20 Second Timeout

Spurs Silence Thunder in Game Seven to Advance to NBA Finals

In game seven of the Western Conference Finals, the San Antonio Spurs started fast, finished strong, and wore down the defending NBA champion Oklahoma City Thunder, winning 111-103 on the Thunder's home court. Victor Wembanyama is without question the Spurs' best player, and he came through with a team-high 22 points plus a team-high tying seven rebounds, but this was very much a team effort: all five starters plus two reserves scored in double figures, including Julian Champagnie (20 points while shooting 6-10 from three point range), Stephon Castle (16 points, six rebounds, team-high six assists), De'Aaron Fox (15 points, five assists), Dylan Harper (12 points, team-high tying seven rebounds), Devin Vassell (11 points, six rebounds), and Keldon Johnson (11 points). The Spurs enjoyed narrow edges in rebounding (40-38) and turnovers (committing 12 while forcing 14), but won this game with their energy and force in transition, outscoring the Thunder 19-7 in fast break points.

The Spurs received the Oscar Robertson Trophy for winning the Western Conference Championship, and Wembanyama earned the Magic Johnson Western Conference Finals MVP, joining a club that includes Stephen Curry (2022), Nikola Jokic (2023), Luka Doncic (2024), and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (2025). Wembanyama's Western Conference Finals numbers display his all-around dominance: 27.3 ppg, 10.9 rpg, 3.1 apg, 2.7 bpg, and 1.4 spg with shooting splits of .481/.400/.895. Wembanyama is the first player to make at least 15 three pointers and block at least 15 shots in the same playoff series, and he is the youngest player to lead his team in scoring and rebounding entering the NBA Finals.

The Thunder, who took a 3-2 series lead despite dropping game one at home, played from behind for most of game seven and could not muster enough offense, shooting 37-83 (.446) from the field--including just 12-35 (.343) from beyond the arc--after ranking fifth in the league in scoring (119.0 ppg), fifth in field goal percentage (.484) and ninth in three point field goal percentage (.365) during the regular season. Throughout this series, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander played below his usual standard, but he performed at an MVP level in game seven, finishing with a game-high 35 points on 12-21 field goal shooting while also dishing for a game-high nine assists; however, he looked drained by the fourth quarter, and he had only four points on 2-4 field goal shooting in the final stanza. Cason Wallace played well (17 points, seven rebounds, four assists) while starting in place of injured 2025 All-Star Jalen Williams, but the other three starters combined for 14 points on 5-13 field goal shooting. Chet Holmgren, who earned his first selections to the All-Star team, All-NBA Third Team, and All-Defensive First Team this season, had four points, four rebounds, and two blocked shots in 34 minutes. There is no doubt that the Thunder expected and needed more from Holmgren than he provided in this game, but it is worth recalling that Dennis Johnson shot 0-14 from the field in game seven of the 1978 NBA Finals, and then earned the 1979 Finals MVP after capturing the first of three NBA titles that he won during his Hall of Fame career; one bad performance by a young player early in his career is not necessarily a reason to completely give up on him (which is not meant to suggest that I expect Holmgren to become as great a player as Johnson).

It takes nothing away from how well the Spurs played in this series--and particularly how they met the challenge after losing game five--to acknowledge that being without Jalen Williams and his replacement Ajay Mitchell (who averaged 15.1 ppg in 11 playoff games this year) proved to be too much for the Thunder to overcome. The Thunder were 2-1 with Mitchell in the Western Conference Finals and 1-3 without him; this is not just about Mitchell's numbers but about the domino effect that his absence had on the Thunder's rotation plus the extra ballhandling responsibilities that Gilgeous-Alexander had to assume with both Williams and Mitchell not available. 

Injuries are part of the game, though, and attrition is a major reason why it is so difficult to win back to back titles.

The Spurs led 10-4 by the 9:11 mark of the first quarter, and were ahead 27-13 with 5:07 remaining in first quarter. We have seen some teams just quit--even on their home court--after getting hit in the mouth, but the Thunder will never be mistaken for the Cleveland Cavaliers. The Thunder cut the margin to 32-25 by the end of the first quarter. The Spurs led by as much as 11 in the second quarter, but the Thunder fought back to tie the score at 49 on a Lu Dort three pointer with 2:17 remaining. Holmgren drained a pair of free throws to give the Thunder their biggest lead of the game, 53-49, before the Spurs closed the half on a 7-0 run in the final 54 seconds. 

Oklahoma City coach Mark Daigneault tried to boost his team's sagging offense by changing his second half starting lineup, inserting Jaylin Williams and Alex Caruso in place of Isaiah Hartenstein and Lu Dort. Caruso had a very good series overall and he was the Thunder's second leading scorer (14.9 ppg) versus the Spurs, but in this game he had 12 points on 3-14 field goal shooting. The Thunder briefly led by three in the third quarter, but the Spurs were on top for the final 19:33 of the game.

Johnson's layup with 8:00 left in the fourth quarter put the Spurs up 97-86, and that play might have been the breaking point for many teams, but the Thunder answered with a Hartenstein three point play plus a Gilgeous-Alexander turnaround jumper to slash the lead to 97-91 at the 6:49 mark. Wembanyama committed his fifth foul on the Hartenstein score, and the Spurs replaced him with Luke Kornet during a timeout with 6:48 remaining. This seemed to be an opportunity for the Thunder to do some damage with Wembanyama on the bench. Hartenstein stole a pass on the Spurs' next possession and was poised to deliver a fast break dunk to put the Thunder within four points--but Kornet made perhaps the biggest play of the game, a spectacular chasedown blocked shot that the Spurs soon turned into a Castle jump shot to make the score 99-91. The Spurs led by at least six points the rest of the way. 

Wembanyama, who proudly wears his emotions on his sleeve, cried after the final buzzer sounded. Good for him for showing how much winning means to him. He appears to have the right mix of confidence, team-oriented mindset, and passion for the game to be an all-time great--but that is something that must be proven with sustained excellence.

You may recall Cleveland coach Kenny Atkinson claiming that "analytically" his team won two of the first three games of a series in which his squad was swept, losing by double digit margins in each game; after the fourth loss, Atkinson's main man James Harden insisted that the Cavaliers are a better team than the New York Knicks. In the wake of those delusional and self-serving remarks, it was refreshing to hear Gilgeous-Alexander's take on his team's game seven loss: "They were just the better team tonight from start to finish." A big part of being a champion is understanding how to lose, and how to learn from losses--and delusion is not part of that equation.

This was an entertaining and well played series overall, even though the last five games were each decided by double digit margins. Rivalries make sports special--some of my favorite basketball memories involve the annual showdowns between the Philadelphia 76ers and Boston Celtics in the early 1980s as Julius Erving and Larry Bird battled for individual and team supremacy--so let's hope that we are fortunate enough to see a few more Spurs-Thunder playoff matchups featuring Wembanyama and Gilgeous-Alexander as the headliners. This was the first time that two top top three MVP finishers faced off in the Conference Finals since Erving and Bird squared off in 1981 and 1982.

Labels: Chet Holmgren, Oklahoma City Thunder, San Antonio Spurs, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Stephon Castle, Victor Wembanyama

posted by David Friedman @ 2:20 AM

6 comments

Thunder Go Big, Beat Spurs to Tie Western Conference Finals at 1-1

After Victor Wembanyama and his San Antonio Spurs dominated the paint in a 122-115 overtime victory over the Oklahoma City Thunder in game one of the Western Conference Finals, the Thunder faced a must-win situation in game two. In game one, Wembanyama led both teams in points (41), rebounds (24), and blocked shots (three) as the Spurs outscored the Thunder 52-38 in the paint and outrebounded the Thunder 61-40; the Thunder went small in game one, with starting center Isaiah Hartenstein playing just 12 minutes after averaging 24.2 mpg during the regular season as he led the squad in rebounding (9.4 rpg) for the second consecutive year.

Hartenstein played 27 minutes in game two and led the Thunder with 13 rebounds as the Thunder won 122-113. Hartenstein's bump and run defense on Wembanyama resulted in the young phenom having 21 points, a game-high 17 rebounds, six assists, and a game-high four blocked shots; those are excellent numbers for most players, but those are also numbers that the Thunder can live with from Wembanyama. The Spurs won the rebounding battle again, but only by four (45-41), and the Spurs also only led by four in points in the paint (46-42); the Thunder won the overall possession battle by forcing 21 turnovers while committing just nine turnovers, with the net result being that the Thunder launched 94 field goal attempts while limiting the Spurs to 84. The team field goal percentages were close (.488 for the Spurs, .479 for the Thunder), so the Thunder's extra possessions made a huge difference.

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, who had 24 points on 7-23 field goal shooting in game one, led both teams with 30 points and nine assists in game two while shooting 12-24 from the field. Alex Caruso, who erupted for a playoff career-high 31 points in game one, had 17 points in game two. Chet Holmgren added 13 points, while Jared McCain and Cason Wallace had 12 points each to help the Thunder overcome the loss of 2025 All-Star Jalen Williams, who played just seven minutes before leaving the game after reinjuring the left hamstring that caused him to miss six of the Thunder's 10 playoff games this year.

Stephon Castle led the Spurs in scoring (25 points) and assists (eight) but he had a game-high nine turnovers after committing 11 turnovers in game one. He set the record for most turnovers in consecutive playoff games since the NBA began officially tracking turnovers during the 1977-78 season. Castle has been forced into the primary ballhandling role because De'Aaron Fox missed both games due to a right ankle sprain. The Spurs' elite backcourt had another setback in the third quarter when Dylan Harper suffered a right leg injury that forced him to miss the rest of the game.

The injuries to key players on both teams could affect the outcome of the series, but the Thunder are probably better positioned than the Spurs to withstand injuries not only because the Thunder have more depth and more playoff experience but also because they posted the best regular season record despite Williams playing in just 33 out of 82 games: the Thunder have been forced to learn how to win without their second best player.

Commentators who declared the series to be over after game one apparently could not comprehend the simple fact that the Spurs needed overtime to beat the Thunder with the Thunder playing beneath their normal level and with Wembanyama putting up boxscore numbers not seen in the playoffs since Hakeem Olajuwon and Shaquille O'Neal were in their prime years; unless one assumed that Wembanyama would average 40-20 while the Thunder shot less than .410 from the field it should have been obvious that the Thunder would bounce back strongly in game two, particularly if the Thunder had enough sense to stop trotting out small lineups. 

It is worth noting that during last year's championship run the Thunder lost game one in two of their four playoff series. In the 2025 NBA Finals, the Indiana Pacers won game one and took a 2-1 lead over the Thunder after Thunder coach Mark Daigneault made the mistake of going small in the first three games, benching center Isaiah Hartenstein in favor of Cason Wallace. Daigneault started Hartenstein over Wallace in the Thunder's 111-104 game four win, and kept Hartenstein in the starting lineup the rest of the way en route to the Thunder winning the series, 4-3; the Thunder went 3-1 with their traditional double big man lineup, and they went 1-2 with their small lineup.

Going small is a move that many media members often advocate, but the reality is that in most instances a team should go with what they do best as opposed to going small; the two obvious exceptions are (1) when the small lineup is the team's best lineup and (2) when the team is clearly inferior to the extent that any change or disruption is worth a shot. Here, it is odd that Daigneault not only went small for no reason during the 2025 NBA Finals but then made the same mistake in game one versus the Spurs. The Thunder were better than the 2025 Pacers and are better than the 2026 Spurs, and a big reason (pun intended) that the Thunder are better is the effectiveness of their double big lineup featuring Hartenstein and Holmgren. Those two big men protect the paint and provide timely inside presence offensively, enabling the three perimeter players to wreak havoc at both ends of the court. Downsizing hurts the Thunder defensively and on the boards. 

By virtue of seizing homecourt advantage with the game one win, the Spurs have the edge on paper in the Western Conference Finals as the series shifts to San Antonio for the next two games, but the Thunder have the edge on the court if they manage the matchups correctly. Often, the best "adjustment" is to make no adjustment at all--and in this series the Thunder would be best served by not outsmarting themselves with small lineups or any other gimmicks.

Labels: Isaiah Hartenstein, Oklahama City Thunder, San Antonio Spurs, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Stephon Castle, Victor Wembanyama

posted by David Friedman @ 9:42 AM

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Shai Gilgeous-Alexander Becomes the Fifth Guard to Win Consecutive NBA Regular Season MVPs

In 2025, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander won the regular season MVP, Magic Johnson Western Conference Finals MVP, and Bill Russell NBA Finals MVP; now, he is one step closer to repeating that individual "three-peat" this season after capturing the 2026 NBA regular season MVP. Gilgeous-Alexander received 83 out of 100 first place votes and 939 total points from an international media panel, with three-time regular season MVP Nikola Jokic (2021, 2022, and 2024) finishing a distant second with 10 first place votes and 634 total points, and 2026 Defensive Player of the Year Victor Wembanyama rounding out the top three (five first place votes, 539 total points).

Gilgeous-Alexander joins Magic Johnson (1989-90), Michael Jordan (1991-92), Steve Nash (2005-06), and Stephen Curry (2015-16) as the only guards to win back to back NBA regular season MVPs. He is the 15th player in pro basketball history to win consecutive regular season MVPs, joining a list that includes (in addition to the guards listed above) Bill Russell (1961-63 NBA), Wilt Chamberlain (1966-68 NBA), Kareem Abdul-Jabbar (1971-72, 1976-77 NBA), Julius Erving (1974-76 ABA), Moses Malone (1982-83 NBA), Larry Bird (1984-86 NBA), Tim Duncan (2002-03 NBA), LeBron James (2009-10, 2012-13 NBA), Giannis Antetokounmpo (2019-20 NBA), and Nikola Jokic (2021-22).

I analyzed the 2026 regular season MVP race in my 2025-26 NBA Playoff Predictions article, concluding, "This is the fourth straight season that Shai Gilgeous-Alexander has performed at an MVP level, and in the previous three seasons he finished fifth, second, and first in the balloting. He averaged at least 30.1 ppg and at least 5.5 apg while shooting at least .510 from the field in each of those four seasons. Gilgeous-Alexander combines the elite midrange shooting touch of George Gervin with the ability to slash to the hoop, draw fouls, and dish to open teammates. He is also an excellent defensive player. There is nothing negative to say about him, and no reason that he should not be selected as MVP--except for the inconvenient fact that Jokic is even more productive and efficient."

Two seasons ago, Jokic joined Wilt Chamberlain as the only players to rank in the top three in the league in scoring, rebounding, and assists in the same season while becoming the first center and third player overall to average a triple double for an entire season; this season, Jokic averaged 27.7 ppg (eighth in the league), 12.9 rpg (first in the league), and 10.7 apg (first in the league) with shooting splits of .569/.380/.831. Jokic has averaged at least 24.5 ppg, at least 10.8 rpg and at least 7.9 apg for six straight seasons while never shooting worse than .566 from the field; no player in pro basketball history has matched each of those thresholds for a six season span. It is difficult to rationally argue that any player in the league is more versatile and productive than Jokic, and it could be argued that he is as versatile and productive as any player in pro basketball history; the counterarguments would focus on defense (which--other than defensive rebounding--is not captured by the above statistics) and on the reality that the NBA currently (1) has diluted its talent by expanding to 30 teams and (2) is plagued by up to a third of the teams tanking, which results in distorted statistics for the teams that are not tanking (and, consequently, for the players on those teams).

Wembanyama averaged 25.0 ppg and 11.5 rpg (fourth in the league) while capturing his third straight shotblocking title (3.1 bpg). If he can stay healthy, he could rewrite the record book while transforming the view of a how a big man can or should play.

Gilgeous-Alexander's statistical profile is also remarkable. This season, he became the first guard to average at least 30 ppg while shooting at least .550 from the field; the closest Michael Jordan came to accomplishing this was when he posted five 30 ppg seasons during which he shot between .519 and .539 from the field, while George Gervin deserves an honorable mention for scoring 33.1 ppg on .528 field goal shooting en route to winning the 1980 scoring title. Gilgeous-Alexander, Chamberlain, and Jordan are the only players who averaged at least 30 ppg while shooting at least .500 from the field in four consecutive seasons. Gilgeous-Alexander broke Chamberlain's record for consecutive regular season games with at least 20 points (126), pushing the mark to 140 (and counting).

Gilgeous-Alexander, Jokic, and Wembanyama share at least one quality: they each genuinely seem to care more about team success than about individual numbers and accolades. Other players in the league would do well to aspire not so much to match the trio's gaudy statistics but rather the selfless way that they play.

Labels: Denver Nuggets, Nikola Jokic, Oklahoma City Thunder, San Antonio Spurs, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Victor Wembanyama

posted by David Friedman @ 3:22 PM

8 comments

Oklahoma City Versus San Antonio Preview

Western Conference Finals

#1 Oklahoma City (64-18) vs. #2 San Antonio (62-20) 

Season series: San Antonio, 4-1 

San Antonio can win if…Victor Wembanyama dominates the paint at both ends of the court while the Spurs' backcourt troika of Stephon Castle, De'Aaron Fox, and Dylan Harper keeps pace with Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and the Thunder's deep rotation of perimeter players. The Spurs won the regular season series 4-1 by controlling the paint and by not letting the Thunder dominate the possession game; the Thunder typically thrive when they force a lot of turnovers while minimizing their own turnovers.

Wembanyama's debut playoff run has been very productive so far; he has averaged a team-high 20.3 ppg, a team-high 10.7 rpg, and a league-leading 4.1 bpg in 10 games. He missed game three in the first round versus Portland while he was in concussion protocol, and he ranks just fourth on the team in playoff mpg (28.8) as the Spurs do everything possible to keep him healthy and fresh. 

Wembanyama averaged 19.8 ppg while leading the Spurs in rebounding (12.0 rpg) and blocked shots (4.2 bpg) as the Spurs eliminated the Minnesota Timberwolves 4-2 in the second round, ending the Timberwolves' bid to make a third straight appearance in the Western Conference Finals. Wembanyama had a slow offensive start to the series in San Antonio's 104-102 game one loss (11 points on 5-17 field goal shooting) but he also snared a game-high 15 rebounds and set an NBA single game playoff record with 12 blocked shots, surpassing the previous mark (10) held by three players (Mark Eaton, Hakeem Olajuwon, and Andrew Bynum) for a statistic that the NBA has tracked since the 1973-74 season (which means that the numbers for Bill Russell, Wilt Chamberlain, and a young Kareem Abdul-Jabbar are not known). The Spurs then won two straight games with Wembanyama leading the way, notching 19 points, a game-high 15 rebounds, and two blocked shots in San Antonio's 133-95 game two rout before exploding for 39 points, 15 rebounds, and five blocked shots in San Antonio's 115-108 game three victory. Wembanyama was ejected for elbowing Naz Reid in the head after playing less than 13 minutes in game four, and the Spurs lost 114-109. Wembanyama bounced back with 19 points, a game-high 17 rebounds, and a game-high three blocked shots in the Spurs' 126-97 game five win at home, and then he had 19 points, six rebounds, and a game-high three blocked shots as the Spurs closed out the series with a 139-109 rout on the road.

Castle ranks second on the team in playoff scoring (19.9 ppg), first in playoff assists (6.1 apg), and second in three point field goals made (22). Fox is third on the team in playoff scoring (18.8 ppg) and second in assists (5.8 apg). Harper is fourth on the team in playoff scoring (13.7 ppg) and third in rebounds (5.1 rpg). Their numbers are not overwhelming individually, but collectively they put a lot of pressure on opponents in multiple ways, and they make it difficult for opponents to load up on Wembanyama.

Oklahoma City will win because…the Thunder are more consistent and more efficient. The Spurs' regular season dominance of the Thunder should not be dismissed, and it could be argued that the Spurs are a better team now than they were even just a few months ago, but the Thunder have proven over the past two seasons that they are capable of rising to the occasion when it matters most.

The Thunder are the only team to sweep the first two rounds of the 2026 playoffs, and they are the first reigning NBA champion to sweep the first two rounds since the 2001 Lakers accomplished this during the second championship run of their 2000-02 "three-peat."

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander did not perform up to his high standards during the Thunder's 4-0 second round sweep of the L.A. Lakers, but he still led both teams in scoring (24.5 ppg) while pacing the Thunder in assists (6.0 apg). Overall, Gilgeous-Alexander is leading the Thunder in playoff scoring (29.1 ppg) and assists (7.1 apg) with shooting splits of .514/.323/.855. He is the 2026 playoff leader in two point field goals made per game and free throws made per game.

The Thunder have rolled even though their second best player, 2025 All-Star Jalen Williams, has only played in two of their eight playoff games, averaging 20.5 ppg on .615 field goal shooting. Williams has been out of action with a grade 1 left hamstring strain since suffering the injury on April 22 in the Thunder's 120-107 game two win versus Phoenix in the first round.

Willaims' absence has given Ajay Mitchell a chance to shine. Mitchell is averaging 18.8 ppg in eight playoff games with six starts after averaging 13.6 ppg in 57 regular season games with 16 starts. 

Chet Holmgren (18.6 ppg, team-high 9.1 rpg, team-high 1.8 bpg) and Isaish Hartenstein (9.9 ppg, 8.8 rpg, team-high .756 FG%) control the paint at both ends of the court. There is no love lost between Wembanyama and Holmgren, so that will be a fun--and critical--matchup to watch.

Alex Caruso (7.6 ppg, 1.5 spg), Cason Wallace (7.3 ppg, team-high 1.8 spg), Philadelphia cast-off Jared McCain (7.3 ppg), and Isaiah Joe (6.6 ppg) anchor a deep, versatile bench.

Other things to consider: In The Glitch in "The Process" is a Feature, not a Bug, I discussed how the Thunder assembled their championship-winning roster:

Here is how the Thunder acquired their top nine players in regular season mpg from their 2025 championship season: 

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander--the NBA's reigning regular season MVP, Magic Johnson Western Conference Finals MVP, and Bill Russell NBA Finals MVP--is the Thunder's franchise player. The Thunder obtained Gilgeous-Alexander and the draft pick that became All-Star Jalen Williams (their second best player) by trading Paul George to the L.A. Clippers. Morey's 76ers later signed Paul George after the Clippers wisely decided to not give George a maximum contract extension. 

The Thunder used a first round draft pick obtained by tanking to select Chet Holmgren. 

Lu Dort was not drafted, Isaiah Hartenstein was a free agent, Cason Wallace was acquired in a trade, Aaron Wiggins was a second round draft pick, Isaiah Joe was a free agent who had been waived by the 76ers, and Alex Caruso was acquired in a trade that sent Josh Giddey from the Thunder to the Chicago Bulls. The Thunder had selected Giddey with a first round pick obtained by tanking, but after they determined that Giddey was not the best fit with the rest of their roster they shrewdly shipped him out to obtain a proven championship-winning veteran who is a great leader and great defensive player.

Thunder general manager Sam Presti cut his NBA teeth with the San Antonio Spurs before the Thunder hired him. Knicks coach Mike Brown is also a product of the Spurs' system. I interviewed Brown during his first stint with the Cleveland Cavaliers, and he told me that he takes after his mentor Gregg Popovich in terms of not being a big numbers guy. When I asked Brown what statistics he values, he mentioned defensive field goal percentage and points allowed but not any of the "advanced basketball statistics" that are so in vogue in some quarters and that are so heavily valued by people like Hinkie and Morey. During their 2025 championship season, the Thunder ranked first in defensive field goal percentage and third in points allowed; they ranked first and second respectively in those categories this season. 

As I noted in my 2025 Western Conference Finals Preview, tanking is not why the Thunder are winning, and the Thunder's success should not be considered a justification of tanking "because tanking cheats paying fans while demeaning and diminishing the value of competition. The NBA was much better when load management and tanking did not exist."

The Spurs' roster construction seems less pure. From the outside looking in, it appears that the Spurs tanked to get Wembanyama and then were either very poorly coached during Wembanyama's first season or else tanked again to obtain Castle's draft rights. It is interesting that, in contrast to several teams that admit to tanking (the 76ers being the most obvious example), then-Spurs' coach Gregg Popovich explicitly denied that the Spurs were losing on purpose or would ever lose on purpose. Regardless of what the Spurs did or did not do to obtain Wembanyama, they are so fortunate that Wembanyama is 100% committed to playing selfless, winning basketball as opposed to focusing on individual glory. Wembanyama looks like a player who is capable of leading a team to a championship--but the Thunder have already won a championship with Gilgeous-Alexander leading a talented, deep, and selfless roster. The Spurs more than had the measure of the Thunder during the regular season, but playoff basketball is contested at a different intensity level than regular season basketball. It would not be shocking if the Spurs win this series, but I think that they are still at least a year away from winning the Western Conference Finals.

Oklahoma City will defeat San Antonio in six games.

Labels: Ajay Mitchell, Chet Holmgren, De'Aaron Fox, Dylan Harper, Jalen Williams, Oklahoma City Thunder, San Antonio Spurs, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Stephon Castle, Victor Wembanyama

posted by David Friedman @ 8:21 AM

2 comments

The Glitch in "The Process" is a Feature, not a Bug

The New York Knicks swept the Philadelphia 76ers 4-0 to reach the Eastern Conference Finals for the second consecutive season. The last time the Knicks made it to the Eastern Conference Finals two years in a row was 1999-2000, and in my Eastern Conference Finals Preview I will analyze the Knicks in depth, but this article will focus on the 76ers. Before the playoffs began, some commentators dubbed the 76ers as a "team nobody wants to face," a designation often attached to teams that subsequently lose ignominiously in the playoffs.

The 76ers have been "next year's champion" for many years. How did they become a highly touted team that annually falls well short of championship expectations? The 76ers tanked from 2013 to 2016, winning less than 20 games in each of those three seasons. Sam Hinkie, the 76ers' general manager during those awful seasons, arrogantly called the intentional losing "The Process." Author Yaron Weitzman wrote a book about "The Process" called  "Tanking to the Top," but the 76ers did nothing of the sort: two years before Hinkie began "The Process," the 76ers lost in the second round of the 2012 playoffs--and the 76ers have not advanced beyond the second round of the playoffs since that time. The 76ers are the most prominent example of a proven fact: tanking does not work. 

The 76ers never reached the playoffs under Hinkie, who was finally replaced by Bryan Colangelo in 2016. Colangelo ended the tanking, and the 76ers went 28-54 in his first season before jumping to 52-30 in his second season. Colangelo resigned after that season, and he was replaced by Elton Brand. The 76ers went 51-31 and 43-30 in two years under Brand before the 76ers replaced him with Daryl Morey, who previously enjoyed an extended run in Houston despite not producing exceptional results. Like Hinkie, Morey relies heavily on "advanced basketball statistics," which results in Morey believing bizarre things such as publicly declaring that James Harden is a better scorer than Michael Jordan. 

Morey doubled down on Hinkie's faith in Joel Embiid--who dubbed himself "The Process" in honor of Hinkie--by signing the oft-injured Embiid to a three year maximum contract extension in October 2024. There are 14 NBA players being paid at least $50 million this season. Only four of them have not won an NBA title, and two of those four play for the 76ers. Joel Embiid is the NBA's third highest paid player ($55.2 million), and Paul George is the NBA's 13th highest paid player ($51.67 million). Morey's decisions have resulted in the 76ers paying over $100 million this season to two players who have failed to lead the team past the second round. One of the few positive things that can be said about Morey's reign of error in Philadelphia is that he drafted Tyrese Maxey in 2020. Maxey has become the 76ers' best and most consistent player, but it is not clear if Maxey can be the number one option on a team that makes an extended playoff run.

It is fascinating to contrast the dysfunctional 76ers with the Oklahoma City Thunder, the reigning NBA champions and the league's model franchise. I previously discussed in brief how the Thunder built their roster through wise personnel moves and not by tanking (even though it is true that they tanked for a couple seasons), but with the Thunder rolling while the 76ers are reeling it is worth examining in detail how the Thunder put together their deep roster.

Here is how the Thunder acquired their top nine players in regular season mpg from their 2025 championship season: 

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander--the NBA's reigning regular season MVP, Magic Johnson Western Conference Finals MVP, and Bill Russell NBA Finals MVP--is the Thunder's franchise player. The Thunder obtained Gilgeous-Alexander and the draft pick that became All-Star Jalen Williams (their second best player) by trading Paul George to the L.A. Clippers. Morey's 76ers later signed Paul George after the Clippers wisely decided to not give George a maximum contract extension. 

The Thunder used a first round draft pick obtained by tanking to select Chet Holmgren. 

Lu Dort was not drafted, Isaiah Hartenstein was a free agent, Cason Wallace was acquired in a trade, Aaron Wiggins was a second round draft pick, Isaiah Joe was a free agent who had been waived by the 76ers, and Alex Caruso was acquired in a trade that sent Josh Giddey from the Thunder to the Chicago Bulls. The Thunder had selected Giddey with a first round pick obtained by tanking, but after they determined that Giddey was not the best fit with the rest of their roster they shrewdly shipped him out to obtain a proven championship-winning veteran who is a great leader and great defensive player.

Thunder general manager Sam Presti cut his NBA teeth with the San Antonio Spurs before the Thunder hired him. Knicks coach Mike Brown is also a product of the Spurs' system. I interviewed Brown during his first stint with the Cleveland Cavaliers, and he told me that he takes after his mentor Gregg Popovich in terms of not being a big numbers guy. When I asked Brown what statistics he values, he mentioned defensive field goal percentage and points allowed but not any of the "advanced basketball statistics" that are so in vogue in some quarters and that are so heavily valued by people like Hinkie and Morey. During their 2025 championship season, the Thunder ranked first in defensive field goal percentage and third in points allowed; they ranked first and second respectively in those categories this season. 

Numbers matter, but anyone who thinks that the numbers point to tanking as an effective strategy does not understand numbers, basketball, strategy, or team building. It is not an accident that the Thunder are winning while the 76ers are sputtering; those disparate outcomes result from one team consistently making sound strategic decisions and the other team consistently making unsound strategic decisions. It is quite telling that the Thunder began their current rise by getting rid of Paul George, a player who Morey's 76ers acquired (and then overpaid) because they believe that he can be a cornerstone player on a championship team.

Labels: Chet Holmgren, Daryl Morey, Jalen Williams, Joel Embiid, New York Knicks, Oklahoma City Thunder, Paul George, Philadelphia 76ers, Sam Hinkie, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Tyrese Maxey

posted by David Friedman @ 10:59 PM

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Oklahoma City Versus L.A. Lakers Preview

Western Conference Second Round

#1 Oklahoma City (64-18) vs. #4 L.A. Lakers (53-29) 

Season series: Oklahoma City, 4-0 

L.A. can win if…the Lakers win the possession game by cutting down on turnovers and by outrebounding the Thunder. The Lakers rank 15th out of the 16 playoff teams in turnovers committed, while the Thunder rank first, and the Thunder also rank first in turnover differential; the Thunder excel at both taking the ball away on defense (ranking third in the playoffs in steals per game) and protecting the ball on offense, while the Lakers do not protect the ball well and are mediocre at best at taking the ball away (ranking ninth in steals per game). The Thunder rank fifth in the playoffs in rebounding differential (3.8), while the Lakers rank eighth (0.0). If the Lakers do not significantly improve in the possession game then they will have to shoot an extraordinarily high percentage from the field or make a lot of free throws just to keep the games close.

The Lakers were correctly considered underdogs in the first round versus the fifth seeded Houston Rockets because injuries kept Luka Doncic out for the entire series (grade 2 left hamstring strain) and sidelined Austin Reaves until game five (grade 2 oblique strain)--but that was before Kevin Durant was a late scratch for game one with a right knee contusion. Durant, who averaged 26.0 ppg on .520 field goal shooting in 78 regular season games, played in just one game as the Lakers eliminated the Rockets in six games; he scored 23 points on 7-12 field goal shooting in game two, which the Lakers won, 101-94, as the other Rockets scored 71 points on 29-77 (.377) field goal shooting. Durant sprained his ankle during game two and did not play again in the series, so it is not surprising that the Rockets rank 15th in playoff scoring (98.7 ppg), ahead of only the Orlando Magic--who should be called the -rland- Magic (i.e., they have no "O") after averaging 98.3 ppg, including scoring just 19 points in the second half of their 93-79 game six loss to the Detroit Pistons while missing 27 of their final 28 field goal attempts. Only Orlando's record-setting offensive futility kept the Rockets from having the least productive offense in the 2026 NBA playoffs.

While it is fair to say to some extent that the bricklaying Rockets were the architects of their own demise, the Lakers deserve some credit, too, starting with LeBron James. It is not hyperbole to say that James is the greatest 41 year old NBA player ever. He averaged 20.9 ppg, 7.2 apg, and 6.1 rpg during the regular season, and his only concession to age is that he missed 22 games. James improved those numbers to 23.2 ppg, 8.3 apg, and 7.2 rpg versus the Rockets, leading the Lakers in scoring and assists while ranking second in rebounding. 

Reaves averaged 18.5 ppg and 4.0 apg in two games, but he shot just .367 from the field. Rui Hachimura increased his scoring from 11.5 ppg in the regular season to 15.8 ppg versus the Rockets, and he led the Lakers with 17 three point field goals while shooting .586 from beyond the arc. Deandre Ayton grumbled about his role during the season, averaging 12.5 ppg and a team-high 8.0 rpg, and he posted similar numbers versus the Rockets (11.8 ppg, team-high 10.8 rpg). Marcus Smart (14.7 ppg, 13 three point field goals made, .486 3FG%) was a key contributor at both ends of the court versus the Rockets after scoring just 9.3 ppg with a .331 3FG% during the regular season.

Oklahoma City will win because...Shai Gilgeous-Alexander will be the best player in the series and because the Thunder's depth and defensive tenacity will overwhelm the Lakers.

Gilgeous-Alexander averaged 33.8 ppg, 8.0 apg, and 3.8 rpg with shooting splits of .551/.313/.898 during the first round as the Thunder swept the Phoenix Suns. Chet Holmgren averaged 17.3 ppg, a team-high 8.5 rpg, and a team-high 2.0 bpg versus the Suns. Isaiah Hartenstein provided power in the paint with 11.0 ppg, 8.3 rpg, 1.0 bpg, and a team-high .714 FG%. Jalen Williams averaged 20.5 ppg, 5.0 apg, and 4.0 rpg in two games versus the Suns but will miss at least the start of this series due to a grade 1 left hamstring strain. Ajay Mitchell picked up some of the scoring slack by averaging 15.0 ppg, but he shot just .364 from the field.

The Thunder are the highest scoring team in the playoffs (122.8 ppg), and their 17.3 ppg scoring differential is second behind the Knicks (17.5 ppg), whose numbers are a bit distorted by their historic 140-89 game six rout of the Atlanta Hawks. The Thunder also rank second in the playoffs behind the Knicks in field goal percentage (.487).

Neither the offense that the Lakers ran against the Rockets nor the defense that they played against the Rockets will be nearly good enough to contend with the Thunder.  

Other things to consider: The Thunder have been the class of the NBA for the past two years, posting the best regular season record in back to back seasons and capturing the NBA title last season. Although the Thunder were pushed to seven games in two of their four playoff series last year, they did not falter under pressure and became the second youngest team to win an NBA title.

Gilgeous-Alexander swept the MVP awards last season (regular season, Western Conference Finals, NBA Finals), and he could very well match that feat this season. 

In contrast, this is just the second time that the Lakers advanced past the first round since 2020, when they won the "bubble title." The Lakers spent most of this season relying on their high octane offense fueled by the scoring/playmaking prowess of Doncic, Reaves, and James--who for the first time in his career willingly accepted not just a secondary role but a tertiary role. Without Doncic and with Reaves limited, the Lakers relied on James to run the offense; the Lakers fell from 116.3 ppg on a league-leading .502 field goal percentage in the regular season to 101.2 ppg on .474 field goal shooting versus the Durant-less and offensively challenged Rockets, but the Thunder both score and defend much better than the Rockets. If Doncic were available and at full strength, maybe the Lakers could steal a game or two, but this version of the Lakers cannot keep pace with the Thunder, even if Jalen Williams does not play.

Oklahoma City will defeat L.A. in four games.

Labels: Austin Reaves, Chet Holmgren, Jalen Williams, L.A. Lakers, LeBron James, Luka Doncic, Oklahoma City Thunder, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander

posted by David Friedman @ 12:39 AM

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2025-26 NBA Playoff Predictions

For the sixth consecutive season, the NBA used a Play-In Tournament to determine the seventh and eighth seeds in each conference (the NBA also had a Western Conference Play-In Game during the 2020 "bubble" in Orlando). The Philadelphia 76ers and the Orlando Magic claimed the final two Eastern Conference playoff spots, while the Portland Trail Blazers and the Phoenix Suns earned the final two Western Conference playoff spots. Prior to the 2026 Play-In Tournament, I picked Orlando, Charlotte, Phoenix, and the L.A. Clippers to emerge as qualifiers, so my record for correctly picking the Play-In Tournament qualifiers is 3-1 in 2021, 3-1 in 2022, 2-2 in 2023, 3-1 in 2024, 3-1 in 2025, and 2-2 in 2026.

Before explaining my playoff predictions, here is a recap of some of the most significant stories from the 2025-2026 NBA season.

After a dominating 2024-25 regular season that culminated in winning the NBA championship, the Oklahoma City Thunder started their title defense in commanding fashion, bursting out of the gates 8-0 before tying the all-time NBA record for best 25 game start (24-1, first accomplished by the 2015-16 Golden State Warriors). The Thunder had four losses in a six game stretch in December--including back to back defeats by the San Antonio Spurs--but closed the season strongly with 19 wins in a 20 game span before resting their key players in the final two games after wrapping up the number one overall seed in the playoffs. It would have been very difficult to match their historic 2025 standards--including a 68-14 regular season record (tied for sixth-seventh best all-time) with the best point differential in NBA history (12.87 ppg)--but the Thunder's 2025-26 season is very impressive: 64-18 record with a 11.15 ppg point differential (eighth best all-time). 

The Thunder's season is even more impressive considering that each of their top four players in minutes played per game participated in 69 games or less, with 2025 All-Star Jalen Williams appearing in just 33 games. Only two Thunder players played in at least 70 games: Cason Wallace (77 games, 58 starts) and Isaiah Joe (71 games, nine starts).

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander--who won the 2025 regular season MVP, the 2025 Magic Johnson Western Conference Finals MVP, and the 2025 Bill Russell NBA Finals MVP--had another sensational all-around season, leading the team in scoring (31.1 ppg, second in the league) and assists (career-high 6.6 apg) while leading the league in free throws made per game (7.9) for the third straight season. His shooting splits (.553/.386/.879) include a career-high field goal percentage, and he continues to be an excellent defensive player. 

The Thunder's strengths are Gilgeous-Alexander's all-around brilliance supported by tremendous depth, a collective commitment to playing strong team defense, and a collective unselfish attitude at both ends of the court. The Thunder are not quite as dominant in the possession game as they were in 2025 when they led the league in steals, turnovers forced, fewest steals allowed, and fewest turnovers committed, but they still ranked second, second, fourth, and second respectively in those categories. The Thunder are not a huge team, so they can be bothered by size and they are not an elite rebounding squad (ranking 12th in the league), but if they are even somewhat healthy it is difficult to picture them losing a seven game series. 

Victor Wembanyama has been the centerpiece of a talented and deep San Antonio Spurs squad that went 4-1 versus the Thunder during the regular season. I did not foresee the Spurs being this good this fast, but in my 2025-26 Western Conference Preview I made it clear that the Spurs should be expected to make the playoffs (which was not a universally held belief prior to this season): 

There are no more excuses for missing the playoffs. The Spurs have a generational talent--the 2024 NBA Rookie of the Year Victor Wembanyama--plus they have veteran former All-Star guard De'Aaron Fox, and they also have 2025 NBA Rookie of the Year Stephon Castle. I am skeptical about the long term prospects of teams that tanked--and I am not convinced that the Spurs are on a championship track--but the Spurs have too much talent to not at least qualify for the playoffs.

The Spurs ranked second in the league in rebounding, third in scoring, fourth in defensive field goal percentage, sixth in field goal percentage, and eighth in points allowed. Wembanyama's strong imprint is felt in all of those categories, as he led the team in scoring (career-high 25.0 ppg), rebounding (career-high 11.5 rpg, fourth in the league), and blocked shots (3.1 bpg, earning his third shot blocking title in three NBA seasons) while shooting a career-high .512 from the field. De'Aaron Fox earned his second career All-Star selection (his first as a Spur) while averaging 18.6 ppg and 6.2 apg. Stephon Castle improved his numbers across the board to 16.7 ppg, a team-high 7.4 apg (sixth in the league), 5.3 rpg, 1.1 spg, and .471 FG%. 

The Spurs have all of the necessary ingredients for a championship team except for playoff experience. Harrison Barnes (9.9 ppg, 52 starts in 77 games) started for the 2015 NBA champion Golden State Warriors, but he is the Spurs' only rotation player who has significant postseason experience.

Switching to the Eastern Conference, the Detroit Pistons continued their remarkable resurgence under Coach J.B. Bickerstaff, climbing from 14 wins (under Monty Williams) in 2023-24 to 44 wins in Bickerstaff's first Detroit season to pacing the Eastern Conference with 60 wins this season. Cade Cunningham--who led the team in scoring (23.9 ppg) and assists (9.9 apg)--has emerged as an All-NBA Team caliber player during the past two seasons, and fourth year player Jalen Duren earned his first All-Star selection while averaging 19.5 ppg and 10.5 rpg (sixth in the league). Bickerstaff has transformed the Pistons into a physical team that is elite at both ends of the court, ranking third in the league in defensive field goal percentage, third in points allowed, third in field goal percentage, eighth in rebounding, and eighth in scoring.

This season was expected to be a so-called "gap year" for the Boston Celtics in the wake of Jayson Tatum's torn right Achilles suffered during the 2025 playoffs followed by the exodus of key contributors Kristaps Porzingis (19.5 ppg, 6.8 rpg, 1.5 bpg in the 2024-25 regular season), Jrue Holiday (11.1 ppg, 4.3 rpg, 3.9 apg in 2024-25), Al Horford (9.0 ppg, 6.2 rpg in 2024-25), and Luke Kornet (6.0 ppg, 5.3 rpg in 2024-25). The Celtics ranked eighth in the NBA in rebounding during the 2024-25 season; that standard seemed difficult to match sans Tatum, Porzingis, Horford, and Kornet, who ranked first, second, third, and fifth respectively on the team in rebounding--but the Celtics ranked third in rebounding this season. Tatum averaging 10.0 rpg during his 16 game return helped, but six other Celtics each averaged at least 4 rpg, with starting center Neemias Queta averaging 8.4 rpg and leading the squad in total rebounds (636). Jaylen Brown had a high volume season, leading the league in field goals made (736), field goals attempted (1543), and turnovers (259) while setting career highs in scoring (28.7 ppg), rebounding (6.9 rpg), and assists (5.1 apg) to earn his fourth straight All-Star selection (and fifth selection overall).

Brown's increased production provides a nice segue to the MVP conversation. Brown deserves to receive some top five MVP votes and should be a lock for the All-NBA Team, but he should not receive any first place MVP votes. The MVP race is rarely as wide open as media members suggest it to be; in most seasons, the five All-NBA First Team caliber players are a cut above everyone else, and often there are two or three of those players who separate themselves even further. This season, there are three players who should combine to receive all of the first place votes in MVP balloting: Nikola Jokic (the MVP winner in 2021, 2022, and 2024), Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (the 2025 MVP), and Victor Wembanyama. 

It is unfortunate that media-driven narratives appear to play a large role in the voting process, but that is the best explanation for how Allen Iverson, Steve Nash, Derrick Rose, and James Harden each won a regular season MVP (Nash won two!) while Pantheon members Shaquille O'Neal and Kobe Bryant only won one regular season MVP each (but O'Neal earned three NBA Finals MVPs and Bryant earned two NBA Finals MVPs). I have consistently insisted that the MVP should be selected based on skill set evaluations and not narratives or "advanced basketball statistics." The only exception is when there is a dominant player who does not have an all-around skill set but is nevertheless clearly the league's best player. Shaquille O'Neal is the quintessential example of such a player; he was a poor free throw shooter who was only intermittently interested in playing defense, but he was such a dominant scorer and rebounder that he was the NBA's best player during his prime.

There has been a lot of groaning and grumbling about the NBA rule that stipulates that a player must participate in at least 65 regular season games to be eligible for most awards; to no small extent, this complaining is emblematic of much of what is going wrong with our society: there is an expectation--a sense of unwarranted entitlement, to be precise--that one should be paid handsomely and receive award recognition despite putting forth minimal effort. The NBA traditionally did not give awards to players who missed a substantial number of games, and there is nothing wrong with formalizing such rules in an era when so many people have lost respect for tradition and are looking for loopholes/excuses. 

The NBA and NBPA jointly agreed to provide "extraordinary circumstances" exceptions for Luka Doncic and Cade Cunningham so that both players will be eligible for awards. Prior to that announcement, when people talked about Doncic and Cunningham regarding the 65 game rule, emphasis was placed on their late season injuries without pointing out that if both players had not missed so many games throughout the season then their late season injuries would not have rendered them ineligible for postseason awards. I'll say this slowly so everyone can follow: the w-h-o-l-e season counts--games in November, games in December, and games in every other month all matter, and players are being paid huge guaranteed salaries to actively participate in as many games as possible. Such participation used to be the norm, but now must be enforced--and the 65 game rule is part of the current Collective Bargaining Agreement, meaning that the players accepted this requirement.

Jokic played in 65 games this season, which is his lowest number since he played in 55 games and 59 games in his first two seasons. Last season, Jokic became the only player other than Wilt Chamberlain to rank in the top three in the NBA in scoring, rebounding, and assists in the same season while also becoming the first center and third player to average a triple double in a season--and this season Jokic was even better, leading the league in rebounding (12.9 rpg) and assists (career-high 10.7 apg) while ranking eighth in scoring (27.7 ppg) with shooting splits of .569/.380/.830. He is not a lockdown individual defender, but he led the league in defensive rebounding (9.9 defensive rebounds per game) while also averaging 1.4 spg and .8 bpg. Jokic has finished first or second in the MVP voting in each of the past five seasons, but a case could be made that he is underrated. Jokic has averaged at least 24.5 ppg, at least 10.8 rpg and at least 7.9 apg for six straight seasons while never shooting worse than .566 from the field; no player in pro basketball history has matched each of those thresholds for a six season span. Moreover, the team numbers show that during that period the Nuggets performed at an elite level when Jokic is on the court and resembled a Draft Lottery team when he is off of the court (and their 11-6 record this season without him is loaded with wins against lower echelon teams); in other words, he is not just stuffing the stat sheet individually but he is productive in ways that help his team win.

This is the fourth straight season that Shai Gilgeous-Alexander has performed at an MVP level, and in the previous three seasons he finished fifth, second, and first in the balloting. He averaged at least 30.1 ppg and at least 5.5 apg while shooting at least .510 from the field in each of those four seasons. Gilgeous-Alexander combines the elite midrange shooting touch of George Gervin with the ability to slash to the hoop, draw fouls, and dish to open teammates. He is also an excellent defensive player. There is nothing negative to say about him, and no reason that he should not be selected as MVP--except for the inconvenient fact that Jokic is even more productive and efficient.

Third year pro Victor Wembanyama has progressed rapidly in many areas: he is stronger, his shot selection is vastly improved, and he has learned how to impose his will on opposing teams (which is a subtler and more valuable skill than just accumulating gaudy individual numbers). This season, he set career highs in scoring (25.0 ppg), rebounding (11.5 rpg, fourth in the league), and field goal percentage (.512) while leading the league in blocked shots for the third straight season, a feat last accomplished by Marcus Camby (2006-08) and Dikembe Mutombo (1994-96). His Spurs limped to 22 wins in his rookie season, jogged to 34 wins in year two, and sprinted to 62 wins this season. Wembanyama would benefit from adding some more lower body strength, but he has no skill set weaknesses. He is an MVP caliber player--but Jokic is a better player who had an even better season. I rank Wembanyama behind Gilgeous-Alexander because Gilgeous-Alexander has already proven (1) he can sustain MVP caliber play for multiple seasons and (2) he can sustain MVP caliber play during a deep playoff run. One might argue that those two broad contextual factors are not relevant for selecting the MVP for this particular season but I disagree: in a close race, all factors have heightened importance and unless/until Wembanyama either laps the field of MVP candidates or leads his team on a deep playoff run I would select proven players Jokic and Gilgeous-Alexander ahead of him. Put another way, you have to beat the champ to be the champ. We know that what Jokic and Gilgeous-Alexander are doing is sustainable both year to year and in the playoffs, but we just assume that what Wembanyama is doing is sustainable.

I will share a few brief thoughts about three other players who have been mentioned as MVP candidates.

Doncic should not come close to the top three in the balloting. Doncic is a wunderkind on offense but too often he is missing in action on defense. His incessant whining to officials resulted in him accumulating 16 technical fouls, leading to an automatic one game suspension.

Jaylen Brown had a career year in terms of individual statistics, but the surprising Boston Celtics often performed just as well or even better when he did not play. He is an All-NBA First Team caliber player, but he is not as great as the top three MVP candidates. 

Cade Cunningham is an elite scorer/playmaker who also plays good defense, but he is not more skillful or impactful than Jokic, Gilgeous-Alexander, or Wembanyama.

A review of the 2025-26 season would not be complete without mentioning tanking, which has become so widespread that up to 10 of the league's 30 teams are actively losing on purpose. This has major implications for ticket-buying fans, media sponsors, gamblers, and the league's statistical records, which have been permanently skewed, most notably when Bam Adebayo scored 83 points versus the Washington "Wheez-hards." This trampling of the sport's record book matters in terms of historical rankings: Jokic, Gilgeous-Alexander, Wembanyama and other players have set various records, but how seriously should we take those numbers when a third of the league's teams are actively trying to lose?

Here are my first round predictions:

Read more »

Labels: Boston Celtics, Cade Cunningham, Denver Nuggets, Detroit Pistons, Jalen Brunson, Jaylen Brown, New York Knicks, Nikola Jokic, Oklahoma City Thunder, San Antonio Spurs, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Victor Wembanyama

posted by David Friedman @ 1:52 AM

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Knicks Make Magic Disappear and Spurs Silence Thunder in NBA Cup Semifinals

The New York Knicks defeated the Orlando Magic 132-120 to reach the NBA Cup Championship Game, which will be played next Tuesday night in Las Vegas. Jalen Brunson authored yet another virtuoso performance, scoring a game-high 40 points on 16-27 field goal shooting while also dishing for a game-high eight assists and committing just two turnovers in 39 minutes. Brunson has now scored at least 30 points in 88 regular season games as a Knick, surpassing Hall of Fame guard Richie Guerin for third place in franchise history. Carmelo Anthony's second place total (108) is well within reach, but it will take Brunson a while to top Patrick Ewing (203). Karl-Anthony Towns (29 points on 9-11 field goal shooting, eight rebounds) and OG Anunoby (24 points, six rebounds, four assists, three steals) also had strong games as all five New York starters scored in double figures. Former New York coach Tom Thibodeau was criticized for allegedly playing his starters for too many minutes, but in this game--with NBA Cup bonus money on the line--current New York coach Mike Brown played four of New York's five starters at least 37 minutes, while the banged up Josh Hart battled through 31 minutes. Mitchell Robinson only scored five points, but he was a force in the paint, compiling a game-high nine rebounds and a game-high four blocked shots in just 17 minutes off of the bench. 

Jalen Suggs led the Magic with 26 points on 10-16 field goal shooting, but he had 25 of those points in the first half before injuring his left hip in the third quarter. He limped through nine scoreless third quarter minutes and scored just one point in a cameo appearance in the fourth quarter before the Magic shut him down. Suggs, who had a team-high +8 plus/minus number, will be reevaluated after the Magic return to Orlando from Las Vegas. Paolo Banchero added 25 points and eight rebounds, but he shot 0-7 from three point range and he committed a game-high five turnovers; that is a lot of empty possessions created by the team's best player. Banchero is a strong and talented player who should must improve his decision making in general and his shot selection in particular. Desmond Bane scored a game-high 37 points when Orlando beat Miami 117-108 in an NBA Cup quarterfinal game, but he had just 18 points on 7-17 field goal shooting versus the Knicks. 

This game was physical and well-contested but also very fast-paced, which resulted in the high scoring totals for both teams. Each team had 41 rebounds, but the Knicks shot .607 (51-84) from the field while holding the Magic to .464 (45-97) field goal shooting. The Magic led by as much as six in the first quarter, but the Knicks rallied to take a 71-64 halftime edge. The third quarter featured two lead changes and four ties, but the Knicks did not trail in the fourth quarter. 

The Magic have a faster paced, more efficient offense than they did last season, but the goal is not to lose while scoring 120 points; the Magic pride themselves on their defense, so this performance is very disappointing, and below their usual standard. Perhaps the Magic would have fared better if the injured Franz Wagner had been able to play and if Suggs had not gotten injured during the game, but defense is about effort and execution, not just personnel. If the Magic are at full strength during the playoffs, a New York-Orlando playoff series could be very competitive and interesting.

In the second game of Amazon Prime's NBA Cup semifinals doubleheader, the San Antonio Spurs rallied from a 16 point second quarter deficit to stun the Oklahoma City Thunder 111-109, ending the Thunder's 16 game winning streak and handing the 2025 NBA champions just their second loss this season. Victor Wembanyama dominated the game despite a minutes restriction that limited him to 21 minutes off of the bench. He scored 22 points on 6-11 field goal shooting and 9-12 free throw shooting while grabbing a game-high tying nine rebounds, notching a game-high two blocked shots, and posting a gaudy team-high +21 plus/minus number. This was his first game back after missing the last 12 games because of a left calf injury. The Spurs went 9-3 without Wembanyama, but in this game they looked vastly superior with him on the court compared to when he was not on the court. Devin Vassell scored a team-high 23 points while collecting five rebounds and four assists, while De'Aaron Fox and Stephon Castle scored 22 points each.

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander scored a game-high 29 points on 12-23 field goal shooting, but his teammates managed to produce just 80 points on 26-69 (.377) field goal shooting as the Thunder's vaunted strength in numbers vanished. The Spurs forced Gilgeous-Alexander to play in a crowd, and they denied him access to his favorite midrange areas. He responded by willingly making the right passes, but his teammates did not make enough shots. Jalen Williams (17 points on 5-16 field goal shooting) and Chet Holmgren (17 points on 3-8 field goal shooting) both had subpar games. Isaiah Hartenstein was solid (10 points on 5-9 field goal shooting, game-high tying nine rebounds), but the Thunder player who performed the best other than Gilgeous-Alexander was Alex Caruso, who had 11 points, eight rebounds, three assists, three steals, and no turnovers in 24 minutes off of the bench. Caruso had a game-high +22 plus/minus number, including +6 in a tightly contested fourth quarter.

The Spurs won the rebounding battle 52-51, and they only lost points in the paint 44-40. In a game where the outcome hung in the balance until the final buzzer sounded, the best thing that the Spurs did was remain composed through both the highs and the lows; the Thunder attack their opponents in aggressive waves of relentless pressure defense leading to high percentage shots, but the Spurs weathered each storm after a bumpy first quarter. The Thunder do not have many weaknesses or vulnerabilities, but the best recipe to beat them involves (1) controlling the pace, (2) limiting turnovers, and (3) attacking the paint. Controlling the pace does not necessarily mean only playing fast or only playing slow, but rather not letting the Thunder speed you up to force turnovers and bad shots; the Spurs did a great job of pushing the ball when they had an advantage in numbers and running a half court offense when they did not have an advantage in numbers. 

When the Thunder led 14-4 at the 8:18 mark of the first quarter, it seemed like this would be yet another double digit Thunder win with Gilgeous-Alexander watching the fourth quarter relaxing on the bench. The Spurs stabilized themselves for the rest of the first quarter, and even though they did not cut into the margin they also did not plummet into a 20 point deficit. The Thunder led 31-20 heading into the second quarter. Wembanyama did not play at all in the first quarter, and it soon became evident just how significant his absence was; he had five points and five rebounds in seven minutes in the second quarter, but his +20 plus/minus number just hinted at his impact at both ends of the court. The Spurs trimmed the lead to 33-29 at the 8:35 mark with Wembanyama in the game, but after he took a break the Thunder surged to a 47-31 lead with 3:52 left before Wembanyama returned. The Spurs closed the second quarter with a 15-2 run with Wembanyama seemingly everywhere at once at both ends of the court as he altered shots on defense and forced the Thunder to account for his presence on offense. 

The Spurs took their first lead of the game, 57-56, on a Fox fast break drive at the 8:45 mark of the third quarter. Neither team led by more than six points the rest of the way. One might expect that a championship team would have the advantage in a nip and tuck game versus a young and inexperienced team, but that was not the case in this game. Wembanyama's jump shot with 2:32 remaining in the fourth quarter put the Spurs up 102-101, and they never trailed again; down the stretch, the Spurs played excellent defense and they made enough free throws to hold off the Thunder.  

In my December 3 NBA Cup article, I correctly picked each of the four quarterfinal game winners before picking Orlando and Oklahoma City as semifinal game winners; since I was wrong about both semifinal game winners it is time for me to make a new prediction about the NBA Cup Championship Game.

It does not make much sense to call Knicks versus Spurs a rematch of the 1999 NBA Finals because many of the participants in the upcoming 2025 NBA Cup Championship Game were not even born yet in 1999. More relevant is that the Knicks reached the 2025 Eastern Conference Finals while the Spurs missed the playoffs; the Knicks began this season with championship aspirations while the Spurs entered this season intent on proving that they can be the first San Antonio team to qualify for postseason play since 2019. Both teams are 18-7 now, and both teams are on the upswing, with the Knicks 9-1 in their last 10 games and the Spurs 7-3 in their last 10 games (nine of which they played without Wembanyama). 

The matchups are fascinating. Will the Knicks try to muscle Wembanyama, or will they try to harass him by swarming him with pesky small defenders? How will the Spurs try to exploit Brunson's subpar defense, and how will the Knicks try to hide Brunson on that side of the court? The coaches who will make those decisions are Mitch Johnson, who is in his first full season at the helm in San Antonio, and Mike Brown, who led the Cleveland Cavaliers to the 2007 NBA Finals and has won four NBA titles as an assistant coach, including one with the Spurs (2003) and three with the Golden State Warriors (2017-18, 2022). Johnson's father John was the starting small forward for Seattle's 1979 NBA championship team. Brown has the edge on paper by virtue of his long resume full of NBA championships and NBA Finals appearances, but Johnson has shown a lot of promise in his short time on the job while presiding over the development of not only Wembanyama but also other young players on the roster. 

If this were a seven game series, I would pick the Knicks, much like I would have picked them over the Magic in a series but thought that the Magic would prevail in a one game winner take all scenario (never mind that I ended up being wrong about that!). Wembanyama has not proven that he can stay healthy for a whole season, let alone dominate during an extended playoff run--but he has shown that in just 21 minutes he can be a force even against the dominant Oklahoma City Thunder, so I will pick the Spurs to win a game that I expect (and hope) will be as closely contested and well-played as their victory over the Thunder.

Labels: Jalen Brunson, Jalen Suggs, Karl-Anthony Towns, New York Knicks, Oklahoma City Thunder, Orlando Magic, San Antonio Spurs, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Victor Wembanyama

posted by David Friedman @ 2:49 AM

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Oklahoma City and San Antonio Roll to the NBA Cup Semifinals

The Oklahoma City Thunder jumped out to a 36-16 first quarter lead versus the Phoenix Suns before cruising to a 138-89 win in their NBA Cup quarterfinals game. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander led the way with game-high totals in points (28 on 11-15 field goal shooting) and assists (eight) but he had plenty of help: Chet Holmgren had 24 points on 9-13 field goal shooting plus a game-high eight rebounds, Jalen Williams contributed 15 points, five rebounds, and five assists, and the Thunder's bench players combined to outscore the Suns' starters, 50-41. The Thunder led 74-48 at halftime and 110-72 after the third quarter, so--as has often been the case this season--Gilgeous-Alexander did not play in the fourth quarter; he is averaging almost a point per minute this season while barely playing 33 mpg, so it is fair to wonder how much he could score if he played 40 mpg and his team needed him to score a lot in the fourth quarter. Dillon Brooks led the Suns with 16 points, but he shot just 4-16 from the field.

The Thunder shot .591 (52-88) from the field while holding the Suns to .393 field goal shooting (33-84) with 20 turnovers. The Suns were missing the injured Devin Booker, but he could have scored 30 points and the Thunder still would have won going away; more than a fourth of the NBA season is over and the Suns seem to be at least a solid team, but the way that the Thunder dismantled them looked like the Dream Team (and there is only one Dream Team) dominating outclassed squads in the 1992 Olympics.

The game's only mild drama or suspense happened at the 5:18 mark of the third quarter when Phoenix guard Grayson Allen elbowed Holmgren in the chest and shoved Holmgren to the ground. Holmgren and other Thunder players stood their ground but did not do anything crazy. The referees assessed a Flagrant Foul 2 to Allen, meaning that Allen was automatically ejected. No Thunder players received fouls or technical fouls on the play; that is a level of individual and collective self-discipline that is not seen often enough in the NBA and is foreign to Draymond Green, whose lack of self-discipline and inability to control his anger is embarrassing for him, his team, and the league. The Thunder are focused on playing unselfish, winning basketball without individual agendas, drama, or nonsense, and that is very refreshing to see in a league that has too many individual agendas and too much drama/nonsense.

The Thunder matched the best 25 game start--24-1--in NBA history. Much like the only two teams in NBA history that won at least 70 regular season games--the 1995-96 Chicago Bulls (72-10) and the 2015-16 Golden State Warriors (73-9)--the Thunder bring a competitive attitude to every game. The Thunder do not make excuses regarding injuries or playing back to back games or anything else. It is too soon to rank them among the greatest teams of all-time, but it is not too soon to wonder how high they may eventually rank and what kinds of records they may set if they are blessed with reasonable health.

In the second NBA Cup Western Conference quarterfinals matchup, the L.A. Lakers enjoyed homecourt advantage versus the San Antonio Spurs and quickly took a 13-7 first quarter lead, but by the end of the first quarter the Spurs were up 39-30. The Spurs never trailed the rest of the way, and they enjoyed a double digit advantage for the entire second half, feasting on the Lakers' slow-footed, disinterested defense; the Lakers look like the kind of all-offense, no-defense team that loses in the first round of the playoffs, which is the fate that I predicted for them in my Western Conference Preview. Stephon Castle led the Spurs in scoring (30 points), rebounding (10), and assists (six). De'Aaron Fox added 20 points. Luka Doncic poured in a game-high 35 points for the Lakers while dishing for a game-high tying eight assists. Marcus Smart provided a spark off of the bench with 26 points on 9-16 field goal shooting, including 8-14 from beyond the arc. Austin Reaves had a quiet game (15 points, eight rebounds, seven assists) by the lofty standards that he has set for himself so far this season.

LeBron James added 19 points, a game-high 15 rebounds, and a game-high tying eight assists, but his -16 plus/minus number--second worst on the team behind only Jake LaRavia's -25 in just nine minutes of (in)action--indicates how much the Lakers hemorrhaged points on defense when he was in the game. It is remarkable how statistically productive James is at 40 (soon to be 41) years old, but from the standpoint of winning a championship it is fair to ask if he is helping or hurting the Lakers; the Lakers are paying him nearly $50 million per year, and they feel compelled to use a roster spot on his son Bronny, who is averaging 2.0 ppg on .323 field goal shooting this season after averaging 2.3 ppg on .313 field goal shooting as a rookie. 

Doncic is the Lakers' best player, and the roster should be built around him, which means adding bigs who can defend, rebound, and roll to the hoop, and adding wing players who can defend. Even if James accepts being the second option behind Doncic--or possibly even the third option behind Reaves, who entered the game averaging 28.4 ppg on .509 field goal shooting--the Lakers' ability to reshape the roster will be greatly limited as long as they are paying James a max contract while also filling a roster spot with his son, who shows no signs of developing into a rotation-level player. 

In contrast, the Spurs look like a team on the rise; they have a nice mixture of veterans and young players, and they have markedly improved at both ends of the court, displaying better shot selection and more defensive focus than they did last season.

Yes, I realize that the Lakers entered this game with the second best record in the Western Conference, but the eye test reveals that they are a poor defensive team that has stacked up wins against a soft schedule; as the schedule gets tougher, they will drop in the standings. 

In my December 3 NBA Cup article, I picked the Thunder to beat the Suns and I picked the Spurs to beat the Lakers "in a close, high scoring game." I was right about both outcomes, but I did not expect the Spurs to rout the Lakers, particularly without the services of Victor Wembanyama, who is the team's leading scorer (26.2 ppg), rebounder (12.9 rpg), and shot blocker (3.6 bpg); the Spurs' ability to win on the road without Wembanyama speaks volumes about their growth, particularly considering that they had a 14-27 road record last season.

Oklahoma City and San Antonio will play on Saturday December 13 in Las Vegas to earn the right to represent the Western Conference in the NBA Cup Championship Game and face the winner of Saturday's other semifinals matchup featuring New York versus Orlando, the teams that won the NBA Cup Eastern Conference quarterfinals games on Tuesday.  

Labels: Chet Holmgren, De'Aaron Fox, L.A. Lakers, Oklahoma City Thunder, Phoenix Suns, San Antonio Spurs, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Stephon Castle

posted by David Friedman @ 2:33 AM

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Oklahoma City Thunder Outlast Houston Rockets 125-124 in Opening Night Double Overtime Thriller

Hearing John Tesh's "Roundball Rock" as the NBA returned to NBC for the first time since 2002 brought back a flood of nostalgic memories, foremost among them the Chicago Bulls' twin three-peats (1991-93, 1996-98) culminating in the legendary "Last Dance" 1998 championship season. There has been a lot of hype about the revival of the NBA on NBC and, at least on Opening Night, the game lived up to the hype as the 2025 NBA champion Oklahoma City Thunder defeated the Houston Rockets 125-124 in a double overtime battle featuring plenty of drama and plot twists. If this was a Western Conference Finals preview--and it is way too soon to say that it was--then we are in for a treat next May.

Before the game began, the Thunder received their championship rings and raised the first championship banner in Oklahoma City history. The Thunder's rings feature a unique ring within a ring design; championship rings have become so big and gaudy that they are not practical to wear, but each of the Thunder's championship rings contain a smaller ring inside that is personalized for each player and small enough to be worn comfortably.

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, the reigning Finals MVP, regular season MVP, and scoring champion, overcame a slow start to lead the Thunder with 35 points while also grabbing five rebounds, and tying three teammates with a team-high five assists. Chet Holmgren added 28 points and seven rebounds. The Thunder were without the services of 2025 All-NBA Third Team selection Jaylen Williams, who is recovering from offseason surgery on his right (shooting) wrist, but they received an unexpected boost off of the bench as Ajay Mitchell poured in 16 points in just 15 minutes. Cason Wallace contributed 14 points, seven rebounds, and five assists. Isaiah Hartenstein only scored six points, but he had a team-high nine rebounds and five assists. Fan favorite Lu Dort was the other Thunder player with five assists, and he played 45 minutes, second most for the Thunder behind Gilgeous-Alexander's 47.

Alperun Sengun scored a game-high 39 points, snared 11 rebounds, and dished for a game-high seven assists. He often overpowered Alex Caruso in the post, and Caruso--a key defensive player for the Thunder--finished with a game-worst -15 plus/minus number. Kevin Durant had 23 points and nine rebounds in his Houston debut, and he was booed lustily by an Oklahoma City crowd that has not forgiven him for fleeing a championship contending team to join the Golden State Warriors in 2016. Amen Thompson had 18 points, five assists, and four turnovers before leaving the game with a leg injury in the first overtime. He had a team-worst -11 plus/minus number as the starting point guard in place of the injured Fred VanVleet. Thompson is bigger, faster, and more athletic than VanVleet but also not as savvy in terms of running a team and controlling pace. 

The Rockets trotted out the tallest starting lineup since the NBA first tracked starting lineups in the 1970-71 season: Amen Thompson (6-7), Kevin Durant (6-11), Jabari Smith, Jr. (6-11), Alperen Sengun (6-11), and Steven Adams (6-11). Adams, a former Thunder player who the fans cheered when the starting lineups were announced, had a game-high 13 rebounds as the Rockets bludgeoned the Thunder 51-39 on the glass. The modern NBA is supposedly all about playing small, pace and space, and jacking up three pointers, but the Rockets nearly beat last year's champions with a big team despite shooting just 11-39 (.282) from three point range. Losing the turnover battle 21-11 nullified Houston's rebounding advantage, and if the Rockets can clean that up then their defense and rebounding will make them very difficult to beat and very uncomfortable to play against. The Thunder uncharacteristically had five turnovers in the first quarter after leading the league in fewest turnovers per game (11.7) and most turnovers forced per game (17.0) last season, but in the final 46 minutes the Thunder only had six turnovers.

In four full quarters and two overtimes, neither team outscored the other by more than four points in a quarter or an overtime. The Rockets enjoyed a 57-51 halftime lead, using a balanced attack featuring three double figure scorers. Gilgeous-Alexander had just five first half points on 2-5 field goal shooting. NBC's Jamal Crawford made an interesting point near the end of the first half, stating that the Thunder are built for Gilgeous-Alexander to be the leading scorer and look out of sorts when he is not. I have often made a similar point about elite scorers in general, noting that they have a responsibility to score a lot; their high volume shooting is not selfish, but is necessary for their teams to be successful. 

A halftime interview is not usually worth mentioning in a game recap, but most halftime interviews don't feature Michael Jordan, who said that he wishes he could take a "magic pill" to play basketball again, which is reminiscent of remarks he made during his Naismith Memorial Basketball Hall of Fame speech in 2009: 

This is not fun for me. I don't like being up here for the Hall of Fame because at that time your basketball career is completely over. I was hoping this day would be 20 more years, or actually go in when I'm dead and gone. Because now, all along...you always [could] put shorts on and go out and play. Now, when you get into the Hall of Fame, what else is there to do? This is kind of a love-hate thing for me--great accomplishment, great respect that everybody's paying, but for me, I always want to be able to have you thinking that I can always go back and play the game of basketball, put my shorts on. As long as you have that thought, you never know what can happen...Am I? No. But I'd like for you to think that way. Hall of Fame, to me, is like, 'OK, it's over and done with, it's pretty much done, you can't ever put a uniform back on.' It's totally the end of your basketball career. But it's a great accomplishment. I don't walk away from it. But I never envisioned myself really wanting to be up here so quickly. I wanted it to be when I'm 70 years old, 80 years old. I'm 45 and I still think I can play. You guys don't know if I can or can't but at least I've got you thinking that way. 

Jordan told NBC's Mike Tirico that he agreed to be interviewed--NBC plans to show the interview in installments over the next several weeks in an obvious attempt to boost ratings--because he feels an obligation to give back to the game by providing his observations and wisdom about basketball and competition. Jordan made it very clear that he would much rather be playing than talking about playing, and he said that he misses the competition. More than 20 years after he retired, being a basketball player is still a core part of Jordan's identity. This should not surprise anyone who followed Jordan's career, or anyone who gets an adrenaline boost not just from competing but from winning; if you are that kind of person, it is difficult to find anything to replace that feeling. That is what is so fascinating about the direction that Kobe Bryant seemed to be taking as a retired player, because he appeared to find other ways to express himself beyond playing; it is a shame that Bryant's life (and the lives of all of the passengers in that doomed helicopter, including his daughter Gigi) was cut short before he could explore all of those other aspects of life. 

Next week's installment of the Jordan interview will focus on his thoughts about load management and about why it was so important to him to play all 82 regular season games. I don't expect to be surprised by Jordan's thoughts on this topic, but I hope that after Jordan explains why playing every game is important that today's players take his approach to heart.  

The Rockets built a 63-51 lead on Thompson's layup at the 10:13 mark of the third quarter, but by the end of that quarter the Thunder had trimmed the margin to four (79-75), setting up a competitive fourth quarter during which neither team led by more than six points. Durant split a pair of free throws with 9.5 seconds remaining in regulation to put the Rockets up 104-102, leaving the door open for the Thunder to tie or even win. Gilgeous-Alexander, the master of the midrange game that is despised by many "stat gurus" but essential for winning in the playoffs, drilled a pullup jumper to tie the score with 2.6 seconds left. The Rockets called timeout before inbounding the ball to Sengun, who missed a jumper as time expired.

The Thunder jumped out to a 110-104 lead in the first 1:24 of the first overtime, but the Rockets reeled them in and tied the score on Sengun's putback dunk with 8.8 seconds remaining. After Gilgeous-Alexander missed a jumper with 2.2 seconds left, Durant grabbed the rebound and clearly signaled for a timeout. The only problem was that Houston did not have any more timeouts. Had the officials recognized Durant's request with time left on the clock then the Rockets would have been assessed a technical foul and the Thunder would have had a chance to take the lead at the free throw line. However, time just ran out, after which Oklahoma City Thunder coach Mark Daigneault approached the officials and angrily asked why they did not call a technical foul. The NBC crew never got a definitive explanation regarding what happened; play by play announcer Mike Tirico merely noted that the officials had never acknowledged Durant's signal, without questioning how it is possible that an official standing right next to Durant could not have noticed Durant's signal (and, presumably, Durant also verbally requesting a timeout). 

The second overtime was as closely contested as the rest of the game, with neither team leading by more than three points. At the 1:15 mark, Durant drove to the hoop, drew Hartenstein's sixth foul, and hit a shot while he was falling down. Durant made the free throw to put Houston up, 122-120. Gilgeous-Alexander answered with a smooth stepback jumper, and then he split a pair of free throws after Houston turned over the ball. Durant missed a three pointer, but the Rockets retained possession and Durant passed to a cutting Sengun for a layup that put the Rockets up 124-123 with just 11 seconds remaining. Durant guarded Gilgeous-Alexander on the final possession, and played good defense before fouling him with just 2.3 seconds left. Gilgeous-Alexander hit both free throws to provide the final margin.

A Thunder win with Durant fouling out on the play that gave the Thunder the lead is undoubtedly a perfect ending for Oklahoma City fans. Both teams competed hard, and both teams made many nice plays at both ends of the court. My only quibble would be that 67 combined missed three pointers is not efficient basketball no matter what the "stat gurus" say, but teams regularly jacking up 30, 40, 50 or more three pointers appears to be a permanent feature of the sport now. We have all heard that "Three is more than two," but it is worth pointing out that "Two is more than zero," and that 67 possessions in this game ended with zero points on shots from 23 feet, nine inches and beyond. For the modern NBA, though, this was a very high level game, and it was enjoyable to watch.

Anyone who understands the NBA knows that it is foolish to read too much into one game, particularly the first game of a long regular season; after Kareem Abdul-Jabbar hit a game-winning skyhook in rookie Magic Johnson's first NBA game, Johnson celebrated and Abdul-Jabbar casually informed him that there were 81 more games to go (and Johnson told him that if he hits a shot like that 81 more times then he will celebrate 81 more times, but that is a different story). Nevertheless, even though it is way too soon to draw definitive conclusions, we can make a few observations about both teams. The Thunder were sluggish offensively at first, primarily due to Gilgeous-Alexander starting slowly and Williams not being in the lineup, but after they fell behind by double digits they woke up and found a way to win despite not playing their best and not having their second best player. After Williams returns, the Thunder will be much better at both ends of the court. The Rockets' size and physicality challenged the Thunder, and will challenge most teams in the league. Sengun looked as good as he has ever looked even though the Rockets lack a true point guard and are still figuring out how to fully integrate Durant into the offense (he had just nine points after halftime). It will be very interesting to assess both of these teams after a larger sample size of games.

Labels: Alperun Sengun, Amen Thompson, Chet Holmgren, Houston Rockets, Kevin Durant, NBA, NBC, Oklahoma City Thunder, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander

posted by David Friedman @ 2:20 AM

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Thunder Outlast Pacers to Win Game Seven, 103-91

The Oklahoma City Thunder outscored the Indiana Pacers 56-43 in the second half, transforming a one point halftime deficit into a 103-91 game seven win to capture the NBA championship. The Pacers outrebounded the Thunder 45-40 and shot slightly more efficiently from the field, but the Thunder attacked Pacers' ballhandlers on the perimeter and took advantage of extra possessions by scoring in the paint; the Thunder forced 23 turnovers that they converted into 32 points while committing just eight turnovers that the Pacers converted into 10 points, and the Thunder outscored the Pacers in the paint, 40-26.

As is often the case in game seven showdowns, two high octane offenses struggled to score efficiently. The Thunder averaged 120.5 ppg in the regular season while posting a 68-14 record with the best point differential in NBA history (12.9 ppg), but in game seven they barely cracked the 100 point barrier while shooting 35-87 (.402) from the field, including 11-40 (.275) from three point range; the Pacers averaged 117.4 ppg in the regular season while ranking third in field goal percentage (.488), but in game seven they fell well short of 100 points while shooting 29-70 (.414) from the field, including 11-28 (.393) from beyond the arc. 

Three point shooting is supposed to be of paramount importance in today's NBA, but the Thunder took the title despite shooting 71-206 (.345) from three point range in the NBA Finals. Defense, rebounding, and paint presence are often the most important factors in game seven, which is why the 1998 Chicago Bulls beat the Indiana Pacers in game seven of the Eastern Conference Finals despite Michael Jordan shooting 9-25 from the field and why the 2010 L.A. Lakers beat the Boston Celtics in game seven of the NBA Finals despite Kobe Bryant shooting 6-24 from the field. A team that defends well and plays hard can survive a poor individual shooting performance by a star.

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander scored a game-high 29 points, dished for a game-high/playoff career-high 12 assists, grabbed five rebounds, blocked two shots, and had just one turnover. He shot 8-27 from the field, but his scoring and playmaking accounted for more than half of the Thunder's points. By continuing to shoot even though his field goal percentage was not great, Gilgeous-Alexander put pressure on the Pacers' defense; the worst thing for a team in a big game is not when the team's star shoots 8-27, but rather when he shoots 4-14, because a passive star player is much easier to guard than an active star player: when a star player aggressively attacks the defense that forces the defense to react by sending help, which opens up scoring opportunities and offensive rebounding opportunities for the star's teammates, secondary but important effects that are not tracked well or even understood by many "stat gurus" who focus on what they define as "efficiency" without giving sufficient consideration to other factors. 

During the NBA Finals, Gilgeous-Alexander averaged 30.3 ppg, 4.6 rpg, 5.6 apg, 1.9 spg, and 1.6 bpg with shooting splits of .443/.242/.914, earning the Bill Russell NBA Finals MVP and becoming the first player to win the scoring title, regular season MVP, and NBA Finals MVP in the same season since Shaquille O'Neal (2000). He is just the fourth player in NBA history to win the scoring title, regular season MVP, and the championship in the same season, joining Kareem Abdul-Jabbar (1971), Michael Jordan (1991-92, 1996, 1998), and Shaquille O'Neal (2000).

Jalen Williams shot poorly from the field (7-20), but he made critical contributions with 20 points, four rebounds, four assists, two steals, and just one turnover. He had a game-best +13 plus/minus number. Chet Holmgren anchored the defense in the paint, setting an NBA Finals game seven record with five blocked shots while also scoring 18 points on 6-8 field goal shooting and grabbing eight rebounds. The Thunder improved to 3-1 in this series with Isaiah Hartenstein in the starting lineup; he had seven points, a team-high nine rebounds, and four assists. Gilgeous-Alexander, Williams, and Hartenstein were the only three Thunder players who had an assist. Alex Caruso and Cason Wallace each scored 10 points off of the bench.

The biggest story for the Pacers was that Tyrese Haliburton, the team's primary playmaker and clutch shot maker, fell to the court with a non-contact lower right leg injury at the 4:55 mark of the first quarter and was unable to play the rest of the way. He had already scored nine points on 3-5 field goal shooting, and even though the Thunder led 18-16 when Haliburton left the game it is fair to wonder how the game might have proceeded if Haliburton had stayed healthy. Haliburton's injury not only impacted game seven and this series but it could have implications for the balance of power in the Eastern Conference if he misses most or all of next season.

Bennedict Mathurin stepped up in Haliburton's absence, scoring a team-high 24 points and grabbing a game-high 13 rebounds in 33 minutes off of the bench. Pascal Siakam added 16 points but shot just 5-13 from the field. T.J. McConnell contributed 16 points on 8-13 field goal shooting in 28 minutes off of the bench, but he also had a game-high seven turnovers; he scored 12 points on 6-7 field goal shooting in eight minutes in the third quarter, but had just four points on 2-6 field goal shooting in his other 20 minutes of action, which highlights a point that I made in my game five recap: just because a bench player has a brief productive stretch that does not mean that if his playing time is extended he will continue to score at that same per minute rate; there are reasons that bench players are bench players and starters are starters, including conditioning, and ability to match up with various players/defensive schemes.

The Pacers took an 11-6 lead to start the game in a closely contested first quarter featuring three lead changes and four ties with neither team leading by more than five points. After Haliburton's injury, the Pacers seemed to be inspired while the Thunder seemed to be complacent and tentative. The Pacers outscored the Thunder 26-22 in the second quarter to build a slim 48-47 halftime edge as the Thunder shot 4-18 (.222) from three point range in the first half.

In the third quarter, the Thunder ramped up the defensive pressure--forcing eight turnovers that they converted into 18 points--while not committing a single turnover, and shooting a respectable 5-13 (.385) from beyond the arc. The Pacers were still behind by just four points, 70-66, at the 3:54 mark of the third quarter, but the Thunder closed that stanza with an 11-2 run to enter the fourth quarter with an 81-68 lead. McConnell scored the Pacers' final 12 third quarter points, but down the stretch in the third quarter it became evident that the Pacers could not deal with the Thunder's defensive pressure.  

The Thunder led by as many as 22 points in the fourth quarter before the Pacers made one final push to slash the margin to 96-86 with 2:16 remaining, but the Thunder went on a 6-1 burst to remove any doubt; the Pacers may be the comeback kings, but the Thunder are a historically dominant team, particularly at home: the Thunder set a single season playoff record with a +259 point differential at home, and their only two home playoff losses--game one of the NBA Finals versus Indiana, and game one in the second round versus Denver--were on buzzer beaters. With this win, the Thunder improved to 19-2 after a loss (regular season and playoffs combined), the best such single season mark in NBA history.

The Thunder went 84-21 overall during the regular season and playoffs combined, tied with the 1996-97 Chicago Bulls (84-17) for the third most wins all-time, trailing only the 2015-16 Golden State Warriors (88-18, but lost in the NBA Finals), and the 1995-96 Chicago Bulls (87-13). It should be noted that the NBA expanded the playoff format in 1983-84 (adding a best of five first round series to the three existing best of seven series) and in 2002-03 (extending the first round from best of five to best of seven), so before those years teams did not have the same opportunities to win 84-plus games. The Thunder are the second youngest team to win an NBA title, trailing only the 1977 Portland Trail Blazers--a squad that provides a cautionary tale, as they never returned to the NBA Finals after injuries ended Bill Walton's brief tenure as the sport's best player. On paper, it looks like the Thunder are well positioned to contend for championships for the next several years, but in practice it is very difficult for a team to win multiple titles; there have been just four repeat champions since the Michael Jordan-Scottie Pippen Chicago Bulls notched a pair of three-peats in the 1990s: the 2000-02 L.A. Lakers, the 2009-10 L.A. Lakers, the 2012-13 Miami Heat, and the 2017-18 Golden State Warriors.

Labels: Bennedict Mathurin, Chet Holmgren, Indiana Pacers, Jalen Williams, Oklahoma City Thunder, Pascal Siakam, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, T.J. McConnell, Tyrese Haliburton

posted by David Friedman @ 10:07 AM

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