20 Second Timeout

Thunder Muzzle Wolves to Advance to the NBA Finals for the First Time Since 2012

The Oklahoma City Thunder outscored the Minnesota Timberwolves 26-9 in the first quarter and built a 39 point second half lead en route to a 124-94 win to clinch the Western Conference Finals, 4-1. The Thunder received the Oscar Robertson Trophy for winning the Western Conference Championship after shooting 46-88 (.523) from the field while limiting the Timberwolves to 35-85 (.412) field goal shooting. The Thunder also outrebounded the Timberwolves 46-39. The official fast break numbers were 19-11 in favor of the Thunder, but it seemed like the Thunder had an even more substantial edge in that category. At times, it looked like the Thunder were playing six on five as they had 14 steals and converted 21 turnovers into 18 points; at halftime, the Timberwolves had 14 turnovers and 12 field goals made, a rare team "Harden" (more turnovers than field goals made). 

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander scored a game-high 34 points on 14-25 field goal shooting while passing for a game-high eight assists, grabbing seven rebounds, and committing just two turnovers. He was one of five Thunder players who had plus/minus numbers of at least +21. The Thunder's first quarter domination was largely a product of Gilgeous-Alexander's high level scoring and playmaking, as he scored or assisted on 24 first quarter points: he scored 12 points on 5-7 field goal shooting, and he had three assists to Chet Holmgren (one three pointer, two dunks), one assist to Isaiah Hartenstein (dunk), and one assist to Cason Wallace for a three pointer just before the buzzer. Gilgeous-Alexander averaged 31.4 ppg, 8.2 apg, and 5.2 rpg during the series with shooting splits of .457/.318/.863 to earn the Magic Johnson Western Conference Finals MVP, joining a club that includes Stephen Curry (2022), Nikola Jokic (2023), and Luka Doncic (2024). 

In addition to Gilgeous-Alexander's individual brilliance, the Thunder are distinguished by their unrelenting defensive pressure, the athleticism throughout their roster, and their overall depth. Holmgren had 22 points, seven rebounds, and a game-high tying three blocked shots. Jalen Williams played a solid all-around game (19 points, game-high eight rebounds, five assists). Lu Dort scored 12 points and had his usual tremendous impact defensively, Isaiah Joe led the bench brigade with 11 points, and Alex Caruso was a menace on defense with a game-high four steals plus numerous deflections and general disruptiveness. The offseason additions of Caruso and Isaiah Hartenstein (eight points, five rebounds, two blocked shots in 17 minutes) helped the Thunder improve from being a very good team to being a dominant team.

The Timberwolves looked overwhelmed and frustrated. Anthony Edwards insists that he does not want to be the face of the NBA, and perhaps he should not be considered for that subjective title after scoring just 19 points on 7-18 field goal shooting with a game-worst -29 plus/minus number. He averaged 23.0 ppg, 7.4 rpg, and 4.6 apg during the series with shooting splits of .471/.282/.688. Edwards had two 30 point games during this series, and the Timberwolves went 1-1 in those contests, but he also had three games with less than 20 points, all three of which the Timberwolves lost. 

In the postgame press conference after game five, Edwards scoffed at the notion that being eliminated from the Western Conference Finals in five games for the second year in a row should hurt: "I don't know why people would think it would hurt. It's exciting for me. I'm 23. I get to do it a whole bunch of times. I'm hurt more so for [teammate] Mike [Conley]. I came up short for Mike. We tried last year, we couldn't get it. We tried again this year. We'll try again next year. But hurt is a terrible word to use. I'm good." Edwards should be careful about asserting that he will reach the Western Conference Finals "a whole bunch of times"; nothing is promised, and a lot can change for players and teams in a short period of time. Perhaps a mental health professional would say that Edwards has a mature response to losing, but I would argue that Edwards' attitude is not what one would expect from a champion or a potential champion. Michael Jordan and Kobe Bryant agonized after every season when they failed to win a title; again, maybe that is not the healthiest approach or the approach that a "normal" person might have, but perhaps champions are not "normal." There is a difference between winners and champions. Just making it to the NBA means that you are a winner--but very few NBA players become champions, and even fewer become the best player on a championship team. To become a champion, you have to feel at least a little hurt when you fall short. Maybe Edwards feels hurt but is too prideful to admit that publicly. By no means am I suggesting that he is not capable of leading a team to a title; he is too talented to write off at this early stage of his career. However, there are reasons to wonder about him based on how he plays and some of the things that he says. Edwards has had some great playoff performances, but he has also been outplayed by the other team's star in back to back Western Conference Finals, and those stars are young--Luka Doncic and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander--so Edwards will have to figure out how to beat his peers to win a championship; he is not in position to just inherit the top spot from older stars such as LeBron James, Kevin Durant, and Stephen Curry.

Julius Randle had 24 points on 8-14 field goal shooting plus five rebounds and three assists. Naz Reid added 11 points on 5-6 field goal shooting and a game-high tying three blocked shots in 24 minutes off of the bench. Terrence Shannon Jr. scored 11 points in 16 minutes off of the bench, and after the game Coach Chris Finch conceded that next season he may lengthen the rotation to give his young bench players more opportunities to contribute. 

The Timberwolves are a very good team, but not quite good enough to win a championship. It is interesting to note that their roster was built by Tim Connelly to beat the Denver Nuggets, whose roster Connelly built before coming to Minnesota. The Timberwolves defeated the Nuggets in the 2024 NBA playoffs, but this year the Timberwolves faced a Thunder team that eliminated the Nuggets, so it appears that Connelly may have to tweak his roster to deal with the Thunder's speed and defensive pressure, in contrast to the size and physicality that he assembled to attack Denver's big frontcourt.

The Thunder have reached the NBA Finals for the first time since 2012, when their young Kevin Durant-Russell Westbrook-James Harden trio lost 4-1 to the Miami Heat's "Big Three" of LeBron James, Dwyane Wade, and Chris Bosh. The Thunder look like a team that could be a contender for several years, but the 2012 Thunder represent a cautionary tale (and a tale that should be heeded by Edwards as well): that group never reached the NBA Finals again, with Harden fleeing for Houston after the 2012 NBA Finals run and then Durant joining Golden State's powerhouse team in 2016.

Labels: Alex Caruso, Anthony Edwards, Jalen Williams, Julius Randle, Minnesota Timberwolves, Oklahoma City Thunder, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander

posted by David Friedman @ 11:49 AM

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Thunder's Stars Outshine Timberwolves' Stars in Tightly Contested Game Four

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander scored a playoff career-high 40 points and Jalen William added a playoff career-high 34 points as the Oklahoma City Thunder outlasted the Minnesota Timberwolves 128-126 to take a 3-1 lead in the Western Conference Finals. Sports in general are very strategic, and basketball in particular is a game in which the smart take from the strong, but sometimes the game is simple: a team whose stars dominate has a great chance to win. Chet Holmgren, the Thunder's third option, scored as many points (21) as Minnesota's Anthony Edwards (16) and Julius Randle (five) combined.

Gilgeous-Alexander also had a game-high 10 assists, and a game-high tying nine rebounds. He did not shoot very efficiently (13-30, .433) and he had a game-high tying five turnovers, but--as we saw with Michael Jordan and Kobe Bryant--a team's best player has the responsibility to take a lot of shots because he will not only score but he will also attract defensive attention (only called "gravity" when Stephen Curry does it) that opens up opportunities for his teammates. One of the most impressive obscure statistics in pro basketball history is that Michael Jordan scored at least 20 points in 35 consecutive NBA Finals games. Jordan regularly faced double teams and triple teams, and he learned to pass the ball when necessary--but he always understood his responsibility to put up big scoring totals in every game, particularly in playoff games and NBA Finals games. Julius Erving scored at least 20 points in 26 straight Finals games (his last seven in the ABA and his first 19 in the NBA), and he scored at least 20 points in 31 of his 33 Finals games overall (10/11 in the ABA, 21/22 in the NBA). Jerry West ranks third with 25 straight NBA Finals games with at least 20 points.

Nickeil Alexander-Walker led the Timberwolves with 23 points, Jaden McDaniels scored 22 points, Donte DiVincenzo added 21 points, and Rudy Gobert contributed 13 points plus a game-high tying nine rebounds, but the problem is not just that Edwards only had 16 points in a de facto elimination game; the problem is that Edwards shot 5-13 from the field--and the low number of field goal attempts is at least as concerning as the poor field goal percentage, for the reason mentioned above: a team's best player must force the action at times. It sounds great to talk about "making the right play," but often the right play is attacking the opposing defense until it breaks; passively accepting a double team and then making a pass that does not threaten the defense is not "the right play," nor is it a winning play. Edwards and Randle each committed five turnovers, and Randle shot just 1-7 from the field; those numbers do not point to making the right play: they point to being tentative, indecisive, and careless with the ball. 

After Minnesota won game three 143-101 a lot was said about a momentum shift in this series. How much momentum carried over into game four? None. Momentum is something that talking heads mention in lieu of analyzing basketball strategy and matchups. In game three, Minnesota was the more aggressive team at both ends of the court, while Oklahoma City looked like a team that had relaxed after taking a 2-0 series lead. In contrast, the Thunder led 37-30 at the end of the first quarter of game four, scoring almost as many points in the first 12 minutes as they scored in the first 24 minutes of game three (41)--and the stars led the way, with Gilgeous-Alexander and Williams scoring 13 first quarter points each. The Timberwolves briefly led in the first quarter, but never by more than two points, and they did not lead at all in the final three quarters; the game remained close throughout--the Thunder's largest lead was only 11 points--but the outcome was never in serious doubt, because a team whose stars play passively throughout the game is not often rewarded with a win by the basketball gods.

Opposing fans call Gilgeous-Alexander a "foul merchant," which is an odd phrase. Is he being accused of selling fouls or buying fouls? Gilgeous-Alexander is not James Harden flopping and flailing while looking for bailout calls. Gilgeous-Alexander is aggressive, which all great offensive players are--and aggressive players draw fouls, which not only leads to free throws but also puts the opposing team in foul trouble. Edwards and Randle would be well-advised to match that level of aggressiveness to have any chance of extending this series beyond game five in Oklahoma City.

Labels: Anthony Edwards, Jalen Williams, Julius Randle, Minnesota Timberwolves, Oklahoma City Thunder, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander

posted by David Friedman @ 1:02 AM

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Timberwolves Roll Over Thunder, 143-101

The Oklahoma City Thunder can cancel the coronation and the parade, at least for now--after convincingly taking a 2-0 Western Conference Finals lead versus the Minnesota Timberwolves, the Thunder suffered a historic loss in game three as the Timberwolves led by as much as 45 points before prevailing, 143-101. The Timberwolves led 72-41 at halftime, setting a franchise playoff record for most points in a half and tying the third largest halftime lead in a Conference Finals game since 1971. They also set the franchise record for most points in a playoff game, and broke the NBA record for largest victory margin in any game--regular season or playoffs--versus a team that won 65 or more games that season. This was the worst playoff loss in Thunder history, and the second biggest playoff win in Timberwolves history.

The Thunder opened the game with a 4-0 run before the Timberwolves hit them with an avalanche, storming to a 34-14 lead by the end of the first quarter. The 68-33 score late in the second quarter looked like a typographical error. The Thunder opened the third quarter with an 11-2 run, but the Timberwolves called a timeout and then answered with a 23-4 burst to put the game away. One of the ways that the Thunder dominate teams is by forcing more turnovers than they commit, and then transforming many of those turnovers into fast break points, but in this game the Timberwolves committed just 10 turnovers leading to 15 points while forcing 14 turnovers resulting in 16 points. 

Anthony Edwards scored a game-high 30 points in just under 30 minutes while also leading both teams in rebounding (nine) and assists (six). Julius Randle bounced back from an awful game two, scoring 24 points on 9-15 field goal shooting. Terrence Shannon Jr. scored 15 points off of the bench in just 13 minutes; it is safe to assume that he did not receive much attention in the Thunder's scouting report, but he had nine of his points in the second quarter to help the Timberwolves blow the game open.

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, the NBA's regular season MVP and scoring champion, led the Thunder with just 14 points and a game-high tying six assists. Ajay Mitchell scored all 14 of his points in fourth quarter garbage time minutes. Jalen Williams had 13 points.

ESPN's Mike Breen correctly noted that the team that eventually wins the NBA championship sometimes has a blowout loss during their title run, and he said that in the moment that the blowout loss happens it is "shocking." One example that I remember from my childhood is the dominant 1982 L.A. Lakers who went 12-2 in the playoffs, including a 9-0 start after winning their final three regular season games. The Lakers did not lose a game from April 13-May 30 before Julius Erving's Philadelphia 76ers beat them 110-94 in game two of the NBA Finals; after the Lakers defeated the 76ers by 21 and 10 in the next two games they got blasted 135-102 before capturing the title with a 114-104 game six win as Magic Johnson logged a 13-13-13 triple double to win his second NBA Finals MVP in the first three seasons of his career. Losing a blowout does not guarantee winning a championship, of course; the point is that a blowout loss is not necessarily a sign that a team cannot or will not win a championship.

This game is a great reminder of how difficult it is for even a dominant team to sweep a best of seven playoff series, and it brought to mind the question of how often some of the greatest players of all-time won in sweeps (and how often they were swept). I looked up the playoff records of four members of my basketball Pantheon, choosing a dominant player who started his career in the 1970s (Julius Erving), the 1980s (Michael Jordan), the 1990s (Kobe Bryant), and the 2000s (LeBron James).

Julius Erving posted a 24-13 career playoff series record while winning three championships. He logged six sweeps in best of seven series (including the 1983 NBA Finals, the first NBA Finals sweep since 1975), and his teams were never swept (he had four 2-0 sweeps and was never swept 2-0). Michael Jordan had a 30-7 career playoff series record while winning six championships. He had three sweeps in best of seven series and was never swept in a best of seven series (he had six 3-0 sweeps and lost 3-0 twice). Kobe Bryant had a 33-10 career playoff series record while winning five championships. Bryant had five sweeps in best of seven series and he was swept three times in best of seven series (he also had two 3-0 sweeps and was never swept 3-0). LeBron James has a 41-14 career playoff series record while winning four championships. James has 12 sweeps in best of seven series and he was swept three times in best of seven series, including twice in the NBA Finals.

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is just a babe in the NBA playoff woods. He has a 3-3 career playoff series record, including two sweeps in best of seven series; he has never been swept, and his teams have won at least two games in all seven of his playoff series (including the 2025 Western Conference Finals, with his Thunder currently leading 2-1). It will be interesting to watch those numbers over the next decade or so. Anthony Edwards has a 3-4 career playoff series record with one sweep and no times being swept. We will find out soon enough if Edwards' Timberwolves will make this a competitive series by winning game four, or if they will be content to avoid being swept.

Labels: Anthony Edwards, Jalen Williams, Julius Randle, Minnesota Timberwolves, Oklahoma City Thunder, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander

posted by David Friedman @ 1:02 AM

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Thunder Rout Timberwolves After Shai Gilgeous-Alexander Receives MVP Trophy

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander received his 2025 NBA regular season MVP trophy prior to game two of the Western Conference Finals, and then he reminded everyone why he deserved the award: he scored a game-high/playoff career-high tying 38 points on 12-21 field goal shooting while leading the Oklahoma City Thunder to a 118-103 win over the Minnesota Timberwolves to take a 2-0 series lead. ESPN's Tim Legler said that not all 2-0 leads are created equal, adding that this one feels "heavier" than others--and that is an apt way of describing how outmatched the Timberwolves appear to be. Maybe the Timberwolves will find a way to win game three at home, but it is an understatement to say that beating the Thunder is a daunting task.

Gilgeous-Alexander not only scored prolifically and efficiently, but he also had a game-high eight assists while committing just one turnover as the Thunder again dominated the possession game: the Thunder scored 22 points off of 14 Timberwolves turnovers while giving up just 10 points off of their eight turnovers. Jalen Williams had 26 points, a game-high 10 rebounds, and five assists. Chet Holmgren added 22 points, many of them on strong cuts to the hoop. 

Anthony Edwards led Minnesota in scoring (32 points), rebounding (nine), and assists (six), but he did not have enough help. Jaden McDaniels scored 22 points and Nickeil Alexander-Walker added 17 points off of the bench, but Julius Randle had such a miserable game (six points on 2-11 field goal shooting) that he was benched for the entire fourth quarter.

The Thunder held the Timberwolves to 36-87 (.414) field goal shooting, including 11-39 (.282) from beyond the arc. The Thunder have a host of elite defensive players, led by Lu Dort-- who just earned his first All-Defensive Team selection--and Jalen Williams, a first-time All-Star in 2025 who also just earned his first All-Defensive Team selection. Alex Caruso made the All-Defensive Team each of the previous two seasons but did not qualify for selection this season because he only played in 54 regular season games.

This was not quite a wire to wire win--Minnesota briefly held two point and one point leads during the first half--but the Thunder led for most of this game, including the entire second half. The Timberwolves trailed 58-50 at halftime, a deficit that looked manageable, and they cut the margin to four a couple times before the Thunder closed the third quarter with a 23-7 run to lead 93-71 heading into the final stanza. The Thunder led by double digits for the entire fourth quarter.

Through the first two games of this series, the Thunder's athleticism and relentless defensive pressure have overwhelmed the Timberwolves, and the Timberwolves have not effectively used the size and physicality that helped them win playoff series versus the L.A. Lakers and Golden State Warriors. Julius Randle excelled in game one but disappeared in game two, while Anthony Edwards had a subpar game one by his lofty standards before playing well in game two. The young Thunder sometimes seem to be jittery at the start of games, but they generally calm down quickly before asserting their dominance in the third quarter. The Timberwolves will need to get outstanding performances from both Edwards and Randle plus more contributions from the supporting cast to win game three.

Labels: Anthony Edwards, Jalen Williams, Julius Randle, Minnesota Timberwolves, Oklahoma City Thunder, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander

posted by David Friedman @ 11:19 AM

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Thunder Storm Past Timberwolves 114-88 in Game One of the Western Conference Finals

The Oklahoma City Thunder are not infallible, but they may be unbeatable--at least in a seven game series. The Minnesota Timberwolves led the Thunder 47-38 with 1:14 remaining in the second quarter of game one of the Western Conference Finals, but the Thunder won 114-88; that is a 35 point swing in a little over 24 minutes. This game was very much a tale of two halves: the Timberwolves won the first half 48-44, and then the Thunder won the second half 70-40. The overall numbers told a story of Thunder domination, as the Thunder outscored the Timberwolves 54-20 in the paint, 31-10 in points off of turnovers, and 12-0 in fast break points. The Thunder shot 41-82 (.500) from the field while holding the Timberwolves to 29-83 (.349) field goal shooting. 

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander personified how the Thunder performed: he scored 11 first half points on 2-13 field goal shooting, and then poured in 20 second half points on 8-14 field goal shooting. He ended up with a game-high 31 points on 10-27 field goal shooting along with a game-high nine assists plus five rebounds and three steals. A "stat guru" may not understand why not all 10-27 shooting performances are created equal, but there is a difference between forcing shots/taking bad shots and missing good shots before getting into a rhythm. It is also worth emphasizing that Gilgeous-Alexander attempted 14 free throws and just four three pointers; he is a master of the supposedly inefficient midrange game, which is the area that Michael Jordan and Kobe Bryant dominated en route to winning six championships and five championships respectively. In the playoffs, a star player cannot always get to the hoop and he should not rely too heavily on high variance three point shooting: the midrange area is very important for winning playoff games.

Gilgeous-Alexander's All-Star sidekick Jalen Williams contributed 19 points, eight rebounds, five assists, and five steals. Chet Holmgren (15 points on 6-9 field goal shooting, seven rebounds, two blocked shots) and Isaiah Hartenstein (12 points on 6-8 field goal shooting, five rebounds) held up well versus Minnesota's big and aggressive frontcourt. Cason Wallace (three points, seven assists), Alex Caruso (nine points), and Isaiah Joe (seven points, eight rebounds) made solid contributions off of the bench.

Julius Randle scored 20 first half points on 6-8 field goal shooting (including 5-6 from beyond the arc), but in the second half the Thunder ran him off of the three point line (he did not attempt even one second half trey) while holding him to eight points on 3-5 field goal shooting. His 28 points on 9-13 field goal shooting look more "efficient" than Gilgeous-Alexander's, but Bill Russell once sagely noted that when a player scores can be as important as how much he scores; he was referring specifically to Julius Erving's uncanny ability to score timely baskets, but this wisdom has broader applications, even though "stat gurus" will insist that a basket scored in the first minute of a game, a basket scored at the end of a 20 point blowout, and a basket scored in the closing seconds of a game when trailing by one point all have the same value. If you played the game or even just understand the game at anything more than the most basic level then you know that all baskets don't have the same value, and you know that there are many players who will happily attempt the first two kinds of shots but want no part of attempting a shot when trailing in the closing seconds of a game.

Anthony Edwards was Minnesota's only other double figure scorer (18 points on 5-13 field goal shooting, game-high nine rebounds), and after the game he candidly admitted that he did not shoot the ball often enough. From a percentage standpoint, Edwards' 5-13 field goal shooting and Gilgeous-Alexander's 10-27 field goal shooting are virtually identical, but the reality of championship level basketball is that a team's star player has an obligation to be productive even more so than he has an obligation to be "efficient." Edwards is right that he should have shot more often, and he deserves credit for admitting that, as opposed to some stars who use passive/aggressive language to deflect attention away from their flawed performances and toward their teammates' real or imagined shortcomings. It is the star's responsibility to lead the way; that is why the stars get the big bucks and most of the credit when things go well. 

The Timberwolves are at their best when they attack the paint, but they played an out of character game by attempting 51 three point shots and only 32 two point shots; such a drastic imbalance is not a recipe for success for any team, and particularly not a team whose strength is its size and strength. The Timberwolves went small in the fourth quarter--center Rudy Gobert did not play at all--and the Thunder outscored them, 38-22. Going small against a team that feeds off of turnovers and open court play did not go well and will not go well. The simple fact is that teams that play small ball do not win NBA titles. Even the Golden State Warriors teams that won four NBA titles from 2015-22 had serviceable big men who played consistent rotation minutes, not to mention that the "small forward" on two of their championship teams is actually seven feet tall.

It is not likely--although not impossible--that the Thunder will win every game by double digit margins, but it seems improbable that any team in the NBA can win four games out of seven versus the Thunder. Their season-long statistical profile screams "NBA Champion," and the eye test suggests that only one of the great teams from the past could withstand the combination of the Thunder's relentless defensive pressure and efficient offensive execution that does not rely on jacking up three pointers. 

Labels: Anthony Edwards, Jalen Williams, Julius Randle, Minnesota Timberwolves, Oklahoma City Thunder, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander

posted by David Friedman @ 1:16 AM

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Oklahoma City Versus Minnesota Preview

Western Conference Finals

#1 Oklahoma City (68-14) vs. #6 Minnesota (49-33)

Season series: Tied, 2-2

Minnesota can win if… Anthony Edwards is the best player in the series, if the Timberwolves control the paint, and if the Timberwolves are not careless with the ball.

Edwards averaged a team-high 26.2 ppg, 7.6 rpg (second on the team), and 5.6 apg (second on the team) in Minnesota's 4-1 second round series win versus the Golden State Warriors. Julius Randle also had an outstanding series versus the Warriors, leading the team in assists (7.4 apg) while ranking second in scoring (25.2 ppg) and third in rebounding (6.6 rpg). A lot of nonsense is spouted about why the Timberwolves should reduce Rudy Gobert's role, but Gobert dominated the paint against the Warriors, averaging 9.6 ppg on .643 field goal shooting while leading Minnesota in rebounding (9.4 rpg) and blocked shots (1.8 bpg).

The Timberwolves are a big, physical team, so it is not surprising that they rank second in the playoffs in points allowed (101.1 ppg) and fourth in defensive field goal percentage (.433). Gobert anchors the defense in the paint, while Jaden McDaniels is a stopper on the wing. Donte DiVincenzo (team-high 1.7 spg in the playoffs) and Edwards are good defenders, and veteran point guard Mike Conley is a savvy player at both ends of the court.

The Timberwolves reached the Western Conference Finals last year by knocking off the defending NBA champion Denver Nuggets, so it should not be surprising that they are in the Western Conference Finals again--but they had a .500 record (17-17) on January 4, and that sluggish start may have made a lasting impression on commentators even though the Timberwolves went 8-1 to end the season. I count myself among those who underestimated them before the playoffs began.

They have committed the fifth most turnovers per game (14.8) among this year's 16 playoff teams; the four teams that committed more turnovers per game--Memphis, Detroit, Miami, and Denver--have been eliminated, with all but Denver losing in the first round. Poor decision making in general and careless ballhandling in particular are two major areas of concern for Minnesota. The Timberwolves rank fourth in playoff field goal percentage (.465) and sixth in scoring (108.2 ppg), so when they take care of the ball they score very efficiently. 

Oklahoma City will win because…the Thunder are more talented, deeper, more athletic, and more efficient.

The skepticism about the Thunder is increasingly difficult to understand: they have a great player who is unselfish and plays at a high level on offense and on defense, they have a talented and well-balanced starting lineup, and they may have the league's deepest bench. They posted one of the best regular season records in NBA history (68-14) and set the all-time record for point differential (12.9 ppg), breaking a mark (12.3 ppg) held by the legendary 1971-72 L.A. Lakers team that featured Hall of Famers Wilt Chamberlain, Jerry West, and Gail Goodrich.

The Denver Nuggets fought valiantly to push the Thunder to seven games in the second round, but the
Thunder overwhelmed the Nuggets 125-93 in game seven. During that series, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander led the Thunder in minutes (37.6 mpg), scoring (29.7 ppg), and assists (6.6 apg) while also averaging 6.4 rpg (third on the team), 1.6 spg (tied for second on the team), and .6 bpg (tied for fourth on the team). His shooting splits were .529/.333/.825. Last season, he finished second in regular season MVP voting to three-time MVP Nikola Jokic, and it is reasonable to believe that he will finish first ahead of Jokic this season. Gilgeous-Alexander is not flashy--his game does not feature an abundance of dunks, three pointers, or fancy moves--but his game is brutally efficient and fundamentally sound at both ends of the court. The Thunder appear to have exquisite team chemistry, and as the team's best player and unquestioned leader Gilgeous-Alexander deserves a lot of credit for that.

In 2025, Jalen Williams made the All-Star team for the first time, and he set career-highs in scoring (21.6 ppg), rebounding (5.3 rpg), and assists (5.1 apg). He has been inconsistent during the playoffs, with scoring totals ranging from 6 to 32, but overall he has been productive, ranking second on the team in scoring (19.6 ppg) and assists (5.7 apg) while ranking fourth in rebounding (5.4 rpg). The Thunder will need for him to score 20-plus ppg versus the Timberwolves. 

The rail-thin Chet Holmgren is the Thunder's third leading playoff scorer (15.7 ppg), and he leads the team in rebounding (9.7 rpg) and blocked shots (2.2 bpg). The big and rugged Isaiah Hartenstein leads the team in playoff field goal percentage (.605) while also ranking second in rebounding (8.7 rpg) and fourth in assists (2.8 apg); he is not only a lob threat at the rim but he can also run the offense at times from the high post, passing to cutters. 

Alex Caruso is the Thunder's oldest player (31 years old) and the only player on the team with championship experience. He is a feisty and smart defensive player who leads the team in playoff steals (1.8 spg) while also shooting .417 from three point range. His scrappy post defense versus Jokic in game seven contributed to the Thunder run that broke the game open.

Other things to consider: In my 2024 Western Conference Finals Preview, I praised the way that the Timberwolves constructed their team:

While other franchises try to "tank to the top" or assemble "super teams," the Timberwolves built their roster organically. Tim Connelly, who laid the foundation of the Denver Nuggets' championship success before becoming Minnesota's President of Basketball Operations, assembled the Timberwolves' roster with the understanding that size matters in the NBA at both ends of the court. "Stat gurus" mocked Connelly's trade for Rudy Gobert, but Connelly did not panic after the Timberwolves lost 4-1 to the Denver Nuggets in the 2023 playoffs. Connelly ignored the noise about Gobert being unplayable in today's "pace and space" NBA--noise that could still be heard during the second round of this year's playoffs before the Timberwolves won games six and seven to send the Nuggets home for the summer. 

In contrast, the Thunder tanked for two seasons (2020-22). Historically, it has been proven that tanking does not work, so if the Thunder cap their tremendous season with a championship then they will be the first NBA team to "tank to the top" (the premature and inaccurate description applied to Philadelphia's disastrous tanking)--but what the Thunder did differs from what most other tanking teams did because the Thunder did not embrace tanking and denied (and still deny) that they ever tanked; it could be argued that this is a distinction without a difference, but one of the problems with tanking is that it infects a franchise with a losing culture by accepting the notion that trying to win every game does not matter. The 76ers embraced what they called "The Process," and their franchise still displays a losing mentality on and off of the court, as demonstrated by--among other things--load management, and key players not being in peak condition. In contrast, the Thunder made personnel moves that strongly suggested that they were tanking but those moves could also be interpreted as their attempt to build the best roster around budding young star Gilgeous-Alexander. There is no doubt that Coach Mark Daigneault has cultivated a winning culture, and it appears that he started doing so from day one, even when he was saddled with a roster that was not capable of winning very much.

Hopefully, if the Thunder win an NBA title this will not be considered a justification of tanking, because tanking cheats paying fans while demeaning and diminishing the value of competition. The NBA was much better when load management and tanking did not exist.

Regardless of how one feels about how the Thunder assembled their team, there is no denying how strong this team is, nor is there any denying that the Thunder have the edge in this matchup in the most relevant categories: the Thunder have the best player in the series (if not the entire league), they have a better offense, they led the NBA in defensive field goal percentage during the regular season and during the playoffs, and they have enough size to match up with any team.

Oklahoma City will defeat Minnesota in six games.

Labels: Alex Caruso, Anthony Edwards, Chet Holmgren, Jalen Williams, Julius Randle, Minnesota Timberwolves, Oklahama City Thunder, Rudy Gobert, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander

posted by David Friedman @ 8:46 PM

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Timberwolves Reclaim Homecourt Advantage With 102-97 Win Versus Warriors

Anthony Edwards scored a game-high 36 points--including 28 in the second half, 13 of which came in the fourth quarter--as the Minnesota Timberwolves reclaimed homecourt advantage with a 102-97 game three win versus the Golden State Warriors. Julius Randle contributed a triple double (24 points, game-high 12 assists, 10 rebounds), and Jaden McDaniels added 15 points while playing his usual tough defense. The Warriors led for most of the second half and were ahead 82-77 with 8:16 remaining in the fourth quarter before the Timberwolves went on a 16-4 run to take control. The Timberwolves outscored the Warriors 33-24 in the fourth quarter.

The biggest story of this series so far is the strained left hamstring suffered by two-time regular season MVP and 2022 Finals MVP Stephen Curry, who played just 13 minutes in Golden State's 99-88 game one win before being sidelined. Sans the injured Curry, the Warriors lost game two 117-93 but returned home owning homecourt advantage. Jimmy Butler did his part in game three, scoring a team-high 33 points, grabbing seven rebounds, and dishing for a team-high seven assists. Jonathan Kuminga, who fell out of the rotation earlier this season, scored 30 points off of the bench. Buddy Hield had a solid game with 14 points, five assists, and four rebounds. If the Warriors had received anything of substance from Draymond Green, a player touted as a future Hall of Famer, they could have won the game--but "Mr. Triple Single" finished with two points, four assists, and two rebounds on 1-4 field goal shooting while committing a game-high five turnovers before fouling out. He had more turnovers and fouls (11) than points, rebounds, assists, steals, and blocked shots (10) combined. Having more turnovers than field goals made is a "Harden," so perhaps having more turnovers and fouls than points, rebounds, assists, steals, and blocked shots combined should be called a "Green." It should be emphasized that his primary matchup, Randle, ate his lunch (and breakfast and dinner).

Green is a four-time NBA champion whose career should not be defined by one game, but the larger point is that there is a consistent pattern during his career that when he is not surrounded by multiple All-Stars--if not multiple Hall of Famers--then his numbers and his impact are muted. Is it too much to ask that in a pivotal playoff game Green figures out how to get five of something positive? If not five points, then five rebounds or five assists? Is it too much to ask that after getting in foul trouble Green avoids making high risk, low reward plays that result in him fouling out? One could cynically comment that the Warriors' best chance to win was to take him out so he took those fouls for the team, but even though he had a -5 plus/minus number the Warriors probably missed his defense and physicality down the stretch. 

After game two--during which Green received his fifth technical foul of the 2025 playoffs--Green ranted that he is the victim of a false narrative depicting him as an "Angry Black man." One of the characteristics of people who have anger management issues is to deny that they have a problem and instead blame others, and this is a recurring two-pronged pattern of behavior for Green: the first prong is him lashing out inappropriately, and the second prong is his stubborn refusal to take responsibility for his actions. Green's basketball playing ability has enabled him to obtain generational wealth, a host of accolades, and almost certain induction in the Naismith Memorial Basketball Hall of Fame; it takes a very peculiar, warped thought process for a person who has been so blessed to conclude that he is a victim who is being singled out for negative treatment. If Green lacked basketball playing ability and behaved in a similar fashion while holding a regular job then he would not only be fired but would likely be in jail and would almost certainly would be found liable in a civil action; he not only punched teammate/co-worker Jordan Poole in the face, but he has assaulted several opponents over the years, and he has been let off the hook with minor game suspensions plus fines that are negligible compared to his huge salary. Green is not only not a victim, but he is the beneficiary of privileges granted to a very select few athletes whose teams and leagues consider them to be valuable commodities. 

The Warriors would be much better served if Green focused on performing at a high level in game four and for the rest of the playoffs instead of pouting off of the court as a prelude to disappearing on the court.

Labels: Anthony Edwards, Draymond Green, Golden State Warriors, Jimmy Butler, Julius Randle, Minnesota Timberwolves, Stephen Curry

posted by David Friedman @ 1:17 AM

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Minnesota Versus Golden State Preview

Western Conference Second Round

#6 Minnesota (49-33) vs. #7 Golden State (48-34)

Season series: Golden State, 3-1

Golden State can win if…Stephen Curry does not wear down, if Jimmy Butler dominates by scoring in the paint/drawing fouls, and if the Warriors' defense contains Anthony Edwards without conceding too many open shots to other Minnesota players. Minnesota reached the Western Conference Finals last year and has homecourt advantage, so Golden State faces an uphill battle in this series.

The Warriors floundered to a 25-26 start this season before acquiring Jimmy Butler from the Miami Heat. After finishing the season with a 48-34 record, the Warriors defeated the Memphis Grizzlies 121-116 in the NBA Play-In Tournament to earn the seventh seed in the Western Conference. Golden State took a 3-1 lead in the first round versus the second seeded Houston Rockets before losing games five and six to set up a game seven showdown in Houston; it appeared as if the younger and more physical Rockets had worn down the Warriors, holding Curry to 13-35 (.371) field goal shooting in games five and six while forcing him to commit eight turnovers--but Golden State won game seven 103-89 as Buddy Hield scored a game-high 33 points while shooting 12-15 from the field, including 9-11 from three point range. Curry bounced back to produce 22 points on 8-16 field goal shooting while grabbing a team-high 10 rebounds (just his second double figure rebounding game in the playoffs since 2022) and passing for a game-high seven assists. Butler added 20 points, eight rebounds, and seven assists.

Curry is perhaps the most unusual of the players who can legitimately be ranked among the 15-20 greatest all-time; he and Jerry West are the shortest players in that group, but West was stronger, could jump higher, and played much better defense. During his playoff career, Curry has been targeted on defense, he has been worn down as series progress, and he has won the NBA Finals MVP just once during four championship campaigns--but he has also produced in the clutch on many occasions, including yesterday's game seven win in Houston and his 50 point masterpiece in a game seven win at Sacramento in 2023.

The addition of Butler has helped Golden State because Butler is not only an efficient scorer but he draws fouls, he is an excellent passer, he rebounds well, he is a very good defender, and he rises to the occasion in big moments. The Warriors would not even be in the playoffs this season without him. Against Houston, Butler ranked second on the team in scoring (18.3 ppg) and assists (4.8 apg), and first in rebounds (6.0 rpg). Butler played for Minnesota in the 2017-18 season before his contentious departure during the 2018-19 season, and this is the first time that he has faced the Timberwolves in the playoffs.

Draymond Green defends well, sets good screens, and is a deft passer. He is also an emotional time bomb that has exploded on many occasions, both to his detriment and to the detriment of his team. His media buddies will say that Golden State cannot win without him, but Green's typical triple single statistics versus Houston speak loudly: 8.0 ppg (sixth on the team), 5.6 rpg (third), and 3.3 apg (third) with .393/.258/.571 shooting splits. Even if one buys the premise that Green does a lot of good things that don't show up in the boxscore, what shows up in the boxscore for Green is often less than impressive, and we have already seen that Green has minimal impact on team success when he is not surrounded by multiple future Hall of Famers, with his triple singles adding up to a 15-50 record in the 2019-20 season. 

Hield's game seven performance was an aberration not only in the series--he scored five points or less in four of the seven games--but those 33 points are more than a third of his career playoff scoring total (98 points). The likelihood that he will ever score 33 points again in a playoff game is exceedingly low. 

Minnesota will win because...the Timberwolves will use their size to frustrate Golden State at both ends of the court. The Rockets did not consistently exploit their size advantage versus the Warriors and the Rockets lack a defined, elite number one scoring option; the Timberwolves bludgeoned the Lakers in the paint in the first round, and Anthony Edwards is an elite scorer whose young career already includes playoff series wins versus Luka Doncic, Kevin Durant, LeBron James, and Nikola Jokic. Edwards averaged 26.8 ppg, 8.4 rpg, and 6.2 apg versus the Lakers.

Former Laker Julius Randle, who the Timberwolves acquired from the New York Knicks in exchange for Karl-Anthony Towns prior to this series, averaged 22.6 ppg, 5.2 rpg, and 4.4 apg versus the Lakers. Randle can drive to the hoop with power, and he can nail three pointers as well, shooting 11-28 (.393) from long distance versus the Lakers to rank second on the team in three pointers made and second in three point field goal percentage.

Jaden McDaniels played excellent defense versus Doncic while also scoring 17.4 ppg (third on the team behind Edwards and Randle).

Draymond Green loves to mock and belittle Rudy Gobert, but now Green will have to deal with Gobert on the court. Gobert's first playoff matchup versus the Warriors ended in a 4-0 Golden State sweep of the Utah Jazz in 2017, but those Warriors featured prime Kevin Durant, prime Stephen Curry, and prime Klay Thompson, plus three big men (David West, Zaza Pachulia, JaVale McGhee) who each averaged between 10-15 mpg during that series. Gobert averaged 15.5 ppg on .658 field goal shooting in that series, and he led both teams with 13.0 rpg, so the notion that he does not match up well with the Warriors is demonstrably false--and if Gobert can be effective versus the Lakers' trio of Luka Doncic, LeBron James, and Austin Reaves, then he can be effective versus Stephen Curry, Jimmy Butler, and the undersized Warriors. Gobert did not score much during the first four games versus the Lakers, but in game five he had 27 points on 12-15 field goal shooting while grabbing 24 rebounds; the Lakers defiantly stuck with a small lineup, and Gobert destroyed the Lakers in the paint.

Other things to consider: I did not pick either of these teams to reach the second round, so I have to candidly assess what specifically I either underrated about these teams or that I overrated about their first round opponents. 

I expected the L.A. Lakers to exploit the scoring/playmaking of Luka Doncic, LeBron James, and Austin Reaves to overcome Minnesota's size advantage--but the Timberwolves pounded the Lakers into submission at both ends of the court while sufficiently containing Doncic, James, and Reaves. The Timberwolves did not fall into the trap of going small to match up with the Lakers but instead punished the Lakers for being too small.

I expected the Houston Rockets to use their size advantage and physicality to wear down the smaller, older Golden State Warriors; the Rockets followed that blueprint successfully for substantial portions of this series--most notably during games five and six--but they could not overcome their anemic offense, scoring 93 points or less in three of the seven games.

The Timberwolves are a bigger, better version of the Rockets team that wore down the Warriors but could not knock out the Warriors; the Timberwolves will finish what the Rockets began.

Minnesota will defeat Golden State in six games.

Labels: Anthony Edwards, Draymond Green, Golden State Warriors, Jimmy Butler, Julius Randle, Minnesota Timberwolves, Rudy Gobert, Stephen Curry

posted by David Friedman @ 4:14 PM

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Edwards Outduels Irving, but Mavericks Tame Timberwolves

Anthony Edwards and Kyrie Irving had a spectacular scoring showdown on Tuesday night, and when the dust cleared Edwards won the individual battle 37-35 but Irving's Dallas Mavericks beat Edwards' Minnesota Timberwolves, 120-114. The Mavericks improved to 3-1, while the Timberwolves dropped to 2-2. This was the first meeting this season between last season's Western Conference Finals combatants. The Mavericks dominated the 2024 Western Conference Finals 4-1, and the result of this game was not different even though the margin was much closer. 

Irving shot 13-23 from the field (including 6-8 from beyond the arc) while contributing five assists and four rebounds. He had just one turnover. Irving is an excellent player who had a great game, but the way that TNT's Stan Van Gundy consistently gushes about Irving is bizarre. Contrary to Van Gundy's assertion, Irving is not the best guard in the NBA, and Irving is not even the best guard on his own team: Luka Doncic is the best guard in Dallas and the NBA right now, with Shai Gilgeous-Alexander not far behind. Jalen Brunson is better than Irving, as are Anthony Edwards and Devin Booker, to name just three players who deservedly received more All-NBA Team votes than Irving did last season. Irving made the All-NBA Team just three times in his first 13 seasons, he has never been selected to the All-NBA First Team, and he earned Second Team honors just once--five years ago. Irving has turned out to be a good fit as Doncic's sidekick, but there is a perplexing tendency for some commentators to sound like raving fan boys when they compare Irving to other players.

Doncic filled up the boxscore (24 points, game-high eight assists, eight rebounds), but he shot just 10-27 from the field (including 1-8 on three pointers). P.J. Washington is a solid third option (17 points, eight rebounds), Daniel Gafford chipped in 14 points on 6-6 field goal shooting, and Dereck Lively II only scored four points, but he had a game-high tying nine rebounds. Klay Thompson had a quiet game (seven points and one assist in 30 minutes).

Edwards shot 12-20 from the field (including 7-13 from three point range), but he shot just 6-12 from the free throw line. He had six rebounds, three assists, and a game-high tying five turnovers. Julius Randle--acquired from the Knicks with Donte DiVincenzo in an offseason trade for Karl-Anthony Towns--added 20 points, seven rebounds, and a team-high seven assists. Randle has scored at least 20 points in three straight games after notching just 16 points in his Minnesota season opener. Naz Reid scored 14 points off of the bench, and he grabbed a game-high tying nine rebounds, but he also had a game-high tying five turnovers.

Edwards scored 24 first quarter points on 8-10 field goal shooting (including 6-8 from three point range), setting a career-high for any quarter and breaking the Target Center record for points in any quarter. Edwards is now tied with Chauncey Billups for the second highest scoring quarter in franchise history, trailing only Karl-Anthony Towns (32 points in the third quarter of his 60 point game versus the San Antonio Spurs on March 14, 2022). Edwards is a wondrous scorer who has both a smooth shooting stroke and the athletic ability to acrobatically finish in the paint. Instead of comparing him to Michael Jordan, we should just appreciate him for how great he is in his own right.

Fueled by Edwards' scoring explosion, the Timberwolves led 34-26 at the end of the first stanza--but Edwards scored zero points on 0-1 field goal shooting in the second quarter as the Mavericks outscored the Timberwolves 35-25 to lead 61-59 at intermission. Irving sizzled in the third quarter with 16 points on 6-10 field goal shooting, and the Mavericks won the third quarter 32-23 to push their advantage to 93-82 heading into the final stanza. Irving and the Mavericks cooled off in the final 12 minutes, but they held on to claim the win.

The Mavericks' one-two punch of Doncic and Irving is extremely difficult to match up with, particularly with some combination of Thompson, Washington, or Gafford providing supplemental scoring; the Mavericks look like a better team this season both on paper and in terms of the eye test, and that is saying a lot considering their strong 2024 playoff run. In contrast, the Timberwolves have their work cut out for them to repeat their 2024 playoff performance. The Timberwolves physically overpowered teams last season--at least until they ran into the Mavericks in the playoffs--but without Towns they are smaller and they are more reliant on 2024 Sixth Man of the Year Reid to provide scoring and rebounding; it is too soon to say that the trade made the Timberwolves worse, but I am not convinced that the trade made them better.

Labels: Anthony Edwards, Dallas Mavericks, Julius Randle, Kyrie Irving, Luka Doncic, Minnesota Timberwolves

posted by David Friedman @ 1:35 AM

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LeBron and Bronny Make History, but Davis Dominates as Lakers Tame Timberwolves

It is not often that a second round draft pick who played three minutes in his NBA debut gets headline treatment--but when that second round draft pick is the son of the NBA's all-time leading scorer, and that duo becomes the first father and son to share playing time on an NBA court then headline treatment is inevitable. The L.A. Lakers defeated the Minnesota Timberwolves 110-103 in the second game of TNT's 2024 NBA Opening Night doubleheader, but what will be remembered most about this game is that Bronny James played alongside his father LeBron James. Bronny did not score a point, shooting 0-2 from the field with a -5 plus/minus number in just under three minutes of action; his best chance to score came on a drive and kick pass from his father, but Bronny missed an open three pointer.

Bronny was the story of the night, but Anthony Davis was the star of the game with game-high totals in points (36), rebounds (16), and blocked shots (three). Davis' activity level was so high that sometimes it seemed like he was in two places at once. When Davis is healthy and dominant, the Lakers look like a different team. He was the main reason that the Lakers outscored the Timberwolves in the paint, 72-40. For the past several years, we have been subjected to various narratives about the Lakers, including the team supposedly needing "lasers" (outside shooters), Russell Westbrook being demonized and turned into a scapegoat even though intelligent analysts like Hubie Brown praised Westbook, and media members bending over backwards to spin the facts about the team's flaws to preserve access to LeBron James--but we rarely hear the truth told about this team: the Lakers are at their best when Davis and James attack the paint at both ends of the court; that was the recipe for success when the Lakers won the 2020 "bubble title."

The Lakers shot 5-30 (.167) from three point range and James had a quiet game by his lofty standards (16 points, five rebounds, four assists), but the Lakers' paint dominance spearheaded by Davis was the difference. Anthony Edwards led Minnesota with 27 points, but he shot just 10-25 from the field as the Timberwolves shot 35-85 (.412) from the field overall. Julius Randle, who was acquired from the New York Knicks in exchange for Karl-Anthony Towns, finished with 16 points, nine rebounds, and four assists. The Timberwolves used their size to push teams around last season, but in this game the Lakers pushed them around. 

New Lakers Coach J.J. Redick is a "stat guru" at heart, so one of his mantras is that he wants the Lakers to shoot more three pointers than they did last season. If the Lakers follow that prescription then they will not improve their record, but if they play with force in the paint the way that they did versus the Timberwolves then they will be better than than they have been in recent seasons.

TNT's postgame on court interview is usually conducted with the star of the game, but instead of Davis receiving the honor and the attention the spotlight shined on LeBron and Bronny, who comes across as a thoughtful and grounded young man. LeBron James grew up without his biological father, so James' commitment to being a family man is commendable. As a father, I understand how meaningful it must be to him to play in an NBA game alongside his son, and from a human interest standpoint this is a wonderful moment, with the emotional impact heightened by the fact that Bronny has recovered from suffering cardiac arrest on July 24, 2023.

However, from the standpoint of the NBA putting the best possible product on the floor and from the standpoint of the Lakers posing as a team that aspires to win a championship, Bronny's presence on an NBA roster--let alone his appearance in an NBA game--is problematic. Bronny averaged 4.8 ppg on .366 field goal shooting in his only college season; no player with that statistical profile is going to be drafted by an NBA team--unless his father is LeBron James. TNT's Kenny Smith kept emphasizing that Bronny James was a McDonald's All-American in high school, stating that this demonstrates that Bronny earned being a second round draft pick--but being a McDonald's All-American in high school does not always translate into college success, let alone NBA success. It is ridiculous to suggest that any team other than James' Lakers would have drafted Bronny (unless a team thought that drafting Bronny could influence James to leave the Lakers to sign with them).

By not only giving Bronny a roster spot that he did not earn but putting him on the court in a regular season game, the Lakers are demonstrating that they are not serious about winning; they don't have the best 15 player roster that they could have assembled, nor do they have the best 8-10 player rotation that they could have assembled. If the plan is to give Bronny three minutes now and then have him spend the rest of the season in the NBA G League, then essentially this was nothing more than a publicity stunt, and if the plan is to keep giving Bronny a few minutes here and there even though he has not earned those minutes then the other players on the Lakers' roster--and better players than Bronny who are not even in the league--will inevitably become resentful. Bronny is set for life financially regardless of how his playing career goes, but for most NBA prospects the opportunity to earn an NBA roster spot is potentially life-changing. The LeBron-Bronny father-son moment came at the expense of a player whose hard work should have earned him an NBA roster spot. I have heard the argument that nepotism happens in all fields so this is not a big deal, but that is the first time that I have heard the notion that because nepotism is widespread that makes it OK.

Opening Night was a happy story on the surface--the Lakers won, and LeBron James orchestrated the father-son moment that he has talked about for years--but the Lakers' season is unlikely to have a storybook ending. James has taken over the franchise to the extent that the Lakers feel compelled to make decisions that will please James even at the expense of on court success: they hired James' buddy Redick even though Redick has no meaningful coaching experience, and then they gave playing time to a player who is not NBA-caliber at this time. These unprofessional decisions will likely lead to consequences down the line.

Again, as a father I understand why LeBron made this happen--and I wish Bronny all the best in his career and life--but it is naive at best to expect this to end well.

Labels: Anthony Davis, Anthony Edwards, Bronny James, J.J. Redick, Julius Randle, L.A. Lakers, LeBron James, Minnesota Timberwolves

posted by David Friedman @ 3:19 AM

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76ers Beat Knicks 79-73 in Lowest Scoring NBA Game Since 2016

The Philadelphia 76ers defeated the New York Knicks 79-73 on Sunday night despite being without the services of injured All-Stars Joel Embiid and Tyrese Maxey. Embiid has missed the last 18 games while recovering from knee surgery, while Maxey has been out for four games because he is in the concussion protocol. The Knicks played without All-Star Julius Randle, who has missed 18 straight games with a dislocated shoulder. Kelly Oubre Jr. led the 76ers with 18 points while also grabbing 10 rebounds and swiping three steals. Buddy Hield (16 points, seven rebounds) and Paul Reed (13 points, seven rebounds) made important contributions off of the bench, while Tobias Harris added 11 points and a game-high 12 rebounds. Jalen Brunson scored a game-high 19 points and passed for a game-high eight assists, but he shot just 6-22 from the field. Donte DiVincenzo had 15 points on 6-17 field goal shooting, and Bojan Bogdanovic (10 points on 4-8 field goal shooting) was the Knicks' only other double figure scorer.

This is the first NBA game in which both teams scored fewer than 80 points since January 6, 2016. The Knicks shot just 26-80 (.325) from the field and they committed 21 turnovers, eight more than their per game average. The Knicks were particularly bad from three point range (9-40, .225) and--like many teams in the modern NBA--they kept firing away from long range unconcerned about their airballs and bricks; it is puzzling that so many NBA teams do not have a backup plan for games during which they just cannot make three pointers.  

Hubie Brown provided the color commentary for ESPN, and this is the fourth 76ers game for which Brown has provided color commentary since February 23; his most recent telecast was when the 76ers defeated the Mavericks 120-116 on Sunday March 3, and prior to that he did the color commentary when the Bucks topped the 76ers 119-98 on Sunday February 25, and when the 76ers beat the Cavaliers 104-97 on Friday February 23.

During his pregame remarks, Brown noted that Brunson is a three level scorer (three point line, midrange, in the paint), and he said that he is happy that Brunson was rewarded for his hard work by making the All-Star team for the first time. Brown mentioned that Harris is a versatile player and he said that Harris' contributions are critically important while Embiid and Maxey are sidelined. Brown concluded that the pressure is on for both of these teams to maintain their position in the standings by not losing to sub-.500 teams.

When the game began, Brown pointed out that the 76ers had two point guards in the starting lineup--Kyle Lowry and Cameron Payne--to control the tempo and try to get easy fast break scoring opportunities. Brown observed that neither of those point guards checked Brunson; instead, the 76ers assigned that task to the bigger and more athletic Oubre.

Brown singled out Harris' excellent first quarter--six points, five rebounds--as the teams played to a 15-15 tie after the first 12 minutes. The 76ers shot 7-24 (.292) from the field, while the Knicks shot 6-18 (.333) and had more turnovers (seven) than field goals made--the rare team "Harden" (the statistical category denoting a player--or, in this case, a team--accumulating more turnovers than field goals made). Brown said that the 76ers were struggling to score against New York's active, switching defense. He also mentioned throughout the game how much he loves Reed, who he described as a "tough guy."

The Knicks posted another "Harden" in the second quarter, again with seven turnovers and six field goals made, and the 76ers outscored them 22-16 to take a 37-31 halftime lead as the teams combined for the NBA's lowest scoring half this season. Brown provided his usual concise, on point scouting reports on various players, chiding the Knicks that they must jam Hield because Hield is always looking to shoot, and praising Oubre as "a midrange player who wants the contact." Brown said that the 76ers did a terrific job forcing Brunson to take tough, contested shots while also cutting down his passing angles. I love Brunson's attitude and work ethic, and there is no denying how productive he has been during his career, but it must be a little disconcerting for Knicks' fans to see how much he can be bothered by size, which is often the downfall of undersized guards--particularly during postseason play, when the best teams often either have big guards or else will cross-match to nullify a potent but undersized guard.

Beth Mowins on the play by play mentioned that ESPN Analytics predict that both teams will maintain their current position in the standings. Brown quipped, "Does that mean we don't have to play the remaining games?" Brown favored the use of meaningful statistics--including point differential--long before anyone talked about "advanced basketball statistics," but he does not go all-in on the numerical driven nonsense spewed by many analysts and commentators who lack his ability to understand a basketball game by watching with an educated eye.

During the third quarter, ESPN showed a graphic of the top five single season scorers in Knicks' history: Bernard King (32.9 ppg in 1984-85), Richie Guerin (29.5 ppg in 1961-62), Carmelo Anthony (28.7 ppg in 2012-13), Patrick Ewing (28.6 ppg in 1989-90), and Carmelo Anthony (27.4 ppg in 2013-14). Brunson averaged 27.2 ppg this season prior to Sunday night's game. Brown coached the Knicks from 1982-86, so he had a close view of King's most dominant seasons--a 26.3 ppg masterpiece in 1983-84 when the Knicks pushed the eventual NBA champion Boston Celtics to seven games in the Eastern Conference Semifinals, followed by a league-leading 32.9 ppg in a 1984-85 season cut short by a devastating knee injury that kept King out of action until 1987. King eventually became the first player to make the All-Star team with a totally reconstructed knee. Brown shared poignant memories of how King injured his knee in 1985 while doing a chasedown block of Reggie Theus in Kansas City. Mowins quietly commented that the worst moments are sometimes more memorable for coaches than the highlight moments. 

As the teams slogged their way through a 42-42 second half, Brown said of Harris, "They need him to get going. They need him to not be bashful." It is often frustrating to watch Harris; he seems to have first option level talent, but despite his size, athletic ability, and shooting skill he tends to drift through games instead of placing his imprint on the action. 

One does not need to be a basketball expert to diagnose New York's problems during this game--too many turnovers combined with wretched three point shooting--but Brown managed to state the obvious without beating viewers over the head with it; we could all see what was happening without someone like "Screamin' A" Smith rupturing our eardrums while confusing decibel levels with IQ points, as if raising the former corresponds with demonstrating a high number of the latter.

Brown does not harp on officiating, but he made an observation that he has made in previous games this season: players have difficulty figuring out how to play when the officiating is inconsistent regarding what is a foul. Coaches and players have criticized officiating forever, but it seems like the overall quality of officiating has declined in recent years. 

This game is not destined to be rebroadcast as an "instant classic," but Brown once again provided a master class in how to analyze a game without screaming, without citing numbers of doubtful relevance or value, and without making it seem like the game is a branding opportunity for the commentators as opposed to entertainment for the viewers.

Labels: Jalen Brunson, Joel Embiid, Julius Randle, Kelly Oubre Jr., New York Knicks, Paul Reed, Philadelphia 76ers, Tobias Harris, Tyrese Maxey

posted by David Friedman @ 2:01 AM

6 comments

New Look Knicks Rout Slumping Heat

The Miami Heat jumped out to a 19-9 first quarter lead versus the New York Knicks, but the Knicks trimmed that margin to 30-27 by the end of the first quarter en route to posting a 125-109 win. Jalen Brunson scored a game-high 32 points and dished for a game-high eight assists. Julius Randle contributed 19 points and nine rebounds before leaving the game after suffering a dislocated right shoulder while bracing his fall as he drove to the hoop with 4:27 remaining in the fourth quarter. OG Anunoby added 19 points plus four assists. The Knicks outrebounded the Heat 46-38. The Boston Celtics are the class of the Eastern Conference if not the entire NBA, but the Knicks have looked like an elite team since acquiring Anunoby from the Toronto Raptors, posting a 12-3 record (including 12-2 in games when Anunoby played). The Knicks have won six games in a row, highlighted by a 122-84 victory on Thursday versus the reigning NBA champion Denver Nuggets.

Jimmy Butler led the Heat with 28 points, and he also had eight rebounds and four assists. Duncan Robinson scored 19 points, and Tyler Herro had 18 points. The Heat have lost six straight games, and with a 24-22 record they do not rank among the top six teams in the East; of course, last season the Heat reached the NBA Finals after only finishing with the seventh best record in the East, so we have learned not to count out the NBA's version of Rasputin.

Hubie Brown is my all-time favorite NBA analyst, and it was wonderful to hear his commentary during this game. The video of Brown and Spike Lee enjoying a conversation on court before the game is priceless, showing the former Knicks coach reminiscing with the most famous Knicks fan. Brown noted during the telecast that he has known Lee since the 1970s! 

Brown's most recent ABC or ESPN game was 10 days ago, when the Cavaliers crushed the Bucks, 135-95. There is a huge gap between Brown and most other current NBA analysts, because Brown not only has unparalleled understanding of basketball strategy but he also knows basketball history. During this game, ABC/ESPN showed a graphic indicating that Brunson is on pace to become the only Knick other than Richie Guerin to average at least 25 ppg and at least 5 apg in the same season. Brown immediately noted that Guerin began his career as a center at Iona, and then became one of the greatest Knicks of all-time before being a top notch NBA coach. Brown's love and respect for the game's pioneers is preferable to the arrogant ignorance regularly displayed by ABC/ESPN analyst J.J. Redick.

Brown is not stuck in the past, though. He is very familiar with the NBA's current players, and he loves Brunson's game. It is remarkable how Brunson has blossomed from solid role player in his first two NBA seasons to All-Star--if not All-NBA--caliber performer. Before the game, Brown said, "Brunson is so clever off of the dribble...he has multiple moves to free himself." 

In the first quarter, Knicks shot just .417 from the field while missing several shots in the paint. Butler, who often seems to coast during the regular season, was aggressive and focused in the first quarter, scoring 11 points on 4-7 field goal shooting. Brown pointed out that Butler only averages 13 field goal attempts per game, and he noted, "He's shooting 48% from the floor, 41% from three, and you can't foul him" because he is an excellent free throw shooter (.881).

As the Knicks recovered from their slow start and took control, Brown praised their ball movement, their scoring in the paint, and the strong contributions made by their bench players. Brown also liked Randle's play: "Randle has been patient. Make the extra pass, and let's free up the open guy."

Brown diagnosed the Heat's problem: although they are strong defensively (ranking seventh in the league in points allowed), they struggle to score (ranking 27th in scoring and 25th in field goal percentage). In this game, the Heat's defense was subpar, and they did not score nearly enough points to make up for that.

The Knicks led 61-51 at halftime, and then pushed that advantage to 13 points in the third quarter before the Heat rallied to tie the score at 86 on a Butler drive with 13.2 seconds remaining in the quarter. Butler missed the free throw after being fouled, Randle hit a three pointer just before the buzzer sounded, and the Knicks led the rest of the way.

Assuming that Brunson and company can hold down the fort until Randle returns--and assuming that Randle makes a full recovery without missing too many games--the Knicks could be a dangerous playoff team because of their defense, their toughness, and Brunson's timely scoring/playmaking.

Labels: Hubie Brown, Jalen Brunson, Jimmy Butler, Julius Randle, Miami Heat, New York Knicks

posted by David Friedman @ 7:15 PM

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Bucks Rout Knicks 146-122 to Advance to NBA Cup Semifinals

Milwaukee defeated New York 110-105 in the first NBA Cup game, but the rematch was no contest: the Bucks dominated the visiting Knicks 146-122 to advance to an NBA Cup Semifinals matchup with the Indiana Pacers, who defeated the Boston Celtics 122-112 last night. 

Giannis Antetokounmpo scored a team-high 35 points in just 34 minutes, shooting 15-22 from the field while also grabbing a game-high eight rebounds and dishing for a game-high 10 assists. Damian Lillard added 28 points on 8-13 field goal shooting, and he also had seven assists. The Bucks had four other double figure scorers: Malik Beasley (18 points), Khris Middleton (14 points), Bobby Portis (13 points), and Cameron Payne (12 points). The Bucks shot 55-91 (.604) from the field, including 23-38 (.605) from three point range.

Julius Randle flirted with a perfect shooting game before finishing with 41 points on 14-19 field goal shooting and 11-12 free throw shooting. Jalen Brunson added 24 points and a team-high six assists, while R.J. Barrett contributed 23 points while tying Antetokounmpo for game-high honors with eight rebounds. The Knicks not only did a horrible job defending the three point line but they made just seven of their 23 long range attempts (.304).

Milwaukee led 37-35 after a defense-optional first quarter that foreshadowed how the rest of the game would go for the Bucks offensively. Antetokounmpo led the Bucks with 13 points on 6-8 field goal shooting as the Bucks shot 15-25 (.600) from the field. Randle (12 points on 6-6 field goal shooting) and Barrett (10 points on 3-7 field goal shooting) paced the Knicks. 

Milwaukee led 75-72 at halftime as the Bucks shot 28-43 (.651) from the field. Lillard had 19 points on 5-7 field goal shooting (including 4-4 from three point range), and Antetokounmpo scored 16 points on 7-9 field goal shooting. Randle led both teams with 25 points on 9-9 field goal shooting and 6-6 free throw shooting. Brunson added 15 points but shot just 6-15 from the field in a reversal of roles with Randle, who has been a high volume, inefficient scorer thus far this season. 

The Bucks took control in the third quarter, outscoring the Knicks 37-24 while shooting 13-22 (.591) from the field and holding the Knicks to 8-22 (.364) field goal shooting. At the start of the fourth quarter, TNT showed an incredible statistic: this game marked the first time that a Knicks opponent had scored at least 37 points in each of the first three quarters since Wilt Chamberlain's 100 point game on March 2, 1962. Chamberlain's Philadelphia Warriors won that game, 169-147. The Bucks could have scored 37 points in the fourth quarter as well, but took their foot off of the gas in the waning moments and settled for a 34-26 advantage in the final stanza. Knicks Coach Tom Thibodeau prides himself on defense, so he must be aghast by his team's horrific performance at that end of the court. 

As for the Bucks, this game provided a glimpse of what the Antetokounmpo-Lillard duo can look like when they are both playing at a high level offensively, but the concerning thing for the Bucks is that--unlike their 2021 championship team that ranked fifth in defensive field goal percentage and second in rebounding--this team is very dependent on outscoring opponents because they rank just 16th in defensive field goal percentage and 20th in rebounding; that is not a championship-winning formula, so the primary challenge for the Bucks is figuring out how to improve defensively and on the boards. The theory behind shipping out Jrue Holiday in exchange for Lillard is that Lillard can provide scoring and playmaking punch down the stretch of close playoff games, but if the Bucks don't get better defensively then their playoff games versus elite opponents may not be close down the stretch.

Labels: Damian Lillard, Giannis Antetokounmpo, Jalen Brunson, Julius Randle, Milwaukee Bucks, New York Knicks

posted by David Friedman @ 11:31 PM

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Knicks Dominate Sluggish Spurs

The New York Knicks defeated the San Antonio Spurs 126-105 in a game that received a lot of attention/hype because it marked Victor Wembanyama's first appearance at the fabled Madison Square Garden. San Antonio's Wembanyama may have been the headliner, but New York's Jalen Brunson, R.J. Barrett, and Julius Randle stole the show: Brunson scored a game-high 25 points while tying Barrett for team-high honors with six assists, Barrett added 24 points, and Randle contributed 23 points, a game-high 16 rebounds, and five assists. The Knicks shot 19-42 (.452) from three point range--with Brunson (5-8) and Barrett (5-9) leading the way from beyond the arc--and they committed just three turnovers. Each New York starter had a plus/minus number of at least +26, while Wembanyama had a game-worst plus/minus number of -25. Wembanyama finished with 14 points on 4-14 field goal shooting, plus nine rebounds, two assists, and one blocked shot. Jeremy Sochan led the Spurs with 16 points. 

While Wembanyama may be a legend in the making, a true legend was courtside calling the action: Hubie Brown provided color commentary for ESPN's national TV broadcast alongside Mike Breen. Brown's most recent ESPN national telecast was Denver's 125-100 win over the Phoenix Suns in game six of the Western Conference semifinals. Brown was an assistant coach with the 1970s Milwaukee teams featuring Kareem Abdul-Jabbar (and Oscar Robertson) before he led the Kentucky Colonels to the 1975 ABA title with a frontcourt featuring Hall of Famers Artis Gilmore and Dan Issel (and Hall of Fame guard Louie Dampier), so he is well-acquainted with championship-level big man play. Here is Brown's pregame assessment of Wembanyama: "The weight is a problem because he gets moved by the big people. He's got to be able to gain the weight and hold his spot, but when he gains the weight will he lose his quickness? That is all part of his development." Brown added that Wembanyama's incredible wingspan enables him to block shots without fouling. Brown is also impressed by Wembanyama's ballhandling and shooting stroke: "He handles the ball like a guard, and shoots the three pointer like an established two guard." Throughout the game, Brown noted how Wembanyama's lack of strength was a liability on offense because bigger, stronger players could prevent Wembanyama from holding his position and they could knock him off balance when he tried to drive. 

The Knicks started the game with a 13-0 scoring burst, and they led 33-16 by the end of the first quarter. Brown commented, "You have to like the pace that the Knicks are setting." Wembanyama scored just two first quarter points, missing all three of his field goal attempts. Despite the widespread perception that the NBA is a fourth quarter league, the reality is that it is often a first quarter league (as Doug Collins often pointed out during his broadcasting career), and that was the case tonight, as the Spurs never got closer than 14 points after the first quarter. 

The Spurs are not a good team, and Wembanyama is a talented but still raw player. It is evident that the Spurs' tanking to get Wembanyama did the franchise no favors; no one on the current roster knows how to win consistently at the NBA level, and it shows. The team lacks veteran players who can show Wembanyama the ropes. Wembanyama should not be judged by his best games or by his worst games. He is very much a work in progress, and his growth process will take however long it takes, regardless of how eager people are to crown him as a superstar right now. 

During the telecast, Brown provided his insights about the new NBA Cup, and about the Knicks' prospects this season. Brown thinks that the NBA Cup is a great idea, provided that both the players and the fans fully accept it. His only gripe is that the special NBA Cup courts do not have the traditional lines on them, because he noted that coaches often teach their players to set up by certain lines for specific plays, an option that is not available during NBA Cup games with the special courts. 

Brown--who coached the Knicks to game seven of the 1984 Eastern Conference Semifinals in a memorable series featuring Larry Bird versus Bernard King--said that the Knicks' defense is good but their problem is that they just don't score enough on a consistent basis. The Knicks' blazing shooting combined with low turnovers versus the Spurs does not look like something that can be sustained.

Although this game did not turn out to be as competitive or memorable as one would have hoped, it is always a treat to watch Brown call a game, and to hear his insights about yet another generation of NBA players. Brown can always be relied on to provide objective analysis devoid of both hype and rancor; many of ESPN's other basketball commentators/analysts would benefit from emulating Brown's approach, even if they have no chance to match his knowledge and experience.

Labels: Hubie Brown, Jalen Brunson, Julius Randle, New York Knicks, R.J. Barrett, San Antonio Spurs, Victor Wembanyama

posted by David Friedman @ 11:55 PM

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Milwaukee Holds Off New York 110-105 in the First NBA Cup Game

I already provided my skeptical perspective about the NBA's in-season NBA Cup tournament. I will add that I can see how young fans might be excited about the unique and colorful NBA Cup court designs and about watching their favorite players and teams competing for a special trophy--but that excitement will dissipate quickly unless the players and teams take the NBA Cup a lot more seriously than many of them have taken the regular season recently. As a long-time basketball fan/historian, I hope that the NBA Cup will be successful in terms of featuring competitive basketball.

The NBA Cup began on Friday night in Milwaukee with the 2-2 Bucks hosting the 2-3 New York Knicks. NBA Cup games count both in the regular season standings and in terms of qualifying for the NBA Cup tournament in December; the only NBA Cup game which will not count in the regular season standings is the December 9 championship game, which will be a stand alone game just like the Play-In Tournament games are not counted as regular season games or playoff games. 

The Bucks led most of the way but had to scramble after Jalen Brunson's three pointer put the Knicks ahead 103-101 with just 1:10 remaining in the fourth quarter; that proved to the Knicks' first--and only--second half lead, as Damian Lillard answered with a three pointer followed by a conventional three point play and the Bucks preserved the win by making three out of four free throws in the final 18 seconds.

Lillard led the Bucks with 30 points on 7-15 field goal shooting. He scored 15 fourth quarter points and did not commit a turnover in the final stanza. Antetokounmpo added 22 points, eight rebounds, and six assists. He had a game-high seven turnovers, and a game-high +13 plus/minus number; Lillard's plus/minus number (+2) ranked sixth on the team. Plus/minus numbers in small sample sizes should generally be taken with a grain of salt, but it is fair to say that the way that Lillard plays--often shooting long three pointers, and often not playing much defense--is not typically the way that championship players play, notwithstanding his proven ability to win individual games with his clutch shooting. Lillard scored 21.3 ppg on .400 field goal shooting in his first four games as a Buck. Last season, Antetokounmpo averaged 31.3 ppg on 20.3 field goal attempts per game, but through the first four games this season he averaged 24.5 ppg on 16.8 field goal attempts per game. It should not take a "stat guru" or mathematical genius to figure out that taking shots away from an efficient Antetokounmpo who attacks the paint to give those shots to an undersized Lillard who shoots logo three pointers is not a recipe for creating an optimally efficient offense. If Lillard is as great and unselfish as he is supposed to be, then it should not be a problem for the Bucks to run a two-man game with Antetokounmpo and Lillard that generates (1) easy shots for Antetokounmpo in the paint, (2) open shots for Lillard closer than 30 feet from the hoop, and (3) open shots for their teammates if the opponent denies the first two options. 

Brunson poured in a game-high 45 points on 17-30 field goal shooting. He had a +2 plus/minus number in a game that his team lost by five points. Quentin Grimes (17 points on 6-11 field goal shooting) and Immanuel Quickley (14 points on 5-10 field goal shooting) played well, but Julius Randle has become the least efficient volume scorer in the NBA: he finished with 16 points on 5-20 field goal shooting, and that is just not good enough even though his floor game was excellent (12 rebounds, team-high tying five assists, just one turnover in 39 minutes). The Knicks dominated the larger Bucks 56-41 on the boards, and they outscored the Bucks 59-54 in the second half. If Randle had been mediocre instead of terrible then the Knicks would have won.

A 110-105 victory over a less than impressive Knicks team should be nothing special for a team with championship aspirations, but the Bucks need every win they can get because the Damian Lillard honeymoon did not last long in Milwaukee. Lillard poured in 39 points in an opening night win versus the Philadelphia 76ers, but the Bucks lost two of their next three games. Double digit losses to the non-contending Hawks and Raptors sandwiched around a win versus the thus-far lethargic Heat hardly inspire confidence, particularly considering that in this admittedly small sample size of games the Bucks have slipped from being an elite defensive team last season to being an atrocious defensive team. 

The Bucks made two major offseason changes: they fired Mike Budenholzer--who coached the Bucks to the 2021 championship with a defense-first mindset--and replaced him with former NBA player Adrian Griffin, who has never been a head coach at any level; they traded away all-around guard Jrue Holiday for Lillard, a prolific scorer who thinks defense is what surrounds the yard. Without Budenholzer and Holiday, it is not surprising that the Bucks are struggling to stay in front of perimeter players and that collectively they look confused defensively. I picked the Bucks to be the best team in the Eastern Conference not because of the Lillard trade but despite it; I am not convinced that the trade made the Bucks better, but I am convinced that a healthy Giannis Antetokounmpo is a special, generational player. The Bucks must make Antetokounmpo the focal point of the offense, and they must figure out how to hide Lillard's defensive deficiencies.

Labels: Damian Lillard, Giannis Antetokounmpo, Jalen Brunson, Julius Randle, Milwaukee Bucks, NBA Cup, New York Knicks

posted by David Friedman @ 12:20 AM

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Porzingis, Tatum Lead the Way as Celtics Beat Knicks

Kristaps Porzingis scored 12 fourth quarter points as the Boston Celtics rallied from a six point deficit to defeat the New York Knicks 108-104 in the season opener for both teams. Jayson Tatum led the Celtics with a game-high 34 points and a game-high tying 11 rebounds while shooting 13-22 from the field and dishing for four assists. Porzingis finished with 30 points, eight rebounds, four blocked shots, and a game-high +13 plus/minus number. Derrick White added 12 points, Jaylen Brown had a quiet performance by his standards (11 points, six rebounds, five assists), and Jrue Holiday contributed nine points, four rebounds, and three assists in his debut for Boston.

R.J. Barrett and Immanuel Quickley each scored 24 points for the Knicks, while Jalen Brunson (15 points on 6-21 field goal shooting) and Julius Randle (14 points on 5-22 field goal shooting) struggled to score. Randle had a very good floor game (11 rebounds, seven assists, no turnovers) but he also had a game-worst -13 plus/minus number. A major unanswered question for the Knicks is whether Randle can be a productive and efficient scorer against elite teams; his performance against the Celtics echoes his career playoff averages (17.1 ppg, 9.4 rpg, 3.7 apg, .344 FG%).

The Celtics led 30-18 at the end of the first quarter, paced by Porzingis' 15 points and Tatum's 10 points. The Celtics shot 11-21 (.524) from the field while holding the Knicks to 7-26 (.269) field goal shooting, and it looked like the Knicks did not belong on the same court with the Celtics--but the Knicks settled down in the second quarter and outscored the Celtics 28-21 despite shooting just 10-24 (.417) from the field. The Knicks shot 5-14 from three point range, with Quickley scoring eight points and shooting 2-3 from beyond the arc in just 6:58 of playing time.

The Celtics won the third quarter 31-27 despite the Knicks shooting 5-10 (.500) from three point range, and thus led 82-73 heading into the final stanza. The fourth quarter was high scoring but also a bit of a slog as both teams struggled to make field goals; the Celtics shot 5-14 (.357) from the field while the Knicks shot 10-26 (.385) from the field, but the Celtics still scored 26 points because they shot 14-15 from the free throw line and the Knicks scored 18 of their 31 points from beyond the arc. The Celtics never trailed prior to the 8:56 mark of the fourth quarter, when Josh Hart's three pointer put the Knicks up, 86-84. Neither team led by more than three points until Quentin Grimes' three pointer with 4:10 remaining gave the Knicks a 99-93 lead. Porzingis then scored nine points down the stretch--including a three pointer with 1:29 remaining to put the Celtics up 104-101--to clinch the Boston victory.

Despite the lapses midway through the fourth quarter, overall this was a solid performance by the new-look Celtics, who are integrating offseason acquisitions Porzingis and Holiday into the starting lineup. The Knicks showed once again that they are capable of competing with an elite team, but it remains to be seen how often they can beat elite teams.

Labels: Boston Celtics, Jalen Brunson, Jaylen Brown, Jayson Tatum, Julius Randle, Kristaps Porzingis, New York Knicks

posted by David Friedman @ 11:55 PM

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Heat Outlast Knicks, Advance to the Eastern Conference Finals

Barely a month ago, the 44-38 Miami Heat lost to the 41-41 Atlanta Hawks in the first game of the Play-In Tournament, forcing the Heat to win their next Play-In Tournament game to avoid missing the playoffs. The Heat beat the Chicago Bulls 102-91 to slip into the playoffs, but they seemed unlikely to make much noise in the postseason. Tonight, the Heat beat the New York Knicks 96-92 to win their second round series 4-2 and advance to the Eastern Conference Finals. This may not be the most improbable playoff run in NBA history--it should be remembered that last season the Heat finished with the Eastern Conference's best record (53-29)--but it is on the short list. Jimmy Butler led the way with 24 points, but he shot just 7-22 from the field in a defensive struggle (or offensive quagmire, depending on your perspective) during which the Heat shot .402 from the field and the Knicks shot .380 from the field. Bam Adebayo scored 23 points on 9-20 field goal shooting, and he had a team-high nine rebounds. Max Strus contributed 14 points and six rebounds, while Kyle Lowry made a significant impact off of the bench with 11 points and a game-high nine assists.

Jalen Brunson completed one of the most prolific playoff series in Knicks' history (31.0 ppg) by scoring 41 points on 14-22 field goal shooting. Brunson joined Bernard King as the only players in the Knicks' storied history to score at least 30 points in four games in one playoff series. He played 45 minutes after playing all 48 minutes in New York's game five win. When Brunson was in the game, the Knicks' offense ran more smoothly than it did during his brief rest, even on possessions when he did not take the shot and did not make the assist pass. In the first half, the Knicks outscored the Heat by six points when Brunson was in the game, and the Heat outscored the Knicks by seven points when Brunson was not in the game, resulting in a 51-50 halftime lead for the Heat.

Julius Randle had a miserable shooting game, even by the low standard set by both teams: he shot just 3-14 from the field, finishing with 15 points and a team-high 11 rebounds. R.J. Barrett was even worse, managing just 11 points on 1-10 field goal shooting. Josh Hart scored his 11 points much more efficiently on 5-10 field goal shooting, but no other Knick scored in double figures. 

The Knicks raced to a 31-17 first quarter lead, but their anemic offense could not keep up that pace or maintain that margin; the Knicks scored just 19, 21, and 21 points in the final three quarters, and the Heat outscored them in each stanza. The Heat led 51-50 at halftime, and even though they never pushed that margin into double digits they also never trailed again.

Despite the disappointing ending--and contrary to the obnoxious wailing "Screamin' A" Smith does--this was a successful season for the Knicks: how many people would have predicted before the season that this squad would be playing in game six in the second round of the playoffs? The Knicks need to add some more scoring and playmaking to go to the next level, but a good foundation is in place because this team is well-coached, physical, and defensive-minded. If you listen to "Screamin' A"--and no one can blame you if don't--all you hear is him making infantile, immature rants about New York's players without giving any credit to Miami's defense and without providing any analysis about what actually happened during the game. The Heat trapped Brunson, angled the left-handed point guard to the right side of the court, and cut down his passing lanes, a task made easier because the Knicks do not have a reliable secondary playmaker and they do not have enough outside shooting to punish that kind of defense. Brunson did the best that he could do, but he needs a little more help. The Knicks did not get blown out, nor did they quit; they just came up a little short.

It is difficult to know what to make of the Heat, other than acknowledging that they are a rare proverbial "team nobody wants to face" that has lived up to that usually false designation. Erik Spoelstra is a great coach, and Jimmy Butler is a big-time player. Bam Adebayo is undersized but he is skilled and he plays hard. Kyle Lowry is an aging, undersized player with physical limitations, but he is very intelligent and he has a bulldog mentality. The Heat's role players understand their roles, accept their roles, and are prepared to perform every game. In retrospect, perhaps it is more surprising that the Heat had a mediocre regular season--injuries obviously had an impact, though they are showing the ability to overcome injuries during their playoff run--than that they are performing at a high level in the playoffs.

Labels: Bam Adebayo, Jalen Brunson, Jimmy Butler, Julius Randle, Miami Heat, New York Knicks

posted by David Friedman @ 11:47 PM

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