20 Second Timeout

Thunder Crush Nuggets 125-93, Advance to Western Conference Finals

The Denver Nuggets won game six at home to push the Oklahoma City Thunder to the brink, but the Thunder dominated game seven, 125-93, to advance to the Western Conference Finals for the first time since 2016. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander authored another exceptional performance, pouring in a game-high 35 points (just three short of his playoff career-high) on 12-19 field goal shooting while dishing out four assists. Jalen Williams, who struggled for significant portions of this series, scored 24 points and passed for a game-high tying seven assists. Chet Holmgren added 13 points and a game-high tying 11 rebounds. Alex Caruso chipped in 11 points on 5-7 field goal shooting, but his game-high +40 plus/minus number hints at the large impact that he had beyond the boxscore numbers: he was a menace as an on-ball defender versus Denver's perimeter players, he swarmed the passing lanes as a help defender, and on several possessions he even guarded Nikola Jokic one on one.

Jokic had a solid game by normal human standards--20 points, nine rebounds, game-high tying seven assists--but the Thunder's suffocating defense shut down his teammates without giving him the space to do much damage as a scorer. Jokic had a game-high five turnovers, and it often looked like the Thunder had an extra defensive player on the court; the Nuggets struggled to complete a pass, and they shot just 33-84 (.393) from the field, including 10-45 (.222) from three point range. Christian Braun scored 19 points on 7-14 field goal shooting. Aaron Gordon limped through a grade two hamstring strain--Jokic said that he told Gordon to not play because he risked making the injury even more serious--to finish with eight points and a game-high tying 11 rebounds. Jamal Murry had just 13 points on 6-16 field goal shooting. No other Nugget scored more than six points, and it is worth noting that Gilgeous-Alexander outscored the Nuggets' top two players--Jokic and Murray--by himself.

Russell Westbrook is the eighth highest paid Nugget ($3.3 million, the minimum salary for a 10 year veteran), but the "experts" and the social media crowd will no doubt find some way to pin the loss on him. I've never heard of a team's eighth highest paid player being the deciding factor between winning and losing as the fourth seeded team versus a dominant top seeded 68 win team, but ridiculous anti-Westbrook narratives have become standard fare in NBA circles. For the series, Westbrook ranked fifth on the team in scoring (9.9 ppg), eighth in rebounds (2.7 rpg), sixth in minutes played (22.7 mpg), and tied for fourth in assists (2.4 apg). He has always been a rhythm player who is used to having the ball in his hands, so those numbers are in line with his role and his salary slot. His shooting splits (.348/.219/.696) were poor, but only three Nuggets who played rotation minutes shot better than .440 from the field (Nikola Jokic, Julian Strawther, Aaron Gordon) so the Thunder deserve credit for shutting down the Nuggets' offense. Westbrook averaged 11.7 ppg in the 2025 playoffs (fifth on the team) while contributing 2.6 apg (fourth), 3.7 rpg (sixth) and .9 spg (fourth) with .391/.317/.700 shooting splits. Westbrook has a player option for $3.5 million next season, and it is unlikely that the cash-strapped Nuggets can find a more productive player at that price.

The Thunder outscored the Nuggets 64-42 in the paint, 27-14 on the fast break, and 37-7 in points off of turnovers. The Nuggets jumped out to a 21-10 lead at the 5:31 mark of the first quarter before the Thunder reeled them in and then ran them into the ground; the Thunder ended the second quarter with a 28-14 run to take a 60-46 halftime lead, and the Thunder opened the third quarter by outscoring the Nuggets 21-12 to end all resistance. The Thunder pushed the margin as high as 43 points late in the fourth quarter, and the outcome was never in doubt throughout the second half.

The Nuggets used their size to dominate the paint in a 121-119 game one win to seize homecourt advantage, and the Nuggets led the series 2-1 after prevailing 113-104 in game three but, as is usually the case in a seven game series, the team with the most matchup advantages prevailed. I picked the Thunder to win in six games because I expected that the Thunder's "suffocating defense will rule the day," and even though it took the Thunder seven games instead of six the seventh game highlighted the huge gap between these teams: the Thunder have the right personnel and game plan to at least contain Jokic at times, while the Nuggets can barely run a functioning halfcourt offense versus the Thunder's relentless pressure. ESPN's Scott Van Pelt often referred to the Thunder as a "wagon" during the regular season, but in game seven the Thunder looked like a high speed train racing past a broken down jalopy.

Labels: Aaron Gordon, Alex Caruso, Denver Nuggets, Jalen Williams, Jamal Murray, Nikola Jokic, Oklahoma City Thunder, Russell Westbrook, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander

posted by David Friedman @ 8:40 AM

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Nuggets Silence Thunder to Force a Game Seven on Sunday in Oklahoma City

The Denver Nuggets have pushed the league-leading 68-14 Oklahoma City Thunder to the brink, winning game six 119-107 to extend the series to a seventh game in Oklahoma City on Sunday. The Thunder are nine wins away from capturing the 2025 NBA title and being recognized as one of the greatest single season teams of all-time--and they are one loss away from forever disqualifying themselves from being mentioned in that discussion. It will be interesting to see how the young Thunder respond to the pressure.

Nikola Jokic led the Nuggets in scoring (29 points on 9-14 field goal shooting), rebounding (14), and assists (eight), but he received significant help from Jamal Murray (25 points, eight rebounds, seven assists) and Christian Braun (23 points, 11 rebounds, five assists). Julian Strawther scored 15 points in just under 20 minutes off of the bench, exceeding his scoring output (14 points) from the previous games in the series combined. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander scored a game-high 32 points on 11-16 field goal shooting while dishing for six assists, and Chet Holmgren contributed 19 points plus a team-high 11 rebounds, but the other Thunder players combined to score just 56 points on 24-60 (.400) field goal shooting. 

The Nuggets outrebounded the Thunder 52-40, and the Nuggets overpowered the Thunder physically for large stretches of the game. Denver jumped out to a 30-20 lead late in the first quarter, but the Thunder went on a 38-16 run to go up 58-46 at the 2:05 mark of the second quarter. The Nuggets tied the score at 58 before Lu Dort's three pointer just before the buzzer put the Thunder up 61-58 at halftime. The Nuggets outscored the Thunder 32-21 in the third quarter while winning the points in the paint battle 16-12 and outrebounding the Thunder 17-10. Both teams shot worse than .420 from the field in the fourth quarter, but the Nuggets outrebounded the Thunder 16-6, and exploited those extra possessions to outscore the Thunder 29-25. Jokic scored 11 fourth quarter points.

Jokic has been the best player in the series so far, leading both teams with 29.8 ppg and 14.7 rpg. Jokic is averaging 5.7 apg--well below his regular season average of 10.2 apg--but part of his decline in that statistical category is due to his teammates shooting just .393 from the field. Jokic dominated during Denver's game one win (42 points on 15-29 field goal shooting, 22 rebounds, six assists), and he had 44 points on 17-29 field goal shooting in Denver's game five loss, but in games two-four he averaged 21.3 ppg on 21-63 (.333) field goal shooting; it would not be fair to say that the Thunder shut him down, but the Thunder made him much less efficient and somewhat less productive than usual.  

Gilgeous-Alexander has had an excellent series, averaging 28.8 ppg, 7.0 rpg, and 7.0 apg. Except for his 18 point outing in Oklahoma City's game three loss, he has scored between 25 and 34 points in every game, topping 30 points four times. He is a worthy MVP candidate--and is generally expected to be the winner after finishing second to Jokic last year--but there is no doubt that Jokic is both more productive statistically and more impactful on opposing defenses: Jokic is an elite scorer, rebounder, and passer who punishes opponents physically while also taxing them mentally because he is thinking the game at such a high level. Gilgeous-Alexander is an exceptional player, but a 6-6 guard just cannot affect the game the same way that a versatile big man can.

What should we expect to see in game seven? The Nuggets won game one in Oklahoma City, got blown out in game two, captured game three to maintain homecourt advantage, and then lost two straight games to fall behind 3-2 before winning game six at home to avoid elimination. "Experts" speak about "momentum," but the reality is that (1) each game in a playoff series is a separate entity and (2) over the course of a series what matters most is the exploitation of matchup advantages. I picked Oklahoma City to win this series in six games, based primarily on the notion that the Thunder would use their suffocating defense to wear down the Nuggets, which has not happened so far: the series statistics through six games are skewed a bit by the Thunder's 149-106 game two win, but in the other five games the Nuggets have outscored the Thunder 545-534. It is possible that in game seven Jokic and Gilgeous-Alexander will cancel each other out, and the series will be decided by the Thunder's superior depth overwhelming the Nuggets; that is the most likely outcome. 

However, there are two Denver advantages worth noting: (1) Jokic is capable of skewing everything by putting up a monster stat line (40-plus points, 20-plus rebounds, 15-plus assists) that Gilgeous-Alexander cannot match (his playoff career highs--not in the same game--are 38 points, 13 rebounds, and nine assists), and (2) the Nuggets have several veterans from their 2023 championship team (Jamal Murray, Aaron Gordon, Michael Porter Jr.) who have come through in big playoff games and will not be intimidated by playing on the road in game seven, while the Thunder have only one player who has won an NBA title (Alex Caruso with the 2020 Lakers).

Labels: Denver Nuggets, Nikola Jokic, Oklahoma City Thunder, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander

posted by David Friedman @ 2:59 PM

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Second Round is Upset City!

Three of the four second round series have begun, and the underdog won game one in all three series. Casual fans may not make much of this, but prior to the start of this year's playoffs game one winners went on to win the series 77.1% of the time since 1983-84. In the first round of this year's playoffs, the game one winner went on to win all eight series.

The second round upsets began on Sunday with the Indiana Pacers defeating the Cleveland Cavaliers, 121-112. Cleveland's All-Star point guard Darius Garland missed his third straight game due to injury, and two other Cavaliers suffered injuries during game one that rendered them doubtful for game two: 2025 Defensive Player of the Year/2025 All-Star Evan Mobley sprained his ankle, and key reserve De'Andre Hunter dislocated his right thumb. The Cavaliers shot just 9-38 (.237) from three point range in game one while allowing Indiana to shoot 19-36 (.528) from beyond the arc. Donovan Mitchell scored a game-high 33 points but he shot just 13-30 from the field; high volume, low efficiency shooting by Mitchell has not been Cleveland's formula for success this season, as the Cavaliers have thrived with a balanced offensive attack complemented by an excellent defense anchored by Mobley. Andrew Nembhard (23 points) and Tyrese Haliburton (22 points, game-high 13 assists) led the way for Indiana's high octane offense.

Falling into an 0-2 hole before heading to Indiana for games three and four would be a nightmare scenario for a Cleveland team that led the Eastern Conference standings from wire to wire this season. Mobley scored 20 points on 9-13 field goal shooting while grabbing a team-high 10 rebounds, so if he is limited or unable to play that will be a major blow for Cleveland. Hunter added 11 points on 4-7 field goal shooting in 30 minutes off of the bench.

Last night's games featured two more upsets. Like the Cleveland-Indiana series, health could be a factor in the Boston-New York series, as the Celtics are battered and bruised: Jrue Holiday just returned after missing time with a hamstring injury, Jaylen Brown is battling a knee injury, and the oft-injured Kristaps Porzingis played 13 scoreless first half minutes versus New York before missing the second half due to illness/injury. In game one versus Boston, New York--who went 0-4 versus the Boston Celtics this season--stormed back from a 75-55 deficit with 5:47 remaining in the third quarter to take a 97-91 lead on a Jalen Brunson three pointer at the 3:28 mark of the fourth quarter. Derrick White's three pointer put Boston on top 98-97 with 2:18 remaining in regulation before OG Anunoby's three pointer gave New York a 100-98 lead. Jrue Holiday's layup tied the score, and Brunson's game-winning layup attempt rolled in and out before Jayson Tatum missed a turnaround shot at the buzzer. The Knicks never trailed in overtime as it took the Celtics nearly three minutes to score. 

The biggest story from New York's 108-105 win is not that Brunson and Anunoby (29 points each) outscored Tatum and Jaylen Brown (23 points each) but rather that the Celtics set a playoff record by missing 45 three point shots. The Celtics shot just 15-60 (.250) from three point range, and in the third quarter they fired 19 of their 20 field goal attempts from beyond the arc while getting outscored 30-23. High volume three point shooting is a high variance strategy that can result in dire outcomes, perhaps most notoriously when the Houston Rockets missed 27 straight three pointers in a game seven loss to the Golden State Warriors in 2018. The Celtics won the NBA title last season because they supported their high volume three point shooting with great defense and with an offense that was capable of scoring from all areas of the court when necessary--but in game one versus the Knicks, the Celtics abandoned any semblance of offensive balance in favor of jacking up three pointers without regard to time, score, or matchups. The absence of Porzingis' size hurt the Celtics at both ends of the court, but there is no reason for versatile players like Tatum and Brown to combine to launch 25 three point field goal attempts while only shooting 18 times from inside the arc. This game is a microcosm of the problem with elevating "advanced basketball statistics" above all other considerations; yes, a three point shot is worth more than a two point shot, but that extra point does not mean that it makes sense to keep firing three pointers when other quality shots are available, let alone when doing so results in not drawing fouls, not getting the opposing team into the bonus/foul trouble, and losing control of the tempo of the game. The Celtics can still win this series, but only if they get their minds right along with getting their bodies as healthy as possible.

The 68-14 Oklahoma City Thunder broke the all-time regular season record for point differential, and could be viewed as one of the greatest single season teams ever if they cap off this campaign by winning a title--but if they do not go all the way then they will be relegated into the group of great regular season teams that fell short in the playoffs, including the 2015-16 Golden State Warriors (73-9, lost to Cleveland in the NBA Finals), the 1972-73 Boston Celtics (68-14, lost to New York in the Eastern Conference Finals), the 2006-07 Dallas Mavericks (67-15, lost to Golden State in the first round), the 2015-16 San Antonio Spurs (67-15, lost to the Oklahoma City Thunder in the second round), and the 2008-09 Cleveland Cavaliers (66-16, lost to the Orlando Magic in the Eastern Conference Finals). 

The Thunder led the Denver Nuggets 82-68 with 4:36 remaining in the third quarter, but the Nuggets outscored the Thunder 53-37 the rest of the way to seize homecourt advantage. Nikola Jokic led both teams in scoring (42 points) and rebounding (22 rebounds) while dishing for six assists; the only blemish on his stat line were the game-high seven turnovers. Aaron Gordon had 22 points, 14 rebounds, and the game-winning three point shot with 3.6 seconds remaining. Jamal Murray added 21 points, six rebounds, and six assists. Russell Westbrook scored 18 points off of the bench, and he made the assist pass to Gordon for the final shot. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander played very well (33 points, 10 rebounds, eight assists), and he battled Jokic almost shot for shot in the fourth quarter, with Jokic logging 18 points in the final stanza while Gilgeous-Alexander answered with 13 points. 

The Thunder won the turnover battle by forcing 18 while coughing up just 11, but the Nuggets destroyed them 63-43 on the boards. The Nuggets' advantages in second chance points (27-21) and points in the paint (54-46) loomed large in this tightly contested game. The Thunder used 10 players--nine of whom played at least 13 minutes--while the Nuggets used just eight players (seven of whom played at least 13 minutes), so the impact of fatigue and depth may not be felt until later in this series. 

It seems improbable that all three underdogs will win these series but--based on how well game one winners have done historically--the possibility of one or even two underdogs advancing should not be dismissed.

Labels: Boston Celtics, Cleveland Cavaliers, Denver Nuggets, Indiana Pacers, New York Knicks, Oklahoma City Thunder

posted by David Friedman @ 3:21 PM

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Oklahoma City Versus Denver Preview

Western Conference Second Round

#1 Oklahoma City (68-14) vs. #4 Denver (50-32) 

Season series: Tied, 2-2 

Denver can win if…they bully the Thunder in the paint and slow down the Thunder's transition game. Nikola Jokic followed up his MVP-level regular season (29.6 ppg, 12.7 rpg, 10.2 apg) by averaging 24.0 ppg, 11.6 rpg, and 10.1 apg as the Nuggets outlasted the L.A. Clippers in seven games; only three players have averaged a triple double for an entire postseason: Oscar Robertson (1962, four games), Jason Kidd (2007, 12 games), and Russell Westbrook (2017, five games; 2021, five games). In order to beat the Thunder, the Nuggets will not only need triple double production from Jokic but they will also need their frontcourt of Jokic, Aaron Gordon (18.9 ppg, 5.7 rpg versus the Clippers), and Michael Porter Jr. (10.9 ppg, 5.7 rpg versus the Clippers) to do a lot of damage in the paint. 

How a team scores can often be as important as how much a team scores; by scoring in the paint, the Nuggets can control the tempo of the game to limit the Thunder's easy transition scoring opportunities while wearing down the Thunder's players, putting the Thunder's players into foul trouble, and creating more scoring opportunities from the free throw line by getting into the bonus. If the Nuggets are lured into an up and down game then the Thunder will run them out of the gym because the Thunder are a more athletic and deeper team.

Russell Westbrook, who won the 2017 regular season MVP while playing for the Thunder, could play a key role in this series because of his athleticism and his ability to attack the paint. He averaged 13.8 ppg, 4.8 rpg, 2.8 apg, and 1.3 spg versus the Clippers.

On paper, this series is a mismatch in the Thunder's favor based on each team's overall statistics this season, but head to head these teams have been evenly matched for quite some time; it is not just their head to head record this season that is tied: Denver and Oklahoma City have split their last 16 games versus each other. Of course, the caveat for that statistic is that many of those games were played when Oklahoma City was tanking and the Nuggets were a championship team or at least a championship contender.

If the Nuggets play at their absolute best and the Thunder drop off in any way then the Nuggets could win this series, but the Thunder have a much larger margin for error.

Oklahoma City will win because...their suffocating defense will rule the day. During the regular season, the Thunder led the NBA in points allowed (107.6 ppg), defensive field goal percentage (.436), and turnovers forced (17.0 tpg). They also led the league in fewest turnovers committed (11.7 tpg) while ranking a solid 11th in rebounding (44.8 rpg); they dominate the possession game and then they use their possessions efficiently, ranking fourth in scoring (120.5 ppg) and seventh in field goal percentage (.482). In their first round sweep of the Memphis Grizzlies, the Thunder forced 77 turnovers while only committing 42 turnovers, and they held the Grizzlies to .415 field goal shooting, including .304 from beyond the arc.

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander averaged 27.8 ppg, 6.0 apg, 5.0 rpg, 1.3 spg, and 1.0 bpg during the first round. The presumptive regular season MVP shot poorly from the field (.402), but still had an impact at both ends of the court. Jalen Williams, who made the All-Star team for the first time, averaged 23.3 ppg, 5.3 rpg, and 5.3 apg during the first round. Chet Holmgren averaged 18.5 ppg, 7.8 rpg, and a team-high 2.8 bpg. Isaiah Hartenstein made his presence felt in the paint with 9.0 ppg on .640 field goal shooting plus a team-high 8.8 rpg. Lack of size was an issue for the Thunder during last year playoffs, but does not seem to be a problem this season after the addition of Hartenstein. 

Other things to consider: This series features two of the three finalists for regular season MVP honors: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Nikola Jokic (the third is Giannis Antetokounmpo). The winner will likely be announced while the series takes place. In 1995, San Antonio's David Robinson was announced as the regular season MVP and then was later torched by Houston's Hakeem Olajuwon (the 1994 regular season MVP) in the Western Conference Finals: Olajuwon averaged 35.3 ppg, 12.5 rpg, 5.0 apg, and 4.2 bpg while primarily being covered one on one by Robinson, who averaged 23.8 ppg, 11.3 rpg, 2.7 apg, and 2.2 bpg as Houston won 4-2 en route to capturing the second of back to back NBA titles.

Jokic won the 2024 regular season MVP--his third such honor in a four year span--with Gilgeous-Alexander finishing second, and that order will likely be switched this year in light of the Thunder's record-setting season. Unlike Olajuwon and Robinson, Jokic and Gilgeous-Alexander will not battle each other one on one in this series (except for occasional defensive switches), but this series will nevertheless be viewed historically as a referendum on the 2025 regular season MVP voting. The reality is that Jokic and Gilgeous-Alexander are both worthy candidates, just as Olajuwon and Robinson were in 1995. In 1995, Olajuwon was already an NBA champion who was about to win his second NBA title, while the nearly three years younger Robinson won both of his NBA titles several years later (1999, 2003). Jokic is a little more than three years older than Gilgeous-Alexander, and Jokic won the NBA championship in 2023, while Gilgeous-Alexander has yet to win an NBA title. 

In my 2025 Playoff Predictions article, I explained why I would select Jokic as the regular season MVP, and I anticipated an Oklahoma City-Denver second round matchup, favoring Oklahoma City in six games. Nothing that I saw in the first round altered my thought process on either count. I still think that Jokic is the NBA's best all-around player, and I still think that Oklahoma City will win this series.

Oklahoma City will defeat Denver in six games.

Labels: Aaron Gordon, Chet Holmgren, Denver Nuggets, Isaiah Hartenstein, Jalen Williams, Jamal Murray, Michael Porter Jr., Nikola Jokic, Oklahoma City Thunder, Russell Westbrook, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander

posted by David Friedman @ 1:49 PM

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Nuggets Overwhelm Clippers in Second Half of 120-101 Game Seven Rout

The L.A. Clippers led 26-21 after the first quarter, but trailed 58-47 at halftime and then collapsed in the second half as the Denver Nuggets won game seven 120-101 to advance to a second round matchup versus the Oklahoma City Thunder; the final score obscures the fact that the Nuggets led 103-68 with 8:49 left in the fourth quarter before calling off the dogs. The Nuggets became the first team to have six players each score at least 15 points in a seventh game. Aaron Gordon led the way (22 points), followed by Christian Braun (21 points), Nikola Jokic (16 points), Jamal Murray (16 points), Russell Westbrook (16 points), and Michael Porter Jr. (15 points). Jokic led the Nuggets with 10 rebounds and eight assists, while Westbrook contributed five rebounds, five assists, and a game-high five steals.

Kawhi Leonard scored a team-high 22 points on 6-13 field goal shooting, but he did not impact the game across the board the way that he usually does, finishing with five rebounds, two assists, two blocked shots, and a game-worst -33 plus/minus number. James Harden, the All-Star guard who is supposed to be the team's reliable second option, had seven points on 2-8 field goal shooting and a -29 plus/minus number; his game-high 13 assists were not nearly enough to make up for not only his poor shooting but his refusal to shoot in an elimination game: the game was still within reach at halftime, but the game was out of reach after Harden scored 0 points on 0-2 field goal shooting while playing all 12 third quarter minutes. Leonard had eight points during the third quarter.

Before digging into the details of yet another pathetic performance to add to Harden's horrific elimination game resume (which now includes a 3-11 won/loss record since he fled Oklahoma City after the 2012 season), we will give credit to the Nuggets. Each Denver starter had between 11 and 16 field goal attempts, and Westbrook provided a critical energy boost during his 27 minutes off of the bench; the 2017 regular season MVP is not the first or second option on a regular basis at this stage of his career but--unlike many players who struggle to accept a lesser role when doing so becomes a necessary reality--he is a team-first player who embraces with enthusiasm his current role as a player who provides hustle, scoring, playmaking, rebounding, and defense off of the bench. The Nuggets took a double digit lead into halftime in large part because Westbrook had 10 points, three assists, two rebounds, two steals, and no turnovers while playing all 12 minutes in the second quarter. When Westbrook rebounded his own missed free throw and scored in traffic at the 3:10 mark of the second quarter, I thought about how stupid it sounded when Amin Elhassan and Zach Harper giggled their way through a segment on their radio show while asserting that Westbrook is a stat padder who obtains easy rebounds from complicit teammates. Westbrook is not a stat padder; he is an energetic game-changer: that play sparked a 9-4 run to close the first half, and set the stage for Denver's third quarter avalanche that ended the game and the series.

Westbrook is not a perfect player and he is the first to admit that, but he never cheats the game, his teammates, or the fans: he plays hard, and his basketball IQ is underrated; after the game, Christian Braun--who drew the primary assignment of guarding Harden--mentioned that Westbrook's knowledge of the Clippers' offensive sets in general and Westbrook's knowledge of Harden's tendencies in particular were invaluable to him.

If you love watching basketball being played the way that it is supposed to be played, then you have to love Westbrook; you may not root for him if he is on the opposing team, but you have to respect his approach to the game. 

The emotional exclamation point for Denver's win happened after Westbrook stole the ball and delivered an uncontested fastbreak dunk at the 6:53 mark of the fourth quarter to put Denver up, 107-76. Westbrook hung on the rim for an extended period, and did not care at all about the ensuing technical foul; during the stoppage of play, Westbrook exchanged high fives with Denver fans while very emphatically telling the Clippers' fans in the crowd to go home. One got the sense that Westbrook was not only sharing joy with Nuggets' fans while talking trash to Clippers' fans but that he was also letting out a lot of pent-up energy directed toward both of his former teams in L.A.--not just the Clippers, but also the Lakers and the sycophantic media members who unfairly made him a scapegoat even though knowledgeable analysts like Hubie Brown praised Westbrook during his time with the Lakers. 

James Harden is the exact opposite of Russell Westbrook: Westbrook keeps himself in shape all of the time, plays hard, accepts his role, and focuses on doing with high energy whatever his team needs him to do, while Harden is often out of shape, often does not give maximum effort, pouts if he does not like his role, and disappears like clockwork when his team needs him most, as if he looks at his Gucci and knows that in clutch moments it is "time to get ill." 

Harden has said that he does not play in a system because he is "The System." His biggest fan, Daryl Morey, insists that Harden is a better scorer than Michael Jordan. Look up delusional in the dictionary, and you should see those two statements as prime examples.

Morey loves "advanced basketball statistics," but the basic boxscore numbers are more than sufficient to tell Harden's story. When Harden's team plays in an elimination game, you can write the story template before the game and then just fill in the specific statistics after the final buzzer, because you know that he will choke and his team will lose. In 2023 as a 76er, Harden scored nine points on 3-11 field goal shooting with seven assists, and five turnovers in a 112-88 loss to the Boston Celtics; the 76ers trailed by just three at halftime, but Harden looked at his Gucci and got ill in the second half with three points on 1-3 field goal shooting. In 2024 as a Clipper, Harden scored 16 points on 5-16 field goal shooting with 13 assists in a 114-101 loss to the Dallas Mavericks, including four points on 2-5 field goal shooting during the decisive third quarter when Dallas outscored L.A., 35-20. This year versus Denver, Harden gave a game seven preview when he disappeared in Denver's 131-115 game five win (11 points on 3-9 field goal shooting with five assists, four turnovers, and a game-worst -16 plus/minus number). Coach Tyronn Lue may deserve the Coach of the Year award for coaxing 28 points on 10-20 field goal shooting out of Harden in a 111-105 game six L.A. win; that is the most points Harden has scored in an elimination game in five years.

Nuggets-Clippers was the most closely contested first round series this year--Golden State-Houston is the only other series to even reach a seventh game, to be played on Sunday night--but game seven turned into a blowout because it is difficult for a team featuring Harden in a first option or second option role to overcome his propensity to disappear when it matters most: if a player who is expected to score 12-15 points only scores 6-10 points, his team can overcome that, but if a player who is expected to be a dominant scorer who draws double teams instead just disappears then there is no way for his team to overcome the huge gap between expected production and delivered production. Very few players are capable of filling the first or second option role on a championship contending team, and Harden is not one of those players, as I noted 12 years ago after Harden fled Oklahoma City instead of accepting a third option role behind Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook.

Harden is not the only reason that his teams have lost so many elimination games, but he is the biggest reason because of his overall approach to the game: if the purported leader is out of shape, does not play hard, and shrinks in big moments then his teammates are going to follow that example in one or more ways. Leonard, who is candid if dry during his press conferences, admitted that the Clippers' game seven effort was disappointing.

Westbrook lifts his teammates' energy, and Harden deflates his teammates' energy.

At least Leonard went to the post-game press conference. Harden left the arena without speaking to the media, which is not the first time that he has done this after a crushing loss, and is yet another example of how ill-suited he is to the role of being a franchise's best player or second best player; a leader does not shirk responsibility for a loss, and speaks to the media even if he knows that there will be uncomfortable questions. 

Labels: Aaron Gordon, Christian Braun, Denver Nuggets, Jamal Murray, James Harden, Kawhi Leonard, L.A. Clippers, Michael Porter Jr., Nikola Jokic, Russell Westbrook

posted by David Friedman @ 12:31 AM

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A Glance at Each First Round Series

The 2025 NBA playoffs started with quadrupleheaders on Saturday April 19 and Sunday April 20. A little more than one week later is a good time to examine what we have seen so far in each of the eight first round series.

Eastern Conference 

#1 Cleveland leads #8 Miami, 3-0

The Heat are the first team to finish 10th in a conference during the regular season but qualify for the playoffs via the NBA Play-In Tournament, and they are playing about as well as one might expect the 10th best team to play against the team with the best record in the Eastern Conference. Cleveland won the first two games at home, 121-100 and 121-112, before handing the Heat their worst playoff loss ever, a 124-87 shellacking in Miami. 

Although the best team will almost always win a best of seven series--barring unusual circumstances such as injuries or suspensions--it is often forgotten that each game in a series is a separate entity; the Heat will not be trailing by 37 points at the start of game four, and they may even eke out one win to send the series back to Cleveland. However, this series will end in five games at most.

The Cavaliers are playing well in all phases of the game, and they are featuring a balanced attack with seven players averaging double figures in scoring, led by Donovan Mitchell (24.3 ppg in three games) and Darius Garland (24.0 ppg in two games).

 #2 Boston leads #7 Orlando, 3-1

After Boston won game one 103-86, the next three games were each decided by nine points or less, but Boston took a commanding 3-1 series lead with a 107-98 victory yesterday. The Magic have made a concerted effort to limit Boston's vaunted three point shooting; in game four, the Celtics shot just 9-31 (.290) from beyond the arc but still prevailed behind a monster game (37 points, 14 rebounds) from Jayson Tatum. The Celtics are averaging 11.5 three point field goals made per game in this series with a .348 three point field goal percentage after making 17.8 three point field goals per game with a .368 three point field goal percentage during the regular season. This series is providing a great example of why it is important for a championship-caliber team to be able to score effectively from other areas of the court in addition to three point range: three point field goal shooting is high variance, so teams that rely too heavily on long range shooting will not be as effective in the playoffs as they were during the regular season. The Celtics have a multifaceted offensive attack, so they can counter Orlando's defensive schemes.

The Magic are a gritty and physical defensive-minded team, but they lack sufficient offensive firepower to beat the Celtics in a seven game series. The most interesting storyline from this series other than Boston's ability to win without high volume three point shooting is that several of Boston's players are banged up now, including Jayson  Tatum, Jaylen Brown, and Jrue Holiday. How much will the Celtics have in the tank for the next series? 

#3 New York leads #6 Detroit, 3-1

This is another physical series, but the unfortunate headline for this series so far is that the NBA admitted that a foul should have been called on Josh Hart as Tim Hardaway Jr. attempted a three point shot with .3 seconds remaining in the fourth quarter of yesterday's pivotal game four. If the foul had been correctly called then Hardaway Jr. would have attempted three free throws with his Pistons trailing, 94-93; if he had made at least two then the Pistons would have almost certainly won the game and tied the series at 2-2, instead of facing a 3-1 deficit and the tough task of winning game five in New York.

Much like the Boston-Orlando series, the favored team won the first game by a double digit margin (123-112) but the next three games were close as the Pistons won 100-94 to take homecourt advantage before losing 118-116 and 94-93 in Detroit. 

New York's Jalen Brunson has been the best player in the series, averaging a series-high 33.3 ppg, 8.8 apg, and 4.3 rpg with shooting splits of .460/.355/.833. Karl-Anthony Towns has been very good in his first playoff series as a Knick (22.8 ppg, 8.5 rpg, shooting splits of .530/.500/1.000). Cade Cunningham leads the Pistons in scoring (25.8 ppg) and assists (series-high 9.0 apg) while also averaging 8.8 rpg.

This has been a tremendous season for the Pistons, but the game four no-call has put them on the brink of elimination in an otherwise competitive series. 

#4 Indiana leads #5 Milwaukee, 3-1

Damian Lillard entered this series questionable due to a blood clot in his left calf, and he exited the series with what has preliminarily been reported to be an Achilles injury to his left leg, a devastating setback that has implications not just for this series but for next season and for the future of the Bucks' franchise. The Pacers would likely have eliminated the Bucks anyway, but after Lillard went down yesterday the disheartened Bucks did not put up much of a fight in a 129-103 loss.

The Pacers' high octane offense is led by Pascal Siakam (22.3 ppg), Myles Turner (15.8 ppg), Tyrese Haliburton (15.5 ppg, playoff-high 12.3 apg), and Andrew Nembhard (15.0 ppg). The Pacers are not great defensively, but they are good enough against a Milwaukee team that only has one serious offensive threat; as expected, Giannis Antetokounmpo is putting up monster numbers, leading both teams in scoring (33.8 ppg) and rebounding (14.3 rpg) while shooting .622 from the field and averaging 5.0 apg, but he does not have enough help on offense while the Bucks' defense has not been good enough, either.

Since winning the 2021 NBA title, the Bucks have fired Coach Mike Budenholzer and gotten rid of starters Khris Middleton and Jrue Holiday (who played a key role on Boston's 2024 championship team). In game four, Middleton's replacement Kyle Kuzma scored three points on 1-6 field goal shooting; he is averaging 6.0 ppg in this series while shooting .333 from the field. Lillard is Holiday's replacement, and he averaged 7.0 ppg on .222 field goal shooting in three games in this series; that is a small sample size, but the reality is that it is expected for a small guard's body to break down in his mid-thirties--and Lillard is such a defensive liability that even if he had stayed healthy it is unlikely that the Bucks would have won a title with him as the second option logging heavy minutes.

Western Conference

#1 Oklahoma City beat #8 Memphis, 4-0  

Remember all of the "experts" who told us that Memphis is not an ordinary eighth seed, and that Oklahoma City is vulnerable because of their inexperience? The Thunder tamed the Grizzlies 131-80 in game one and never looked back, although the victory margins decreased in each subsequent game.

The Thunder forced 77 turnovers while committing just 42 turnovers, which should not be surprising because during the regular season they led the league in both turnovers forced (17.0 tpg) and fewest turnovers committed (11.7 tpg). Shai Gilgeous-Alexander did not have an exceptional series by his lofty standards, but he still led both teams in scoring (27.8 ppg), albeit with an uncharacteristically bad .402 field goal percentage. His All-Star teammate Jalen Williams averaged 23.3 ppg, 5.3 rpg, and 5.3 apg. Chet Holmgren was the only other Oklahoma City player to average more than 10 ppg (18.5 ppg), but three others scored between 8.5 ppg and 9.5 ppg. 

Memphis' star guard Ja Morant missed game four due to injury, but that was actually the closest game of the series, with Oklahoma City winning 117-115. The Grizzlies have a lot of decisions to make, starting with whether to remove the interim tag from coach Tuomas Iisalo, and then extending to what to do with a roster that just does not seem good enough to win a playoff series.

#7 Golden State leads #2 Houston, 2-1

Houston started this series on a bumpy note with a 95-85 home loss to Golden State, bounced back with a 109-94 game two win as Golden State's Jimmy Butler left the game with a pelvis contusion after playing just eight minutes, and then lost game three 104-93 even though Butler did not play. The Warriors outscored the Rockets 35-22 in the fourth quarter of game three in what may turn out to be the pivotal 12 minutes of the series; prior to that point, the Rockets' physical defense had caused problems for the undersized Warriors.

Stephen Curry is having a sensational series, leading both teams in scoring (29.0 ppg) and assists (7.0 apg) while posting gaudy .526/.452/.929 shooting splits. Butler is the only other Warrior averaging more than 11 ppg and the Warriors are getting outrebouned 50.0 rpg to 38.0 rpg, but the Rockets cannot overcome their abysmal team shooting splits of .413/.330/.641. With all due respect to Golden State's defense, the Rockets are missing a lot of open shots and they are also exercising questionable shot selection at key moments. 

The Rockets need more production and consistency from Jalen Green, who is averaging 18.0 ppg on .392 field goal shooting in this series after scoring 21.0 ppg on .423 field goal shooting during the regular season. Green's game by game scoring totals in this series are seven, 38, and nine; he should be in the 18-25 point range every game, and if he does that the rest of the way then the Rockets still have a chance.

It is easy to write off the Rockets as a team that is too young and not good enough offensively to beat the veteran Warriors, but the saving grace for the Rockets may be that their size and physicality wear down the Warriors, particularly if the Rockets win game four to extend the series to at least six games. 

#6 Minnesota leads #3 L.A. Lakers, 3-1 

The story of this series is that Minnesota has dominated L.A. in the paint. Minnesota outscored L.A. in the paint 44-32 in a 117-95 game one win to seize homecourt advantage. L.A. tied Minnesota 46-46 in the paint to win game two 94-85, and then Minnesota won points in the paint 56-26 in a 116-104 game three win and Minnesota again dominated the paint (48-30) in Sunday's 116-113 win. The Lakers gave up size and defensive presence when they traded Anthony Davis for Luka Doncic; that deal will likely be great for the Lakers' long term future because Doncic projects to be an All-NBA First Team caliber player for the next decade, but in the short term the Lakers lack size in the paint and they are not consistently good defensively. 

I picked the Lakers to win this series because I thought that the scoring and playmaking of Luka Doncic, LeBron James, and Austin Reaves combined with having homecourt advantage in game seven would be just enough to get by a Minnesota team that does not always exploit its matchup advantages, but thus far the Lakers' perimeter play has not been sufficient to make up for Minnesota's size, and the series does not appear to be on track to even reach game seven in L.A. My series preview emphasized that Minnesota would enjoy a coaching advantage with Chris Finch versus J.J. Redick, and that has proven to be the case; as just one example, Redick used the same five players for all 24 second half minutes in game four, an almost unprecedented situation of not making a single substitution in a playoff game. At times, it seems like the Lakers are playing without coaching, or at least without competent NBA level coaching; they just give the ball to Doncic, James, or Reaves, and hope that whoever has the ball either scores or draws a double team that opens up a shot for another player. Redick has received largely favorable coverage from his media buddies all season, but up to this point he has one playoff win in four tries as the coach of the higher seeded team that, at least on paper, has the two best players in the series.

Doncic is putting up his typical numbers (30.8 ppg, 7.0 rpg, 5.0 apg), James is playing at a high level for any player, let alone a 40 year old (26.3 ppg, 9.5 rpg, 5.5 apg), and Reaves is doing as much as can reasonably be expected (17.3 ppg, 5.5 rpg, 4.0 apg), but the Lakers' lack of size and the defensive liabilities of Doncic and Reaves are damaging.

Anthony Edwards is leading Minnesota in scoring (29.8 ppg, including a game-high 43 points in the pivotal game four win) and assists (5.8 ppg). Julius Randle has been very good (22.5 ppg, 5.3 rpg, 4.5 apg) in his first playoff series with the Timberwolves, and Jaden McDaniels (19.8 ppg, 7.3 rpg, series-high .579 FG%) has had a big impact offensively and defensively.

#4 Denver tied with #5 L.A. Clippers, 2-2

This series looks like it will be remembered as an all-time classic, with the signature moment so far being Aaron Gordon's buzzer-beating tip-in dunk to win game four for Denver, 101-99. This is apparently the first game-winning, buzzer-beating tip-in dunk in NBA playoff history. Three of the four games have been very close, with Denver winning game one 112-110, L.A. winning game two 105-102, and Denver walking off with a dramatic two point win in game four. The only outlier is the 117-83 drubbing that L.A. delivered in game three, and that game skews the overall statistics for an otherwise closely contested series.

Nikola Jokic is leading both teams in scoring (28.5 ppg), rebounding (13.5 rpg), and assists (10.8 apg); media accounts portraying Ivica Zubac as some kind of "Jokic stopper" are bizarre, even though Zubac is having a good series (18.8 ppg, team-high 11.5 rpg). Jamal Murray (20.0 ppg, 6.0 apg) and Aaron Gordon (17.0 ppg, 6.8 rpg) have played at their usual levels, but Michael Porter Jr. (10.5 ppg, 7.3 rpg) is struggling.

Kawhi Leonard is the Clippers' leading scorer (26.5 ppg, .562 FG%) and he has had a big impact on both sides of the court. The only cautionary note with him, as always, is health/durability; he is a big, strong player who plays with force at both ends of the court, and his body tends to break down. James Harden has been solid so far (21.3 ppg, team-high 9.5 apg, .453 FG%) but--as is usually the case--he is trending downward as the series progresses: 32 points/11 assists in game one, 18 points/seven assists in game two, 20 points/nine assists in game three, and 15 points/11 assists in game four. Harden has been uncharacteristically efficient in the fourth quarters of these games, totaling 12 points on 4-7 field goal shooting with eight assists and just two turnovers, but vintage Harden often does not show up until game five; last year, the Clippers and the Dallas Mavericks were tied 2-2 before the Clippers lost 123-93 as Harden had a Draymond Green-like triple single (seven points, seven assists, four rebounds) including both "concert tour" field goal shooting (2-12) and a "Harden" with more turnovers (four) than field goals made (two). 

It is reasonable to expect greatness from Jokic and Leonard in game five, along with a typical Harden performance as well, which should add up to Denver taking a 3-2 series lead.

Labels: Boston Celtics, Cleveland Cavaliers, Denver Nuggets, Golden State Warriors, Indiana Pacers, L.A. Clippers, Minnesota Timberwolves, New York Knicks, Oklahoma City Thunder

posted by David Friedman @ 2:02 PM

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Brief Thoughts About the First Quadrupleheader of the 2025 NBA Playoffs

The 2025 NBA playoffs opened with a Saturday quadrupleheader. Here are some brief thoughts about each game:

Game One: Indiana Pacers 117, Milwaukee Bucks 98

The Bucks led 6-3 before the Pacers went on a 12-2 run and never trailed again. The Pacers were up 67-43 at halftime and pushed that advantage to 77-49 early in the third quarter before settling for a 19 point win. Pascal Siakam (25 points on 10-15 field goal shooting) led six Pacers who scored in double figures, while Giannis Antetokounmpo could have sung Eric Carmen's classic song "All by Myself": he scored a game-high 36 points on 14-23 field goal shooting and had a game-high 12 rebounds, but no other Buck scored more than 15 points as his teammates combined for 62 points on 21-61 field goal shooting (.344). Damian Lillard did not play due to injury (blood clot in his right calf, and starters Ryan Rollins (five points), Kyle Kuzma (zero points), and Taurean Prince (zero points) combined to score five more points than a dead man.

Perhaps Lillard's anticipated healthy return for game two will help, but the Pacers played at a much faster speed and a much higher energy level than every Buck not named Antetokounmpo, and one undersized/injury-prone guard who is allergic to defense is unlikely to significantly change the Bucks' fortunes.

People who don't understand playoff basketball say things like "Game one is a feel out game" and "A playoff series does not begin until a road team wins a game." The reality is much different on both counts. Since the 1983-84 season, game one winners eventually win the series 77.1% of the time, including 79.0% of the time in the first round. Also, teams that win the first two games of a seven game series eventually win the series 92.0% of the time--which means that if the home team wins the first two games then the series is over much more often than not before the road team even plays a game at home. Game two is a must win for the Bucks, who are already in deep trouble as the shorthanded underdog.

Game Two: Denver Nuggets 112, L.A. Clippers 110 (OT)

Nikola Jokic had a slightly below average game by his lofty standards (29 points, game-high 12 assists, nine rebounds) and the Nuggets shot an uncharacteristically poor 41-94 (.436) from the field but they still beat a Clippers team that shot 43-86 (.500) from the field with James Harden scoring a game-high 32 points on 11-22 field goal shooting and dishing for a team-high 11 assists while committing just two turnovers. Aaron Gordon (25 points, eight rebounds) and Jamal Murray (21 points, nine rebounds, seven assists) were productive starters supporting Jokic's near triple double, and Russell Westbrook led the charge off of the bench with 15 points, eight rebounds, three assists, and just one turnover in 34 high energy minutes. Westbrook shot just 5-17 from the field but he had a +7 plus/minus number and after the game he dismissed the incessant focus on his shooting: "A lot of people put a lot of emphasis on missing so many shots. But in the playoffs, all you need to do is just win the game. I don't give a damn about how many shots you miss, make. Just make winning basketball plays defensively, offensively." Shot selection is important, and efficient shooting is important--but Westbrook is such a dynamic, high energy player that you can live with some of his shortcomings: I would rather have five Westbrooks playing hard and playing fearlessly than five "efficient" players who need to have their batteries jump-started and who demand rest days and "load management."

This game could have gone either way at several key junctures, but the Clippers have to be kicking themselves after squandering a 15 point lead and losing to a Denver team that had an off night. Regression to the mean indicates that the Nuggets are likely to shoot closer to their season average field goal percentage of .506 (first in the league) for the rest of this series, and Harden is likely to shoot closer to his playoff career field goal percentage of .425 for the rest of this series; in his last three playoff series, Harden had six games during which he shot at least .500 from the field and 10 games during which he shot worse than .430 from the field, including eight in which he shot worse than .320 from the field. Harden's playoff choking is not a slanted narrative or "hate": it is a statistical fact, and if he does not choke in this series then that will be a deviation from his career norm of playing poorly when the games matter the most. He played well in game one, but he is unlikely to sustain that, and the regression to the mean already began in the second half, when he managed just 10 points on 2-6 field goal shooting. Harden bounced back to score seven points on 3-3 field goal shooting in the overtime, but he was also involved in the turnover with 9.6 seconds remaining in overtime that essentially ended the game as Westbrook deflected a pass off of Harden's leg and out of bounds (interestingly, the scorekeeper assigned that turnover to Nicolas Batum for a "bad pass"). The "inefficient" Westbrook not only made the key defensive play on Harden, but he also hit a three pointer that put the Nuggets up 98-96 with 24.1 seconds remaining in the fourth quarter. Harden's runner sent the game to overtime, and the Nuggets did just enough in the extra session to prevail.

Kawhi Leonard scored 22 points on 9-15 field goal shooting for the Clippers but he also had a game-high seven turnovers. Ivica Zubac added 21 points and a game-high 13 rebounds; some media members are depicting Zubac as a Jokic-stopper but that is probably going to end as well for Zubac as the "Kobe-stopper" designation ended for Ruben Patterson (who brought that shame upon himself by giving himself that nickname, as opposed to being an innocent bystander to foolish media narratives).

Game Three: New York Knicks 123, Detroit Pistons 112

Detroit led 90-81 with 42 seconds remaining in the third quarter, after which the young Pistons had their "Welcome to the NBA playoffs!" moment as New York went on a 30-8 run to storm in front 111-98 with 4:49 left in the fourth quarter. Cade Cunningham's three pointer cut the margin to six (118-112) with 1:23 remaining, but the Pistons did not score the rest of the way.

Jalen Brunson scored a game-high 34 points for the Knicks on 12-27 field goal shooting, and he had a team-high eight assists. Brunson scored 12 fourth quarter points on 5-7 field goal shooting. Karl-Anthony Towns dominated inside with 23 points on 10-14 field goal shooting and a game-high 11 rebounds. OG Anunoby contributed 23 points and seven rebounds; he had 12 points in in the first quarter. Cameron Payne provided a major spark with 14 points in 15 minutes off of the bench, including 11 in the fourth quarter.

Tobias Harris led the Pistons with 25 points, while Cunningham had 21 points, a game-high 12 assists, six rebounds, and a game-high six turnovers in this first career playoff game.

Game Four: Minnesota Timberwolves 117, L.A. Lakers 95

Luka Doncic scored 16 first quarter points on 5-10 field goal shooting in his Lakers' playoff debut, and the Lakers led 28-21 at the end of the first stanza. The Timberwolves then shredded the Lakers with 38 points in the second quarter and 35 points in the third quarter, building an 85-58 lead midway through the third quarter to stun Lakers' fans who expected a coronation but attended a massacre. Minnesota shot 44-86 (.512) from the field, including 21-42 (.500) from three point range, and the Timberwolves outrebounded the Lakers 44-38 while outscoring the Lakers 44-32 in the paint. The Timberwolves beat the Lakers inside, outside, upside down, and sideways. The Lakers designated Jaden McDaniels as a "let him shoot" player, and he poured in a team-high 25 points on 11-13 field goal shooting. Naz Reid added 23 points on 8-12 field goal shooting off of the bench, and Anthony Edwards contributed 22 points, a game-high nine assists, and eight rebounds. Doncic finished with a game-high 37 points on 12-22 field goal shooting with eight rebounds but just one assist. LeBron James had a very quiet 19 points, five rebounds, and three assists, Austin Reaves scored 16 points on 5-13 field goal shooting, and no other Laker had more than nine points.

The Lakers looked forward to setting records with J.J. Redick as their new coach and Doncic as their new cornerstone player, but the milestones that they established in this game were not what they had in mind: the Lakers tied the franchise record for largest margin of defeat in a game one home loss, they had their lowest point total so far with Doncic and James playing together, and they suffered the worst first round game one loss of James' illustrious career.

When the Lakers win, there is plenty of credit to go around, but when the Lakers lose there is a competition to figure out who to blame. Two people who are sure that a loss is never their fault are LeBron James and J.J. Redick. James assured reporters that his teammates may have just needed a game to adjust to playoff basketball but they will be ready in game two; he did not mention that the Lakers may need more from him. In his in-game interview after the third quarter, Redick declared that the Timberwolves were not doing anything "schematically" that the Lakers did not expect; one thing that you can count on with Redick is that anything that goes wrong is never his fault: if the Lakers play poorly or lose, it is because the players did not execute his brilliant game plan. Redick rarely holds himself accountable. 

As noted above, winning game one is significant. That being said, if the team with homecourt advantage loses game one all hope is not extinguished, because a road team winning game one in a best of seven series has won the series 52% of the time since 2002-03, when the NBA expanded the first round from best of five to best of seven; however, the team with homecourt advantage in the first round wins the series 77.4% of the time overall, so by winning game one on the road the Timberwolves significantly increased the likelihood that they will win this series. 

I picked the Lakers to beat the Timberwolves because I thought that the Timberwolves would have a tough time matching up with the scoring/playmaking of Doncic, James, and Reaves, but if only Doncic shows up and the Lakers play no defense then the Lakers are in trouble. The Lakers may still win this series, but if that happens it will be because Doncic's individual brilliance supplemented by contributions from James and Reaves overcomes the Lakers' limitations in terms of lack of size and coaching.

Labels: Denver Nuggets, Detroit Pistons, Indiana Pacers, L.A. Clippers, L.A. Lakers, Milwaukee Bucks, Minnesota Timberwolves, New York Knicks

posted by David Friedman @ 10:37 AM

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NBA's Coaching Carousel Keeps Spinning as Denver Fires Michael Malone

In a season notable for the shocking Luka Doncic-Anthony Davis trade and the firing of respected veteran coaches Mike Brown and Taylor Jenkins, the Denver Nuggets added to the list of surprising moves by firing Michael Malone, who coached the team to the franchise's first championship just two years ago. The Nuggets could finish as high as third in the West, so firing the coach with the most wins (471) in franchise history and the most wins (438) in the NBA since 2016-17 is stunning, even considering the contentious nature of Malone's relationship with General Manager Calvin Booth, who the Nuggets also fired. Assistant coach David Adelman, son of long-time NBA coach Rick Adelman, is now Denver's interim head coach.

Media members and fans often make impulsive and subjective evaluations of coaches (and players). I evaluate coaches based on how well their teams play defensively, because defense requires (1) the correct schemes based on the team's personnel and based on matchups, and (2) players buying into whatever the coach is selling. I also evaluate coaches based on the extent to which a team meets or exceeds reasonable expectations. A coach with a roster capable of winning 25 games with a bottom third defensive ranking did a good job if his team finished 30-52 with a top 15 defensive ranking, but a coach with a roster capable of winning 45 games with a top 15 defensive ranking did a bad job if his team won 40 games while ranking 20th in defense (assuming that the teams in this comparison both had reasonably healthy rosters). I evaluate the decision to fire a coach based not only on the above factors but also based on the likelihood of finding a replacement who can do better than the fired coach.

Prior to this season, I picked Denver to be the third best team in the Western Conference. The Nuggets are currently in a four way tie for fourth with a 47-32 record (the Nuggets are fifth based on tiebreakers), but the standings are so bunched together that Denver could finish anywhere between third and eighth. Denver's second best player, Jamal Murray, has been limited by injuries for most of this season, and he has missed the last five games due to injury, with the Nuggets losing four in a row after winning the first game that he missed. Until we see how healthy the Nuggets are during the playoffs (or the Play-In Tournament if they drop below sixth in the standings) and how far they advance, it is too soon to say if they have met reasonable expectations. The Nuggets rank 14th in the NBA in defensive field goal percentage and 25th in points allowed; when they won the 2023 NBA championship they ranked 20th and eighth respectively in those categories, but their roster had more plus defenders at that time. It does not seem likely that a coach is available who will win 438 games and at least one NBA title in the next eight years, so firing Malone with three games to go seems like a rash, irrational move.

It will be interesting to see what happens with the other two high profile coach firings. 

The Sacramento Kings fired Mike Brown after a 13-18 start this season. A 13-18 record is not great, but that winning percentage (.419) is better than the full season winning percentages of every Kings team from 2009-18. Brown won the 2023 Coach of the Year award after leading the Kings to a 48-34 record in his first season with the team, and they went 46-36 last season to post their first consecutive winning seasons since 2005-06. A little over a month after firing Brown, the Kings received Zach LaVine in a three team deal during which they sent De'Aaron Fox to the San Antonio Spurs. The Kings are 26-22 under Doug Christie, and they are clinging to the ninth spot in the Western Conference. The Kings rank 23rd in defensive field goal percentage and 20th in points allowed after ranking 21st and 17th respectively in those categories last season. Before the season, I ranked the Kings as the eighth best team in the Western Conference. It is fair to say that they underperformed early in the season under Brown, but it is not clear if that sample size of games was sufficient to make the decision to fire Brown, nor is it clear that Christie or whoever else the Kings may bring in next season will be more successful than Brown was.

The Memphis Grizzlies fired Taylor Jenkins, who posted a 250-214 record with the Grizzlies from 2019-25, including 44-29 this season. Jenkins led the Grizzlies to two Southwest Division titles (2022-23) and three playoff appearances (2021-23) even though the team's most prominent player--Ja Morant--has never played in more than 67 games in a season (a number that Morant only reached during the COVID-19 shortened 2020 campaign, when he won the Rookie of the Year award). Jenkins is the franchise's career wins leader, and he ranks second in franchise history in career winning percentage while notching the franchise's first (and only) division titles. The Grizzlies went 8-11 after the All-Star Game before firing Jenkins, and they are are 3-3 after replacing him with interim coach Tuomas Iisalo, who has no prior NBA head coaching experience. Their defense has not been good recently but overall they rank third in defensive field goal percentage and 23rd in points allowed (which is not as bad as that may sound because they are second in points scored and thus enjoy a nearly +5 ppg point differential). I ranked Memphis as the seventh best team in the Western Conference, and they are currently tied with Denver and two other teams for fourth.

Of the three teams that fired their coaches this season, only the Kings could be singled out for not meeting reasonable expectations, but it is fair to ask (1) if Mike Brown was given enough time and opportunity to right the ship and (2) if either Doug Christie or Doug Christie's replacement can do better long term than Brown. The Nuggets and Grizzlies are who we thought they were, to hearken back to the famous Dennis Green rant; one wonders what their owners think they are/should be, and what those teams will look like not just in the next two weeks but in the next seasons without the services of the excellent coaches who they summarily dismissed. 

The NBA is experiencing an influx of new money; the league just signed a record-setting media rights deal, and many teams have young owners who are flush with cash and who think that possessing billions of dollars makes them experts on everything, including roster construction and coaching strategies. In Phoenix, Mat Ishbia has fired two coaches and done a complete roster overhaul in less than three years, and the Suns have crashed from winning 64 games and reaching the NBA Finals in 2021 to being a 35-44 Draft Lottery team this season.

Labels: Denver Nuggets, Memphis Grizzlies, Michael Malone, Mike Brown, Sacramento Kings, Taylor Jenkins

posted by David Friedman @ 10:07 PM

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Nikola Jokic Posts First 30-20-20 Stat Line in Pro Basketball History

Last night, Nikola Jokic posted historic numbers--31 points, 22 assists, 21 rebounds--as his Denver Nuggets defeated the Phoenix Suns 149-141 in overtime. Jokic dominated the overtime with five points, five assists, three rebounds, and one steal. This is not only the first 30-20-20 stat line in pro basketball history, but Jokic broke Wilt Chamberlain's 47 year old record for single game assists by a center (Chamberlain had 22 points, 25 rebounds and 21 assists for the Philadelphia 76ers in a 131-121 win versus the Detroit Pistons on February 2, 1968). Jokic joined his teammate Russell Westbrook and Chamberlain as the only three players in pro basketball history to have a 20-20-20 game. This was Jokic's seventh 15-15-15 game this season and the 14th of his career, tying two Oscar Robertson records.

It is unfortunate that the NBA and its media partners ignore ABA numbers when discussing all-time records, but it should be noted that Julius Erving had 26 points, 20 rebounds, and 15 assists in a 138-91 playoff victory versus Rick Barry's New York Nets on April 13, 1972. Erving was a rookie when he accomplished that feat, and--as far as I can determine--Jokic is the only other player in pro basketball history to notch a 26-20-15 game (in addition to last night's performance, Jokic had a 35-22-17 game versus Sacramento on January 23, 2025).

Jokic now has 29 triple doubles in 2024-25, matching his career-high for a season, and tying for sixth on the all-time single season list behind Westbrook (42 in 2016-17), Robertson (41 in 1961-62), Westbrook (38 in 2020-21), Westbrook (34 in 2018-19), and Chamberlain (31 in 1967-68). Side note: as long as you are not brainwashed by Amin Elhassan and Zach Harper or LeBron James' p.r. man Dave "Vampire" McMenamin, you understand that Westbrook is an all-time great. 

The prevailing media narrative seems to be that Oklahoma City's Shai Gilgeous-Alexander will win the 2024-25 regular season MVP award. Gilgeous-Alexander is having a great season for the West-leading 52-11 Thunder; he ranks first in the NBA in scoring (career-high 32.8 ppg), second in steals (1.8 spg), and eighth in free throw percentage (.898). Gilgeous-Alexander has no skill set weaknesses, and there is nothing negative to say about his game--but Jokic is nearly averaging a triple double and he is poised to become the first player in pro basketball history to rank in the top three in scoring (28.9 ppg, third), rebounding (12.9 rpg, third), and assists (10.6 apg, second). I explained my MVP criteria in an article handicapping the 2017 MVP race, and my MVP criteria remain the same: "My philosophy about the MVP award remains unchanged; the MVP should be the best all-around player in the league, unless there is a player who is so singularly dominant in one or two phases of the game that this dominance makes him more valuable than the league's best all-around player at that time. So, Shaquille O'Neal should have won several MVPs (instead of just one) even though he was never the best all-around player in the league; his dominance in the paint made him more valuable than anyone else during his prime."

O'Neal averaged more than 28.9 ppg three times in his 19 season career, and he averaged more than 12.9 rpg three times; he exceeded both of those numbers in the same season just twice, and in one of those seasons (2000-01) he captured his lone regular season MVP. Jokic is putting up "Shaq-like" numbers as a dominant big man and he is the best all-around player in the league as signified by his scoring/rebounding/passing excellence, so I would designate him as the clear choice for 2024-25 MVP--not based on one game, but based on his season-long triple double dominance.

Labels: Denver Nuggets, Julius Erving, Nikola Jokic, Oklahoma City Thunder, Oscar Robertson, Phoenix Suns, Russell Westbrook, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Virginia Squires, Wilt Chamberlain

posted by David Friedman @ 11:11 PM

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Jokic and Westbrook Make Triple Double History Together

Russell Westbrook is the career triple double leader (202), while his teammate Nikola Jokic ranks third all-time with 145 career triple doubles; those totals include a triple double for each player in Denver's 124-105 Friday night victory over Brooklyn when the duo set a record by becoming the first teammates to have a triple double in the same game twice in the same season. Jokic had 35 points, 12 rebounds, and 15 assists versus Brooklyn, while Westbrook had 25 points, 11 rebounds, and 10 assists.

Their first such game happened on December 30, 2024 when Westbrook had a "perfect" triple double (signified by making all of his shots and not committing any turnovers) in a 132-121 win versus Utah. Westbrook had 16 points, 10 rebounds, and 10 assists while shooting 7-7 from the field and 2-2 from the free throw line. Jokic put up a stat line reminiscent of prime Wilt Chamberlain: 36 points, 22 rebounds, 11 assists. When Chamberlain led the NBA in assists in 1967-68 en route to winning his fourth regular season MVP, he had five 30-point triple doubles, and he had at least 20 rebounds in four of those games.

Westbrook did not shoot well during the first portion of the season, but since December 1 he has shot .514 from the field. Despite battling injuries to starters Jamal Murray and Aaron Gordon, the Nuggets are 4-2 in January and 12-8 since December 1. In six January 2025 games, Westbrook is averaging 17.3 ppg, 8.2 apg, and 7.3 rpg with shooting splits of .507/.370/.692. Overall, he is averaging 12.9 ppg, 6.8 apg, and 5.0 apg this season while playing in all 37 of Denver's games (16 as a starter). 

The L.A. Lakers conducted a despicable propaganda war against Westbrook, eagerly aided and abetted by LeBron James' media sycophants (including but not limited to Dave "Vampire" McMenamin and Brian "I owe it all to covering LeBron since high school" Windhorst) but--as I wrote after Westbrook finally escaped from the Lakers--"The propaganda campaign waged against Westbrook for the last year and a half is going to lose a lot of momentum now that Westbrook is playing for a legitimate NBA franchise that is more likely to utilize him correctly." Westbrook began rehabilitating his reputation during his post-Lakers stint with the L.A. Clippers from 2022-24, and this season we are seeing that Westbrook is still quite capable of playing at a high level even at the age of 36. It is fascinating to contrast how well Westbrook has played during his career alongside Kevin Durant, Paul George, and now Nikola Jokic--and how well they played alongside him--with the way that the Lakers (under the control of Player President/GM/Coach LeBron James) not only misused Westbrook but then slandered him.

Labels: Brooklyn Nets, Denver Nuggets, L.A. Lakers, LeBron James, Nikola Jokic, Russell Westbrook

posted by David Friedman @ 10:52 PM

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Russell Westbrook's "Perfect" Triple Double Provides a Reminder of How Exceptional He is

The Denver Nuggets' 132-121 victory versus the Utah Jazz on Monday December 30 featured two triple doubles. Denver's MVP candidate (and three-time NBA regular season MVP) Nikola Jokic had the 144th triple double of his career (36 points, 22 rebounds, 11 assists), and his teammate Russell Westbrook had the 201st triple double of his career (16 points, 10 rebounds, 10 assists). Jokic ranks third all-time in triple doubles, behind only Oscar Robertson (181) and Westbrook (201), who became the triple double king in 2021. While Jokic had the "bigger" triple double versus Utah, Westbrook had the more uncommon triple double: Westbrook did not miss a shot (7-7 FG, 2-2 FT) and did not commit a turnover, authoring just the third "perfect" triple double since the NBA began officially tracking individual turnovers during the 1977-78 season. Jokic (in 2018) and Domantas Sabonis (earlier this season) are the only other players who have had "perfect" triple doubles. This is the second time that Westbrook shot 100% from the field during a triple double game.

Denver Coach Michael Malone effusively praised Westbrook: "First-ballot Hall of Famer, one of the greatest point guards to ever play the game. And what I admire so much about him, aside from the leadership and toughness that he brings every single day, is he's got no ego." Malone added, "He came here for one reason and that's to help us win a championship. And he hates to lose, and that's another thing I love about him. He's built the right way, and I'll go to war with Russell Westbrook any day."

If you understand basketball in general and the NBA game in particular, then you love the way Westbrook plays. Hubie Brown praises Westbrook to the sky. Unfortunately, many uninformed media members--including Amin Elhassan and Zach Harper--look for any excuse to bash Westbrook and minimize the value of his accomplishments. Contrary to what Westbrook's loudest critics often assert, rebounds are not fungible in general, and Westbrook's rebounds specifically are not fungible.

Seven of the top 12 career leaders in triple doubles are active players. It could be argued that triple doubles in general are easier to get now than in previous eras due to lenient scorekeeping for assists, but it is biased and foolish to praise some players' triple doubles while acting as if the triple doubles by the all-time triple double leader are worthless; the distance between Westbrook and Robertson on the career triple double list--20--would tie Charles Barkley and Tom Gola for 29th all-time. Kevin Durant, Scottie Pippen, Bill Russell, Kevin Garnett, and Stephen Curry are just a few of the Hall of Famers/future Hall of Famers who have less than 20 career triple doubles. In other words, Westbrook is head and shoulders above everyone in terms of triple doubles, and the margin of his dominance cannot be explained just by the nature of how the game is played now or by how statistics are recorded now.

Denver fans need not concern themselves with how easy or difficult it is to get a triple double, or with how many career triple doubles Jokic and Westbrook will have, because what matters most now for their team is that Westbrook's energy and unselfishness are, as I predicted, a breath of fresh air for a Nuggets team that lacks depth.

Labels: Denver Nuggets, Domantas Sabonis, Michael Malone, Nikola Jokic, Oscar Robertson, Russell Westbrook

posted by David Friedman @ 2:25 AM

22 comments

Notes About the 2024 Christmas Day Quintupleheader

This is the 17th consecutive year that the NBA had a Christmas Day quintupleheader, and the 77th year that the NBA played games on Christmas Day, a tradition that began during the league's second season. The 2024 Christmas Day quintupleheader featured the reigning NBA champion Boston Celtics, the reigning Western Conference champion Dallas Mavericks, the 2023 NBA champion Denver Nuggets, the 2022 NBA champion Golden State Warriors, and the 2020 NBA champion L.A. Lakers (granted, the latter three teams have significantly different rosters now than they did when they won their respective championships).

Game One: New York Knicks 117, San Antonio Spurs 114

1) The Knicks started this season 4-5, but they went 15-5 in their next 20 games to vault up to third in the Eastern Conference standings behind Cleveland and Boston. The Knicks have a very efficient offense paced by Karl-Anthony Towns (24.7 ppg with .537/.456/.841 shooting splits) and Jalen Brunson (24.6 ppg with .488/.434/.814 shooting splits). Their defense was shaky during the first nine games, but improved in the next 20 games. 

After posting back to back 22-60 seasons, the Spurs entered this game with a respectable 15-14 record. Victor Wembanyama, the 2024 Rookie of the Year, is averaging 24.8 ppg and leading the league with 4.0 bpg after leading the league last season with 3.6 bpg.

2) On November 8, 2023, the Knicks dominated the Spurs 126-105 the first time that Wembanyama faced the Knicks in Madison Square Garden, and Wembanyama had just 14 points on 4-14 field goal shooting. Wembanyama's second visit to Madison Square Garden went much better individually as he scored a game-high 42 points on 16-31 field goal shooting while also ripping down a game-high 18 rebounds, but his heroics were not enough to deliver a win. Wembanyama had a game-high four blocked shots and he dished for four assists while accumulating a +7 plus/minus number, but three of the Spurs' five starters had negative plus/minus numbers as the Knicks outscored the Spurs by 10 points in the non-Wembanyama minutes. Jeremy Sochan had 21 points and nine rebounds, but he also tallied a game-high five turnovers along with a -12 plus/minus number. 

Mikal Bridges scored a team-high 41 points, just four points short of his career high and the second most points scored by a Knick on Christmas Day, trailing only Bernard King's legendary 60 point outburst in 1984. Bridges shot 17-25 from the field in his highest scoring game with New York. Towns battled foul trouble to finish with 21 points and nine rebounds, but he posted a game-worst -13 plus/minus number (tied with the Spurs' Devin Vassell). Brunson added 20 points, a game-high nine assists (tied with the Spurs' Tre Jones), and seven rebounds, but he shot just 7-23 from the field. Josh Hart chipped in 12 points, a team-high 12 rebounds, and six assists. The Knicks outrebounded the Spurs 47-45, and outscored the Spurs in the paint 58-50.

The Knicks led 28-27 at the end of the first quarter, outrebounding the Spurs 17-12 but shooting just 11-28 (.393) from the field. The Knicks outscored the Spurs in the paint, 18-10. Wembanyama scored 10 points on 3-9 field goal shooting, but no other Spur had more than four points. Bridges (nine points), Towns (eight points), and Brunson (seven points) paced the Knicks.

The Spurs flipped the script in the second quarter, outrebounding the Knicks 16-4 and outscoring the Knicks in the paint 22-10 to take a 58-51 halftime lead. Wembanyama had 24 points, 11 rebounds, four assists, and two blocked shots in the first half.

The Knicks closed the third quarter with a 10-0 run--capped by a Bridges three pointer off of a slick Brunson feed--to lead 88-83 heading into the final stanza.

Jones' three point play with 7:16 remaining in the fourth quarter put the Spurs up 102-94, but Bridges scored 12 points down the stretch (and 15 fourth quarter points overall) to lift the Knicks to a hard-earned win.

3) This game is a good example of the small yet not so small differences between a playoff-hardened team that knows how to win and a team that has not yet learned how to win; like most NBA games, this contest featured runs by both teams and excellent individual performances by players from both teams, but down the stretch the Knicks executed better at both ends of the court. After Chris Paul's three pointer cut the Knicks' lead to three with 41.7 seconds remaining, the Knicks secured two offensive rebounds in the final 17 seconds, enabling them to run out the clock and deny the Spurs a chance to tie the game.

Game Two: Minnesota Timberwolves 105, Dallas Mavericks 99

1) This game is a rematch of the 2024 Western Conference Finals, a series that the Mavericks won 4-1 to advance to the NBA Finals. The Mavericks have picked up where they left off last season, and are in a tight three way battle with Houston and Memphis for the second seed in the Western Conference behind the Oklahoma City Thunder. In contrast, the Timberwolves have slipped significantly after trading Karl-Anthony Towns for Julius Randle, Donte DiVincenzo, and other considerations; contrary to the popular notion that small ball is the way to go, the aftermath of this trade is demonstrating yet again that size matters in the NBA. Towns is leading the NBA in rebounding (13.9 rpg) for the Knicks, while the Timberwolves have dropped from 15th in the league in rebounding last season to 23rd this season sans Towns.

2) The Timberwolves only led 26-24 at the end of the first quarter, but they were already up 42-35 with 6:21 remaining in the second quarter when Luka Doncic was sidelined with a left calf injury. Doncic, who scored 14 points on 5-9 field goal shooting in 16 minutes, was unable to return to action, and the Timberwolves exploited his absence to push the margin to 17 points (57-40) by halftime. Dallas players not named Doncic shot 9-34 (.265) from the field in the first half. Despite not playing in the second half, Doncic was the Mavericks' second leading scorer for the entire game.

The Timberwolves led 90-62 with just 1:23 remaining in the third quarter. ESPN commentator Jay Bilas talked about how much fun Minnesota was having. The Mavericks ended the quarter with a 6-0 run, but that just looked like window dressing. However, the Timberwolves scored just seven points in the first 8:42 of the fourth quarter, and they were clinging to a 101-99 lead after Klay Thompson drilled a three pointer at the 1:05 mark. After an Anthony Edwards turnover, Kyrie Irving missed a three pointer that would have put the Mavericks up by one, and the Timberwolves closed out the scoring with an Edwards layup followed by two Randle free throws. 

Edwards scored a team-high 26 points while also grabbing eight rebounds and passing for five assists. Randle contributed 23 points, a game-high 10 rebounds (tied with teammate Rudy Gobert and Dallas' Dereck Lively II), and a game-high eight assists.

Irving poured in a game-high 39 points on 14-27 field goal shooting, including 26 second half points on 9-14 field goal shooting. Bilas joined the chorus of media members who call Irving the greatest ballhandler ever without defining what that means or even stating who else is in the running for that subjective honor. Does it mean being fancy and flashy? If so, Irving does not hold a candle to Pete Maravich, who not only could do everything that Irving does and more but was decades ahead of his time with his showmanship. Does it mean controlling the tempo of the game at the highest level for multiple championship teams? If so, Irving does not rank ahead of Bob Cousy, Walt Frazier, Magic Johnson, and Isiah Thomas. Does it mean being highly efficient in terms of assists versus turnovers? If so, Irving (4269 assists, 1885 turnovers, 2.3 assist/turnover ratio) is far behind John Stockton (15,806 assists, 4244 turnovers, 3.7 assist/turnover ratio) both in total assists and assist/turnover ratio. The recency bias displayed even by sensible commentators like Bilas is perplexing; at least Bilas did not overtly disrespect Cousy and other past greats the way that J.J. Redick, Amin Elhassan, Zach Harper, and others have done.

3) One win against Dallas sans Doncic is not enough evidence to prove that the Timberwolves have righted their ship, particularly considering that the Timberwolves almost fumbled the game away. Regarding the Mavericks, they should be concerned not only about Doncic's health--he recently returned to action after missing two games with a left heel injury--but also about how flat they looked in the first half even before losing Doncic.

Game Three: Philadelphia 76ers 118, Boston Celtics 114

1) The Boston Celtics started 23-6 last season en route to posting a league-best 64-18 record before winning their first NBA title since 2008. This season, the Celtics started 22-7, trailing only the red hot Cleveland Cavaliers (26-4) in the Eastern Conference and the 23-5 Oklahoma City Thunder, who have the Western Conference's best record. Jayson Tatum has made the All-NBA First Team in each of the past three seasons, and this season he is posting the second highest scoring average of his career (28.8 ppg) along with career-high numbers in rebounding (9.3 rpg) and assists (5.7 apg).

Under the terms of the NBA's collective bargaining agreement, Joel Embiid is already ineligible to receive any postseason awards because he will not participate in at least 65 regular season games. He entered Christmas Day averaging 20.6 ppg, 6.8 rpg, and 4.1 apg in eight games; his 76ers went 3-5 in those games, and they began the day with a 12-17 record that ranked 12th in the Eastern Conference.

2) The 76ers' highly touted "Big Three" of Joel Embiid, Paul George, and Tyrese Maxey played together for just the sixth time this season. Maxey scored a game-high 33 points on 12-23 field goal shooting while also passing for a game-high 12 assists, and posting a solid +7 plus/minus number. Embiid added 27 points and nine rebounds but he had a game-worst -18 plus/minus number; usually the 76ers are much better with Embiid on the court, but in this game when Embiid played they leaked oil like an old clunker. George was a non-factor with 12 points on 4-15 field goal shooting and a -16 plus/minus number, but Caleb Martin picked up the slack with 23 points on 8-11 field goal shooting, including 7-9 from three point range.

Tatum scored a team-high 32 points, grabbed a game-high 15 rebounds, and passed for four assists with a +5 plus/minus number. Jaylen Brown bounced back from a bad first half to finish with 23 points, Derrick White added 21 points, and the seemingly ageless Al Horford had 17 points. Horford had a game-high +22 plus/minus number, but he and Tatum were the only Celtics with positive plus/minus numbers; the other eight Celtics who played had plus/minus numbers ranging from -1 to -13. Plus/minus numbers in small sample sizes can be "noisy," but it is fair to say that the Celtics won many of the Embiid versus Horford minutes and lost just about every other matchup combination. Horford has had success guarding Embiid over the years, so this is not surprising.

3) Maxey scored 12 points as the 76ers built a 30-25 lead by the end of the first quarter. The 76ers led by as much as 16 during the second quarter before settling for a 66-58 halftime edge after outscoring the Celtics 36-33 in a defense-optional 12 minute stretch. 

Brown scored just two points on 1-8 field goal shooting in the first half but he took over in the third quarter with 14 points on 6-10 field goal shooting, nearly matching the 76ers by himself as the Celtics won the quarter 24-16 to tie the score at 82 heading into the final stanza.

The fourth quarter mirrored the second quarter, with the 76ers outscoring the Celtics 36-32. The 76ers led 108-94 after Martin's three pointer at the 4:29 mark, but Maxey committed three turnovers in the next two minutes as the Celtics pulled to within 108-105. The 76ers did not score a field goal in the final 4:29, but they made enough free throws to survive.

4) To win an NBA championship, a team must be consistently efficient and productive while maintaining the health of its core group of players for over 100 games during the regular season and the playoffs. The 76ers played their best game of the season versus a Boston team without the services of Jrue Holiday and without the services of Kristaps Porzingis in the second half, and they celebrated after the game as if they had just won a championship; this brings to mind the way that Doug Collins used to make note of which teams celebrated after winning a game and which teams acted like there is a lot more work to do. Collins' point was that the teams that expect to win and that understand the bigger picture are more likely to be successful than teams that get too excited about an early season victory.

To win the 2025 NBA championship, the 76ers must maintain this performance level and this health level for about 80 more games--and, based on the individual and collective resumes of their core players, there is no logical reason to expect them to come close to doing that: Embiid never advanced past the second round of the playoffs in his first eight seasons, Paul George has an 8-11 career playoff series record (including 0-3 in the Conference Finals), and Tyrese Maxey has a 3-4 career playoff series record. Maxey is young enough to develop into a consistently great playoff performer, but Embiid and George are who their resumes say they are.

Game Four: L.A. Lakers 115, Golden State Warriors 113

1) ESPN loves to hype up the Lakers and the Warriors, but entering today's action the Lakers were the seventh seeded team in the Western Conference, a half game ahead of the eighth seeded Warriors. That means that these are Play-In Tournament teams, not championship contenders. This should not surprise anyone: the Lakers have not finished higher than seventh in the regular season standings since they won the 2020 "bubble" championship, missing the playoffs once, losing in the first round twice, and making one fluky run to the Western Conference Finals; since 2020, the Warriors have finished higher than seventh just twice while winning one title (2022), missing the playoffs twice, and losing in the second round once.

Three weeks ago, I assessed the first 22 games of the J.J. Redick era, concluding that his 12-10 Lakers "have a mediocre offense and an atrocious defense. They have terrible rebounding numbers, and they often don't play hard. There is zero evidence that Redick is providing any kind of strategic advantage or that he is effective at motivating players to give maximum effort." In their next seven games, the Lakers went 4-3 and did nothing to refute the above analysis.

The Warriors started the season 10-3, and the ESPN hype machine nearly exploded, paying no attention to the reality that five of those wins were against Portland, Utah, New Orleans (twice), and Washington (the three worst teams in the Western Conference and the worst team in the league). The Warriors went 5-11 in their next 16 games, failing to score at least 100 points five times and giving up at least 108 points seven times, reaching a nadir in both directions on December 19 with a 144-93 loss to the Memphis Grizzlies.

2) The Lakers built a 55-52 halftime lead despite losing Anthony Davis to an ankle injury after seven scoreless minutes. The Lakers played better without Davis, who had a -7 plus/minus number during his cameo appearance, but this is small sample size theater, and not an indication that the Lakers would be better long-term without Davis, who is leading the team in scoring (26.6 ppg), rebounding (11.8 rpg), and blocked shots (2.2 bpg) this season. 

LeBron James led both teams with 19 first half points, while Stephen Curry topped the Warriors with 16 points. The Lakers outrebounded the Warriors 24-21 and committed just two turnovers while the Warriors had six turnovers. The Lakers also shot 9-9 from the free throw line while the Warriors were just 1-3 from the free throw line.

The Warriors narrowly outplayed the Lakers in a tightly contested second half, outscoring the Lakers 61-60, outrebounding the Lakers 23-17, and committing six turnovers while the Lakers committed seven turnovers, but the outcome was decided in the exciting final 22 seconds. Before dissecting the ebbs and flows of those last possessions, it should be noted that the Lakers led 104-94 with 3:27 remaining before a 13-5 Warriors run put the outcome in doubt. In other words, better execution by the Lakers could have sealed the win earlier.

The late drama began after Max Christie drained two free throws to put the Lakers up 111-107. The Warriors called a timeout, and then on the ensuing possession Stephen Curry drilled a right corner three pointer over James' outstretched arms. Austin Reaves hit two free throws to make the score 113-110, and the ESPN crew of Mike Breen, Doris Burke, and Richard Jefferson discussed the merits of intentionally fouling before the Warriors could attempt a tying three pointer. Burke noted that when Redick was a commentator he expressed his opinion that teams should always fall in this situation. The Warriors befuddled the Lakers by having multiple players cut through the paint (a distraction that a well-coached team would ignore, because a two pointer would not help a team that is down by three and has no timeouts left), and then Curry nailed a three pointer. Curry did not celebrate, because he knew that the game was tied with 6.3 seconds remaining, which meant that the Lakers had enough time to win the game in regulation. On the Lakers' last possession, Reaves drove from behind the three point line on the left wing all the way to the hoop to drop in the game-winning layup.

There is no doubt that this game had an exciting conclusion with Curry's two spectacular treys followed by Reaves' foray to the hoop, but--as noted above--the Warriors were 5-11 in their previous 16 games and the Lakers have not exactly been setting the world on fire. This game was entertaining and fun to watch, but in June 2025 we will not be looking back and saying that this was a pivotal point in determining who this season's champion will be.

James scored a team-high 31 points on 12-22 field goal shooting, and he had a game-high tying 10 assists. Reaves not only scored the game-winner, but he also had a triple double (26 points, team-high 10 rebounds, 10 assists). Rui Hachimura (18 points), Max Christie (16 points), and Dalton Knecht (13 points) were the Lakers' other double figure scorers.

Curry scored a game-high 38 points on 14-24 field goal shooting, including 8-15 from three point range. Andrew Wiggins had 21 points and a game-high 12 rebounds. Even with Curry, the Warriors are not a great offensive team--and, as the last possession highlighted (losing a game on a drive to the hoop from behind the three point line is suboptimal, to put it mildly), the Warriors are not a great defensive team, either. Being not great at either end of the court adds up to being a .500 team.

3) After spending most of his career missing a lot of games due to various injuries, Davis played a career-high 76 games last season and has only missed one game this season, so it will be interesting to see how long he is sidelined by the ankle injury that he suffered in this game. Speculating about how good the Lakers might be if Davis consistently stayed healthy is pointless unless/until he consistently stays healthy. In Davis' first 12 seasons, he played at least 70 games three times, and he played less than 65 games (the current standard to be eligible for postseason awards) seven times. Davis will turn 32 before the end of this season; is he going to find the fountain of youth/health now after not discovering it during his prime?

Game Five: Phoenix Suns 110, Denver Nuggets 100

1) Nikola Jokic is posting historic numbers this season, ranking second in the league in scoring (career-high 30.9 ppg), fourth in rebounding (12.5 rpg), and third in assists (9.7 rpg) while leading the league in three point field goal percentage (.514). When he is on the court, the Nuggets often look like a championship contender, but when he is not on the court the Nuggets often look like a Draft Lottery team. That explains why Jokic is averaging a career-high 37.1 mpg. The Nuggets have overcome injuries and a thin bench to post the fifth best record in the strong Western Conference.

The Suns entered Christmas Day with a 13-5 record when Kevin Durant played, and a 1-9 record when he did not play; the Suns are a finesse team that often gets pushed around, and they are not very good without Durant.

2) ESPN's Stephanie White correctly noted that Russell Westbrook has had a positive impact on the Nuggets because of the way that he pushes the pace and because of his playmaking. It is refreshing to listen to a commentator who does not make up nonsensical excuses to bash Westbrook, who has proven throughout his career that he is a great, loyal teammate who consistently plays hard. Westbrook entered the game averaging 12.0 ppg, 6.4 apg (second on the team), 4.1 rpg, and 1.7 spg (first on the team) while playing 25.9 mpg and coming off of the bench in 20 out of his first 27 games (the 36 year old is one of just four Nuggets to not miss a game this season). 

3) Devin Booker missed his third straight game, and the Suns were also without the services of Grayson Allen (who is in concussion protocol)--but they had Durant and Bradley Beal, which proved to be more than enough. The Suns built a 58-56 halftime lead by shooting 21-41 (.512) from the field while committing just four turnovers, a high level of offensive efficiency that compensated for being outrebounded 25-18. Durant and Beal scored 14 points each in the first half.

The Suns did not shoot well in the second half (20-46, .435), but they played uncharacteristically well defensively, holding the Nuggets to 44 points on 14-33 (.424) field goal shooting. The Suns had just three turnovers while the Nuggets had nine in the second half alone and 16 in the game. The Suns led by as many as 15 points in the second half, and they did not trail in the fourth quarter.

Denver blew out Phoenix 117-90 in Denver on December 23, holding the Suns to 33-83 (.398) field goal shooting and outrebounding the Suns 46-39; it is clear that game was very much on the Suns' minds during this game.

Durant and Bradley Beal tied for game-high scoring honors (27 points). Durant had a game-high six assists (tying teammates Jusuf Nurkic and Royce O'Neale, and Denver's Jamal Murray). Tyus Jones contributed 17 points and four assists, while Nurkic had eight points, and a team-high 13 rebounds. Jokic led the Nuggets with 25 points and a game-high 15 rebounds, but he had just two assists. Michael Porter Jr. scored 22 points, and Westbrook added 17 points, six rebounds, and a team-high +3 plus/minus number (he was the only Nugget with a positive plus/minus number).

4) One of my favorite plays from this game happened at the end of the first half. Jokic grabbed a defensive rebound with less than five seconds remaining, took a few dribbles, and launched a three pointer from just inside the half court line. What is so great about that? As mentioned above, Jokic is leading the league in three point field goal percentage, but instead of trying to protect his personal statistics he took that desperation heave because if it goes in then it helps his team and if it misses no harm is done because time will run out. There are many players who either will not take that desperation heave, or who make sure to wait until just after time expires before letting it go. Shane Battier once admitted that is the only selfish kind of play that he made during his career, because field goal percentage could matter at contract time.

Analysis of Previous Christmas Day Quintupleheaders:

Notes About the 2023 Christmas Day Quintupleheader (2023)

Notes About the 2022 Christmas Day Quintupleheader (2022)

Notes About the 2021 Christmas Day Quintupleheader (2021)

Notes About the 2020 Christmas Day Quintupleheader (2020)

Notes About the 2019 Christmas Day Quintupleheader (2019)

Several Stars Shine During Christmas Day Quintupleheader (2018)

Christmas Day Quintupleheader Recap (2012)

Comments and Notes About the Christmas Day Quintupleheader (2011)

Thoughts and Observations About the Christmas Day Quintupleheader (2010)

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posted by David Friedman @ 1:21 AM

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