20 Second Timeout

Don Nelson Lived a Full Basketball Life

Last Sunday, Don Nelson--who won five NBA titles as a player for the Boston Celtics before becoming one of the greatest coaches in NBA history--passed away at the age of 86. Nelson was a basketball innovator. He may not have originated the "point forward" concept, but during his tenure in Milwaukee he popularized it with players such as Marques Johnson and Paul Pressey. Pressey averaged 7.8 apg in 1985-86, setting a record for small forwards that stood until LeBron James averaged 8.6 apg in 2009-10. Nelson's teams often played "small ball," albeit out of necessity as much as by choice. Nelson tinkered with having his center shoot three pointers decades before teams widely adopted the practice of having big men operate behind the three point arc on offense. Nelson held the NBA record for regular season coaching wins from 2010-2022, surpassing Lenny Wilkens before being overtaken by Gregg Popovich, who served under him as an assistant coach during Nelson's first tenure in Golden State. Nelson earned the NBA Coach of the Year award in 1983, 1985, and 1992. Popovich and Pat Riley are the only other three-time winners of that award, though it should be noted that Larry Brown won the ABA Coach of the Year award three times before also winning the NBA Coach of the Year award once. In addition to his significant NBA coaching success, Nelson coached "Dream Team II" to the gold medal in the 1994 FIBA World Championship two years after the original Dream Team won the Olympic gold medal.

Nelson averaged 10.3 ppg and 4.9 rpg in his 14 season NBA playing career before leaving an indelible mark as a creative and shrewd coach. He spent his final 12 seasons for the Celtics after playing for the Chicago Zephyrs (which became the team now known as the Washington Wizards) as a rookie before doing a two year stint with the L.A. Lakers. Nelson never averaged 20 ppg or 10 rpg in a season, but he had some notable moments and achievements as a player, including hitting a shot just before the shot clock buzzer to give the Celtics a 105-102 lead over the Lakers with a little over a minute to go in game seven of the 1969 NBA Finals. Nelson's shot hit the back of the rim and bounced high in the air before nestling into the net, providing a cushion before the Celtics won 108-106 at L.A. to claim the 11th and final championship of the Bill Russell era. Nelson also ranked fourth in playoff scoring (11.4 ppg) for the 1974 NBA champion Celtics, and he led the NBA in field goal percentage (.539) in his second to last season (1974-75).

After Nelson retired in 1976, he started the next season with the Milwaukee Bucks as an assistant to Larry Costello before Costello resigned with a 3-15 record. Nelson became the head coach, and the Bucks went 27-37 the rest of the way. The Bucks missed the playoffs that season, advanced to the second round the next season, and then missed the playoffs again in 1979 before reaching the playoffs for eight straight years with Nelson at the helm. That run included seven straight Central Division titles (1980-86) and three Eastern Conference Finals appearances (1983-84, 1986). Nelson's Bucks never made it to the NBA Finals because either Larry Bird's Boston Celtics or Julius Erving's Philadelphia 76ers blocked their path each time they went on a deep playoff run. Nelson resigned after the 1986-87 season.

Nelson did some national color commentary work during the 1987-88 season before the Golden State Warriors hired him prior to the 1988-89 season. Nelson's seven years with the Warriors are most remembered for the spectacular play of the "Run TMC" trio, even though Tim Hardaway, Mitch Richmond, and Chris Mullin were only teammates for a little over two years. After Nelson's passing, Hardaway reflected on his impact: "Nellie was ahead of his time and there was nobody else like him. He had an incredible impact on my career and on the game of basketball. I'm going to miss him, and my thoughts and prayers are with Joy, Donnie and the entire Nelson family."

The Warriors led the NBA in scoring (116.3 ppg) in 1989-90, the Hall of Fame trio's first season together, but the Warriors ranked second to last in the league in points allowed (119.8 ppg) and finished with a 37-45 record. The Warriors went 44-38 in 1990-91, the team's best record since 1981-82. Prior to the 1991-92 season, the Warriors traded Richmond for the rights to Billy Owens. Owens finished third in Rookie of the Year voting as the Warriors went 55-27, their best record since the defending NBA champion Warriors went 59-23 in 1975-76. Injuries took a major toll in 1992-93 as the Warriors plummeted to 34-48, but they bounced back to 50-32 in 1993-94. Nelson clashed with Chris Webber, the team's second leading scorer and the NBA's 1994 Rookie of the Year, so Nelson resigned midway through the 1994-95 season. The Warriors did not make the playoffs again until 2007, the first season of Nelson's second stint as Golden State's coach.

Nelson coached the New York Knicks for less than a full season, guiding the team to a 34-25 record before being fired during the 1995-96 season. After one season away from coaching, Nelson served as the general manager and coach of the Dallas Mavericks starting in 1997. Nelson orchestrated the trades that resulted in the Mavericks acquiring future Hall of Famers Dirk Nowitzki and Steve Nash. Nowitzki posted a heartfelt tribute to his former coach and mentor:

Nellie… You didn't just draft me. You believed in me. You saw things in my game before I ever realized I could do them. I've said it a million times and I will always say it: I don't think my career could have turned out how it did without you being my first coach and giving me the freedom to play my game. I can only say THANK YOU. For everything. RIP legend.

The Mavericks had not made the playoffs since 1990 before Nelson guided them to four straight playoff appearances (2001-04), including a 60-22 season capped by a Western Conference Finals run in 2003. 

Nelson resigned as Dallas' coach late in the 2004-05 season and appointed Avery Johnson as his successor. After the season ended, Nelson resigned as general manager, tapping his son Donnie as his replacement. Nelson took a year off from coaching before going back to Golden State. The Warriors improved from 34-48 to 42-40 to earn the eighth playoff seed. Nelson outcoached his protege Avery Johnson as Nelson's Warriors authored one of the most memorable upsets in NBA playoff history by beating the top seeded 67-15 Mavericks 4-2 in the first round of the 2007 playoffs. The "We Believe" Warriors lost 4-1 in the second round. 

The Warriors improved to 48-34 next season, but missed the playoffs in a stacked Western Conference. That season, Nelson and Webber had a rapprochement, and Webber rejoined the Warriors, though he only played nine games before injuries forced him to retire. During the next two seasons, free agency and trades depleted the roster, but before departing the Warriors prior to the 2010-11 season Nelson laid the foundation for the team's future championship success by pushing the front office to select Stephen Curry with the seventh overall selection in the 2009 NBA Draft. It may be hard to imagine now, but at that time it was far from clear that Curry would be an All-Star, let alone an all-time great. The Warriors went 26-56 in Nelson's last season as Curry averaged 17.5 ppg and 5.9 apg to finish second to Tyreke Evans in Rookie of the Year voting.

Curry reacted to Nelson's passing with this statement:

One of the big reasons I was drafted by the Warriors was because of Don Nelson. The story is he never liked rookies, but from Day 1 he challenged me and gave me an opportunity to be my best self on the court. He taught me a lot during our one season together and I'll never forget the night he became the winningest coach in NBA history in Minnesota. We were so happy for him.

He had an immeasurable impact on the sport and will go down as one of the greatest minds in the history of the game. He's a true icon and will be missed by the countless number of people he touched, including myself, during a legendary career.

Nelson displayed keen insights in player evaluation not only in terms of the players he drafted and molded but also in some of his public comments about various players. For example, unlike many so-called experts who ignorantly bashed Kobe Bryant as selfish, Nelson fully appreciated Bryant's greatness, as indicated by this 2008 quote: "He allows these guys to do their thing and be successful and encourages them. He makes them even better than they are by playing alongside of him. He truly makes everybody better when he's on the floor with them. And you couldn't say that five years ago. But now you can say it. That's why he's such a complete player. When coaches look at players, we look at them a little bit differently. Do they make their surrounding teammates better? The answer with him is yes, yes, yes."

In another comment during Bryant's MVP-winning 2007-08 season, Nelson declared, "Kobe now has a grasp on the game like no other player and he controls it when he wants to. He makes the players alongside him succeed and he is a real leader out there. He has the whole package going for him; he is not just the best player in the league but probably the best leader. He could get 50 any time, I'm sure."

As part of the NBA's 50th anniversary celebration in 1996-97, Nelson was named one of the top 10 NBA coaches of all-time, and when the NBA celebrated its 75th anniversary in 2021-22 Nelson was honored as one of the top 15 NBA coaches of all-time. Despite not winning an NBA title, Nelson will long be remembered as one of the greatest and most innovative NBA coaches.

Labels: Boston Celtics, Chris Mullin, Dallas Mavericks, Dirk Nowitzki, Don Nelson, Golden State Warriors, Marques Johnson, Milwaukee Bucks, Mitch Richmond, New York Knicks, Paul Pressey, Steve Nash, Tim Hardaway

posted by David Friedman @ 12:32 PM

0 comments

Jalen Brunson Erupts for 45 Points as Knicks Beat Spurs 94-90 to Capture First NBA Title Since 1973

The 2026 NBA Finals pattern is familiar by now: the San Antonio Spurs take a double digit first quarter lead before the New York Knicks storm back to win a close game, and that happened again in game five. The Knicks' 94-90 victory enabled them to win their first NBA title since 1973. The Spurs raced out to an 18-8 first quarter lead and were ahead 31-15 at the 8:29 mark of the second quarter before the Knicks slashed the margin to just 42-37 at halftime. The Spurs were on top 70-55 with just 2:25 to go in the third quarter and still had a 10 point lead (83-73) as late as the 7:43 mark of the fourth quarter, but the Knicks outscored the Spurs 21-7 the rest of the way. The Knicks are the first NBA champions with four comeback wins of at least 10 points each in the NBA Finals in the past 50 years. 

As is often the case in closeout games, neither team shot well: the Knicks shot 31-87 (.356) from the field, and the Spurs shot 33-86 (.384) from the field. The biggest difference in a hard fought game was Jalen Brunson's efficient and clutch scoring: Brunson scored 45 points on 14-27 field goal shooting to earn the 2026 Bill Russell NBA Finals MVP after averaging 32.6 ppg, 4.6 apg, 4.2 rpg and 2.0 spg in the NBA Finals with shooting splits of .421/.389/.860. Brunson is the first Knick to score at least 40 points in an NBA Finals game, and the first player to score at least 15 points in the fourth quarter of an NBA Finals-clinching win since Michael Jordan in 1998. He also tied the record for most points scored in a Finals-clinching win on the road, and he tied Jordan for the third most points in any Finals-clinching win, trailing only Giannis Antetokounmpo's 50 in 2021 and Bob Pettit's 50 in 1958. 

Brunson was the only Knick to make more than half of his field goal attempts as his teammates combined to shoot just 17-60 (.283) from the field. Mikal Bridges was the Knicks' second leading scorer with 14 points on 5-10 field goal shooting, and he had a team-high four assists. Josh Hart added 13 points on 4-11 field goal shooting and a team-high 11 rebounds while accumulating a team-high +15 plus/minus number. OG Anunoby had 11 points on 3-11 field goal shooting, eight rebounds, and a game-high tying three steals. For the series, Anunoby ranked second on the team in scoring (21.2 ppg) and led the Knicks in blocked shots (1.4 bpg) while averaging 4.8 rpg and posting shooting splits of .525/.500/.867. 

Brunson and Anunoby were the only Knicks who scored a point until the 9:04 mark of the second quarter, when Karl-Anthony Towns made his only field goal of the game to cut the Spurs' lead to 28-15. Towns finished with just two points on 1-7 field goal shooting while committing a game-high five turnovers, but he also had 10 rebounds and a game-high tying three steals before fouling out after playing just 23 minutes. Towns averaged 13.0 ppg (third on the team), 10.6 rpg (first on the team), 2.4 apg, and 1.0 bpg in the NBA Finals with shooting splits of .490/.333/1.000.

The Knicks did not get much production from their bench with the notable exception of Mitchell Robinson, who had 10 rebounds in 20 minutes, including an important offensive rebound with 22.2 seconds remaining in the fourth quarter and the Knicks clinging to a 91-88 lead.

Dylan Harper led the Spurs with 25 points on 10-19 field goal shooting in 31 minutes off of the bench. He also had five rebounds, four assists, and no turnovers, so his -12 plus/minus number is paradoxical and an example of why plus/minus is not always meaningful in small sample sizes. 

Victor Wembanyama had 19 points, a game-high 14 rebounds, and a game-high five blocked shots, but he shot just 7-19 from the field--including 1-6 from three point range--and he was almost invisible in the fourth quarter: three points on 1-5 field goal shooting, two rebounds, no blocked shots. He looked like he ran out of gas, and that will be an interesting trend to monitor throughout his career: will Wembanyama stay healthy enough and become fit enough to not just survive a long regular season and a deep playoff run but to be dominant late in games when his team needs him the most? Wembanyama averaged 26.0 ppg, 11.2 rpg, 2.6 apg, and 3.6 bpg in his first NBA Finals with shooting splits of .423/.273/.786. He ranked second on the Spurs with 33 three point field goal attempts, and that number is too high for a player who can be so dominant in the paint, particularly considering that he shot very poorly from beyond the arc in this series.

Julian Champagnie (14 points, seven rebounds) and Devin Vassell (12 points, seven rebounds) had solid performances, but the Spurs' starting backcourt struggled: De'Aaron Fox had seven points on 3-15 field goal shooting plus a game-high five assists, and Stephon Castle contributed just six points on 1-10 field goal shooting along with five rebounds and four assists. Castle ranked third on the team in scoring in the Finals (14.6 ppg) but shot just .377 from the field, and Fox tied Vassell for fourth in scoring (12.8 ppg) while shooting .343 from the field. Vassell was the Spurs' only rotation player who shot better than .500 from the field (.537) in the Finals.

The teams combined to miss their first six field goal attempts of the game, foreshadowing how this contest would be more about grit than about high octane offense. Wembanyama opened the scoring with a fast break dunk at the 9:48 mark of the first quarter (the official play by play sheet says that Wembanyama made the shot at 9:44). Brunson answered with a three pointer, but the Knicks started the game shooting 2-13 from the field and they trailed 23-13 by the end of the first quarter. The Knicks' 13 first quarter points tied for the second fewest first quarter points in an NBA Finals game in the shot clock era, which dates back to the 1954-55 season. Harper led the Spurs with seven first quarter points, while Wembanyama stuffed the box score with six points, four rebounds, and three blocked shots. Brunson paced the Knicks with eight points on 3-6 field goal shooting, but his teammates scored just five points on 1-16 field goal shooting; the notion that the Knicks were just 36 minutes of game time away from becoming NBA champions seemed farfetched if not preposterous--until one recalled that the Knicks erased a 29 point second half deficit in game four. 

Neither team shot well in the second quarter, but the Knicks scored 24 points on 9-22 (.409) field goal shooting to chip away at the Spurs' lead. With their season on the line, the Spurs managed just 19 second quarter points on 6-23 (.231) field goal shooting, and they needed Vassell's fadeaway jumper at the buzzer to have a 42-37 halftime lead. Brunson led both teams with 16 first half points, but he was just warming up for a fantastic finish. Harper (11 points) was the only Spur who scored in double figures in the first half.

The Spurs scored 30 third quarter points on 11-20 (.550) field goal shooting, but Brunson kept the Knicks in contact by scoring 14 of his team's 28 third quarter points. A play that could have been a turning point happened at the 5:29 mark of the third quarter. After Brunson drilled a top of the key three pointer to slash the Spurs' lead to 59-53, his left foot landed on top of Wembanyama's right foot and Brunson slumped to the floor holding his left ankle. By rule, that should have been deemed a flagrant foul on Wembanyama for interfering with Brunson's landing area--and that rule is in place because of the dirty play by Zaza Pachulia that put Kawhi Leonard out of action in game one of the 2017 Western Conference Finals when Leonard's Spurs enjoyed a 23 point lead versus the Golden State Warriors. The Warriors rallied to win that game, and then swept the next three games with Leonard unable to play due to the ankle injury he suffered from the Pachulia foul. Imagine if Brunson had not been able to play for the rest of game five or beyond; that could have altered not just the game but the entire series. Also, if Wembanyama had been called for a flagrant foul then based on his total flagrant foul points in the 2026 playoffs he would have been automatically suspended for game six of the NBA Finals if game six had been necessary (or for his next regular season game since the Knicks won game five). Brunson admitted after the game that he was hurting but that he blocked out the pain to focus on finishing the job. The NBA must do a better job of consistently enforcing its rules, particularly rules that relate to player safety. 

The fourth quarter was the Brunson show: 15 points on 4-6 field goal shooting to nearly match the Spurs' scoring output in the final 12 minutes (18 points) by himself. Brunson hit three free throws with 3:40 remaining to give the Knicks their first lead (86-85) since the 7:49 mark of the first quarter. The Spurs later tied the score once, but they never led again. Late game free throw shooting was a problem for both teams, but more so for the Spurs because they trailed and needed to score quickly. In the final 26.1 seconds, Hart, Anunoby, and Bridges each split a pair of free throws before Harper missed two free throws. Anunoby finally sealed the win by making one out of two free throws with 7.7 seconds left, after which Wembanyama missed a long three pointer. 

In my NBA Finals Preview, I picked the Spurs to win in six games but said that the Knicks could beat the Spurs if the Knicks won the possession game by outrebounding the Spurs and by committing fewer turnovers than the Spurs. The Knicks outscored the Spurs 522-510 in the series, and they won the possession battle both on the boards (226-222) and by committing fewer turnovers (60 for the Spurs, 56 for the Knicks). It is interesting to note that although Wembanyama was the top shot blocker in the series by a wide margin (18-7 over Anunoby), overall the Spurs led the Knicks in blocked shots by just 29-24. Even though the Knicks won the series 4-1, this was a closely contested series decided by the Knicks' ability to be more efficient in the clutch moments and by the Knicks' slight edge in the possession game.

Wembanyama is portrayed as the player of the future and the Spurs are talked about as the team of the future, but all of that is just speculation; the reality is that the Knicks are the team of right now, and a team that will be remembered in New York for at least as long as the 53 year NBA title drought that they ended.

Mike Brown has been doubted and unfairly criticized by media members, but now he has an NBA championship ring as a head coach to add to the four championships he earned as an assistant coach with San Antonio (2003) and Golden State (2017, 2018, 2022). 

Jalen Brunson has been doubted throughout his NBA career, but he silenced his critics with his clutch shooting and his focused leadership; in 2024, I pointed out that most 6-4 and under guards are not able to lead a team to an NBA title while suggesting that Brunson may prove to be the exception to that general rule. Hall of Famer Becky Hammon was perhaps the most vocal of many commentators who questioned whether Brunson could be the best player on an NBA championship team. Asked what he would say to his critics after winning an NBA Finals MVP and an NBA title, Brunson did not ask for or demand respect but instead he replied, "I didn't respond to them then, and I'm damn sure not going to respond to them now." 

Karl-Anthony Towns has not only been doubted; he has been mocked for his playing style and for his tendency to accumulate fouls in bunches, but during this season and this playoff run he displayed his versatile basketball talents and his willingness to do whatever his team needs him to do to win, even at the cost of his personal statistics. In moments of triumph, some people express bitterness or defiance, but Towns took a different route, thanking his former teammates with the Minnesota Timberwolves for helping him grow as a player. 

The Knicks overcame the doubters to beat a talented team and win a championship that will forever have a special place in the annals of New York sports lore. 

Labels: Dylan Harper, Jalen Brunson, Karl-Anthony Towns, New York Knicks, OG Anunoby, San Antonio Spurs, Stephon Castle, Victor Wembanyama

posted by David Friedman @ 4:01 AM

6 comments

Anunoby Game-Winning Tip-In Caps Largest Comeback in NBA Finals History as Knicks Take 3-1 Lead Over Spurs

Depending on your perspective, game four of the NBA Finals either featured the greatest comeback or the greatest collapse in NBA Finals history; the San Antonio Spurs led the New York Knicks 81-52 with 9:40 remaining in the third quarter, but OG Anunoby's tip-in of Jalen Brunson's missed three pointer with 1.2 seconds left in the fourth quarter proved to be the game-winning shot as the Knicks prevailed 107-106 to take a 3-1 series lead. The Knicks accomplished the largest comeback in NBA Finals history, and the largest halftime comeback in NBA playoff history. This series has repeatedly featured wild momentum swings--with double digit leads repeatedly being built and squandered by both teams--but at the end the games have consistently been close, and this is just the second NBA Finals with multiple games decided by just one point, with the first being the 1975 Finals when Rick Barry's Golden State Warriors swept the Washington Bullets. 

Brunson scored a game-high 36 points on 12-25 field goal shooting while dishing for a game-high tying seven assists, grabbing five rebounds, and swiping a team-high three steals in a game-high 44 minutes. Anunoby had 33 points on 10-15 field goal shooting, including 7-9 from three point range. His blocked shot on De'Aaron Fox' layup attempt with 11.1 seconds remaining in the fourth quarter gave the Knicks the opportunity to take the lead and win the game. Karl-Anthony Towns was the Knicks' only other double figure scorer with 13 points plus a team-high 10 rebounds and a game-high +17 plus/minus numbe. Special mention must be made of reserve guard Jose Alvarado, the Knicks' fourth leading scorer with eight points on 3-4 field goal shooting in 16 minutes. Alvarado tied Brunson and Josh Hart (six points, eight rebounds, six assists, two steals) for the team's second best plus/minus number (+11). Alvarado scored all of his points in the fourth quarter when he took the place of the ineffective Mikal Bridges, shooting 3-3 from the field while leading the team with three assists. In the fourth quarter, Brunson (nine points), Anunoby (eight points), and Alvarado (eight points) combined to outscore the Spurs by themselves.

Victor Wembanyama scored a team-high 24 points and corralled a game-high 13 rebounds, but he shot just 9-25 from the field, including 2-8 from three point range. As the Spurs collapsed in the second half, Wembanyama had just eight points on 3-14 field goal shooting. Dylan Harper contributed 21 points off of the bench with a team-high +12 plus/minus number. Fox added 18 points on 6-16 field goal shooting while passing for a game-high tying seven assists. Stephon Castle had 13 points, five rebounds, and five assists, but he shot just 2-7 from the field. 

Saying that a game was a "tale of two halves" is an old cliche, but that is a precise description of this game. 

The first half tale saw the Spurs leading 76-49 after shooting 28-47 (.595) from the field and committing just two turnovers while holding the Knicks to 15-37 (.405) field goal shooting with seven turnovers. The Spurs shot 14-26 (.538) from beyond the arc while setting NBA Finals records for most three pointers in a half and biggest halftime lead by a visiting team (which was also the third biggest halftime lead by any NBA Finals team). Four Spurs scored at least 13 first half points: Victor Wembanyama (16), Dylan Harper (15), Devin Vassell (15), and De'Aaron Fox (13). Brunson led the Knicks with 19 points and Anunoby added 14 points, but the other three New York starters had just 14 points while seven New York reserves combined to score two points.

The second half tale was even more improbable than the Spurs' first half dominance, as the Knicks outscored the Spurs 58-30 while shooting 21-41 (.512) from the field and limiting the Spurs to 8-39 (.205 field goal shooting). The Spurs shot 3-17 (.176) from beyond the arc in perhaps the ultimate example of why high volume three point shooting is a high variance style of play; although "stat gurus" praise high volume three point shooting as the paragon of supposedly efficient offensive play, the reality is that teams that rely too heavily on three point shooting make themselves susceptible to long scoring droughts, particularly in the playoffs against tough-minded defensive teams. Charles Barkley of ABC/ESPN called the Spurs' second half three point barrage some of the dumbest basketball that he has seen in the 40-plus years that he has been involved with the NBA. Barkley is prone to hyperbole, but considering what was at stake and the fact that the Spurs have a 7-4 player who is supposed to be the future of the league, it is not extreme to suggest that the Spurs should have at least considered the option of slowing down, feeding the ball to Wembanyama in the paint (or at least inside the three point arc), and forcing the Knicks to guard him possession after possession. It cannot be emphasized enough that when the Spurs built their huge first half lead they outscored the Knicks in the paint 24-18, which indicates that the Spurs attacked the paint and then created rhythm three point shots by collapsing the defense. This is in marked contrast to the second half, when the Knicks outscored the Spurs in the paint 16-4.

This game provides a great example of why teams should not get frustrated by officiating or stop playing hard even when everything seems to be falling apart. Towns, who is often prone to collect fouls at an alarming rate, had two fouls in the first 1:02 of the game, resulting in him missing most of the first quarter. His second foul was initially whistled against Wembanyama, but then after a coach's challenge it was determined that Towns had committed an offensive foul on his drive to the hoop by hooking Wembanyama. The Spurs were already up 5-2 when Towns was replaced by Mitchell Robinson, and then the Spurs went on a 7-0 run to take a 12-2 lead. The Spurs were up by as much as 21 points in the first quarter, and were on top 41-22 entering the second quarter. 

New York coach Mike Brown shuffled 12 players into the game in the first half as the Knicks dealt with foul trouble and struggled to find a five man unit that could be effective at either end of the court, but the Spurs still won the second quarter, 35-27.

It was not immediately apparent in the third quarter how drastically this game would shift. Nearly four minutes into the quarter, the Spurs were still up 81-59. The Spurs' lead fluctuated between 16 and 20 points for most of the third quarter before Brunson's feed to Robinson for a dunk cut the margin to 87-72 at the 2:43 mark. Vassell answered with a three pointer to nudge the lead back up to 18, but Anunoby closed the third quarter scoring with a trey to trim the deficit to 90-75 entering the final stanza. Coming back from 29 points down in the NBA Finals sounds impossible, but erasing a 15 point lead in the fourth quarter is quite doable, particularly considering that the Knicks beat the Cleveland Cavaliers in the first game of the second round after trailing by 22 points with 7:52 left in the fourth quarter. 

In the fourth quarter, the Spurs nearly pulled off a collective "Harden" (referring to when a player--usually Harden--has more turnovers than field goals made), shooting 4-19 (.211) from the field while committing four turnovers. The Spurs still led 104-97 with 3:31 to go after Wembanyama made a jump shot, but the Knicks went on an 8-0 run in the next 2:09 to take their first lead of the game on a Brunson floater. Castle's two free throws put the Spurs up 106-105 with 30.3 seconds remaining, and it still seemed possible that the Knicks' huge comeback would be for naught. Brunson missed a floater in the lane with 16.1 seconds remaining, and Fox pushed the ball up the court after snaring the rebound. Fox could have held on to the ball to run the clock down and force the Knicks to foul him, but instead he attempted a layup with 11.1 seconds remaining. He later explained that his idea was to put the Spurs up by three points so that the Knicks would need a three pointer just to tie the game. Anunoby's chase down block gave the Knicks one last chance. Alvarado advanced the ball past midcourt before the Knicks called timeout. After the timeout, Anunoby inbounded the ball to Brunson and cut hard to the hoop. Brunson's three point shot looked good but was just off, and then Anunoby made the tip-in that will be replayed for decades (particularly if the Knicks win the championship). The Spurs called time out to advance the ball but were not even able to get off a shot in the final 1.2 seconds. 

After steamrolling the Knicks 41-22 in the first quarter, the Spurs got trampled 32-16 in the fourth quarter. The NBA is often a first quarter league--a point that I have repeatedly made, and that ABC/ESPN play by play announcer Mike Breen mentioned early in the third quarter--but in this game the fourth quarter proved to be decisive.

Casual fans may not understand how long an NBA game is, or how long a playoff series is. This comeback was unprecedented, but in general a 48 minute game provides plenty of time for a comeback, and an NBA best out of seven series is far different from a 40 minute NCAA tournament game in which the better team can go cold for five or 10 minutes and be eliminated by an inferior team. In the 2026 NBA Finals, the Spurs have had big runs, often seemed to have the much-talked about "momentum," and enjoyed a lead in the final two minutes of all four games, but now they trail 3-1 and face a daunting task to defeat a resilient Knicks team that never loses faith and never quits. The Spurs have the most talented player in the series, but they have not figured out how to consistently exploit Wembanyama's height, reach, agility, and shooting touch; meanwhile, in game four the Knicks did a masterful job of utilizing matchups and switches to drag Wembanyama out of the paint on defense to clear driving lanes for scores in the paint and for kick out passes for open three pointers.

Labels: Dylan Harper, Jalen Brunson, Jose Alvarado, Karl-Anthony Towns, New York Knicks, OG Anunoby, San Antonio Spurs, Stephon Castle, Victor Wembanyama

posted by David Friedman @ 3:22 AM

3 comments

Put Away the Brooms, New York: Spurs Win Game Three, End the Knicks' Sweep Dreams

For the third straight game, the San Antonio Spurs took a double digit first quarter lead versus the New York Knicks, but this time the Spurs did not collapse in the fourth quarter's final moments and they posted a 115-111 win to cut the Knicks' NBA Finals lead to 2-1. The Knicks--whose 13 game playoff winning streak ended--dreamed of sweeping their way to their first NBA title since 1973, but now the Spurs are one win away from reclaiming homecourt advantage. 

The Knicks outrebounded the Spurs 46-37, but the Spurs countered by committing just eight turnovers while the Knicks had 13 turnovers. The Knicks only had two more fouls than the Spurs (23-21) but the timing of fouls is important: the Spurs got into the bonus early enough to earn 32 free throw attempts compared to 22 free throw attempts for the Knicks, and the Spurs made 25 free throws while the Knicks made 18 free throws. 

In his postgame remarks, New York coach Mike Brown emphasized that the Spurs "played great" and that he does not often complain about officiating, but he pointed out that in the second half the Spurs attempted 24 free throws while the Knicks attempted eight free throws. Calling out officiating and free throw disparities is a time-honored NBA coaching tradition, particularly during the playoffs, but suffice it to say that the Knicks would be better served figuring out how to not fall behind early in each game, before foul trouble or free throws are relevant. However, I don't blame Brown for complaining; every coach does it not only because they think that it works but because it also generates an "us against them" mentality in the locker room by taking the focus off of what the players could have done better. 

My main issue with the game three officiating echoes an observation made by ABC/ESPN commentators Richard Jefferson and Tim Legler: the officials let a lot of contact go early in the game only to then call things more closely later in the game, leaving players to rightly wonder why the same stuff that they got away with in the first quarter was whistled later in the game. I have played a lot of basketball, and I believe that it is a player's obligation to adapt to how the officials decide to call the game--but once the officials set the tone then the officials should be consistent throughout the game. I don't want to make this whole recap about officiating, so I will conclude this portion of my analysis by doing something I rarely do: agree with Draymond Green, who said during ESPN's postgame show that the officials generally favor the more aggressive team, and in game three the Spurs were the aggressor from the start of the game.

Victor Wembanyama scored a game-high tying 32 points on 11-18 field goal shooting while also grabbing eight rebounds, dishing for six assists, blocking three shots, snaring two steals, and committing just one turnover. He was selective and efficient (2-4) from beyond the arc. Wembanyama is the second youngest player to have at least 30 points, at least five rebounds, and at least five assists in an NBA Finals game, trailing only Magic Johnson, who accomplished the feat in the 1980 NBA Finals as a 20 year old rookie en route to leading the L.A. Lakers to the NBA title while winning the NBA Finals MVP. Stephon Castle added 23 points on 8-14 field goal shooting along with five rebounds, five assists, and two steals. Dylan Harper shot just 5-18 from the field, but he made a significant impact off of the bench with 13 points, a game-high tying nine rebounds, four assists, and no turnovers in 32 minutes. De'Aaron Fox had 12 points on 4-14 field goal shooting, but he made his impact felt with a game-high eight assists and two blocked shots. Julian Champagnie (12 points, three assists) and Devin Vassell (11 points, four rebounds) made solid contributions.

Jalen Brunson had a game-high tying 32 points on 11-25 field goal shooting with five rebounds, five assists, and a game-high five turnovers. OG Anunoby scored 28 points while shooting 9-13 from the field, and he had five rebounds and two blocked shots. Josh Hart had another excellent all-around game: 16 points, game-high tying nine rebounds, five assists. Karl-Anthony Towns--the best player in the series through the first two games--had 11 points, eight rebounds, and just one assist. During much of the Knicks' winning streak, they ran their offense through Towns as a distributor who also contributed timely baskets. In this game he only had 10 field goal attempts, so he was not involved enough in the offense as either a scorer or a playmaker. Jordan Clarkson provided a spark with 10 points in 13 minutes off of the bench, but that type of contribution is only noticed during a win and tends to be overlooked in a loss.

Although both teams made runs throughout the game, the Spurs set the overall tone early, reinforcing an important point: the NBA is often called a fourth quarter league, but it is really a first quarter league because in the first quarter the winning team can identify and exploit matchup advantages that will work throughout the game. Wembanyama had nine points on 4-4 field goal shooting in the first five minutes of the game, and he did all of that work in close proximity to the hoop. Yes, he can make three pointers, but he is most effective when he attacks the hoop as his first option. Defensively, the Spurs positioned Wembanyama so that he spent most of his time protecting the paint, with a secondary responsibility of closing out to shooters on the baseline, instead of assigning him to chase Towns around the perimeter. The Spurs led by as much as 12 in the first quarter, and they were ahead 33-22 heading into the second quarter.

The Knicks set a franchise NBA Finals record by pouring in 42 points in the second quarter, with Anunoby (11 points) and Brunson (10 points) doing much of the damage. Brunson's three pointer at the 4:18 mark gave the Knicks their first lead of the game, 50-49. Castle had 11 of the Spurs' 24 second quarter points. The Knicks led 64-57 at halftime, and noted prognosticator Charles Barkley declared during the halftime show that the game was over, joking with Shaquille O'Neal that he would bet his house that the Knicks would win. 

The Knicks started the third quarter sloppily with turnovers on their first two possessions leading to six straight San Antonio points on a Champagnie drive, a Champagnie three pointer, and a Champagnie free throw after Brunson was called for a flagrant foul for a reckless close out on Champagnie's trey. The Spurs took their first lead of the second half, 72-71, on a Vassell three pointer with 7:26 left in the third quarter. The rest of the third quarter was closely contested, with the Spurs on top 92-91 heading into the final stanza.

Considering how the previous two games ended, the Knicks must have felt ecstatic about the prospect of yet another game going down to the wire. The Spurs did not lead by more than eight points during the fourth quarter, but they never let the Knicks tie the score; the Knicks had a chance to all but clinch the championship by winning the fourth quarter to win game three, but instead they scored 20 fourth quarter points on 7-27 (.259) field goal shooting. The Spurs shot almost as poorly (6-21, .286) from the field, but they shot 10-10 from the free throw line. Every play that seemed to give the Knicks momentum only served to keep the game close without pushing the Knicks over the top. For example, Wembanyama hit a three pointer to give the Spurs a 103-93 lead and the officials called a foul on Mitchell Robinson to create a four point play opportunity--but the Knicks challenged the call, and the officials correctly ruled that Keldon Johnson had pushed Robinson into Wembanyama, thus wiping out not only Wembanyama's potential free throw attempt but also his three point shot. After Brunson's driving layup cut the Spurs' advantage to 100-95, it looked like the Knicks were in position for another late game rally. The Knicks got as close as 113-111 on Anunoby's three pointer with 9.4 seconds remaining, but Castle calmly answered with two free throws to keep the game out of reach. Brunson led both teams with 12 fourth quarter points on 4-7 field goal shooting, but the Spurs had built just enough of a cushion that his late game heroics did not save the Knicks.

The game to game overreactions by pundits are amusing; perhaps the overheated rhetoric generates clicks or views or ratings, but the reality is that each game in a playoff series has a distinct character and in the long run the team that best exploits matchup advantages will prevail four times. Even though the Knicks won the first two games on the road, it is not like they dominated the Spurs from start to finish; the Knicks overcame a 14 point deficit to win game one, and they won game two after squandering a 14 point lead. 

It should be obvious that these teams are closely matched and that each team has the ability to win on the road. The Spurs have the most talented player (Wembanyama) plus a fleet of young and athletic perimeter players who are harassing Brunson into a low field goal percentage much like they harassed two-time regular season MVP Shai Gilgeous-Alexander into a low field goal percentage in the Western Conference Finals. The Knicks have more playoff experience, a versatile big man (Towns) who is capable of challenging Wembanyama at both ends of the court, and a crafty lead guard (Brunson) who rises to the occasion in close games.

Instead of reasoned analysis of matchup advantages, offensive sets, and defensive schemes, we will now spend the next two days hearing about how the Knicks are in trouble, are lucky that they are not down 3-0, and are being outcoached, outhustled, and/or outdone in terms of the vaunted "in game adjustments"--and the people making those bold pronouncements will be the same ones who declared before game three that the Knicks are on the verge of sweeping the series. It is a lot easier to ride emotional waves than to analyze what is happening while it is happening.

Labels: De'Aaron Fox, Jalen Brunson, Josh Hart, Karl-Anthony Towns, New York Knicks, OG Anunoby, San Antonio Spurs, Stephon Castle, Victor Wembanyama

posted by David Friedman @ 2:56 AM

4 comments

Knicks Stun Spurs to Take 2-0 NBA Finals Lead

In a contentious and physical game during which each team enjoyed a double digit lead, the New York Knicks beat the San Antonio Spurs 105-104 thanks to a Jalen Brunson free throw followed by Victor Wembanyama's missed jump shot. The Knicks shot worse than .420 from the field for the second consecutive game (37-89, .416) but they outrebounded the Spurs 44-42, they beat the Spurs in second chance points 14-9, and they narrowly won the turnover battle (16-15) in a game during which every possession mattered. The Knicks have won 13 consecutive playoff games, the second longest postseason winning streak in NBA history, trailing only the 15 game winning streak authored by the 2017 Golden State Warriors. 

Karl-Anthony Towns led the Knicks with 21 points on 8-12 field goal shooting plus a game-high 13 rebounds. He also had four assists, and a game-high tying +11 plus/minus number. He found an excellent balance of attacking the hoop, stretching the defense (he shot 3-5 from beyond the arc), and picking apart the Spurs' defense with pinpoint passing. His combination of size, strength, and agility flustered Wembanyama.

Game one hero Jalen Brunson contributed 20 points, a game-high tying six assists, five rebounds, and a game-high five steals. He shot just 7-25 from the field and had a game-high tying four turnovers, but he had a team-high seven fourth quarter points as the Knicks scored just enough to hold off the surging Spurs, who won the fourth quarter 29-21. Brunson had a -10 plus/minus number.

The oft-criticized Mikal Bridges made his impact felt all over the court with 20 points on 8-13 field goal shooting, six rebounds, and a game-high tying six assists. The Knicks' other double figure scorers were OG Anunoby (17 points, four rebounds, three assists, two blocked shots) and Landry Shamet (13 points, +9 plus/minus number). Jose Alvorado shot 0-4 from the field but he contributed three rebounds and two assists in 10 minutes while matching Towns' game-high +11 plus/minus number.

Wembanyama overcame a sluggish first half (seven points on 2-4 field goal shooting) to finish with a game-high 29 points on 11-21 field goal shooting plus a team-high tying nine rebounds, and a game-high four blocked shots; however, his late game lapses--including a careless turnover followed by fouling Brunson for what turned out to be the game-winning free throw--will be the most indelible images of his performance, along with his missed jump shot in the waning seconds. He had a game-high tying four turnovers.

De'Aaron Fox had 20 points on 8-12 field goal shooting, five assists and a game-high tying four turnovers. This was his first game with at least 20 points since he scored 21 points in San Antonio's 139-109 game six series-clinching win over Minnesota on May 15. Dylan Harper had a very good game off of the bench: 15 points on 6-12 field goal shooting, six rebounds, and a game-high +12 plus/minus number in 32 minutes. The Spurs need more from Stephon Castle, who scored 14 points on 5-14 field goal shooting with four assists, a game-high tying four turnovers, and a -6 plus/minus number. Devin Vassell filled up the boxscore with 14 points on 4-9 field goal shooting, a team-high tying nine rebounds, five assists, and no turnovers.

In the first quarter, the Spurs aggressively drove to the hoop to score, and to pass to open shooters when the defense collapsed. This attacking mentality put a lot of pressure on the Knicks to defend against the drive, recover to perimeter shooters, and still be mindful of Wembanyama's looming presence as a potential driver, cutter, lob threat, and offensive rebounder. Near the end of the first quarter, Wembanyama faked a three pointer, and then drove to the hoop for a layup, but overall--as ABC/ESPN game analysts Richard Jefferson and Tim Legler both noted--he "drifted" to the perimeter too much in the first half. The Spurs led 34-25 after the first 12 minutes. Fox scored nine first quarter points, which is more than he scored in all of game one (seven points on 3-13 field goal shooting). Julian Champagnie, who did not score in the final three quarters, had eight first quarter points.

In addition to their efficient first quarter shooting (13-20, .650), the Spurs applied relentless pressure against New York's ballhandlers to slow down the game, drain the shot clock, and disrupt New York's offensive rhythm. The Knicks shot 8-21 (.381) from the field in the first quarter, and seemed to be hanging on for dear life--but the Knicks turned things around in the second quarter, outscoring the Spurs 31-18, utilizing a stifling defense that held the Spurs to 4-21 (.190) field goal shooting. The Knicks ended the first half with a flurry: Bridges nailed a corner three pointer after excellent ball movement to trim San Antonio's lead to 48-47, and then Shamet drove to the hoop to give the Knicks their first lead of the game, 49-48, at the 3:39 mark. Vassell answered with a four point play, but then the Knicks scored the final seven points of the half on a Brunson layup, a Bridges floater off of a deft feed from Towns, and a Towns three pointer from the left corner. The Knicks were up 56-52 at halftime after trailing by as much as 12 points in the second quarter. 

During the halftime show, ABC/ESPN commentators Charles Barkley and Shaquille O'Neal debated if Wembanyama was "in shock" (Barkley) or just not playing with enough energy (O'Neal). Wembanyama had a big third quarter (12 points on 5-8 field goal shooting), but the Knicks used a balanced attack to outscore the Spurs 28-23 to carry an 84-75 advantage into the final stanza.

It looked like the Knicks had knocked out the Spurs after Anunoby's driving dunk over Wembanyama put the Knicks up 97-83 at the 6:04 mark of the fourth quarter--the Knicks' biggest lead of the game--but the Spurs answered with a 14-0 run in the next 3:05. During that stretch, the Knicks' offense looked disjointed, and their usually stout defense crumbled. The Knicks had overcome a 14 point third quarter deficit to win game one, and it seemed as if the Spurs were about to return the favor--but the Knicks are a very resilient team. After the Spurs tied the score, the Knicks' ensuing possession ended with an out of bounds call in favor of the Spurs, but after a coach's challenge the call was reversed to a proximate foul on Champagnie as Anunoby attempted a three point shot. Anunoby made all three free throws to end the Spurs' run and put the Knicks up, 100-97. Those were the Knicks' first free throws in the second half. Some players and teams waste energy focusing on which fouls are called or not called, but the Knicks stay focused on playing. 

After the teams traded baskets, the Knicks had a strange possession in which Brunson never touched the ball while Bridges dribbled the clock down before turning the ball over. The Spurs then took a 104-102 lead on Wembanyama's three point play with 57.3 seconds remaining. Brunson's patented fadeaway jumper tied the score at 104 at the 39.3 second mark. Wembanyama and Brunson each missed jumpers on the next two possessions, with Wembanyama rebounding Brunson's shot with 11.8 seconds remaining and the score still tied at 104. Wembanyama started to dribble up the court and then made an outlet pass that hit Castle in the back. Brunson snatched the loose ball, and Wembanyama compounded his mistake by fouling Brunson at midcourt. Brunson split the free throws, and the Spurs called their final timeout with 7.5 seconds left. The Spurs' last play involved Fox catching the ball in the middle of the court, hesitating before driving, and then dishing to Wembanyama for a jump shot. Wembanyama missed, and time ran out before the Spurs could retrieve the ball or commit a foul to stop the clock. ABC/ESPN commentator Kenny Smith correctly pointed out that the Spurs would have been better served to attack more quickly on their final possession so that even if they missed a shot they would have time to go for an offensive rebound or at least commit a foul to stop the clock and have one more possession trailing by one, two, or three (depending on how many free throws the Knicks made after the foul).

The Spurs' 14-0 fourth quarter run proved to be too little, too late; during the first two games they have played very well at times, but too often they have hurt themselves with a combination of passivity and mental errors. Of course, the Knicks deserve a tremendous amount of credit for pressuring the Spurs enough to make the Spurs uncomfortable and error-prone. In game one, Brunson (13 fourth quarter points) and Anunoby (12 fourth quarter points) took over late to lead the Knicks to victory; this game two win gives the Knicks a commanding advantage because no team that lost the first two NBA Finals games at home has come back to win the championship.

Labels: De'Aaron Fox, Jalen Brunson, Karl-Anthony Towns, Mikal Bridges, New York Knicks, OG Anunoby, San Antonio Spurs, Stephon Castle, Victor Wembanyama

posted by David Friedman @ 1:46 AM

6 comments

Brunson Burner Singes Spurs as Knicks Steal Game One of the NBA Finals

The New York Knicks built a 14-7 first quarter lead but had to come back from a 14 point third quarter deficit to earn a 105-95 win versus the San Antonio Spurs in game one of the NBA Finals. The Knicks shot 39-94 (.415) from the field and were outrebounded 54-49, but they held the Spurs to 32-89 (.360) field goal shooting while forcing 13 turnovers and committing just nine turnovers (including just one in the decisive second half). The Knicks outscored the Spurs in the paint 50-42, won the second chance scoring battle 23-14, and only narrowly trailed in fast break points (15-12) even though the Spurs are a younger and more athletic team. The Knicks are the seventh team in NBA history to win at least 12 consecutive playoff games, and just the third to do so in a single postseason, joining the 1999 Spurs (who also won 12 games in a row) and the 2017 Golden State Warriors (who won 15 games in a row); both of those teams won the NBA title.

Jalen Brunson overcame a poor first quarter (three points on 1-7 field goal shooting) to finish with a game-high 30 points on 12-31 field goal shooting. Along the way, he battled early injuries to his right knee and left ankle that caused him to miss some time during the first half. Brunson had just two assists and a team-high four turnovers, but he dominated the fourth quarter with 13 points on 5-9 field goal shooting as the Knicks outscored the Spurs 29-19 in the final stanza; basketball has a lot of strategy, but sometimes--particularly in close games--it comes down to something as simple as which team's star player makes clutch shots.

Karl-Anthony Towns had 18 points, 12 rebounds, four assists, and the game's second best plus/minus number (+14). His individual defense versus Victor Wembanyama was excellent, and he also did a superb job of attacking Wembanyama's defense by driving aggressively to the hoop when he had the ball and crashing the offensive boards (game-high tying four offensive rebounds) when he did not have the ball. I picked the Spurs to beat the Knicks, but I noted, "Towns' effectiveness at both ends of the court--and whether he avoids committing silly fouls--will be a key factor in this series." Winning basketball is about a lot more than just crunching numbers--this is a recurring theme in my NBA coverage--and Towns' impact in game one goes well beyond what his boxscore numbers suggest and even what his plus/minus number indicates. ESPN's Charles Barkley said that Towns was the Knicks' most valuable player in this game, and that Towns will be the key player for the whole series.

Josh Hart had a game-high +22 plus/minus number despite scoring just three points on 1-5 field goal shooting; he made his impact felt all over the court with a game-high 15 rebounds, a game-high six assists, and a game-high four steals (matching all of the Spurs combined). 

OG Anunoby's boxscore numbers do not jump off of the page (17 points, three rebounds, -6 plus/minus number), but he had 12 points and a +5 plus/minus number in the fourth quarter with the game up for grabs.

Landry Shamet continued his hot shooting and timely scoring with 13 points in 33 minutes off of the bench. He was the only New York reserve who played more than 20 minutes or scored more than 10 points.

Mitchell Robinson survived perhaps the world's most famous broken pinkie to compile six rebounds in 13 minutes off of the bench. 

Victor Wembanyama led the Spurs in scoring (26 points), rebounds (12), and blocked shots (three) but he also had a game-high six turnovers. He scored 11 of the Spurs' 19 fourth quarter points, but he shot just 3-8 from the field; overall, Wembanyama shot 6-21 from the field, including 2-9 from beyond the arc, and those numbers are not good enough for a player of his caliber: Wembanyama must have a higher field goal percentage, and he must shoot fewer three pointers--and it should be obvious that the solution to both equations involves attacking the paint instead of being satisfied to float around the perimeter. 

Stephon Castle contributed 17 points and eight rebounds, Julian Champagnie added 16 points and 10 rebounds, and Dylan Harper had 16 points and eight rebounds off of the bench. Champagnie provided a major first half spark (15 points, 5-6 three point field goal shooting, six rebounds), but he disappeared in the second half after the Knicks stopped leaving him wide open. 

As is the case with many NBA games, this was a game of runs. The Knicks could not sustain their early lead, and by the end of the first quarter the Spurs were up, 27-19. The Knicks briefly went ahead in the second quarter, but never by more than one point, and by halftime the Spurs enjoyed a 55-48 advantage. Both teams struggled to shoot .400 from the field in the first half, but the Spurs had three fewer turnovers and 10 more free throws made. The Spurs opened the third quarter with a 10-3 run in the first 5:29 with Wembanyama sinking four free throws, Castle scoring on a drive, and Castle scoring on a putback as well as Harper converting a floater. The tide shifted shortly after Luke Kornet subbed in for Wembanyama; in the next five minutes, the Knicks used a 20-10 burst to tie the game at 71, and the score was 76-76 heading into the fourth quarter. 

Neither team led by more than five points in the fourth quarter until Brunson scored a fast break layup at the 6:34 mark to put the Knicks up, 92-86. After play was halted briefly because an idiot ran onto the court from the stands, the Spurs won the ensuing jump ball but the Knicks turned Champagnie's missed three pointer into a Brunson fast break layup. Wembanyama answered with a three pointer, followed by Champagnie splitting a pair of free throws and Wembanyama completing a three point play after Towns fouled him on a drive. Wembanyama made two more free throws to put the Spurs up 95-94 at the 2:16 mark, but after Anunoby missed a three pointer Brunson tipped the long rebound to Mikal Bridges, who passed back to Brunson in the right corner for a dagger three pointer with 1:50 remaining to give the Knicks a lead that they would not relinquish. The Knicks outscored the Spurs 11-0 in the final 1:50.

Each game in a seven game series has its own rhythm, but matchup advantages remain constant unless impacted by foul trouble or injuries. For the Spurs to win game two and eventually win the series, they need Wembanyama to impose his presence in the paint at both ends of the court; in game one, he let Towns push him to the perimeter on offense far too often, and when the Spurs were on defense the Knicks cleverly used ball movement and player movement to open up driving lanes to attack the paint at angles that made it difficult for Wembanyama to guard his man and protect the rim. The Spurs seem to have an armada of rangy, athletic wings who can make life difficult for Brunson, but after Brunson's slow first quarter start he shot 11-24 the rest of the way and he dominated the fourth quarter. The Spurs controlled significant portions of game one and only trailed 97-95 with less than 90 seconds left in the game, so it is not like they need to make wholesale changes--or the much talked about "adjustments"--to win game two; if they play the way that they played for most of the regular season and most of the playoffs then they will put themselves in position to be successful.

All that being said, winning game one is important. Since the NBA went to the 16 team playoff format in 1984, the game one winner in the NBA Finals eventually won the series 28 times in 42 attempts (.667 winning percentage), and that trend has held true recently: the game one winner has won the NBA finals seven times in the past 10 years. Also, the overall series winning percentage of game one winners since 1984 is .771, a number that is inflated a bit by the large number of first round mismatches in which the higher seeded team wins the first game and then cruises to a series victory. The oft-repeated notion that game one is a "feel out game" is not supported by the numbers; historically, game one is a reliable indicator of who will win the series, and it is amusing that people who claim to rely on "analytics" seem to struggle to understand this.

Labels: Dylan Harper, Jalen Brunson, Josh Hart, Julian Champagnie, Karl-Anthony Towns, New York Knicks, OG Anunoby, San Antonio Spurs, Stephon Castle, Victor Wembanyama

posted by David Friedman @ 2:45 AM

5 comments

San Antonio Versus New York Preview

NBA Finals

San Antonio (62-20) vs. New York (53-29)

Season series: Tied, 1-1 (The Knicks also won the 2025 NBA Cup Championship Game versus Spurs, but that game does not count in the regular season standings)

New York can win if…the Knicks win the possession game by outrebounding the Spurs while also limiting the Spurs' opportunities to score in transition off of turnovers. 

The Knicks lead the 2026 NBA playoffs in rebounding differential (9.5 rpg), and the Spurs rank third (4.9 rpg). The Knicks rank fourth in the 2026 playoffs with a 2.5 turnover differential, while the Spurs rank 11th with a -1.39 turnover differential. Obviously, playoff rankings are affected by strength of opposition, but for the Knicks to win this series it is very important for them to have the advantage in both categories because the Spurs rank first in the playoffs in defensive field goal percentage (.413); the Knicks need to have as many possessions as possible because of how difficult it is to score versus the Spurs. 

The Knicks own an 11 game winning streak since trailing the Atlanta Hawks 2-1 in the first round, and their +262 point differential in those games is the best in NBA history for any 11 game stretch, regular season or playoffs. Overall, the Knicks' +271 point differential in the 2026 playoffs is the best in NBA playoff history for any team prior to the NBA Finals. The Knicks lead the playoffs in scoring (119.9 ppg), points allowed (100.6 ppg), point differential (19.3 ppg), and field goal percentage (.512; no other team is shooting better than .480), while ranking third in defensive field goal percentage (.437).  

Jalen Brunson earned the Larry Bird Eastern Conference Finals MVP after averaging 25.5 ppg and 7.8 apg while shooting .487 from the field as the Knicks swept the Cleveland Cavaliers, 4-0. Brunson leads the Knicks in playoff scoring (26.9 ppg) and assists (6.6 apg). Brunson has been one of the NBA's top guards ever since the Dallas Mavericks let him walk in free agency in 2022. I'm not sure what kind of "advanced basketball statistics" the Mavericks are using, but breaking up their 2011 championship team, paying Harrison Barnes franchise player money, refusing to pay Brunson $20 million/year (which looks like a bargain now), and trading Luka Doncic for Anthony Davis are just a few of the unwise decisions made by the team's front office in the past 15 years. 

Karl-Anthony Towns dazzled with his playmaking (team-high 7.5 apg) as the Knicks swept the Philadelphia 76ers in the second round, but in the Eastern Conference Finals the Knicks' offense often focused on isolating Brunson to exploit James Harden's horrific defense. Towns still averaged 15.8 ppg, a team-high 12.0 rpg, and 4.0 apg in the series, and his overall playoff averages this year are 16.9 ppg, a team-high 10.6 rpg, and 5.9 apg. 

OG Anunoby ranks second on the team in playoff scoring (19.7 ppg), second in steals (1.6 spg), and third in rebounding (6.9 rpg) while shooting .577 from the field. He is very valuable because of his size and versatility, and at times he has been the Knicks' best player even though he does not receive the accolades or attention that Brunson and Towns deservedly get for their high level performances.

Josh Hart ranks just fifth on the team in playoff scoring (11.4 ppg), but he is first in steals (1.8 spg), second in rebounding (8.6 rpg), and third in assists (4.6 apg). Hart is not as big as Anunoby, but he can guard multiple positions well while also serving as a secondary playmaker and double figure scorer.

The Knicks' bench was productive in key moments versus the Cavaliers in the Eastern Conference Finals. Landry Shamet averaged 9.8 ppg with shooting splits that look like typographical errors: .750/.917/.800. Mitchell Robinson snagged 11 offensive rebounds in four games. Robinson suffered a mysterious broken right pinkie while the Knicks waited for the Western Conference Finals to end; the Knicks provided no details about how the injury happened other than it did not occur during a game or during a practice. Robinson had surgery and is expected to be available for game one of the NBA Finals. His physicality and rebounding are important.

In my 2025-26 Eastern Conference Preview, I picked the Knicks to win the Eastern Conference, but by the end of the regular season I had lost faith in the Knicks while being very impressed by how well the Boston Celtics played even before Jayson Tatum returned, so I picked the Celtics to win the Eastern Conference. The Knicks have performed much better in the 2026 playoffs than even I expected when I initially picked them to reach the NBA Finals. 

San Antonio will win because…the Spurs have an incredibly deep and talented roster anchored by Victor Wembanyama, who won the Defensive Player of the Year award and finished third in MVP voting in just his third NBA season. 

Wembanyama's first playoff run has been exceptional: he leads the Spurs in scoring (23.2 ppg), rebounding (10.8 rpg), and blocked shots (league-leading 3.5 bpg) despite ranking just fourth on the squad in minutes (32.5 mpg). He can score from anywhere on the court, as his playoff shooting splits (.510/.370/.870) indicate, but his biggest impact is on defense; he leads the league in a category that has not even been officially named yet but could be called "Man, I don't think so" because--much like L.L. Cool J felt ambivalent about going to California--ballhandlers take one look at Wembanyama lurking in the paint and decide "Man, I don't think so" in terms of challenging him at the rim. Decades ago, it was said of Bill Russell that what mattered even more than how many shots he blocked and altered were how many shots were not even taken due to his presence. It is fair to say that Wembanyama has that type of looming presence of doom in the paint, and even though conventional wisdom is that the best way to attack a shotblocker is to go straight into his body we do not see too many players opting to directly challenge Wembanyama. 

Wembanyama has said that his NBA role model is Russell Westbrook, and it is evident that he takes after Westbrook in terms of being a beloved teammate who is fiercely competitive and not trying to make friends with opposing players. The pace at which Wembanyama's NBA body and mind have developed is breathtaking; last season he played in just 46 regular season games as the Spurs limped to a 34-48 record, but this season he played in 64 games while leading the Spurs to the league's second best record. Sometimes, young teams led by a young superstar fail to live up to expectations during the playoffs, but the Spurs dethroned the 2025 NBA champion Oklahoma City Thunder by beating the Thunder 111-103 at Oklahoma City in game seven of the Western Conference Finals. Wembanyama averaged 27.3 ppg, 10.9 rpg, 3.1 apg, 2.7 bpg, and 1.4 spg with shooting splits of .481/.400/.895 to win the Magic Johnson Western Conference Finals MVP.

Wembanyama is not a one man team, though; his supporting cast is young but athletic and tough. During the Western Conference Finals, Stephon Castle led the Spurs in assists (7.6 apg) while ranking second in scoring (18.0 ppg), and fifth in rebounding (5.0 rpg). The only negative is that he led the team in turnovers (4.6 tpg) by a wide margin.

Devin Vassell ranked third on the team in scoring in the Western Conference Finals (13.9 ppg), led the team in three point field goals made (21) and steals (1.7 spg), and ranked second in three point field goal percentage (.396).

Rookie guard Dylan Harper contributed 12.0 ppg (fourth on the team) and 5.7 rpg (third on the team) in the Western Conference Finals, while Julian Champagnie added 11.9 ppg, ranked second on the team with 18 three point field goals made, and ranked second in rebounding (6.1 rpg).

De'Aaron Fox missed the first two games of the Western Conference Finals due to a sprained right ankle, but in the five games he played he chipped in 11.2 ppg, 6.2 apg (second on the team), and 5.2 rpg (fourth on the team). The 28 year old is the oldest player in the Spurs' seven man rotation.

Keldon Johnson, the NBA's 2026 Sixth Man of the Year, averaged 9.9 ppg in the Western Conference Finals, and he had 11 points on 4-8 field goal shooting in 16 minutes in game seven, including a team-high eight points on 3-3 field goal shooting in a tightly contested fourth quarter.

The Spurs' rangy and speedy perimeter players are very aggressive defensively because they know that Wembanyama will deter or erase any field goal attempts in the paint. 

Other things to consider: Towns is a fascinating player because he has enough talent to do anything on a basketball court; he is limited only by his imagination and his focus level. In his 2016 book Success is the Only Option: The Art of Coaching Extreme Talent, John Calipari (Towns' college coach at Kentucky) discussed at length the methods he used to get the most out of Towns in college while preparing him for a long, high level NBA career (pp. 46-49):

Karl's talent was obvious but he liked to roam around the perimeter, near the three point line, rather than going down low and mixing it up with the big guys. In high school, he attempted a ton of three-point shots and hit for a decent percentage. When he got to Kentucky, that was still his inclination. The finesse game. It was pretty to watch and it would have helped us plenty; after all, players who can shoot the ball form distance are always welcome.

But I wouldn't accept it. We said, "You're going to get in the post [and] you're going to learn to battle." There have been big players in the NBA, six foot ten and up, who are good outside shooters but shy away from physicality down low. They never amount to as much as they could. And then there are guys like Kevin Garnett and Karl Malone, excellent jump shooters who were also skilled and relentless around the hoop. Even Dirk Nowitzki, a seven-footer and one of the best three-point shooters in NBA history, has terrific post moves...

Malone is in the Hall of Fame and Garnett and Nowitkzi will join him the moment they're eligible [Garnett was inducted in the Basketball Hall of Fame in 2021 as a member of the 2020 class, and Nowitzki was inducted in the Basketball Hall of Fame in 2023]. That's the future I envisioned for Karl, but I knew I had him at a formative moment. A window can close on young players. The danger is that they will achieve what may feel like a high level of success without ever having to reach down and develop all aspects of their games...

Karl was invested in being a nice guy. Great, I'd tell him. I love being around you. Everybody does, and hold on to that. But it can't be your persona on the court. I'm never going to accept anything less from you and just shrug it off and say, "Oh, that's just Karl being Karl." 

Towns has made the All-Star team six times in his 11 year NBA career, including each of his three seasons with the Knicks, and he has been selected to the All-NBA Third Team three times, most recently in 2024-25. He has finished second in the league in rebounding each of the past two seasons, and he also has the 19th best career three point field goal percentage (.397) among active players. Towns is capable of using his three point shooting to draw Wembanyama away from the paint, but he is also capable of battling him for rebounds and posting him up. The Knicks will likely use several different players to guard Wembanyama, but Towns' effectiveness at both ends of the court--and whether he avoids committing silly fouls--will be a key factor in this series.   

Regular season head to head matchups between teams often do not mean much by the playoffs because so much can change in even just a few months. The Knicks beat the Spurs 124-113 in the NBA Cup Championship Game on December 16, 2025 at a neutral site (Las Vegas), but at that time Wembanyama was on a minutes restriction in just his second game back after missing 12 games due to injury. The NBA does not count the NBA Cup Championship Game in the regular season standings, and that game likely did not provide much evidence regarding what will happen in the NBA Finals--but it is worth noting that the Knicks won by dominating the rebounding battle 59-42 with four players each grabbing more rebounds than any Spur: Robinson (15 rebounds), Towns (11), Anunoby (nine), and Hart (eight). The Spurs edged the Knicks 134-132 at San Antonio on December 31, 2025; this time, the Spurs outrebounded the Knicks 48-40. In the third and final meeting between the teams on March 1, 2026, the Knicks routed the Spurs 114-89 at Madison Square Garden, outrebounding the Spurs 54-41. 

The Knicks' 2026 playoff run so far is unprecedented, but the Spurs' showed the best version of themselves at both ends of the court while eliminating a powerful (albeit shorthanded) Thunder team. I predict that San Antonio will win in six games.

Labels: Devin Vassell, Jalen Brunson, Karl-Anthony Towns, New York Knicks, OG Anunoby, San Antonio Spurs, Stephon Castle, Victor Wembanyama

posted by David Friedman @ 9:13 AM

8 comments

Knicks Crush Cavaliers to Reach NBA Finals for the First Time Since 1999

The New York Knicks led the Cleveland Cavaliers 38-26 at the end of the first quarter of game four of the Eastern Conference Finals before cruising to a 130-93 win to complete a 4-0 Eastern Conference Finals sweep. Six Knicks scored in double figures, with Karl-Anthony Towns leading the way (team-high 19 points, game-high 14 rebounds). OG Anunoby scored 17 points, Landry Shamet added 16 points off of the bench, and Jalen Brunson and Mikal Bridges each had 15 points and five assists. Miles "Deuce" McBride chipped in 11 points in a reserve role, and Josh Hart had another solid all-around game (six points, 11 rebounds, six assists). The outcome was decided early due to a combination of New York's great play and the Cavaliers blatantly quitting; as a result, Brunson, Bridges, and Hart did not play in the fourth quarter.

In short, if the occasion had called for it, Brunson could have easily scored 30 points, and his teammates could have added to their statistics as well--which is yet another example of how foolish it is to evaluate players based solely on numbers without looking at the larger context. Kenny Smith calls a player who pads his numbers on a bad team a "looter in a riot," because even a bad team will likely have a 20 ppg scorer just because of the nature of the NBA game (and the use of the shot clock). One cannot (or should not) assume that individual numbers compiled in one context can also be compiled in a different context. The Dallas Mavericks have long bragged about being in the forefront of the so-called "analytics" revolution, but it is not clear if "analytics" took the Mavericks to the top or dragged them down from the top. In 2011, Dirk Nowitzki carried the Mavericks to their lone NBA title, but the Mavericks promptly broke up his supporting cast and then more than a decade later they made two very questionable major personnel decisions; the Lakers appreciate the gift of Luka Doncic, and the Knicks very much appreciate the gift of Jalen Brunson.

The Knicks received the Bob Cousy Trophy for winning the Eastern Conference Championship. Brunson averaged 25.5 ppg and 7.8 apg while shooting .487 from the field in the Eastern Conference Finals en route to capturing the 2026 Larry Bird Eastern Conference Finals MVP; previous honorees include Jayson Tatum (2022), Jimmy Butler (2023), Jaylen Brown (2024), and Pascal Siakam (2025).

Coach Mike Brown, who has received much unwarranted criticism from uninformed media members, deserves a lot of credit for lifting an already very good team to the next level by not only implementing productive changes at both ends of the court but also by instilling a group feeling of camaraderie--but chemistry cannot be quantified, so the "stat gurus" refuse to believe that it matters or even exists. 

In my NBA Finals Preview, I will further discuss the Knicks' remarkable 2026 playoff run--which now includes a record three elimination game wins by at least 20 points each--but a lot needs to be said about the Cleveland Cavaliers, a fully healthy team with the league's highest payroll that overtly quit versus the Knicks; the Knicks deserve full credit for how well they are playing, but when a team repeatedly fails to get back on defense and repeatedly fails to make basic defensive rotations in the half court that team has quit, and that is what we saw from the Cavaliers at the end of game three and then carrying over into game four.

In game four, Donovan Mitchell scored a game-high 31 points on 9-18 field goal shooting, but that was not nearly enough to even keep the game close--and several of his highly touted teammates were conspicuous in their absence. No, Evan Mobley (15 points, seven rebounds, four assists, no blocked shots) is not the next Tim Duncan. No, Jarrett Allen (six points, three rebounds)--who played well in Cleveland's two game seven wins earlier in this year's playoffs--is not dependable enough. Mitchell was the only main Cleveland player who met reasonable performance expectations in the Eastern Conference Finals, averaging 27.3 ppg on .475 field goal shooting, albeit with shaky floor game numbers (2.3 apg, 3.5 tpg).

Then, of course, there is the ongoing playoff saga of James Harden--and don't fall for the propaganda that he is getting old: he played fine during this regular season, and he has been falling apart during the playoffs throughout his career. His elimination game record since fleeing Oklahoma City in 2012 is now 5-14, and he played poorly in most of those games. Recent examples include scoring 11 points on 4-9 field goal shooting in Philadelphia's 99-90 loss to Miami in 2022, scoring nine points on 3-11 field goal shooting in Philadelphia's 112-88 loss to Boston in 2023, scoring 16 points on 5-16 field goal shooting in the L.A. Clippers' 114-101 loss to Dallas in 2024, and scoring seven points on 2-8 field goal shooting in the Clippers' 120-101 game seven loss to the Denver Nuggets in 2025

After the Cavaliers traded Darius Garland for Harden, I declared, "I can write the template for the Cavaliers' 2026 elimination game loss now, and after the game I can fill in the blanks around the words "James Harden disappeared" and "James Harden scored just xxx second half points."  As I predicted, James Harden disappeared, and James Harden scored just zero second half points on 0-3 field goal shooting, finally reaching a nadir that not even he can surpass and adding yet another pathetic line to his horrific elimination game resume.

The Cavaliers acquired Harden to be the difference, and he was, because the Cavaliers have taken on his playoff identity: shoot bad shots at a low percentage (.416 field goal percentage in game four, .426 field goal percentage in the four games overall), make careless turnovers, don't hustle back on defense, and then quit in an elimination game. Harden and the Cavaliers checked off every one of those boxes. Harden provided yet another playoff game with a "concert tour" field goal percentage (2-8 for a chilly February outing), a "Harden" (a game with more turnovers than field goals made--here, a game-high five turnovers versus just two field goals made), and lackadaisical defense. As Shaquille O'Neal said at halftime, "James is doing what he usually does--disappear." Harden finished with 12 points, four assists, and five turnovers. He shot 0-6 from beyond the arc, and if the Knicks had not charitably fouled him (why foul a guy who can't make a shot?) to give him eight free points then he would not have even reached double figures in scoring. In the Eastern Conference Finals, Harden averaged 16.0 ppg on .389 field goal shooting (including .179 from three point range) with 3.0 apg and 4.3 tpg. It is difficult to win when your floor general with a supposedly genius-level basketball IQ can't make a shot, has more turnovers than assists, and is the opposing team's number one target to attack on defense.

"Stat gurus" love Harden, and they love lavishing outrageously false praise on him. Kirk Goldsberry called Harden "the greatest scorer of this NBA era," a ludicrous notion that I debunked in 2019. Daryl Morey declared that James Harden is a better scorer than Michael Jordan. 

The Cavaliers clearly relied on such delusional thinking when they acquired Harden, and it is evident that delusional thinking pervades the organization. All you need to know about the misapplication of "advanced basketball statistics" can be summarized in this quote from Cleveland coach Kenny Atkinson, who declared that "analytically" his Cavaliers won two of the first three games versus the Knicks. In the real world of real numbers, the Cavaliers lost the first three games before quitting in game four, and every game was decided by at least 11 points (the first game went to overtime after the Cavaliers squandered a 22 point fourth quarter lead). Analytically, it would appear that Cleveland's 22 point lead was the outlier in this three game sample size, because otherwise the Knicks outplayed, outcoached, outshot, and outhustled the Cavaliers.

When you are delusional enough to think that you are winning on a spreadsheet despite getting destroyed on the basketball court, you are not smart enough or self-aware enough to make decisions that will lead to winning a championship.

Let's be perfectly clear: it is smart to use statistics with understanding and in the larger context of how basketball is played/should be played--but there are a lot of "stat gurus" who have made a lot of money peddling fish oil as NBA executives and media members without having a clue about how to evaluate players or teams, and those are the people whose faulty thinking I have been refuting for decades.

It is true that the Cavaliers advanced one round farther this year than they did last year, but they did that despite Harden more so than because of him--and the Cavaliers did not assemble the most expensive roster in the league to fall eight wins short of capturing the NBA title. Just like this season was "NBA Finals or bust" for the Knicks, the same was true (or should have been true) for the Cavaliers.   

Labels: Cleveland Cavaliers, Donovan Mitchell, Jalen Brunson, James Harden, Karl-Anthony Towns, Kenny Atkinson, Mike Brown, New York Knicks

posted by David Friedman @ 12:33 AM

6 comments

Knicks Outplay and Outcoach Cavaliers to Take 2-0 Eastern Conference Finals Lead

After trailing the Atlanta Hawks 2-1 in the first round, the New York Knicks have apparently morphed into some combination of Bill Russell's Boston Celtics, the Kareem Abdul-Jabbar-Magic Johnson L.A. Lakers, the Michael Jordan-Scottie Pippen Chicago Bulls, the Shaquille O'Neal-Kobe Bryant L.A. Lakers, and the Kevin Durant-Stephen Curry Golden State Warriors. I am not suggesting that the Knicks are as good as any of those fabled championship teams, nor am I even predicting that the Knicks will win the 2026 NBA championship--but it is worth noting that the Knicks have already accomplished things that none of those teams accomplished, including posting the best point differential in a 10 game span in NBA playoff history, winning three consecutive playoff games by at least 25 points, opening a series with a 35-plus point win after ending a series with a 35-plus point win, and building a 47 point halftime lead in a playoff game. 

The Knicks may not be one of the greatest teams of all-time, but their statistical profile matches or even exceeds the statistical profiles of many dominant championship teams. The Knicks own a nine game playoff winning streak, and have a 2-0 Eastern Conference Finals lead over the Cleveland Cavaliers as that series shifts to Cleveland for games three and four. The Knicks led game one 23-16 at the end of the first quarter but then they did not just hit cruise control--they hit snooze control, falling into a 93-71 hole with 7:52 remaining in the fourth quarter. What happened next is one of the greatest comebacks (or greatest collapses, depending on your perspective) in NBA playoff history, as the Knicks outscored the Cavaliers 44-11 the rest of the way en route to a 115-104 overtime win. 

The Knicks turned things around with a brutally direct offensive tactic: Jalen Brunson attacked James Harden one on one, and if the Cavaliers had a different primary defender on Brunson then the Knicks used whoever Harden was guarding as a screener to force a switch putting Harden on Brunson. Brunson scored 15 fourth quarter points on 7-9 field goal shooting, and he finished with a game-high 38 points on 15-29 field goal shooting. We have seen many playoff duels featuring two players trading baskets, but it is unusual to see a player touted as one of the greatest guards ever being torched one on one this way. Harden had 15 points on 5-16 field goal shooting along with three assists and a team-high six turnovers, yet another "Harden" game; media members have apparently only recently noticed that Harden's playoff trademark is to have more turnovers than field goals made, but I pointed this out three years ago. Donovan Mitchell led the Cavaliers with 29 points, but Harden's atrocious defense meant that the Cavaliers were often taking the ball out of the net and playing against the Knicks' set defense as opposed to attacking in transition after rebounds or steals. Harden dominating the ball on offense and getting torched on defense is wonderful for the Knicks and horrible for the Cavaliers, which brings us to the topic of coaching.

New York coach Mike Brown is often maligned, but he is coaching circles around Cleveland's Kenny Atkinson in this series. Brown's defense is making it tough for Cleveland to score, and his offense is exploiting the Cavaliers' defensive weaknesses (mainly Harden). Atkinson was oddly reticent to call a timeout during Cleveland's game one collapse, and his postgame remarks suggested that he is detached from reality, contractually obligated to never criticize Harden, or both. Atkinson kept a straight face while insisting that Harden has been one of Cleveland's best defensive players, and he implausibly suggested that the Cavaliers had played well for three quarters before running into some bad luck late in the game because Brunson hit tough shots. The reality is that Harden has been a traffic cone as a perimeter defender throughout his career (he defends OK in the post, but that is of minimal value for a point guard who is guarding perimeter players), and the Knicks outplayed the Cavalier both early in the game and down the stretch. The Cavaliers maybe had about 15-20 minutes of good basketball, but Atkinson fiddled while Rome burned in the closing moments, and the result had nothing to do with luck.

Naturally, many media members said that the Cavaliers could not recover from losing game one, apparently forgetting that the Cavaliers bounced back from a 2-0 deficit in the previous series to beat Detroit in seven games; the question is not whether the Cavaliers are resilient, but whether the Cavaliers have matchup advantages that will enable them to beat New York four times.  

The Cavaliers took a 13-7 first quarter lead in game two, but the Knicks led 53-49 at halftime, never trailed in the second half, and were up by as much as 19 points before winning, 109-93. The Cavaliers finally stopped letting Brunson torture Harden one on one, but after they trapped Harden they had no effective response to Brunson's passing. Brunson finished with 19 points plus a playoff career-high 14 assists. Many of Brunson's assists went to Josh Hart, who scored a game-high tying 26 points. The Knicks shot .518 from the field, and each starter scored at least 14 points. Brown had been using Karl-Anthony Towns as a point center, but the Cavaliers' defense against Brunson turned Brunson into the primary playmaker, with Hart adding seven assists as well. Towns had 18 points, a game-high 13 rebounds, and just one assist; those numbers do not mean that Brown "forgot" about Towns or "doesn't know how to use Towns," but rather that the Knicks exploited the gaping holes in Cleveland's defense in other very effective ways.

Mitchell led the Cavaliers with 26 points, but Harden shot just 6-15 from the field to accumulate 18 points. Harden had no turnovers but also just two assists; the Cavaliers are smart to get the ball out of his hands as much as possible to limit his turnovers, but his inefficient shooting and leaky defense led to a game-worst -22 plus/minus number. The bottom line is that Harden is a defensive liability, and he cannot be hidden in the playoffs versus a good team that is well-coached. Evan Mobley had 14 first half points on 5-8 field goal shooting, but Atkinson, Mitchell, and Harden held Mobley to zero second half points on zero second half field goal attempts.

The Cavaliers are 8-8 in the 2026 playoffs, including 6-1 at home and 2-7 on the road, so I would not be surprised if the Cavaliers win at least one game versus the Knicks in Cleveland, and I will not fall into the common trap of being swayed by what happens from game to game; it is hilarious to listen to people who don't understand basketball--or who are trying to gain attention with hot takes--make outlandish proclamations on the basis of one game. No matter what happened in the previous game, the next game starts 0-0 with a different officiating crew and different circumstances. Playoff basketball is about matchups, and matchup advantages do not change (unless a player gets injured, or is disqualified via fouls or ejection); over the course of a series, I expect the team with the most matchup advantages to prevail, and that is why I expect the Knicks to win this series even though the sweep talk is premature. I picked the Knicks to win in six games, and that still seems reasonable, pending what happens in game three. Harden often has one or two decent games before his final choke of the series, and if he does not collapse in game three then the Cavaliers may hit enough shots to win.

Labels: Cleveland Cavaliers, Donovan Mitchell, Evan Mobley, Jalen Brunson, James Harden, Josh Hart, Karl-Anthony Towns, New York Knicks

posted by David Friedman @ 3:24 PM

2 comments