Boston Versus New York Preview
Eastern Conference Second Round
#2 Boston (64-18) vs. #4 New York (50-32)
Season series: Boston, 4-0
New York can win if…the Knicks use their physicality to wear down the Celtics, run them off of the three point line, and force them to play a grind it out game; in other words, if the Knicks use Orlando's anti-Boston blueprint but execute it more efficiently because the Knicks have better players and more playoff experience than the Magic. The Knicks have a defensive-minded coach, Tom Thibodeau, but this season's Knicks are not as good defensively as a typical Thibodeau-led team.
Boston beat Orlando 4-1 in the first round, but Orlando held Boston to 109 points or less in five of the six games while limiting the Celtics to 59 three point field goals made (just under 10 per game); in the regular season, the Celtics scored 116.3 ppg (ranking eighth in the league) while making 17.8 three pointers per game (first in the league). Even though the Magic held the Celtics to 106.4 ppg, they lost in a rout because they only scored 93.6 ppg versus the Celtics.
In contrast to the Magic, the Knicks averaged 115.8 ppg (ninth in the league) in the regular season, and they scored 108.0 ppg versus Detroit's tough defense in a 4-2 first round win. At least on paper the Knicks should be able to match up better with the Celtics than the Magic, but the Celtics' 4-0 regular season sweep of the Knicks included three wins by at least 13 points each.
Jalen Brunson averaged 31.5 ppg, 8.2 apg, and 4.0 rpg in New York's 4-2 first round series victory versus Detroit as all five New York starters averaged at least 11.7 ppg. Karl-Anthony Towns contributed 19.7 ppg and a team-high 10.0 rpg in his first playoff series as a Knick; acquiring Towns has made the Knicks a more potent and versatile offensive team at the cost of weakening their defense: the Knicks ranked second in points allowed and 15th in defensive field goal percentage during the 2023-24 regular season, but slipped to ninth and 25th respectively in those categories during the 2024-25 regular season.
Boston will win because...the Celtics enjoy too many matchup advantages. The Knicks' defense may cause some problems for Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown, but over a seven game series Tatum and Brown will have their way; during the regular season, Brown did not put up great numbers versus the Knicks--a trend which will likely not continue during the playoffs--but Tatum averaged 33.5 ppg, 7.0 apg, and 6.8 rpg versus the Knicks with shooting splits of .535/.478/.800. It will be a tall order for the Knicks to contain one of them, let alone deal with both while also contending with Derrick White, Kristaps Porzingis, and Jrue Holiday.
The Celtics are not only tough to guard; they are also tough to score against, ranking second in the league in both points allowed (107.2 ppg) and defensive field goal percentage (.450). The Celtics can throw multiple individual defenders at Brunson, and they have enough size to deal with Towns.
Usually, when the reigning NBA champion wins 60-plus games the next season that would be headline news, but the Celtics have flown under the radar as Oklahoma City and Cleveland posted even better records while Golden State and the L.A. Lakers grabbed attention by trading for Jimmy Butler and Luka Doncic respectively.
Other things to consider: The Knicks are a very good team that did not play well this season versus many of the top teams. The Knicks not only went 0-4 versus the Celtics during the regular season, but they also lost every game that they played versus the Cleveland Cavaliers (0-4), Oklahoma City Thunder (0-2), Golden State Warriors (0-2), and L.A. Clippers (0-2). The Knicks consistently play "good" basketball but rarely do they play "great" basketball, and it will likely take "great" basketball to eliminate the Celtics, a perennial championship contender with perhaps the NBA's most potent starting five.
Boston will defeat New York in five games.
Labels: Boston Celtics, Jalen Brunson, Jaylen Brown, Jayson Tatum, Karl-Anthony Towns, New York Knicks
posted by David Friedman @ 11:03 PM
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