13-49 (.265) from three point range in their game seven loss to the 76ers. Indiscriminate long range bombing only works when it is paired with elite defense and rebounding. When the Celtics won the 2024 NBA championship, they ranked second in the league in defensive field goal percentage, second in rebounding, and fifth in points allowed during the regular season in addition to ranking first in three point field goals made; during the 2024 playoffs, they ranked third in points allowed, third in rebounding and sixth in defensive field goal percentage.
3) Philadelphia 76ers: If you squint while looking into a crystal ball, it is possible to see a world in which the Philadelphia 76ers win the 2027 NBA championship; in that world, Joel Embiid and LeBron James are both healthy enough to play in at least 60 regular season games plus a full slate of playoff games while not only scoring efficiently but also playing solid defense--and in that world, Jaylen Brown is one of the top three wings in the NBA, Tyrese Maxey is an All-NBA shooting guard, and the rotation players are willing to sacrifice offensively while playing strong defense.
However, in the real world, Joel Embiid has never advanced past the second round of the playoffs in his 12 season career (including missing two full seasons due to injuries), and he has played in 39 games or less in each of the past three seasons. He has played in at least 60 games in a season only four times. James is a remarkably durable player, but since playing in all 82 games in 2017-18 (his age 33 season) he has played at least 70 games in a season just twice in eight years while playing in 60 games or less five times. James has not received a vote in Defensive Player of the Year balloting since 2017, and he has not made the All-Defensive Team since 2014. Expecting Embiid and James to not only remain healthy but to play anything close to championship caliber defense is a major reach.
Maxey is the 76ers' best and most consistent player. He averaged a career-high 28.3 ppg last season with .462/.367/.892 shooting splits while also dishing for a career-high 6.6 apg. However, he ranks fourth on this squad in star power behind four-time regular season MVP/four-time NBA Finals MVP James, one-time regular season MVP Embiid, and one-time NBA Finals MVP Brown. It is almost certain that James will be the dominant ballhandler, meaning that he will decide when and how often everyone else gets to touch the ball. It will be interesting to see how this team navigates the potentially rough waters of creating offensive chemistry when the two biggest stars are likely to (1) miss a lot of games and (2) exert less than full effort defensively.
4) Cleveland Cavaliers: How meaningful is it that the Cavaliers reached the 2026 Eastern Conference Finals? As I noted in my 2020 assessment of Daryl Morey's legacy up to that point, the NBA's competitive balance means that over a long enough period of time most teams advance that far at least once:
How significant is it to reach the Conference Finals? Two teams advance that far each year in each conference, so if those appearances were evenly distributed over a 13 year period with 15 teams in each conference then each team would average 1.7 Conference Finals appearances. In the past 13 years, 10 Eastern Conference teams and 10 Western Conference teams made at least one Conference Finals appearance and six teams in each conference made at least two Conference Finals appearances.
On one hand, it is an accomplishment to reach the Conference Finals, which is the NBA's equivalent of the NCAA Final Four; on the other hand, the NBA is structured to promote parity, which is why so many teams reach the Conference Finals once only to rapidly fall off, with the 2019 Portland Trail Blazers and the 2021 Atlanta Hawks being two prime examples of teams that made fluky Conference Finals runs while being led by offense-first/defense-optional guards. The Cavaliers are more talented, deeper, and better defensively than those two squads, but it takes a lot for a team to overcome the negatives that James Harden brings in terms of team chemistry, defense, and playoff choking.
The Cavaliers' two main offseason moves were signing contract extensions for Donovan Mitchell and James Harden. Extending Mitchell is a no-brainer--he is the team's best player and he is in his prime. Extending Harden is questionable long term but not surprising; the Cavaliers have hitched their wagon to Harden, and they are going to ride that wagon until it reaches the finish line or until the wheels fall off. In my 2025-26 Eastern Conference Preview, I declared, "I don't trust the Cavaliers versus the Knicks in a best of seven series"--and that was before the Cavaliers traded Darius Garland for Harden, who subsequently added yet another line to his horrific elimination game resume by scoring 12 points on 2-8 field goal shooting while committing five turnovers as the Knicks routed the Cavaliers 130-93 to complete a 4-0 sweep in the 2026 Eastern Conference Finals. I can't picture any team winning a championship while relying on Harden as a key player, but maybe the Cavaliers will unlock hidden playoff greatness in Harden that Oklahoma City, Houston, Brooklyn, Philadelphia, and the L.A. Clippers could not find.
The Cavaliers also acquired Peyton Watson in a five team deal and then signed the 3 and D wing to a four year, $88 million deal. Watson's tall task is to make up for the defensive deficiencies of the Cavaliers' guards and wings. What Watson cannot do is make up for the Cavaliers' inexplicable softness in the paint despite having two highly touted big men (Evan Mobley and Jarrett Allen). During the Eastern Conference Finals, the Knicks outrebounded the Cavaliers 46.0 rpg to 36.8 rpg and the Knicks outscored the Cavaliers in the paint by 12.5 ppg. Teams that get pushed around don't win championships.
The Cavaliers will win at least 50 regular season games, and they will almost certainly win their first round playoff series, but anything after that is a question mark as long as Harden is running the point. Harden's career record in the first round is 11-6, and his record in subsequent rounds is 6-11. That 17-17 playoff series record overall includes a 5-3 mark when he was Oklahoma City's third option behind Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook, so Harden's playoff series record as the number one option (or at least the primary ballhandler) is 12-14, including 3-9 after the first round.
5) Detroit Pistons: Cade Cunningham has earned consecutive All-Star selections and consecutive All-NBA Team selections, including his first All-NBA First Team honor last season. He is an elite scorer and playmaker, and he rebounds well for a point guard. At just 25 years old, the five year veteran has likely not yet reached his peak. Cunningham's main weakness is that he can be sloppy with the ball; he has averaged 5.6 tpg in 20 career playoff games. The Pistons need to acquire or develop a competent secondary ballhandler to take some of the pressure off of Cunningham.
Jalen Duren had a breakout regular season, averaging a career-high 19.5 ppg to earn his first All-Star selection and his first All-NBA selection (Third Team) but in the playoffs he went from breakout to broken down, averaging just 10.2 ppg. Duren and the Pistons spent most of the offseason in a standoff regarding the length and amount of his contract extension before he finally signed a five year extension for $200 million, which is significantly less than the max deal for which he was eligible.
It might seem odd to say this about a young team that just finished with the best record in the Eastern Conference (60-22), but there are more questions than answers for the Pistons, and it does not seem likely that the Pistons will match last season's win total or advance past the second round of the playoffs.
6) Miami Heat: In a busy and productive offseason, the Heat acquired Giannis Antetokounmpo, Bobby Portis, Klay Thompson, and Tim Hardaway Jr. Antetokounmpo, Bam Adebayo, and Bobby Portis form one of the league's best big men trios, while Thompson and Hardaway Jr. provide much-needed perimeter shooting, and 2014 number one overall draft pick Andrew Wiggins is a consistent scorer who has averaged at least 13.4 ppg in each of his 12 NBA seasons.
The questions about the Heat revolve around the point guard position and overall depth. Antetokounmpo can be a playmaker in open court situations and even in some half court sets--as can Adebayo--but the Heat lack a veteran, dependable point guard who can run the offense.
Erik Spoelstra may be the NBA's best coach. He will make sure that this team plays good defense and plays offense as efficiently as possible, but until the Heat upgrade their point guard rotation and bolster their depth they will not be a championship contender.
7) Toronto Raptors: Last season, the Raptors finished 46-36 while ranking seventh in field goal percentage and 10th in defensive field goal percentage. They pushed eventual Eastern Conference Finalist Cleveland to seven games in the first round.
Scottie Barnes (18.1 ppg, 7.5 rpg, 5.9 apg) earned his second All-Star selection in the past three seasons while finishing fifth in Defensive Player of the Year voting and making the All-Defensive Second Team for the first time. Barnes was the best all-around player on a young team that could use some veteran leadership.
Enter Kawhi Leonard: this offseason, the Raptors shipped the oft-injured Brandon Ingram (21.5 ppg) and Gradey Dick to the L.A. Clippers for the oft-injured Leonard, who earned the second of his two NBA Finals MVPs after leading the Raptors to the 2019 NBA title, the first and only championship in franchise history. Leonard averaged a career-high 27.9 ppg in 64 games for the Clippers last season, and he emerged largely unscathed from the Clippers' salary cap circumvention debacle.
If Leonard stays healthy--a major "if" for a player who has participated in at least 65 regular season games just twice in the past nine seasons--then he and Barnes could be a formidable duo, but the more realistic scenario is that Leonard misses a lot of games and the Raptors end up with around the same number of wins that they had last season. Even if Leonard is healthy, the Raptors' lack of size will hurt them versus the better Eastern Conference teams that have All-Star big men--and it should be noted that Leonard has not advanced past the second round of the playoffs since 2019 (the Clippers reached the 2021 Western Conference Finals after Leonard suffered a season-ending injury in the second round).
8) Orlando Magic: The Magic fired coach Jamahl Mosley after losing in the first round for the third straight year. They replaced him with Sean Sweeney, who will make his NBA head coaching debut after serving as an NBA assistant coach for 13 seasons with five different teams.
Under Mosley, the Magic played at a slow pace but were mediocre at best at both ends of the court; last season, the Magic ranked 13th in the league in points allowed, 15th in points scored, 19th in defensive field goal percentage, and 21st in field goal percentage.
Paolo Banchero is the team's best player, but he has not progressed much since winning the 2023 Rookie of the Year award and earning his lone All-Star selection in 2024. Last season, he averaged 22.2 ppg, 8.4 rpg, and 5.2 apg, good numbers that are in line with his career averages (22.3 ppg, 7.4 rpg, 4.8 apg). He raises his game in the playoffs (27.4 ppg, 8.7 rpg, 4.9 apg in 19 career playoff games) but that has not been enough to win even one playoff series. Banchero is not an efficient scorer or an above average defensive player.
When Banchero, Franz Wagner (20.6 ppg in 34 games last season), and Desmond Bane (20.1 ppg in a team-high 82 games last season) are healthy the Magic have a solid "big three" surrounded by a decent rotation that includes Jalen Suggs (13.8 ppg, team-high 5.5 apg last season), Anthony Black, and Wendell Carter Jr. A couple years ago, the Magic were viewed as a team on the rise, but after losing in the first round for three straight years while not making any significant roster upgrades the more realistic perspective is that this is a lower tier playoff team that is not a serious threat to the Eastern Conference's top teams.
The teams that finish seventh through
10th in the regular season standings will participate in the Play-In
Tournament. The above eight teams are the teams that I predict will
qualify for the
playoffs, regardless of what the final regular season standings are.
The Indiana Pacers are a popular pick to be a sleeper team with the return of Tyrese Haliburton from a ruptured right Achilles, but the Pacers went 19-63 last season so they would need to add at least 20-25 wins to that total just to reach the Play-In Tournament. The Pacers are counting heavily on Ivica Zubac to replace the impact provided by Myles Turner during the team's 2025 playoff run to the NBA Finals. Even assuming that Haliburton will be as good as he was before the injury--which is far from certain for a perimeter player who relies on quickness and agility--it will be a tall task for the Pacers to jump from being the second worst team in the Eastern Conference to being a top eight team, let alone being a championship contender.
Last season, the Atlanta Hawks made the playoffs for the first time in three seasons, and they took a 2-1 first round lead versus the Knicks before losing three games in a row by double digit margins. The Knicks' 140-89 game six win indicated that the gap between an NBA championship team and the Hawks is quite large. In the offseason, the Hawks bolstered their backcourt by acquiring Lu Dort, Ryan Nembhard, and Aaron Wiggins, but that will not be enough to keep the Hawks in the top eight in a strong Eastern Conference.
Jerry Krause infamously said "Organizations win championships," but since Krause broke up the "Last Dance" Bulls team after the 1998 championship season the Bulls have won just five playoff series in 27 seasons and they have not advanced past the first round since 2015; it takes four series wins to capture an NBA title, so the Bulls' (dis)organization has not accomplished much since chasing away Michael Jordan and company. I've lost count of how many five year plans the Bulls have started during that time, but they have once again restructured their front office and hired a new coach. As The Who song goes, "Meet the new boss, same as the old boss." Last season, the Bulls ranked 28th in points allowed and 22nd in defensive field goal percentage; they will have to significantly improve those rankings to make the playoffs.
The Milwaukee Bucks traded away franchise player Giannis Antetokounpo for several solid players, and that is just not a recipe for making the playoffs. Not surprisingly, no NBA team has performed better in the season after trading away a former regular season MVP. The Bucks missed the playoffs last season with Antetokounmpo, and they will miss the playoffs this season without him.
The Charlotte Hornets narrowly missed the playoffs last season, but instead of standing pat they did a significant roster makeover, capped off by trading dynamic point guard LaMelo Ball to the Minnesota Timberwolves for Naz Reid and draft picks. Perhaps the Hornets' management felt that the roster as constructed had peaked and thus change was necessary, but at least in the short run the Hornets look to be a worse team now than they were at the end of last season.
Washington Wizards' fans hope that Anthony Davis and Trae Young will lead the team to the playoffs for the first time since Russell Westbrook carried the team that should be known as the "Wheeze-hards" to the 2021 playoffs, but since 2020 Davis has missed the playoffs three times while advancing past the second round just once, while Trae Young has reached the playoffs three times in his eight season career. It would be a huge disappointment if the Wizards are not better than they were last season when they were losing on purpose, but it is unlikely that this team will make the playoffs.
Last season, the Brooklyn Nets ranked 30th (last) in the league in field goal percentage, defensive field goal percentage, and rebounding. Their biggest offseason move was acquiring Julius Randle from the Minnesota Timberwolves in a multi-team deal. Randle has a career scoring average of 19.1 ppg on .472 field goal shooting, so he may help the Nets escape the field goal percentage basement, but he is not going to significantly impact the team's defense or rebounding. The Nets had the third worst record in the Eastern Conference last season, narrowly edging out two teams (Indiana and Washington) that were not trying very hard to win. The NBA changed rules to remove the incentives for tanking, so with every team presumably trying to win the Nets could be the worst team in the Eastern Conference next season.
**********
Note:
I correctly picked six of the eight 2026 Eastern Conference playoff teams. Here are
my statistics for previous seasons:
2025: 7/8
2024: 7/8
2023: 7/8
2022: 6/8
2021: 6/8
2020: 7/8
2019: 6/8
2018: 6/8
2017: 5/8
2016: 5/8
2015: 5/8
2014: 6/8
2013: 7/8
2012: 8/8
2011: 5/8
2010: 6/8
2009: 6/8
2008: 5/8
2007: 7/8
2006: 6/8
2006-2025 Total: 130/168 (.774)
Labels: Boston Celtics, Cleveland Cavaliers, Detroit Pistons, Miami Heat, New York Knicks, Orlando Magic, Philadelphia 76ers, Toronto Raptors
posted by David Friedman @ 11:17 PM
Raptors Mount Late Comeback, Tie Series With Cavaliers 2-2
The Cleveland Cavaliers built a nine point second quarter lead and were ahead 84-76 with 4:30 remaining in the fourth quarter before the Toronto Raptors rallied to win 93-89 and tie this first round series 2-2. The Raptors shot just 31-97 (.320) from the field but the Cavaliers shot almost as poorly (32-87, .368) while getting outrebounded 59-56 and losing the turnover battle 17-11. The Raptors compensated for their abysmal three point field goal shooting (4-30, .133) by outscoring the Cavaliers 50-38 in the paint while also topping the Cavaliers in second chance points 19-7 and fast break points 15-10.
Scottie Barnes and Brandon Ingram each scored a game-high 23 points to lead the Raptors, while R.J. Barrett added 18 points and Collin Murray-Boyles contributed 15 points plus a team-high 10 rebounds off of the bench. Barnes--who has been the best player in the series (series-high 25.8 ppg, series-high 7.3 apg, 4.8 rpg, 1.3 bpg, 1.0 spg, .523 FG%)--had an excellent floor game with nine rebounds, six assists, three blocked shots, and one steal.
Donovan Mitchell paced the Cavaliers with 20 points, but he shot 6-24 from the field. James Harden had 19 points and a team-high eight assists, but he had a game-high seven turnovers, three more than any other player.
The Raptors deserve full credit for playing hard and figuring out how to
win a must-win game, but the big picture focus should be on the
Cavaliers, who have been widely touted as a championship contender since acquiring Harden.
The first half featured some mind-numbingly bad, unwatchable basketball as Toronto scored 38 points on 15-54 (.278) field goal shooting while Cleveland managed only 36 points on 15-45 (.333) field goal shooting. If you enjoy watching high volume, low accuracy three point shooting then the first half was heaven for you as the teams combined to shoot 7-39 (.179) from beyond the arc. ESPN's Ernie Johnson referenced the old movie "The Gang That Couldn't Shoot Straight" to open the halftime show. There is no truth to the rumor that during halftime the NBA's Board of Governors and the league's broadcast partners tried to enact a rules change stipulating that not only would the second half not be played but that both teams would be summarily eliminated from the playoffs.
I love good defense, but this game was more about teams being unable to make three pointers and being unwilling to try two pointers then it was about good defense.
During the third quarter, the teams stumbled to a 22-22 tie while combining to shoot 1-18 (.056) from three point range, which meant that the Raptors clung to a 60-58 lead heading into a fourth quarter that would determine whether the Raptors would tie the series 2-2 or fall into a 3-1 hole that is usually fatal. After Mitchell hit two free throws at the 4:55 mark, the Cavaliers led 84-76 as this rock fight disguised as a basketball game lurched toward its conclusion, but the Raptors closed the game with a 17-5 run to stay alive as the series shifts back to Cleveland for game five on Wednesday.
Shockingly, both teams shot well in the final stanza, with Toronto shooting 11-22 (.500) from the field and Cleveland nearly matching that with 10-21 (.476) field goal shooting. What stood out and made the difference is that Harden and Mitchell combined to dominate the ball while shooting terribly. Mitchell scored 12 points but shot just 3-9 from the field, including an ill-advised off balance missed three pointer with 10 seconds remaining and the Raptors leading 90-87; the Cavaliers had enough time to quickly score a two pointer and then foul to get the ball back. The scariest thing for the Cavaliers is that "Playoff Harden" mode seemed to be activated in this game: he shot 1-4 from the field in the fourth quarter with the game on the line, and he tallied yet another "Harden" in a playoff game by having more turnovers (seven) than field goals made (six). What is most disturbing for the Cavaliers is not only the careless nature of many of Harden's turnovers but the lackadaisical way that he failed to get back on defense after committing those turnovers. In a low scoring game, such plays are huge.
Plus/minus can be noisy in small sample sizes, and this game is a great example of such noise. If you watched the whole game with understanding, then you noticed that Harden and Mitchell co-authored the defeat due to Harden's reckless ballhandling and terrible transition defense combined with Mitchell's poor shooting and questionable shot selection. Mitchell's -8 plus/minus number reflects how he played, but Harden's +1 plus/minus number is surprising, so I dug into that to try to figure out what happened. Harden played 7:53 in the third quarter, and he somehow had a +10 plus/minus number as the teams battled to a 22-22 tie, which means his plus/minus number for the rest of the game was -9. Harden played all 12 minutes in the fourth quarter, posting a -2 plus/minus number.
Harden's overall series numbers are solid (21.8 ppg, 6.5 apg, 3.3 rpg, .475 FG%) except for his alarming 24 turnovers (6.0 tpg), 10 more than any other player on either team. Harden has posted a "Harden" in each of the last two playoff games in this series (he had a game-high eight turnovers and five field goals made in Cleveland's 126-104 game three loss). He has logged a "Harden" four times in his last 13 playoff games, and that does not include hiswn 2-8 field goal shooting with two turnovers as the Denver Nuggets routed his L.A. Clippers 120-101 in game seven last year.
The Cavaliers are purported to be a championship contender this season, while the young Raptors are rising but are not a championship contender. The Cavaliers should win the next two games to close out the series in six games (which was my prediction in my playoff preview), but when the supposedly superior team gives away a winnable game and drags out a series anything can happen--an injury, a suspension, a fluky shot. The Cavaliers will likely not get the full "Playoff Harden" experience until the second round, but games three and four of this series provided a preview of what that will look like.
Labels: Brandon Ingram, Cleveland Cavaliers, Donovan Mitchell, James Harden, Scottie Barnes, Toronto Raptors
posted by David Friedman @ 12:02 PM
Reflections on How Much the NBA Has Changed Since Kobe Bryant's 81 Point Game
Yesterday was the 20th anniversary of Kobe Bryant's 81 point game, which is still the highest single game scoring total in ABA/NBA history by anyone not named Wilt Chamberlain. Bryant led his L.A. Lakers to a 122-104 win over the Toronto Raptors, capping a 10 game run during which Bryant averaged 45.5 ppg; he finished the season averaging a career-high 35.4 ppg--the NBA's highest single season scoring average since Michael Jordan scored 37.1 ppg in 1986-87--to capture the first of his two scoring titles.
Prior to Bryant's outburst versus the Raptors, there had been nine 70 point games in the NBA's 60 season history--six by Chamberlain (who still holds the single game record with 100 points), one by Elgin Baylor (71 in 1960, which was the NBA single game record before Chamberlain rewrote the record book), one by David Thompson (73 in 1978, the "non-Wilt" record for 28 years until Bryant scored 81), and one by David Robinson (71 in 1994). In the past nine years, five players have joined the 70 Point Club: Devin Booker, Donovan Mitchell, Damian Lillard, Joel Embiid, and Luka Doncic. After Embiid's 70 point game, I wrote about the NBA's recent explosion of 60 point games and 70 point games:
The recent proliferation of 60 point games raises a question: Are we
blessed to be living in an era filled with more elite scorers than pro
basketball has ever seen, or do other factors explain why so many
players are having 60 point games? I would argue that rules changes and
style of play changes have increased scoring across the board, which
leads to more 60 point games: the game is placed at a faster pace now,
with less physicality, and with a vastly increased usage of the three point shot.
The (over)emphasis on three point shooting has not only resulted in
more scoring by three point bombers--including Curry, Harden, and
Lillard--but the near-abandonment of the paint defensively has made it
easier for players to drive to the hoop and score in the paint. Old
school players like Julius Erving and Michael Jordan who rarely shot
three pointers would put up huge scoring numbers in today's game because
(1) perimeter defenders would not be allowed to touch them and (2) most
teams do not focus on rim protection, which means that after Erving or
Jordan beat the first defender they would have an uncontested runway for
their aerial acrobatics.
Without taking anything away from the
talent level of today's top players, I would argue that the league's
overall talent level is
watered down by expansion and by the influx of players who played little
to no college basketball. This means that the best players are able to
feast on weak teams: Embiid dropped 70 on a terrible San Antonio team
that emerged from tanking with a young roster that has no idea how to
play winning NBA basketball. This also means that the best players are
able to exploit matchup advantages even against good teams because many
of the good teams lack depth: a star player who logs heavy minutes in
today's NBA is going to spend some of those minutes sharing the court
with vastly inferior bench players, but if you look back to the 1980s
the best teams often had Hall of Famers coming off of the bench (Kevin
McHale early in his career, Bobby Jones, Bob McAdoo, Bill Walton, etc.).
Scoring
60 or 70 points is a big accomplishment in any league, but there is
good reason to believe that it is easier than ever to score 60 or 70
points in the NBA.
How much has scoring and three point shooting increased in the 20 years since Bryant's 81 point game? In the 2005-06 season, NBA teams averaged 97.0 ppg. Only five teams averaged at least 100 ppg, with the "Seven Seconds or Less" Phoenix Suns leading the league with 108.4 ppg, nearly 6 ppg more than the second place Seattle SuperSonics. NBA teams averaged 16.0 three point field goal attempts per game while shooting .358 from beyond the arc. Just over 20% of the league's field goal attempts were three pointers.
Bryant scored 81 points in a game at a time when teams often failed to score 81 points in a game; in the 2005-06 season, the Lakers scored 81 points or less in six games, the Raptors scored 81 points or less in two games, and the league's lowest scoring team (Portland) averaged just 88.8 ppg while scoring 81 points or less in 22 games.
So far this season, NBA teams are averaging 116.0 ppg, with the lowest
scoring team (Brooklyn Nets) averaging 107.9 ppg. NBA teams are
averaging 37.0 three point field goal attempts per game while shooting
.359 from beyond the arc. More than 41% of the league's field goal
attempts are three pointers.
The rules changes and style of play changes from the past 20 years suggest that the NBA decided that fans have such short attention spans and so little appreciation for the nuances of the game that the only way to keep them interested is to transmogrify the sport from a game of ball movement and player movement featuring diverse offensive strategies into a one dimensional game during which teams jack up as many three pointers as possible; three point field goal percentages have not improved in the past 20 years, but the volume of three point shooting has more than doubled. "Stat gurus" may believe that high volume three point shooting is inherently efficient, but shooting twice as many treys at less than a .360 clip while eschewing midrange shots and shots in the paint does not add up to efficient basketball, nor does it create aesthetically pleasing basketball.
At its best, basketball is an all-around game featuring skillful offense balanced by shrewd, physical defense. The step back move as utilized by Adrian Dantley, Larry Bird, and Dell Curry was a thing a of beauty. I used to practice it in my driveway while being careful to not take an extra step. In contrast to that technical artistry, what is called a step back move today is a travel and/or an offensive foul if basketball's rules were enforced as written. Commentators and fans scoff that old school players "had no bag" (did not have a bag of fancy ball handling moves), but the reality is that what is called a "bag" today includes traveling, carrying, palming, and flopping and flailing to bait referees into calling fouls against defensive players. No player epitomizes the NBA's emphasis on elevating offense over defense more than James Harden, who literally "traveled" through the NBA's record book thanks to the generous whistle that he received during his prime years.
Bryant scored 81 points in a game and averaged 35.4 ppg at a time when most NBA teams struggled to score 100 points per game; it is easy to picture prime Bryant averaging at least 40 ppg in today's NBA, and the same should be said of Michael Jordan. Julius Erving's hands are so big that when he played he could catch a basketball with one hand and go up for a shot without touching the ball with his other hand; it is tantalizing to dream about the wonders that Erving would perform in today's game when defensive physicality on the perimeter has been eliminated while offensive players are permitted to do just about anything with the ball short of running from one end of the court to the other with no dribbles. Erving shot .343 from three point range in his final three ABA seasons, so it is easy to picture Erving becoming a successful, high volume three point shooter if that had been a point of emphasis during his career--and that would have made him impossible to guard in today's NBA, leaving defenders with the unenviable choice of watching him bury three pointers or watching him fly to the hoop to dunk without facing rim protectors.
Labels: David Robinson, David Thompson, Elgin Baylor, Kobe Bryant, L.A. Lakers, Toronto Raptors, Wilt Chamberlain
posted by David Friedman @ 9:37 AM
New York and Orlando Advance to the NBA Cup Semifinals
The Orlando Magic defeated the Miami Heat 117-108 in the first of the 2025 NBA Cup quarterfinals games. Last year, the Magic lost to the Milwaukee Bucks in the NBA Cup quarterfinals, but this year their offseason addition of Desmond Bane paid big dividends as he erupted for a game-high 37 points on 14-24 field goal shooting, including 6-9 from three point range for a team that ranked 30th (last) in the league in three point field goal percentage last season. Jalen Suggs contributed 20 points, four assists, and two steals, Paolo Banchero added 18 points, seven rebounds, and four assists, and Wendell Carter Jr. had 14 points plus a game-high 10 rebounds. The Magic won the rebounding battle 47-39 and they outscored the Heat in the paint 60-52. Norman Powell led a balanced Heat offense with 21 points on 8-19 field goal shooting, followed closely by Tyler Herro (20 points), Bam Adebeyo (19 points, team-high eight rebounds), and Andrew Wiggins (19 points).
In my December 3 NBA Cup article, I picked Orlando to beat Miami, but that was before the Magic's Franz Wagner suffered a left high ankle sprain that is expected to sideline him for several weeks. Wagner is averaging 22.7 ppg, 6.1 rpg, and 3.7 apg in 24 games this season, and initially the Magic struggled without him as the Heat jumped to a 15-0 lead by the 9:16 mark of the first quarter. The Magic outscored the Heat 17-15 the rest of the way in the first quarter, and then won the second quarter 39-27 to pull to within 57-56 by halftime. The Magic took the lead early in the third quarter before Bane fouled Adebayo on a three point attempt at the 8:53 mark. Adebayo made the first two free throws before missing the third, but Adebayo scooped up the rebound and Powell drained a three pointer a few seconds later to complete the rare five point possession, putting the Heat up, 69-66. Suggs answered with a three pointer to tie the score, and the Magic never trailed again. The Magic waste too many possessions and make too many careless plays to be a championship team, but Bane's 25 second half points proved to be too much for the Heat to overcome.
Even with this loss, the Heat are still one of the NBA's pleasant surprises. They are playing at the fastest pace in franchise history, ranking
third in the league in scoring (122.3 ppg) prior to this game. Jimmy Butler forced his way out of Miami last season and he landed with the Golden State Warriors, but so far this season the Heat have a better record than the Warriors. Butler's video message to Warriors' fans after he joined the team--"Championship coming soon"--is not aging well. Miami coach Erik Spoelstra proved that he can successfully handle the egos on a super team while leading the Heat to NBA titles in 2012 and 2013 with LeBron James, Dwyane Wade, and Chris Bosh forming a "Big Three," and he has also shown that he can maximize the output of a team that does not have even one superstar.
In the second game of Amazon Prime's NBA Cup quarterfinals doubleheader, the New York Knicks beat the Toronto Raptors 117-101. Jalen Brunson poured in a game-high 35 points on 13-19 field goal shooting, including 6-9 from beyond the arc. He had 20 first quarter points on 7-9 field goal shooting to help the Knicks overcome an otherwise slow start. An alleged problem for the Knicks last season was that coach Tom Thiboedeau relied too heavily on his starters, but the formula that carried them to the Eastern Conference Finals for the first time since 2000 also worked in this game for coach Mike Brown: the Knicks' starters scored 98 of the team's 117 points while four of New York's starters played at least 36 minutes each. Josh Hart contributed 21 points, six rebounds, and four assists. Mikal Bridges had 15 points, five rebounds, and four assists, Karl-Anthony Towns added 14 points, a game-high 16 rebounds, and two blocked shots, and OG Anunoby chipped in 13 points plus six rebounds. The Knicks outrebounded the Raptors 48-37, and they shot .525 (42-80) from the field while holding the Raptors to .433 (39-90) field goal shooting. Brandon Ingram led the Raptors with 31 points on 11-18 field goal shooting while also grabbing six rebounds and dishing six assists. Jamal Shead made his first start of the season in place of the injured Immanuel Quickley, and he scored 18 points while passing for a game-high eight assists. Scottie Barnes scored just 13 points on 6-18 field goal shooting, tying his second lowest point total of the season.
This game played out the way that I expected; in my aforementioned December 3 NBA cup article, I picked New York to beat Toronto by double digits, noting that Toronto "feasted on a weak schedule loaded with sub-.500 teams, and they lost to the Knicks 116-94 on November 30." The Raptors gave their fans some early (and false) hope by taking a 17-11 first quarter lead and they were still up 39-35 at the end of the first quarter--but the Knicks blitzed the Raptors 34-13 in the second quarter, shooting .583 (14-24) from the field while holding the Raptors to .238 (5-21) field goal shooting. The Raptors outscored the Knicks 49-48 in the second half, but that was not nearly enough to overcome their second quarter collapse.
The Knicks and Magic will play on Saturday December 13 in Las Vegas to earn the right to represent the Eastern Conference in the NBA Cup Championship Game.
Labels: Desmond Bane, Jalen Brunson, Miami Heat, NBA Cup, New York Knicks, Orlando Magic, Toronto Raptors
posted by David Friedman @ 12:51 AM
Thunder Dominate NBA Cup Play--and Everything Else
The Oklahoma City Thunder lost to the Milwaukee Bucks in the 2024 NBA Cup Championship Game, but the Thunder have rolled since then, setting the NBA's single season point differential record (12.9 ppg) while going 68-14 before defeating the Indiana Pacers in the 2025 NBA Finals. The Thunder currently have a league-leading 21-1 record with an incredible 15.3 ppg point differential. Jalen Williams, the Thunder's second best player behind Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, has appeared in just three of the Thunder's 22 games, and other key Thunder players--including Lu Dort, Alex Caruso, and Aaron Wiggins--have missed significant time as well.
The Thunder seem to be well on their way to not only winning 70-plus regular season games but also becoming the first repeat champion since the 2018 Golden State Warriors--but before the NBA playoffs, the basketball gods (also known as NBA Commissioner Adam Silver) have placed the NBA Cup. The Thunder are dominating the NBA Cup even more decisively than they are dominating the regular season overall; they went 4-0 in NBA Cup group play with an 18.8 ppg point differential, finishing first in West Group A to set up a quarterfinal game versus the Phoenix Suns on December 10. The winner of that game will face the winner of the December 10 game featuring the L.A. Lakers and the San Antonio Spurs. The Lakers have the second best overall record in the Western Conference (15-5), followed by the Houston Rockets (13-5), San Antonio Spurs (14-6), and Denver Nuggets (14-6). The Suns are seventh with a 13-9 record.
The Thunder beat the Suns 123-119 on November 28 as Williams made his season debut with 11 points on 3-12 field goal shooting. The Suns have played surprisingly well this season, but Williams has looked better in each game that he has played so far and the Thunder's victory margin has increased in each of those games, so the Thunder should beat the Suns to advance to the semifinals.
Only four of the Lakers' 15 wins are against teams that currently have winning records, so it will be interesting to see how the Lakers fare against tougher competition. The Lakers beat the Spurs 118-116 on November 5, but the Lakers have given up at least 118 points in four of their past five games and I expect the Spurs to win a close, high scoring game to earn a matchup with the Thunder.
The Thunder have yet to play the Spurs this season, but if they play in the semifinals I predict that the Thunder will win by at least 10 points.
In the Eastern Conference, the Orlando Magic and Toronto Raptors each went 4-0 in NBA Cup group play but the Magic earned the top seed because they had a better NBA Cup point differential (+64 compared to +55)--and they achieved that primarily by drilling the Philadelphia 76ers 144-103 on November 25. The Detroit Pistons have the best record (17-4) in the Eastern
Conference and the second best record in the league behind the Thunder, but they went 2-2 in NBA Cup group play and failed to advance to the
quarterfinals. The Cleveland Cavaliers had the Eastern Conference's best
record last season (64-18) but they are just 13-9 this season,
including 2-2 in NBA Cup group play.
The Magic are currently fifth overall in the Eastern Conference with a 13-8 record, and they will face the Miami Heat (14-7 overall, 3-1 in NBA Cup group play) in the NBA Cup quarterfinals on December 9. Orlando beat Miami 125-121 on October 22 in the season opener for both teams. The Magic lost their next four games, but they have won their last three games and six of their last seven; the Heat have also played very well recently, winning seven of their last eight games. I expect Orlando to beat Miami in a close game to advance to the NBA Cup semifinals. The other Eastern Conference quarterfinals matchup features Toronto versus the New York Knicks (13-7 overall, 3-1 in NBA Cup group play). The 15-7 Raptors are one of the league's early season surprises, but they have feasted on a weak schedule loaded with sub-.500 teams, and they lost to the Knicks 116-94 on November 30. I predict that the Knicks will beat the Raptors by double digits.
The Magic have already beaten the Knicks twice this season (124-107 on November 12, and 133-121 on November 22), and if they face each other in the semifinals I expect the Magic to win again.
The Thunder have not played the Magic this season, but if they meet in the NBA Cup Championship Game then I expect the Thunder to win.
The NBA Cup seems to be here to stay, so anyone covering the NBA is obligated to discuss it, but I still consider it to be a flawed concept, and in 2023 I pointed out the NBA Cup's two major drawbacks:
There are at least two drawbacks with the current NBA Cup format: (1)
the use of point differential as the first tiebreaker in Group Play
resulted in farcical situations during which teams ran up the score, and
(2) there will be quirky scheduling this week for the teams that did
not qualify for knockout round play. Regarding the first drawback, I am
all for players and teams playing hard from opening tip to final buzzer,
but intentionally running up the score in the waning moments of a
blowout looks silly and renders those individual and team statistics
meaningless: how many more points would the great teams and players of
the past have scored if teams ran up the score instead of putting in the
reserves? Regarding the second drawback, if a fan wants to see a
particular visiting player or team how is he supposed to plan in advance
for a week in which the schedule is dotted with "TBD"?
The NBA has done nothing to fix either drawback, so we continue to see inflated statistics from blowout games along with a schedule that is frustrating and confounding for fans who are trying to make plans to see specific players or teams.
The long term historical significance of the NBA Cup is unclear, but thus far NBA Cup success has not yet consistently translated to NBA playoff success. The L.A. Lakers defeated the Indiana Pacers in the 2023 NBA Cup Championship Game, but the Lakers finished the season as the eighth seeded team in the Western Conference before losing 4-1 to the Denver Nuggets in the first round. The Pacers had the same record as the Lakers (47-35) but finished sixth in the weaker Eastern Conference and then advanced to the Eastern Conference Finals before being swept by the Boston Celtics, who went on to capture the NBA title. The Milwaukee Bucks finished fifth in the Eastern Conference and lost in the first round of the 2025 playoffs after winning the 2024 NBA Cup. So far, the 2024-25 Thunder are the only NBA Cup Championship Game participant that has reached the NBA Finals.
Labels: L.A. Lakers, Miami Heat, New York Knicks, Oklahoma City Thunder, Orlando Magic, Phoenix Suns, San Antonio Spurs, Toronto Raptors
posted by David Friedman @ 5:03 PM
Warriors Hope to See "Playoff Jimmy" Instead of Disinterested Jimmy
Jimmy Butler won his power struggle with the Miami Heat, forcing his way out and receiving a two year, $112 million contract extension from the Golden State Warriors that more than covers the roughly $6 million of salary that he lost after being suspended three times this season by the Heat. The Heat sent Butler, two second round draft picks, and cash considerations to the Warriors in exchange for Kyle Anderson, Davion Mitchell, Andrew Wiggins, and a first round draft pick. Several other teams participated in the deal as well. The Toronto Raptors received P.J. Tucker from the Utah Jazz, plus a second round draft pick and cash considerations from the Heat. The Detroit Pistons received Dennis Schroder from the Jazz via the Warriors, and they also received Lindy Waters III and a 2031 second round pick via the Warriors. The Jazz received K.J. Martin from the Pistons via the Philadelphia 76ers, Josh Richardson via the Heat, two second round draft picks, and cash considerations from the Heat.
Most of these moves will be remembered as bookkeeping maneuvers facilitating Butler's departure from Miami in exchange for three players plus a first round draft pick. In my analysis of the shocking Luka Doncic-Anthony Davis trade, I wrote, "The tried and true template for evaluating an NBA trade is to look at
which team received the best player, while understanding that size matters in the NBA and that age also matters." Butler has earned six All-Star selections, five All-NBA Team selections, and five All-Defensive Team selections while also winning the 2023 Larry Bird Eastern Conference Finals MVP; he has more accolades, accomplishments, and honors than all of the other players in this deal combined. Butler is 35 years old, but he has been reasonably productive this season (17.0 ppg, 5.2 rpg, 4.8 apg, a career-high .540 FG%). Wiggins, the only other player in the deal who made the All-Star team (2022), is almost 30 years old. He was a vital contributor to Golden State's 2022 championship team, but he has been inconsistent (and often unavailable) since 2022.
The Warriors are the clear winners of this trade based on the best player criterion. Size is not a factor in this trade, as none of the players are taller than 6-9 or power players in the paint, but age is a factor worth considering. Butler is five years older than Wiggins, and four years older than Anderson, Schroder and Richardson. Other than the 39 year old Tucker, there is a good chance that every rotation player included in this trade has more years left in the league than Butler does. Age matters little to the win-or-bust Warriors, but the Heat did the best that they could to obtain players who can be in their rotation for the next several years (or who are viable enough to be packaged for other rotation players or draft picks)--and they did well to obtain anything of value for an aging, disgruntled player who wears out his welcome everywhere he goes.
After the trade, Butler delivered a brief video message to Warriors'
fans, concluding with these bold words: "Championship coming soon." Talk is cheap, but $112 million is not cheap for a 35 year old who has never been durable, has never made the All-NBA First Team, and has never finished higher than 10th in regular season MVP voting.
The "Playoff Jimmy" nickname is primarily based on three extended Miami
playoff runs (2020 NBA Finals, 2022 Eastern Conference Finals, 2023
Eastern Conference Finals), but Butler averaged just 14.5 ppg on .297 field goal
shooting when the Bucks swept the Heat in the first round in 2021, and
he shot .451 from the field or worse in his six playoff appearances with
Chicago, Minnesota, and Philadelphia. Butler missed the 2024 playoffs
due to injury, and his comment after the playoffs that the Heat would
have beaten Boston if he had played earned a stern rebuke from Heat
President Pat Riley, who bluntly stated that players who don't
participate should not talk. That may not have been the end of Butler's positive relationship with the Heat, but it seems like it was the beginning of the end, because Riley's public censure of Butler reflected Riley's position that Butler is not available enough to be worth a max contract extension.
It is possible that Butler will play with renewed energy and vigor for the Warriors after receiving the contract extension that the Heat refused to give him, but it is also possible that now that he got paid he will be satisfied and unmotivated. He built a mythology about himself that he is all about the team and about winning, but the way that he forced Miami to trade him demonstrated that he is all about flexing his power for personal gain. Butler has not played in more than 65 games in a season since 2016-17, when he was 27; it is unlikely that he will suddenly become more durable or more reliable, so the Warriors should expect to get--at best--130 regular season games or less from Butler out of a possible 164 in the next two seasons.
Published reports indicate that the Warriors preferred to bring back Kevin Durant for a second tour of duty instead of acquiring Butler, but Durant balked. It is no secret that Durant left the Warriors to get away from the volatile Draymond Green, and it is reasonable to assume that his refusal to return to the Bay Area is primarily--if not exclusively--based on his disinclination to team up again with Mr. "Triple Single." The Athletic recently ranked Green as the 100th greatest NBA player of all-time, which is high--and undeserved--praise for a player sporting career averages of 8.7 ppg, 6.9 rpg, and 5.6 apg with shooting splits of .450/.322/.707 (The Athletic ranked Butler 99th all-time, which seems a bit too high, though I agree with ranking Butler ahead of Green). There is no doubt that Green contributed playmaking and defense to the Warriors' four most recent championship teams, but he was fortunate to play alongside three legitimate Hall of Famers: Kevin Durant, Stephen Curry, and Klay Thompson. When Green took the court for the 2019-20 Warriors without those three great players, the whole world saw what Green is all about as he averaged 8.0 ppg on .389 field goal shooting along with 6.2 rpg and 6.2 apg for a 15-50 team. Green is a high level role player, not an all-time great player; separate him from great players, and he has little impact on winning (which does not change the fact that he has some impact on winning when he is surrounded by great players).
When people talk about Green's role on championship teams they should also talk about his role on costing the Warriors opportunities to win other championships as a result of his out of control behavior leading to suspensions and leading to Durant's departure/refusal to return. It will be interesting to see how history judges the Warriors' decision to hold onto Green while losing Durant, Thompson, and other players. Perhaps there is no market for Green's services outside of Golden State, but if there is any market then the Warriors should have gotten rid of Green and kept (or at least brought back) Durant.
Prior to Butler's arrival, the Warriors were fighting to stay above .500 and earn a spot in the Play-In Tournament. If all goes well, Butler could help the Warriors sneak into the playoffs, but it is difficult to picture this team winning a playoff series against any of the Western Conference's top four teams. It will be interesting to observe the Butler-Green chemistry, particularly if the Warriors continue to hover around .500. Neither player is shy about expressing his opinions.
Butler seemed poised to win
the unofficial prize for self-centered inflation of his importance/worth
after quitting on his team and pouting about losing his "joy" because of
merely being paid close to $50 million per year to dribble a basketball, but then Schroder opened his mouth and claimed the prize all for himself. Schroder, a minor figure in the multi-team deal, will make $13 million
this season. He is scoring 14.4 ppg on .418 field goal shooting this season, numbers
that are in line with his career averages, and he is very dissatisfied
with his lot in life, whining that the way that NBA teams trade
players is equivalent to "modern slavery." Declaring that NBA players are slaves is so wildly delusional that
it almost defies description. There are millions of people in the world
who are struggling to obtain enough food to eat and who are deprived of
basic human rights; those people are suffering modern slavery, and they would gladly trade places with Schroder. What Schroder fails to acknowledge is that--unlike a slave--he has the freedom to choose a different job, to choose where he lives, and even to make idiotic public statements without fear of repercussions from the government or his employer.
Labels: Andrew Wiggins, Dennis Schroder, Detroit Pistons, Golden State Warriors, Jimmy Butler, Kyle Anderson, Miami Heat, P.J. Tucker, Toronto Raptors, Utah Jazz
posted by David Friedman @ 10:05 AM
The 2023 NBA Play-In Tournament: Grab Your Popcorn and Savor the Mediocrity!
The 2023 NBA Play-In Tournament features the seventh seeded teams in the Eastern and Western Conferences (Miami Heat and L.A. Lakers respectively) facing the eighth seeded teams in the Eastern and Western Conferences (Atlanta Hawks and Minnesota Timberwolves respectively). Each of the winners of those two games qualifies for the playoffs as the seventh seeded team in that conference, and will face the second seeded team in that conference in a seven game first round playoff series. Each of the losers of those two games will get a second chance to qualify for the playoffs by facing the winner of the battle between the ninth seeded teams in the Eastern and Western Conferences (Toronto Raptors and New Orleans Pelicans respectively) versus the 10th seeded teams in the Eastern and Western Conferences (Chicago Bulls and Oklahoma City Thunder respectively), while the losers of the games featuring the ninth and 10th seeded teams are eliminated.
The NBA began using the Play-In Tournament in this format in 2021. The seventh seeded team has yet to lose a game in either conference, and the ninth seeded team has yet to lose to the 10th seeded team. The ninth seeded team has defeated the eighth seeded team three times in four games. No team that qualified for the NBA playoffs via the Play-In Tournament has extended a playoff series to seven games, much less actually win a playoff series.
In short, the Play-In Tournament is a showcase for teams that spent 82 regular season games proving their mediocrity, and no Play-In Tournament team has proven to be anything other than mediocre.
In the Eastern Conference, I predict that Miami will defeat Atlanta, and Toronto will defeat Chicago. Then, Toronto will defeat Atlanta to earn the eighth seed. The Miami Heat not only enjoy homecourt advantage, but the Heat have the same core players who reached the 2022 Eastern Conference Finals. The Heat have struggled with injuries and uncharacteristic inconsistency this season, but they have a better and deeper team than the Hawks. If there is a Play-In Tournament team that could actually win a playoff series--a doubtful proposition, as noted above--the Heat are that team. The Raptors have endured a disappointing season, but they should be able to win two games to salvage this campaign by at least earning a spot in the playoffs. The Atlanta Hawks' run to the 2021 Eastern Conference Finals was a fluke: they went 41-41 that season, and followed that up with records of 43-39 and 41-41 the past two seasons while cycling through four coaches since 2020.
In the Western Conference, I predict that the L.A. Lakers will defeat Minnesota, and New Orleans will defeat Oklahoma City. Then, New Orleans will defeat Minnesota to earn the eighth seed. The media narrative that it is an accomplishment for the Lakers to earn a spot in the Play-In Tournament is baffling; the Lakers feature two players selected to the NBA's 75th Anniversary Team: failing to qualify for the playoffs outright is embarrassing, and losing in the Play-In Tournament should be considered unacceptable. The Utah Jazz' "B" team eviscerated the Lakers in the paint by a 76-50 margin in the last game of the regular season with playoff positioning on the line for the Lakers, putting a dent in the notion that the Lakers have become some kind of defensive juggernaut since the trade deadline--but the Lakers won the game, mainly because of some improbable three point marksmanship (8-14) from LeBron James, who posted one of the lowest three point shooting percentages of his career this season, and who made at least five three pointers in a game just five other times all season long. The Lakers have performed better recently because Anthony Davis has been healthy and thus has been active at both ends of the court, but the Lakers are what their overall record suggest that they are: at best, a lower tier playoff team.
The Minnesota Timberwolves have never been known for their collective basketball IQ--to put it charitably--but their multiple meltdowns during the last game of the season are as baffling as they are damaging: Rudy Gobert was sent home at halftime after punching teammate Kyle Anderson, and Jaden McDaniels fractured his hand by punching a wall. Somehow, the Timberwolves still beat the Pelicans, though perhaps that is not shocking considering that the Timberwolves often played better this season without Gobert. McDaniels is likely out for whatever remains of the Timberwolves' season, while Gobert's status has yet to be publicly determined.
If James cannot lead the Lakers to a home win against the dysfunctional Timberwolves, even his staunchest allies in the press corps will have a difficult time buying whatever excuses he offers.
The Pelicans are talented and scrappy even without the perpetually
injured Zion Williamson, and I like their chances to beat the
Timberwolves in a rematch of the regular season finale.
The NBA does not include Play-In Tournament statistics with either their regular season statistics or their playoff statistics, which reinforces the reality that these games are less about competition than about an opportunity to make more money--and we know that the NBA cares about profits more than anything else. For the record, in 2021 I correctly picked three of the four Play-In Tournament qualifiers (Boston, Washington, L.A. Lakers), and in 2022 I correctly picked three of the four Play-In Tournament qualifiers (Atlanta, Brooklyn, Minnesota); to review my previous Play-Tournament predictions and commentary, check out the links below.
Previous Play-In Tournament Articles:
2022
The NBA is (Usually) Fantastic (Except When Teams Bench Their Starters for the Season's Last Game) (April 11, 2022)
Nets Clinch Seventh Seed After Outlasting Cavaliers, 115-108 (April 12, 2022)
Notes on the 2022 NBA Play-In Tournament (April 14, 2022)
2021
Thoughts on the NBA's Play-In Tournament (May 17, 2021)
Nine Versus Ten Does Not Add Up to Fantastic Basketball (May 20, 2021)
Labels: Atlanta Hawks, Chicago Bulls, L.A. Lakers, Miami Heat, Minnesota Timberwolves, New Orleans Pelicans, Oklahoma City Thunder, Play-In Tournament, Toronto Raptors
posted by David Friedman @ 1:53 AM
2022-23 Eastern Conference Preview
Midway through the 2021-22 season, many "experts" questioned if Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown could play together effectively, but the Boston Celtics ignored the noise and advanced to the NBA Finals before losing to the Golden State Warriors. The Celtics have reached the Eastern Conference Finals four times in the past six seasons, and they are poised to advance at least that far again in 2022-23, even with Coach Ime Udoka being suspended by the team for at least one full season.
However, the 2021 NBA champion Milwaukee Bucks should be considered the preseason favorites to win the Eastern Conference. Khris Middleton is healthy, and the Bucks added depth by acquiring Joe Ingles, who will miss the start of the season as he recovers from an ACL injury suffered in February 2022 when he played for the Utah Jazz. A playoff rematch of Boston versus Milwaukee would be a great series.
In the latest edition of "As the Brooklyn Nets Turn," Kevin Durant rescinded his request that the Nets either trade him or fire General Manager Sean Marks and Coach Steve Nash. If "I flexed and nobody budged" were a person, his name would be Kevin Durant; the Nets shrugged at Durant's ultimatum, dangled him in the trade market at a price that no one would likely pay for a 33 year old player who has already had a serious injury, and then waited for Durant to come to his senses: the Nets could be confident that Durant was not going to hold out, and they have all the leverage because he is under contract for a multi-year deal.
Still, even with Durant back in the fold the Nets have more questions than an attorney conducting a cross-examination of a lying witness: How many games will Kyrie Irving play? How many games will Ben Simmons play? Is Durant really content to be in Brooklyn, or is he just patiently plotting his next attempt to flee for what he hopes/perceives to be greener pastures? If the Nets were collectively focused on winning a title, they would be a reasonable choice as the favorites in the East, if not the entire league; if the Nets implode, they might struggle to make the playoffs. Right now, I see them as the East's third best team, and a tough out for Boston in the second round.
With the addition of Donovan Mitchell, the Cleveland Cavaliers have enough offensive talent combined with their defensive mindset to beat any team in a seven game series, but it remains to be seen if the Cavaliers can stay healthy, and if they can consistently play at a high level under playoff pressure.
Yes, I am aware that the Miami Heat had the best record in the East last season, and that they pushed Boston to seven games in the Eastern Conference Finals. I am also aware that the Heat only finished two games ahead of Boston, Milwaukee, and Philadelphia. Boston improved more in the offseason than Miami did. When healthy, Milwaukee has a better team than Miami. I am not sure that Philadelphia will be better than Miami but it will probably be close, and I definitely think that Donovan Mitchell plus improved health will be worth nine games in the standings for Cleveland.
The Philadelphia 76ers have a decent amount of talent, but they have James Harden in a major role, and no team is going to win a title with James Harden in a major role--I've been saying it for a decade, I've been right, and I will keep saying it. Also, Joel Embiid has yet to prove that he can stay healthy enough to lead the 76ers past the second round.
The Toronto Raptors are very well-coached and they have some good young players, so they can be a spoiler if things break right for them and/or wrong for someone else, but it is difficult to picture a scenario in which they win the East or even reach the Eastern Conference Finals.
Listed below are the eight teams that I expect to qualify for the Eastern
Conference playoffs, ranked based on their likelihood of advancing to the NBA
Finals:
1) Milwaukee Bucks: Khris Middleton's knee injury derailed Milwuakee's bid to repeat as NBA champions. The Bucks pushed the Celtics to seven games in the second round even without Middleton and--while taking nothing away from the Celtics--it is reasonable to say that a healthy Middleton would have been worth one more Milwaukee win in that series.
Giannis Antetokounmpo won the regular season MVP in 2019 and 2020 before capturing the 2021 Finals MVP. Regardless of who wins those individual trophies in a given season, Antetokounmpo has established himself as the league's best player: he is an elite scorer, rebounder, passer, and defender, he does not take nights off, and there is zero drama surrounding him. No other player who is mentioned in the best player conversation checks off every one of those boxes.
It is fascinating that the Clown (also known as Gilbert Arenas) and the Flailing Flopper (also known as James Harden) have both publicly mocked Antetokounmpo for supposedly lacking all-around basketball skills and work ethic. Arenas and Harden have combined to produce 24 seasons without a championship--and if Harden had not ridden the coattails of Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook to the 2012 NBA Finals then Arenas and Harden would also have combined for nearly a quarter century of not reaching the NBA Finals without buying a ticket. The concept of staying quiet and letting people just assume that you are a fool as opposed to opening your mouth and removing any doubt sailed over the heads of Arenas and Harden just like their errant shots sailed past the basket during their playoff appearances.
Last season, Antetokounmpo averaged a career-high 29.9 ppg (second in the NBA), 11.6 rpg (sixth), and 5.8 apg while shooting .553 from the field. He led the NBA in playoff scoring (31.7 ppg) while averaging 14.2 rpg and 6.8 apg. He is just 27 years old, so he may not have even reached his peak yet!
If Antetokounmpo stays healthy and has even just a decent supporting cast around him, he will win multiple championships and he will establish himself as the best player of the 2020s.
2) Boston Celtics: The popular notion that the Celtics could not win a title with Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown as their two best players makes no sense. Tatum and Brown are both versatile two-way players who have superior size, skills, and athleticism. If Tatum is not already an MVP-level player then he is not far behind, and Brown is not far behind him. I did not foresee the Celtics as a championship contender last season not because of their star duo but rather because I was skeptical about the team's supporting cast--but Marcus Smart, Al Horford, Robert Williams, and Grant Williams played very well.
The addition of Malcolm Brogdon bolsters an already deep team, but the season-ending injury suffered by new acquisition Danilo Gallinari is unfortunate.
The Celtics are good enough to return to the NBA Finals, but if the Bucks are healthy then I expect the Bucks to prevail in what should be an electrifying Eastern Conference Finals.
It is too soon to say how the Celtics will be impacted by the elevation of assistant coach Joe Mazzulla to head coach while Ime Udoka serves a suspension of at least one season for violating multiple team rules, but I believe that because Mazzulla was promoted from within the team the transition will be smoother than some "experts" seem to expect; he is familiar with the players, and the players are familiar with him.
3) Brooklyn Nets: It is often difficult to understand what Kevin Durant is thinking or why seems to be perpetually dissatisfied or why he says some of the things he says--but when he steps on the court he is all business and he remains one of the best players in the league. The first round sweep at the hands of a superior Boston team was not one of the highlights of Durant's career, but that was also not a surprising end to a disjointed season during which Durant's co-stars abandoned him for a variety of reasons/excuses.
The Nets went 36-19 during the regular season when Durant played, and he averaged 29.9 ppg, 7.4 rpg, and 6.4 apg with shooting splits of .518/.383/.910. Durant will be 34 when the season begins and he has already recovered from one serious injury, but there is no reason to think that he does not have at least one more MVP-level season left.
Kyrie Irving was brilliant when he played (27.4 ppg, 5.8 apg) but he only played in 29 games. It is not clear if being a great basketball player is the most important thing to him, and there is a decent amount of evidence suggesting that basketball is not his top priority.
Ben Simmons did not play in a single game for the Nets after they acquired him in a trade for overrated malcontent James Harden. Simmons can guard any position, and he is a superior playmaker and rebounder. His limitations as a shooter are well-documented, but if he averages 16-8-8 then he will have more than done his part to put the Nets in position to contend. There are questions about his mental health and about his balky back, but in the context of this preview the hope and assumption is that he will be healthy and productive.
When the Nets are healthy and whole they can be a dynamic offensive team. Their weaknesses are size, defense, and rebounding. Simmons checks off all three of those important boxes. From a talent standpoint, this team at full strength could beat any team in the league in a seven game series--but the intangibles (including coaching, chemistry, mindset) suggest that the Nets will not have quite enough to beat the Bucks or Celtics in a seven game series.
4) Cleveland Cavaliers: Despite numerous injuries, the Cavaliers finished as an elite defensive team (fifth in points allowed, eighth in defensive field goal percentage). They are a pesky, scrappy, and well-coached team. The missing links were health and offensive efficiency. The addition of Donovan Mitchell will boost Cleveland's offense, because Mitchell can create offense for himself and for others. If the Cavaliers are reasonably healthy then they will be very dangerous. The only thing that they lack (other than playoff experience together as a group) is a legit superstar/MVP caliber player. Milwaukee has Antetokounmpo, Boston has Tatum, and Brooklyn has Durant. Star power matters, so it will take a lot for Cleveland to not just knock off one of the top three teams but to beat two of them in a seven game series, which is what it may take to reach the NBA Finals.
5) Miami Heat: The Heat had a remarkable regular season. Each of their top four players in minutes per game (Jimmy Butler, Kyle Lowry, Tyler Herro, and Bam Adebayo) missed at least 16 games, but the Heat battled their way to the East's best record. They are not a big team nor do they rebound very well, but they ranked fourth in points allowed and fourth in defensive field goal percentage. They do not attempt a large number of three pointers (ranking 14th in that category), but they led the league in three point field goal percentage (.379)--and they led the league in three point field percentage defense. They are disciplined, they are well-conditioned, and they don't beat themselves.
In short, Erik Spoelstra is a great coach, and Pat Riley is a great organizational leader; Riley is the only executive who did not roll over for LeBron James, and it is not a coincidence that James won more titles (two) in Miami than he has anywhere else despite his Miami stint being shorter than his tenure with Cleveland or L.A.
So why am I listing Miami as the fifth best team in the East? Boston was better last season, and improved more in the offseason. Healthy Milwaukee is better than Miami, as is healthy Brooklyn. I may be reaching a bit with Cleveland, and I would not be shocked if Miami finishes fourth and Cleveland finishes fifth. The point is that Milwaukee, Boston, and Brooklyn are a cut above teams 4-6.
6) Philadelphia 76ers: Somebody already made money with an absurdly titled book about how the 76ers were built--the 76ers most assuredly have not "tanked to the top"-- and in 10 years or less somebody will make money writing about how the Daryl Morey/Joel Embiid/James Harden 76ers "could've/should've" won an NBA title. Maybe Morey will even write the preface to that book and assert that if you look at the "advanced basketball statistics" then not only is Harden a better scorer than Michael Jordan but the 76ers actually had the best team even though they did not win a championship.
Embiid is an MVP-caliber player. Harden is an All-Star caliber player. Tyrese Maxey is developing into a very good player, and Tobias Harris is an underrated player who does not seek the limelight. Doc Rivers is a championship coach.
The parts may seem to be there for a championship run, but the whole is much less than the sum of the parts. Embiid is never in top physical condition, and he lacks something as a leader. Harden is the most overrated player of the past 10 years, and one of the most overrated players in NBA history--yes, when you are an All-Star level player but somehow have a trophy case containing an MVP and a 75th Anniversary Team jacket then you are both good and vastly overrated. Maxey and Harris are good, but the other contenders have third and fourth options who are just as good, if not better.
It is interesting that Morey is filling out the roster by making Philadelphia into Houston East; nothing against P.J. Tucker and Danuel House Jr., but considering Houston's playoff flameouts during the Morey/Harden era I am not sure that bringing that band back together is the way to go. The 76ers need young, energetic two-way players who can step up when Embiid is fatigued/injured and when Harden disappears. Tucker and House Jr. are solid supporting players, but when Embiid and/or Harden inevitably fade they will not be able to make enough of a difference. Brooklyn-Philadelphia could be an interesting first round series in terms of the Harden/Simmons subplots, but if Brooklyn is whole the games themselves will be less competitive than some may expect.
7) Toronto Raptors: If Cleveland-Miami-Philadelphia represent the second tier in the East, then Toronto stands atop the third tier. The Raptors do not have a superstar, but they have several very good two-way players who are interchangeable in terms of size and skill set, plus a pair of small bulldog guards (Fred VanVleet and Gary Trent Jr.) who give no quarter. It will be interesting to see what the ceiling is for Scottie Barnes. If he can develop into an MVP level player then the Raptors could be a contender, but even if that happens it is not likely to happen this season.
The coaching of Nick Nurse is a major advantage for the Raptors. There are few, if any, games in which the Raptors will be outprepared or outschemed.
This is a team that could put a scare into one of the top teams in the first round before losing in six or seven games.
8) Atlanta Hawks: Before last season, I expressed skepticism that the Hawks are really an elite team even though they reached the 2021 Eastern Conference Finals. Sure enough, the Hawks plummeted back to Earth last season. The addition of Dejounte Murray improves Atlanta's size, talent, and versatility, but has anyone noticed that despite all of his efforts he could not even lift San Antonio to the playoffs for the past three seasons? Yes, the Hawks are better, but so are several other teams in the East. The Hawks were first round fodder in 2022, and they figure to be first round fodder in 2023. They score a lot, but they do not rebound or defend well. This is basically Portland East, with Trae Young playing the role of Damian Lillard. Lillard has reached the Western Conference Finals once in a 10 year career, and Young is on the same trajectory unless/until the Hawks add size, talent, and a defensive mentality.
The
apparent permanent implementation of the Play-In Tournament means that
the teams that finish the regular season in the top eight may not
necessarily qualify for the playoffs. The teams ranked seventh through
10th will participate in the Play-In Tournament. The above eight teams are the teams that I predict will qualify for the
playoffs, regardless of what the final regular season standings are.
The Chicago Bulls earned the sixth seed last season before losing 4-1 to Milwaukee in the first round. The Bulls ranked third in field goal percentage but just 13th in scoring, 16th in points allowed, 26th in defensive field goal percentage, and 28th in rebounding. Offseason additions Goran Dragic and Andre Drummond do not figure to move the needle significantly, and the improvement of several teams will result in Chicago dropping out of the top eight. Bulls' fans might argue that a rash of injuries held the team back, and that good health will lift the Bulls higher in the standings; we shall see if the Bulls can stay healthy, and if that happens then we will see how good this team really is. The recent report that Lonzo Ball will be out indefinitely after knee surgery is bad news for the Bulls.
The New York Knicks took a step backward in the 2022 season after reaching the first round of the 2021 playoffs. The addition of Jalen Brunson should help, but there are good reasons to question if Julius Randle can be the best player on a team that makes much noise in the playoffs. The Bulls and Knicks will likely finish in the top 10 before getting eliminated in the Play-In Tournament.
The Charlotte Hornets went 43-39 with a good offense (fourth in scoring, 11th in field goal percentage) and below average defense (20th in defensive field goal percentage, 25th in points allowed). They did not upgrade their roster in the offseason, and thus they figure to slide down in the standings.
The Detroit Pistons are a young team that does not defend well. That is not a recipe for success.
In my 2021-22 Eastern Conference Preview, I declared, "The 'stat gurus' and the numerous media members who consistently belittle and berate Russell Westbrook may have playoff expectations for the Washington Wizards, but history and logic indicate that teams that lose an MVP-caliber player tend to regress, usually significantly. The Washington Wizards fought their way into the Play-In Tournament last
season largely because of Westbrook's MVP caliber play down the
stretch. Without Westbrook, this team is headed to the Draft Lottery."
Sure enough, after getting rid of Westbrook--the media's favorite scapegoat--the Wizards dropped from being a playoff team in 2021 to having the 12th best record in the 15 team Eastern Conference in 2022. They did not add enough talent in the offseason to move up in the standings.
In the first season of Rick Carlisle's second stint as coach of the Indiana Pacers, the Pacers went 25-57, their worst winning percentage (.305) since 1984-85 (22-60, .268). The Pacers traded away Malcolm Brogdon, and they lost T.J. Warren to free agency. Carlisle is the team's fourth coach in the past seven years, and it is fair to say that the Pacers are in full rebuild mode, which hopefully will not devolve into unadulterated tanking.
The Orlando Magic are tanking. I wonder when the tanking teams will take their "advanced basketball statistics" to the natural conclusion, and start shooting at the wrong basket? After all, if losing as many games as possible to get high draft picks is supposedly a brilliant strategy then wouldn't it make sense to score points for the other team to ensure a loss?
**********
Note:
I correctly picked six of the eight 2022 Eastern Conference playoff teams. Here are
my statistics for previous seasons:
2021: 6/8
2020: 7/8
2019: 6/8
2018: 6/8
2017: 5/8
2016: 5/8
2015: 5/8
2014: 6/8
2013: 7/8
2012: 8/8
2011: 5/8
2010: 6/8
2009: 6/8
2008: 5/8
2007: 7/8
2006: 6/8
2006-2022 Total: 102/136 (.750)
Labels: Atlanta Hawks, Boston Celtics, Brooklyn Nets, Cleveland Cavaliers, Miami Heat, Milwaukee Bucks, Philadelphia 76ers, Toronto Raptors
posted by David Friedman @ 9:40 PM
James Harden's "Concert Tour" Heads to Toronto for Game Six
No NBA team has ever blown a 3-0 lead, but if any team is built to make such history that team is the Philadelphia 76ers, whose 103-88 loss to Toronto at home on Monday night turned what had only recently been a 3-0 lead into a 3-2 lead as the series shifts to Toronto for game six.
Philadelphia Coach Doc Rivers led the Boston Celtics to the 2008 championship and he has accomplished a lot during his career, but he is also the only coach in pro basketball history whose teams have squandered three 3-1 leads.
Joel Embiid's brief and undistinguished playoff career has featured him being out of shape and/or injured, and he has never advanced past the second round. He has not been the same in this series since he tore a ligament in his right thumb.
James Harden is perhaps the worst playoff choker ever and--as Jalen Rose so aptly put it--he has been on a "concert tour" since joining the 76ers: tour dates so far in the Toronto series include 3/9, 4/11, 5/17, 6/17, 7/13. One more March, April, May, or June concert tour date--those are Harden's game by game field goal percentages (placed in "calendar" order, not game to game order), in case you did not get Rose's joke--will go a long way to pushing this series to a seventh game, which could be the grand finale for Harden and the 76ers.
The Raptors enjoy matchup advantages versus the 76ers; that--plus the playoff history noted above--is why I picked the Raptors to win the series. The 76ers are at full strength other than Embiid, while the Raptors played game five without All-Star guard Fred VanVleet, and at times they have also been without the services of 2022 Rookie of the Year Scottie Barnes and potent scorer/scrappy defender Gary Trent Jr., but in the past two games the Raptors have begun exploiting their matchup advantages (they actually began doing so in game three, but Embiid bailed out the 76ers with a game-winning three pointer at the end of overtime).
The percentages may still suggest that Toronto will win game six at home before the 76ers right the ship to win the seventh game in Philadelphia--but if this series goes back to Philadelphia tied 3-3 there will be much more pressure on the 76ers than on the Raptors, because the 76ers are supposedly a title contender while no one outside of the Raptors' locker room thinks that the Raptors are a title contender this season. One of my biggest wishes since Harden sulked his way out of Brooklyn was for him to play in a seventh game as a 76er, so that we can all see once again what Daryl Morey's greatest scorer of all-time does when everything is on the line.
Labels: Jalen Rose, James Harden, Philadelphia 76ers, Toronto Raptors
posted by David Friedman @ 2:00 AM
