20 Second Timeout

Rockets Acquire Kevin Durant From Suns in Exchange for Dillon Brooks, Jalen Green, and Six Draft Picks

The Houston Rockets acquired Kevin Durant from the Phoenix Suns in exchange for Jalen Green, Dillon Brooks, the 10th overall pick in the 2025 NBA Draft, and five second round draft picks, but the transaction will not become official until July 6 when the NBA's new year begins*. Last season, the Rockets earned the second seed in the Western Conference with a 52-30 record before losing 4-3 in the first round to the Golden State Warriors; the Rockets were strong defensively, but they ranked just 21st in the league in field goal percentage (.455), and they shot .446 from the field in their playoff loss to the Warriors. The Rockets expect Durant's elite scoring and solid playmaking to provide a major boost to their anemic offense.

There is no disputing Durant's talent and productivity. The 2014 regular season MVP and two-time NBA champion/two-time NBA Finals MVP (2017, 2018) is a four-time regular season scoring champion (2010-12, 14) and five-time playoff scoring champion (2011, 2013-14, 2016, 2019) who ranks eighth in ABA-NBA regular season career points (30,571) and seventh in ABA-NBA playoff career points (4985). Durant owns the sixth highest ABA-NBA career regular season scoring average (27.2 ppg) and the fourth highest ABA-NBA career playoff scoring average (29.3 ppg). Durant, who turns 37 in September, averaged 26.6 points, 6.0 rebounds and 4.2 assists in 62 games last season while becoming the ninth member of pro basketball's 30,000 point club. The future Hall of Famer has averaged at least 25 ppg while shooting at least .500 from the field and at least .400 from three point range for three straight seasons, the longest such streak in ABA-NBA history.

Despite Durant's success, he has rarely seemed happy--let alone content--during his long and distinguished career. He fled Oklahoma City for Golden State in 2016 after leading the Thunder to game seven of the 2016 Western Conference Finals versus the Warriors, and then he orchestrated a move to Brooklyn in 2020 after winning two championships with the Warriors.  

After Durant forced his way from Golden State to Brooklyn, I discussed his perpetual dissatisfaction:

There is a clear pattern here. Durant never feels happy or satisfied, no matter how much those around him cater to his needs and his expressed wants. The Thunder built their team around Durant, but he left; the Warriors embraced Durant from day one, built their team around him, but he left despite having the most successful all-around seasons of his career. Durant's comment that Golden State could not "alter anything in my basketball life" is odd, unless he values his individual honors and achievements over team success: he did not obtain ultimate team success until he joined a team that had already won a title just two years before he arrived...

Durant may win multiple titles in Brooklyn, or he may not win any titles. He may reestablish himself as an elite player after missing a full season due to a significant injury, or he may never return to his old form. Based on past experience, though, one thing seems certain: he will not be happy--and that is sad. 

Durant played just 129 games in three seasons with the Nets before forcing his way to Phoenix, where he played just 145 games in three seasons. Durant enjoyed his greatest team success in Oklahoma City and Golden State, and he has had very little team success since leaving the Warriors. Between 2011 and 2019, Durant played in the Western Conference Finals six times, played in the NBA Finals four times, and won two titles; his Warriors reached the 2019 Western Conference Finals but he did not play due to injury, returning for one game in the 2019 NBA Finals before rupturing his right Achilles, causing him to miss the rest of the 2019 NBA Finals plus all of the 2019-20 regular season. Since leaving the Warriors, Durant has not reached the Conference Finals, he has advanced past the first round just twice, and he missed the playoffs last season. His post-Golden State resume includes a 2-4 playoff series record, and a 10-18 record in playoff games, including being on the wrong end of two first round sweeps.

It is understandable why the Rockets believe that acquiring Durant will improve their chances to win a title; they are already a big, physical, defensive-minded team, so adding a two-time champion who is an elite scorer seems to make their roster complete--but Durant has only made deep playoff runs when he was 30 or younger and playing alongside a dynamic, MVP-caliber guard (first Russell Westbrook, then Stephen Curry). Durant is seven years removed from his last deep playoff run, and the Rockets do not have--and do not seem likely to acquire--a dynamic, MVP-caliber guard.

Barring significant injuries, the Rockets are likely to win more than 50 games, and they should not lose again in the first round--but, beyond that, their future is less clear. Drama and discontent follow Durant, so it is premature to assume that the Rockets are a lock to reach the 2026 Western Conference Finals. The best case scenario is that Durant's efficient shooting opens up the floor for Alperen Sengun, Amen Thompson, and Fred VanVleet and that Durant is willing to buy in to Houston's gritty defensive style--but the worst case scenario is that within two years Durant is unhappy yet again and forcing his way out of town.

* July 7, 2025 update: The Durant trade has been consolidated into a record-setting seven team trade, with these terms, per NBA.com:

The Rockets receive:

Kevin Durant

Clint Capela

The Suns receive:

Jalen Green

Dillon Brooks

Khaman Maluach (No. 10 overall)

Rasheer Fleming (No. 31 overall)

Koby Brea (No. 41 overall)

Daequan Plowden

2026 second-round pick

2032 second-round pick

The Nets receive:

2026 second-round pick

2030 second-round pick

The Warriors receive:

Alex Toohey (No.  52 overall)

Jahmai Mashack (No. 59 overall)

The Hawks receive:

David Roddy

2031 second-round pick

Cash 

The Lakers receive:

Adou Thiero (No. 36 overall)

Cash 

Timberwolves receive:

Rocco Zikarsky (No. 45 overall)

2026 second-round pick

2032 second-round pick

Cash

Labels: Brooklyn Nets, Dillon Brooks, Houston Rockets, Jalen Green, Kevin Durant, Oklahoma City Thunder, Phoenix Suns

posted by David Friedman @ 3:00 PM

14 comments

Nikola Jokic Posts First 30-20-20 Stat Line in Pro Basketball History

Last night, Nikola Jokic posted historic numbers--31 points, 22 assists, 21 rebounds--as his Denver Nuggets defeated the Phoenix Suns 149-141 in overtime. Jokic dominated the overtime with five points, five assists, three rebounds, and one steal. This is not only the first 30-20-20 stat line in pro basketball history, but Jokic broke Wilt Chamberlain's 47 year old record for single game assists by a center (Chamberlain had 22 points, 25 rebounds and 21 assists for the Philadelphia 76ers in a 131-121 win versus the Detroit Pistons on February 2, 1968). Jokic joined his teammate Russell Westbrook and Chamberlain as the only three players in pro basketball history to have a 20-20-20 game. This was Jokic's seventh 15-15-15 game this season and the 14th of his career, tying two Oscar Robertson records.

It is unfortunate that the NBA and its media partners ignore ABA numbers when discussing all-time records, but it should be noted that Julius Erving had 26 points, 20 rebounds, and 15 assists in a 138-91 playoff victory versus Rick Barry's New York Nets on April 13, 1972. Erving was a rookie when he accomplished that feat, and--as far as I can determine--Jokic is the only other player in pro basketball history to notch a 26-20-15 game (in addition to last night's performance, Jokic had a 35-22-17 game versus Sacramento on January 23, 2025).

Jokic now has 29 triple doubles in 2024-25, matching his career-high for a season, and tying for sixth on the all-time single season list behind Westbrook (42 in 2016-17), Robertson (41 in 1961-62), Westbrook (38 in 2020-21), Westbrook (34 in 2018-19), and Chamberlain (31 in 1967-68). Side note: as long as you are not brainwashed by Amin Elhassan and Zach Harper or LeBron James' p.r. man Dave "Vampire" McMenamin, you understand that Westbrook is an all-time great. 

The prevailing media narrative seems to be that Oklahoma City's Shai Gilgeous-Alexander will win the 2024-25 regular season MVP award. Gilgeous-Alexander is having a great season for the West-leading 52-11 Thunder; he ranks first in the NBA in scoring (career-high 32.8 ppg), second in steals (1.8 spg), and eighth in free throw percentage (.898). Gilgeous-Alexander has no skill set weaknesses, and there is nothing negative to say about his game--but Jokic is nearly averaging a triple double and he is poised to become the first player in pro basketball history to rank in the top three in scoring (28.9 ppg, third), rebounding (12.9 rpg, third), and assists (10.6 apg, second). I explained my MVP criteria in an article handicapping the 2017 MVP race, and my MVP criteria remain the same: "My philosophy about the MVP award remains unchanged; the MVP should be the best all-around player in the league, unless there is a player who is so singularly dominant in one or two phases of the game that this dominance makes him more valuable than the league's best all-around player at that time. So, Shaquille O'Neal should have won several MVPs (instead of just one) even though he was never the best all-around player in the league; his dominance in the paint made him more valuable than anyone else during his prime."

O'Neal averaged more than 28.9 ppg three times in his 19 season career, and he averaged more than 12.9 rpg three times; he exceeded both of those numbers in the same season just twice, and in one of those seasons (2000-01) he captured his lone regular season MVP. Jokic is putting up "Shaq-like" numbers as a dominant big man and he is the best all-around player in the league as signified by his scoring/rebounding/passing excellence, so I would designate him as the clear choice for 2024-25 MVP--not based on one game, but based on his season-long triple double dominance.

Labels: Denver Nuggets, Julius Erving, Nikola Jokic, Oklahoma City Thunder, Oscar Robertson, Phoenix Suns, Russell Westbrook, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Virginia Squires, Wilt Chamberlain

posted by David Friedman @ 11:11 PM

1 comments

Notes About the 2024 Christmas Day Quintupleheader

This is the 17th consecutive year that the NBA had a Christmas Day quintupleheader, and the 77th year that the NBA played games on Christmas Day, a tradition that began during the league's second season. The 2024 Christmas Day quintupleheader featured the reigning NBA champion Boston Celtics, the reigning Western Conference champion Dallas Mavericks, the 2023 NBA champion Denver Nuggets, the 2022 NBA champion Golden State Warriors, and the 2020 NBA champion L.A. Lakers (granted, the latter three teams have significantly different rosters now than they did when they won their respective championships).

Game One: New York Knicks 117, San Antonio Spurs 114

1) The Knicks started this season 4-5, but they went 15-5 in their next 20 games to vault up to third in the Eastern Conference standings behind Cleveland and Boston. The Knicks have a very efficient offense paced by Karl-Anthony Towns (24.7 ppg with .537/.456/.841 shooting splits) and Jalen Brunson (24.6 ppg with .488/.434/.814 shooting splits). Their defense was shaky during the first nine games, but improved in the next 20 games. 

After posting back to back 22-60 seasons, the Spurs entered this game with a respectable 15-14 record. Victor Wembanyama, the 2024 Rookie of the Year, is averaging 24.8 ppg and leading the league with 4.0 bpg after leading the league last season with 3.6 bpg.

2) On November 8, 2023, the Knicks dominated the Spurs 126-105 the first time that Wembanyama faced the Knicks in Madison Square Garden, and Wembanyama had just 14 points on 4-14 field goal shooting. Wembanyama's second visit to Madison Square Garden went much better individually as he scored a game-high 42 points on 16-31 field goal shooting while also ripping down a game-high 18 rebounds, but his heroics were not enough to deliver a win. Wembanyama had a game-high four blocked shots and he dished for four assists while accumulating a +7 plus/minus number, but three of the Spurs' five starters had negative plus/minus numbers as the Knicks outscored the Spurs by 10 points in the non-Wembanyama minutes. Jeremy Sochan had 21 points and nine rebounds, but he also tallied a game-high five turnovers along with a -12 plus/minus number. 

Mikal Bridges scored a team-high 41 points, just four points short of his career high and the second most points scored by a Knick on Christmas Day, trailing only Bernard King's legendary 60 point outburst in 1984. Bridges shot 17-25 from the field in his highest scoring game with New York. Towns battled foul trouble to finish with 21 points and nine rebounds, but he posted a game-worst -13 plus/minus number (tied with the Spurs' Devin Vassell). Brunson added 20 points, a game-high nine assists (tied with the Spurs' Tre Jones), and seven rebounds, but he shot just 7-23 from the field. Josh Hart chipped in 12 points, a team-high 12 rebounds, and six assists. The Knicks outrebounded the Spurs 47-45, and outscored the Spurs in the paint 58-50.

The Knicks led 28-27 at the end of the first quarter, outrebounding the Spurs 17-12 but shooting just 11-28 (.393) from the field. The Knicks outscored the Spurs in the paint, 18-10. Wembanyama scored 10 points on 3-9 field goal shooting, but no other Spur had more than four points. Bridges (nine points), Towns (eight points), and Brunson (seven points) paced the Knicks.

The Spurs flipped the script in the second quarter, outrebounding the Knicks 16-4 and outscoring the Knicks in the paint 22-10 to take a 58-51 halftime lead. Wembanyama had 24 points, 11 rebounds, four assists, and two blocked shots in the first half.

The Knicks closed the third quarter with a 10-0 run--capped by a Bridges three pointer off of a slick Brunson feed--to lead 88-83 heading into the final stanza.

Jones' three point play with 7:16 remaining in the fourth quarter put the Spurs up 102-94, but Bridges scored 12 points down the stretch (and 15 fourth quarter points overall) to lift the Knicks to a hard-earned win.

3) This game is a good example of the small yet not so small differences between a playoff-hardened team that knows how to win and a team that has not yet learned how to win; like most NBA games, this contest featured runs by both teams and excellent individual performances by players from both teams, but down the stretch the Knicks executed better at both ends of the court. After Chris Paul's three pointer cut the Knicks' lead to three with 41.7 seconds remaining, the Knicks secured two offensive rebounds in the final 17 seconds, enabling them to run out the clock and deny the Spurs a chance to tie the game.

Game Two: Minnesota Timberwolves 105, Dallas Mavericks 99

1) This game is a rematch of the 2024 Western Conference Finals, a series that the Mavericks won 4-1 to advance to the NBA Finals. The Mavericks have picked up where they left off last season, and are in a tight three way battle with Houston and Memphis for the second seed in the Western Conference behind the Oklahoma City Thunder. In contrast, the Timberwolves have slipped significantly after trading Karl-Anthony Towns for Julius Randle, Donte DiVincenzo, and other considerations; contrary to the popular notion that small ball is the way to go, the aftermath of this trade is demonstrating yet again that size matters in the NBA. Towns is leading the NBA in rebounding (13.9 rpg) for the Knicks, while the Timberwolves have dropped from 15th in the league in rebounding last season to 23rd this season sans Towns.

2) The Timberwolves only led 26-24 at the end of the first quarter, but they were already up 42-35 with 6:21 remaining in the second quarter when Luka Doncic was sidelined with a left calf injury. Doncic, who scored 14 points on 5-9 field goal shooting in 16 minutes, was unable to return to action, and the Timberwolves exploited his absence to push the margin to 17 points (57-40) by halftime. Dallas players not named Doncic shot 9-34 (.265) from the field in the first half. Despite not playing in the second half, Doncic was the Mavericks' second leading scorer for the entire game.

The Timberwolves led 90-62 with just 1:23 remaining in the third quarter. ESPN commentator Jay Bilas talked about how much fun Minnesota was having. The Mavericks ended the quarter with a 6-0 run, but that just looked like window dressing. However, the Timberwolves scored just seven points in the first 8:42 of the fourth quarter, and they were clinging to a 101-99 lead after Klay Thompson drilled a three pointer at the 1:05 mark. After an Anthony Edwards turnover, Kyrie Irving missed a three pointer that would have put the Mavericks up by one, and the Timberwolves closed out the scoring with an Edwards layup followed by two Randle free throws. 

Edwards scored a team-high 26 points while also grabbing eight rebounds and passing for five assists. Randle contributed 23 points, a game-high 10 rebounds (tied with teammate Rudy Gobert and Dallas' Dereck Lively II), and a game-high eight assists.

Irving poured in a game-high 39 points on 14-27 field goal shooting, including 26 second half points on 9-14 field goal shooting. Bilas joined the chorus of media members who call Irving the greatest ballhandler ever without defining what that means or even stating who else is in the running for that subjective honor. Does it mean being fancy and flashy? If so, Irving does not hold a candle to Pete Maravich, who not only could do everything that Irving does and more but was decades ahead of his time with his showmanship. Does it mean controlling the tempo of the game at the highest level for multiple championship teams? If so, Irving does not rank ahead of Bob Cousy, Walt Frazier, Magic Johnson, and Isiah Thomas. Does it mean being highly efficient in terms of assists versus turnovers? If so, Irving (4269 assists, 1885 turnovers, 2.3 assist/turnover ratio) is far behind John Stockton (15,806 assists, 4244 turnovers, 3.7 assist/turnover ratio) both in total assists and assist/turnover ratio. The recency bias displayed even by sensible commentators like Bilas is perplexing; at least Bilas did not overtly disrespect Cousy and other past greats the way that J.J. Redick, Amin Elhassan, Zach Harper, and others have done.

3) One win against Dallas sans Doncic is not enough evidence to prove that the Timberwolves have righted their ship, particularly considering that the Timberwolves almost fumbled the game away. Regarding the Mavericks, they should be concerned not only about Doncic's health--he recently returned to action after missing two games with a left heel injury--but also about how flat they looked in the first half even before losing Doncic.

Game Three: Philadelphia 76ers 118, Boston Celtics 114

1) The Boston Celtics started 23-6 last season en route to posting a league-best 64-18 record before winning their first NBA title since 2008. This season, the Celtics started 22-7, trailing only the red hot Cleveland Cavaliers (26-4) in the Eastern Conference and the 23-5 Oklahoma City Thunder, who have the Western Conference's best record. Jayson Tatum has made the All-NBA First Team in each of the past three seasons, and this season he is posting the second highest scoring average of his career (28.8 ppg) along with career-high numbers in rebounding (9.3 rpg) and assists (5.7 apg).

Under the terms of the NBA's collective bargaining agreement, Joel Embiid is already ineligible to receive any postseason awards because he will not participate in at least 65 regular season games. He entered Christmas Day averaging 20.6 ppg, 6.8 rpg, and 4.1 apg in eight games; his 76ers went 3-5 in those games, and they began the day with a 12-17 record that ranked 12th in the Eastern Conference.

2) The 76ers' highly touted "Big Three" of Joel Embiid, Paul George, and Tyrese Maxey played together for just the sixth time this season. Maxey scored a game-high 33 points on 12-23 field goal shooting while also passing for a game-high 12 assists, and posting a solid +7 plus/minus number. Embiid added 27 points and nine rebounds but he had a game-worst -18 plus/minus number; usually the 76ers are much better with Embiid on the court, but in this game when Embiid played they leaked oil like an old clunker. George was a non-factor with 12 points on 4-15 field goal shooting and a -16 plus/minus number, but Caleb Martin picked up the slack with 23 points on 8-11 field goal shooting, including 7-9 from three point range.

Tatum scored a team-high 32 points, grabbed a game-high 15 rebounds, and passed for four assists with a +5 plus/minus number. Jaylen Brown bounced back from a bad first half to finish with 23 points, Derrick White added 21 points, and the seemingly ageless Al Horford had 17 points. Horford had a game-high +22 plus/minus number, but he and Tatum were the only Celtics with positive plus/minus numbers; the other eight Celtics who played had plus/minus numbers ranging from -1 to -13. Plus/minus numbers in small sample sizes can be "noisy," but it is fair to say that the Celtics won many of the Embiid versus Horford minutes and lost just about every other matchup combination. Horford has had success guarding Embiid over the years, so this is not surprising.

3) Maxey scored 12 points as the 76ers built a 30-25 lead by the end of the first quarter. The 76ers led by as much as 16 during the second quarter before settling for a 66-58 halftime edge after outscoring the Celtics 36-33 in a defense-optional 12 minute stretch. 

Brown scored just two points on 1-8 field goal shooting in the first half but he took over in the third quarter with 14 points on 6-10 field goal shooting, nearly matching the 76ers by himself as the Celtics won the quarter 24-16 to tie the score at 82 heading into the final stanza.

The fourth quarter mirrored the second quarter, with the 76ers outscoring the Celtics 36-32. The 76ers led 108-94 after Martin's three pointer at the 4:29 mark, but Maxey committed three turnovers in the next two minutes as the Celtics pulled to within 108-105. The 76ers did not score a field goal in the final 4:29, but they made enough free throws to survive.

4) To win an NBA championship, a team must be consistently efficient and productive while maintaining the health of its core group of players for over 100 games during the regular season and the playoffs. The 76ers played their best game of the season versus a Boston team without the services of Jrue Holiday and without the services of Kristaps Porzingis in the second half, and they celebrated after the game as if they had just won a championship; this brings to mind the way that Doug Collins used to make note of which teams celebrated after winning a game and which teams acted like there is a lot more work to do. Collins' point was that the teams that expect to win and that understand the bigger picture are more likely to be successful than teams that get too excited about an early season victory.

To win the 2025 NBA championship, the 76ers must maintain this performance level and this health level for about 80 more games--and, based on the individual and collective resumes of their core players, there is no logical reason to expect them to come close to doing that: Embiid never advanced past the second round of the playoffs in his first eight seasons, Paul George has an 8-11 career playoff series record (including 0-3 in the Conference Finals), and Tyrese Maxey has a 3-4 career playoff series record. Maxey is young enough to develop into a consistently great playoff performer, but Embiid and George are who their resumes say they are.

Game Four: L.A. Lakers 115, Golden State Warriors 113

1) ESPN loves to hype up the Lakers and the Warriors, but entering today's action the Lakers were the seventh seeded team in the Western Conference, a half game ahead of the eighth seeded Warriors. That means that these are Play-In Tournament teams, not championship contenders. This should not surprise anyone: the Lakers have not finished higher than seventh in the regular season standings since they won the 2020 "bubble" championship, missing the playoffs once, losing in the first round twice, and making one fluky run to the Western Conference Finals; since 2020, the Warriors have finished higher than seventh just twice while winning one title (2022), missing the playoffs twice, and losing in the second round once.

Three weeks ago, I assessed the first 22 games of the J.J. Redick era, concluding that his 12-10 Lakers "have a mediocre offense and an atrocious defense. They have terrible rebounding numbers, and they often don't play hard. There is zero evidence that Redick is providing any kind of strategic advantage or that he is effective at motivating players to give maximum effort." In their next seven games, the Lakers went 4-3 and did nothing to refute the above analysis.

The Warriors started the season 10-3, and the ESPN hype machine nearly exploded, paying no attention to the reality that five of those wins were against Portland, Utah, New Orleans (twice), and Washington (the three worst teams in the Western Conference and the worst team in the league). The Warriors went 5-11 in their next 16 games, failing to score at least 100 points five times and giving up at least 108 points seven times, reaching a nadir in both directions on December 19 with a 144-93 loss to the Memphis Grizzlies.

2) The Lakers built a 55-52 halftime lead despite losing Anthony Davis to an ankle injury after seven scoreless minutes. The Lakers played better without Davis, who had a -7 plus/minus number during his cameo appearance, but this is small sample size theater, and not an indication that the Lakers would be better long-term without Davis, who is leading the team in scoring (26.6 ppg), rebounding (11.8 rpg), and blocked shots (2.2 bpg) this season. 

LeBron James led both teams with 19 first half points, while Stephen Curry topped the Warriors with 16 points. The Lakers outrebounded the Warriors 24-21 and committed just two turnovers while the Warriors had six turnovers. The Lakers also shot 9-9 from the free throw line while the Warriors were just 1-3 from the free throw line.

The Warriors narrowly outplayed the Lakers in a tightly contested second half, outscoring the Lakers 61-60, outrebounding the Lakers 23-17, and committing six turnovers while the Lakers committed seven turnovers, but the outcome was decided in the exciting final 22 seconds. Before dissecting the ebbs and flows of those last possessions, it should be noted that the Lakers led 104-94 with 3:27 remaining before a 13-5 Warriors run put the outcome in doubt. In other words, better execution by the Lakers could have sealed the win earlier.

The late drama began after Max Christie drained two free throws to put the Lakers up 111-107. The Warriors called a timeout, and then on the ensuing possession Stephen Curry drilled a right corner three pointer over James' outstretched arms. Austin Reaves hit two free throws to make the score 113-110, and the ESPN crew of Mike Breen, Doris Burke, and Richard Jefferson discussed the merits of intentionally fouling before the Warriors could attempt a tying three pointer. Burke noted that when Redick was a commentator he expressed his opinion that teams should always fall in this situation. The Warriors befuddled the Lakers by having multiple players cut through the paint (a distraction that a well-coached team would ignore, because a two pointer would not help a team that is down by three and has no timeouts left), and then Curry nailed a three pointer. Curry did not celebrate, because he knew that the game was tied with 6.3 seconds remaining, which meant that the Lakers had enough time to win the game in regulation. On the Lakers' last possession, Reaves drove from behind the three point line on the left wing all the way to the hoop to drop in the game-winning layup.

There is no doubt that this game had an exciting conclusion with Curry's two spectacular treys followed by Reaves' foray to the hoop, but--as noted above--the Warriors were 5-11 in their previous 16 games and the Lakers have not exactly been setting the world on fire. This game was entertaining and fun to watch, but in June 2025 we will not be looking back and saying that this was a pivotal point in determining who this season's champion will be.

James scored a team-high 31 points on 12-22 field goal shooting, and he had a game-high tying 10 assists. Reaves not only scored the game-winner, but he also had a triple double (26 points, team-high 10 rebounds, 10 assists). Rui Hachimura (18 points), Max Christie (16 points), and Dalton Knecht (13 points) were the Lakers' other double figure scorers.

Curry scored a game-high 38 points on 14-24 field goal shooting, including 8-15 from three point range. Andrew Wiggins had 21 points and a game-high 12 rebounds. Even with Curry, the Warriors are not a great offensive team--and, as the last possession highlighted (losing a game on a drive to the hoop from behind the three point line is suboptimal, to put it mildly), the Warriors are not a great defensive team, either. Being not great at either end of the court adds up to being a .500 team.

3) After spending most of his career missing a lot of games due to various injuries, Davis played a career-high 76 games last season and has only missed one game this season, so it will be interesting to see how long he is sidelined by the ankle injury that he suffered in this game. Speculating about how good the Lakers might be if Davis consistently stayed healthy is pointless unless/until he consistently stays healthy. In Davis' first 12 seasons, he played at least 70 games three times, and he played less than 65 games (the current standard to be eligible for postseason awards) seven times. Davis will turn 32 before the end of this season; is he going to find the fountain of youth/health now after not discovering it during his prime?

Game Five: Phoenix Suns 110, Denver Nuggets 100

1) Nikola Jokic is posting historic numbers this season, ranking second in the league in scoring (career-high 30.9 ppg), fourth in rebounding (12.5 rpg), and third in assists (9.7 rpg) while leading the league in three point field goal percentage (.514). When he is on the court, the Nuggets often look like a championship contender, but when he is not on the court the Nuggets often look like a Draft Lottery team. That explains why Jokic is averaging a career-high 37.1 mpg. The Nuggets have overcome injuries and a thin bench to post the fifth best record in the strong Western Conference.

The Suns entered Christmas Day with a 13-5 record when Kevin Durant played, and a 1-9 record when he did not play; the Suns are a finesse team that often gets pushed around, and they are not very good without Durant.

2) ESPN's Stephanie White correctly noted that Russell Westbrook has had a positive impact on the Nuggets because of the way that he pushes the pace and because of his playmaking. It is refreshing to listen to a commentator who does not make up nonsensical excuses to bash Westbrook, who has proven throughout his career that he is a great, loyal teammate who consistently plays hard. Westbrook entered the game averaging 12.0 ppg, 6.4 apg (second on the team), 4.1 rpg, and 1.7 spg (first on the team) while playing 25.9 mpg and coming off of the bench in 20 out of his first 27 games (the 36 year old is one of just four Nuggets to not miss a game this season). 

3) Devin Booker missed his third straight game, and the Suns were also without the services of Grayson Allen (who is in concussion protocol)--but they had Durant and Bradley Beal, which proved to be more than enough. The Suns built a 58-56 halftime lead by shooting 21-41 (.512) from the field while committing just four turnovers, a high level of offensive efficiency that compensated for being outrebounded 25-18. Durant and Beal scored 14 points each in the first half.

The Suns did not shoot well in the second half (20-46, .435), but they played uncharacteristically well defensively, holding the Nuggets to 44 points on 14-33 (.424) field goal shooting. The Suns had just three turnovers while the Nuggets had nine in the second half alone and 16 in the game. The Suns led by as many as 15 points in the second half, and they did not trail in the fourth quarter.

Denver blew out Phoenix 117-90 in Denver on December 23, holding the Suns to 33-83 (.398) field goal shooting and outrebounding the Suns 46-39; it is clear that game was very much on the Suns' minds during this game.

Durant and Bradley Beal tied for game-high scoring honors (27 points). Durant had a game-high six assists (tying teammates Jusuf Nurkic and Royce O'Neale, and Denver's Jamal Murray). Tyus Jones contributed 17 points and four assists, while Nurkic had eight points, and a team-high 13 rebounds. Jokic led the Nuggets with 25 points and a game-high 15 rebounds, but he had just two assists. Michael Porter Jr. scored 22 points, and Westbrook added 17 points, six rebounds, and a team-high +3 plus/minus number (he was the only Nugget with a positive plus/minus number).

4) One of my favorite plays from this game happened at the end of the first half. Jokic grabbed a defensive rebound with less than five seconds remaining, took a few dribbles, and launched a three pointer from just inside the half court line. What is so great about that? As mentioned above, Jokic is leading the league in three point field goal percentage, but instead of trying to protect his personal statistics he took that desperation heave because if it goes in then it helps his team and if it misses no harm is done because time will run out. There are many players who either will not take that desperation heave, or who make sure to wait until just after time expires before letting it go. Shane Battier once admitted that is the only selfish kind of play that he made during his career, because field goal percentage could matter at contract time.

Analysis of Previous Christmas Day Quintupleheaders:

Notes About the 2023 Christmas Day Quintupleheader (2023)

Notes About the 2022 Christmas Day Quintupleheader (2022)

Notes About the 2021 Christmas Day Quintupleheader (2021)

Notes About the 2020 Christmas Day Quintupleheader (2020)

Notes About the 2019 Christmas Day Quintupleheader (2019)

Several Stars Shine During Christmas Day Quintupleheader (2018)

Christmas Day Quintupleheader Recap (2012)

Comments and Notes About the Christmas Day Quintupleheader (2011)

Thoughts and Observations About the Christmas Day Quintupleheader (2010)

Labels: Boston Celtics, Dallas Mavericks, Denver Nuggets, Golden State Warriors, L.A. Lakers, Minnesota Timberwolves, New York Knicks, Philadelphia 76ers, Phoenix Suns, San Antonio Spurs

posted by David Friedman @ 1:21 AM

8 comments

Suns Spoil Clippers' Home Opener in New Arena

The Phoenix Suns built a 14 point first half lead, fell behind by 10 points with just 6:13 remaining in the fourth quarter, and then rallied to beat the L.A. Clippers 116-113 in overtime, spoiling the Clippers' home opener in Steve Ballmer's new arena. Kevin Durant led Phoenix with 25 points while also posting a team-high seven turnovers. Bradley Beal scored 24 points on 8-12 field goal shooting, and poured in seven of the Suns' 13 overtime points. Devin Booker had a quiet game (15 points, six assists) by his lofty standards. Tyus Jones did an excellent job in his debut as the team's starting point guard, finishing with 11 points, a game-high tying eight assists, and no turnovers. The Suns squandered many late leads last season due to poor execution down the stretch, so slotting Jones in as the starting point guard is meant to solve that problem, and if this game is any indication then that plan will work out well.

This game was a microcosm of James Harden's career: he filled up the boxscore with empty calories, and he disappeared when it mattered the most. Harden's game-high 29 points, game-high 12 rebounds, and game-high tying eight assists will make every "stat guru" drool, but it is worth noting not only that Harden had a -4 plus/minus number but also when and how he accumulated his numbers, because the great Bill Russell used to emphasize during his time as a CBS commentator the importance of when a player puts up his numbers. Harden was a no-show in the first half with four points on 2-11 field goal shooting as the Suns built a 47-39 halftime lead, forcing the Clippers to expend energy playing from behind. Then, he erupted for 16 points on 5-9 field goal shooting in the third quarter as the Clippers outscored the Suns 35-25 to take a 74-72 lead heading into the fourth quarter. In the fourth quarter with the game up for grabs, Harden had eight points on 3-7 field goal shooting with a team-worst -7 plus/minus number. 

The Clippers led 99-90 with 3:52 remaining in the fourth quarter, and then Harden did his thing: he missed a 30 foot three pointer, he missed a floater, he turned the ball over, he missed a layup, and he fouled Durant on a three point play that gave the Suns the lead for the first time in the fourth quarter. Harden then tied the game with a stepback jumper and gave the Clippers a brief lead by hitting a pair of free throws before Durant's fadeaway knotted the score at 103 with 21.2 seconds remaining. Harden missed a floater that could have won the game, and in overtime he did not score a point or deliver an assist. Harden once said that he is not a system player but he is "The system" and that is true if he means that he is "The system" for falling behind early, squandering late leads, disappearing in overtime, and putting up "concert tour" field goal percentages in playoff games.

Unfortunately for the Clippers, their hopes will ride or die with Harden, because two-time NBA Finals MVP (2014, 2019) Kawhi Leonard is out indefinitely with a knee injury. It is becoming increasingly evident that the issue with Leonard is not so much that he is intentionally engaging in load management but that rather he just cannot stay healthy. 

In contrast, the Suns have a much sounder foundation, as they are relying on two-time NBA champion/NBA Finals MVP Durant, supported by Booker and Beal, who are excellent as the second and third options respectively. The Suns replaced Frank Vogel, who is an excellent coach, with Mike Budenholzer, who led the Milwaukee Bucks to the 2021 NBA title.

Labels: Bradley Beal, Devin Booker, James Harden, Kawhi Leonard, Kevin Durant, L.A. Clippers, Phoenix Suns, Tyus Jones

posted by David Friedman @ 11:14 AM

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2024-25 Western Conference Preview

The Dallas Mavericks flipped the script after their 2022-23 late season collapse to reach the 2024 NBA Finals as the Western Conference's fifth seeded team. Luka Doncic and Kyrie Irving proved to be a dynamic duo, while midseason acquisitions Daniel Gafford and P.J. Washington made a huge difference. Gafford and rookie Dereck Lively II formed an excellent one-two punch in the paint.

The Oklahoma City Thunder posted the Western Conference's best record last season before falling to the Mavericks 4-2 in the second round. I hesitate to pick the Thunder as the Western Conference favorite for two reasons: (1) The Thunder tanked for two seasons (22-50 record in 2021-22, 24-58 record in 2022-23), and there is a lot of evidence that tanking does not work; (2) even after the acquisition of Isaiah Hartenstein, the Thunder are still a small team that could be pushed around in the paint.

After winning the 2023 NBA title, the Denver Nuggets have lost some key rotation players--including Bruce Brown and Kentavious Caldwell-Pope--and it has become fashionable to discount them as legitimate championship contenders. However, any team with a healthy Nikola Jokic is a serious threat, and I expect Russell Westbrook to thrive on a team that has a more serious approach than the teams for which he recently played.

The Minnesota Timberwolves did not rest on their laurels after making their first Western Conference Finals appearance since 2004; they traded Karl-Anthony Towns to the New York Knicks for Julius Randle, Donte DiVincenzo, and other considerations. It will be interesting to see if Randle can stay healthy and accept a second option role behind Anthony Edwards. DiVincenzo adds range shooting and toughness.

Although the Western Conference is very deep, there is a separation between the top four teams and the rest of the very good teams. The 2025 Western Conference Finals will likely feature two of the four teams mentioned above.

This preview has the same format as my Eastern Conference Preview; the following eight teams are ranked based on their likelihood of making it to the NBA Finals:

1) Dallas Mavericks: Luka Doncic is a wondrous offensive player who will never be a defensive stopper but who--like previous Dallas superstar Dirk Nowitzki--is learning how to avoid being a liability on the less glamorous side of the court. Last season, Doncic won his first scoring title by averaging a career-high 33.9 ppg while also setting career highs in assists (9.8 apg, second in the league), three point field goal percentage (.382), and triple doubles (21). Much like his Coach Jason Kidd used to be, Doncic is an elite rebounder (9.2 rpg last season) who can get the ball off of the defensive glass and go. Doncic made the All-NBA First Team for the fifth straight year, and he finished third in regular season MVP voting. Injuries limited him at times during Dallas' long playoff run, but he still averaged 28.9 ppg, 9.5 rpg, and 8.1 apg during the postseason. In his first NBA Finals, Doncic produced 29.2 ppg, 8.8 rpg, and 5.6 apg, but he also had nearly as many turnovers (23) as assists (28).

Kyrie Irving embraced the second option role and was highly productive, averaging 25.6 ppg, 5.2 apg, and 5.0 rpg. His production dipped during the playoffs (22.1 ppg, 5.1 apg, 3.7 rpg), but the Mavericks would not have reached the NBA Finals without his timely contributions.

The difference between the 2024 Mavericks and the 2023 Mavericks was the midseason acquisitions of Daniel Gafford and P.J. Washington. Gafford teamed with rookie Dereck Lively II to provide significant paint presence at both ends of the court. Gafford led the Mavericks in blocked shots in the regular season (1.9 bpg) and the playoffs (1.5 bpg). Washington ranked third on the team in playoff scoring (13.1 ppg) and rebounding (6.6 rpg).

The main thing that the Mavericks lacked during the NBA Finals was a reliable outside shooting option to take the pressure off of Doncic and Irving. Enter Klay Thompson, who the Mavericks signed away from Golden State. Thompson is not the defensive standout that he used to be, but he can still spot up in the corner and drain three pointers.

The Mavericks' 2024 playoff run may look fluky because they the Mavericks were only the fifth seed, but if they stay healthy then they will likely earn a much higher seed with Gafford and Washington in the fold for all 82 games.

2) Oklahoma City Thunder: The Thunder may eventually be the first tanking team to legitimately contend for an NBA title. Last season they clinched the number one seed in the Western Conference (on tiebreaks) with a 57-25 record before losing to the underdog Mavericks in the second round. The Thunder attempted to address their lack of size by signing former Knick Isaiah Hartenstein, who joins his sixth team in seven NBA seasons. 

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander remains the centerpiece of Oklahoma City's attack. He finished second in regular season MVP voting after averaging 30.1 ppg (third in the league), 6.2 apg, 5.5 rpg, and 2.0 spg (second in the league). Gilgeous-Alexander earned his second straight All-NBA First Team selection, and he came in seventh in Defensive Player of the Year voting. At 26, he is the elder statesman in a core rotation that includes five players who are 25 or younger. 

The Thunder traded Josh Giddey, who fell out of the rotation during the playoffs, to Chicago for Alex Caruso, who has earned consecutive All-Defensive Team selections after being a member of the Lakers' 2020 championship team. 

I am skeptical of the long term prospects of teams that tanked, but there is no denying that this is a very good team.

3) Denver Nuggets: As long as the Nuggets have prime Nikola Jokic they will be dangerous; in the 2024 Olympics, Jokic led a Serbian squad with just three other players with NBA experience to the brink of a win versus a Team USA squad stacked with future Hall of Famers, including four members of the NBA's 75th Anniversary Team. Yes, the NBA is different from FIBA, but Jokic's triple threat ability to score, rebound, and pass enables him to have a significant impact any time he steps on the court.

The Nuggets have reason to be concerned about Jamal Murray, who did not look great for Canada during the Olympics. He has not played in more than 65 regular season games since 2019--but if Murray is healthy and productive then the Nuggets have as good of a one-two punch as any team.

Signing Russell Westbrook is an under the radar move that could pay huge dividends for a team that has lost some key rotation players (Bruce Brown, Kentavious Caldwell-Pope) since winning the 2023 NBA title. Westbrook is a favorite target for some media members, but he is a perfect fit for this team because the Nuggets are a no-nonsense squad with a championship mindset.

4) Minnesota Timberwolves: The Timberwolves have only won a playoff series in two years--2004 and 2024--and both times they reached the Western Conference Finals before being eliminated. It would have been understandable to just run it back and try to win two more playoff series, but instead the Timberwolves traded Karl-Anthony Towns to the New York Knicks for Julius Randle and Donte DiVincenzo. The deal not only gives the Timberwolves more frontcourt flexibility and versatility but it also relieves a looming salary cap issue that could have become problematic by the end of Towns' huge contract. 

Of course, fans do not care about the salary cap or the dreaded "second apron" restrictions affecting teams that exceed the salary cap; fans care about winning games and winning championships. Did the blockbuster deal bring the Timberwolves closer to making their first NBA Finals appearance? The Timberwolves used their size to overpower the defending champion Nuggets in the second round; now they are smaller, but also quicker and deeper. Randle is a talented wild card: he is a three-time All-Star and two-time member of the All-NBA Team, but he owns a .344 playoff career field goal percentage.

I can't say for sure at this point that the trade made the Timberwolves worse, but I will be surprised if it made them better, and I don't expect them to reach the Western Conference Finals this season.

5) Phoenix Suns: Since losing in the 2021 NBA Finals, the Suns have fired two coaches and remade their roster, but they have only won two playoff series in the past three years. Kevin Durant is still a very productive player at age 36, but since he left Golden State in 2019 he has a 2-4 playoff series record. The Kevin Durant-Devin Booker-Bradley Beal trio was supposed to be a "super team," but last season Beal missed 29 games, and Booker missed 14 games. 

On paper, the Suns look very good, but the on court reality is that when the playoffs roll around the Suns tend to lack the necessary health and cohesion to beat elite teams in a seven game series.

6) Houston Rockets: In his first year with Houston, Coach Ime Udoka transformed the Rockets from a 22-60 doormat to a 41-41 team on the rise. Yes, the Rockets improved their roster by adding veterans Fred VanVleet and Dillon Brooks, but in a vacuum those two players are not worth 19 extra wins; the Rockets jumped from 21st in defensive field goal percentage and 28th in points allowed to fifth in defensive field goal percentage and 14th in points allowed. Those numbers suggest that (1) Udoka has a very good defensive system and (2) the players completely bought in to how Udoka asked them to play.

In his third season, Alperen Sengun emerged as an All-Star caliber player, averaging 21.1 ppg, 9.3 rpg, and 5.0 apg. Injuries forced him to miss the final 18 games of last season, but he is expected to make a healthy return for this season. 

7) Memphis Grizzlies: Last season, the Grizzlies went 6-3 in the nine games that Ja Morant played in before suffering a season-ending shoulder injury. In the previous two seasons, the Grizzlies posted 56 wins and 51 wins. It is true that their roster has changed significantly since 2021, but if Morant stays healthy then this team could be very dangerous. Morant's career playoff scoring average is 27.3 ppg, and he led the NBA in playoff assists in 2022 (9.8 apg), so he is not afraid of the bright lights--he just needs to get his off court life under control, and he needs to stay healthy.

Jaren Jackson Jr. won the 2023 Defensive Player of the Year award, and he has twice led the NBA in blocked shots (2022, 2023). Last season, Jackson's scoring average jumped to a career-high 22.5 ppg, but his blocked shots average dropped from a career-high 3.0 bpg to 1.6 bpg. Rookie Zach Edey may replace some of the physical presence that Steven Adams used to provide, and Edey could either from a twin towers tandem with Jackson or their minutes could be staggered so that Memphis always has a player on the court who impacts play in the paint.

8) Sacramento Kings: After posting the Western Conference's third best record in 2022-23 (48-34), the Kings went 46-36 last season but missed the playoffs because so many other Western Conference teams improved. After the season, the Kings shipped out Harrison Barnes and acquired DeMar DeRozan in a three team deal involving the Chicago Bulls and San Antonio Spurs. The 35 year old DeRozan is an excellent clutch performer, and he shows no signs of aging: he averaged 24.0 ppg last season with shooting percentages and free throw attempt rates above his career norms.

Mike Brown earned the 2023 NBA Coach of the Year award for his exceptional work with the Kings after inheriting a team that ranked 29th in points allowed and 28th in defensive field goal percentage. Those rankings moved to 25th and 29th respectively in Brown's first year at the helm, and improved to 17th and 21st last season. A continued upward progression on defense plus DeRozan's clutch time scoring should add up to a return to postseason play for the Kings.

The teams that finish seventh through 10th in the regular season standings will participate in the Play-In Tournament. The above eight teams are the teams that I predict will qualify for the playoffs, regardless of what the final regular season standings are.

The Western Conference is very deep, and some of the teams listed below that I do not expect to qualify for the playoffs are not that much worse than the teams listed above.

The LeBron James-Anthony Davis L.A. Lakers will always have the 2020 "bubble" title and the 2023 NBA Cup, but their resume as a duo also includes two first round losses plus missing the playoffs in 2022. James undermined Coach Darvin Ham and then hand-picked his podcast partner J.J. Redick as Ham's successor. Redick has proven that he can befriend James and give snarky answers to legitimate questions from media members, but his coaching experience is limited to coaching his son in AAU basketball; it will be interesting to see how well the combination of Redick's overt arrogance and lack of meaningful coaching experience work out for the Lakers, who pretend to have championship ambitions but in reality will be fortunate to qualify for the playoffs. There will be a lot of scrutiny regarding how the Lakers utilize second round pick Bronny James, who averaged 4.8 ppg in his only college season but has the benefit of being James' son (and being the son of the man who hired Coach Redick); as a human interest story, it is cool that LeBron and Bronny have already played together in an NBA preseason game and will, presumably, soon play together in an NBA regular season game--but Bronny has been given a roster spot instead of earning it and that is not a good thing for the Lakers in the long run.

The New Orleans Pelicans may be a sleeper pick for some people, but the Pelicans have not won a playoff series since 2018, when Anthony Davis was the team's best player. Their regular season record has improved in each of Coach Willie Green's three seasons but they have sandwiched two first round losses around a non-playoff season. The Pelicans acquired versatile guard Dejounte Murray, but they traded away centers Jonas Valanciunas and Cody Zeller and they are apparently committed to playing small and at a fast pace. They might want to look at the list of NBA champions to see how many teams won a title by playing small. In the competitive Western Conference, this undersized and injury-prone team will probably be a Play-In Tournament team that falls just short of making the playoffs.

The Golden State Warriors struggled versus the plus-.500 teams last season, which is not surprising for a team that has won just one playoff series since beating the Boston Celtics in the 2022 NBA Finals--and that championship run is the only time that the Warriors advanced past the second round since Kevin Durant left the Warriors after the 2018-19 season. Breaking up the "Splash Brothers" by trading Klay Thompson to the Dallas Mavericks marks the end of an era that saw the Warriors win four NBA titles in an eight year span. Stephen Curry is still a great player but he is not going to lead the Warriors to another title--or even a playoff berth--without a strong supporting cast around him punishing teams for trapping him while also providing a foundation of strong defense.

Free agent Paul George left the L.A. Clippers to sign with the Philadelphia 76ers. The Clippers will miss George's scoring, playmaking, and defense--but they will not miss his documented tendency to disappear during the playoffs. With Coach Ty Lue at the helm and the newly hired Jeff Van Gundy as the de facto defensive coordinator, the Clippers will enjoy a schematic game plan advantage in most games, but that will not be enough to overcome Kawhi Leonard's propensity to be injured and James Harden's propensity to choke at the most important moments.

The San Antonio Spurs tanked to obtain the right to draft Victor Wembanyama, and then Wembanyama had an excellent rookie season that resulted in--drum roll, please--the Spurs winning 22 games, exactly the same number of games they won while tanking away the 2022-23 season. "Stat gurus" swear that they follow science, yet they are blind to the decades of evidence proving that tanking does not work. The Spurs signed 39 year old Chris Paul to mentor Wembanyama, because clearly a player with a 12-15 playoff series record who has reached the Western Conference Finals twice in 19 seasons is just the guy to lead the Spurs into contention. There is no doubt that Paul will be the best post-feeder on this team--an admittedly low bar to clear--and he has wisdom that can benefit young Wembanyama, but Paul would be a better fit as an assistant coach than as a point guard.

Danny Ainge described Utah's defense last season as "horrible" and conceded that the "personnel was not good enough. That's on me." The Jazz did not make any significant personnel additions in the offseason, so based on Ainge's candid assessment there is little reason to think that the Jazz will be a playoff team this season.

The tanking Portland Trail Blazers hit rock bottom last season with a 21-61 record that is the franchise's worst ever excluding years two and three after the franchise's founding in 1970. The path from this abyss just to respectability is far from clear. This is yet another example of tanking at its finest.

**********

Note:

I correctly picked five of the eight 2024 Western Conference playoff teams. Here are my statistics for previous seasons:

2023: 6/8
2022: 5/8
2021: 6/8
2020: 6/8
2019: 7/8
2018: 6/8
2017: 7/8
2016: 6/8
2015: 7/8
2014: 6/8
2013: 6/8
2012: 7/8
2011: 5/8
2010: 7/8
2009: 7/8
2008: 7/8
2007: 6/8
2006: 6/8

2006-2024 Total: 118/152 (.776)

Labels: Dallas Mavericks, Denver Nuggets, Houston Rockets, Memphis Grizzlies, Minnesota Timberwolves, Oklahoma City Thunder, Phoenix Suns, Sacramento Kings

posted by David Friedman @ 2:43 AM

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Sharpshooting Bucks Take Down Defenseless Suns, 140-129

The Milwaukee Bucks beat the Phoenix Suns 140-129 on Sunday even though the Suns were at full strength while the Bucks were missing two-time regular season MVP (2019, 2020) Giannis Antetokounmpo, who was a late precautionary scratch due to lingering hamstring soreness. Damian Lillard scored a game-high 31 points on 10-19 field goal shooting while passing for a game-high/career-high tying 16 assists. Bobby Portis matched Lillard with 31 points, shooting 13-20 from the field and also snaring a game-high 10 rebounds. Portis made all five of his three point shots. Khris Middleton returned to the lineup after missing 16 games with an ankle injury, and he had a major impact, scoring 22 points and dishing for seven assists in just 25 minutes. The Bucks set season highs for three point field goals made (24) and points scored in a half (82) while also tying the NBA record for three point field goals made in a half (18). Their 140 points is the most that they have scored since Doc Rivers took the head coaching reins shortly before the All-Star Game.

Bradley Beal led the Suns with 28 points while passing for seven assists, Grayson Allen added 25 points and a team-high eight assists, and Devin Booker had 23 points, a team-high nine rebounds, and six assists. Kevin Durant entered the game needing 20 points to surpass Shaquille O'Neal on the all-time scoring list, but he finished with just 11 points on 4-10 field goal shooting, though he did have a strong floor game (nine rebounds, four assists, three steals, two blocked shots, and just one turnover in a game-high 41 minutes).

This rematch of the 2021 NBA Finals did not feel like a rematch not only because of Antetokounmpo's absence but also because Booker is the only player or coach remaining from Phoenix' 2021 squad. It is amazing how quickly things change in the NBA, even for franchises that have been successful.  

Hubie Brown provided the color commentary for ABC. His most recent telecast was last Sunday when the Philadelphia 76ers beat the New York Knicks 79-73 in the NBA's lowest scoring game since 2016. Brown's pregame remarks focused on Middleton and Durant. Brown noted that even though Middleton is only averaging around 14 ppg this season he is a proven 20 ppg scorer who can also play the point guard role during crunch time minutes. Brown commented that Durant is so good that he makes scoring look easy, and he pointed out how Durant uses his length to create space to launch uncontested shots. 

Lillard is having a good season by conventional standards, but his numbers are below his career averages in several key categories, including PPG, FG%, and 3FG%. He played poorly in his previous two games, scoring just 27 points on 9-28 (.321) field goal shooting, but he understood the assignment with Antetokounmpo out of action: score efficiently while creating easy scoring opportunities for his teammates. Lillard scored nine first quarter points, but even more importantly he had six assists and no turnovers. Portis led the Bucks with 12 first quarter points on 5-5 field goal shooting. 

The Suns jumped out to a 9-3 lead, but by the end of the first quarter the Bucks led 39-36 and they never trailed again. The Bucks shot 15-24 from the field (.625) in the first quarter and the Suns were not far behind that blazing pace, shooting 14-25 (.560). Brown called the Bucks a "slow defensive recovery team," and added, "You can see early in this game that the defensive end off of the dribble is going to be a problem for Milwaukee." 

Brown amplified his pregame comments about Middleton's importance to the Bucks, calling him "A joy to watch," and praising him as a third scoring option who is comfortable being the second or even first option in clutch situations, which takes pressure off of Antetokounmpo and Lillard. 

Brown, who made his mark as a defensive-minded coach, described the defense in this game as so bad "it's almost outrageous," specifically noting that on many plays a defender was not within four or five feet of the shooter. Brown pointed out that the Bucks' strategy was to trap Booker and Durant out front while playing zone behind the traps.

After Portis made a three pointer from the left wing in the second quarter, he shouted, "That’s for you, Hubie!" Portis gave a similar shoutout to Brown during Milwaukee's 119-98 win over Philadelphia on Sunday February 25. Brown loves Portis' game, and it is nice to see a player who is far too young to remember most of Brown's coaching and broadcasting careers demonstrating such respect for one of the legends of the game.

The Bucks led 82-60 at halftime, mainly because of their record-setting three point shooting, led by Portis' 25 points on 10-13 field goal shooting (including 5-5 from three point range). Brown mentioned that the Bucks shot 2-2 from the free throw line during the first half, and said that this is because the Bucks were "shooting at will in wide open areas." The Suns' defense was so bad that they were not even close enough to the Bucks to foul them, let alone hinder or stop them. 

Brown said that the Suns should approach the second half with the mindset of cutting 4-5 points off of the lead every six minutes. The Suns stuck to that blueprint quite well, helped by the nature of the NBA today: the three point shot is a high variance play, and overuse of the three point shot is a major reason that NBA games so often feature big leads followed by big comebacks. In this game, the Bucks led by as many as 25 points in the second half before the Suns used a 32-13 rally to trim the margin to 100-94 with 1:30 remaining in the third quarter; in less than eight minutes, the Suns transformed a blowout into a potential win. The Bucks quickly built their lead back up to 15 points, but had to withstand one more Phoenix surge that trimmed the deficit to 122-115 with 6:17 left in the fourth quarter. The Suns made their run by utilizing a smaller, more aggressive lineup featuring Durant as the only player taller than 6-7.

Although the Suns outscored the Bucks 35-31 in the fourth quarter, overall this season the Suns have been awful in the final stanza, posting the fifth worst fourth quarter scoring margin in NBA history and blowing 10 fourth quarter leads. Brown attributes the Suns' fourth quarter struggles this season to high turnovers and low field goal percentage.

After the Bucks sealed the win in the closing moments, Brown's broadcast partner Dave Pasch noted that Lillard is the first player in Bucks' history to have at least 30 points and at least 15 assists in the same game. Brown replied that he was fortunate to coach great Milwaukee players including Kareem Abdul-Jabbar, Oscar Robertson, and Bob Dandridge. Brown said that it is important to remind younger viewers that Robertson averaged 30-10-10 in his first five NBA seasons. "That is the impression he made," Brown emphasized. Brown is correct, and in fact Robertson averaged 30.4 ppg, 10.7 apg, 10.0 rpg in his first six NBA seasons. Brown respects the players in today's NBA and he praises Lillard's game when warranted, but Brown did a great job of making it clear that one 30-15 game is not equivalent to averaging 30-10-10 for several seasons in a row.  

This game reflected the strengths and weaknesses that both teams have displayed throughout the season: the Bucks are potentially an offensive powerhouse, but they need Antetokounmpo on the court to provide paint presence at both ends of the court; the Suns' Durant-Booker-Beal trio can be lethal on offense, but collectively the Suns provide little defensive resistance. 

Labels: Bobby Portis, Bradley Beal, Damian Lillard, Devin Booker, Giannis Antetokounmpo, Hubie Brown, Kevin Durant, Khris Middleton, Milwaukee Bucks, Phoenix Suns

posted by David Friedman @ 2:46 AM

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Notes About the 2023 Christmas Day Quintupleheader

The NBA's annual Christmas Day quintupleheader featured the reigning NBA champion Denver Nuggets, the reigning Eastern Conference champion Miami Heat, the 2022 NBA champion Golden State Warriors, the 2021 NBA champion Milwaukee Bucks, and the 2020 NBA champion L.A. Lakers. We also saw the winners of four of the past five regular season MVPs: Nikola Jokic (2021-2022) and Giannis Antetokounmpo (2019-2020). Joel Embiid, the 2023 regular season MVP, did not play due to injury.

Game One: New York Knicks 129, Milwaukee Bucks 122

1) Last season, the Bucks ranked first in the NBA in rebounding and second in defensive field goal percentage. This season, the Bucks rank 11th in rebounding and 16th in defensive field goal percentage. The two main differences are that the Bucks fired Coach Mike Budenholzer and traded Jrue Holiday for Damian Lillard. Budenholzer led the Bucks to the 2021 NBA title, but his replacement Adrian Griffin has never been an NBA head coach. Lillard is a prolific scorer, but he is also undersized and a subpar defensive player. The Bucks are still a championship contender because they have Antetokounmpo--who is perhaps the best all-around player in the NBA--but their declines in rebounding and defense could prove to be fatal weaknesses in the playoffs.

2) It is always special when Hubie Brown calls a game, and it is fitting that Brown--who was an assistant coach for the Bucks from 1972-74, and served as the Knicks' head coach from 1982-87--called this game. I think that Brown's previous ESPN telecast was Minnesota's 102-94 win versus San Antonio on December 6.

Brown pointed out that Milwaukee's 9-1 December record prior to this game had been fueled by their powerful fast break attack, and he said that a key factor for the Knicks would be matching up with the Bucks in the open court. Brown's analysis proved prescient, as the Knicks outscored the Bucks 23-12 in fast break points--an advantage that more than provided the margin of victory.

Brown praised the Knicks' pressure defense against Lillard in the opening minutes of the first quarter, while noting that the Knicks may not be able to maintain that pressure all game. Brown mentioned that Lillard ranks fifth in ABA/NBA history in three pointers made and said, "That's his game." Brown is correct that three point shooting is a big part of Lillard's game, but I would say that Lillard played into the Knicks' hands by forcing up contested three point shots early in the shot clock; he developed the habit of taking low percentage shots while serving as the number one option for non-contending Portland teams, but there is no excuse for jacking up such shots while playing alongside Antetokounmpo (as well as other Milwaukee players who are capable scorers, including Khris Middleton). 

The Knicks led by as many as 12 points in the first quarter, and were ahead 36-27 after the first stanza. Jalen Brunson poured in 15 first quarter points on 7-10 field goal shooting, and R.J. Barrett added 14 points on 6-10 field goal shooting. Middleton led the Bucks with seven first quarter points, while Antetokounmpo scored six points and Lillard had five points on 2-7 field goal shooting. Brown noted that a major factor was that the Knicks outscored the Bucks 22-10 in the paint. Brown urged the Bucks to attack the paint as they did in their three previous wins this season versus the Knicks, and to stop shooting so many three pointers.

I cannot emphasize enough that--contrary to all of the attention paid to "clutch" statistics--the NBA is a first quarter league, and the matchup advantages and patterns of play from the first 12 minutes often determine the course of play for the entire game. That was the case for this game.

The Knicks led 62-51 at halftime while outrebounding the Bucks 26-22 and outscoring the Bucks 32-16 in the paint. Brunson had 20 first half points on 8-15 field goal shooting, and Barrett scored 18 first half points on 8-13 field goal shooting. Lillard led the Bucks with 12 points, followed by Brook Lopez (10 points), Antetokounmpo (nine points), and Middleton (nine points).

Before the third quarter began, Brown praised Brunson for putting on a clinic in terms of how to score in the paint versus bigger defenders, and how to utilize various moves/countermoves (step-through, fadeaway, spin), noting that Brunson did not just show up and decide to do those moves today: it takes a lot of work to develop and maintain those skills.

Antetokounmpo scored 17 third quarter points and the Bucks trimmed the Knicks' lead to 77-73 midway through the third quarter, but the Knicks outscored the Bucks 21-14 down the stretch to reestablish an 11 point lead, 98-87, heading into the fourth quarter. 

As the Knicks pulled away to build a 16 point fourth quarter lead, Brown said, "If you're a Milwaukee fan, you're upset because you're being outworked in the paint." He added that before the game he never would have expected the Knicks to outscore the Bucks both in the paint and on the fast break.

Last Christmas, the Knicks got off to a fast start versus the Philadelphia 76ers but then faded in the fourth quarter and lost 119-112, but in this game the Knicks did not fall apart down the stretch, and they withstood a late Milwaukee run to end the Bucks' seven game winning streak. The Knicks outscored the Bucks in the paint 72-50. Brunson shredded Milwaukee's soft defense with a game-high 38 points on 15-28 field goal shooting. Hall of Famers Bernard King and Richie Guerin are the only Knicks who have scored more than 38 points in a Christmas Day game. Julius Randle contributed 24 points and nine rebounds, Barrett cooled off in the second half to finish with 21 points, and Immanuel Quickley added 20 points on 7-10 field goal shooting. Antetokounmpo and Lillard each scored 32 points. Antetokounmpo shot 13-24 from the field while grabbing 13 rebounds and dishing for six assists. Lillard shot 10-21 from the field, and he had a game-high eight assists.

This game represented a reversal of fortune from the previous game between the teams; on Saturday, the Bucks beat the Knicks at Madison Square Garden, 130-111. In that game, the Bucks outrebounded the Knicks 53-41, and outshot the Knicks from the field, .527-.441. Antetokounmpo led the Bucks with 28 points on 11-17 field goal shooting while also contributing seven rebounds and seven assists. Brunson scored a game-high 36 points on 15-26 field goal shooting. Brunson is a great player, but it is evident that Lillard is not a good on the ball defender, nor is he effective as an off the ball defender; when Lillard is on the court, the Bucks are playing four on five defense while praying that Lillard will provide a spark on offense.

3) The Knicks deserve full credit for playing well and finally beating the Bucks after losing nine in a row versus Milwaukee, but I would argue that this game tells us more about the Bucks than it does about the Knicks; the Bucks have serious problems defensively, and they will not be able to mask those problems just by trying to outscore teams, particularly in the playoffs versus elite teams. 

Today we saw the Knicks at their best, but by the end of the season I still expect that the Knicks will prove to be--to quote the memorable Dennis Green rant--who we thought they were: a good team that has a chance--at best--to earn the fourth seed and win one playoff series before being bounced in the second round.

Game Two: Denver Nuggets 120, Golden State Warriors 114

1) It is not easy to win back to back championships. The Kevin Durant-Stephen Curry Golden State Warriors are the last team to accomplish this (2017-2018), and the list of the NBA's other repeat champions since 1990 includes some of the greatest teams of all-time, with each featuring at least one member of the NBA's 75th Anniversary Team: the LeBron James-Dwyane Wade Miami Heat (2012-13), the Kobe Bryant L.A. Lakers (2009-10), the Shaquille O'Neal-Kobe Bryant L.A. Lakers (2000-2002), and the Michael Jordan-Scottie Pippen Chicago Bulls (1991-93; 1996-98). Kobe Bryant is the only player in the shot clock era (post-1954) to lead a team to back to back titles without having a Top 75 teammate!

Many "experts" dismissed the Nuggets last season until the Nuggets cliched the championship, and many of those same "experts" are writing off the Nuggets this season, even though the Nuggets' winning percentage so far is better than their winning percentage last season. It is true that five teams have better records than the Nuggets, but would you trust any of those teams in a seven game series versus the Nuggets?

Nikola Jokic is once again having an MVP caliber season, ranking second in the league in both rebounds and assists while averaging nearly 27 ppg. He led the Nuggets on a dominant 16-4 playoff run last season, and he is quite capable of performing similar postseason heroics again. 

2) The Golden State Warriors won four championships by surrounding Stephen Curry with a very talented cast--and, on two of those championships teams, with an even greater player (Kevin Durant)--but this season the Warriors have been heavily reliant on Curry. Not surprisingly, the Warriors are struggling to get above the .500 mark. The Warriors' 2022 championship team ranked second in the NBA in defensive field goal percentage and third in points allowed. With all due respect to Curry--and I have great respect for Curry--he was not the primary (or secondary or tertiary) reason that the Warriors had a dominant defense. This season, the Warriors rank 11th in defensive field goal percentage and 20th in points allowed. Their fourth place ranking in three pointers made--and even their league-leading rebounding--cannot make up for all of those defensive lapses, a problem compounded by the team's high turnover rate.

The Warriors enabled Draymond Green's violent misconduct for far too long, and now he is serving an indefinite suspension after his latest act of on court violence, striking Jusuf Nurkic in the face and then implausibly claiming that he had made accidental contact. Green has long been overrated--the Warriors went 15-50 in 2019-20 when Green did not have Curry and Klay Thompson to carry most of the weight--but there is no doubt that because of the way Golden State's roster is constructed he can play a valuable role when he is able to control his anger management problem. I refuse to give credence to the notion that the Warriors would have won the 2016 NBA title if Green had not been suspended for game five of the NBA Finals; anyone who is going to give Green credit for his positive contributions must also acknowledge that part of the Green package is that his lack of poise/self-control regularly causes him to be ejected and suspended. That is an integral aspect of Green's basketball character, much like some players are chokers and some players are injury-prone. When the Warriors signed up for the Draymond Green experience, they signed up for him losing his cool and missing games, particularly in light of the fact that they repeatedly excused his misbehavior instead of disciplining him.

3) In the first half of this game, ESPN commentator J.J. Redick asserted that Chris Paul's ability to control and direct an offensive possession is "second to none in NBA history." Apparently, Redick has never heard of Bob Cousy, Oscar Robertson, Jerry West, Walt Frazier, Magic Johnson, Jason Kidd, and LeBron James, to name just a few championship-winning playmaking maestros. Of course, we know that Redick has heard of Cousy. Redick's ignorant, shameful comments about Cousy specifically and retired great players in general ensure that no one who loves and understands NBA basketball takes seriously anything that Redick says.

4) The Nuggets built a 24-14 lead in the first quarter, but the Warriors trimmed that margin to 29-26 by the end of the period. The Warriors clung to a 54-53 halftime lead mainly because their reserves outscored the Nuggets' reserves 28-8. Former starter Andrew Wiggins led the Warriors with 10 first half points and a game-high +19 plus/minus number. The Nuggets' Michael Porter Jr. topped both teams with 15 points, while Jamal Murray added 11 points. Jokic had a quiet first half (six points, six rebounds, four assists).

Jokic scored 10 third quarter points on 10-10 free throw shooting and Kentavious Caldwell-Pope also scored 10 points as the Nuggets outscored the Warriors 39-35 to take a 92-89 lead heading into the fourth quarter. Jokic (10 points) and Jamal Murray (nine points) led the way in the final stanza as the Nuggets held off the resilient Warriors to win their fifth straight game. Murray finished with a game-high 28 points on 10-18 field goal shooting, and Jokic had 26 points, 14 rebounds, and eight assists. Jokic shot just 4-12 from the field, but he attacked the basket enough to earn 18 free throw attempts, and he made each of them. Porter Jr. (19 points), Aaron Gordon (16 points), and Caldwell-Pope (16 points) round out a big and strong Denver starting lineup that rivals Boston's starting five as the league's best quintet this season.

Wiggins paced the Warriors with 22 points, while Curry had a quiet game by his lofty standards (18 points on 7-21 field goal shooting, game-worst -26 plus/minus number). This was a rare game during which the Warriors' bench dominated--outscoring the Nuggets' bench 57-15--but Curry and the starters were decisively outplayed.

Game Three: Boston Celtics 126, L.A. Lakers 115

1) After winning the NBA Cup, the Lakers went 2-5 in their next seven games, and heading into Christmas Day the Lakers posted a 10-14 record in their non-NBA Cup games this season. The Lakers placed a lot of emphasis on the NBA Cup, perhaps because they lack confidence in their ability to win the NBA championship. Kobe Bryant, whose Lakers went 5-2 in the NBA Finals, once declared, "You know this franchise does not hang Division banners. It does not hang Conference championships. We hang one banner and one banner only and that's NBA championships. You have to start there. You have to understand that that's what this is."

LeBron James joined the Lakers in 2018. Since that time, he has led the Lakers to one "bubble" title, but the Lakers have also missed the playoffs twice and lost in the first round in 2021. It says a lot about the mentality of the franchise under James' direction that winning the NBA Cup is considered to be banner worthy; the decision to honor the NBA Cup win with a banner will look particularly odd if the Lakers once again lose in the first round of the playoffs.

2) More than a third of the way through the regular season, the Boston Celtics look like the class of the league, not just because of their won-loss record but because of their balanced attack: they rank third in the NBA in points allowed, third in rebounding, fourth in defensive field goal percentage, and sixth in points scored. Other than injuries--which can derail any team--there are only two concerns about the Celtics:

1. Although they have proven that they can consistently reach the Eastern Conference Finals, since 2017 they are just 1-4 in the Eastern Conference Finals--and the one time they reached the NBA Finals, they lost to an undersized Golden State team even after winning game one on the road.
2. Coach Joe Mazzulla has publicly stated that he wants the Celtics to attempt 50 three pointers per game (they currently rank first in the NBA with nearly 43 three pointers attempted per game), and that high variance style of play is not optimal for a championship contender, particularly a team that has so many players who are good at attacking the hoop.

3) The Celtics opened the game with a 12-0 run in the first 2:39, and they led 32-23 at the end of the first quarter. Each Boston starter scored between four and nine points, while Anthony Davis led both teams with 13 points on 6-9 field goal shooting. James had five points on 1-5 field goal shooting.

In the second quarter, the Lakers battled back to tie the score at 52 before the Celtics regained the advantage and settled for a 58-57 halftime lead. The Celtics attempted 24 three pointers in the first half--in line with Mazzulla's goal to attempt 50 three pointers per game--but they made just seven; their poor three point shooting plus the Lakers' scoring advantage in the paint (30-24) enabled the Lakers to overcome their slow start. Davis had 20 points and seven rebounds in the first half, while James had eight points, eight rebounds, and four assists. Three Celtics scored 11 first half points each (Jayson Tatum, Kristaps Porzingis, and Jrue Holiday), and Peyton Pritchard added 10 points off of the bench.

The Lakers took their first lead of the game on their first possession of the third quarter: James posted up Holiday on the right block, backed him down, and converted a short left handed shot over Holiday's outstretched arms. The Lakers are at their best when Davis and James attack the paint on offense and defend the paint on defense. Unfortunately for the Lakers, James did not score again in the third quarter, and their defense collapsed, allowing the Celtics to score 41 points on 12-23 field goal shooting. The Celtics led 99-90 heading into the fourth quarter, and they cruised to victory by outscoring the Lakers 27-25 in the fourth quarter.

Each Boston starter scored at least 18 points: Porzingis led the Celtics with 28 points and a team-high 11 rebounds, followed by Tatum (25 points, eight rebounds, seven assists), Jaylen Brown (19 points), Derrick White (18 points, game-high 11 assists), and Holiday (18 points, seven assists, seven rebounds).

Davis led the Lakers with a game-high 40 points on 15-26 field goal shooting plus a game-high 13 rebounds; when he is healthy and energized he can be a dominant player. Taurean Prince added 17 points, while James had 16 points on 5-14 field goal shooting while grabbing nine rebounds and passing for a team-high eight assists. James has been a dominant Christmas Day performer, but this will not be remembered as one of his great games.

ESPN's Doris Burke suggested that the Lakers' problems are on offense, specifically three point shooting. Does she believe that the Lakers should have to score more than 115 points to win? The Lakers shot .486 from the field, including .406 from three point range; those numbers would rank fifth and first in the league respectively this season. The Lakers gave up 126 points on .506 field goal shooting--including 68 second half points on .545 field goal shooting--and the Celtics outscored them 58-50 in the paint, including 34-20 in the second half. The Lakers lost this game because of their poor defense. 

Game Four: Miami Heat 119, Philadelphia 76ers 113

1) It is sometimes said that absence makes the heart grow fonder, but after James Harden forced his way out of Philadelphia and to Los Angeles, Joel Embiid has been posting scoring/rebounding numbers unmatched by any 76er not named Wilt Chamberlain or Moses Malone. It is doubtful that anyone in Philadelphia has become fonder of James Harden or is thinking wistfully about Harden's annual playoff collapses.

Rebounds are not fungible--despite the pathetic, misguided assertions by Russell Westbrook's critics suggesting otherwise--but the way that Embiid and the 76ers have thrived without Harden running the show indicates that assists are both fungible and overrated, at least in terms of measuring a player's unselfishness and his value as a playmaker. Last season, Harden led the NBA in assists (10.7 apg), but the 76ers ranked 16th in the league in assists and 14th in scoring. Sans Harden this season, the 76ers rank 13th in assists and fourth in scoring; in other words, not only have the 76ers collectively replaced Harden's assists without missing a beat, they are more productive offensively without being limited by Harden's overdribbling, poor shot selection, and penchant to disappear when it matters most.

"Stat gurus" and media members often focus on the exploits of players who rack up a lot of assists but when heaping praise on their favorite players they neglect to note that (1) in recent years scorekeeping standards for assists have loosened in general, and (2) some players (most notably Chris Paul, but I suspect there are others as well) benefit from particularly loose scorekeeping regarding assists. I am not saying that Harden lacks any passing skills, but I am saying that his playmaking has long been overrated, and I am saying that his gaudy assist totals are fungible: his playmaking can be easily replaced, as the 76ers are proving.

2) The Miami Heat are a puzzling team. They don't look like anything special statistically at either end of the court, and they are fighting to stay above the Play-In Tournament line--but they reached the NBA Finals last season after surviving the Play-In Tournament, and they have reached the NBA Finals in two of the previous four seasons, a feat that no other franchise has accomplished during that time span; think about how many "Super Teams" have been built since 2019, and it is remarkable that none of them have reached the NBA Finals more than once (and some of them never reached the NBA Finals). The Heat do not look like an NBA Finalist right now on court or on paper, but we should all know better than to count them out.

3) This game's star power dimmed significantly because of the absences of Embiid (sprained ankle) and Miami's Jimmy Butler (calf strain). The 76ers jumped out to an 18-8 lead, but without Embiid that success was not sustainable, and the Heat closed the first quarter on an 18-4 run to take a 26-22 lead.

The Heat led by as much as 17 points (60-43) in the second quarter, and had a comfortable 63-49 advantage at halftime--but, as the cliche goes, every NBA team makes a run. The 76ers outscored the Heat 37-23 in the third quarter, briefly taking a two point lead before entering the fourth quarter tied 86-86.

The fourth quarter was tightly contested, but the Heat led for the final 10:31, and pushed their advantage to 11 in the last minute before settling for a six point win.

Rookie Jaime Jaquez Jr. scored a game-high 31 points on 11-15 field goal shooting while also grabbing 10 rebounds. Bam Adebayo had an excellent all-around game (26 points, game-high 15 rebounds, five assists), and Tyler Herro contributed 22 points, six rebounds, and five assists. Duncan Robinson scored 16 points and had a game-high +26 plus/minus number. The Heat outrebounded the 76ers 56-36, and they outscored the 76ers 50-46 in the paint; those are the two categories where Embiid's absence was felt the most. Tobias Harris led the 76ers in scoring (27 points), rebounding (seven), and assists (six). Kelly Oubre Jr. scored 25 points and also had seven rebounds. Mo Bamba provided a spark off of the bench with 18 points on 7-8 field goal shooting, and DeAnthony Melton had 15 points, but Tyrese Maxey--who is having an All-Star caliber season--suffered through a miserable game, finishing with 12 points on 4-20 field goal shooting.

Game Five: Dallas Mavericks 128, Phoenix Suns 114  

1) The Mavericks and Suns are two wild card teams that could emerge as legit contenders or end up as first round playoff losers. Both teams have multiple future Hall of Famers, both teams can score a lot of points when at full strength, and both teams are questionable in terms of both defense and depth. 

2) After Kyrie Irving joined the Mavericks last season, the Mavericks plummeted out of playoff contention and did not even qualify for the Play-In Tournament just one season after reaching the Western Conference Finals with Jalen Brunson playing Irving's position. This season, the Mavericks feasted on an easy early schedule, but they have fallen back in the standings recently. Irving has not played more than 60 games in a season since 2018-19, and this season he has already missed 13 out of 30 games (including this one).

3) After losing in the second round for the second consecutive season, the Suns fired Coach Monty Williams, shipped out Chris Paul and Deandre Ayton, and went all in with a "Big Three" featuring Kevin Durant, Devin Booker, and Bradley Beal; that trio has not even spent the equivalent of one full 48 minute game on the court together, so it is not surprising that the Suns are struggling to get above .500.

4) During the first quarter, Luka Doncic scored his 10,000th career point, reaching that milestone in fewer games (358) than any active player. Wilt Chamberlain holds the record for fewest games to score 10,000 career points (236), and Doncic is tied with Bob McAdoo for seventh on the career list behind only Chamberlain, Michael Jordan, Elgin Baylor, Kareem Abdul-Jabbar, Oscar Robertson, and George Gervin.

Doncic's career per game averages in points (28.0), rebounds (8.6), and assists (8.1) are each higher than LeBron James' career per game averages in those categories (27.2/7.5/7.3). Of course, James has posted those averages over a 21 year span during which he has won four NBA championships, while Doncic is in his sixth season and has yet to play in the NBA Finals. 

5) The Mavericks outscored the Suns 36-24 in the first quarter. Doncic had 17 points on 5-6 field goal shooting while also dishing for four assists. Grayson Allen led the Suns with six points, while Durant had five points, and Booker had just two points on 1-5 field goal shooting.

The Mavericks never trailed in the first half, and enjoyed a 64-54 halftime lead as Doncic dominated with 24 points on 7-13 field goal shooting while also passing for eight assists. Chimezie Metu led the Suns with 13 points and 10 rebounds; that is a credit to him, but it is not a great sign for the Suns when their most productive player is an unheralded reserve. Booker had 11 points on 3-9 field goal shooting, and Durant had nine points on 2-7 field goal shooting.  

As noted above in the Miami-Philadelphia recap, every NBA team makes a run. Sure enough, the Suns rallied in the third quarter, and took an 84-82 lead after Allen stole the ball from Doncic and then drilled a three pointer. Allen scored 19 third quarter points, and the Suns led 92-91 heading into the final stanza. Doncic scored 14 third quarter points.

The Mavericks dominated the fourth quarter 37-22. Doncic finished with 50 points, tying Rick Barry for the third highest scoring performance on Christmas Day. He also tied the Christmas Day record for three point field goals made (eight). Doncic shot 15-25 from the field, including 8-16 from three point range. He had a game-high 14 assists, plus six rebounds, four steals, and three blocked shots. Derrick Jones Jr. added 23 points, Dereck Lively II contributed 20 points, and Tim Hardaway Jr. chipped in 18 points. Allen led the Suns with 32 points, and he tied Doncic with eight three point field goals made. Metu had 23 points and a game-high 19 rebounds. Booker added 20 points and a team-high 10 assists, but he had a game-worst -18 plus/minus number. Durant finished with 16 points on 4-11 field goal shooting, plus seven assists and a game-high six turnovers.

Analysis of Previous Christmas Day Quintupleheaders:

Notes About the 2022 Christmas Day Quintupleheader (2022)

Notes About the 2021 Christmas Day Quintupleheader (2021)

Notes About the 2020 Christmas Day Quintupleheader (2020)

Notes About the 2019 Christmas Day Quintupleheader (2019)

Several Stars Shine During Christmas Day Quintupleheader (2018)

Christmas Day Quintupleheader Recap (2012)

Comments and Notes About the Christmas Day Quintupleheader (2011)

Thoughts and Observations About the Christmas Day Quintupleheader (2010)

Labels: Boston Celtics, Dallas Mavericks, Denver Nuggets, Golden State Warriors, L.A. Lakers, Miami Heat, Milwaukee Bucks, New York Knicks, Philadelphia 76ers, Phoenix Suns

posted by David Friedman @ 1:30 AM

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