20 Second Timeout

2021-2022 Western Conference Preview

If the L.A. Lakers stay healthy then they will be the best team in the Western Conference. The addition of Russell Westbrook is a major positive, regardless of the ridiculous anti-Westbrook narratives conjured up by various media members.

The Phoenix Suns were the surprise team in an unusual season during which several top contenders suffered devastating injuries. The Suns look real in terms of being a contender, but a return trip to the NBA Finals is not likely barring a repeat of all of the misfortunes that struck down deeper, more talented teams.  

The Utah Jazz will be saddled with the label that they are built for the regular season and not the postseason unless/until they at least advance to the NBA Finals. The Denver Nuggets have had more playoff success than the Jazz in recent years (including a trip to the 2020 Western Conference Finals sandwiched around a pair of second round losses), but a similar label dogs the Nuggets as well.

If/when Kawhi Leonard will return this season is the obvious main question pertaining to the L.A. Clippers. The secondary question if Leonard returns and is able to play at a high level revolves around Paul George's ability to be an effective second option alongside Leonard. Paradoxically, George often plays better when Leonard is out of the lineup, yet George has already demonstrated that he cannot be the top option on a championship team; George is best suited to being the number two option, yet he is not always comfortable in that role.

This preview has the same format as my Eastern Conference Preview; the following eight teams are ranked based on their likelihood of making it to the NBA Finals:

1) L.A. Lakers: Injuries derailed the 2020 NBA champions, so the Lakers reloaded their roster and added a lot of talent and depth, including 2017 regular season MVP Russell Westbrook, Rajon Rondo, Dwight Howard, Trevor Ariza, and Carmelo Anthony. If the Lakers could enter a time machine and go back about four or five years then they would be poised to be one of the most dominant teams ever. As things stand now, James is more injury-prone than he was when he was younger, but when he is healthy he is still an MVP-caliber player, and Anthony Davis--who has always been injury-prone--is likewise an MVP-caliber player when he is healthy. Westbrook played at an MVP-caliber level in the latter portion of last season after overcoming COVID-19 and injuries. If James, Davis, and Westbrook are healthy during the playoffs then this team will be very difficult to beat. Concerns about chemistry and on-court fit will be proven to be baseless if the Big Three players are healthy.

Rondo, Howard, Ariza, and Anthony do not have to be anywhere close to as good as they were in their primes. Rondo is the team's third best playmaker behind James and Westbrook. Howard has proven that he can still be an effective paint presence for short spurts. Ariza has been a solid contributor throughout his career, including his first stint with the Lakers when Kobe Bryant led the team to the 2009 championship. Anthony is a one dimensional player who does not score as productively or efficiently as he did during his prime, but if he can accept being a 15-20 mpg player whose minutes could fluctuate due to matchups then at this stage of his career he can be the sixth or seventh best player on a championship-caliber team.

If the Lakers are healthy, they will win the West, and it would be fascinating to see prime Giannis Antetokounmpo versus elder statesman LeBron James in the NBA Finals.

2) Utah Jazz: The Jazz had the best record in the Western Conference but they have not reached the NBA Finals since the glory days of Karl Malone and John Stockton. On paper, this team has everything needed to win a championship: great defense, versatile and efficient offense, star players, role players who accept their roles. Yet, something is missing. The L.A. Clippers sans Kawhi Leonard eliminated the Jazz in six games in the second round. Utah's defense fell apart as the Clippers scored 131 points in game six and the Clippers scored at least 118 points in each of the final four games of that series as they stormed back from a 2-0 deficit. 

Maybe I am overrating the Jazz, but the positive qualities that they displayed on both ends of the court over a 72 game season should mean something, and perhaps this painful playoff defeat will provide motivation to take the next step. Many people wrote off the Milwaukee Bucks after they lost in the playoffs as a number one seed, and the Bucks bounced back to win the championship.

3) Phoenix Suns: Chris Paul deserves credit for having an impact on this team, but the Suns were already rising before he arrived. The Suns went 8-0 in the 2020 "bubble" to just miss the playoffs, and they have a stable of young stars, including Devin Booker and Deandre Ayton. The Suns' journey to the 2021 NBA Finals was not a fluke, but the Suns did benefit from misfortunes suffered by rival teams, and Paul is a small, aging guard. The Suns will stay near the top of the West this season, but I would be surprised if they return to the NBA Finals. 

4) Golden State Warriors: Stephen Curry had a great season in 2020-21 after missing all but five games in 2019-20 due to injury, but even his remarkable sharpshooting was not enough to lift the Warriors to the eighth seed. That puts into context how incredible it is that Kobe Bryant carried the Lakers to the playoffs in 2006 and 2007 with a much weaker roster than the Warriors had last season. 

Klay Thompson will return to action this season, but it is uncertain when he is coming back, and when a player has been out as long as he has there is always a concern about whether he can regain his previous form.

If Curry, Thompson, and Draymond Green are healthy at playoff time, this team is obviously dangerous. The young players must continue to develop, and the status of Andrew Wiggins (who remains unvaccinated and thus is currrently ineligible to play in all of the Warriors' home games, and possibly other games as well) must be clarified before we know for sure how far this team can go, but it is doubtful that sans Kevin Durant this core group will return to the NBA Finals. Without Durant, the Warriors won one championship against an injury-riddled Cleveland team in 2015, and then lost in the Finals to a healthier version of that team in 2016. Durant was the driving force behind the back to back championships in 2017-18, and there is no way to replace his contributions.

5) Denver Nuggets: If Jamal Murray returns in time and in form then the Nuggets could be very dangerous in the playoffs, but if the Nuggets do not get off to a quick start then they may not have home court advantage in any playoff series, which is a tough way to try to win a title. Nikola Jokic is an elite scorer, rebounder, and passer who deserved the 2021 regular season MVP, but he needs more help to lift this team to elite status.

6) Dallas Mavericks: Luka Doncic looks like he will be an MVP candidate for the foreseeable future. Can Kristaps Porzingis be the second option on a championship contender? Can/will the Dallas Mavericks improve defensively? Jason Kidd replaces Rick Carlisle on the bench, and perhaps a new voice will squeeze something extra out of this roster, but the Mavericks do not look like a top four seed.

7) L.A. Clippers: Kawhi Leonard has led two different franchises to a championship, but he has yet to take the Clippers even close to the basketball Promised Land; they lost in the second round in 2020, and then advanced to the Western Conference Finals last season even after he suffered a season-ending ACL injury in game five of the second round. Don't be fooled by the Clippers finishing off Utah without Leonard before bowing to the Suns in the Western Conference Finals; if Leonard misses a significant portion of the season, this is not a top four team in the West.

8) Portland Trail Blazers: Rookie Coach Chauncey Billups has his hands full with a team that has unreasonably high expectations both internally and from the fan base. The team's fluky run to the 2019 Western Conference Finals has been followed by back to back first round losses. The resumption of Carmelo Anthony's career in Portland was much hyped by the media, but contributed nothing to the team's development; his departure to the Lakers may help the Lakers, but will not hurt Portland very much. This team relies on offense, yet is not very efficient offensively, ranking just 23rd in field goal percentage last season. Portland was even worse defensively, ranking 25th in defensive field goal percentage. When a team does not score efficiently and cannot stop the opposition from scoring efficiently it is not realistic to expect much more than a low playoff seed and a first round exit.

The remaining Western Conference teams have glaring weaknesses. 

Without Tim Duncan and Kawhi Leonard, Coach Gregg Popovich has not exactly set the basketball world on fire in San Antonio. The Spurs missed the playoffs in 2020, and finished 10th in the West last season before losing a Play-In Tournament game to Memphis. The Spurs have slipped defensively in recent years, and until Popovich reverses that trend this team is going nowhere fast.

The Memphis Grizzlies qualified for the Play-In Tournament and then knocked out the Golden State Warriors, defying the laws of basketball physics that supposedly demand that Stephen Curry's "gravity" controls the basketball universe. However, their offseason moves did not strengthen the team's talent or depth, and the best case scenario is sneaking into the playoffs via the Play-In Tournament.

As long as the New Orleans Pelicans have Zion Williamson, they will always be the darlings of the major television networks, but there is a big difference between being hyped up and featured on television versus being a team that is committed to winning. Williamson is a very efficient scorer but he is a below average rebounder for his size/skill set/position, and he is a subpar defensive player. His deficiencies in those two key areas set the tone for the team, and the results are not surprising.

The Sacramento Kings are good enough to hang around the fringes of the Play-In Tournament.

The Oklahoma City Thunder are developing their young players and stockpiling draft picks, and they appear to be at least one season away from fighting for the final playoff spot.

The Minnesota Timberwolves are plagued by organizational chaos, resulting in a mismatched roster that has some individual talent but little clue how to translate that talent into group success. 

After James Harden wrecked the franchise by coming into camp out of shape and pouting his way out of town, the Houston Rockets sank to the bottom of the Western Conference. The best that the Rockets can realistically hope for is to avoid landing in the basement again.

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Note:

I correctly picked six of the eight 2021 Western Conference playoff teams. Here are my statistics for previous seasons:

2020: 6/8
2019: 7/8
2018: 6/8
2017: 7/8
2016: 6/8
2015: 7/8
2014: 6/8
2013: 6/8
2012: 7/8
2011: 5/8
2010: 7/8
2009: 7/8
2008: 7/8
2007: 6/8
2006: 6/8

2006-2021 Total: 102/128 (.797)

Labels: Dallas Mavericks, Denver Nuggets, Golden State Warriors, L.A. Clippers, L.A. Lakers, Phoenix Suns, Portland Trail Blazers, Utah Jazz

posted by David Friedman @ 10:25 PM

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