20 Second Timeout

Raptors Mount Late Comeback, Tie Series With Cavaliers 2-2

The Cleveland Cavaliers built a nine point second quarter lead and were ahead 84-76 with 4:30 remaining in the fourth quarter before the Toronto Raptors rallied to win 93-89 and tie this first round series 2-2. The Raptors shot just 31-97 (.320) from the field but the Cavaliers shot almost as poorly (32-87, .368) while getting outrebounded 59-56 and losing the turnover battle 17-11. The Raptors compensated for their abysmal three point field goal shooting (4-30, .133) by outscoring the Cavaliers 50-38 in the paint while also topping the Cavaliers in second chance points 19-7 and fast break points 15-10.

Scottie Barnes and Brandon Ingram each scored a game-high 23 points to lead the Raptors, while R.J. Barrett added 18 points and Collin Murray-Boyles contributed 15 points plus a team-high 10 rebounds off of the bench. Barnes--who has been the best player in the series (series-high 25.8 ppg, series-high 7.3 apg, 4.8 rpg, 1.3 bpg, 1.0 spg, .523 FG%)--had an excellent floor game with nine rebounds, six assists, three blocked shots, and one steal.

Donovan Mitchell paced the Cavaliers with 20 points, but he shot 6-24 from the field. James Harden had 19 points and a team-high eight assists, but he had a game-high seven turnovers, three more than any other player.

The Raptors deserve full credit for playing hard and figuring out how to win a must-win game, but the big picture focus should be on the Cavaliers, who have been widely touted as a championship contender since acquiring Harden.   

The first half featured some mind-numbingly bad, unwatchable basketball as Toronto scored 38 points on 15-54 (.278) field goal shooting while Cleveland managed only 36 points on 15-45 (.333) field goal shooting. If you enjoy watching high volume, low accuracy three point shooting then the first half was heaven for you as the teams combined to shoot 7-39 (.179) from beyond the arc. ESPN's Ernie Johnson referenced the old movie "The Gang That Couldn't Shoot Straight" to open the halftime show. There is no truth to the rumor that during halftime the NBA's Board of Governors and the league's broadcast partners tried to enact a rules change stipulating that not only would the second half not be played but that both teams would be summarily eliminated from the playoffs.   

I love good defense, but this game was more about teams being unable to make three pointers and being unwilling to try two pointers then it was about good defense. 

During the third quarter, the teams stumbled to a 22-22 tie while combining to shoot 1-18 (.056) from three point range, which meant that the Raptors clung to a 60-58 lead heading into a fourth quarter that would determine whether the Raptors would tie the series 2-2 or fall into a 3-1 hole that is usually fatal. After Mitchell hit two free throws at the 4:55 mark, the Cavaliers led 84-76 as this rock fight disguised as a basketball game lurched toward its conclusion, but the Raptors closed the game with a 17-5 run to stay alive as the series shifts back to Cleveland for game five on Wednesday.

Shockingly, both teams shot well in the final stanza, with Toronto shooting 11-22 (.500) from the field and Cleveland nearly matching that with 10-21 (.476) field goal shooting. What stood out and made the difference is that Harden and Mitchell combined to dominate the ball while shooting terribly. Mitchell scored 12 points but shot just 3-9 from the field, including an ill-advised off balance missed three pointer with 10 seconds remaining and the Raptors leading 90-87; the Cavaliers had enough time to quickly score a two pointer and then foul to get the ball back. The scariest thing for the Cavaliers is that "Playoff Harden" mode seemed to be activated in this game: he shot 1-4 from the field in the fourth quarter with the game on the line, and he tallied yet another "Harden" in a playoff game by having more turnovers (seven) than field goals made (six). What is most disturbing for the Cavaliers is not only the careless nature of many of Harden's turnovers but the lackadaisical way that he failed to get back on defense after committing those turnovers. In a low scoring game, such plays are huge.

Plus/minus can be noisy in small sample sizes, and this game is a great example of such noise. If you watched the whole game with understanding, then you noticed that Harden and Mitchell co-authored the defeat due to Harden's reckless ballhandling and terrible transition defense combined with Mitchell's poor shooting and questionable shot selection. Mitchell's -8 plus/minus number reflects how he played, but Harden's +1 plus/minus number is surprising, so I dug into that to try to figure out what happened. Harden played 7:53 in the third quarter, and he somehow had a +10 plus/minus number as the teams battled to a 22-22 tie, which means his plus/minus number for the rest of the game was -9. Harden played all 12 minutes in the fourth quarter, posting a -2 plus/minus number.  

Harden's overall series numbers are solid (21.8 ppg, 6.5 apg, 3.3 rpg, .475 FG%) except for his alarming 24 turnovers (6.0 tpg), 10 more than any other player on either team. Harden has posted a "Harden" in each of the last two playoff games in this series (he had a game-high eight turnovers and five field goals made in Cleveland's 126-104 game three loss). He has logged a "Harden" four times in his last 13 playoff games, and that does not include hiswn 2-8 field goal shooting with two turnovers as the Denver Nuggets routed his L.A. Clippers 120-101 in game seven last year.

The Cavaliers are purported to be a championship contender this season, while the young Raptors are rising but are not a championship contender. The Cavaliers should win the next two games to close out the series in six games (which was my prediction in my playoff preview), but when the supposedly superior team gives away a winnable game and drags out a series anything can happen--an injury, a suspension, a fluky shot. The Cavaliers will likely not get the full "Playoff Harden" experience until the second round, but games three and four of this series provided a preview of what that will look like.

Labels: Brandon Ingram, Cleveland Cavaliers, Donovan Mitchell, James Harden, Scottie Barnes, Toronto Raptors

posted by David Friedman @ 12:02 PM

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Reflections on How Much the NBA Has Changed Since Kobe Bryant's 81 Point Game

Yesterday was the 20th anniversary of Kobe Bryant's 81 point game, which is still the highest single game scoring total in ABA/NBA history by anyone not named Wilt Chamberlain. Bryant led his L.A. Lakers to a 122-104 win over the Toronto Raptors, capping a 10 game run during which Bryant averaged 45.5 ppg; he finished the season averaging a career-high 35.4 ppg--the NBA's highest single season scoring average since Michael Jordan scored 37.1 ppg in 1986-87--to capture the first of his two scoring titles. 

Prior to Bryant's outburst versus the Raptors, there had been nine 70 point games in the NBA's 60 season history--six by Chamberlain (who still holds the single game record with 100 points), one by Elgin Baylor (71 in 1960, which was the NBA single game record before Chamberlain rewrote the record book), one by David Thompson (73 in 1978, the "non-Wilt" record for 28 years until Bryant scored 81), and one by David Robinson (71 in 1994). In the past nine years, five players have joined the 70 Point Club: Devin Booker, Donovan Mitchell, Damian Lillard, Joel Embiid, and Luka Doncic. After Embiid's 70 point game, I wrote about the NBA's recent explosion of 60 point games and 70 point games: 

The recent proliferation of 60 point games raises a question: Are we blessed to be living in an era filled with more elite scorers than pro basketball has ever seen, or do other factors explain why so many players are having 60 point games? I would argue that rules changes and style of play changes have increased scoring across the board, which leads to more 60 point games: the game is placed at a faster pace now, with less physicality, and with a vastly increased usage of the three point shot. The (over)emphasis on three point shooting has not only resulted in more scoring by three point bombers--including Curry, Harden, and Lillard--but the near-abandonment of the paint defensively has made it easier for players to drive to the hoop and score in the paint. Old school players like Julius Erving and Michael Jordan who rarely shot three pointers would put up huge scoring numbers in today's game because (1) perimeter defenders would not be allowed to touch them and (2) most teams do not focus on rim protection, which means that after Erving or Jordan beat the first defender they would have an uncontested runway for their aerial acrobatics. 

Without taking anything away from the talent level of today's top players, I would argue that the league's overall talent level is watered down by expansion and by the influx of players who played little to no college basketball. This means that the best players are able to feast on weak teams: Embiid dropped 70 on a terrible San Antonio team that emerged from tanking with a young roster that has no idea how to play winning NBA basketball. This also means that the best players are able to exploit matchup advantages even against good teams because many of the good teams lack depth: a star player who logs heavy minutes in today's NBA is going to spend some of those minutes sharing the court with vastly inferior bench players, but if you look back to the 1980s the best teams often had Hall of Famers coming off of the bench (Kevin McHale early in his career, Bobby Jones, Bob McAdoo, Bill Walton, etc.). 

Scoring 60 or 70 points is a big accomplishment in any league, but there is good reason to believe that it is easier than ever to score 60 or 70 points in the NBA.

How much has scoring and three point shooting increased in the 20 years since Bryant's 81 point game? In the 2005-06 season, NBA teams averaged 97.0 ppg. Only five teams averaged at least 100 ppg, with the "Seven Seconds or Less" Phoenix Suns leading the league with 108.4 ppg, nearly 6 ppg more than the second place Seattle SuperSonics. NBA teams averaged 16.0 three point field goal attempts per game while shooting .358 from beyond the arc. Just over 20% of the league's field goal attempts were three pointers. 

Bryant scored 81 points in a game at a time when teams often failed to score 81 points in a game; in the 2005-06 season, the Lakers scored 81 points or less in six games, the Raptors scored 81 points or less in two games, and the league's lowest scoring team (Portland) averaged just 88.8 ppg while scoring 81 points or less in 22 games.

So far this season, NBA teams are averaging 116.0 ppg, with the lowest scoring team (Brooklyn Nets) averaging 107.9 ppg. NBA teams are averaging 37.0 three point field goal attempts per game while shooting .359 from beyond the arc. More than 41% of the league's field goal attempts are three pointers. 

The rules changes and style of play changes from the past 20 years suggest that the NBA decided that fans have such short attention spans and so little appreciation for the nuances of the game that the only way to keep them interested is to transmogrify the sport from a game of ball movement and player movement featuring diverse offensive strategies into a one dimensional game during which teams jack up as many three pointers as possible; three point field goal percentages have not improved in the past 20 years, but the volume of three point shooting has more than doubled. "Stat gurus" may believe that high volume three point shooting is inherently efficient, but shooting twice as many treys at less than a .360 clip while eschewing midrange shots and shots in the paint does not add up to efficient basketball, nor does it create aesthetically pleasing basketball. 

At its best, basketball is an all-around game featuring skillful offense balanced by shrewd, physical defense. The step back move as utilized by Adrian Dantley, Larry Bird, and Dell Curry was a thing a of beauty. I used to practice it in my driveway while being careful to not take an extra step. In contrast to that technical artistry, what is called a step back move today is a travel and/or an offensive foul if basketball's rules were enforced as written. Commentators and fans scoff that old school players "had no bag" (did not have a bag of fancy ball handling moves), but the reality is that what is called a "bag" today includes traveling, carrying, palming, and flopping and flailing to bait referees into calling fouls against defensive players. No player epitomizes the NBA's emphasis on elevating offense over defense more than James Harden, who literally "traveled" through the NBA's record book thanks to the generous whistle that he received during his prime years. 

Bryant scored 81 points in a game and averaged 35.4 ppg at a time when most NBA teams struggled to score 100 points per game; it is easy to picture prime Bryant averaging at least 40 ppg in today's NBA, and the same should be said of Michael Jordan. Julius Erving's hands are so big that when he played he could catch a basketball with one hand and go up for a shot without touching the ball with his other hand; it is tantalizing to dream about the wonders that Erving would perform in today's game when defensive physicality on the perimeter has been eliminated while offensive players are permitted to do just about anything with the ball short of running from one end of the court to the other with no dribbles. Erving shot .343 from three point range in his final three ABA seasons, so it is easy to picture Erving becoming a successful, high volume three point shooter if that had been a point of emphasis during his career--and that would have made him impossible to guard in today's NBA, leaving defenders with the unenviable choice of watching him bury three pointers or watching him fly to the hoop to dunk without facing rim protectors.

Labels: David Robinson, David Thompson, Elgin Baylor, Kobe Bryant, L.A. Lakers, Toronto Raptors, Wilt Chamberlain

posted by David Friedman @ 9:37 AM

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New York and Orlando Advance to the NBA Cup Semifinals

The Orlando Magic defeated the Miami Heat 117-108 in the first of the 2025 NBA Cup quarterfinals games. Last year, the Magic lost to the Milwaukee Bucks in the NBA Cup quarterfinals, but this year their offseason addition of Desmond Bane paid big dividends as he erupted for a game-high 37 points on 14-24 field goal shooting, including 6-9 from three point range for a team that ranked 30th (last) in the league in three point field goal percentage last season. Jalen Suggs contributed 20 points, four assists, and two steals, Paolo Banchero added 18 points, seven rebounds, and four assists, and Wendell Carter Jr. had 14 points plus a game-high 10 rebounds. The Magic won the rebounding battle 47-39 and they outscored the Heat in the paint 60-52. Norman Powell led a balanced Heat offense with 21 points on 8-19 field goal shooting, followed closely by Tyler Herro (20 points), Bam Adebeyo (19 points, team-high eight rebounds), and Andrew Wiggins (19 points).

In my December 3 NBA Cup article, I picked Orlando to beat Miami, but that was before the Magic's Franz Wagner suffered a left high ankle sprain that is expected to sideline him for several weeks. Wagner is averaging 22.7 ppg, 6.1 rpg, and 3.7 apg in 24 games this season, and initially the Magic struggled without him as the Heat jumped to a 15-0 lead by the 9:16 mark of the first quarter. The Magic outscored the Heat 17-15 the rest of the way in the first quarter, and then won the second quarter 39-27 to pull to within 57-56 by halftime. The Magic took the lead early in the third quarter before Bane fouled Adebayo on a three point attempt at the 8:53 mark. Adebayo made the first two free throws before missing the third, but Adebayo scooped up the rebound and Powell drained a three pointer a few seconds later to complete the rare five point possession, putting the Heat up, 69-66. Suggs answered with a three pointer to tie the score, and the Magic never trailed again. The Magic waste too many possessions and make too many careless plays to be a championship team, but Bane's 25 second half points proved to be too much for the Heat to overcome. 

Even with this loss, the Heat are still one of the NBA's pleasant surprises. They are playing at the fastest pace in franchise history, ranking third in the league in scoring (122.3 ppg) prior to this game. Jimmy Butler forced his way out of Miami last season and he landed with the Golden State Warriors, but so far this season the Heat have a better record than the Warriors. Butler's video message to Warriors' fans after he joined the team--"Championship coming soon"--is not aging well. Miami coach Erik Spoelstra proved that he can successfully handle the egos on a super team while leading the Heat to NBA titles in 2012 and 2013 with LeBron James, Dwyane Wade, and Chris Bosh forming a "Big Three," and he has also shown that he can maximize the output of a team that does not have even one superstar. 

In the second game of Amazon Prime's NBA Cup quarterfinals doubleheader, the New York Knicks beat the Toronto Raptors 117-101. Jalen Brunson poured in a game-high 35 points on 13-19 field goal shooting, including 6-9 from beyond the arc. He had 20 first quarter points on 7-9 field goal shooting to help the Knicks overcome an otherwise slow start. An alleged problem for the Knicks last season was that coach Tom Thiboedeau relied too heavily on his starters, but the formula that carried them to the Eastern Conference Finals for the first time since 2000 also worked in this game for coach Mike Brown: the Knicks' starters scored 98 of the team's 117 points while four of New York's starters played at least 36 minutes each. Josh Hart contributed 21 points, six rebounds, and four assists. Mikal Bridges had 15 points, five rebounds, and four assists, Karl-Anthony Towns added 14 points, a game-high 16 rebounds, and two blocked shots, and OG Anunoby chipped in 13 points plus six rebounds. The Knicks outrebounded the Raptors 48-37, and they shot .525 (42-80) from the field while holding the Raptors to .433 (39-90) field goal shooting. Brandon Ingram led the Raptors with 31 points on 11-18 field goal shooting while also grabbing six rebounds and dishing six assists. Jamal Shead made his first start of the season in place of the injured Immanuel Quickley, and he scored 18 points while passing for a game-high eight assists. Scottie Barnes scored just 13 points on 6-18 field goal shooting, tying his second lowest point total of the season.

This game played out the way that I expected; in my aforementioned December 3 NBA cup article, I picked New York to beat Toronto by double digits, noting that Toronto "feasted on a weak schedule loaded with sub-.500 teams, and they lost to the Knicks 116-94 on November 30." The Raptors gave their fans some early (and false) hope by taking a 17-11 first quarter lead and they were still up 39-35 at the end of the first quarter--but the Knicks blitzed the Raptors 34-13 in the second quarter, shooting .583 (14-24) from the field while holding the Raptors to .238 (5-21) field goal shooting. The Raptors outscored the Knicks 49-48 in the second half, but that was not nearly enough to overcome their second quarter collapse.

The Knicks and Magic will play on Saturday December 13 in Las Vegas to earn the right to represent the Eastern Conference in the NBA Cup Championship Game. 

Labels: Desmond Bane, Jalen Brunson, Miami Heat, NBA Cup, New York Knicks, Orlando Magic, Toronto Raptors

posted by David Friedman @ 12:51 AM

2 comments

Thunder Dominate NBA Cup Play--and Everything Else

The Oklahoma City Thunder lost to the Milwaukee Bucks in the 2024 NBA Cup Championship Game, but the Thunder have rolled since then, setting the NBA's single season point differential record (12.9 ppg) while going 68-14 before defeating the Indiana Pacers in the 2025 NBA Finals. The Thunder currently have a league-leading 21-1 record with an incredible 15.3 ppg point differential. Jalen Williams, the Thunder's second best player behind Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, has appeared in just three of the Thunder's 22 games, and other key Thunder players--including Lu Dort, Alex Caruso, and Aaron Wiggins--have missed significant time as well.

The Thunder seem to be well on their way to not only winning 70-plus regular season games but also becoming the first repeat champion since the 2018 Golden State Warriors--but before the NBA playoffs, the basketball gods (also known as NBA Commissioner Adam Silver) have placed the NBA Cup. The Thunder are dominating the NBA Cup even more decisively than they are dominating the regular season overall; they went 4-0 in NBA Cup group play with an 18.8 ppg point differential, finishing first in West Group A to set up a quarterfinal game versus the Phoenix Suns on December 10. The winner of that game will face the winner of the December 10 game featuring the L.A. Lakers and the San Antonio Spurs. The Lakers have the second best overall record in the Western Conference (15-5), followed by the Houston Rockets (13-5), San Antonio Spurs (14-6), and Denver Nuggets (14-6). The Suns are seventh with a 13-9 record. 

The Thunder beat the Suns 123-119 on November 28 as Williams made his season debut with 11 points on 3-12 field goal shooting. The Suns have played surprisingly well this season, but Williams has looked better in each game that he has played so far and the Thunder's victory margin has increased in each of those games, so the Thunder should beat the Suns to advance to the semifinals. 

Only four of the Lakers' 15 wins are against teams that currently have winning records, so it will be interesting to see how the Lakers fare against tougher competition. The Lakers beat the Spurs 118-116 on November 5, but the Lakers have given up at least 118 points in four of their past five games and I expect the Spurs to win a close, high scoring game to earn a matchup with the Thunder.

The Thunder have yet to play the Spurs this season, but if they play in the semifinals I predict that the Thunder will win by at least 10 points.

In the Eastern Conference, the Orlando Magic and Toronto Raptors each went 4-0 in NBA Cup group play but the Magic earned the top seed because they had a better NBA Cup point differential (+64 compared to +55)--and they achieved that primarily by drilling the Philadelphia 76ers 144-103 on November 25. The Detroit Pistons have the best record (17-4) in the Eastern Conference and the second best record in the league behind the Thunder, but they went 2-2 in NBA Cup group play and failed to advance to the quarterfinals. The Cleveland Cavaliers had the Eastern Conference's best record last season (64-18) but they are just 13-9 this season, including 2-2 in NBA Cup group play.

The Magic are currently fifth overall in the Eastern Conference with a 13-8 record, and they will face the Miami Heat (14-7 overall, 3-1 in NBA Cup group play) in the NBA Cup quarterfinals on December 9. Orlando beat Miami 125-121 on October 22 in the season opener for both teams. The Magic lost their next four games, but they have won their last three games and six of their last seven; the Heat have also played very well recently, winning seven of their last eight games. I expect Orlando to beat Miami in a close game to advance to the NBA Cup semifinals. The other Eastern Conference quarterfinals matchup features Toronto versus the New York Knicks (13-7 overall, 3-1 in NBA Cup group play). The 15-7 Raptors are one of the league's early season surprises, but they have feasted on a weak schedule loaded with sub-.500 teams, and they lost to the Knicks 116-94 on November 30. I predict that the Knicks will beat the Raptors by double digits.

The Magic have already beaten the Knicks twice this season (124-107 on November 12, and 133-121 on November 22), and if they face each other in the semifinals I expect the Magic to win again.

The Thunder have not played the Magic this season, but if they meet in the NBA Cup Championship Game then I expect the Thunder to win.

The NBA Cup seems to be here to stay, so anyone covering the NBA is obligated to discuss it, but I still consider it to be a flawed concept, and in 2023 I pointed out the NBA Cup's two major drawbacks:

There are at least two drawbacks with the current NBA Cup format: (1) the use of point differential as the first tiebreaker in Group Play resulted in farcical situations during which teams ran up the score, and (2) there will be quirky scheduling this week for the teams that did not qualify for knockout round play. Regarding the first drawback, I am all for players and teams playing hard from opening tip to final buzzer, but intentionally running up the score in the waning moments of a blowout looks silly and renders those individual and team statistics meaningless: how many more points would the great teams and players of the past have scored if teams ran up the score instead of putting in the reserves? Regarding the second drawback, if a fan wants to see a particular visiting player or team how is he supposed to plan in advance for a week in which the schedule is dotted with "TBD"?  

The NBA has done nothing to fix either drawback, so we continue to see inflated statistics from blowout games along with a schedule that is frustrating and confounding for fans who are trying to make plans to see specific players or teams. 

The long term historical significance of the NBA Cup is unclear, but thus far NBA Cup success has not yet consistently translated to NBA playoff success. The L.A. Lakers defeated the Indiana Pacers in the 2023 NBA Cup Championship Game, but the Lakers finished the season as the eighth seeded team in the Western Conference before losing 4-1 to the Denver Nuggets in the first round. The Pacers had the same record as the Lakers (47-35) but finished sixth in the weaker Eastern Conference and then advanced to the Eastern Conference Finals before being swept by the Boston Celtics, who went on to capture the NBA title. The Milwaukee Bucks finished fifth in the Eastern Conference and lost in the first round of the 2025 playoffs after winning the 2024 NBA Cup. So far, the 2024-25 Thunder are the only NBA Cup Championship Game participant that has reached the NBA Finals.

Labels: L.A. Lakers, Miami Heat, New York Knicks, Oklahoma City Thunder, Orlando Magic, Phoenix Suns, San Antonio Spurs, Toronto Raptors

posted by David Friedman @ 5:03 PM

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Warriors Hope to See "Playoff Jimmy" Instead of Disinterested Jimmy

Jimmy Butler won his power struggle with the Miami Heat, forcing his way out and receiving a two year, $112 million contract extension from the Golden State Warriors that more than covers the roughly $6 million of salary that he lost after being suspended three times this season by the Heat. The Heat sent Butler, two second round draft picks, and cash considerations to the Warriors in exchange for Kyle Anderson, Davion Mitchell, Andrew Wiggins, and a first round draft pick. Several other teams participated in the deal as well.  The Toronto Raptors received P.J. Tucker from the Utah Jazz, plus a second round draft pick and cash considerations from the Heat. The Detroit Pistons received Dennis Schroder from the Jazz via the Warriors, and they also received Lindy Waters III and a 2031 second round pick via the Warriors. The Jazz received K.J. Martin from the Pistons via the Philadelphia 76ers, Josh Richardson via the Heat, two second round draft picks, and cash considerations from the Heat.

Most of these moves will be remembered as bookkeeping maneuvers facilitating Butler's departure from Miami in exchange for three players plus a first round draft pick. In my analysis of the shocking Luka Doncic-Anthony Davis trade, I wrote, "The tried and true template for evaluating an NBA trade is to look at which team received the best player, while understanding that size matters in the NBA and that age also matters." Butler has earned six All-Star selections, five All-NBA Team selections, and five All-Defensive Team selections while also winning the 2023 Larry Bird Eastern Conference Finals MVP; he has more accolades, accomplishments, and honors than all of the other players in this deal combined. Butler is 35 years old, but he has been reasonably productive this season (17.0 ppg, 5.2 rpg, 4.8 apg, a career-high .540 FG%). Wiggins, the only other player in the deal who made the All-Star team (2022), is almost 30 years old. He was a vital contributor to Golden State's 2022 championship team, but he has been inconsistent (and often unavailable) since 2022. 

The Warriors are the clear winners of this trade based on the best player criterion. Size is not a factor in this trade, as none of the players are taller than 6-9 or power players in the paint, but age is a factor worth considering. Butler is five years older than Wiggins, and four years older than Anderson, Schroder and Richardson. Other than the 39 year old Tucker, there is a good chance that every rotation player included in this trade has more years left in the league than Butler does. Age matters little to the win-or-bust Warriors, but the Heat did the best that they could to obtain players who can be in their rotation for the next several years (or who are viable enough to be packaged for other rotation players or draft picks)--and they did well to obtain anything of value for an aging, disgruntled player who wears out his welcome everywhere he goes.

After the trade, Butler delivered a brief video message to Warriors' fans, concluding with these bold words: "Championship coming soon." Talk is cheap, but  $112 million is not cheap for a 35 year old who has never been durable, has never made the All-NBA First Team, and has never finished higher than 10th in regular season MVP voting.

The "Playoff Jimmy" nickname is primarily based on three extended Miami playoff runs (2020 NBA Finals, 2022 Eastern Conference Finals, 2023 Eastern Conference Finals), but Butler averaged just 14.5 ppg on .297 field goal shooting when the Bucks swept the Heat in the first round in 2021, and he shot .451 from the field or worse in his six playoff appearances with Chicago, Minnesota, and Philadelphia. Butler missed the 2024 playoffs due to injury, and his comment after the playoffs that the Heat would have beaten Boston if he had played earned a stern rebuke from Heat President Pat Riley, who bluntly stated that players who don't participate should not talk. That may not have been the end of Butler's positive relationship with the Heat, but it seems like it was the beginning of the end, because Riley's public censure of Butler reflected Riley's position that Butler is not available enough to be worth a max contract extension.

It is possible that Butler will play with renewed energy and vigor for the Warriors after receiving the contract extension that the Heat refused to give him, but it is also possible that now that he got paid he will be satisfied and unmotivated. He built a mythology about himself that he is all about the team and about winning, but the way that he forced Miami to trade him demonstrated that he is all about flexing his power for personal gain. Butler has not played in more than 65 games in a season since 2016-17, when he was 27; it is unlikely that he will suddenly become more durable or more reliable, so the Warriors should expect to get--at best--130 regular season games or less from Butler out of a possible 164 in the next two seasons. 

Published reports indicate that the Warriors preferred to bring back Kevin Durant for a second tour of duty instead of acquiring Butler, but Durant balked. It is no secret that Durant left the Warriors to get away from the volatile Draymond Green, and it is reasonable to assume that his refusal to return to the Bay Area is primarily--if not exclusively--based on his disinclination to team up again with Mr. "Triple Single." The Athletic recently ranked Green as the 100th greatest NBA player of all-time, which is high--and undeserved--praise for a player sporting career averages of 8.7 ppg, 6.9 rpg, and 5.6 apg with shooting splits of .450/.322/.707 (The Athletic ranked Butler 99th all-time, which seems a bit too high, though I agree with ranking Butler ahead of Green). There is no doubt that Green contributed playmaking and defense to the Warriors' four most recent championship teams, but he was fortunate to play alongside three legitimate Hall of Famers: Kevin Durant, Stephen Curry, and Klay Thompson. When Green took the court for the 2019-20 Warriors without those three great players, the whole world saw what Green is all about as he averaged 8.0 ppg on .389 field goal shooting along with 6.2 rpg and 6.2 apg for a 15-50 team. Green is a high level role player, not an all-time great player; separate him from great players, and he has little impact on winning (which does not change the fact that he has some impact on winning when he is surrounded by great players).

When people talk about Green's role on championship teams they should also talk about his role on costing the Warriors opportunities to win other championships as a result of his out of control behavior leading to suspensions and leading to Durant's departure/refusal to return. It will be interesting to see how history judges the Warriors' decision to hold onto Green while losing Durant, Thompson, and other players. Perhaps there is no market for Green's services outside of Golden State, but if there is any market then the Warriors should have gotten rid of Green and kept (or at least brought back) Durant.

Prior to Butler's arrival, the Warriors were fighting to stay above .500 and earn a spot in the Play-In Tournament. If all goes well, Butler could help the Warriors sneak into the playoffs, but it is difficult to picture this team winning a playoff series against any of the Western Conference's top four teams. It will be interesting to observe the Butler-Green chemistry, particularly if the Warriors continue to hover around .500. Neither player is shy about expressing his opinions.

Butler seemed poised to win the unofficial prize for self-centered inflation of his importance/worth after quitting on his team and pouting about losing his "joy" because of merely being paid close to $50 million per year to dribble a basketball, but then Schroder opened his mouth and claimed the prize all for himself. Schroder, a minor figure in the multi-team deal, will make $13 million this season. He is scoring 14.4 ppg on .418 field goal shooting this season, numbers that are in line with his career averages, and he is very dissatisfied with his lot in life, whining that the way that NBA teams trade players is equivalent to "modern slavery."  Declaring that NBA players are slaves is so wildly delusional that it almost defies description. There are millions of people in the world who are struggling to obtain enough food to eat and who are deprived of basic human rights; those people are suffering modern slavery, and they would gladly trade places with Schroder. What Schroder fails to acknowledge is that--unlike a slave--he has the freedom to choose a different job, to choose where he lives, and even to make idiotic public statements without fear of repercussions from the government or his employer.

Labels: Andrew Wiggins, Dennis Schroder, Detroit Pistons, Golden State Warriors, Jimmy Butler, Kyle Anderson, Miami Heat, P.J. Tucker, Toronto Raptors, Utah Jazz

posted by David Friedman @ 10:05 AM

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The 2023 NBA Play-In Tournament: Grab Your Popcorn and Savor the Mediocrity!

The 2023 NBA Play-In Tournament features the seventh seeded teams in the Eastern and Western Conferences (Miami Heat and L.A. Lakers respectively) facing the eighth seeded teams in the Eastern and Western Conferences (Atlanta Hawks and Minnesota Timberwolves respectively). Each of the winners of those two games qualifies for the playoffs as the seventh seeded team in that conference, and will face the second seeded team in that conference in a seven game first round playoff series. Each of the losers of those two games will get a second chance to qualify for the playoffs by facing the winner of the battle between the ninth seeded teams in the Eastern and Western Conferences (Toronto Raptors and New Orleans Pelicans respectively) versus the 10th seeded teams in the Eastern and Western Conferences (Chicago Bulls and Oklahoma City Thunder respectively), while the losers of the games featuring the ninth and 10th seeded teams are eliminated.

The NBA began using the Play-In Tournament in this format in 2021. The seventh seeded team has yet to lose a game in either conference, and the ninth seeded team has yet to lose to the 10th seeded team. The ninth seeded team has defeated the eighth seeded team three times in four games. No team that qualified for the NBA playoffs via the Play-In Tournament has extended a playoff series to seven games, much less actually win a playoff series.

In short, the Play-In Tournament is a showcase for teams that spent 82 regular season games proving their mediocrity, and no Play-In Tournament team has proven to be anything other than mediocre.

In the Eastern Conference, I predict that Miami will defeat Atlanta, and Toronto will defeat Chicago. Then, Toronto will defeat Atlanta to earn the eighth seed. The Miami Heat not only enjoy homecourt advantage, but the Heat have the same core players who reached the 2022 Eastern Conference Finals. The Heat have struggled with injuries and uncharacteristic inconsistency this season, but they have a better and deeper team than the Hawks. If there is a Play-In Tournament team that could actually win a playoff series--a doubtful proposition, as noted above--the Heat are that team. The Raptors have endured a disappointing season, but they should be able to win two games to salvage this campaign by at least earning a spot in the playoffs. The Atlanta Hawks' run to the 2021 Eastern Conference Finals was a fluke: they went 41-41 that season, and followed that up with records of 43-39 and 41-41 the past two seasons while cycling through four coaches since 2020.

In the Western Conference, I predict that the L.A. Lakers will defeat Minnesota, and New Orleans will defeat Oklahoma City. Then, New Orleans will defeat Minnesota to earn the eighth seed. The media narrative that it is an accomplishment for the Lakers to earn a spot in the Play-In Tournament is baffling; the Lakers feature two players selected to the NBA's 75th Anniversary Team: failing to qualify for the playoffs outright is embarrassing, and losing in the Play-In Tournament should be considered unacceptable. The Utah Jazz' "B" team eviscerated the Lakers in the paint by a 76-50 margin in the last game of the regular season with playoff positioning on the line for the Lakers, putting a dent in the notion that the Lakers have become some kind of defensive juggernaut since the trade deadline--but the Lakers won the game, mainly because of some improbable three point marksmanship (8-14) from LeBron James, who posted one of the lowest three point shooting percentages of his career this season, and who made at least five three pointers in a game just five other times all season long. The Lakers have performed better recently because Anthony Davis has been healthy and thus has been active at both ends of the court, but the Lakers are what their overall record suggest that they are: at best, a lower tier playoff team.

The Minnesota Timberwolves have never been known for their collective basketball IQ--to put it charitably--but their multiple meltdowns during the last game of the season are as baffling as they are damaging: Rudy Gobert was sent home at halftime after punching teammate Kyle Anderson, and Jaden McDaniels fractured his hand by punching a wall. Somehow, the Timberwolves still beat the Pelicans, though perhaps that is not shocking considering that the Timberwolves often played better this season without Gobert. McDaniels is likely out for whatever remains of the Timberwolves' season, while Gobert's status has yet to be publicly determined.

If James cannot lead the Lakers to a home win against the dysfunctional Timberwolves, even his staunchest allies in the press corps will have a difficult time buying whatever excuses he offers.

The Pelicans are talented and scrappy even without the perpetually injured Zion Williamson, and I like their chances to beat the Timberwolves in a rematch of the regular season finale.

The NBA does not include Play-In Tournament statistics with either their regular season statistics or their playoff statistics, which reinforces the reality that these games are less about competition than about an opportunity to make more money--and we know that the NBA cares about profits more than anything else. For the record, in 2021 I correctly picked three of the four Play-In Tournament qualifiers (Boston, Washington, L.A. Lakers), and in 2022 I correctly picked three of the four Play-In Tournament qualifiers (Atlanta, Brooklyn, Minnesota); to review my previous Play-Tournament predictions and commentary, check out the links below.

Previous Play-In Tournament Articles:

2022

The NBA is (Usually) Fantastic (Except When Teams Bench Their Starters for the Season's Last Game) (April 11, 2022)

Nets Clinch Seventh Seed After Outlasting Cavaliers, 115-108 (April 12, 2022)

Notes on the 2022 NBA Play-In Tournament (April 14, 2022)

2021

Thoughts on the NBA's Play-In Tournament (May 17, 2021)

Nine Versus Ten Does Not Add Up to Fantastic Basketball (May 20, 2021)

Labels: Atlanta Hawks, Chicago Bulls, L.A. Lakers, Miami Heat, Minnesota Timberwolves, New Orleans Pelicans, Oklahoma City Thunder, Play-In Tournament, Toronto Raptors

posted by David Friedman @ 1:53 AM

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2022-23 Eastern Conference Preview

Midway through the 2021-22 season, many "experts" questioned if Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown could play together effectively, but the Boston Celtics ignored the noise and advanced to the NBA Finals before losing to the Golden State Warriors. The Celtics have reached the Eastern Conference Finals four times in the past six seasons, and they are poised to advance at least that far again in 2022-23, even with Coach Ime Udoka being suspended by the team for at least one full season.

However, the 2021 NBA champion Milwaukee Bucks should be considered the preseason favorites to win the Eastern Conference. Khris Middleton is healthy, and the Bucks added depth by acquiring Joe Ingles, who will miss the start of the season as he recovers from an ACL injury suffered in February 2022 when he played for the Utah Jazz. A playoff rematch of Boston versus Milwaukee would be a great series. 

In the latest edition of "As the Brooklyn Nets Turn," Kevin Durant rescinded his request that the Nets either trade him or fire General Manager Sean Marks and Coach Steve Nash. If "I flexed and nobody budged" were a person, his name would be Kevin Durant; the Nets shrugged at Durant's ultimatum, dangled him in the trade market at a price that no one would likely pay for a 33 year old player who has already had a serious injury, and then waited for Durant to come to his senses: the Nets could be confident that Durant was not going to hold out, and they have all the leverage because he is under contract for a multi-year deal.

Still, even with Durant back in the fold the Nets have more questions than an attorney conducting a cross-examination of a lying witness: How many games will Kyrie Irving play? How many games will Ben Simmons play? Is Durant really content to be in Brooklyn, or is he just patiently plotting his next attempt to flee for what he hopes/perceives to be greener pastures? If the Nets were collectively focused on winning a title, they would be a reasonable choice as the favorites in the East, if not the entire league; if the Nets implode, they might struggle to make the playoffs. Right now, I see them as the East's third best team, and a tough out for Boston in the second round.

With the addition of Donovan Mitchell, the Cleveland Cavaliers have enough offensive talent combined with their defensive mindset to beat any team in a seven game series, but it remains to be seen if the Cavaliers can stay healthy, and if they can consistently play at a high level under playoff pressure.

Yes, I am aware that the Miami Heat had the best record in the East last season, and that they pushed Boston to seven games in the Eastern Conference Finals. I am also aware that the Heat only finished two games ahead of Boston, Milwaukee, and Philadelphia. Boston improved more in the offseason than Miami did. When healthy, Milwaukee has a better team than Miami. I am not sure that Philadelphia will be better than Miami but it will probably be close, and I definitely think that Donovan Mitchell plus improved health will be worth nine games in the standings for Cleveland.

The Philadelphia 76ers have a decent amount of talent, but they have James Harden in a major role, and no team is going to win a title with James Harden in a major role--I've been saying it for a decade, I've been right, and I will keep saying it. Also, Joel Embiid has yet to prove that he can stay healthy enough to lead the 76ers past the second round. 

The Toronto Raptors are very well-coached and they have some good young players, so they can be a spoiler if things break right for them and/or wrong for someone else, but it is difficult to picture a scenario in which they win the East or even reach the Eastern Conference Finals.

Listed below are the eight teams that I expect to qualify for the Eastern Conference playoffs, ranked based on their likelihood of advancing to the NBA Finals:

1) Milwaukee Bucks: Khris Middleton's knee injury derailed Milwuakee's bid to repeat as NBA champions. The Bucks pushed the Celtics to seven games in the second round even without Middleton and--while taking nothing away from the Celtics--it is reasonable to say that a healthy Middleton would have been worth one more Milwaukee win in that series.

Giannis Antetokounmpo won the regular season MVP in 2019 and 2020 before capturing the 2021 Finals MVP. Regardless of who wins those individual trophies in a given season, Antetokounmpo has established himself as the league's best player: he is an elite scorer, rebounder, passer, and defender, he does not take nights off, and there is zero drama surrounding him. No other player who is mentioned in the best player conversation checks off every one of those boxes. 

It is fascinating that the Clown (also known as Gilbert Arenas) and the Flailing Flopper (also known as James Harden) have both publicly mocked Antetokounmpo for supposedly lacking all-around basketball skills and work ethic. Arenas and Harden have combined to produce 24 seasons without a championship--and if Harden had not ridden the coattails of Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook to the 2012 NBA Finals then Arenas and Harden would also have combined for nearly a quarter century of not reaching the NBA Finals without buying a ticket. The concept of staying quiet and letting people just assume that you are a fool as opposed to opening your mouth and removing any doubt sailed over the heads of Arenas and Harden just like their errant shots sailed past the basket during their playoff appearances.

Last season, Antetokounmpo averaged a career-high 29.9 ppg (second in the NBA), 11.6 rpg (sixth), and 5.8 apg while shooting .553 from the field. He led the NBA in playoff scoring (31.7 ppg) while averaging 14.2 rpg and 6.8 apg. He is just 27 years old, so he may not have even reached his peak yet!

If Antetokounmpo stays healthy and has even just a decent supporting cast around him, he will win multiple championships and he will establish himself as the best player of the 2020s.

2) Boston Celtics: The popular notion that the Celtics could not win a title with Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown as their two best players makes no sense. Tatum and Brown are both versatile two-way players who have superior size, skills, and athleticism. If Tatum is not already an MVP-level player then he is not far behind, and Brown is not far behind him. I did not foresee the Celtics as a championship contender last season not because of their star duo but rather because I was skeptical about the team's supporting cast--but Marcus Smart, Al Horford, Robert Williams, and Grant Williams played very well.

The addition of Malcolm Brogdon bolsters an already deep team, but the season-ending injury suffered by new acquisition Danilo Gallinari is unfortunate. 

The Celtics are good enough to return to the NBA Finals, but if the Bucks are healthy then I expect the Bucks to prevail in what should be an electrifying Eastern Conference Finals.

It is too soon to say how the Celtics will be impacted by the elevation of assistant coach Joe Mazzulla to head coach while Ime Udoka serves a suspension of at least one season for violating multiple team rules, but I believe that because Mazzulla was promoted from within the team the transition will be smoother than some "experts" seem to expect; he is familiar with the players, and the players are familiar with him.

3) Brooklyn Nets: It is often difficult to understand what Kevin Durant is thinking or why seems to be perpetually dissatisfied or why he says some of the things he says--but when he steps on the court he is all business and he remains one of the best players in the league. The first round sweep at the hands of a superior Boston team was not one of the highlights of Durant's career, but that was also not a surprising end to a disjointed season during which Durant's co-stars abandoned him for a variety of reasons/excuses.

The Nets went 36-19 during the regular season when Durant played, and he averaged 29.9 ppg, 7.4 rpg, and 6.4 apg with shooting splits of .518/.383/.910. Durant will be 34 when the season begins and he has already recovered from one serious injury, but there is no reason to think that he does not have at least one more MVP-level season left.

Kyrie Irving was brilliant when he played (27.4 ppg, 5.8 apg) but he only played in 29 games. It is not clear if being a great basketball player is the most important thing to him, and there is a decent amount of evidence suggesting that basketball is not his top priority.

Ben Simmons did not play in a single game for the Nets after they acquired him in a trade for overrated malcontent James Harden. Simmons can guard any position, and he is a superior playmaker and rebounder. His limitations as a shooter are well-documented, but if he averages 16-8-8 then he will have more than done his part to put the Nets in position to contend. There are questions about his mental health and about his balky back, but in the context of this preview the hope and assumption is that he will be healthy and productive.

When the Nets are healthy and whole they can be a dynamic offensive team. Their weaknesses are size, defense, and rebounding. Simmons checks off all three of those important boxes. From a talent standpoint, this team at full strength could beat any team in the league in a seven game series--but the intangibles (including coaching, chemistry, mindset) suggest that the Nets will not have quite enough to beat the Bucks or Celtics in a seven game series.

4) Cleveland Cavaliers: Despite numerous injuries, the Cavaliers finished as an elite defensive team (fifth in points allowed, eighth in defensive field goal percentage). They are a pesky, scrappy, and well-coached team. The missing links were health and offensive efficiency. The addition of Donovan Mitchell will boost Cleveland's offense, because Mitchell can create offense for himself and for others. If the Cavaliers are reasonably healthy then they will be very dangerous. The only thing that they lack (other than playoff experience together as a group) is a legit superstar/MVP caliber player. Milwaukee has Antetokounmpo, Boston has Tatum, and Brooklyn has Durant. Star power matters, so it will take a lot for Cleveland to not just knock off one of the top three teams but to beat two of them in a seven game series, which is what it may take to reach the NBA Finals. 

5) Miami Heat: The Heat had a remarkable regular season. Each of their top four players in minutes per game (Jimmy Butler, Kyle Lowry, Tyler Herro, and Bam Adebayo) missed at least 16 games, but the Heat battled their way to the East's best record. They are not a big team nor do they rebound very well, but they ranked fourth in points allowed and fourth in defensive field goal percentage. They do not attempt a large number of three pointers (ranking 14th in that category), but they led the league in three point field goal percentage (.379)--and they led the league in three point field percentage defense. They are disciplined, they are well-conditioned, and they don't beat themselves.

In short, Erik Spoelstra is a great coach, and Pat Riley is a great organizational leader; Riley is the only executive who did not roll over for LeBron James, and it is not a coincidence that James won more titles (two) in Miami than he has anywhere else despite his Miami stint being shorter than his tenure with Cleveland or L.A.

So why am I listing Miami as the fifth best team in the East? Boston was better last season, and improved more in the offseason. Healthy Milwaukee is better than Miami, as is healthy Brooklyn. I may be reaching a bit with Cleveland, and I would not be shocked if Miami finishes fourth and Cleveland finishes fifth. The point is that Milwaukee, Boston, and Brooklyn are a cut above teams 4-6.

6) Philadelphia 76ers: Somebody already made money with an absurdly titled book about how the 76ers were built--the 76ers most assuredly have not "tanked to the top"-- and in 10 years or less somebody will make money writing about how the Daryl Morey/Joel Embiid/James Harden 76ers "could've/should've" won an NBA title. Maybe Morey will even write the preface to that book and assert that if you look at the "advanced basketball statistics" then not only is Harden a better scorer than Michael Jordan but the 76ers actually had the best team even though they did not win a championship.

Embiid is an MVP-caliber player. Harden is an All-Star caliber player. Tyrese Maxey is developing into a very good player, and Tobias Harris is an underrated player who does not seek the limelight. Doc Rivers is a championship coach.

The parts may seem to be there for a championship run, but the whole is much less than the sum of the parts. Embiid is never in top physical condition, and he lacks something as a leader. Harden is the most overrated player of the past 10 years, and one of the most overrated players in NBA history--yes, when you are an All-Star level player but somehow have a trophy case containing an MVP and a 75th Anniversary Team jacket then you are both good and vastly overrated. Maxey and Harris are good, but the other contenders have third and fourth options who are just as good, if not better.

It is interesting that Morey is filling out the roster by making Philadelphia into Houston East; nothing against P.J. Tucker and Danuel House Jr., but considering Houston's playoff flameouts during the Morey/Harden era I am not sure that bringing that band back together is the way to go. The 76ers need young, energetic two-way players who can step up when Embiid is fatigued/injured and when Harden disappears. Tucker and House Jr. are solid supporting players, but when Embiid and/or Harden inevitably fade they will not be able to make enough of a difference. Brooklyn-Philadelphia could be an interesting first round series in terms of the Harden/Simmons subplots, but if Brooklyn is whole the games themselves will be less competitive than some may expect.

7) Toronto Raptors: If Cleveland-Miami-Philadelphia represent the second tier in the East, then Toronto stands atop the third tier. The Raptors do not have a superstar, but they have several very good two-way players who are interchangeable in terms of size and skill set, plus a pair of small bulldog guards (Fred VanVleet and Gary Trent Jr.) who give no quarter. It will be interesting to see what the ceiling is for Scottie Barnes. If he can develop into an MVP level player then the Raptors could be a contender, but even if that happens it is not likely to happen this season.

The coaching of Nick Nurse is a major advantage for the Raptors. There are few, if any, games in which the Raptors will be outprepared or outschemed. 

This is a team that could put a scare into one of the top teams in the first round before losing in six or seven games.

8) Atlanta Hawks: Before last season, I expressed skepticism that the Hawks are really an elite team even though they reached the 2021 Eastern Conference Finals. Sure enough, the Hawks plummeted back to Earth last season. The addition of Dejounte Murray improves Atlanta's size, talent, and versatility, but has anyone noticed that despite all of his efforts he could not even lift San Antonio to the playoffs for the past three seasons? Yes, the Hawks are better, but so are several other teams in the East. The Hawks were first round fodder in 2022, and they figure to be first round fodder in 2023. They score a lot, but they do not rebound or defend well. This is basically Portland East, with Trae Young playing the role of Damian Lillard. Lillard has reached the Western Conference Finals once in a 10 year career, and Young is on the same trajectory unless/until the Hawks add size, talent, and a defensive mentality.

The apparent permanent implementation of the Play-In Tournament means that the teams that finish the regular season in the top eight may not necessarily qualify for the playoffs. The teams ranked seventh through 10th will participate in the Play-In Tournament. The above eight teams are the teams that I predict will qualify for the playoffs, regardless of what the final regular season standings are. 

The Chicago Bulls earned the sixth seed last season before losing 4-1 to Milwaukee in the first round. The Bulls ranked third in field goal percentage but just 13th in scoring, 16th in points allowed, 26th in defensive field goal percentage, and 28th in rebounding. Offseason additions Goran Dragic and Andre Drummond do not figure to move the needle significantly, and the improvement of several teams will result in Chicago dropping out of the top eight. Bulls' fans might argue that a rash of injuries held the team back, and that good health will lift the Bulls higher in the standings; we shall see if the Bulls can stay healthy, and if that happens then we will see how good this team really is. The recent report that Lonzo Ball will be out indefinitely after knee surgery is bad news for the Bulls.

The New York Knicks took a step backward in the 2022 season after reaching the first round of the 2021 playoffs. The addition of Jalen Brunson should help, but there are good reasons to question if Julius Randle can be the best player on a team that makes much noise in the playoffs. The Bulls and Knicks will likely finish in the top 10 before getting eliminated in the Play-In Tournament.

The Charlotte Hornets went 43-39 with a good offense (fourth in scoring, 11th in field goal percentage) and below average defense (20th in defensive field goal percentage, 25th in points allowed). They did not upgrade their roster in the offseason, and thus they figure to slide down in the standings.

In my 2021-22 Eastern Conference Preview, I declared, "The 'stat gurus' and the numerous media members who consistently belittle and berate Russell Westbrook may have playoff expectations for the Washington Wizards, but history and logic indicate that teams that lose an MVP-caliber player tend to regress, usually significantly. The Washington Wizards fought their way into the Play-In Tournament last season largely because of Westbrook's MVP caliber play down the stretch. Without Westbrook, this team is headed to the Draft Lottery."

Sure enough, after getting rid of Westbrook--the media's favorite scapegoat--the Wizards dropped from being a playoff team in 2021 to having the 12th best record in the 15 team Eastern Conference in 2022. They did not add enough talent in the offseason to move up in the standings.

In the first season of Rick Carlisle's second stint as coach of the Indiana Pacers, the Pacers went 25-57, their worst winning percentage (.305) since 1984-85 (22-60, .268). The Pacers traded away Malcolm Brogdon, and they lost T.J. Warren to free agency. Carlisle is the team's fourth coach in the past seven years, and it is fair to say that the Pacers are in full rebuild mode, which hopefully will not devolve into unadulterated tanking.

**********
Note:

I correctly picked six of the eight 2022 Eastern Conference playoff teams. Here are my statistics for previous seasons:

Labels: Atlanta Hawks, Boston Celtics, Brooklyn Nets, Cleveland Cavaliers, Miami Heat, Milwaukee Bucks, Philadelphia 76ers, Toronto Raptors

posted by David Friedman @ 9:40 PM

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James Harden's "Concert Tour" Heads to Toronto for Game Six

No NBA team has ever blown a 3-0 lead, but if any team is built to make such history that team is the Philadelphia 76ers, whose 103-88 loss to Toronto at home on Monday night turned what had only recently been a 3-0 lead into a 3-2 lead as the series shifts to Toronto for game six. 

Philadelphia Coach Doc Rivers led the Boston Celtics to the 2008 championship and he has accomplished a lot during his career, but he is also the only coach in pro basketball history whose teams have squandered three 3-1 leads. 

Joel Embiid's brief and undistinguished playoff career has featured him being out of shape and/or injured, and he has never advanced past the second round. He has not been the same in this series since he tore a ligament in his right thumb.

James Harden is perhaps the worst playoff choker ever and--as Jalen Rose so aptly put it--he has been on a "concert tour" since joining the 76ers: tour dates so far in the Toronto series include 3/9, 4/11, 5/17, 6/17, 7/13. One more March, April, May, or June concert tour date--those are Harden's game by game field goal percentages (placed in "calendar" order, not game to game order), in case you did not get Rose's joke--will go a long way to pushing this series to a seventh game, which could be the grand finale for Harden and the 76ers. 

The Raptors enjoy matchup advantages versus the 76ers; that--plus the playoff history noted above--is why I picked the Raptors to win the series. The 76ers are at full strength other than Embiid, while the Raptors played game five without All-Star guard Fred VanVleet, and at times they have also been without the services of 2022 Rookie of the Year Scottie Barnes and potent scorer/scrappy defender Gary Trent Jr., but in the past two games the Raptors have begun exploiting their matchup advantages (they actually began doing so in game three, but Embiid bailed out the 76ers with a game-winning three pointer at the end of overtime). 

The percentages may still suggest that Toronto will win game six at home before the 76ers right the ship to win the seventh game in Philadelphia--but if this series goes back to Philadelphia tied 3-3 there will be much more pressure on the 76ers than on the Raptors, because the 76ers are supposedly a title contender while no one outside of the Raptors' locker room thinks that the Raptors are a title contender this season. One of my biggest wishes since Harden sulked his way out of Brooklyn was for him to play in a seventh game as a 76er, so that we can all see once again what Daryl Morey's greatest scorer of all-time does when everything is on the line.

Labels: Jalen Rose, James Harden, Philadelphia 76ers, Toronto Raptors

posted by David Friedman @ 2:00 AM

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Pascal Siakam Scores Playoff Career-High 34 Points as Raptors Avoid Sweep, Send Series Back to Philadelphia For Game Five

Put away the brooms, 76ers fans, and buckle your seatbelts for the James Harden playoff experience. Toronto beat Philadelphia 110-102 to avoid a sweep. Neither team shot well, but Toronto outrebounded Philadelphia 46-41 while also committing four fewer turnovers, and making seven more free throws; winning the possession game proved to be the decisive factor for Toronto. Pascal Siakam led the way with a playoff career-high 34 points on 10-19 field goal shooting while also grabbing eight rebounds and dishing for five assists. Gary Trent Jr. scored 24 points despite shooting just 8-20 from the field. Thaddeus Young provided a lift off of the bench with 13 points on 6-9 field goal shooting. Scottie Barnes, who received the 2022 NBA Rookie of the Year award before tipoff, was clearly hindered by the ankle injury that he suffered in game one (and that forced him to miss games two and three), but his game-high 11 rebounds helped Toronto to win the possession game. Barnes scored six points on 1-6 field goal shooting.

With Joel Embiid limited by a torn ligament in his right thumb and Tyrese Maxey's numbers regressing to the mean (11 points, 4-12 field goal shooting), James Harden was Philadelphia's leading scorer for the first time in this series. It is not a coincidence that this was also Philadelphia's first loss in this series, because the 76ers are a much better team with Harden as the fourth option than as the first option. Harden continued what Jalen Rose recently called his "concert tour," penciling in May 17 on the calendar (i.e., Harden shot 5-17 from the field). Here are Harden's previous "concert tour" dates from this series: 6-17, 3-9, 7-13. That adds up to a .375 field goal percentage in four playoff games versus Toronto for the player Daryl Morey called "by far number one in NBA history" as a scorer. Harden also had a team-high nine assists, five rebounds, four turnovers, and a game-worst -14 plus/minus number. 

Embiid labored his way to 21 points on 7-16 field goal shooting. He had eight rebounds and three assists. For the first time in this series, Embiid did not dominate the paint at either end of the court. 

The most likely outcome for game five in Philadelphia is that the 76ers win after Embiid plays a bit better than he did in game five, and after Harden's role is reduced as his teammates regain their footing on their home court. Barnes is hobbling, and the status of Toronto's All-Star guard Fred VanVleet is uncertain after he left game five with a hip injury. So, the odds are still heavily against Toronto recovering from a 3-0 deficit to beat Philadelphia in seven games, but if two star players are going to play central roles in the first such collapse in NBA playoff history then I would not be surprised to see Embiid and Harden "accomplish" this feat: Embiid has a history of never staying healthy for a full playoff run and never advancing past the second round, while Harden is perhaps the worst playoff choker among star players in pro basketball history.

Labels: James Harden, Joel Embiid, Pascal Siakam, Philadelphia 76ers, Toronto Raptors

posted by David Friedman @ 5:06 PM

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What Have We Learned After the First Two Games of the Philadelphia-Toronto Series?

The Philadelphia 76ers routed the Toronto Raptors in each of the first two games of their playoff series, winning 131-111 in game one and then winning 112-97 in game two. I picked Toronto to beat Philadelphia in six games, but it is obvious now that the Raptors face an uphill climb just to get back in the series; some commentators say that the home team winning the first two games is "just holding serve and the series does not begin until the road team wins a game," but the reality is that a team that wins the first two games of an NBA playoff series wins the series 92.4% of the time: history shows that to have a realistic chance to win a series a team must at least split the first two games. Playoff history in general and the specific way that the matchups have played out so far in this series indicate that the Raptors are in trouble.

All of that being said, the 2019 Toronto Raptors are one of the few teams to come back from a 2-0 deficit, beating the Milwaukee Bucks in the Eastern Conference Finals en route to winning the championship; that victory looks even more impressive in retrospect, because the Bucks won the NBA title just two years later. The 2022 Raptors have the same coach (Nick Nurse) and three of the same rotation players (Pascal Siakam, Fred VanVleet, OG Anunoby) as the 2019 Raptors--but, of course, the absence of Kawhi Leonard in 2022 is a big difference. When healthy, Leonard is the "dynasty killer." Also, the 2022 Raptors are currently without the services of Scottie Barnes, one of the leading Rookie of the Year candidates and perhaps the second best all-around player on the team.

Why are the 76ers up 2-0, and what--if anything--can the Raptors do to get back in the series?

1) The most valuable player in the series thus far has been Joel Embiid. This is not just about the numbers, which are actually subpar by his lofty standards (25.0 ppg, 13.0 rpg, 2.0 apg, .5 bpg, .452 FG%), but about his impact at both ends of the court: on offense, he is commanding double teams that are creating wide open shots for his teammates (the 76ers are shooting .516 from the field, including .484 from three point range), and on defense he is shutting down the paint, forcing the Raptors to rely on jump shots (the Raptors are shooting .456 from the field, including .371 from three point range). During the regular season, the Raptors went 3-1 versus Philadelphia--including 2-1 when Embiid played--but in the first two games of this series the Raptors fouled too much, rotated poorly to shooters, and thus they got the worst of both worlds: Embiid put the Raptors in foul trouble while scoring from the free throw line, and Embiid's teammates scored very efficiently (see below).

In the opening moments of game two, the Raptors played very aggressively and very physically, challenging Embiid at both ends of the court and taking a quick 11-2 lead, but then Embiid began drawing fouls, the Raptors stopped making shots, and the 76ers took control. 

The Raptors must put more pressure on the 76ers' ballhandlers to make it difficult to feed Embiid, they must do everything possible to deny Embiid opportunities to catch the ball in the paint, and they must defend the paint without fouling but also without giving up so many wide open shots. These are not easy things to do, but they are things that we have seen the Raptors do this season.

Embiid's conditioning and health are better now than at any other time during his playoff career, but a team must win 16 playoff games to be crowned champion. Can Embiid stay healthy and not wear down as the playoffs progress? The version of Embiid we saw in games one and two has a combination of size, strength, and skill not seen in the NBA since prime Shaquille O'Neal, but O'Neal established his legacy by winning four championships and not just by winning two first round home games.

2) Tyrese Maxey has been the leading scorer in the series (30.5 ppg on .688 field goal shooting). He has benefited from all of the defensive attention attracted by Embiid--which is called "gravity" when Stephen Curry is involved--but he has also demonstrated the ability to create his own shot, particularly in open court situations (and even in those situations he benefits from Embiid, because Embiid's defensive impact has fueled the 76ers' fast break). 

3) Tobias Harris seemed to suffer the most after James Harden's arrival in Philadelphia, but he has averaged 23.0 ppg on .640 field goal shooting in the first two games of this series. Harris scored at least 20 points in just four of his last 28 regular season games before scoring 26 and 20 versus Toronto. 

4) James Harden, rumored to be on the verge of being given a long-term contract valued at more than $200 million, has been the 76ers' fourth leading scorer in this series (18.0 ppg) while shooting .346 from the field. He is leading the team in assists (10.0 apg), steals (2.0 spg), and turnovers (3.0 tpg). Harden will never be the first option on a championship team, and it is becoming increasingly apparent that he is unlikely to ever be the second option on a championship team--but, perhaps he can be the third or fourth option on a championship team, with Embiid carrying most of the weight, one or two accurate shooters benefiting from the double teams Embiid draws, and Harden distributing the ball while reducing his shot attempts (and thus minimizing the damage caused by his perennially poor playoff shooting). I still can't picture the 76ers beating Miami, Boston, or Milwaukee (in whatever order you prefer to rank those three teams) in a seven game playoff series, but the 76ers seem to have enough to get by Toronto with Harden serving as the fourth option. How many championships would Harden have now if he had been willing to remain the third option behind Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook?

5) During the regular season, Toronto ranked seventh in points allowed (107.1 ppg) and eighth in rebounding (45.3 rpg) but in this series the Raptors are allowing 121.5 ppg while being outrebounded 40.0 rpg to 35.5 rpg. Barnes grabbed 10 rebounds in game one but was not able to play in game two, and no other Raptor is averaging more than 6.5 rpg in the series. These defensive and rebounding problems are primarily being caused by Embiid's presence, and it is not clear if the Raptors have answers to these challenges, particularly if Barnes remains unavailable.

6) Five Toronto players averaged at least 15.3 ppg during the regular season, but Barnes is out of action and Gary Trent Jr.--who has been impaired by a non-COVID-19 illness--is averaging just 4.5 ppg versus the 76ers.

7) Matisse Thybulle--who started 50 games for the 76ers during the regular season--has played less than 15 mpg during this series, and he will not be available in any games played in Toronto due to his COVID-19 vaccination status. At this point, it does not appear that his absence will have a major impact on this series, but it will change/shorten Philadelphia's rotation, which could matter if foul trouble and/or injuries take place during games three and four (or game six, if game six becomes necessary).

The top two priorities for Toronto are (1) Put more pressure on Embiid without giving up so many open shots to Maxey and Harris, and (2) either get more of a scoring contribution from Trent Jr. or else collectively get more scoring from the rest of the team.

The 76ers are obviously in command right now, but if the Raptors play up to their capabilities and win both home games then the 76ers will be under tremendous pressure in game five at Philadelphia. Embiid has yet to prove that he can sustain a high level of play during an extended playoff run, Harden is one of the worst playoff chokers of all-time, and Doc Rivers has coached multiple teams that blew large leads in playoff series, so if this series reaches 2-2 then there will be a lot for the 76ers and their fans to be concerned about.

Labels: Fred VanVleet, James Harden, Joel Embiid, Pascal Siakam, Philadelphia 76ers, Scottie Barnes, Toronto Raptors, Tyrese Maxey

posted by David Friedman @ 7:01 PM

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Utah, Minnesota, Philadelphia, and Golden State Win on First Day of 2022 NBA Playoffs

It is obvious that the most important playoff games are games in which at least one team faces elimination, but game one is more significant than many casual fans may realize, because game one winners prevail in an NBA playoff series with the seven game format nearly 80% of the time; I first researched this topic for NBCSports.com in 2007, and that percentage has held steady over the years, with the most recent number, per the NBA's 2022 Playoff Guide, being 75.6%. The reason for this is that, barring injuries or other major changes during the series, the matchup advantages that are decisive in the first game tend to be decisive the rest of the way.

Here are thoughts and observations about each game from the first quadrupleheader of the 2022 NBA playoffs.

Utah 99, Dallas 93

As Jeff Van Gundy quipped, "Dallas has home court advantage but Utah has 'health court' advantage"; the left calf injury that Dallas' All-Star guard Luka Doncic sustained in the final game of the regular season forced him to miss game one of this series, and his status for game two is undetermined.

Dallas led 23-20 at the end of the first quarter. The Jazz shot 0-5 from three point range, while Jalen Brunson paced the Mavericks with eight points on 4-9 field goal shooting, and five rebounds.

In the second quarter, the Jazz finally made a three point shot, and they led 45-43 at halftime. Bojan Bogdanovic paced the Jazz with 20 first half points on 8-11 field goal shooting, but Donovan Mitchell scored just two points on 1-9 field goal shooting. Rudy Gobert only scored five points, but he was a force in the paint with 10 rebounds, one blocked shot, and several shots altered. Brunson topped the Mavericks with 12 points, but he shot just 1-6 in the second quarter to finish 5-15 in the first half.

Mitchell erupted for 19 third quarter points on 7-13 field goal shooting as the Jazz took over, and the Jazz led 73-65 entering the fourth quarter.

The Jazz never relinquished their lead in the second half, but their fans undoubtedly became concerned when Maxi Kleber's three pointer pulled the Mavericks to within one point, 92-91, with 2:12 remaining in the game; the Jazz' tendency to squander leads is well-known. This time, though, the Jazz remained steady, got enough defensive stops down the stretch, and closed out the game with Donovan Mitchell making four straight free throws to finish the scoring.

Mitchell scored a game-high 32 points, but he shot just 10-29 from the field. He added six rebounds and six assists, but the star of the game was Bogdanovic, who scored 26 points on 11-20 field goal shooting while contributing five rebounds and four assists. Statistics can often paint a misleading picture, so there is no substitute for watching games with an informed eye: the Jazz' offense worked best when Bogdanovic initiated play in the post or on the wing, because he then either scored over a smaller defender or else drew a double team that opened up opportunities for his teammates. Yes, Bogdanovic "only" had four assists, but his intelligent passing out of the double team created high percentage shots even on plays during which he neither scored nor assisted.

Gobert scored five points and did not make a field goal, but he dominated with a game-high 17 rebounds, a game-high three blocked shots, numerous altered shots, and solid screen-setting. The Jazz would not have won without his contributions.

Brunson led Dallas in both scoring (24 points) and rebounds (seven), but he shot just 9-24 from the field. The Mavericks shot 29-76 (.382) from the field overall, but kept the score close by drawing enough fouls to attempt 34 free throws; Spencer Dinwiddie led the charity stripe parade with 16 free throw attempts, making 10, and he scored 22 points despite shooting just 6-15 from the field. Dinwiddie also had a game-high eight assists.

Minnesota 130, Memphis 117

Minnesota jumped out to a 9-2 lead, extended that margin to 30-17, and remained on top, 41-33, at the end of the first quarter with Anthony Edwards (13 points on 5-7 field goal shooting) and Karl-Anthony Towns (12 points on 5-8 field goal shooting) setting the pace. Ja Morant (15 points on 5-5 field goal shooting) kept the Grizzlies within striking distance.

The Timberwolves' main problem is that they squander too many possessions with turnovers or low percentage shots; after Minnesota wasted several second quarter possessions, Memphis led 49-47 at the 6:52 mark. Minnesota built an eight point lead, but then Memphis trimmed the margin to three, 65-62, by halftime. Morant scored 19 first half points on 6-10 field goal shooting, and he also had five assists. Edwards had 19 points on 7-13 field goal shooting, and Towns had 15 points on 6-9 field goal shooting, but the Timberwolves committed 13 turnovers while the Grizzlies only had six turnovers. Lost possessions early in the game matter just as much as the "clutch" or "late and close" possessions that "stat gurus" emphasize--but if a team shoots a high enough percentage on the "non-squandered" possessions then the turnovers can be overcome, and that proved to be the story in this game as the Timberwolves shot .500 from the field overall, including .390 from three point range. The Timberwolves also took much better care of the ball in the second half, committing just four turnovers.

By the end of the third quarter, Edwards already had 31 points on 11-19 field goal shooting to become the fourth youngest player to score 30 points in his NBA playoff debut.

The Grizzlies only trailed by five (97-92) entering the fourth quarter, but they gave up 33 points in the final stanza and never managed to get closer than three points the rest of the way. The Timberwolves outscored the Grizzlies 13-6 in the final 2:25. The Timberwolves set franchise playoff records for first quarter points and points in a game.

Philadelphia 131, Toronto 111

Golden State 123, Denver 107

The quadrupleheader's nightcap proved to be anticlimactic, as the Nuggets sans Jamal Murray and Michael Porter Jr. just do not have enough firepower to deal with the nearly full strength Warriors. Stephen Curry returned to action after missing a month because of a sprained left foot, and he scored 16 points on 5-13 field goal shooting during 22 minutes off of the bench (he is operating under a minutes restriction, and Coach Steve Kerr decided to not put him back in the starting lineup). Klay Thompson scored 19 points in his first playoff game since blowing out his ACL in the 2019 NBA Finals, but the biggest story for the Warriors was the team-high 30 points scored by Jordan Poole. Poole shot 9-13 from the field overall, including 5-7 from three point range.

The Warriors not only won the three point shooting battle (16-35, compared to 11-35 for the Nuggets), but they outrebounded the Nuggets 41-35. Reigning regular season MVP Nikola Jokic did everything that he could for the Nuggets, amassing 25 points on 12-25 field goal shooting while grabbing a game-high 10 rebounds and dishing for a team-high six assists, but the Nuggets just could not keep pace with the deeper Warriors.

The Nuggets led 27-26 after the first quarter, but were then outscored 64-43 in the next two quarters, and in the final 12 minutes they never seriously threatened to get back in the game. The Warriors figure to only get better as Curry becomes healthier and Thompson's comeback continues to progress, so the outlook for the Nuggets is not good.

Labels: Dallas Mavericks, Denver Nuggets, Golden State Warriors, Memphis Grizzlies, Minnesota Timberwolves, Philadelphia 76ers, Toronto Raptors, Utah Jazz

posted by David Friedman @ 2:38 AM

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2020-21 Eastern Conference Preview

The 2019-20 NBA season was interrupted by the COVID-19 pandemic, and ultimately finished in the Orlando "bubble" with 22 teams invited to play eight seeding games. The Milwaukee Bucks posted the best record in the Eastern Conference for the second consecutive season--and for the second consecutive season the Bucks failed to advance to the NBA Finals, this time losing to the Miami Heat in the second round of the playoffs.

The Bucks traded away Eric Bledsoe and George Hill to acquire Jrue Holiday as a secondary scorer/ playmaker to provide more support for reigning two-time regular season MVP Giannis Antetokounmpo. If that does not prove to be enough to significantly improve the Bucks' postseason results then Antetokounmpo may leave Milwaukee when he becomes a free agent after this season.

The Heat did not make any significant additions, but the most surprising team in the East--if not the entire league--from last season looks poised to make another deep playoff run with a balanced roster led by Jimmy Butler.

The Boston Celtics added Jeff Teague and Tristan Thompson, but lost Gordon Hayward and Enes Kanter. The Celtics look like a top four team in the East, but they do not appear to have quite enough to advance to the NBA Finals. 

The Brooklyn Nets are the most intriguing team in the East. They finished seventh in the East last season--albeit with a losing record--and they now add Kevin Durant and Kyrie Irving to the mix, along with rookie Coach Steve Nash. On paper, the Nets have enough talent to win the East, assuming that Durant and Irving are healthy and play as well as they did before getting hurt. However, there are reasons to be concerned about team chemistry, so I don't see this team leaping straight from the bottom of the playoff pack to the NBA Finals in just one year.

Listed below are the eight teams that I expect to qualify for the Eastern Conference playoffs, ranked based on their likelihood of advancing to the NBA Finals:

1) Milwaukee Bucks: Giannis Antetokounmpo won his second consecutive regular season MVP, increasing his scoring and rebounding (career-high 29.5 ppg, compared to 27.7 ppg in 2018-19; career-high 13.6 rpg compared to 12.5 rpg in 2018-19) while continuing to post excellent numbers for assists (5.6 apg, just short of his career-high 5.9 apg in 2018-19) and field goal percentage (.553, 13th in the league but a bit lower than his career-high .578 in 2018-19). He accomplished all of this even though his minutes played declined for the second straight season. Antetokounmpo remained productive and efficient during the playoffs (26.7 ppg, 13.8 rpg, 5.7 apg, .559 field goal percentage) but he did not have the same impact on winning, and that has been the pattern for him the past couple years: he led his team to the best record in the East in both seasons, but in the playoffs he was not able to lift his team to contender status. 

This brings up the classic debate about superstars, going back at least as far as Wilt Chamberlain, and then extending through a variety of players up to and including Michael Jordan, Kobe Bryant and LeBron James: is the failure to win a title primarily the fault of the superstar due to something lacking in his skill set and/or mentality, or is the failure to win a title primarily the fault of the supporting cast not being good enough? Chamberlain eventually won two titles, but in many quarters he is still depicted--unfairly, in my estimation--as a loser, or at least as someone who did not win as often as he supposedly should have won. Six-time NBA champion Jordan is viewed by many as the greatest winner in NBA history, a view that ignores the reality that Bill Russell led his team to 11 titles during his 13 seasons. Bryant "validated" his three titles won alongside Shaquille O'Neal by winning two more titles--and two Finals MVPs--without O'Neal. James is perhaps the most puzzling all-time great player ever: he has won four titles and four Finals MVPs, but he has lost six times in the Finals, and he blatantly quit in multiple playoff series when his team had a shot to win and advance.

It is easy to speculate or to make bold, unfounded predictions, but the reality is that we will not know Antetokounmpo's story for sure until he is done writing it. I believe that Antetokounmpo has what it takes to lead a team to a title, but I think that he needs to adjust how he plays during the playoffs, and I think that he needs a little bit more postseason help than he has received up to this point. I do not think that his game and/or mentality is limited to the extent that he is precluded from being the best player on a championship team; in other words, I would place him above players such as James Harden, Chris Paul, and Carmelo Anthony, All-Stars who even in their prime lacked one or more necessary factors to be the best player on a championship team. 

As a historian and as a basketball fan, I hope that Antetokounmpo spends his entire career in Milwaukee and that he works on building a franchise from the bottom up the way that Michael Jordan and Isiah Thomas did during their championship-winning careers; for that to happen, this season probably must be his 1991 Jordan season or his 1989 Thomas season, the season in which he wins a title (or, at the very least, advances to the NBA Finals) after falling short in the playoffs during the previous seasons. I have picked Milwaukee before and been wrong, but I will pick the Bucks at least one more time, because I am impressed by Antetokounmpo's skill set and mentality, and I believe that he and his team are still on an upward trajectory.

2) Miami Heat: No one, other than maybe Jimmy Butler, expected the Heat to advance to the 2020 NBA Finals; if you gave Pat Riley a lie detector test prior to the season, I doubt that even he could honestly say that he expected that to happen.

Butler has established a track record that teams get better after he arrives, and they get worse after he leaves, but last season provided the most dramatic bullet point for his expanding resume, as he led the Heat to the Finals in his first season with the team while his former team, the Philadelphia 76ers, bowed out meekly in the first round of the playoffs. 

The Heat did not make any splashy signings in the offseason, though the acquisition of Avery Bradley adds defense and depth. Several teams in the East have improved, but the Heat have a legitimate opportunity to return to the NBA Finals.

3) Boston Celtics: The Celtics are a very good team, a team that has multiple All-Stars--including one,  Jayson Tatum, who looks like a potential future MVP. They have knocked on the door of the NBA Finals three times in the past four years only to lose in the Eastern Conference Finals (2017-18, 2020). Perhaps they are the 1980s Pistons or 1990s Bulls, poised to make a breakthrough; remember that in the 1980s it was not clear whether Detroit, Chicago, Cleveland, Atlanta, or some other team would emerge after Boston declined; only in retrospect can we look at what happened and believe that the rise of the Pistons and then the rise of the Bulls was inevitable. So, while we are focused in the moment on Miami's 2020 Finals run and on what Antetokounmpo's legacy will turn out to be, Boston could end up being the team that gets over the hump.

However, I would say that Boston winning a championship is possible/plausible, but not probable. Yes, the Celtics are very good, but they just don't seem to be quite good enough. The historical parallel for this team would appear to be a team like the 1980s Milwaukee Bucks, a squad that repeatedly went toe to toe with the Philadelphia 76ers and the Boston Celtics--the dominant Eastern Conference teams, winners of the 1981, 1983, 1984, and 1986 NBA titles--only to never make it to the NBA Finals.

4) Brooklyn Nets: The last time Kevin Durant was healthy for a complete season, he led the Golden State Warriors to the second of back to back titles while making a strong case that he, not LeBron James, was the best player in the NBA. He put a scare into Toronto in the 2019 NBA Finals before a season-ending injury forced him out of the series and doomed his Warriors to defeat. If Durant returns to anything approaching that level then the Nets will be legitimate championship contenders, particularly if his buddy Kyrie Irving is also able to return to the form he displayed while winning the 2016 championship alongside LeBron James as a Cleveland Cavalier.

Unfortunately, there is no way to know for sure how much, if anything, Durant lost during his extended absence, and the same is true for Irving. Irving is a wondrously talented ball-handler and clutch scorer, but he has never had much team success as the first option (fortunately for Brooklyn, he will not be the first option as long as a healthy Durant is around), and chemistry questions/issues often seem to surround him. Irving just has a knack for saying or doing things that appear to rub some of his teammates the wrong way. Is Irving a champion who has high standards who expects others to hold themselves to high standards as well, or is he a brooding malcontent who is more trouble than he is worth? The truth is probably more complex than the blunt, simple narratives that the media love to portray. If Durant is healthy and productive then any drama associated with Irving will likely be muted, if not eliminated. 

This is a tough team to handicap. The best case scenario is obvious and plausible: advance to the NBA Finals and possibly even win the title. The worst case scenario is equally obvious and plausible: Durant and/or Irving get hurt, chemistry issues erupt, the team either misses the playoffs or else loses in the first round.

My best estimate is that reality will fall somewhere in the middle: a top four seed, a chance to make a deep playoff run if everything breaks right, but most likely a second round loss that will be a stepping stone for possible title contention in the following years.

5) Philadelphia 76ers: Daryl Morey left the Houston Rockets with the stated intention of spending more time with his family, only to quickly sign up to be the Philadelphia 76ers' President of Basketball Operations, which is a de facto demotion for Elton Brand even though Brand retains his position as the franchise's General Manager. It is clear that Morey, not Brand, will be the final decision maker on player personnel and the coaching staff.

Morey proved at least two things in Houston: (1) He does not know how to build a championship team; (2) he is rather skilled at finding undervalued role players and plugging them into his team's rotation without overpaying them. His moves since arriving to Philadelphia fit both molds, as the 76ers got rid of Al Horford and Josh Richardson while acquiring Dwight Howard, Danny Green, Seth Curry, and Terrance Ferguson. Those are not bad moves, but they are also not moves that shake up the balance of power in the East or lift the 76ers very much in the standings.

The 76ers finished sixth in the East last season before being swept by Boston in the first round. The 76ers may move up to fifth in 2021, but they will almost certainly once again be first round fodder.

The 76ers first hired "stat guru" Sam Hinkie and now they are relying on "stat guru" Daryl Morey but, contrary to a recent book title, it is not accurate to say that they were or are "Tanking to the Top." If anything, it could be argued that the Joel Embiid-Ben Simmons duo has peaked, and is sliding toward mediocrity. 

6) Toronto Raptors: The Raptors surprised me--and many other people--by finishing with the second best record in the East despite losing the services of 2019 Finals MVP Kawhi Leonard. Toronto lost a tough, seven game second round series to Boston, but the Raptors did nothing substantive to improve their roster during the offseason, and they lost two of the big men who contributed to their championship run, Serge Ibaka and Marc Gasol.

Nick Nurse has proven to be an excellent coach, Pascal Siakam blossomed into an All-Star, and Fred VanVleet--who the Raptors re-signed during the offseason--looks like a future All-Star but losing three key rotation players in two years is tough to overcome. The Raptors are still a playoff team, but they are not a team that will advance past the first round.  

7) Indiana Pacers: The Pacers replaced Coach Nate McMillan with Nate Bjorkgren (an assistant coach for the 2019 NBA champion Toronto Raptors), but they made no significant roster moves. This team has lost in the first round of the playoffs five years in a row, and that trend will almost certainly continue in 2021.

8) Washington Wizards: Acquiring All-NBA guard Russell Westbrook in exchange for John Wall, who has not played an NBA game in more than two years due to various injuries, immediately elevates the Wizards to playoff status. Westbrook, a former regular season MVP (2017), played at an MVP level for about two months last season prior to the league shutting down due to COVID-19. He adjusted pretty quickly to playing alongside James Harden before lifting his game during that two month stretch, but Westbrook's game did not return to an MVP level after he contracted COVID-19 and then suffered a league injury in the "bubble." Assuming that Westbrook is fully healthy now, there is no reason to think that he cannot resume playing at an MVP level; he should be much more comfortable in Washington playing for his former Oklahoma City Coach Scott Brooks than he was playing in Houston as part of the "James Harden Dribble, Dribble, Dribble Show."

The Wizards finished ninth in the Eastern Conference last season, and an MVP caliber player is typically worth at least 15 wins over the course of an 82 game season--or 13 games during a 72 game season--so if all other factors are relatively equal then it is reasonable to expect the Wizards to improve from 25-47 to 38-32, give or take a couple wins.

The rest of the East figures to be rather dismal. The Orlando Magic were one of two East teams to make the playoffs last season with a sub-.500 record, but the other team (Brooklyn) just added Kevin Durant and Kyrie Irving, while the Magic's main addition is first round pick Cole Anthony. It is not difficult to project Washington moving past the Magic, pushing the Magic out of the playoff picture and into the Draft Lottery. The remaining East teams each had a winning percentage of .354 or worse (equivalent to a 29-53 record in an 82 game season or a 25-47 record in a 72 game season); all of those teams have major weaknesses, and none of them made offseason moves that are likely to have a significant enough impact on winning during the upcoming season to move into the top eight in the standings, but if I had to pick one team from the "Subpar Seven" to be a sleeper I would say to keep an eye on Detroit, a team that moved out a lot of players and pulled off a bit of a surprise by acquiring Jeremi Grant. The Pistons probably did not do enough to jump from 20-46 to playoff contention in one season but if there is one sleeper among these "sleeping" teams they could be it. The Charlotte Hornets signed Gordon Hayward and drafted LaMelo Ball, so they should be better than 23-42 this season but it does not seem likely that those two players are enough to carry the Hornets to the postseason.

**********
Note:

I correctly picked seven of the eight 2020 Eastern Conference playoff teams. Here are my statistics for previous seasons:

2019: 6/8
2018: 6/8
2017: 5/8
2016: 5/8
2015: 5/8
2014: 6/8
2013: 7/8
2012: 8/8
2011: 5/8
2010: 6/8
2009: 6/8
2008: 5/8
2007: 7/8
2006: 6/8

2006-2020 Total: 90/120 (.750)

Labels: Boston Celtics, Brooklyn Nets, Indiana Pacers, Miami Heat, Milwaukee Bucks, Philadelphia 76ers, Toronto Raptors, Washington Wizards

posted by David Friedman @ 12:33 PM

2 comments