2026-27 Eastern Conference Preview
Last season, the New York Knicks won their first NBA title since 1973. The Knicks enjoyed a dominant 16-3 playoff run that included a 13 game winning streak, which is the second longest playoff winning streak in NBA history--but to earn a repeat championship they will have to navigate an Eastern Conference landscape that has been reshaped by significant trades and free agent signings.
After posting a 56-26 record to finish second in the Eastern Conference in what was expected to be a gap year, the Boston Celtics traded 2024 NBA Finals MVP Jaylen Brown to the Philadelphia 76ers for Paul George, two first round draft picks, and two second round draft picks. This trade represented the culmination of the Celtics' efforts to manage their high payroll while still trying to remain a strong playoff team. It is surprising that these two historic rivals made a trade with each other, particularly right after the 76ers recovered from a 3-1 deficit to beat the Celtics in the first round of the 2026 playoffs. The Celtics should not be any worse in the regular season with a healthy Tatum plus George than they were last season with Brown but without Tatum for most of the season, but the unanswered question is if the Celtics can go farther in the playoffs than they did last season.
The Brown acquisition paved the way for the 76ers to sign free agent LeBron James to a two year veteran minimum deal. The 76ers have not won a championship since Moses Malone and Julius Erving led the 76ers to the 1983 NBA title, and the 76ers have not reached the NBA Finals since 2001. James has spent most of his career building or joining "super teams," and he has won at least one championship with each of his previous teams--Miami (2012, 2013), Cleveland (2016), L.A. Lakers (2020)--but Joel Embiid has spent more than a decade not staying healthy and not advancing past the second round.
The Cleveland Cavaliers reached the Eastern Conference Finals for the first time since LeBron James led the Cavaliers to four straight NBA Finals appearances from 2015-18. In the past four years, the Cavaliers lost in the first round, lost in the second round two years in a row, and then lost in the Eastern Conference Finals; on paper, the team seems to be on an upward trajectory, but relying heavily on James Harden will doom the Cavaliers to not advance past the Eastern Conference Finals--and to probably not even advancing that far again with him on the roster. Since he fled Oklahoma City in 2012, Harden's record in games when his team faced elimination is 5-14, and he played poorly in most of those games. When it matters most, Harden disappears, and that 14 year pattern is highly unlikely to change as his career winds down.
The Detroit Pistons posted the Eastern Conference's best record before losing 4-3 to the Cleveland Cavaliers in the second round. Coach J.B. Bickerstaff has lifted the Pistons from a 14-68 record under Monty Williams in 2023-24 to 44-38 in 2024-25 and 60-22 last season. This offseason, the Pistons parted ways with two of the top six players (based on mpg) in their rotation (Tobias Harris and Isaiah Stewart) along with Caris LeVert while adding John Collins, Isaiah Joe, and Taurean Prince. The Pistons are an elite defensive team, but they struggled to score during the playoffs, to the extent that they fell behind 3-1 in the first round before beating the Orlando Magic in seven games. The Pistons scored 105 points or less in each of the first four games of that series, and after surviving that scare they collapsed in game seven at home in the second round, losing 125-94 to the Cavaliers. It seems unlikely that the Pistons will win 60 games in the tough Eastern Conference, and it is not clear that their offseason moves made them a stronger postseason team.
With Pat Riley at the helm, the Miami Heat have chased and acquired big stars for decades, from Alonzo Mourning to Tim Hardaway to Shaquille O'Neal to LeBron James to Chris Bosh to Jimmy Butler, resulting in three NBA titles (2006, 2012, 2013) plus four other NBA Finals appearances (2011, 2014, 2020, 2023). This offseason, the Heat acquired Giannis Antetokounmpo, a two-time regular season MVP (2019-20) who led the Milwaukee Bucks to the 2021 NBA title. The Heat now have a formidable frontcourt rotation featuring Antetokounmpo, Bam Adebayo, Bobby Portis (acquired from Milwaukee along with Antetokounmpo), and Andrew Wiggins. The Heat are relying on offseason acquisitions Klay Thompson and Tim Hardaway Jr. to provide reliable volume three point shooting.
Listed below are the eight teams that I expect to qualify for the Eastern
Conference playoffs, ranked based on their likelihood of advancing to the NBA
Finals:
1) New York Knicks: The Knicks joined a short list of teams who won a championship after replacing a very successful coach. Mike Brown guided the Knicks to their first NBA title since 1973 in his first season at the helm after the Knicks fired Tom Thibodeau, who had just led the team to the Eastern Conference Finals for the first time since 2000 while taking the Knicks to three straight playoff appearances for the first time since 2011-13.
The Knicks only improved by two regular season wins under Brown--from 51-to 53--but they made a huge leap in defensive field goal percentage, jumping from 25th to fifth, and that carried over into the postseason; during the 2025 playoffs, the Knicks ranked eighth out of 16 teams in defensive field goal percentage, but in the 2026 playoffs the Knicks ranked third in defensive field goal percentage. The Knicks ranked first in field goal percentage in the 2026 playoffs after ranking fifth in field goal percentage in the 2025 playoffs. The Knicks' increased efficiency at both ends of the court translated into several blowout wins and several comebacks from significant deficits because the Knicks were able to both clamp down opposing offenses and go on hot shooting streaks.
Jalen Brunson has exceeded all reasonable expectations for what can be achieved by a 6-2 player who is not a high flyer and who is not exceptionally quick. What Brunson lacks in height, vertical leap, and explosiveness is more than compensated for with his savvy, footwork, clutch shotmaking, and toughness. During the regular season, he led the Knicks in scoring (26.0 ppg) and assists (6.8 apg) to earn his third straight selections as both an All-Star and as a member of the All-NBA Second Team. He did not receive a single regular season MVP vote after finishing 10th in 2024-25 and fifth in 2023-24. Brunson lifted his game in the playoffs, averaging 28.4 ppg and 6.1 apg overall, including 32.6 ppg and 4.6 apg in the NBA Finals to earn the Bill Russell NBA Finals MVP.
During the regular season, Karl Anthony-Towns averaged 20.1 ppg and 11.9 rpg (ranking second in the league for the second year in a row). His playoff numbers (15.9 ppg, 10.6 rpg, 4.9 apg, playoff career-high .551 FG%) only hint at his tremendous impact during the Knicks' championship run. After the Knicks fell behind 2-1 versus the Atlanta Hawks in the first round, Towns morphed into an elite playmaker, posting at least six assists in seven straight games as the Knicks won three in a row versus the Hawks before sweeping the Philadelphia 76ers, 4-0. Towns had triple doubles against the Hawks in game four (20 points, 10 rebounds, 10 assists) and in game six (12 points, 11 rebounds, 10 assists). Prior to that remarkable stretch, Towns' playoff career-high for assists had been five. Towns' playmaking put pressure on opposing defenses that were already stretched to the breaking point trying to contend with Brunson's herky jerky game and impeccable footwork in the paint.
Other than losing valuable backup center Mitchell Robinson to the Boston Celtics, the Knicks kept their championship rotation intact; the chemistry that those players built during the playoff run will serve them well during any rough spots in the regular season and playoffs.
2) Boston Celtics: Despite Jayson Tatum missing 66 games while recovering from a ruptured right Achilles and despite trading key rotation players Jrue Holiday and Kristaps Porzingis to save money to avoid the dreaded second apron, the Celtics posted the Eastern Conference's second best record (56-26). After Tatum returned late in the season, the Celtics looked poised to make a deep playoff run, but the Celtics' postseason ending abruptly when they lost three straight games after taking a 3-1 first round lead versus the Philadelphia 76ers. Tatum averaged 23.3 ppg, a team-high 10.7 rpg, and a team-high 6.8 apg in the first six games before missing game seven due to left knee stiffness.
Instead of running it back with the Tatum-Brown duo leading the way, the Celtics shipped Brown to the 76ers for Paul George, a 36 year old swingman who played in just 37 games last season, with 25 of his missed games stemming from a suspension for violating the NBA's drug policy. He did not exactly set the world on fire when he played, averaging 17.3 ppg, 5.3 rpg, and 3.7 apg, falling to reach his career norms in all three categories. George is a nine-time All-Star, but he made the All-Star team just three times in the past seven seasons, with his last selection coming in 2024. The Celtics also signed free agent center Mitchell Robinson, a move that bolstered their frontcourt while weakening the Knicks' frontcourt. Robinson provides physicality and rebounding, particularly on the offensive glass.
Losing Brown for George and Robinson is a net minus, but it is important to remember that the Celtics also "gained" Tatum. The Celtics are well-run and well-coached, so unless Tatum gets hurt again they should maintain their perch near the top of the Eastern Conference standings. The main concern for the Celtics is that they rely too heavily on high volume three point shooting, a high variance strategy that does not tend to correlate with championship success; the Celtics shot 13-49 (.265) from three point range in their game seven loss to the 76ers. Indiscriminate long range bombing only works when it is paired with elite defense and rebounding. When the Celtics won the 2024 NBA championship, they ranked second in the league in defensive field goal percentage, second in rebounding, and fifth in points allowed during the regular season in addition to ranking first in three point field goals made; during the 2024 playoffs, they ranked third in points allowed, third in rebounding and sixth in defensive field goal percentage.
3) Philadelphia 76ers: If you squint while looking into a crystal ball, it is possible to see a world in which the Philadelphia 76ers win the 2027 NBA championship; in that world, Joel Embiid and LeBron James are both healthy enough to play in at least 60 regular season games plus a full slate of playoff games while not only scoring efficiently but also playing solid defense--and in that world, Jaylen Brown is one of the top three wings in the NBA, Tyrese Maxey is an All-NBA shooting guard, and the rotation players are willing to sacrifice offensively while playing strong defense.
However, in the real world, Joel Embiid has never advanced past the second round of the playoffs in his 12 season career (including missing two full seasons due to injuries), and he has played in 39 games or less in each of the past three seasons. He has played in at least 60 games in a season only four times. James is a remarkably durable player, but since playing in all 82 games in 2017-18 (his age 33 season) he has played at least 70 games in a season just twice in eight years while playing in 60 games or less five times. James has not received a vote in Defensive Player of the Year balloting since 2017, and he has not made the All-Defensive Team since 2014. Expecting Embiid and James to not only remain healthy but to play anything close to championship caliber defense is a major reach.
Maxey is the 76ers' best and most consistent player. He averaged a career-high 28.3 ppg last season with .462/.367/.892 shooting splits while also dishing for a career-high 6.6 apg. However, he ranks fourth on this squad in star power behind four-time regular season MVP/four-time NBA Finals MVP James, one-time regular season MVP Embiid, and one-time NBA Finals MVP Brown. It is almost certain that James will be the dominant ballhandler, meaning that he will decide when and how often everyone else gets to touch the ball. It will be interesting to see how this team navigates the potentially rough waters of creating offensive chemistry when the two biggest stars are likely to (1) miss a lot of games and (2) exert less than full effort defensively.
4) Cleveland Cavaliers: How meaningful is it that the Cavaliers reached the 2026 Eastern Conference Finals? As I noted in my 2020 assessment of Daryl Morey's legacy up to that point, the NBA's competitive balance means that over a long enough period of time most teams advance that far at least once:
How significant is it to reach the Conference Finals? Two teams advance that far each year in each conference, so if those appearances were evenly distributed over a 13 year period with 15 teams in each conference then each team would average 1.7 Conference Finals appearances. In the past 13 years, 10 Eastern Conference teams and 10 Western Conference teams made at least one Conference Finals appearance and six teams in each conference made at least two Conference Finals appearances.
On one hand, it is an accomplishment to reach the Conference Finals, which is the NBA's equivalent of the NCAA Final Four; on the other hand, the NBA is structured to promote parity, which is why so many teams reach the Conference Finals once only to rapidly fall off, with the 2019 Portland Trail Blazers and the 2021 Atlanta Hawks being two prime examples of teams that made fluky Conference Finals runs while being led by offense-first/defense-optional guards. The Cavaliers are more talented, deeper, and better defensively than those two squads, but it takes a lot for a team to overcome the negatives that James Harden brings in terms of team chemistry, defense, and playoff choking.
The Cavaliers' two main offseason moves were signing contract extensions for Donovan Mitchell and James Harden. Extending Mitchell is a no-brainer--he is the team's best player and he is in his prime. Extending Harden is questionable long term but not surprising; the Cavaliers have hitched their wagon to Harden, and they are going to ride that wagon until it reaches the finish line or until the wheels fall off. In my 2025-26 Eastern Conference Preview, I declared, "I don't trust the Cavaliers versus the Knicks in a best of seven series"--and that was before the Cavaliers traded Darius Garland for Harden, who subsequently added yet another line to his horrific elimination game resume by scoring 12 points on 2-8 field goal shooting while committing five turnovers as the Knicks routed the Cavaliers 130-93 to complete a 4-0 sweep in the 2026 Eastern Conference Finals. I can't picture any team winning a championship while relying on Harden as a key player, but maybe the Cavaliers will unlock hidden playoff greatness in Harden that Oklahoma City, Houston, Brooklyn, Philadelphia, and the L.A. Clippers could not find.
The Cavaliers also acquired Peyton Watson in a five team deal and then signed the 3 and D wing to a four year, $88 million deal. Watson's tall task is to make up for the defensive deficiencies of the Cavaliers' guards and wings. What Watson cannot do is make up for the Cavaliers' inexplicable softness in the paint despite having two highly touted big men (Evan Mobley and Jarrett Allen). During the Eastern Conference Finals, the Knicks outrebounded the Cavaliers 46.0 rpg to 36.8 rpg and the Knicks outscored the Cavaliers in the paint by 12.5 ppg. Teams that get pushed around don't win championships.
The Cavaliers will win at least 50 regular season games, and they will almost certainly win their first round playoff series, but anything after that is a question mark as long as Harden is running the point. Harden's career record in the first round is 11-6, and his record in subsequent rounds is 6-11. That 17-17 playoff series record overall includes a 5-3 mark when he was Oklahoma City's third option behind Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook, so Harden's playoff series record as the number one option (or at least the primary ballhandler) is 12-14, including 3-9 after the first round.
5) Detroit Pistons: Cade Cunningham has earned consecutive All-Star selections and consecutive All-NBA Team selections, including his first All-NBA First Team honor last season. He is an elite scorer and playmaker, and he rebounds well for a point guard. At just 25 years old, the five year veteran has likely not yet reached his peak. Cunningham's main weakness is that he can be sloppy with the ball; he has averaged 5.6 tpg in 20 career playoff games. The Pistons need to acquire or develop a competent secondary ballhandler to take some of the pressure off of Cunningham.
Jalen Duren had a breakout regular season, averaging a career-high 19.5 ppg to earn his first All-Star selection and his first All-NBA selection (Third Team) but in the playoffs he went from breakout to broken down, averaging just 10.2 ppg. Duren and the Pistons spent most of the offseason in a standoff regarding the length and amount of his contract extension before he finally signed a five year extension for $200 million, which is significantly less than the max deal for which he was eligible.
It might seem odd to say this about a young team that just finished with the best record in the Eastern Conference (60-22), but there are more questions than answers for the Pistons, and it does not seem likely that the Pistons will match last season's win total or advance past the second round of the playoffs.
6) Miami Heat: In a busy and productive offseason, the Heat acquired Giannis Antetokounmpo, Bobby Portis, Klay Thompson, and Tim Hardaway Jr. Antetokounmpo, Bam Adebayo, and Bobby Portis form one of the league's best big men trios, while Thompson and Hardaway Jr. provide much-needed perimeter shooting, and 2014 number one overall draft pick Andrew Wiggins is a consistent scorer who has averaged at least 13.4 ppg in each of his 12 NBA seasons.
The questions about the Heat revolve around the point guard position and overall depth. Antetokounmpo can be a playmaker in open court situations and even in some half court sets--as can Adebayo--but the Heat lack a veteran, dependable point guard who can run the offense.
Erik Spoelstra may be the NBA's best coach. He will make sure that this team plays good defense and plays offense as efficiently as possible, but until the Heat upgrade their point guard rotation and bolster their depth they will not be a championship contender.
7) Toronto Raptors: Last season, the Raptors finished 46-36 while ranking seventh in field goal percentage and 10th in defensive field goal percentage. They pushed eventual Eastern Conference Finalist Cleveland to seven games in the first round.
Scottie Barnes (18.1 ppg, 7.5 rpg, 5.9 apg) earned his second All-Star selection in the past three seasons while finishing fifth in Defensive Player of the Year voting and making the All-Defensive Second Team for the first time. Barnes was the best all-around player on a young team that could use some veteran leadership.
Enter Kawhi Leonard: this offseason, the Raptors shipped the oft-injured Brandon Ingram (21.5 ppg) and Gradey Dick to the L.A. Clippers for the oft-injured Leonard, who earned the second of his two NBA Finals MVPs after leading the Raptors to the 2019 NBA title, the first and only championship in franchise history. Leonard averaged a career-high 27.9 ppg in 64 games for the Clippers last season, and he emerged largely unscathed from the Clippers' salary cap circumvention debacle.
If Leonard stays healthy--a major "if" for a player who has participated in at least 65 regular season games just twice in the past nine seasons--then he and Barnes could be a formidable duo, but the more realistic scenario is that Leonard misses a lot of games and the Raptors end up with around the same number of wins that they had last season. Even if Leonard is healthy, the Raptors' lack of size will hurt them versus the better Eastern Conference teams that have All-Star big men--and it should be noted that Leonard has not advanced past the second round of the playoffs since 2019 (the Clippers reached the 2021 Western Conference Finals after Leonard suffered a season-ending injury in the second round).
8) Orlando Magic: The Magic fired coach Jamahl Mosley after losing in the first round for the third straight year. They replaced him with Sean Sweeney, who will make his NBA head coaching debut after serving as an NBA assistant coach for 13 seasons with five different teams.
Under Mosley, the Magic played at a slow pace but were mediocre at best at both ends of the court; last season, the Magic ranked 13th in the league in points allowed, 15th in points scored, 19th in defensive field goal percentage, and 21st in field goal percentage.
Paolo Banchero is the team's best player, but he has not progressed much since winning the 2023 Rookie of the Year award and earning his lone All-Star selection in 2024. Last season, he averaged 22.2 ppg, 8.4 rpg, and 5.2 apg, good numbers that are in line with his career averages (22.3 ppg, 7.4 rpg, 4.8 apg). He raises his game in the playoffs (27.4 ppg, 8.7 rpg, 4.9 apg in 19 career playoff games) but that has not been enough to win even one playoff series. Banchero is not an efficient scorer or an above average defensive player.
When Banchero, Franz Wagner (20.6 ppg in 34 games last season), and Desmond Bane (20.1 ppg in a team-high 82 games last season) are healthy the Magic have a solid "big three" surrounded by a decent rotation that includes Jalen Suggs (13.8 ppg, team-high 5.5 apg last season), Anthony Black, and Wendell Carter Jr. A couple years ago, the Magic were viewed as a team on the rise, but after losing in the first round for three straight years while not making any significant roster upgrades the more realistic perspective is that this is a lower tier playoff team that is not a serious threat to the Eastern Conference's top teams.
The teams that finish seventh through
10th in the regular season standings will participate in the Play-In
Tournament. The above eight teams are the teams that I predict will
qualify for the
playoffs, regardless of what the final regular season standings are.
The Indiana Pacers are a popular pick to be a sleeper team with the return of Tyrese Haliburton from a ruptured right Achilles, but the Pacers went 19-63 last season so they would need to add at least 20-25 wins to that total just to reach the Play-In Tournament. The Pacers are counting heavily on Ivica Zubac to replace the impact provided by Myles Turner during the team's 2025 playoff run to the NBA Finals. Even assuming that Haliburton will be as good as he was before the injury--which is far from certain for a perimeter player who relies on quickness and agility--it will be a tall task for the Pacers to jump from being the second worst team in the Eastern Conference to being a top eight team, let alone being a championship contender.
Last season, the Atlanta Hawks made the playoffs for the first time in three seasons, and they took a 2-1 first round lead versus the Knicks before losing three games in a row by double digit margins. The Knicks' 140-89 game six win indicated that the gap between an NBA championship team and the Hawks is quite large. In the offseason, the Hawks bolstered their backcourt by acquiring Lu Dort, Ryan Nembhard, and Aaron Wiggins, but that will not be enough to keep the Hawks in the top eight in a strong Eastern Conference.
Jerry Krause infamously said "Organizations win championships," but since Krause broke up the "Last Dance" Bulls team after the 1998 championship season the Bulls have won just five playoff series in 27 seasons and they have not advanced past the first round since 2015; it takes four series wins to capture an NBA title, so the Bulls' (dis)organization has not accomplished much since chasing away Michael Jordan and company. I've lost count of how many five year plans the Bulls have started during that time, but they have once again restructured their front office and hired a new coach. As The Who song goes, "Meet the new boss, same as the old boss." Last season, the Bulls ranked 28th in points allowed and 22nd in defensive field goal percentage; they will have to significantly improve those rankings to make the playoffs.
The Milwaukee Bucks traded away franchise player Giannis Antetokounpo for several solid players, and that is just not a recipe for making the playoffs. Not surprisingly, no NBA team has performed better in the season after trading away a former regular season MVP. The Bucks missed the playoffs last season with Antetokounmpo, and they will miss the playoffs this season without him.
The Charlotte Hornets narrowly missed the playoffs last season, but instead of standing pat they did a significant roster makeover, capped off by trading dynamic point guard LaMelo Ball to the Minnesota Timberwolves for Naz Reid and draft picks. Perhaps the Hornets' management felt that the roster as constructed had peaked and thus change was necessary, but at least in the short run the Hornets look to be a worse team now than they were at the end of last season.
Washington Wizards' fans hope that Anthony Davis and Trae Young will lead the team to the playoffs for the first time since Russell Westbrook carried the team that should be known as the "Wheeze-hards" to the 2021 playoffs, but since 2020 Davis has missed the playoffs three times while advancing past the second round just once, while Trae Young has reached the playoffs three times in his eight season career. It would be a huge disappointment if the Wizards are not better than they were last season when they were losing on purpose, but it is unlikely that this team will make the playoffs.
Last season, the Brooklyn Nets ranked 30th (last) in the league in field goal percentage, defensive field goal percentage, and rebounding. Their biggest offseason move was acquiring Julius Randle from the Minnesota Timberwolves in a multi-team deal. Randle has a career scoring average of 19.1 ppg on .472 field goal shooting, so he may help the Nets escape the field goal percentage basement, but he is not going to significantly impact the team's defense or rebounding. The Nets had the third worst record in the Eastern Conference last season, narrowly edging out two teams (Indiana and Washington) that were not trying very hard to win. The NBA changed rules to remove the incentives for tanking, so with every team presumably trying to win the Nets could be the worst team in the Eastern Conference next season.
**********
Note:
I correctly picked six of the eight 2026 Eastern Conference playoff teams. Here are
my statistics for previous seasons:
2025: 7/8
2024: 7/8
2023: 7/8
2022: 6/8
2021: 6/8
2020: 7/8
2019: 6/8
2018: 6/8
2017: 5/8
2016: 5/8
2015: 5/8
2014: 6/8
2013: 7/8
2012: 8/8
2011: 5/8
2010: 6/8
2009: 6/8
2008: 5/8
2007: 7/8
2006: 6/8
2006-2025 Total: 130/168 (.774)
Labels: Boston Celtics, Cleveland Cavaliers, Detroit Pistons, Miami Heat, New York Knicks, Orlando Magic, Philadelphia 76ers, Toronto Raptors
posted by David Friedman @ 11:17 PM
Observations About the Opening Weekend of the 2026 NBA Playoffs
The eight series opening games from the first round of the 2026 NBA playoffs are in the books. Six games went as I expected, with the exceptions being Houston falling apart versus the L.A. Lakers after Kevin Durant did not play because of a bruised knee and Detroit losing meekly versus Orlando. It should be noted that even though it is often said that the first game of a playoff series is "a feel out game," the reality is that game one winners won the series 77.1% of the time since the NBA went to the current 16 team playoff format in the 1983-84 season. Last year, game one winners won 12 out of 15 playoff series, including all eight first round series.
Here are my observations about each game, and my thoughts about each series.
The 2026 NBA playoffs kicked off on Saturday with the Cleveland Cavaliers taming the Toronto Raptors, 126-113. The Cavaliers did not trail in the second half, and led 100-76 with 11:47 remaining in the fourth quarter. Both teams shot well from the field--Cleveland shot .543, Toronto shot .521--but the Cavaliers had 10 more field goal attempts because they won the rebounding battle 33-27 and because they had fewer turnovers. Donovan Mitchell scored a game-high 32 points on 11-20 field goal shooting; he has scored at least 30 points in an NBA-record nine consecutive series openers.
Max Strus added 24 points off of the bench on 8-10 field goal shooting, and James Harden contributed 22 points plus a game-high 10 assists. RJ Barrett paced the Raptors with 24 points on 7-13 field goal shooting. Mitchell scored 11 third quarter points as the Cavaliers outscored the Raptors 36-22 to blow open a game that had been close (61-54 Cleveland lead) at halftime. The final numbers are skewed a bit by fourth quarter garbage time--the Cavaliers were outrebounded 7-4 in the final stanza and they committed six of their 15 turnovers in the final 12 minutes--but the big picture view is that the Cavaliers are clearly the superior team, so we will not see Harden's annual playoff disappearing act until the second round.
In Saturday's second game, Denver's Nikola Jokic-Jamal Murray duo overwhelmed the Minnesota Timberwolves in a 116-105 win. Murray made all 16 of his free throws and scored a game-high 30 points despite shooting just 7-22 from the field. He also had seven assists and five rebounds. Jokic authored his 22nd career playoff triple double (25 points, game-high 13 rebounds, game-high 11 assists). He ranks third in career playoff triple doubles behind Magic Johnson (30) and LeBron James (28). Russell Westbrook (12) and Jason Kidd (11) round out the top five. At times, the Timberwolves seemed more focused on acting tough--by committing hard fouls and engaging in extra physical contact after the play--than playing tough, but the Nuggets stayed above the fray for the most part. Anthony Edwards led the Timberwolves with 22 points while also contributing nine rebounds and a team-high seven assists, but he shot just 7-19 from the field. These teams have been evenly matched in recent years, but the Timberwolves took command early with a 27-15 lead late in the first quarter. The Nuggets fought back to a 62-62 halftime tie before outscoring the Timberwolves 29-17 in the decisive third quarter. Jokic (12 points) and Murray (10 points) outscored the Timberwolves in the third quarter. Both teams showed that they are capable of making big runs, so this figures to be a long series.
Next, the New York Knicks grounded the young Atlanta Hawks, 113-102. Jalen Brunson scored a game-high 28 points on 9-22 field goal shooting, and he also had a team-high seven assists. Karl-Anthony Towns scored 25 points, grabbed eight rebounds, passed for four assists, blocked three shots, and committed a game-high tying five turnovers. C.J. McCollum led the Hawks with 26 points but he had just one assist while matching Towns for game-high "honors" with five turnovers. Jalen Johnson had 23 points and seven rebounds in his first playoff game as a starter after being a lightly used reserve in his first six playoff games. In the first half, Brunson (22 points) and McCollum (17 points) had a backcourt scoring duel, with the Knicks leading 57-55 at intermission. Towns dominated in the second half with 19 points as the Knicks outscored the Hawks 56-47 in the final 24 minutes. The Hawks vastly improved by getting rid of Trae Young, but they are not quite ready for prime time.
Saturday's final game provided the first surprise of the weekend: Kevin Durant was a late scratch because of a bruised knee that he suffered during practice. The Houston Rockets seemed baffled, lethargic, and offensively inept without Durant, shooting just 35-93 (.376) from the field in a 107-98 loss to the L.A. Lakers. The Lakers entered the series sans Luka Doncic and Austin Reaves, but they had some time before the playoffs began to adjust their rotation and roles accordingly.
The Rockets--who lost starting point guard Fred VanVleet to a knee injury before the season and then lost rebounding machine Steven Adams to an ankle injury after he played just 32 games this season--did not have much time to prepare for Durant's absence, but they still should have been able to perform better than they did, particularly on defense. The Lakers torched the Rockets with 40-66 (.606) field goal shooting, led by Luke Kennard's playoff career-high 27 points on 9-13 field goal shooting. The seemingly ageless LeBron James had 19 points, a game-high 13 assists (including a playoff career-high eight first quarter assists), and eight rebounds. Deandre Ayton added 19 points and a team-high 11 rebounds as all five Laker starters scored in double figures.
Alperun Segun led the Rockets with 19 points, but he shot just 6-19 from the field and was outplayed by Ayton. Houston's starters shot 26-75 (.347) from the field, including 9-28 (.321) from beyond the arc. The Rockets won the rebounding battle 44-35, including 21-3 on the offensive glass as they hustled to chase down their misses only to often miss again. Durant's status for game two is questionable, but with or without him the Rockets are capable of playing much better than they did in game one. Keep in mind that the Lakers have homecourt advantage in this series, which means that if the Rockets win game two then the Rockets are in control of the series even though the score would be tied 1-1; the Rockets would have an opportunity to take a 3-1 lead with home wins in games three and four.
In the first game on Sunday, the Boston Celtics destroyed the Philadelphia 76ers, 123-91. The Celtics led 33-18 after the first quarter and never looked back. Jaylen Brown scored a game-high 26 points on 11-21 field goal shooting, and Jayson Tatum had a brilliant all-around game: 25 points on 9-17 field goal shooting, game-high 11 rebounds, team-high seven assists. Tyrese Maxey led the 76ers with 21 points on 8-20 field goal shooting, and he passed for a game-high eight assists. Those numbers are solid--and better than the numbers posted by any of his teammates--but they are not quite enough for the number one option on a playoff team. Paul George was quiet (17 points, four rebounds, one assist) and VJ Edgecomb had just 13 points on 6-16 field goal shooting. The Celtics shot 45-90 (.500) from the field while holding the 76ers to 35-90 (.389) field goal shooting. I may have been generous in suggesting that the 76ers could avoid being swept.
The next game was even less competitive, as the defending NBA champion Oklahoma City Thunder eclipsed the defenseless Phoenix Suns, 119-84. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander shot just 5-18 from the field but he went 15-17 from the free throw line to accumulate a game-high 25 points in just 29 minutes. He also had a game-high seven assists plus four rebounds and two blocked shots. Jalen Williams added 22 points, seven rebounds, and six assists. Devin Booker led the Suns with 23 points on 8-17 field goal shooting, but Dillon Brooks shot just 6-22 from the field for 18 points, and Jalen Green scored 17 points on 6-16 field goal shooting. The Thunder led by 39 at one point, and this game was a "name your score" contest: the Thunder could have won by 50 or 60 if they wanted to do that, but a 35 point margin of victory with each starter playing less than 30 minutes was more than sufficient.
Sunday's third game was a stunner, as the inconsistent and offensively challenged Orlando Magic--who shot just 33-81 (.407) from the field in a 109-97 Play-In Tournament game loss to the Philadelphia 76ers last week--never trailed versus the Detroit Pistons en route to a 112-101 win. The 45-37 Magic shot a respectable 44-90 (.489) from the field while holding the East-leading 60-22 Pistons to 31-77 (.403) field goal shooting. Paolo Banchero scored a team-high 23 points, grabbed a game-high nine rebounds, and dished for four assists, including some very slick passes out of double teams/traps. The other four Magic starters each scored between 16 and 19 points. Cade Cunningham poured in a game-high 39 points on 13-27 field goal shooting, but his inefficient start--14 first half points on 5-12 field goal shooting--helped the Magic to build a 55-51 halftime lead.
This was Detroit's 11th straight playoff game loss at home; the Pistons have not won a home playoff game since 2008. Is this the curse of Rodney Stuckey? I say that with tongue planted firmly in cheek, but the reality is that the Pistons have not been the same since Joe Dumars handed the keys to Stuckey. This is a new, young Pistons team that is years removed from the Stuckey fiasco, but the Pistons better hope that game one was simply a matter of rust and not a symptom of a deeper issue. The Pistons pride themselves on defense and physicality, but the Magic strolled into Detroit and took the Pistons' lunch money like a schoolyard bully.
The Sunday quadrupleheader concluded with Victor Wembanyama's much anticipated playoff debut, and he did not disappoint a San Antonio sellout crowd of 19,372 that included Hall of Famers David Robinson and Tim Duncan. The San Antonio Spurs defeated the Portland Trail Blazers 111-98 as Wembanyama scored a game-high 35 points on 13-21 field goal shooting to break Duncan's team record for most points scored in a playoff game debut (32). Wembanyama had five rebounds as the Spurs used a collective effort on the boards to outrebound the Trail Blazers, 45-38. No Spur had more than seven rebounds, but six Spurs had at least five rebounds. De'Aaron Fox and Stephon Castle contributed 17 points each, while Devin Vassell added 15 points. Deni Avdija had a team-high 30 points, a game-high 10 rebounds, and five assists in his playoff debut, but his Portland teammates did provide nearly enough help, scoring just 68 points on 27-70 (.386) field goal shooting. The Spurs looked like a championship contender, while the Trail Blazers looked outmatched.
Labels: Atlanta Hawks, Boston Celtics, Denver Nuggets, Detroit Pistons, Houston Rockets, L.A. Lakers, Minnesota Timberwolves, New York Knicks, Oklahoma City Thunder, Orlando Magic, Philadelphia 76ers, Phoenix Suns, San Antonio Spurs
posted by David Friedman @ 3:34 PM
76ers Make Magic Disappear, Chef Curry Cooks Clippers
The opener on the second night of NBA Play-In Tournament action featured two Eastern Conference teams that both did not meet expectations this season battling to secure the seventh seed. The shorthanded Philadelphia 76ers outlasted the offensively challenged Orlando Magic, 109-97. Tyrese Maxey led the 76ers with 31 points and six assists. Kelly Oubre Jr. added 19 points while shooting 5-10 from three point range, significant perimeter production considering that the Magic shot just 7-27 (.259) from beyond the arc. VJ Edgecombe contributed 19 points plus a game-high tying 11 rebounds as the 76ers held their own on the glass (only losing the rebound battle 41-40) despite being without the services of Joel Embiid, who is recovering from an appendectomy. Andre Drummond filled part of the void in the middle with 14 points, 10 rebounds, and a team-high tying three blocked shots off of the bench. Paul George had 16 points on 6-16 field goal shooting along with five rebounds and five assists.
Desmond Bane scored a game-high 34 points on 10-16 field goal shooting, but he did not have much help. Paolo Banchero, who is supposed to be Orlando's franchise player, scored 18 points on 7-22 field goal shooting while committing a game-high six turnovers. Anthony Black had a solid game off of the bench (13 points on 4-8 field goal shooting), but Franz Wagner did not do nearly enough (12 points on 5-11 field goal shooting), and Jalen Suggs (four points on 1-9 field goal shooting) misfired from all angles. It felt like anyone sitting courtside should wear a safety helmet to protect against Orlando's barrage of wildly missed shots, as the Magic shot 33-81 (.407) from the field. The first quarter set the tone for the entire game, with the 76ers
leading 28-24 after the first 12 minutes despite shooting just 10-25
(.400) from the field; the Magic shot 9-24 (.375) from the field. If you watched the game, you know that the quality of play did not improve--and if you did not watch the game you are probably not yearning for a detailed account of all of the missed shots. In TV parlance, if this were part of a highlight package it would be "score only."
Who would be silly enough to pick this lethargic, flawed Magic team to win a road game versus the 76ers? Oh, that would be me. In my defense, it's not like the 76ers are particularly impressive; they did not build a double digit lead against the Orlando Magical Bricklayers until the third quarter, so it will be interesting to see how the 76ers fare in a first round matchup versus the surprisingly good Boston Celtics. Meanwhile, the Magic have one last chance to make the playoffs if they beat Charlotte on Friday, but the Magic are not likely to find much success when confronted by Charlotte's size, stingy defense, and three point shooting. I still feel good about picking Charlotte to capture the eighth seed.
In the nightcap, Stephen Curry turned into the superhero known as Chef Curry and he cooked the L.A. Clippers with a game-high 35 points as his Golden State Warriors rallied from a 13 point fourth quarter deficit to post a 126-121 win. The Clippers, who started the season 6-21 before rallying to qualify for the Play-In Tournament, are now eliminated from playoff contention, while the Warriors must beat the Phoenix Suns on Friday night to claim the Western Conference's eighth seed. Kristaps Porzingis and Gui Santos scored 20 points each for the Warriors. Bennedict Mathurin led the Clippers with 23 points.
The Clippers jumped out to a 12-2 lead versus the Warriors, the only Play-In Tournament team with a losing record this season. The Warriors had lost nine games in a row to the Clippers in L.A. and seemed to be well on their way to a 10th setback--but then they authored their own 12-2 run to tie the score at 14 and that set the tone for the rest of the game: the Clippers repeatedly built double digit leads to seemingly take command before collapsing and letting the Warriors back in the game. The collapses largely correlated with Kawhi Leonard not being in the game: Leonard, who finished with 21 points on 8-17 field goal shooting, was the only Clippers' starter with a positive plus/minus number (+6); every other Clippers' starter had a plus/minus number of -7 or worse. The first half ended with Leonard driving coast to coast through Golden
State's entire team as if they were a bunch of elementary school kids,
culminating in a two-handed dunk, after which Leonard shook his head as
if to say, "You've to be kidding me if you think that is enough to even
slow me down." The Clippers led 61-53 at halftime.
Curry put on a vintage show in the third quarter, erupting for 16 points on 6-8 field goal shooting to single-handedly keep the Warriors in the game, but after Mathurin's two free throws pushed the Clippers' lead to 98-85 at the 9:53 mark of the fourth quarter the Warriors seemed to be running out of time and energy until Curry saved the day, along with timely 4-4 three point shooting from Al Horford and suffocating defense on Leonard by Draymond Green. Curry scored 11 fourth quarter points on 4-6 field goal shooting while posting a +15 plus/minus number in the final stanza, and the 39 year old Horford scored 12 of his 14 points in the fourth quarter. Green authored his typical "triple single" (seven points, team-high nine assists, six rebounds), had a 0 plus/minus number, and did not score in the fourth quarter, but he stole the ball from Leonard twice in the closing moments, and played a major role in holding Leonard scoreless in the fourth quarter until Leonard had a meaningless dunk with 16.9 seconds remaining.
L.A. coach Ty Lue was disgusted after the game (though he used a different phrase when asked to describe his feelings), lamenting "We had the game in our hands" but gave it away by making numerous "silly plays." Not surprisingly, Golden State coach Steve Kerr was thrilled with the result, and he thanked NBA Commissioner Adam Silver for creating the Play-In Tournament, noting that otherwise the Warriors' season would already be over--and that raises an interesting point, albeit not the point that Kerr wanted to make: over the course of the 82 game regular season, the Clippers won five more games than the Warriors, but because Curry and Horford got hot in the fourth quarter of one game the Clippers are eliminated while the Warriors have a chance to make the playoffs. Phoenix finished eight games ahead of Golden State during the regular season, but the Warriors can wipe out months of work by beating the Suns just once.
This format may work out great for Kerr, his team, and his team's fans this season, but the message that this sends is that the regular season does not matter--and this message, conveyed by the league office, team executives, and the players themselves in many ways during recent years, is how we have ended up with tanking, load management, and a league whose regular season is becoming increasingly unwatchable. Instead of the NBA having a great regular season, the NBA produces a mediocre regular season and hopes that some excitement in the Play-In Tournament and the playoffs will be enough to satisfy the fans who pay high ticket prices and streaming fees.
Labels: Desmond Bane, Draymond Green, Golden State Warriors, Kawhi Leonard, L.A. Clippers, Orlando Magic, Paolo Banchero, Philadelphia 76ers, Stephen Curry, Tyrese Maxey
posted by David Friedman @ 10:44 AM
The 2026 NBA Play-In Tournament, Featuring the Worst of the Non-Tankers
The 2025-26 season will long be remembered for the NBA de facto becoming two leagues: a 20 team league in which teams competed to qualify for the playoffs or at least for the Play-In Tournament, and a 10 team league in which teams competed to lose as many games as possible. The standings reflect this sharp divide; instead of wins and losses being distributed relatively evenly, the 10th seeded team in the Eastern Conference finished 11 games ahead of the 11th seeded team, and the 10th seeded team in the Western Conference also finished 11 games ahead of the 11th seeded team. The 10th seeded team in each conference qualifies for the NBA Play-In Tournament, while the teams finishing below 10th head straight to the NBA Draft Lottery. Last season, the Eastern Conference's 10th seeded team finished seven games ahead of the 11th seeded team, and the Western Conference's 10th seeded team finished just three games ahead of the 11th seeded team. During the 2023-24 season, the margins were four games and five games respectively, and in 2022-23 the margins were five games and two games respectively. In 1995-96, when the Chicago Bulls won a then-record 72 regular season games and eight teams from each conference qualified for the playoffs without an NBA Play-In Tournament, the margins between eighth place and ninth place in each conference were one game and three games respectively.
In short, to the extent that tanking existed historically it was much more limited in scope than it was this season: fewer teams tanked, and they did so for a smaller portion of the season. NBA fans can thank "stat gurus"--who act like they have figured out the mathematical solution to every problem--and NBA Commissioner Adam Silver for the "tank-tacular" NBA, a league that charges full ticket prices and hefty streaming fees for the "privilege" of watching a third of the teams race to the bottom. Have any of the "stat gurus" noticed that many of the same teams are tanking each year, which would suggest to a sensible person that tanking is not the optimal way to build a winning team?
Most of the 2026 Play-In Tournament teams are not as good or as intriguing as the NBA's media partners assert, but four of these teams--two from the Eastern Conference and two from the Western Conference--will survive to participate in the NBA playoffs, which begin on April 18.
Last season, five of the eight Play-In Tournament teams had losing records. Not surprisingly, when movable forces face resistible objects the result is not scintillating basketball; the 2025 NBA Play-In Tournament began with the 41-41 Orlando Magic eviscerating the 40-42 Atlanta Hawks, 120-95. This season, rampant tanking in the bottom third of the standings enabled seven of the eight Play-In Tournament teams to avoid having losing records.
The
2026 NBA Play-In Tournament starts tomorrow night with the 44-38 Charlotte Hornets hosting the 43-39 Miami Heat. ESPN's Charles Barkley has been calling the Hornets "The Dream Team" for months, and he was only half-joking: after starting the season 6-16, the Hornets went 38-22 the rest of the way, including a nine game winning streak featuring wins over San Antonio and Houston. The Hornets ranked first in three point field goals made as Kon Knueppel set the single season rookie record and the Charlotte franchise record for three point field goals made, and his league-leading 273 were just one more than his teammate LaMelo Ball's 272. The Hornets ranked third in three point field goal percentage (.378) but they are not as adept at making other shots, ranking 25th in overall field goal percentage (.460) and 13th in scoring (116.0 ppg). They finished fifth in rebounding, seventh in points allowed, and 11th in defensive field goal percentage. Brandon Miller (20.2 ppg), Ball (20.1 ppg), and Knueppel (18.5 ppg) lead a balanced scoring attack. The Hornets have not made the playoffs since 2016, and their top nine players have combined to participate in zero career playoff games.
The Heat boast about their "culture" and their championship aspirations, but they have not advanced past the first round of the playoffs since 2023. They used to be known for being a slow tempo team that played tough defense, but this season they ranked second in scoring and 22nd in points allowed. The Heat scored at least 135 points in 15 games, and they won 14 of those contests. First-time All-Star Norm Powell led the team in scoring (21.7 ppg) but he played in just 58 games. Tyler Herro averaged 20.5 ppg in 33 games. Bam Adebayo averaged 20.1 ppg, the second highest mark in his career--boosted by his 83 point outburst versus the defenseless, tanking Washington "Wheeze-hards." The Heat have been the unofficial kings of the Play-In Tournament: in 2025, they became the first 10th seeded team to qualify for the playoffs, and in 2023 they emerged from the Play-Tournament to make an improbable run to the NBA Finals before losing to the Denver Nuggets.
The Heat won the first two matchups with the Hornets before getting smoked 136-106 on March 17. Adebayo missed that game due to right calf tightness. I expect the Hornets' defense and three point shooting to cause problems for the Heat, so I am picking the Hornets to beat the Heat. The loser of that game will be eliminated from playoff contention, while the winner will face the loser of Wednesday night's Philadelphia-Orlando game to earn the Eastern Conference's eighth seed.
In Tuesday's nightcap, the 45-37 Phoenix Suns host the 42-20 Portland Trail Blazers. The Suns seemed to be rebuilding after trading Kevin Durant to Houston in a seven team deal last summer, but instead they won nine more games sans Durant this season than they won with him in 2024-25. The Suns' top players missed a lot of games in both seasons, so health does not explain the improvement. Not surprisingly, the Suns are worse offensively without Durant, ranking 26th in scoring and 28th in field goal percentage this season after ranking 18th and 11th respectively in those categories last season. The difference is on defense, where the Suns improved from 22nd in points allowed to sixth while also inching up from 21st to 15th in defensive field goal percentage. Devin Booker led the Suns in scoring (26.1 ppg) and assists (6.0 apg), while two of the players acquired in the Durant deal have been major contributors: Dillon Brooks averaged a career-high 20.2 ppg and Jalen Green chipped in 17.8 ppg.
The Portland Trail Blazers have not made the playoffs since 2021 and have not advanced past the first round since their fluky 2019 run to the Western Conference Finals, but Deni Avdija's emergence as a first-time All-Star helped this young team improve just enough to at least contend for postseason play. Avdija led the team in scoring (career-high 24.2 ppg) and assists (career-high 6.7 apg) while also averaging 6.9 rpg. Shaedon Sharpe contributed a career-high 20.8 ppg, while Jerami Grant bounced back from an awful 2024-25 season (14.4 ppg on .373 field goal shooting) to score 18.6 ppg on solid .453 field goal shooting. First year head coach Tiago Splitter did an admirable job replacing Chauncey Billups at the last minute after Billups was placed on leave by the NBA because of his alleged role in a two-pronged illegal gambling scandal. As is often the case with teams that finish around .500, the Trail Blazers have mediocre rankings in many statistical categories, but they finished sixth in rebounding and seventh in blocked shots, numbers that hint at their youth and athleticism.
The Suns won the first two head to head matchups in high scoring games at Portland, and then the Trail Blazers won 92-77 at Phoenix. Booker and Brooks did not play in that game, and Avdija played less than a minute, so that contest does not say much about these teams at full strength. I expect Avdija to have a great all-around game, but Booker and Brooks will each score 25-plus points in a Phoenix win. The winner of that game will earn the Western Conference's seventh seed, while the loser will face the winner of Wednesday night's L.A. Clippers-Golden State game to claim the Western Conference's eighth seed.
On Wednesday night, the 45-37 Philadelphia 76ers will host the 45-37 Orlando Magic. The tanking teams should stop hiring "stat gurus" and instead take a graduate course on "The Process": after the 76ers reached the second round of the playoffs in 2012, and then missed the playoffs by four games in 2013, the 76ers hired Sam Hinkie as their general manager and embarked on a four year tanking program. As a result, the 76ers chose Joel Embiid with the third overall pick in the 2014 NBA Draft. Embiid missed his first two seasons due to injury, but in the next nine seasons he failed to advance past the second round--and he is currently sidelined after appendicitis surgery. Since "stat gurus" claim to love numbers, let the record show that the 76ers lost on purpose for four years--and a decade later all of that intentional losing has yet to produce a better playoff team than their 2012 squad. I realize that some "stat gurus" are as slow as they are stubborn, but objectively the numbers prove that tanking does not work.
First-time All-Star Tyrese Maxey had a breakout season, leading the 76ers with a career-high 28.3 ppg. He does not shrink in the playoffs like Embiid does, but he also has not proven that he can carry a team very far. Rookie VJ Edgecombe averaged 16.0 ppg, and he is the only one of the 76ers' top five scorers who played in at least 75 games. Injuries and a 25 game suspension for using performance-enhancing drugs limited Paul George to just 37 games, during which he averaged 17.3 ppg. Insert joke about the drugs not actually enhancing George's play very much--and his playoff resume is nothing to write home about.
The Magic were considered to be a team on the rise after going 47-35 in 2023-24, but something has just not clicked since then. Injuries have not helped, but even when this team is at or near full strength it does not strike fear into the hearts of legit contenders. All they had to do to host Philadelphia in the Play-In Tournament was beat a Boston team that rested its key players in the last regular season game, but instead the Magic fell flat on their faces. Paolo Banchero made the All-Star team in his second season (2024) and has not been back since. He led the Magic in scoring (22.2 ppg) and rebounding (8.4 ppg), but the initial thought/hope that he could develop into a franchise player now seems to be unrealistic. Offseason acquisition Desmond Bane did his part, averaging 20.1 ppg while being one of just 18 NBA players who participated in all 82 games.
With the 76ers at home and the Magic floundering around, it is tempting to pick Philadelphia, but the 76ers are 24-14 with Embiid this season, and 21-23 without him; in other words, new year but same old story: with Embiid, the 76ers are a 50 win regular season team that is just good enough to lose early in the playoffs, and without Embiid the 76ers are not good at all. If the 76ers were completely healthy, I would not pick them to advance past the second round this season, and in their current state I expect even the enigmatic Orlando Magic to beat them.
Wednesday's action will conclude with the 42-40 L.A. Clippers hosting the 37-45 Golden State Warriors. The Clippers started the season 6-16 before cutting ties with Chris Paul. They soon went on a six game winning streak, and their 11-4 January record lifted them above the tanking teams and into fringe playoff contention. The Clippers did some more addition by subtraction in early February by jettisoning 36 year old James Harden in exchange for 26 year old Darius Garland. This is just the second season since 2017 that Kawhi Leonard played in at least 65 games; he conveniently landed exactly on the number that keeps him eligible for postseason award consideration, and he will likely make one of the All-NBA Teams after averaging a career-high 27.9 ppg with shooting splits of .505/.387/.892. Garland has been a dependable second scoring option, averaging 19.9 ppg in 19 games with the Clippers.
After Jimmy Butler played just 38 games before suffering a season-ending knee injury, and injuries limited Stephen Curry to 43 games, future Hall of Famer Draymond Green picked up the slack--and led Golden State to the last Play-In Tournament slot after Dallas, New Orleans, Memphis, Utah, and Sacramento decided to abandon even the pretense of trying to win. We have seen this Draymond Green experience before: in 2019-20 with Curry and Klay Thompson sidelined by injuries, Green led the Warriors to a 15-50 record. Green's fans describe him as essential member of four Golden State championship teams, but a credible argument could be made that his flagrant fouls, suspensions, and negative impact on team chemistry cost the Warriors almost as many championships as he helped them win--and the word "helped" is used advisedly: as the third and sometimes fourth best player on championship teams, Green was not as dominant as Dennis Rodman--a lock down defender and seven-time rebounding champion--nor was he as clutch as Robert Horry.
This season, the Warriors were 24-19 with Curry, and 13-26 without him, with Green along for the ride in either scenario. The Warriors ranked 14th in points allowed, 22nd in scoring, 23rd in defensive field goal percentage, 24th in field goal percentage, and 25th in rebounding; some of those numbers are skewed a bit by Curry's extended absences, but the reality is that the Warriors are what their record says they are: not very good. The Clippers are not the second coming of the 1996 Chicago Bulls, but with Leonard scoring an efficient 30 points and Garland adding 25 points the Clippers will put the Warriors out of their misery.
In Friday's Play-In Tournament games, I expect Charlotte to beat Philadelphia and L.A. to defeat Portland. As noted above, Charlotte is inexperienced but the Hornets are stout defensively, while the 76ers are the predictable product of years of tanking. The Clippers sans Harden and Paul will complete their rise from the basement to the penthouse (or at least the eighth seed in the Western Conference playoffs).
Thus, if
my predictions are correct, the Orlando Magic and Phoenix Suns will claim the
seventh seeds in their respective conferences, and the eighth seeded
teams will be the Charlotte Hornets and the L.A. Clippers.
Watching a third of the NBA tank into oblivion this season was not enjoyable, and even finding the games may be challenging for the casual fan, so it should be noted that all of the 2026 NBA Play-In Tournament games are being shown exclusively on Amazon Prime.
The Play-In Tournament has yet to cure tanking or provide consistently high quality basketball, but maybe we will be fortunate to have at least a few entertaining games as appetizers before the playoffs begin.
Previous Play-In Tournament Articles:
2025
Heat Bludgeon Bulls and Mavericks Topple Kings to Stay Alive in the NBA Play-In Tournament (April 17, 2025)
Magic Rout Hawks and Warriors Edge Grizzlies to Clinch Playoff Berths (April 16, 2025)
Thoughts and Predictions About the 2025 NBA Play-In Tournament (April 14, 2025)
2024
76ers Cool off Heat to Clinch East's Seventh Seed, Heat Will Host Bulls to Determine East's Eighth Seed (April 18, 2024)
Lakers Clinch West's Seventh Seed, Pelicans Will Host Kings to Determine West's Eighth Seed (April 17, 2024)
The NBA Play-In Tournament Gives Mediocre Teams an Opportunity to Salvage Their Disappointing Seasons (April 15, 2024)
2023
Zion Williamson's Refusal to Play Despite Being Healthy Embodies What is Wrong With Today's NBA (April 13, 2023)
L.A. Lakers Need Overtime to Dispatch Shorthanded Minnesota Timberwolves in Play-In Tournament (April 12, 2023)
The 2023 NBA Play-In Tournament: Grab Your Popcorn and Savor the Mediocrity! (April 10, 2023)
2022
Notes on the 2022 NBA Play-In Tournament (April 14, 2022)
Nets Clinch Seventh Seed After Outlasting Cavaliers, 115-108 (April 12, 2022)
The NBA is (Usually) Fantastic (Except When Teams Bench Their Starters for the Season's Last Game) (April 11, 2022)
2021
Nine Versus Ten Does Not Add Up to Fantastic Basketball (May 20, 2021)
Thoughts on the NBA's Play-In Tournament (May 17, 2021)
Labels: Charlotte Hornets, Golden State Warriors, L.A. Clippers, Miami Heat, Orlando Magic, Philadelphia 76ers, Phoenix Suns, Play-In Tournament, Portland Trail Blazers
posted by David Friedman @ 11:26 PM
Knicks Make Magic Disappear and Spurs Silence Thunder in NBA Cup Semifinals
The New York Knicks defeated the Orlando Magic 132-120 to reach the NBA Cup Championship Game, which will be played next Tuesday night in Las Vegas. Jalen Brunson authored yet another virtuoso performance, scoring a game-high 40 points on 16-27 field goal shooting while also dishing for a game-high eight assists and committing just two turnovers in 39 minutes. Brunson has now scored at least 30 points in 88 regular season games as a Knick, surpassing Hall of Fame guard Richie Guerin for third place in franchise history. Carmelo Anthony's second place total (108) is well within reach, but it will take Brunson a while to top Patrick Ewing (203). Karl-Anthony Towns (29 points on 9-11 field goal shooting, eight rebounds) and OG Anunoby (24 points, six rebounds, four assists, three steals) also had strong games as all five New York starters scored in double figures. Former New York coach Tom Thibodeau was criticized for allegedly playing his starters for too many minutes, but in this game--with NBA Cup bonus money on the line--current New York coach Mike Brown played four of New York's five starters at least 37 minutes, while the banged up Josh Hart battled through 31 minutes. Mitchell Robinson only scored five points, but he was a force in the
paint, compiling a game-high nine rebounds and a game-high four blocked
shots in just 17 minutes off of the bench.
Jalen Suggs led the Magic with 26 points on 10-16 field goal shooting, but he had 25 of those points in the first half before injuring his left hip in the third quarter. He limped through nine scoreless third quarter minutes and scored just one point in a cameo appearance in the fourth quarter before the Magic shut him down. Suggs, who had a team-high +8 plus/minus number, will be reevaluated after the Magic return to Orlando from Las Vegas. Paolo Banchero added 25 points and eight rebounds, but he shot 0-7 from three point range and he committed a game-high five turnovers; that is a lot of empty possessions created by the team's best player. Banchero is a strong and talented player who should must improve his decision making in general and his shot selection in particular. Desmond Bane scored a game-high 37 points when Orlando beat Miami 117-108 in an NBA Cup quarterfinal game, but he had just 18 points on 7-17 field goal shooting versus the Knicks.
This game was physical and well-contested but also very fast-paced, which resulted in the high scoring totals for both teams. Each team had 41 rebounds, but the Knicks shot .607 (51-84) from the field while holding the Magic to .464 (45-97) field goal shooting. The Magic led by as much as six in the first quarter, but the Knicks rallied to take a 71-64 halftime edge. The third quarter featured two lead changes and four ties, but the Knicks did not trail in the fourth quarter.
The Magic have a faster paced, more efficient offense than they did last
season, but the goal is not to lose while scoring 120 points; the Magic
pride themselves on their defense, so this performance is very
disappointing, and below their usual standard. Perhaps the Magic would
have fared better if the injured Franz Wagner had been able to play
and if Suggs had not gotten injured during the game, but defense is
about effort and execution, not just personnel. If the Magic are at full strength during the playoffs, a New York-Orlando playoff series could be very competitive and interesting.
In the second game of Amazon Prime's NBA Cup semifinals doubleheader, the San Antonio Spurs rallied from a 16 point second quarter deficit to stun the Oklahoma City Thunder 111-109, ending the Thunder's 16 game winning streak and handing the 2025 NBA champions just their second loss this season. Victor Wembanyama dominated the game despite a minutes restriction that limited him to 21 minutes off of the bench. He scored 22 points on 6-11 field goal shooting and 9-12 free throw shooting while grabbing a game-high tying nine rebounds, notching a game-high two blocked shots, and posting a gaudy team-high +21 plus/minus number. This was his first game back after missing the last 12 games because of a left calf injury. The Spurs went 9-3 without Wembanyama, but in this game they looked vastly superior with him on the court compared to when he was not on the court. Devin Vassell scored a team-high 23 points while collecting five rebounds and four assists, while De'Aaron Fox and Stephon Castle scored 22 points each.
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander scored a game-high 29 points on 12-23 field goal shooting, but his teammates managed to produce just 80 points on 26-69 (.377) field goal shooting as the Thunder's vaunted strength in numbers vanished. The Spurs forced Gilgeous-Alexander to play in a crowd, and they denied him access to his favorite midrange areas. He responded by willingly making the right passes, but his teammates did not make enough shots. Jalen Williams (17 points on 5-16 field goal shooting) and Chet Holmgren (17 points on 3-8 field goal shooting) both had subpar games. Isaiah Hartenstein was solid (10 points on 5-9 field goal shooting, game-high tying nine rebounds), but the Thunder player who performed the best other than Gilgeous-Alexander was Alex Caruso, who had 11 points, eight rebounds, three assists, three steals, and no turnovers in 24 minutes off of the bench. Caruso had a game-high +22 plus/minus number, including +6 in a tightly contested fourth quarter.
The Spurs won the rebounding battle 52-51, and they only lost points in the paint 44-40. In a game where the outcome hung in the balance until the final buzzer sounded, the best thing that the Spurs did was remain composed through both the highs and the lows; the Thunder attack their opponents in aggressive waves of relentless pressure defense leading to high percentage shots, but the Spurs weathered each storm after a bumpy first quarter. The Thunder do not have many weaknesses or vulnerabilities, but the best
recipe to beat them involves (1) controlling the pace, (2) limiting
turnovers, and (3) attacking the paint. Controlling the pace does not necessarily mean only playing fast or only playing slow, but rather not letting the Thunder speed you up to force turnovers and bad shots; the Spurs did a great job of pushing the ball when they had an advantage in numbers and running a half court offense when they did not have an advantage in numbers.
When the Thunder led 14-4 at the 8:18 mark of the first quarter, it seemed like this would be yet another double digit Thunder win with Gilgeous-Alexander watching the fourth quarter relaxing on the bench. The Spurs stabilized themselves for the rest of the first quarter, and even though they did not cut into the margin they also did not plummet into a 20 point deficit. The Thunder led 31-20 heading into the second quarter. Wembanyama did not play at all in the first quarter, and it soon became evident just how significant his absence was; he had five points and five rebounds in seven minutes in the second quarter, but his +20 plus/minus number just hinted at his impact at both ends of the court. The Spurs trimmed the lead to 33-29 at the 8:35 mark with Wembanyama in the game, but after he took a break the Thunder surged to a 47-31 lead with 3:52 left before Wembanyama returned. The Spurs closed the second quarter with a 15-2 run with Wembanyama seemingly everywhere at once at both ends of the court as he altered shots on defense and forced the Thunder to account for his presence on offense.
The Spurs took their first lead of the game, 57-56, on a Fox fast break drive at the 8:45 mark of the third quarter. Neither team led by more than six points the rest of the way. One might expect that a championship team would have the advantage in a nip and tuck game versus a young and inexperienced team, but that was not the case in this game. Wembanyama's jump shot with 2:32 remaining in the fourth quarter put the Spurs up 102-101, and they never trailed again; down the stretch, the Spurs played excellent defense and they made enough free throws to hold off the Thunder.
In my December
3 NBA Cup article, I correctly picked each of the four quarterfinal
game winners before picking Orlando and Oklahoma City as semifinal game
winners; since I was wrong about both semifinal game winners it is time for me to make a new prediction about the NBA Cup Championship Game.
It does not make much sense to call Knicks versus Spurs a rematch of the 1999 NBA Finals because many of the participants in the upcoming 2025 NBA Cup Championship Game were not even born yet in 1999. More relevant is that the Knicks reached the 2025 Eastern Conference Finals while the Spurs missed the playoffs; the Knicks began this season with championship aspirations while the Spurs entered this season intent on proving that they can be the first San Antonio team to qualify for postseason play since 2019. Both teams are 18-7 now, and both teams are on the upswing, with the Knicks 9-1 in their last 10 games and the Spurs 7-3 in their last 10 games (nine of which they played without Wembanyama).
The matchups are fascinating. Will the Knicks try to muscle Wembanyama, or will they try to harass him by swarming him with pesky small defenders? How will the Spurs try to exploit Brunson's subpar defense, and how will the Knicks try to hide Brunson on that side of the court? The coaches who will make those decisions are Mitch Johnson, who is in his first full season at the helm in San Antonio, and Mike Brown, who led the Cleveland Cavaliers to the 2007 NBA Finals and has won four NBA titles as an assistant coach, including one with the Spurs (2003) and three with the Golden State Warriors (2017-18, 2022). Johnson's father John was the starting small forward for Seattle's 1979 NBA championship team. Brown has the edge on paper by virtue of his long resume full of NBA championships and NBA Finals appearances, but Johnson has shown a lot of promise in his short time on the job while presiding over the development of not only Wembanyama but also other young players on the roster.
If this were a seven game series, I would pick the Knicks, much like I would have picked them over the Magic in a series but thought that the Magic would prevail in a one game winner take all scenario (never mind that I ended up being wrong about that!). Wembanyama has not proven that he can stay healthy for a whole season, let alone dominate during an extended playoff run--but he has shown that in just 21 minutes he can be a force even against the dominant Oklahoma City Thunder, so I will pick the Spurs to win a game that I expect (and hope) will be as closely contested and well-played as their victory over the Thunder.
Labels: Jalen Brunson, Jalen Suggs, Karl-Anthony Towns, New York Knicks, Oklahoma City Thunder, Orlando Magic, San Antonio Spurs, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Victor Wembanyama
posted by David Friedman @ 2:49 AM
New York and Orlando Advance to the NBA Cup Semifinals
The Orlando Magic defeated the Miami Heat 117-108 in the first of the 2025 NBA Cup quarterfinals games. Last year, the Magic lost to the Milwaukee Bucks in the NBA Cup quarterfinals, but this year their offseason addition of Desmond Bane paid big dividends as he erupted for a game-high 37 points on 14-24 field goal shooting, including 6-9 from three point range for a team that ranked 30th (last) in the league in three point field goal percentage last season. Jalen Suggs contributed 20 points, four assists, and two steals, Paolo Banchero added 18 points, seven rebounds, and four assists, and Wendell Carter Jr. had 14 points plus a game-high 10 rebounds. The Magic won the rebounding battle 47-39 and they outscored the Heat in the paint 60-52. Norman Powell led a balanced Heat offense with 21 points on 8-19 field goal shooting, followed closely by Tyler Herro (20 points), Bam Adebeyo (19 points, team-high eight rebounds), and Andrew Wiggins (19 points).
In my December 3 NBA Cup article, I picked Orlando to beat Miami, but that was before the Magic's Franz Wagner suffered a left high ankle sprain that is expected to sideline him for several weeks. Wagner is averaging 22.7 ppg, 6.1 rpg, and 3.7 apg in 24 games this season, and initially the Magic struggled without him as the Heat jumped to a 15-0 lead by the 9:16 mark of the first quarter. The Magic outscored the Heat 17-15 the rest of the way in the first quarter, and then won the second quarter 39-27 to pull to within 57-56 by halftime. The Magic took the lead early in the third quarter before Bane fouled Adebayo on a three point attempt at the 8:53 mark. Adebayo made the first two free throws before missing the third, but Adebayo scooped up the rebound and Powell drained a three pointer a few seconds later to complete the rare five point possession, putting the Heat up, 69-66. Suggs answered with a three pointer to tie the score, and the Magic never trailed again. The Magic waste too many possessions and make too many careless plays to be a championship team, but Bane's 25 second half points proved to be too much for the Heat to overcome.
Even with this loss, the Heat are still one of the NBA's pleasant surprises. They are playing at the fastest pace in franchise history, ranking
third in the league in scoring (122.3 ppg) prior to this game. Jimmy Butler forced his way out of Miami last season and he landed with the Golden State Warriors, but so far this season the Heat have a better record than the Warriors. Butler's video message to Warriors' fans after he joined the team--"Championship coming soon"--is not aging well. Miami coach Erik Spoelstra proved that he can successfully handle the egos on a super team while leading the Heat to NBA titles in 2012 and 2013 with LeBron James, Dwyane Wade, and Chris Bosh forming a "Big Three," and he has also shown that he can maximize the output of a team that does not have even one superstar.
In the second game of Amazon Prime's NBA Cup quarterfinals doubleheader, the New York Knicks beat the Toronto Raptors 117-101. Jalen Brunson poured in a game-high 35 points on 13-19 field goal shooting, including 6-9 from beyond the arc. He had 20 first quarter points on 7-9 field goal shooting to help the Knicks overcome an otherwise slow start. An alleged problem for the Knicks last season was that coach Tom Thiboedeau relied too heavily on his starters, but the formula that carried them to the Eastern Conference Finals for the first time since 2000 also worked in this game for coach Mike Brown: the Knicks' starters scored 98 of the team's 117 points while four of New York's starters played at least 36 minutes each. Josh Hart contributed 21 points, six rebounds, and four assists. Mikal Bridges had 15 points, five rebounds, and four assists, Karl-Anthony Towns added 14 points, a game-high 16 rebounds, and two blocked shots, and OG Anunoby chipped in 13 points plus six rebounds. The Knicks outrebounded the Raptors 48-37, and they shot .525 (42-80) from the field while holding the Raptors to .433 (39-90) field goal shooting. Brandon Ingram led the Raptors with 31 points on 11-18 field goal shooting while also grabbing six rebounds and dishing six assists. Jamal Shead made his first start of the season in place of the injured Immanuel Quickley, and he scored 18 points while passing for a game-high eight assists. Scottie Barnes scored just 13 points on 6-18 field goal shooting, tying his second lowest point total of the season.
This game played out the way that I expected; in my aforementioned December 3 NBA cup article, I picked New York to beat Toronto by double digits, noting that Toronto "feasted on a weak schedule loaded with sub-.500 teams, and they lost to the Knicks 116-94 on November 30." The Raptors gave their fans some early (and false) hope by taking a 17-11 first quarter lead and they were still up 39-35 at the end of the first quarter--but the Knicks blitzed the Raptors 34-13 in the second quarter, shooting .583 (14-24) from the field while holding the Raptors to .238 (5-21) field goal shooting. The Raptors outscored the Knicks 49-48 in the second half, but that was not nearly enough to overcome their second quarter collapse.
The Knicks and Magic will play on Saturday December 13 in Las Vegas to earn the right to represent the Eastern Conference in the NBA Cup Championship Game.
Labels: Desmond Bane, Jalen Brunson, Miami Heat, NBA Cup, New York Knicks, Orlando Magic, Toronto Raptors
posted by David Friedman @ 12:51 AM
Thunder Dominate NBA Cup Play--and Everything Else
The Oklahoma City Thunder lost to the Milwaukee Bucks in the 2024 NBA Cup Championship Game, but the Thunder have rolled since then, setting the NBA's single season point differential record (12.9 ppg) while going 68-14 before defeating the Indiana Pacers in the 2025 NBA Finals. The Thunder currently have a league-leading 21-1 record with an incredible 15.3 ppg point differential. Jalen Williams, the Thunder's second best player behind Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, has appeared in just three of the Thunder's 22 games, and other key Thunder players--including Lu Dort, Alex Caruso, and Aaron Wiggins--have missed significant time as well.
The Thunder seem to be well on their way to not only winning 70-plus regular season games but also becoming the first repeat champion since the 2018 Golden State Warriors--but before the NBA playoffs, the basketball gods (also known as NBA Commissioner Adam Silver) have placed the NBA Cup. The Thunder are dominating the NBA Cup even more decisively than they are dominating the regular season overall; they went 4-0 in NBA Cup group play with an 18.8 ppg point differential, finishing first in West Group A to set up a quarterfinal game versus the Phoenix Suns on December 10. The winner of that game will face the winner of the December 10 game featuring the L.A. Lakers and the San Antonio Spurs. The Lakers have the second best overall record in the Western Conference (15-5), followed by the Houston Rockets (13-5), San Antonio Spurs (14-6), and Denver Nuggets (14-6). The Suns are seventh with a 13-9 record.
The Thunder beat the Suns 123-119 on November 28 as Williams made his season debut with 11 points on 3-12 field goal shooting. The Suns have played surprisingly well this season, but Williams has looked better in each game that he has played so far and the Thunder's victory margin has increased in each of those games, so the Thunder should beat the Suns to advance to the semifinals.
Only four of the Lakers' 15 wins are against teams that currently have winning records, so it will be interesting to see how the Lakers fare against tougher competition. The Lakers beat the Spurs 118-116 on November 5, but the Lakers have given up at least 118 points in four of their past five games and I expect the Spurs to win a close, high scoring game to earn a matchup with the Thunder.
The Thunder have yet to play the Spurs this season, but if they play in the semifinals I predict that the Thunder will win by at least 10 points.
In the Eastern Conference, the Orlando Magic and Toronto Raptors each went 4-0 in NBA Cup group play but the Magic earned the top seed because they had a better NBA Cup point differential (+64 compared to +55)--and they achieved that primarily by drilling the Philadelphia 76ers 144-103 on November 25. The Detroit Pistons have the best record (17-4) in the Eastern
Conference and the second best record in the league behind the Thunder, but they went 2-2 in NBA Cup group play and failed to advance to the
quarterfinals. The Cleveland Cavaliers had the Eastern Conference's best
record last season (64-18) but they are just 13-9 this season,
including 2-2 in NBA Cup group play.
The Magic are currently fifth overall in the Eastern Conference with a 13-8 record, and they will face the Miami Heat (14-7 overall, 3-1 in NBA Cup group play) in the NBA Cup quarterfinals on December 9. Orlando beat Miami 125-121 on October 22 in the season opener for both teams. The Magic lost their next four games, but they have won their last three games and six of their last seven; the Heat have also played very well recently, winning seven of their last eight games. I expect Orlando to beat Miami in a close game to advance to the NBA Cup semifinals. The other Eastern Conference quarterfinals matchup features Toronto versus the New York Knicks (13-7 overall, 3-1 in NBA Cup group play). The 15-7 Raptors are one of the league's early season surprises, but they have feasted on a weak schedule loaded with sub-.500 teams, and they lost to the Knicks 116-94 on November 30. I predict that the Knicks will beat the Raptors by double digits.
The Magic have already beaten the Knicks twice this season (124-107 on November 12, and 133-121 on November 22), and if they face each other in the semifinals I expect the Magic to win again.
The Thunder have not played the Magic this season, but if they meet in the NBA Cup Championship Game then I expect the Thunder to win.
The NBA Cup seems to be here to stay, so anyone covering the NBA is obligated to discuss it, but I still consider it to be a flawed concept, and in 2023 I pointed out the NBA Cup's two major drawbacks:
There are at least two drawbacks with the current NBA Cup format: (1)
the use of point differential as the first tiebreaker in Group Play
resulted in farcical situations during which teams ran up the score, and
(2) there will be quirky scheduling this week for the teams that did
not qualify for knockout round play. Regarding the first drawback, I am
all for players and teams playing hard from opening tip to final buzzer,
but intentionally running up the score in the waning moments of a
blowout looks silly and renders those individual and team statistics
meaningless: how many more points would the great teams and players of
the past have scored if teams ran up the score instead of putting in the
reserves? Regarding the second drawback, if a fan wants to see a
particular visiting player or team how is he supposed to plan in advance
for a week in which the schedule is dotted with "TBD"?
The NBA has done nothing to fix either drawback, so we continue to see inflated statistics from blowout games along with a schedule that is frustrating and confounding for fans who are trying to make plans to see specific players or teams.
The long term historical significance of the NBA Cup is unclear, but thus far NBA Cup success has not yet consistently translated to NBA playoff success. The L.A. Lakers defeated the Indiana Pacers in the 2023 NBA Cup Championship Game, but the Lakers finished the season as the eighth seeded team in the Western Conference before losing 4-1 to the Denver Nuggets in the first round. The Pacers had the same record as the Lakers (47-35) but finished sixth in the weaker Eastern Conference and then advanced to the Eastern Conference Finals before being swept by the Boston Celtics, who went on to capture the NBA title. The Milwaukee Bucks finished fifth in the Eastern Conference and lost in the first round of the 2025 playoffs after winning the 2024 NBA Cup. So far, the 2024-25 Thunder are the only NBA Cup Championship Game participant that has reached the NBA Finals.
Labels: L.A. Lakers, Miami Heat, New York Knicks, Oklahoma City Thunder, Orlando Magic, Phoenix Suns, San Antonio Spurs, Toronto Raptors
posted by David Friedman @ 5:03 PM
2025-26 Eastern Conference Preview
Injuries and salary cap considerations will turn the Eastern Conference standings upside down. The Indiana Pacers made it to the Eastern Conference Finals in 2024 and 2025, and they pushed the dominant Oklahoma City Thunder to game seven
of the 2025 NBA Finals before Tyrese Haliburton ruptured his right
Achilles tendon. The Thunder outlasted the Pacers in game seven, and the Pacers will have to survive the 2025-26 season without Haliburton. The Pacers also lost starting center Myles Turner, who signed with the Milwaukee Bucks.
The Boston Celtics won the 2024 NBA championship, advanced to the 2022 NBA Finals before losing to the Golden State Warriors, and reached the Eastern Conference Finals six times in an eight year span (2017-18, 2020, 2022-24), but they are now facing a "gap year" after losing Jayson Tatum to a right Achilles tendon rupture in the second round of the 2025 NBA playoffs. With Tatum out of action, the Celtics decided to cut costs, trading Jrue Holiday to Portland for Anfernee Simons, and shipping Kristaps Porzingis to Atlanta in a three team deal that brought Georges Niang and a 2025 second round pick to Boston. The Celtics also did not re-sign backup center Luke Cornet, and did not retain the services of free agent Al Horford, who was their starting center for the better part of the past four seasons before signing with Golden State just prior to the start of the 2025-26 season.
With Indiana and Boston out of the championship contention picture, the path is wide open for the New York Knicks and Cleveland Cavaliers to battle for Eastern Conference supremacy, while the young Detroit Pistons and Orlando Magic look to build on the potential that they demonstrated last season, and the retooled Milwaukee Bucks seek to vault back to contender status after falling short since winning the 2021 NBA title.
Despite reaching the Eastern Conference Finals for the first time since 2000, the New York Knicks fired Coach Tom Thibodeau and replaced him with two-time NBA Coach of the Year (2009 with Cleveland, 2023 with Sacramento) Mike Brown. Brown's .599 regular season career winning percentage ranks 10th all-time among coaches with at least 400 regular season wins, and his .556 playoff career winning percentage ranks 15th all-time among coaches with at least 40 playoff wins. Thibodeau's career winning percentages are .579 and .466 respectively. Neither Brown nor Thibodeau has won a championship as a head coach, and both have won at least one championship as an assistant coach (four for Brown, one for Thibodeau). Last season, the Knicks ranked ninth in points allowed but just 25th in defensive field goal percentage; in 2023-24, the Knicks ranked second in points allowed and 15th in defensive field goal percentage. A major challenge for Brown will be to build a strong defense despite having two poor defenders--Jalen Brunson and Karl-Anthony Towns--playing major minutes as the focal points of an offense that ranked fifth in field goal percentage and ninth in scoring last season.
Cleveland finished with the best record in the Eastern Conference
(64-18, the second best mark in franchise history) before losing in the
second round for the second year in a row. The Cavaliers have
established that they can win a lot of regular season games, but they
have not proven that they can sustain a lengthy playoff run.
Listed below are the eight teams that I expect to qualify for the Eastern
Conference playoffs, ranked based on their likelihood of advancing to the NBA
Finals:
1) New York Knicks: The Knicks fired Coach Tom Thibodeau even though he led the team to the Eastern Conference Finals for the first time since 2000 while taking the Knicks to three straight playoff appearances for the first time since 2011-13. On the surface, it looks odd to get rid of a coach who has been so successful, but there are historical precedents for teams doing well after replacing winning coaches: Paul Westhead led the L.A. Lakers to the 1980 NBA title, but the Lakers replaced him with Pat Riley in 1981, and Riley coached the Lakers to four NBA titles (1982, 1985, 1987-88); Doug Collins led the Chicago Bulls to three straight playoff berths--culminating in reaching the Eastern Conference Finals in 1989--but the Bulls replaced him with Phil Jackson prior to the 1989-90 season, and Jackson coached the Bulls to six NBA titles (1991-93, 1996-98).
There are some obvious differences between the 1980s Lakers/1990s Bulls and the current New York Knicks, with the foremost difference being that the Lakers had two Pantheon members (Kareem Abdul-Jabbar and Magic Johnson) and the Bulls had one Pantheon member (Michael Jordan) plus a player who should be ranked no lower than 25th all-time (Scottie Pippen), while the Knicks do not have any players who are even close to Pantheon level.
The Knicks' best player, Jalen Brunson, is a 6-2 point guard with a shoot-first mentality; although he averaged a career-high 7.3 apg (eighth in the league) last season, his primary skill is scoring, and he has averaged at least 24.0 ppg in each of the last three seasons, peaking at 28.7 ppg in 2023-24 and scoring 26.0 ppg (eighth in the league) last season. The Knicks' second best player, Karl-Anthony Towns, has averaged at least 20 ppg in each of the last nine seasons, including 24.4 ppg (12th in the league) last season. Towns ranked second in the NBA with a career-high 12.8 rpg last season, but his poor defense and propensity to commit silly fouls are significant liabilities, particularly in the playoffs.
The Indiana Pacers eliminated the Knicks from the playoffs in each of the last two seasons, but the depleted Pacers do not figure to be a playoff threat--or even a playoff team--this season. The Boston Celtics have been an Eastern Conference Finals staple since 2017, but they will take a step (or several steps) back this season. I don't favor the Cleveland Cavaliers in a best of seven playoff series versus an elite team. Therefore, by process of elimination, the Knicks look like the team to beat in the Eastern Conference.
It was not fair to fire Thibodeau, who did a great job with the Knicks, but Brown is also an excellent coach, and the Knicks seem to be in perfect position to benefit from the general weakening of the Eastern Conference.
2) Cleveland Cavaliers: In his first season as Cleveland's coach, Kenny Atkinson won the Coach of the Year award after leading the Cavaliers to a 64-18 record--but some of the shine from that success was dulled by losing in the second round for the second consecutive season. The Cavaliers have the necessary pieces to make a championship run, including an All-NBA First Team guard (Donovan Mitchell), the 2025 Defensive Player of the Year (Evan Mobley), an All-Star point guard (Darius Garland), and a center who scores efficiently in the paint while also rebounding well (Jarrett Allen).
However, the playoff whole has not yet equaled the sum of the parts. The Knicks bullied the Cavaliers in the 2023 playoffs, the Celtics cruised past the Cavaliers 4-1 in the 2024 playoffs, and the Pacers shredded the Cavaliers' vaunted defense en route to a 4-1 win in the 2025 playoffs. The Cavaliers' playoff failures have been caused by lack of physicality and lack of game plan discipline, particularly on defense. Injuries have played a role, too, particularly last year, but most championship teams overcome some injury-related adversity.
The Cavaliers lost bench sparkplug Ty Jerome to the Memphis Grizzlies, and their only other significant roster move was trading Isaac Okoro to the Chicago Bulls for the oft-injured but very talented Lonzo Ball. Ball has never played more than 63 games in a season, and he has played in just 33 games since the 2021-22 season, but if he can stay healthy he can provide playmaking and tenacious defense.
The Eastern Conference should be wide open, but--as noted above--I don't trust the Cavaliers versus the Knicks in a best of seven series.
3) Orlando Magic: Injuries sidetracked the Magic's ascent last season, but with their key players healthy and some new players--most notably Desmond Bane and Tyus Jones--in the fold, the Magic expect to be one of the Eastern Conference's top teams.
The Magic have a star or potential star in the paint, on the wing, and at guard. Power forward Paolo Banchero set career highs in scoring (25.9 ppg) and rebounding (7.5 rpg) but injuries limited him to 46 games. He is on a trajectory to be an All-NBA player, and he has already shown--albeit in a small sample size of just 12 playoff games--the ability to elevate his game in the postseason, with career playoff averages of 28.0 ppg and 8.5 rpg. Small forward Franz Wagner also set career highs in scoring (24.2 ppg) and rebounding (5.7 rpg), but he played in just 60 games after playing at least 72 games in each of his first three seasons. Guard Jalen Suggs ranked third on the team in scoring (16.2 ppg) before a knee injury ended his season after 35 games.
The slow-paced Magic ranked 28th in points scored, 27th in field goal percentage, first in points allowed, and 17th in defensive field goal percentage. Improved health should help at both ends of the court, but three point shooting remains a major concern until proven otherwise; the Magic ranked 30th (last) in the NBA in both three point field goals made and three point field goal percentage. Bane should boost the Magic's rankings in both categories, as his career three point field goal percentage (.410) ranks 24th in ABA/NBA history, barely behind renowned "Splash Brother" Klay Thompson, and ahead of many noted long-range marksmen, including Dale Ellis, Mark Price, Ray Allen, and Glen Rice.
4) Milwaukee Bucks: Giannis Antetokounmpo is one of the NBA's
elite players. Last season, the two-time regular season MVP (2019, 2020)
and 2021 NBA Finals MVP finished third in regular season MVP voting
after ranking second in the league in scoring (30.4 ppg), sixth in
rebounding (11.9 rpg), and 13th in assists (6.5 apg, just a fraction
short of the career high he set in 2023-24). He made the All-NBA First
Team for the seventh straight year, and he finished in the top nine
(eighth) in Defensive Player of the Year voting for the seventh straight
year. The two-time Defensive Player of the Year has not made the
All-Defensive Team since 2022, but he is still impactful at that end of
the court. His only skill set weaknesses are free throw shooting (.617
last season, .693 for his career) and three point shooting (.222 last
season, .284 for his career).
The Bucks added Myles
Turner--fresh off of Indiana's run to the NBA Finals and back to back
appearances in the Eastern Conference Finals--plus Cole Anthony and Gary
Harris. To sign Turner, the Bucks stretched and waived Damian Lillard,
who likely will not play this season after suffering a left Achilles
tear. The Bucks also parted ways with Brook Lopez and Pat Connaughton.
Lopez was a key member of Milwaukee's 2021 championship team,
but he is 37 years old, so the 29 year old Turner is an upgrade in
terms of both productivity and age. Anthony set career highs in scoring (16.3
ppg) and assists (5.7 apg) with Orlando in 2021-22, so he is capable of
being the starting point guard; he averaged 9.4 ppg and 2.9 apg last season with Orlando, starting 22 of 67 games. Overall, the Bucks gained a lot more
than they lost with these roster moves.
In his first full season as Milwaukee's coach, Doc Rivers posted a 48-34 record, the 14th time he led a team to at least 48 wins. His coaching resume includes one NBA title (Boston, 2008) and two Eastern Conference championships (Boston, 2008 and 2010), but also three blown 3-1 playoff series leads (Orlando Magic versus Detroit Pistons in 2003, L.A. Clippers versus Houston Rockets in 2015, and L.A. Clippers versus Denver Nuggets in 2020). To be fair, Rivers' teams were underdogs in two of those series (2003, 2015); also, Rivers coached Chris Paul in one of those series (2015), and Paul is one of the NBA's all-time playoff chokers, having "led" his teams to defeat a record five times after taking 2-0 series leads while also posting a 3-5 record in game sevens. More often than not, Rivers has maximized the potential of the teams that he coached.
Kyle Kuzma, who the Bucks acquired in a four team midseason trade that involved sending Khris Middleton to the Washington Wizards, averaged 14.5 ppg in 29 games with Milwaukee, ranking third on the team behind Antetlkounmpo and Lillard. Kuzma was a member of the L.A. Lakers' 2020 championship team, and the Bucks need for him to be a consistent scoring threat while also providing solid rebounding.
Bobby
Portis missed 25 games last season due to an NBA suspension for using a
banned substance. He is a physically imposing player who provides
defense, rebounding, three point shooting, and timely scoring. Portis
finished third in Sixth Man of the Year voting in 2023 and 2024.
Getting rid of Lillard--who would not have been able to play this season anyway--is addition by subtraction, particularly defensively. Turner provides athleticism and defense. I think that the Bucks will be better than most analysts are predicting.
5) Detroit Pistons: The Pistons hired J.B. Bickerstaff after
their division rival Cavaliers fired him, and Bickerstaff finished
second in Coach of the Year balloting as the Pistons improved from 14-68
to 44-38. Most of the team's sudden growth happened on defense, as the
Pistons vaulted from 24th in defensive field goal percentage and 26th in
points allowed to ninth and 14th respectively.
Cade Cunningham is an emerging star after averaging a career-high 26.1 ppg (seventh in the league) last season while also setting career highs in assists (9.1 apg, fourth in the league), field goal percentage (.469), and three point field goal percentage (.356). He earned his first All-Star selection and his first All-NBA Team selection (Third Team) while finishing seventh in MVP voting. Cunningham averaged 25.0 ppg, 8.7 apg, and 8.3 rpg in the Pistons' 4-2 first round loss to the New York Knicks.
Despite
their successful season, the Pistons made several changes to their rotation,
acquiring Caris LeVert, Duncan Robinson, and Javonte Green while losing
Tim Hardaway Jr., Dennis Schroder, and Malik Beasley. As a result of
those moves, the Pistons have less talent and depth.
Beasley
played in all 82 games, finished third on the team in scoring (16.3
ppg), led the team in three point field goal percentage (.416), led the
team in three point field goals made (319, second in the league), and
finished second in Sixth Man of the Year voting. Schroder ranked second
on the team in assists (5.3 apg), but he shot just .378 from the field.
Hardaway averaged 11.0 ppg and ranked second on the team in three point
field goals made (168).
LeVert averaged a career-high 20.2
ppg in 2020-21, but he has averaged 14.0 ppg or less in each of the
past three seasons. Robinson is a career .397 three point shooter, but
he provides little else beyond perimeter shooting and he is a defensive
liability. Green has now been with five teams in seven seasons, and his
career scoring average is 5.3 ppg.
Despite the personnel
losses, there are two reasons that the Pistons should be better this
season than they were last season: (1) their young players will continue
to improve, and (2) the Eastern Conference is much weaker than it was
last season.
6) Atlanta Hawks: I do not rank the Hawks as highly as some commentators, because I am skeptical that any team that relies heavily on Trae Young can consistently win a lot of regular season games or go far in the playoffs; the Hawks have reached the playoffs three times in Young's seven season career, and they have advanced past the first round once. The Hawks will be depending heavily on offseason acquisitions Kristaps Porzingis and Nickeil Alexander-Walker to fortify a leaky defense that ranked 27th in points allowed and 28th in defensive field goal percentage--but Porzingis has played in at least 65 games in a season just once since 2017, and even though Alexander-Walker is a good defensive player he is not good enough to transform a team's entire defensive identity.
That being said, the Hawks have not only upgraded their overall talent but they have improved their defense, so it is conceivable that in a weakened Eastern Conference this team could finish in the top four--but even if that happens, I would be surprised if the Hawks advance past the second round.
7) Philadelphia 76ers: The 76ers are a difficult team to rank; if their "Big Three" players each play at least 70 games then the 76ers should finish in the top four in the Eastern Conference's regular season standings--but Joel Embiid's career-high is 68 games (he played in 19 games last season and 39 games two seasons ago), Paul George has played in at least 70 games just once in the past six seasons, and Tyrese Maxey played in just 52 games last season and has played in at least 70 games just twice in his five season career. The 76ers have never advanced past the second round since they began "tanking to the top," and it is unlikely that they will advance past the second round this season, regardless of how they perform during the regular season--but in a decimated Eastern Conference they will probably scrape together enough regular season wins to reach the Play-In Tournament and then slip into the playoffs.
8) Miami Heat: The Heat have reached the playoffs for six
straight seasons, and during that time they advanced to the NBA Finals
twice (2020, 2023). A good case could be made that Erik Spoelstra is the
NBA's best coach, and he is a major reason that the Heat consistently
play well regardless of injuries, roster turnover, and other challenges.
The
Heat suffered a 10 game losing streak soon after trading the
disgruntled Jimmy Butler to the Golden State Warriors last season, but
then they rallied to win six games in a row en route to winning eight of
their last 12 games to qualify for the Play-In Tournament. They then
won two Play-In Tournament games to earn a first round matchup with the
number one seeded Cleveland Cavaliers, who promptly obliterated the
overmatched Heat, 4-0. That series demonstrated that there are limits to
how far a team can advance just with great coaching.
The Heat have a
solid core group of players who have made the All-Star team at least
once--Tyler Herro, Bam Adebayo, and Andrew Wiggins--but they lack a bona
fide MVP-level superstar, and the reality in the NBA is that few teams
win a championship without that kind of player. Herro had offseason foot surgery, and is expected to miss the first few weeks of the season, which means that the Heat may start slowly and have to rally to qualify for the Play-In Tournament, but they have enough talent and toughness to do that.
The Heat
will play tenacious defense and they will try to cobble together a
decent offense, but they are unlikely to advance past the first round.
The teams that finish seventh through
10th in the regular season standings will participate in the Play-In
Tournament. The above eight teams are the teams that I predict will
qualify for the
playoffs, regardless of what the final regular season standings are.
During the Boston Celtics' 2024 championship run, Jaylen Brown won the Larry Bird Eastern Conference Finals MVP and the Bill Russell NBA Finals MVP. It will be interesting to watch Brown try to carry the Celtics sans Jayson Tatum, Jrue Holiday, Kristaps Porzingis, and Al Horford; my prediction is that Boston's defense is going to take a major step backwards after ranking second in points allowed and second in defensive field goal percentage, and I expect that Boston's three point-centric offense is going to struggle without Tatum drawing extra attention from opposing defenses. Anfernee Simons may set career-highs in scoring and three point field goals made, but he will give up at least as much on defense as he provides on offense.
Josh Giddey averaged 21.2 ppg, 10.7 rpg, and 9.3 apg in 19 games
after the All-Star break, but for the Chicago Bulls to advance past the
Play-In Tournament and earn a playoff berth--which the Bulls have done
just once since 2018--they will not only need sustained high level
performance from Giddey but a much stronger collective performance
defensively.
Losing Tyrese Haliburton to injury and Myles Turner to free agency are crippling blows for the Indiana Pacers; if they can fight their way to the 10th seed and get Haliburton back in time for the Play-In Tournament then maybe they can grab the eighth seed, but the most likely scenario is that this team will win less than 35 games.
A healthy season from Brandon Ingram--which is far from certain, considering that he has not played more than 65 games in a season since his rookie campaign (2016-17)--could lift the Raptors into the Play-In Tournament, but the most likely outcome is another trip to the Draft Lottery.
The Brooklyn Nets added Michael Porter Jr., who was an injury prone
scorer for the Denver Nuggets and who played an important role for Denver's 2023 championship team. The Nets appear to be trying to tank without overtly tanking. Porter Jr. will likely average over 20 ppg and provide some entertainment/excitement, but a team with him as the number one option is unlikely to make the playoffs, even in the relatively weak Eastern Conference.
Brandon Miller is a promising young player who has displayed All-Star potential, and the Charlotte Hornets improved defensively last season, but the roster still lacks enough overall talent and depth to contend for a playoff berth.
I will say the same thing about the Washington Wizards that I said in my 2024-25 Eastern Conference Preview: the Wizards "have not been relevant since Russell Westbrook carried the team that should be known as the "Wheeze-hards" to the 2021 playoffs."
**********
Note:
I correctly picked seven of the eight 2025 Eastern Conference playoff teams. Here are
my statistics for previous seasons:
2024: 7/8
2023: 7/8
2022: 6/8
2021: 6/8
2020: 7/8
2019: 6/8
2018: 6/8
2017: 5/8
2016: 5/8
2015: 5/8
2014: 6/8
2013: 7/8
2012: 8/8
2011: 5/8
2010: 6/8
2009: 6/8
2008: 5/8
2007: 7/8
2006: 6/8
2006-2025 Total: 124/160 (.775)
Labels: Atlanta Hawks, Cleveland Cavaliers, Detroit Pistons, Miami Heat, Milwaukee Bucks, New York Knicks, Orlando Magic, Philadelphia 76ers
posted by David Friedman @ 11:41 AM
