Oklahoma City Versus Minnesota Preview
Western Conference Finals
#1 Oklahoma City (68-14) vs. #6 Minnesota (49-33)
Season series: Tied, 2-2
Minnesota can win if… Anthony Edwards is the best player in the series, if the Timberwolves control the paint, and if the Timberwolves are not careless with the ball.
Edwards averaged a team-high 26.2 ppg, 7.6 rpg (second on the team), and 5.6 apg (second on the team) in Minnesota's 4-1 second round series win versus the Golden State Warriors. Julius Randle also had an outstanding series versus the Warriors, leading the team in assists (7.4 apg) while ranking second in scoring (25.2 ppg) and third in rebounding (6.6 rpg). A lot of nonsense is spouted about why the Timberwolves should reduce Rudy Gobert's role, but Gobert dominated the paint against the Warriors, averaging 9.6 ppg on .643 field goal shooting while leading Minnesota in rebounding (9.4 rpg) and blocked shots (1.8 bpg).
The Timberwolves are a big, physical team, so it is not surprising that they rank second in the playoffs in points allowed (101.1 ppg) and fourth in defensive field goal percentage (.433). Gobert anchors the defense in the paint, while Jaden McDaniels is a stopper on the wing. Donte DiVincenzo (team-high 1.7 spg in the playoffs) and Edwards are good defenders, and veteran point guard Mike Conley is a savvy player at both ends of the court.
The Timberwolves reached the Western Conference Finals last year by knocking off the defending NBA champion Denver Nuggets,
so it should not be surprising that they are in the Western Conference
Finals again--but they had a .500 record (17-17) on January 4, and that
sluggish start may have made a lasting impression on commentators even
though the Timberwolves went 8-1 to end the season. I count myself among those who underestimated them before the playoffs began.
They have committed the fifth most turnovers per game (14.8) among this year's 16 playoff teams; the four teams that committed more turnovers per game--Memphis, Detroit, Miami, and Denver--have been eliminated, with all but Denver losing in the first round. Poor decision making in general and careless ballhandling in particular are two major areas of concern for Minnesota. The Timberwolves rank fourth in playoff field goal percentage (.465) and sixth in scoring (108.2 ppg), so when they take care of the ball they score very efficiently.
Oklahoma City will win because…the Thunder are more talented, deeper, more athletic, and more efficient.
The skepticism about the Thunder is increasingly difficult to understand: they have a great player who is unselfish and plays at a high level on offense and on defense, they have a talented and well-balanced starting lineup, and they may have the league's deepest bench. They posted one of the best regular season records in NBA history (68-14) and set the all-time record for point differential (12.9 ppg), breaking a mark (12.3 ppg) held by the legendary 1971-72 L.A. Lakers team that featured Hall of Famers Wilt Chamberlain, Jerry West, and Gail Goodrich.
The Denver Nuggets fought valiantly to push the Thunder to seven games in the second round, but the
Thunder overwhelmed the Nuggets 125-93 in game seven. During that series, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander led the Thunder in minutes (37.6 mpg), scoring (29.7 ppg), and assists (6.6 apg) while also averaging 6.4 rpg (third on the team), 1.6 spg (tied for second on the team), and .6 bpg (tied for fourth on the team). His shooting splits were .529/.333/.825. Last season, he finished second in regular season MVP voting to three-time MVP Nikola Jokic, and it is reasonable to believe that he will finish first ahead of Jokic this season. Gilgeous-Alexander is not flashy--his game does not feature an abundance of dunks, three pointers, or fancy moves--but his game is brutally efficient and fundamentally sound at both ends of the court. The Thunder appear to have exquisite team chemistry, and as the team's best player and unquestioned leader Gilgeous-Alexander deserves a lot of credit for that.
In 2025, Jalen Williams made the All-Star team for the first time, and he set career-highs in scoring (21.6 ppg), rebounding (5.3 rpg), and assists (5.1 apg). He has been inconsistent during the playoffs, with scoring totals ranging from 6 to 32, but overall he has been productive, ranking second on the team in scoring (19.6 ppg) and assists (5.7 apg) while ranking fourth in rebounding (5.4 rpg). The Thunder will need for him to score 20-plus ppg versus the Timberwolves.
The rail-thin Chet Holmgren is the Thunder's third leading playoff scorer (15.7 ppg), and he leads the team in rebounding (9.7 rpg) and blocked shots (2.2 bpg). The big and rugged Isaiah Hartenstein leads the team in playoff field goal percentage (.605) while also ranking second in rebounding (8.7 rpg) and fourth in assists (2.8 apg); he is not only a lob threat at the rim but he can also run the offense at times from the high post, passing to cutters.
Alex Caruso is the Thunder's oldest player (31 years old) and the only player on the team with championship experience. He is a feisty and smart defensive player who leads the team in playoff steals (1.8 spg) while also shooting .417 from three point range. His scrappy post defense versus Jokic in game seven contributed to the Thunder run that broke the game open.
Other things to consider: In my 2024 Western Conference Finals Preview, I praised the way that the Timberwolves constructed their team:
While other franchises try to "tank to the top" or assemble "super teams," the Timberwolves built their roster organically. Tim Connelly, who laid the foundation of the Denver Nuggets' championship success before becoming Minnesota's President of Basketball Operations, assembled the Timberwolves' roster with the understanding that size matters in the NBA at both ends of the court. "Stat gurus" mocked Connelly's trade for Rudy Gobert, but Connelly did not panic after the Timberwolves lost 4-1 to the Denver Nuggets in the 2023 playoffs. Connelly ignored the noise about Gobert being unplayable in today's "pace and space" NBA--noise that could still be heard during the second round of this year's playoffs before the Timberwolves won games six and seven to send the Nuggets home for the summer.
In contrast, the Thunder tanked for two seasons (2020-22). Historically, it has been proven that tanking does not work, so if the Thunder cap their tremendous season with a championship then they will be the first NBA team to "tank to the top" (the premature and inaccurate description applied to Philadelphia's disastrous tanking)--but what the Thunder did differs from what most other tanking teams did because the Thunder did not embrace tanking and denied (and still deny) that they ever tanked; it could be argued that this is a distinction without a difference, but one of the problems with tanking is that it infects a franchise with a losing culture by accepting the notion that trying to win every game does not matter. The 76ers embraced what they called "The Process," and their franchise still displays a losing mentality on and off of the court, as demonstrated by--among other things--load management, and key players not being in peak condition. In contrast, the Thunder made personnel moves that strongly suggested that they were tanking but those moves could also be interpreted as their attempt to build the best roster around budding young star Gilgeous-Alexander. There is no doubt that Coach Mark Daigneault has cultivated a winning culture, and it appears that he started doing so from day one, even when he was saddled with a roster that was not capable of winning very much.
Hopefully, if the Thunder win an NBA title this will not be considered a justification of tanking, because tanking cheats paying fans while demeaning and diminishing the value of competition. The NBA was much better when load management and tanking did not exist.
Regardless of how one feels about how the Thunder assembled their team, there is no denying how strong this team is, nor is there any denying that the Thunder have the edge in this matchup in the most relevant categories: the Thunder have the best player in the series (if not the entire league), they have a better offense, they led the NBA in defensive field goal percentage during the regular season and during the playoffs, and they have enough size to match up with any team.
Oklahoma City will defeat Minnesota in six games.
Labels: Alex Caruso, Anthony Edwards, Chet Holmgren, Jalen Williams, Julius Randle, Minnesota Timberwolves, Oklahama City Thunder, Rudy Gobert, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander
posted by David Friedman @ 8:46 PM
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