Brunson Burner Singes Spurs as Knicks Steal Game One of the NBA Finals
The New York Knicks built a 14-7 first quarter lead but had to come back from a 14 point third quarter deficit to earn a 105-95 win versus the San Antonio Spurs in game one of the NBA Finals. The Knicks shot 39-94 (.415) from the field and were outrebounded 54-49, but they held the Spurs to 32-89 (.360) field goal shooting while forcing 13 turnovers and committing just nine turnovers (including just one in the decisive second half). The Knicks outscored the Spurs in the paint 50-42, won the second chance scoring battle 23-14, and only narrowly trailed in fast break points (15-12) even though the Spurs are a younger and more athletic team. The Knicks are the seventh team in NBA history to win at least 12 consecutive playoff games, and just the third to do so in a single postseason, joining the 1999 Spurs (who also won 12 games in a row) and the 2017 Golden State Warriors (who won 15 games in a row); both of those teams won the NBA title.
Jalen Brunson overcame a poor first quarter (three points on 1-7 field goal shooting) to finish with a game-high 30 points on 12-31 field goal shooting. Along the way, he battled early injuries to his right knee and left ankle that caused him to miss some time during the first half. Brunson had just two assists and a team-high four turnovers, but he dominated the fourth quarter with 13 points on 5-9 field goal shooting as the Knicks outscored the Spurs 29-19 in the final stanza; basketball has a lot of strategy, but sometimes--particularly in close games--it comes down to something as simple as which team's star player makes clutch shots.
Karl-Anthony Towns had 18 points, 12 rebounds, four assists, and the game's second best plus/minus number (+14). His individual defense versus Victor Wembanyama was excellent, and he also did a superb job of attacking Wembanyama's defense by driving aggressively to the hoop when he had the ball and crashing the offensive boards (game-high tying four offensive rebounds) when he did not have the ball. I picked the Spurs to beat the Knicks, but I noted, "Towns' effectiveness at both ends of the court--and whether he avoids committing silly fouls--will be a key factor in this series." Winning basketball is about a lot more than just crunching numbers--this is a recurring theme in my NBA coverage--and Towns' impact in game one goes well beyond what his boxscore numbers suggest and even what his plus/minus number indicates. ESPN's Charles Barkley said that Towns was the Knicks' most valuable player in this game, and that Towns will be the key player for the whole series.
Josh Hart had a game-high +22 plus/minus number despite scoring just three points on 1-5 field goal shooting; he made his impact felt all over the court with a game-high 15 rebounds, a game-high six assists, and a game-high four steals (matching all of the Spurs combined).
OG Anunoby's boxscore numbers do not jump off of the page (17 points, three rebounds, -6 plus/minus number), but he had 12 points and a +5 plus/minus number in the fourth quarter with the game up for grabs.
Landry Shamet continued his hot shooting and timely scoring with 13 points in 33 minutes off of the bench. He was the only New York reserve who played more than 20 minutes or scored more than 10 points.
Mitchell Robinson survived perhaps the world's most famous broken pinkie to compile six rebounds in 13 minutes off of the bench.
Victor Wembanyama led the Spurs in scoring (26 points), rebounds (12), and blocked shots (three) but he also had a game-high six turnovers. He scored 11 of the Spurs' 19 fourth quarter points, but he shot just 3-8 from the field; overall, Wembanyama shot 6-21 from the field, including 2-9 from beyond the arc, and those numbers are not good enough for a player of his caliber: Wembanyama must have a higher field goal percentage, and he must shoot fewer three pointers--and it should be obvious that the solution to both equations involves attacking the paint instead of being satisfied to float around the perimeter.
Stephon Castle contributed 17 points and eight rebounds, Julian Champagnie added 16 points and 10 rebounds, and Dylan Harper had 16 points and eight rebounds off of the bench. Champagnie provided a major first half spark (15 points, 5-6 three point field goal shooting, six rebounds), but he disappeared in the second half after the Knicks stopped leaving him wide open.
As is the case with many NBA games, this was a game of runs. The Knicks could not sustain their early lead, and by the end of the first quarter the Spurs were up, 27-19. The Knicks briefly went ahead in the second quarter, but never by more than one point, and by halftime the Spurs enjoyed a 55-48 advantage. Both teams struggled to shoot .400 from the field in the first half, but the Spurs had three fewer turnovers and 10 more free throws made. The Spurs opened the third quarter with a 10-3 run in the first 5:29 with Wembanyama sinking four free throws, Castle scoring on a drive, and Castle scoring on a putback as well as Harper converting a floater. The tide shifted shortly after Luke Kornet subbed in for Wembanyama; in the next five minutes, the Knicks used a 20-10 burst to tie the game at 71, and the score was 76-76 heading into the fourth quarter.
Neither team led by more than five points in the fourth quarter until Brunson scored a fast break layup at the 6:34 mark to put the Knicks up, 92-86. After play was halted briefly because an idiot ran onto the court from the stands, the Spurs won the ensuing jump ball but the Knicks turned Champagnie's missed three pointer into a Brunson fast break layup. Wembanyama answered with a three pointer, followed by Champagnie splitting a pair of free throws and Wembanyama completing a three point play after Towns fouled him on a drive. Wembanyama made two more free throws to put the Spurs up 95-94 at the 2:16 mark, but after Anunoby missed a three pointer Brunson tipped the long rebound to Mikal Bridges, who passed back to Brunson in the right corner for a dagger three pointer with 1:50 remaining to give the Knicks a lead that they would not relinquish. The Knicks outscored the Spurs 11-0 in the final 1:50.
Each game in a seven game series has its own rhythm, but matchup advantages remain constant unless impacted by foul trouble or injuries. For the Spurs to win game two and eventually win the series, they need Wembanyama to impose his presence in the paint at both ends of the court; in game one, he let Towns push him to the perimeter on offense far too often, and when the Spurs were on defense the Knicks cleverly used ball movement and player movement to open up driving lanes to attack the paint at angles that made it difficult for Wembanyama to guard his man and protect the rim. The Spurs seem to have an armada of rangy, athletic wings who can make life difficult for Brunson, but after Brunson's slow first quarter start he shot 11-24 the rest of the way and he dominated the fourth quarter. The Spurs controlled significant portions of game one and only trailed 97-95 with less than 90 seconds left in the game, so it is not like they need to make wholesale changes--or the much talked about "adjustments"--to win game two; if they play the way that they played for most of the regular season and most of the playoffs then they will put themselves in position to be successful.
All that being said, winning game one is important. Since the NBA went to the 16 team playoff format in 1984, the game one winner in the NBA Finals eventually won the series 28 times in 42 attempts (.667 winning percentage), and that trend has held true recently: the game one winner has won the NBA finals seven times in the past 10 years. Also, the overall series winning percentage of game one winners since 1984 is .771, a number that is inflated a bit by the large number of first round mismatches in which the higher seeded team wins the first game and then cruises to a series victory. The oft-repeated notion that game one is a "feel out game" is not supported by the numbers; historically, game one is a reliable indicator of who will win the series, and it is amusing that people who claim to rely on "analytics" seem to struggle to understand this.
Labels: Dylan Harper, Jalen Brunson, Josh Hart, Julian Champagnie, Karl-Anthony Towns, New York Knicks, OG Anunoby, San Antonio Spurs, Stephon Castle, Victor Wembanyama
posted by David Friedman @ 2:45 AM
3 Comments:
I was a bit shocked that Mitch Johnson didn’t call a timeout immediately after Brunson’s high-arcing circus shot that put New York up six with 37.8 seconds remaining. The Spurs casually inbounded the ball and squandered about eight crucial seconds before Wembanyama missed a three. Even more bizarrely, the Spurs didn’t start intentionally fouling the Knicks until the game was out of reach.
I also don’t think that Wembanyama should try to be a 7-4 version of Stephen Curry with 9 of his 21 shot attempts being threes. He bails out the other team’s defense when he settles for threes while camping out around the perimeter as opposed to relentlessly punishing them in the paint on offense the same way he does on defense. Wembanyama doesn’t really have any refined low post moves at this point in his career but he can simply will his way to the basket with his superhuman physical attributes.
I've long been skeptical of KAT as a player but I have to admit he has been proving me wrong these playoffs. He had an excellent all-around game last night and has been great this post-season.
I picked the Spurs to win this series because Jalen Brunson is nominally the Knicks best player at 6'2. But if KAT can continue to muscle Wemby out of the paint and drive to the basket like last night, he should be the Knicks most valuable player for this series.
Michael:
Coaches have different strategies about late game timeouts based on the personnel on the court, the deficit, and the flow of the game. Presumably, Johnson thought that based on the personnel on the court his team could get a better shot in the flow of the game than playing against a set defense after giving the Knicks an opportunity to change their personnel. Jeff Van Gundy used to say that coaching decisions, shot selection, and other aspects of a game should be evaluated based on how sound the thought process was as opposed to just looking at the outcome. In other words, the fact that a team lost does not prove that the team's strategy was wrong. I don't know how often the Spurs trailed by that exact margin with approximately that much time remaining this season, but it would be interesting to see if Johnson has a consistent approach for such situations---and he may not, because there are so many variables to consider.
For the most part this season, Wembanyama has done much better with shot selection in general and with cutting down on three point field goal attempts, but he regressed in that regard last night. However, some credit should go to the Knicks for attacking him at both ends of the court, which probably fatigued him. Wembanyama's body does not seem like it can handle heavy minutes, and I also wonder (as I noted in a different thread) how likely it is that he can stay healthy and productive for a long career.
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