20 Second Timeout

2024-25 Eastern Conference Preview

The uncrowned champions crowned themselves in dominant fashion: after reaching the Eastern Conference Finals five times in a seven year span (2017-18, 2020, 2022-23) with just one NBA Finals appearance and no championships to their credit, the Boston Celtics cruised to a 64-18 regular season record in 2023-24 before embarking on a 16-3 playoff run that culminated in the franchise's first NBA title since 2008. The Celtics will have to survive the first portion of the 2024-25 regular season without the services of Kristaps Porzingis--who is recovering from left lower leg surgery--but they seem poised to mount another strong playoff run.

The New York Knicks have emerged as the biggest Eastern Conference threat to Boston's dominance. After posting a 50-32 regular season record--good for second place in the Eastern Conference, and the franchise's best win total since 2012-13--the injury-riddled Knicks lost a hard-fought second round series to the Indiana Pacers. The Knicks will miss center Isaiah Hartenstein (who joined the Oklahoma City Thunder), particularly because Mitchell Robinson will not be available at the start of the season due to injury, but the Knicks upgraded their roster during the offseason. First, they traded a package including three players and five first round draft picks to Brooklyn for Mikal Bridges, and then they made a blockbuster deal to acquire Karl-Anthony Towns from the Minnesota Timberwolves in exchange for Julius Randle, Donte DiVincenzo, and other considerations. Towns fills the void at center, and appears to be a better chemistry fit than Randle because Towns has demonstrated that he is fine with being the second option on offense, a concession that it is not clear that Randle would be willing or able to make.

The Indiana Pacers feature a potent offense orchestrated by All-Star point guard Tyrese Haliburton, but until they improve their porous defense they will be more of a spoiler than a contender--a worthy foe to any team in a playoff series, but a team unlikely to reach the Eastern Conference Finals again.

The perennially highly touted Philadelphia 76ers have not advanced past the second round of the playoffs since Allen Iverson led them to the 2001 NBA Finals. After tanking for several years, they have spent several more years trying to find the right combination of players to support the oft-injured Joel Embiid. My evaluation of the 76ers' playoff prospects is not changed by their acquisition of Paul George, who is almost as big of a playoff choker as his former L.A. Clipper teammate (and former 76er) James Harden; the 76ers most assuredly have not "tanked to the top," and they will not reach the top until they purge their organization of the flawed thinking promulgated by the "stat gurus" who have been running the show for the better part of the past decade.

The Milwaukee Bucks won the 2021 NBA championship, but they have not advanced past the second round since that time and have lost in the first round in each of the past two seasons. Giannis Antetokounmpo played in just three of Milwaukee's five playoff games in 2023, and he missed all six of Milwaukee's playoff games last season. Antetokounmpo has played in 73 games or less in each of the past six regular seasons, and it is fair to wonder if his hard-charging style has taken a toll on his body. Firing Coach Mike Budenholzer prior to last season and dealing Jrue Holiday for Damian Lillard are two moves that gutted Milwaukee's once elite defense. During the 2020-21 championship season, the Bucks ranked second in rebounding and fifth in defensive field goal percentage, and in Budenholzer's final season with the Bucks (2022-23) the Bucks led the league in rebounding and ranked second in defensive field goal percentage; last season, the Bucks ranked ninth in rebounding and 14th in defensive field goal percentage.

Listed below are the eight teams that I expect to qualify for the Eastern Conference playoffs, ranked based on their likelihood of advancing to the NBA Finals:

1) Boston Celtics: The Boston Celtics authored one of the most dominant seasons in NBA history, but there seems to be a reluctance to acknowledge their earned status as a great team, perhaps because the Celtics fell short so many times in recent years. The Celtics fired at will from three point range--averaging a league-high 42.5 three point field goal attempts per game--to the delight of "stat gurus" and to the dismay of more traditional basketball analysts, but it is important to understand that mad bombing is not why the Celtics won the championship. Much like when the Golden State Warriors won championships in 2015, 2017-18, and 2022 with a staunch defense that provided a sound foundation supporting all of the headline-grabbing three point shooting, the Celtics had an elite defense that ranked first in blocked shots, second in defensive field goal percentage, second in rebounding, and fifth in points allowed. It should be emphasized that the Warriors ranked first in defensive field goal percentage in 2015 and 2017, third in 2018, and second in 2022; last season, the Warriors ranked fourth in three point field goals attempted but ninth in defensive field goal percentage and 18th in points allowed.

Jaylen Brown averaged 23.0 ppg, 5.5 rpg, and 3.6 apg during the regular season to earn his third All-Star selection, but he was left off of both the All-NBA Team and the All-Defensive Team. Brown scored a playoff career-high 23.9 ppg on playoff career-high .516 field goal shooting en route to capturing both the Larry Bird Eastern Conference Finals MVP and the Bill Russell NBA Finals MVP. 

Brown played very well in both of those playoff series, but Jayson Tatum led Boston in scoring in the Eastern Conference Finals (30.3 ppg to Brown's 29.8 ppg) and the NBA Finals (22.2 ppg to Brown's 20.8 ppg). Scoring is not everything, but Tatum also led the Celtics in rebounding (7.8 rpg) and assists (7.2 apg) during the NBA Finals after pacing the Celtics in Eastern Conference Finals rebounding (10.3 rpg) while ranking second in assists (6.3 apg) behind Derrick White (6.5 apg). Tatum made the All-NBA First Team for the third straight year, and he finished sixth in regular season MVP voting after averaging 26.9 ppg, 8.1 rpg, and 4.9 apg. Tatum remains the team's best all-around player, and he forms a powerful duo with Brown.

Celtics fans should send letters of appreciation to the Milwaukee Bucks for trading Jrue Holiday for Damian Lillard. Holiday ended up in Boston, where he became a key member of the squad, and Lillard played a major role in Milwaukee's disappointing season. 

Kristaps Porzingis will miss the start of the season due to injury, and he has battled injuries throughout his career, but assuming that he returns at some point the Celtics have no weaknesses and should mount a strong run at becoming the first back to back NBA champions since Golden State in 2017-18.

2) New York Knicks: Jalen Brunson led the Knicks to the second round for the second consecutive season after the Knicks had not advanced that far since the 2012-13 season. Brunson's emergence as an All-NBA Second Team member and fifth place finisher in MVP voting has changed this franchise's trajectory after a decade of being stuck in the mud. Brunson set career highs in scoring (28.7 ppg, fourth in the league) and assists (6.7 apg) before lifting his numbers to 32.4 ppg and 7.5 apg in the playoffs. He scored 40 points in four straight playoff games, including the series clinching win versus Philadelphia and the series opening win versus Indiana.

The Knicks are a physical but undersized team that plays tough defense. They struggle to score efficiently. Last season after the Knicks lost Julius Randle to injury, Brunson was the only player on the roster who could consistently create shots for himself and others. Swapping Randle for Karl-Anthony Towns not only balances the Knicks' roster by adding some much needed size but also provides some range shooting that will open up the floor for Brunson. Newly acquired Mikal Bridges should help the Knicks at both ends of the court, and soften the blow of losing Donte DiVincenzo in the Randle-Towns trade.

Health is the biggest question mark for the Knicks. Assuming that they avoid significant injuries, the only other concern would be that even with Towns they are still a bit small.

3) Indiana Pacers: Two-time All-Star and 2024 NBA assist leader Tyrese Haliburton orchestrates an offense that led the league in scoring (123.3 ppg), field goal percentage (.507), and assists (30.8 apg), but the Pacers will not win a championship until they improve their defense, which ranked last in points allowed (120.2 ppg) and defensive field goal percentage (.496). The slightly built Haliburton has played in 69 games or less in three of his first four NBA seasons, so his durability is questionable.

Midseason acquisition Pascal Siakam led the team in scoring down the stretch (21.3 ppg in 41 regular season games with the Pacers) and in the playoffs (21.6 ppg). His versatility, championship experience, and ability to create his own shot in crunch time were all critical factors during Indiana's run to the Eastern Conference Finals.

Most of the Pacers' key rotation players are younger than 30, so this team has the potential to improve if they don't rest on last year's laurels, and focus on becoming better defensively.

4) Philadelphia 76ers: In my 2023-24 Eastern Conference preview, I posed the following questions to Daryl Morey:

1. Do you still believe that James Harden is a better scorer than Michael Jordan?
2. Do you regret staking your reputation on the hope that Harden would outperform his horrific elimination game resume (to which Harden added yet another awful stat line last season)? 
3. Do you still believe that your application of "advanced basketball statistics" confers a tangible advantage for your team even though the playoff results for your Houston teams were statistically no better than average and your Philadelphia teams have yet to advance past the second round? 
   

Those questions proved to be pertinent, and they foreshadowed yet another disappointing season for the 76ers. The disgruntled Harden forced his way out of Philadelphia before last season began, and Harden's season ended in typical fashion as he posted his familiar "concert tour" numbers. After the 76ers lost in the first round, Morey consulted his spreadsheets, and he convinced himself that 34 year old Paul George--whose playoff choking resume is similar to Harden's--will provide the necessary spark to finally lift Joel Embiid past the second round of the playoffs. 

If Embiid and George stay healthy--a big "if" considering their recent injury histories--then they can form a powerful trio with Tyrese Maxey and win more than 50 regular season games, but the crucial test for Morey's latest attempt to form a super team will happen in the playoffs. Embiid has a 5-7 career playoff series record, and he has shot worse than .470 from the field in nine of those 12 playoff series; during the playoffs, he has consistently been injured, inefficient, or both. Until that changes, the 76ers are going nowhere fast, regardless of how many regular season wins they stack up.

5) Milwaukee Bucks: In 2021, the 26 year old Giannis Antetokounmpo won his first NBA title and first NBA Finals MVP after previously capturing back to back regular season MVPs. The Bucks had posted the best record in the Eastern Conference in 2019 and 2020, and it appeared that Antetokounmpo and his squad were poised to dominate the East--if not the entire league--for the next several years. Instead, the Bucks failed to advance past the second round in each of the next two seasons, leading management to conclude that a shakeup was necessary to prevent Antetokounmpo from leaving for greener pastures. 

However, in the wake of the departures of Coach Mike Budenholzer and two-way performer Jrue Holiday, the Bucks collapsed defensively and lost 4-2 to Indiana in the first round. Antetokounmpo missed the entire series due to injury, but during the regular season the Bucks struggled against the Pacers even with Antetokounmpo. Damian Lillard, who was acquired in exchange for Holiday, posted the third worst field goal percentage of his career (.424) as his scoring average dropped nearly 8 ppg.

Coach Doc Rivers joined the team in mid-season after the firing of rookie Coach Adrian Griffin, so perhaps the Bucks will be better after having a full training camp with Rivers at the helm--but Antetokounmpo's recent inability to be healthy for the playoffs and Damian Lillard's 4-9 career playoff series record do not inspire much confidence that the Bucks will be a championship contender.

6) Orlando Magic: The young Magic are a team on the rise, and after reaching the playoffs for the first time since 2020 they seek to win a playoff series for the first time since the Magic reached the NBA Finals in 2010. The top four players in Orlando's rotation last season (based on mpg averages)--Paolo Banchero, Franz Wagner, Jalen Suggs, and Wendell Carter, Jr.--are each younger than 25. Newly acquired Kentavious Caldwell-Pope brings veteran experience, tenacious defense, and championship savvy. 

Banchero built on his 2023 Rookie of the Year campaign by improving his scoring from 20.0 ppg to 22.6 ppg while also lifting his field goal percentage (.427 to .455) and three point field goal percentage (.298 to .339). Considering his size and athletic gifts, he should have a big impact on the boards, but he averaged just 6.9 rpg in each of his first two seasons.

The Magic are a stout defensive team that needs to improve their offensive efficiency after scoring just 100.3 ppg on .420 field goal shooting in a seven game first round loss to the Cleveland Cavaliers.

7) Cleveland Cavaliers: The Cavaliers fired Coach J.B. Bickerstaff despite the fact that the 2023-24 squad matched reasonable expectations by finishing fourth in the Eastern Conference standings before losing in the second round to the eventual NBA champion Boston Celtics. The Cavaliers went 22-50 in their first full season under Bickerstaff, improved to 44-38 the next season, went 51-31 in year three, and then posted a solid 48-34 record last season. They reached the playoffs in each of the past two seasons, and last season they won a playoff series for the first time since 2018. That was also the franchise's first playoff series win without LeBron James since 1993. It is not clear why the front office believes that the team will have significantly better results under new Coach Kenny Atkinson, who is a good coach but not a clear upgrade over Bickerstaff.

The Cavaliers signed Donovan Mitchell to a three year contract extension in July after he became just the second Cavalier to average at least 25.0 ppg, at least 5.0 rpg, and at least 5.0 apg in the same season (not surprisingly, the other Cavalier to match that feat is LeBron James). Mitchell's 29.6 ppg playoff scoring average last season is the sixth highest in Cavaliers history (minimum of 10 games), and casual fans may be surprised to learn that Mitchell owns the seventh highest career playoff scoring average (28.1 ppg) in ABA/NBA history, trailing only Michael Jordan, Luka Doncic, Allen Iverson, Kevin Durant, Jerry West, and LeBron James.

Mitchell is a dynamic offensive player and the Cavaliers are a solid defensive team, but in their two most recent playoff runs they struggled to score efficiently even with Mitchell posting gaudy numbers. Last season, the Cavaliers finished fourth in the Eastern Conference, but the three teams right behind them in the standings--Orlando, Indiana, and Philadelphia--each had 47 wins and each look better on paper this season than they did last season. The Cavaliers could very well post a comparable win total to last season and slip three spots in the standings.

8) Miami Heat: In the past five years, the Heat have reached the NBA Finals twice (2020, 2023), and lost in the first round twice (2021, 2024) while also losing once in the Eastern Conference Finals (2022). They are a hard-nosed team that is good defensively, anemic offensively, and weak on the boards because they are undersized. Erik Spoelstra is one of the league's top coaches, but Jimmy Butler is 35 years old and has not played more than 65 games in a season since 2017. "Playoff Jimmy" may be a thing, but if regular season Jimmy does not show up then the Heat will have a low playoff seed and get bounced again in the first round. Even if everything breaks right for this team, it is difficult to picture the Heat beating any of the top four Eastern Conference teams in a playoff series if those teams are even close to full strength.

The teams that finish seventh through 10th in the regular season standings will participate in the Play-In Tournament. The above eight teams are the teams that I predict will qualify for the playoffs, regardless of what the final regular season standings are. 

The Atlanta Hawks went 36-46 last season, and then traded Dejounte Murray for Dyson Daniels, E.J. Liddell, Larry Nance Jr., Cody Zeller, and two future first round draft picks. The Hawks ranked 21st in field goal percentage, 28th in defensive field goal percentage, and 28th in points allowed, numbers that are unlikely to improve as long as Trae Young gets the most minutes, takes the most shots, and runs the show. His 25.7 ppg and 10.8 apg last season are an excellent example of empty calorie individual numbers that do not equate to team success. 

The Chicago Bulls added Josh Giddey but subtracted Alex Caruso and DeMar DeRozan. The Bulls have reached the playoffs once (2022) in the past seven seasons, and that trend of missing the playoffs figures to continue in 2024-25.

Rookie Coach Jordi Fernandez has his hands full with a Brooklyn Nets roster that reflects the franchise's current plan of going young and stockpiling draft picks (also known as tanking).

The Toronto Raptors are in full rebuild mode, as no rotation players from the 2019 championship team remain on the roster. They are not necessarily in full tank mode, because they have already drafted a talented young player--Scottie Barnes--who they hope will have franchise-changing impact.

The Charlotte Hornets are all buzz and no sting, ranking 30th (last) in rebounding, 28th in scoring, 27th in defensive field goal percentage, and 26th in field goal percentage.

The Washington Wizards have not been relevant since Russell Westbrook carried the team that should be known as the "Wheeze-hards" to the 2021 playoffs.

Former Cleveland Coach J.B. Bickerstaff stayed in the Central Division and will try to jump start the sputtering Detroit Pistons, who posted a league-worst 14-68 record last season after posting a league-worst 17-65 record in 2022-23.

**********
Note:

I correctly picked seven of the eight 2024 Eastern Conference playoff teams. Here are my statistics for previous seasons:

2023: 7/8
2022: 6/8
2021: 6/8
2020: 7/8
2019: 6/8
2018: 6/8
2017: 5/8
2016: 5/8
2015: 5/8
2014: 6/8
2013: 7/8
2012: 8/8
2011: 5/8
2010: 6/8
2009: 6/8
2008: 5/8
2007: 7/8
2006: 6/8

2006-2024 Total: 117/152 (.770)

Labels: Boston Celtics, Cleveland Cavaliers, Indiana Pacers, Miami Heat, Milwaukee Bucks, New York Knicks, Orlando Magic, Philadelphia 76ers

posted by David Friedman @ 2:42 AM

4 comments