20 Second Timeout

Evaluating the Kyrie Irving Trade

The Dallas Mavericks acquired Kyrie Irving and Markieff Morris from the Brooklyn Nets in exchange for Spencer Dinwiddie, Dorian Finney-Smith, a 2029 first round draft pick, and multiple second round draft picks.

Conventional NBA wisdom is that if any team can be considered the winner of a trade it would be the team that received the best player, even if the other team received several very good players. In basketball, a team fields just five players at a time--compared to nine in baseball and 11 in football--so a star can affect the outcome of a basketball game much more than a star can affect the outcome of a baseball game or a football game.

Kyrie Irving is an eight time All-Star who has made the All-NBA Team three times, won the 2012 Rookie of the Year Award, and made significant contributions as the Cleveland Cavaliers won the 2016 NBA title. He is averaging 27.1 ppg this season, and he has averaged at least 26.9 ppg each season since joining the Brooklyn Nets prior to the 2019-20 campaign. There is no question that he is the best player involved in the Brooklyn-Dallas trade.

Irving is also the first player traded in the middle of a season during which he is averaging at least 27 ppg, at least 5 apg, and at least 5 rpg. That tells you that he is perhaps the greatest player involved in a midseason trade--or that there is more to Irving's story than what the above numbers and honors suggest.

Consider these numbers: 60, 67, 20, 54, 29. Those are Irving's total number of games played for the previous five seasons (he has played in 40 of 53 possible games so far this season). Irving played less than 70 games in eight of his first 11 NBA seasons. He has a track record for being unavailable, unpredictable, and unreliable. 

Irving missed eight games this season after the Nets suspended him for his unrepentant antisemitism. Irving is portrayed as an intelligent, thoughtful person, but promoting antisemitism and entertaining the notion that the Earth is flat are signs of--at best--misguided thinking, not intelligence and thoughtfulness. 

Nets players are unlikely to admit it publicly, but Irving's departure is likely a relief for them, because they no longer have to wonder and worry about if he will show up for games, nor will they have to explain/excuse his absences and his bizarre viewpoints.

Mavericks players may be excited about Irving's talent, but Irving has worn out his welcome with each of his three teams--Cleveland, Boston, Brooklyn--and it would be surprising if he does not wear out his welcome in Dallas.

Could Irving team with MVP candidate Luka Doncic to lead Dallas to the NBA Finals and maybe even an NBA championship? From a talent standpoint that may seem superficially plausible--Doncic and Irving could be a fearsome duo on offense--but from an overall standpoint that seems unlikely, in no small part because of the depth and defense that Dallas gave up to acquire Irving; Finney-Smith is an elite defender, and Dinwiddie is at least a solid defender who is also capable of being a big-time scorer. It is more likely that the Mavericks fail to repeat last year's run to the Western Conference Finals than that they vault from the fifth seed (their current spot in the standings) to the NBA Finals.

From a skill set standpoint, Irving is an elite three level scorer who is an above average playmaker and a good rebounder for a guard. His ballhandling is very good, though somewhat overrated by those who value flash over substance. Irving's defense is subpar in general, though in short spurts he has demonstrated the ability to be solid (which raises the question of why he is not more consistent at that end of the court). Irving is a small player who is frequently injured.

It is true that Irving's presence will make it difficult for opponents to trap Doncic without getting burned, but the Doncic-Irving backcourt will light up the scoreboard at both ends of the court as opponents will now have a tasty choice of which guard to "hunt" when chasing matchups during playoff series that are all about matchups.

The players who the Nets received are far from being chumps. Dinwiddie is a former Net who averaged 20.6 ppg for Brooklyn in 2019-20. For the past two seasons, he has been a solid second or third option for Dallas. He can replace most of the scoring that Irving provided for the Nets, if not the playmaking and shot creation (both for himself and for his teammates). Finney-Smith is a prototypical "3 and D" wing who was Dallas' best perimeter defender.

"Stat gurus" discount the importance of chemistry, but something can be real and significant even it is not easily quantified. In this trade, the Nets gave up talent to obtain dependability, depth, and players who are coachable. Dinwiddie and Finney-Smith will not be in the headlines for the wrong reasons, and they will not do or say things that their teammates will then be asked to explain. Until Kevin Durant returns to action, the Nets are going nowhere fast--but if Durant can regain (and keep) his health then this deal improves their chances by stabilizing the roster. The Nets still lack size--and that will be fatal during the playoffs--but Irving's departure will prove to be addition by subtraction (unless Durant whines his way out of town, in which case the Nets instantly become irrelevant).

Speaking of Durant, he fled Oklahoma City in 2016 after the Thunder pushed the Golden State Warriors to seven games in the Western Conference Finals. Instead of embracing the challenge of trying to beat the Warriors, he won two Finals MVPs while leading the Warriors to back to back titles, but then he decided to team up with Irving in Brooklyn--a decision that, by any objective analysis, turned out disastrously, as Durant and the Nets failed to advance past the second round of the playoffs with that duo on the roster. No one should feel sorry for Durant, because he could have contended for titles alongside Russell Westbrook in Oklahoma City, and then he could have kept contending for titles in Golden State, but he chose to take a different path alongside a player who has fomented turmoil throughout his career. It would not be surprising if Durant now asks to be traded--something he did in the previous offseason before withdrawing the request--nor would it be surprising if Durant is as discontented with his new team as he became with each of his other teams.

By demanding a trade just before the trade deadline and making it clear that otherwise he would leave as a free agent, Irving did not give the Nets much leverage, so the Nets did quite well to obtain two starters, a first round draft pick, and multiple second round draft picks for a disgruntled and often unavailable star whose only sustained playoff success happened while playing alongside LeBron James. The Mavericks already reached the Western Conference Finals without Irving, so from their standpoint this trade is "NBA Finals or bust"--Irving may not stay with the team long term, and he almost certainly will become a distraction sooner rather than later, so we will find out in the 2023 playoffs if this was a good deal for them. On the other hand, the Nets still have enough pieces to do some damage in the playoffs while also acquiring enough assets to have some flexibility to make moves if Durant jumps ship. Each team received what it wanted, but I would be more nervous if I were a Mavericks fan than if I were a Nets fan; the Nets had a short championship window already given Durant's age and injury history, but the Mavericks are playing roulette with the roster surrounding a superstar entering his prime. The only time the Mavericks won a championship, they had one superstar surrounded by very good complementary players who defended well, as opposed to relying on two offensive juggernauts who are below average defensively. Dallas Coach Jason Kidd knows that very well, because he was the point guard for those 2011 championship Mavericks. It will be interesting to see if Irving respects Kidd enough to curb the behaviors that created such havoc in each of his previous stops.

Labels: Brooklyn Nets, Dallas Mavericks, Dorian Finney-Smith, Kevin Durant, Kyrie Irving, Luka Doncic, Markieff Morris, Spencer Dinwiddie

posted by David Friedman @ 8:39 AM

2 comments